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Operation and supply chain management

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Chapter 03

Forecasting

True / False Questions

1. Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to

exist in the future.

True False

2. For new products in a strong growth mode, a low alpha will minimize forecast errors when

using exponential smoothing techniques.

True False

3. Once accepted by managers, forecasts should be held firm regardless of new input since

many plans have been made using the original forecast.

True False

4. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items

because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

True False

5. Forecasts help managers plan both the system itself and provide valuable information for

using the system.

True False

6. Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a

shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

True False

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

7. When new products or services are introduced, focus forecasting models are an attractive

option.

True False

8. The purpose of the forecast should be established first so that the level of detail, amount of

resources, and accuracy level can be understood.

True False

9. Forecasts based on time series (historical) data are referred to as associative forecasts.

True False

10. Time series techniques involve identification of explanatory variables that can be used to

predict future demand.

True False

11. A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers

since most people enjoy participating in surveys.

True False

12. The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus

forecast.

True False

13. Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha) of last period's forecast to

estimate next period's demand.

True False

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

14. The shorter the forecast period, the more accurately the forecasts tend to track what

actually happens.

True False

15. Forecasting techniques that are based on time series data assume that future values of the

series will duplicate past values.

True False

16. Trend adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast

error to last period's actual demand.

True False

17. Forecasts based on an average tend to exhibit less variability than the original data.

True False

True False

19. The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

True False

20. The naive forecast can serve as a quick and easy standard of comparison against which to

judge the cost and accuracy of other techniques.

True False

21. A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when

more data points are included in the average.

True False

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

22. In order to update a moving average forecast, the values of each data point in the average

must be known.

True False

23. Forecasts of future demand are used by operations people to plan capacity.

True False

24. An advantage of a weighted moving average is that recent actual results can be given

more importance than what occurred a while ago.

True False

True False

26. A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more

quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

True False

27. The T in the model TAF = S+T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed

in weeks or months).

True False

28. Trend adjusted exponential smoothing requires selection of two smoothing constants.

True False

29. An advantage of "trend adjusted exponential smoothing" over the "linear trend equation"

is its ability to adjust over time to changes in the trend.

True False

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

30. A seasonal relative (or seasonal indexes) is expressed as a percentage of average or trend.

True False

31. In order to compute seasonal relatives, the trend of past data must be computed or known

which means that for brand new products this approach can't be used.

True False

32. Removing the seasonal component from a data series (de-seasonalizing) can be

accomplished by dividing each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative.

True False

33. If a pattern appears when a dependent variable is plotted against time, one should use time

series analysis instead of regression analysis.

True False

34. Curvilinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to

relationships that are non-linear or involve more than one predictor variable.

True False

35. The sample standard deviation of forecast error is equal to the square root of MSE.

True False

36. Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

True False

37. MAD is equal to the square root of MSE which is why we calculate the easier MSE and

then calculate the more difficult MAD.

True False

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

38. In exponential smoothing, an alpha of 1.0 will generate the same forecast that a nave

forecast would yield.

True False

39. A forecast method is generally deemed to perform adequately when the errors exhibit an

identifiable pattern.

True False

40. A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error.

True False

41. A tracking signal focuses on the ratio of cumulative forecast error to the corresponding

value of MAD.

True False

42. The use of a control chart assumes that errors are normally distributed about a mean of

zero.

True False

43. Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

True False

True False

forecast.

True False

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

True False

demand, and requires action to be taken to meet that demand.

True False

48. Simple linear regression applies to linear relationships with no more than three

independent variables.

True False

True False

50. Forecasting techniques such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, and the naive

approach all represent smoothed (averaged) values of time series data.

True False

51. In exponential smoothing, an alpha of .30 will cause a forecast to react more quickly to a

large error than will an alpha of .20.

True False

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. executive opinion

B. salesperson opinion

C. second opinions

D. customer surveys

E. Delphi methods

A. capacity planning

B. budgeting

C. sales planning

D. production planning

E. all of the above

54. Which of the following features would not generally be considered common to all

forecasts?

A. Assumption of a stable underlying causal system.

B. Actual results will differ somewhat from predicted values.

C. Historical data is available on which to base the forecast.

D. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items.

E. Accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases.

A. determine the purpose and level of detail required

B. eliminate all assumptions

C. establish a time horizon

D. select a forecasting model

E. monitor the forecast

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

56. Minimizing the sum of the squared deviations around the line is called:

A. mean squared error technique

B. mean absolute deviation

C. double smoothing

D. least squares estimation

E. predictor regression

A. mathematical and statistical

B. qualitative and quantitative

C. judgmental and qualitative

D. historical and associative

E. precise and approximation

A. executive opinions

B. sales force opinions

C. consumer surveys

D. the Delphi method

E. time series analysis

A. MSE

B. MRP

C. MAPE

D. MTM

E. A & C

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

60. Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop

a demand forecast?

A. The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs.

B. The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions.

C. The sales staff is often aware of customers' future plans.

D. Salespeople are least likely to be influenced by recent events.

E. Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas.

A. associative forecast

B. consumer survey

C. series of questionnaires

D. developed in India

E. historical data

62. The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus

forecast is:

A. sales force opinions

B. consumer surveys

C. the Delphi method

D. time series analysis

E. executive opinions

63. One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

A. avoid premature consensus (bandwagon effect)

B. achieve a high degree of accuracy

C. maintain accountability and responsibility

D. be able to replicate results

E. prevent hurt feelings

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. MSEs

B. MAPs

C. Control Charts

D. Correlation Coefficients

E. Strategies

A. seasonal variation

B. cycles

C. irregular variation

D. trend

E. random variation

A. the duration of the repeating patterns

B. the magnitude of the variation

C. the ability to attribute the pattern to a cause

D. the direction of the movement

E. there are only 4 seasons but 30 cycles

A. distinguishing between random and non-random variations

B. smoothing out fluctuations in time series

C. eliminating historical data

D. providing accuracy in forecasts

E. average people

A. Exponential smoothing

B. MAPE

C. Linear decision rules

D. MAD

E. Hindsight

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

69. Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

A. a moving average forecast

B. a naive forecast

C. an exponentially smoothed forecast

D. an associative forecast

E. regression analysis

70. For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for the next period (period

#5)?

A. 58

B. 62

C. 59.5

D. 61

E. cannot tell from the data given

A. immediately reflect changing patterns in the data

B. lead changes in the data

C. smooth variations in the data

D. operate independently of recent data

E. assist when organizations are relocating

72. Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data?

