Multi-billion dollar microcap opportunity hiding in a dark alley

6/14/2016

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1

 Disclosures
This slide deck contains current opinions of Bigger Capital as of May 19 only and may
contain certain forward-looking information. Such information involves known and
unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual investment
results, performance or achievements to be materially different from those implied by
statements herein, and therefore these statements should not be read as guarantees
of future performance or results. All forward-looking statements are based on our
current beliefs as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to
it as well as other factors. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these
forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this slide deck. Actual
events may differ materially from current expectations. Bigger Capital disclaims any
intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as
a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Bigger Capital and related entities own more than 10% of the company discussed in
this presentation. This micro cap stock is not suitable for the majority of investors. The
likely outcome of an investment is a loss of principal. Take our opinions with a grain of
salt. If you find yourself relying on our views to make an investment decision it means
you definitely did not do your homework about this situation. Please do not rely on
our views, instead use the information as a jumping off point to begin your own
independent due diligence.

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2

 Bigger Capital





Invest in situations that have more than 10 times return potential.
Hard to replicate and misunderstood business model.
Management team that can lead the effort to success.
Very cheap.
Little to no debt.
We make very few bets.

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3

 Results Highlight








Innovative Fibers (1995). Sold to Alcatel in 2000. 600x.
Amazon.com (2001). Still holding. Up to 100x on some purchases.
Priceline (2002). Sold too early. 4x.
McDonald’s (2003). 4x.
Netflix (2005). Sold too early. 5x.
Crocs (2009). 11x.
Plug Power (2013). 9x.
American Apparel (2014). 2x.
Phorm (2014). Insolvent (2016). OOPS! We do make many mistakes. Take our
opinions with a grain of salt.

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4

 Making a high margin of safety, multi bagger potential, and simple to understand
bet on a company that has a better than a “fair” chance of finding a cure for
Alzheimer’s disease.

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5

 Multi-billion dollar opportunity hiding in a dark alley.
 This tiny microcap is a next to free call option that could return 2x, 5x, 10x, 50x+.
 According to the Alzheimer Association, the cost to care for Alzheimer’s patients
and other dementias are projected to increase from $183 billion in 2011 to $1.1
trillion in 2050 as the baby boomers population ages. Alzheimer’s will affect
everyone and all of us to varying degree - including yourself.
 Let’s do something about extinguishing the scourge of the twenty first century.

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6

SO WHAT IS THE BIG IDEA?

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7

Our mission is to discover and develop precision medicine solutions for early detection
and effective treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, in particular Alzheimer’s
disease (AD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

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8

PMN.TO
Price Per Share (PMN.TO, CDN)

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
10/2007

10/2008

10/2009

10/2010

10/2011

10/2012

10/2013

10/2014

 2007 to 2014 ProMIS, led by Chief Scientist Dr. Neil Cashman,
developed a strong prion intellectual property and super
computing platform to model how proteins misfold. It invested
more than $30 million in its platform and pursuing multiple
objectives such as finding a cure for ALS and Ovarian Cancer,
among others.
 The management team under the leadership of a controversial
BOD, spent all the money they had without focus chasing too
many rabbits in too manySee
directions.
end notes for more details.

10/2015

9

PMN.TO

Price Per Share (PMN.TO, CDN)

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
10/2007

10/2008

10/2009

10/2010

10/2011

10/2012

10/2013

10/2014

10/2015

 In early 2015, the company ran out of cash setting the stage for a
company reset on a stronger foundation with renewed focus.
 In June 2015, the Board is reconstituted, Gene Williams becomes
its Executive Chairman, and Elliot Goldstein becomes Promis’ CEO.
 In the summer 2015, the company raises $2 million followed by a
$1 million (CDN) round this spring.

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10

Why did management join a roadkill?

Elliot and I have worked together since the 1980's, and realize we make a very effective team. He
invested in one of my successful startups (Adheris), and I was on his Board at British Biotech, among
other things.
A few years ago we decided to make that partnership our sole focus. Drug development is a team
enterprise, and we make a good team.
When we created and ran DART, we realized that it would be a great deal easier administratively if Elliot
and I had a legal entity through which we could offer management services. That clarified issues like
reporting, accounting, ensuring that the client did not have to pay benefits, etc.
We quickly found ProMIS, and supported it for free for nearly a year, until we clarified the tremendous
opportunity and set on the path you know about.
Eugene Williams

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11

Show Your Work

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12

 Making a high margin of safety, multi bagger potential, and simple to understand bet on a
company that has more than a “fair” chance of finding a cure for Alzheimer’s.

