1. Input : Number of New Components bought (number) Season for sales taken into consideration (season) Sales Condition (sales) Output : Wastage of Components (wastage) IF season == Poor Summers AND sales == Low Sales IF number == 0 THEN wastage = 0; END-IF IF number == 500 THEN wastage = 20; END-IF IF number == 1000 THEN wastage = 20; END-IF IF number == 1500 THEN wastage = 30; END-IF ELSE IF season == Fair Summers AND sales == Reasonable Sales IF number == 0 THEN wastage = 15; END-IF IF number == 500 THEN wastage = 0; END-IF IF number == 1000 THEN wastage =15; END-IF IF number == 1500 THEN wastage = 20; END-IF ELSE IF season == Good Summers AND sales == Good Sales IF number == 0 THEN wastage = 20; END-IF IF number == 500 THEN wastage = 20; END-IF IF number == 1000 THEN wastage = 0; END-IF IF number == 1500 THEN wastage = 0; END-IF ELSE IF season == Very Good Summers AND sales == Very High Sales IF number == 0 THEN wastage = 30; END-IF IF number == 500 THEN wastage = 25; END-IF IF number == 1000 THEN wastage = 15; END-IF IF number == 1500 THEN wastage = 0; END-IF END-IF

In order to Design a Decision Tree. resource costs. The terminal edges (leaves) represent actions. Decision Table Action / Condition Retail Customer Insufficient Sufficient Inventory Inventory Y N Wholesale Customer Insufficient Sufficient Inventory Inventory Y N Ordered Ordered Specified Below Quantity Specified Quantity Y N Have Sales Tax Have No Sales Exception Tax Exception Form Form Y N Payment Payment On Received Delivery Y N Back Order Required Discount Allowed N Sales Tax Levied Payment Received Y Y Payment On Delivery N Bill Shipped 3.It employs a tree structure that show conditions and actions within a problem. Decision Trees are an alternative to Decision Tables. A node is a decision point where a condition is evaluated. Decision Trees A decision tree is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences. It consists of a directed acyclic graph (rooted tree) in which the non-terminal edges represent a set of conditions evaluated sequentially from the root. Decision trees are a useful tool for expressing complex decision variables in a format conducive to human visualization. the analyst needs to identify the.It is easier to understand and there is no need for special training. Decisions in consideration b. including chance event outcomes. a. Decision Tree Structure incorporates.2. and utility. Uncertain Events . Root of tree -> name of process Nodes -> conditions Leaves -> actions to be performed A decision tree is a graphic tool that represents conditions and their resulting actions.

But then again. in case of negative results. . Chances of outcomes based on Decision Taken and Events occurred d. 20% it would be successful It would be appropriate for the Analyst to either drill the well up till 20 feet. since it has 70% chances of success. and simply buy water for Rs 15000. it would be better to buy water than spending Rs 10000 and not succeeding. need not drill further. And incase the analyst advises not to take any chances. since there are more chances of failure than success. Outcomes finally achieved 5. hence spending Rs 15000 further to buy water.c. Well Digging 70% Successful Cost = Rs 10000 Investment 20% Successful 80% Not Successful Cost = Rs 12500 Investment Cost = Rs 12500 + Rs 15000 To Buy Water Cost = Rs 10000 + Rs 15000 To Buy Water Cost = Rs 15000 To Buy Water Drill Well 20 mtr 30% Not Successful A Drill Further To 25 mtr 2 1 Do Not Drill Further Do Not Drill Well A 1 2 Drill Well or Not To Drill Well Chances are that some might drill further to 25 mtr and some might not Chances are that drilling further to 25 mtr.

6. the main external or other events that introduce uncertainty. . Decision Tree Organization A decision making tree is essentially a diagram that represents. in a specially organized way. the decisions. Decision Table for Upgrading or Shutting Down the Business Unit. as well as possible outcomes of all those decisions and events. Here is a schematic example that illustrates the basic elements of decision trees. Shutdown and Sell the Site Returns Over the Period of Ten Years Sold For Rs 15 Million Continue as Before Up gradation OF Business Deluxe Type Standard Type Good Poor Good Poor Results Results Results Results Rs 40 Rs 20 Rs 25 Rs 10 Million Million Million Million Rs 2 Million in the next year and reducing by 10% every consecutive year Positive Test Result 85% 15% Deluxe Chances of Good Response Chances of Poor Response Up gradation Suggested Negative Test Result 10% 90% Standard 7.

