5/12/2010

Data & Information

The Business School University of Kashmir

Definitions

 Fact – statement of some element of truth about a subject matter or a domain.

Example: milk is white, sun rises in east
 Intelligence – capacity to acquire, store, improve and apply knowledge  Experience – what we have done and what has happened in past in a specific

area of work
 Common sense – natural ability to sense, judge or perceive situations ; grows

stronger over time
 Memory – ability to store and retrieve relevant experience at will, is part of

intelligence
 Learning – is knowledge or skill that is acquired by instruction or study
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Definitions
 Knowledge. Information once analyzed, understood, and explained is  knowledge or foreknowledge (predictions or forecasts).

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Data, Information and Systems
 Data vs. Information

– Data • A ―given,‖ or fact; a number, a statement, or a picture • Represents something in the real world • The raw materials in the production of information – Information

• Data that have meaning within a context
• Data in relationships • Data after manipulation
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Data, Information and Systems
 Data Manipulation

– Example: customer survey • Reading through data collected from a customer survey with questions in various categories would be time-consuming and not very helpful.

• When manipulated, the surveys may provide useful information.

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Why Information Systems

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What Is an Information System?

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Systems
 Generating Information

– Computer-based ISs take data as raw material, process it, and produce information as output.

Figure 1.1 Input-process-output
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Characteristics of Information

Figure 1.2 Characteristics of useful information

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Why Information Systems
Activities in an Information System

INPUT

PROCESS

OUTPUT

FEEDBACK

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Why Information Systems

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Information Needs of a Shopkeeper

Daily sales account

List of low stock items to be re-ordered
List of overstock items Long overdue payments Profit and loss account

Used to streamline day to day operations called Operational information

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Information Needs of a Shopkeeper

 Slow or fast moving items

 Reliable supplier of items
 Sales trends

Used to improve profitability of shop called Tactical information

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Information Needs of a Shopkeeper

Whether to stock different varieties of items

Whether to diversify
Whether to start a new branch in a different locality Whether to start an e-shop

Information to expand business and explore new opportunities Known as Strategic Information

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Types of Information

Strategic

: Needed for long range planning and directions. • This is less/un- structured.

Tactical

: Needed to take short range decisions to improve • Profitability and Performance.

Operational : Needed for day to day operations of the organization. • Eg: Daily Sales, Billing.

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SYSTEM
System as a group of interrelated components working together toward a
common goal by accepting inputs and producing outputs in an organized transformation process.

Such a system has three basic interacting components or functions:

 Input: Involves capturing and assembling elements that enter the system to be

processed. For example, raw materials, energy, data, and human effort must be secured and organized for processing.

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SYSTEM
 Processing: Involves transformation process that converts input into output.

Examples to these are manufacturing process, the human breathing process, etc.
 Output: Involves transferring elements that have been produced by

transformation process to their ultimate destination, Examples to these are
finished products, human services and management information that must be transmitted to their human users.

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System

System

Input

Process

Output

Feedback and Control Environment

Fig. Showing Elements of a System
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System
A system with feedback and control components is sometimes called a cybernetic system, that is, a self-monitoring, self-regulating system.
 Feedback: It is data about the performance of a system. It is actually

measured in terms of the outcome to that of the predefined objectives set out at the beginning of the process.
 Control: It involves monitoring and evaluating feedback to determine

whether a system is moving toward the achievement of its goal.

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System Characteristics
 A system does not exist in a Vacuum; rather, it exists and function in an

environment containing other systems
 If a system is one of the components of a larger system, it is then

referred to as a subsystem, and the larger system is its environment.
 The system that has the ability to change itself or its environment in

order to survive is an adaptive system

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Types of System
 A large system can be split or decomposed into smaller subsystems

up to a certain level
 The decomposition of a system into subsystems can be in a serial

form or it could be in a matrix form
 In a serial system processing, the entire output of a subsystem is the

input to the next sub-system and so on.
 In the matrix arrangement the different outputs go to different sub-

systems. A subsystem receives more than one input from other
subsystems.

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Types of System
 If the process of input transformation is not visible and

understandable then we say that the system is a black box and
the process is not transparent
 Most of the systems can be viewed in a hierarchical structure.

Breaking the system in a hierarchical manner provides a way to structured systems analysis. It gives a clear understanding of the

contribution of each subsystem in terms of data flow and
decisions, and its interface to the other subsystems.

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Types of System
The systems can be classified in different categories based on the

predictability of its output and the degree of information exchange
with the environment. Deterministic- when the inputs, the process and the outputs of a system are known with certainty. In a deterministic system, you can predict the output with certainty.

Probabilistic- when the output can only be predicted in
probabilistic terms. The accounting system is deterministic while

the demand forecasting system is a probabilistic one.
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Types of System
 If a system is functioning in isolation from the environment, then the

system does not have any exchange with the environment nor is it
influenced by the environmental changes. Such a system is called a closed system.
 If the system has exchange with the environment and is influenced by

the environment then it is called an open system.
 All kinds of accounting systems, viz., cash, stocks, attendance of

employees are closed systems. Most of the systems based on rules and principles are closed systems.
 The systems which are required to respond to changes in the

environment, such as marketing, communication and forecasting are open systems
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Types of System
Specify in the inputs, processes, and outputs of the following
systems. Determine what is required for each system to be efficient and effective.
 Post Office  Elementary school  Grocery store  Farm

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Types of System
Organization Inputs Processes Outputs

Post Office School
Grocery Store Farm

Letters mailed Students

Delivery of mail Teaching

Mail delivered Graduating students
Food sold to customers Food delivered to market

Food products

Stocking, selling

Feedstock, seeds, Animals and fertilizer plants growing

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System
List possible kinds of feedback for the systems in the previous question.
 Post Office: Customers' complaints, average days for a delivery, cost,

percent of lost mail
 School: Students' complaints, achievement on national tests, success

in job placement
 Grocery store: Customer feedback on quality, quantity, percent of

theft and waste, etc.
 Farm: Quality of output sold to market

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Information Systems
•Information system consists of physical and non-physical components working together

•A computer combines with a software program may constitute an information system, but only if the program is designed to produce information that helps an organization or person to achieve a specific goal.

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Information Systems
Management Information System (MIS) Computer-based or manual system - transforms data into information to support the decision making. MIS can be classified as performing three functions: (1) To generate reports - for example, financial statements, inventory status reports, or performance reports needed for routine or non-routine purposes. (2) To answer what-if questions asked by management. For example, questions such as "What would happen to deposits if the bank increases interest rates?" can be answered by MIS. (3) To support decision making. This type of MIS is appropriately called Decision Support System (DSS). -DSS attempts to integrate the decision maker, the data base, and the quantitative models being used.
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Information Systems?

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WHY INFORMATION SYSTEMS?
Major Business Functions

 Sales and marketing  Manufacturing  Finance  Accounting  Human resources

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MIS in Marketing
Marketing Management Information Systems:
 It supports managerial activity in the area of product

development, distribution, pricing decisions, promotional effectiveness, and sales forecasting.
 It mainly relies on external sources of data like competitors

and customers.

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS Sales and Marketing Systems

Major functions of systems:
 Sales management, market research, promotion, pricing, new

products

Major application systems:
 Sales order info system, market research system, pricing

system

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS Sales and Marketing Systems

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MIS in Manufacturing
Manufacturing Management Information Systems:
 Inventories are provided just in time to reduce costs of

warehousing huge inventories .

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
Manufacturing and Production Systems

Major functions of systems:
 Scheduling, purchasing, shipping, receiving, engineering,

operations

Major application systems:
 Materials resource planning systems, purchase order

control systems, engineering systems, quality control systems

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MIS in Finance
Financial Management Information Systems:
 It provides financial information to all financial managers

within an organization including the chief financial officer.
 The chief financial officer analyzes historical and current

financial activity, future financial needs, and monitors and controls the use of funds over time using the MIS

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

Financing and Accounting Systems

Major functions of systems:
 Budgeting, general ledger, billing, cost accounting

Major application systems:
 General ledger, accounts receivable, accounts payable,

budgeting, funds management systems

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MIS in HR
Human Resources Management Information Systems:
 These systems are concerned with activities related to

workers, managers, and other individuals employed by the organization.
 It includes, work-force analysis and planning, hiring,

training, and job assignments.

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

Human Resource Systems

Major functions of systems:
 Personnel records, benefits, compensation, labor relations,

training

Major application systems:
 Payroll, employee records, benefit systems, career path

systems, personnel training systems

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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Key Elements of An Organization
 People: Managers, knowledge workers, data workers,

production or service workers
 Structure: Organization chart, products, geography  Operating procedures: Standard operating procedures (SOP,

rules for action)

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IT/Tools for Managers

 Hardware: Physical equipment  Software: Detailed preprogrammed instructions  Storage: Physical media for storing data and the software  Communications Technology: transfers data from one

physical location to another
 Networks: link computers to share data or resources

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IS & Organizations

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TOWARD THE DIGITAL FIRM

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Information Sytems

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Major Types of Systems
• Executive Support Systems (ESS) • Decision Support Systems (DSS) • Management Information Systems (MIS) • Knowledge Work Systems (KWS) • Office Systems • Transaction Processing Systems (TPS)

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

Transaction Processing Systems (TPS)
Operational Level : • Basic business systems that serve the operational level • A computerized system that performs and records the daily routine transactions necessary to the conduct of the business

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

Knowledge Work Systems (KWS)
Knowledge level
 Inputs

:

Design specs Modeling

 Processing :

 Outputs
 Users

: :

Designs, graphics Technical staff and professionals

Example: Engineering work station

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

Management Information System (MIS)
Management level
 Inputs

:

High-volume data Simple models

 Processing :

 Outputs
 Users

: :

Summary reports Middle managers

Example: Annual budgeting

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

Decision Support System (DSS)
Management level
 Inputs

:

Low/High volume data Interactive

 Processing :

 Outputs
 Users

: :

Decision analysis Professionals, Staff

Example: Forecasting

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

Executive Support System (ESS)
Strategic level
 Inputs

:

Aggregate data Interactive

 Processing :

 Outputs
 Users

: :

