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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 6:00AM

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of May 23, 2016 through May 29, 2016 are among a national sample of 14,797 adults aged 18 and over,
including 12,969 registered voters (+/- 1.2%), 3,569 registered Republican voters (+/-2.2%) and 4,227 registered Democratic voters
(+/-2.0%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.


TOPLINE RESULTS

Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

Foreign
The
Health Jobs and the
No


Policy
environment Terrorism Immigration
care
Economy
Education Other answer

5/23—5/29
4
8
13
7
15
36
10
5
1

5/16 – 5/22
4
8
13
6
16
36
12
5
1

5/9 – 5/15
4
9
12
7
16
35
11
5
1
5/2 – 5/8
4
9
12
7
15
36
12
5
1

4/25-5/1
4
9
14
7
16
33
11
6
1

4/18-4/24
4
9
14
8
15
32
11
6
1

4/11-4/17
4
8
16
7
15
32
11
5
1

4/4—4/10
4
8
17
8
14
31
11
6
1

3/28 – 4/3
5
8
19
7
15
32
10
5
1

3/21 – 3/27
4
8
18
7
13
32
10
5
1

3/14 – 3/20
4
9
12
7
15
36
11
5
1

3/7 – 3/13
4
8
13
8
16
35
10
6
1

2/29 – 3/6
4
9
13
7
16
35
11
5
1
2/22 – 2/28
5
8
14
7
16
34
10
5
1

2/15 – 2/21
5
8
16
7
15
33
10
5
1

2/8 – 2/14
4
8
16
8
14
34
10
5
1

2/1 – 2/7
5
9
15
7
16
32
10
5
-

1/25 – 1/31
5
9
17
8
13
32
10
5
-

1/18 – 1/24
4
8
19
7
15
33
10
5
1

1/11 – 1/17
5
8
21
8
13
29
10
4
1

1/4 – 1/10
5
8
23
8
13
28
8
5
1

12/28-1/3
6
8
23
8
14
27
9
5
1














Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2—5/8
4/25—5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Republican Democrat Independent No answer

5/23—5/29
5/16—5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

Strongly disapprove
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
-
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-
1
1
1
-
1
1
1

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]

5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]


Hillary Clinton Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Don’t know
No answer
5/23—5/29
53
-
42
5
1
5/16 – 5/22
51
-
42
7
-
5/9 - 5/15
54
-
40
5
-
5/2 – 5/8
53
-
41
5
-
4/25-5/1
54
-
40
6
1
4/18-4/24
52
-
42
6
-
4/11-4/17
50
-
43
7
-
4/4—4/10
49
-
43
7
1
3/28 – 4/3
51
-
42
6
1
3/21 – 3/27
49
-
43
8
-
3/14 – 3/20
53
-
41
6
1
3/7 – 3/13
54
-
41
5
-
2/29 – 3/6
55
-
38
7
1
2/22 – 2/28
51
-
41
8
1
2/15 – 2/21
51
-
40
9
1
2/8 – 2/14
50
-
40
9
1
2/1 – 2/7
51
1
39
8
1
1/25 – 1/31
50
2
39
8
1
1/18 – 1/24
51
2
37
9
1
1/11 – 1/17
52
1
36
9
2
1/4 – 1/10
52
2
37
8
1
12/28 – 1/3
53
2
36
8
1
From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

5/23—5/29
5/16– 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
47
47
48
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
45
43
45
44

No
answer
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9-5/15
5/5 – 5/8

Bernie Sanders,
the Democrat
52
53
53
53

Donald Trump,
the Republican
40
41
41
40

No answer
7
6
6
7

Who do you think will win the 2016 presidential election?


5/23—5/29
5/16-5/22
5/9 – 5/15

Hillary Clinton
47
51
51

Donald Trump
46
42
43

No answer
7
7
6

Do you think the Republican Party…

5/23—5/29

Is united
now
9

Is divided now
but will unite
by November
34

Will still be
divided in
November
55

No
answer
3

Do you think the Democratic Party…

5/23—5/29

Is united
now
16

Is divided now
but will unite
by November
43

Will still be
divided in
November
38

No
answer
3

If Bernie Sanders stays in the Democratic primary race through the convention in July, do you think it will help or hurt the
Democratic Party’s chances of winning in November?

Help the
Hurt the

Democratic
Democratic

Party in
Party in
Make no
No

5/23—5/29

November
23

November
31

difference
44

answer
2


METHODOLOGY

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of May 23, 2016 through May 29, 2016 was conducted online among a
national sample of 14,797 adults aged 18 and over, including 12,969 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected
from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age,
race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to
reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.

To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.1 percentage point for the full sample and plus or minus 1.2 percentage point
for registered voters.

To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.

Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample

14,797

1.1

Total RVs

Republican RVs

12,969

3,569

1.2

2.2

Democrat RVs

4,227

2.0

Very conservative

1,240

3.7

Conservative

3,631

2.2

Moderate

5,836

1.7

Liberal

2,509

2.5

Very liberal

1,192

3.7

Male

7,387

1.4

Female

7,410

1.5

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54

1,012
1,743
2,131
3,216

3.8
3.1
2.7
2.3

55-64
65+

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

Income: <$50k
Income: $50k-$99k
Income: $100k or more

3,762
2,933

10,917
1,212
1,381
1,287

3,939
4,685
5,247

2.1
2.4

1.2
3.9
3.4
3.3

2.0
1.9
1.7

Education: HS or less
Education: Some college
Education: College or more

Clinton voters
Sanders voters

1,931
4,067
8,799

3,549
2,569

2.4
1.6
1.1

2.1
2.5