SMK PUCHONG BATU 14 47100 PUCHONG SELANGOR DARUL EHSAN.

PROJECT WORK FOR ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS 2010

PROBABILITY IN OUR DAILY LIFE

NAME : MUHAMMAD HARIZ FADHILLA BIN SULAIMAN CLASS : 5 AMANAH IC NUMBER : 930805-10-5119 SUBJECT TEACHER : MR PHANG CHIA CHEN
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[ CONTENT ]

INTRODUCTION…………………………………………..1 AIM………………………………………………………….2 PART 1…………………………………………………...3 - 6 PART 2……………………………………………….…..7 - 8 PART 3………………………………………………….9 - 12 CONCLUSION………………………………………...13 - 14 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT…………………………………..15

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[ INTRODUCTION ]

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena. The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. Although an individual coin toss or the roll of a die is a random event, if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain statistical patterns, which can be studied and predicted. Two representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. As a mathematical foundation for statistics, probability theory is essential to many human activities that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. Methods of probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only partial knowledge of their state, as in statistical mechanics. A great discovery of twentieth century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic scales, described in quantum mechanics.

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[ AIM ]

The aims of carrying out this project work are : i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. to apply and adapt a variety of problem-solving strategies to solve problem; to improve thinking skills; to promote effective mathematical communication; to develop mathematical knowledge through problem solving in a way that increases students’ interest and confidence; to use the language of mathematics to express mathematical ideas precisely; to provide learning environment that stimulates and enhances effective learning; to develop positive attitude towards mathematics.

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PROJECT WORK [ PART 1 ]

(A) History: The mathematical theory of probability has its roots in attempts to analyze games of chance by Gerolamo Cardano in the sixteenth century, and by Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal in the seventeenth century (for example the "problem of points"). Christiaan Huygens published a book on the subject in 1657. Initially, probability theory mainly considered discrete events, and its methods were mainly combinatorial. Eventually, analytical considerations compelled the incorporation of continuous variables into the theory. This culminated in modern probability theory, the foundations of which were laid by Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov. Kolmogorov combined the notion of sample space, introduced by Richard von Mises, and measure theory and presented hisaxiom system for probability theory in 1933. Fairly quickly this became the undisputed axiomatic basis for modern probability theory.

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(B) Two categories of PROBABILITY

The difference between empirical and theoretical probability is an important part of our ability to apply probability to a real world set of data. What is the difference between empirical and theoretical probability? Give two to three examples speculative of professions where probability could be used. Explain your answer The difference between empirical, means observation or experience and theoretical probability or speculative are as clear as night and day. Empirical probability is the data that has been proven through trial and error such as the statics on the accidents that involve driving while under the influence. Even the proven data for deaths that are smoking related. The theoretical probability is like guessing and taking a chance you are right much like playing a game of cards you are taking that chance you have the better hand. Insurance policies are made possible by empirical probability. We know the amount of accidents, and we know the amount of times something happens without error. Based on that, it can be calculated what the chance (and thus the cost) is
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of a certain event. (professional) Gambling is about theoretical probability. One can assume that all the chips, cards, tables or whatever are completely fair (or even calculate the unfairness, based on the method of shuffling), so one can calculate the odds of a certain set of cards coming up, before they ever have. Dangerous medical procedures can also have empirical probability playing as a factor. There is always a chance that someone dies under the knife, or that someone cures on their own. Based on those odds, a doctor could advise for or against certain procedures. Those odds are based on other patients who have gone through the same thing.

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[ PART 2 ]

(A) When we playing the monopoly, we have to toss the die once to find who is going to start the game first. The possible outcomes when we toss the die is 1,2,3,4,5, and 6. This is because a die has 6 surface as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1.

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(B) When we tossed two dice simultaneously, the possible outcomes is as shown in the Table 2.

DIE1/DI E2 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)

2 (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)

3 (1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
Table 1.

4 (1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)

5 (1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)

6 (1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)

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[ PART 3 ]
(A)The Table 2 below shows the probability and the possible

outcomes to get the sum of the dots on both turned-up faces.

Sum of the dots on both turned-up faces (x) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Possible outcomes (1,1) (1,2),(2,1) (1,3),(2,2),(3,1) (1,4),(2,3),(4,1),(3,2) (5,1),(4,2),(3,3),(2,4), (1,5) (6,1),(5,2),(4,3),(3,4), (2,5),(1,6) (6,2),(5,3),(4,4),(3,5), (2,6) (6,3),(5,4),(4,5),(3,6) (6,4),(4,6),(5,5) (6,5),(5,6) (6,6)
Table 2.