A. smoothes random variations in the data

B. weights each historical value equally

C. lags changes in the data

D. requires only last period's forecast and actual data

E. smoothes real variations in the data

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

73. In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average

technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

A. decreased

B. increased

C. multiplied by a larger alpha

D. multiplied by a smaller alpha

E. eliminated if the MAD is greater than the MSE

74. A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

A. a naive forecast

B. a simple moving average forecast

C. a centered moving average forecast

D. an exponentially smoothed forecast

E. an associative forecast

A. smoothes random variations in the data

B. weights each historical value equally

C. has an easily altered weighting scheme

D. has minimal data storage requirements

E. smoothes real variations in the data

76. Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing

forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

A. 0

B. .01

C. .1

D. .5

E. 1.0

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

77. Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of

66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. The next forecast is 66.6, implying a

smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:

A. .01

B. .10

C. .15

D. .20

E. .60

78. Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would

the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

A. 36.9

B. 57.5

C. 60.5

D. 62.5

E. 65.5

79. Given an actual demand of 105, a forecasted value of 97, and an alpha of .4, the simple

exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be:

A. 80.8

B. 93.8

C. 100.2

D. 101.8

E. 108.2

80. Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to

respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

A. 0

B. .01

C. .05

D. .10

E. .15

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

81. A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Yt = 40,000 + 150t.

What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year?

A. 40,450

B. 40,600

C. 42,100

D. 42,250

E. 42,400

82. In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend adjusted forecast (TAF) consists of:

A. an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor

B. an exponentially smoothed forecast and an estimated trend value

C. the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor

D. the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor

E. a moving average and a trend factor

adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a

__________ adjustment to the average.

A. quantity, percentage

B. percentage, quantity

C. quantity, quantity

D. percentage, percentage

E. qualitative, quantitative

A. double smoothing

B. Delphi

C. Mean Squared Error (MSE)

D. centered moving average

E. exponential smoothing

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

85. A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is

called:

A. bias

B. tracking

C. control charting

D. positive correlation

E. linear regression

86. Which of the following might be used to indicate the cyclical component of a forecast?

A. leading variable

B. Mean Squared Error (MSE)

C. Delphi technique

D. exponential smoothing

E. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

A. sensitivity analysis

B. regression analysis

C. simple moving averages

D. centered moving averages

E. exponential smoothing

A. time series data

B. expert opinions

C. Delphi technique

D. consumer survey

E. predictor variables

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

89. Which of the following corresponds to the predictor variable in simple linear regression?

A. regression coefficient

B. dependent variable

C. independent variable

D. predicted variable

E. demand coefficient

A. estimate the trend line

B. eliminate forecast errors

C. measure forecast accuracy

D. seasonally adjust the forecast

E. all of the above

91. Given forecast errors of 4, 8, and - 3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

A. 4

B. 3

C. 5

D. 6

E. 12

92. Given forecast errors of 5, 0, - 4, and 3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

A. 4

B. 3

C. 2.5

D. 2

E. 1

A. - 4

B. 4

C. 5

D. 12

E. 6

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. mean absolute deviation (MAD)

B. mean squared error (MSE)

C. tracking signal (TS)

D. bias

E. none of the above

95. The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are:

A. cost and time horizon

B. accuracy and time horizon

C. cost and accuracy

D. quantity and quality

E. objective and subjective components

A. none

B. low

C. moderate

D. high

E. total

A. estimate of accuracy

B. timeliness

C. meaningful units

D. low cost

E. written

98. Current information on _________ can have a significant impact on forecast accuracy:

A. prices

B. promotion

C. inventory

D. competition

E. all of the above

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

99. A managerial approach toward forecasting which seeks to actively influence demand is:

A. reactive

B. proactive

C. influential

D. protracted

E. retroactive

A. mission statements

B. control charting

C. short term forecast accuracy

D. exponential smoothing

E. customer selection

101. Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average

forecast for period 6?

A. 67

B. 115

C. 69

D. 68

E. 68.67

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

102. Given the following historical data and weights of .5, .3, and .2, what is the three-period

moving average forecast for period 5?

A. 144.20

B. 144.80

C. 144.67

D. 143.00

E. 144.00

A. Variations around the line are random.

B. Deviations around the line are normally distributed.

C. Predictions are to be made only within the range of observed values of the predictor

variable.

D. all of the above

E. none of the above

104. Given forecast errors of - 5, - 10, and +15, the MAD is:

A. 0

B. 10

C. 30

D. 175

E. none of these

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

Essay Questions

105. Develop a forecast for the next period, given the data below, using a 3-period moving

average.

Using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, and assuming the forecast for period 11 was 80,

what would the forecast for period 14 be?

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

branch of a department store chain. Given a previous forecast of 140 items, an actual number

of returns of 148 items, and a smoothing constant equal to .15, what is the forecast for the

next period?

108. A manager is using the equation below to forecast quarterly demand for a product:

Yt = 6,000 + 80t where t = 0 at Q2 of last year

Quarter relatives are Q1 = .6, Q2 = .9, Q3 = 1.3, and Q4 = 1.2.

What forecasts are appropriate for the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next

year?

109. Over the past five years, a firm's sales have averaged 250 units in the first quarter of each

year, 100 units in the second quarter, 150 units in the third quarter, and 300 units in the fourth

quarter. What are appropriate quarter relatives for this firm's sales? Hint: Only minimal

computations are necessary.

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

110. A manager has been using a certain technique to forecast demand for gallons of ice

cream for the past six periods. Actual and predicted amounts are shown below. Would a naive

forecast have produced better results?

111. A new car dealer has been using exponential smoothing with an alpha of .2 to forecast

weekly new car sales. Given the data below, would a naive forecast have provided greater

accuracy? Explain. Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 (i.e., no

forecast for period 1).

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

112. A CPA firm has been using the following equation to predict annual demand for tax

audits: Yt = 55 + 4t Demand for the past few years is shown below. Is the forecast performing

as well as it might? Explain.

113. Given the data below, develop a forecast for period 6 using a four-period weighted

moving average and weights of .4, .3, .2 and .1

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

114. Use linear regression to develop a predictive model for demand for burial vaults based on

sales of caskets.

115. Given the following data, develop a linear regression model for y as a function of x.

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

116. Given the following data, develop a linear regression model for y as a function of x.

117. Develop a linear trend equation for the data on bread deliveries shown below. Forecast

deliveries for period 11 through 14.

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

118. The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic

year based on the following historical data:

What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

A. 18,750

B. 19,500

C. 21,000

D. 22,000

E. 22,800

Essay Questions

1) a 3-period moving average

2) exponential smoothing with alpha equal to .20 (use a nave forecast for April for your first

forecast)

B) If the naive approach had been used to predict demand for April through June, what would

MAD have been for those months?

