Futures scenario in

science learning
By David Lloyd, Annastasia Vanderhout, Lisa Lloyd and David Atkins
In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science
contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing
can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students lifeworlds past,
present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for cognitive, affective and
ethical learning. This article describes how pre-service teachers who have undertaken two
general studies undergraduate courses went about constructing futures scenarios.

Background
While futures scenario writing is traditionally the province
of futurists, it has become more common in recent
times for scientists and other professionals to use this
approach as a way of exploring possible, probable and
preferable futures. For example, Tim Flannery, Ian Lowe,
and Barrie Pittock all value futures scenarios as a tool in
their work as scientists and science communicators. For
science educators who are interested in emphasising
meaning as well as understanding, futures scenario
writing is a valuable tool in the learning process.
Tytler (2007, p. 26) states,

[i]n a science education incorporating matters
of concern, the wider ethical, social and human
questions intrude naturally into science topics.
Roth and Dsautels (2002, p. 4) suggest that.
instead of making the focus on the teaching
and learning of disciplinary knowledge, the
empowerment of citizens to become critical
social actors is now conceived as the goal
towards which science should strive.
In our work in developing futures scenarios we
value integrative and transformative learning which
recognises the need for narratives in addition to facts,
stories in addition to theories so that the human drama
is usefully or adequately portrayed and understood
(Ogilvy, 2002, p. 26), and acted upon.
In this article we describe our experiences in developing
futures scenarios in two science contexts, Space
science and atmospheric science and climate change.
Firstly, we define futures scenarios, secondly, develop
a rationale for their use in science learning and, finally,
describe their construction and implementation. We
intersperse extracts from our own work and that of
colleagues to illustrate various aspects of the futures
scenario writing process.

What are Futures Scenarios?

Futures scenarios are stories about plausible future
worlds. They are not a tool for making predictions
(Ogilvy, 2002). They are simply ways of exploring
possibilities and providing a way of having a more
imaginative and coherent conversation about the
future (Schwartz in Ogilvy, 2002). They are stories with a

18

teachingscience

logical plot and narrative based upon our knowledge

of history, current trends, understanding of the way
systems work (the science) and the needs and desires
of individuals and societies (the socio-political). They
include images of the future and an account of the
flow of events leading to such future conditions
(Raskin et al, 2002, p. 14).
Futures scenario writing is a work of analysis,
imagination and engagement. As analysis, it describes
the historic roots, current dynamics and future perils of
world development, and requires (among other things)
an understanding of the natural world the science. As
imagination, it offers narrative accounts of alternative
possible futures, and considers their implications for
present actions the socio-political. As engagement,
it aims to advance scenarios by identifying strategies,
agents for change and values for a new agenda
ethical action (Raskin, 2002). Futures scenario writing is
about navigating life by looking forwards rather than
backwards and, as Toulmin (1990, p. 2) points out,
available futures are not just those that we can
passively forecast, but those that we can actively
create.... They are futures which do not simply
happen of themselves, but can be made to
happen, if we meanwhile adopt wise attitudes
and policies.
Scenario Excerpts 1 to 8 have been taken from our
and fellow students work and illustrate various aspects
of our take on futures scenarios.

Why Futures Scenarios in

Science Learning?
Futures scenario writing encourages the writer to
connect their science learning to more than the
technical interest and external world of things, and
systems of things understandings of the physiosphere
and biosphere. Contemporary science educators
and scientists, particularly those who see science
as contributing to the practical and emancipatory
interests of students and their communities, see this
broadening of science as being a necessary aspect
of science education (Fensham, 2003; Hodson, 2003;
Lloyd, 2008; Lloyd & Wallace, 2004; Rennie, 2005; Roth &
Dsautels, 2002; Tytler, 2007). There is, according to Ian
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Features
Lowe (2005), a need to provide learning in the science
classroom that includes the social and ecological
characteristics of place or region and promotes
social learning.
We identify here three interrelated reasons why futures
scenario writing is valuable in science learning:
1. It addresses students interests and concerns and
connects their science learning to their lifeworlds.
Most, if not all, current environmental and social
issues/interests, such as global warming and space
exploration, require scientific understanding as a
key element of their resolution and advancement.
These issues/interests are certain to be of concern
to students and influence their personal and
collective wellbeing and future lives (Eckersley,
2002; Hicks, 1996, 2002; Lloyd, 2002). OSullivan
(2002, p.5) suggests that,