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13

 High margin of safety. Really? IP of the company is worth more than its enterprise
value.
 Lower strategic risk. Really? This company’s computing algorithm provides a
rational framework for explaining why and how big pharma multi billion
investment research failed in moving an effective Alzheimer’s disease solution
across the finish line, and where the solution resides. This opportunity is a frugal
information arbitrage in that it uses its computing models and the results of tens
of billions of dollars of research to its advantage to move a solution across the
finish line resulting in a potential large payoff while avoiding a billion dollar plus
investment.

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14

 Intellectual Property (IP)



Promis Algorithm
Collective Coordinates
Genus Patent on SOD-1 Protein (ALS)
Patents filed on 4 Amyloid Beta disease specific epitopes. 2 more filings are in the
pipeline. Promis believes a total of 6 epitopes will cover most of the Amyloid
territory.
 Multiple Monoclonal Antibodies (MABs) that binds tightly to the epitope targets
and to forms of misfolded Ab, with no measurable off-target binding.

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15

 Low enterprise value: $13 million USD (June 5)
 High margin of safety: The company should get a multiple of its market cap of $13
million if it decided to put itself for sale. Let’s assume the company sells the Promis
algorithm, Collective Coordinates, SOD1 IP for $2.5 million each and the
Alzheimer’s IP for $5 million. This is a reasonable value for each component when
you consider most start-ups get funded at more than a $2.5 million pre-money
valuation for basically an experimental idea. The company has NOLs of $26 million
USD of which $12.4 million can be used to offset taxable income indefinitely. I
conservatively assign a fair value of $7 million USD on these. Value = $19.5 million
or 1.5x
 Worst case: We sell the assets for $6.5 million in a distressed sale and we lose 50%
of investment.
 Burn rate: $2 million a years. Burn rate if the company pivots to a distressed sale:
$0.5 million a years.

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16

 Tax Loss Carry-forwards

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17

 Making a low risk, multi bagger potential, and simple to understand bet on a
company that has more than a “fair” chance of finding a cure for Alzheimer’s.

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18

 Simple to Understand: Biotech is complicated. Alzheimer’s disease science is also
extremely complicated. However, one doesn’t need to understand quantum
physics to have a general idea about atoms. The same is true with Alzheimer’s. All
that is needed is a basic understanding of protein behavior to understand the
detective work that leads us to believe that finding a cure for Alzheimer’s disease
consists of completing the job that large pharma started by attacking the root
cause of the disease – Amyloid Beta and Tau proteins.
 The largest companies in industry, and the smartest scientists in academics, didn’t
spend two decades pursuing a dead end – they were - half right -. Promis uses the
scientific clues from these experiments in conjunction with its algorithms to
develop effective solutions to Alzheimer’s disease to the market.

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 General consensus that Alzheimer’s is caused by proteins that
misfold and then propagate their shapes and toxicity to other
proteins, initiating a chain reaction like a virus. These misfolding
proteins are named prions and they are toxic to the brain.
 At The American Neurological Association held in September
2015 there was a strong consensus that prions drive
neurodegenerative diseases. This consensus emerged over the
last two years.
 Dr. Cashman speaker at the President’s Symposium is
recognized as a leader in the field. Dr. Cashman’s work on
prions dates way back to the mad cow diseases emergence in
the 1990s.
 Promis Neurosciences with a decade long prion expertise has
built computing algorithms to model how proteins misfold into
their toxic shapes.
 It is our understanding that Promis is the only company that has
a rational model for the identification of prion processes
involved in AD. Most companies approaches are plaque centric
and PET scan centric for diagnostic.

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21

 Making a high margin of safety, multi bagger potential, and
simple to understand bet on a company that has more than a
“fair” chance of finding a cure for Alzheimer’s.

