Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Ch im
Gii thch tin trnh d phng bo co thu nhp, bng cn i ti sn v bo co dng tin.
CHNG TRC
Chng trc gii quyt vic phn tch li nhun ca cng ty bao gm kh nng sinh li
v li nhun trn vn u t. Nhn mnh n vic o lng t sut sinh li, phn r li nhun v
phn tch k ton cc thnh t ca thu nhp. Chng ny b sung cho cc chng sau - tp trung
vo ri ro, bao gm tnh thanh khon v kh nng thanh ton.
TRONG CHNG NY
Trong chng ny chng ta s nghin cu v d phng v phn tch cc bo co ti chnh.
Chng ti s cung cp mt v d chi tit v qu trnh d bo d phng cc bo co thu nhp,
bng cn i k ton v bo co dng tin. Chng ti m t s ph hp ca vic d bo cho qu
trnh nh gi chng khon v a ra mt v d bng vic s dng cc bo co ti chnh c d
phng thc hin mt m hnh nh gi. Chng ti cng s tho lun v nh ngha ca cc gi
tr dn truyn v s din ngc ca chng ti cc mc cn bng di hn.
CHNG TIP THEO
Chng 10 s m rng cc phn tch v tnh thanh khon trong ngn hn, cu trc vn v
kh nng thanh ton di hn ca mt cng ty. Chng ti gii thch v tnh thanh khon v m t
cc cng c phn tch nh cc t s k ton, vng quay v cc thc o hot ng ca tnh thanh
khon. Chng ti cng s phn tch cu trc vn v gii thch ng dng ca chng n hot ng
v kh nng thanh ton ca doanh nghip.
c im phn tch
Phn tch c bn l trng yu
NEW YORK Trong nhng
nm qua, hai i qun v i
ca cc nh u t tin
hnh mt trn u Ph
th sn sinh ra li nhun ln
trong nhng nm tip theo.
chin tuyn bn kia l cc nh
u t gi tr. H ch mua cc
cng ty c cc ti sn thc v
thu nhp vng chc hin ti
vi cc mc gi c mc c
k lng. Cho n nay, u
t gi tr c xem l mt
khun mu hn l mt h
thng quy lut. N da nhiu
vo vic d bo, cho d
Benjamin Graham v David
Dodd, nhng ngi ra cc
nguyn l ca u t gi tr,
khng tn thnh my vi
nhng d bo.
BusinessWeek
(2004)
thut li rng Khi bn nhn
vo ch s Russell 1000 Gi
tr v ch s Russell 1000
Tng trng, nhng ch s
c 25 nm tui, tnh trung
bnh gi tr vt tng trng
3%/nm. Cc nh kinh t
s dng cc ch s ca ring
h, cho thy gi tr vt tng
trng trung bnh 2,6%/nm
qua 75 nm. Cho d bn s
dng ch tiu gi tr hay tng
trng th quan trng hn vn
l ch n cc yu t c bn
trong kinh doanh ca mt
cng ty hn l thit lp ch
tiu u t ch da trn cc
ch s nh P/E hay PE trn
tc tng doanh s.
ti nhng yu t
nn tng hot ng
kinh doanh ca cng
ty
Nhng m t ca cc
nh u t gi tr v phong
cch u t ca h cng
khng ging nhau. Nhng
nu bn lng nghe mt cch
k lng th im mu cht
chnh l s nh gi nh nhau
v cc yu t nn tng. Theo
ngha rng nht, cc nh u
t gi tr tm kim nhng
cng ty ang c mua bn
ti mc gi thp hn gi tr
thc ca chng vi hy vng
rng cui cng th gi tr thc
ny cng s c nhn nhn
bi cc ch th tham gia th
trng khc v s c phn
nh li bng mt mc gi cao
hn.
xc nh gi tr tim
tng ny, cc nh u t cn
phi kho st cc vin cnh
kinh doanh c bn ca cng
ty. Bn mun mt cng ty
trong , mt s th g
ang thay i, c th bn
ngoi nh mt thay i c
bn trong ngnh hay bn
trong nh mt s thay i
trong qun tr, qun l danh
mc ca The Oppenheimer
Value Fund cho hay.
Phn tch trin vng l
thnh t trung tm ca u t
gi tr. N da trn s hiu
bit vng chc v cc nn
tng ca doanh nghip v th
trng kinh t m doanh
nghip hot ng. T c s
ny, cc d bo v hot ng
tng lai ca doanh nghip
c pht trin cung cp
c s cho vic nh gi c
phiu. Vi bt c trit l u
t no m chng ta tn thnh,
thng ip r rng l: hiu r
u l m hnh kinh doanh v
k hoch chin lc ca cng
ty.
D phng di hn
Tin hnh
D phng v nh gi c phiu
Din ngc gi tr dn truyn
Mi trng cnh tranh. C phi s lng cc i th cnh tranh ang tng ln? Hoc, c
phi cc i th yu hn dng hot ng? Nhng thay i trong mi trng cnh tranh
2005
$46.839
31.445
15.394
10.534
1.259
570
3.031
1.146
1.313
2004
$42.025
28.389
13.636
9.379
1.098
556
2.603
984
190
2003
$37.410
25.498
11.912
8.134
967
584
2.227
851
247
$ 3.198
891
$ 1.809
912
$ 1.623
910
11,455%
32,866
22,490
6,333
5,173
37,809
12,336%
32,447
22,318
5,245
4,982
37,803
Bc d phng
c tnh 2006
1
3
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
$52.204
35.047
17.157
11.741
1.410
493
3.513
1.328
0
10
$ 2.185
891
11,455%
32,866
22,490
6,333
5,173
37,809
(triu)
Tin
Cc khon phi thu
Hng tn kho
Ti sn ngn hn khc
Tng ti sn ngn hn
Ti sn, nh xng v thit b (PP&E)
Khu hao tch ly
Ti sn khc
Tng ti sn
Cc khon phi tr
N di hn n hn tr
Chi ph trch trc
Thu thu nhp v thu khc
Tng n ngn hn
Thu thu nhp hon li v ngha v khc
N di hn
Tng n
C phn thng
Vn gp b sung
Thu nhp gi li
Vn ch s hu
Tng n v vn ch s hu
T s chn lc
Vng quay cc khon phi thu
Vng quay hng tn kho
Vng quay cc khon phi tr
Vng quay chi ph trch trc
Thu phi tr/Chi ph thu
C tc mi c phn
Chi tiu vn (CAPEX) triu n v
CAPEX/Doanh s
2005
$2.245
5.069
5.384
1.224
13.922
22.272
5.412
16.860
1.511
$32.293
$5.779
504
1.633
304
8.220
2.010
9.034
19.264
74
1.810
11.145
13.029
2004
$708
4.621
4.531
3.092
12.952
19.880
4.727
15.153
3.311
$31.416
$4.956
863
1.288
1.207
8.314
1.815
10.155
20.284
76
1.530
9.526
11.132
2003
$758
5.565
4.760
852
11.935
20.936
5.629
15.307
1.361
$28.603
$4.684
975
1.545
319
7.523
1.451
10.186
19.160
76
1.256
8.111
9.443
9,240
5,840
5,441
28,683
26,527%
$0,310
3.012
6,431%
9,094
6,266
5,728
32,628
122,663%
$0,260
2.671
6,356%
6,722
5,357
5,444
24,214
37,485%
$0,240
3.189
8,524%
Tng cc bc (3) (10) cho ra tng n v vn c phn. Sau , tng ti sn s bng con
s ny. T , ta tnh c tin mt bng cch ly tng ti sn (1) v (2). Ti im ny, tin
mt c th qu cao hoc qu thp. N di hn v c phn thng sau s c iu chnh bng
cch pht hnh thm (hoc mua li) c c mt lng tin mt mong mun v duy tr n
by ti chnh qu kh. Nhng iu chnh ny ch ra mc ti tr yu cu h tr tc pht
trin ca cng ty.
