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The Costly Greek Lignite

And
The Fossil Fuels Outlook
Dr Marios Leonardos
Public Power Corporation, Greece

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Greek lignite deposits characteristics

! Relatively small deposits separated by faults


! Deep deposits
! Extremely low LQV
! High stripping ratio
! Zebra type lignite
! Presence of hard layers in the overburden (blasting required)

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

European Lignites
Stripping ratio (t/m3) LQV (kJ/Kg)

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Lignite Cost Benchmarking

Mt/y

Lignite
Cost
/t

Stripping
Ratio
t/m

Excavation
Cost
/m

Fuel Cost
/Gcal

Mini Maritsa Iztok/BG

33

9,8

4,0

2,06

6,3

Kolubara, Serbia

30

13,3

2,2

3,83

7,0

Freedom, North Dakota USA

15

13,0

5,2

2,20

3,5

Belchatow, Poland (OPEX)

40

9,6

2,6

2,92

6,4

Schleenhain Mine / Germany

11

12,0

3,0

3,00

4,6

MIBRAG (all mines- OPEX)

19,6

10,0

4,0

2,05

3,8

Rovinari / Romania

6,3

14,8

5,3

2,44

9,2

Visonta/Bkkabany /
Hungary

8,15

15,0

6,9

1,96

8,8

Greek Lignite Mines

48

15,3

4,8

2,70

12,9

Production
Mine

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Lignite Cost Benchmarking

Excavation Cost
/m

Marios Leonardos

Stripping Ratio
t/m

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Lignite Cost as Fuel


/Gcal

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Power Balance TWh


Greek Interconnected System

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Greek Lignite Mines


Stripping Ratio m/t

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Greek Lignite - Fuel Cost


/Gcal

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Electricity generation
Fuel Cost Comparison
Ngas

Hard Coal

PPC
Lignite

2016

2016

2015

PTOL V

PTOL V

Bulgaria

E/Gcal Th

15,2

8,0

14,7

14,7

12,0

6,3

E/MWh Th

17,7

6,9

12,6

12,6

10,3

5,4

Efficiency Factor %

56,0

46,0

32,6

46,0

46,0

40,0

E/MWh el

31,6

15,0

38,8

27,5

22,4

13,5

Marios Leonardos

PPC
Lignite

PPC
Lignite

Maritsa

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016


, ... ,
.
,
, . .

,
,
n

.
, ,
, ,
,
.

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

GREEK LIGNITES AND EU POLICIES


LIGNITEPRODUCTION(Mt/year)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950

Marios Leonardos

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

2010

2020

Athens, 17/6/2016

Ptolemais basin mining area consisted of several deposits


("Fields"),
scheduled to be mined according to Stripping Ratio, Lignite Quality, Size, Position and
Production Requirements

We now exploit the LAST three deposits


and PPC Mines are seeking a complete deposit
exploitation.Reasons:
Obligation from mining concession
Lignite cost
Environment

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Mining cost is minimum at the end of a lignite field mining


operation

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Significant
environmental
impact for
Ptolemais basin
region in case the
planned sequence
of the mining fields
will not be
completed
smoothly.
The ground surface
will not be restored
to a usable form.
The Company (or
the country) will
pay an unbearable
cost to correct the
situation .
Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

TPP
New Unit
PTOL5

Marios Leonardos

COMMI- DECOMMI- OPERATION


SSION
SSION
YEARS
2019

2061

45

Opt out (17500h)


KARDIA1
1975
KARDIA2
1975
KARDIA3
1980
KARDIA4
1981

2018
2018
2019
2019

43
43
39
38

Transitional national plan


AGIOS DEM1 1984
2029
AGIOS DEM2 1984
2029
AGIOS DEM3 1985
2030
AGIOS DEM4 1986
2031
AGIOS DEM5 1997
2042

45
45
45
45
45

Opt out (17500h)


AMYNT1
1987
AMYNT2
1987

31
31

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

2018
2018

Athens, 17/6/2016

Depletion of Lignite Deposits in Ptolemais


and Amyntaion Basins
Reserves (Mt) 2014 2020 2061
PTOLEMAIS
AMYNTAION

788
83

621
60

87
60

1000
900
800
700
600

Mt

500

PTOLEMAIS

AMYNTAION

400
300
200
100
0
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Problems from the transitional national plan


!
!

Cost of investments for TPPs upgrade (170 M )


TPPs increased operating costs

Other problems from early decommission of Kardia and


Amyntaion TPP (March / 2018)
!
!
!
!
!

Power 1800 MW suddenly lost from the system


Gap in electricity production (PTOL5 to be ready 2019 - 20)
Decommission before 45 years
District heating in Amyntaion area lost
Gap in district heating Ptolemais city

Solution
Increase of operating hours from 17500 to 32000.

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Fossil Fuels
Future

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Paris Agreement
A legally binding, universal agreement
189 nationally determined contributions
(NDCs)
Ambitious long-term goals
Dynamic 5-year ambition cycle
Enhanced transparency and accountability
Greater emphasis on adaptation
Support for poor and vulnerable countries

Marios Leonardos

Climate

6th International ForumAction


Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Coal and gas prices to stay low.


Wind and solar costs fall sharply .

Fossil fuel power attracts $2.1 trillion . Investment in coal and gas generation will
continue, predominantly in emerging economies. Some $1.2 trillion will go into new
coal-burning capacity, and $892 billion into new gas-fired plants.

But renewables take lion's share . Some $7.8 trillion will be invested in green

power.
On top of the $7.8 trillion, the world would need to invest another $5.3 trillion in
zero-carbon power by 2040 to prevent CO2 in the atmosphere rising above 450 ppm.

Electric car boom supports electricity demand .

Small-scale battery storage, a $250 billion market .

China coal-fired generation will follow weaker trend

than previously

projected.

That makes India the key to the future global emissions trend . Its
electricity demand is forecast to grow 3.8 times between 2016 and 2040. Despite investing
$611 billion in renewables in the next 24 years, and $115 billion in nuclear, it will
continue to rely heavily on coal power stations to meet rising demand.

Renewables to dominate in Europe , to overtake gas in the US. Wind, solar, hydro
and other renewable energy plants will generate 70% of Europe's power in 2040. In the US,
their share will jump from 14% in 2015 to 44% in 2040, as that from gas slips from 33% to
31%.

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Annual electricity output by the major generating technologies,


2016-40, thousand TWh

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance NEO 2016


Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

From the fossil fuels surplus we can infer that low prices will
stay for the next decade
Nuclear energy returns with new technologies, safer and
cheaper

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Fission reactor. Proven, affordable, safe and clean


Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016

Thank you

Marios Leonardos

6th International Forum Mineral Resources in Greece

Athens, 17/6/2016