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TargetPoint Consulting MI-01 Poll Results, 09.08.2010

TargetPoint Consulting MI-01 Poll Results, 09.08.2010

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Published by Sean Hackbarth
In the two-way ballot test, TargetPoint Consulting found Gary McDowell trails Dr. Dan Benishek by over 22 points.
In the two-way ballot test, TargetPoint Consulting found Gary McDowell trails Dr. Dan Benishek by over 22 points.

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Published by: Sean Hackbarth on Sep 08, 2010
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At your request, TargetPoint Consulting conducted a survey of likely voters in Michigan’s 1st Congressional District. We conducted 406 telephone interviews (300 across the entire district with an oversampling in key areas). A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +/- 5.7% in 95 out of 100 cases. The surveys were conducted August 31 – September 2, 2010. The results from the survey are compelling. The First District appears to be slipping away from the Democrats and your chances of victory have improved greatly over the summer as national trends are fully manifesting themselves in this district. The political environment facing our Democratic opponent has turned toxic.   Perhaps the most important single data point is the fact that 67% of the voters’ would prefer a congressman who will act as a check and a balance on the Obama/Pelosi agenda. Less than one-quarter of the district wants a congressman who will help implement that agenda. Nearly as strong is their desire for an outsider to go to Washington and represent their beliefs. By a two-to-one margin, 56%-28%, voters prefer a congressman who comes from outside government and politics as opposed to a candidate who has experience as a state legislator in Lansing. Democratic leadership approval ratings are also abysmal – 59% disapprove of the way President Obama is handling his job (45% strongly disapprove) and Speaker Pelosi has a 60% unfavorable rating with only 25% responding favorably.

This environment, coupled with your strong campaign to date, has made you the clear choice among the district’s voters. In both a two-way and a more crowded four way contest, you have strong leads heading into the final two months of the campaign: Two-Way Congressional Ballot Dan Benishek Gary McDowall Undecided 54% 31% 14% Four-Way Congressional Ballot Dan Benishek Gary McDowall Lonnie Lee Snyder* Glenn Wilson 39% 25% 11 6

*Snyder has since been removed from ballot by the Michigan Supreme Court

You currently lead in each of the four measurable media markets (Alpena, Flint, Marquette and Traverse City) and have a significant advantage on overall name ID and perceptions. While you should expect this race to tighten as McDowell and his interest group supporters begin airing first television ads, their job is made very difficult because the Democratic party currently stands on the wrong side of three key issues in the district. Spending 56% of voters think we must cut federal spending in order to get our deficits under control. Otherwise we are going to be facing big tax increases, which will hurt job creation and force our children and grandchildren to pay out for wasteful spending

ObamaCare 45% of voters feel the healthcare law needs to be repealed and replaced with new reforms that would include more free market principles and fewer restrictions on individuals and businesses.

New Energy Taxes 53% of the voters are EXTREMELY angry about Efforts in Washington to create a cap and trade energy scheme that would raise energy costs for everyone in Northern Michigan

It is fair to say that, at this stage, Gary McDowell’s support is limited only to base Democrat voters. However, given the lack of awareness that McDowell enjoys, we should expect that to change, if and when he begins running any kind of pro-McDowell advertising. You need to spend the final two months of the election season continuing to spread your campaign’s messages, especially your signature issues of the 4 R’s - Read it, Reduce It, Repeal It, Reform It. Strong majorities are already responding to this message and as they learn more about your agenda and the record of your opponent, you can expect these positive outcomes to continue. Additionally, pointing out your opponents long history of supporting higher taxes, increased spending and his inability to stand up against his party and for his constituents will be a key part of our winning efforts.


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