Professional Documents
Culture Documents
*
H.E. Shaikh Ahmad Fahad Al-Ahmad Al Sabah State of Kuwait
III
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V
______________________________________________________________________________
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* Until 11/10/2002.
VII
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V
Contents xi
CONTENTS
PREFACE ……...……………………………………..............................………… 1
PART ONE
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
IN OIL AND ENERGY
PART TWO
OAPEC ACTIVITIES IN 2002
APPENDICES
TABLES
PART ONE
CHAPTER ONE
CHAPTER TWO
PART TWO
CHAPTER ONE
5-1 Publications Issued and Distributed by the General Secretariat in
2002................................................................................... 184
5-2 General Secretariat Employees, 1968-2002............................... 185
5-3 General Secretariat Actual Expenditure by Budget Category,
1968-2002........................................................................... 186
FIGURES
PART ONE
CHAPTER ONE
1-1 Annual Change in World Supplies of Oil and NGLs, 1998-2002. 5
1-2 World Supplies of Oil and NGLs, 1998-2002…………………... 6
1-3 World Economic Growth Rate, 2001-2002…………..……………. 7
1-4 World Economic Growth and Oil Demand Growth, 1998-2002. 8
1-5 Change in World Oil Demand, 1998-2002………………………… 8
1-6 World Oil Demand by Major Economic Group, 1998-2002……. 9
1-7 OECD Demand for Oil by Region, 1998-2002…………………. 10
1-8 Total Oil Demand in the Developing Countries, 1998-2002…. 11
1-9 Total Oil Demand in the Countries in Transition, 1998-2002…… 12
1-10 Weekly Movement of OPEC’s Basket of Crudes, 2002………. 13
1-11 Crude Oil Prices in Nominal and Real Terms, 1970-2002……… 14
1-12 OECD Oil Inventories at Quarter End, 2001-2002……..……... 15
1-13 US Strategic Reserve at Quarter End, 2001-2002……..………… 15
1-14 Value of OAPEC Petroleum Exports in Current and Real Prices,
1970-2002…………………………………………………………….. 16
1-15 Per Capita Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries, 2002… 18
1-16 Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries by Source, 2002…… 19
1-17 Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries and the World,2001. 20
1-18 The Structure of Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries…… 20
1-19 Oil Consumption in the Arab Countries and the World, 2001…… 21
Contents xix
1-20 Natural Gas Consumption in the Arab Countries and the World,
2001…………………………………………………………………… 22
1-21 Energy Demand in OAPEC Member Countries, 2001-2002…... 23
1-22 Per Capita Energy Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries,
2002............................................................................................. 24
1-23 Energy Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries by Source,
2002…………………………………..........………………………….. 25
1-24 Petroleum Products’ Consumption Mix in OAPEC Member
Countries, 2002……………………………………………….……… 26
1-25 Natural Gas Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries, 1998-
2002…………………………………………………………………… 27
1-26 Member Countries’ Share of Total OAPEC Natural Gas
Consumption, 2002…....................................................................… 27
1-27 Relative Distribution of Final Energy Consumption by Source
and Sector in the Arab Countries, 2002…....................................… 29
1-28 Relative Distribution of Final Energy Consumption by Sector
and Source in the Arab Countries, 2000…………………………… 30
CHAPTER TWO
2-1 Seismic Surveys in OAPEC and Other Arab Countries, 87-2002.. 52
2-2 Active Drilling Rigs in OAPEC Members and Other Arab
Countries, 1998-2002………………………………………………... 53
2-3 Active Drilling Rigs Worldwide, End 2002……………………….. 53
2-4 Exploratory and Developmental Wells Drilled in OAPEC
Member Countries and Other Arab Countries, 98-2002………….. 55
2-5 Exploratory and Developmental Drilling in OAPEC Member
Countries and Other Arab Countries, 98-2002................................ 56
2-6 Oil Discoveries in OAPEC Member Countries and Other Arab
Countries, 1998-2002……………………………………………… 56
2-7 Gas Discoveries in OAPEC Member Countries and Other Arab
Countries,1997-2002………………………………………………… 57
2-8 World Oil Reserves by International Grouping, End 2002…….… 58
2-9 The Evolution of Oil Reserves in OAPEC Member Countries,
1998-2002……………………………………...……………………... 59
2-10 World Natural Gas Reserves, End 2002………..………………..… 61
2-11 The Evolution of Natural Gas Reserves in OAPEC and OPEC
Member Countries, 1998-2002…………………………………… 62
2-12 World Crude Oil Production by International Grouping, 2002… 65
xx Contents
CHAPTER THREE
FOREWORD
Despite the relative instability in the oil market in 2002, the market’s
main features gave a different impression. Prices remained stable within the
range agreed by OPEC members throughout the year, official output levels
remained unchanged from the start of the year, and the global economy
performed moderately well. The stability may be attributed to OPEC’s
assiduous monitoring of the oil market and intervention, whenever
necessary, to ward off undue deviations that would harm the interests of all
players in the oil industry and thereby maintain the stability that everyone
desires.
The price drop in the last quarter of 2001 to below the $18/barrel
threshold prompted OPEC members to start 2002 with a 1.5 million b/d cut
in output, bringing official quotas to 21.7 million b/d. In order to keep
prices stable at levels that suit both producers and consumers, it was
emphasized more than once in the course of the year that production levels
would remain unchanged.
The fruits of those prudent decisions quickly became apparent as non-
OPEC producers demonstrated their cooperation in the first half of 2002
and prices started to pick up in March. Thereafter they remained within
OPEC’s target price range of $22-$28 per barrel.
Throughout the year individual countries continued to try and raise
their economic growth rates above the low level of 2001. Economic
recovery efforts, particularly in the industrial countries, focused on
lowering interest rates, but they only had limited success. There was a slight
improvement in global economies generally and the US economy in
particular in 2002 following the wave of recession that had prevailed the
previous year, especially in the wake of 9/11. The improvement was
accompanied by a slight growth of about 200,000 b/d in world oil demand.
3
4 Development in Global Markets
In 2002 the economic state of the world’s main oil consuming regions,
namely the industrial countries, was worse than that forecast in the
preceding year. The growth rate of the three main industrial areas, namely
the USA, Japan, and Europe, was no more than 1.7% in 2002, which can
not be considered encouraging for growth in oil demand. The most notable
phenomenon in the last quarter of 2002 was a surplus of oil supplies that
resulted from the increased output of non-OPEC producers and the above-
quota output of some OPEC members.
When the global supply/demand balance became discernable, OPEC
members took the unprecedented step at the end of 2002 to raise official
output quotas by 1.3 million b/d to 23 million b/d from the beginning of
2003.
It should be noted that the official output levels approved by OPEC
members were the lowest in ten years. They had a significant impact on
member countries’ oil revenues, which fell from their 2001 level despite the
improvement in crude oil prices.
In this Report oil and energy consumption developments in the Arab
countries in general and OAPEC member countries in particular will be
evaluated. The Report will show that in the period 1998-2002 there was a
slowdown in energy consumption growth rates, which fell from 5.6% in
1998 to 2% in 2002. During this period, the share of natural gas in total
energy consumption rose from 39.5% in 1998 to 42.4% in 2002, while the
share of petroleum products declined from 56.7% to 54.4%.
In order to give a more comprehensive idea of all developments in the
world oil market in 2002 and related factors, this chapter will focus on basic
features of the world oil market, their impact on the petroleum revenues of
OAPEC member countries, as well as a review of oil and energy
consumption developments in the Arab countries.
1. Supplies
OPEC member states began 2002 by cutting their official output
quotas by 6.5%, or 1.5 million b/d, which reduced their total production to
21.7 million b/d, their lowest level in ten years, as shown in Table (1-1).
Factors Affecting the Oil market 5
The objective was to bolster prices, which had begun to slump in the
aftermath of the events of 11 September 2001 when the global economy
deteriorated and consequently world demand for oil declined.
Non-OPEC producers responded to OPEC’s call for more
cooperation. Angola, Mexico, Norway, Oman, and Russia implemented
cuts totaling 462,500 b/d. The compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC
producers with their agreed cuts served to boost prices. OPEC’s basket of
prices rose 50%, from $18.3/b in January 2002 to $27.4/b in September.
As a result of constantly monitoring the state of the world oil market,
OPEC countries confirmed that production quotas would remain at the 21.7
million b/d level. The first time was at the end of the first quarter and the
last at the end of the third quarter. At the end of 2002 the OPEC countries
adopted a different measure when they agreed to raise the official output
quota ceiling by 1.3 million b/d to 23.0 million b/d.
The decision to cut output that came into effect at the beginning of
2002 had a clear impact on OPEC’s share of total world supplies of oil and
natural gas liquids (NGLs). In 2002 it lost 2.3% of its share to non-OPEC
producers, leaving it with a 37.1% share compared with 39.4% in 2001.
In this way the OPEC countries’ production of crude oil and NGLs
declined, including that of Iraq, which is not subject to the quota system, by
2.0 million b/d in 2002, or 6.6% compared to the 2001 level, to stabilize at
28.3 million b/d. Meanwhile, non-OPEC output rose by 1.4 million b/d, or
3.0%, to 47.9 million b/d, as shown in Figure (1-1) and Table (1-2).
Figure 1-1
Annual Change in World Supplies of Oil and NGLs, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure 1-2
World Supplies of Oil and NGLs, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
78
76
74
72
70
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2. Demand
The US economy managed to survive the repercussions of 9/11 owing
to the good performance of the information technology sector. It achieved
an annual growth rate of about 2.2% in 2002, compared with 0.3% in 2001.
The shortest period of recession in US history was thus brought to an end.
Since the performance and recovery of other economies is closely
linked to growth rates in the US economy, the world economy in general
showed a moderate growth rate of about 2.8% in 2002, compared with
2.2% in 2001.
Factors Affecting the Oil market 7
Figure 1-3
World Economic Growth Rate, 2001-2002
(%)
5
4
2.8
3
2.2
2
-1
OECD Countries in Developing Africa Latin World
countries transition countries America
2001 2002
The 2002 increase in demand was the lowest since 1998, during the
Asian crisis, when it measured 300,000 b/d, as shown in Figure (1-5) and
Table (1-5).
Figure 1-4
World Economic Growth and Oil Demand Growth, 1998-2002
(%)
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure 1-5
Change in World Oil Demand, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
1.5
0.5
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Factors Affecting the Oil market 9
Oil demand trends varied from one group to another. In the industrial
countries demand fell by 100,000 b/d to 47.6 million b/d, while in the
developing countries it rose by 300,000 b/d. In the countries in transition oil
demand remained stagnant at its 2001 level of 4.6 million b/d, as shown in
Figure (1-6) and Table (1-6).
Figure 1-6
World Oil Demand by Major Economic Group, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure 1-7
OECD Demand for Oil by Region, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
30
20
10
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure 1-8
Total Oil Demand in the Developing countries, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
26
24
22
20
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure 1-9
Total Oil Demand in the Countries in Transition,
1998-2002
(Million b/d)
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
3. Price Trends
Figure 1-10
Weekly Movement of OPEC’s Basket of Crudes, 2002
($/b)
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
November
September
December
March
August
May
October
April
June
January
February
July
The spot price levels of various Arab crude oils recovered well in
2002 and increased by between $0.7 and $4.4 per barrel over 2001 prices,
as shown in Table (1-11).
The increase in real 1995 crude oil prices amounted to about $0.8 per
barrel adjusted by the deflator of GDP in the OECD countries, bringing the
average to $22.1/b in 2002.
The nominal price, on the other hand, increased by about $1.2/b, as
shown in Figure (1-11) and Table (1-12).
14 Development in Global Markets
Figure 1-11
Crude Oil Prices in Nominal and Real Terms, 1970-2002
($/b)
70
Real 1995 Prices
60
Nominal Price
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
4. Oil Inventories
Figure 1-12
OECD Oil Inventories at Quarter End, 2001 and 2002
(Million barrels)
2650
2001 2002
2600
2550
2500
2450
2400
First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter
Figure 1-13
US Strategic Reserve at Quarter End, 2001 and 2002
(Million barrels)
600
590 2001 2002
580
570
560
550
540
530
520
510
First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter
16 Petroleum Export Revenues of OAPEC Members
Figure 1-14
Value of OAPEC Petroleum Exports in Current and Real Prices, 1970-2002
($ billion)
450
400
Current Prices
200
150
100
50
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Development in Global markets 17
1. Arab Countries
Figure 1-15
Per Capita Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries, 2002
(boe/year)
12
10
0
OAPEC member Other Arab countries Total Arab countries
countries
This will bring local benefits, enhance the Arab countries’ position
vis-à-vis oil exports, and allow them to expand their role in stabilizing the
world oil market.
The Arab countries rely almost entirely on oil and natural gas to meet
their energy requirements as these two sources account for over 96.7% of
their total energy consumption.
There was a significant change in the pattern of energy consumption
in the Arab countries in the period 1998-2002, as the share of natural gas
rose from 39% in 1998 to 42% in 2002 owing to its expanded use in power
generation.
The increase was at the expense of oil, whose share declined from
56.3% to 54.8% in the same period. The relative importance of
hydroelectricity and coal also declined, as their combined share dropped
from 3.8% to 3.3% of total consumption in the same period, as shown in
Figure (1-16) and Table (1-17).
The Arab countries’ share of world energy consumption amounted to
3.9% in 2001, while that of the OECD countries accounted for 59.0%, the
countries in transition for 11.2%, and the remaining developing countries
for 25.9%, as shown in Figure (1-17).
Figure 1-16
Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries by Source, 2002
(Thousand boe/d)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Petroleum Natural Gas Hydroelectricity Coal
products
20 Oil and Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries
Figure 1-17
Energy Consumption in the Arab countries and the World, 2001
(%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Arab countriesOECD countries Countries in Other
transition Developing
countries
Figure 1-18
The Structure of Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries,
2002
Petroleum
products
54.8%
Natural Gas
42.0%
Hydroelectricity Coal
2.0% 1.2%
Development in Global markets 21
Figure 1-19
Oil Consumption in the Arab Countries and the World, 2001
(%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Arab OECD Countries in Other
countries countries transition Developing
countries
Figure 1-20
Natural Gas Consumption in the Arab Countries and the World, 2001
(%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Arab OECD Countries in Other
countries countries transition Developing
countries
1-2-3 Hydroelectricity
There was a decline in hydroelectricity’s share of total energy
consumption in the Arab countries owing to the limited supply from
waterfalls. Hydroelectricity accounted for a mere 2.05% of total Arab
energy requirements in 2002, compared with 2.58% in 1998, as shown in
Table (1-17). Hydroelectricity use is limited to a few Arab countries led by
Egypt, followed by Iraq, Morocco, Syria, Algeria, Sudan, and Lebanon.
