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Published by: api-26790187 on Jun 03, 2010
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07/10/2013

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During this project’s scenario creation workshop,

participants — who represented a range of

regional and international perspectives — selected

the two critical uncertainties that would form

the basis of the scenario framework. They

chose these two uncertainties from a longer

list of potential uncertainties that might

shape the broader contextual environment of

the scenarios, including social, technology,

economic, environmental, and political trends.

The uncertainties that were considered included,

for example, the pervasiveness of confict

in the developing world; the frequency and

severity of shocks like economic and political

crises, disease, and natural disasters; and the

locus of innovation for crucial technologies

for development. (A full list of the critical

uncertainties identifed during the project, as

well as a list of project participants, can be

found in the Appendix.)

The two chosen uncertainties, introduced

below, together defne a set of four scenarios

for the future of technology and international

development that are divergent, challenging,

internally consistent, and plausible. Each of the

two uncertainties is expressed as an axis that

represents a continuum of possibilities ranging

between two endpoints.

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

HIGH

LOW

POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT

WEAK

STRONG

14

Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

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