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William C. H. Leon

Nanyang Business School

February 4, 2016

1 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Overview

Hedging with Duration

2 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Overview

Bond price risk is often measured in terms of the bond interest-rate

sensitivity, or duration. This is a one-dimensional measure of the bonds

sensitivity to interest-rate movements.

The traditional hedging method that is intensively used by practitioners is

the duration hedging method. This approach is based on a series of very

restrictive and simplistic assumptions, the assumptions of a small and

parallel shift in the yield-to-maturity (YTM) curve.

There are three related notions of duration: Macaulay duration, $duration

and modied duration.

Macaulay duration is dened as a weighted average maturity for the

portfolio. The Macaulay duration of a bond or bond portfolio is the

investment horizon such that investors with that horizon will not care

if interest rates drop or rise as long as changes are small, as capital

gain risk is oset by reinvestment risk on the period.

3 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Overview

(Continue)

$duration is used to compute the prot and loss of a bond portfolio

for a small change in the YTM. $duration also provides a convenient

hedging strategy: to oset the risks related to a small change in the

level of the yield curve, one should optimally invest in a hedging

asset a proportion equal to the opposite of the ratio of the $duration

of the bond portfolio to be hedged by the $duration of the hedging

instrument.

Modied duration is used to compute the relative prot and loss of a

bond portfolio for a small change in the YTM.

4 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

The basics of bond price movements as a result of interest-rate changes are

best summarized by the ve theorems on the relationship between bond prices

and yields.

As an illustration, consider the percentage price change for 5 bonds with

dierent annual coupon rates (5 and 8%) and dierent maturities (5, 15 and

25 years), starting with a common 8% YTM:

New

Yield (%)

5.00%

7.00%

7.99%

8.01%

9.00%

11.00%

5 / 39

5-Year

13.608%

4.292%

0.042%

0.042%

4.068%

11.585%

5% Coupon

15-Year

34.550%

10.041%

0.094%

0.094%

8.832%

23.502%

William C. H. Leon

25-Year

47.111%

12.824%

0.117%

0.117%

10.689%

27.225%

8% Coupon

5-Year

25-Year

12.988%

42.282%

4.100%

11.654%

0.040%

0.107%

0.040%

0.107%

3.890%

9.823%

11.088% 25.265%

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

Investors must always keep in mind a fundamental fact about the

relationship between bond prices and bond yields: bond prices move

inversely to market yields.

When the level of required yields demanded by investors on new issues

changes, the required yields on all bonds already outstanding will also

change. For these yields to change, the prices of these bonds must change.

This inverse relationship is the basis for understanding, valuing and

managing bonds.

6 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

(2) Holding maturity constant, a decrease in rates will raise bond prices on a

percentage basis more than a corresponding increase in rates will lower bond

prices.

Bond price volatility can work for, as well as against, investors. Money

can be made, and lost, in risk-free Treasury securities as well as in riskier

corporate bonds.

7 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

(3) All things being equal, bond price volatility is an increasing function of

maturity.

Long-term bond prices uctuate more than short-term bond prices.

Although the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates is

the basis of all bond analysis, a complete understanding of bond price

changes as a result of interest-rate changes requires additional

information. An increase in interest rates will cause bond prices to decline,

but the exact amount of decline will depend on important variables unique

to each bond such as time to maturity and coupon.

An important principle is that for a given change in market yields, changes

in bond prices are directly related to time to maturity. Therefore, as

interest rates change, the prices of longer-term bonds will change more

than the prices of shorter-term bonds, everything else being equal.

8 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

(4) The percentage price change that occurs as a result of the direct

relationship between a bonds maturity and its price volatility increases at a

decreasing rate as time to maturity increases.

In other words, the percentage of price change resulting from an increase

in time to maturity increases, but at a decreasing rate.

Put simply, a doubling of the time to maturity will not result in a doubling

of the percentage price change resulting from a change in market yields.

9 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

(5) The change in the price of a bond as a result of a change in interest rates

depends on the coupon rate of the bond.

Holding other things constant, bond price uctuations (volatility) and

bond coupon rates are inversely related.

Note that the above principle holds for percentage price uctuations; this

relationship does not necessarily hold if we measure volatility in terms of

dollar price changes rather than percentage price changes.

10 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

demonstrating how the price of a bond changes as interest rates change.

Although investors have no control over the change and direction in market

rates, they can exercise control over the coupon and maturity, both of which

have signicant eects on bond price changes.