Projections Senior managers

Example: 5-year operating plan

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Business processes

Business Processes and Information Systems

 Manner in which work is organized, coordinated, and focused to produce

a valuable product or service

 Concrete work flows of material, information, and knowledge—sets of activities

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Business Processes and Information Systems  Unique ways to coordinate work, information, and knowledge

 Ways in which management chooses

to coordinate work

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Business Processes and Information Systems

Information systems help organizations
 Achieve great efficiencies by automating parts of processes

 Rethink and streamline processes

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Examples of Business Processes

 Manufacturing and production: Assembling product, checking
quality, producing bills of materials

 Sales and marketing: Identifying customers, creating customer
awareness, selling

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Examples of Business Processes

 Finance and accounting: Paying creditors, creating financial
statements, managing cash accounts

 Human Resources: Hiring employees, evaluating performance,
enrolling employees in benefits plans

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Business Processes and Information Systems

Cross-Functional Business Processes
 Transcend boundary between sales, marketing, manufacturing, and

research and development

 Group employees from different functional specialties to a complete

piece of work

Example: Order Fulfillment Process

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Enterprise Applications
 Enterprise systems  Supply chain management systems  Customer relationship management systems  Knowledge management systems

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Traditional View of the Systems

 Within the business: There are functions, each having its uses of
information systems

 Outside the organization‘s boundaries: There are customers and
vendors

Functions tend to work in isolation

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Figure 2-13
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Benefits of Enterprise Systems  Firm structure and organization: One organization

 Management: Firm-wide knowledge-based management processes

 Technology: Unified platform
 Business: More efficient operations and customer-driven business processes

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Challenges of Enterprise Systems  Difficult to build: Require fundamental changes in the way the business operates

 Technology: Require complex pieces of software and large investments of time, money, and expertise  Centralized organizational coordination and decision making: Not the best way for the firms to operate

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Supply Chain Management (SCM)
making, and moving a product

Supply Chain Management (SCM)

 Close linkage and coordination of activities involved in buying,

 Integrates supplier, manufacturer, distributor, and customer logistics

time

 Reduces time, redundant effort, and inventory costs

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Management Information Systems 8/e
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ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Supply Chain Management (SCM)

Supply Chain

 Network of organizations and business processes

 Helps in procurement of materials, transformation of raw materials

into intermediate and finished products

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Management Information Systems 8/e
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Supply Chain Management (SCM)

Limitations:
 Inefficiencies can waste as much as 25% of company‘s operating costs

 Bullwhip Effect: Information about the demand for the product gets

distorted as it passes from one entity to next

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Supply Chain Management (SCM)  Helps in distribution of the finished products to customers

 Includes reverse logistics - returned items flow in the reverse direction

from the buyer back to the seller

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Management Information Systems 8/e
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ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

How Information Systems Facilitate Supply Chain Management
         Decide when, what to produce, store, move Rapidly communicate orders Communicate orders, track order status Check inventory availability, monitor levels Track shipments Plan production based on actual demand Rapidly communicate product design change Provide product specifications Share information about defect rates, returns

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Management Information Systems 8/e
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ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Supply Chain Management (SCM)

 Supply chain planning system: Enables firm to generate forecasts for
a product and to develop sourcing and a manufacturing plan for the product

 Supply chain execution system: Manages flow of products through
distribution centers and warehouses

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Management Information Systems 8/e
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ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Collaborative Commerce  Uses digital technologies to enable multiple organizations to collaboratively design, develop, build, move, and manage products

 Increases efficiencies in reducing product design life cycles, minimizing

excess inventory, forecasting demand, and keeping partners and customers informed

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Private Industrial Networks
 Web-enabled networks

Industrial Networks

 Link systems of multiple firms in an industry  Coordinate transorganizational business processes

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Customer Relationship Management (CRM)
customers

Customer Relationship Management (CRM)

 Manages all ways used by firms to deal with existing and potential new

 Business and Technology discipline  Uses information system to coordinate entire business processes of a firm

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Customer Relationship Management (CRM)  Provides end-to-end customer care

 Provides a unified view of customer across the company

 Consolidates customer data from multiple sources and provides

analytical tools for answering questions

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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

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Management Information Systems 8/e
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Knowledge Management Systems
 Creating knowledge  Discovering and codifying knowledge  Sharing knowledge  Distributing knowledge

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The End
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Management Information Systems

Feasibility Study
Three types of feasibility :
 Technical Feasibility  Economical Feasibility  Operational Feasibility

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Technical Feasibility
 H/W

-

I/P, O/P, Communication, Storage

 S/W

-

Database, OS, Languages

 Application -

System Packages, Management Science Models

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Economical Feasibility
 Costs

-

Sytems/Programmes, Operations, H/W, S/W

 Savings

-

Operating Expenses, Clerical Personnel,

Equipment

 Benefits

-

Tangible Intangible

---- Reduction in Production Cost ---- Customer Satisfaction

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Operational Feasibility
 Management

-

Operating Management

Middle Management Top Management

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Reports of MIS
 Periodic Scheduled Reports.

 Exception Reports.

 Demand Reports and Responses.

 Push Reporting.

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Information Technology and MIS
 Information Technology is defined as that branch of computer science

that includes: Hardware. Software. Communication Technology. Storage systems and Other Information processing technologies.

10

Computer Hardware------The physical equipment

Secondary storage
Communication Devices Central Processing Unit Buses
•Magnetic disk •Optical disk •Magnetic tape

Primary Storage Output Devices
•Printers •VDT

Input Devices
•Keyboard •Computer mouse •Touch screen •Source data automation

•Plotters
•Audio output

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Computer Software

Computer Software

Application Software

System Software

General purpose Application Programs

Application-Specific System Management System Development Programs Programs Programs

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Communication Technology
 Communications technology allows systems to transfer data from one location to

another for the transmission of voice, data, images, sound and even video. It can take the form of :• Wired transmission: The transmission media can be

• Twisted pair cable. • Coaxial cable.

• Fiber-optic cable.
• Wireless transmission: This includes:-

• Microwave Transmission. • Satellite Transmission.

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Using Communication Technology for Business Solutions
 The Internet is revolutionizing communications by providing a

worldwide network linking business, government, and scientific and educational organizations to individuals. Internet use falls into several

major areas, including:
• Electronic mail/ Voice mail. • World Wide Web. • Chat. • Electronic Data Interchange. • Electronic Commerce. • Mobile Commerce.

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Using Communication Technology for Business Solutions

Intranets

These help organizations in creating richer, more responsive information environments in which members of an organization can exchange ideas, share information and work together on common projects and assignments regardless of their physical location.

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Using Communication Technology for Business Solutions

Extranets

These are privately owned networks that are extended to authorized users outside the company e.g. authorized buyers, retailers, distributors, customers. They are often used for collaborating with other companies for:
1. Supply Chain Management. 2. Customer Relationship Management. 3. Product design and development. 4. Training efforts.

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Enterprise application architecture presenting an overview of the major cross-functional enterprise applications and their interrelationships. Suppliers
Supply Chain Management. Sourcing. Procurement Enterprise Resource Planning. Internal Business Processes. Customer Relationship Management. Marketing. Sales. Service Collaboration. Decision Support. Knowledge Management. Selling. Distribution. Partner Relationship Management.

Employees

Partners

Customers 10

Supply Chain Management

 It is a cross-functional inter-enterprise system that uses information

technology to help support and manage the links between some of company‘s key business processes and those of its suppliers, customers and business partners.
 The goal of SCM is to create a fast, efficient and low-cost network of

business relationships, or supply chain, to get a company‘s products
from concept to market.

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Enterprise Resource Planning

 Integrated cross-functional software that re-engineers manufacturing,

distribution finance, human resources and other basic business process of a company to improve its efficiency, agility, and profitability.

 It focuses on the company‘s internal aspects giving them an integrated

real-time view of its core business processes.

 Simply the technological backbone of e-business.

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Customer Relationship Management

 A cross-functional e-business application that integrates and automates

many customer serving processes in sales, direct marketing, account and order management, and customer service and support.

 CRM systems create an IT framework of web-enabled software and

databases that integrates these processes with the rest of a company‘s business operations.

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Knowledge Management
 Organizing and sharing the diverse forms of business information

created within an organization. Includes managing project and enterprise document libraries, discussion databases, intranet website

databases, and other types of knowledge bases.
 Different phases of a knowledge management system (KMS).

• Capturing/Acquisition of data/information • Transformation of Info. into Knowledge • Knowledge Storage • Disseminating/Sharing of Knowledge

Figure
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Capturing/Acquisition of Data/Information

 Various technologies that can help in capturing of information

are: • Document Management System: Document management system keeps track of masses

of data and information, which is stored in a secure file vault where its integrity is guaranteed and all changes to it, is monitored, controlled, and recorded providing far easy
and faster access to all the documents. It takes care of creating, storing, editing, and distributing documents.
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Capturing/Acquisition of Data/Information
 Database

Database is a collection of data organized to serve many applications efficiently by centralizing the data and minimizing

redundant data. It is a computerized record keeping system that stores,
maintains, and provides access to information.

Database Management System (DBMS) is simply the software that permits an organization to centralize data, manage them efficiently, and provide access to the stored data by applications programs. The DBMS acts as an interface between application programs and the physical data files.
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Capturing/Acquisition of Data/Information

 Data Warehouse

An integrated collection of data extracted from operational,

historical and external databases and cleaned, transformed and cataloged for retrieval and analysis to provide business intelligence for
business decision making.

 Search Engines

These are huge databases of web page files that have been assembled automatically by machine.
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Transformation of Info. into Knowledge

Useful technologies for this phase of the knowledge management process include:
 Multidimensional Data Analysis: Another term for multidimensional

data analysis is Online Analytical Processing (OLAP), which is a function of business intelligence software that enables a user to easily and selectively extract and view data from different points of view. OLAP tools structure data hierarchically – the way managers think of their enterprises, and also allows business analysts to rotate that data, changing the relationships to get more detailed insight into corporate information.
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Transformation of Info. into Knowledge

 Data mining or Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) provides an

organization with highly tangible benefits in the area of analysis. Data
mining is the nontrivial extraction of implicit, previously unknown, and potentially useful information from data. This encompasses a number of different technical approaches such as clustering, data summarization, learning classification rules, finding dependency net works, analyzing changes, and detecting anomalies.
 Data mining software tools find hidden patterns and relationships in

large pools of data and infer rules from them that can be used to
predict future behavior and guide decision-making.
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Transformation of Info. into Knowledge contd.