without the development of a critical
understanding and creative vision, despair
has the capacity to overwhelm.
By developing normative futures scenarios, that
is scenarios about the way the world should
be (Ogilvy, 2002), or even developing dystopic
scenarios which students can actively work to avoid
(Slaughter, 1987) students shift from being passive
victims of the future to active actors in its creation.
2. D
 eveloping futures thinking (foresight).
This is a necessary tool for the 21st century,
the capacity to make decisions in the present
by calling upon past experiences and future
expectations/desires. The latter aspect is relatively
more important in times of rapid change, when the
past does not necessarily offer indicators for solving
current and anticipated problems. In such times,
the development of foresight, such as skills in futures
scenario planning and implementation, becomes
a necessary aspect of deep learning and
responsible living (Laszlo, 2001; Raskin et al,
2002; Slaughter, 1995a).
3. Students develop high-order integrative thinking.
As futures scenarios elicit and communicate
speculative thoughts and imaginative ideas
about future developments, they require the skills
of synthesising data from a range of sources,
and generating discussion, critique, and shared
understandings. They develop higher-order
thinking skills (Blooms cognitive learning domains
of creating, knowing, understanding, analysing,
applying and evaluating) in an extended present,
and provide a context in which new understandings
can be usefully applied (Lloyd, 2009). Students skills
and abilities are brought to bear upon open-ended
issues that need resolution for futures worth living for,
and they must learn to construct knowledge as well
as use current knowledge.

How to Create Futures Scenarios in

a Science Learning Context
Futures scenarios need imagination to articulate
alternative pathways of development (Raskin et al
2002, p. 14) and its author(s) may use any of the tools
of the writer, artist, architect, or philosopher (Amara,
1981, p. 26). Scenario Excerpts 1 and 2 illustrate
imaginative ways of telling stories. However, writing a
succinct and informative scenario can be a complex
and daunting task for any author. What data are vital?
Volume 56 | Number 2 | June 2010

What genre should be used? Will the data meet the

scenario needs? How can the emotional, aesthetic
and spiritual needs of the individual, the values
structures of communities, and the knowledge
provided by the natural and social sciences, all be
valued? Rich authentic futures scenarios use both
the quantitative (scientific) and the qualitative worlds
of individuals and communities.
A KRILLS DIARY 25 January 2056
Strange things are happening here in the Southern Ocean
and I feel it necessary to start a diary as I am unsure how
much longer our species will survive. To begin, let me
introduce myself. My name is Earl and I am a Krill, or sometimes
referred to as a low life. My family have lived in the Southern
Ocean for as long as we can remember but vast numbers of
our species have gone missing and are feared dead. Over
the past eighty years our population has been reduced by
80% and it is my mission to find out why. This is a dangerous
mission as starvation is a big threat among other species due
to decline in our population. It has been heard on the ice
caps that the penguins are blaming the seals and the seals
are blaming the whales. The only species that has an alibi is
the phytoplankton they are vegetarians. However I rule no
species out my mission is to look in every deep corner of
this ocean and solve this mystery. If I fail to find a solution, it is
feared that this will be the end of our species and who knows
what will happen to the other animals that rely on us for their
food wish me luck!

Scenario Excerpt 1: The introduction to Lisas scenario,

set fifty years in the future. It is written from an animals
perspective on global warming and the influence it is
having on Antarctic ecosystems. This scenario has been
written as a story to engage upper-primary students in the
science of global warming.

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A reflection of the last fifty years we must never forget.

Poet or prophet?
I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of rugged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel sea,
Her beauty and her terror
The wide brown land for me.
Dorothea Mackellar (1885-1968): 1904
Would Dorothea Mackellar ever have guessed that the
Australia she described in her reflection on her beloved
country almost 150 years ago would become such a terrifying
reality within the next century and beyond, with the effects of
global warming devastating our long-envied lifestyle to such
an extent that it was no longer possible to identify anything
that remotely resembled the great Aussie way of life?

