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MAY 30, 2016

TO:

INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM:

BRUCE DONISTHORPE, BWD GLOBAL

RE:

NEW MEXICO DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY LIKELY VOTER SURVEY


PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RACE

Our recently-completed survey of 1,455 likely voters in the 2016 June Democratic Primary
election conducted May 25-26, 2016 shows Hillary Clinton is poised to capture New Mexico on
the June 7 primary election. Her trend line is heading into the mid-50s at this point.
QUESTION: If the Democratic Presidential Primary election was held today, would you vote
for Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
N=1,455, 2.5% Margin of Error

Hillary Clinton 53.3%


Bernie Sanders 27.6%
Undecided
19.0%

Comments: Clinton is over 50% and has a comfortable lead at this point. The high undecided
voter ratio very likely includes voters who have hesitations about Clinton and have not decided
to vote or support the Sanders candidacy.
Since many of Sanders voters are off-the-grid we fully expect Bernie to close the gap on
election day as many of his voters are hard to contact via our polling methods and challenges
involved in automatic dialing. We plan to use cell phone calling in the general election cycle.
Hillary Clinton started this campaign with better name recognition than her opponent and that
has helped her campaign numbers in our survey. Nevertheless, with a large number of surveys
and the known demographics of the voting population samples in this poll, there are several
factors in Clintons favor in this election, among them:

Gender:
o Clinton leads 57%-27% among Females, with 16% undecided.
o Clinton leads 57%-29% among Males, with 14% undecided.
Age:
o Clintons largest lead is among older voters including Senior citizens (65+)
with a 59%-25% lead and 50-64 age group where she leads 57%-30%.
o Younger categories are better for Sanders, but based on respondents with a
track record of voting in presidential primaries, Clinton still has the lead on
our survey of 48%-38% among 18-34s and 49%-35% among 35-49s..
Ethnicity:
o Clinton has a large lead among Hispanic voters (61%-21%) with almost 18%
remaining undecided at this point.
o Among Anglo Democrats, Clinton leads by a 45%-37% margin, with 18%
undecided.
Past Primary Voters:
o About 57% of the voters in our sample have voted in either the 2012 or 2014
Democratic primaries, and among that group of voters, Clinton leads by a
61%-28% margin, with 11% undecided.
o Among non-primary voters, Clintons support drops to about 50% while
Sanders stays at the 28% mark while about 22% are undecided.
Region:
o ABQ Metro (Bernalillo, Sandoval and Valencia counties):
Clinton leads by a 51%-28% margin with 21% undecided.
o Northern NM (Colfax, Guadalupe, Los Alamos, Rio Arriba, San Miguel,
Santa Fe and Taos counties):
Clinton leads with 64% to Sanders 29% with 7% undecided.
o East Side (Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Harding, Lea, Lincoln, Otero, Quay,
Roosevelt, Torrance and Union counties):
Clinton has a 40%-16% lead with 44% of voters undecided.
o Dona Ana + SW New Mexico (Catron, Dona Ana, Grant, Hidalgo, Luna,
Sierra and Socorro counties):
Clinton leads 57%-29% with 14% undecided.
o NW New Mexico (Cibola, McKinley and San Juan counties):
Clinton leads 48%-31% with 21% undecided.
Ideology
o Clinton leads all 4 groups:
Progressives: Hillary is ahead 51%-36% with 13% undecided.
Liberals: Clinton leads 70%-25% with 5% undecided.
Moderates: Clinton is ahead 57%-29% with 14% undecided.
Conservatives: Clinton leads 43%-33% with 24% undecided.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: BWD Global of Albuquerque, New Mexico conducted the survey
using automated phone dialing methods utilizing established demographic methodological
standards to 1,455 registered voting households with a known voting history throughout the
State. Surveys were conducted using this method on May 25 & 26, 2015 between 6 pm and 9
pm, MDT. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to
ensure that responses accurately reflect the populations makeup by factors such as age, sex,
region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling
error for this survey is 2.5% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this
survey.