 Decision Support Systems (DSS)

These are a specific class of computerized information system that supports business and organizational decision-making activities.
 Artificial Intelligence (AI)

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Info/Knowledge Storage

 Knowledge repositories are widely recognized as key components of

most knowledge management systems. Once knowledge is captured, it must be stored in a knowledge repository. A knowledge repository is a

collection of both internal and external knowledge.

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Info/Knowledge Dissemination

 The final phase is effectively communicating the captured "knowledge."

In fact, knowledge is not truly captured. Instead, what is captured is information that is more easily transformed into knowledge by the

recipient. The key technologies that can be used for dissemination are:
• E-mail • Teleconferencing, Data-conferencing • Videoconferencing • Groupware, and • Intranets.
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Decision Making 2009

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DECISION MAKING
System is a collection of objects such as people, resources, concepts, and procedures intended to perform a function or to serve a goal. • Closed systems are totally independent. • Open systems dependent on their environment. • System effectiveness is the degree to which goals are achieved. • System efficiency is a measure of the use of inputs (or resources) to achieve outputs.

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Decision making is a process of choosing among alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining a goal or goals.
Simon’s 4 Phases of Decision Making (1) intelligence decision making (2) design problem solving

(3) choice problem solving
(4) implementation

decision making

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Simplification/Assumption Reality

INTELLIGENCE PHASE Organizational objectives Search and scanning Data collection Problem identification Problem ownership Problem classification Problem statement Problem statement DESIGN PHASE Formulate a model Set criteria for choice Search for alternatives Predict and measure outcomes Alternatives

Validation of the model

Success

Verification, testing of proposed solution

CHOICE PHASE Solution to the model Sensitivity analysis Selection of best alternative (s) Plan for implementation

Implementation of solution

Solution

Failure

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1. Intelligence phase
 Scan the environment  Analyze organizational goals (e.g. Inventory Management, Job   

Selection, lack or an incorrect web presence) Collect data (Monitoring & analyzing) Identify problem Categorize problem – Programmed (repetitive & routine) ---Scheduling of employees, inventory level etc – Non-programmed (Unstructured) --- Merger & Acquisitions – Decomposed into smaller parts Assess ownership and responsibility for problem resolution

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2. Design phase • Formulate a model

• Set criteria for choice (Are we willing to take High risk or we prefer low risk approach) • Search for alternatives
• Predict and measure outcomes (E.g. Profit Maximization)

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3. Choice phase
•Each alternative must be evaluated
•Sensitivity analysis (determines robustness of any given alternative) •Selection of best alternative (s) •Plan for implementation solution - set of values for the decision variables in a selected alternative

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4. Implementation phase
•Putting a recommended solution to work • Vague boundaries which include: –Dealing with resistance to change –User training –Upper management support •The problem is considered solved after the recommended solution to the model is successfully implemented.

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Source: Based on Sprague, R.H., Jr., “A Framework for the Development of DSS.” MIS Quarterly, Dec. 1980, Fig. 5, p. 13.

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Decision Support Systems
 Intelligence Phase

– Automatic • Data Mining

– Expert systems, CRM, neural networks
– Manual • OLAP • KMS – Reporting • Routine and ad hoc

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Decision Support Systems
 Design Phase

– Financial and forecasting models – Generation of alternatives by expert system – Relationship identification through OLAP and data mining – Use of KMS – Business process models from CRM, RMS, ERP, and SCM

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Decision Support Systems
 Choice Phase

– Identification of best alternative
– Identification of good enough alternative

– What-if analysis
– Goal-seeking analysis

– May use KMS, GSS, CRM, ERP, and SCM systems

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Decision Support Systems
 Implementation Phase

– Improved communications – Collaboration – Training – Supported by KMS, expert systems, GSS

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TYPES OF DECISIONS

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TYPES OF DECISIONS
Decisions are categorized along two dimensions:-

 The nature of the decision to be made

 The scope of the decision itself

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TYPES OF DECISION
On the basis of the nature of the decision:-

1)Structured decision:-It‘s the one for which a well defined decision making procedure exists. 2)Unstructured decision:- it is the one for which all the three decision phases are unstructured. 3)Semi structured decision:- In this type one or two phases are structured and the others are not.

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On the basis of scope of the decision itself.

1.

Strategic Decision:- It is the one which effects the entire organization or a major part of it for a long period of time

2.

Tactical Decision:- It effects how a part of the organization does business for a limited time in the future.

3.

Operational Decision:- It is the one which effects a particular activity currently taking place in an organization but either has a little impact on the future.

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Combination of various types of Decisions
 Structured /operational  Structured / tactical  Structured/ strategic  Semi-structured/ operational.  Semi-structured/ tactical  Semi-structured / strategic  Unstructured/ operational  Unstructured/ tactical  Unstructured/ strategic
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 Structured/Operational: Decide how to cut a log into boards in order

to minimize wastage.

The intelligence phase is trivial; if a log arrives at mill, it must be cut .

The design phases likewise fixed; the products that the mill produces and hence the acceptable types of cuts.

The choice phase can be optimized mathematically because the value of each potential board is known from business consideration and the number of boards that can be operated via each communication of cuts is a problem.
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 Structured /Tactical: Choosing the way in which to depreciate

corporate assets. Resource allocation problems that can be solved by linear programming methods are also in this category.

 Structured /Strategic: Deciding weather or not to proceed with an

R&D project on the bases of projected ROI

A plant location decision could be in this category if the only factors in decisions are quantifiable, such as transportation costs of known raw materials from known locations and of known products to known markets.
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 Semistructured/Operational: Deciding to accept or reject an applicant

to a selective collage.

 Semitructured /Tactical: Choosing an insurance company for an

employee health program. Cost per employee is an important and objective factor in this decision. Intangible factors include acceptability of a company to the employee population and the relative importance of different benefits: is 100 percent hospitalization coverage with Rs.

500 deductible amount better or worse than 80 percent coverage with no deductible?

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 Semitructured /Strategic: Deciding whether or not to enter a new

market. Sales projections, marketplace growth data, development cost estimates and marketing expenses forecasts can combine to provide a profit-and-loss forecast. However there are countless factors that could

make it totally worthless. Judgment of experienced managers is needed for the final step.

 Unstructured/Operational: Dealing with a machine breakdown. There

is no set procedure what to do while awaiting repairs. The decision is operational because the way a company deals with one machine failure need not set a precedent for the next.

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 Unstructured /Tactical: Hiring decisions typically fall into this area,

especially if the job to be filled is above level where aptitude and ability tests can be relied on as performance indicators.

 Unstructured/Strategic: Deciding how to respond to an unfriendly

takeover proposal made by a competitor. The action can have a long term impact on the entire firm.

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Decision Support Frameworks
Type of Control Type of Decision: Operational Control Managerial Control Strategic Planning

Structured
(Programmed)

Accounts receivable,
accounts payable, order

Budget analysis, shortterm forecasting,

Investments, warehouse
locations, distribution

entry Production scheduling, inventory control

personnel reports Credit evaluation, budget preparation,
project scheduling,

centers Mergers and acquisitions, new
product planning,

Semistructured

rewards systems Unstructured (Unprogrammed) Buying software, approving loans, help desk Negotiations, recruitment, hardware purchasing
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The components of the quantitative model – result variable indicate how well the system performs – decision variables describe the alternative course of action – uncontrollable variables or parameters are not under the control of the decision maker

Uncontrollable variables Decision variables
Mathematical relationships

Result variables

– intermediate result variables reflect intermediate outcomes
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Examples of the Components of Models.
Decision Area Financial investment Variables Investment alternatives and amounts How long to invest When to invest Marketing Advertising budget Where to advertise Manufacturing What and how much to produce Inventory levels Compensation programs Accounting Use of computers Audit schedule Data processing cost Error rate Computer technology Tax rates Legal requirements Result Variables Total profit Rate of return (ROI) Earnings per share Liquidity level Market share Customer satisfaction Total cost Quality level Employee satisfaction Customers' income Competitors' actions Machine capacity Technology Materials prices Uncontrollable Variables and Parameters Inflation rate Prime rate Competition

Transportation

Shipments schedule

Total transport cost

Delivery distance Regulations

Services

Staffing levels

Customer satisfaction

Demand for services

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Example Company makes special purpose computers. Decision to be made: how many computers should be produced next month? Two types of computers are considered: T1, T2. They require different days of labour, different costs for material.

Uncontrollable variables constraints on labour and budget Decision variables
X1 = NofT1 X2 = NofT2

Mathematical relationships Maximise profit subject to constraints
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Principle of choice is a decision regarding the acceptability of a solution approach.
• Normative models – chosen alternative is the best of all possible alternatives – suboptimisation – optimisation models • Descriptive models describe things as they are, or as they are believed to be. – no guarantee a solution is optimal – simulation Generating alternatives – automatically by the model – by using heuristics

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Predicting the outcomes of alternatives 1. Decision making under certainty Decision maker knows exactly what the outcome of each course of action will be - deterministic environment. 2. Decision making under risk Each alternative has several possible outcomes, each with a given probability of occurrence - probabilistic or stochastic decision situation. 3. Decision making under uncertainty Several outcomes are possible for each course of action, their probabilities are not known.

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Measuring outcomes The value of the an alternative is judged in terms of goal attainment.

Scenario describes the decision and uncontrollable variables and parameters for a specific modelling situation. Of special interest are: – the worst possible scenario – the best possible scenario – the most likely scenario

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Search • Analytical techniques – mathematical formulae – algorithm: step-by-step search process • Blind search – complete enumeration – incomplete search • Heuristic search (derived from the Greek word for discovery) rules guide the search process
Normative models: – analytical techniques – complete, exhaustive enumeration Descriptive models: – blind search – using heuristics
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Evaluation • Multiple goals – Today's management systems want to achieve multiple goals simultaneously. – Goals are usually partially or totally conflicting. • Sensitivity analysis
Checks the impact of a change in the input data or parameters on the proposed solution (the result variable) 1. Automatic sensitivity analysis tells the range within which an input variable or parameter can vary without impact on the proposed solution one change at a time 2. Trial and error some input data are changed
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• What-if-analysis What will happen to the solution if an input variable or a parameter is changed? e.g. what will happen to the total inventory cost if the cost of carrying inventories increases by 10%?
• Goal seeking analysis Computes the amount of inputs necessary to achieve a desired level of an input (goal). e.g. How many nurses are needed to reduce the average waiting time of a patient in the emergency room to less than 10 minutes.

