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Security Analysis of Attock refinery Limited

Security Analysis of Attock refinery Limited

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University Of Central Punjab (PCBA PICS)

Attock Refinery Ltd. (ATRL)
Final Project: Security Analysis (FIN5063)

Presented To: Prof.Hafiz Tauseef Ahmed
Presented By: Zubair Ayub Faisal Faiz Syed Sannan Ahmed L1F08MBBF2004 L1F08MBBF0028 L1F08MBBF2010

Submission Date: 17 June 2010 Semester: Spring (S10)

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Preface
All of the group members had a great experience while making this kind of project. It was very difficult for us to make such kind of project because we had never made any project in this form. There was a lot of burden on us while making this project due to less availability of time. But we start working on project with the name of Allah«And at the end of the project we realize that it will help us alot in our final thesis and our future career«

We were expected to make this project according to the terms and condition, which were communicated to us by our instructor, to avoid copying of any previously submitted project, give the professional look to the project by avoiding mistakes. And to insert the main outlines in the project..

With the help of Allah, all the group members have made a lot of effort to meet the above mentioned expectations. We did not copy the project or even a single page of project from the previously submitted project, work on all the outlines which were communicated to us. And presenting this project on Attock Refinery Ltd. for the first time in this university.

Zubair Ayub

Faisal Faiz

Syed Sannan Ahmed

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Acknowledgement
Thanks to Allah for providing us the strength, courage, direction and skills to learn, acquire knowledge and the ability to accept and meet challenges. Secondly we would like to thank our instructor Prof. Hafiz Tauseef Ahmed, who have helped in all those stages where we were facing difficulties & problems. And provided his assistance to us in the form of advice and suggestions. whose encouragement, guidance and support from the initial to the final level enabled us to develop an understanding of the project. I would also like to thank all those senior students who helped us and guide us where their help was needed. Lastly, I offer my regards and blessings to all of those who supported me in any respect during the completion of the project.

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Table of Contents
y y y y y y y y y y y Executive Summary««««««««««Pg 6 Introduction«««««««««««««.Pg 7 Economic Analysis««««««««««.Pg 8 Industry Analysis & Company Analysis«««« > Projections««««««««««««««.. >Calculation of Ratios««««««««««. >Calculation of expected Return««««««.. >Beta of Company................................................ >Calculation of CAPM««««««««««. Suggestions««««««««««««««« Bibliography«««««.....................................

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Executive Summary
One of the requirement of our project is to choose the company that should be listed in stock exchange of pakistan and to make complete fianacial analysis to get entire information about company performance and functionality.Attock Refinery Limited (Attock Refinery) is an energy company. It is engaged in refining of crude oil and supplying of refined petroleum products. It has its operations in Pakistan. The company is headquartered in Rawalpindi, Pakistan.. Attock Refinery was incorporated as a private limited company in order to take over the business of the Attock Oil Company Limited (AOC), which was into refining of crude oil and supplying of refined petroleum products."Attock Refinery Limited (Attock Refinery) is listed on all three stock exchange of pakistan like Karachi stock Exchange , Lahore stock exchange and Islamabad Stock exchange and it also has a good reputation in stock exchange market. The report provides a comprehensive insight into the company, including business structure, operations, executive biographies and competitors.This project include a complete economic analysis in which we have discussed Gross domestic products (GDP) , Gross National Product (GNP) , Government policies and political system etc.Company alalysis and industry analysis also included in this project to give the complete overview of this company.This report contain financial analysis of Attock Refinery Limited in order to check the current market position of the company and two years projections to check the market position in future.The company analysis include company¶s comparability, , sales trends , size of the firm , income statement pre-adjusted and adjusted and pre-adjusted and adjusted balance sheet. We have also done the calcutation of Beta , CAPM , ratios their interpretations and expected rate of return as well. We performed ratio analysis which includes Current Ratio , Quick Ratio , Total Debt Ratio , Time Interest Earned Ratio , Inventory Turnover Ratio , Total Asset Turnover ratio , Profit Margin Ratio ,Return On equity , Return On Assets , Earning Per Share , Receivable turnover Ratio and we also give some suggestions.These analyses have been conducted in full detail In order to make final decisions for Attock Refinery Limited value. On the basis of results from projections of the Attock Refinery limited and the market return of Attock Refinery Limited in future, we made our decision to about the investment in Attock Refinery Limited and how to manage the investment.

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Introduction
The installed oil refining capacity in Pakistan has remained stagnant for many years in spite of increase in consumption of energy products. To meet the increasing domestic demand of energy products the country is dependent on imports. The industry experts attribute this to many factors including limited production of indigenous crude ² that too contains very high percentage of wax, the pricing formula, an acute shortage of capital required to build modern refining complex and establishment of large scale refineries in the Middle East and Singapore. While the refineries in the Middle East have the advantage of indigenous crude at very low price the refineries in Singapore enjoy the advantage of their scale of operation and efficiency. Pakistan enjoying very cordial relationship with the Middle Eastern countries continue to import bulk of its requirements from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL) was incorporated as a Private Limited Company in November, 1978 to take over the business of the Attock Oil Company Limited (AOC) relating to refining of crude oil and supplying of refined petroleum products. It was subsequently converted into a Public Limited Company in June, 1979 and is listed on the three stock exchanges of the country. The Company is also registered with Central Depository Company of Pakistan Limited.Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL¶s) principal activity is to refine crude oil. It also produces premium motor gasoline, high speed diesel, kerosene oil, furnace fuel oil, low sulfur furnace fuel oil, aviation fuels, paving asphalt, cut back asphalt, polymer modified bitumen, mineral turpentine, light diesel oil, naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas, Jute batching oil and solvent oil. The Company operates in Pakistan.

Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL) is the pioneer of crude oil refining in the country with its operations dating back to 1922. Backed by a rich experience of more than 85 years of successful operations, ATRL¶s plants have been gradually upgraded/replaced with state-of-the-art hardware to remain competitive and meet new challenges and requirements. The following companies are the major competitors of Attock Refinery Limited: Bosicor Pakistan Limited, Pakistan Refinery Limited & National Refinery Limited.