Scenario Excerpt 2: Annas introduction to a future scenario

of Australias climate in the Year 2050. It uses Dorothea
Mackellars poem to critique global warming and its
effects on Australia.

teachingscience

19

We have adopted a six-step approach to futures

scenario writing:
1. D
 ecide on the key question for the scenario;
2. K
 now the present and the past of the system
of interest;
3. Identify the fields of change and the actors;
4. S elect the most important fields of change
and actors;
5. Identify the scenarios to be developed; and
6. D
 escribe the scenarios and bring them to life
(Snoek, 2003). Table 1 illustrates this process for
one of our scenario themes, Space Travel:
Thinking Ahead.

STEP

While this sequence develops in a linear way, we have

found that there are many backward and forward
movements between the steps. Our experience has
also shown that while the initial scaffolding is useful and
necessary, particularly for the novice, individual writers
are likely to find their own methods that work for them.
Researching and experimenting with different methods/
tools is the best way to find what works because
everybody has different ways in which they learn and
visualise. One starting point that we have found useful
is to read a variety of scenarios that are illustrative of
the required product. Exemplary examples from past
classes, or those often found in journals such as the
New Internationalist are appropriate.
PROCESS

EXAMPLE: SPACE TRAVEL THINKING AHEAD

Decide on the key

question for the
scenario

Space Travel: Thinking Ahead

Know the present and

the past of the area of
interest

The solar system and beyond

Space vehicle development

Select the fields of

change and the actors

Selecting the most

important fields of
change and the actors

Population, economy,
environment, equity,
technology, conflict, resource
availability, tourism, business,
spirit of adventure, food
production, local and global
governance, globalisation,
energy, lifestyle.

Identifying the scenarios

to be developed

Utopic, dystopic
Conventional worlds,
barbarization, transformation

Describing the
scenarios and bringing
them to life

Personal journal, letter,

newspaper article, report,
once upon a time story

Table 1: Six Steps in developing futures scenarios (Adapted

from Snoek, 2003).

of their content and assessment. They were: Space

Travel: Thinking Ahead for the Astronomy and the
Universe course, and How will we live with our climate
in the future? for the Atmosphere and Climate course.
Both courses generated challenges that individuals and
communities have to address to achieve futures that
are worth living for. For examples see Scenario Excerpts
1, 2, 5, and 6.

Step 2: Know the present and the past of the

area of interest
This second step is about getting to know the science
of things and systems (astronomical phenomena, the
challenges of space flight, how the atmosphere works,
weather and climate etc. See Scenario Excerpt 8; the
needs of communities (energy, infrastructure, materials
etc. See Scenario Excerpts 5 and 8), the cultural and
world view attributes that determine what is valued and
what is ethical (ethics of space travel, human impact
on the atmosphere, ecological footprints) and the
spiritual needs of the individual (personal wellbeing,
ethical action, living sustainably, satisfying curiosity,
building a career. See Scenario Excerpts 4, 5, 6 and 7).
This second step involves exploring the literature that
describes the various processes associated with the
scenario topic, so that the scenario is primarily based
upon present understandings of science and sociology/
psychology. It is important to ensure that the scenarios
are grounded in established ideas rather than fantasy
or science fiction.
One of the authors, when writing a futures scenario on
global warming, investigated the types of activities that
contribute to increased concentrations of atmospheric
carbon dioxide, as well as the effects of these increases
on the planet and its inhabitants. For the space travel
scenario it was a matter of researching the ethics of
space travel, conditions needed to sustain life, the
characteristics of planets and satellites within our solar
system, the processes involved in terra-forming another
planet and present and emerging future space travel
technologies.
Step 2 is the one that takes most of the unit time.
It is about coming to an understanding of the factors
that are important to the scenario question. We have
used futures wheels (Slaughter, 1995 and Figure 1),
reading logs, concept maps and other devices
to organise data that inform the scenario writing.
We try to ensure that both the subjective worlds of
the individual (me) and collective (us) and the
objective world of things (the material world) are
included. We found footnotes useful in maintaining the
flow of a story if the detailed descriptions generated in

