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Bits & pieces

17 June 2016

Off-piste. Todays edition takes a brief walk off the beaten path. Following Pakistans MSCI
upgrade this week Ive taken a look at whats inside Asias four key frontier markets.
Bloomberg numbers indicate there are around 26,500 listed companies in developed and
emerging Asia with approximately 8% of them housed within these frontier markets. They
are also home to almost 500m people (one-third under 15 years of age) and have a
combined GDP of US$700bn. These frontier markets hold much of the same growth and
financial market development potential that successful Asian emerging economies
displayed 20-30 years ago. It might be a long-wait but it should prove worthwhile.

MSCI will reclassify the MSCI Pakistan Index from Frontier Markets to Emerging Markets.
Implementation of this reclassification will happen in one step and coincide with the MSCI May 2017
Semi-Annual Index Review (SAIR). Quantitative and Index analyst Rohit Sharma
Roughly twenty years ago, emerging markets were undergoing similar developments that frontier
markets are undergoing today. Frontier markets are generally under-owned and less researched than
their emerging markets peers .. (they) also offer greater exposure to domestic demand and some of the
fastest growing economies with attractive demographics. Lazard Asset Managements Rahwa Senay. On
the subject of uncovered stocks in Asia I calculated via Bloomberg there are >800 stocks in (including AShares) with a total mkt cap >US$2.3 trillion that are currently covered by 3 or fewer analysts.
Vietnams share of US imports is now the highest in Asean; its share of Chinese imports will soon exceed
Thailands. Vietnams challenge to become Asias next major manufacturing hub contrasts with Indonesia
and the Philippines whose shares of US and China imports have hardly budged. Economist Tony Nafte.

Off-piste CLSA recommendations and earnings forecasts. Which stocks do CLSA analysts
rate a buy when the consensus call is to sell them (and vice versa)? And where do CLSA
analyst earnings forecasts deviate significantly from the street?

Medytoxs interests are not aligned with its overseas distributors. Potential delays in the launch of its
liquid botox product Innotox, beyond Korea and Japan and the entry of its dermal fillers into China is
likely to disappoint investors. We expect these headwinds to weigh on the companys topline and profit
stream and initiate with a SELL. Analyst Dong Min Kim has the only Sell Rec on the street

A US$88bn under-analysed sector. Ever heard of Saahil UNIVeRsE Arora? Well apparently
he earned US$2m in prize-money in 2015 as a professional gamer (about what current
world #12 mens tennis player Jo Wilfried Tsonga earned). Gaming in and of itself is a
US$88bn market and within that esport revenues are climbing. A new CLSA Blue Book
focuses on what is happening in gaming-mad Japan where Naver (another stock with CLSA
EPS forecasts way ahead of consensus) off-shoot Line is involved in the battle.

It seems to me that the $88bn global gaming market is relatively under-analysed for its size and growth
(projected midterm revenue cagr of 15%), and that would be even more true for the faster expanding
mobile segment (30% cagr), where Japan arguably leads the way. This is now an $8bn domestic market,
and a topic addressed at our 2016 Tokyo Forum by independent gaming authority Dr Serkan Toto. He has
now summarised his thoughts in a Blue Book. The problem for investors is that mobile gaming is a very
crowded & competitive space with over 700 new titles launched daily! .. Dr Toto is bullish about
Nintendo and confident they will eventually succeed in mobile gaming, though the better way to play that
is via $3.3bn jv partner 2432 DeNA, which is more geared to future hit games and also offers a similarly
super-strong balance sheet. Analyst Jay Defibaughs preferred name is a slightly smaller 3668 COLOPL,
which has more than doubled its sales in the past 3 years and nearly doubled profits. On Jays forecasts
youre now paying 12x PER for strong double digit earnings growth, a 9% FCF yield and a strongly net
cash b/s. With ADT of $26m, its far from illiquid. Head of Japan Sales (LDN) John Charlton-Jones
Plus

The Korean and Taiwanese road to MSCI emerging market status


Off-piste Bloomberg screens searching for little covered low PER/PB & high yielders
Not off-piste stocks with >10 analysts covering but either zero Buys or zero Sells
Financial crazies you want what for collateral? + 120% mortgage
A country surrounded by frontier markets Thai strategy
Last Word: Money

Damian Kestel

Australian mobile: (+61) 401 362629

damian.kestel@clsa.com

OFFPISII:

Frontier Market Stocks with mkt cap >US$1 bn


4~
15

Bangladesh
Pakistan

S~i Lanka
Vretnam
Rest of World

FCi>liY 1> E41'TI 0 N rlf~F.$ A WAt.JI. oFF 711


B:EArEN 71!A(.Ji. Fot.l.OWIN6 ~~I'I~TAN'.S m.u:..r CI,.6MJ)E rillS WEE~

2 /.r'VIE rAJ<EN A t.oO.I< AT /'11/I~T'.t' !U~IAE AfiA'.J I<EY F.J!()/V"17EI! /IJA~k71'.


10
377
. {)l.f.JPIT 9CIA16 1J WAAFE.tl IN S-12/E e'/ CHINA 1S A- S!/A~I /YJKT
408
PAI<!S1'"1W tl/FAT C/II#A
rilE PUNCH so .J'oi'YIE 1"HIIV65" .4~E 6ollll6
1,529
A/6/1-r IN FI!O/IITI El<! 11~111.

ro

total

China A-Shares

p~ Cl-/INA THE WAtr CONrJ/111.1/!FS ,qJ. TIIOtibl/ rf/8


.fi/Ol/10 come: A-' No fVRI"~tsE 611/EIV rifE

From:
Sent:

Rohit Sharma, CLSA


Wednesday, June 15, 2016 5:40AM

CL SA

S!>J:I/1/'ICE OF /(O~EA Al'l!) rAIVVAN.

Index & Corporate Actions Analysis

Brief history of the MSCI Korea and Taiwan Index


At the time the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was launched on 1 January 1988, MSCI Korea and MSCI Taiwan Indexes
were not constituents of the Index. Accordingly, we think it could take 5 t~years for the China to. be fully included
into the MSCIIndex. Note that it took Korea 6 years to get fully included into the MSCI index after a partial inclusion of
20% in 1992. Similarly, Taiwan took 9 years to be fully included into the MSCI index after a partial SO% inclusion in 1996.
MSCI Korea Index was included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gradually in three phases:
~----....
7 January 1992, MSCI Korea Index at 20% of its weight,
~ V&AIZSJ
3 September 1996, MSCI Korea Index increased its weight from 20% to SO%,
1 September 1998, the MSCI Korea Index was included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index at its full weight.
For MSCI Taiwan Index, it was included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gradually in five phases:
3 September 1996, MSCI Taiwan Index at 50% of its weight,
1 June 2000, MSCI Taiwan Index increased its weight from 50% to 6S%,
yEA~
1 December 2000, MSCI Taiwan Index increased its weight from 65% to 80%,
~
1 December 2004, the LIF of MSCI Taiwan Index increased from 0.55 to 0.7S,
1 June~, the LIF of MSCI Taiwan Index increased from 0.75 to 1.

(j_

Current
(Mil USD)
sia/Pacific
Japan
China
Hong Kong
India
Australia
South Korea
Taiwan
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
Philippines
Pakistan
New Zealand
Vietnam
Sri Lanka

4931187
5979954
3812547
1493709
1080274
1242955
908961
479335
384345
388628
378389
269148
72616 .
76760
68028
18151 ..

CI{!UA MU.T Uf,b PER. 0J.00Mfi'E"6

The market capitalization is calculated from all


shares outstanding. WCAP data does not include
ETFs and ADRs as they do not directly represent
companies. It includes only actively traded,
primary securities on the country's exchanges

lOM

S:r/il. W o~J<. : ( fYJKr' REFo!!IYI.C) Fa,e.


!JEfplr /r~ iViA~k1" .......... .

C.#i111P. io. t>o


CAP 8E"I"'6

821<

SM

'THA'T" cJ.F PAI<t~rA/11

4M

2M
,,.Mid Price
High on 06/09/15
Average
Low on 07/19/05

5.732M
9.691M
2.473M
0.307M
0

2003

2004

2005

I 2006

2007

L 2008

2010

2011

~-----------------------------------..

Off-piste Asian markets


Frontier markets are a group of developing countries that exhibit
characteristics similar to emerging markets but are in earlier stages of
macroeconomic and capital markets development. These markets are
excluded from the major emerging markets and global equity indices.
I-IE~'.5 WJ./-Ar A-.!IA ~ 1-<EY FteaNriEIZ MAR~rS

L OPR /.ll<c ( IIEt=oRE PA/(I.frA#/S I/P6AAJ:))

Listed Stocks (per Bloomberg)Numberof


stocks

Asia - Developed
Asia - Emerging

Asian Frontier Markets Pert and Valuations ( osE~6)

13,275
13,288
26,563

Bangladesh
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Vietnam

353
540
288
975
2,156

Bangladesh
Mongolia
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Vietnam

@)

percent of total

1yr USD 5yr USD


pert (o/o) pert(%)
(6.9)
(12.8)
(64.0)
(28.3)
149.9
4.1
(29.7)
(14.6)
3.6
33.4

PER
20.3
372.0
10.3
13.5
13.7

PB
4.0
1.4
1.7
1.5
1.8

Yield
2.1
5.6
2.7
3.7

LAZARD

Frontier Markets Potential


($B)

/YJIA/IS~IIt.. h!Kr CAI-

ra

bl>~

=A

F~,.;ru~E

J.or

4,000

oF

PorENfiAJ-

------------------------------------------~--~ Market Cap ILHSJ

3,000

Fi>R F~o/11/l~

/YIA/l.J<ET.S /t.S FI#ANCIA'!YI4R.I<t:..rl I>EI/E J. o~

(___..::p

%,000

1.1)00

-4
0

0Frontier M;ett~s

Growth in Frontier Markets Is Expected to Continue at a


Relatively Fast Pace
Real GDP CAGR, 2007-2020

(o/o)

FlfS"TE~

6Roi/II'TH -rJ.JA/11

rifE RBTO~
171- Wot1J...b

4-

6/JP

2007..%014
MSCI World
m'! MSCl FM
MSCI EM

FM Extended

f.Q'f 5i...ZOZO
Source: IMF, MSC I, World Bank, Haver Analytics

------------~~~~~~--~~~~----,~~~~~~~~~~~~----------

Frontier Markets Are Less Correlated to Other Equity Markets


Correlation of Frontier Markets and Other Equity Universes
MSCI
EMSC
MSCIEMSC

1.00

MSCIEM

0.96

MSCIFM

(o.6o

MSCI
EM

MSCI
FM

MSCI FM
ex-GCC

MSCI
World

WHtC/1

~1-!ovt.b

CaM IN

fiANIJY -tF rH ~~r

OF rilE JVo~~ 6oE~

1.00
0.5!)

MSCI FM ex-GCC

0.68

0.66

MSCIWorld

0.84

0.87

For the period May 2002 to June 20 15

p~,.SIIAPEIJ.

1.00

!Jvr A woA) ol'l

1.00
0

CQ~ /!EI..A r/aN

0.65

1.00

0J L.4ZJ:l1Zb A-.J~ET M/116 T

The standard deviation and correlation statistics must be interpreted


with care. Low liquidity in frontier stocks means that there is less
frequent trading (i.e., slower price discovery), which can lead to
unchanged pricing for extended periods. This issue can bias risk and
correlation statistics downward.Q despite this bias, an economic
iJ.IIN~ oF mER61N6 t-t..tiA
rationale supports the diversification benefits. Frontier markets remain
IN 1'196- WII-E,eE WA.S ZNiu>,
less integrated to global markets. Therefore, the low level of integrarHIIIJ../Wb, rilE PHI~-, C#IAIA
.,._ 1/tii>IA @wii-ERE 111-EYA.e!f ro.J>If Y tion limits capital flows, liquidity, and correlation.
Roughly twenty years ago, emerging markets were undergoing similar
developments that frontier markets are undergoing today. Frontier
markets are generally under-owned and less researched than their - emerging markets peers. However, many companies in frontier economies are well positioned to benefit from the next wave of economic
development and these countries continue to deepen their capital markets. Frontier markets also offer greater exposure to domestic demand
and some of the fastest growing economies with attractive demograph-

'/7>

I.!

If. I<EY

F.RONtJE.l!

JMl<t""
A!I~ HIWE A POPv~~7loiJ

~-

or: 11-8..? tnJJ..J.Io/11

Boldly Going: the Exotic 'Frontier' Markets That Intrepid Investors Are Tipping for Take-off
2016-04-18 07:30:35.194 GMT
By Ed Monk, Investment editor

IHIAII.t.l/116 Lotv(p - 182,.,_

For investors still looking to get in on the ground floor of the next market to take off, even more exotic destinations are
required and "frontier" markets provide them.
Be warned, you may be more used to hearing their names in connection with Foreign Office travel warnings than in
stockbrokers' notes. Frontier markets are as varied and far-flung as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Jamaica, Burma, Nigeria, Iran and
Mongolia.
None the less, professional investors are becoming excited. Brian Dennehy, managing director of researcher
FundExpert.co.uk, said:
P.EJ..A17VEt.'l ~m/U..J.. 111FJ.o~> ;;- ~16 /I'YII'Ac..r
"l think it can be said that once institutions bite on frontier markets, even with small bites, it could drive these markets a
lot higher quite quickly.
ll>E ;>

fYJoRE

t/~~

"The appeal is the huge potential upside when much of the developed markets are struggling to make investors money.
These are countries both large and small which are underdeveloped but have key advantages that can underpin superior
economic growth in the years and decades to come."
Depending on which definition you use, there are 23-27 frontier markets around the worl~, and firms such as FTSE and
MSCI have developed indices for them. Within these indices are around 5,700 individual stocks, but size and liquiditythe ease with which shares can be traded- mean the range of investable companies comes down to around 500.

------~-----------------------------------,

Asian Frontier Market Stocks with Mkt Caps >US$1 bn


Ticker
Bangladesh (4 securities)
SQUARE BD Equity
LAFCEM BD Equity
GRAM BD Equity
BATBC BD Equity
Pakistan (15 securities)
NBP PA Equity
OGDC PA Equity
UBL PA Equity
HBL PA Equity
KEL PA Equity
PPL PA Equity
MCB PA Equity
ENGRO PA Equity
LUCK PA Equity
FFC PA Equity
HUBC PA Equity
EFOODS PA Equity
FML PA Equity
PAKT PA Equity
NESTLE PA Equity
Sri Lanka (2 securities)
JKH SL Equity
CTC SL Equity
Vietnam (10 securities)
MBB VN Equity
CTG VN Equity
BID VN Equity
HPG VN Equity
GAS VN Equity
VCB VN Equity
BVH VN Equity
MSN VN Equity
VIC VN Equity
VNM VN Equity
Aggregate/Average

Market Cap
(USDm)

EPS -1yr
growth

Dvd Est
Yid

Cntry

Name

lndGroup

Bangladesh
Bangladesh
Bangladesh
Bangladesh

SQUARE PHARMACEUTICALS LTO


LAFARGE SURMA CEMENT LTO
GRAMEENPHONE LTO
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO BAN

Pharmaceuticals
Building Materials
Telecommunications
Agriculture

2,076
1,106
4,398
2,064

27.2
31.7
17.4
27.6

21.1
11.0
34.7
-6.5

5.2
6.7
11.0
11.1

0.0
1.1
0.0
3.0

-9.6
-1.3
91.4
-16.1

Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan

NATIONAL BANK OF PAKISTAN


OIL & GAS DEVELOPMENT CO LTO
UNITED BANK LTD
HABIB BANK LTD
K-ELECTRIC LTD
PAKISTAN PETROLEUM LTD
MCBBANKLTD
ENGRO CORPORATION LTD
LUCKY CEMENT
FAUJI FERTILIZER COMPANY LTO
HUB POWER COMPANY
ENGRO FOODS LTO
FEROZE 1888 MILLS LTD
PAKISTAN TOBACCO CO LTD
NESTLE PAKISTAN LTD

Banks
Oil&Gas
Banks
Banks
Electric
Oil& Gas
Banks
Chemicals
Building Materials
Chemicals
Electric
Food
Textiles
Agriculture
Food

1,065
5,837
1,929
2,449
2,110
3,089
2,275
1,678
1,891
1,404
1,261
1,162
1,535
2,420
3,261

5.5
9.6
7.7
7.4
6.4
15.4
10.2
12.5
13.5
9.7
11.8
38.7
43.8
32.5
39.9

95.7
-53.9
-0.5
-9.2
27.3
-51.5
-22.1
1.6
-4.2
-83.2
2.7
4.3
90.9
35.1
-6.3

0.6
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.6
2.4
2.8
3.2
4.1
7.8
13.8
22.4
26.9

10.9
4.2
8.4
8.0
0.8
3.6
7.4
5.1
1.8
8.5
7.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
2.7

30.5
-2.7
48.9
95.2
37.4
-14.0
67.1
48.5
-16.0
86.6
125.5
35.7
-2.8
-34.2
112.8

Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka

JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC


CEYLON TOBACCO CO PLC

Commercial Services
Agriculture

1,308
1,444

13.7
19.6

-5.2
-7.7

1.2
72.4

2.3
4.8

-33.8
-394.3

Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam

MILITARY COMMERCIAL JOINT


VIETNAM JS COMMERCIAL BANK F
BANK FOR INVESTMENT AND DEVE
HOA PHAT GROUP JSC
PETROVIETNAM GAS JOINT STOCK
BANK FOR FOREIGN TRADE JSC
BAO VI ET HOLDINGS
MASAN GROUP CORP
VINGROUP JSC
VIETNAM DAIRY PRODUCTS JSC

Banks
Banks
Banks
Miscellaneous Man
Oil& Gas
Banks
Insurance
Investment Companie,
Real Estate
Food