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Economic Analysis
Official Name
Islamic Republic of Pakistan

Date of Establishment
14th August 1947

Founder¶ Name
Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah

Current Head of State (2010)
Asif Ali Zardari (President) Yousaf Raza Gillani (Prime Minister)

Provinces of Pakistan (2010)
Punjab Sindh Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa* Balochistan

*North west Frontier Province (NWFP) has been changed to Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

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Name of the head of the provinces (2010)
Punjab Slaman Taseer (Governor)

Mian Shahbaz Shareef (Chief Minister)

Sindh Ishrat ul Ebad Khan Syed Qaim Ali Shah (Governor) (Chief Minister)

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Owais Ahmed Ghani Ameer Haider Hoti (Governor) (Chief Minister)

Balochistan Zulfiqar Ali Magsi (Governor)

Nawab Aslam Raisani (Chief Minister)

Capital of Country
Islamabad

Area of Population:
7, 960, 96 Sq. Km

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Population and Area of 4 Provinces (According to 2010)
Division Balochistan Typ HASC FIPS Population Area(km.²) Area(mi.²) p PK.BA PK02 6,565,885 347,190 74,521 205,344 140,914 Capital

134,051 Quetta 28,773 Peshawar 79,284 Lahore 54,407 Karachi

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa p Punjab Sindh p p

PK.NW PK03 17,743,645 PK.PB PK.SD PK04 73,621,290 PK05 30,439,893

Estimated Population of Major cities of Pakistan (2010)
Main cities of Pakistan and their estimated population is given below: The population of Karachi at 13,386,730, Lahore 7,214,954, Faisalabad 2,912,269, Rawalpindi 2,013,876, Gujranwala 1,676,357, Multan 1,610,180, Hyderabad 1,521,231, Peshawar 1,386,529, Islamabad 972,669 and Quetta 871,643.

Major Spoken Languages
English Urdu Punjabi Sindhi Balochi Pashto.

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PAKISTAN GDP GROWTH RATE (2010)
Pakistan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 2.00% over the last 4 quarters. The Pakistan Gross Domestic Product is worth 168 billion dollars or 0.27% of the world economy, according to the World Bank. Pakistan's economy has suffered in the past from decades of internal political disputes, a fast growing population, mixed levels of foreign investment, and a costly, ongoing confrontation with neighboring India. However, IMF-approved government policies, bolstered by foreign investment and renewed access to global markets, have generated solid macroeconomic recovery during the last decade. This page includes: Pakistan GDP Growth Rate chart, historical data and news.
Country Interest Rate Growth Rate Inflation Rate Jobless Rate Current Account Exchange Rate

Pakistan

12.50%

2.00%

13.07%

5.20%

-740

85.2220

Inflation Rate: (2010)
13.07%

Literacy Rate:
54%

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Disputed Territory
The Pakistani-administered portion of the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region (Azad Kashmir and the Northern Areas) and FATA. Where Pakistani forces are doing operations.

Membership of Pakistan in International organization
Pakistan is the member of following organization UNO, SAARC, ECO, SAFTA, ASEAN, WIPO and WTO etc.

Economic Analysis:
GDP growth in Pakistan¶s export markets is likely to continue to fall sharply in 2009, which would translate into a starker-than-projected decline of Pakistan¶s export growth in the medium term, put pressure on Pakistan¶s external balances and complicate growth recovery. Risks to the domestic financial sector may increase, and it seems almost certain that even the downward revised revenue target will not be met in this fiscal year. Stringent implementation of the government¶s IMF-supported economic stabilization program will be critical to success, and timely responses of fiscal and monetary authorities to emerging risks will be essential to ensure it remains on track. Pakistan¶s macroeconomic imbalances are rooted in the sharp rise in international prices of oil and food in 2007/08, combined with policy inaction and internal political turmoil. To avoid a balance of payments crisis and default on foreign debt payments, the authorities developed the stabilization program, which was supported by the IMF through a 23-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) in November 2008. The program includes a medium-term macroeconomic framework with fiscal and monetary tightening to bring down inflation and reduce the external current account deficit to sustainable levels. At the first quarterly review of the SBA in February 2009, the stabilization program remained on track.

The rapid decline in international commodity and oil prices since August 2008 has reduced the risks, facilitated improvement in the external position and the achievement of targets. However, given the global economic crisis, the medium-term outlook presents significant downside risks. The sharp deterioration in the global economic and financial outlook poses significant risks to exports, remittances and external financing. Even though projections in these areas as well as

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forecasts about the speed of real economy recovery were significantly moderated during the first program review in February 2009, they may still turn out to be optimistic. In 2007/08, the sharp rise in international prices of oil and food (specifically Wheat), in combination with policy inaction and internal political turmoil, led to rapidly expanding macroeconomic imbalances in Pakistan. Both fiscal and current account balances widened significantly. In the absence of adequate remedial policy measures to address the imbalances ± in particular not passing on the international price increases to domestic consumers ± the economy begun to adjust through a slowdown in growth and rising inflation. Spending overruns led to a sharp increase in the 2007/08 fiscal deficit to 7.4 percent of GDP, compared to the budget target of 4.0 percent of GDP. Expenditures exceeded the budget target by about 2.9 percent of GDP, while revenues fell short of the target by about 0.6 percent of GDP. About 80 percent of the fiscal deficit increase was driven by international oil and commodity price increases. The rise in the budget deficit was mostly caused by the overrun of 2.7 percent of GDP in budgetary subsidies (to 3.8 percent of GDP from the budget target of 1.1 percent of GDP) owing to the spike in international commodity and oil prices . From 2006/07 to 2007/08, the domestic price of Pakistani oil imports increased by about 60 percent on average. Yet, in an attempt to protect households and businesses from domestic price adjustments, the government kept domestic petroleum prices unchanged until March 2008. This resulted in overruns of 1.4 percent of GDP in the petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) subsidy, and of 0.6 percent of GDP in the electricity subsidy. Furthermore, the rise in international wheat and fertilizer prices led to an overrun of 0.5 percent of GDP in expenditure on the wheat and fertilizer subsidy. According to Economic Survey 2008-09, launched jointly by Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance, Shaukat Tarin and Minister of State for Finance, Hina Rabbani Khar, the economic growth of 2.0 percent seems reasonable although it implies definite slippage against 4.1 percent growth of last year and this year¶s target of 4.5 percent. Addressing the press conference, Shaukat Tarin said that the economic growth of Pakistan should be looked in the backdrop of global recession where positive growth is a rare exception. He said that microeconomic crisis, trade shock, global recession and domestic security challenges were the main hurdles in the way of economic growth of the country during the current financial year. He described the year 2008-09 as µYear of consolidation¶ for the revival of economy, saying that the current government inherited economic setbacks from the previous government. Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance, Shaukat Tarin said that the agriculture sector depicted a stellar growth of 4.7 percent, as compared to 1.1 percent witnessed last year and the target of 3.5 percent for the year. However, the overall FBR tax collection remained less than satisfactory and witnessed deceleration in real terms. Resultantly, the FBR tax collection to GDP ratio is likely to deteriorate to around 9 percent of GDP as against the target of bringing it in the vicinity of 10 percent of GDP.

