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ANÁLISIS Y TRATAMIENTO DE DATOS DE DESCARGA ANALISIS DE LAS MÁXIMAS AVENIDAS 1.- METODO DE DISTRIBUCION DE GUMBELL N° DE AÑOSAÑO DE INICIOAÑO FINAL 20 1979 1998 FECHA 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 N° DE AÑOS CAUDAL ORDEN (Qi) DESCENDENTE N° DE ORDEN PERIODO DE FRECUENCIA RETORNO ( NO EXCD.) 20 11.650 154.70 1 21.000 95.238 20 7.880 43.59 2 10.500 90.476 20 11.910 24.92 3 7.000 85.714 20 5.760 20.03 4 5.250 80.952 20 43.590 14.36 5 4.200 76.190 20 24.920 11.93 6 3.500 71.429 20 5.710 11.91 7 3.000 66.667 20 11.490 11.65 8 2.625 61.905 20 11.600 11.60 9 2.333 57.143 20 7.430 11.49 10 2.100 52.381 20 14.360 9.56 11 1.909 47.619 20 5.070 9.05 12 1.750 42.857 20 5.930 7.88 13 1.615 38.095 20 11.930 7.43 14 1.500 33.333 20 20.030 6.49 15 1.400 28.571 20 9.050 5.93 16 1.313 23.810 20 5.230 5.76 17 1.235 19.048 20 9.560 5.71 18 1.167 14.286 20 6.490 5.23 19 1.105 9.524 20 154.700 5.07 20 1.050 4.762 Q promedio = 19.215 GRAFICA DE T Vs Qt   700 33.126 600 500 N° DE PERIODOS DE RETORNO 4 400 Qt (M3/S) A.- 300 200 100 0 10 100 T ( Periodo) 1000 500 Qt (M3/S) 400  Q promedio 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 2.- 33.126 33.126 33.126 33.126 300 200 T (Años) 10 50 100 200 Qt (M3/SEG) 62.432 105.090 123.123 141.091 100 0 10 100 T ( Periodo) METODO DE DISTRIBUCION DE PEARSON III Qi 154.700 43.590 24.920 20.030 14.360 11.930 11.910 11.650 11.600 11.490 9.560 9.050 7.880 7.430 6.490 5.930 5.760 5.710 5.230 5.070 Log Qi 2.1895 1.6394 1.3965 1.3017 1.1572 1.0766 1.0759 1.0663 1.0645 1.0603 0.9805 0.9566 0.8965 0.8710 0.8122 0.7731 0.7604 0.7566 0.7185 0.7050 PROM(Log(Qi Qp 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 19.215 1.0629  (Log Qi-Log(Qp) )^2  (Log( Qi)-Log(Qp) )^3 LogQ Log ( Qp) (Log Qi-Log(Qp) (Log()^2 Qi)-Log(Qp) )^3 F (Exced.) 1.2836 0.8206 0.7433 4.7619 1.2836 0.1266 0.0450 9.5238 1.2836 0.0128 0.0014 14.2857 1.2836 0.0003 0.0000 19.0476 1.2836 0.0160 -0.0020 23.8095 1.2836 0.0428 -0.0089 28.5714 1.2836 0.0431 -0.0090 33.3333 1.2836 0.0472 -0.0103 38.0952 1.2836 0.0480 -0.0105 42.8571 1.2836 0.0499 -0.0111 47.6190 1.2836 0.0919 -0.0279 52.3810 1.2836 0.1069 -0.0350 57.1429 1.2836 0.1498 -0.0580 61.9048 1.2836 0.1703 -0.0703 66.6667 1.2836 0.2222 -0.1047 71.4286 1.2836 0.2607 -0.1331 76.1905 1.2836 0.2737 -0.1432 80.9524 1.2836 0.2777 -0.1464 85.7143 1.2836 0.3194 -0.1805 90.4762 1.2836 0.3348 -0.1937 95.2381 = 3.41481216 -0.35469737 0.42394216 N° DE PERIODOS DE RETORNO 4 1000 N (N° de años) 20 20 20 20 T 10 50 100 200 Cs -0.2722 -0.2722 -0.2722 -0.2722 Csc -0.3539 -0.3539 -0.3539 -0.3539 K 1.128 1.492 1.588 1.664  LogQ PROM(Log(Qi)) 1.0629 0.4239 1.0629 0.4239 1.0629 0.4239 1.0629 0.4239 Log Qt 1.5411 1.6954 1.7361 1.7684 COMPARACION DE LOS METODOS PARA PERIODODS DE RETORNOS DE : 10,50,100 PERIODO DE RQt 10 50 100 200 B.- (GUMBEL) 62.4316219 105.089529 123.123386 141.09144 CAUDAL MEDIO 1.- CURVA DE DURACION FECHA 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Qi (M3/S) Q (orden decreciente) 2.880 46.840 3.210 14.970 5.170 5.170 2.330 4.700 14.970 4.260 1.970 3.600 3.140 3.580 3.260 3.260 3.580 3.260 2.540 3.210 4.700 3.140 3.260 2.980 1.610 2.880 2.980 2.540 4.260 2.410 3.600 2.360 2.000 2.330 2.410 2.000 2.360 1.970 46.840 1.610 m 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 N° DE AÑOS P (Q>=Qo) 20 5 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 35 20 40 20 45 20 50 20 55 20 60 20 65 20 70 20 75 20 80 20 85 20 90 20 95 20 100 CURVA DE DURACION 120 100 Qi 80 60 CURVA DE DURACION 40 20 0 1 10 100 P(Q>=Qo) C.