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Literature:
1. (a) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Fifth Edition E.Turban, Jay Aronson, Prentice Hall, 1998. (b) Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems, Management Support Systems, E.Turban, Fourth Edition, Prentice Hall, 1995. 2. Knowledge-based Decision Support Systems, With Applications in Business, 2nd Edition, M. Klein, L. Methlie, Wiley, 1995.

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SUMMARY
 Systems are composed of inputs, outputs, processes, and decision makers.  A model is simplified representation or abstraction of reality. They can be iconic, analog, or mathematical.  Decision making involves four major phases: intelligence, design, choice, and implementation.

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Models A model is a simplified representation or abstraction of reality. 1. Iconic model is a physical replica of a system. 2. Analog model gives a symbolic representation of reality, behaves like the real system but does not look like it. 3. Mathematical (quantitative) models use mathematical relationships Benefits: – compression of time – easy model manipulation – low cost of the analysis – cost of making mistakes is less than mistakes on real system – can model risk and uncertainty – a very large number of solutions can be analysed – enhance learning and training

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3. Optimisation model generates an optimal solution Limitations: – works if the problem is structured and deterministic 4. Heuristics Informal knowledge of how to solve problems efficiently and effectively, how to plan steps in solving a complex problem, how to improve performance, and so forth.

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Modelling Process

Example: How much to order for the grocery? The Question: How much bread to stock each day?
1. Trial-and-error experimentation on the real system

Not appropriate if: – too many alternatives to explore – the cost of making errors is very high – the environment keeps changing
2. Simulation assume the appearance of the characteristics of reality Problems: – no guarantee that the solution is optimal one – professional development
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Definition of DSS

 DSS is an interactive computer-based systems, which help decision makers

utilize data and models to solve unstructured problems.

 DSS is an interactive computer-based systems, which help decision makers

utilize data and models to solve unstructured problems.

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Definition of DSS

 Decision Support Systems (DSS) are a class of computerized information

systems that support decision-making activities. DSS are interactive computer-based systems and subsystems intended to help decision makers use communications technologies, data, documents, knowledge and/or models to successfully complete decision process tasks.

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Components of DSS
Other computer based systems Internet, intranet, extranet.

Data management

Model management

External models

Knowledge-based subsystems

User interface

Manager (user) Organizational KB

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Components of DSS
Data management subsystem
 The data management subsystem includes a data base, which contains

relevant data for the situation and is managed by software call the database management system (DBMS) .the data management subsystem can be interconnected with the corporate data warehouse, a repository for corporate relevant decision making data. Model management subsystem
 This is software package that includes financial, statistical, management

science, or other quantitative models that provide the system analytical capabilities and appropriate software management. Modeling languages in building custom models are also included, this software is often called a model base management system (MBMS). This component can be connected to corporate or external storage of models.

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Components of DSS
Knowledge based management subsystem
 This subsystem can support any of the other subsystems or act as an

independent component. It provides intelligence to augment the decision maker‘s own. It can be interconnected with the organization‘s knowledge depository, which is called the organizational knowledge base. User interface subsystem
 The user communicates with and commands the DSS through this

subsystem. The user is considered part of the system. Researchers assert that some of unique contributions of DSS are derived from the intensive interaction between the computer and the decision maker.

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Internal data s ources External data Source

THE DATA MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEM
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Finance

Marketing

Production

Personal

Other

Extraction Organizational knowledge base Decision support database

Private personal data

Corporate data warehouse Query Facility
Database management System oRetrieval oInquiry oUpdate oReport generation oDelete Interface management

Data directory

Model management

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THE DATA MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEM
 The data management subsystem is composed of the following elements:  DSS database  Database management system  Data directory.  Query facility.

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THE DATABASE
 A database is a collection of interrelated data organized to meet the needs

and struc-ture of an organization and can be used by more than one person for more than one ap-plication
 The data in the DSS database are extracted from internal and external data

sources, as well as from personal data belonging to one or more Users.

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DATA ORGANISATION
 In small ad hoc DSS, data can be entered directly into models some times

extracted directly from larger databases.
 In large organizations that use extensive data ,such as Wal-Mart, AT&T,

and United Air Lines data are organized in a data warehouse and used when needed .

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EXTRACTION
 To create a DSS database or a data warehouse it is often necessary to capture

data from several sources. This operation is called extraction.
 It basically consists of importing of files, summarization, standardization,

filtration, and condensation of data.
 The data for the warehouse are extracted from internal and external sources.

The extraction process is frequently managed by a DBMS.

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DATABASE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
 A database is created, accessed, and updated by a DBMS.  Most DSS are built with a standard commercial relational DBMS that

provides capabilities such as it captures or extracts data for inclusion in a DSS database ,it updates (adds, deletes, edits, changes) data records and files, retrieves data ,provides data security etc.

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THE QUERY FACILITY
 Query facility is necessary to access, manipulate, and query data.  The query facility includes a special query language.  Important functions of DSS query system are selection and manipulation

operation (e.g., the ability to follow a computer instruction such as "Search for a sales in zone B during June 2000 and summarize sales by salesperson").

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THE DIRECTORY
 The data directory is a catalog of all the data in the database.  It contains data definitions and its main function is to answer questions

about the availability of data items, their source, and their exact meaning.
 The directory is especially appropriate for supporting the intelligence phase

of the decision-making process by helping to scan data and identify problem areas or opportunities.
 It supports the addition of new entries, deletion of entries, and retrieval of

information on specific objects.

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General Functions of the DBMS
Data Definition
 Provides a data definition language (DDL) that allows users to describe

the data entities and their associated attributes and relationships
 Allows for the interrelation of data from multiple sources

Data Manipulation
 Provides the user with a query language to interact with the database  Allows for capture and extraction of data  Provides rapid retrieval of data for ad hoc queries and reports  Allows for the construction of complex queries for retrieval and data
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manipulation

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Data Integrity
 Allows the user to describe rules (integrity constraints) to maintain the

integrity of the database
 Assists in the control of erroneous data entry based on the defined integrity

constraints
Access Control
 Allows identification of authorized users  Controls access to data various elements and data manipulation activities

within the database
 Tracks usage and access to data by authorized users

Concurrency Control
 Provides procedures for controlling simultaneous access to the same data

by more than one user
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Improved data sharing.
The DBMS helps create an environment in which end users have

better access to more and better-managed data. Such access takes it possible for end users to respond quickly to changes in their environment.

Transaction Recovery
Provides a mechanism for restart and reconciliation of the database in

the event of hardware failure Records information on all transactions at certain points to enable satisfactory database restart Minimized data inconsistency.
Data inconsistency exists when different versions of the same data

appear in different places.
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Improved decision making.
 Better-managed data and improved data access make it possible to

generate better quality information, on which better decisions are based.
Increased end-user productivity.
 The availability of data, combined with the tools that transform data

into usable information, empowers end users to make quick, informed decisions that can make the difference between success and failure in the global economy.

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Structure of Model Management System
Models (model base) •Strategic, tactical, operational •Statistical, financial, marketing, mgt. science, accounting etc •Model building blocks

Model directory

Model base management •Modeling commands : creation •Maintenance: update •Database interface •Modeling language

Model execution, integration, and command processor

Data management

Interface management

Knowledge – based subsystem

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Functions of the MBMS
 Creates models easily and quickly, either from scratch or from the building

blocks
 Allows users to manipulate models so that they can conduct experiments

and sensitivity analyses ranging from what-if to goal seeking
 Stores, retrieves and manages a wide variety of different types of models

in a logical and integrated manner
 Accesses and integrates the model building blocks  Catalogs and displays the directory of models for use by several

individuals in the organization

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Functions of the MBMS
 Tracks model data and application use  Interrelates model with appropriate linkages with the database and

integrates them within the DSS
 Manages and maintains the model base with management functions

analogous to database management: store, access, run, update, link, catalog, and query
 Use multiple models to support problem solving

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USER INTERFACE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

Data management and DBMS

Knowledge- based subsystem

Model management and MBMS

User Interface Management System (UIMS)

Language Processor

Input Action Languages

Output Display Languages

Printers, plotters
Users

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General Functions of the DSS Interface
 Allows for interaction with the DSS in a variety of dialog styles  Accommodates the user with a variety of input devices  Presents data with a variety of formats and output devices  Gives user help capabilities, prompting, diagnostic and suggestion routines,

or any other flexible support.
 Stores input and output data.  Provides support for communication among and between multiple DSS

users

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General Functions of the DSS Interface
 variety of formats included menu driven, question/answer, procedural

command language, or natural command language
 Provides for the presentation of data in a variety of formats  Allows for detailed report definition and generation by the DSS user  Allows for the creation of forms, tables, and graphics for data output  Can provide multiple ―windows‖ or views of the data to be available

simultaneously

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CHARACTERISTICS OF DSS
 DSS provides support for decision makers mainly in semi-structured and

unstructured situations by bringing together human judgment and computerized information.
 Support is provided for various managerial levels, ranging from top

executives to line managers.
 Support is provided to individuals as well as to groups.

 DSS provides support to several interdependent or sequential decisions.

The decisions may be made once, several times or repeatedly.
 DSS supports all phases of decision making process; intelligence, design,

choice and implementation.

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CHARACTERISTICS OF DSS
 DSS are adaptive over time. DSS are flexible and so users can add, delete,

combine, change or rearrange basic elements.
 User Interface – Interactive and friendly.  DSS attempt to prove the effectiveness of decision making rather than its

efficiency.
 The decision maker has complete control over all steps of the decision

making process in solving a problem. A DSS specifically aims to support and not to replace the decision maker.

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CHARACTERISTICS OF DSS
 End users should be able to construct and modify simple systems by

themselves. Larger systems can be built with assistance from information system (IS) specialists.
 A DSS usually utilizes models for analyzing decision making situations. The

modeling capability enables experimenting with different strategies under different configurations.