Development in Global markets 23
1-2-4 Coal
Coal is only consumed in a few Arab countries since its reserves are
limited and it only meets a tiny percentage of total energy requirements in
the Arab countries. In the period 1998-2002 it accounted for just 1.23% of
total Arab energy consumption. Morocco is the major user among the Arab
states, with an estimated consumption of about 55,000 boe/d in 2002. Egypt
comes in second place with a consumption of about 16,000 boe/d, followed
by Algeria with 14,000 boe/d. Tunisia also consumes small quantities of
coal.
Figure 1-21
Energy Demand in OAPEC Member Countries, 2001 and 2002
(Thousand boe/d)
2000
1800 2001 2002
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Egypt
Bahrain
Iraq
Qatar
UAE
Algeria
Libya
Arabia
Syria
Tunisia
Kuwait
Saudi
24 Oil and Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries
Saudi Arabia was the biggest consumer of energy among the Arab
countries, accounting for about 28.6% of total OAPEC use. It was followed
by Egypt with 15.6%, the UAE with 11.4%, Algeria with 9.8%, Iraq with
8.4%, Qatar with 6.3%, and Libya with 5%. Per capita use in OAPEC
member countries rose slightly to 12.6 boe from 12 boe in 1998. The lack
of any tangible increase in per capita energy use may be attributed to a
population growth rate that exceeded the energy use growth rate. Qatar has
the highest rate of per capita energy use among OAPEC members with 256
boe in 2002, followed by Bahrain with 98 boe.
The high rates of per capita energy use in Qatar and Bahrain are due
to their huge industrialization programs, the dependence of their local
economies on energy-intensive industries, the high contribution of
manufacturing industries to their local economies, and the high standard of
living and urban expansion. In third place comes the UAE with 79 boe,
followed by Kuwait with 51 boe, Saudi Arabia with 29 boe, and Libya with
20 boe. In the remaining OAPEC countries per capita consumption ranges
between 5 boe (Tunisia) and 8 boe (Iraq), as shown in Figure (1-22) and
Table (1-18).
Figure 1-22
Per Capita Energy Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries, 2002
(boe)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Bahrain
Egypt
Iraq
Qatar
UAE
Algeria
Libya
Arabia
Syria
Tunisia
Kuwait
Saudi
Figure 1-23
Energy Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries by Source, 2002
(Thousand boe/d)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Petroleum Natural Gas Hydroelectricity Coal
products
Figure 1-24
Petroleum Products’ Consumption Mix in OAPEC Member Countries,
2002
(%)
Crude Oil
8.5%
Jet Fuel
LPG
4.6% Kerosene
8.7%
2.7% Gasoline
19.5%
Figure 1-25
Natural Gas Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries, 1998 and 2002
(Thousand boe/d)
800
1998 2002
600
400
200
0
Bahrain
Egypt
Iraq
Qatar
UAE
Algeria
Libya
Arabia
Syria
Tunisia
Kuwait
Saudi
Moreover, natural gas accounts for about half of total energy use in
Libya and about a third in Egypt, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, as shown in
Figure (1-26).
Saudi Arabia represented 22% of total OAPEC natural gas
consumption in 2002, followed by Egypt and the UAE with 14.7% each in
second place. Next came Algeria and Qatar with about 13% each, and then
Bahrain with 5.6%.
Figure 1-26
Member Countries’ Shares of Total OAPEC Natural Gas Consumption, 2002
(%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Egypt
Bahrain
Iraq
Qatar
UAE
Algeria
Libya
Arabia
Syria
Tunisia
Kuwait
Saudi
28 Oil and Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries
Figure 1-27
Relative Distribution of Final Energy Consumption by Source and Sector in
the Arab Countries, 2000
120
0.2
100
19.9
80 40.6
66.8
60
40 79.9 34.7
20 33.2 24.7
0
Electricity Natural Gas Oil Coal
Figure 1-28
Relative Distribution of Final Energy Consumption by Sector and Source in
the Arab Countries, 2000
1.4 0.1
100
7.8
27.2
80
42.2
60
99.9 51.7
40
48.6
20
21.1
0
Industrial Sector Transport Sector Other Sectors
5. Domestic Prices
In some Arab states energy pricing policy forms part of general
economic programs aimed at moving toward a market economy. In others
pricing policy tends to be flexible, aimed at balancing prices and increasing
them gradually so as to bring prices in the local market in line with those on
the international market.
In most Arab countries there were no changes in 2002 in the prices of
petroleum products, which remained at their previous level. Tables (1-27)
and (1-28) set out the domestic prices of petroleum products in OAPEC
member countries.
There was a significant increase in petroleum product prices in Syria
in mid-May 2002. Super gasoline rose in price from 20.3 Syrian liras (SL)
per liter to SL24.1/liter, regular gasoline rose from SL19.8/liter to
SL23.8/liter, and kerosene from SL6.7/liter to SL9.2/liter. The price of a
12-kg liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinder went up from SL101 to
SL140.
Petroleum product prices in Jordan were raised in 2001, when the
price of regular gasoline went from 241 fils/liter to 275 fils, super gasoline
jumped from 321 fisl/liter to 370 fils, unleaded gasoline went up from 371
fils/liter to 425 fils, kerosene increased from 91 fils/liter to 110 fils, and
diesel went up from 106 fils/liter to 110 fils.
36 Tables
Source:
- OPEC Weekly Oil Market Report, various issues .
Tables 37
Table 1-2
Annual changes in World Oil and NGLs Supply, 1998 - 2002
(Million b/d)
Total Supply
Annual Change
* Preliminary estimates.
Note: Parentheses denote negative figures.
Sources:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
- Reports from OPEC, CGES.
38 Tables
Table 1-3
World Economic Growth, 1998-2002
(%)
Table 1-4
Growth in the World Economy and Oil Demand by Region,
1998-2002
(%)
OECD countries
GDP 2.4 3.4 3.8 0.8 1.7
Oil demand 0.2 1.7 0.4 (0.2) (0.2)
Developing countries
GDP 3.5 3.9 5.8 3.9 4.2
Oil demand 1.4 3.1 3.9 0.8 1.3
Countries in transition
GDP (0.8) 3.6 6.3 5.0 3.9
Oil demand (1.7) (6.7) 2.4 6.9 0.0
World total
GDP 2.6 3.6 4.7 2.2 2.8
Oil demand 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.3
* Preliminary estimates.
Note: Parentheses denote negative figures.
Sources:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
- Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, (PIW), various issues.
- Reports from OPEC, CGES and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
40 Tables
Table 1-5
Total & Annual Change in World Oil Demand, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
Annual Change in
0.3 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.2
World Oil Demand
Change (%) 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.3
Sources:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
- Reports from OPEC, CGES.
Table 1-6
World Oil Demand by Region, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
* Preliminary estimates.
Sources:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
- Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, (PIW), various issues.
- Reports from Center for Global Energy Studies, (CGES).
Tables 41
Table 1-7
Total & Annual Change in Oil Demand in OECD
Countries, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
* Preliminary estimates.
Sources:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
- Reports from OPEC, CGES.
42 Tables
Table 1-8
Total & Annual Change in Oil Demand in Developing
Countries, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
Total Middle East and Africa 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.3 7.4
* Preliminary estimates.
Sources:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
- Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, (PIW), various issues.
- Reports from OPEC, CGES.
Tables 43
Table 1-9
Total & Annual Change in Oil Demand in Countries
in Transition, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
* Preliminary estimates.
** Excluding countries that joined the OECD.
Note: Parentheses denote negative figures.
Sources:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
- Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, (PIW), various issues.
- Reports from OPEC, CGES.
44 Tables
Table 1-10
Spot Price of OPEC Basket of Crudes, 1998-2002
($/barrel)
Sources:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
- OPEC reports.
Tables 45
Table 1-11
Average Spot Prices of the OPEC Basket and Selected
Arab Crudes, 1998-2002
($/barrel)
Price
Crudes 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Change
2002
Table 1-12
Nominal and Real Prices of Crude Oil, 1970-2002
($/barrel)
Table 1-13
Total OECD 2488 2584 2564 2610 2627 2576 2581 2512
Rest of the World 1020 1039 1084 1062 1108 1086 1024 1099
Other Inventories** 935 898 922 901 931 914 901 915
Total Commercial 4443 4521 4571 4573 4666 4576 4506 4526
Days Supply 67.4 68.7 68.0 67.9 68.5 67.2 66.4 66.1
Usable Commercial*** 783 838 890 887 973 877 817 817
Days Supply 11.9 12.8 13.3 13.4 14.4 13.0 12.2 11.9
* Preliminary estimates.
** Oil At Sea and Independent storage.
*** Stock holding over the above minimum operating needs (55 days).
Sources:
- OAPEC - Economics Department
- Reports from OPEC.
48 Tables
Table 1-14
Value of OAPEC Oil Exports in Current and
Real Prices, 1970-2002
($ Billion)
Expressed in
Year At Current Prices
Real 1995 Prices
1970 8.6 37.1
1971 11.4 46.2
1972 14.2 54.4
1973 22.4 79.4
1974 74.6 235.3
1975 67.1 190.1
1976 82.5 215.4
1977 91.1 219.5
1978 88.7 197.6
1979 145.6 299.0
1980 213.7 398.7
1981 198.4 338.6
1982 142.6 226.7
1983 101.4 152.7
1984 95.7 137.5
1985 83.0 114.5
1986 51.5 68.7
1987 63.8 82.4
1988 59.7 74.3
1989 78.6 94.0
1990 97.4 111.7
1991 85.6 94.0
1992 92.6 98.8
1993 83.3 86.8
1994 83.0 84.8
1995 93.7 93.7
1996 108.7 106.9
1997 110.0 106.4
1998 76.8 73.4
1999 109.7 103.6
2000 175.4 163.5
2001 148.8 137.0
2002* 131.5 119.5
* Preliminary estimates.
Note: Real revenues are obtained by deflating current prices by the GDP Deflator
of industrial countries as published by the IMF.
Source:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
Tables 49
Table 1-15
Petroleum Revenues in OAPEC Member Countries,
1998-2002
($ Million)
* Preliminary estimates.
** Preliminary estimates indicate that oil consumption exceeds oil production.
Sources:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
- OPEC reports.
50 Tables
Table 1-16
Per Capita Petroleum Revenues in OAPEC Member Countries,
2001 and 2002
(Dollar)
2001 2002*
* Preliminary estimates.
Source:
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
Tables 51
Table 1-17
Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries, 1998-2002
(Thousand boe/d)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002*
A. By Source
Petroleum products **
Member countries 3047 3148 3256 3307 3352
Other Arab countries 506 532 532 547 562
Total Arab countries 3553 3679 3788 3854 3914
Natural gas
Member countries 2369 2587 2781 2855 2925
Other Arab countries 57 58 61 64 77
Total Arab countries 2426 2646 2842 2919 3002
Hydroelectricity
Member countries 133 115 112 112 112
Other Arab countries 27 28 30 32 34
Total Arab countries 160 143 142 144 146
Coal
Member countries 31 31 32 32 32
Other Arab countries 46 45 53 54 56
Total Arab countries 77 76 85 86 88
B. By Groups
Member countries 5580 5881 6181 6307 6421
Other Arab countries 636 664 676 697 730
Total Arab countries 6216 6545 6857 7004 7151
* Preliminary estimates.
** Petroleum products include crude oil used in power plants.
Sources:
52 Tables
Table 1-18
Per Capita Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries,
1998 and 2002
(Boe/year)
1998 2002*
* Preliminary estimates.
Sources:
- Country papers presented to the Seventh Arab Energy Conference, Cairo, 11 -14 May 2002.
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
Tables 53
Table 1-19
Energy Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries,
1998-2002
(Thousand boe/d)
* Preliminary estimates.
** Including energy consumption in the oil industry .
Sources:
- Country papers presented to the Seventh Arab Energy Conference, Cairo, 11 - 14 May 2002.
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
54 Tables
Table 1-20
Energy Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries by Source,
1998-2002
(Thousand boe/d)
Coal 31 31 32 32 32
* Preliminary estimates.
** Including energy consumption of the power plants.
Sources:
- Country papers presented to the Seventh Arab Energy Conference, Cairo, 11 - 14 May 2002.
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
Tables 55
Table 1-21
Petroleum Products' Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries,
1998-2002
(Thousand boe/d)
Bahrain 21 20 22 23 25
Qatar 23 22 23 23 24
Tunisia 81 83 85 87 88
* Preliminary estimates.
** Figures include energy consumption of the power plants.
*** Figures include energy consumption of the oil sector and power plants.
**** Figures include consumption of ships fuel.
Sources:
- Country papers presented to the Seventh Arab Energy Conference, Cairo, 11 - 14 May 2002.
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
56 Tables
Table 1-22
Natural Gas Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries,
1998-2002
(Thousand boe/d)
* Preliminary estimates.
Sources:
- Country papers presented to the Seventh Arab Energy Conference, Cairo, 11 - 14 May 2002.
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
Tables 57
Table 1-23
Hydroelectricity Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries,
1998-2002
(Thousand boe/d)
* Preliminary estimates.
Sources:
- Country papers presented to the Seventh Arab Energy Conference, Cairo, 11 - 14 May 2002.
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
Table 1-24
Coal Consumption in OAPEC Member Countries,
1998-2002
(Thousand boe/d)
* Preliminary estimates.
Sources:
- Country papers presented to the Seventh Arab Energy Conference, Cairo, 11 - 14 May 2002.
58 Tables
Table 1-25
Relative Distribution of Final Energy Consumption According to
Sources and Sectors in OAPEC Member and Other Arab
Countries in 2000
(%)
Industrial Transport
Others * Total
Sector Sector
Table 1-26
Forcast of Energy Consumption in the Arab Countries
(Thousand boe/d)
Table 1-27
Domestic Prices of Petroleum Products in OAPEC
Member Countries, 2002
(Local currency/liter)
Algeria Dinar 19 17 - 11 6
Qatar Dirham 70 60 55 - 83
UAE Fils 87 80 77 86 80
* Per kilogram.
** Per cylinder.
*** Unleaded gasoline
Sources:
- Country papers presented to the Seventh Arab Energy Conference, Cairo, 11 - 14 May 2002.
- OAPEC - Economics Department.
Tables 61
Table 1-28
Domestic Prices of Petroleum Products in OAPEC
Member Countries, 2002
(Cents/liter)*
Algeria 24 21 ـ 13
Bahrain 27 21 7 19
Egypt 22 20 9 9
Iraq ** 25 20 3 5
Kuwait 22 20 18 18
Libya 11 8 5 9
Qatar 19 16 15 -
Saudi Arabia 24 - 12 10
Syria 49 49 18 18
Tunisia 47 45 13 26
UAE 24 22 21 23
After long delays compared with the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa,
exploratory drilling activity started in deep offshore areas (in water depths
of over 1500 feet) in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, and New Zealand. China
is planning to announce new concessions covering a large unexplored area
to the east of the country. However, in all these regions there is a higher
probability of finding natural gas than oil.