Bt u, d phng cc khon phi thu, hng tn kho, PP&E, khon phi tr v cc khon
phi ph tch ly s dng doanh s v gi vn hng bn d phng cng vi cc t s vng quay
cho nhng ti khon ny. V d, vng quay khon phi thu da trn ti khon phi thu cui k l:
T
vngqukahytio
nphtui=
Doanh s
Kho
hnptuhi
ph
n
htu
dpihng=
Doansh
Vknhqgouitay
d
phng
huptnhi
(triu USD)
Bc d kin
c tnh
nm 2006
Nm
2005
Tin
17
5.650
5,069
Hng tn kho
6.001
5,384
Ti sn ngn hn khc.
1.224
1,224
14,277
13.922
1.402
2,245
Nguyn gi ti sn c nh
25.629
22,272
Khu hao ly k
6.822
5,412
Gi tr cn li
18.807
16,860
Ti sn di hn khc
1.511
1,511
$ 34,595
$ 32.293
Tng ti sn
Khon phi tr
6.441
N di hn n hn tr
751
504
Chi ph phi tr
10
1.820
1,633
11
352
304
9.364
8,220
5,779
12
2.010
2,010
N di hn
13
8.283
9,034
19,657
19.264
Tng n phi tr
Vn c phn
14
74
74
Thng d vn c phn
15
1.810
1,810
16
13.054
11,145
14,938
13.029
$ 34,595
$ 32.293
Vn ch s hu
Tng n phi tr v ngun vn
T s c la chn
Vng quay khon phi thu
9,240
9,240
5,840
5,840
5,441
5,441
28,683
28,683
26,527%
26,527%
0,310
0,310
3.357
3.012
6,431%
6,431%
10
c tnh nm 2006
$ 2.185
1.410
(581)
Hng tn kho
(617)
Khon phi tr
662
Chi ph dn tch
187
48
3.294
Chi tiu vn
(3.357)
(3.357)
N di hn
(504)
C tc
(276)
(780)
$ (843)
2.245
$ 1.402
Tuy nhin, phng php ny thng pht huy tc dng thay i cc gi nh phn tch
tc ng ca chng n cc nhu cu ti tr, t sut sinh li trn ti sn v vn c phnV d,
nu chng ta tng chi tiu vn ln 7,5% doanh thu, chi tiu vn s tng ln n $3,9 t v s d
tin mt s gim xung $845 triu, 2,4% tng ti sn v thp hn so vi nm trc. Trong trng
hp ny, ti tr bn ngoi di hnh thc n v/hoc vn c phn s c s dng. S tng ln
tng t trong nhu cu ti tr cng s dn n s st gim trong khon phi thu hoc hng tn
kho. Cc nh phn tch thng chun b nhiu d kin khc nhau kim tra cc kch bn tt
11
(xu) nht ngoi cc tnh hung c kh nng nht. Vic phn tch nhy gip lm ni bt cc
gi nh c tc ng ln n kt qu ti chnh, v do , gip xc nh nhng im cn c
xem xt k hn.
p dng phn tch trin vng vo m hnh nh gi theo thu nhp thng d
Nh chng ti ch ra trong phn u ca chng ny, phn tch trin vng l trung tm
ca phn tch chng khon. M hnh nh gi theo thu nhp thng d, nh ngha gi tr c phn
thi im t bng tng gi tr s sch hin ti v gi tr hin ti ca tt c thu nhp thng d k
vng trong tng lai:
V t =BV t +
E ( RI t +1 ) E ( RI t +2 ) E ( RI t +3 )
+
+
+
1
2
3
( 1+ k )
( 1+k )
(1+ k )
Trong , BVt l gi tr s sch cui thi k t, RIt+n l thu nhp thng d trong thi k t+n,
v k l chi ph s dng dng vn (xem Chng 1). Thu nhp thng d thi im t c nh
ngha bng cng thc
t ( k BV t 1 )
Doanh thu c k vng tng 8.9% v 9.1% trong nm 2006 v 2007, sau ln lt l
8%, 7% v 6% trong 3 nm tip theo. Giai on 5 nm ny l phm vi d phng, giai on m
chng ti c t tin nht trong c lng mnh. Chng ti gi nh doanh thu s tip tc tng
trng vi t l lm pht di hn 3.5%.