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Tarin said that FBR would broaden its tax base by bringing those services and other sectors into the tax net who are still avoiding tax payment but contributing to the GDP. Output in the manufacturing sector contracted by 3.3 percent in 2008-09 as compared to expansion of 4.8 percent last year and target of 6.1 percent. Small and medium manufacturing sector maintained its healthy growth of last year at 7.5 percent.Large-scale manufacturing depicted contraction of 7.7 percent as against expansion of 4.0 percent in the last year and 5.5 percent target for the year.He added that the massive contraction has been because of acute energy outrages, security environment and political disruption in March 2009.The services sector grew by 3.6 percent as against the target of 6.1 percent and last year¶s actual growth of 6.6 percent. Value-added in the wholesale and retail trade sector grew at 3.1 percent as compared to 5.3 percent in last year and target for the year of 5.4 percent. Finance and insurance sector witnessed registered negative growth of 1.2 percent in 2008-09 he said adding that the performance of the sector shows that Pakistan¶s financial sector was integrated in the world economy and is feeling the heat of the crisis plaguing international financial markets.

He said that the transport sector and communication sub-sector depicted a sharp deceleration in growth to 2.9 percent in 2008-09 as compared to 5.7 percent of last year.Pakistan¶s per capita real income has risen by 2.5 percent in 2008-09 as against 3.4 percent last year. Per capita income in dollar terms rose from $1042 last year to $1046 in 2008-09, thereby showing marginal increase of 0.3 percent.Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance, Shaukat Tarin said that total investment declined from 22.5 percent of GDP in 2006-07 to 19.7 percent of GDP in 2008-09. He said that fixed investment decreased to 18.1 percent of GDP from 20.4 percent last year adding that private sector investment was decelerating persistently since 2004-05 and its ratio to GDP declined from 15.7 percent in 2004-05 to 13.2 percent in 2008-09.Public sector investment to GDP ratio has risen persistently from 4.0 percent in 2002-03 to 5.6 percent in 2006-07. However, it declined to 4.9 percent in 2008-09.

National savings rate has declined to 14.4 percent of GDP in 2008-09 as against 13.5 percent of GDP last year. Domestic savings also declined substantially from 16.3 percent of GDP in 200506 to 11.2 percent of GDP in 2008-09.The overall foreign investment during the first ten months has declined by 42.7 percent and stood at $2.2 billion as against $3.9 billion in the comparable period of last year.Foreign direct investment private showed some resilience and stood at $3205.4 million during July-April (2008-09) as against $3719.1 million in the corresponding period of last year, thereby showing a decline of 13.8 percent.

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Net foreign assets of the banking system recorded a decline of over Rs.227.1 billion during the first ten months of the current fiscal year to May 9, he added.He said that the government¶s budgetary borrowing from the banking system decreased by Rs.339.9 billion during July-May 2008-09 against an increase of Rs.360.4 billion in the same period of last financial year. The inflation rate as measured by the changes in Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 22.3 percent during July-April 2008-09, as against 10.3 percent in the comparable period of last year. The food inflation is estimated at 26.6 percent and non-food 19.0 percent against 15.0 percent and 6.8 percent in the corresponding period of last year, he added.

The Sensitive Price Indicator has recorded increase of 26.3 percent during July-April 2008-09 against 14.1 percent of last year.He attributed the increase in inflation rate to the increase in food price inflation. It is expected that the average inflation for the year (2008-09) as measured by CPI will be close to 21.0 percent, he added. Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance, Shaukat Tarin said that overall exports recorded a negative growth of 3.0 percent during July-April 2088-09 against the positive growth of 10.2 percent in the corresponding period of last year.

Imports registered a negative growth of 9.8 percent in July-April 2009 as compared to the same period of last year, he added.

Workers¶ Remittances totalled $6355.6 million in July-April 2008-09 as against $5319.1 million in the comparable period of last year, depicting an increase of 19.5 percent.Tarnin said that Foreign Exchange Reserves amounted $11.6 by the end of May 2009, reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan stood at $8.28 billion and reserves by banks stood at $3.32 billion.

Tarin said that the government has initiated survey on poverty which would be completed in next three months.He said that the government, under its safety net programme, has already initiated Benazir Income Support Programme and Punjab Food Support Programme to help the vulnerable section of the society.To a question, he said that the government would allocate considerable allocations for the internally displaced persons and will not only rely on foreign assistance and donors.He said that the government expects Rs.180 billion from Friends of Democratic Pakistan in the forthcoming budget adding that IMF would also provide next tranche of grant by June end. He said that Federal Bureau of Statistics will be given autonomy and linked with reputed international organization to make its data reliable, transparent and acceptable to all stakeholders.