1'1 07
2,969
2,849
1,215
5,015
5,791
1,951
2,342
4,693
7,366
81,061

8.0
10.3
10.0
7.0
15.5
21.6
37.0
29.9
74.2
21.6
20.5

-16.1
54.2
-23.0
57.2
-50.8
62.1
6.7
5483.3
21.4
38.7
7.2

1.1
1.1
1.5
1.7
2.7
2.8
3.3
3.4
4.0
7.2
7.4

4.3
3.7
4.5
5.4
5.0
2.2
1.6
0.0
0.0
3.6
3.6

-87.2
157.8
244.2
17.4
-39.0
-80.5
-30.3
103.9
59.4
-38.4
18.1

--->~

Stock Coverage - Asian Frontier Largest Caps


Ticker
Bangladesh (4 securities)
SQUARE BD Equity
LAFCEM BD Equity
GRAM BD Equity
BATBC BD Equity
Pakistan (15 securities)
NBP PA Equity
OGDC PA Equity
UBL PA Equity
HBL PA Equity
KELPA Equity
PPL PA Equity
MCB PA Equity
ENGRO PA Equity
LUCK PA Equity
FFC PA Equity
HUBC PA Equity
EFOODS PA Equity
FML PA Equity
PAKT PA Equity
NESTLE PA Equity
Sri Lanka (2 securities)
JKH SL Equity
CTC SL Equity
Vietnam (10 securities)
MBB VN Equity
CTG VN Equity
BID VN Equity
HPG VN Equity
GAS VN Equity
VCB VN Equity
BVH VN Equity
MSN VN Equity
VIC VN Equity
VNM VN Equity

Name
SQUARE PHARMACEUTICALS LTO
LAFARGE SURMA CEMENT L TO
GRAMEENPHONE LTO
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO BAN
NATIONAL BANK OF PAKISTAN
OIL & GAS DEVELOPMENT CO LTO
'
UNITED BANK LTO
HABIB BANK LTO
K-ELECTRIC LTO
PAKISTAN PETROLEUM LTO
MCB BANKLTD
ENGRO CORPORATION LTO
LUCKY CEMENT
FAUJI FERTILIZER COMPANY LTO
HUB POWER COMPANY
ENGRO FOODS LTO
FEROZE 1888 MILLS LTD
PAKISTAN TOBACCO COLTO
NESTLE PAKISTAN LTD

/COVE~
!Ju;

PIE

P/B

I! BE1 IN PAj<JSrA/11

F~~ 7!-IU

6~0v~
AC-Ro~ A~ lA TH-E..eE~
LJ~r oF f.INI/VArcHEb sroc/.t.J 7

Analyst
Coverage

Gearing

A ~~6E

Uncovered Asia
1
2
2
13
15
19
18
13
16
18
12
16
18
17
10

0
2

JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC


CEYLON TOBACCO CO PLC

7
3

MILITARY COMMERCIAL JOINT


VIETNAM JS COMMERCIAL BANK F
BANK FOR INVESTMENT AND DEVE
HOA PHAT GROUP JSC
PETROVIETNAM GAS JOINT STOCK
BANK FOR FOREIGN TRADE JSC
BAO VI ET HOLDINGS
MASAN GROUP CORP
VINGROUP JSC
VIETNAM DAIRY PRODUCTS JSC

7
5
5
9
6
6

3
7
8
10

US$2.3 trillion in mkt cap over 800+


stocks with around US$1 trillion in
Revenue that are covered by 3 or
less analysts (Bioomberg data)

{THg 1}/CJ..VIJp.t CHI/IIA


A-HA#J

ANNUAL PERFORMANCE
Year

2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010

MSCI FM
Asia Index

MSCI Frontier
Markets

-13.34
16.64
18.29
11.35
-31.80

-14.07
7.21

(%)
MSCI ACWI

I'R/o,e ra PA!t /~/AN~


f/P6R~E f11/ WEER.

FfYI

4.50
All htJJlq) 2.65

!Y)IJ/lf YIE~

I..OW,/f.

PE,e

!=-eOtv111!fll!

PIE

PIE Fwd

12.37
11.01
19.33

na
na
15.43

DivYld(%)

i f [ft'm.

-1.84
4.71
23.44
16.80
-6.86
13.21

26.32
9.25
-18.38
24.24

FUNDAMENTALS (MAY 31,2016)

1.97@
1.40
2.03

.
IN

f- Em.E!i?dlh6 P'IARNEZ

MSCI Frontier Asia Index

PIBV

1400

CJ.IoPPY IVl>E
1300

1200

Last Price
High on 12/29/10
Average
Low on 01/18/12

1103.11
1416.41
1152.32
916.86

1000

900
2009

2010

2011

@MSC! Frontier Asia!naexI) Members

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

33 Members

2} Historical Su

VNrlt...

Stats

'T#I~

W1<

~/lk.J~rA/11 ()OI'YIINA//)

MCB
HBL
VIC
LUCK

PK
PK
VM
PK

SQUARE

BD

OGDC
JKH

SL

MSN

ENGRO
FFC

UBL
PSO
VCB
HUBC
GRAM
COMB
LAFCEM

PPL
NBP

HPG
POL

rH IN/)~ ~lt1f >s-o/.


W16HT"IN6.

rilE ral" n'E/6 #rE.})

PK

7V~-"~""'

VM
PK
PK
PK
PK
VM
PK
BD
SL

<E- .rrocll.J.
A-r I..EAP A

~EW

:F/20114 EA CI-I MAJekE/ :


:IN- :E'Mfl- t.l.!r : -

35000

30000
lf~r:~m=><>ntun,...,n.,

25000

BD
PK
PK
VM
PK

1.829859
1.652116
1.596339

20000

15000

t<s ltJo

ttJI)EX .

. Last Price
High on 06/06/16
Average
Low on 01/26/09

2006[__

2007

2013

10000

36979.96
37352.27
17335.50
4815.34

2014

_j__20:l_~_

5000

2016

~ 11/ARilE~

Asia's Key Frontier Markets

o.s /7oa J>N 6/JP

GDP

4i]m PCOP/.. (tOIINb)

> ()$"(}()

(USDbn)
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
total/average

l'N IN tt'J/d CI/I>

{rAiil STIW).

172
243
98
186
699

Population
Population under 15 yrs
(m)
(%)
169
31
199
32
21
25
94
24

28

483

Impact on the MSCI Pakistan - RaHrr SHARIVIA


MSCI will reclassify the MSCI Pakistan Index from Frontier Markets to Emerging Markets. Implementation of this
reclassification will happen in one step and coincide with the MSCI May 2017 Semi-Annual Index Review (SAIR).
As per the recent MSCI simulated list, the MSCI Pakistan Index will have 9 constituents under Emerging Markets,
compared to 16 stocks under Frontier Markets currently. The weight of Pakistan in the MSCI Emerging Markets
Index and MSCI Asia ex Japan Index at full inclusion could potentially by 0.20% and 0.24% respectively. This
reclassification of the MSCI Pakistan Index could potentially bring US$ 38Sm of inflows from passive asset
managers. Figure 2 highlights the potential inflows as a result ofthis reclassification of the MSCI Pakistan Index.
Note that Pakistan Petroleum (PPL PA), K-Eiectric (KEL PA) and Pakistan Telecom (PTC PA), currently member of
the MSCI Frontier Market Index, will not find any place even in the MSCI EM Small Cap Index as per the
Emerging Markets requirements and
likely losers in this reclassification process. National Bank Pakistan (NBP
PA), Indus Motor Company (INDU PA), Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA PA) and Kot Addu Power Company (KAPCO PA),
currently member of the MSCI Frontier Market Index, will likely move to the MSCI EM Small Cap Index.

are

1711 L.OtAI-

Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index


D Members
2) Historical
13) Stats

INbEX

I
ll) HBL
I, 12)
MCB

5.922929
4.919857
4.596368
4.404991
4.372302
4.175842
4.126543
4.115699
4.028552
3.974643

Bank Ltd
Bank Ltd
& Gas Development Co Ltd
ro Corp Ltd/Pakistan
Power Co Ltd/The
Bank Ltd/Pakistan
1888 Mills Ltd
Fertilizer Co Ltd
stan Petroleum Ltd
Cement Ltd

! 13)0GDC
114) ENGRO
j 15) HUBC
16) UBL
lnFML
18) FFC
119) PPL
[20) LUCK
1

V CNINit A.tHARE$

300
250
200
150
100
50

2009

2010

1. .

2011

2012

'--~-

2013

2014

2015

2016

{i(IETIIAN}- I<I C. I< IN6 8u1T

CLSA

Infofax Daily
(tJ

tony.nafte@clsa.com

Asian exports remain under pressure. This is no revelation, here we assess to what extent individual countries
have maintained market share in these depressed trading conditions. China's share of the US market, while still
the largest, has been declining (first chart). Arguably, China's share would be even lower but for the drop in
Opec's share of US imports to 3.1% (down 2.5ppt from 2014).
For gauging market share among other Asian economies, both US and China imports (second chart) are
relevant in order to take account of Asia's elaborate intermediate supply chain. ~
US import share: Asia breakdown 2016 vs 2014

China import share: Asia breakdown 2016 vs 2014


10.4

Korea
Japan

9.2
9.1
8.5

us
Taiwan
Australia
Malaysia

Vietnam
Taiwan
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
Australia
Philippines

D2016
m2014

Thailand
Vietnam
Singapore

3.0
2.3
2.2

.>---~ 1.5

Indonesia
Hong Kong
Philippines

%share
Hong Kong .J!-~--...----...----...----...-20
15
10
5
0

The much bigger stand out in emerging Asean is


Vietnam's share of US
imports is now the highest in Asean; its share of
Chinese imports will soon exceed Thailand's share.
Vietnam's challenge to become Asia's next major
manufacturing hub contrasts with Indonesia and the
Philippines whose shares of US and China imports
have hardly budged.

India

1.3

8~

2016

,;T(I/Yif>

02014

~R.

V J.1"A./A M
%

-F=-.:.;.:....---~--....----.----.--0

10

@ Vietnam.

As for competitiveness in emerging Asean


. Malaysia may be edging ahead of Thailand.
Both economies though, have labour supply
constraints and high wages and will ultimately be
displaced by Vietnam as Asia's key manufacturer.
US electronics imports from emerging Asean

China's imports from emerging Asean


600

1250

220

sa, Jan
08=100

1000

500
170
400
300
200

120

--Malaysia R.H.S.

--Thailand R.H.S.
100 ~--r--~~~-T~~~~~~---4 100
Apr
12
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16
Apr 10 Apr 11

70 ~-~~-T----r----.....------4 0
Mar08
MarlO
Mar12
Mar14
Mar16

9~1'n f>E0/>1-.E s-rll:.IVIA/6 7V eE


771 A/E'J-1"' P/6 THI::' IN AJI~
<.......

Vietnam

"-)

Land 8t environment
Area (km 2 )
Coastline (km)

331,210
3,444

Demographics

'"\.Vith our pioneering spil"it we are


going to breal{ into some geat new marl{ets."

Population (000')
Population growth rate(%)
Urban population (%)
Net migration rate (migrants/COO')
Unemployment rate (%)

1.10
30
{0.30)

FRoM A ~ECENT

fl*r'NIIN SNAP.JNtJr

peBt:IJr4 rJotJ Bi J-

Y~ DRAGON
~~CAPITAL

ACCELERATING GROWTH
GDPGROWTH
7.0
%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Potential GDP

6.5

ONE oF rHE FNrE.!r


b/i!.t>flllr# /t.Ar!E.! 1/J

6.0

/14/A

I 1711 VltbR~

5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5

2010

2011

2012

A/'1.6 r)JI.J I~ PEIA16 I>JVvEN


II"CP.EIUt#(;,l. Y 8'1 P~tvATE 1- FoR16/11
/llri'17/E..f ~AiHER. THAN rilE srArE

Y~. DRAGON
~~CAPITAL

2013

2016F

2015F

2014

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH VS PEERS

325
Hourly for all
workers, re-

300

based to 1991

275

GDP BY OWNERSHIP

250
41
%

225

40
200
39
175

38
150
37

36

35

125
100
1981

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015F

f 34

ExCELt..E/1/T WoR~ ETH!t;- rH'Y

ARE CJ..eAR.I..Y j)OI/116 SomTHIN6

I 33
I

I! 32

-~

59
,.---,--.,.---,-----,--,.-,- c--,----T-r--.---r-,-- --,- --,----,----. 31
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
2014

!<1611-T.

ACCELERATING GROWTH
DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION

10
%
9

~-------

--------------

TOP-5 MANUFACTURING
AND COMMODITY EXPORTS

8
8,500

$m

8.000

-M:1nuf:-:idtnes

7,500

(~OilllllOflltiPS

7.000

Top 5
Cell Phones
Gatmenls
Electronic Goods
Footwear
Machinery I Tools

6,500
6.000

coJ??mo!> 'r!J~s

5,500

Atec UE/1116
t.~r B111/V.IJ

5.000
4,500

4.000
3,500

2,500

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016F

Co MfltW.IJ lrtt=...f

3.000
[

2.000

Top5
Fisheries
Crude Oil
Rice
Coffee
Rubber

1.500 .
1,000

. ~~ . ~ . !.3tf/i_l.!!.~. ~f:_AR

500

0 !

CLSA Asia Pacific ex-Japan asset allocation


MSCI AC Asia
CLSA
recommended
Pacific ex-Japan
welghtlngs
weightings
9-June-16
8-June-16

Mismatch
from current
benchmark

Dec

Australia

21.3%

5.0%

-16.3%

China

23.9%

20.0%

-3.9%

Hong Kong

9.6%

9.0%

-0.6%

India

7.7%

24.0%

16.3%

Indonesia

2.4%

5.0%

2.6%

13.5%

12.0%

-1.5%

Malaysia

2.7%

1.0%

-1.7%

New Zealand

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

Philippines

1.5%

6.0%

4.5%

3.9%

4.0%

0.1%

11.1%

9.0%

-2.1%

Korea

Singapore
Taiwan

Der:

Ul

Dec

cHAI~ MAINTAIN~ A

.2-0/.

0/=F-P!~'TE

//VE/6H771'16 IN
11'> Air ALJ.oCA-11/J
Fo/? VI~1JJilM 1~ ().S/6.f-P/II

_MII~J<.Er. ----.,..,..,...-~ PA~grM !l&r~


60000

3.0%

2.1%

Thailand

og

50000

(i.o%

Vietnam

100.0%

100.0%

Total
Source: CLSA, MSC!

40000

30000

YiTNAM

1166RE6ArE

..r;ocR /VlAR~ET CA~ !Jo w Ar ALt. riME f/161/s.

( WCAfl Y!Er /IVIJE)C)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20000

10000

------------~--~-

-t

~--~-

---~--~---------~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-----------,

IPO'S: POISED TO SURGE -AND OFFER VALUE


~---~--------~----~--~~-----~---~~----

~~~~fT1~

-~----------~-~-------~---

PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM, 2014-16

Official plan to sell off 430 SOEs in


2014-16, worth $28bn in book value
$6bn in book value done so far,
raising $800m - so much more to go
Government needs the money as fiscal
deficits persist at 5-6% of GDP
Top 20 companies are the bulk of the
program at ea $22bn

Satra Corp

25-45

4,000

MobiFone

25-49

3,500

Airport Corp of Vietnam

25

1,180

GenCo's 1, 2 and 3

25

1,520

Vietnam Cement Group

30

1,100

PetroVietnam Power Corp

30

700

25-49

400

Ben Thanh Hospitality

If 15% is offered to public, market will


need to show $3.5n in 2016-17

!YJ,t/YB /}/If W/J.~


rf!E /Nij/(

Book Val
($m)

IPO
(%)

Company

b IV/3

/(/C~~

There is not that much spare capital


around, so prices still reasonable

IPO'S: STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN PRICING

Vietcombank

10

8
7

2014-15
1x

2009-13:
13x

12
PBR
11

Y~- DRAGON
..,.~CAPITAL

Bao Viet
Holdings

fpo
Saigon
Brewing

oe

<::

VAt. v4 r/OIV.f"

/IRE A F/t.AC..r!0/11
t7F W#A7 rHIEY

PV
Fertilizer

WER ?RE-Cl<!/{

5
4

PVGas
Bank of
lnd'l Dev't

Vietinbank

2
1

Petrolimex

-------------------------

Vietnam Steel

Vinatex
DCM

Cienco
etal

(1)~-----~-_L---~----~----~--~-~------~
Oct-06
Feb-08
Jul-09
Nov-10
Apr-12
Aug.-13
Dec-15

-------------------~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-------------.

------ ----~ErNAIIf!t- Lt~eAJ.-INJJU


I~ .!1-llJ.. A I.0/116 wAY FA?OM T/1/F

SooN ro

~~~~

--2o~6/7 -''e~8e~ ;,.JU -V.,~.(/~;o,fl-' -

-ovr

!IAVE: ttJWJE /JOWAI./.JE.fPI~ 171


6~ow'T!I '"' mA~Nr 5~E

OF tr~ /YJtiJ.Tt~ t&A~


T/lAhl#b RMI6E?

1200

1000

800

Last Price
623.58
High on 03/12/07 1170.67
Average
434.98
Low on 07/31/00 101.55

2001

2002

2011

l2004j 2005

2012

2013

2014

306 Members

tHE /N.t>EX I.S .SII/.1~EL.Arlf/Et.Y ro~ HEAvY

Weight (%)

wtnf
;-He rol> to /lPRE.i"EN17#6 ~ /.

