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2010 WEEK SIX
H R AR IS
A VIEW FROM THE SIDELINE
The More Things Change...
Well, you know the rest. The more things stay the same.
With leaves changing daily during the Autumn months, it’s easy to think about this time of year and changes. But, as the trade of Randy Moss this week proved, change can sometimes only restore order and restore what we know to b e ultimately true. Randy Moss is a Viking and always will be. Alabama is the top dog in college football as it’s been since the outset of the 2009 season. LSU head coach Les Miles can bungle the end of a close game more than anyone I’ve ever seen. Those things don’t change and will never change. But, as the calendar flips over to another weekend, the intrigue in the Parity League - aka the NFL - goes to a different level with three key players back from four game suspensions this week - Brian Cushing for the Texans, Santonio Holmes with the Jets and Ben Roethlisberger with the Steelers. And, Moss m o v e s t o t h e Vi k i n g s f o r another matchup with Darrelle Revis - a guilty pleasure The college game chugs along toward mid-season where separation is starting to show. Alabama is clearly the best team in the nation. Oregon and B o i s e S t a te a r e l e g i t i m a te national championship contenders. The SEC has the spotlight this w e e ke n d w i t h # 1 r a n ke d Alabama traveling to South Carolina while LSU goes to Gainesville to take on Florida. Somewhere, SEC Guy is smiling.
Lance and John have joined forces with Orangebloods.com this season, the University of Texas home on the rivals.com network. Check out their work at orangebloods.com
Catch Lance with John Granato 6-10 am CST on 1560 The Game. Listen to John with Sean “the Cablinasian” Pendergast from 3-7 PM in the afternoon. www.1560thegame.com
New York Giants (2 - 2) vs. Houston (3 - 1)
October 10, 2010 - Fox 12 PM CST Vegas Says: Houston -3/47.5
R 133.5 ypg - 7th 2010 ATS Record 2-2-0 2010 Over/Under 2-2-0 Last 5 games Oct 3, 2010 Sep 26, 2010 Sep 19, 2010 Sep 12, 2010 Jan 3, 2010 W L L W L 17-3 Chicago 29-10 Tennessee 38-14 Indianapolis 31-18 Carolina 44-7 Minnesota 235.5 ypg - 9th 2010 Ranking Run Offense Pass Offense 172.0 ypg - 1st 243.5 ypg - 8th 2010 ATS Record 3 -1 - 0 2010 Over/Under 3-1-0 Last 5 games Oct 3, 2010 Sep 26, 2010 Sep 19, 2010 Sep 12, 2010 Jan 3, 2010 W L W W W 31-24 Oakland 27-14 Dallas 30-27 Washington 34-24 Indianapolis 34-27 New England
369.0 ypg - 7th Total Offense 415.5 ypg - 2nd 18.0 ppg - 21st Scoring Off. 27.0 ppg - 4th 70.2 ypg - 2nd
117.2 ypg - 22nd Run Defense
139.8 ypg - 2nd Pass Defense 337.8 ypg - 32nd 257.0 ypg - 3rd Total Defense 408.0 ypg - 32nd 22.0 ppg - 22nd Scoring Def. 25.5 ppg - 26th
Last Meeting: NY Giants - 14 vs. Houston - 10 (11/5/2006)
When the Giants have the ball...The Giants are a running team no matter what their passing stats
looked like last year. This year, the Giants have only been average running the ball until last week when they had a strong performance on the ground against the Bears. The Giants have a terrific deep threat in Hakeem Nicks and another in Mario Manningham and Steve Smith can handle the short to intermediate routes. While the Giants have offensive balance and the ability to move the ball, they have turned it over 13 times in four games including at least 3 times in each of their games. Eli Manning Fantasy Scoop goes into this game knowing that Nicks is a threat If you are still starting Owen Daniels, I can’t vs. the Texans secondary so watch for some long help you. Andre Johnson is a gametime balls. decision, but if he goes, you almost have to When the Texans have the ball...The Texans start him. Arian Foster is obviously a go, but I would give a very average rating for Ahmad are the best running team in the league and the Bradshaw. Hakeem Nicks and Steve Giants have given up 160 yards rushing to both the Smith are starts, but not Kevin Walter or Colts and Titans this year. While the Giants aren’t Jacoby Jones. terrible against the run, they can be run on. The key for the Texans is going to be running the football and getting up on the Giants early because if the Texans try to throw it around too much, they are going to put their offensive line in a tough spot against the pass rush of the Giants. If Andre Johnson doesn’t play, look for the Giants to crowd the line of scrimmage and refuse to let Arian Foster beat them since the Giants secondary has allowed 148 yards passing or less in 3 of their 4 games. Prediction: The Texans will be a better team with Brian Cushing The Z Key back and one of the things that he will help with is the ability to rush Texans LT Rashad Butler the passer. If the Texans get after Eli Manning effectively, the Giants vs. won’t be able to score with the Texans over the course of the game. Giants DE Osi Umenyiora
HOUSTON - 24 VS. NY GIANTS - 20