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Company & Industry Analysis
OVERVIEW Attock Refinery Limited (ARL) is a pioneer crude oil refining company and a major supplier of refined petroleum products in Pakistan. It is a subsidiary of Attock Oil Company Limited, UK and its ultimate parent is Bay View International Group S.A. It began its operations in 1922 and was the first refinery in the region. ARL became a private limited company in 1978 and in 1979 the company was converted into a public limited company. It is listed on all the three stock exchanges of the country. The company s primary activity is refining crude oil. It also produces certain petroleum products such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), unleaded petroleum solvent grade (PMG), naphtha, premium motor gasoline, mineral turpentine (MTT), JP-1 & JP-8, kerosene oil, high speed diesel (HSD), light diesel oil (LDO), furnace fuel oil (FFO), low sulfur fuel oil (LSFO), and polymer modified bitumen (PMB). ARL has an edge over other refineries because of its configuration which enables it to process the lightest to the heaviest indigenous crude and produce a complete range of both energy and non-energy products. The non-energy products include lubes and greases, asphalt, solvent oil, mineral turpentine (MTT), benzene toluene xylene (BTX), jute batching oil (JBO), processing oil, carbon oil and wax. CAPACITY Attock Refinery is located in Morgah, near Rawalpindi. ARL had commenced its operations with a capacity of 119k tpa. Now the company s capacity has reached to 1.82m tpa. The overall total capacity of the refinery sector is 12.87m tpa. ARL with a 14.14% of total refining capacity of the sector is the fourth largest refinery of Pakistan in terms of refining capacity. The company is constructing a 100,000 barrels crude oil storage tanks, costing Rs 73 million and a furnace fuel; storage tank with a capacity of 500M tons to supply fuel oil to AGL s Power Plant. The company is further constructing other products storage tanks such as a 4000 M tons capacity naptha storage and a Jute Batching Oil (JBO) of 500 M tons. This will help ARL achieve more operational flexibility in the future.

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Attock Refinery Limited has is the fourth largest refinery in term of market share too. PARCO is the market leader with 35% market share followed by PRL (17%), NRL (22%) and ARL (14%). ARL s market share declined by 2% over the last year, and so has PARCO s, whereby NRL s share has increased. Total Capacity is of 12.8 MTOE per annum. ARL operates under the Import Parity Pricing Formula whereby net profit after tax greater than 50% of paid-up capital is required to be diverted to a special reserve to offset any future loss of make investment for expansion or up-gradation of the Refinery. Current crude production of Pakistan is 65,000 to 67,000 barrels per day and total capacity of the refineries is 285,000 barrels per day or 12 million tons hence 22,0000 barrels per day are imported. PRICING FORMULA FOR REFINERIES Currently, Parco works under oil refinery formula with 25 percent guaranteed rate of return up to December 2008. The profit of NRL, PRL and ARL up to 2001-2002 is under 10 percent guaranteed rate. The IPP formula was modified in 2002 and minimum 10 percent guaranteed with upper limit of 40 percent was done away with. Tariff protection was allowed to NRL, PRL and ARL giving incentive of custom/deemed duty of 10 percent on high speed diesel (HSD) and 6 percent on kerosene oil, light diesel oil (LDO) and jet propulsion (JP-4) in their ex-refinery prices to operate on self financing basis. The formula was further revised in 2007-08 by reducing deemed duty to 7.5 percent on HSD and removing 6 percent deemed duty on kerosene, LDO and JP-4/8 through budgets. This reduction in deemed duty, twined with fall in global oil prices and caused a considerable decline in the profitability of the oil refineries. CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION OF POL PRODUCTS Share of the petroleum products is about 40 percent of the current energy consumption in Pakistan. This consumption has grown sharply during 1980s at rate of almost 7 percent per annum but it has shown a decreasing trend during 1990s and later it gained the pace during 20042005 at about 10 percent per annum. Oil consumption in different energy products is dominated by gasoline and fuel oil. Gasoline in Pakistan consists of High-speed diesel (HSD) and Light speed diesel oil (LSDO), while fuel oil is normally used in terms of furnace oil, which is being used for thermal power generation projects. Transport and agricultural sectors are the two major users of gasoline. Transport sector, includes both private and commercial types. In the recent years, the government of Pakistan was providing huge subsidy over the gasoline due to which its consumption has increased. But in 2007, increase in oil prices in the international market affected Pakistan s economy due to which

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government has gradually reduced the subsidy levels; as a result, gasoline prices are increasing locally also and affecting the consumption. Secondly, the government is promoting the compressed natural gas (CNG) sector in Pakistan and both encouraging and forcing the transport sector to convert on CNG. This indicates that in the coming years Pakistan will see reduced consumption of Gasoline products. But there is no alternative of Gasoline in Agriculture sector and as a result, this sector is facing extreme difficulties due to rise of Gasoline process. Furnace oil or fuel oil is normally used for production of Electricity via thermal power plants. At the moment country is facing extreme energy crisis and government is planning for short term power generation plants that are oil based and also encouraging independent power producers to invest in the country. As all the new thermal power plants are oil based and also country has now very limited natural gas resources the consumption of furnace oil will also increase in the coming years. RECENT RESULTS 1Q10 The results were in line with the industry results. The refinery sector is facing the problems due to declining GRMs and unfavorable pricing decisions by the government. The refinery faced a loss, albeit lower, due to adverse forex movements. The refineries due to restriction on hedging against the forex movements facing trouble due to the rupee depreciation. Company incurred a loss of Rs 396 million as compared to a loss of Rs 870 million in 1Q09. The exchange rate loss was lower at Rs 127 million as compared to Rs 1240 million a year before. Due to liquidity issues, the output and consequently the sales were lower as compared to the quarter previous year. Other income also declined by Rs 110 million while dividend income of Rs 157 million was earned which offset the negative results somewhat. PROFITABILITY The sales performance of ARL displayed a consistent upward trend from FY04 to FY08, recording a phenomenal increase of 55% increase in sales in FY08 but this was followed by a 16.72% decline in sales in FY09. Cost of Sales has varied correspondingly to almost near levels as of the sales. The refinery product prices in Pakistan are linked to the prices in the Gulf region. The Arab Light crude oil prices increased by 44.3% to an average US $83.34 per barrel in FY08 as compared to US $57.77 per barrel during FY07. This increase in oil prices have helped in improving the sales revenue and profits of the refinery sector.