In 2002 the major oil and gas discoveries were made in deep offshore
areas in West Africa, Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico, South-east Canada, and
Malaysia. Other offshore discoveries were made in the North Sea, for the
first time to the far north of the Faeroes, in the Caspian Sea, Australia, and
Trinidad.
Significant gas discoveries were made in Mongolia, the Philippines,
and in offshore areas east of India. Canada added 174.8 billion barrels of
unconventional oil to its reserves, which represents 7% of the country’s
huge reserves of natural bitumen and can be produced using current
technology. Mexico, on the other hand, following a reappraisal of its oil
reserves, announced a significant reduction in their size for the second time
in five years.
The trend of international petroleum companies to merge, which had
started in 1998, continued in 2002, but the companies affected tended to be
smaller than those in previous years owing to the fierce competition they
faced from the giant oil companies. One of the biggest mergers in 2002 was
between Pan Canadian and Alberta Energy, which formed En-Cana.
Moreover, Dutch-British Shell bought the British company Inter-Brazil.
The giant companies resulting from mergers are finding it difficult to meet
the targets set at the time of merger, mainly due to the rise in the
exploration and development costs of oil and natural gas, which spiraled
60% to $6.33 per barrel.
Despite the relative drop in oil prices and production at the end of
2001 and the beginning of 2002, the oil companies increased their
investments in developing new reserves. The 15 biggest oil companies in
the world spent about $35.4 billion in the first nine months of 2002, which
was approximately what they spent in the whole of 2001.
The oil and gas industry in the Arab region witnessed a growth in
activity on all fronts in 2002. The number of crews working in seismic
surveying increased, despite a decline in this activity worldwide from its
2001 level. Exploratory drilling also increased, resulting in 75 new oil and
gas discoveries covering most of the Arab oil producing countries. Oil and
gas were also discovered on the coast of Mauritania, which raises hopes of
50 Oil and Gas
more discoveries being made in extensive areas off the Atlantic coast of
Arab North Africa. Most Arab oil producing countries implemented
development projects aimed at maintaining or increasing their oil
production capacity.
In terms of developing natural gas discoveries, Libya signed contracts
for major works on the West Libya Gas Project, which is expected to come
on stream in 2004. With an expected output of 10 billion cubic meters of
dry gas per annum, it is the biggest and most significant petroleum project
to be implemented in Libya. Qatar is executing projects to expand the
output capacity of its LNG production lines and is planning to become the
world’s biggest producer of LNG. At the same time, the initial engineering
plans were implemented for the first project to convert natural gas to liquids
and bids for the engineering, construction, and installation works are
currently being evaluated.
The project is scheduled to start commercial production at the end of
2005 with an initial production capacity of 34,000 b/d. It is the first in a
series of similar projects currently under study that, when completed, will
make Qatar the center of the industry for converting gas into liquids.
A significant event in Arab cooperation in 2002 was the
announcement by the energy ministers of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and
Syria that they had set up the Arab Gas Authority, which would take charge
of operations related to implementing the project for transporting Egyptian
natural gas to the other three Arab states and subsequently to Cyprus and
Turkey.
They also announced that technical studies would be conducted on
increasing the gas export capacity. It was also decided that the four
countries would have equal shares in the new Arab Gas Transportation and
Marketing Company and that each country would be responsible for
financing and constructing the gas pipelines passing through its territory.
Egypt started building the section in its territory that links El-Arish on the
Mediterranean with Aqaba on the Red Sea in Jordan.
A new company belonging to Kuwait Petroleum Corporation was
formed in 2002 under the name Kuwait Gulf Oil Company to replace the
Arabian Oil Company (Japan), whose 40-year concession ends at the
beginning of 2003.
The new company will undertake all offshore oil activities in the area
shared by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, including exploration, drilling, field
development, oil and gas transportation and treatment, and oil refinery
management.
Developments of Energy Resourses 51
Figure 2-1
Seismic Surveying Activity in OAPEC and Other Arab Countries,
1998-2002
(Crew/month)
500
400
300
200
100
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure 2-2
Active Drilling Rigs in OAPEC Members and Other Arab Countries,
1998-2002
200
150
100
50
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure 2-3
Active Drilling Rigs Worldwide,
End 2002
1987
Rest of World
28.4% Rigs
Arab Countries
11.5%
North America
60.1%
Figure 2-4
Exploratory and Developmental Wells Drilled in OAPEC Member Countries
and Other Arab Countries, 1998-2002
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure 2-5
Exploratory and Developmental Drilling in OAPEC Member Countries and
Other Arab Countries, 1998-2002
(Linear kilometers)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure 2-6
Oil Discoveries in OAPEC Member Countries and Other Arab Countries,
1998-2002
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Figure 2-7
Gas Discoveries in OAPEC Member Countries and Other Arab Countries,
1998-2002
25
20
15
10
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Egypt upheld its position at the head of those Arab countries that
made discoveries in 2002, with a total of 32 oil discoveries and 22 gas.
Algeria and Libya made three oil discoveries each, Tunisia made two oil
discoveries and one gas, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia made two oil discoveries
each, Syria made three gas discoveries, and Iraq made two gas discoveries.
Non-OAPEC Arab countries made 25 oil and gas discoveries, of
which Oman accounted for 8 oil discoveries and 3 gas, Yemen for 9 oil
discoveries, and Sudan for 5 oil discoveries.
It should be noted that the number of discoveries mentioned above is
only provisional and that other discoveries may be announced later,
particularly since some exploratory wells drilled in the course of the year
have yet to be tested, despite giving encouraging results.
400 million barrels), and some other countries (by no more than 250 million
barrels each). On the other hand, the estimated reserves of Mexico declined
by about 14.3 billion barrels, those of China by about 5.75 billion barrels,
and some other countries by less than 250 million barrels each, including
the UK.
The estimated oil reserves of OAPEC member countries and other
Arab states remained unchanged. It should be noted that estimates of world
oil reserves in this report do not include the increase of about 175 billion
barrels in Canada’s estimated reserves in 2002, because it is believed that
the increase includes recoverable oil from tar sands, which are not usually
included in figures for conventional sources of crude oil.
Major developments in the estimated reserves of crude oil and
condensates in 2002 are summarized by international grouping below and
shown in Figure (2-8) and Table (2-6).
Figure 2-8
World Oil Reserves by International Grouping, End 2002
1068.8
CIS
Billion barrels
Non-Arab 7.3%
OPEC
20.0%
North America
3.7%
Others OAPEC
8.9% Members
60.1%
for about 60.1% of world estimated reserves, which totaled 1068.8 billion
barrels, and the Arab states together accounted for 61.1% of the world total.
Figure (2-8) shows the shares of OAPEC members and other international
groupings of estimated world oil reserves at the end of 2002.
Figure 2-9
The Evolution of Oil Reserves in OAPEC and OPEC Member Countries,
1998-2002
(Billion barrels at year end)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
OPEC Countries
Venezuela contributed to a slight increase in OPEC’s estimated oil
reserves at the end of 2002. The increase, of no more than 120 million
barrels, brought the organization’s total estimated reserves to about 77.81
billion barrels, which was 0.2% more than its total of 77.69 billion barrels
at the end of 2001.
The estimated reserves of other OPEC countries remained unchanged,
totaling about 848.83 billion barrels, compared with 848.71 billion at the
end of 2001. OPEC member states account for about 79.4% of the
world’s estimated proven oil reserves.
Figure (2-9) shows the evolution of OPEC and OAPEC members’ oil
reserves in the period 1998-2002.
60 Oil and Gas
North Sea
Norway’s estimated oil reserves rose by 8.7% from 9.45 billion
barrels in 2001 to 10.27 billion at the end of 2002. The UK’s estimated oil
reserves, on the other hand, continued the downward pattern of previous
years and dropped by 4.3%, from 4.93 billion. This group accounts for
1.4% of world oil reserves.
North America
Mexico’s estimated oil reserves declined by more than half in 2002,
falling 53.2% from 26.94 billion barrels in 2001 to 12.62 billion. It is
believed that the change is attributable to an updating of its proven reserve
estimates according to the latest data. US estimates of proven oil reserves,
on the other hand, increased 1.8%, from 22.05 billion barrels in 2001 to
22.45 billion at the end of 2002. Canada’s estimated proven reserves
remained unchanged from their 2001 level of about 4.86 billion barrels,
although some sources estimated Canada’s reserves at about 180 billion
barrels at the end of 2001and 2002. It is thought that these estimates include
unconventional oils that are expected to be extracted from tar sands in the
north of Alberta.
The countries of this group account for 3.7% of total world oil
reserves.
There were both increases and decreases among the countries of this
group. The increases were recorded in several countries, most importantly
Ecuador with a rise of about 2.5 billion barrels, India with a rise of about
572 million barrels, and Denmark with a rise of about 234 million barrels.
The estimated oil reserves of several countries declined by the
amounts they produced during the year, including those of Brazil and
Argentina.
This group accounts for 4.8% of the world’s total oil reserves.
Figure 2-10
World Natural Gas Reserves, End 2002
172.7
CIS
32.0%
Trillion cubic meters
OAPEC
Others Members
12.0% 29.3%
Non-Arab
North America
OPEC
4.1%
22.6%
62 Oil and Gas
Figure 2-11
The Evolution of Natural Gas Reserves in OAPEC and
OPEC Member Countries, 1998-2002
(Billion cubic meters at year end)
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
OPEC Countries
The OPEC countries’ estimated reserves of natural gas in 2002 rose
20%, or by 14.56 trillion cubic meters, from 72.84 trillion cubic meters at
the end of 2001 to about 87.4 trillion at the end of 2002. Qatar accounted
for about 10.9 trillion cubic meters of the increase, Iran for about 3.6
trillion, and Indonesia and Venezuela for limited amounts. The estimated
natural gas reserves of the other members remained almost unchanged.
OPEC countries’ reserves represent about 50.6% of world natural gas
reserves. Figure (2-11) shows the evolution of OPEC members’ natural gas
reserves in the period 1998-2002.
North Sea
Norway’s estimated proven reserves of natural gas rose 75.5%, from
about 1.25 trillion cubic meters at the end of 2001 to about 2.19 trillion at
the end of 2002. In contrast, the UK’s reserves declined 5.2%, from 735
billion cubic meters to 697 billion in the same period.
Norway and the UK together account for 1.7% of the world’s total
estimated reserves of natural gas.
North America
The estimated natural gas reserves of this group was affected by the
70.2% decline in Mexico’s reserves, which dropped from 835 billion cubic
meters at the end of 2001 to 249 billion at the end of 2002. The decline
coincided with Mexico’s decline in estimated oil reserves, which is
probably due to an updating of declared estimates.
The estimated reserves of the USA, on the other hand, rose 3.4%,
from about 5 trillion cubic meters at the end of 2001 to about 5.2 trillion at
the end of 2002, while those of Canada rose 0.6%, from 1691 billion cubic
meters to about 1702 billion in the same period.
The countries of this group account for 4.1% of total world reserves of
natural gas.
rise of about 725 billion cubic meters in the reserves of Azerbaijan. China’s
estimated reserves of natural gas also rose, from about 1.37 trillion cubic
meters at the end of 2001 to about 1.5 trillion at the end of 2002, an
increase of 10.4%.
This group of countries accounts for 32.9% of total world reserves of
natural gas. The CIS alone accounts for the lion’s share of world reserves,
with a 32% share of the total.
This group account for 8.6% of total world reserves of natural gas.
Figure 2-12
World Crude Oil Production by International Grouping, 2002
CIS
Others 13.4%
29.0%
OAPEC
Members
27.4%
Non-Arab OPEC
13.4% North America
16.7% 66.6
Million b/d
OPEC Countries
The OPEC countries’ oil production declined 6.3% in 2002, from
about 27.4 million b/d in 2001 to about 25.7 million b/d. The slump was
due to the instability of supplies from Venezuela, particularly toward the
end of the year, and the cessation of oil supplies from Iraq for a month in
the first half of the year.
The production rate of non-Arab OPEC members declined 9.5%
owing to a 7.8% drop in Indonesia’s output from about 1.2 million b/d to
about 1.1 million, a 6.4% drop in Iran’s output from about 3.7 million b/d
to about 3.3 million, a 14.4% drop in Venezuela’s output from 2.8 million
b/d to about 2.4 million, and a 9.3% drop in Nigeria’s output from about 2.1
million b/d to about 1.9 million.
Figure (2-13) shows the evolution of OAPEC and OPEC countries’ oil
production in the period 1998-2002.
The OPEC countries accounted for about 38.6% of total world
production in 2002.
Figure 2-13
Oil Production in OAPEC and OPEC Member Countries, 1998-2002
(Million b/d)
30
25
20
15
10
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
North Sea
UK oil production continued to decline in 2002, when it fell 3.5%
from its 2001 level of 2.33 million b/d to about 2.25 million b/d. Norway’s
output also declined by 3.5%, falling from about 3.24 million b/d to 3.15
million. This group accounted for 8.1% of total world oil production.
North America
The oil production of both Mexico and Canada rose in 2002, while
that of the USA declined slightly by no more than 31,000 b/d. Mexico’s
output increased by 1.7%, from about 3.13 million b/d in 2001 to about
3.18 million, while Canada’s rose 6.9%, from 2.05 million b/d in 2001 to
about 2.2 million. It is believed that Canada’s increase was due to increased
volumes of oil being extracted from tar sands in the north of Alberta state.
US production totaled about 5.77 million b/d in 2002. Together, the
countries of this group accounted for 16.7% of total world oil production in
2002.
The daily output of other Arab countries, namely Oman and Yemen,
remained unchanged from 2000. Their contribution brought the total Arab
production of NGL to about 2 million b/d, which constitutes 36.9% of total
world production, as shown in Table (2-9).
World production of hydrocarbon liquids totaled about 72.73 million
b/d in 2001, compared with about 72.81 million in 2000.
OAPEC member countries accounted for 29.1% of the world total,
and the Arab states together accounted for 31.3%, as shown in Table (2-8).
Marketed natural gas also increased in 2001, from about 2.5 trillion
cubic meters in 2000 to about 2.56 trillion, a rise of 2.3%, as shown in
Table (2-11).
All producing countries strive to reduce the quantities that are lost and
to cut the flaring of gases that result from separating the natural gas
associated with oil.