Step 1: Decide on the key question for

the scenarios
The preliminary step is to decide on the key question
(issue or trend) that is to be explored through the
scenario process. This key question needs to be specific
enough to provide a focus that can be explored in the
time available, but not so specific that it does not allow
for some choice and creativity. In a science learning
environment it is not hard to find issues to explore. They
can be identified by the students, or may arise from
the mandated curriculum it is likely that these two
approaches will produce similar lists. It is important,
however, to connect to participants interests/concerns
and life worlds, and for the scenario process to be,
if possible, more than a merely academic exercise
taking action is a necessary empowering step. In our
case, the scenario topics arose from the subject matter
of the courses being offered and were a central aspect

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teachingscience

Figure 1: Futures wheel used to develop and organise ideas

for writing a futures scenario.

Volume 56 | Number 2 | June 2010

Features
this second phase were too long-winded or disrupted
its flow. This approach provides the reader with the
opportunity to explore ideas further, and the assessor
with evidence of research.

Steps 3 and 4: Select the field of change

and the actors
These steps are about deciding on the factors that
are likely to impact on the future and then deciding
which will be of most importance for the scenario under
construction. Raskin et al (2002) chose population,
economy, environment, equity, technology and
conflict as their key variables to build six world futures
scenarios. For the future space travel scenario students
chose a combination of space flight technology,
resources availability, population trends, technological
advances, equity, business (including tourism in
space) and the spirit of adventure as drivers of their
scenarios. For the climate scenario, common variables
were environmental health, population growth,
food production, local and global governance,
globalisation, energy use and production, and lifestyle
(including consumerism).

Step 5: Identifying the scenario to be developed

The way the scenario develops will depend upon
the key fields of change selected and the direction
they take. As there are an infinite number of possible
futures, it is usual to select the more extreme ends
of the continuum in exploring possibilities. Taking the
more optimistic stance may lead to normative/utopic
scenarios of transformation, while the more pessimistic
stance will create dystopias Laszlo (2001) in his book,
Macroshift, uses this approach. In an educational
setting, we would suggest caution with dystopian
scenarios as they can generate feelings of despair
and hopelessness. However, they can also be used
to motivate us to act, so that the scenario does not
eventuate. Another strategy is to endeavour to provide
a positive (normative) outcome for the scenario by
including a number of solutions to the problem.
In this way the reader is left with a positive outlook
for the future.
It is usual to produce a series of scenarios for any
given set of fields of change. For example, the Global
Scenario Group (Raskin et al, 2002), produced six
scenarios in three groups of two: Conventional Worlds
(Market Forces and Policy Reform), Barbarization
(Breakdown and Fortress World) and Great Transitions
(Eco-Communalism and New Sustainability). We have
not tried to coordinate such a complex task in our work,
but as each member of the class shares their stories
with colleagues, there is an opportunity to listen to
and discuss a range of possible futures.

Step 6: Describing the scenario and bringing

it to life
The final step is to write the scenario(s) and bring
them to life. To make a scenario challenging and
recognisable, it should be brought to life by visualising it
in a particular context and using an appropriate genre
(letter, newspaper article, report, once upon a time
story etc.) for the narrative. One of the authors finds
newspaper articles and journal entries a particularly
good method, as illustrated in Scenario Excerpt 2.
Excerpt 3 uses advertising for a space holiday and
Excerpt 4 a personal journal to frame the scenario.
Here, there is an opportunity to use the creative
imagination to write interesting and engaging stories,
as illustrated in Scenario Excerpts 1 and 2. These
scenarios can also be used to generate policy changes
and action plans. At the personal level, the scenarios
Volume 56 | Number 2 | June 2010

can help individuals make decisions about their own

lifestyles and commitment to future generations. The
action phase will not be described here, but we stress
the importance of the scenarios being used as more
than simply an academic exercise.
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Scenario Excerpt 3: The introduction to a futures scenario

that uses commerce as one of its primary fields of change.

