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Principles of Environmental Management - Dr Banda Seneviratne (2007)

Principles of Environmental Management - Dr Banda Seneviratne (2007)

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Published by: Senaviratna on May 27, 2010
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10/23/2013

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Once the risk is identified in any environment (here after
environment is used in the meaning of natural, societal and
business environment) the first step is to identify the potential
adverse effects of the risks. Identify potential adverse effects of
risks. This process requires the use of mathematical and statistical
models to calculate exact placement and time of risk. Risk levels
can be easily calculated for all the hazards and disasters except for
earthquakes, with the use of modern knowledge of risk analysis
and disaster management.

Identification of potential adverse effects of risks has to be
conducted by the scientists involved in risk studies in the
respective fields. The steps in this exercise are to collect
Morphological information
Process information of the event

Table 5.2 Some morphological and process characteristics of risk

Event

Morphology

Process

Flood

Deforestation

/
construction on flood
plain/ poor drainage on
flood plain/

Poor environmental
planning/ lack of
legislative

support/
lack of insurance

49

support

Landslide

Deforestation

/
construction on steep
slope, unstable ground,
poor road design

Application

of

principles

of

environmental control

Tornado

Air mass collision/
growth

of

deep

Cumulonimbus

Cloud identification /
local weather records
and trained observer
network

through

schools

and

universities

Earthquake/
Vulcanism

Plate tectonics/

Monitoring lava flow
and plate movement

Financial
corruption

Inefficiency/ gluttony

Ethical failure

Betting in
horse racing

Sport/ Habit/ gluttony

Believe in Chance

Playing
roulette

Sport/ Habit/ gluttony

Believe in Chance

Fatal Road
accident

Poor road design/ poor
traffic regulations

Poor

enforcement/
social and political
corruption

Sitting
under a tree

Fall of fruit/ lightning
strike/ branch fall

Exposure to elements/
exposure to organic
environment of the tree

Sleeping

Rest / immobile

Unsuspecting

and
unexpecting processes
at work

War

Ideology/

Conflict/

fanatism

Battle/ terror/ carnage

Life
expectancy

Nutrition / health
service

Care

and

environmental support

Likelihood of risk of an event, each effect

Likelihood is the chance, odds or probability of an occurrence.
Likelihood is the probability of an outcome and concept of risk is
about probability of loss of a valuable resource, for example if the
present illegal felling of valuable timber in Sri Lanka continues
likelihood of loss of revenue to government in the next 10 years
will be around 200 to 300 billion rupees. Loss of hydro power
generation capacity due to same activity may be in the hundreds of
billions of rupees. The increased cost of thermal power
production will be also hundreds of billions of rupees. But with a
proper environmental plan with an investment of about 50 to 60

50

billion rupees, forest rehabilitation can be achieved and hydro
power generation can be stabilised. However these activities have
to be supported by proper legislation. This likelihood of damage
exists also in flood, landslide and traffic control in Sri Lanka,
which is responsible for about a 100 to 150 billion rupee damage
to economy annually.

What is the likelihood landslide in the high mountains ( 500
meters above sea level) in Sri Lanka?

Table 5.3 Likelihood of landslides (based on research 1966 to

2006)

Likelihood of major
landslides (damage over
100,000 rupees) in Sri
Lanka/annual

Likelihood of major
landslides (damage over
100,000 rupees) in Sri Lanka/
rainy season

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