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

120. A manager wants to choose one of two forecasting alternatives. Each alternative was

tested using historical data. The resulting forecast errors for the two are shown in the table.

Analyze the data and recommend a course of action to the manager.

121. A manager uses this equation to predict demand: Yt = 20 + 4t. Over the past 8 periods,

demand has been as follows. Are the results acceptable? Explain.

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

Multiple Choice Questions

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year

based on the following historical data:

122. What is the forecast for this year using a four-year simple moving average?

A. 18,750

B. 19,500

C. 21,000

D. 22,650

E. 22,800

123. What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5, if the

forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

A. 18,750

B. 19,500

C. 21,000

D. 22,650

E. 22,800

124. What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 18,750

B. 19,500

C. 21,000

D. 22,650

E. 22,800

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

125. What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .

05 and beta = 0.3, if the forecast for last year was 21,000, the forecast for two years ago was

19,000, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

A. 18,750

B. 19,500

C. 21,000

D. 22,650

E. 22,800

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD

decoders based on the following historical data:

126. What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

A. 163

B. 180

C. 300

D. 420

E. 510

127. What is the forecast for this year using a three-year weighted moving average with

weights of .5, .3, and .2?

A. 163

B. 180

C. 300

D. 420

E. 510

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

128. What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if the

forecast for two years ago was 750?

A. 163

B. 180

C. 300

D. 420

E. 510

129. What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 163

B. 180

C. 300

D. 420

E. 510

130. What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha =

0.3 and beta = 0.2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was

430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -150?

A. 162.4

B. 180.3

C. 301.4

D. 403.2

E. 510.0

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He

needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the

following data:

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. 45

B. 50

C. 52

D. 65

E. 78

132. What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?

A. 49

B. 50

C. 52

D. 65

E. 78

133. What is this week's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if the forecast

for two weeks ago was 90?

A. 49

B. 50

C. 52

D. 65

E. 77

134. What is this week's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 49

B. 50

C. 52

D. 65

E. 78

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

135. What is this week's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.5

and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75,

and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was -5?

A. 49.3

B. 50.6

C. 51.3

D. 65.4

E. 78.7

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the

following historical data:

A. 22,000

B. 20,000

C. 18,000

D. 15,000

E. 12,000

137. What is this year's forecast using a two-year weighted moving average with weights of .7

and .3?

A. 19,400

B. 18,600

C. 19,000

D. 11,400

E. 10,600

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

138. What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if last year's

smoothed forecast was 15,000?

A. 20,000

B. 19,000

C. 17,500

D. 16,000

E. 15,000

139. What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 20,000

B. 21,000

C. 22,000

D. 23,000

E. 24,000

140. The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year.

What was the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for these forecasts?

A. 100

B. 200

C. 400

D. 500

E. 800

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer

session classes based on the following historical data:

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. 2,000

B. 2,200

C. 2,800

D. 3,000

E. none of the above

142. What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?

A. 2,667

B. 2,600

C. 2,500

D. 2,400

E. 2,333

143. What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year's

smoothed forecast was 2600?

A. 2,600

B. 2,760

C. 2,800

D. 3,840

E. 3,000

144. What is the annual rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 0

B. 200

C. 400

D. 180

E. 360

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

145. What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 3,600

B. 3,500

C. 3,400

D. 3,300

E. 3,200

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's)

demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:

A. 100

B. 160

C. 130

D. 140

E. 120

147. What is this month's forecast using a four-month weighted moving average with weights

of .4, .3, .2, and .1?

A. 120

B. 129

C. 141

D. 135

E. 140

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

148. What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if August's

forecast was 145?

A. 144

B. 140

C. 142

D. 148

E. 163

149. What is the monthly rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 320

B. 102

C. 8

D. -0.4

E. -8

150. What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 1,250

B. 128.6

C. 102

D. 158

E. 164

151. Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result

from improving short term forecast performance?

A. increased inventory

B. reduced flexibility

C. higher-quality products

D. greater customer satisfaction

E. greater seasonality

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

152. Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short term

forecasting?

A. bringing greater variety into the product mix

B. increasing the flexibility of the production system

C. ordering fewer weather-sensitive items

D. adding more special-purpose equipment

E. none of the above

153. Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?

A. contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long term forecasts

B. penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecasts

C. sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain

D. increasing lead times for critical supply chain members

E. increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chain

A. shortages or excesses of materials

B. reduced customer service

C. excess capacity

D. missed deliveries

E. all of the above

155. Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can

bring into forecasting situations?

A. what customers are most likely to do in the future

B. what customers most want to do in the future

C. what customers' future plans are

D. whether customers are satisfied or dissatisfied with their performance in the past

E. what the salesperson's appropriate sales quota should be

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

Essay Questions

157. What is this year's forecast using a four-year simple moving average?

158. What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .25, if last year's

smoothed forecast was 45?

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

159. What are this and next year's forecasts using the least squares trend line for these data?

160. What is this year's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.2 and

beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the

trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7?

161. What is the centered moving average for spring two years ago?

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

163. What is the linear regression trend line for these data (t = 0 for spring, three years ago)?

164. What is this year's seasonally adjusted forecast for each season?

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

1. Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to

exist in the future.

TRUE

Forecasts depend on the rules of the game remaining reasonably constant.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-03 Evaluate at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

Topic Area: Features Common to All Forecasts

2. For new products in a strong growth mode, a low alpha will minimize forecast errors when

using exponential smoothing techniques.

FALSE

If growth is strong, alpha should be large so that the model will catch up more quickly.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3. Once accepted by managers, forecasts should be held firm regardless of new input since

many plans have been made using the original forecast.

FALSE

Flexibility to accommodate major changes is important to good forecasting.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Steps in the Forecasting Process

3-42

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

4. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items

because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

FALSE

Forecasting for an individual item is more difficult than forecasting for a number of items.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Features Common to All Forecasts

5. Forecasts help managers plan both the system itself and provide valuable information for

using the system.

TRUE

Both planning and use are shaped by forecasts.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-01 List the elements of a good forecast.

Topic Area: Introduction

6. Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a

shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

TRUE

If an organization can react quicker, its forecasts need not be so long term.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Elements of a Good Forecast

3-43

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

7. When new products or services are introduced, focus forecasting models are an attractive

option.

FALSE

Because focus forecasting models depend on historical data, they're not so attractive for newly

introduced products or services.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

8. The purpose of the forecast should be established first so that the level of detail, amount of

resources, and accuracy level can be understood.