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The companies in the refinery sector registered a substantial rise in the gross refining margins (GRMs) during FY08 as compared to in FY07 also because the increase in product prices was higher than the increase in the crude prices. While the inflated crude oil resulted in huge profits in FY08, the same reason deteriorated revenue in FY09. The economic recession of 2008 brought with it plummeting oil prices, with the Arabian light hitting a record all-time low of US $40 per BBL in November 2008. Asymmetric prices of company s product went drastically down as a result and eroded the profitability. The cost of this main input averaged at US $67.83 per BBL in FY09. Profits earned at the back of naphtha export also registered a decline of 27% contributing to the already low sales of ARL. The declined sales figures correspond to the declining PAT of ARL in FY09. The company is operating under the import parity pricing formula, as modified from time to time, whereby it is charged the cost of crude on import parity basis and is allowed product prices equivalent to the import parity price, calculated under prescribed parameters. Effective July 1, 2007, the Government made certain modifications in the prescribed parameters effectively reducing the price of Kerosene oil, Light Diesel Oil (LDO) and JP-8 in 2007 and 2008. The Government has further modified the refineries pricing formula in August, 2008 whereby the 10% duty included in pricing of HSD has been cut to 7.5% and the motor gasoline pricing has been unilaterally revised by linking its price to Arab Gulf 95 RON prices and calculating the price of 87 RON motor gasoline on a unitary method basis. This revision adversely affected the pricing of HSD and motor gasoline, which are company s two major products. Earlier in July 2002, the Government had modified the pricing formula that was applicable to the company restricting the distribution of net profits after tax (if any) from refinery operations to 50% of paid-up capital as at July 1, 2002 and diverting the surplus profits, if any, to a special reserve to offset any future loss or make investment for expansion or up gradation of the refinery. Further, the Government had abolished the minimum rate of return of 10% which continues to be contested by the company, as it represented to the Government that the already existing agreement for guaranteed return could be modified only with the mutual consent of both the parties. While this deregulation promoted competition in the sector, it caused a huge setback in conditions where the international oil prices are subject to drastic price shocks.

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PROFITABILITY Attock Refinery Limited registered a drastic fall in profit after tax after a phenomenal increase in FY 08. The company earned a profit after tax of Rs 1.016 billion in FY09 against Rs 6.147 billion posted in FY08. The gross sales earned by the company amounted to almost the same level as FY08. However, the petroleum development levy charge increased by 565% over the FY09, causing a setback in the already declining sales figures which amounted to Rs 76.546 billion against Rs 91.910 billion in FY08. The cost of sales for the period FY09 decreased from Rs 89.65 billion in FY08 to Rs 75.342 billion in FY09 mainly on account of decline in the crude oil consumed. Research and Development cost reduced considerably by 78% indicating the company s reduced interest in initiating new projects in face of risky crude oil market and the slowdown of the economy. Despite a 16% decrease in the cost of sales, the company netted 52% decline in gross profit in FY09. This is depicted in the sharp decrease in the gross profit margin of the company in FY09. The administration and distribution costs for the period FY09 increased by 10.50% and 8.02% respectively. The financial charges of the company increased by 15% in FY09. Financial costs increased mainly due to the huge exchange loss amounting to Rs 1.464 billion in FY09. The exchange difference arises due to translation of foreign currency liabilities of crude oil and increased to such a great extent due to the depreciation of Pak rupee against the US dollar. The profitability ratios have improved considerably after falling considerably in FY06. ARL observed cascading profit margins for the FY06 in tandem with the declining profitability in the sector to the extent that gross margins and profit from Refinery operations turned negative during the first half of FY07. The fluctuating crude oil and petroleum products prices were the major factors behind these results. However things started improving in the third quarter of FY07 as product prices increased more than crude oil prices, allowing the company to earn a net profit of Rs 504.33 million for the year and giving a much needed boost to the gross refiner s margin and net profit margin. Sluggish demand for motor gasoline (PMG) due to high prices and unfavourable government policies also contributed to declining profits in FY06. PMG is a premium product for the company s profitability and the declining sales of the product forced the company to resort to the exports of naphtha. This transaction resulted in losses for the company because of the high transportation and handling costs and due to the lower margins available on sales of the product. Hence profitability crashed further during the year. FY07 brought about a positive change in this regard as well as demand for motor gasoline increased, accompanied by a decline in naphtha exports. This was a result of curbing the

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smuggling of this product due to domestic rationing in one of the neighbouring countries and a change in the geo-political situation in the border areas. This development also contributed to the profitability of the company during the FY07. The upward trend of crude and oil prices continued in FY08, where the crude oil hit the record high price of US $147 per barrel in the international market. These fluctuations in the international prices of petroleum products and crude oil provided abnormally high returns to the refiners margins and the profitability increased to unprecedented level to Rs 6.147 billion in FY08 against Rs 0.748 billion in FY07. However the refineries did face a challenging and testing time when the government this year didn t allow the full impact of these rising prices to be passed on to the consumers. Resultantly huge subsidies were given in the prices of motor gasoline, kerosene oil, diesel and other petroleum products. These subsidies were financed heavily by the oil industry including the oil refineries and the oil marketing companies creating a huge inter corporate debt. These inter corporate debt and price differential claims receivables are still outstanding by the government, seriously hampering the operations of the oil industry. A modification of the Pricing Formula in FY08, which reduced the deemed duty on HSD, Kerosene Oil, LDO and JP-8 resulted in corresponding decline in the prices of these products. Even thought the GoP initiated this measure for public interest, it initiated resistance by the refineries as it would erode the profitability of the company and hamper continued operations at full capacity. With the global recession setting in the beginning of FY09, the international prices of petroleum products and crude oil started falling since August 2008 and hit the record low of US $38 per barrel in the international market. Without stabilization, these prices remained within the range of US $38 per barrel to US $per barrel. With the change in the pricing formula and declining international crude oil prices, this also resulted in inventory losses, the refiners margins were affected by around 30% decline in dollar/rupee parity. With all these factors combined, ATRL suffered a huge loss in FY09 particularly in July-December 2008. ATRL was able to reverse the negative impact in the ensuing period through product management based on price economies and increase in production of high value products that was supported by an increase in demand for motor gasoline. The persistent issue of circular debt continued to hamper the optimal utilization of the refinery s capacity. With the declining GRM, the profits from the refinery operations for the FY09 amounted to Rs 406,016 million against Rs 2,007.015 million in FY08.