VNM
VCB
GAS
VIC
CTG

Ft>tzE16AI CatJ HAVE (]EtfAI


f11!1(/N(:,

our OF

ietnam Dairy Products JSC


Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam
PetroVietnam Gas JSC
ingroup JSC
ietinBank
Bank for Investment and Develop
Masan Group Corp
Bao Viet Holdings
Hoa Phat Group JSC
Military Commercial Joint Stock Ba

BID
MSN
BVH
HPG
MBB

ST~AF6/C.. 811CJ

VIETNAM (Air!J or#ER!_)

13.27986
10.41353
9.27115
8.22206
5.29060
5.05087
4.15966
3.43354
2.15983
1.97634

MNC Investors in Frontier Cos

Ticker
None (146 securities)
VNM VN Equity
VCB VN Equity
GRAM BD Equity
NESTLE PA Equity
CTG VN Equity
PAKT PA Equity
BATBC BD Equity
BVH VN Equity
CTC SL Equity
LAFCEM BD Equity
PMPK PA Equity
COLG PA Equity
SCBPL PA Equity
GLAXO PA Equity
SSI VN Equity
HCAR PA Equity

VIET NAM DAIRY P


BANK FOR FOREIGN
GRAMEENPHONE LTO
NESTLE PAKISTAN
VIETNAM JS COMM
PAKTOBACCO
BRIT AMER TOBACC
BAO VI ET HOLDING
CEYLON TOBACCO
LAFARGE SURMA CE
PHILIP MORRIS PA
COLGATE PALM PAK
STANDARD CHARTER
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SAIGON SECURITIE
HONDA ATLAS CAR

Department store

Russia
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
Hypermarket

China
Vietnam
Indonesia

2009
2
1
1

99
79
19

11
15
56
59
19
94
73
18
84
59
97
30
99
77
16
51

F&N Dairy
INizuho Bank
Telenor
Nestle
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
BAT
BAT
Sumitomo Life
BAT
Lafarge
Philip Morris
Col gate
Standard Chartered
Glaxosmithkline
Daiwa Sec
Honda

!:C?!14!_o__y~-'=~-ea~_.!>.tC)!~!=~!:'~-!-~I.!=!J.!:!!!!~-------------------------Store#

Percent Held

MNC relationship

Short Name

2010
2
1
1

2011
3
1
2

2012
4
1
3

106
82
2
22

124
94
2
28

137
102
4
31

.'

Market Cap
(USDm)
7,318
5,819
4,395
3,259
2,938
2,419
2,066
1,922
1,443
1,139
933
689
686
622
467
433

PIE
21.8
21.4
17.4
39.9
10.3
31.6
27.6
37.0
19.6
31.4
27.3
7.6
24.6
11.6
11.3

>--~ -----~- =-.~--

2013
6

2014
8
1

2015
9

5
1

5
2

1
162
120
6
36

167
119
10
38

168
116*
11

41

WlftLE orHER.

FoR./6/11 Co IJ
HIIVE INI/E~"f"'EIJ
oN

r# 6~ovi-/!J

s1l'

J,"

!4~'-p.

---

-------------------------------------.

ro

fiAJ - /YJIIN.tl6~
1-/0~ oN 7?J M~.Ir
--.---- ----------Or rilE BiJ. ~I/IIJ. OF 20/o :
!?Gir t..ool<$ srucl< :
.
. . . . . . . ' ..

ON/.?-~'!.

'

6000

PER

I S"""1 PB
27 /. Y/rt.~

5000

4000
Last Price
High on 02114111
Average
Low on 12129108

6538.25
7811.82
4851.18
1496.38

3000

2000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

W.ei.gh~t~(~%)~*TI

ll)CTC
12) JKH
13)NEST
14)COMB
15) DIAL
16)SLTL
lnHNB
18) DIST
19) CARS
20) HEMS

SL
SL
SL
SL
SL
SL
SL
SL
SL
SL

........................
Ceylon Tobacco Co PLC
John Keells Holdings PLC
Nestle Lanka PLC
Commerdal Bank of Ceylon PLC
Dialog Axiata PLC
Sri Lanka Telecom PLC
Hatton National Bank PLC
Distilleries Co of Sri Lanka PLC
Carson Cumberbatch PLC
Hemas Holdings PLC

2015

2013

8.150750 /
7.444978
4.901369
4.208281
3.495815
2.852518
2.787791
2.505330
2.027067
2.001924

2016

{i) CJ.'A

f/111

dV NHI&H

rrs

A SA.! t.ANilM
~ECI:I"Tt Y HEtb

2o11, FoR~M.
oh. Fo,e !VE~r YE,qb ::>

The CT CLSA South Asia Frontier Forum 2016 was held from 30 May to 1 June at the Cinnamon Grand, Colombo. Organised
by CT CLSA in collaboration with Asian Tiger Capital Partners, Bangladesh and BMA Capital, Pakistan, the forum was held
under the theme 'Rediscovering Value in the South Asia Frontier'.

CTCLSA

John Keells Holdings


JKH-N ':" Rs.158.0

Investmerft Case and Catalysts

~Ill

Jl1

LAN'.kA 1-'
CoNt,to

FI1Vt,ru Ill/
f.or.J oF PIE'

Operates over 2,000 four star plus city and resort hotel rooms in Sri Lanka and 340 four star plus hotel
rooms in the Maldives, accounting for 31% of PAT in FYlS
o

Two properties in Sri Lanka (in Nuwara-Eiiya and Yala) expected to be added to the portfolio over
the next five years

Financials- Year to 31 March

Leading player in local real estate sector, given its expertise and proven track record

Net Revenue (Rs mn)

Increased demand expected in commercial real estate space, amid the anticipated growth in
investments and business environment in the medium term
Major presence in carbonated soft drink, processed meat, ice cream and supermarket businesses in Sri
Lanka, with further potential opportunities to expand utilizing the strong brand name 'elephant house'

Reported Net Profit (Rs mn)


Net Profit (Rs mn)

Growing presence in banking and insurance sectors through 30% stake in a mid sized Licensed
Commercial Bank (LCB) and 95% stake in an insurer; may explore inorganic growth options

Earnings per Share Growth (%)


Price I Earnings Ratio (X)

(!)

Earnings per Share (Rs)

~Strong balance sheet with a net cash position of Rs.57.0bn as at 31 Mar 2016; known for its skill and

track record in M&A activities, with potential to undertake big ticket projects
Group has ventured into US$820mn Integrated Resort (IR) project - the largest private sector
investment in Sri Lanka
Construction on the project commenced in Apr 2014 with ~25% of total project cost incurred and
0
set to be completed by 2019
t:"-1 No controlling shareholder, meanwhile share owning management has regularly switched focus into
V growth areas in the past successfully managing portfolio of businesses

Price I Earnings Growth (X)


Gross Dividends per Share (Rs)
Gross Dividend Yield(%)
~

Net Book Value per Share (Rs)


Return on Equity (%)
Market Price per Share (Rs)

Z017E
114,710
12,727
12,727
10.7
-7.8
14.8

NIA

3.5
2.2
122.1

.2Jl
158.0

lf!JIJN~A! .~~ri
I.:
'I ,.,IJ~
8'8"!..

rA!-<61

A 9Et..r!A/t,

qPcAI< -CoAL ':