12
D kin
Nm cui
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
8,50%
8,6957%
8,90%
9,10%
0,80%
0,70%
6,00%
3.50%
9,05%
9,16%
9,20%
9,40%
9,40%
9,40%
9,40%
9.40%
22,7353
11,8271
11,8271
11,8271
11,8271
11,8271
11,8271
0,118271
1,8341
1,9878
1,9878
1,9878
1,9878
1,9878
1,9878
1,9878
0,023362
0,025186
2,5186
2,5186
2,5186
2,5186
2,5186
2,5186
Vng quay vn lu ng
(Doanh thu/Vn lu ng trung bnh)
Vng quay ti sn c nh
Tng ti sn hot ng/Tng VCP
Chi ph vn c phn
12,50%
Nghn USD
Doanh thu
81.324
88.396
$96.263
$105.023
$113.425
$121.365
$128.647
$133.149
7.360
8.093
8.856
9.872
10.662
11.408
12.093
0.12516
Vn lu ng
3.577
7.474
8.139
8.880
9.590
10.262
10.877
11.258
Ti sn c nh
44.340
44.469
48.427
52.834
57.060
61.054
64.718
66.983
Tng ti sn hot ng
47.917
51.943
56.566
61.713
66.651
71.316
75.595
78.241
N di hn
27.406
31.319
34.106
37.210
40.187
43.000
45.580
47.175
$8.856
$9.872
$10.662
$11.408
$12.093
$12.516
$20.624
$22.460
$24.503
$26.464
$28.316
$30.015
Vn c phn ban u
12,50%
12,50%
12,50%
12,50%
12,50%
12,50%
$2.578
$2.807
$3.063
$3.308
$3.540
$3.752
Tng vn ch s hu
Tnh thu nhp thng d
$6.278
$7.065
$7.599
$8.100
$8.553
0,8889
0,7901
0,7023
0,6243
0,5549
$5.581
$5.582
$5.337
$5.057
$4.746
$5.581
$11.163
$16.500
$21.557
$26.303
$54.039
$20.624
Gi tr ca VCP
C phn thng ang lu hnh (nghn)
Gi tr VCP trn mi c phiu
$100.966
1.737
$58,13
$8.764
Bin li nhun rng c k vng s tng n 9,2% v 9,4% trong hai nm tip theo v
chng li t l phn trm ny sau . Vn lu ng rng v vng quay ti sn c nh c k
vng s gi mc hin ti ln lt l 11,8271 v 1,9878 ln. n by ti chnh cng c k
vng s gi khng i mc hin ti l 2,5186. Cui cng, chi ph vn c phn c c tnh l
12,5%.1
Thu nhp rng c c tnh bng doanh thu d phng v bin li nhun d phng (Doanh
thu x Bin li nhun rng). Vn lu ng rng v ti sn c nh c c tnh bng doanh thu
d phng v t s vng quay vn lu ng rng v ti sn c nh tng ng (Doanh thu / t s
vng quay). Cui cng, vn c phn c d phng bng cch s dng t s ti sn hot
ng/vn c phn (Ti sn hot ng = Vn lu ng rng + Ti sn c nh).
Thu nhp thng d nm 2006 c c tnh bng thu nhp rng d phng tr i vn c
phn u k x chi ph s dng vn c phn 12,5%,
$6.278 = $8.856 ($20.624 x 0,125)
Cc nm tip theo trong phm vi d phng c thc hin tng t. Mi nm c chit khu
vi chi ph s dng vn 12,5%. V d, nhn t chit khu cho nm th 2 c tnh bng:
0,7901=
1
1.1252
$ 8.764
( 0,1250,035 )( 1.125 )5
Theo nh phn trn, m hnh thu nhp thng d nh ngha gi c phiu l gi tr s sch
ca vn c phn cng hin gi ca thu nhp thng d k vng (RI) vi
RI t =t ( k BV t 1 )
ROE k . trng thi cn bng, p lc cnh tranh s y t sut sinh li ROE thnh
chi ph k, lm cho li nhun bt thng bin mt. Sau , c lng gi c phiu cng khng
khc s d phng vic a ROE tr v gi tr cn bng trong di hn ca n trong mt cng ty
v ngnh c th.
Bng 9.7 th hin ROE ca cc nhm tt c cc cng ty trong c s d liu Compustat. Mi
nm, danh mc cc cng ty trong cc nhm ROE c hnh thnh v chng c theo di trong
10 nm. th ny th hin gi tr trung bnh ca mi danh mc. C hai quan st r rng:
1. ROE c xu hng tr li v tr cn bng di hn. iu ny phn nh p lc cnh tranh. Hn
na, t l tr li ca cc cng ty c li nhun thp nht th ln hn so vi cc cng ty c li
nhun cao nht. V cui cng, t l tr li i vi mc ROE cao nht hoc thp nht th
ln hn so vi cc cng ty c mc ROE trung bnh.
2. S tr li ny l khng hon ton. l, vn c mt s chnh lch khong 12% gia cc
cng ty c ROE cao nht v thp nht ngay c sau 10 nm. iu ny c th l kt qu ca 2
nhn t: nhng khc nhau trong ri ro phn nh trong s khc nhau v chi ph s dng vn
(k); hoc mc bo th cao hn (thp hn) trong cc chnh sch k ton.
Bng 9.7 cho thy phn ln s tr li hon tt sau khong 5 nm. iu ny ph hp vi
vic d phng 5 nm i vi Syminex v c t tc ng ln gi c phiu sau thi im m ti
ROE = k bt k gi nh tc tng trng doanh thu.
ROE c xem l nhn t thc y gi tr bi v n l bin nh hng trc tip ln gi c
phiu. ROA c tch thnh li nhun bin v hiu sut s dng ti sn (xem Chng 8). Cc
thnh phn ny cng l nhn t thc y gi tr v l 2 u vo m chng ti d phng trong qu
trnh nh gi Syminex. Do , tm hiu cc t l quay li i vi cc thnh phn ny cng rt
hu ch.
Hnh 9.7. S quay tr li ca ROE i vi cc nhm cng ty trong Compustat Database
Hiu sut s dng ti sn (TAT) l cu thnh th 2 trong ROA. Trong Hnh 9.9, chng ti
trnh by t l tr li ca TAT, c xy dng trn c s tng t nh th trn. Mc d c s
tr li nhng mc t hn so vi cc ch tiu o lng kh nng sinh li. Thm vo , c s
cch bit ln v hiu sut s dng ti sn gia cc cng ty c hiu sut cao nht v thp nht.
iu ny phn nh mc thm dng vn khc nhau.
D phng ca chng ti v li nhun v hiu sut s dng ti sn cn xem xt mu hnh tr
li in hnh v v tr ca cc nhn t thc y so vi trung bnh di hn ti im bt u c
lng. Thm vo , chng ti cn ch n cc c tnh ngnh v chng nh du s khc nhau
gia bin li nhun v mc hiu sut s dng ti sn nh tho lun tronng Chng 8. V
cui cng, k d phng ca chng ti khng c qu di do chng ti khng s t tin trong
c lng ca mnh v ROE c xu hng tim cn vi chi ph s dng vn trong khon thi
gian tng i ngn.
Hnh 9.9. S tr li mc di hn ca hiu sut s dng ti sn ca cc nhm cng ty trong
Compustat Database
PH LC 9A. D BO NGN HN
phn tch tnh thanh khon trong ngn hn, mt trong nhng cng c hu ch nht l d bo
tin mt ngn hn. D bo tin mt l mi quan tm ca cc i tng ni b nh nhng nh
qun l v cc kim ton vin trong vic nh gi cc hot ng chung hin nay v trong tng
lai ca cng ty. y cng l mi quan tm ca cc i tng bn ngoi nh nhng nh cho vay
ngn hn ngi cn nh gi kh nng tr n ngn hn ca cng ty. Phn tch ca chng ta ch
trng vo d bo tin mt ngn hn khi c s nghi ng v kh nng p ng ngha v n hin
nay ca cng ty. Tnh chnh xc ca d bo dng tin l t l nghch vi di k d bo - k d
bo cng di, tin cy ca cc con s d bo cng t. iu ny l do mc phc tp ca cc
nhn t nh hng n cc dng tin vo v dng tin ra m khng th c lng mt cch
chnh xc trong di hn. Ngay c trong trng hp d bo tin mt ngn hn cng cn rt nhiu
thng tin. V d bo dng tin thng ph thuc vo nhng thng tin c thng bo rng ri,
nn mc tiu ca chng ta l cc con s d bo chnh xc hp l. Bng cch nghin cu v
chun b d bo dng tin, phn tch ca chng ta nn nhn thy c ngha su xa hn trong
cc kiu dng tin ca cng ty.