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After accounting for non-refinery income of Rs 610.672 million the net profit after tax stood at Rs 1,016.758 million in FY09, demonstrating a decline of 83.46% from last year. The declined profitability has simultaneously caused a drastic fall on return to assets and return to common equity, each falling by a colossal 81% and 84% over FY09. These declines are in line with industry trends, as similar factors plagued the profitability of the refineries in this year. LIQUIDITY In terms of the liquidity measure generated by the current ratio, ARL lags behind its counterparts. The liquidity position of ARL had been declining over the period since FY 04. The current ratio of the company reached dangerously low levels so that the current assets were no longer sufficient to cover the current liabilities. This decline was observed despite an increase in cash assets during FY06 from long-term loans taken by the company as a portion of the loan matured and became due. The trade payables increased rapidly over the last few years, thus making a significant contribution to the observed trend. This increase in trade payables may be traced back to rising crude oil prices over the years. The deteriorating liquidity situation was a source of concern for the company and a threat to its financial strength. In FY08, ARL managed to slightly improve its liquidity position. This was because the current assets of ARL increased more in proportion (71%) than the current liabilities (45%). There was a significant of 113% in the cash and bank balance. In FY09, liquidity of ATRL declined by just 0.01 but is subject to vulnerability as we can see a contraction in the cash balance from 56% of total current assets in FY08 to 24% of total current assets in FY09. Trade debts have increased considerably between the two periods, from Rs 9.207 billion in FY08 to Rs 15.508 billion in FY09. This indicates illiquid assets of the company mainly tied up in PDC receivable from the GoP. Current Liabilities for the company have declined by almost 16% which was a little less than the 17% decline of Current Assets.

ASSET MANAGEMENT ATRL appears more efficient than the industry in management of its inventory but lags behind in the collection of receivables. In FY08 the asset management of the company further improved as the operating cycle of the company reduced by 8 days. In FY09 there is a reversal in this trend as the operating cycle increased drastically by almost 41 days. This is a cause of concern for the refinery as slack credit policy and extension in collecting receivables endangers the cash flow of the company. This operating cycle is higher than that in the industry and hence ATRL should be cautious in future and be more prudent in carrying out its business. The receivable collection period for ARL improved in FY06 but rose in FY07 whereas the opposite is true for the inventory turnover (days). The inventory turnover jumped up during the

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FY06 but declined slightly during FY07. As a result of these fluctuations in DSO and inventory turnover, the operating cycle also declined during FY06 and increased during HY07. The total assets turnover has been on a declining trend since FY05 and the trend continued till FY07. Both DSO and inventory turnover register increases in FY09 against last year. This is line with the industry trend in FY09. As lower sales and income constraints plagued the economy, effects of this are evident on the Refinery s ability to generate sales and subsequent cash flows. The total asset turnover remained the same during FY08 because the company was able to generate business in proportion to the increase in the assets of the company. The same trend continued in FY09. The ratio of this turnover is line with that of the industry. The sales to equity had increased in FY06 as a result of a 34% increase in sales against a relatively small increase in equity. However in FY07, despite higher sales, the sales/equity declined. The sales to equity ratio maintained its declining trend in FY08 as well because the sales of the company increased less in proportion to its equity base. The company s equity base has been strengthened due to higher paid up capital and increased reserves. Downward trend continued in FY09, due to declining sales and increased equity on the back of issue of bonus shares of value Rs 142,155,000.

DEBT MANAGEMENT ARL is largely an equity-based company as evident from the low long-term debt to equity ratio. The ratio had jumped up in FY06 as the company acquired long-term loans but the repayment of the loans during the first half of FY07 has brought down the ratio to the previous lower levels. The ratio has further declined in FY 08. The ratio registered a small climb in FY09 mainly at the back of 24% increase in provision for staff gratuity. As a consequence of the loan undertaken during FY06, the TIE plunged drastically for the year. However with the repayment of the loan, it is expected that the company will be able to gradually redeem its position. An initiation of the trend has been observed during FY07, as TIE rose slightly and finance cost declined 53%. However this trend wasn t sustained as finance cost increase drastically in FY08 by 404% and in FY09 by 18.25%. The main reason for this cost has been the increasing exchange loss suffered by the Refinery. Considerable discrepancy is seen in terms of the debt ratios of the company. ATRL has a history of higher than average debt to asset ratio whereas its long-term debt to equity ratio has stood well below average for all years except FY06 when it had taken on additional loans. However the TIE ratio for the company is very low compared to the average industry. When assessed in terms of the total debt to equity, the company does not fare so well. This is due to the high current liability figures, comprised mainly of trade and other payables and provision for taxation. This ratio had also jumped up in FY06 as a consequence of the long-term loans but has not been able to regain its former level in FY07. Declining trend was witnessed in FY08 and FY09. In FY08 even though a 55% increase in current liabilities, equity expanded considerably

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by the increase in retained earnings on the back of high profits earned in the year. In FY09, the current liabilities decreased by 11%, equity experienced a rise due to the issue of bonus shares. The strong debt ratios reflect the financial strength of ARL and with an improvement in the profit situation, the TIE may also improve. MARKET VALUE After consistently giving out dividends in the form of cash or bonus shares, ATRL decided not to give out dividends in FY09 in view of the declining refiner¶s margins and uncertain future profitability. This also shows shareholders commitment to undertake the projects relating to Naphtha Isomerization, Preflash unit, and Diesel Hydrodesulphurization and to produce environment friendly products. Government is expected to take positive measures in providing requisite measures essential for the materialization of the projects for continued economic sustainability of the refinery.