0~ !Nl>EX

IN

!lfE t..Afl6E.$T SflJc/< f'YIIU5 Vt~.JJ<A 1-0.12

~~~~---~~~-l_lrl/.1'

rop 10.

ro

Soorlf

PAIIJ;)

Wei ht (%) t

APU
TTL
GOV
BAN
SHG
BUK
BDS
TCK
UID
NEH

MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO

pu JSC
avantolgoi Jsc
Gobi JSC
Baganuur Jsc
ISharyn Gol JSC
IUB-BUK JSC
BDSec JSC
Talkh-Chikher JSC
Ulsiin Ikh Delguur JSC
Darkhan Nekhii JSC

41.806491
10.451727
8.846745
7.135695
5.045865
4.792389
2.865748
2.757172
2.629707
2.463425

30000

25000

"I don't know if this is such a wise thing to do George"


20000

15000

: ,. Last Price
11061.04
High on 02/28/11 32301.70
Average
12327.21
Low on 07/03/06 1167.84

HA HA
Price/Earnings
Dividend Yield

5000

2011

2006

CLSA
yew .kiang. wong@clsa .corn
+65 6416 7885

Singapore
Property
Reuters
Bloomberg

YOMA.SI
YOMA SP

2o14

.I

2o15

2016

Yoma
S$0.52- BUY

~~ y If-~

ro

Yew Kiang Wong

2013

2012

WEt.l- 6o rrRAit11!

Yon1A

Clearing skies
Housing market firming up; Upgrade to BUY
Our recent meeting with Yoma management further reaffirms our
positive view on Myanmar's housing market, which is on the cusp of a
huge structural boom. To capitalize on this, Yoma has planned more
launches to capture home buyers who are returning to the market.
Incorporating new assumptions for the residential and other businesses,
we raise our target from S$0.63 to S$0.79 and upgrade from 0-PF to BUY.

Priced on 1 June 2016


STI @ 2,790.5
12M hi/lo

S$0.57/0.32

12M price target


:1:% potential

S$0.79
+51%

Shares in issue
Free float (est.)

1,732.9m
45.0%

Market cap

Gs$6ss6)

3M average daily volume

S$4.6m

(US$3.4m)

Foreign s'holding 50.0%


Major shareholders

Pun Serge 37.0%


Aberdeen 10.0%

Financials
--,--------"'""-----
-

Year to 31 March
Revenue (S$m)
Rev forecast change (%)
Net profit (S$m)
NP forecast change(%)
EPS (54:)
CL/consensus (3) (EPS%)
EPS growth (% YoY)
PE (x)
Dividend yield (%)
ROE(%)
Net debt/equity (%)

lSA
111

16A
112

28

37

2.0

2.1

41.3
26.2
0.0
5.4
2.5

7.9
24.3
0.5
5.6
15.2

19CL
18CL
17CL
533
202
146
(12.6)
(10.5)
(5.9)
136
40
31
(26.2)
(61.4)
56.1
7.8
2.3
1.8
115
92
162
242.3
28.4
(16.7)
6.6
22.7
29.2
0.5
~ 0.5
0.5
4.5 ____;,- 5.6-----;. 17.0
50.8
58.1
28.9

-------------

-~---------------------------------,

Off-piste Bloomberg screens -

stocks with little coverage

Off Piste Bberg Screen - Lowest PER with low analyst coverage (mkt cap >US$1 bn)
Ticker

Short Name

1076 HK Equity
6138 HK Equity
3380 HK Equity
1963 HK Equity
AIR NZ Equity
003690 KS Equity
165 HK Equity
9501 JP Equity
7186 JP Equity
2128 HK Equity
5105 JP Equity
3996 HK Equity

IMPERIAL PAC
HARBIN BANK-H
LOGAN PPT
BANK OF CHONGQ-H
AIR NEW ZEALAND
KOREAN REINSURAN
CHINA EVER LTD
TOKYO ELECTRIC P
CONCORDIA FG
CHINALESSO
TOYO TIRE & RUBS
CHINA ENERGY ENG

Market Cap BEst P/E BEst P/B


BEst Oiv ROE Net 0/E BEst Sales Tot Buy
BF12M
BF12M Yid BF12M LF
LF
BF12M
Recs (%)
(USOm)
2,555
2,776
1,909
2,296
1,689
1,319
3,096
6,689
5,464
1,611
1,498
4,337

A/..t.

2.7
3.5
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.9
4.9
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5

0.5
0.7
0.6
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.6

-6.3
14.2
21.4
17.0
27.6
7.2
13.8
12.4

-3.1
-1.2
63.7
36.0
58.3
-8.2
21.1
235.7

3.3
4.1 17.7
4.2 2.8
4.3 12.1

-6.6
73.5
54.7

7.3
7.1
5.7
10.3
2.8
8.6

1,194
2,231
3,411
1,565
3,907
4,126
639
51,632
2,430
2,681
3,795
38,184

100
83
100
50
20
75
100
67
14
100
60
100

Total
Recs

6
5
10

5
8
5
3
7
9
5
2

o J.p<

Off Piste Bberg Screen- Lowest PB with low analyst coverage (mkt cap >US$1bn)
Ticker

Short Name

8341 JP Equity
8377 JP Equity
272 HK Equity
8327 JP Equity
20 HK Equity
8359 JP Equity
8334 JP Equity
45 HK Equity
8385 JP Equity
8369 JP Equity
41 HK Equity
8354 JP Equity
7180 JP Equity
10 HK Equity
8382 JP Equity
8418 JP Equity
148 HK Equity

77 BANK LTD
HOKUHOKU FINANCI
SHUI ON LAND
NISHI-NIPPON CIT
WHEELOCK & CO
HACHIJUNI BANK
GUNMA BANK LTD
HK&S HOTELS
IYO BANK
BANK OF KYOTO
GREAT EAGLE
FUKUOKA FINANCIA
KYUSHU FINANCIAL
HANG LUNG GROUP
CHUGOKU BANK LTD
YAMAGUCHI FINANC
KINGBOARD CHEM

Market Cap BEst P/E BEst P/B BEst Oiv ROE Net 0/E BEst Sales Tot Buy Total
(USOm)
BF12M
BF12M Yid BF12M LF
LF
BF12M
Recs (%) Recs
1,267
1,553
1,985
1,486
9,095
2,171
1,769
1,602
2,003
2,300
2,637
2,842
2,208
3,693
2,076
2,482
2,048

SomE W/1.-t.. INCt.t/6" .SP4,/A/.,S

8.3
7.7
7.8
6.8

6.6
9.5
7.2
18.7
8.7
14.4
12.1
7.9
9.7
9.8
9.5
8.3
7.2

2.6
3.6
3.0
2.9
3.6
2.9
2.9
2.3
1.8
1.9
2.5
3.6
2.4
3.8
1.8
1.7
4.0

0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4

3.5
5.3
2.1
5.9
7.2
4.6
5.6
2.8
4.3
3.2
6.2
5.9
4.2
5.3
5.6
4.7

-127.4
-166.9
96.8
12.9
23.2
-2.5
48.2
8.9
-41.2
-80.8
28.4
71.7
10.8
4.2
86.7
-226.3
37.8

747
1,264
2,290
1,231
7,609
877
820

33

50
78
50
56

2
9
2

711

0
0
0

811
775
784
1,662
978
895
977
1,025
4,745

0
50

9
3
2
3

2
4
8
7
1
2
2
3
3

38
43

0
100

0
33
100

0~ ;V6T BE Sf/.S"TAII'IA!Jt/E

Off Piste Bberg Screen - Highest Yield with low analyst coverage (mkt c~p >US$1 bn)
Ticker

Short Name

PETD MK Equity
AIR NZ Equity
200012 CH Equity
511 HK Equity
321 HK Equity
JASIF TB Equity
87001 HK Equity
165 HK Equity
2377 TT Equity
GNE NZ Equity
2915 TT Equity
SPRC TB Equity
1308 HK Equity
CMW AU Equity
1528 HK Equity
MAGIC SP Equity
3702 TT Equity
SPK NZ Equity
KIT SP Equity

PETRONAS DAGANGA
AIR NEW ZEALAND
CSG HOLDING CO-B

TVB
TEXWINCA HLDG
JASMINE BROADBAN
HUI XIAN REIT
CHINA EVER LTD
MICRO-STAR INTL
GENESIS ENERGY L
RUENTEXIND
STAR PETROLEUM R
SITC
CROMWELL PROPERT
RED STAR MACAL-H
MAPLETREE GREATE
WPG HOLDINGS LTD
SPARK NEW ZEALAN
KEPPEL INFRASTRU

Market Cap BEst P/E BEst P/B BEst Oiv ROE Net 0/E BEst Sales Tot Buy
LF
BF12M
Recs (%)
(USOm)
BF12M
BF12M Yid BF12M LF
5,653
1,689
2,762
1,456
1,273
1,579
2,589
3,096
1,414
1,451
1,331
1,257
1,339
1,372
3,627
1,994
1,861
4,311
1,409

25.8
4.5
11.3
14.0
10.3
10.7
12.2
4.9
9.8
24.4
6.7
6.7
9.1
12.1
7.3
16.0
9.3
16.1
61.9

4.2
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.6
1.0
0.6
0.6
1.6
1.3

1.1
1.4
1.3
0.5
0.8
1.2
3.7
1.7

21.5
10.3
9.9
9.9
9.6
9.5
9.3
8.6
8.2
8.1
8.1
7.8
7.7
7.7
7.6
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5

16.6
27.6
9.0
16.4
13.0
0.6
13.8
15.0
5.7
33.4
20.2
17.3
18.9
11.0
12.8
11.9
22.6
2.1

-43.5
58.3
63.6
-33.0
-39.8
6.5
12.0
21.1
-36.3
51.3
53.1
0.1
-4.5
59.4
25.4
~64.9

113.0
37.3
116.9

7,202
3,907
1,566
577
1,392
159
516
639
3,175
1,429
267
4,653
1,326
222
1,681
250
16,836
2,469
511

13
20
#DIV/0!
17
75
100
100
100
33
0
33
63
90
13
88
78
33
20
100

Total
Recs

8
5
0

6
8
7
3
5
3
7
6
8
10

8
8
9
9
10

NOT

oFF-PISTE

EVEr<YoNE

Al1>

Ticker
941 HK Equity
700 HK Equity
939 HK Equity
2318 HK Equity
1299 HK Equity
1 HK Equity
3382 JP Equity
688 HK Equity
005380 KS Equity
012330 KS Equity
090430 KS Equity
035420 KS Equity
1925 JP Equity
000660 KS Equity
8591 JP Equity
THBEV SP Equity
2502 JP Equity
1109 HK Equity
055550 KS Equity
051910 KS Equity
017670 KS Equity
051900 KS Equity
600276 CH Equity
600048 CH Equity
034730 KS Equity
1928 JP Equity
096770 KS Equity
9201 JP Equity
PWGR IN Equity
All PM Equity
002790 KS Equity
288 HK Equity
656 HK Equity
000810 KS Equity

CHINA MOBILE
TENCENT
CCB-H
PING AN-H
AlA
CKH HOLDINGS
SEVEN & I HOLDIN
CHINA OVERSEAS
HYUNDAI MOTOR
HYUNDAI MOBIS
AMOREPACIFIC COR
NAVER CORP
DAIWA HOUSE INDU
SK HYNIX INC
ORIX CORP
THAI BEVERAGE
ASAHI GROUP HOLD
CHINA RES LAND
SHINHAN FINANCIA
LG CHEM LTD
SK TELECOM
LG HOUSEHOLD & H
JIANGSU HENGRU-A
POLY REAL ESTA-A
SK HOLDINGS CO L
SEKISUI HOUSE
SK INNOVATION
JAPAN AIRLINES C
POWER GRID CORP
AYALA LAND INC
AMOREPACIFIC GRO
WH GROUP LTD
FOSUN INTL
SAMSUNG FIRE & M

n?EAJ.J IEVEI<Yo/tl, E1111E/!!.

t.o11a oR. 1/IJrES ~E sroG,k.f!.

Not Off Piste - Large Cap stocks with(NO SELL

Short Name

:r

Market
Cap
(USDm)
230,263
205,413
163,804
85,036
69,771
44,673
37,164
30,041.
25,460
21,091
20,445
19,598
19,211
17,605
17,357
16,677
16,080
16,053
15,937
15,207
14,533
14,069
13,695
13,331
13,024
12,320
11,989
11,852
11,832
11,803
11,298
11,114
11,094
11,032

Rec~and >80/o

BEst BEst Div


BEst
Yid
P/B
P/E
BF12M BF12M BF12M
13.2
29.1
4.7
9.6
17.8
10.1
19.4
6.7
5.2
7.1
31.3
26.5
12.2
10.4
6.8
21.2
17.9
6.9
8.2
11.9
10.6
26.4
30.2
5.4
10.6
11.1
7.9
6.4
10.1
24.9
33.3
11.8
7.4
13.8

1.5
7.7
0.7
1.3
2.0
0.8
1.6
1.0
0.5
0.8
6.2
6.8
1.5
0.9
0.7
4.5
1.7
0.9
0.6
1.3
1.0
6.1
6.5
1.0
1.1
1.1
0.8
1.2
1.6
3.5
4.5
1.6
0.8
1.1

3.3
0.4
6.3
1.9
1.8
3.4
2.0
3.1
3.5
1.7
0.5
0.2
2.7
2.1
3.8
3.1
1.7
3.8
3.4
1.8
4.8
0.6
0.3
4.4
1.7
3.6
2.6
3.8
1.8
1.4
0.3
2.7
2.0
2.4

Net D/E
LF

ROE
LF
12.0
28.9
16.4
16.6
8.9
30.1
6.9
20.5
8.6
12.6
17.9
26.5
9.1
17.1
11.7
24.6
7.5
15.9
8.3
9.1
11.1
23.5
24.1
18.3
72.1
8.4
6.8
21.5
14.8
14.3
11.4
14.4
12.9
7.2

Ticker
3 HK Equity
8267 JP Equity
SIME MK Equity
MAXIS MK Equity
2267 JP Equity
CIM AU Equity
9532 JP Equity
1919 HK Equity
7752 JP Equity
1171 HK Equity
6806 JP Equity
SPH SP Equity
6857 JP Equity
6753 JP Equity
4062 JP Equity
LMC MK Equity
UMWH MK Equity
CQR AU Equity
ANTM IJ Equity

HONG KG CHINA GS
AEON CO LTD
SIME DARBY
MAXIS BHD
YAKULT HONSHA CO
CIMIC GROUP LTD
OSAKA GAS CO LTD
CHINA COSCO HO-H
RICOH CO LTD
YANZHOU COAL-H
HIROSE ELECTRIC
SINGAP PRESS HLG
ADVANTEST CORP
SHARP CORP
IBIDEN CO LTD
LAFARGE MALAYSIA
UMW HLDG BHD
CHARTER HALL RET
ANEKA TAMBANG

22,312
12,965
11,639
10,417
8,979
8,958
7,683
6,770
6,257
5,029
5,020
4,541
2,127
2,115
1,661
1,617
1,583
1,460
1,271

12.9
23.0
21.8
27.8

24.8
25.6
15.7

2.9
1.1
1.4
9.1
2.4
3.0
0.9
1.1
0.6
0.5
1.5
1.7
1.5
2.4
0.5
2.1
1.0
1.2
1.0

(%) .J
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

86
93
93
93
83
100
83
87
83
89
91
96
93
86
82
89
80
97
91
91
84
94
100
96
90
86
83
93
98
85
100
100
80
84

(%)

Total
Recs
28
41
30
28
24
15
18
31
41
38
35
26
14
42
17
9
15
32
32
34
31
35
24
23
21
14
36
14
45
20
14
10
10
32

14
7
7
7
17
0
17
13
17
11
9
4
7
14
18
11
20
3
9
9
16
6
0
4
10
14
17
7
2
15
0
0
20
16

ZERo t../1<5.

BEst BEst Div


BEst
Yid
P/B
P/E
BF12M BF12M BF12M
23.2
68.2
20.8
22.2
30.5
22.6
15.0

(%)

77JE SliME TH/.1.16 . .... IJA#6EI!

Not Off Piste - Large Cap stocks witt{No BUY Rec0

Short Name

Tot Buy Tot Sell Tot Hold


Recs
Recs
Recs

WHEAI El/.E~Yo/tiE'S rHI#~II"t

AAI ANAJ.Y.tr LovE-Fsr

Market
Cap
{USDm)

-45.3
-14.2
-96.8
477.2
14.5
34.1
-4.0
6.6
58.7
-15.3
-29.0
-76.3
27.4
-0.1
143.5
24.5
45.1
23.0
203.5
-4.0
31.5
22.5
-49.6
86.2
47.1
33.9
11.9
-37.8
233.1
86.5
-32.7
35.8
37.7
-5.4

BUY RECS

.J.ROE
LF

4.5
0.3
1.8
5.0
1.6

13.8
0.5
7.5
41.8
8.8
13.3
9.4
1.2
5.8
2.5
7.4
8.9
5.8

2.7
3.8
3.5
5.9
1.0

2.2
6.4
-2.9
13.0
-8.0

2.6
1.9
3.4
3.9
0.8
2.8
2.6

Tot Sell Tot Hold


Recs
Recs

Net D/E
LF
32.2
65.8
38.9
191.8
-1.5
-27.0
38.0
119.1
35.9
85.4
-67.2
14.7
-30.5
348.3
-11.4
4.4
30.3
49.9
11.0

(%)

(%)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

62
45
32
46
0
40
18
64
29
56
18
45
62
90
31
67
76
64
55

38
55
68
54
100
60
82
36

71
44
82
55
38
10
69
33
24
36
45

Total
Recs
13

11
22
28
10
10
11
11
14
16
17

11
13
10
16
12
17
11
11

OFF- ,P/STE CL .SA CALl..!____/!

(ott-piste CLSA Calls}~


(j} Consensus likes - CLSA analysts do not
Bberg
ticker

Company Name

3988 HK
2388 HK

Bank of China
Bank of China (HK)
DBS
DBS SP
1113 HK
CK Property
6594 JP
Nidec
TNB MK
Tenaga
NTPC IS
NTPC
005490 KS Posco
1359 HK
Cinda
914 HK
Conch
105560 KS KB Financial
670 HK
China Eastern

Country

CLSA Sector

China
Hong Kong
Singapore
Hong Kong
Japan
Malaysia
India
Korea
China
China
Korea
China

Financial Services
Financial Services
Financial Services
Property
Technology
Power
Power
Materials
Financial Services
Materials
Financial Services
Transport

CLSA Mkt Cap US$ perf


Rec (USDm)
1Y
UPF
SELL
SELL
UPF
SELL
SELL
UPF
SELL
UPF
UPF
SELL
SELL

139,990
31,602
28,846
23,587
21,798
19,414
18,328
15,716
11,865
11,757
11,288
11,161

'BAN/I. Or C!-11/VA (

Asheefa Sarangi
asheefa .sarangi@clsa .corn

+852 2600 8300

Lester Lim
+852 2600 8380

CoN.f1/~US. VIEW~

CliA CALl-

(40.1)
(28.3)
(26.3)
(29.9)
(0.9)
(2.4)
4.3
(11.0)
(46.4)
(43.4)
(16.9)
(33.6)

Core
P/E
Div
growth (Core) yield
2016
2016 2016

(11.0)
(10.6)
(7.6)
7.0
15.5
4.4
6.5
5,048.5
12.2
(12.9)
(20.5)
55.5

H/<)

Straying too far

5.5
12.1
9.7
10.9
26.3
10.6
13.3
10.2
5.0
12.6
10.0
6.7

ROE
2016

5.1
8.1
3.8
3.7
1.0
2.9
3.6
3.7
6.0
2.4
2.7
2.2

Total
Recs

11.70
24.74
10.06
6.53
12.17
14.80
12.02
4.07
14.65
9.08
4.52
17.45

Buy
Rec Ofo

29
15
24
17
26
26
40
36
13
24
30
17

79

so
75
ss
77
S5
75
75
77
75

so
76

8o/. OF ANALY~T.J 1-1-Av A


Bvy- /HHEFA .t'AY .rt:J../.r

Proposed transformation likely to disappoint


BOCHK's multiyear regional expansion story presents risks as well as
opportunity. Given the challenging backdrop and experiences of other
banks that have made similar transitions, we believe risks are skewed to
the downside.

Retaining guidance
Management retained 2016 guidance. YoY revenue growth is expected to be ~
at the lower end of 7-8/o. Costs will be paced to revenue and there will be
some deterioration in asset guality. Management expects earnings growth in
2016 but we believe that a contraction in earnings is more likely. We adjusted
7~i. or= JfidUY.sr.J
our figures to incorporate the outperformance in 1Q16 and allow for a higher
NII baseline in 2017-2018. There are no changes to DPS.
.{AY /?tJ y , Clill

DBS

No change to view
The changes to our forecasts flow through into our target price. We reiterate
our SELL recommendation with a revised target price of S$13.30. Our fair
value PB is 0.8x 17CL BVPS. We remain underweight the Singapore banks.

Nidec

.(AY~

SEJ.L

77% oF ANAt..Y51"! L.II<E N!bEC.. - AfVItr


IS

#or

O#E OF riiEtn

Not immune to cyclicality

amit.garg@clsa.com

Earnings unlikely to grow under cyclical headwinds

+81 3 4578 8049

In this note, we look at some of Nidec's key medium-term opportunities ~


highlighted by management. Despite building more generous c
assumptions in these new areas, we see subdued growth prospegs given X
structural headwinds in 550/o of its business portfolio, where the only
growth products are auto motors and ACIM. We flag further risk of
margin erosion as the deprecation burden rises in the next few years and
'highly profitabie markets deteriorate. We reiterate our SELL rating.

Amit Garg
Claudio Aritomi
+81 3 4578 8044

7S"!. OF ANAL Ysr$ IMIIIE /?bY..! - !io'll>Y f./M 4 .ELL


Cut EPS 18.50/o for 16CL and 150/o for 17CL; rating lowered to SELL
We now believe Posco may fail to capture as much of the spot price gain in its
realized prices with long-term customers as we thought on 22 April when we
raised our 16CL EPS. Accordingly, we cut our EPS by 18.5%, and there could
still be risk of further downside. We lower our old 261,000 won target price
on a 10x 16/17CL PE to 211,000 won, on a 9.5x 17CL PE, and lower our
rating from Outperform to SELL.

Posco
1/

pW IIYltlii1'KJIJ
77115 we~ 11 A

NO# COHJ&it (/.{

.rEt-lr .;1(

r------

----

HF4D OF /<OPA

From: Jong M in Kim, CLSA


Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2016 7:30AM
To: Jong M in Kim, ClSA
Subject: MEDYTOX SELL INITIATION

-------------------------------------,.

rJ.IE ONI. 'I SElL

Medy=rox Inc

ON rHE ST/lEEr

4.50
12
1

Consensus Rating
Buys
85.7%
Holds
7.1%
Sells
7.1%

DONGMIN KIM Has been working on MEDYTOX and healthcare space in Korea for a while with the view of picking up

coverage. Today is her first initiation, and it is quite an eye catcher

>

SHE IS THE ONLY SELl ON THE STOCK WITH A TARGET PRICE C.SO% lOWER THAN THE MOST BULLISH ON THE STREET
The key difference in view with the street- is her scepticism on their overseas distributors interests are NOT aligned
with that of MEDYTOX. Dongmin has some rational arguments as to why both AlLERGAN in Western markets and
BLOOMAGE in China are not incentivized to push Medytox products, and in the meantime the price premium Medytox
commands in domestic Korea does not appear as high as initially thought.
The export growth potential in fillers is very h-igh, which is why we still apply a strong 26x 2017/18 PE multiple for a
W400k/shr ... BUT if her analysis is true that ALlERGAN is not going to be pushing INNOTOX (which we value at W130bn
vs street who sees it at well over $1bn) then the downside is going to be a lot more than the 14% she comes up with.

Other side of the table

Dong Min Kim


min.kim@clsa.com
+82 2 397 8509

Partner interests not aligned, delays expected


Medytox's interests are not aligned with its overseas distributors.
Potential delas in the launch of its liquid botox product Innotox,