TRUE

All of these considerations are shaped by what the forecast will be used for.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Steps in the Forecasting Process

9. Forecasts based on time series (historical) data are referred to as associative forecasts.

FALSE

Forecasts based on time series data are referred to as time-series forecasts.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

3-44

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

10. Time series techniques involve identification of explanatory variables that can be used to

predict future demand.

FALSE

Associate forecasts involve identifying explanatory variables.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-04 Compare and contrast qualitative and quantitative approaches to forecasting.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

11. A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers

since most people enjoy participating in surveys.

FALSE

Most people do not enjoy participating in surveys.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-03 Evaluate at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

Topic Area: Qualitative Forecasts

12. The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus

forecast.

TRUE

A consensus among divergent perspectives is developed using questionnaires.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-03 Evaluate at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

Topic Area: Qualitative Forecasts

3-45

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

13. Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha) of last period's forecast to

estimate next period's demand.

FALSE

Exponential smoothing adds a percentage to the last period's forecast error.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

14. The shorter the forecast period, the more accurately the forecasts tend to track what

actually happens.

TRUE

Long-term forecasting is much more difficult to do accurately.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Monitoring the Forecast

15. Forecasting techniques that are based on time series data assume that future values of the

series will duplicate past values.

FALSE

Time-series forecast assume that future patterns in the series will mimic past patterns in the

series.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-46

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

16. Trend adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast

error to last period's actual demand.

FALSE

Trend adjusted smoothing smoothes both random and trend-related variation.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

17. Forecasts based on an average tend to exhibit less variability than the original data.

TRUE

Averaging is a way of smoothing out random variability.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

FALSE

The nave approach is useful in a wider variety of settings.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-47

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

19. The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

FALSE

When a trend or seasonality is present, the nave forecast is more limited in its application.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

20. The naive forecast can serve as a quick and easy standard of comparison against which to

judge the cost and accuracy of other techniques.

TRUE

Often the nave forecast performs reasonably well when compared to more complex

techniques.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

21. A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when

more data points are included in the average.

FALSE

More data points reduce a moving average forecast's responsiveness.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-48

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

22. In order to update a moving average forecast, the values of each data point in the average

must be known.

TRUE

The moving average cannot be updated until the most recent value is known.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

23. Forecasts of future demand are used by operations people to plan capacity.

TRUE

Capacity decisions are made for the future and therefore depend on forecasts.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-01 List the elements of a good forecast.

Topic Area: Introduction

24. An advantage of a weighted moving average is that recent actual results can be given

more importance than what occurred a while ago.

TRUE

Weighted moving averages can be adjusted to make more recent data more important in

setting the forecast.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-49

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

TRUE

The most recent period is given the most weight, but prior periods also factor in.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

26. A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more

quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

FALSE

Smaller smoothing constants result in less reactive forecast models.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

27. The T in the model TAF = S+T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed

in weeks or months).

FALSE

The T represents the trend dimension.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-50

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

28. Trend adjusted exponential smoothing requires selection of two smoothing constants.

TRUE

One is for the trend and one is for the random error.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

29. An advantage of "trend adjusted exponential smoothing" over the "linear trend equation"

is its ability to adjust over time to changes in the trend.

TRUE

A linear trend equation assumes a constant trend; trend adjusted smoothing allows for changes

in the underlying trend.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

30. A seasonal relative (or seasonal indexes) is expressed as a percentage of average or trend.

TRUE

Seasonal relatives are used when the seasonal effect is multiplicative rather than additive.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-51

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

31. In order to compute seasonal relatives, the trend of past data must be computed or known

which means that for brand new products this approach can't be used.

TRUE

Computing seasonal relatives depends on past data being available.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

32. Removing the seasonal component from a data series (de-seasonalizing) can be

accomplished by dividing each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative.

TRUE

Deseasonalized data points have been adjusted for seasonal influences.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

33. If a pattern appears when a dependent variable is plotted against time, one should use time

series analysis instead of regression analysis.

TRUE

Patterns reflect influences such as trends or seasonality that go against regression analysis

assumptions.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-08 Assess the major factors and trade-offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

3-52

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

34. Curvilinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to

relationships that are non-linear or involve more than one predictor variable.

TRUE

Regression analysis can be used in a variety of settings.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-08 Assess the major factors and trade-offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

35. The sample standard deviation of forecast error is equal to the square root of MSE.

TRUE

The MSE is equal to the sample variance of the forecast error.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

36. Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

TRUE

The association between two variations is summarized in the correlation coefficient.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

3-53

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

37. MAD is equal to the square root of MSE which is why we calculate the easier MSE and

then calculate the more difficult MAD.

FALSE

MAD is the mean absolute deviation.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

38. In exponential smoothing, an alpha of 1.0 will generate the same forecast that a nave

forecast would yield.

TRUE

With alpha equal to 1 we are using a nave forecasting method.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

39. A forecast method is generally deemed to perform adequately when the errors exhibit an

identifiable pattern.

FALSE

Forecast methods are generally considered to be performing adequately when the errors

appear to be randomly distributed.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

3-54

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

40. A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error.

FALSE

Control charts set action limits for the tracking signal.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Monitoring the Forecast

41. A tracking signal focuses on the ratio of cumulative forecast error to the corresponding

value of MAD.

TRUE

Large absolute values of the tracking signal suggest a fundamental change in the forecast

model's performance.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Monitoring the Forecast

42. The use of a control chart assumes that errors are normally distributed about a mean of

zero.

TRUE

Over time, a forecast model's tracking signal should fluctuate randomly about a mean of zero.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Monitoring the Forecast

3-55

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

43. Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

TRUE

A tendency in one direction is defined as bias.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Monitoring the Forecast

TRUE

Bias would result in the cumulative sum of forecast errors being large in absolute value.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Monitoring the Forecast

forecast.

TRUE

Seasonal relatives are used to de-seasonalize data to forecast future values of the underlying

trend, and they are also used to re-seasonalize de-seasonalized forecasts.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-56

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

TRUE

More accuracy often comes at too high a cost to be worthwhile.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-08 Assess the major factors and trade-offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique.

Topic Area: Elements of a Good Forecast

demand, and requires action to be taken to meet that demand.

FALSE

Proactive approaches involve taking action to influence demand.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Using Forecast Information

48. Simple linear regression applies to linear relationships with no more than three

independent variables.

FALSE

Simple linear regression involves only one independent variable.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

3-57

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

FALSE

Regardless of the model chosen, so long as there is no fundamental bias average forecast error

will be zero.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

50. Forecasting techniques such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, and the naive

approach all represent smoothed (averaged) values of time series data.

