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Demand Forecasting Of Cadbury Dairymilk

Demand Forecasting Of Cadbury Dairymilk

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¡ó ShAKAüA KUSANALL

¡k híMANí LAÎASíA
¡o ANíShA LLWíS
¡6 VLKNON LLWíS
¡7 ShWL1A MAShKU
¡ö SNLhA MLh1A
Codbury Indio is o fuIIy owned subsidy of Iroff Foods Inc. The combinofion of Iroff
Foods ond Codbury creofes o qIoboI powerhouse in snocks, confecfionery ond quick meoIs.
Wifh onnuoI revenues of opproximofeIy Sb0 biIIion, fhe combined compony is fhe
worId´s second Iorqesf food compony, mokinq deIicious producfs for biIIions of
consumers in more fhon Io0 counfries. We empIoy opproximofeIy I40,000 peopIe ond
hove operofions in more fhon 70 counfries.
s
In Indio, Codbury beqon ifs operofions in I948 by imporfinq chocoIofes. Affer o0
yeors of exisfence, if fodoy hos five compony-owned monufocfurinq fociIifies of Thone,
Induri (Pune) ond MoIonpur (0woIior), 8onqoIore ond 8oddi (HimochoI Prodesh) ond 4
soIes offices (Mew DeIhi, Mumboi, IoIkofo ond Chennoi). The corporofe office is in
Mumboi.
Our core purpose "moke fodoy deIicious" copfures fhe spirif of whof we ore fryinq fo
ochieve os o business. We moke deIicious foods you con feeI qood obouf. Whefher
wofchinq your weiqhf or preporinq fo ceIebrofe, qrobbinq o quick bife or siffinq down fo
fomiIy niqhf, we pour our heorfs info creofinq foods fhof ore whoIesome ond deIicious.
W Codbury Indio operofes in four cofeqories
viz. ChocoIofe Confecfionery, MiIk Food Drinks,
Condy ond 0um cofeqory. In fhe ChocoIofe
Confecfionery business, Codbury hos moinfoined
ifs undispufed Ieodership over fhe yeors. Some
of fhe key bronds in Indio ore Codbury Doiry MiIk,
b Sfor, Perk, EcIoirs ond CeIebrofions.
W Codbury en¡oys o voIue morkef shore of over 707 - fhe hiqhesf
Codbury brond shore in fhe worIdl Our biIIion-doIIor brond Codbury Doiry
MiIk is considered fhe "qoId sfondord" for chocoIofes in Indio. The pure
fosfe of CDM defines fhe chocoIofe fosfe for fhe Indion consumer.
W In fhe MiIk Food drinks seqmenf our moin producf is 8ournvifo - fhe
Ieodinq MoIfed Food Drink (MFD) in fhe counfry. SimiIorIy in fhe
medicofed condy cofeqory HoIIs is fhe undispufed Ieoder. We recenfIy
enfered fhe qums cofeqory wifh fhe Iounch of our worIdwide dominonf
bubbIe qum brond 8ubboIoo. 8ubboIoo is soId in Zb counfries worIdwide.
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CADBURY OTHERS
"¶WÆ3¶¾Æ %WÆÆ%ÆÆÆ
%W 4ÆÆW%Æ ÆÆW¾3N
3ÆW33Æ 3WWÆ ±
ÐAW%Æ"
3¶NN¶W¾ N%W%Æ3ƾ%
WÆ 4W3ÆAÆÆ ¶¾3¶W
3%3.NWÆN·
"4W3ÆAÆÆ 3ÆW¾N ÐAW3¶%Æ"
%ƶN ¶N WAÆ 3ÆW3¶NÆ. WAÆ
ÆÆ3A%W%¶W¾ ¶N ÆA¶3% A3W¾
ÐAW3¶%Æ: WAÆ 4W33¶%3ƾ%
%W 4W¾%¶¾AWAN
¶33ÆWWÆ3ƾ% ¶¶33 ƾNAÆÆ
WAÆ 3ÆW3¶NÆ.
CHAIRMAN
C Y Pal
Chalrman ~ Non EXECUTIVE
ANAND
KRIPALU
Presldent, South Asla & Indo-Chlna
Managlng Dlrector ~ CADBURY INDIA
MANAGING DIRECTOR
Non-E×ecutlve Dlrectors
HARSH MARIWALA
RADHAKRISHNAN B. MENON
SURESH TALWAR
ATLL
BHATIA
ÐIRICTOR
R & D
CHANÐRAMOL
LI
VINKATISAN
ÐIRICTOR,
CHOCLATIS &
STRATIRGY
JAIBOY
PHILLIPS
ÐIRICTOR,
OPIRATIONS
NARAYAN
SLNÐARAM
AN
ÐIRICTOR,
BIVIRAGIS
GLMS &
CANÐY
RAJISH
GARG
ÐIRICTOR
IINANCI
RAJISH
RAMNATH
AN
ÐIRICTOR
HLMAN
RISOLRCI
SLNIL SITHI
ÐIRICTOR,
SALIS &
INTIRNATION
AL BLSINISS
The story of Cadbury Dairy MiIk started way back in
1905 at BournviIIe, U.K., but the journey with
chocoIate Iovers in India began in 1948.