The increase in world natural gas production in 2001 was attributable
to Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and
Norway. Decreases in production were recorded by the CIS, Algeria, Iraq,
the UK, and Mexico, but they were smaller in total than the increases, so
they did not have a negative impact on world production.
Figure 2-14
World Production of Natural Gas by International Grouping,
2001
CIS
23.2% OAPEC
Others Members
23.6% 12.3%
Non-Arab
OPEC North America
10.0% 30.8%
3179
Billion cubic meters
OPEC Countries
Natural gas production in OPEC countries as a whole rose 5.9% in
2001, from about 623.9 billion cubic meters in 2000 to about 661 billion.
The production of non-Arab OPEC members rose 10.6%, from 288.1
billion cubic meters in 2000 to about 318.5 billion in 2001.
Natural gas production in Indonesia rose 0.9%, from 83.1 billion cubic
meters to about 83.9 billion, while that of Iran soared 15%, from 109.6
billion cubic meters to about 126 billion, and that of Venezuela increased
13.6%, from 34.9 billion cubic meters to 39.6 billion.
Figure (2-15) shows the evolution of natural gas production in OPEC
countries in the period 1998-2001.
OPEC countries accounted for 20.8% of total world production of
natural gas in 2001 and for about 16.4% of total marketed gas.
Developments of Energy Resourses 71
Figure 2-15
Natural Gas Production in OAPEC and OPEC Member Countries,
1998-2001
(Billion cubic meters/year)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1998 1999 2000 2001
OAPEC Members OPEC Countries
North Sea
The UK’s production of natural gas declined for the first time in 2001,
following a sustained increase over a decade. It fell 2.2%, from about 116.8
billion cubic meters in 2000 to 114.2 billion. Norway’s production, in
contrast, rose 3.3%, from about 90.3 billion cubic meters to 93.2 billion.
The volume of natural gas marketed by the UK in 2001 amounted to
about 106 billion cubic meters, while that marketed by Norway totaled 54.6
billion.
This group account for 6.5% of total world production of natural gas
and for about 6.3% of the gas marketed worldwide.
North America
The US production of natural gas rose 2.4% in 2001, from 693.2
billion cubic meters to about 709.5 billion. Canada’s production increased
2%, from 217.6 billion cubic meters to about 221.9 billion.
In contrast, Mexico’s production declined 0.5%, from 49.1 billion
cubic meters to about 48.8 billion.
The countries of this group accounted for 30.8% of world natural gas
production and for 30.2% of world marketed gas in 2001. The marketed
natural gas rate in these countries averaged 79% of the total production.
72 Oil and Gas
II. COAL
1. World Developments
Proven world reserves of coal in 2001 remained approximately at their
2000 level of 984.5 billion tons, as shown in Table (2-12).
The world’s largest coal reserves are concentrated in North America,
which accounted for about 26.0% of world reserves at the end of 2001
(with the USA alone accounting for 25.0%), followed by the countries of
the Former Soviet Union with 23.0%, China with 11.0%, Australia and
India with 8% each, and Germany with 6.0%, as shown in Figure (2-16).
Developments of Energy Resourses 73
Figure 2-16
World Coal Reserves, End 2001
984.5
Billion tons
FSU
Africa
23.4%
5.6%
North America
26.1%
World production of coal rose from 4534 million tons in 2000 to 4737
million in 2001. Hard coal accounted for most of the production, with an
estimated total of about 3834 million tons, of which China produced 1294
million tons, the USA 945 million tons, and India 312 million tons, as
shown in Table (2-13) and Figure (2-17).
Figure 2-17
World Production of Hard Coal, 2001
India
8.1%
China
33.8%
USA
24.6%
3834
Million tons
74 Oil and Gas
Between mid-2001 and the end of 2002 two new reactors came into
service in China with a total capacity of 1,548 megawatts, two in South
Korea with a capacity of 1,900 megawatts, and one in Japan with a capacity
of 598 megawatts. In the Russian Federation one reactor with a capacity of
950 megawatts was brought back into service, and two reactors with a
capacity of 470 megawatts were mothballed in the UK.
The electricity generated by nuclear reactors in 2002 totaled about
2,404.8 terawatt-hours, which is equivalent to about 17% of total world
electricity generation. The future of nuclear energy remains ambiguous and
forecasts contradict one another, but the USA has given nuclear power
priority in its new plan.
Conventional uranium reserves that are recoverable at a cost of less
than $80/kg of uranium oxide (U3O8) are estimated at about 2.27 million
tons. Reserves recoverable at a cost of up to $130/kg of U3O8 are estimated
at about 2.96 million tons.
Most of the conventional uranium reserves are concentrated in ten
countries. Australia has 20.4%, Kazakhstan 18.2%, the USA 10.6%,
Canada 9.9%, South Africa 8.9%, Niger 5.5%, and the Russian Federation
4.3%.
Two Arab countries feature among the countries with uranium
reserves. Algeria (26,000 tons at a cost of less than $80/kg of U3O8) and
Somalia (6,600 tons at a cost of less than $130/kg of U3O8).
Uranium production has been in decline since 1997. It fell from
37,600 tons in that year to 32,600 tons in 1999. In general, uranium
production from mines has only met 60% of world demand since 1993,
with the rest being met by the uranium stocks built up since 1990 for
military and civilian purposes. Supplies of enriched uranium are also
obtained by decommissioning nuclear warheads.
Growth in demand for uranium is linked to the growth of nuclear
power usage. There is no problem in meeting world demand in the
foreseeable future, whatever the scenario.
1. Hydropower
Hydroelectricity meets 20% of the world’s electricity needs. World
hydroelectricity consumption in 2001 totaled 594.5 million tons of oil
equivalent (mtoe), which was 3.7% lower than the 2000 level of 616.9
mtoe.
2. Wind Power
3. Solar Power
4. Geothermal Power
Some 50% of the electricity produced from solid biomass comes from
the USA (41,616 gigawatt-hours), where biomass accounts for 12.5% of the
electricity generated from renewable sources. Japan comes next with
11,309 gigawatt-hours of electricity from biomass, which accounts for
10.5% of renewable electricity generation. Among OECD countries Finland
takes third place with 8,476 gigawatt-hours, the whereas percentage of
electricity from renewable sources accounted for biomass reached (36.4%).
Non-commercial biomass represents a quarter of total energy demand
in the developing countries. It is expected that biomass use will rise in these
countries from 981 mtoe in 2000 to 1,019 mtoe in 2030. However, its
expanded use requires the introduction of new technology to raise its
efficiency and curb the health risks.
Electricity produced from the tides, the waves, and the oceans totaled
605 gigawatt-hours in 2000, with a growth rate of 0.1% between 1990 and
2000.
The largest producer of electricity from water motion power is France
with a production of 573 gigawatt-hours in 2000. Canada followed in
second place with 32 gigawatt-hours.
So far the technology for generating electricity using ocean power is
still experimental and requires further technical and economic development,
since it is extremely expensive at present compared with other energy
sources.
86 Tables
Table 2-1
Seismic Surveys in OAPEC Members and
Other Arab Countries, 1998-2002
(Crew/months)
* Estimates.
Sources:
- IHS Energy Group, 2002 issues.
- IHS Energy Group - Annual Synopsis, 2001.
- OAPEC Data Bank.
Tables 87
Table 2-2
Active Drilling Rigs in OAPEC Member Countries
and the World, 1998-2002
(At year end)
* Estimates.
Sources:
- IHS Energy Group, 2002 issues.
- OAPEC Data Bank.
- World Oil, Aug. 2002.
Tables 89
Table 2-4
Exploratory and Developmental Drilling in OAPEC
Members and Other Arab Countries,
1998-2002
(Kilometers)
* Estimates.
Sources:
- IHS Energy Group, 2002 issues.
- OAPEC Data Bank.
- World Oil, Aug. 2002.
90 Tables
Table 2-5
Petroleum Discoveries in OAPEC Members and
Other Arab Countries, 1998-2002
* Estimates.
Sources:
- IHS Energy Group, 2002 issues.
- IHS Energy Group - Annual Synopsis, 2001.
- OAPEC Data Bank.
Tables 91
Table 2-6
Arab and World Oil Reserves, 1998-2002
(Billion barrels at year end)
(%)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Change
2002/2001
Algeria** 11.31 11.31 11.31 12.00 12.00 0.0
Bahrain 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.0
Egypt** 3.50 3.50 3.70 3.70 3.70 0.0
Iraq 112.50 112.50 112.50 115.00 115.00 0.0
Kuwait * 96.50 96.50 96.50 96.50 96.50 0.0
Libya** 29.50 29.50 36.00 36.00 36.00 0.0
Qatar 4.50 4.50 13.16 15.21 15.21 0.0
Saudi Arabia * 261.50 262.80 262.80 262.80 262.80 0.0
Syria** 2.50 2.50 2.50 3.15 3.15 0.0
Tunisia 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.0
UAE 97.80 97.80 97.80 97.80 97.80 0.0
Total OAPEC 620.08 621.37 636.73 642.60 642.60 0.0
Oman** 5.56 5.74 5.85 5.85 5.85 0.0
Sudan 0.20 0.26 0.26 0.81 0.81 0.0
Yemen 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 0.0
Total Arab
629.84 631.37 646.84 653.26 653.26 0.0
countries
Indonesia 4.98 5.20 5.10 5.12 5.12 0.0
Iran 93.70 93.10 99.53 99.08 99.08 0.0
Nigeria 22.50 29.00 31.51 31.51 31.51 0.0
Venezuela 76.11 76.85 76.85 77.69 77.81 0.2
Total non-Arab
197.29 204.15 212.99 213.40 213.52 0.1
OPEC
Total OPEC 810.90 819.06 843.06 848.71 848.83 0.0
Cont./
92 Tables
(%)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002** Change
2002/2001
Algeria 4077 4523 4455 4455 4523 1.5
Bahrain 118 110 110 92 92 0.0
Egypt* 1019 1223 1444 1557 1657 6.4
Iraq 3110 3109 3109 3100 3100 0.0
Kuwait 1482 1480 1557 1557 1557 0.0
Libya 1313 1314 1274 1314 1314 0.0
Qatar* 8500 10900 11152 14611 25485 74.4
Saudi Arabia* 5790 5790 6193 6343 6343 0.0
Syria* 241 241 241 371 371 0.0
Tunisia 78 78 78 78 78 0.0
UAE* 6003 6003 6003 6003 6003 0.0
Total OAPEC 31731 34771 35616 39481 50523 28.0
Oman* 824 829 859 859 859 0.0
Sudan 85 85 85 85 85 0.0
Yemen* 396 396 396 396 396 0.0
Total Arab
33036 36081 36956 40821 51863 27.0
countries
Indonesia 3902 3650 3770 3790 3800 0.3
Iran 23000 23001 23002 23002 26600 15.6
Nigeria 3510 3568 3610 4503 4503 0.0
Venezuela 4147 4152 4152 4163 4174 0.3
Total non-Arab
34559 34371 34534 35458 39077 10.2
OPEC
Total OPEC 64834 67490 68277 72841 87402 20.0
94 Tables
* Official sources.
** Estimates.
Note: Parenthesis denote negative figures.
Sources:
- OAPEC Data Bank.
- Oil & Gas Journal, 23 Dec. 2002.
- OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2001.
Tables 95
Table 2-8
Arab and World Hydrocarbon Liquids Production, 1998-2002
(Thousand b/d)
First : Crude Oil Production
(%)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002** Change
2002/2001
Algeria 827.3 749.6 796.0 842.4 850.0 0.9
Bahrain* 182.9 176.4 181.0 233.9 185.1 (20.9)
Egypt 809.0 771.0 768.3 760.0 750.0 (1.3)
Iraq 2181.1 2550.0 2700.0 2600.0 2355.0 (9.4)
Kuwait 2052.2 1873.3 1983.8 1947.2 1982.5 1.8
Libya 1449.0 1287.2 1347.2 1323.5 1300.0 (1.8)
Qatar 616.9 608.7 648.0 681.0 640.0 (6.0)
Saudi Arabia 8280.2 7564.0 8400.0 7915.0 7647.5 (3.4)
Syria 572.1 575.4 547.4 522.0 495.0 (5.2)
Tunisia 78.0 79.1 74.0 69.6 71.0 2.0
UAE 2244.1 2154.0 2280.0 2231.0 1984.5 (11.0)
Total OAPEC 19292.8 18388.7 19725.7 19125.6 18260.6 (4.5)
Oman 899.4 904.7 954.9 964.2 895.0 (7.2)
Sudan 12.0 56.8 193.0 230.0 230.0 0.0
Yemen 368.7 392.4 436.5 436.0 435.0 (0.2)
Total Arab
20572.9 19742.6 21310.1 20755.8 19820.6 (4.5)
countries
Indonesia 1315.4 1355.5 1272.5 1214.2 1120.0 (7.8)
Iran 3714.0 3439.0 3661.3 3707.0 3469.9 (6.4)
Nigeria 1939.0 1781.5 2053.6 2127.0 1930.0 (9.3)
Venezuela 3120.0 2800.4 2891.0 2821.0 2415.0 (14.4)
Total non-Arab
10088.4 9376.4 9878.4 9869.2 8934.9 (9.5)
OPEC
Total OPEC 27739.2 26163.2 28033.4 27409.3 25694.4 (6.3)
Cont./
96 Tables
Table 2-8 Cont.
(%)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002** Change
2002/2001
Canada 2017.0 1900.8 2035.0 2052.4 2195.0 6.9
China 3199.9 3224.5 3237.0 3296.7 3400.0 3.1
CIS 7008.2 7125.7 7681.0 8210.8 8932.0 8.8
Of which: Azerbaijan 190.3 250.0 275.0 298.5 300.0 0.5
Kazakhstan 521.7 563.8 675.0 707.5 800.0 13.1
Russia 5919.0 5930.0 6325.0 6780.8 7385.0 8.9
Turkmenistan 120.2 140.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 12.5
Uzbekistan 157.7 151.0 155.0 145.0 150.0 3.4
Mexico 3071.1 2906.4 3012.0 3127.0 3180.0 1.7
Norway 3021.0 3017.6 3212.0 3244.6 3150.0 (2.9)
UK 2632.7 2724.9 2513.7 2330.8 2250.0 (3.5)
USA 6252.0 5881.5 5822.0 5801.2 5770.0 (0.5)
Rest of the world 7730.9 8527.8 8691.0 8613.3 8991.2 4.4
World Oil Production 65594.1 64428.2 67392.2 67301.8 66623.7 (1.0)
OAPEC/world (%) 29.4 28.5 29.3 28.4 27.4 -
OPEC/world (%) 42.3 40.6 41.6 40.7 38.6 -
Second : Natural Gas Liquids Production
Arab countries Production 1908.0 1863.0 1998.0 2003.0 na
World NGL Production 4895.0 4986.0 5421.0 5433.0 na
Sources:
- OAPEC Data Bank.