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Benefits of DSS Use

 Extend the decision-maker‘s ability to process information and knowledge  Extend the decision-maker‘s ability to tackle large-scale, time-consuming,

complex problems
 Improve the time associated with making a particular decision  Improve the reliability of a particular decision process or outcome  Encourage exploration and discovery on the part of the decision-maker  Reveal new approaches to thinking about a particular problem space or

decision context
 Generate new evidence in support of a particular decision or confirmation

of existing assumptions
 Create a strategic or competitive advantage over competing organizations
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Limitations of DSS Use

 DSSs cannot yet be designed to contain distinctly human decision-

making talents such as creativity, imaginativeness, or intuition
 The power of a DSS is limited by the computer system upon which it is

running, its design, and the knowledge it possesses at the time of its use
 Language and command interfaces are not yet sophisticated enough to

allow for natural language processing of user directives and inquiries
 DSSs are normally designed to be narrow in scope of application thus

limiting their generalizability to multiple decision-making contexts
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DSS Classification

1.

Alter’s Output Classification (1980)

2.

Holsapple and Whinston’s Classification

1. Text-oriented DSS 2. Database-oriented DSS 3. Spreadsheet-oriented DSS 4. Solver-oriented DSS 5. Rule-oriented DSS 6. Compound DSS

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Alters' Classification of DSS

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Alter’s Classification of DSS
Data-Driven DSS
 Data-Driven DSS take the massive amounts of data available through the

company's TPS and MIS systems and cull from it useful information which executives can use to make more informed decisions.
 Data- Driven DSS emphasize access to and manipulation of large databases

of structured data

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Alter’s Classification of DSS
Model-Driven DSS
 A second category, Model-Driven DSS (accounting and financial models,

representational models, and optimization models).
 Model-Driven DSS emphasize access to and manipulation of a model.  Model-Driven DSS use data and parameters provided by decision-makers to

aid them in analyzing a situation, but they are not usually data intensive.
 Very large databases are usually not needed for Model-Driven DSS.

Primarily used for the typical "what-if" analysis. That is, "What if we increase production of our products and decrease the shipment time?"
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DSS Classifications

Holsapple and Whinston’s Classification 1. Text-oriented DSS 2. Database-oriented DSS 3. Spreadsheet-oriented DSS 4. Solver-oriented DSS

5. Rule-oriented DSS
6. Compound DSS

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Holsapple and Winston Classification
TEXT ORIENTED DSS
 Textually represented information that could have a bearing on decision.  Documents to be electronically created, revised and viewed as needed.  Information Technologies such as documents imaging, hypertext etc can be

incorporated into this type.
 DMS, KMS, Content Mgt System, Business rule system

DATABASE ORIENTED DSS
 In this type of DSS the database plays a major role in the DSS structure.  Strong report generation and query capabilities.  Data are organized in a highly structured format.
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Holsapple and Winston Classification
SPREADSHEET ORIENTED DSS
 Spreadsheet is a modeling language that allows the user to write models to

execute DSS analysis.
 Tools- Statistical packages, linear programming package (Solver), financial

and management science models.
 The most popular tools used are Excel and Lotus 1-2-3.

SOLVER ORIENTED DSS
 A solver is an algorithmic or procedure written as a computer program for

performing certain computations for solving a particular problem type.
 EOQ for calculating optimal ordering quantity or a linear regression routine

for calculating trend.
 Excel, Lotus 1-2-3 and quatro pro can be used to develop such a system.  C++, Lingo etc
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Holsapple and Winston Classification
RULE ORIENTED DSS
 The knowledge component of DSS includes both procedural and inferential

(Reasoning) rules, often in an expert system, format.
 Assignment Algorithm for Flight Scheduling

COMPOUND DSS
 It is a hybrid system that includes two or more of the fine basic structures

explained above. It can be built by using a set of independent DSS, each specializing in one area.

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Other DSS Classification

 Personal  Group  Organizational

 Custom VS Readymade

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DSS Classification
OTHER CLASSIFICATIONS OF DSS INSTITUTIONAL DSS
 Deal with decisions of a recurring nature. An institutionalized DSS can be

developed and refined as it evolves over a number of years because the DSS is used repeatedly to solve identical or similar problems.
 Portfolio Management

ADHOC DSS
 Deals with specific problems that are usually neither anticipated nor

recurring. Adhoc decisions often involve strategic planning issues sometimes management control problems.

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Knowledge-Driven DSS
Knowledge-Driven DSS
 It suggest or recommend actions to managers.  These DSS are computer systems with specialized problem-solving

expertise.
 The "expertise" consists of knowledge about a particular domain,

understanding of problems within that domain, and "skill" at solving some of these problems.
 A related concept is Data Mining. It refers to a class of analytical

applications that search for hidden patterns in a database.
 Data mining is the process of searching through large amounts of data to

produce data content relationships.
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Document-Driven DSS

 A new type of DSS, a Document-Driven DSS is evolving to help managers

retrieve and manage unstructured documents and Web pages.
 The Web provides access to large document databases including databases

of hypertext documents, images, sounds and video.
 Examples of documents that would be accessed by a Document-Based DSS

are policies and procedures, product specifications, catalogs, and corporate historical documents, including minutes of meetings, corporate records, and important correspondence.
 A search engine is a powerful decision aiding tool associated with a

Document-Driven DSS.
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Communications-Driven and Group DSS
 Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) came first, but now a broader

category of Communications-Driven DSS or groupware can be identified.
 It includes communication, collaboration and decision support technologies

that do not fit within those DSS types identified.
 A Group DSS is a hybrid Decision Support System that emphasizes both the

use of communications and decision models.
 A Group Decision Support System is an interactive computer-based system

intended to facilitate the solution of problems by decision-makers working together as a group.
 Groupware supports electronic communication, scheduling, document

sharing, two-way interactive video, White Boards, Bulletin Boards, and Email.
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1. Impact on Structured Tasks, where standard procedures, decision

rules and information flows can be reliably Predefined.
2. Payoff – Improvement in efficient by reducing costs, turnaround

MIS Mgt. Sci / OR DSS

time , replacing clerical personnel or increasing their productivity.
1. Impact mostly on Structured problems (rather than tasks), in which

the objective, data and constraints can be prespecified.
2. Payoff – generation of better solutions for general categories of

problems (e.g. inventory).
1. Impact is on decisions in which there is sufficient structure for

computer and analytic aids to be of value but where the managers judgment is essential.
2. Payoff – extending the range and capability of managers decision

process to help them improveAtheir effectiveness. Rafi Khan

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3. Relevance for managers decision making – indirect (e.g. by

providing reports and access to data.
4. MIS application is routine and done periodically. 3. Relevance for managers – provision of detailed recommendation

MIS Mgt. Sci / OR DSS

and new methods handling complex problems.
4. Application are nonroutine, as needed. 3. Relevance for managers – creation of supportive tool, under their

own control..
4. Application are nonroutine, as needed.

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5/12/2010

Knowledge Management
The Business School
University of Kashmir

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Knowledge Management
  

Ancient Collaboration at the organizational level Could revolutionize collaboration and computing

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Knowledge Management
Helps organizations

   

Identify
Select Organize Disseminate Transfer Important information and expertise within the organizational memory in an unstructured manner

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Knowledge
 Understanding gained through experience or study  Know-how or familiarity with how to do something  Information that is contextual, relevant, and actionable  Accumulation of facts, procedural rules or heuristics  Knowledge is INFORMATION IN ACTION  Actionable (relevant) information available in the right format, at

the right time, and at the right place for decision making

(TIWANA2000)
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Knowledge
 Fact – statement of some element of truth about a subject matter or a domain.

Example: milk is white, sun rises in east.
 Heuristics – rule of thumb based on years of experience.

Example: strike on independence day in our state
 Intelligence – capacity to acquire, improve and apply knowledge.

 Experience – what we have done and what has happened in past in a specific

area of work
 Common sense – natural ability to sense, judge or perceive situations ; grows

stronger over time.
 Memory – ability to store and retrieve relevant experience at will, is part of

intelligence.
 Learning – 5/12/2010 10:21:05 PM is knowledge

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Knowledge Types
 Explicit knowledge

– Objective, rational, technical
– Policies, goals, strategies, papers, reports – Codified – Leaky knowledge
 Tacit knowledge

– Subjective, experiential learning – Highly personalized
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Knowledge Types
 Shallow (surface) knowledge

– Indicates minimal understanding of the problem area Example – If u don‘t have petrol in your car, the car wont start

 Deep knowledge

– Indicates maximal understanding of the problem area Example – why don‘t a car starts when it has no petrol
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(need to know variousRafiA Khan components of car) Rafi A Khan

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Knowledge Types

– Descriptive – data, information
– Procedural – how to do something – Reasoning – policies or rules

– Linguistic – vocabulary or grammar – Presentation – graphing, messaging

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Data, Information and Knowledge

INFORMATION Processed

Relevant and actionable

DATA

KNOWLEDGE

Relevant and actionable data

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Knowledge Management (KM)
 A process of capturing, transformation, and diffusion of

knowledge throughout an enterprise so that it can be
shared and thus REUSED

 Helps organizations find, select, organize, disseminate,

and transfer important information and expertise

 Transforms data / information into actionable knowledge
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KM Objectives

 Create knowledge repositories
 Improve knowledge access

 Enhance the knowledge environment
 Manage knowledge as an asset

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KMS Manage
 Knowledge creation through learning

 Knowledge capture
 Knowledge sharing and communication through

collaboration
 Knowledge access  Knowledge use and reuse

 Knowledge archiving
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Cyclic Model of KM

 Create knowledge  Capture knowledge

 Refine knowledge  Store knowledge  Manage knowledge
 Disseminate knowledge
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Cyclic Model of KM

Create Knowledge

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Cyclic Model of KM

Create Knowledge

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Cyclic Model of KM
Capture Knowledge

Create Knowledge

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Cyclic Model of KM
Capture Knowledge

Create Knowledge

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Cyclic Model of KM
Capture Knowledge

Create Knowledge

Refine Knowledge

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Cyclic Model of KM
Capture Knowledge

Create Knowledge

Refine Knowledge

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Cyclic Model of KM
Capture Knowledge

Create Knowledge

Refine Knowledge

Store Knowledge

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Cyclic Model of KM
Capture Knowledge