FUTURE OUTLOOK The revision of the pricing formula as notified in August 2008 has had an adverse effect on the revenues of the refinery with prices of its two main products HSD and PMG having being adversely impacted. These measures were taken by the GoP under extreme public pressure in addition to the earlier modifications it made to the pricing formula from time to time in the form of withdrawal of deemed duties on jet fuel, kerosene oil, and LDO. The year under review witnessed fluctuating international prices of crude oil and petroleum products, which could not stabilize due to world recession in the past year. Unless these prices stabilize the refineries shall continue to carry the risk of unpredictable refiners margins with the additional risk of exchange rate fluctuations that too had considerable effect on the profitability of the refineries. Due to changes in product specifications warranted by environmental considerations and as part of its commitment to meet these requirements, ATRL has undertaken the task of implementing certain projects that shall cater to the market requirements of cleaner fuels, as well as to maintain and enhance its oil refining facilitated to meet any future growth in crude oil availability in the northern region, continued with its efforts to complete the engineering design of these projects to ensure expeditious implementations. These plans include construction of Pre-Flash Unit to enhance the overall refining capacity, an Isomerisation Unit that shall upgrade the motor gasoline by reducing benzene and aromatics and a Hydro-desulphurisation unit (DHDS) to reduce sulphur contents in HSD to meet Euro Standards. With the implementation of these projects ATRL shall not only be able to retain its market share in production and supply of petroleum products but also provide operational flexibility in its future operations.

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Calculation Of Ratios Year 2006-2007
Current Ratio: Current Assets / Current Liabilities 19,789,768,671 / 26,400,149,445 0.75 : 1

Quick Ratio: Quick Assets / Current Liabilities 15,937,122,835 / 26,400,149,445 0.60 : 1 .

Total Debt Ratio: Total Debt / Total Assets*100 28,409,208,036 / 32,187,952,684*100 88.26%

Time Interest Earned Ratio: EBIT / interest Expense There is no EBIT and interest expense is given . So we can not calculate Time interest earned ratio.

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Inventory Turnover Ratio: Cost of good sold / Average Inventory 58,609,954,476 / 3688,226,783 15.89 Times.

Total Assets Turnover Ratio: Total Sales / Total Average Inventory 59,154,779,218 / 30,642,118,910 1.93 Times

Profit Margin Ratio: Net Income / Total Sales*100 748984812 / 59,154,779,218*100 1.26%

Return On Equity Net Income / Shareholder¶s Equity*100 748,984,812 / 3,778,664,648*100 19.82%

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Return On Assets: Net Income / Average Total Assets 748,984,812 / 30,642,118,910*100 2.44%

Earning Per Share: Net Income / No. Of share Outstanding 748,984,812 / 5686200 13.17 Per Share.

Receivables Turnover Ratio: Net Credit sales / Average Accounts receivables No credit sales are available of ATRL.

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Year 2007-2008 (Rs¶000)
Current Ratio: Current Assets / Current Liabilities 33,783,918 / 38,361,964 0.88 : 1

Quick Ratio: Quick Assets / Current Liabilities 28939,065 / 38,361,964 0.75 : 1

Total Debt Ratio: Total Debt / Total Assets*100 40,382,192 / 50,081,183*100 80.63%

Time Interest Earned Ratio: EBIT / interest Expense There is no EBIT and interest expense is given. So we can not calculate Time interest earned ratio.

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Inventory Turnover Ratio: Cost of good sold / Average Inventory 89,646,373 / 4,348,749 20.61 Times.

Total Assets Turnover Ratio: Total Sales / Total Average Inventory 91,910,703 / 41,134,568 2.23 Times

Profit Margin Ratio: Net Income / Total Sales*100 6,147,774 / 9,190,703*100 6.68 %

Return on Equity Net Income / Shareholder¶s Equity*100 6,147,774 / 9,698,991*100 63.38 %

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Return on Assets: Net Income / Average Total Assets 6,147,774 / 41,134,568*100 14.94 %

Earning Per Share: Net Income / No. Of share Outstanding 6,147,774 / 71081 86.49 Per Share.

Receivables Turnover Ratio: Net Credit sales / Average Accounts receivables No credit sales are available of ATRL.

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Year 2008-2009 (Rs¶000)
Current Ratio: Current Assets / Current Liabilities 28,130,383 / 32,296,945 0.87: 1

Quick Ratio: Quick Assets / Current Liabilities 23,261,407 / 32,296,945 0.72: 1

Total Debt Ratio: Total Debt / Total Assets*100 34,340,414 / 44,487,543*100 77.19%

Time Interest Earned Ratio: EBIT / interest Expense There is no EBIT and interest expense is given. So we can not calculate Time interest earned ratio.

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Inventory Turnover Ratio: Cost of good sold / Average Inventory 75,342,096 / 4,856,914 15.51 Times.

Total Assets Turnover Ratio: Total Sales / Total Average Inventory 76,546,448 / 47,284,363 1.61 Times

Profit Margin Ratio: Net Income / Total Sales*100 1,016,758 / 76,546,448*100 1.32 %

Return On Equity Net Income / Shareholder¶s Equity*100 1,016,758 / 10,147,129*100 10.20 %

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Return on Assets: Net Income / Average Total Assets 1,016,758 / 47,284,363*100 2.15 %

Earning Per Share: Net Income / No. Of share Outstanding 1,016,758 / 85,298 11.29 Per Share.

Receivables Turnover Ratio: Net Credit sales / Average Accounts receivables No credit sales are available of ATRL.

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Interpretations of Ratios of 2007,2008 & 2009 year Current Ratio:
Higher current ratio shows the better liquidity position of the company. But in the year 2007, the current assets are low as compare to the current liabilities which was not good for ATRL.The current assets were 0.75 in comparison with current liabilities. But in year 2008 it increased to 0.88 and in 2009 it was 0.87 as compare to the current liabilities.

Quick Ratio:
Quick assets show the liquidity position of the company. In the year 2007 the liquidity position of ATRL is not good as it is less than as current liabilities. It was .60: 1 in year 2007.Then In year 2008 it was 0.75:1 and in year 2009 it was 0.72:1.

