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HIGHER CERTIFICATE IN STATISTICS, 2007

Paper I : Statistical Theory Time Allowed: Three Hours

Candidates should answer FIVE questions. All questions carry equal marks. The number of marks allotted for each part-question is shown in brackets.

Graph paper and Official tables are provided.

Candidates may use calculators in accordance with the regulations published in the Society's "Guide to Examinations" (document Ex1).

The notation log denotes logarithm to base e. Logarithms to any other base are explicitly identified, e.g. log10. ⎛n⎞ Note also that ⎜ ⎟ is the same as nCr. ⎜r ⎟ ⎝ ⎠ 1

HC Paper I 2007

This examination paper consists of 9 printed pages each printed on one side only. This front cover is page 1. Question 1 starts on page 2. There are 8 questions altogether in the paper. ©RSS 2007

(9) 2 Turn over . or otherwise. each digit is said to occupy its "home" position. and the random variable X denotes the number of digits occupying their respective home positions. When the digits 1.1. 3. and calculate E(X) and Var(X). 3. 2. 3. 2. (a) (b) (c) (d) show that there are 9 orderings in which no digit occupies its home position. show that there are 8 orderings in which exactly one digit occupies its home position. 4 are put in random order. 2. find the number of orderings in which all four digits each occupy their respective home positions. (10) (iii) The digits 1. find the number of orderings in which exactly two digits each occupy their respective home positions. the 3rd place is the home position of the digit 3. Write down the probability distribution of X. 4 are placed in ascending order (without repetition). For example. (i) (ii) How many possible orderings of the digits 1. 4 are there? (1) By enumeration.

(a) (b) (c) Show that the probability that none of Mrs Smith's brothers is a haemophiliac. the probability that Mrs Smith's son will be a haemophiliac is 1/8. Write down the probability that none of Mrs Smith's brothers is a haemophiliac. but a female who carries the gene will pass it on to each of her children independently with probability ½ in each case. none of whom is a haemophiliac.2. only one of whom is a haemophiliac? (6) Suppose throughout this part that Mrs Smith's mother has only one brother. is 1/16. (i) Mrs Smith is expecting her first child (a son). Assume throughout this question that males with haemophilia (haemophiliacs) do not marry or have children. who is a haemophiliac. in the light of this information. Explain clearly why. and that Mrs Smith has four brothers. given that Mrs Smith's mother does not carry the gene. What is now the probability that Mrs Smith's son will be a haemophiliac? (10) (ii) 3 Turn over . given that Mrs Smith's mother carries the gene. (4) The gene for haemophilia (the inability of blood to clot) produces no symptom in females. What would be the probability if instead it is known that Mrs Smith's mother has four brothers. and it is known that Mrs Smith's maternal uncle (the only brother of Mrs Smith's mother) is a haemophiliac. State Bayes' theorem.

using the ˆ value of α found in part (iii). Calculate α and an approximate 95% confidence (4) interval for α.. (6) 4 Turn over . and that the sum and sum of squares of the sample values are 39. x2 . for α > 2 .. show that α ~ N(α.6 respectively.3. The random variable X has the Pareto distribution with probability density function (pdf) f ( x) = α (1 + x ) α +1 . x > 0. (5) (ii) ) n approximately if the sample size is large. α > 0. E(X) = 1 . α2 (iii) ∑ log(1 + x ) i =1 i 100 ˆ = 28.57... . and comment briefly. x2 . (i) Show that the maximum likelihood estimate of α is given by ˆ α= n i =1 ∑ log(1 + xi ) n . xn is taken from this distribution. α −1 Var(X) = (α − 1)2 (α − 2) α . (iv) You are now given that.4 and 52. (5) A random sample x1 ... Also calculate the sample mean and variance. . Evaluate the mean and variance of this distribution. and a random sample x1 . x100 which is assumed to be from the pdf f(x) gives ˆ Stating any results you assume without proof. Hence derive an approximate 95% ˆ confidence interval for α in terms of α and n.

so that P ( X = x ) = e− λ λx x! .. 1. λ > 0. in a year of 6 accidents. (4) Deduce that the unconditional probability that. (4) (iii) Hence show that the marginal distribution of the number of fatal accidents on this stretch of road in any given year is Poisson with mean λp. the probability that. λ > 0. 2. 2. the probability that it involves one or more fatalities (i. at most one is fatal.2. there are x accidents of which y are fatal. x. in any given year. The annual number. (7) Given that λ = 10 and p = 0. 0 < p < 1. y ) = y y x− y λ p e− λ . . find (a) (b) the probability that in a given year there are no fatal accidents.. …. 2. is binomial. x = 0. (i) Given that a total of x accidents occurs in a given year. (5) (iv) 5 Turn over . 1. is given by p ( x. 1. ⎡ λ (1 − p ) ⎤ ⎦ y! ⎣ ( x − y )! (ii) for x = 0. explain why the distribution of the number of fatal accidents in that year. and write down the parameters of this distribution..e. it is a fatal accident) is p.4. y = 0. of accidents on a certain stretch of road is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution with mean λ. X say. independently of all other accidents. For any accident on this stretch of road. … . Y(x) say.