beyond Korea and Japan and the entry of its dermal fillers into China
is likely to disappoint investors. We expect these headwinds to weigh
on the company's topline and profit stream and initiate with aSEi:L
and 400,000 won target price.

16lune 2016

/)oE~AII'r SME~l-

6ool!J

71

Misalignment with Allergan


Medytox has signed an exclusive licensing deal with long-standing market
leader Allergan for sales of its new botox product, Innotox, outside of Korea
and Japan. However, there is little incentive for Allergan to cannibalise its
sales without a threat to the status quo and we believe the agreement is
liiiiikely to expedite the launch of Innotox globally.
1
)

>)

Misalignment with Bloomage


WHY HAVE TJIBE.t.l>liRI/Jt/TlJ,e!
Bloomage, Medytox's joint venture partner in China is one of the largest
hyaluronic acid (HA) filler distributors in the local market. While we expect
Bloomage to be fully committed to the launch of Medytox's botox product in
2018 as it does not have such a product in its portfolio, we do not see
genuine motivation to promote Medytox's HA fillers iven its existin HA filler
product line and t e impending launch of a premium HA filler line.
Initiate with SELL
Medytox is fully dependent on partners for overseas sales despite strong R&D
and innovative products. The stock has recently corrected but we see further
downside as the market has not yet revised down its high expectations for
Innotox.

Vc:I.IIJ.c:t!i~!' l'lis:t.f)r:Y
PE bands
600,000

(won)
maxSOx

500,000
4 oo,ooo

300,000
avg23.81x

200,000
sdd15.44x

100,000

Jan 09

mln7.08x

Julll

Dec 13

Jun 16

0.6M

OB{, '!O:a !<$

Financials
Year to 31 December
Revenue (bn won}
Net profit (bn won)
EPS (won)
Cl/consensus (12} (EPS%)
EPS growth (% YoY)
PE (x}
Dividend yield (%)
FCF yield (%}

PB (x}
ROE(%}
EV/Ebit (x}

16CL
127
56
10,587
105
33.6
43.7
0.4
0.6
16.6
43.1
35.1

17CL
157
66
12,458
95
17.7
37.2
0.6
2.1
12.4
38.3
28.4

18CL
199
88
16,482
103
32.3
28.1
0.9
3.3
9.3
37.9

ilo r

c!fEA-~
0.4M

0.3M

Medytox
- 463,000 won - SELL

Market cap

2011

2012

2013

0.1M

US$2,236m

3M average daily volume

13. 7bn won

0.2M

(US$11.8m)
2014

2015

2016

OFF-P/rTE CI.SA CA/.t.S {tt~~~T'!J)

Chi ne se airlines

t./~E~ -ct.~A /)0/ff~,,.

CONJNJ(IJ

Reit~rate non-consensus Underweight call


.
Cl W1th key earnings drivers volatile and unfavourable, share-price weakness and
sector underperformance may not be over just yet.
Cl w_e rei~erate our Underweig_ht sector call with two SELL ratings and an Underperform.
CJ Air Chma (U-PF) the best nsk-reward relative play in our view.

76/. OF ANAJ.'t..f/S
SIIY 1111'1 C#/NA EA.Sff~,AJ
-Nor#~

!~~. . C:.~I!!Pi:l!:l.Y.. . ~i!l.ti!<~I~YI"~CIC:J1_.i:J1!,~9iJ.~i~!..~.'!~/!C::_i~.. !:Xl:!t9lY!I!.. ~I9.J:I . C:.CIP..I:!X...

10
9
8
7
6

~Et.J-

----------WACC

3
2
1
0

8S"i. oF ,4/VAt.Y.f"'T:! IIAVE


1J- .loY.

..

2.5 2.9 2.6

3.4

7751JP
6301 JP
IAG AU
GPTAU
TWE AU
TRUE TB

1- - - - - - - - - -

5.4

4.8
2.4

:<

,,

7.6 7.7 7.7 7.4


~
6.9
''
1---6.0

7.3

- - .. ,,

f:;.

,,
','I

2.3

"

,.

,'

'

"

,. ..
'

'

'-r

#######~~~~~~~&&&
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ '),(;)~'),(;)~ '),(;)~

Ar rffE of"Jf,.1! E#/j OF ritE SPEt::::.:Tl!V/'11

@Consensus doesn't like - CLSA analysts do


Bberg
ticker

7.3

4.6

Tenaga,'

ROIC (%)

Company Name

Canon
Komatsu
IAG
GPT Group
Treasury Wine
True

Country

Japan
Japan
Australia
Australia
Australia
Thailand

Jan van der Schalk


jan. va nderschalk@clsa .corn
+61 2 8571 4245

Swati Reddy
+61 2 8571 4256

IAG

cMA

~a:.

;:----Core
P/E
CLSA Mkt Cap US$ perf growth (Core) yield Gearing
2016
CLSA Sector Rec (USDm)
1Y
2016 2016 2016

Technology
Capital Goods
Insurance
Property
Consumer
Telecoms

BUY
OPF
BUY
OPF
BUY
BUY

37,846
16,766
10,341
7,183
5,473
5,066

14.1
9.4
(16.1)
13.1
(10.3)
(17.0)
13.5
(1.8)
1.1
18.4
4.4
19.2
34.3
34.7
89.4
(40.7) (106.0) (664. 7)

5.2
3.0
7.1
4.3
1.8
0.0

(19.9)
22.1
37.6
13.1
2.2

ROE

2016
8.08
9.02
15.18
6.91
6.24
(0.34)

Total
Recs

15
20
14

11
12
15

Genius.
After, QBE's clever use of reinsurance, IAG ups the ante
Insurance cycles are the direct products of insurer ill-discipline. This
cyclicality creates earnings volatility. Imagine, therefore, an insurer
operating in a structurally advantaged market and, simultaneously, using
reinsurance to reduce earnings volatility. Do this well and, over time,
earnings grow steadily and become dependable. We believe investors
reward certainty and the stock trades on a higher multiple. Furthermore,
"steady earnings" creates capital efficiency, which means prices can drop
but margins can remain. Step up IAG. New CEO Harmer is building a
modem insurer. BUY.

ONLY lt ~- QF ANALY.t'fr L/1: mu ..


I:JAVIb /I o# 0~ A ~Ef/1/
Revenue share ahead of expectations, would rise further

220/o and rising

Though industry revenue growth is below our estimate due to the weak
economy, TRUE's 1Q16 results provided evidence the mobile operating
unit is gaining revenue share faster than we expected. Costs remain the
key to further rerating. We believe risks favour the upside as economies
of scale become more likely with share gains and after TRUE raises
capital, while AIS would seek to avoid destroying shareholder value.
TRUE remains our top Buy among Thai telecoms. We trim our target price
from Bt10.6 to BtlOas we integrate a higher cost for future spectrum and
slightly higher cash operating costs.

David Beller
david. beller@clsa .corn
+66 2 257 4642

Buy
Rec;

20
10
14
18
17
16

----------------

----------------------------------------------------.

~ WIIE.2E CLA ANAl. ysr

Off-piste CLSA EPS forecasts

Fat?ECA.Jr JJEVIATE
Slti/!Fit.IWfi. Y fl?oiVl
rifE srRr

{j) Where CLSA EPS is significantly below Consensus in 2016 and 2017 (with negative recs)
Bberg
ticker

Company Name

5 HK
HSBC
6505 TT
Formosa Petrochem
2888 HK
Standard Chartered
3 HK
HK & China Gas
1326 TT
Formosa Chem
4755 JP
Rakuten
105560 KS KB Financial
PTTEP TB PTTEP
1055 HK
China Southern
010950 KS S-Oil
MPEL US
Melco Crown
STO AU
Santos
000030 KS Woori Bank
MGM China
2282 HK
2338 HK
Weichai Power
PGAS IJ
Perusahaan Gas
DUE AU
DUET
2777 HK
Guangzhou R&F
UNTR IJ
United Tractors
LTG PM
LTG
880 HK
SJM
1072 HK
Dongfang
3765 JP
GungHo
QUB AU
Qube
1313 HK
CR Cement
BANPU TB Banpu
042660 KS DSME
178 HK
Sa Sa
WHC AU
Whitehaven Coal
LSIP IJ
Lonsum
Jumei
JMEI US
SFR AU
Sandfire Res
LEJU US
Leju
MAP! IJ
Mitra Adiperkasa
UMWOG MK UMW Oil & Gas
TEN AU
Ten Network

Country

Hong Kong
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Japan
Korea
Thailand
China
Korea
Hong Kong
Australia
Korea
Hong Kong
China
Indonesia
Australia
China
Indonesia
Philippines
Hong Kong
China
Japan
Australia
China
Thailand
Korea
Hong Kong
Australia
Indonesia
China
Australia
China
Indonesia
Malaysia
Australia

CLSASector

Financial Services
Petro/Chems
Financial Services
Power
Petro/Chems
Internet
Financial Services
Petro/Chems
Transport
Petro/Chems
Hotels & Leisure
Petro/Chems
Financial Services
Hotels & Leisure
Capital Goods
Power
Power
Property
Capital Goods
Conglomerates
Hotels & Leisure
Power
Internet
Transport
Materials
Materials
Capital Goods
Consumer
Materials
Materials
Internet
Materials
Internet
Consumer
Petro/Chems
Media

CLSA
Rec

UPF
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL
UPF
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL
UPF
UPF
SELL
UPF
SELL
UPF
UPF
SELL
SELL
SELL
UPF
SELL
SELL
SELL
UPF
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL
UPF
UPF
UPF
UPF
SELL
SELL

Mkt Cap
(USDm)

US$ perf
1Y

122,266
25;714
23,958
22,315
14,713
14,445
11,288
9,123
8,854
7,916
7,396
6,175
5,862
4,984
4,522
4,522
4,232
4,201
3,886
3,610
3,447
3,135
2,987
2,152
1,970
1,340
1,093
987
794
775
705
632
572
524
495
290

Core EPS
growth

P/E
Div
(Core) yield

2016

2017

2016

2016

(34.7) (25.4)
8.0 (14.2)
(56.0)
nm
(6.4)
(4.5)
5.7
30.5
(34.8)
43.0
(16.9) (20.5)
(29.4)
nm
(48.6)
52.3
21.5
49.8
(30.3)
(0.7)
(38.0) (125.8)
(4.1) (28.6)
(26.6) (40.4)
(33.9)
9.6
(40.8) (22.2)
(10.3)
21.2
6.9
6.9
(32.3) (54.5)
13.6
13.2
(52.6) (54.4)
(65.1) (44.6)
(26.2) (25.9)
(13.1) (17.6)
(49.1) (29.0)
(40.7)
nm
(69.7)
nm
(30.6) (55.2)
(31.4)
nm
(8.5) (27.6)
(79.3)
34.6
(2.6) (40.9)
(58.0)
(2.2)
(26.1)
180.4
(52.5)
nm
(60.5)
nm

16.1
(14.2)
nm
2.3
(4.9)
20.2
(15.3)
nm
(54.1)
(15.4)
20.6
nm
(51.7)
(89.5)
20.0
15.3
(2.3)
(5.7)
(0.5)
17.0
(83.5)
5.5
(20. 7)
(15.9)
(22.8)
97.7
nm
(1.6)
nm
56.4
60.9
17.9
0.6
81.6
nm
nm

13.2
23.1
(19.2)
25.5
24.5
25.3
10.0
(67 .0)
6.8
10.4
71.8
(26.3)
12.5
21.5
18.5
14.7
68.3
5.4
15.3
30.9
19.2
47.4
9.9
33.4
22.1
116.0
(44.6)
20.1
(76.9)
23.4
23.2
21.3
10.1
38.5
(41.4)
(39.3)

8.0
2.2
0.0
2.8
2.3
0.2
2.7
0.4
3.1
1.5
0.6
0.0
2.5
2.2
0.8
3.5
7.6
6.6
4.9
0.6
3.1
1.2
1.5
2.5
1.4
2.5
0.0
5.5
0.0
1.7
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0

Gearing

ROE

2016

2016

CLSA/Consensus
EPS

2016

2011

5.49
77.9
13.98
75.0
(2.97) (234.4)
34.2 12.87
83.0
6.41
69.7
31.4
44.7
9.19
83.1
4.52
79.4
(2.5) (1.21)
(49.4)
180.6 13.77
78.9
51.5 16.37
84.0
2.71
57.1
23.2
65.7 (3.15) (1,630)
3.38
49.7
336.2 35.25
77.8
(20.0)
4.64
84.7
60.3 10.08
64.4
226.1
2.07
39.7
218.3 12.49
82.4
(41.1)
8.93
73.7
191.0
4.18
58.5
40.8
6.08
69.0
( 51.5)
1.05
82.0
(91.3) 28.77
84.6
11.6
4.54
77.1
67.7
2.68
55.2
151.7
0.85
26.8
(807.9) (5.64)
(69.5)
(10.5) 16.21
84.7
31.4 (0.49) (136.5)
(11.4)
6.07
61.1
(18. 7)
5.34
56.3
3.5 11.10
78.1
(60.6)
7.84
65.3
59.9
6.02
80.1
84.0 (1.49)
26.7
2.3 (5.06)
53.9

82.!1
69.1
63.4
81.2
64.1
82.9
64.7
50.5
37.4
69.1'>
46.7
1.0
22.6
8.6
83.!1
74.1
34.4
70.8
70.1.
59.5
18.6
49.3
81.:1.
54.3
37.9
36.4
8.9
83.9
(511.5)
82.1
54.:1.
64.2
58.3
82.6
(1.8)
32.9

23.3

HSBC - Move from 0-PF to U-PF


HSBC's has achieved 45% of its US$275bn targeted reduction in risk weights.
The sale of Brazil in 1H16 its will also be helpful for capital generation. The
bank is also making good progress on its cost programme. However the
revenue environment, both structurally and cyclically continues to be
challenging. This will make it difficult for HSBC to achieve positive jaws in
1.Q.l.. And the potential of sizeable one-off items due to past missteps
continues to be a threat to overall PBT and BVPS progression. Asset quality is
expected to deteriorate although .we do not expect a sharp rise in NPLs.

AJ#FA IS ~ 20/.
/Jt.OIN CoN.fEA/.J(/ J
EP~

FOR 20/6 1- 20/7

We revise our 16-18CL NPAT to incorporate lower revenues, lower associate


income and higher interest expense on quasi-equity instruments. The net
result is a 5-13% reduction in NPAT. We make no changes to DPS.

HI<+ C/-11/tiA 6A.S1/o w ~ 20 /.


BELOW rHE .rr~ESI

Consensus earnings need to be cut


We marginally raise our gas demand growth estimate for 2016 but our
earnings remain largely unchanged given both the Rmb and oil are still below
their 2015 averages. Our earnings are 9%/11% below consensus estimates
for 2016/2017 which we believe will have to be revised down. The stock is
expensive at 24x earnings. SELL.

PTTEP (PTTEP TB -Target Bt57 - TSR -31% - SELL)

PTTEP will ~r in the near term reversing the r.ecent rally if oil prices drop
following the June Opec meeting, as there is no progress on production
control. Also it still faces long-term challenge on reserves and the changing
regulatory regime in Thailand's O&G exploration and production.

VvA Y 8EJ..OW

"'Tff ~rRr.

.SC 0

or 2o17

CoN.J EI./JtJ.!

@where CLSA EPS is significantly ahead of Consensus in 2016 and 2017 (with positive recs)
Bberg
ticker

Company Name

Country

7751 JP
035420 KS
338 HK
2357 TT
CPFTB
2474 TT
2009 HK
4938 TT
4912 JP
000120 KS
SMGR IJ
347 HK
JSMR IJ
MYOR IJ
493 HK
1530 HK
TBIG IJ
RFMD SP
SMRA IJ
IRE AU
934 HK
BTPN IJ
039030 KS
1347 HK
ECWMK
MRC MK
DMPL PM
6166 TT
DILD IJ
6094 JP
DNAAU
ssi PM
BEST IJ
1623 HK

Canon
Naver
Shanghai Petrochem
Asustek
CP Foods
Catcher Tech
BBMG
Pegatron
lion
CJ Korex
Semen Indonesia
Angang
Jasa Marga
Mayora Indah
Go me
3SBio
Tower Bersama
Raffles Medical
Summarecon
Iress
Sinopec Kantons
BTPN
EO Technics
Hua Hong Semi
Eco World
MRCB
Del Monte Pacific
Ad link
Intiland
FreakOut
Don a eo
ss I
Bekasi Fajar
Hi long

Japan
Korea
China
Taiwan
Thailand
Taiwan
China
Taiwan
Japan
Korea
Indonesia
China
Indonesia
Indonesia
China
China
Indonesia
Singapore
Indonesia
Australia
China
Indonesia
Korea
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Malaysia
Philippines
Taiwan
Indonesia
Japan
Australia
Philippines
Indonesia
China

CLSA Sector

Technology
Technology
Petro/Chems
Technology
Consumer
Technology
Materials
Technology
Consumer
Transport
Materials
Materials
Infrastructure
Consumer
Consumer
Heaithcare
Telecoms
Healthcare
Property
Technology
Petro/Chems
Financial Services
Technology
Technology
Property
Property
Consumer
Technology
Property
Internet
Hotels & Leisure
Consumer
Property
Petro/Chems

CLSA
Rec

Mkt Cap
(USDm}

BUY
BUY
BUY
OPF
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
OPF
OPF
OPF
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
OPF
OPF
BUY
BUY
BUY
OPF
BUY
BUY
BUY
OPF
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
OPF
OPF
BUY

37,846
19,628.
8,122
6,422
6,315
5,897
5,546
5,453
4,567
4,404
3,948
3,904
2,698
2,647
2,576
2,524
2,327
2,024
1,671
1,447
1,208
1,094
1,017
955
745
501
490
429
429
393
282
194
193
170

Core EPS
growth

US$ perf

Div
P/E
(Core} yield

Gearing

ROE

:,
CLSA/Consensus
EPS

1Y

2016

2017

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2017

(16.1)
10.1
(5.5)
(8.5)
18.2
(34.3)
(42. 7)
(24.5)
104.1
20.5
(29.2)
(45.8)
(15.4)
51.7
(55.3)
(19.5)
(27. 7)
5.2
(8.1)
8.9
(42.2)
(36.7)
(9.9)
(37.2)
(25.1)
(19.5)
(7.2)
(42.6)
(4.1)
229.5
(43.0)
(72.9)
(28.3)
(64.3)

9.4
59.9
36.2
27.9
62.1
2.6
11.2
1.7
36.4
73.7
7.6
nm
35.6
22.1
4.6
59.1
17.0
15.3
5.1
12.5
34.6
21.1
161.8
22.1
161.2
62.4
26.3
36.0
16.4
617.8
431.7
8.2
17.8
52.4

3.5
47.3
11.1
6.8
12.7
27.5
13.7
18.4
20.7
55.4
10.0
nm
(8.0)
17.3
7.7
32.5
17.1
21.8
17.3
12.6
20.6
5.5
69.5
8.9
62.6
17.3
8.6
31.1
20.7
125.9
7.1
18.7
30.0
31.7

14.1
25.5
7.7
9.8
15.4
7.4
4.7
7.7
31.7
36.3
9.8
(30.3)
17.6
22.5
9.8
17.7
20.4
11.2
16.9
22.5
6.7
5.2
19.0
7.9
19.9
15.7
6.2
16.3
11.5
84.7
4.4
8.2
7.4
4.7

5.2
0.5
5.2
7.2
3.6
5.4
1.7
7.1
0.7
0.5
3.8
0.0
1.5
1.2
4.1
0.0
0.4
3.8
0.2
3.9
1.3
0.0
0.5
2.3
0.0
1.9
4.9
4.6
1.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
6.4

(19.9)
(33.2)
(10.1)
(33.3)
106.1
(42.9)
67.7
(4.2)
(37.7)
53.1
21.4
60.4
124.0
32.2
(29.7)
34.7
655.4
1.7
38.5
39.8
45.8

8.08
33.39
21.10
12.69
11.55
21.94
6.04
15.46
10.70
4.54
18.91
( 1.54)
17.50
25.46
7.38
13.86
69.38
12.73
19.75
24.89
13.81
18.17
19.37
7.41
3.73
5.69
16.49
19.56
10.16
15.84
22.83
10.43
10.65
7.89

120.0
123.1
115.4
115.8
138.1
117.3
191.0
115.2
119.5
125.5
116.1
352.5
124.5
123.6
119.8
119.8
118.2
317.3
118.7
122.1
115.8
158.0
143.9
119.8
130.5
174.0
194.8
116.9
122.0
147.9
137.9
145.1
148.5
144.6

115.4
136.0
138.2
116.3
126.2
143.8
173.7
121.2
124.1
153.5
122.3
1,575.8
116.7
119.0
121.6
122.1
115.6
340.9
129.4
115.2
126.5
142.2
157.1
118.6
117.9
163.3
177.7
123.2
174.4
149.2
123.1
127.8
148.1
158.7

1.7
(13.5)
39.8
90.5
493.9
{24.8)
33.9
(70.6)
4.1
48.3
28.0
48.4

Biopharmaceuticals leader

Serena Shao

Solid near-term growth plus strong long-term R&D potential 3

serena .shao@clsa .corn

+852 2600 8278

3SBio has demonstrated its leadership in China's biopharmaceuticals ~


space through the successful marketing of the generic version of Amgen's c
Epogen, an anaemia medicine. With its strong product pipeline, sales "&.
team and manufacturing capacity, it is well positioned to capture
opportunities from the imminent expiration of global patents for biologic
drugs - a market with a high entry barrier and an estimated growth rate
in China of 180/o pa over 2016-19. We estimate over 2x three-year returns
on the stock. Maintain BUY with a HK$13 target.

Eugene Huang
+852 2600 8757

g.

Katherine Fu
+852 2600 8677

13 June 2016
70
60

(Rmbb~)

100

90
BO

50

3SBio
FoUCAJTS ALl..
H~AbiN6 )./o,e.Tfl
A-rA ~~~~/.DRAT ~

40

70
60

30

50

20

40
30

10

20

...1

u
~

RMBmnbTotal Revenue

- % Growth (YoY)
73%

[ 80 %
I

70%

~~

f 50 o/o

3,500
3,000

0.7

....

"'...

10
0

40%

1,500

!.

20%

0.2

~ 10%

0.1

15A

16CL

17CL

18CL

0%

r 70%

0.4
0.3

+-~--L-~~--~~~--~-r~--~-,--~~~

- o / o Growth (YoY)

50%

30%

RMB) =Adjusted EPS

~
1

Global

0.5

2,000
1,000

China

f 60%

1 40o/o

14A

.....

0.6

2,soo

5oo
0

...1