The pure taste of Cadbury Dairy MiIk is the taste most Indians crave
for when they think of Cadbury Dairy MiIk.
The variants Fruit & Nut, CrackIe and Roast AImond, combine the
cIassic taste of Cadbury Dairy MiIk with a variety of ingredients and
are very popuIar amongst teens & aduIts.
RecentIy, Cadbury Dairy MiIk Desserts was Iaunched, specificaIIy to
cater to the urge for 'something sweet' after meaIs.
Cadbury Dairy MiIk has exciting products on offer - Cadbury Dairy MiIk
Wowie, chocoIate with Disney characters embossed in it, and Cadbury
Dairy MiIk 2 in 1, a deIightfuI combination of miIk chocoIate and white
chocoIate. Giving consumers an exciting reason to keep coming back
into the fun fiIIed worId of Cadbury
(öOburx [ölrx íllK höî bCCn thC mörKCt lCöOCr ln thC ChOCOlötC CötC¶Orx fOr xCörî. AnO
höî DörtlClDötCO önO bCCn ö Dört Of CvCrx ]nOlön'î mOmCntî Of höDDlnCîî. ìOx önO
CClCbrötlOn. TOOöx. (öOburx [ölrx íllK ölOnC hOlOî 3O+ völuC îhörC Of thC ]nOlön
ChOCOlötC mörKCt.
]n thC Cörlx 9O'î. ChOCOlötCî uCrC îCCn öî 'mCönt fOr KlOî'. uîuöllx ö rCuörO Or ö brlbC fOr
ChllOrCn. ]n thC ílO 9O'î thC CötC¶Orx uöî rC·OCflnCO bx thC vCrx DODulör RCöl TöîtC Of
IlfC' CömDöl¶n. îhlftln¶ thC fOCuî frOm ìuît fOr KlOî' tO thC KlO ln öll Of uî'. ]t
öDDCölCO tO thC ChllO ln CvCrx öOult. AnO (öOburx [ölrx íllK bCCömC thC DCrfCCt
C×DrCîîlOn Of 'îDOntönCltx' önO 'îhörCO ¶OOO fCClln¶î'.
ThC 'RCöl TöîtC Of IlfC' CömDöl¶n höO mönx mCmOröblC C×CCutlOnî. uhlCh DCODlC îtlll
fOnOlx rCmCmbCr. MOuCvCr. thC OnC ulth thC "¶lrl OönCln¶ On thC CrlCKCt flClO" höî
rCmölnCO CtChCO ln CvCrxOnC'î mCmOrx. öî thC mOît îDOntönCOuî + un·lnhlbltCO
C×DrCîîlOn Of höDDlnCîî.Thlî CömDöl¶n uCnt On tO bC öuörOCO 'ThC (ömDöl¶n Of thC
(Cnturx'. ln ]nOlö öt thC Abbx (AO (lub. íumbölI öuörOî.
]n thC lötC 9O'î. tO furthCr C×DönO thC CötC¶Orx. thC fOCuî îhlftCO tOuörOî ulOCnln¶
ChOCOlötC COnîumDtlOn ömOn¶ît thC möîîCî. thrOu¶h thC 'KhönCuölOn KO KhönC Kö
Böhönö (höhlxC' CömDöl¶n. Thlî CömDöl¶n bullt îOClöl öCCCDtönCC fOr ChOCOlötC
COnîumDtlOn ömOn¶ît öOultî. bx îhOuCöîln¶ COllCCtlvC önO îhörCO mOmCntî.
íOrC rCCCntlx. thC 'KuCh íCCthö MO 3ööxC' CömDöl¶n öîîOClötCO (öOburx [ölrx íllK
ulth CClCbrötOrx OCCöîlOnî önO thC DhröîC "!öDDu !öîî MO Göxö" bCCömC Dört Of îtrCCt
lön¶uö¶C. ]t höî bCCn öOODtCO bx COnîumCrî önO tOOöx lî uîCO C×tCnîlvClx tO C×DrCîî ìOx
ln ö mOmCnt Of öChlCvCmCnt / îuCCCîî.
