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Technical Analysis
Downturn is expected
Indian markets registered decent gains this week amid Daily Movement of Nifty
high volatility mirroring strong cues from its global 4,650
counterparts on the back of improved set of economic
data and encouraging quarterly results of domestic as
4,600
well as global companies. Sensex and Nifty crossed the
Nifty Level
ahead of F&O expiry and the RBI’s quarterly policy Daily Movement of Sensex, Net FIIs & MF investment
review. Further, Market ignored positive cues from Asian 1,100 15,700
markets and remained choppy after the announcement
900 15,600
of the RBI’s quarterly monetary policy review. The RBI
Sensex Level
700
(Rs. crores)
Investment
has kept the key rates unchanged. On the other hand, 15,500
RBI remained optimistic about the GDP growth as it 500
15,400
expected GDP to grow at 6% in FY10 with an upward 300
bias. Further the RBI has increased the inflation forecast 15,300
100
to 5%. The Realty index remained in the lime light on -100 15,200
account of the government’s latest announcement of tax
-300 15,100
benefits as well as keeping the policy rates unchanged 27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul
by RBI in its quarterly monetary policy review. However,
thereafter markets plunged following weak cues from MF -176.80 132.60 -292.30 -49.20
Chinese market. The Chinese government has slashed FII 1,050.60 446.10 738.10 139.10 1,184.00
gasoline prices, which led heavy selling into metal, Sensex 15,375.04 15,331.94 15,173.46 15,387.96 15,670.31
energy and realty stocks in China. Consequently,
Source for FII & MF: Sebi
China’s SSE composite slumped over 7%. In later of the
week, markets made a smart recovery on the back of Weekly return on BSE Sectoral Indices
better than expected results of NTPC, SBI, PNB and
Mahindra & Mahindra. Firm global cues also fueled 7
6.14
investor’s sentiments. Inflation for week ended July 18 6
4.85
came (-) 1.51% vs (-) 1.17% for the previous week, 5
remained in the negative territory for the seventh
4
Return (%)
Realty
Metal
Auto
IT
CG
Power
CD
HC
US markets posted strong gains during the week (till Weekly return on major Global Indices
Thursday), fueled by stabilizing earnings and economic
figures. Moderate upside was seen following the IBM 5
announced that it has entered into a definitive
agreement to acquire SPSS Inc. The all-cash 4.15
transaction has a price of USD 50 per share, resulting in 4
a total cash consideration of approximately USD 1.2
billion. Investors also delved into a slew of earnings 2.96
Return (%)
reports, with Visa, Exxon Mobil, Master Card, American 3
Express, Amazon.com, Black & Decker and
Schlumberger reporting results, which firmly beat Wall 1.83 1.89
Street estimates. On the economic front, new home 2
1.30 1.57
sales jumped by 11% to an annual rate of 3,84,000 in
1.07 1.17
June and consumer confidence index fell to 46.6 in July 0.94
from an unrevised 49.3 in June. The durable goods 1 0.54
orders fell 2.5% in June and jobless claims rose to
5,84,000 for the week ended July 25th 2009, from the
NIKKEI 225
DJI
FTSE 100
Nasdaq
S&P 500
CAC 40
Hang Seng
Composite
Compo.
Sensex
NYSE
0
BSE
previous week's revised figure of 5,59,000.
SSE
Asian markets gained during the week on positive
earnings momentum helped by a solid run on Wall Data of US & European markets taken from July 23 to July 30, 2009
Street. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose buoyed by hopes for
better than previously expected results in Japan's
corporate earnings season. High-tech, property and
auto shares also boosted investor’s confidence. China's
SSE Composite climbed led by property developers and
power generators.
Key Events
U.S. New Home Sales rise a strong 11% in June to Finance Minister announced tax sops and home loan interest
384,000 annualized units, smartly outpacing subsidy to boost spending including certain tax measures like
expectations of a 3% rise. The rise in new home making service tax optional from 1st September 2009 and a 1%
sales helped work off inventories of unsold homes state subsidy on home loans up to Rs10 lakh, when the overall cost
which inventories declined to 281,000 from the prior of the house does not exceed Rs 20 lakh.
month’s 293,000.