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22

 There are no reasons to create solutions that bind to the inert
plaque or the monomer. Any solution must neutralize the prion,
only the prion.
 Big pharma’s products bind the monomer and/or the plaques in
all cases.
 Promis’s multiple monoclonal antibodies targeting six AmyloidBeta prion epitopes (patents filed) showing no off target
binding.

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24

 Promis versus its competition.

The pharma industry has been attempting to target these errant proteins in hopes of stopping the disease
progression or even reversing it. Big pharmaceutical companies like Roche, Pfizer, Eli Lilly and Johnson and Johnson
did their best to come up with treatments based on an immunotherapy approach. That is, they developed antibodies
or antibody-like molecules that, once administered, would help to destroy and clear these errant proteins. Until late
last year, all clinical trials failed. However, at the end of last year, Biogen finally showed that such a therapeutic
approach can produce a sizable benefit to AD patients.
A gold rush is now underway to develop the most effective antibodies that would target these errant proteins,
particularly beta amyloid. This is where ProMIS Neurosciences with its proprietary ProMIS technology has a big
opportunity. ProMIS is a statistical thermodynamic algorithm that predicts how proteins degenerate into their
diseased (misfolded) forms and thereby provides a model of all the potential target regions of the protein (i.e.
epitopes) against which an antibody can be designed and produced. This approach would allow to develop a specific
therapeutic antibody and its related companion diagnostic, i.e. a precision medicine solution.
The ProMIS technology works and has been validated previously on many cancer types and neurodegenerative
diseases such as Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Of course, ProMIS is not the only method of identifying epitopes, and the
race to find such AD epitopes is very competitive and includes many pharma companies with formidable resources at
their disposal. ProMIS does however appear to have the advantage of being a theoretical and rational approach
to epitope identification while almost all other approaches are more trial-and-error/hit-or-miss.

Dr. Greg Kenaussis
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25

 Confirmation

In article titled “Alzheimer's researchers find clues to toxic forms of amyloid beta” the
author states:
 “The actual structure of these soluble oligomers remains unknown”
 "The scattering experiment provided an indication of structure, and there is a
chance we can use this information to gain some structural insights," Raskatov
said. "We're pretty excited about that, because if we can understand the structure
of the neurotoxic oligomers, that could help efforts to design molecules to disrupt
them.“
The bottom line is that Promis understands the structure of the neurotoxic oligomers,
and it has identified and created monoclonal antibodies that disrupt them.

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26

 Making a high margin of safety, multi bagger potential, and
simple to understand bet on a company that has more than a
“fair” chance of finding a cure for Alzheimer’s.

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27

 Large Potential Payoff: Biogen trial results in Dec. 2014 with
Aducanumab led to $20BB market value increase.
 $20BB is 2000 times our idea’s enterprise value.
 Aducanumab is the first Alzheimer’s drug to show some efficacy
but it shows severe side effects at higher dose. We suspect that
binding to the plaque creates this issue. The phase 3 trials will
select patients suffering from early symptoms of Alzheimer’s.
These patients should have less plaque which should help the
results theoretically. This highlights the shortcoming of
Aducanumab.
 Our due diligence indicates that several current and former
Biogen people have confirmed that there were sub-populations of
responders in Aducanumab trials pointing to the validity of Promis’
assertion that they exist 6 different strains of AD associated with
Amyloid Beta.

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 Strategy for realizing the value.

 Seeking Partners for ALS SOD1 and TDP43. Promis has limited
resources and it must focus on its massive AD opportunity.
 Seeking investors for Alzheimer’s Amyloid Beta and Tau to bring
the Promis solutions across the finish line to realize its multibillion payoff.

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30

 How do we value this opportunity and the capital it requires?
 The somber reality is that is extremely hard to do because it is
path dependent.
 It is next to impossible to assess the value of this company, but
everyone can assess probabilities to different outcomes
according to the clues we have uncovered about Promis
Neurosciences.

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31

 Options theory basics.

 The higher the potential upside, the more valuable the call options
becomes.
 The time decay of a stock as an options is its burn rate minus the economic
value accreted.
 The longer the maturity of the options the more valuable it becomes.
 The more prone to information entropy (unexpected news) the more
valuable the options.