Tennessee (2 - 2) vs. Dallas (1 - 2)
October 10, 2010 - CBS 3:15 PM CST Vegas Says: Dallas -6.5/41.5
R 133.2 ypg - 9th 2010 ATS Record 2-2-0 2010 Over/Under 2-2-0 Last 5 games Oct 3, 2010 L 26-20 Sep 26, 2010 W 29-10 Sep 19, 2010 L 19-11 Sep 12, 2010 W 38-13 Jan 3, 2010 W 17-13 Denver NY Giants Pittsburgh Oakland Seattle 2010 Ranking Run Offense 80.0 ypg - 26th 311.7 ypg - 4th 2010 ATS Record 1-2-0 2010 Over/Under 1-2-0 Last 5 games Sep 26, 2010 W 27-13 Sep 19, 2010 L 27-20 Sep 12, 2010 L 13-7 Jan 17, 2010 L 34-3 Jan 9, 2010 W 34-14 Houston Chicago Washington Minnesota Philadelphia
152.2 ypg - 29th Pass Offense
285.5 ypg - 27th Total Offense 391.7 ypg - 5th 24.5 ppg - 7th Scoring Off. 18.0 ppg - 20th 83.7 ypg - 8th
92.0 ypg - 10th Run Defense
210.8 ypg - 13th Pass Defense 215.7 ypg - 14th 302.8 ypg - 9th Total Defense 299.3 ypg - 8th 17.0 ppg - 9th Scoring Def. 17.7 ppg - 10th
Last Meeting: Dallas - 45 vs. Tennessee - 14 (10/1/2006)
When the Titans have the ball...The Titans are realizing slowly but surely that things are going to go
quite as easily for Chris Johnson this year as last. Headed into the game, CJ is averaging less than 4 ypc while Javon Ringer is averaging over 7 ypc. If the Titans don’t run the ball successfully against the Cowboys, they have to depend on Vince Young to move it through the air and I don’t see that happening against the Cowboys 3-4 front. We could see the old VY who scrambles out of the pocket and tries to make things happen with his feet and that might be a good thing for the Titans since DEs Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware will heat the pocket up.
When the Cowboys have the ball ... The
Titans defensive front is better this year than last, but they are still reliant upon their LBs to have good games in order to pick the defense up. The Cowboys are coming off of their best offensive performance of the year vs. the Texans and if they are finally turning the corner with their offense, then the Titans will be in trouble. The Titans defense broke down last year because they couldn’t rush the passer and if they don’t pressure Tony Romo, he will light the Titans up with Miles Austin and Dez Bryant doing most of the damage. We will see if the bye week has the Cowboys ready to build on what we saw from them in week 3.
I know you hate doing it, but you have to give Marion Barber a look as an average RB3 option but Felix Jones is also going to be getting more carries so beware. Tony Romo gets the start here and I actually think that VY might be a decent option this week if you are very week at QB. Sit Kenny Britt this week.
The Z Key
Titans RB Chris Johnson vs. Cowboys safeties Alan Ball and Gerald Sensabaugh
Prediction: If Dallas doesn’t come in with a strong first quarter or
even first half, then I don’t know what they did in the bye week because they had the additional time to figure out what they were doing wrong as well as how to exploit the Titans. Cowboys’ recovery is under way.
DALLAS - 24 VS. TENNESSEE - 17
Other Key NFL Games
VEGAS SAYS: GB -3/44
(3-1) GREEN BAY VS. (2-2) WASHINGTON
October 10, 2010 - Fox 12 PM CST
The Good: This game features two of the best,
The Bad: If you are a parent with a son who is young 3-4 OLBs in the game an aspiring running back, right now in Brian don’t let him watch this Orakpo and Clay The Money Matchup : Aaron game. It will be a waste of Ma t t h e w s . While his time. Packers average Rodgers is slowly working his way into the Ma t t h e w s uses 3.9 ypc despite having a conversation with QBs like Manning, Brees, outstanding quickness passing game that strikes Brady but he is missing their playoff success. and natural pass rushing fear into safeties and the Redskins safety Laron Landry has NFL instincts, Orakpo is a Redskins average less than people around the league talking as he is combination of 100 ypg on the ground. turning into quite the weapon, but his athleticism and pure The Redskins hope that secondary needs to play better. Landry will be power. The Redskins backup RB Ryan Torain lined up all over the place so his battle against know that the Packers can bring some life to the Rodgers will be a good one. won’t run the ball against Redskins rushing attack them so Orakpo has a because if not, the Packers chance to tee off against the pass while Matthews will be all over McNabb. could be very disruptive against the play-action game of the Redskins. PREDICTION: GREEN BAY - 28 VS. WASHINGTON - 23
(1-2) MINNESOTA VS. (3-1) NEW YORK JETS
October 11, 2010 - ESPN 7:30 PM CST
VEGAS SAYS: NYJ -4/39
The Good: Are you ready for this?
is no other than Jets QB Mark Sanchez. He had a tough opening week against the Ravens but bounced back and showed great mental toughness against the Patriots in the next one while winning on the road against the Dolphins and Bil ls in weeks 3 and 4. With Sanchez at the helm, the Jets have turned it over only one time this year.