~~~Leu!~~!i.t:IO!~t.~~!!.~ ... -.. ~

3.!:i.~ic;, t:~Y~I11.14i!...
5,000
4, 50
0

...1

30%
27%

20%

10%

0.0 +---L--.....l---r---l...---~-r--.l---..1.--,---'-----'---l- Oo/o


17CL
18CL
15A
16CL

I"\,

SERENA 1$

3SBIO

> 2o/.

Afl~/) oF Co#O:N~CIS

Valuation

Price dropped by more


than -300/o YTD

China
Healthcare

35Bio's share price has fallen by more than 30% YTD, which appears to be a
reaction to the delay in Ipterbin's approval. It is now at a historical low
valuation of 18x one-year forward year PE. We believe the negatives have
largely been priced in over the past two months. Management has confirmed
that it would re-submit the application within a year after communication
from the CFDA. We think the market has over-reacted and thus the current
price provides a good opportunity to buy 35Bio.

Priced on 13 June 2016


HS CEI@ 8,619.9

Based on the 0.8x industry average PEG and 35Bio's 32% EPS growth Cagr
outlook for 16-18CL, we derive our one-year price target of HK$13.00 based
on 22x 17CL EPS of HK$0.60. We estimate a three-year fair value of
HK$25.00 on HK$0.89 19CL EPS using a similar 28x multiple.

12M hi/lo

Figure 22

Reuters
Bloomberg

1530.HK
1530 HK

HK$11.14/7.16

12M price target


% potential

HK$13.00
+67%

Shares in issue
Free float (est.)

2,255.3m
32.9%

Market cap

])-RATI#6 oPporz71/tVtT'/

.~!?J~.!.!:l ..!:l!!~:;.Y~Iilr.f.!:l~lilr.cl.~~--l!~.r'lcl.
35

--Fwd P/E
-1sd:21.9x

Max:33x

- M in: 16.6x

\~ f:;;::;p~v--, ~.

3M average daily volume


HK$83.1m
(US$10.7m)
Foreign s'holding 45.5%

20

Major shareholders
CS Sunshine 28.3%
Decade Sunshine 26.2%

15

----------------~

1,131
292
0.0

1,673
526
23.3

nm
nm
0.0
0.0
0.0
29.1
54.0

nm
27.1
0.0
1.0
2.5
16.1
(15.9)

16CL
2,903
837

17CL
3,746
1,109

18CL
4,525
1,457

3~7-~1___~49~~2_____6~4~.6~

CoNJE#~VJ

(I2~1~2~o----~1~2~2----~13~i)< b&Anc~
59.1
18.4
0.0
1.6
2.4
13.9
34.7

HK-:-Iisted C:l:tina. PJ:Iar'!';:t_"i:Jiu;:t!!f:Jr'l!> ~1'11Piilr~~ll.. ~i:t!;t1E! ..


Mkt cap
Company
Ticker CRN Price
USD m
Sinopharm
1099 HK HKD 35.9
12,796
Shanghai Pharm
2607 HK HKD 17.3
6,889
Baiyunshan
874 HK HKD 17.5
4,321
Sihuan Pharma
460 HK HKD
1.6
2,123
Sino Biopharm
1177 HK HKD
5.1
4,879
China Medical System
867 HK HKD 10.8
3,467
Luye
2186 HK HKD
4.6
1,968
2196 HK HKD 19.2
Fosun Pharma
6,409
CSPC
1093 HK HKD
6.8
5,185
SSY GROUP LTD
2005 HK HKD
2.5
931
6826 HK HKD 34.8
717
Haohai Biopharm
2,079
Tong Ren Tang
1666 HK HKD 12.6
950 HK HKD
5. 9
448
Lee's Pharma
1,747
570 HK HKD
3.1
China Traditional Med.
587 HK HKD
0. 7
638
Hua Han Biopharm
1349 HK HKD
7.1
845
Fudan-ZJ
507
1681 HK HKD
4.0
Consun Pharma
2348 HK HKD
5.9
609
Dawnrays Pharma
2877 HK HKD
8.1
865
Shineway
2,237
1513 HK HKD 33.9
G Uvzon Ph a rma
2,524
1530 HK HKD
7.8
[!!1 35810
927
1558 HK HKD 16.0
HEC Pharm
Average

-+1sd:28.2x

30

~$2,56om::J

Year to 31 December
Revenue (Rmbm)
Net profit (Rmbm)
EPS (fen)
CL/consensus (7) (EPS%)
EPS growth (% YoY)
PE (x)
Dividend yield(%)
FCF yield (%)
PB (x)
ROE(%)
Net debt/equity (%)

Avg:25x

32.5
14.9
0.0
4.6
2.2
15.8
11.6

Rept
CRN
CNY
CNY
CNY
CNY
HKD
CNY
CNY
CNY
HKD
HKD
CNY
CNY
HKD
CNY
HKD
CNY
CNY
CNY
CNY
CNY
CNY
CNY

31.4
11.2
0.0
6.6
1.8
17.6
(8.0)

Last Rept.
Rev (m)

PEG
PE
PE
PE
16E 16E(x) 17E(x) 18E(x)

227,069
0.9
1.2
105,517
1.4
18,955
1.1
3,167
14,550
1.3
0.7
3,553
2,562
0.7
12,502
0.8
1.2
11,394
2,222
0.8
664
1.0
3,987
1.7
922
1.3
3,709
0.4
1,821 (3.1)
579
1.1
831
0.5
985
0.6
2,055 (2.8)
6,540
0.9
1,673
0.5
693
0.6
0.6

19
13
13
6
18
17
15
14
20
15
15
22
14
10
7

33
11

11
8
15
18
14
15.0

17

11
12
6
16
14
13
12
17
13
12
19
12
9
6
23
9
9
8
13
15
11
12.8

14
10
11

6
14
12

11
10
16

11
10
18

11
8
6
19

8
8
9
11
11
11.2

% Price
Chg (YTD)
15

3
(20)
(64)
0.0
{4)
(43)
(15)
(13)
27
(31)
(1)
(38)
(42)
(38)
(14)
(19)
0
(15)
(9)
(28}

-a
(15.5)

r -

--~-----------------~~----------------------,

%I

S4j.&
11 From: Philip Utsch, CLSA
19
.16/.
Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2016 9:00 PM
OF CIJN.IENC()t
To: Philip Utsch, CLSA
Subject: AECG: SMS- The "Ap" for Old People in Japan with ROE of 30%
1).>

AIIEA~

CI.P/ '.! 711 I sr


Fo~E/6/V BRoll.e-li!
"fo

AECG

Ill l'r/A"!E 0 '

SMS

1. There are a lot of old people in Japan and they are still aging by the day.

2,078- BUY

2. There are not enough nurses to help care for the old people.
3. Well there's an "ap for that problem" it is called SMS.
This is sort of the LinkdiN for Nurses and Hospitals in Japan. We initiate coverage today with a BUY and 44%
upside. It's hugely profitable with an ROE of 30%- not bad for a country where the risk free rate is negative.
(If you haven't noticed Linkdin just got bought for 26x EV/EBITDA and SMS trades at 20x EVIEBITDA)

SMS (2175 JP; Mkt Cap US$819m, ADTO US$6.4m)


Let me start with the chart, it is up and to the right- and in today's markets, I am finding a lot of people like that

Fina~~~;~~

Year to 31 March
Revenue (m)
Operating profit (m)
Recurring profit (m)
Net profit (m)
EPS ()
CL/consensus (3) (EPS%)
EPS growth (% YoY)
PE (x)
EV/Ebitda (x)
ROE (%)
Dividend yield (%)

17CL

18CL

19CL

24,172
27,089
30,149
3,604
5,000
7,026
4,788
6,451
8,695
3,058
4,172
5,676 75.4
102.9
140.0
109
119
132
35.8
36.4
36.0
27.6 - 2 0 . 2 ___. 14.8 ~
19.8
15.0
10.9
29.7
30.0
31.1
0.0
0.5

..f 2a I. EPiJ
Fof!ECAfl
2000

:: Ill .,c PE!e


. !/tilt FEW
'/~R..!

1500

1000

Last Price

2287.0
High on 01/28/16 2703.0
Average
1035.8
Low on 12/22/11 171.3

2011

2012

2013

Here is our front page, this explains the thesis- 44 pages.


We are the first foreign broker to initiate on this

Robert Purcell
robert. purcell@clsa .com

+81 3 4578 8037

Japan
Internet

Market cap

2015

2016

J.

Health helper
Core strength: Nurse recruiting
SMS is to nurses what M3 is to doctors: a first mover with a leading 25%
share in nurse recruiting and 60% of all the hospitals in Japan as clients. The
job-to-applicants ratio in Japan is 1.3x for all industries; for the nursing
market it is~- The internet is revolutionising job search, while Japan needs
as many as 1m more nurses/healthcare workers in the next 10 years. Its
career services business is a cash cow with a defined growth profile.

15 June 2016

Reuters
Bloomberg

2014

500

2175.T

2175 JP
GS$819-m:J

3M average daily volume


698.3m
(US$6.4m)

Productivity for home nurses: Kaipoke


Japan's ageing society is putting a huge strain on healthcare infrastructure. A
scarcity of hospital beds and of healthcare workers mean home care is often
the preferred long-term solution. Kaipoke - a software platform which raises
productivity for visiting nurses (IT and billing support) - is a second driver,
growing 60% YoY last year with a 15% OPM. Packing more functionality at
half the price, we expect margins to double over four years.

r---zol. 114~.
ANEM t$111
.snEEr

140''1

210

150

!50

History suggests the


average first day return
for IPOs was 43/o for
1940-2014, 63% for
1997-2009, and 90% in
2014

L1111e

30

CocJJ.JJ

!i>JE

IN FoR A NicE flME


AN~

60

BY

Source: CLSA, Jay Ritter-University of Florida

')(1CN1fo~

tiA~ '100 ""'\

NTT Docomo ($16B)


NTT ($15.36)
Dai-ichi Life ($11.1B)

CLSA

Japan Airlines ($8.4B)


East Japan Railway ($7.2B)
Dfirst Year

Japan Tobacco ($5.9B)

GJ First

West Japan Railway ($5.5B)

Day

Central Japan Railway ($4.4B)


Suntory Beverage ($3.8B)

Seungjoo Ro

J-Power ($3.4B}

seungjoo.ro@clsa.com
+82 2 397 8532

Jongmin Shim
+82 2 397 8468

-40%

12M forward PE
{x)
55.0

Naver

45.0

720,000 won- BUY

35.0
25.0

I ! SeE/"'1.! MA/IIA6Em8Jr HA:1 t.l!=r ,s'OMEr!f!JtiG ON


T!l /ABJ.E FoR J.//.1 I,PO~ IN VE..tro,e.{

Korea
Technology
Reuters
Bloomberg

035420.KS
035420 KS

Priced on 10 June 2016


Korea Kospi @ 2,017.6
12M hi/lo

722,000 /461,500
won

12M price target


:!::% potential

920,000 won
+28%

Shares in issue
Free float (est.)

29.7m
81.5%

Market cap

US$20,276m

3M average daily volume

62.8bn won

(US$54.0m)

Foreign s'holding 57.4%


Major shareholders

Treasury 11.6%
NPS 11.2%

15.0

Li n e u p

13lune 2016

160%

110%

60%

10%

5.0

~~~~-------------

-1----===F---..------.-----..-

Dec 11

Dec 12

Dec 13

Dec 14

Dec 15

IPO reference value of 6.4tn lower than expected

Line officially announced its initial public offering (IPO) on the Tokyo i
Stock Exchange (TSE) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) with its ~
official listing on 15 July. The reference price of 2,800 yen/share implies a -6
6.4tn won market cap. This is lower than 7-10tn won implied in Naver's a.
current share price. We believe investors should buy Naver on the dip due
to the removal of IPO uncertainties, Line's strong fundamental outlo~k -::/'
and Naver's domestic business could rerate to 13-15tn won.
\._...;""'

Financials

s:r I$

Year to 31 December
Revenue (bn won)
Net profit (bn won)
EPS (won)
CL/consensus (29) (EPS%)~
EPS growth (% YoY)
PE (x)
Dividend yield (%}
FCF yield(%)
PB (x)
ROE(%)
Net debt/equity (%}

WAY AHEAA OF CON.JEIJSUS


14A
2,757
451
15,191

15A
3,254
519
17,644

(75.2)
47.4
0.1
2.4
11.9
27.6
(14.8)

16.1
40.8
0.2
3.5
10.0
26.5
(6.4}

16CL
3,974
831
28,215
123

59.9
25.5
0.5
~ 4.6
7.4
33.4
(33.2}

17CL
4,809
1,225
41,556
136
47.3
17.3
0.9
6.5
5.5
36.4
(53.6)

18CL
5,641
1,516
51,433
142
23.81
14.0
1.4
7.9
4.2
33.8
(66.9)

l!P,~.11-~~-e-I!'.~~!!'!.C!~.!!.!"!:iS!!'S.t~!!!.c.~!.!!i_~~--(~!iti.111at~d)
6.0

/.EAIJBlJNIP IN

(bn US$)

5.0

A ~RDWIIfl~ PJMI(r

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

Naver Corp ( 035420 KS)

0.0
2015

2016

2017

2016

2019

2020

Such high engagement is evidenced by its leadership in mobile time spent in

~~~::~:.~:::.:~:~::.::.
~~
w
:
:.:~:h(~:::~~
numb:~:=:~.:::::::::::.ce..!~
pef~~u
0
0
~

2()15)_
14.0%
12.0%

...

13.2%

60

(#of messages)

70

10.0%
7.5/o

6.0%

71.5

65

5.7%

6.0%

60

4.0%

55

2.0%

74.2

73.7

75

10.4%

62.9
56.1

50
45
40

41.7

41

41.4

35
30~~--~--~~--~--~~--~--~-T--~~

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Finally domestic business is also seeing an accelerated growth trend, driven


by renewed growth in e-commerce business, mob1le d1splay ad inventory
expansion and video advertising potential over the longer term.
Domestic business growth
is accelerating

- - Naver domestic ad revenue YoY

Get in Line; buy Naver on th~ dip


Question marks aside on why management has allowed such a low initial
valuation, we continue to believe investors should buy Naver on any dip due
to the removal of IPO overhang, Line's strong earnings growth outlook and
Naver's domestic portal valuation gains to 13-lStn won highlighted in our
recently published report Teleportai-Advo/ution. We will formally review our
numbers with information from its prospectus. BUY.

0.6M

O.SM

0.4M

0.3M
,.,. Last Price
High on 03/10/14
Average
Low on 08/21/06

0.696M
0.853M
0.408M
0.136M

0.2M

0.1M

!
2006

2007

2008

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

'I

11

AN V#llER-ANAL Y..!1J
----- Original Message ----From: JOHN SEAGRIM (CLSA UK)

t,Rol/tll/t/6,

v~je-g 9111

Mlftz~EI

#MOBILE GAMING:
Today I'm betting on~ e-gaming ante:
"lt seems to me that the $88bn global gaming market is relatively under-analysed for its size and growth (projected
midterm revenue cagr of 15), and that would be even more true for the faster expanding mobile segment {30% cagr),
where Japan arguably leads the way. This is now an $8bn domestic market, and a topic addressed at our 2016 Tokyo
Forum by independent gaming authority Or Serkan Toto. He has now summarised his thoughts in the Blue Book below,
which is well worth looking through. The problem for investors is that mobile gaming is a verv crowded & competitive
space- with over 700 new titles launched daily!- so controversiai.Nintendo is the only stock of significant size.
Or Toto is bullish about Nintendo and confident they will eventually succeed in mobile gaming, though as mentioned
here before the better way to play that is via $3.3bn jv partner 2432 DeNA, which is more geared to future hit games
and also offers a similarly super-strong balance sheet.
Analyst Jay Defibaugh's preferred name would be slightly smaller 3668 COLOPL, which has more th~n doubled its sales
in the past 3 years and verv nearly doubled profits. On Jay's forecasts you're now paying 12x PER for strong double digit
earnings growth, a 9% FCF yield and a strongly net cash b/s. With AOT of $26m, it's far from illiquid." Thanks CJ

1.1/V~

TO

!}J..() lJOO/(

(Mobile)as a new platform for gaming


Gaming on mobile phones has been common since the 1990s. But the market
in 2016 isn't what it used to be in 1997 when Nokia shipped the first phone
preloaded with Snake, a simple game that let plqyers control a line which
grows in length inside a bordered arena.

Jay Defibaugh
Senior research analyst

AI..L 6U~J /?JA21N6 NoW


Hundreds of thousands of
games worth billions of
dollars

Today's smartphone games feature flashy 3D graphics, sophisticated design


and online connectivity. Players can choose between hundreds of thousands
of fast-paced action titles, complex strategy simulations, or casual puzzle
games. The global mobile gaming industry is estimated to expand to
US$37bn this year, according to market-research firm Newzoo.

Figure 1

Proj~ction

for the _global gaming marke~ through 2019

ET

AMESMA
newzoo

$91.8Bn

2015

$99.6Bn

2017

2016
'!-o<..,..o.

$106.5Bn

$112.5Bn

2018

N~v;-zoo i 02 2016 l..hK1a~~ I Glob.ll <;.,..,~ "''n~lmt ~"fJ',., ;.,.'l"""'U"'


t'lf<'N'IOO.Ct>m/.;il~~oMX'lftfAo~>nlium/

$118.6Bn

2019

new zoo

PC gaming as a niche
PCs contribute a sizable chunk to the game market worldwide, around
US$32bn in 2016, according to Newzoo.
While PC games continue to enjoy popularity on ~ global level, another reason
for the dominance of mobile in Japan is the tendency of local gamers to view
computers primarily as work machines. Most Japanese players associate the
PC with niche genres like dating simulations and unpopular Western titles,
such as MMORPGs (massively multiplayer online role-playing games) or firstperson shooters.

Japanese gamers view


computers primarily as
work machines

As a consequence, iconic computer game franchises like World of Warcraft,


Starcraft or Counterstrike are largely unknown in Japan. To this day, there are
hardly any local developers focusing on the PC platform. Based on industry
statistics ,published in the Famitsu Game White Paper, it can be estimated
that PCs contribute less than 10% to the overall game market.

Few local developers in


Japan focus on PCs

The number is a far cry from China, for example, where PC games are said to
command over half of the market, according to Newzoo .

2012-2019 CHINESE GAMES MARKET

$26.5Bn

Mobi!o~t

$27.7Bn

IS Other

$28.9Bn

$24.4Bn
$21.2Bn
$18.0Bn
$13.8Bn
$10.0Bn

2012

IMAGE

a:

'"e"'...