Create Knowledge

Refine Knowledge

Store Knowledge

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Cyclic Model of KM
Capture Knowledge

Create Knowledge

Refine Knowledge

Store Knowledge

Manage Knowledge
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Cyclic Model of KM
Capture Knowledge

Create Knowledge

Refine Knowledge

Store Knowledge

Manage Knowledge
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Cyclic Model of KM
Capture Knowledge

Create Knowledge

Refine Knowledge

Disseminate Knowledge

Store Knowledge

Manage Knowledge
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Cyclic Model of KM
Capture Knowledge

Create Knowledge

Refine Knowledge

Disseminate Knowledge

Store Knowledge

Manage Knowledge
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Why Adopt KM
    

Cost savings Better performance Demonstrated success Share Best Practices Competitive Advantage

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KM Methods, Technologies, and Tools

        

Email or messaging Document management Search engines Enterprise information portal Data warehouse Groupware Workflow management Web-based training Others

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5/12/2010

Knowledge Acquisition Techniques
The Business School
University A KhanKashmir of Rafi
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Knowledge Acquisition

The following are main methods of knowledge acquisition : • Production Rule
• Frames

• Semantic Network

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Production Rules

IF-THEN
 Independent part, combined with other pieces, to produce

better result
 Model of human behavior

 Examples

– IF condition, THEN conclusion – Conclusion, IF condition – If condition, THEN conclusion1 (OR) ELSE conclusion2
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Frames
 Organized structure of knowledge  Put related knowledge in one area called frame  A frame consists of slots representing a part of

knowledge
 Each slot has a value in the form of data,

information, process and rules
 Frame can be related to other frames

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Frames(Engine Overheating)
Slot : Symptoms Value

Temp More than 80 deg Water Boiling Speed Retardation

Slot : Inspection Value
Check Water Level Oil in Engine Carburetor Slot : Treatment Value

Stop Engine & Drain Water Start Engine & pour cold Water Increase oil level

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Adjust Carburetor

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Semantic Networks

 Graphical

depictions
 Nodes and links

connecting nodes
 Node represents an

Entity & link
represents
Association

 Hierarchical
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relationships

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Inferencing
 Inferencing means deriving a conclusion based on statements

that only imply that conclusion.
 Every rule in knowledge base can be checked to see whether

its premise (principle) or conclusion can be satisfied by

previously made assertions.
 This process can be done in two directions :

–Forward –Backward
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Inference Techniques

Forward Chaining
Forward chaining is a data-driven approach . We start from available information as it becomes available or from a basic idea, and then we try to draw conclusions.

Backward chaining
Backward chaining is a goal-driven approach in which you start from an
expectation of what is going to happen (hypothesis) and then seek evidence that supports (or contradicts) your expectation.

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Example
Investment Decision : Whether to invest in IBM Stocks
The following variables are used: – A= Have Rs.10,000 – B= Younger than 30 – C= Education at college level – D= Annual income of atleast Rs.40,000 – E= Invest in securities – F= Invest in growth stocks – G= Invest in IBM stock (the potential goal) The facts: we assume that an investor has Rs.10,000(that A is true) and that she is 25 years old (B is true). She would like advice on investing in IBM stock(yes or no for the goal).
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Example
The Rules:Our knowledge base includes the following five rules:
 R1: IF a person has Rs10,000 to invest and has a college degree THEN she should

invest in securities
 R2: IF a persons annual income is atleast Rs40,000 to invest and has a college

degree THEN she should invest in growth stocks
 R3: IF a person is < 30 and is investing in securities THEN she should invest in

growth stocks
 R4: IF a person is < 30 and >22 THEN she has a college degree  R5:IF a person wants to invest in growth stocks then the stock should be IBM

– R1: – R2: – R3: – R4: – R5:
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IF A and C, THEN E IF D and C,THEN F IF B and E, THEN F IF B, THEN C IF F, THEN G Rafi A Khan Rafi A Khan

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Forward Chaining

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Backward Chaining

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The End
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Experts
 Experts

– Have special knowledge, judgment, and experience – Can apply these to solve problems • Higher performance level than average person
• Faster Solutions • Recognize Patterns
 Expertise

– Task specific knowledge of experts
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Expert System

Expert Systems: a computer application that employs a set of rules based
on human knowledge to solve problems that require human expertise
 Information systems that solve problems by capturing knowledge for a

very specific and limited domain of human expertise are called expert

systems
– For example, diagnosing a cars ignition system, classifying biological specimen

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Common Expert System Architecture
User

User Interface

Inference Engine

Knowledge Base

User Environment
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KBES

Knowledge based expert system (KBES) has three basic

components:
• Knowledge base • User control mechanism • Inference Mechanism

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User Interface
 Design of the UI focuses on human concerns such as ease of use,

reliability and reduction of fatigue
 Design should allow for a variety of methods of interaction

(input, control and query)
 Mechanisms include touch screen, keypad, light pens, voice

command, hot keys

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Knowledge Base
 Contains the domain-specific knowledge acquired from the

domain experts
 Can consist of all the theoretical foundations, facts, judgments,

rules, formulas, intuitions and experience
 The success of an ES relies on the completeness and accuracy of

its knowledge base

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Inference Engine

 Here, the knowledge is put to use to produce solutions

 Interprets the knowledge available and performs logical

deductions in a given situation.
 It is a strategy used to search through rule base

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Applications of Expert Systems
 DENDRAL project

– Applied knowledge or rule-based reasoning commands

– Deduced likely molecular structure of compounds
 MYCIN

– Rule-based system for diagnosing bacterial infections
 XCON

– Rule-based system to determine optimal systems configuration
 Credit analysis

– Ruled-based systems for commercial lenders
 Pension fund adviser
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Applications
 Finance

– Insurance evaluation, credit analysis, tax planning, financial planning and reporting, performance evaluation
 Data processing

– Systems planning, equipment maintenance, vendor evaluation, network management
 Marketing

– Customer-relationship management, market analysis, product planning
 Human resources

– HR planning, performance evaluation, scheduling, pension management, legal advising
 Manufacturing

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Benefits of Expert Systems
 Increased outputs  Increased productivity  Decreased decision-making time  Increased process and product quality  Reduced downtime  Capture of scarce expertise  Flexibility  Ease of complex equipment operation  Elimination of expensive monitoring equipment  Operation in hazardous environments  Access to knowledge and help desks
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Benefits of Expert Systems
 Ability to work with incomplete, imprecise, uncertain data  Provides training  Enhanced problem solving and decision-making  Rapid feedback  Facilitate communications  Reliable decision quality  Ability to solve complex problems  Ease of knowledge transfer to remote locations
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Limitations
 Knowledge not always readily available  Difficult to extract expertise from humans  Lack of end-user trust  Knowledge subject to biases  Systems may not be able to arrive at conclusions

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The End
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5/12/2010

The Data Warehouse
Department of Management Studies
University A Khan Kashmir Rafi of
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Objective
 How operational data and decision support data differ  What a data warehouse is, how data for it are prepared, and how it is

implemented
 What data mining is and what role it plays in decision support  What online analytical processing (OLAP) is

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The Need for Data Analysis
 Managers must be able to track daily transactions to evaluate how the

business is performing
 By tapping into operational database, management can develop strategies

to meet organizational goals
 Data analysis can provide information about short-term tactical

evaluations and strategies

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Operational Data vs. Decision Support Data
 Operational Data

– Mostly stored in relational database – Optimized to support transactions representing daily operations
 DSS Data

– Give tactical and strategic business meaning to operational data – Differs from operational data in following three main areas:

• Time span
• Granularity • Dimensionality

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Operational Data vs. Decision Support Data

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Operational Data vs. Decision Support Data

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The Data Warehouse
 Integrated, subject-oriented, time-variant, nonvolatile collection of data

that provides support for decision making
 Usually a read-only database optimized for data analysis and query

processing
 Requires time, money, and considerable managerial effort to create

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Characteristics of a Data Warehouse
• Subject orientation: data is organized based on how the users refer to it. • Integrated: all inconsistencies regarding naming convention and value representations are removed. • Non-volatile: data is stored in read-only format and do not change over time.

• Time Variant: data are not current but normally time-series.
• Summarized: operational data are mapped into a decision-usable format. • Large Volume: time-series datasets are normally quite large. • Not Normalized: DW data can, and often is, redundant. • Metadata: data about data is stored. • Data Sources: internal and external unintegrated operational systems.
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The Data Warehouse (continued)

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The Data Warehouse (continued)

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Dependent Data Mart Extract/Summarize Data
External Data
OLAP tools

ETL Routine
Operational Database(s)
(Extract/Transform/Load)

Data Warehouse

Data Mining Tools

Independent Data Mart

Ad-hoc Queries

Reporting Tools

Fig. Data warehouse process model
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Monitoring/

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Data Warehousing Benefits

   

Increase in knowledge worker productivity Supports all decision makers‘ data requirements Provide ready access to critical data Insulates operation databases from adhoc processing Provides high-level summary information Provides drill down capabilities Yields – Improved business knowledge – Competitive advantage – Enhances customer service and satisfaction – Facilitates decision making – Help streamline business processes
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The Data Mart
 Data mart

– Small, single-subject data warehouse subset – Each is more manageable data set than data warehouse – Provides decision support to small group of people – Typically lower cost and lower implementation time than data warehouse

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Twelve Rules that Define a Data Warehouse
 Data warehouse and operational environments are separated  Data warehouse data are integrated  Data warehouse contains historical data over long time horizon  Data warehouse data are snapshot data captured at given point in time  Data warehouse data are subject oriented

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Twelve Rules that Define a Data Warehouse (continued)
 Data warehouse data are mainly read-only with periodic batch updates

from operational data – No online updates allowed
 Data warehouse development life cycle differs from classical systems

development
 Data warehouse contains data with several levels of detail: current detail

data, old detail data, lightly summarized data, and highly summarized data
 Data warehouse environment is characterized by read-only transactions to

very large data sets
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Twelve Rules that Define a Data Warehouse (continued)
 Data warehouse environment has system that traces data sources,

transformations, and storage
 Data warehouse‘s metadata are critical component of this environment  Data warehouse contains a mechanism for resource usage that enforces

optimal use of data by end users

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OLAP Activities
   

Generating queries Requesting ad hoc reports Conducting statistical and other analyses Developing multimedia applications