The Bad: It is impossible to spotlight the great
job that Sanchez has done for his team without The Money Matchup: Speaking of spotlighting the negative that is Brett Favre’s Mr. Moss, he gets a rematch with Darrelle performance. Favre has Revis after beating him for two catches looked out of sync and including a TD in week 2 when he was with unsure of himself which is the Patriots. Revis recently took a shot at evident by his 2/6 TD to Moss for not playing hard in the second half of INT tally. With Randy that game (even though Revis left the game Moss on the squad, the with an injury) and I’m sure he is looking to Vikings hope that Favre shut Moss down after being posterized by will not only have a target Moss’ one handed TD catch. the he trusts, but that it will also free up Percy Harvin to be more involved.
PREDICTION: MINNESOTA - 20 VS. NEW YORK - 16
All Access Score Predictor
Denver @ Baltimore Sunday October 10, 2010
Record 2-2 3-1 Teams Denver Baltimore Odds Prediction 38.5 17 -7 23 Odds Prediction PK 24 41 21 All Access Says: There isn't a QB flying under the radar more than Kyle Orton right now. Over his first four games of the year, Orton has more passing yards than any QB in NFL history other than Kurt Warner in 2000. The question is whether or not they can protect Orton. Ray Rice and the running game get it going here.
Jacksonville @ Buffalo Sunday October 10, 2010
Record 2-2 0-4 Teams Jacksonville Buffalo
All Access Says: The Jags will be playing with much more confidence after knocking off the Colts and should be able to run against a Bills rush defense allowing 174 ypg. The Jags secondary play has been miserable which should help the putrid Bills ‘O’. They’ve faced a brutal schedule so far so this will be a step down in competition.
Atlanta @ Cleveland Sunday October 10, 2010
Record 3-1 1-3 Teams Atlanta Cleveland Odds Prediction -3 24 40.5 17
Kansas City @ Indianapolis Sunday October 10, 2010
Record 3-0 2-2 Teams Kansas City Indianapolis Odds Prediction 45.5 17 -7.5 28
All Access Says: A week after getting a win at home over the Bengals, the Browns aren't going to sneak up on the Falcons after the Falcons almost blew their game against the Niners. The Browns have been torched by Boldin and T.O. so far and Roddy White figures to put a big game on them as well.
All Access Says: Everyone who has tried to run the ball against the Colts has been able to do so. The Broncos stopped trying, but I don't see the Chiefs putting the running game on hold. On the other hand, the Chiefs have beaten teams with a 3-9 record and if the Colts jump out on them quickly, they may get out of their gameplan.
Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati Sunday October 10, 2010
Record 2-1 2-2 Teams Tampa Bay Cincinnati Odds Prediction 38 13 6.5 21 Record 2-2 0-4
St. Louis @ Detroit Sunday October 10, 2010
Teams St. Louis Detroit Odds Prediction 42.5 14 -3 21
All Access Says: The Bengals came out flat against the Browns and it wouldn't shock me in the least if they were asleep at the wheel for the first half of this game. The Bucs have had extra time to rest and prepare so we should see a spirited first half effort, but the Bengals pull away in the 2nd half behind their defense.
All Access Says: While they haven't exactly played a murderer's row of offenses so far, the Rams are allowing just 13 ppg and Sam Bradford is playing great at QB. Every team the Lions have played so far are playoff contenders and they've played to within a TD of all but the Vikings. Both teams are improving, but Lions pass rush causes problems here.
Chicago @ Carolina Sunday October 10, 2010
Record 3-1 0-4 Teams Chicago Carolina Odds Prediction 2.5 21 35.5 20 Record 3-1 2-2
New Orleans @ Arizona Sunday October 10, 2010
Teams New Orleans Arizona Odds Prediction -7 35 44.5 17
All Access Says: Dangerous spot here for the Bears as the Panthers are looking a little better on offense. Pass protection has been and will continue to be a problem for Chicago, but look for much more Matt Forte in this spot. Chicago's vaunted rush defense was gashed against the Giants so we'll see what Stewart/Williams can do.
All Access Says: The Saints haven't been themselves this year which isn't all that unexpected after winning the Super Bowl. In fact, this is right about where the Steelers started to stumble. That won't happen here. The Saints beat up on the Cardinals and make a statement with a huge offensive performance.
San Diego @ Oakland Sunday October 10, 2010
Record 2-2 1-3 Teams San Diego Oakland Odds Prediction -6 24 45 20
All Access Score Predictor
Philadelphia @ San Francisco Sunday October 10, 2010
Record 2-2 0-4 Teams Philadelphia San Francisco Odds Prediction 38 17 -3 21 All Access Says: The Niners should have beaten the Saints and the Falcons and sitting here at 2-2. Instead, they are 0-4 and finding new ways to beat themselves. The Eagles ‘O’ looked much less effective under Kevin Kolb and with the Niners in a must-win, they get there behind their defense.
All Access Says: Which Charger team will we see this week? Will we see the team who has lost to the Chiefs and the Seahawks or the one who smashed the Cardinals and Jaguars? The Raiders pass defense is sound, but the rushing defense has been an issue. Pair that with an injury to Darren McFadden and you have a Chargers win.