FALSE

The nave approach involves no smoothing.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

51. In exponential smoothing, an alpha of .30 will cause a forecast to react more quickly to a

large error than will an alpha of .20.

TRUE

Larger values for alpha result in more responsive models.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-58

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. executive opinion

B. salesperson opinion

C. second opinions

D. customer surveys

E. Delphi methods

Second opinions generally refer to medical diagnoses, not demand forecasting.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-03 Evaluate at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

Topic Area: Qualitative Forecasts

A. capacity planning

B. budgeting

C. sales planning

D. production planning

E. all of the above

A wide variety of areas depend on forecasting.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Features Common to All Forecasts

3-59

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

54. Which of the following features would not generally be considered common to all

forecasts?

A. Assumption of a stable underlying causal system.

B. Actual results will differ somewhat from predicted values.

C. Historical data is available on which to base the forecast.

D. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items.

E. Accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases.

In some forecasting situations historical data are not available.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-08 Assess the major factors and trade-offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique.

Topic Area: Features Common to All Forecasts

A. determine the purpose and level of detail required

B. eliminate all assumptions

C. establish a time horizon

D. select a forecasting model

E. monitor the forecast

We cannot eliminate all assumptions.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Features Common to All Forecasts

3-60

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

56. Minimizing the sum of the squared deviations around the line is called:

A. mean squared error technique

B. mean absolute deviation

C. double smoothing

D. least squares estimation

E. predictor regression

Least squares estimations minimizes the sum of squared deviations around the estimated

regression function.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

A. mathematical and statistical

B. qualitative and quantitative

C. judgmental and qualitative

D. historical and associative

E. precise and approximation

Forecast approaches are either quantitative or qualitative.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-04 Compare and contrast qualitative and quantitative approaches to forecasting.

Topic Area: Approaches to Forecasting

3-61

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. executive opinions

B. sales force opinions

C. consumer surveys

D. the Delphi method

E. time series analysis

Time series analysis is a quantitative approach.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-03 Evaluate at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

Topic Area: Qualitative Forecasts

A. MSE

B. MRP

C. MAPE

D. MTM

E. A & C

MSE is mean squared error; MAPE is mean absolute percent error.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

3-62

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

60. Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop

a demand forecast?

A. The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs.

B. The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions.

C. The sales staff is often aware of customers' future plans.

D. Salespeople are least likely to be influenced by recent events.

E. Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas.

Members of the sales force should be the organization's tightest link with its customers.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-03 Evaluate at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

Topic Area: Qualitative Forecasts

A. associative forecast

B. consumer survey

C. series of questionnaires

D. developed in India

E. historical data

The questionnaires are a way of fostering a consensus among divergent perspectives.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-03 Evaluate at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

Topic Area: Qualitative Forecasts

3-63

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

62. The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus

forecast is:

A. sales force opinions

B. consumer surveys

C. the Delphi method

D. time series analysis

E. executive opinions

Anonymity is important in Delphi efforts.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-03 Evaluate at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

Topic Area: Qualitative Forecasts

63. One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

A. avoid premature consensus (bandwagon effect)

B. achieve a high degree of accuracy

C. maintain accountability and responsibility

D. be able to replicate results

E. prevent hurt feelings

A bandwagon can lead to popular but potentially inaccurate viewpoints to drown up other

important considerations.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-03 Evaluate at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

Topic Area: Qualitative Forecasts

3-64

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. MSEs

B. MAPs

C. Control Charts

D. Correlation Coefficients

E. Strategies

Control charts graphically depict the statistical behavior of forecast errors.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Approaches to Forecasting

A. seasonal variation

B. cycles

C. irregular variation

D. trend

E. random variation

Trends move the time series in a long-term direction.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-65

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. the duration of the repeating patterns

B. the magnitude of the variation

C. the ability to attribute the pattern to a cause

D. the direction of the movement

E. there are only 4 seasons but 30 cycles

Seasons happen within time periods; cycles happen across multiple time periods.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

A. distinguishing between random and non-random variations

B. smoothing out fluctuations in time series

C. eliminating historical data

D. providing accuracy in forecasts

E. average people

Smoothing helps forecasters see past random error.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-66

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. Exponential smoothing

B. MAPE

C. Linear decision rules

D. MAD

E. Hindsight

MAPE depicts the forecast error relative to what was being forecast.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Monitoring the Forecast

69. Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

A. a moving average forecast

B. a naive forecast

C. an exponentially smoothed forecast

D. an associative forecast

E. regression analysis

Only one piece of information is needed for a nave forecast.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-67

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

70. For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for the next period (period

#5)?

A. 58

B. 62

C. 59.5

D. 61

E. cannot tell from the data given

Period 5's forecast would be period 4's demand.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

A. immediately reflect changing patterns in the data

B. lead changes in the data

C. smooth variations in the data

D. operate independently of recent data

E. assist when organizations are relocating

Variation is smoothed out in moving average forecasts.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-68

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

72. Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data?

A. smoothes random variations in the data

B. weights each historical value equally

C. lags changes in the data

D. requires only last period's forecast and actual data

E. smoothes real variations in the data

Simple moving averages can require several periods of data.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

73. In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average

technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

A. decreased

B. increased

C. multiplied by a larger alpha

D. multiplied by a smaller alpha

E. eliminated if the MAD is greater than the MSE

Fewer data points result in more responsive moving averages.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-69

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

74. A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

A. a naive forecast

B. a simple moving average forecast

C. a centered moving average forecast

D. an exponentially smoothed forecast

E. an associative forecast

Exponential smoothing uses the previous forecast error to shape the next forecast.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

A. smoothes random variations in the data

B. weights each historical value equally

C. has an easily altered weighting scheme

D. has minimal data storage requirements

E. smoothes real variations in the data

The most recent period of demand is given the most weight in exponential smoothing.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-70

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

76. Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing

forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

A. 0

B. .01

C. .1

D. .5

E. 1.0

An alpha of 1.0 leads to a nave forecast.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

77. Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of

66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. The next forecast is 66.6, implying a

smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:

A. .01

B. .10

C. .15

D. .20

E. .60

A previous period's forecast error of 4 units would lead to a change in the forecast of 0.6 if

alpha equals 0.15.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-71

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

78. Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would

the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

A. 36.9

B. 57.5

C. 60.5

D. 62.5

E. 65.5

Multiply the previous period's forecast error (-5) by alpha and then add to the previous

period's forecast.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

79. Given an actual demand of 105, a forecasted value of 97, and an alpha of .4, the simple

exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be:

A. 80.8

B. 93.8

C. 100.2

D. 101.8

E. 108.2

Multiply the previous period's forecast error (8) by alpha and then add to the previous period's

forecast.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-72

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

80. Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to

respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

A. 0

B. .01

C. .05

D. .10

E. .15

Larger values for alpha correspond with greater responsiveness.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

81. A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Yt = 40,000 + 150t.

What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year?