Probability, P(x) 1/36 1/18 1/12 1/9 5/36 6/36 5/36 1/9 1/12 1/18 1/36

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(B) Based on the Table 2:

A ={The two numbers are not the same} ={(1,2),(1,3), (1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6), (3,1),(3,2),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,5),(4,6), (5,1), (5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5)} B = {The product of the two numbers is greater than 36} =ø P = Both number are prime P = {(2,2),(2,3),(2,5),(3,3),(3,5),(5,3),(5,5)} Q = Difference of 2 number is odd Q = {(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(2,1),(3,4),(3,6),(4,1),(4,3),(4,5),(5,4), (5,6),(6,1),(6,3),(6,5)} C = {Both numbers are prime number or the difference between two numbers is odd} C = {P U Q} C = {(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4), (3,6),(4,1),(4,3),(4,5),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1), (6,3),(6,5)} R = The sum of 2 numbers are even D = {The sum of the two numbers are even and both } D = {P ∩ R}
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D = {(2,2),(3,3),(3,5),(5,3),(5,5)}

[ PART 4 ]
(A) An activity has been conducted by tossing two dice simultaneously 50

times. The frequency (f) of the sum of all dots on both turned-up faces has been recorded in Table 3 below. The value of mean, variance and standard deviation of the data has been calculated.

Sum of the two numbers (x) Frequency(f) 2 2 3 5 4 5 5 1 6 4 7 8 8 8 9 5 10 7 11 3 12 2 Total 50
Table 3.

fx 4 15 20 5 24 56 64 45 70 33 24 360

fx² 8 45 80 25 144 392 512 405 700 363 288 2962

Mean = 360÷50 = 7.2 Varience = 2962÷50-7.2² = 7.4
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Standard Deviation = √7.4 = 2.72

(B) When the number of tossed of the two dice simultaneously is increase to 100 times, the value of mean is also change. (C)Another activity same as (A) has been conducted by tossing two dice simultaneously 100 times.

Sum of the two Frequenc numbers (x) y(f) 2 2 3 6 4 10 5 9 6 16 7 17 8 12 9 11 10 13 11 2 12 2 Total 100
Table 4.

fx 4 18 40 45 96 119 96 99 130 22 24 693

fx² 8 54 160 144 576 833 768 891 1300 242 288 5264

Mean = 693÷100 = 6.93 Varience = 5264÷100-6.93² = 4.6151
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Standard Deviation = √4.6151 = 2.148

Therefore, the prediction that has been made in (B) is true. The mean, varience, and standard deviation is change although the number of tossed of the dice was increase until 100 times because when the number of tossed change the frequency also change.

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[ PART 5 ]

(A)Based on Table 2, the actual mean, the varience and the standard deviation of the sum of all dots on the turned-up faces by using the formulae given was determined.

Mean = ∑ x P(x) Varience = ∑ x² P(x) – (mean)² Sum of the two numbers (x) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 total

Frequency (f) 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 36

fx 2 6 12 20 30 42 40 36 30 22 12 252

fx² 4 18 48 100 180 294 320 324 300 242 144 1974

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Maen = 252÷36 =7 Varience = 1974÷36-7² = 5.83 Standard Deviation = √5.83 = 2.415

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(B) The

mean, variance and standard deviation obtained in

Part 4 and Part 5 is not same because Part 4 was the Empirical Probability and Part 5 was the Theoretical Probability. For example, the empirical probability of rolling a 7 is 4/25 = 16%. But the theoretical probability of rolling a 7 is 6/36 = 1/6 = 16.7%. Table below show the comparison between Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation. Part 4 n= 50 Mean Variance Standard deviation 7.2 7.4 2.72 n= 100 6.93 4.6151 2.148 7 5.83 2.415 Part 5

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(C)The range of mean of the sum of all dots on the turnedup faces as n changes is 2≤mean≤12. This is because as the number of toss, n, increases, the mean will get closer to 7. 7 is the theoretical mean.

FURTHER EXPLORATION

Common intuition suggests that if a fair coin is tossed many times, then roughly half of the time it will turn up heads, and the other half it
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will turn up tails. Furthermore, the more often the coin is tossed, the more likely it should be that the ratio of the number of heads to the number of tails will approach unity. Modern probability provides a formal version of this intuitive idea, known as the law of large numbers. This law is remarkable because it is nowhere assumed in the foundations of probability theory, but instead emerges out of these foundations as a theorem. Since it links theoretically derived probabilities to their actual frequency of occurrence in the real world, the law of large numbers is considered as a pillar in the history of statistical theory. The law of large numbers (LLN) states that the sample average of (independent and identically

distributed random variables with finite expectation μ) converges towards the theoretical expectation μ.

It is in the different forms of convergence of random variables that separates the weak and the strong law of large numbers

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It follows from LLN that if an event of probability p is observed repeatedly during independent experiments, the ratio of the observed frequency of that event to the total number of repetitions converges towards p. Putting this in terms of random variables and LLN we have are independent Bernoulli random variables taking values 1 with probability p and 0 with probability 1-p. E(Yi) = p for all i and it follows

from LLN that

converges top almost surely.

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[ ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ]

I would like to express my gratitude and thanks to my teacher, Mr Phang Chia Chen for his wonderful guidance for me to be able to complete this project work. Next, is to my parents for their continuous support to me throughout this experiment. Special thanks to my friends for their help, and to all those who contributed directly or indirectly towards the completion of this project work. Throughout this project, I acquired many valuable skills, and hope that in the years to come, those skills will be put to good use.

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