Kimberlys Life in Space

As I pack my bags I am filled with mixed emotions. Part of
me is excited to return to Earth, but another part is slightly
saddened that because of my impending retirement I will
not be returning to this orbiting, artificial environment that
I have come to call home for the past few years. I am also
apprehensive of the fact that on this trip back to Earth, several
children will be taking their first-ever steps onto unfamiliar soil.
Now that my bag is packed I ponder the reception they and
I will receive the questions, comments and assumptions;
are we ready for this? I was well prepared when I arrived
at the Hub, I had undergone several months of simulated
environmental conditions - controlled temperatures, artificial
lighting and gravity, but it is so much more difficult to simulate
the sheer beauty and uniqueness of Earth. My students and I
gazed at it from our manufactured world daily but I doubt that
they comprehended its true magnificence. Have I adequately
prepared these Martian children for this? I think I have just as
many questions now as I did when I first docked at Olympus
Mons Space Hub. But all I can think about now is how soon
can I get a Big Mac?

Scenario Excerpt 4: An excerpt from Kimberleys Life in

Space illustrates how material, personal and social needs
are intertwined.

Diary-type entries, with brief dated notes throughout

the scenario, are suitable for younger students, as
this approach requires less planning during the initial
stages and aids the writer in developing the skills
required for writing recounts. Picture stories with
captions can also work.
Having selected a genre, the next step is a detailed
plan that includes all the information gleaned from
the research process. Some of this material may need
to be investigated more fully as the writing stage
progresses, while other information may be omitted or
altered as the writing takes form. It is useful to begin
with an outcome (e.g. what the future might look like
in fifty years), and then work backwards from this point,
filling in the gaps until the present is reached this is
called back-casting.
We conclude this section with examples that illustrate
the inclusive nature of the futures scenarios that is,
valuing the personal and cultural (worldview/ethics) as
well as the scientific. An excerpt from Kimberleys Life
in Space (Scenario Excerpt 4) illustrates how material,
personal and social needs are intertwined. Scenario
Excerpt 5 illustrates how the social needs of actors are
included and Scenario Excerpts 6 and 7, reflect the
influence of ethics on future worlds. Scenario Excerpt
8 illustrates the integration of scientific understandings
into the stories.

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21

Presentation to the Students of Ulan Bator University,

New Agra, Mars. 3rd July 2057
Although, 2031 was only twenty-six years ago, it seems like an
eternity since I first arrived on Mars. The changes that have
taken place here are amazing. I first arrived here on the 24th
of September 2031 and had planned on only staying for two
four-year tours of duty. Afterwards, I had intended on returning
to Earth to continue work on new spacecraft propulsion
systems for NASA.
There were many reasons for humans leaving Earth to journey
into Space. Some were to ensure the survival of future
generations of humans because of increased threats to Earth
living due to pollution, loss of biodiversity, disease, terrorism,
war, and the possible destruction of Earth by asteroids or
comets. Furthermore, in Space there are unlimited areas to
create new human habitations. Space travel provides a sense
of adventure for humans explore the far reaches of Space, it
satisfies their curiosity when new discoveries are made, and
there is access to unlimited natural resources.4
New Plymouth, established in 2027, is located approximately
600 km from the South extremity Pole. The site had been
selected because the polar region contained so much
underground frozen water that, if brought to the surface and
thawed, it would cover the whole of Mars with water 11 m
deep.5 This ensured a plentiful supply of water for the colony.
Initially, the colony had been constructed by connecting
more than four dozen Habitat Modules together. Late in 2028,
the first buildings were constructed using materials found on
Mars.
4
5

See National Space Society (2006).

See NASA (2007), Mars South Pole Ice Deep and Wide.

Scenario Excerpt 5: An extract from one of our scenarios

that illustrates the social needs of the actors.
Our Extra Crispy Climate
Did you order the Original Recipe or Extra Crispy?- Foghorn
Leghorn, Space Jam (1996)1
It seems that during the 20th century our baby boomer
parents were very much like Foghorn Leghorn, one of my
favourite childhood cartoon characters. They got so caught
up in the fun and excitement of being competitive and
winning that trophy of success that they didnt realise how
unsustainable their obsession with success was. In typical
parent fashion, they had pre-ordered us a steaming plate of
extra hot climate, never even bothering to ask us what we
would like to eat. They chose an Extra Crispy world for us
to live in, over the Original Recipe climate that they had
enjoyed.
Although this was always my favourite Space Jam quote, I ensured
my memory was correct by finding it on The Internet Movie Database.
(IMDb, 2008)
1