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Online Analytical Processing
 Advanced data analysis environment that supports decision making,

business modeling, and operations research
 OLAP systems share four main characteristics:

– Use multidimensional data analysis techniques – Provide advanced database support – Provide easy-to-use end-user interfaces – Support client/server architecture

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Multidimensional Data Analysis Techniques
 Data are processed and viewed as part of a multidimensional structure  Particularly attractive to business decision makers

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OLTP vs OLAP

On-Line Transaction Processing
• Time-critical • In-place data update

On-Line Analytical Processing
• Small delays tolerable • Append only

• Current data
• Functional transaction focus • Store details only • Only keeps company internal data

• Historical and current data
• Reporting (information delivery) focus • Store summary + details (e.g. counts and aggregates) • Warehouse also keeps external data

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Multidimensional Data Analysis Techniques

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Multidimensional Data Analysis Techniques (continued)

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OLAP Architecture

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OLAP Architecture (continued)

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OLAP Architecture (continued)
 Designed to use both operational and data warehouse data  Defined as an ―advanced data analysis environment that supports decision

making, business modeling, and an operation‘s research activities‖ complementary environments

 In most implementations, data warehouse and OLAP are interrelated and

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Multi Dimensional Data

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Multi Dimensional Data

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Drill Down & Roll Up

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Drill Down & Roll Up

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Fresh Produce Tinned Food
Toiletries

60 30 50

82 84 15

63 79 46

59 64 73

July August Sept

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Fresh Produce Tinned Food
Toiletries

60 30 50

82 84 15

63 79 46

59 64 73

July August Sept

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Fresh Produce Tinned Food
Toiletries

60 30 50

82 84 15

63 79 46

59 64 73

July August Sept

Fruit Fresh Produce

30

July

Vegetables 15 15 Dairy

August Sept

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Fresh Produce Tinned Food
Toiletries

60 30 50

82 84 15

63 79 46

59 64 73

July August Sept

30 Fruit Fresh Produce Vegetables 15 15 Dairy

July

August Sept

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Fresh Produce Tinned Food
Toiletries

60 30 50

82 84 15

63 79 46

59 64 73

July August Sept

30 Fruit Fresh Produce Vegetables 15 15 Dairy

July

August Sept

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Fresh Produce Tinned Food
Toiletries

60 30 50

82 84 15

63 79 46

59 64 73

July August Sept

30 Fruit Fresh Produce Vegetables 15 15 Dairy

July

August Sept

2

4

1

1

3 2
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3 1

4 3

2 4

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Fresh Produce Tinned Food
Toiletries

60 30 50

82 84 15

63 79 46

59 64 73

July August Sept

30 Fruit Fresh Produce Vegetables 15 15 Dairy

July

August Sept

Apples Fruits Mangoes Oranges

2

4

1

1

3 2

3 1

4 3

2 4

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Some Tools in the Marketplace
• Data Warehousing • Microsoft SQL Server 2000 Data Transformation Service • Oracle 9i Warehouse Builder • IBM Red Brick Warehouse, and DB2 • NCR/Teradata • SAS Data Warehousing (Warehouse Administrator)
• OLAP • Cognos PowerPlay • Business Objects Analytics • Microstrategy 7i • Microsoft SQL Server 2000 Analysis Service + MDX query language for decision support + Microsoft Data Analyzer • Oracle 9i OLAP Data Warehouse, OLAP, and Data Mining solutions are sometimes listed under the title ‗Business Intelligence‘ (BI) software.
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Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD)

Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) is the automated discovery of patterns and relationships in large databases.

Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) as it is also known, is the nontrivial extraction of implicit, previously unknown, and potentially useful information from data.

KDD is the search for relationships and global patterns that exist in large databases but are `hidden' among the vast amount of data, such as a relationship between patient data and their medical diagnosis. These relationships represent valuable knowledge about the database and the objects in the database

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Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD)
 Selection:

Extraction of the data from a database that is relevant to the data mining analysis.
 Preprocessing:

Ensuring that values have a uniform meaning, eliminating missing values in the data, and inaccurate (inconsistent) data.
 Data Transformation:

Converting the data into a two-dimensional table and eliminating unwanted fields so the results are valid.
 Data mining:

The extraction of patterns from the data using by an appropriate set of algorithms.
 Interpretation:

The transformation of the identified patterns into knowledge
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KDD PROCESS

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Trends leading to Data Flood
 More data is generated:

– Bank, telecom, other business transactions ... – Scientific data: astronomy, biology, etc – Web, text, and e-commerce

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Big Data Examples
 Europe's Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) has 16 telescopes, each

of which produces 1 Gigabit/second of astronomical data over a 25-day observation session – storage and analysis a big problem
 AT&T handles billions of calls per day

– so much data, it cannot be all stored -- analysis has to be done ―on the fly‖, on streaming data

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Largest databases in 2003
 Commercial databases:

– Winter Corp. 2003 Survey: France Telecom has largest decision-support DB, ~30TB; AT&T ~ 26 TB
 Web

– Alexa internet archive: 7 years of data, 500 TB – Google searches 4+ Billion pages, many hundreds TB – IBM WebFountain, 160 TB (2003) – Internet Archive (www.archive.org),~ 300 TB

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From terabytes to exabytes to …
 UC Berkeley 2003 estimate: 5 exabytes (5 million terabytes) of new data

was created in 2002.
www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info-2003/

 US produces ~40% of new stored data worldwide  2006 estimate: 161 exabytes (IDC study) – www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2007-03-05-data_N.htm  2010 projection: 988 exabytes

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Largest Databases in 2005

Winter Corp. 2005 Commercial Database Survey:

1.

Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology ,
222 TB

2.

Yahoo ~ 100 TB (Largest Data

Warehouse)
www.wintercorp.com/VLDB/2005_TopTen_Survey/TopTenWinners_2005.asp

3.

AT&T ~ 94 TB

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Data Growth

In 2 years, the size of the largest database TRIPLED!

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Data Growth Rate
 Twice as much information was created in 2002 as in 1999 (~30% growth

rate)
 Other growth rate estimates even higher  Very little data will ever be looked at by a human

Knowledge Discovery is NEEDED to make sense and use of data.

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Machine Learning / Data Mining Application areas
 Science

– astronomy, bioinformatics, drug discovery, …
 Business

– CRM (Customer Relationship management), fraud detection, e-commerce,
manufacturing, sports/entertainment, telecom, targeted marketing, health care,


 Web:

– search engines, advertising, web and text mining, …
 Government

– surveillance, crime detection, profiling tax cheaters, …

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Application Areas

What do you think are some of the most important and widespread business applications of Data Mining?

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Data Mining for Customer Modeling
 Customer Tasks:

– attrition prediction – targeted marketing: • cross-sell, customer acquisition – credit-risk – fraud detection
 Industries

– banking, telecom, retail sales, …

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Customer Attrition: Case Study

 Situation: Attrition rate at for mobile phone customers is around

25-30% a year!

 With this in mind, what is our task?

– Assume we have customer information for the past N months.

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Customer Attrition: Case Study

Task:
 Predict who is likely to attrite next month.

 Estimate customer value and what is the cost-effective offer to

be made to this customer.

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Customer Attrition Results
 Verizon Wireless built a customer data warehouse  Identified potential attires  Developed multiple, regional models  Targeted customers with high propensity to accept the offer  Reduced attrition rate from over 2%/month to under 1.5%/month (huge

impact, with >30 M subscribers)

(Reported in 2003)

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Assessing Credit Risk: Case Study
 Situation: Person applies for a loan  Task: Should a bank approve the loan?  Note: People who have the best credit don‘t need the loans, and people

with worst credit are not likely to repay. Bank‘s best customers are in the middle

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Credit Risk - Results
 Banks develop credit models using variety of machine learning methods.  Mortgage and credit card proliferation are the results of being able to

successfully predict if a person is likely to default on a loan
 Widely deployed in many countries

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e-commerce
 A person buys a book (product) at Amazon.com

What is the task?

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Successful e-commerce – Case Study
 Task: Recommend other books (products) this person is likely to buy  Amazon does clustering based on books bought:

– customers who bought ―Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining‖, also bought ―Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques with Java Implementations‖
 Recommendation program is quite successful

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Security and Fraud Detection - Case Study
 Credit Card Fraud Detection  Detection of Money laundering

– FAIS (US Treasury)
 Securities Fraud

– NASDAQ KDD system
 Phone fraud

– AT&T, Bell Atlantic, British Telecom/MCI
 Bio-terrorism detection at Salt Lake Olympics 2002

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Data Mining and Privacy
 in 2006, NSA (National Security Agency) was reported to be mining years

of call info, to identify terrorism networks
 Social network analysis has a potential to find networks  Invasion of privacy – do you mind if your call information is in a gov

database?
 What if NSA program finds one real suspect for 1,000 false leads ?

1,000,000 false leads?

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Related Fields

Machine Learning

Visualization

Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery

Statistics

Databases

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Statistics, Machine Learning and Data Mining
Statistics: – more theory-based – more focused on testing hypotheses  Machine learning – more heuristic(experience-based techniques that help in problem solving, learning and discovery) – focused on improving performance of a learning agent – also looks at real-time learning and robotics – areas not part of data mining  Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery – integrates theory and heuristics – focus on the entire process of knowledge discovery, including data cleaning, learning, and integration and visualization of results  Distinctions are fuzzy

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Data mining
Many Definitions… – A short one… Search for Valuable Information in Large Volumes of Data.

– A long one… Exploration & Analysis, by Automatic or Semi-Automatic Means, of Large Quantities of Data in order to Discover Meaningful Patterns & Rules.

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Data Mining
 Data Mining is the step in the process of knowledge discovery in

databases, that inputs predominantly cleaned, transformed data, searches the data using algorithms, and outputs patterns and relationships to the interpretation/evaluation step of the KDD
 Data mining is a process that uses a variety of data analysis tools to

discover patterns and relationships in data that may be used to make valid

predictions.