NFL News and Notes
The Bears were riding high after their 3-0 start and they knew that if they could get past the , they could be in great position moving forward since their schedule is about to get very soft, but after getting destroyed by the Giants pass rush, their are major concerns for the Bears. Even with Mike Martz there, the Bears are 25th in the league in total offense and next to last in rushing yards with just 68.8 per game. Martz also has a way of rubbing offensive line coaches the wrong way by not running it enough and by leaving them on an island in terms of pass protection. If Cutler starts to turn on Martz, this season could implode on the Bears. After watching Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn over the last few weeks, it is readily apparent that the Packers have to find a way to get better at the RB position if they want to maximize their chances at getting to the Super Bowl. One of the reasons that Green Bay was an 11 win team last year was because Ryan Grant was such a great compliment to Aaron Rodger's passing attack. Without that ground game, the Packers aren't going to be as dangerous as the season progresses and the weather begins to change. Julius Jones is out there on the waiver wire now, but the Packers should have given up the 4th round pick for Marshawn Lynch who was traded to the Seahawks. He who hesitates.... gets beat in the playoffs. After seemingly missing on draft pick Chris Long a couple of years back, the Rams are very happy with current Rookie of the Year frontrunner Sam Bradford. After getting off to a little bit of a shaky start from an accuracy standpoint (he was having trouble delivering the short to intermediate balls where they needed to be), Bradford has really picked his game up quickly and is playing with all the poise in the world which is rare for a rookie - especially one who missed almost the entire season previous. The Rams have 1st round RT Jason Smith manning one tackle spot and 2nd round rookie Rodger Saffold at the LT spot and they are doing a solid job of protecting the Rams big investment. More surprising than Bradford's good start? The Rams defense is allowing just under 14 ppg this year. Do you remember when we used to look at the top teams in the league and invariably they were able to run the ball and stop the run? Times are changing. As Troy Aikman noted last season during a broadcast, it seems that more and more teams have to be able to throw the ball well and might not have to be all that good at running the ball in order to win. Here is a list of the top passing teams from 2009 and their record. 1. Houston: 9-7 2. Indianapolis: 14-2 3. New England: 10-6 4. New Orleans: 13-3 5. San Diego: 13-3 6. Dallas: 11-5 7. Green Bay: 11-5 8. Minnesota: 12-4 9. Pittsburgh: 9-7 10. Philadelphia: 11-5
Fantasy News and Notes
Now that Marshawn Lynch has been traded to the Seahawks, look for his fantasy value to move up. Lynch should be a decent RB2 while Fred Jackson becomes a RB3 and CJ Spiller is worth a FLEX look in PPR leagues. Cadillac Williams looks like he is no longer a viable fantasy option since LeGarrette Blount is getting more action and Kareem Huggins is officially the 3rd down back in Tampa. Drop him, pronto. Santonio Holmes makes his way off of the suspended list this week, but don't go overboard with your expectations. Mark Sanchez is clearly at his best when he is throwing to possession targets like Braylon Edwards and Dustin Keller. While Holmes is the best WR on the Jets roster, look for him to have sporadic success in the Jets offense
So everyone wants to know how the trade of Randy Moss will affect fantasy football owners. Here is what you need to know - Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker will still be just as effective for the Patriots - Brandon Tate is now a worthy waiver wire pick as Moss' replacement - Moss' value will go up now that he'll get targeted more consistently by Brett Favre - Favre has a target to throw to down the field so Favre is once again a factor for fantasy owners - Percy Harvin will probably get more looks/ touches, but I feel like that was going to happen regardless of Moss. With Clinton Portis expected to miss 4 to 6 weeks, Ryan Torain is obviously a no-brainer in terms of the waiver wire, but don't be surprised to see him have some success. Shanahan was a fan of Torain's when he was at Denver and I think he feels like Torain is a good fit Darren McFadden is nursing a sore hamstring and could end up sitting this weekend's action out. Michael Bush is back and already getting carries and while McFadden looks much more dangerous than Bush at this point, don't underestimate the potential for Bush to snag some carries away from McFadden on a more permanent basis if McFadden misses even this week. Max Hall is the new QB in Arizona and while that won't change the fortune of the Cardinals (they are definitely "dead team walking"), it will be a move that will help fantasy owners looking for bye week help. Even if Hall isn't great, he's still going to be behind this week to the Saints and he's still able to throw to Larry Fitzgerald. He'll get you some fantasy points. I had Eddie Royal much higher in my fantasy rating than most out there and the reason was simple he was moving to the slot. By moving to the slot, QB Kyle Orton is now able to get the ball in Royal's hands more easily which means he is turning into a beast in PPR leagues since the Broncos don't seem to care much about the running the football right now.