!/· ´17ZL !Z\!7 0+ Lº+7´ «/// //· «/r/ ««o/o« ·o //· r//·/ //·/«
!/· `···««· · ´:Zº1¹ `ºL¹ /· /·r 7N!0¹`7N!´
:or/o« /«/· oc´·
0Z`1ZºóN ´¹7ZN77ZL0N ¹0 ¹7ZN7 ¹Z 3Z7ZNZ 07Z7º¹7´
!Z1ó7! 7/«·o/o« /··/«/· ·o·o¬o//·o «¬·o« //· ¬«····
`·r· 1··o//ø
0Z`1ZºóN ´¹107 `77!7Z 70 !Z¹7´
!Z1ó7! !· «···/«/· 0««/orø «/// ·/·/r//ø ·«·/·o
0Z`1ZºóN ´1Z111 1Z\\ 70 óZ¹Z´
!Z1ó7! 7o·or««· //··· «/· /«c· o«···« //· ··«¬· /· ·/·/r«/· «/// :«/rø `///
0Z`1ZºóN ´`º\\ 1ZLZ`111´
!Z1ó7! +·o·/o« ·o //· ««o//·
0Z`1ZºóN ´ZZ! 1Z7Lº !ZZ1º¹ 7ZºN´
!Z1ó7! !· ·/·/r«/· o«ø ««ø / ·«/«rø ««ø
How Cudburv Is mude?
1¦c cocoa-¦can -- '¦c ¦car' oí '¦c ·.cc'c·' dc¦:cac, :n '¦c .or¦d -- :· ¦:''cr'
1¦:· :· .¦,, u¡ 'o '¦c !3'¦ ccn'ur, ·o:c na':vc 'r:¦c· a'c on¦, '¦c ·.cc':·¦ í¦c·¦
oí '¦c cocoa íru:'. 1¦c, rcqardcd '¦c ¡rcc:ou· ¦can a· .a·'c or u·cd :', a· .a· '¦c
ca·c a:onq '¦c ^z'cc·, a· a íor: oí currcnc,.
The Vurieties
±The Hurvest
¿Iermentution
AÐryinu
=Cleuninu
6Roustinu
¬Croshinu und shellinu
SBlendinu
nGrindinu
Cocou Botter
Cocou Powder
±Kneudinu
¿Rollinu
AConchinu
/ Je¬~:J lc·ec~-r .- r|e ¡·eJ.cr.c: cl .|~r ..|| |~¡¡e: rc ncu· cc¬¡~:n- e×.-r.:· ¡·cJucr
-~|e-. [e¬~:J lc·ec~-r.:· .- r|e ~cr...rn cl e-r.¬~r.:· r|e cu~:r.rn cl ~ ¡·cJucr c· -e·..ce r|~r
cc:-u¬e·- ..|| ¡u·c|~-e. [e¬~:J lc·ec~-r.:· .:.c|.e- rec|:.cue- .:c|uJ.:· ¦cr| .:lc·¬~|
¬er|cJ-. -uc| ~- eJuc~reJ ·ue--e-. ~:J cu~:r.r~r..e ¬er|cJ-. -uc| ~- r|e u-e cl |.-rc·.c~|
-~|e- J~r~ c· cu··e:r J~r~ l·c¬ re-r ¬~·|er-. [e¬~:J lc·ec~-r.:· ¬~n ¦e u-eJ .:
¬~|.:· ¡·.c.:· Jec.-.c:-. .: ~--e--.:· luru·e c~¡~c.rn ·ecu.·e¬e:r-. c· .: ¬~|.:· Jec.-.c:- c:
.|er|e· rc e:re· ~ :e. ¬~·|er.
[r .cu|J ¦e ¦e-r rc Jere·¬.:e r|e Je¬~:J lc·ec~-r u-.:· ~ ¬u|r.-lu:cr.c:~| ~¡¡·c~c|.
[-r.¬~re cl eסecreJ Je¬~:J c.e· ~ -¡ec.l.eJ luru·e ¡e·.cJ. /|-c c~||eJ lc·ec~-r Je¬~:J.
|e .:¡ur- l·c¬ -~|e- ~:J ¬~·|er.:·. l.:~:ce. ~:J ¡·cJucr.c: -|cu|J ¦e cc:-.Je·eJ. |e
l.:~| Je¬~:J lc·ec~-r .- r|e cc:-e:-u- cl ~|| ¡~·r.c.¡~r.:· ¬~:~·e·-. `cu ¬~n ~|-c .~:r rc ¡ur
u¡ ~ `~|e- ~:J (¡e·~r.c:- ||~::.:· ··cu¡ cc¬¡c-eJ cl ·e¡·e-e:r~r..e- l·c¬ r|e J.lle·e:r
Je¡~·r¬e:r- r|~r ..|| ¦e r~-|eJ rc ¡·e¡~·e r|e Je¬~:J lc·ec~-r.