- Oil & Gas Journal, 23 Dec. 2002.
- Oil & Energy Trends, Annual Statistical Review, May 2002.
- OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2001.
Tables 97
Table 2-9
NGL Production in OAPEC Members and Other Arab Countries,
1998-2001
(Thousand b/d)
Bahrain* 12 10 10 10
Egypt 65 65 65 65
Iraq 15 20 20 20
Kuwait 23 20 20 20
Libya 40 40 60 60
Qatar 84 80 90 90
Syria 11 10 10 10
Tunisia 1 1 1 1
* Official sources.
Sources:
- OAPEC Data Bank.
- Oil & Energy Trends, Annual Statistical Review, May 2002.
98 Tables
Table 2-10
Arab and World Natural Gas Production,
1998-2001
(Million cubic meters/year)
(%)
1998 1999 2000 2001** Change
2001/2000
Algeria 150060 159925 163030 156736 (3.9)
Bahrain 11125 11507 11665 12017 3.0
Egypt 18270 19650 24360 27868 14.4
Iraq 3800 4000 5100 4350 (14.7)
Kuwait 11113 10144 10777 10669 (1.0)
Libya 12600 9200 10150 10698 5.4
Qatar 26356 37828 40722 45487 11.7
Saudi Arabia* 49780 48690 53460 57000 6.6
Syria 7700 7800 7400 7500 1.4
Tunisia 2380 2380 2350 2350 0.0
UAE 48980 51000 52590 57588 9.5
Total OAPEC 342164 362124 381604 392263 2.8
Oman 10396 11567 15495 21890 41.3
Yemen 15300 16500 18900 21632 14.5
Total Arab
367860 390191 415999 435785 4.8
countries
Indonesia 84380 86880 83100 83872 0.9
Iran 89000 102600 109600 125996 15.0
Nigeria 31750 30700 34860 39585 13.6
Venezuela 61350 57070 60500 69007 14.1
Total non-Arab
266480 277250 288060 318460 10.6
OPEC
Total OPEC 569169 598037 623889 660988 5.9
Tables 99
(%)
1998 1999 2000 2001** Change
2001/2000
Algeria 80878 85848 88617 84136 (5.1)
Bahrain 8380 8671 8789 8912 1.4
Egypt 13740 15840 19800 20957 5.8
Iraq 2950 3180 3150 2760 (12.4)
Kuwait 9000 8640 9600 9504 (1.0)
Libya 6360 5200 6000 6180 3.0
Qatar 19580 22050 29100 32505 11.7
Saudi Arabia* 46820 46200 49810 53695 7.8
Syria 4900 4800 5000 5500 10.0
Tunisia 1900 1900 1900 1900 0.0
UAE* 37070 38990 39840 44940 12.8
Total OAPEC 231578 241319 261606 270989 3.6
Oman 6273 6846 10870 15870 46.0
Yemen - - - 1274 -
Total Arab
237851 248165 272476 288133 5.7
countries
Indonesia 64250 70960 68365 69000 0.9
Iran 50000 56755 60147 69145 15.0
Nigeria 5900 6950 12460 15680 25.8
Venezuela 31440 26771 27801 31710 14.1
Total non-Arab
151590 161436 168773 185535 9.9
OPEC
Total OPEC 354248 371544 394890 419255 6.2
Tables 101
* Official sources.
** Estimates.
Note:
- Parenthesis denote negative figures.
- Reinjected, flared and gas losses are excluded data.
Sources:
- BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2002.
- IEA Statistics, Natural Gas Information 2002.
- OAPEC Data Bank.
- OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2001.
- Petroleum Economist, Nov. 2002.
102 Tables
Table 2-12
World Coal Reserves, 1998-2001
(Billion tons at year end)
Kazakhstan 71 74 81 81 73
Ukraine 70 67 74 79 82
Germany 51 61 56 71 71
Sources:
- World Coal Institute: Website .
- E. coal : various issues .
48 Oil and Gas
CHAPTER TWO
CHAPTER THREE
ARAB AND WORLD DEVELOPMENTS IN
PETROLEUM DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRIES
I. REFINING INDUSTRY
1. World Developments
World primary distillation capacity increased 1.0% in 2002, rising
about 810,000 b/d from 81.33 million b/d in 2001 to 82.14 million b/d. The
rise was the net result of the reopening of distillation unit number 5 at Mina
al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait with a capacity of 120,000 b/d, following the
repair of the fire damage suffered in June 2000, the coming on stream of
two new condensate treatment plants at Messaieed refinery in Qatar with a
combined capacity of 57,000 b/d, an increase in the capacity of the same
refinery’s existing units, bringing it to 80,000 b/d, the closure of ten
refineries with a total capacity of 274,000 b/d in the USA, the updating of
some data, and the improvement and decline in the efficiency of refineries
around the world. North America, the Middle East, and South America
accounted for the biggest increases in capacity, recording rises of 260,000
b/d, 250,000 b/d, and 160,000 b/d, respectively. Africa came fourth with
100,000 b/d, Western Europe next with 80,000 b/d, and then Asia with
20,000 b/d. Eastern Europe and the CIS recorded a decline of 60,000 b/d in
their capacity in 2002 compared with 2001.
Figure (3-1) shows the distribution of world primary distillation
capacity by region in 2002, while Table (3-1) compares the world primary
distillation capacity in 2002 with that in 2001.
Figure 3-1
World Primary Distillation Capacity by Region, 2002
Western
82.1
Middle East Europe
Million b/d
7.9% 17.8%
Asia/Pacific
24.6%
North America
24.7%
South America/ Eastern Africa
Caribbean Europe/CIS 4.1%
8.1% 12.9%
Developments in Downstream Industries 105
Figure 3-2
World Catalytic Conversion Capacity by Region, 2002
Western Europe
Middle East
17.4%
5.3%
Asia/Pacific
18.5%
South America/
Caribbean
6.3%
North America
Eastern
41.7%
Europe/CIS Africa
8.7% 2.0% 29.8
Million b/d
North America
Primary distillation capacity in North America amounted to about
20.29 million b/d in 2002, which was about 260,000 b/d, or 1.3%, higher
than its 2001 level of 20.03 million b/d. Mexico accounted for about
160,000 b/d, or 61.5%, of the total increase, followed by the USA with
60,000 b/d, or 23.1%, and lastly Canada with an increase of 40,000 b/d, or
15.4%. Catalytic conversion capacity, which includes fluid catalytic
cracking, reforming, and hydrocracking, increased by 157,000 b/d, or 1.3%,
from 12.290 million b/d in 2001 to 12.447 million b/d in 2002.
Most of the increase (81,850 b/d) occurred in FCC capacity, of which
83.7%, or 68,530 b/d, was accounted for by the USA. Mexico took an 8.6%
share of the increase (7,000 b/d) and Canada accounted for 7.7%, or 6,330
b/d. Next in line came catalytic reforming capacity, which rose 71,600 b/d.
The USA accounted for 14,300 b/d of this increase and Mexico for 58,300
b/d, while Canada experienced a 950 b/d decline in its capacity from 2001.
Hydrocracking capacity recorded an increase of 3,090 b/d in 2002,
which was the net result of a 4,190-b/d rise in US capacity and declines of
600 b/d and 500 b/d in the capacities of Canada and Mexico, respectively.
The total capacity for hydrotreating processes increased in 2002 by
451,000 b/d, or 3.6%, from 12.556 million b/d in 2001 to 13.007 million
b/d. The rise was the net result of increases in the capacities of the USA
and Mexico by 225,100 b/d and 236,100 b/d, respectively, and a decrease
of 10,000 b/d in Canada’s capacity.
Western Europe
Primary distillation capacity in 2002 rose by 80,000 b/d, or 0.6%,
above its 2001 level, from 14.500 million b/d to about 14.580 million b/d.
The increase may be attributed to the rises of varying degrees in the
Developments in Downstream Industries 107
Asia/Pacific
The rise was the net result of increased capacity at refineries in some
countries and reduced capacity at others. In another development,
hydrotreating capacity fell 21,000 b/d, or by 0.5%, in 2002 from 4.082
million b/d to 4.061 million.
108 Refining Industry
Middle East
There was an increase of 250,000 b/d, or 4.0%, in the total primary
distillation capacity of countries in this region in 2002. It rose from 6.210
million b/d to 6.460 million b/d owing to the coming on stream of
distillation unit no. 5 at Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait with a capacity
of 120,000 b/d, following the repair of damage caused by the fire that swept
through the refinery in June 2000. In addition, two condensate treatment
units were brought on stream at Messaieed refinery in Qatar, with capacities
of 30,000 b/d and 27,000 b/d, the capacity of existing units was raised by
20,000 b/d to 80,000 b/d, and the efficiency of some refineries in the region
was improved, while the data on others were updated. The capacity for
catalytic conversion processes rose by 110,000 b/d, or 7.5%, from 1.464
million b/d in 2001 to 1.574 million b/d in 2002. FCC capacity accounted
for 60,000 b/d of the total increase, followed by catalytic reforming with
29,000 b/d, and hydrocracking with 21,000 b/d. Hydrotreating capacity rose
by 107,000 b/d, or 6.1%, in 2002, from 1.746 million b/d to 1.853 million
b/d. The increase was due to coming on stream of a new 70,000-b/d unit at
Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait for hydrotreating diesel and the
improved efficiency of several similar units at refineries in the region.
Africa
Total primary distillation capacity in Africa rose 100,000 b/d, or by
3.1%, in 2002, to about 3.340 million b/d. The increase was basically the
net result of expanded operating capacity at the Midor refinery in Egypt and
some oil refineries in South Africa and the reduced operating capacity of
some refineries, particularly in Morocco (owing to the fire at Samir
refinery) and Somalia. Total catalytic conversion capacity and
hydrotreating capacity were
Developments in Downstream Industries 109
2. Arab Developments
Primary distillation capacity in Arab oil refineries rose in 2002 to
7.108 million b/d, which was 260,000 b/d, or 3.8%, higher than the
previous year’s total of 6.848 million b/d. Oil refineries in OAPEC member
countries accounted for all of this increase, owing to the resumed operation
of distillation unit 5 at Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait with a capacity
of 120,000 b/d, following the repair of damage caused by the fire that swept
through the refinery in June 2000. Other changes in the primary distillation
of OAPEC countries included the increased operating efficiency of other
distillation units at Mina al-Ahmadi refinery, bringing the refinery back to
its pre-fire capacity of 440,000 b/d, the coming on stream of two
condensate treatment units at Messaieed refinery in Qatar with a combined
capacity of 57,000 b/d, and the expanded capacity of existing units in the
same refinery to 80,000 b/d.
This brought the total primary distillation capacity of oil refineries in
OAPEC member countries in 2002 to 6.432 million b/d, which was 2.3%
higher than the 2001 total of 6.172 million b/d. Total primary distillation
capacity at oil refineries in other Arab countries remained at its 2001 level
of 676,000 b/d.
Figure (3-3) and Table (3-3) show the evolution of primary distillation
capacity at installed oil refineries in the Arab countries between 1998 and
2002.
Figure 3-3
Evolution of Primary Distillation Capacity in the Arab Countries,
1998- 2002
(Million b/d)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Egypt
Within the context of gasoline consumption rationalization, Egypt’s
Council of Ministers agreed in April 2002 to start implementing a new plan
to expand the scheme for converting unleaded gasoline vehicles to natural
gas following a five-year experiment. There are now over 40,000 cars
running on natural gas in Egypt.
The Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum is working hard to complete
several projects currently under way in the Alexandria area and to improve
their performance. They include a reformed naphtha project at the
Alexandria National Refining and Petrochemical Company (Anrepec), at an
investment cost of 1.1 billion Egyptian pounds (EL), a project at the
Alexandria Mineral Oils Company (AMOC) with an investment cost of
EL2 billion, and a project belonging to the Alexandria Specialist Petroleum
Products Company (Aspec) with an investment cost of EL356 million.
Kuwait
Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) announced in
September 2002 that Mina al-Ahmadi refinery had resumed its former
production level of 440,000 b/d following the re-opening of distillation unit
5 following the repair of damage sustained in the fire of June 2000. This
raised the total capacity of the country’s three refineries to the former level
of 895,000 b/d, of which 200,000 b/d was at Shuaiba refinery, 255,000 b/d
at Mina Abdullah refinery, and 440,000 b/d at Mina al-Ahmadi refinery.
In another development, the South Korean company LG Engineering
and Construction announced in October 2002 that it had won a contract for
developing a unit to separate sulfur from diesel at Mina Abdullah Refinery
that would raise the refinery’s capacity from 66,000 b/d to 84,000 b/d.
Libya
As part of a plan to strengthen cooperation between Egypt and Libya,
the Egyptian-Libyan Supreme Committee decided in May 2002 to set up an
oil and gas company with a capital of $100 million to coordinate the links
between the two countries. In another development, Libya announced its
intention to acquire a share of the Middle East Oil Refining Company
(Midor) following an agreement on the size of the share and necessary
procedures and conditions.
Developments in Downstream Industries 111
Morocco
It was announced on 26 November 2002 that a fire had ravaged Samir
Refinery, which is owned by the Saudi Corral Oil Group. The refinery had
been closed owing to the floods that occurred in Morocco, since the
refinery was inundated and water seeped into some pipes. It was announced
that perhaps some fuel floating on the water had come into contact with a
heat source and cause the fire. A preliminary report indicated that four fuel
tanks were damaged. The refinery has a capacity of about 139,000 b/d and
meets 80%-90% of Morocco’s oil product requirements. The country’s
second refinery, in the Sidi Kacem region, has a capacity of 26,000 b/d and
meets the remaining needs. Only recently Samir had adopted a plan to
develop the refinery and increase its capacity to about 10 million tons/year
and in May 2001 it concluded a 15-month contract with the UK company
Foster Wheeler to conduct engineering studies for a $600-million program
to develop and update the units at the refinery. Work was due to start in
2002 and end in 2004.
Oman
The Omani government is trying to achieve better conditions for its
purchase of BP’s share of a 285,000-b/d refinery in Singapore. In another
development, the government announced in January 2002 that it was
inviting bids from international companies to build a new 75,000-b/d
refinery in the northern city of Sohar. The deadline for submission of bids
was May 2002.
Qatar
Qatar Petroleum, the French company Total Fina Elf, and the US
Exxon Mobil signed an agreement on 26 November 2002 setting conditions
for the design, construction, and operation of a refinery in Ras Laffan
Industrial City to treat the condensates associated with gas produced from
the North gas field. The initial cost of the first phase to produce and treat
140,000 b/d of condensates is estimated at about $400 million. Scheduled
for completion in 2006, this phase will produce naphtha, kerosene, and
diesel for export.