Sweetheart Parlay of the Week
A View from the Sideline’s
Jakoob wuz here
You need a hug. Arkansas -5
. e.. m ss da -6 Ki ri Flo
Be Mi ne Vik ing s +4
Alabama (5 - 0) vs. South Carolina (3 - 1)
October 9, 2010 - CBS 2:30 PM CST Vegas Says: Alabama -7/48
Keys to the Game
Sep 4, 2010 W, SJSU 49-7 Sep 11, 2010 W, Penn St. 24-3 Sep 18, 2010 W, Duke 62-13 Sep 25, 2010 W, Arkansas 24-20 Oct 2, 2010 W, Florida 31-6 Oct 9, 2010 @ South Carolina Oct 16, 2010 Ole Miss Oct 23, 2010 @ Tennessee Oct 30, 2010 BYE Nov 6, 2010 @ LSU Nov 13, 2010 Mississippi State Nov 20, 2010 Georgia State Nov 26, 2010 Auburn R 229.8 ypg - 17th 234.2 ypg - 46th 464.0 ypg - 20th 37.8 ppg - 16th 101.0 ypg - 19th 191.4 ypg - 50th 292.4 ypg - 20th 9.0 ppg - 1st 2010 Ranking Run Offense Pass Offense Total Offense Scoring Offense Run Defense Pass Defense Total Defense Scoring Defense 168.5 ypg - 54th 221.8 ypg - 63rd 390.3 ypg - 55th 30.8 ppg - 50th 128.3 ypg - 41st 240.3 ypg - 88th 368.5 ypg - 71st 18.3 ppg - 33rd Sep 2, 2010 W, So. Miss 41-13 Sep 11, 2010 W, Georgia 17-6 Sep 18, 2010 W, Furman 38-19 Sep 25, 2010 L, Auburn 35-27 Oct 2, 2010 BYE Oct 9, 2010 Alabama Oct 16, 2010 @ Kentucky Oct 23, 2010 @ Vanderbilt Oct 30, 2010 Tennessee Nov 6, 2010 Arkansas Nov 13, 2010 @ Florida Nov 20, 2010 Troy Nov 27, 2010 @ Clemson
Proj. Offensive Starters
QB RB H WR WR TE LT LG C RG RT 12 22 85 8 4 89 77 65 73 75 76 Greg McElroy Sr. Mark Ingram Jr. Preston Dial Sr. Julio Jones Jr. Marquis Maze Jr. Michael Williams So. James Carpenter Sr. Chance Warmack So. William Vlachos Jr. Barrett Jones So. D.J Fluker Fr.
No wonder Lane Kiffin was so pissed - When South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery turned down Lane Kiffin and the University of Tennessee in the spring of 2009, the former Vol head coach was irate. Remember when Kiffin told Jeffery he was making a career mistake, that he would rue that decision and because of it, he’d be pumping gas for a career? Whether it was myth or fact, it’s easy to why Kiffin was so angry having lost the 6’4” 233 pound physical specimen. Jeffery has more receptions than the 2nd, 3rd and 4th ranked receivers on the squad and might be the focal point for the Alabama defense. It may not start out that way as the Tide will put its defensive focus on true freshman running back Marcus Lattimore and the Gamecock running game. But, in putting such a laser-like focus on Lattimore, the secondary is left to handle Jeffery on its own. Now, expect the Tide safeties Robert Lester and Mark Barron to roll coverage toward Jeffery. Regardless, Jeffery will have a significant impact this week. Triple Play - It’s not often when the key to a major SEC game is found in the offensive line, especially from guard to guard. But, one the most underrated aspects of the Crimson Tide in 2010 is the Tide’s trio inside - Chance Warmack, William Vlachos and Barrett Jones. It’s difficult for a lot of people to look inside and see these three impacting the game. However, the way the Tide runs power plays, either Jones or Warmack is on the move, pulling from one side to the other, making many key blocks in the process. South Carolina is stout on the defensive front, but these three could control the game with the way they get off the ball and stay on blocks.
Proj. Offensive Starters
QB RB WR WR WR TE LT LG C RG RT 5 Stephen Garcia 21 Marcus Lattimore 1 Alshon Jeffery 81 Tori Gurley 82 D.L. Moore 47 Patrick DiMarco 76 Jarriel King 77 Garrett Chisolm 55 T.J. Johnson 73 Rokevious Watkins 68 Kyle Nunn Jr. Fr. So. So. So. Sr. Sr. Sr. So. Jr. Jr.
Proj. Defensive Starters
DE NT DE LB LB LB LB CB SS FS CB 92 Damion Square 99 Josh Chapman 57 Marcell Dareus 5 Jerrell Harris 30 Dont’a Hightower 35 Nico Johnson 41 Courtney Upshaw 21 Dre Kirkpatrick 4 Mark Barron 37 Robert Lester 24 DeQuan Menzie So. Jr. Jr. Jr. So. So. Jr. So. Jr. So. Jr.
Proj. Defensive Starters
DE DT DT DE LB LB Spur CB FS SS CB 98 Devin Taylor 42 Travian Robertson 91 Ladi Ajiboye 83 Cliff Matthews 41 Josh Dickerson 16 Shaq Wilson 26 Antonio Allen 5 Stephon Gilmore 36 D.J. Swearinger 21 Devonte Holloman 17 Chris Culliver So. Jr. Sr. Sr. Sr. Jr. Jr. So. So. So. Sr.