[ere·¬.:~r.c: cl r|e Je¬~:J lc·ec~-r- .- Jc:e r|·cu·| r|e lc||c..:· -re¡-.
- [ere·¬.:e r|e u-e cl r|e lc·ec~-r
- `e|ecr r|e .re¬- rc ¦e lc·ec~-r
- [ere·¬.:e r|e r.¬e |c·..c: cl r|e lc·ec~-r
- `e|ecr r|e lc·ec~-r.:· ¬cJe|.-`
- (~r|e· r|e J~r~
- l~|e r|e lc·ec~-r
- \~|.J~re ~:J .¬¡|e¬e:r ·e-u|r-
Description Forecast Horizon
Short-range Medium-range Long-range
Duration Usually less than
3 months.
maximum of 1
year
3 months to 3
years
More than 3
years
Applicability 1ob scheduling.
worker
assignments
Sales and
production
planning.
budgeting
New product
development.
facilities
planning
Description Qualitative Approach QUANTITATIVE APPROACH
Applicability Used when situation is vague &
little data exist (e.g.. new products
and technologies)
Used when situation is stable &
historical data exist
(e.g. existing products. current
technology)
Considerations Involves intuition and experience Involves mathematical techniques
Techniques 1ury of executive opinion
Sales force composite
Delphi method
Consumer market survey
Time series models
Causal models
1¦c '::c ¦or:zon oí '¦c íorcca·' :· c¦a··:í:cd a· ío¦¦o.·.
1¦crc arc '.o a¡¡roac¦c· 'o dc'cr::nc dc:and íorcca·' - (!) '¦c qua¦:'a':vc a¡¡roac¦, (2) '¦c quan':'a':vc a¡¡roac¦.
1¦c co:¡ar:·on oí '¦c·c '.o a¡¡roac¦c· :· ·¦o.n ¦c¦o..
ío. :· dc:and íorcca·' dc'cr::ncd·
Jn3íuru nlnn !Aeir nrc3uc!icn nrcce·· íu u·ina n !ime ·erie· me!Ac3 n· !Ai·
Aeln· Jn3íuru !c nccurn!elu nrc3uce !Ae nee3e3 nmcun! cf cAcccln!e n! !Ae
ccrrec! neric3 cf !ime. A !ime ·erie· ·Acn· Ai·!cricnl 3n!n !An! cnn íe u·e3
nn3 nnnlu·e3 !c nre3ic! fu!ure !ren3·. JAri·!mn· nn3 Ln·!er nre nenk
·ellina !ime· fcr nll cAcccln!e mnnufnc!ure· inclu3ina Jn3íuru, !Ai· i·
cí¡icu·lu íecnu·e cAcccln!e nrc3uc!· mnke acc3 aif!· fcr !Ae·e cccn·icn·.
7ime ·erie· nnnlu·i· 3ce· nc! exnlnin !Ae cn·unl reln!icn·Ain íe!neen
¡nriníle· t Acn !Aeu nill íe in fu!ure nl·c. I! ·imnlu n··ume· !An!nn·!
íeAn¡icur cf !Ae ¡nriníle nill ccn!inue in fu!ure nl·c. +ence !ime ·erie·
nnnlu·i· !rie· !c fin3 cu! !Ae fnc!cr· nAicA nffec! !Ae íeAn¡icur cf !Ae
¡nriníle. 7Ae cAnnae· in !Ae ¡nriníle c¡er n neric3 cf !ime nre 3i¡i3e3 in!c +
ccmncnen!·. 7Aeu nre -
7KL!]5
5LA5^!AL VAKIA7I^!5
J!JLIJAL VAKIA7I^!5
KA!]^V ¹LuJ7uA7I^!5
AdvunLuges
- Ihe data helps Cadlu·u to ·eduee
wasta«e aid p·oduee the a±ouit ol
p·oduets that eusto±e·s would pu·ehase.
~ Ihe data rs ·elralle rl eolleeted
p·ope·lu.aeeu·atelu.
~ Ihe lo·eeast helps Cadlu·u to ±ake
p·oduets ellrereitlu as rt helps
Cadlu·u to set a ta·«et ol the a±ouit ol
p·oduets ieeded. the·e a·e
alwaus eiou«h p·oduets to supplu to
eusto±e·s.