A. 40,450

B. 40,600

C. 42,100

D. 42,250

E. 42,400

July would be period 3, so the forecast would be 40,000 + 150(3).

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-73

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

82. In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend adjusted forecast (TAF) consists of:

A. an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor

B. an exponentially smoothed forecast and an estimated trend value

C. the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor

D. the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor

E. a moving average and a trend factor

Both random variation and the trend are smoothed in TAF models.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a

__________ adjustment to the average.

A. quantity, percentage

B. percentage, quantity

C. quantity, quantity

D. percentage, percentage

E. qualitative, quantitative

The additive model simply adds a seasonal adjustment to the de-seasonalized forecast. The

multiplicative model adjusts the de-seasonalized forecast by multiplying it by a season

relative or index.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-74

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. double smoothing

B. Delphi

C. Mean Squared Error (MSE)

D. centered moving average

E. exponential smoothing

The centered moving average serves as the basis point for computing seasonal relatives.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

85. A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is

called:

A. bias

B. tracking

C. control charting

D. positive correlation

E. linear regression

Bias is a tendency for a forecast to be above (or below) the actual value.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

3-75

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

86. Which of the following might be used to indicate the cyclical component of a forecast?

A. leading variable

B. Mean Squared Error (MSE)

C. Delphi technique

D. exponential smoothing

E. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Leading variables, such as births in a given year, can correlate strongly with long-term

phenomena such as cycles.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

A. sensitivity analysis

B. regression analysis

C. simple moving averages

D. centered moving averages

E. exponential smoothing

Regression analysis is an associative forecasting technique.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

3-76

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. time series data

B. expert opinions

C. Delphi technique

D. consumer survey

E. predictor variables

Associate techniques use predictor variables.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

89. Which of the following corresponds to the predictor variable in simple linear regression?

A. regression coefficient

B. dependent variable

C. independent variable

D. predicted variable

E. demand coefficient

Demand is the typical dependent variable when forecasting with simple linear regression.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

3-77

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. estimate the trend line

B. eliminate forecast errors

C. measure forecast accuracy

D. seasonally adjust the forecast

E. all of the above

MAD is one way of evaluating forecast performance.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

91. Given forecast errors of 4, 8, and - 3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

A. 4

B. 3

C. 5

D. 6

E. 12

Convert each error into an absolute value and then average.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

3-78

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

92. Given forecast errors of 5, 0, - 4, and 3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

A. 4

B. 3

C. 2.5

D. 2

E. 1

Convert each error into an absolute value and then average.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

A. - 4

B. 4

C. 5

D. 12

E. 6

Sum the forecast errors.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

3-79

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. mean absolute deviation (MAD)

B. mean squared error (MSE)

C. tracking signal (TS)

D. bias

E. none of the above

The mean squared error leads to an estimate for the sample forecast standard deviation.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Approaches to Forecasting

95. The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are:

A. cost and time horizon

B. accuracy and time horizon

C. cost and accuracy

D. quantity and quality

E. objective and subjective components

More accurate forecasts cost more but may not be worth the additional cost.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-08 Assess the major factors and trade-offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique.

Topic Area: Choosing a Forecasting Techniques

3-80

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. none

B. low

C. moderate

D. high

E. total

Short range forecasting tends to be fairly routine.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-08 Assess the major factors and trade-offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique.

Topic Area: Choosing a Forecasting Techniques

A. estimate of accuracy

B. timeliness

C. meaningful units

D. low cost

E. written

A good forecast can be quite costly if necessary.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-01 List the elements of a good forecast.

Topic Area: Elements of a Good Forecast

3-81

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

98. Current information on _________ can have a significant impact on forecast accuracy:

A. prices

B. promotion

C. inventory

D. competition

E. all of the above

Demand in the future could be subject to decision-making prompted by prices, promotions,

inventory or competition. Accuracy will be affected if these are (or are not) taken into

consideration.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

99. A managerial approach toward forecasting which seeks to actively influence demand is:

A. reactive

B. proactive

C. influential

D. protracted

E. retroactive

Simply responding to demand is a reactive approach.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Using Forecast Information

3-82

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. mission statements

B. control charting

C. short term forecast accuracy

D. exponential smoothing

E. customer selection

More accurate short-term forecasts enable organization's to better accommodate customer

requests.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-08 Assess the major factors and trade-offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique.

Topic Area: Operations Strategy

101. Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average

forecast for period 6?

A. 67

B. 115

C. 69

D. 68

E. 68.67

Average demand from periods 3 through 5.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-83

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

102. Given the following historical data and weights of .5, .3, and .2, what is the three-period

moving average forecast for period 5?

A. 144.20

B. 144.80

C. 144.67

D. 143.00

E. 144.00

Multiply period 4 (144) by .5, period 3 (148) by .3 and period 2 (142) by .2, then sum these

products.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

A. Variations around the line are random.

B. Deviations around the line are normally distributed.

C. Predictions are to be made only within the range of observed values of the predictor

variable.

D. all of the above

E. none of the above

A through C are important assumptions underpinning simple linear regression.

Bloom's: Remember

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

3-84

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

104. Given forecast errors of - 5, - 10, and +15, the MAD is:

A. 0

B. 10

C. 30

D. 175

E. none of these

Convert these errors into absolute value, then average.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

Essay Questions

105. Develop a forecast for the next period, given the data below, using a 3-period moving

average.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-85

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

Using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, and assuming the forecast for period 11 was 80,

what would the forecast for period 14 be?

Feedback: The forecast error in period 13 (2.84) is multiplied by the smoothing constant. This

is then added to the period 13 forecast to get the period 14 forecast.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

branch of a department store chain. Given a previous forecast of 140 items, an actual number

of returns of 148 items, and a smoothing constant equal to .15, what is the forecast for the

next period?

Feedback: The forecast error in the previous period is multiplied by the smoothing constant.

This is then added to the previous period's forecast to get the upcoming period's forecast.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-86

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

108. A manager is using the equation below to forecast quarterly demand for a product:

Yt = 6,000 + 80t where t = 0 at Q2 of last year

Quarter relatives are Q1 = .6, Q2 = .9, Q3 = 1.3, and Q4 = 1.2.

What forecasts are appropriate for the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next

year?