Gettin’ Wild - When Gamecock coach Steve Spurrier’s offense struggled in 2010, he turned to the same weapon that Alabama OC Jim McElwain turned to in 2010 - the Wildcat. South Carolina’s version will put CB Stephon Gilmore in the gun, alongside Lattimore. That combination could elicit a modicum of fear for the Alabama defense and could give the USC offense a boost. Conclusion - When I did my pre-season predictions, this was the one game that I thought would be Alabama’s lone loss of the season. Coming off a comeback road win at Arkansas and a physical win over Florida, I surmised that a Gamecock team lying in the weeds would surprise Alabama, especially after a bye week. But, this Alabama team is just too good, on the road or at home.
Alabama - 23 vs. South Carolina - 12
LSU (5 - 0) vs. Florida (4 - 1)
October 9, 2010 - ESPN 6:30 PM CST Vegas Says: Florida -6.5/42.5
Keys to the Game
Sep 4, 2010 Sep 11, 2010 Sep 18, 2010 Sep 25, 2010 Oct 2, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 16, 2010 Oct 23, 2010 Oct 30, 2010 Nov 6, 2010 Nov 13, 2010 Nov 20, 2010 Nov 27, 2010 W, UNC 30-24 W, Vandy 27-3 W, MSU 29-7 W, WVU 20-14 W, Tenn. 16-14 @ Florida McNeese State @ Auburn BYE Alabama ULM Ole Miss @ Arkansas R 195.6 ypg - 33rd 131.0 ypg - 112th 326.6 ypg - 91st 24.4 ppg - 83rd 79.0 ypg - 6th 167.6 ypg - 22nd 246.6 ypg - 6th 12.4 ppg - 5th 2010 Ranking Run Offense Pass Offense Total Offense Scoring Offense Run Defense Pass Defense Total Defense Scoring Defense 151.0 ypg - 65th 188.8 ypg - 83rd 339.8 ypg - 84th 31.4 ppg - 46th 109.2 ypg - 25th 181.8 ypg - 39th 291.0 ypg - 19th 17.6 ppg - 26th Sep 4, 2010 Sep 11, 2010 Sep 18, 2010 Sep 25, 2010 Oct 2, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 16, 2010 Oct 23, 2010 Oct 30, 2010 Nov 6, 2010 Nov 13, 2010 Nov 20, 2010 Nov 26, 2010 W, Miami 34-12 W, USF 38-14 W, Tennessee 31-17 W, Kentucky 48-14 L, Alabama 31-6 LSU Mississippi State BYE v. Georgia (JAX) @ Vanderbilt South Carolina Appalachian State @ Florida State
Proj. Offensive Starters
QB RB WR WR WR TE LT LG C RG RT J. Jefferson/J. Lee 34 Stevan Ridley 10 Russell Shepard 2 Reuben Randle 80 Terrence Toliver 19 D’Angelo Peterson 78 Joe Barksdale 68 Josh Dworaczyk Lonergan/Hebert 74 Josh Williford 72 Alex Hurst Jr. So. So. Sr. Jr. Sr. Jr. Fr. So.
Ridley me this, Batman - The LSU offense has so few bright spots this season, if any at all. However, a significant early season question mark has been answered resoundingly by LSU RB Stevan Ridley. With a handful of guys pushing to be the starter, Ridley snatched the starting job and doesn’t look like he’s in the mood to give it back anytime soon. He’s rushed for 100+ yards in three of the five LSU games and is averaging 111.4 yards per game, in addition to four touchdowns. In essence, he’s been the Tigers offense through the first five games of the season. But, with no assistance from his quarterback situation, Ridley is in a tough spot this week facing the Gators defense. The Gators held Mark Ingram to less than 50 yards and less than four yards a carry last week in Tuscaloosa. Considering how little positive impact the LSU quarterbacks have on a game, Ridley is that much more important in this one. The Gators know that, too. Breaking the Mold - Although Gators QB John Brantley is nursing some sore ribs, he’d better get healthy in a hurry if the Gators plan on moving the ball against LSU. It sounds somewhat idiotic to think the Gators must throw the ball against the LSU secondary, including All-American CB Patrick Peterson. However, it might be the one thing this offense can do better than anything else. With Gators RB Jeff Demps still nursing a bum ankle and the running game a shell of what it was in 2009 or 2008, it’s time for Gators OC Steve Addazio to hand the ball to Brantley and tell him to let it fly. I know, he had 2 picks against Alabama, but the Gators averaged less than three yards per carry on the ground. The Florida offense moved the ball into scoring position when Brantley was chuckin’ it. Head Buttin’ - The best matchup of the weekend, in this, or any other game, will be Florida center Mike Pouncey and LSU DT Drake Nevis. If UF is going to go in the shotgun, Nevis could be a major problem for Pouncey snapping the football. Regardless, these two are the best each team has and will be a key this Sat.