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Data Mining
 Data Mining constitutes one step in the KDD process.  The transformed data is used in the data mining step. It is in this step that

the actual search for patterns of interest is performed.
 The appropriate data mining algorithm (linear/logistic regression, neural

networks, association rules, etc.) for the data mining task (classification, database segmentation, rule generation, etc) are applied.
 It is necessary to remove redundant and irrelevant patterns from the set of

useful patterns. Once a set of good patterns have been discovered, they then have to be reported to the end user. This can be done can be done

textually, by way of reports or using visualizations such as graphs, spreadsheets, diagrams, etc.
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Data Mining
 Data mining tools do the following:

– Analyze data – Uncover problems or opportunities hidden in data relationships – Form computer models based on their findings – Use models to predict business behavior
 Require minimal end-user intervention

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Data Mining (continued)

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Major Data Mining Tasks
 Classification:  Clustering:  Associations:  Visualization:  Summarization:  Estimation:  Link Analysis:  …

predicting an item class finding clusters in data e.g. A & B & C occur frequently to facilitate human discovery describing a group

 Deviation Detection: finding changes

predicting a continuous value
finding relationships

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Data Mining Tasks: Classification Learn a method for predicting the instance class from pre-labeled (classified) instances
Many approaches: Statistics, Decision Trees, Neural Networks, ...

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Data Mining Tasks: Clustering Find “natural” grouping of instances given un-labeled data

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Data Mining (continued)

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We want to know ...
 Given a database of 100,000 names, which persons are the least likely to

default on their credit cards?
 Which types of transactions are likely to be fraudulent given the

demographics and transactional history of a particular customer?
 If I raise the price of my product by Rs. 2, what is the effect on my ROI?  If I offer only 2,500 airline miles as an incentive to purchase rather than

5,000, how many lost responses will result?
 If I emphasize ease-of-use of the product as opposed to its technical

capabilities, what will be the net effect on my revenues?
 Which of my customers are likely to be the most loyal?

Data Mining helps extract such information
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Major Data Mining Characteristics and Objectives

   

Data are often buried deep Client/server architecture Sophisticated new tools--including advanced visualization tools End-user miner empowered by data drills and other power query tools with

little or no programming skills
  

Often involves finding unexpected results Tools are easily combined with spreadsheets, etc.

Parallel processing for data mining

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Difference between OLAP & Data Minig
OLAP is part of the spectrum of decision support tools. Traditional query and report tools describe what is in a database. OLAP goes further; it‘s used to answer why certain things are true. The user forms a hypothesis about a relationship and verifies it with a series of queries against the data. For example, an analyst might want to determine the factors that lead to loan defaults. He or she might initially hypothesize that people with low incomes are bad credit risks and analyze the database with OLAP to verify (or disprove) this assumption. If that hypothesis were not borne out by the data, the analyst might then look at high debt as the determinant of risk. If the data did not support this guess either, he or she might then try debt and income together as the best predictor of bad credit risks.

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Difference between OLAP & Dataminig
OLAP analysis is essentially a deductive process. The OLAP analyst generates a series of hypothetical patterns and

relationships and uses queries against the database to verify them or disprove them.
It becomes much more difficult and time-consuming to find a good

hypothesis, when the number of variables being analyzed is in the dozens or even hundreds? and analyze the database with OLAP to verify or disprove it.

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Difference between OLAP & Dataminig
Data mining , rather than verify hypothetical patterns, it uses the data itself to uncover such patterns. It is essentially an inductive process. For example, suppose the analyst who wanted to identify the risk factors for loan default were to use a data mining tool. The data mining tool might discover that people with high debt and low incomes were bad credit risks (as above), but it might go further and also discover a pattern the analyst did not

think to try, such as that age is also a determinant of risk.

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Data mining Applications
 Many organizations are using data mining to help manage all phases of the

customer life cycle, including acquiring new customers, increasing revenue from existing customers, and retaining good customers.
 Telecommunications and credit card companies are two of the leaders in

applying data mining to detect fraudulent use of their services.
 Insurance companies and stock exchanges are also interested in applying

this technology to reduce fraud.

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Data mining Applications
Retail/Marketing
 Identify buying patterns from customers  Find associations among customer demographic characteristics  Predict response to mailing campaigns  Market basket analysis

 Retailers are making more use of data mining to decide which products to

stock in particular stores (and even how to place them within a store), as well as to assess the effectiveness of promotions and coupons.

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Data mining Applications
Medicine
 Characterise patient behaviour to predict office visits  Identify successful medical therapies for different illnesses  Medical applications are another fruitful area: data mining can be used to

predict the effectiveness of surgical procedures, medical tests or medications.
 Pharmaceutical firms are mining large databases of chemical compounds

and of genetic material to discover substances that might be candidates for development as agents for the treatments of disease.

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Data mining Applications
Banking
 Detect patterns of fraudulent credit card use  Identify `loyal' customers  Predict customers likely to change their credit card affiliation  Determine credit card spending by customer groups  Find hidden correlations between different financial indicators  Identify stock trading rules from historical market data  Companies active in the financial markets use data mining to determine

market and industry characteristics as well as to predict individual company and stock performance.
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Data mining Applications
Insurance and Health Care
 Claims analysis - i.e which medical procedures are claimed together  Predict which customers will buy new policies  Identify behaviour patterns of risky customers  Identify fraudulent behaviour

Transportation
 Determine the distribution schedules among outlets  Analyse loading patterns  Analyse loading patterns
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Data Mining (continued)

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Data Mining (continued)

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Systems Development Life Cycle

 Four phases

– Planning – Analysis – Design
– Implementation
 Cyclical  Can return to other phases  Waterfall model
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Tools
 Computer-aided software design tools

– CASE tools- Oracle 9i developer suite, Rational rose, Paradigm Plus
 RAD design tools- Sybase power Designer. Oracle Internet

Development Suite, Rational RequisitePro

 Code debugging methods  Testing and quality assurance tools - Red Views WebLoad,

Load Runner, Rational RequisitePro, SilkPerformer

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Successful Project Management

 Define requirements

 Manage change
 Get support from upper management  Establish timelines, milestones, and budgets based on realistic

goals
 Involve users
 Document everything

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Implementation Failures
 Lack of stakeholder involvement  Incomplete requirements  Unrealistic expectations  Project champion leaves  Lack of skill or expertise  Inadequate human resources  New technologies

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Project Management Tools
 Project management software can allow:

– Collaboration among disparate teams – Resource and program management – Portfolio management – Web enabled – Analyses of project data S/W Examples : Microsoft project, PlanView, ActiveProject

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Alternative Development Methodologies
 Parallel Development

– Multiple development on separate systems (Design & Implementation Phases) – Database, Model base, UI and Knowledge can be developed in parallel  RAD – Quick development allowing fast, but limited functionality – Methods of RAD • Phased development – Sequential serial development (Break system into Pieces) • Prototyping ( Analysis, Design & Implementation repeatedly) – Rapid development of portions of projects for user input and modification – Small working model or may become functional part of final system • Throwaway prototyping – Pilot test or simple development platforms
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Friday, July 18, 2008

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Friday, July 18, 2008

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Tools
 Computer-aided software design tools

– CASE tools - Oracle 9i developer suite, Rational rose, Paradigm Plus
 RAD design tools- Sybase power Designer. Oracle Internet Development

Suite, Rational RequisitePro
 Code debugging methods  Testing and quality assurance tools - Red Views WebLoad, Load Runner,

Rational RequisitePro, SilkPerformer

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DSS Prototyping
 Short steps

– Planning – Analysis – Design

– Prototype
 Immediate user feedback  Iterative

– In development of prototype

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Successful Project Management

 Define requirements

 Manage change
 Get support from upper management  Establish timelines, milestones, and budgets based on realistic

goals
 Involve users
 Document everything

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Implementation Failures
 Lack of stakeholder involvement  Incomplete requirements  Unrealistic expectations  Project champion leaves  Lack of skill or expertise  Inadequate human resources  New technologies

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Project Management Tools
 Project management software can allow:

– Collaboration among disparate teams – Resource and program management – Portfolio management – Web enabled – Analyses of project data S/W Examples : Microsoft project, PlanView, ActiveProject

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Agile Development
 Rapid prototyping used for rapidly changing requirements  Used for:

– Unclear or rapidly changing requirements

– Speedy development
 Heavy user input  Incremental delivery with short time frames  Tend to have integration problems

Example : Extreme Programming (XP), Scrum, Crystal.

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DSS Prototyping
 Advantages  Disadvantages

– User and management involvement – Short user-reaction time(Feedback from user) – Short intervals between iterations

– Changing requirements – May not have thorough understanding of benefits and costs – Poorly tested – Dependencies, security, and safety may be ignored

– Low cost & Short development time
– Improved user understanding of system

– High uncertainty – Problem may get lost
– Reduction in quality – Higher costs due to multiple productions

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Change Management
 Crucial to DSS  People resistant to change  Examine cause of change  May require organizational culture shift  Lewin-Schein change theory steps

– Unfreeze • Create awareness of need for change • People support what they help create – Move • Develop new methods and behaviors • Create and maintain momentum – Refreeze • Reinforce desired changes • Establish stable environment
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DSS Technology Levels
DSS primary tools

–Fundamental elements •Programming languages, graphics, editors, query systems
DSS generator (engine)

–Integrated software package for building specific DSS •Modeling, report generation, graphics, risk analysis •These range from spreadsheets such as Excel—perhaps with some addins or a more sophisticated generator such as MicroStrategy‘s DSS Architect.
Specific DSS

–For some problem types there may be a commercially available package that can be acquired and customized
DSS primary tools are used to construct integrated tools that are used to

construct specific tools

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DSS
 Hardware

– PCs to multiprocessor mainframes
 Software

– Involves multiple criteria
– Develop in house, outsource, or buy off the shelf – Off the shelf software rapidly updated; many on market – Prices fluctuate – Different tools available
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DSS  Team developed DSS requires substantial effort to build and manage  End user developed DSS – Decision-makers and knowledge workers develop to solve problems or enhance productivity • Advantages – Short delivery time – User requirements specifications are eliminated – Reduced implementation problems – Low costs • Risks – Quality may be low – May have lack of documentation – Security risks may increase
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DSS
 Microstrategy 8  Hyperion System 9 BI+  Business Object XI  Microsoft Biztalk server2004  IBM Websphere Commerce Suite  Oracle Daily Business Intelligence(DBI)

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