In early 2002 Qatar completed a large project at Messaieed refinery
that boosted its capacity from 63,000 b/d to 137,000 b/d. The project
involved bringing on stream a 27,000-b/d unit to treat condensates from the
North field and a 30,000-b/d unit to treat condensates from the Dukhan
field, in addition to an FCC unit to convert fuel oil into light products. The
removal of bottlenecks from existing units has boosted their capacity from
63,000 b/d to 80,000 b/d.
112 Refining Industry
Saudi Arabia
In August 2002 Saudi Aramco brought back on stream a unit at its
Yanbu refinery at about 25% of its 46,000-b/d capacity following its
closure in July 2002 due to a mechanical failure. The 375,000-b/d refinery
on the Red Sea is shared equally by Aramco and Exxon Mobil.
Saudi Arabia is continuing to boost the operating efficiency of all its
refineries so as to enhance their profitability. It is pursuing several projects
currently underway, particularly at Rabigh refinery, which is being made
more sophisticated along the lines of Ras Tanura refinery at a cost of $1.3
billion.
It was announced at the beginning of 2002 that Saudi Arabia was
planning to raise the total refining capacity of the oil refineries its owns to 2
million b/d by 2003 and to 2.5 million b/d by 2006 by upgrading and
overhauling its three refineries in Ras Tanura, Riyadh, and Rabigh. The
plan also involves adding units to treat heavy oil and others to recover
sulfur at Riyadh refinery, while at the other two refineries both refining
capacity and condensate treatment capacity are to be increased.
UAE
At the end of June 2002 Abu Dhabi Oil Refining Company ‘Takreer’
signed two contracts worth $480 million in total for the execution of a
project to produce unleaded gasoline and low-sulfur fuel oil. The contracts
were won by the Italian company Technip S.P.A and the US company CBI
Eastern Anstalt and will be executed at the Ruwais refinery complex on a
turnkey basis within a maximum completion time of 36 months from start
date. After completion of the project, the refinery will be able to produce
unleaded gasoline and low-sulfur fuel oil, which will boost the quality of its
products and make them comply with environment protection requirements.
In another development, Takreer stated that the company expected to
increase its production of petroleum condensates to 360,000 b/d in the next
four years following the coming on stream of the third phase of the sour gas
development project and the third phase of the onshore gas development
project, both of which are under way at the major petroleum operations
base at Ruwais in the western part of Abu Dhabi emirate. They will boost
the refinery’s condensate production by 200,000 b/d, from 160,000 b/d to
360,000 b/d, by 2006.
The refinery is currently operating two 140,000-b/d production lines
for treating petroleum condensates. Its products are known for their high
quality.
Developments in Downstream Industries 113
1. World Developments
The rise in prices of natural gas, which is the main feedstock for the
production of olefins in the USA, caused production costs for these
products to rise, thereby reducing the petrochemical industry’s profit
margin. On the other hand, the petrochemical industry in European
countries experienced less pressure since it relies heavily on naphtha as a
feedstock whose prices did not climb as steeply as those of natural gas in
the USA, although they did remain relatively high in Europe owing to the
general rise in crude oil prices.
The Middle East accounted for much of the rise with a 24.3% increase
in ethylene capacity, followed by South America with 14.0%, the
Asia/Pacific region with a 10.0% increase, North America with 3.2%, and
Western Europe with a 1.5% rise. Ethylene production capacity in Eastern
Europe and the CIS, and Africa dropped 8.9% and 1.2%, respectively. The
increased ethylene capacity in the Middle East was basically due to the
coming on stream of new projects in Saudi Arabia.
Table (3-4) and Figure (3-4) show the evolution of world installed
ethylene production capacity by region in 2001 and 2002.
114 Petrochemical Industries
Figure 3-4
World Installed Ethylene Capacity, 2002
Asia/Pacific
Middle East
26.4%
8.3% Africa
1.4%
Eastern
Europe/CIS
6.1% North America
32.8%
Western Europe
20.8%
South America
106.2
4.2%
Million tons
2. Arab Developments
Kuwait
The Kuwait Petrochemicals Company (Equate) realized net profits in
2001 of $110 million, which was 40% down on its 2000 profits of about
$183 million. The slump was due to the fall in prices of polyethylene and
ethylene glycol on world markets in the second half of 2001.
The company expects to face difficult times owing to the generally
low prices for petrochemicals on world markets and the rise in energy
prices. Equate owns a petrochemical complex in the industrial area of
Shuaiba consisting of an 800,000-ton/year ethylene unit, a 600,000-ton/year
polyethylene unit, and a 400,000-b/d ethylene glycol unit. The company’s
capital is owned by Kuwait Petrochemical Industries Company (45%), the
US company Dow Chemicals (45%), and Bubiyan Petrochemicals (10%).
Qatar
The recently formed Qatofin company is taking part in the Q-Cem II
project that is under construction at Ras Laffan Industrial City with a
capacity to produce 450,000 tons/year of linear low density polyethylene.
Qatar Petrochemical Company is planning to expand its ethylene
production to 720,000 tons/year after producing about 535,000 tons of the
substance by the end of 2001. Part of this production was used to make
about 382,000 tons of low density polyethylene in 2001, which was 14.6%
more than the previous year. Of this about 375,000 tons was exported, in
Developments in Downstream Industries 115
Saudi Arabia
The Saudi Basic Industries Company (Sabic), its subsidiaries, and
private sector companies continued to expand existing petrochemical
facilities and build new ones. Projects that came on stream in 2001 included
the Saudi European Petrochemical Company (Ibn Zahr) plant to produce
320,000 tons/year of polypropylene, which brought Ibn Zahr’s production
of this material to 640,000 tons/year. Projects that were started included a
new 600,000-ton/year polyethylene plant at the Petrokemya complex in
Jubail Industrial City and a 30,000-ton/year acetic acid unit at the Ibn
Rushd complex in the Yanbu Industrial Area, using technology developed
by Sabic. Several other expansion and new projects are currently under
way, including:
• A project owned by the Arab Petrochemicals Company (Petrokemya) to
produce 800,000 tons/year of high density polyethylene and linear low
density polyethylene and 60,000 tons/year of polyvinyl chloride.
• A National Petrochemicals Company project in collaboration with
Bassell Company to produce 400,000 tons/year of propylene and
450,000 tons/year of polypropylene.
• A Saudi International Petrochemical Company project in collaboration
with Arab and foreign partners to produce 960,000 tons/year of
methanol, 250,000 tons/year of acetic acid, 50,000 tons/year of ethyl
acetates, and 900,000 tons/year of olefins.
• A United Jubail Petrochemicals Company project in collaboration with
Sabic to produce 1.35 million tons/year of ethylene, 500,000 tons/year
of ethylene oxide, 556,000 tons/year of ethylene glycol, 150,000
tons/year of alpha linear olefins, 450,000 tons/year of polyvinyl
chloride, and 400,000 tons/year of polyethylene.
• A Yanbu Petrochemicals Company (Yanpet) project to produce
535,000 tons/year of polyethylene, 410,000 tons/year of ethylene
glycol, and 800,000 tons/year of ethylene. Yanpet used to produce
260,000 tons/year of polypropylene, but it now produces 1.6 million
tons/year of ethylene, 1.145 million tons/year of polyethylene, and
770,000 tons/year of ethylene glycol.
116 Petrochemical Industries
1. World Developments
Figure 3-5
World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 2001
North America
Eastern Europe 30.0%
2.5% Latin America
Western Europe
17.1% 4.0%
2405
Billion cubic meters
118 Natural Gas Processing
Table (3-6) and Figure (3-6) show the evolution of the share of natural
gas in the total commercial energy balance in the various regions of the
world in the period 1999-2001.
Figure 3-6
Share of Natural Gas in the World Energy Balance, 1999-2001
(%)
100
24.2 24.7 23.7
80
60
20
0
1999 2000 2001
Table (3-7) shows that the Middle East witnessed the highest growth
in natural gas exports in 2001 over previous years, with a rise of about
32.9% over 2000.
This was attributable to the growth in LNG exports, particularly from
Oman following the commercial start-up of the country’s LNG project, but
also to a lesser extent from Qatar and the UAE.
Gas export volumes also increased from South America by 17.8%,
from North America by 11.3%, and from Western Europe by 9.9%. On the
other hand, exports from the FSU and Asia/Pacific declined 1.4% and
0.7%, respectively. Table (3-7) and Figure (3-7) show the volumes of gas
exported by various regions.
The volume of natural gas exports by pipeline constituted 74.2% of
total exports in 2001, while the remaining 25.8% took the form of LNG, as
shown in Table (3-8) and Figure (3-8).
Gas exports to world markets from the Arab countries, whether in the
form of LNG or by pipeline, rose in both 2000 and 2001, when they totaled
83.0 billion cubic meters and 89.5 billion, respectively.
Algeria headed the Arab gas exporters with a share of about 64.5% of
total Arab exports in 2001, followed by Qatar with 16.8%, Oman with
8.3%, the UAE with 7.9%, and finally Libya with 0.9%.
Figure 3-7
World Natural Gas Exports by Region, 2001
Asia/Pacific Africa
13.8% 12.0%
Middle East
5.6%
North America
21.8%
FSU
23.6%
Latin America
Western Europe 2.0%
21.2%
554.3
Billion cubic meters
120 Natural Gas Processing
Figure 3-8
World Natural Gas Exports, 2000 and 2001
(%)
100
26.02 25.80
80
60
40 73.98 74.21
20
0
2000 2001
by Piepline as LNG
Figure 3-9
Arab Natural Gas Exports by Country, 2001
(%)
Qatar UAE
18.5% 7.9% Oman
8.3%
Libya
0.9%
Algeria
89.5 64.5%
Billion cubic meters
Developments in Downstream Industries 121
Figure 3-10
Average World Prices of Natural Gas, 1997-2001
(US$ per million BTU)
1
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
2. Arab Developments
Algeria
The Algerian national oil company Sonatrach signed two letters of
intent to export Algerian natural gas, the first to the Spanish company
Cepsa and the second to the French company TotalFinaElf, which owns
45.3% of the shares in Cepsa. The two agreements call for the supply of a
billion cubic meters per annum of Algerian gas to the two companies once
the Medgaz pipeline is completed, linking Algeria to Spain directly across
the Mediterranean.
122 Natural Gas Processing
Egypt
BP, Italy’s ENI, and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation
concluded a deal in 2001 to build a 4.5 billion cubic meter/year LNG
complex at Damietta.
The Spanish company Union Fenosa Gas had earlier struck a 25-year
deal with the Egyptian Natural Gas Company (Gasco) according to which
the Egyptian company would supply the Spanish company with at least 4
billion cubic meters of Egyptian natural gas per annum, with a provision
allowing an extension for another 25 years. A 7-million ton/year natural gas
complex is already under construction at Damietta.
By the end of 2002 80% of the construction work had been concluded
on the Arabian gas pipeline project linking al-Arish in Egypt with the
Jordanian city of Aqaba. This was the first phase of the project that will
subsequently be extended to Syria and Lebanon. The first phase, which is
estimated to cost about $220 million, has been financed with $70 million of
Egyptian local currency and loans from various sources, including $100
million from the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development. The
project will supply Aqaba power station with about 1 billion cubic meters a
year of Egyptian gas.
Kuwait
The project for supplying Kuwait with Qatari natural gas is still
awaiting approval from the states through which the pipeline will pass.
Once completed, at an estimated cost of about $1 billion, it will supply
Kuwait with between 750 million and 1400 million cubic feet/day of Qatari
gas via a 570-km pipeline of 42/48 inch diameter laid under the Arabian
Gulf, linking Ras Laffan in Qatar with Ras ez-Zor in Kuwait.
Developments in Downstream Industries 123
Oman
Oman LNG Company signed a contract with the US-Japanese
consortium Chiyoda Foster Wheeler for the construction of a third train at
the LNG complex owned by the Omani company, boosting its capacity
from 6.6 million tons/year to 9.9 million tons/year. Half the production will
be exported to the Spanish company Union Fenosa Gas.
Oman is currently negotiating a bank loan to finance the purchase of
four LNG carriers relating to four contracts that Oman LNG Company
concluded with the Korean Gas Company, the Japanese company Osaka
Gas, the Indian company Daphol Electricity, and Shell Western E&P Inc. to
supply LNG. The company is currently selling part of its production on
short term contracts. In 2002 Oman LNG Company supplied Gaz de France
with a cargo of 139,000 cubic meters as part of a contract concluded
between the two companies to export gas to France in future.
Qatar
Qatar Petroleum and Sasol International of South Africa entrusted a
group of 15 international banks to secure a $700 million loan to finance an
oil distillates project that the two companies intend to build in Ras Laffan
Industrial City. The joint project between Qatar Petroleum (51%) and Sasol
(49%) is already being developed and is expected to start production at the
end of 2005. In the first phase about 33 million cubic feet per day of natural
gas will be treated to produce 33,000 b/d of liquid products, of which
24,000 b/d will be gasoil, 8,000 b/d naphtha, and 1,000 b/d of LPG.
Foster Wheeler Energy Ltd has been retained to prepare the front end
Engineering. Bids are currently being assessed for the construction of the
plant the supply provision of the necessary equipment.
124 Natural Gas Processing
Saudi Arabia
The natural gas separation and treatment unit at Haradh started
commercial production in 2002. It treats natural gas in order to supply the
main gas network with about 1.5 billion cubic feet/day of dry gas, in
addition to producing gas liquids.
Tables 129
Table 3-1
World Installed Refining Capacity by Region,
2001 and 2002
(Million b/d)
(%)
2001 2002 Change
2002/2001
North America 20.03 20.29 1.30
Asia/Pacific 20.18 20.20 0.10
Western Europe 14.50 14.58 0.55
Eastern Europe/CIS 10.68 10.62 (0.56)
South America/Caribbean 6.49 6.65 2.47
Table 3-2
World Catalytic Conversion Capacity by Region*,
2001 and 2002
(Thousand b/d)
(%)
2001 2002 Change
2002/2001
North America 12290 12447 1.28
Asia/Pacific 5397 5522 2.32
Western Europe 5157 5197 0.78
Table 3-3
Installed Refining Capacity in the Arab Countries,
(Thousand b/d)
Number of
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Refineries
Algeria 5 513 513 513 513 513
Bahrain 1 265 265 265 265 265
Egypt 9 673 719 819 819 819
Iraq 12 550 550 570 570 570
Kuwait 3 854 901 736 652 895
Libya 5 380 380 380 380 380
Qatar 2 63 63 63 120 137
Saudi Arabia 8 1795 1795 1795 1795 1795
Syria 2 245 245 245 245 245
Tunisia 1 35 35 35 35 35
UAE 5 282 282 703 778 778
Total OAPEC 53 5655 5748 6124 6172 6432
Jordan 1 84 103 103 103 103
Lebanon 2 * * * * *
Mauritania 1 25 25 25 25 25
Morocco 2 165 165 165 165 165
Oman 1 80 80 80 80 80
Somalia 1 10 10 10 10 10
Sudan 5 37 43 93 93 93
Yemen 2 200 200 200 200 200
Total other Arab 15 601 626 676 676 676
Total Arab countries 68 6256 6374 6800 6848 7108
* The two refineries were shutdown after they sustained serious damage during the civil war.