Scenario Excerpt 6: Louise critiques current lifestyles

and community values in her futures scenario on
global warming.
Space Travel
The immanent arrival of a new generation brought such
controversy that the UNIA had to step in to accommodate
the needs of the new breed. There were concerns about the
health care, development and education of the children.
There were also oncerns so minute that they were not even
considered until the problem arose, such as how do we
specify place of birth? It also sparked fear in some people
back on Earth, with claims that these babies would be
mutants or Martians and somehow different to us. The
term Spacism was created, a prejudice against people not
born on this planet and those who have spent long periods of
time away from Earth. Colonising Mars created more ethical
dilemmas than imagined, so a whole new governing body
was established to provide for the needs of our committed
inter-galactic citizens.

Scenario Excerpt 7: Kyms scenario on space travel

illustrates how the personal and the ethical are important in
a futures scenario.

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Marcuss story about a future settlement on Mars

Water is found on Mars on the surface, in deep deposits, or
trapped in sand. It is collected from the surface or mined. The
water is then filtered and sterilised before being stored for later
use. All water used on the planet is recycled.
To supply most of the oxygen to the settlement, water is
collected from the surface, or mined and then melted. Using
power produced by solar panels or small nuclear reactors,
the water is then split into hydrogen and oxygen a process
called electrolysis, which would be familiar to many science
students. The oxygen produced is then mixed with argon or
nitrogen (also available on Mars) to create an air mixture more
similar to that found on Earth. The hydrogen gas produced in
this way can be used for fuel, or mixed with carbon dioxide
(found in the Martian atmosphere) to produce methane gas
and more water.

Scenario Excerpt 8: This excerpt from Marcuss futures

scenario illustrates how science understandings are
integrated into a space adventure.

Assessing the Learning

We do not have space here to detail the assessment
process, but our experience is that it can be an exciting
and rewarding culmination to the writing process.
Providing that criteria for assessment are clearly
articulated at the start, excess anxiety concerning the
quality of the assignment can be avoided. We have
used formative and performance approaches to
assessment and set criteria that ensure the valuing of
the sciences, the politics/policies/ethics of communities
and the wellbeing of individuals, as well as the quality
of the written presentation.

Summary and Conclusion

In summary, futures scenarios are not just imaginary
descriptions of the future. They are possible futures
based on imaginable possibilities, related to what we
know of the past and the present (Masini, 1993) and are
cognisant of scientific, social and cultural knowledge.
We contend that futures scenario writing not only helps
to develop a deeper understanding of our world, it
also acts as a mechanism for transforming behaviours
in order to bring about more sustainable ways of living.
As one author said, It has definitely caused me to think
about my actions on a daily basis, which has ultimately
led to a revision in my behaviour.

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About the Authors:

Masini, E. B. (1993). Why futures studies? London, Grey Seal.

Maslow, A. H. (1964). Religions, values, and peak experiences. New
York, Penguin Books.

David Lloyd, Lecturer in Science Education,

School of Education, University of South Australia.

Ogilvy, J. A. (2002). Creating better futures: Scenario planning as a

tool for a better tomorrow. New York, Oxford University Press.

Annastasia Vanderhout, Graduating Teacher

(at the time of writing), School of Education,
University of South Australia.

OSullivan, E. (2002). The project and vision of transformative

education: Integral transformative learning. In E. OSullivan,
A. Morrell & M. OConnor (Eds.), Expanding the boundaries
of transformative learning: Essays on theory and praxis.
New York, Palgrave.

Lisa Lloyd, Graduating Teacher (at the time

of writing), School of Education, University of
South Australia.

Raskin, P., Banuri, T., Gallopin, G., Gutman, P., Hammond, A., Kates,
R., et al. (2002). Great transition: The promise and lure of the times
ahead. Boston, Stockholm Environmental Institute.

David Atkins, Teacher Education Student (at the

time of writing), School of Education, University
of South Australia.

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