Proj. Offensive Starters
QB RB WR WR WR TE LT LG C RG RT 12 John Brantley 2 Jeff Demps 6 Deonte Thompson 8 Trey Burton 9 Carl Moore 11 Jordan Reed 76 Marcus Gilbert 57 Carl Johnson 55 Mike Pouncey 74 Maurice Hurt 73 Xavier Nixon Jr. Jr. Jr. Fr. Sr. Fr. Sr. Sr. Sr. Sr. So.
Proj. Defensive Starters
DE DT DT DE LB LB LB CB SS FS CB 94 95 92 89 23 11 22 17 15 37 7 Kendric Adams Pep Levingston Drake Nevis Lavar Edwards Stefoin Francois Kelvin Sheppard Ryan Baker Morris Claiborne Brandon Taylor Karnell Hatcher Patrick Peterson Jr. Sr. Sr. So. Jr. Sr. So. So. Jr. Jr. Jr.
Proj. Defensive Starters
DE DT DT DE LB LB LB CB SS FS CB 94 99 6 44 16 52 43 1 35 10 8 Justin Trattou Omar Hunter Jaye Howard Duke Lemmens AJ Jones Jonathan Bostic Jelani Jenkins Janoris Jenkins Ahmad Black Will Hill Jeremy Brown Sr. So. Jr. Sr. Sr. So. Fr. Jr. Sr. Jr. So.
Conclusion - The 2 teams are a combined 9-1, but ask their respective fan bases and you’d think each one had a losing record. I don’t know if Florida is truly that good, but playing in G’ville, with a banged up QB, will be enough to push that one Florida’s way.
Florida - 17 vs. LSU - 9
Other Key Games
Vegas says: Nebraska -11/50
perhaps, its most important game of the season. Led by RB Daniel Thomas, Kansas State must continue to establish the ground game, but that’s running right into the teeth of the best defensive front in the Big 12. But, if K State is going to have a chance, it desperately needs for Thomas to pile up carries and move the chains. The problem is that KSU’s defense has to stop Nebraska. It can’t. PREDICTION: Nebraska - 30 vs. KSU - 21
NEBRASKA VS. KANSAS STATE
October 7, 2010 - ESPN 6:30 PM CST
When the pundits, me included, previewed the Big 12 this season, we all just chalked up the Big 12 North to the Nebraska Cornhuskers and didn’t look back. Making matters worse, not many of expected Kansas State to be a factor in this conference race. ALL of that can change on Thursday night in Manhattan. With Kansas State undefeated and at home for an ESPN Thursday night game, it’s conceivable to think that the Huskers are playing,
MICHIGAN STATE VS. MICHIGAN
October 9, 2010 - ESPN 2:30 PM CST
Last year, the surprising Michigan Wolverines t r a v e l e d t o E a s t L a n s i n g t o t a ke o n a n underwhelming, underachieving Michigan State Spartan squad. Suffice it to say, Sparty’s overtime win changed the fortune of both teams last year as the Spartans parlayed that win into an Alamo Bowl berth and sent Michigan into a tailspin. This year, both teams are undefeated, coming off of Big 10 opening week wins - Michigan’s on the road against Indiana, while Michigan State took down Wisconsin
Vegas says: Michigan -4.5/64.5
at home. But, with this game taking place in Ann Arbor and with Denard Robinson at quarterback for the Maize and Blue, the Spartans are going to win a shootout. The Spartans have proven that they can win a game any number of ways, but the defense hasn’t faced an offense with as many dynamic moving parts as Michigan’s offense. Robinson has to get some more help, but with the ball in his hands 80 to 90% of the time, it’s a good thing. PREDICTION: Michigan - 41 vs. MSU - 34
FLORIDA STATE VS. MIAMI
October 9, 2010 - ABC 7:05 PM CST
Just saying the words Florida State vs. Miami gives me chills. Now, let’s be honest, this isn’t the 1980s or 1990s when these two were frequent visitors in the top five or top ten. But, with Jimbo Fisher taking over in Tallahassee, the Seminoles can maybe see the light from the tunnel of mediocrity. FSU got pounded in Norman by a fired up Oklahoma squad, but has rebounded with convincing wins over BYU, Wake Forest and Virginia. It won’t be surprising when none of those three make a bowl game at the
Vegas says: Miami -6/OFF
end of the season. However, the Noles have played much better. The Canes haven’t played clean football in wins over Pitt and Clemson, but two big wins on the road have shown how capable this team is. The key is going to be which QB can be productive without being destructive. Jacory Harris’ line last week included four TDs and two picks (8 combined INT in 2010). But, Harris ability to pick apart the Seminoles young secondary is the key. PREDICTION: Miami - 31 vs. FSU - 24
ARKANSAS VS. TEXAS A&M
October 9, 2010 - ABC 2:30 PM CST