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32

 As an options Promis would cost $13 million to acquire.
 Let’s assume there is a buyer for that options at $6.5 million
(distressed buyer).
 The time decay of this options is $2 million per annum (burn
rate for the next year) but we are comfortable management is
creating that much value per year. The time decay is small at
the moment.
 The maturity of the options depends on management’s ability
to find the funds to finance the big payoff pursuit. We believe
management will be able to raise the funds to conclude the In
vitro tests.
 We expect this stock to gap frequently considering the
potential news flow and the fact that this company is off the
radar screen (information entropy).
 The range of potential outcome is massive by judging the
reaction of the public by pushing the value of Biogen up $20
Billion on the Aducanumab results.
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33

 Your assessment a
% probability of a distressed sale at $2.5
million.
 A
% probability of an orderly sale at $13 million.
 A
% probability of an exit at $50 million.
 A
% of hitting the jackpot ($1 billion + after investment in the
drugs).
 Sum this all up. What do you get? 1x, 2x, 10x, 50x?
 With its enterprise value of $13 million and the quality of its IP
portfolio, I handicap this opportunity at a potential 25x to 50x
return. A very cheap options indeed.

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34

 Catalysts

 Management/Directors/Chief Scientist bought up to 49% of
April 2016 equity raise.
 Potential ALS Partnership. Q3 or Q4.
 In Vitro (Alzheimer’s) test results will be announced in
September or October.

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35

 Recap

 Promis Neurosciences is a high margin of safety, multi bagger
potential, and simple to understand bet on a company that has
way more than a “fair” chance of finding a cure for Alzheimer’s.
 If the investment doesn’t work out and we lose 50% or more of
our investment, we contributed to a great experiment and
cause that will affect us personally at some points in our lives.
 No matter what happens, Promis’ results will help other
experiments to the same extent big pharma’s results are
helping Promis Neurosciences at the moment.

Thank You!
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36

ENDNOTES

Slide 1 Inspiration for the framework used in this presentation comes from Chamath
Palihapitiya’s Amazon.com presentation.
Slide 2 Slide 7 http://www.alz.org/downloads/Facts_Figures_2011.pdf.
Slide 15 News Release.
Slide 16 NOLs are used in the context of a valuation framework for illustration purpose
but they are rarely the source of biotech business focus.
Slide 17 Slide taken from 2015 annual report.
Slide 20, 21, 24 Source: Promis Neurosciences Presentation.
Slide 25 Source: Dr. Greg Kenaussis.
Slide 30 Source: Promis Neurosciences Presentation.
Slide 35 Source: Promis Neurosciences.

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37

Management Team
Eugene Williams, Executive Chairman
Eugene Williams is a former SVP at Genzyme, with senior roles integrating commercialization, drug development,
and deal making. He is also an entrepreneur, as the founder and director of Adheris, which became the largest
company in the patient adherence area. He was previously a strategy consultant at Bain and Corporate Decisions Inc.
(a Bain Spin off, now part of Oliver Wyman), where he was co-Head of Healthcare and spent extensive time on
speeding and improving the drug development process and on commercialization strategies. Mr. Williams was most
recently the CEO of Dart Therapeutics, an Orphan Disease drug development company. Mr. Williams holds a B.A.
from Harvard University and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.
Dr. Elliot Goldstein, President and CEO
Elliot Goldstein brings a unique track record in the clinical, regulatory and commercial development of new
pharmaceuticals. Dr. Goldstein began his career with Sandoz Pharmaceuticals (now Novartis), a fourteen-year period
on drug development in France, Basel, Switzerland Global Headquarters, including as Head of Clinical R&D in the
United States. He subsequently held positions as SVP of Strategic Product Development at SmithKline Beecham (now
GSK), CEO of British Biotech (Oxford, UK), Chief Operating Officer and Chief Medical Officer of Maxygen, and
President and CMO of a startup biotech devoted to development of biosimilar monoclonal antibodies. Dr. Goldstein
holds an M.D. from the University Aix-Marseille II, Marseille, France, and a B.Sc. from McGill University, Montreal.