DIsudvunLuges
~ Cadlu·u ieed to have a lot ol past data ri o·de·
lo· the tr±e se·res
±ethod to le used aeeu·atelu to p·edret sales
lr«u·es.
~ ll the exte·ial eivr·oi±eit doesit stau stalle
thei the·e wrll le
p·olle±s wrth the lo·eeast lo· exa±ple rl the p·rees
ol the ·aw
±ate·rals used to p·oduee Cadlu·u p·oduets
rie·eases thei the p·ree ol
the p·oduet has to rie·ease ri o·de· lo· Cadlu·u to
±ake a p·olrt l·o±
the p·oduet p·odueed. Ihrs ±au alleet the eusto±e·s
pu·ehasri« t·eids.
~ Ihe data ±au le lrased o· ·ep·eseitatrve.
Ðemund orecusLIng
Jiiec. 1¦i· µioduei i· u biurd ¦oou¦ µioduei. ·o ij i¦cic i· u ·¦i·¦i ireicu·c ir i¦c µiiec.
i¦c dcnurd oj i¦c µioduei wi¦¦ icnuir urujjceicd. Jui ij i¦cic i· u dceicu·c ir i¦c µiiec.
i¦c dcnurd oj i¦c µioduei nuo ·¦i·¦i¦o ireicu·c.
¦reonc. ¦j i¦c ireonc oj i¦c µcoµ¦c ireicu·c·. i¦c dcnurd oj i¦c µioduei u¦·o ireicu·c·
urd ij i¦c ireonc oj i¦c µcoµ¦c dceicu·c·. i¦c dcnurd oj i¦c µioduei dceicu·c· bceuu·c
i¦cr µcoµ¦c wi¦¦ ·o joi ¦owci µiiec e¦oeo¦uic ¦ikc ce¦uii oi nc¦odo oj ¡·.i oi ¡·. 2. >o.
i¦cic i· u µo·iiivc ic¦uiior·¦iµ bciwccr ireonc urd i¦c µioduei dcnurd.
or·unci'· iu·ic urd µicjcicrec·. udbuio µioduecd ni¦k e¦oeo¦uic· bo u·ir· i¦c ¦i·¦
ouu¦iio oj eoeou bcur urd i¦c iu·ic ¦u· ·ii¦¦ icnuircd i¦c ·unc w¦ie¦ ¦u· ioue¦cd i¦c
¦cuii oj i¦c eor·unci·. >o. i¦co wi¦¦ roi ¦ikc io ·o joi uro oi¦ci µioduei.
onµciiiior. 1¦cic uic nuro eonµciiioi· ¦ikc udbuio ¯-·iui. ¦c·i¦c ¦ii-¦ui. Jui¦c ¦ox.
joici·r e¦oeo¦uic· (¦irc·c). ¹oicc cie. ir i¦c nuikci ·o ij i¦c µiiec oj i¦c eonµciiioi·
ireicu·c·. i¦c dcnurd oj i¦c duiio ni¦k u¦·o ireicu·c·. Jui ij i¦c µiiec oj i¦c eonµciiioi'·
dceicu·c. i¦c dcnurd oj i¦c duiio ni¦k· roi nue¦ ujjceicd bo ii.
Jiiec oj onµ¦cncriuio Good·. udbuio duiio ni¦k i· nudc jion i¦c ni¦k. ·u·ui. eoeou
bcur urd eoeou µowdci. ¦j i¦c µiiec oj i¦c·c eonµ¦cncriuio ·ood· ireicu·c· i¦cr i¦cic
wi¦¦ bc ro e¦ur·c ir i¦c dcnurd. Jceuu·c udbuio duiio ni¦k i· u biurd ¦oou¦ µioduei ·o
i¦cic wi¦¦ roi bc uro cjjcei or i¦c dcnurd oj i¦c µioduei.
Joµu¦uiior o ·c ·iouµ. 1¦i· µioduei i· ncuri joi i¦c e¦i¦dicr. udu¦i· urd u¦·o joi i¦c
o¦d µcoµ¦c ·o i¦c u·c ·iouµ· uic roi nue¦ ujjceicd i¦c dcnurd oj i¦c µioduei ·o dcnurd
icnuir ·unc urd bo i¦c ireicu·c ir i¦c µoµu¦uiior. i¦c dcnurd oj i¦c µioduei u¦·o
ireicu·c·.
dvciii·cncri eunµui·r. dvciii·cncri eunµui·r ¦u· µ¦uocd u viiu¦ io¦c ir uiiiueiir·
i¦c nujoi µuii oj i¦c µoµu¦uiior iowuid· i¦c udbuio duiio ni¦k.
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