For Q4 of this year t = 6

For Q1 of next year t = 7

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

109. Over the past five years, a firm's sales have averaged 250 units in the first quarter of each

year, 100 units in the second quarter, 150 units in the third quarter, and 300 units in the fourth

quarter. What are appropriate quarter relatives for this firm's sales? Hint: Only minimal

computations are necessary.

Feedback: Since a trend is not present, quarter relatives are simply a percentage of average,

which is 200 units.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-87

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

110. A manager has been using a certain technique to forecast demand for gallons of ice

cream for the past six periods. Actual and predicted amounts are shown below. Would a naive

forecast have produced better results?

Summary:

Current method: MAD = 3.67; MSE = 16.8; 2s Control limits 8.2 (OK)

Nave method: MAD = 4.40; MSE = 30.0; 2s Control limits 11.0 (OK)

Feedback: Either MSE or MAD should be computed for both forecasts and compared. The

demand data are stable. Therefore, the most recent value of the series is a reasonable forecast

for the next period of time, justifying the nave approach. The current method is slightly

superior both in terms of MAD and MSE. Either method would be considered in control.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

3-88

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

111. A new car dealer has been using exponential smoothing with an alpha of .2 to forecast

weekly new car sales. Given the data below, would a naive forecast have provided greater

accuracy? Explain. Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 (i.e., no

forecast for period 1).

Summary:

Exponential method: MAD = 1.70; MSE = 6.34

Nave method: MAD = 3.00; MSE = 15.25

Feedback: The exponential forecast method appears to be superior because both MAD and

MSE are lower when it is used.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

3-89

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

112. A CPA firm has been using the following equation to predict annual demand for tax

audits: Yt = 55 + 4t Demand for the past few years is shown below. Is the forecast performing

as well as it might? Explain.

= 3.41. Even with 2s limits (6.82) all values are within the

limits. It seems, then, that only random variation is present, so one might say that the forecast

is working. One might also observe that the first three errors are negative and the last three are

positive. Although six observations constitute a relatively small sample, it may be that the

errors are cycling, and this would be a matter to investigate with additional data.

Feedback: Either a tracking signal or a control chart is called for. To conduct these

assessments, it is necessary to generate the forecasts so that errors can be determined.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-90

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

113. Given the data below, develop a forecast for period 6 using a four-period weighted

moving average and weights of .4, .3, .2 and .1

Feedback: Multiply demand observed in periods 2 through 5 by the appropriate weight, then

sum these products.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-91

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

114. Use linear regression to develop a predictive model for demand for burial vaults based on

sales of caskets.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

3-92

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

115. Given the following data, develop a linear regression model for y as a function of x.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

3-93

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

116. Given the following data, develop a linear regression model for y as a function of x.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Associative Forecasting Techniques

3-94

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

117. Develop a linear trend equation for the data on bread deliveries shown below. Forecast

deliveries for period 11 through 14.

Feedback: Formulate the regression equation using least squares estimation, then apply the

result to periods 11 through 14.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-95

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

118. The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic

year based on the following historical data:

What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

A. 18,750

B. 19,500

C. 21,000

D. 22,000

E. 22,800

This year's forecast would be last year's enrollment.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-96

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

Essay Questions

1) a 3-period moving average

2) exponential smoothing with alpha equal to .20 (use a nave forecast for April for your first

forecast)

B) If the naive approach had been used to predict demand for April through June, what would

MAD have been for those months?

Feedback: The nave approach leads to absolute forecast errors of 2 units in each period.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-97

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

120. A manager wants to choose one of two forecasting alternatives. Each alternative was

tested using historical data. The resulting forecast errors for the two are shown in the table.

Analyze the data and recommend a course of action to the manager.

Feedback: Although Alternative #1 has the smaller MSE, it appears to be cycling and steady;

Alternative #2 errors after the first three periods are small or zero. For the last six periods,

Alternative #2 was much better, suggesting that approach would be better.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

121. A manager uses this equation to predict demand: Yt = 20 + 4t. Over the past 8 periods,

demand has been as follows. Are the results acceptable? Explain.

Feedback: s = 2.10; 2s control limits are 4.20. Although all values are within control limits,

the errors may be exhibiting cyclical patterns, which would suggest nonrandomness.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-07 Compare two ways of evaluating and controlling forecasts.

Topic Area: Approaches to Forecasting

3-98

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year

based on the following historical data:

122. What is the forecast for this year using a four-year simple moving average?

A. 18,750

B. 19,500

C. 21,000

D. 22,650

E. 22,800

Average enrollment from the last four years.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-99

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

123. What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5, if the

forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

A. 18,750

B. 19,500

C. 21,000

D. 22,650

E. 22,800

Multiply last year's forecast error by the smoothing constant, then add that adjusted error to

last year's forecast to get this year's forecast.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

124. What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 18,750

B. 19,500

C. 21,000

D. 22,650

E. 22,800

Treat 5 years ago as period 0.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-100

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

125. What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .

05 and beta = 0.3, if the forecast for last year was 21,000, the forecast for two years ago was

19,000, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

A. 18,750

B. 19,500

C. 21,000

D. 22,650

E. 22,800

Smooth both the trend and the forecast to get this year's forecast.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD

decoders based on the following historical data:

126. What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

A. 163

B. 180

C. 300

D. 420

E. 510

This year's forecast is last year's demand.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-101

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

127. What is the forecast for this year using a three-year weighted moving average with

weights of .5, .3, and .2?

A. 163

B. 180

C. 300

D. 420

E. 510

Multiply the last three periods of demand by the appropriate weights, then sum the resulting

products.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

128. What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if the

forecast for two years ago was 750?

A. 163

B. 180

C. 300

D. 420

E. 510

First formulate last year's exponentially smoothed forecast, then proceed.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-102

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

129. What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 163

B. 180

C. 300

D. 420

E. 510

Treat the earliest period of demand as period 0, then formulate least squares estimates and

proceed.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

130. What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha =

0.3 and beta = 0.2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was

430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -150?

A. 162.4

B. 180.3

C. 301.4

D. 403.2

E. 510.0

Smooth both the trend and the forecast to get this year's forecast.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-103

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He

needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the

following data:

A. 45

B. 50

C. 52

D. 65

E. 78

This week's forecast is last week's demand.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

132. What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?

A. 49

B. 50

C. 52

D. 65

E. 78

Average the three most recent weeks of deamdn.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-104

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

133. What is this week's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if the forecast

for two weeks ago was 90?

A. 49

B. 50

C. 52

D. 65

E. 77

Formulate the forecast for last week, then use that to get this week's forecast.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

134. What is this week's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 49

B. 50

C. 52

D. 65

E. 78

Treat the earliest period as period 0, then formulate least squares coefficients and proceed.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-105

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

135. What is this week's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.5

and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75,

and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was -5?