Mu hnh dng tin
Rt quan trng cho chng ta n li bn cht ca cc kiu dng tin trc khi kim tra cc m
hnh d phng v phn tch dng tin. Tin v nhng khon tng ng tin (t y v sau n
gin gi l tin mt) l nhng ti sn c thanh khon cao nht. Hu ht tt c cc quyt nh
u t vo ti sn hoc chi tiu ca ban qun l u cn s dng tin mt ngay hoc sau . iu
ny lm cho ban qun l quan tm n tin mt nhiu hn nhng khi nim khc v cc ti sn
thanh khon khc. Mt s i tng (nh ngi cho vay) i khi xem cc ti sn nh cc khon
phi thu v hng tn kho l mt phn ca ti sn c tnh thanh khon nu chng d dng chuyn
sang tin mt.
Gi tin mt khng sinh li v theo thi gian khi gi tng, tin mt (cng ging nh tt c
cc ti sn bng tin khc) b gim sc mua. Tuy nhin, gi tin mt li t b ri ro nht. Ban
qun l chu trch nhim v nhng quyt nh u t tin mt vo ti sn hoc chi tr nhng chi
ph ngay lp tc. Vic chuyn i tin mt ny lm tng ri ro v vic thu hi c bn v tin mt
t nhng hot ng ny l khng chc chn. C nhiu loi ri ro gn vi vic chuyn i tin
mt v cc mc khc nhau. V d, ri ro trong vic chuyn i tin mt sang u t tm thi
t ri ro hn l dng tin mt mua nhng ti sn di hn nh nh xng v thit b. u t tin
mt vo ti sn hoc chi tiu cho nhng chi ph nhm pht trin v tip th nhng sn phm mi
thng c nhiu ri ro trong vic ly li tin mt hn. C tnh thanh khon ngn hn v kh nng
tr n di hn u ph thuc vo kh nng ly li v kh nng chi tiu tin mt.
Dng tin vo v dng tin ra c tng quan vi nhau. Tht bi ca bt c kha cnh no
trong vic thc hin thnh cng nhim v c giao cng lm nh hng n ton b h thng
dng tin. Mt s suy gim trong doanh thu s nh hng n vic chuyn hng thnh phm
sang khon phi thu v tin mt, dn n s suy gim kh nng sn c tin mt. Vic cng ty
khng c kh nng thay th khon tin mt ny bng cc ngun khc nh vn c phn, tin vay
hoc cc khon phi tr c th lm cn tr cc hot ng sn xut v gy st gim doanh thu
trong tng lai. Ngc li, vic hn ch chi tiu cho cc khon nh qung co v tip th c th
lm chm qu trnh chuyn hng thnh phm thnh khon phi thu v tin mt. Vic hn ch
dng tin vo hoc dng tin ra trong di hn c th a cng ty n tnh trng khng th tr n.
Phn tch ca chng ta phi thc c mi tng quan gia dng tin, cc khon pht
sinh (dn tch) v li nhun. Doanh thu l ngun thc y cc lung tin t hot ng, Khi thnh
phm c bn i, li nhun ca cng ty s mang li mt lung tin vo thng qua cc khon
phi thu v tin mt. Li nhun cng cao, s gia tng lung tin ny cng ln. Li nhun v c
bn l khon chnh lch gia doanh thu v gi vn hng bn (li nhun gp), v c tm quan
trng ln lao i vi cc lung tin mt. Nhiu loi chi ph nh chi ph xut pht t vic s dng
nh xng v thit b hoc cc chi ph tr chm khng i hi phi chi tiu tin mt. Tng t,
cc khon nh bn t tr gp di hn khng to ra cc khon phi thu hin thi lm hn ch s
tng quan ca cc khon pht sinh vi dng tin. Phn tch ca chng ta phi s dng thch hp
nhng tiu chun ny trong vic nh gi dng tin.
Dng tin b gii hn mt kha cnh quan trng. Khi c cc lung tin vo cng ty, ban
lnh o phi suy tnh trong vic chi tiu lung tin nh th no. S suy tnh ny ph thuc
vo nhng quy nh chi tiu nh c tc, tch ly hng tn kho, chi tiu vn, hoc tr n. Dng
tin cng ph thuc vo kh nng thu ht cc ngun vn nh c phn hoc n ca ban qun l.
Vi nhng dng tin khng c quy nh chi tiu, chng hn nh dng tin t do, ban qun l c
th t ch trng trong vic s dng n. Khon tin mt khng b quy nh chi tiu ny l mi
quan tm c bit ca chng ta v quan trng cho phn tch ca chng ta.
Tm quan trng ca vic d bo doanh thu
tin cy ca vic d bo tin mt ph thuc vo cht lng d bo doanh thu. Vi mt vi
ngoi l nh tin t hot ng ti tr hoc tin c s dng trong cc hot ng u t, dng
tin hu nh c lin quan v ph thuc vo doanh thu. D bo doanh thu ca chng ta bao gm
cc phn tch:
Th phn
Nhng thnh phn ny thng c nh gi theo cc loi sn phm v tim nng b nh hng
bi cc lc lng ring bit ca th trng i vi cc sn phm ca chng. Nhng v d sau y
s minh ha cho tm quan trng ca vic d bo doanh thu.
QUAN IM PHN TCH
cng ty c tnh doanh s (triu $) cho 6 thng ti kt thc vo ngy 30/6 Nm 1, l: 100, 125,
150, 175, 200 v 250 (xem hnh bn). S d tin mt hin nay vo thng 1, nm 1 l $15.000.
Vi trin vng doanh thu c d bo tng, cc nh qun l vn ca cng ty IT hy vng s duy
tr ti thiu s d tin mt hng thng l $20.000 cho thng 1; $25.000 cho thng 2; $27.000 cho
thng 3; $30.000 cho thng 4, 5 v 6. Gim c vn thy trc nhu cu huy ng thm vn ti
tr cho vic pht trin doanh thu. Gim c k vng rng trong thng 2 s mua mt thit b mi
c gi $20.000 bng ngn phiu. Ngn phiu s phi thanh ton, bt u t thng 2, vi mc
$1.000 mt thng. Thit b mi ny d nh s khng a vo hot ng trc thng 8 ca Nm
1.