An important distinction needs to be made between two kinds of risk:

Reinvestment risk.

Capital gain risk.

11 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Reinvestment Risk

It is important to note that the YTM is a promised yield, because investors

earn the indicated yield only if the bond is held to maturity and the coupons

are reinvested at the calculated YTM.

Obviously, no trading can be done for a particular bond if the YTM is to

be earned. The investor simply buys and holds. What is not so obvious to

many investors, however, is the reinvestment implications of the YTM

measure.

The YTM calculation assumes that the investor reinvests all coupons

received from a bond at a rate equal to the computed YTM on that bond,

thereby earning interest on interest over the life of the bond at the

computed YTM rate.

If the investor spends the coupons, or reinvests them at a rate dierent

from the YTM, the realized yield that will actually be earned at the

termination of the investment in the bond will dier from the promised

YTM.

12 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Reinvestment Risk

(Continue)

than the computed YTM, resulting in a realized yield that diers from the

promised yield. This gives rise to reinvestment rate risk.

This interest-on-interest concept signicantly aects the potential total

dollar return. The exact impact is a function of coupon and time to

maturity, with reinvestment becoming more important as either coupon or

time to maturity, or both, rise. Specically,

Holding everything else constant, the longer the maturity of a bond,

the greater the reinvestment risk;

Holding everything else constant, the higher the coupon rate, the

greater the dependence of the total dollar return from the bond on

the reinvestment of the coupon payments.

13 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Reinvestment Risk

(Continue)

long-term bonds the interest-on-interest component of the total realized

yield may account for more than 75% of the bonds total dollar return.

Consider a 20-year standard bond purchased at a $100 face value,

which delivers an annual 10% coupon rate. Lets look at realized

yields under dierent assumed reinvestment rates when the bond is

held to maturity:

If the reinvestment rate is exactly 10%, the investor would realize a

10.000% compound return, with 55.407% (= $372.75/$672.75) of

the total dollar return from the bond attributable to the

reinvestment of the coupon payments.

At a 12% reinvestment rate, the investor would realize an 11.098%

compound return, with 63.438% (= $520.52/$820.52) of the total

return coming from interest on interest.

With no reinvestment of coupons (spending them as received), the

investor would achieve only a 5.647% return.

14 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Consider an investor with a horizon of 1 year who buys a 2-year, 10%

semiannual coupon bond at a yield of 8% and a price of 103.630.

Scenario 1: The interest rate drops to 7.8%, soon after the bond is

purchased, and stays there.

The bond price rises immediately to 104.002.

After 6 months, the bond price rises to 108.058 (= 104.002

1.039). At this time, a coupon of 5% is paid, whereupon the price of

the bond drops by an equal amount to 103.058.

The bond increases in value at the end of the year to 107.078 (=

103.058 1.039), while the 5% coupon has been reinvested at an

annual yield of 7.8% and has grown to 5.195 (= 50 1.039), for a

total of 112.273.

Scenario 2: The interest rate rises to 8.2%, and stays there.

The price immediately drops to 103.259.

However, the bond and coupons thereafter rise at the rate of 4.1%

every 6 months, culminating in a value of 111.900 at the end of the

investment horizon.

15 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

As bond yield drops, bond price rises, and vice versa. These create capital

gains and losses for bond investors.

There is an interplay between capital gain risk and reinvestment risk: if interest

rates drop and stay there, there is an immediate appreciation in the value of a

bond portfolio, but the portfolio then grows at a slower rate; on the other

hand, if interest rates rise and stay there, there is a capital loss, but the

portfolio then appreciates more rapidly.

Hence, there is some investment horizon D, such that investors with that

horizon will not care if interest rates drop or rise (as long as the changes are

small). The value of this horizon depends on the characteristics of the bond

portfolio; specically, D is the Macaulay duration of the bond portfolio.

16 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Consider at date t a portfolio of xed-income securities that delivers m certain

cash ows Fi at future dates ti , for i = 1, 2, . . . , m.

The price P of the portfolio (in $ value) can be written as the sum of the

future cash ows discounted with the appropriate zero-coupon rate with

maturity corresponding to the maturity of each cash ow:

Pt =

m

Fi B(t, ti ) =

i =1

m

i =1

Fi

t t ,

1 + R(t, ti t) i

(also called the discount factor) and R(t, ti t) is the associated zero-coupon

rate, starting at date t for a residual maturity of ti t years.