A. 49.3

B. 50.6

C. 51.3

D. 65.4

E. 78.7

Smooth both the trend and the forecast to get this year's forecast.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the

following historical data:

A. 22,000

B. 20,000

C. 18,000

D. 15,000

E. 12,000

This year's forecast is last year's attendance.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting

137. What is this year's forecast using a two-year weighted moving average with weights of .7

and .3?

A. 19,400

B. 18,600

C. 19,000

D. 11,400

E. 10,600

Multiply the two most recent periods by the appropriate weights, then sum the resulting

products.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

138. What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if last year's

smoothed forecast was 15,000?

A. 20,000

B. 19,000

C. 17,500

D. 16,000

E. 15,000

Multiply last year's forecast error by the smoothing constant, then add that product to last

year's forecast to get this year's forecast.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-107

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

139. What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 20,000

B. 21,000

C. 22,000

D. 23,000

E. 24,000

Treat the earliest year as period zero in formulating least squares coefficients.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

140. The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year.

What was the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for these forecasts?

A. 100

B. 200

C. 400

D. 500

E. 800

Convert each period's forecast error into absolute value, then average.

AACSB: Analytic

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-06 Explain three measures of forecast accuracy.

Topic Area: Forecast Accuracy

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer

session classes based on the following historical data:

3-108

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

A. 2,000

B. 2,200

C. 2,800

D. 3,000

E. none of the above

This year's forecast would be last year's enrollment.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

142. What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?

A. 2,667

B. 2,600

C. 2,500

D. 2,400

E. 2,333

Average the most recent periods of enrollment.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-109

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

143. What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year's

smoothed forecast was 2600?

A. 2,600

B. 2,760

C. 2,800

D. 3,840

E. 3,000

Multiply last year's forecast error by the smoothing constant. Add the product to last year's

forecast to get this year's forecast.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

144. What is the annual rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 0

B. 200

C. 400

D. 180

E. 360

Treat the earliest period as period 0, then formulate the least squares slope.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-110

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

145. What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 3,600

B. 3,500

C. 3,400

D. 3,300

E. 3,200

Treat the earliest period as period 0, then formulate the least squares coefficients and proceed.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's)

demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:

A. 100

B. 160

C. 130

D. 140

E. 120

This month's forecast is last month's demand.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-111

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

147. What is this month's forecast using a four-month weighted moving average with weights

of .4, .3, .2, and .1?

A. 120

B. 129

C. 141

D. 135

E. 140

Multiply the four most recent periods of demand by the appropriate weights, then sum the

resulting products.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

148. What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if August's

forecast was 145?

A. 144

B. 140

C. 142

D. 148

E. 163

First calculate September's forecast, then use that to calculate this month's forecast.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-112

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

149. What is the monthly rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 320

B. 102

C. 8

D. -0.4

E. -8

Treat the earliest period as period 0, then formulate the least squares slope.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

150. What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

A. 1,250

B. 128.6

C. 102

D. 158

E. 164

Treat the earliest period as period 0, then formulate the least squares coefficients and proceed.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-113

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

151. Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result

from improving short term forecast performance?

A. increased inventory

B. reduced flexibility

C. higher-quality products

D. greater customer satisfaction

E. greater seasonality

Short term forecast performance won't necessarily improve product quality, but it does allow

firms to better satisfy their customers.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Operations Strategy

152. Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short term

forecasting?

A. bringing greater variety into the product mix

B. increasing the flexibility of the production system

C. ordering fewer weather-sensitive items

D. adding more special-purpose equipment

E. none of the above

An increasingly flexible system permits more rapid responses to changing conditions, which

allows firms to reduce their forecast time horizon.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Operations Strategy

3-114

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

153. Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?

A. contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long term forecasts

B. penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecasts

C. sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain

D. increasing lead times for critical supply chain members

E. increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chain

Sharing forecasts and/or demand data is a means of ensuring that the supply chain's overall

forecast is as accurate as it can be.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Forecasting and the Supply Chain

A. shortages or excesses of materials

B. reduced customer service

C. excess capacity

D. missed deliveries

E. all of the above

Firms often react to poor forecasts by building safety capacity into their systems.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Forecasting and the Supply Chain

3-115

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

155. Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can

bring into forecasting situations?

A. what customers are most likely to do in the future

B. what customers most want to do in the future

C. what customers' future plans are

D. whether customers are satisfied or dissatisfied with their performance in the past

E. what the salesperson's appropriate sales quota should be

Knowledge about what customers are likely to do is much more valuable than information

regarding what customers plan or want to do.

Bloom's: Understand

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-02 Outline the steps in the forecasting process.

Topic Area: Qualitative Forecasts

Essay Questions

49

Feedback: This year's forecast would be last year's demand.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Easy

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-116

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

157. What is this year's forecast using a four-year simple moving average?

(45.5)

Feedback: Average the four most recent periods of demand.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

158. What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .25, if last year's

smoothed forecast was 45?

(45.8)

Feedback: Multiply last year's forecast error by the smoothing constant. Add the resulting

product to last year's forecast to get this year's forecast.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

159. What are this and next year's forecasts using the least squares trend line for these data?

(62; 69)

Feedback: Treat the earliest period as period 0 in formulating least squares coefficients, then

proceed.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-117

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

160. What is this year's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.2 and

beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the

trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7?

(61.76)

Feedback: Smooth both the trend and the forecasts using the appropriate smoothing

coefficients.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Hard

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

161. What is the centered moving average for spring two years ago?

29

Feedback: First average the four periods beginning fall three years ago. Then average the four

periods beginning spring two years ago. Then average these two averages.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-118

Chapter 03 - Forecasting

(Spring 0.91) (Summer 0.63) (Fall 1.03) (Winter 1.43)

Feedback: Divide data points by centered moving averages where moving averages are

available. Average the resulting values across the seasons to get the seasonal relatives.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

163. What is the linear regression trend line for these data (t = 0 for spring, three years ago)?

(y=17 + 2.33t)

Feedback: Used de-seasonalized data points to formulate least squares coefficients.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

164. What is this year's seasonally adjusted forecast for each season?

(Spring 40.93) (Summer 29.81) (Fall 51.14) (Winter 74.37)

Feedback: First forecast each period's de-seasonalized value (e.g., Spring is period 12). Then

multiply the de-seasonalized forecast by the appropriate seasonal relative.

Bloom's: Apply

Difficulty: Medium

Learning Objective: 03-05 Describe averaging techniques; trend and seasonal techniques; and regression analysis; and solve typical

problems.

Topic Area: Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data

3-119

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