Gim c vn ln k hoch cho cc bc k tip cho nhng yu cu ti tr ny. Trc ht,
c y s c c cam kt ti tr $10.000 tri phiu di hn cho cng ty (tr $2.500 chi ph giao
dch). Vic bn tri phiu c d tr vo thng 4 ($50.000) v thng 5 ($60.000). C d nh s
bn bt ng sn huy ng thm vn, gm $8.000 vo thng 5 v $50.000 vo thng 6, v s
bn thit b (gi gc l $25.000 vi gi tr s sch bng 0) vi gi $25.000 vo thng 6. C cng
d nh tip cn ngn hng ca cng ty xin ti tr vn ngn hn nhm trang tri cho nhu cu
vn tng thm ny. Chuyn gia cho vay ca ngn hng yu cu ban qun l chun b mt bng
d bo tin mt cho giai on 6 thng kt thc vo ngy 30/6, Nm 1, cng vi cc bng bo
co ti chnh d kin cho giai on , x l ngh ca C. Chuyn gia cho vay cng
ngh rng Cng ty IT nn chi tit ha vic s dng tin mt v ngun tin tr vn vay. Gim
c vn nhn thc c tm quan trng ca vic d bo tin mt v tin hnh thu thp nhng d
liu cn thit p ng ngh ca chuyn gia cho vay.
Mt trong nhng bc u tin, gim c vn c tnh k hoch thu hi khon phi thu. Cc
kinh nghim trc kia gi k hoch thu hi khon phi thu sau y:
K hoch thu
.40%
.30
Thu vo thng th ba
.20
Thu vo thng th t
...5
Xa n nh n xu
...5
100%
$100.000
Thng 2
$125.000
Thng 3
Thng 4
$150.000 $175.000
Thng 5
$200.000
Thng 6
$250.000
$40.000
Thng th II 30%
$50.000
$60.000
$70.000
$80.000
$100.000
$30.000
37.500
45.000
52.500
60.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
5.000
6.250
7.500
$117.500 $145.000
$168.750
$202.500
5.000
6.250
7.500
$40.000
$80.000
Xa n - 5%
* n gin, cc khon thu tin mt do bn hng trc thng
1 c b qua
D bo tin mt cho tng thng trong 6 thng kt thc vo ngy 30/6, Nm 1, c trnh
by trong bng 9A.4. S dng nhng con s d bo ny, Bng 9A.5 th hin bng bo co kt
qu kinh doanh hoch nh ca cng ty IT cho giai on 6 thng, kt thc vo 30/6, Nm 1.
Ngoi ra, c bng cn i k ton hoch nh ln thc t ca cng ty IT vo 1/1 v 30/6, Nm 1
c th hin bng 9A.6.
Khi phn tch trin vng, chng ta nn kim tra k lng cc bng bo co hoch nh v
nh kim nh tnh kh thi ca c cc bng d bo ln cc gi nh chung ca chng. Chng ta
nn nh gi cc ch s ln cc mi tng quan trong cc bo co ti chnh d kin v so snh
$40,000
$38,000
$43,000
$56,000
$5,.000
$79,000
$19,000
$21,500
$28,000
$29,000
$39,500
20,000
19,000
21,500
28,000
29,000
$39,000
$40.000
$49.500
$57.000
$68.500
$20,000
* Mua nguyn vt liu phi tng thch vi chi ph nguyn vt liu v thay i hng tn kho
Hnh 9A.4
Cng ty IT D bo tin mt t thng 1 n thng 6, nm 1
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Tng cng
6 thng
$ 15,000
$ 20,000
$ 25,750
$ 27,250
$ 30,580
$ 30,895
$ 15,000
40,000
80,000
117,500
145,000
168,750
202,500
753,750
Bn bt ng sn*
Bn tri phiu*
Bn thit b*
Tng tin mt sn c
55,000
100,000
143,250
219,750
267,330
308,395
959,25
20,000
39,000
40,500
49,500
57,000
68,500
274,500
25,000
31,250
37,500
43,750
50,000
62,500
250,000
7,000
7,000
7,000
7,000
7,000
7,000
7,000
10,000
12,500
12,500
17,500
20,000
25,000
100,000
Chi ph bn hng1
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
25,000
100,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
27,000
122,000
Thu**
19,000
19,000
Mua ti sn c nh*
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
5,000
87,000
120,250
135,000
157,250
178,000
235,000
912,500
S d tin mt d kin
(32,000)
(20,250)
8250
62,500
89,330
73,395
46,750
S d tin mt u k
Cng vi khon tin mt thu c do:
Tin mt ti thiu cn c*
20,000
25,000
135,000
157,250
178,000
235,000
912,500
Nhu cu vay mn
52,000
46,000
19,000
117,000
30,000
58,000
29,000
(117,000)
Li c tr tin trn s d$
1,920
435
145
2,500
S d tin mt cui k
$20,000
$25,750
$27,250
$30,580
$30,895
$44,250
$44,250
S d cc khon vay
$52,000
$98,000
$117,000
$87,000
$29,000
Chng ta nn thc rng lun c sn cc chng trnh tnh ton in t h tr chng ta trong
phn tch hoch nh. Vic d dng thay i bin trong kim nh nhy s ci thin tnh hu
dng ca cc bng bo co hoch nh. Tuy nhin, chng ta khng nn nhm ln gia s d dng
v tnh linh hot ca nhng chng trnh ny vi nhu cu thit yu trong vic pht trin v xc
nh nhng c lng v gi nh n sau kt qu ca chng. S hp l ca nhng c lng
quan trng v nhng gi nh, cng vi s hu ch ca phn ch ny, ph thuc vo vic nh gi
v phn on mt cch nghim tc ca chng ta ch khng phi l cng ngh.