Source:
- OAPEC Data Bank.
132 Tables
Table 3-4
World Ethylene Capacity by Region,
2000 and 2001
(Thousand tons/year)
(%)
2001 2002 Change
2002/2001
North America 33742 34813 3.2
Asia/Pacific 25504 28055 10.0
Western Europe 21788 22113 1.5
Table 3-5
2000 and 2001
(Billion cubic meters)
(%)
2000 2001 Change
2000/99
North America 759.5 722.5 (4.9)
FSU 547.0 548.6 0.3
Western Europe 402.2 410.2 2.0
Asia/Pacific 290.8 305.1 4.9
Source:
- BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2002.
134 Tables
Table 3-6
Share of Natural Gas in the Total Consumption of Commercial Energy by
Region,
1999 - 2001
(%)
Table 3-7
Natural Gas Exports by Region,
(Billion cubic meters)
(%)
2000 2001 Change
2001/2000
Western Europe 106.69 117.26 9.9
Of which: Norway 49.00 50.50 3.1
Netherlands 36.62 42.20 15.2
UK 13.11 15.78 20.4
FSU 132.98 131.06 (1.4)
Of which: Russia 130.33 126.86 (2.7)
Turkmenistan 2.65 4.20 58.5
North America 108.37 120.61 11.3
Canada 101.66 100.02 (1.6)
Mexico 0.17 0.65 282.4
USA 6.54 10.94 67.3
Asia/Pacific 77.13 76.57 (0.7)
Of which: Australia 10.11 10.20 0.9
Brunei 8.79 - -
Indonesia 35.70 32.80 (8.1)
Malaysia 22.53 21.81 (3.2)
Mynamar - 1.75 -
Africa 68.05 66.29 (2.6)
Of which: Algeria 61.64 57.69 (6.4)
Libya 0.80 0.77 (3.8)
Nigeria 5.61 7.83 39.6
Middle East 23.44 31.16 32.9
Of which: Oman 2.47 7.43 200.8
Iran - 0.11 -
Qatar 14.04 16.54 17.8
UAE 6.93 7.08 2.2
Latin America 9.61 11.32 17.8
Of which: Argentina 4.20 5.17 23.1
Bolivia 1.90 2.50 31.6
Trinidad & Tobago 3.51 3.65 4.0
Total 526.27 554.27 5.3
Note: Parentheses denote negative figures.
Source:
- BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2002.
136 Tables
Table 3-8
World Natural Gas Exports by Region,
2000 and 2001
(Billion cubic meters)
A- Exports by Pipeline.
B- Exports as LNG.
FSU - - - -
Europe - - - -
Source:
- BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2002.
Tables 137
Table 3-9
Natural Gas Exports in Arab Countries
1997 - 2001
(Million cubic meters)
Table 3-10
World Natural Gas Prices,*
1997 and 2001
(Dollar/Million BTU)
(%)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Change
2001/2000
CHAPTER ONE
THE MINISTERIAL COUNCIL AND
THE EXECUTIVE BUREAU
The Executive Bureau held its hundred and second meeting in Cairo,
Egypt, on 8-9 June 2002, to prepare the agenda of the sixty-eighth
Ministerial Council meeting. It held its hundred and third meeting in Cairo
on 12-13 October 2002, to consider the 2003 budgets for the General
Secretariat and the Judicial Tribunal and to submit recommendations to the
sixty-ninth meeting of the Ministerial Council.
The Bureau also held its hundred and fourth meeting in Cairo on
18-19 December 2002, to draw up the agenda for the sixty-ninth meeting
of the Ministerial Council.
141
142 General Secretariat
CHAPTER TWO
1-2 Managing the Local Area Network (LAN) and Providing Technical
Support for the used Hardware and Software
The General Secretariat has been keen to follow up technological
developments related to local network, computers, and related equipment,
so as to provide the best possible protection for its data-base and to improve
Data Bank and Related Activities 143
First: Designing and preparing the statistical tables and graphs both in
Arabic and English for the Secretary General Twenty-eighth
Annual Report, 2001, in addition to providing the report as a
CD-Rom and on OAPEC Website on the internet.
Second: Preparing a booklet entitled “Technical and Economic Indicators
of Energy” which was distributed during the Seventh Arab Energy
Conference. This booklet consists of a number of general
indicators as well as technical and economic indicators related to
energy in the Arab world and elsewhere.
Third: Designing, compiling, and producing the 2002 Annual Statistical
Report which covers the period 1996-2001. The report is made up
of four main sections:
The Data Bank also added the latter Report to the General
Secretariat’s website and placed the electronic version of the Report on
CD-Rom to present the data and information in a simple manner for PC
users.
Fourth: The General Secretariat continued to download and reorganize
energy data on international groups, which it publishes in a
booklet entitled “Energy Data for International Groups.” It
rearranges and reclassifies the “BP Statistical Review of World
Energy 2001,” after converting all of its units to thousand
barrels of oil equivalent/day and adding graphs to it. The data
covers energy of international groups as well as individual
countries starting from 1965 up to 2001. The General
Secretariat also produced a CD containing this data. The
distribution of this publication is very limited.
Fifth: The Data Bank compiled and produced a CD-ROM with the
papers presented to the Seventh Arab Energy Conference, the
deliberations of the participants in the discussion sessions, the
addresses of the opening and closing sessions, the addresses of
the heads of delegations, the conference program, the final
communiqué, and the names of participants.
Sixth: The Data Bank produced a CD-ROM containing papers and
abstracts presented to the Future of Natural Gas seminar, which
was jointly held by OAPEC, Cedigaz and l’institut Français du
Pétrole (IFP), in Paris during 25-27 June 2002 at the latter’s
headquarters near Paris, a number of presentation which were
presented by the lecturers, the seminar’s program, the opening
session and names of participants.
Seventh: The Data Bank created a CD-ROM containing the proceedings
of the Second Meeting of the Working Group to Explore
Opportunities of Cooperation in The Exploration of Natural
Gas.
3-4 Out look of World Oil Demand Until 2010 and their Impact on the
Production of Member Countries
This report is of great importance to the member countries as their
socioeconomic development is closely linked to the prospective
developments in the world oil demand levels. The report reviews the
situation up to 2010, factors controlling consumption, and the main features
for its development since 1985. The report also reviewed the efforts of the
oil countries to keep abreast with the latest developments in international
oil markets, and measures adopted for its stability in order to maintain
prices within the previously set band ($22-$28/OPEC barrel) which gained
consensus of the various members of the oil market.
The report focused on the following main issues:
1- The development of oil consumption and supplies, 1985-2001.
2- The world economic performance, as well as the demand and supply
until 2003.
3- Out look of oil consumption and supply up to 2010.
4- Oil production in some member countries until 2010.
5- Probable repercussions on the member countries.
150 General Secretariat
• The combined cycle has continued to increase the demand for natural gas
in Arab countries where the rate of electricity energy utilization rises by
10% per year. Thus, the prospective gas consumption rates increased in
the countries which do not possess gas resources in addition to natural
gas exporting countries.
• The gas producing countries witnessed an upsurge in the exporting
capacity from 7.3 trillion cubic meters at the end of 1999 to 19.8 trillion
cubic meters at the end of 2001. These amounts will increase to 30
trillion cubic meters if we consider Qatar’s recently explored reserves
which were announced in May 2002.
• The Arab country’s’ rich experience in the field of electricity inter-
connections, and the development of the GAFTA increased the incentive
of expansion in the field of natural gas cooperation.
A- Country Papers
The conference began with the addresses of the Arab ministers and
heads of the delegations, which have reviewed the energy situation in their
countries. The addresses reiterated the vital role of the energy sector in the
field of socioeconomic development and commended the national efforts in
strengthening inter-Arab relations and the Arab countries relations with the
rest of the world.
Arab and International Cooperation 153
The country papers shed light on the basis and general trends of the
energy programs in the Arab countries and reviewed; the current
developments and future prospects of oil and energy in terms of reserves,
supplies, the overall and sectoral consumption, energy prices, and pricing
policies in the local markets. The papers comprised special chapters on
major issues relating to; oil industries, energy investments, measures related
to environment conservation, development of the workforce in the energy
industry, the institutional framework of energy affairs, research and
development in the energy industry, and the inter-Arab, regional and
international relations in the field of energy.
B- Panel Discussions
The Conference agenda included four Panel Discussions with the
following themes:
C- Technical Sessions:
The conference agenda included four Technical sessions with the
following themes:
2- Study on the Future of the World and Arab Natural Gas Industry: Gas
utilization and markets”
4- paper entitled “Oil and Gas Industry in the Arab Countries: Present
and Future”
This paper was presented to the First Syrian Oil and Gas Symposium,
which was held in Damascus during 2-4 April 2002. The paper indicated
that the Arab region hold enormous amounts of oil and gas reserves. The
proven oil reserves in the Arab countries at the end of 2001 were estimated
at around 651 billion barrels or 61% of the world oil reserves. While the
natural gas reserves were estimated at about 40.7 trillion cubic meters or
more than 25% of the world natural gas reserves. There is a high potential
of adding new reserves by means of:
• Realizing new discoveries, and developing the discovered ones, which
are not yet put on production.
• Better understanding of reservoirs and improving the recovery factors.
• Applying improved oil recovery techniques.
• Using new technologies.
The paper mentioned that the world of liquid hydrocarbons production
rates reached 74.5 million b/d in 2000, of which the Arab countries
produced 21.2 million b/d of oil and 2.3 million b/d of natural gas liquids
(NGL), or 31.5% of the total world production. As for the future, the paper
mentioned that the analysts forecast the increase in oil demand in the
forthcoming years to be about 1.5% per year, although the September 2001
events in the USA had a pessimistic impact with regard to this increase.
Albeit, some experts believe that this economic slump will not continue for
long, and will soon return to grow and thus raise the oil demand. In spite of
all that, it is expected that the Arab countries will provide the bulk of the
additional supplies, particularly the main oil producers which are; Saudi
Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq. This will require boosting production
capacities which will entail securing enormous investments and that on the
other hand will not take place unless there are suitable assurances of the
markets where only fair prices promote such investments.
Concerning the natural gas, the paper indicated that the Arab countries
witnessed an immense increase in consumption, particularly in the field of
generating electricity, and as a fuel and feedstock for industry.
In addition, some Arab countries export natural gas through pipelines
or in the form of liquefied gas (LNG). There are currently projects under
construction or study to establish pipelines and new liquefaction plants
aimed at increasing exports to neighbouring Arab countries or to
international markets. The paper mentioned that the total number of
refineries in the Arab countries reached 68 with a total capacity of around
158 General Secretariat
6.9 million barrels/day. The Arab and international refining industry are
facing some challenges related to producing clean fuel with harsh
specifications which entails further investments.
Furthermore, the paper discussed the oil hypothetical life expectancy,
and meeting the needs of future supplies. It indicated that conventional oil
could meet the world demand at least up to 2020. However, in case of any
technical breakthrough or the production of non-conventional oil with fair
costs, then the world oil production will meet the demand at least until the
middle of this century. Finally, the paper emphasized the importance of
cooperation among Arab countries in the field of oil and gas industry.
This paper was presented to the conference on “Oil, Energy & Gas:
Prospects of The Near East Region,” which was held in Geneva,
Switzerland during 8-9 July 2002.
The paper referred to the important geological location of the Near
East Region within the Arabian Platform and the Zagros foothills, which is
rich in oil resources (oil, gas) then the paper reviewed the exploration
situation in (Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Jordon, Egypt and Sudan), their
proven and discovered reserves, as well as production. It also examined the
undiscovered reserves, the source rock formations, reservoir rocks, cap
rocks, and reached the following recommendations:
- The countries under study (with the exception of Lebanon and Jordon to
a certain extent) witnessed a vast exploration and development activities.
Yet these activities did not cover all the promising areas and did not
penetrate the deep formations of the discovered fields. It is believed that
continuing and expanding these activities will lead to an enormous
additions to the oil and gas reserves.
- These countries are concerned to reach some kind of agreements with
investors and specialized companies that possess technologies and
market outlets, in order to carry out the exploration and the development
of the oil and gas resources. These agreements could be in the form of
service contracts, joint contracts, production sharing contracts or any
other arrangements that satisfy both parties.
8- The Future of Arab and International Refining Industry and the Role
of Scientific Research in its Development
The study analysed demand growth rates on refined oil product in the
Arab and world which was witnessed in the past few decades and was
attributed to the volatility of oil prices and the world economic growth,
which reached 1.4% per year during 1985-1997. It was affected negatively
in 1998 due to the economic crisis of the Eastern Asian countries. It is
projected that world demand on refined oil products will grow around 2%
per year during 2000–2010 and by a 1.6% annual growth rate during 2010-
2015.
The recommendations of the study can be summarised as follows:
• In 2000, North America held around 28% of the world refined oil
products consumption, followed by Asia 26%, Eastern Europe 20.3%.
As for the Arab countries, they held only 4.7% of the total world
consumption. The demand growth rates varied on refined oil products
from one product to the other and according to the different parts of the
world.
• The Worlds primary atmospheric distillation in oil refineries reached
81.4 million b/d by the end of 2000. Asia holds the lions share reaching
23.5%, followed by USA with 12.6%, followed by Western Europe
17.5%, then Eastern Europe and the FSU 9.9%. The Arab countries share
was 8.2% of the total world energy in the same year. By the end of 2015,
the total primary atmospheric distillation is expected to rise by 13.5
million b/d than its levels in 2000. This increase is expected to come
mostly from Asia 64.5% followed by USA 16.5%. The Arab countries
share in the prospective increase will reach 3.7% only.
• There is a projected increase in the capacities of other refining operations
by the end of 2015 namely; hydro-cracking operations, fluid catalytic
cracking, hydrotreating, alkylation, reforming, coking, isomerization,
oxygenates, and hydrogen production.
• The study reviewed the world oil refinery production rates to incorporate
all kinds of refined oil products and compared the world’s consumption
to production.
The comparison shows the following conclusions:
1- USA and Asia are importers of all kinds of refined oil products, as they
both suffer from a shortage; it is projected that this situation will
continue until 2010.