17 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

and of the time variable t. This suggests that the value of the portfolio is

subject to a potentially large number m of risk factors. To hedge the

portfolio, we need to be hedged against a change in all of these factor

risks.

In practice, it is not easy to hedge the risk of so many variables. We must

create a global portfolio containing the portfolio to be hedged in such a

way that the portfolio is insensitive to all sources of risk (the m

interest-rate variables and the time variable t).

One suitable way to simplify the hedging problem is to reduce the number

of risk variables. Duration hedging of a portfolio is based on a single risk

variable, the YTM of this portfolio.

18 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

The idea behind duration hedging is to bypass the complication of a

multidimensional interest-rate risk by identifying a single risk factor, the YTM

of the portfolio, which will serve as a proxy for the whole term structure.

To examine the sensitivity of the price of bond to changes in YTM, write the

price of the portfolio Pt in $ value as a function of a single source of

interest-rate risk, its YTM yt as follow:

Pt = P(yt ) =

m

i =1

Fi

t t .

1 + yt i

in the YTM yt . The YTM is a complex average of the whole term

structure, and it can be regarded as the term structure if and only if the

term structure is at.

19 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

magnitude of value changes dP that are triggered by small changes dy in yield.

We get an approximation of the absolute change in the value of the portfolio as

dP(y ) = P(y + dy ) P(y ) P (y ) dy ,

where

P (y ) =

m

i =1

20 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Fi (ti t)

t t+1 .

1+y i

Hedging with Duration

$Duration

The derivative of the bond value function with respect to the YTM is known as

the $duration (or sensitivity) of portfolio P,

m

Fi (ti t)

$Dur P(y ) = P (y ) =

ti t+1 .

i =1 1 + y

Note that $Dur < 0. This means that the relationship between price and

yield is negative; higher yields imply lower prices.

21 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Modied Duration

Dividing dP(y ) by P(y ), we obtain an approximation of the relative change in

value of the portfolio as

dP(y )

P (y )

dy = MD P(y ) dy ,

P(y )

P(y )

where

m

$Dur P(y )

Fi (ti t)

P (y )

=

=

MD P(y ) =

t t+1

P(y )

P(y )

P(y

)

1+y i

i =1

is known as the modied duration (MD) of portfolio P.

22 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Considering a bond with semiannual coupon payments. From the price of the

bond

P(y ) =

m

i =1

Fi

2(ti t) ,

1 + y2

we obtain the derivative of the bond price with respect to the YTM y as

P (y ) =

m

i =1

Fi (ti t)

2(ti t)+1 .

1 + y2

P (y )

.

$Dur P(y ) = P (y ) and MD P(y ) =

P(y )

23 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

The $duration and the modied duration enable us to compute the absolute

prot and loss (P&L) and the relative P&L of portfolio P for a small change

y of the YTM (e.g., 10 bps or 0.1% as expressed in percentage) using:

Absolute P&L $Dur y ,

Relative P&L MD y .

The $duration and the modied duration are also measures of the

volatility of a bond portfolio.

24 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Another standard measure is the basis point value (BPV), also known as price

value of a basis point (PVBP) and dollar value of a one basis point (DV01),

which is the change in the bond price given a basis point change in the bonds

yield.

BPV is given by the following equation:

BPV =

$Dur

MD P

=

.

10, 000

10, 000

25 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Exercise

Consider below a bond with the following features:

Maturity: 10 years.

Coupon rate: 6%.

YTM: 5%.

Price: 107.72.

Assume that the coupon frequency and compounding frequency are annual.

26 / 39

If the YTM increases by 10 bps, what is the absolute and relative P&L?

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Answer

27 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

There are three dierent notions of duration. We have dened the $duration

and the modied duration, which are used to compute the absolute P&L and

the relative P&L of the bond portfolio for a small change in the YTM.

The third one is the Macaulay duration, and it is dened as

m

Fi (ti t)

P (y )

=

D = D P(y ) = (1 + y )

t t .

P(y )

P(y

) 1+y i

i =1

maturity for the portfolio. The weighted coecient for each maturity

ti t is equal to

i =

28 / 39

Fi

P(y ) 1 + y

William C. H. Leon

ti t .

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

Note that the Macaulay duration is always less than or equal to the

maturity, and is equal to it if and only if the portfolio has only one cash

ow (e.g., zero-coupon bond).