The Reserve Bank of India has kept all key interest rates, including
Confidence among U.S. consumers fell more than the Bank Rate as well as the repo and reverse repo rates in its First
forecast in July, reflecting a surge in unemployment quarter Review of Monetary Policy for the Year 2009-10, signaling
that threatens to undermine household spending. The that its policy stance still remains focused on money management.
Conference Board’s confidence index dropped to
46.6, a second consecutive decline, following a India received USD 2.2 billion foreign direct investments (FDI) in
reading of 49.3 in June. May this year, department of industrial policy & promotion (DIPP)
reported. There is a 43% drop in the FDI inflow in May 2009
US Commerce Department data showed that new compared to USD 3.9 billion received in the same month of the
durable goods orders fell 2.5% in June, the largest previous year.
percentage drop since January mainly due to
shutdown of auto plants. India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd (IIFCL) has sanctioned
loans worth Rs 6,475 crore for 58 road projects with a total project
Industrial output in Japan showed a jump in the cost of Rs 37,678 crore. This is the largest sanction of loans to road
recent quarter, reinforcing signals from recent projects by any financial institution in the country within a short
corporate earnings that the world's second-largest span of three years.
economy is well on a recovery track. Japan's
industrial output rose 8.3% in the April-June quarter Indian government allowed duty-free import of raw sugar without
from the January-March period - the biggest on-year export obligation for further eight months to augment availability of
jump since 1953. the sweetener in the domestic market. The Centre also gave
permission to private trade to import refined sugar at zero-duty,
Lending growth to the euro-zone private sector which was so far restricted to public sector trading firms STC,
cooled in June, indicating that financing constraints MMTC and PEC. However, the 10 lakh tonnes quantitative
for companies and households pose a threat to the restriction remains on the import.
area’s economic recovery. The annual growth rate of
private-sector loans slowed to a record low of 1.5% in The WPI, used to calculate inflation in the country, is being
June from 1.8% in May. upgraded with base year 2004-05 in lieu of the existing one with
base year 1993-94. With the advancement of the base year and
France's biggest drug maker, Sanofi-Aventis Ltd. will probably a revision of commodities in the index and their weights, it
acquire majority control of unlisted Indian vaccines is expected that the index would provide a better picture of the
maker Shanta Biotechnics in a deal that values the current scenario of prices.
unlisted Indian company at nearly Rs 3,757 crore.
Week ending July 31, 2009
Derivatives
On July 31, Nifty future (near month) closed with the Open Interest in Nifty Future vis-à-vis Nifty
premium of 17.55 points at 4,654.
27,000 4,700
25,000
Nifty Level
19,000
17,000 4,600
15,000
13,000
4,550
11,000
9,000
7,000 4,500
27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul
Open Interest Nifty
Put-Call Ratio
From last week, the put-call ratio decreased by 7
basis points to 0.80 times. 1.05 1.01
1.00
0.95
Times
0.89
Over the week, the maximum addition of contracts in 0.87
0.90
Call option was seen in 4,700 with 134,140 contracts
followed by 93,568 contracts addition in 4,800 Call. 0.85
On the other hand, the maximum accumulation of 0.80
0.80
contracts in Put options was observed in 4,600 and 0.82
4,500 Puts adding 79,191 contracts. 0.75
27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul
FIIs turned out to be net sellers in the last 5 trading FIIs investment in Derivatives
days. Net Investment
Particulars
(Rs. Crore)
Index Futures -1,505.39
Index Options 1.26
Stock Futures -1,007.32
Stock Options 59.68
Total -2,451.77
From July 24 to July 30 (Source: NSE)
Debt
Foreign Institutional Investors were net seller during FIIs & MFs investment in Debt Market
the week to the tune of Rs 460 crore. But, Mutual FIIs Net MFs Net
Funds continued their buying in the debt market, with Period Investment Investment
a net investment of Rs 3,039.90 crore during the (Rs. Crore) (Rs. Crore)
week. However, on monthly basis, they both still 27-July -44.60 2,148.70
remain net buyers. 28-July 25.70 732.00
29-July -47.50 -122.80
30-July 79.90 418.00
31-July -473.50 -136.00
Total -460.00 3,039.90
This Month 442.90 28,165.60
Source: SEBI
Week ending July 31, 2009
Under Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF), during the Liquidity Adjustment Facility
week, RBI was has contracted liquidity from the Reverse Repo (Rs. Repo (Rs.