162 General Secretariat
2- The Arab countries and Latin America are exporters of refined products.
Western and Eastern Europe are importers of some refined oil products
and exporters of others.
3- The study confirmed the importance of scientific research in the
development of the refining industry and gave examples to that, where
it developed distillation operations from a batch process to a continuous
process. The reforming processes witnessed an increase in the
conversion ratio and the type of new catalytic agent; it also reviewed
the impact of scientific research on developing both the production
techniques or technologies and the kind of catalytic agents in all types
of refining operations.
4- The study concluded by highlighting the challenges facing the refining
industry represented by environmental laws and legislations requires
the production of clean fuels which in turn requires a high flexibility in
the oil refineries.
The theme of the seminar was “The Future of Natural Gas.” OAPEC’s
Secretary General and the President of IFP opened the seminar.
The paper reviewed the efforts made within the Arab League
framework and the recommendations adopted by the Executive Bureau of
the Arab Ministers Responsible for Environment Affairs at its preparatory
meeting for the Eighth Session of the (COP) which was in Damascus
during 21-23 May 2002. She also reviewed the results of the Johannesburg
Summit and Arab initiatives at the Summit and called for benefiting from
the initiatives proposed within the framework of sustainable development
particularly those concerning energy issues.
The Sessions were attended by delegations from all the Arab states
with the exception of Somalia and the Comoros, as well as representatives
from 22 Arab organizations. The agenda of both Sessions focused on the
(GAFTA).
This brings the total Arab countries which ratified the Agreement to
20 countries. Djibouti and the Comoros are the two remaining countries
which have not ratified the agreement until now.
166 General Secretariat
The Arab Summit which was held in Beirut decided that “The
Economic and Social Council will be responsible for the speedy finalization
of the concept and suggestions for the Arab customs union study which will
be presented to the next Arab Summit.”
GCC States,” which was held in Doha, Qatar on 11 March 2002. It was
supervised by the Gulf Organization for Industrial Consulting (GOIC) in
collaboration with the World Trade Organization (WTO).
H.E. Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Atiya, Qatar’s Minister of Energy,
Industry, Electricity and Water, opened the seminar, which was attended by
60 participants from ministries of commerce, industry, and energy, as well
as federations of chambers of commerce and industry in the GCC states.
The program covered 3 main issues:
- The objectives and activities of the WTO and the challenges and the
potential of the industrial sector in the GCC states under the framework
of the WTO agreements. In addition to the objectives and activities of the
Gulf Industrial Investment Organization.
- Getting acquainted with the fundamental principals governing the work
structures of the WTO particularly those relating to the most favoured
nations, national treatments and intellectual property rights.
- Reviewing the texts and accords relating to crude-oil as they appeared in
the final document of the Uruguay Round and their impact on trade in
oil-exporting countries.
In conclusion, the seminar issued a number of recommendations
namely; the maximum benefit from the “preferential treatment” which the
Agreement grants to the developing countries, the call for employing the
membership of the WTO as a pillar to reinforce and bolster negotiations
with the consuming countries to facilitate resolving the pending issues of
oil and related industries.
1- A strategic plan to be set for each organization, and to make plans for
the next ten years with the goal of reaching Arab economic integration.
2- The importance of the Arab national and regional financial
organizations participation in the Committee meetings.
3- Arab investments and the investment map which was prepared by the
Arab Economic Union Council should be developed, in collaboration
with the specialized Arab unions and the Arab financial institutions.
4- The call for further cooperation between the specialized Arab
organizations and the public union for commerce and agriculture in the
Arab countries as a representative for the private Arab sector.
5- The call for the Arab countries to deal with the Arab organizations as
houses of expertise.
The day before the symposium H.E. the Syrian Minister of Oil and
Mineral Resources opened Syroil 2002, the third Syrian-International Oil
and Gas Exhibition. There was a wide range of Syrian, Arab, and
international participation, to get acquainted with the latest technologies
and equipment in the international oil and gas industry. The exhibition
proceeded from 1-5 April 2002.
The theme of the symposium was “The Oil and Gas Industry and the
Challenges of Development.” It was inaugurated by H.E. Dr Ibrahim
Haddad, the Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources, on behalf of the
symposium’s patron, the Syrian Prime Minister.
174 General Secretariat
• Impact factors: These include specifying and identifying the type of oil
spills and quantity, sensitivity of resources, sensitivity of habitats,
weather and response of flora and fauna to pollutants.
• Environmental planning: This involves compiling resource mapping
leakage sites and zones, prioritizing areas to be protected, and training
and equipping the personnel responsible for implementing the measures.
• Analyzing environmental benefits: This includes informing all the
authorities and stakeholders involved with Oil Spills, comparing the spill
response methods and types of incident response, and assessing the
environmental situation and prioritizing resources at risk based on
environmental and socio-economic factors in order to minimize the risks
and limit the magnitude of impacts and enhance recovery.
3-14 Oil, Energy and Gas conference: Perspectives of the Near East
Region
In response to an invitation from the conference organizers (CWC
group and MEES), OAPEC’s General Secretariat participated in the Oil,
Energy and Gas Conference held in Geneva during 8-9 July 2002, and
presented a paper entitled “Hydrocarbon Potential in Near East Countries”.
A total of 70 participants attended the conference, including official
delegations from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, in addition to other
regional and Arab institutes and companies. The conference considered
and assessed various issues on oil, gas and electrical energy in the Near
East Countries defined by the sponsors as Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen,
Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey.
176 General Secretariat
3-17 The 14th Session of the Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for
Environmental Affairs and it’s Executive Bureau and the
Meetings of the General Assembly of the Joint Committee on the
Environment and Development
The Council discussed the items on the agenda and adopted several
decisions of which:
The Conference elected Mr. Fadel Lary, from Kuwait, to be the Vice
President of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation.
a) Mr. Omer Bakheit and Dr. Husham Lutfi from the Republic of the
Sudan;
b) Mr. Faraj Hussein Al Maqsabi and Mr. Moufid Belmerad Ben
Lemrabet from Libya;
c) Dr. Hamdi Abou el-Naga from the Arab Republic of Egypt.
- Selecting the Topic of the OAPEC Award for Scientific Research 2004
The Executive Bureau in its 103rd meeting in Cairo during 12-13
October 2002 selected the topic for the 2004 Award as “Activation of
Mature Fields and Boosting their Productivity”.
The topic was announced in December 2002. 31 May 2004 was set as
the deadline for receiving the research works.
182 General Secretariat
V. SUPPORTING ACTIVITIES
1. Media Activities
The General Secretariat continued its media activities in the following
areas:
Table 5-1
Publications Issued and Distributed by
the General Secretariat in 2002
Total
Total Copies
No.of No.of Copies
Title of Publications Copies Distri-
Editions Copies Distri-
Printed buted
buted
Periodicals
- OAPEC Secretary General’s Annual Report 2001 (Arabic) 1 1500 1500 650 650
- OAPEC Secretary General’s Annual Report 2001 (English) 1 750 750 550 550
- Oil and Arab Cooperation; issues (100-104) 4 800 3200 500 2000
- Energy Resources Monitor – Arab and International 4 400 1600 375 1500
Books
Table 5-2
General Secretariat Employees, 1968-2002
1968 4 7 11
1969 10 14 24
1970 12 22 34
1971 10 23 33
1972 9 24 33
1973 11 23 34
1974 15 33 48
1975 31 48 79
1976 37 58 95
1977 40 70 110
1978 41 71 112
1979 45 79 124
1980 51 81 132
1981 47 87 134
1982 44 90 134
1983 51 88 139
1984 49 86 135
1985 50 82 132
1986 43 75 118
1987 24 51 75
1988 18 43 61
1989 23 39 62
1990 23 41 64
1991 22 39 61
1992 21 36 57
1993 22 33 55
1994 21 28 49
1995 21 29 50
1996 21 30 51
1997 19 32 51
1998 20 30 50
1999 17 36 53
2000 22 29 51
2001 21 31 52
2002 21 32 53
186 Tables
Table 5-3
General Secretariat Actual Expenditure by Budget Category,
1968-2002
(Thousand Kuwaiti dinars)
1968 9 18 - 27
1969 67 52 18 137
1970 97 75 55 227
1971 107 50 25 182
1972 126 63 17 206
1973 108 66 230 404
1974 152 140 50 342
1975 343 335 81 759
1976 525 306 434 1265
1977 694 329 367 1390
1978 807 335 467 1609
1979 929 401 432 1762
1980 1133 415 437 1985
1981 1277 461 559 2297
1982 1546 527 588 2661
1983 1763 547 634 2944
1984 1812 515 508 2835
1985 1818 447 422 2687
1986 1697 413 286 2396
1987 1439 385 190 2014
1988 799 244 122 1165
1989 733 242 145 1120
1990 771 250 141 1162
1991 693 276 87 1056
1992 734 322 114 1170
1993 765 327 118 1210
1994 718 282 127 1127
1995 709 380 140 1229
1996 725 370 140 1235
1997 725 374 148 1247
1998 735 385 140 1260
1999 712 397 127 1236
2000 799 394 138 1331
2001 886 384 141 1411
2002 885 383 146 1414
Total 27,838 10,890 7,774 46,502
AMPTC 187
CHAPTER THREE
OAPEC-SPONSORED VENTURES
OAPEC’s sponsored ventures are striving to develop their activities
using their own resources. Some of them have encountered difficult
circumstances owing to the problems of the previous years which relate to
the regional and international situation and the nature of their business.
Some face strong competition from major international companies while
others such as the Arab Shipbuilding and Repair Yard Company and the
Arab Petroleum Services Company have experienced problems entering the
Arab market, and is no doubt that the international developments witnessed
in 2001 and 2002 have placed an immense adverse impact on OAPEC’s
sponsored ventures, particularly by limiting the opportunities for
international funding and raising the element of risk for Arab institutions.
This had resulted in the postponement of several major projects.
In spite of this, some of these companies were able to overcome and
achieve tangible and satisfactory results. 2002 has marked an increase in the
level of cooperation and coordination among OAPEC-sponsored
companies, both in terms of project execution and financial and technical
support. The companies recognize that the decisions relating to their
activities lie within the competence of their general assemblies and board of
directors. They nevertheless hope for more support from OAPEC member
countries, especially when it comes to entering Arab markets on a
competitive footing, if not preferential basis.
Net profit of the Company for 2001 amounted to $2.590 million. The
actual revenues for 2001 resulting from chartering the Company’s oil
tankers amounted to $46.241 million, while the operating cost of the oil
tankers, excluding depreciation, was $21.079. Gross profit of fleet
operation, after depreciation, was $10.143 million. While the total
chartering activity and re-chartering in the world markets were $419
thousand. The other non-operational revenues reached $618 thousand till
the end of December 2001.
As for the activities of the company for the first half of 2002, the
company followed a volunteering and selective system with regard to
operational systems which supercedes the international and regional
requirements on environment conservation and the human safety. The
outcome of the financial results of the first half of 2002 corresponded with
the estimated budget which was surrounding the maritime transport
markets.
Project and trade finance activities have been robust during the 3rd
quarter of this year, covering most countries in the Arab region, including
North Africa. This was positively reflected in the Corporation’s loan
portfolio, which totalled by the end of September 2002 US$1.067 million,
compared to US$864 million at the beginning of the year, an increase of
24%.
APPENDICES
- Approved the 2003 budget of OAPEC (The General Secretariat and the
Judicial Tribunal) amounting to KD1,629,250.
- Reviewed a report on the 7th Arab Energy Conference which was held in
Cairo during the period 11-14 May 2002 emphasizing the importance of
its recommendations.
- Received the decision of the Arbitration Panel of the 2002 OAPEC
Award for Scientific Research on papers addressing the topic of: “The
Future of Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) and How It Compares
with Other Octane Enhancing Oxygenates” and announced the names of
prize winners: The First Prize, amounting to K.D.5,000 was awarded to
Engineer Sa’ad Allah Al Fathi from the Republic of Iraq. The Second
Prize, amounting to K.D.3,000 was awarded and divided between; Mr.
Omer Bakheit and Dr. Husham Lutfi from the Republic of the Sudan,
Mr. Faraj Hussein Al Maqsabi and Mr. Moufid Belmerad Ben
Lembrabet from the Algerian Democratic and Popular Republic, and to
Dr. Hamdi Abou el-Naja from the Arab Republic of Egypt.
- Reviewed memoranda reviewing the progress in OAPEC Data Bank,
monitoring the issue of environment, the participation and organisation
of technical meetings as well as the preparation of studies.
- Reviewed a report on OAPEC – sponsored ventures activities, and took
note of the thirty-first meeting of the officials of these ventures and the
Organization’s General Secretariat. As for the Arab Petroleum Training
Institute, the Council resolved to extend the period during which the
Republic of Iraq is entrusted to sponsor the Institute for one year
effective 1st January 2003.
- Agreed to convene the next Ministerial Meeting in Cairo on 13/12/ 2003.
Expressed profound appreciation to the President, government and
people the Arab Republic of Egypt, for hospitality and generosity, and
perfect preparation, which was conducive to the success of the meeting.
- Forwarded a message of appreciation to His Excellency Mohamed Hosni
Mubarak, the President of the Arab Republic of Egypt, for hospitality
and support.
200 Appendices
June
- Experts’ Meeting on the Results of the Fourth
Ministerial Conference of the World Trade
Organization and Preparation for the Forthcoming Beirut 5-6
Negotiations
- 102nd Meeting of OAPEC’s Executive Bureau Cairo 8-9
- 68th Meeting of OAPEC’s Ministerial Council Cairo 10
- Meeting of the Organizations Participating in the
Preparation of the Unified Arab Economic Report Abu Dhabi 23-27
- “The Future of Natural Gas” Seminar Paris 25-27
Appendices 201
September
- Oxford Energy Seminar Oxford 2-12
- The 70th Session of the Economic and Social Council Cairo 9-10
- The Eighth International Energy Forum Japan 21-23
October
- Second Expert Meeting on Potential Cooperation in
Natural Gas Industry Cairo 1-2
- 9th Coordination Meeting of Environment Experts Cairo 5-6
- Coordination Meeting of OAPEC-Sponsored Ventures Cairo 8
- 103rd Meeting of OAPEC’s Executive Bureau Cairo 12-13
- The 10th Abu Dhabi International Petroleum
Exhibition and Conference Abu Dhabi 13-16
- Expert Group Meeting on Building Skills and
Regional Integration to Develop the Sustainable Beirut 15-17
Energy Sector
- OAPEC’s Scientific Research Award 2002 Cairo 15-16
- The 14th Session of the Council of Arab Ministers
Responsible for Environmental Affairs and it’s Sharm El- 20-21
Executive Bureau Sheikh