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

COUNTRY

POJ'UlATlON

INTERNE::T
POPULATION

TOTAL REVENUES IN US
DOLLARS

China

1,383.837,000

789,252.000

24.368,794,000

United States of
America

324,432,000

293,871,000

23,543,121,000

Japan

126.427.000

117,648,000

12,447,570,000

Germany

80,754,000

72,410,000

4,048,498,000

South Korea

50.555.000

44.591.000

4,047.335.000

United Kingdom

65,173,000

61,157,000

3,895,103,000

France

64,725,000

56.791.000

2,734,468,000

RANK

Fun on the run


Smairtphones create biggest
game market ever

{jj ANI>

WE Wo/llbER
WHY PRO!JVC,IIt/lrl

641H' /+RE !=EW 1- FA~


B~:rwGEAJ
Japanese smartphone game
industry among largest,
most mature

Mobile gaming is conquering the world. Smartphones have spawned the


biggest market for games ever, with thousands of developers serving billions
of players. Years before Apple introduced the iPhone and apps infiltrated
everyday life, Japan already had skin in the game. It was first to offer games
as services that could be played on feature phones, over the internet,
together with friends and for no initial charge - providing a blueprint for the
rest of the world. But that world is changing and so must the blueprint. The
massive disruption experienced in the Japanese console gaming market is a
warning sign for the established console and PC develor:fers in the West.
At about US$8bn tod_ay, the Japanese smartphone game industry is one of the
biggest and most mature globally. Console-game powerhouses like Nintendo
or Sony lost their dominance at home in a matter of years to names like Mixi
or GungHO, companies whose very first mobile games turned out to be
superhits that have generated billions of dollars in revenue. Millions of
Japanese . users are spending money on microtransactions inside apps. The..Q
idea of paying US$60 upfront for boxed video games is becoming obsolete. r:cJ

Industry in Japan more


competitive than ever

The industry in Japan is more competitive than ever. Growth is slowing as


consolidation begins. And as consumers become more demanding, developers
are spending million-dollar budgets on titles that regularly flop. Users stick to
their favourite games, causing permanent stagnation in the grossing charts.

Challenges abound

Even in the smartphone era, Japan's mobile-gaming industry remains a


"Galapagos", a space largely isolated from the rest of the world. Most
aevelopers focus on the home market, operating distribution platforms and
developing games with no thought of compatibility in other regions. However,
competition is increasing as foreign studios enter the market with the hope of
attracting high-spending local users. The industry is also in constant fear of
regulation of monetisation techniques in response to public criticism.

Mobile gaming now


dominates

_!aean's market for on line and console sam~---~--~-~---~~~-~" ....


1,200

(bn)

I!IIHardware

oSoftware

1,000

moBit.
rAJ{ IN&
OVE~

800
600
400
200
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Special look at Line as platform and game provider


Much like Gree and DeNA on the browser, messenger service operator Line is
doubling a5a gameamlPiatform provider on the native app side. Launched in
2011 as a bare-bones chat app by Naver Japan, the local subsidiary of Korea's
largest internet portal provider, Line went on to become a superhit. Similar
apps such as WhatsApp or Kakaotalk from Korea failed to catch on in Japan.

<@f).
L/11/

In July 2012, Line opened its gaming business, which is the biggest source of
revenue today. In order to capture as many players as possible, most of the
first wave of Line-connected games came from parent company NHN
Entertainment and were very casual in nature.

--7- But

fast forward to today, and Line is failing to maximise its potential as _a


distribution channel for mobile games. As it turned out, Line Game was and IS
overcurated. There are currently fewer than 50 titles available worldwide,
compared with the thousands of games on Korean rival Kakaotalk's platform.
Line is regularly forced to substantially purge its already limited game
catalogue. In November 2015, for example, a total of nine unsuccessful titles
were closed on a single day. At the moment, the only hit running on Line
Game is Disney Tsum Tsum, a puzzle app that has been constantly charting
high in the grossing rankings since its launch in 2014.

SEEMS
70 /lE

.Srf2CI6 6 I.. I t1l tr

e
Alliance between DeNA
and Nintendo since March
2015

Special look at Nintendo-DeNA as platform and game providers


Since its announcement in March 2015, the capital alliance between
DeNA and Nintendo has been subject to heated discussion and a wealth
of speculation.

Nintendo waited for


years before entering
mobile space

After all Nintendo, one of the world's most iconic game makers, waited for
years before entering the mobile space. According to Nintendo's late
president Satoru Iwata, he was first approached by his, counterpart at DeNA,
Isao Moriyasu, as early as June 2010.

Nintendo handles "frontend", DeNA "back end"

Nintendo handles the "front-end", providing the actual games, intellectual


property and art, for example. DeNA focuses on "back-end" tasks such as
infrastructure building, data analytics or quality assurance.

Nirite-l1Cio Co Ltd (7974 JP)


Nintendo (7974 JP)
Software and services
GICS sector
Software
GICS industry
15,355
Last price
25,010 I 14,350
12M Hi/Lo
14,000
CLSA target
Sell
CLSA rec
Analyst
Jay Defibaugh
Last model updated
26 May 2016
Mkt cap (US$m)
20,338
3M ADTO (US$m)
95.8
Free float(%)
67.2
Total stock return(%) (7.9)_

Partnership makes sense


on paper

12M forward PE

12M forward PB

(x)
100.0
90.0
80.0

(x)
2.8

70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
Feb 12

Feb 14

Feb 13

oN 31/Y.. ,~

Feb 15

/tVIrfl

pd

Feb 16

..f-IJET cA11 -c.- t..oi/V ...l;l.

2.3

/7x

1.8
1.3
0.8
Feb 12

Feb 13

,4/.t.. Of/E,I:!

Feb 14

Feb 15

Feb 16

71fE Pt.A,c

,eo

On paper, the partnership makes sense. DeNA has a long history of operating
the back-end for millions of users, a field Nintendo in which has no
experience. As all titles would be developed by Nintendo, DeNA's string of
failed releases on the native game side is irrelevant under the partnership.
l)JtA-P/"0/1./r~

Execution of partnership
disappointing so far

From the start, expectations were high. However, the execution of the
partnership has been disappointing so far. Nintendo and DeNA delayed the
launch of both the platform and first codeveloped app from 2015 to March
2016. In addition, the debut title was not starring Super Mario - it was not
even a game.

Much too early to count


out Nintendo

However, it would be much too early to count out Nintendo, for a whole range
of reasons. It is not so much about Nintendo's lP catalogue, which is arguably
the richest of any developer and includes brands such as Super Mario,
Pokempn, Zelda or Donkey Kong. The portfolio also covers essentially all
genres, from action to RPGs.

Portable pioneer Nintendo ~ The company's craftsmanship, creativity and openness to innovation need to
needed in mobile-gaming
transfer to the mobile gaming arena. Nintendo has not invented mobile but
arena
undoubtedly is the one company that popularised portable gaming worldwide.

The Game & Watch handhelds Nintendo started producing in 1980 were
followed by such iconic devices as the Game Boy or the DS series.

DeNA Co Ltd (2432JP)


DeNA (2432 JP)
GICS sector
Software and services
GICS industry
Internet software
Last price
2,280
12M Hi/Lo
2,534/ 1,583
CLSA target
2,900
CLSA rec
Buy
Analyst
Jay Defibaugh
Last model updated
08 Jun 2016
Mkt cap (US$m)
3,215
3M ADTO (US$m)
37.4
Free float(%)
73.3
ToJ;al stock return (%) ?B.O

12M forward PE

12M forward PB

(x)
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0

(x)
7.0
6.0
5.0

+------------:-l'---.!..1::----,

15.0
10.0
5.0

}-""".....,.,i=_;::_=--------

Jun 11

Jun 12

Jun 13

Jun 14

Jun 15

4.0 t - - - . Y r - - . a ; - - - - - - - - 3.0
2.0
1.0 -1---------_..:J.o-""""-___:;::~
0.0 -1----.--....-----.----r--Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15
Jun 11

ef>.s, ro~CA.(r 1-/-1-16# ,FC~1'dd


or >~ "/. ,. NT CAfl/., Rvr B-7. ~o
2t>l- f>R 1 ptH/rJV:

fAY'S FAVDIIR ITE 6AMIAI6 NAME


Colopllnc (3668 JP) .,_..)
12M forward PE

Colopl (3668 JP)

GICS sector
GICS industry
Last price
12M Hi/Lo
CLSA target
CLSA rec
Analyst
Last model updated
Mkt cap (US$ m)
3M ADTO (US$m)
Free float ( 0/o)
Total stock return (Ofo)

Software and services


Software
2,450
2,718 I 1,724
3,400
Buy
Jay Defibaugh
28 Apr 2016
2,892
23.1
36.6
39.9

12M forward PB

(x)
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0 t---tt---f-....._-'h----t---tt------15.0
10.0

'1---F------------E:DII:.......~--

. (x)
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0

.J---t-~~A----1~-----

5.0 ~-------------lL--.0.0
Dec 12
Dec 14
Dec 13
Dec 15

+----....----------....-

..-=----....---.....------Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15

5.0
Dec 12

.~!~l!~.:.~Y,:~l-~~-~"~".Q.~--~~9!. .!.!!~-~!~.lJ..~~~~!.... ~'


60

PER FY3/18CL (x)

/2"1 PER.
50

J)of.J8t..E DI6Ji EPS(j

''f"/. FcFgi-<-/d
' #e-f CPJt..

40
OLC

30

+ Gree
HE

20

At.SO
+

li!<J~

+Konami

Sega Sammy

GungHo

10

DeN A

.HIS

OP Cagr (FY3/16-FY3/18CL}
-20/o

CLSA
lay Defibaugh
jay .defibaugh@clsa .corn
+81 3 4578 8040

13 June 2016

Consumer

10/o

20/o

40/o

30/o

Sguare Enix
3,450- BUY

Playing key roles

::r
m

:I
Final Fantasy, Deus Ex underlie bright outlook
ea
As noted in our CLSA U Blue Book Fun on the run, Square Enix offers an tD
attractive balance of blockbuster console games and popular mobile-app 3"
game~. Both businesses benefit from Square Enix's structural advantage i