For any non-negative integer x. 2. (i) The random variable X has the geometric probability mass function (pmf) given by p(x. If P(X = Y) = ½ and also P(X < Y) = P(X > Y). p2). p1 + p2 − p1 p2 (6) (iv) Show that P(X = Y ) = p1 p2 . By writing P ( X > Y ) = ∑ P (Y = y ) P ( X > Y | Y = y ) . p1 ) = (1 − p1 ) x−1 p1 . y =1 ∞ or otherwise. show that P( X > Y ) = p2 (1 − p1 ) . p1) for the case p1 = 0. x (ii) (4) (iii) The random variable Y is distributed independently of X with pmf p(x. x = 1. 3.4 and 1 ≤ x ≤ 5. where 0 < p2 < 1.5. p1 + p2 − p1 p2 and hence write down P(X < Y). and deduce a condition on p1 and p2 such that P(X = Y) = ½. 0 < p1 < 1. show that P ( X > x ) = (1 − p1 ) . (4) Sketch the graph of p(x.…. (6) 6 Turn over . solve for p1 and p2.

Find the probability that this requirement is not met.6. of a randomly chosen passenger is Normally distributed with mean 65 and standard deviation 6. and cabin luggage weighing C kg. and find P(T > 110). W say. W ~ N(65. H and C being independent within and between passengers. Find the probability that a randomly chosen passenger's hold luggage is recorded as weighing 24 kg or more. Assume that the weight in kg.5. i. Assume also that a randomly chosen passenger has hold luggage weighing H kg. the random variables H and C are not independent but instead the correlation between them is –0. (i) A passenger aircraft carries 100 passengers. W. where C ~ N(6. 4). for each passenger.e. (a) Write down the distribution of the total weight in kg. (3) The check-in scales record the weight of hold luggage to the nearest kg. (4) (iii) 7 Turn over . where H ~ N(20. of a randomly chosen passenger and his or her hold and cabin luggage. What is now the probability that the safety requirement is not met? (6) Comment critically on the assumptions listed in part (i) of this question. T say. (3) (b) (c) (ii) Now suppose that. (4) A safety requirement is that the total weight of all 100 passengers and their luggage should not exceed 9300 kg. all other assumptions being as before. 36). 9).

0 < p < 1 . n... f X (x ) = p (n + 1 − x ) f ( x − 1) . (1 − p )x X x = 0. (i) (ii) Which sequence should he choose to maximise the probability of hitting the target in two consecutive shots? Find the mean and variance of the number of times the player hits the target when firing in the order A B A. He is allowed three shots at the target. which must be fired alternately. (10) (b) In a game of target practice. By considering the case p(n + 1 − x ) = 1 . and show that.4 with B. the mean np lies between the two modes. 2. a player has two guns. and when firing in the order B A B. 2. which must be fired either in the order A B A or in the order B A B. (10) (iii) Comment on your results. ⎝ x⎠ Show that. His probability of hitting the target is 0. and deduce that the mode m of X is the largest integer satisfying m ≤ (n + 1)p. for any such distribution. 1.8 with A and 0. …. 8 Turn over .. for x = 1. A and B.7.. write down an example of a binomial (1 − p )x distribution which has two consecutive equal maximal probabilities. (a) The random variable X has the binomial distribution with probability mass function (pmf) ⎛n⎞ n− x f X ( x ) = ⎜ ⎟ p x (1 − p ) . n. Assume that events relating to different shots are independent.

for this regression. .. (8) (b) You are given that. Calculate the residual mean square. when a linear regression of y on x is fitted to data ( x1 . yn ) . L E 1 2 1 3 2 4 2 2 3 8 ΣLE = 300 3 10 4 13 4 13 5 11 5 14 ΣL = 30 ΣE = 80 ΣL2 = 110 (i) ΣE2 = 852 It is proposed to analyse these data using simple linear regression analysis. The results are as shown in the following table.. (8) (a) Fit a straight line to the data by the method of least squares. Note: you should state clearly any formulae you use. the standard error of the intercept parameter is (ii) s i =1 n ∑ xi n 2 n ∑ ( xi − x )2 i =1 . stating any necessary assumptions. where x = 1 n ∑ xi . but you do not need to prove them.. (4) 9 . ( xn . and give a point estimate of the expected extension when the load is 350 grams. in hundreds of grams) are hung from the bottom end of the wire. s2 say. State which of L and E should be taken as the independent variable and which as the dependent variable. Construct a scatterplot of the data and comment on their suitability for linear regression analysis.8. and the extension (E. A uniform thin wire is fixed at its top end. Varying loads (L. Test this hypothesis against a two-sided alternative. which implies that the intercept parameter in the linear regression fitted in (i) should be zero. y1 ) . Theoretical physics suggests that the extension of n i =1 the wire should be proportional to the load put on it. and why. in millimetres) of the wire for each load is measured.

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