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Project New West Paul Harstad, Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. September 20, 2010 Our Arizona 5th CD Poll Shows Mitchell Up 45% to Schweikert’s 44%

Harstad Strategic Research conducted a telephone survey among 509 likely voters in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District from September 13 to 16, 2010. The survey shows Harry Mitchell leading with 45% to 44% for David Schweikert, 6% for Libertarian Nick Coons, and 5% undecided. Among those who voice strong support for their candidate, Mitchell’s lead grows to 34% versus 28% for Schweikert. Our sample actually has a more Republican registration tilt than the district as whole. Among our sample, 46% are Republicans, 30% are Democrats, and the balance are unaffiliated, so if anything this survey skews a bit more conservative than the overall electorate. Mitchell does much better among Democrats (ahead 88% to 6%) than Schweikert does among Republicans (ahead 77% to 14%). But the pivotal bloc of Independents clearly leans toward Mitchell, preferring him by 51% to 29%.

Harstad Strategic Research has polled for President Obama since 2002, and counts five sitting U.S. Senators among its clients: Udall, Tester, Harkin, Reed and Bennet. Known for its accuracy in polling, the firm’s final tracking survey in Colorado in 2008 had Mark Udall’s margin within 0.3% of his final vote margin, and Barack Obama’s margin within 0.1% of his final vote spread in Colorado. The firm was also within 1% or 2% of Obama’s margin in virtually all of its other Battleground States in November 2008.