Debt Ratio:
The debt of ATRL are 88.26% of the total assets in the year 2007.Then in year 2008 it decreased and reached at80.63% and in year 2009 it reached at 77.19%.Its means that the debts of ATRL are decreasing year by year..This is good for ATRL.

Inventory Turnover Ratio:
This ratio shows that how many times a company's inventory is sold or replaced over a period The inventory turnover ratio of ATRL is 15.89 times in the year 2007.In year 2008 it was 20.61 times and in year 2009 it was 15.51 times.

Total Assets Turnover Ratio:
This is a measure of how well assets are being used to produce revenue, also called asset turnover. The Total asset turnover ratios for ATRL are 1.93, 2.23 and 1.61 times, for the years of 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively.

:

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Profit Margin Ratio:
The ratio is used to measure the overall profitability over the sales of the company. It means that what the company actually earned on its sales. The profit margin of ATRL was 1.26% in year 2007,6.68% in year 2008, and it was 1.32% in year 2009.

Return on equity:
The return on equity in 2007 was 19.82%, In 2008 year it reached to 63.38% and in the year 2009 it was 10.20%.

Return on Assets:
It shows that what profit we are getting on our assets. The return on asstes of ATRL was 2.44% in year 2007.Then in year 2008 it was 14.94% and in year 2009 The ROA of ATRL was 2.15%.

Earning Per Share:
This ratio shows that what the company actually earning on its 1 share/each share. The earning per share(EPS) of ATRL in 2007 was 13.17Rs ,Then it jump to 86.49 Rs in year 2008. And In year 2009 it reached to 11.92Rs.

Time Interest earned ratio & Receivables turnover ratio
Can not calculate these ratios of ATRL.because of some missing values.

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Calculation of Beta
Year Month/Day 2009 Jan,1 2009 Jan,15 2009 Feb,2 2009 Feb,16 2009 Mar,3 2009 Mar,16 2009 Apr,1 2009 Apr,15 2009 May,4 2009 May,15 2009 June,1 2009 June,15 2009 July,1 Stock Price (ATRL) 56.9 58.6 44.93 50.7 62 70.03 84.25 131.92 117.55 122 124.14 121.97 131.02 KSE 100 Index 5753.18 5778.58 5333.95 5776.73 5596.49 6063.54 6931.90 7807.08 7062.25 7177.64 7210.34 6953.09 7270.72 Stock Return (Y) ---2.99 -23.32 13.02 22.09 12.95 20.30 56.58 -10.89 3.78 1.75 -1.74 7.41 Market Return (X) ---0.44 -7.69 8.30 -3.12 8.34 14.32 12.62 -9.54 1.63 0.45 -3.56 4.56 (X)*(Y) X2 Y2

---1.31 179.33 108.06 -68.92 108.00 290.69 714.03 103.89 6.16 0.78 6.19 33.78

---.1936 59.136 68.89 9.73 69.55 205.06 159.26 91.01 2.65 0.20 12.67 20.79

---8.94 543.83 169.52 487.96 167.70 412.09 3201.29 118.59 14.28 3.06 3.02 54.90

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Year Month/Day 2009 July,15 2009 Aug,3 2009 Aug,17 2009 Sep,1 2009 Sep,15 2009 Oct,1 2009 Oct,15 2009 Nov,2 2009 Nov,16 2009 Dec,1 2009 Dec,15 2010 Jan,4 2009 Jan,15 Sum Avg.

Stock Price (ATRL) 153.12

KSE 100 Index 7686.15

Stock Return (Y) 16.86

Market Return (X) 5.71

(X)*(Y)

X2

Y2

96.27

32.60

284.25

152.75 144.78 150.19 150.45 156.61 140.64 119.43 153.25 147.26 136.77 138.79 137.78

7716.99 7932.55 8769.24 9029.45 9301.18 9845.73 8872.40 9304.31 9013.04 9266.04 9437.85 9923.14

-0.24 -5.21 3.73 0.17 4.09 -10.19 -15.08 28.31 -3.90 -7.12 1.47 -0.72 117.09 4.683

-0.40 2.79 10.54 2.96 3.01 5.85 -9.88 4.86 -3.13 2.80 1.85 5.14 58.85 2.35

-0.096 -14.53 39.31 0.50 12.31 -59.61 148.99 137.58 12.20 -19.93 2.71 3.70 1842.70

0.16 7.78 111.09 8.76 9.06 34.22 97.61 23.61 9.79 7.84 3.42 26.41 1071.49

0.05 27.14 13.91 0.02 16.72 103.83 227.40 801,45 15.21 50.69 2.16 0.51 5927.07

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Beta
= n™xy ± (™x)(™y) n ™ x2 - (™x)2

=

(25)(1842.70) ± (58.85)(117.09) 25(1071.49) - (58.85)2

=

46067.5 - 6890.75 26787.25 - 3463.32

=

39176.75 23323.93

Beta =

1.68

Capital Asset Pricing Model
Rs = Rf + BS (Rm ± Rf) = 11.95% + [1.68 * (15% - 11.95%) ] = 11.95% + [1.68 * 3.05%] = 11.95% + 5.124%

CAPM = 17.07% (The Expected Rate Of Return)

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Suggestions

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Bibliography
Introduction http://www.arl.com.pk/profile.php http://www.corporateinformation.com/Company-Snapshot.aspx?cusip=C58652200 Company Analysis http://finance.kalpoint.com/highlights/corporate-news/refinery-company-attock-refinery-limited-analysisof-financial-statements-financial-year-04-1q-10.html

For Both: ³ATRL stock values & KSE 100 index values http://www.scstrade.com/TechnicalAnalysis/charting.asp
Economic Analysis http://www.statoids.com/upk.html http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/national/karachispopulation-growing-at-5pc-a-year-660 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Growth.aspx?Symbol=PKR http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/293051-1241610364594/60975481241610395774/WBPakistanUpdateApril2009.pdf http://www.pro-pakistan.com/2009/06/11/download-economic-survey-of-pakistan-2008-09/

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