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38

Scientific Team
Dr. Neil Cashman, Chief Scientific Officer and Co-founder
Dr. Cashman is a physician and scientist focused on neurodegenerative diseases. His first academic posting was at
Montreal Neurological Institute and Hospital of McGill University. From 1998 to 2005, he was the Diener Professor of
Neurodegenerative Diseases at the University of Toronto. In 2005, Professor Cashman moved to the University of
British Columbia, where he holds the Canada Research Chair in Neurodegeneration and Protein Misfolding Diseases,
and serves as the Director of the UBC ALS Centre. He has procured over $50 million in research grant funding from
the CIHR, CRC, NCE, NIH, and various corporations for his work involving protein misfolding and prion technologies.
He was awarded the Jonas Salk Prize for biomedical research in 2000, and was elected a Fellow of the Canadian
Academy of Health Sciences in 2008. He is recognized worldwide as one of the leading research scientists pioneering
the emerging fields of prion biology and protein misfolding diseases, in particular Alzheimer’s disease and
amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

Steven Plotkin, Ph.D, Chief Physics Officer
Prof. Steven Plotkin is a theoretical and computational biophysicist whose research focuses on protein folding and
misfolding in neurodegenerative disease, protein evolution and cellular differentiation, and the molecular
mechanisms of cancer. He has been a professor at UBC in the Department of Physics and Astronomy since 2001,
where he was appointed as the Canada Research Chair in Theoretical Molecular Biophysics. He was an Alfred P. Sloan
Research Fellow in 2005-2006, a Killam Faculty Research Fellow in 2010, and is now an associate member of the
Genome Sciences and Technology Program, the Bioinformatics Program, and the Institute for Applied Mathematics at
the University of British Columbia. Several of his publications have received the Faculty of 1000 designation, placing
them in the top 2% of published articles in biology and medicine.
Plotkin is recognized internationally for his
fundamental contributions to the energy landscape theory of protein folding, and presents his research findings in
protein misfolding and neurodegeneration, and protein geometry and disorder as an invited speaker at several annual
conferences and symposia. His research is currently supported by grants from CIHR, NSERC, APRI, ALS-Canada, and
Compute Canada.
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39

Scientific Advisory Board (SAB)
Todd E. Golde, MD, PhD., Director of the Center for Translational Research in Neurodegenerative Disease at the University of
Florida where he directs a robust program of scientific discovery aimed at translating basic discoveries in neurodegenerative
disease into diagnostics and treatments for patients. Dr. Golde is co-chair of the SAB.
Neil R. Cashman, MD, Chief Science Officer at ProMIS Neurosciences and Professor of Medicine at the University of British
Columbia, where he holds the Canada Research Chair in Neurodegeneration and Protein Misfolding Diseases, and serves as
the Director of the UBC ALS Centre. Dr. Cashman is recognized as a pioneer in the field of prions and their role in
development of neurodegenerative diseases, in particular ALS and AD. Neil Cashman is co-chair of the SAB.
Lary C. Walker, PhD, Associate Professor of Neurology and Research Professor at Emory University Yerkes National Primate
Research Center. Lary Walker’s research has been directed toward understanding the mechanisms by which the Alzheimerassociated proteins Amyloid beta and tau form pathogenic assemblies in vivo and how these agents spread in the brain.

Business Advisory Board
Mara G. Aspinall, MBA, is a diagnostic industry pioneer. She is Executive Chairman of GenePeeks, a company leading a
paradigm shift at the intersection of personalized medicine and computational genomics with genetic testing. Mara is the
former President and CEO of Ventana Medical Systems, a division of Roche Group, a worldwide leader in the development
and commercialization of tissue-based cancer diagnostics.
Nigel Burns, PhD, has over 20 years’ experience in the biotech sector, in particular in the field of monoclonal antibodies for
the treatment of chronic disease. Nigel has held a series of industry leadership roles including Senior Vice President of
Cambridge Antibody Technology, and most recently, CEO and Founder of SweetSpot Therapeutics Ltd. Nigel was
entrepreneur-in-residence for Imperial Innovations and has served on multiple national and international scientific and
industry advisory boards and committees.
Michael Higgins, MBA, is currently an entrepreneur-in-residence at Polaris Partners. Previously at Genzyme, Mr. Higgins
held a variety of leadership roles, including Vice President of Corporate Finance and Vice President of Business
See business
end notesunits,
for more
details.
Development, and was involved with multiple
including
Cell Therapy, Gene Therapy and Orphan Diseases.40