If you have more than one decision point. In particular. Write down above each such line in the decision tree your best guesses for probabilities (for example. Each path that can be followed along the decision tree. leads to some specific outcome. Circles show various circumstances that have uncertain outcomes (For example.8 ) of those different outcomes. The lines that come out of each square on its right show all the available distinct options that can be selected at that decision analysis point. you can calculate the overall desirability of that choice. Do the same with the remaining squares. Ideally. you will assign each end outcome a quantitative measure of the overall total benefit you will receive from that outcome (you can express it as a perceived monetary value). . weighted by the probabilities of the corresponding paths. for each choice that you control (at the decision points shown by squares). The lines that come out of each circle denote possible outcomes of that uncontrollable circumstance. working your way to the left (to the first decision point in the sequence). Now you have a complete decision making tree with specific numbers for both the probabilities of the uncertain events and the benefit measures (desirability) of each end result. you need to do that calculation for the decisions that are at the latest stages first. This will show you the preferred choice (the one with the highest overall desirability). Identify the choice that gives the highest overall desirability and leave only that branch (removing the decision point). You need to describe those end results in terms of your main criteria for judging the results of your decisions.Squares represent decisions you can make. 80% or 0. Just sum the benefit measures of all the end outcomes that can be traced back to that choice (via one path or another). At this stage the tree can give you more specific recommendation on what would be your best choices. from left to right. some types of events that may affect you on a given path).

Accordingly if it is accepted as a whole lot or not.8. a. A Good lot being rejected based on Negative result of the Sample Testing . Whether the sample tested has turned out to be defective or not b. A defective lot being accepted based on Positive result of the sample Test b. the cost varies with large margin incase of. a. For instance. the cost of testing is based on. Decision Tree depicting the cost of Accepting or Rejecting a lot of Production 60% Chance 1 Defect Detected Defective Lot 40% Chance 10% Defective Cost = Rs 2000 Non Defective Lot 4% Defective Cost = Rs 2000 A Reject a Proper Set OF Lot Cost = Rs 4000 Defect Not Detected 2 Accept a Lot With Defective Lot Cost = Rs 22000 Accept a Proper Set of Lot Cost = Rs 2000 A 1 2 Testing of 2 sample pieces of the Entire Lot Accepting The Entire Lot Rejecting The Entire Lot As portrayed in the figure.

y Count = 0.Strength > Room[count]. Accept User Input Details b. To book rooms for lectures in FLORA School INPUT : Course Details Time Slot Student Strength Facilities Required Valid / Invalid Input Classroom Booked / Details OUPUT : a.Facilities == Room[count].Strength = 99. y AvailableRoom.Strength) AND (input. END-IF END-IF count = count + 1 AvailableRoom. Initialize y AvailableRoom.No Room.TimeSlot) AND (input.Strength THEN AvailableRoom.No = NULL .No == NULL Alert No Room Available Alert Room Number Available is : + AvailableRoom. IF THEN ELSE END-IF IF (input.Time Slot == Room[count].No = count.Status = Booked .Facilities) AND Room[count]. d.9. LOOP y y e. Validate Input y IF Input Details Incomplete THEN Throw Alert INVALID INPUT GO TO a END-IF c.Student Strength == Room[count].Status == Available THEN IF AvailableRoom.

10. Multiple Decision Tables Conditions Reservation Done Reservation Guaranteed Rooms Available Actions Allot Room in Hotel Allot Room in INN on Hotel Expenses Condition Initial Deposit With Credit Card Initial Deposit With Cash Final Payment With Credit Card Final Payment With Cash Actions Make Registration Card During Check-in Settle Whole Amount During Check-out Settle Remaining Amount During Check-out 1 2 3 X 4 X X X X 5 X 6 X X X N N Y N N N N Y Y N Y N 1 X 2 X 3 4 X X X X X X Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N Y Y .

Penalty Determining Process For Grapes Contract Condition Grapes do not exceed minimum required ripeness level Grapes are not disease or damage free Lot contains Material other than grapes Contract up for Renewal Actions Terminate Contract Consider for possible rejection Levy 20% Penalty Accept Lot 1 X 2 3 4 X 5 6 X 7 X 8 X X X X X X X X X X X N N Y Y N N Y Y N N Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y N Y Y N N N N N Y .11.

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