- CAUDAL MÍNIMO CURVA DE FRECUENCIAS EMPIRICAS FECHAQ (MÍNIMO ANUAL) Q(orden decreciente) m (orden) 1979 0.23 2.32 1 1980 0.42 2.18 2 1981 0.98 1.1 3 1982 0.47 0.98 4 1983 2.18 0.82 5 1984 1.1 0.6 6 1985 0.26 0.59 7 1986 0.41 0.47 8 1987 0.31 0.42 9 1988 0.22 0.41 10 1989 0.16 0.39 11 1990 0.24 0.31 12 1991 0.12 0.26 13 1992 0.49 0.24 14 1993 0.6 0.23 15 1994 0.82 0.22 16 No de años Pm = m/(N+1) Tm (Periodo de retorno) 20 0.0476 21.0000 20 0.0952 10.5000 20 0.1429 7.0000 20 0.1905 5.2500 20 0.2381 4.2000 20 0.2857 3.5000 20 0.3333 3.0000 20 0.3810 2.6250 20 0.4286 2.3333 20 0.4762 2.1000 20 0.5238 1.9091 20 0.5714 1.7500 20 0.6190 1.6154 20 0.6667 1.5000 20 0.7143 1.4000 20 0.7619 1.3125 1995 1996 1997 1998 0.21 0.39 0.11 2.32 0.21 0.16 0.12 0.11 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 0.8095 0.8571 0.9048 0.9524 1.2353 1.1667 1.1053 1.0500 CURVA DE FRECUENCIAS EMPIRICAS 1 0.9 0.8 Qi (M^3/S) 0.7 0.6 CURVA DE FRECUENCIAS EMPIRICAS 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Pm : P(Q>= Qo) 2.- CURVA DE DISTRIBUCION DE PROBABILIDADES Q (MÍNIMO AQ(orden decr m (orden) 0.23 2.32 1 0.42 2.18 2 0.98 1.1 3 0.47 0.98 4 2.18 0.82 5 1.1 0.6 6 0.26 0.59 7 0.41 0.47 8 0.31 0.42 9 0.22 0.41 10 0.16 0.39 11 0.24 0.31 12 0.12 0.26 13 0.49 0.24 14 0.6 0.23 15 0.82 0.22 16 No de años Y=P(Q>=QO)Tm = m/(N-1) (Periodo de retorno) 20 0.0526 1.0500 20 0.1053 1.1053 20 0.1579 1.1667 20 0.2105 1.2353 20 0.2632 1.3125 20 0.3158 1.4000 20 0.3684 1.5000 20 0.4211 1.6154 20 0.4737 1.7500 20 0.5263 1.9091 20 0.5789 2.1000 20 0.6316 2.3333 20 0.6842 2.6250 20 0.7368 3.0000 20 0.7895 3.5000 20 0.8421 4.2000 0.21 0.39 0.11 2.32 0.21 0.16 0.12 0.11 Qm 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 0.8947 0.9474 1.0000 1.0526 5.2500 7.0000 10.5000 21.0000 T 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.54 1.55 1.56 1.57 Γ(T) 0.8866 0.887 0.8876 0.8882 0.8889 0.8896 0.8905 T 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.79 1.8 1.81 1.82 0.607  0.62631 Sequia minim 0.11 Y1 (para seq 1.05263158 TN 0.79353675 L = f (TN , N) = 0.6 1.18385127 PARA T (seq (1- L) = 21 9735 0.60687838 T 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 Γ(T) 0.9943 0.9888 0.9835 0.9734 0.9735 0.9687 0.9642 T 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.3 1.31 1.32 Γ(T) 0.9044 0.9025 0.9007 0.899 0.8975 0.896 0.8946 γ γ Γ(T) 0.9214 0.9238 0.9262 0.9288 0.9314 0.9341 0.9368 1.08 1.09 1.1 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.2 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 0.9597 0.9595 0.9514 0.9474 0.9436 0.9399 0.9363 0.933 0.9298 0.9267 0.9237 0.9209 0.9182 0.9156 0.9131 0.9106 0.9085 0.9064 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.4 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.5 0.8934 0.8922 0.8912 0.8902 0.8893 0.8885 0.8879 0.8873 0.8868 0.8864 0.886 0.8858 0.8857 0.8856 0.8856 0.8857 0.8859 0.8862 1.58 1.59 1.6 1.61 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.7 1.71 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.75 0.8914 0.8924 0.8935 0.8947 0.8959 0.8972 0.8986 0.9001 0.9017 0.9033 0.905 0.9068 0.9086 0.9106 0.9126 0.9147 0.9168 0.9191 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.89 1.9 1.91 1.92 1.93 1.94 1.95 1.96 1.97 1.98 1.99 2 0.9397 0.9426 0.9456 0.9487 0.9518 0.9551 0.9584 0.9618 0.9652 0.9688 0.9724 0.9761 0.9799 0.9837 0.9877 0.9917 0.9958 0 DE DESCARGA ENCIA ( NO EXCD.) 1000 1000 Qt 34.7638 49.5955 54.4679 58.6624 RNOS DE : 10,50,100,200 AÑOS