Hnh 9A.5
Cng ty Cng ngh IT
Bng bo co kt qu kinh doanh d phng
Cho 6 thng, kt thc vo 30 thng 6, nm 1 (triu ng)
Ngun c tnh
Doanh thu
$1,000,000
Doanh thu d bo
Nguyn vt liu
300,000
Hnh 9A.2
Lao ng
250,000
Hnh 9A.2
148,000
Hnh 9A.2
Tng gi vn hng bn
698,000
Li nhun gp
302,000
Chi ph bn hng
100,000
Hnh 9A.2
Chi ph n xu
18,750
Hnh 9A.1
122,000
Hnh 9A.2
Chi ph hot ng
240,750
61,250
Tin li do bn thit b
25,000
Gim c vn
Chi ph li vay
(2,500)
83,750
33.500
Li nhun rng
$50.250
Gi vn hng bn
HNG DN TR LI
NGI MI GII CHNG KHON
S chnh lch trong d bo dng tin v thu nhp trong Boston Biotech khng nht thit phi l
mi quan tm. Nhiu cng ty ang pht trin tri quan vic c hoc khng c dng tin dng
trong ngn hn. Tt nhin, nhng dng tin thp trong ngn hn c k vng s mang li dng
tin trn mc trung bnh trong tng lai. Boston Biotech c kh nng c th ghi nhn dng tin
D phng
1/1, Nm 1
30/6, Nm 1
Ti sn
Ti sn ngn hn
Tin
Phi thu (thun)
Hng tn kho - Nguyn vt liu
$15,000
$44,250
$6,500
234,000
$57,000
$71,000
Tng ti sn ngn hn
Bt ng sn
$78,500
$349,250
$58,000
Nguyn gi ti sn c nh
$206,400
$201,400
Khu hao ly k
($36,400)
($17,400)
Ti sn c nh thun
$228,000
$184,000
Ti sn khc
$3,000
$3,000
2,500
$309,500
$538,750
2,000
41,500
28,500
43,500
14,500
Tng n ngn hn
N di hn
Chng khon ph thng
Li nhun gi li
Tng n v ngun vn
$30,500
$99,500
15,000
125,000
168,000
168,000
96,000
279,000
146,250
$309,500
439,250
$538,750
9-14A. Miu t nhng khc bit c bn gia phn tch cc ngun ti tr v ch s. K thut
phn tch no c khuyn khch s dng hn v ti sao?
9-15A. Bc u tin trong vic d chun b phng dng tin thng l g, v nhng cn nhc g
cn c xem xt n trong bc ny?
BI TP
BI TP 9-1. D on thu nhp v cc yu t cu thnh thu nhp
Xem xt bo co ti chnh ca Quaker Oats Company trong Vn 9-6. Chun b mt d phng
thu nhp cho nm 12 s dng nhng gi nh sau (Triu USD):
1. Doanh thu c d phng bng $6,000.
2. D phng gi vn hng bn s dng phn trm trung bnh ca gi vn hng bn trong
doanh thu ca 3 nm c nin ti kha kt thc vo ngy 30/6, bt u t nm 11.
3. Chi ph bn hng, chi ph qun l doanh nghip c k vng tng bng t l phn trm
tng pht sinh t nm 10 n nm 11.
4. Chi ph khc c d on tng 8% so vi nm 11.
5. Khong l 2 tiu $ (sau thu) c k vng t thanh l ti sn t hot ng khng lin tc.
6. Chi ph li vay, chi ph li vay vn ha thun v thu nhp li vay, c k vng tng khon
6% bi v tng nhu cu ti chnh.
7. Thu sut hiu lc bng vi nm 11.
Doanh
thu
Thu nhp
rng
$17,349
$2,162
$12,278
$2,014
$13,984
$2,350
$13,972
$1,891
$16,040
$2,450
$12,700
$2,284
$14,566
$14,669
$2,671
$2,155
3
12/Y
3
03/Y
4
06/Y
4
$17,892
$12,621
$2,067
$14,725
$1,677
$2,820
Yu cu:
S dng nhng d liu ny v nhng thng tin sn c trong nhng giai on trc d
phng doanh thu v thu nhp thun cho mi qu kt thc thng 9 /9, thng 12/9,thng 3/10, v
thng 6/10. Gii thch c s ca vic d phng .
$20
$20
$150
$21
$25
$15
$4
$11
$30
Phi tr 1 thng 7 nm 6
$18
VN
VN 9-1. Lp bng d phng bo co ti chnh
Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh v bng cn i k tan ca Coca-cola nh sau (triu $):
Nm 2
Nm 1
20,092
19,889
Gi vn hng bn
6,044
6,204
14,048
13,685
7,893
9,221
803
773
(308)
292
5,660
3,399
1,691
1,222
3,969
2,177
C phiu lu hnh
3,491
3,481
Nm 2
Nm 1
Tin
1,934
1,892
Phi thu
1,882
1,757
Hng tn kho
1,055
1,066
Ti sn ngn hn khc
2,300
1,905
Tng ti sn ngn hn
7,171
6,620
Nguyn gi ti sn c nh
7,105
6,614
Khu hao ly k
2,652
2,446
Gi tr cn li
4,453
4,168
10,793
10,046
Li nhun gp
Chi ph bn hng, qun l doanh nghip
Chi ph khu hao
BNG CN I K TON
Ti sn di hn khc
Tng cng ti sn
22,417
20,834
3,679
3,905
N ngn hn v n di hn n hn tr
3,899
4,816
851
600
Tng n ngn hn
8,429
9,321
1,403
1,362
N di hn
1,219
835
Tng n ngn hn
2,622
2,197
873
870
3,520
3,196
20,655
18,543
C phiu qu
13,682
13,293
Vn ch s hu
11,366
9,316
22,417
20,834
Yu cu:
a. S dng nhng ch s sau lp bng d phng kt qu hot ng kinh doanh, cn i k
ton v dng tin cho nm th 3.
Tng trng doanh thu
1.02%
Li nhu gp bin
69.92%
39.28%
12.14%
5.45%
29.88%
10.68
5.73
1.64
50.33%
2.06
1.38$
5.91%
Nm 1
15,326
12,494
Gi vn hng bn
12,267
10,101
Li nhun gp
3,059
2,393
2,251
1,728
167
103
641
562
245
215
396
347
C phiu lu hnh
208
200
BNG CN I K TON
Nm 2
Nm 1
Tin
746
751
Phi thu
313
262
1,767
1,184
Ti sn ngn hn khc
102
41
Tng ti sn ngn hn
2,928
2,238
Nguyn gi ti sn c nh
1,987
1,093
543
395
1,444
698
466
59
Tng cng ti sn
4,838
2,995
2,473
1,704
N ngn hn v n di hn n hn tr
114
16
127
65
2,714
1,785
N di hn
122
100
Vay di hn
181
15
Tng n ngn hn
303
115
20
20
576
247
1,225
828
Hng tn kho
Khu hao ly k
Gi tr cn li
Ti sn di hn khc
Tng n ngn hn
Vn ch s hu
1,821
1,095
4,838
2,995
Yu cu:
a. Hy s dng nhng ch s bn di lp bng d phng kt qu hot ng kinh doanh,
bng cn i k ton, v dng tin cho nm 3.