Date
market to the tune of Rs 5,66,555 crore. However, Crore) Crore)
there was no transaction under Repo. 27-July 1,13,190 -
28-July 1,16,235 -
29-July 1,18,625 -
30-July 1,20,785 -
31-July 97,720 -
Source: RBI
Commodity
Crude prices inclined w-o-w. Crude oil strengthened on Weekly change in Crude prices per Barrel
first day of the week led by the gains in the equities 30-Jul 23-Jul Change (%)
markets and got additional support from the weakness
Intl Crude Oil Prices in USD 70.11 69.25 1.24
in the U.S. dollar. The recent encouraging movements in
the stock markets had increased investor expectations Domestic Price in Rs. 3,391.53 3,348.37 1.29
about the potential scope of oil demand. Subsequently
prices declined as the stock markets fell, the dollar
strengthened and government reports showed an
increase in fuel inventories in the U.S., the biggest
global consumer. The increase in the U.S. oil stockpiles
point to a decrease in demand. The U.S. Department of Inventories (weekly change)
Energy reported a contra seasonal rise in supplies of Released on For week ended
5.15 million barrels for the week ending July 24, 2009.
The rise in stockpiles is attributed to higher imports and 29-Jul-09 24-Jul-09 5.15 M barrels
lower refinery utilization due to falling refining margins.
U.S. fuel consumption in the last four months has
reportedly dropped by 4.1% from year ago levels. Oil
prices surged on Thursday, rising in lockstep with major
global indexes.
Gold prices declined w-o-w with international prices Weekly change in Gold prices in Rs/10gms
losing more than USD 17 or 1.84% an ounce and
30-Jul 23-Jul Change (%)
settling at USD 932.50 per troy ounce on Thursday.
Domestic gold prices declined following global trend. London pm fix (USD/troy oz) 932.50 950.00 -1.84
Gold demand may pick up from August as pent up Mumbai (Rs/10gms) 14,950 15,020 -0.47
demand and the festive season ahead are seen
boosting sales, potentially rescuing an almost 50% sales
drop.
Week ending July 31, 2009
Forex
Rupee inclined 0.45% to 48.16 per USD w-o-w basis. INR vs. USD and Euro
INR started the week on a strong note overcoming a
48.50
lack of direction from the share market and month-end 69.00
dollar demand from importers. The currency closed
unchanged on the second day after edging down during 48.40 68.80
the day as the stock market lost ground and on dollar
Euro
demand from importers. Subsequently the unit dropped 48.30 68.60
for two consecutive sessions on month-end dollar
USD
demand from importers and as losses in local shares 68.40
triggered dollar buying by banks, while the U.S. unit's 48.20
gains versus majors overseas added to the pressure. 68.20
Hopes of increased capital inflows by foreign funds in 48.10 68.00
line with better trends in the other Asian equity markets
20-Jul
21-Jul
22-Jul
23-Jul
24-Jul
27-Jul
28-Jul
29-Jul
30-Jul
31-Jul
and dollar's weakness against other currencies mainly
supported the Rupee on Friday. However, sustained
dollar demand from oil refiners for month-end USD Euro
requirements capped gains.
Economy
Inflation negative for 7th straight week WPI based Inflation in last three months
1.00
Inflation rate as measured by wholesale price index 0.70
0.61 0.61
(WPI) stood at -1.54% for the week ended July 18th, 0.48
0.50 0.57
2009. The decrease in the WPI based inflation was due 0.48
0.13
to downward movement of fuel, power, light & lubricants
Percentage
9-May
16-May
23-May
30-May
4-Jul
11-Jul
18-Jul
6-Jun
13-Jun
20-Jun
27-Jun
18-Apr
25-Apr
-1.00 -1.14
-1.55 -1.17
-1.30
-1.50
-1.21 -1.54
-1.61
-2.00
Source- Office of the Economic Advisor
Week ending July 31, 2009
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