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Sample min 30 = normal distribution

Company
A
B
C
.
.
.
.
.
P
Q
R
S
T
U

Flag

Current

Default

Code

Financial Ratio
EBIT
EBITDA

etc

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1

1 Measure of Sampling Adequecy (MSA)


2 Purpose: populate companies' financial statement ratios to identify the probability of default for e
determined its probability of default and thus approved/declined
3 Obligor Rating: only based on financial performance
Facility Rating: accompanied by qualitative and other features, e.g. pengalaman, pendidikan, umu
4 Indikasi Default: negative equity (technical bancrupt)
5 Indonesia dirating oleh ECA (Export Credit Agency)

ility of default for each level/type -> if a company applies for credit with a certain financial quality, then it can b

an, pendidikan, umur CEO

ncial quality, then it can be

Keluar di UAS!!!!
1 Indonesia menyiapkan financial statement 6 bulan sekali (as opposed to US quarterly), so impossi
2

Jan-15
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
CCC
CC
C
Default
Jan15 Beg
Kredit Baru
Pelunasan
Jan15 End

AAA
78
1
1

Feb-15
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
CCC
CC
C
Default

AAA
75

Feb-15

AA

A
2
73
2

BBB
0
1
90

BB
0
0
2
50

B
0
0
4

CCC
0
0
1

0
0
0

45
60
20

80

77
1
-3
75

-5
75
AA

91
4
-10
85
A

52
5
-2
55
BBB

49
0

61
0

20
0

49

61

20

BB

CCC

75
85
55
49
61
20

75

75

85

55

49

61

20

to US quarterly), so impossible to rate monthly


CC

C
0
0
0

0
0
0

5
0

10
1
11
0

11

CC

4
Default

5
11

Default Dec 14 End


0
80
0
75
0
100
50
45
60
20
5
10
4
5
4
450
0

Minimum 20 -> average


AAA
AA
A
AAA
0.975
0.025
0
AA
0.013333 0.973333 0.013333
A
0.01
0.02
0.9
BBB
0
0
0
BB
0
0
0
B
0
0
0
CCC
0
0
0
CC
0
0
0
C
0
0
0
Default
0
0
0

11

Jan 15 End
75
75
85
55
49
61
20
5
11
4
4
4

AAA
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
CCC
CC
C
Default

AA
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

A
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

440
Pretend this is 2005 (backtrack)
AAA
AA
A
AAA
0.9875
0.0125
0
AA
0.006667 0.986667 0.006667
A
0.005
0.01
0.95
BBB
0
0
0
BB
0
0
0
AP:
B
0
98.75% 0
probability an0AAA company
in
Jan
stays
CCC
0
0 as AAA in0Feb (monthly
average)
CC
0
0
0
C
0
0
0
Default
0
0
0

BBB

BB

0
0
0.02
1
0
0
0
0
0
0

BBB

0
0
0.04
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

BB
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0

BBB

0
0
0.01
1
0
0
bability an AAA company
as AAA in Feb (monthly0
0
0
0

CCC
0
0
0.01
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

B
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

BB
0
0
0.02
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

CC
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

CCC
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

B
0
0
0.005
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

C
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0

CC
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

CCC

C
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0

CC
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

Default
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2

Default

Jan 15 End
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.9

Jan 15 End
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Default
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1

Dec 14 End
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0

C
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.8