Tng trng doanh thu
22.67%
Li nhu gp bin
19.96%
14.69%
15.28%
38.22%
48.96
6.94
4.96
51.84%
2.55
C tc trn mi c phiu
$0
6.71%
Nm 1
47,716
40,343
Gi vn hng bn
28,977
22,444
Li nhun gp
18,739
17,899
6,531
6,469
1,464
1,277
342
329
10,402
9,824
3,121
3,002
7,282
6,822
C phiu lu hnh
2,976
2,968
Chi ph li vay
BNG CN I K TON
Nm 2
Nm 1
Tin
3,287
4,255
Phi thu
5,215
5,262
Hng tn kho
3,579
3,022
Ti sn ngn hn khc
880
1,059
Tng ti sn ngn hn
12,961
13,598
Nguyn gi ti sn c nh
18,956
16,707
5,853
5,225
Gi tr cn li
13,103
11,482
Ti sn di hn khc
17,942
15,075
Tng cng ti sn
44,006
40,155
5,904
5,391
N ngn hn v n di hn n hn tr
4,067
3,319
1,573
1,244
Tng n ngn hn
11,544
9,954
11,614
11,768
4,799
3,601
16,413
15,369
30
30
6,907
6,266
31,500
27,395
(22,387)
(18,858)
Vn ch s hu
16,050
14,833
44,007
40,154
Khu hao ly k
Vay di hn
Tng n ngn hn
Chng khon ph thng
Thng d vn
Li nhun sau thu cha phn phi
C phiu qu
18.27%
Li nhu gp bin
38.27%
13.69%
8.67%
4.94%
30.00%
9.15
8.1
4.91
59.41%
2.35
C tc trn mi c phiu
$1.06
9.04%
Nm 2
8.50%
10.65%
6.71%
8.22%
8.98
9.33
1.67
1.64
1.96
2.01
1,737
1,737
$25,423
$28,131
1,706
2,312
Vn lu ng thun
2,832
3,015
Ti sn
15,232
17,136
Tng ti sn hot ng
18,064
20,151
N di hn
8,832
10,132
Tng vn ch s hu
9,232
10,019
Yu cu:
S dng m hnh thu nhp thng d, hy nh gi gi tr chng khon ca Welmark Corporation
ti Nm 3 da trn nhng gi nh sau:
a. D phng cho 5 nm tip theo
b. Tng trng doanh thu l 10.65%/nm theo d phng ngang v 3.5% cho cc nm sau .
c. Tt c ch s ti chnh bng vi Nm 3 v khng i cho cc nm sau.
d. Chi ph vn ch s hu l 12.5%
$250.000
$30.000
$10.000
$22.500
$35.000
$500
$47.500
$125.000
Nm 11
Nm 10
Nm 9
5,491.2
5,030.6
4,879.4
Gi vn hng bn
2,839.7
2,685.9
2,655.3
Li nhun gp
2,651.5
2,344.7
2,224.1
2,121.2
1,844.1
1,779.0
86.2
101.8
56.4
Cc chi ph khc
32.6
16.4
149.6
411.5
382.4
239.1
175.7
153.5
90.2
235.8
228.9
148.9
-30.0
-59.9
54.1
205.8
169.0
203.0
4.3
4.5
201.5
164.5
203.0
3.05
2.93
1.88
-0.40
-0.78
0.68
2.65
2.15
2.56
C tc cng b
1.65
1.40
1.20
75,904
76,537
79,307
C tc u i (sau thu)
Thu nhp rng cho c phn thng
BNG CN I K TON
30/6 (triu $)
Nm 11
Nm 10
Nm 9
30.2
17.7
21.0
0.0
0.6
2.7
691.1
629.9
594.4
309.1
324.1
326.0
Nguyn vt liu
86.7
110.7
114.1
26.5
39.1
39.0
422.3
473.9
479.1
Ti sn
Ti sn ngn hn
Tin mt v cc khon tng ng tin
Cc khon u t ngn hn
Cc khon phi thu
Hng tn kho
Thnh phm
Ti sn ngn hn khc
114.5
107.0
94.2
0.0
252.2
328.5
1,258.1
1,481.3
1,519.9
79.1
63.5
26.4
1,914.6
1,745.6
1,456.9
681.9
591.5
497.3
1,232.7
1,154.1
959.6
446.2
466.7
484.7
0.0
160.5
135.3
3,016.1
3,326.1
3,125.9
N vay ngn hn
80.6
343.2
102.2
N di hn n hn
32.9
32.3
30.0
Phi tr ngi bn
350.9
354.0
333.8
116.3
106.3
118.1
105.7
92.6
67.1
45.1
36.3
8.0
29.6
0.0
0.0
165.8
173.8
164.9
Tng n ngn hn
926.9
1,138.5
824.1
N vay di hn
701.2
740.3
766.8
Phi tr khc
115.5
100.3
89.5
366.7
327.7
308.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
Ph bi thng hon li
-94.5
-98.2
-100.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0
420.0
420.0
420.0
7.2
12.9
18.1
1047.5
1164.7
1106.2
-52.9
-29.3
-56.6
-168.0
-164.1
-165.8
-352.8
-386.7
-184.8
901.0
1017.5
1137.1
3016.1
3326.1
3125.9
Nm th 12
20
45
300
135
30
6.000
Mt s gi nh b sung:
1. Thu nhp t hot ng thng xuyn trong nm th 12 c d on s bng vi bnh
qun phn trm thu nhp t hot ng thng xuyn trn doanh thu cho giai on 3 nm
kt thc vo 30 thng 6 nm th 11.
2. Cc khon khu hao d tnh cho nm th 12 s dng phn trm bnh qun ca khu hao
trn cho thu nhp t hot ng thng xuyn giai on nm th 9 dn ht nm th 11. Mc
trung bnh c tnh ra mc 82.33%.
3. D tnh v thu thu nhp hon li v cc mc khc trong nm 12 phn nh thng qua t l
thu thu nhp hon li v cc mc khc trn cho tng thu nhp t hot ng thng xuyn
trong 3 nm trc v mc 22.9%.
4. D phng chi ph ti c cu c d bo bng 0 cho nm th 12.
5. S ngy tr tr c d bo l 42 cho nm th 12.
6. S ngy tn kho l 55 v t l chi ph bn hng trn cho doanh thu l 0.51 cho nm th 12.
7. Thay i trong cc ti sn ngn hn khc c d bo bng vi trung bnh tng/gim trong
khong thi gian nm th 9 n nm th 11 l $25,6.
8. S ngy phi tr c d bo cho nm th 12 l 45 v hng mua c d bo tng 12%
trong nm th 12 so vi nm th 11, mc $2.807,2.
9. Thay i trong n ngn hn c d bo bng vi trung bnh tng/gim ca giai on nm
th 9 v nm th 11 l $24,5.