9684.T
9684 JP

of owning two of the most popular role-playing franchises, Final Fantasy ~


and Dragon Quest. We introduce our quarterly forecasts with this report. "a
In 2QFY3/17, the long-awaited Final Fantasy XV (30 September) and ~
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided (23 August) are slated for release. We lift our tD
target for Square Enix from 3,900 to 4,600 and remain BUYers.

~~~1:,':/S!!~~~~"~!..!!!~~r.:i~-~- -.--- ..........................,. . ._. . . . .


Peers

QOJo

.a

Japan
Reuters
Bloomberg

-10/o

Activision (ATVI.OQ)
Capcom (9697.T)
DeNA {2432.T}
Electronic Arts {EA.OQ)
Gree (3632.T}
Konami (9766.T}
Microsoft (MSFT.OQ)
Namco Bandai (7832.T}
Nexon (3659.T}
Nintendo (7974.T)
Sega Sammy (6460.T)
Sony (6758.T}
Square Enix (9684.T}
Take-Two (TTWO.OQ}

PE
(x)
20.8
14.8
29.9
21.0
54.7
19.7
15.3
13.1
116.9
26.4
21.2
31.0

PB
(x)
3.1
1.8
1.8
5.4
1.6
2.6
5.4
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.0
1.0
2.5
6.0

Divyld
(O/o)
0.6
1.5
0.8
0.0
1.6
0.6
2.4
2.0
0.6
0.9
3.0
0.8
1.4
0.0

ROE
(Ofo)
15.5
12.5
29.3

11.8
13.5

27.1

Gearing
( 0/o)
22.1
(26. 7)
(38.3)
(77.0)
(82.2)
(33.3)
37.1
(2.5)
(63.1)
(49.1}
(29.4)
(29.5)
(63.7)
13.2

(;,1'/TI#6
01'

g/6

c-$Pof2-r~

Ill PI.AYER IN 2oiS Tool( HoME


Esports possible new
engine for growth

Us/zm f~:,~':J::fWE~.~J

Esports
The game industry in Japan and elsewhere is betting on a relatively new
phenomenon as a possible new engine for growth. Esports, a form of sports
where professional garners play video games in competition with others, is an
ecosystem by itself.

It includes elements such as:

o Game developers,
~--

o Teams consisting of professional players,


o National and international leagues,
o Organisers of tournaments,
o Platforms (to broadcast matches online) and
o Sponsors.

Poised to grow to
US$1.1bn in 2019

Competitive gaming as its own market is likely to grow from US$325m


2015 to US$1.1bn in 2019 worldwide, according to Newzoo.
,p

.I

The 10 highest-paid professional garners in the world


LUCY ENGLAND TECH

lt may sound too good to be true, but people actually do play video games for a living. And they make an absolute killing.

e-Sports Earnings has ranked the 100 players with the highest overall earnings from competitive gaming. Over 100 garners
have earned more than $250,000 in prize money alone, without counting the sponsorship deals and income that many of
these players receive from streaming their practice games on services like Twitch.
But they pale in comparison to the top 10 players, who have earned more than $10 million for their gaming prowess alone.
10. Zhang "Mu" Pang- $1,193,811.11 from 37 tournaments -China's Zhang Mu Pang plays Valve's "Data 2," which
started out as a battle arena "Wi:ucraft" mod called "Defense of the Ancients." He also used to play "DatA: Allstars."
9. Wang 'SanSheng' Zhaohui- $1,205,274.33 from 45 tournaments- Zhaohui is another Chinese "Data 2" player who
used to play "DotA: Allstars." He was much more successful last year, bringing in $1,112,280.99 to this year's $377,286 in
winnings.
8. Jiao 'Banana' Wang- $1,211,250.16 from 42 tournaments- Operating under the Player ID "Banana," China's Jiao
only made around $25,000 from five tournaments in 2015 so far, but won $1,112,280 last year. He plays "Data 2," and used
to play "DotA: Allstars."
7. Chen 'Hao' Zhihao- $1,562,946.23 from 47 tournaments- China's Chen used to be a "DatA: Allstars" player, and
now plays Data 2 for team Newbee. According to his bio, he has been nicknamed General Hao by the Chinese community,
is known to be one of the most aggressive players in the scene.
6. Sumail Hassan- $1,640,777.34 from 8 tournaments - Hassan is a Pakistani "Data 2" player, and only started playing
professionally this year at just 15. Now 16, he's already won three tournaments.
5. Zhang "xioa8" Ning - $1 ,662,202. 73 from 44 tournaments - Ning captains team Newbee, which won the "Data 2" Tl4
Grand Finals in Seattle last year. His team includes Zhang "Mu" Pang, Wang "SanSheng" Zhaohui, Jiao "Banana" Wang
and Chen "Hao" Zhihao.
4. Clinton "Fear" Loomis- $1,735,983.84 from 44 tournaments- American gamer Loomis plays "Data 2" on the
Evil Geniuses team, and made $1,326,932.14 from this year's The International -the biggest "Data 2" tournament in the
world.
3. Kurtis "Aui_2000" Ling- $1,881,147.04 from 47 tournaments- Ling is a Canadian "Data 2" player. At just 22, he's
the second youngest in e-Sports earning's top ten.
2. Peter "ppd" Dager- $1 ,961,183.29 from 33 tournaments.
1. Saahil "UNIVeRsE" Arora - $1 ,964,038.64 from 39 tournaments - Arora is an American "Data 2" player who came
first with Loomis and the Evil Geniuses this year in The International 2015. He took home a whopping $1,326,932.14 from

the tournament.

AN6 ~ rEAM /JRNI/116lj

-------------------------------,

The 10 highest earning eSports teams of 2015


Make no mistake, 2015 ~as a record year for eSports in almost every aspect. Viewing figure records have been
smashed on multiple occasions, investment in teams has hit an all-time high and perhaps most importantly
prize pools have skyrocketed. Again.
In August, the International 5 became the biggest eSports prize pool in history with $18,429,613 to divvy up,
most pooled from crowdfunding. The Dota Asia Championships and the Frankfurt Major both gave away
around $3 million and Smite's World Championships became the biggest ever non-Dota 2 event with
$2,612,259.00 in prize money. Of course somebody has to win all this money, so let's take a look at which
organisations have performed the most in 2015, according to esportsearnings.com.

10. Cloud9- $1,461,315.12


9. SK Telecom T1- $1,531,484.02
8. EHOME - $1,565,688.11
7. COGnitive Gaming- $1,768,958.39
6. Virtus.Pro- $2,131,185.40
5. Team Secret - $2,231,114.09
4. Vici Gaming- $2,581,954.91
3. LGD Gaming $3,045,517.23
2. CDEC Gaming - $3,229,600.78
1. Evil Geniuses - $8,952,675.05
"We're very worried that John's homework has
/WJRE rHlVI rHE
started to interfere with his computer gaming."
SAJ..Ail.1 CA~ tJF A /lfl.tT!!/IJ..IA-1<1 R.VJ..EJ Ru;rPA.t.J.. "TEA/11

<>

Here's the crazy training schedule of young guys


who make a huge salary playing video games
HARruSONJACOBSTECH

WHAT fJ

(cMP)

t..IF rJ-/QI/6ll

Ruiz's two Korean teammates, Chae "Piglet" Gwan-jin and Kim "Fenix" Jae-hun, are notorious for pushing the
physical boundaries for how much a person can practice. They often sleep only four hours a night and practice
between 12 and 14 hours per day.
Their regimen is more extreme than most North American players, but it's common for those from Korea, the
epicenter of competitive gaming.
For a time, this past season, the Korean players' schedule worried other players on the team, who felt their intense
schedule was making them less effective.
"[Chae and Kim] don't stop practicing. They are crazy like that," says Team Liquid teammate Alex "Xpecial" Chu, a
22-year-old California native who has played in the pro leagues for four years.
He says his Korean colleagues practice "25 hours a day," but the two Korean teammates have their reasons for
trying to practice harder than everybody else.
"If someone [in the US] plays 30 games a week- that's just a random number- a Korean would play 70-80
games. Take that difference over a week, over a month, over years, and that's going to be a huge difference," Chae
told Business Insider, through a translator.

--~-

~~--~~-

......

-~~~~-----------------------------

Financial Crazies
From:

Sent:

Philip Utsch, CLSA


Thursday, June 16, 2016 2:04AM

AECG:
I could not make this up if I tried ..... truth is stranger than fiction ..... .
Chinese borrowers told to post nude photos as collateral
2016-06-15 17:44:14.546 GMT
By Lucy Hornby in Beijing
(Financial Times) -- Chinese loan sharks are demanding nude photos as collateral from female
borrowers which can be used for blackmail if they fall behind on their repayments.
The aggressive tactics are an example of the drastic debt recovery measures that are being
employed in the slowing Chinese economy.
The democratisation of finance in China via peer-to-peer lenders and the vast shadow banking
system, with interest rates sometimes topping 30 per cent, have proved an inflammatory mix
and fuelled a surge in souring loans.
Female college students in the southern province of Guangdong were told to hand over naked
photos of themselves holding their ID cards, with lenders threatening to make them public if
they failed to repay their microloans, according to the Nandu Daily, the local newspaper.
~7rAM/1'Jr.E

From: Nicole Wong,CLSA

Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2016 2:08 PM


Subject: Gimmick. Strictly gimmick. SHKP (16HK, BUY)'s 120% mortgage offer.

oF

DE$PBIA1E
:#,2.

The market is unsettled by SHKP's offer of a 120% mortgage for its Yuen Long project, Park YOHO. Are Hong
Kong developers having to take on a huge amount of potential non-performing loan in order to shift just some
inventory?
The answer is no. This is gimmick. Strictly gimmick. I will explain the key tricks of the mortgage offer.
First, to get the 120% mortgage, you need to be someone who has an existing property that is worth no less
than 60% of the value of the Park YOHO unit you plan to buy. So what SHKP is offering is effectively, a chance
to remortgage. But who would want to remortgage their first property in this sort of market, where
return on cash is so low? The 120/o mortgage is designed to advertise!
Second, SHKP also offers a 90% LTV ratio mortgage but only for "designated customers". The small prints
explain "designated customers": "customers who are registered with relevant professional bodies in Hong
Kong as architect, accountant, surveyor, veterinarian, dentist, doctor, registered nurse, actuary,
lawyer, Chartered Financial Analyst, airline pilot, staff of Hospital Authority of Hong Kong (with salary
at Hospital Authority General Pay Scale Point 34 (33A) or above) or civil servants of the government of HKSAR
(with salary at Civil Services Master Pay Scale Point 34 (33A) or above)."
People with CFA like people in our industry will qualify but the next question is, how many will actually be
interested? below is a map showing where the project is. I am afraid middle-of-no-where may be a pretty
precise description of the project, being 3km from both side of the nearest train station. And reportedly,
because of the "wilderness" surrounding it, the area has one of the highest "mosquito count" of Hong
Kong. The Kam Tin River in front, which is a little polluted, does not really help.
So it is understandable why the developer feel this is a project that needs some waves to get sailing.

su/lROUNbU

ey

( CIUI'IBO.!JIA,L.AOJ,

20
15

PIYAH~ V/ Er)

(%)

Thai strategy

CLSA

D~PISTE mitTS

EI Local

currency

Market outlook

oUS$ basis

rHE ENIJ o,:our,.EitFOitiMf!fltleE

10
5
0

roR

(5)
(10)
(15)
(20)
.!:

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11/15 YEA/l.

.!!:!

10

t=

Unsustainable outperformance
The SET forward PE multiple has rerated to 13.6x this year, above its fiveyear average of lli While the outperformanCeTsimpressive, we believe it is
unsustainable. Continued earnings downgrades, resumed US rate-hike
expectations and richer multiples than Asian peers point to volatility and
sideways performance until the public-infrastructure-project bidding and
private-sector activities gain momentum.

Head of Thailand Research


suchart.techaposai@clsa.com
+66 2 257 4632

Pamika Likitittiraks
+66 2 257 4635

S t<eY P!(aBJ..Ehi.S

Imminent downside

Suchart Techaposai

As powerful tailwinds subside, near-term downside appears unavoidable. The


main problems are continued export weakness, a muted private response to
fiscal-stimulus measures, delays in large public-infrastructure-project bidding,
challenging farm income and ineffective monetary policy.

Brighter long-term outlook

2.ol? EI..EC...17 ot>J

13 June 2016

Despite the short-term difficulties, long-term growth potential remains


promising. A positive referendum result could allow the government to put
the draft charter to work, leading to a general election next year. Continued
commitment to public infrastructure spending to offset weak private demand,
and tax incentives to promote private-investment could be added boosters.

Thailand
Market Strategy

Eclectic approach
We maintain our year-end SET target at 1,550 (1.84x, the five-year historical
average forward PB) but expect imminent market volatility. For stockpicking,
we adopt an eclectic approach, picking a cheap beta bank, Kasikornbank;
select consumer names CP All and MC; a Chinese tourism play, Asia Airways;
and public infra bidders Siam Cement and Unique E&C. We would SELL
commodities and names with weak business models: Banpu, PTTEP, Robinson
Department Store and Thai Airways.
1600

S.Er !#.6Cf. .r"I/VcE 199~;,.


.S;-/i_).. .AI /.$VE"i..J' FR~~
. 2o .Y.EA!U ~ A6'.o .

1200

1000

800

600

400

Last Price
High on 01/03/94
Average
Low on 09/14/98
1990-1994

1419.25
1682.85
842.00
211.34
1995-1999

200

2000-2004

2005-2009

2010-2014

~----~

Strategy's top picks


Strategic BUYs are KBank,
CP All, MC, Asia Aviation,
Siam Cement and Unique

We apply the Z-score approach to our strategy theme: consumer, Chinese


tourists and public-infrastructure bidding. Our BUY list includes KBank, CP All,
MC Group, Asia Aviation, Siam Cement and Unique E&C.
Our SELL list focuses on commodity-related names and those with weak
business models that have had a good share-price rally this year, namely:
Banpu, PTTEP, Robinson Department Store and Thai Airways.

Kasikornbank (KBANK TB -Target Bt215 - TSR 29% - BUY)


KBank is our beta play

We maintain KBank as a top pick because Thai banks are one of the cycle's
cheapest sectors in this cycle based on the Z-score screen. It is trading
around -l.sd to its historical average PB, reflecting that the NPL situation has
been largely priced in. Its fee income is also solid as an earnings source,
while its loan business remains challenging.

12M forward PE
(x)
15.0
14.0
13.0
12.0

t----,..----f--4ir---

11.0
10.0
9.0 .r-;~__:_---f~"-------_.!._~
8.0
7.0 +----.---...-----.---.....----.
Jun 11
Jun 12
Jun 13
Jun 14
Jun 15
Jun 16

{JJ

12M forward PB

Asset quality (NPLs as % of loans)

;~~

<%>

2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8

,co,ecCAir ro

4.0

trYIP~ovE

3.5

tt----.,("-=-JI-1.---7:---:iiA----

3.0

1.6 1----+-----11""-----~~1.4
1.2
1.0 +----...--......----.---...-----.
Jun 11
Jun 12
Jun 13
Jun 14
Jun 15
Jun 16

2.5
2.0
14A

15A

16CL

17CL

18CL

CP All (CPALL TB - Target Bt60 - TSR 26% - BUY)


CP All is the strongest
franchised chain grocery
operator in Thailand

AN.I> rHE

Our top consumer name based on its strong franchise and dominant new
outlet rollouts and plans. CP All's same-store-sales (SSS) growth has
gradually improved, as has its gross margin, despite the weak economy.
Interest expense will start declining from this year thanks to debt repayment.

CoNSUME~ Sro~ IN AliA EX-.rA/>A/11 0/'1 ENrERP~I~ VAt.VE


Largest Asia ex-Japan Consumer stock Enterprise Values

6 11.. t..tl/e6EST

Bloomberg
ticker

ITC IB
HMSP 1J
HUVR IB
UNVR IJ
090430 KS
CPALL TB
051900 KS
288 HK
APNT IS
023530 KS

Company Name

Country

ITC
HM Sampoerna
Hindustan Unilever
Unileverindo
Amorepacific
CPAII
LG H&H
WH Group
Asian Paints
Lotte Shopping

India
Indonesia
India
Indonesia
Korea
Thailand
Korea
China
India
Korea

CLSA Sector

Mkt Cap
(USDm)

Core EPS
growth
2016

42,260
33,465
28,271
24,678
21,051
12,295
14,237
11,286
14,215
5,999

Consumer
Consumer
Consumer
Consumer
Consumer
Consumer
Consumer
Consumer
Consumer
Consumer

P/E
(Core)
2016

2.3
11.6
5.1
13.0
34.3
13.0
29.0
5.5
25.1
nm

28.7
38.5
46.4
49.6
37.5
28.0
30.1
13.3
53.5
14.9

P/8
2016

Dividend
yield
2016

8.6
13.4
47.1
58.7
6.9
9.7
6.7
1.8
17.0
0.4

2.4
2.3
1.8
1.8
0.4
1.8
0.6
2.3
0.8
0.9

Gearing
2016

(51.5)
(17.0)
(130.0)
0.6
(20.1)
298.8
21.8
27.7
(36.8)
57.8

Ent
Value
2016
39,048
32,990
27,406
24,680
23,818
16,582
15,778
14,536
13,853
13,104

MC Group (MC TB- Target Bt17.6 - TSR 48% - BUY)


MC is a cheap way
to play an upcountry
spending recovery

Key product Me jeans has nearly a 40% market share of Thailand's branded
jeans market. MC has enjoyed a SSS growth recovery, selling to its own
outlets and has started slashing inventory to more conservative levels. It is
trading at 10.3x 17CL PE, providing inexpensive exposure to an upcountry
spending recovery.

Financials
""---------"
Year to 31 December
Revenue (Btm)
Net profit (Btm)
EPS (Bt)
CL/consensus (7) (EPS%)
EPS growth (% YoY)
PE (X)
Dividend yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
PB (x)
ROE(%)
Net debt/equity (%)

14A
3,470
712
0.9

15A
3,895
732
0.9

(3.0)
13.9
6.5
3.1
2.6
19.2
(39.2)

2.9
13.6
6.0
(2.3)
2.5
18.8
(17.6)

16CL
4,360
844
1.1
108
15.3

e1.8
6.4
9.5
2.3
20.6
(24.2)

17CL
4,859
963
1.2
110
14.2
10.3
6.3
7.3
2.1
21.6
(24.5)

18CL
5,399
1,102
1.4
112

14.b
9.0
6.7
6.5
1.9
22.3
(21.9)

/) .t'A1Att. -CA~

utJ
~

Wl'f'N t;.o/. IYII<r


Cf/1/~J: IN a=>~J
;f~Afl/~ ( Nt>U/.../VIIIr rrlAr _)
1? )-/or !IV rilE r;r!Opi?S .::_)

Wrrll .A

6%

YIEJ-Il
fltv!J IIET t:MII

Siam Cement (SCC TB- Target Bt585- TSR 25% -BUY)


Siam Cement has done well in its petrochemical business with falling oil
prices and resilient Asian petrochemical demand having driven ethylene
spreads to a cycle high. Next we expect Siam Cement to catch up on its
cement sales when infrastructure projects begin. It is also a long-term Asean
infrastructure play, given its presence in the region.

Unique E&C (UNIQ TB -Target Bt22.50 - TSR 34% - BUY)


As one of the top-four Thai contractors with expertise in large transport
infrastructure projects, Unique E&C is ready to benefit from related ongoing
project bidding over the coming years.

/YORE
1~
High-Conviction BUV.

Asia Aviation (AAV TB- Target Bt7.40 - TSR 25% - BUY)


We view Asia Aviation as an inexpensive play on sustained Chinese tourist
growth, instead of richly valued Airports of Thailand or other listed hotel
names that operate mainly in luxury-hotel segment.
'lf~~-':J,ii!l_ti~I'!!>U!"'_!"'ii!l!}'__c:t_f_()~!,!!!;'_~~~g,'V:~_i_~-~!!i-Companies

Stock

Asia Aviation

AAVTB

CPAII

CPALL TB

Kasikornbank

KBANKTB

' l MC Group

~ Siam Cement
Unique E&C
Average

Price Target
(Bt)
(Bt)

MCTB
SCCTB
UNIQ TB

Banpu

BANPU TB

PTTEP

PTTEPTB

Robinson Dept Store


Thai Airways

ROBINS TB
THAI TB

....

5.9
48.5
170.5
12.4
478.0
17.0

7.4
60.0
215.0
17.6
585.0
22.5

12.0
84.0
60.5
16.9

10.2
57.0
48.0
8.0

Rec

Mcap
+I(%) (US$bn)

25.4
23.7
26.1
41.9
22.4
32.4

0.8
12.4
11.6
0.3
16.3
0.5

SELL {15.0)

1.4
9.4
1.9
1.1

BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY

SELL (32.1)
SELL (20.7}
SELL (52.7}

Average

EPS growth(%)

PE (x)
16CL

17CL

16CL

11.4
22.9
8.6
10.3
12.3
15.2
13.4
58.2
32.9
24.2
13.8
23.6

12.4
28.2
10.9
11.8
11.7
19.8
15.8
115.0
na

27.7
14.7
21.2

113.5
13.0
{5.4}
15.3
8.3
30.5
29.2
na
na

12.5
na
12.5

16CL

17CL Divyld
(%)
9.4
0.0
1.8
23.0
26.4
2.6

6.4
3.5
1.5
2.6
2.6
0.4
1.8
0.0
0.7

14.2
(4.8}
30.0
16.4
97.7
0.0
14.6
6.4
7.0

ROE
(%)
10.9
37.7

12.5
20.6
22.2
14.4
19.7
0.8
(1.2}
17.2
7.4

7.8

PB
(x)

1.3
9.7
1.3
2.3
2.4
2.7
3.3
1.0
0.9
4.6
1.0
2.1

Banpu (BANPU TB- Target Bt10.20 - TSR -12% - SELL)


Banpu has suffered from falling coal prices over the past year and recently
raised capital to invest in a US shale-gas project and other power business
instead of paying down debts. It is still exposed to high debt and would suffer
if the coal price corrects again along with other commodities if the US-dollar
resumes its appreciation with the US policy-rate hike.

Add Banpu to SELLs


expecting coal price to
reverse recent recovery

~EI.I.S]

PTTEP (PTTEP TB- Target Bt57- TSR -31%- SELL)


PTTEP will ~in the near term reversing the recent rally if oil prices drop
following the June Opec meeting, as there is no progress on production
control. Also it still faces long-term challenge on reserves and the changing
regulatory regime in Thailand's O&G exploration and production.

- ,A bO O.b I)J:AL

OF SIIFFE./VN6

Robinson DS (ROBINS TB- Target Bt48- TSR -19%- SELL)

T/II.S 6ftou P

~-~~ THE g

---oiLfii6#!T

~IN6 !#' c~A~

While seeing its business recover, Robinson Department Store has enjoyed an
impressive 35% YTD share-price rally, thanks partly to inclusion in the MSCI
Thailand. However, the format is facing a fragile near-term upcountry income
recovery and long-term e-commerce threat.

Thai Airways (THAI TB - Target Bt8 - TSR -53% - SELL)


Thai Airways will enjoy its first profit this year after three consecutive years of
losses. However, the share price has nearly doubled year-to-date, ignoring its
unsustainably high net-debt-to-equity of 4x and a possible capital call.

VNivE~E
Bloomberg
ticker

1848 HK
SYDAU
ADANI IB
TBIG IJ
ASTRO MK
DMPL PM
MCP PM
@THAI TB

Company Name

Calc
Sydney Airport
Adani Power
Tower Bersama
Astro
Del Monte Pacific
Melco Phils
Thai Airways

Country

China
Australia
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Philippines
Thailand

CLSA Sector

Financial Services
Transport
Power
Telecoms
Media
Consumer
Hotels & Leisure
Transport

Mkt Cap
(USDm)

610
11,668
1,479
2,390
3,625
490
304
1,071

Core EPS
growth

P/E
(Core)

P/B

Dividend
yield

FCF
yield

Gearing

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

2016

49.2
5.6
nm
17.0
18.4
26.3
nm
nm

8.0
53.3
(14.0)
20.4
24.0
6.2
(4.2)
15.0

1.8
16.3
1.6
10.8
-.24.5
1.0
4.0
1.1

4.4
4.2
0.0
0.4
4.2
4.9
0.0
0.0

(83.9)
2.4
(49.7)
(1.1)
8.6
(12.1)
60.4
18.3

902.9
837.2
754.0
655.4
618.4
493.9
469.1
466.0

"The only reason I made a commercial for American Express was to pay for my American Express bill."
Peter Ustinov.
"More and more these days I find myself pondering how to reconcile my net income with my gross habits."
John Nelson.
"Gentlemen prefer bonds." Andrew Mellon.
"I told the Inland Revenue I didn't owe them a penny because I lived near the seaside." Ken Dodd.
"Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination." Oscar Wilde
"Every morning I get up and look through the Forbes list of the richest people in America. If I'm not there,
I go to work." Robert Orben.
"Money is something you have to make in case you don't die." Max Asnas.
"Part of the $10 million I spent on gambling, part on booze and part on women. The rest I spent foolishly."
George Raft.
''All I ask is the chance to prove that money can't make me happy." Spike Milligan
"When you've got them by their wallets, their hearts and minds will follow." Fern Naito.
"Money can't buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery." Spike Milligan .
"My formula for success is rise early, work late and strike oil." JP Getty.
"Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Alien
"I have never been in a situation where having money made it worse." Clinton Jones.

~ ""~

1'0~
.aA f

r~:i

f\.-1

[>~-7

2016 CLSA Limited, CLSA Americas, LLC ("CLSA Americas") and/or Credit Agricole Securities Taiwan Co., Ltd. ("CA Taiwan")
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-----------------------------------------------------------