The Macaulay duration of a bond or bond portfolio is the investment

horizon such that investors with that horizon will not care if interest rates

drop or rise as long as changes are small. In other words, capital gain risk

is oset by reinvestment risk.

29 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Exercise

Consider a 3-year standard bond with a 5% YTM and a $100 face value, which

delivers a 5% coupon rate. Coupon frequency and compounding frequency are

assumed to be annual. Its price is $100.

1

Suppose that the YTM changes instantaneously to the following level, and

stays at this new level during the life of the bond.

1

2

3

4

5

6

4%.

4.5%.

4.8%.

5.2%.

5.5%.

6%.

After D years, what is the bond price at the new YTM level? And what is

the amount of reinvested coupons?

30 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Answer

31 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Note that there is a set of simple relationships between the three dierent

durations:

MD =

D

,

1+y

$Dur = MD P =

D

P.

1+y

When the coupon frequency and the compounding frequency of a bond are

assumed to be semiannual, the two relationships are aected in the following

manner:

MD =

D

1+

y

2

$Dur = MD P =

33 / 39

William C. H. Leon

D

1+

y

2

P.

Hedging with Duration

The main properties of Macaulay duration, modied duration and $duration

measures are as follows:

The Macaulay duration of a zero-coupon bond equals its time to maturity.

Holding the maturity and the YTM of a bond constant, the bonds

Macaulay duration (or modied duration or $duration) is higher when the

coupon rate is lower.

Holding the coupon rate and the YTM of a bond constant, its Macaulay

duration (or modied duration) increases with its time to maturity as

$duration decreases.

Holding other factors constant, the Macaulay duration (or modied

duration) of a coupon bond is higher as $duration is lower when the

bonds YTM is lower.

34 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

(Continue)

coupon over an unlimited horizon and with a YTM equal to y is (1 + y )/y .

Macaulay duration is a linear operator. In other words, the Macaulay

duration of a portfolio P invested in n bonds denominated in the same

currency with weights wi is the weighted average of each bonds Macaulay

duration Di :

n

DP =

wi Di .

i =1

Note that this linearity property (also holds for modied duration), is only

true in the context of a at curve. When the YTM curve is no longer at,

this property becomes false and may only be used as an approximation of

the true Macaulay duration (or modied duration).

35 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Hedging in Practice

Suppose we want to hedge a bond portfolio with YTM y and price P(y ) (in $

value).

The idea is to consider one hedging asset with YTM y1 (a priori dierent from

y ), whose price is denoted by H(y1 ), and to build a global portfolio with value

P invested in the initial portfolio and some quantity of the hedging

instrument, i.e.,

P = P(y ) + H(y1 ).

The goal is to make the global portfolio insensitive to small interest-rate

variations. Assuming that the YTM curve is only aected by parallel shifts so

that dy = dy1 , we require

dP = dP(y ) + dH(y1 ) P (y ) + H (y1 ) dy = 0.

36 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Hedging in Practice

(Continue)

Hence,

=

P(y ) MD P(y )

$Dur P(y )

P (y )

.

=

H (y1 )

$Dur H(y1 )

H(y1 ) MD H(y1 )

The optimal amount invested in the hedging asset is simply equal to the

opposite of the ratio of the $duration of the bond portfolio to be hedged

by the $duration of the hedging instrument. The hedge requires taking an

opposite position in the hedging instrument. The idea is that any loss

(gain) with the bond has to be oset by a gain (loss) with the hedging

instrument..

In practice, it is preferable to use futures contracts or swaps instead of

bonds to hedge a bond portfolio because of signicantly lower costs and

higher liquidity.

37 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Hedging Ratio

When standard swaps are used as hedging instruments, the hedge ratio (HR)

S is

$DurP

,

S =

$DurB

where $DurP and $DurB are, respectively, the $duration of the portfolio to be

hedged and that of the xed-coupon bond contained in the swap.

When futures are used as hedging instruments, the HR f is

f =

$DurP

CF ,

$DurCTD

conversion factor.

38 / 39

William C. H. Leon

Hedging with Duration

Another measure commonly used by market participants to hedge their bond

positions is the BPV measure. In this case, the HR is

HR =

BPVB

,

BPVH

Change in yield of the hedging instrument

where BPVB and BPVH are, respectively, the basis point value of the bond to

be hedged and that of the hedging instrument. The second ratio in the

equation is sometimes called the yield ratio.

39 / 39

William C. H. Leon

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