Both Arkansas and Texas A&M have had plenty of time to lick their wounds after crushing defeats. Arkansas melted down in the second half against #1 ranked Alabama after it had a 20-7 lead at halftime. Texas A&M’s meltdown was even more galling as the Aggies rode the roller coaster all night long. The Ags jumped out front 21-7, watched OSU score 28 unanswered for a 35-21 lead, fought back to tie it at 35, gain possession with a minute left to kick game winning FG and then...PFFFLFFFTTTT. The air out
Vegas says: Arkansas -5.5/62
of the balloon. Y probably know the rest. That ou ending and the memory of last year’s loss to Arkansas have most Aggie fans wanting to just make a good showing. In addition, Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett has plenty to prove after a poor second half against Alabama. His key is whether he can make solid decisions as he did in the first half against the Tide. Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino must call the “right” game for Mallett to make that happen. PREDICTION: Arkansas - 42 vs. Texas A&M - 31
All Access Score Predictor
Date Oct 8, 2010 Oct 8, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 Oct 9, 2010 TV/Time (CST) ESPN 6:30 PM ESPN 8 PM ESPN 11 am BTN 11 am ESPN3.com 11 am ESPN3.com 11 am ESPN 2 11 am ESPNU 11 am ESPN3.com 11 am ESPN3.com 11 am FSN 11 am MTN 1 PM ESPN3.com 1 PM 1:00 PM CBS CSTV 2:30 PM FSN 2:30 PM ESPNU 2:30 PM NBC 2:30 PM ESPN 2:30 PM ESPN3.com 2:30 PM ESPN3.com 2:30 PM 2:30 PM 2:30 PM ESPN3.com 3 PM FSN 4 PM Vs. 5 PM MTN 5 PM ESPN3.com 5:30 PM 6:00 PM FSN 6 PM ESPNU 6 PM 6:00 PM 6:00 PM ESPN 2 6:30 PM BTN 6:30 PM 6:30 PM ESPN3.com 7 PM ABC 7 PM ESPN3.com 7 PM CBS CSTV 7 PM 7:00 PM 8:05 PM FSN 9 PM 9:00 PM ESPNU 9:30 PM Team U Conn Oklahoma State Indiana Minnesota Syracuse Boston College Illinois v/@ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Team Rutgers ULL Ohio State Wisconsin South Florida NC State Penn State Virginia Tech Ball State NIU Texas Tech Georgia Air Force Louisville Ohio TCU Cal Georgia Tech Notre Dame North Carolina West Virginia FIU Kent State Tulane La. Tech Washington State Arizona Brigham Young Wake Forest Iowa State Missouri Vanderbilt Cincinnati ULM Kentucky Northwestern Southern Miss Boise State Stanford New Mexico State Houston SMU UTEP Washington Fresno State Nevada Prediction U Conn - 27 vs. Rutgers - 23 Oklahoma State - 45 vs. ULL - 21 Ohio State - 42 vs. Indiana - 17 Wisconsin - 49 vs. Minnesota - 14 USF - 34 vs. Syracuse - 17 NC State - 31 vs. Boston College - 14 Penn State - 27 vs. Illinois - 10 Virginia Tech - 38 vs. CMU - 14 Western Michigan - 31 vs. Ball State - 16 NIU - 24 vs. Temple - 21 Baylor - 35 vs. Texas Tech - 31 Georgia - 23 vs. Tennessee - 14 Air Force - 38 vs. Colorado State - 7 Louisville - 24 vs. Memphis - 23 Ohio - 28 vs. Bowling Green - 20 TCU - 31 vs. Wyoming - 10 Cal - 27 vs. UCLA - 24 Georgia Tech - 31 vs. UVa - 14 Notre Dame - 34 vs. Pitt - 21 Clemson - 28 vs. UNC - 27 West Virginia - 42 vs. UNLV - 14 FIU - 35 vs. WKU - 20 Kent State - 17 vs. Akron - 16 Tulane - 27 vs. Army - 24 La. Tech - 27 vs. Utah State - 26 Oregon - 63 vs. Washington State - 14 Arizona - 27 vs. Oregon State - 21 San Diego State - 34 vs. BYU - 21 Navy - 21 vs. Wake Forest - 20 Utah - 34 vs. Iowa State - 21 Missouri - 31 vs. Colorado - 21 Vanderbilt - 28 vs. EMU - 14 Cincinnati - 30 vs. Miami (OH) - 20 FAU - 24 vs. ULM - 20 Auburn - 34 vs. Kentucky - 27 Northwestern - 31 vs. Purdue - 28 So. Miss - 38 vs. ECU - 27 Boise State - 51 vs. Toledo - 21 Stanford - 35 vs. USC - 28 New Mexico - 7 vs. NMSU - 2 Mississippi State - 42 vs. Houston - 29 SMU - 38 vs. Tulsa - 34 UTEP - 39 vs. Rice - 30 Washington - 34 vs. Arizona State - 27 Fresno State - 42 vs. Hawai’i - 35 Nevada - 42 vs. SJSU - 14
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan @ Temple Baylor Tennessee Colorado State Memphis Bowling Green Wyoming UCLA Virginia Pitt Clemson UNLV Akron Army Utah State Oregon Oregon State San Diego State Navy Utah Colorado Miami (OH) FAU Auburn Purdue East Carolina Toledo USC New Mexico Mississippi State Tulsa Rice Arizona State Hawai’i San Jose State @ v. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @
Oct 9, 2010 SEC Network 11:21 am
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