10. Khng c d tnh dng kinh doanh.
TNH HUNG
TNH HUNG 9-1. D phng bo co ti chnh
Da vo cc bo co ti chnh ca Kodak c cho di y:
BNG KT QU HOT NG KINH DOANH
Kt thc nm 31/12 (triu $)
20x6
20x5
20x4
13,234
13,994
14,089
Gi vn hng bn
8,670
8,375
8,086
Li nhun gp
4,564
5,619
6,003
2,781
2,665
2,846
779
784
817
659
-44
350
345
2,214
1,990
Chi ph li vay
219
178
142
-18
96
261
108
2,132
2,109
32
725
717
76
1,407
1,392
20x6
20x5
448
246
2,337
2,653
BNG CN I K TON
Ti ngy 31/6 (triu $, ngoi tr d liu c phiu v trn c
phiu)
Ti sn
Ti sn ngn hn
Tin mt v cc khon tng ng tin
Cc khon phi thu rng
1,137
1,718
521
575
Ti sn ngn hn khc
240
299
Tng ti sn ngn hn
4,683
5,491
Ti sn c nh, rng
5,659
5,919
948
947
2,072
1,855
13,362
14,212
3,276
3,403
Vay ngn hn
1,378
2,058
N di hn n hn
156
148
544
606
Tng n ngn hn
5,354
6,215
N rng di hn
1,666
1,166
2,728
2,722
N di hn khc
720
681
Tng n phi tr
10,468
10,784
978
978
Thng d vn c phn
849
871
7,431
7,869
-597
-482
8,661
9,236
-5,767
-5,808
2,894
3,428
13,362
14,212
Vn ch s hu
C phn thng, mnh gi $2.5
Li nhun gi li
L ly k
C phiu ti qu; 100,363,059 c phn nm 20x6 v
100,808,494 c phn nm 20x5
Tng vn ch s hu
Tng n phi tr v vn ch s hu
Yu cu:
Chun b d phng bo co thu nhp, bng cn i k ton v bo co lu chuyn tin t cho
nm 20x7 da theo nhng gi nh di y:
V tnh hnh thi tit, h thng ch hot ng t ngy 1/4 n 30/11 hng nm. D n xy dng
s hon thin thnh phn th nht ca h thng (cng sut chuyn ti 5 triu thng) vo thi
im s dng cho ma vn chuyn tu thy ca Nm 2. Thnh phn cn li ca h thng (cng
sut chuyn ti 3 triu thng) s c hon thnh vo ma vn chuyn Nm 3. D kin 5 triu
thng s c chuyn ti bi h thng mi trong Nm 2. Sau , s thng chuyn ti d kin
tng thm 300.000 thng mi nm cho n khi t ti a 6.500.000 thng. Doanh thu ca cng
ty nhn c c tnh bi s lng thng chuyn ti c v mt mc t l c nh cho mi
thng c bc d ln tu. Tt c doanh thu c nhn trong thng vn chuyn. Da trn thng
tin qu kh ca cc h thng bc d tng t, Miller Company d tnh li nhun hot ng
trc li vay bnh qun 0,04 $ mi thng, chi ph ti tr v khu hao. Khu hao mc 0,03 $
mi thng.
Yu cu:
TNH HUNG 9-3. Chun b mt d phng tin mt cho mt cng ty trong tnh trng kit
qu
Royal Company gnh chu nhng khon l ln trong nhiu nm v hin v n. Vo 31/3,
Nm 5. Royal lm n xin Ta s bo v khi cc ch n v np bn cn i k ton sau:
ROYAL COMPANY
Bn cn i k ton - 31 thng 3, nm 5
Gi tr s sch
Gi tr thanh l
100,000
50,000
90,000
40,000
Ti sn c nh
150,000
160,000
Tng ti sn
340,000
250,000
Ti sn
Cc khon phi thu
Hng tn kho
N v vn ch s hu
Cc khon phi tr - ch n chung
C phn thng
600,000
60,000
Li nhun gi li
-320,000
Tng n v ngun vn
340,000
Ban qun l Royal thng bo vi Ta rng cng ty pht trin mt sn phm mi v mt khch
hng tim nng sn sng k hp ng mua 10.000 sn phm (vi mc gi 90 $ mi sn phm)
trong sut nm n 31/3, Nm 6; 12.000 sn phm trong sut nm n 31/3, Nm 7 v 15.999
sn phm trong sut nm n 31/3, Nm 8. Sn phm c th sn xut bi trang thit b hin c
ca Royal. Sn lng hng thng vi vic giao hng lp tc c d tnh s ng nht trong
tng nm mt. Cc khon phi thu c d tnh thu hi trong thng dng lch tip theo sau
thng bn ra. Chi ph sn xut cho mi sn phm mi l:
Nguyn liu trc tip........$20
Bin ph khc......$10
Chi ph c nh ( tr khu hao) l 130.000 $ mi nm. Tin mua nguyn liu trc tip c
thanh ton ngay trong thng mua. Chi ph c nh, nhn cng trc tip v bin ph khc c
thanh ton khi pht sinh. Tn kho nguyn liu trc tip bng 60 ngy s dng. Sau thng u tin
hot ng, Royal s t cung cp thm 90 ngy s dng, 30 ngy s dng nguyn liu trc tip
c t hng mi thng.
Cc khon phi thu v hng tn kho hin c c chuyn giao ngay cho cc ch n.
Yu cu:
Chun b mt d phng tin mt cho cc nm kt thc vo 31/3, Nm 6 v Nm 7. B qua bt c
nhu cu vay mn v thanh ton cc khon ngn hn dnh cho mc ch vn lun chuyn v th
hin r tin mt d tnh sn c dnh tr cc ch n, cc khon thanh ton thc cho cc ch n,
v tin mt cn li sau khi thanh ton.
$12,000
$10,000
$63,600
$100,000
0
$40,000
$48,000
$60,000
$80,000
$36,000
Doanh thu thu c 75% bng tin mt v 25% qua ti khon phi thu. Cc khon phi thu
c thu hi ton b trong thng tip theo. V d, s cn i ti khon phi thu l 10,000$ vo
30 thng 9 nm 6, bng 25% doanh thu trong thng 9, v ton b 10,000$ s c tr trong thng
10. Li nhun gp bnh qun 30% doanh thu trc khi chit khu. Do , chi ph gp hng bn
trn ha n bng 70% doanh thu. Union Corp. hin c 30,000$ hng tn kho cung cp cho
doanh s d bo thng tip theo. iu kin mua hng l 2/10, n/30. V mua hng c thc hin
u mi thng v c tnh chit khu, cc khon thanh ton phi thc hin ngay trong thng
mua hng.
Lng v tin cng bnh qun chim 15% doanh s, tin thu mn trung bnh chim 5%
doanh thu, v tt c chi ph khc (ngoi tr khu hao) bnh qun chim 4% doanh thu. Nhng chi
ph ny c tr khi pht sinh bng tin mt. Chi ph khu hao l 750$ mi thng, khu hao theo
phng php ng thng. Chi mua sm thit b c d tnh mc 600$ trong thng 10 v
400$ trong thng 11. Khu hao cho trang thit b mua sm mi khng c ghi nhn cho n
Chuyn vin cp cao yu cu bn chun b mt bng k hoch cho cc thng 10, 11 v 12,
v c qu gm 3 thng kt thc vo thng 12 nm 6:
Tin mt chi cho mua hng c tnh (mua hng bng 70% doanh thu ca thng tip theo)