Detailed Nifty Analysis 21 Sep 10

On 5/8/10. First. we published an article on Nifty: http://activetrades.Flashback. we sent a file to over 10000 people via different networks and .zip Also post The file can be still downloaded at http://activetrades.

with charts! . we can have next phase of rally which should not stop before 5800. See Yourself!! PS: We just don t give our OPINION or FEELING or PERSONAL TGT Instead we provided complete data.Presentation became Present ! If it breaks 5555.

Rest other were delivered real time to clients and social networks. Went long. 5565 long were given vide PPTs and articles. . sold SL 5565 5500 hits Longed at 5565 Booked long Longed at 5480 for tgt 5555 Longed at 5380 for tgt 5500 Covered at 5350. 5800 hits 5552 hits.Nifty and ActiveTrades Note: 5380 long. 5552 short.

. Exactly that happened. Our every PPT had this slide.Now you will miss something. Guess What?! NIFTY LONG TERM TGT HIT! Since our first PPT (4400 Nifty). we have been continuously saying about 6000 Nifty Long Term Target . And see it happened!!!!! And all this with proper charts and reasoning.

the range might break and we might be headed towards 10k or 15k on Nifty. Now that is hit. markets retraced the prvs high and even made a higher high but remained in the range of 700-1700 effectively. the range broke and markets went up from 1500 to 6300 in a few years! Globally.Nifty Long Term Chart Conclusion from the long term chart basic analysis: 1) The long term bullishness is still over. 2) The very long term bullishness is maybe intact. we used to suggest target 6000. Maybe when the world economy becomes BULLISH . our view remains that in the long term. But that will take time. What next? There is not enough statistical data available that can ascertain the forward movements. there happens a rangebound consolidation which takes LONGER THAN THE TIME TAKEN FOR THE MOVEMENT. . Nifty Long Term Chart: At 4400. As you can see. So. market might remain rangebound for sometime. after any big rise-fall cycle. 3) May follow 1990-2000 decade. A 400% rise then 60% fall has only happened once since 1980 1994 (scam). After very long term consolidation.

.Observations: 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Minor support at 5990. 6500. which should be stop of all longs. Basic wave support at 5200. Upside targets: 6180. Major support at 5850. Short term movement: above 6031 tgt 6090.

This kept the public from benefiting. If Reliance is bullish. 5) Bulls may now use Reliance to create rally-part-2 (if happens). Similarly 911 came on Reliance and it went up. SOLD. and Reliance falling What combination is that? Everybody including us was surprised by this behaviour of the stock. Public still loves Reliance scrip. 3) All the other stocks are not favourite of public. Looking back.Reliance Markets rising. . This kept people from buying. everything is P: either Physics or Politics. it seems: 1) This was a game of bulls and not bears to keep Reliance drifting down. Pun intended. But apart from long term fundamentals. 911 came in US and went. and instead many retail traders unaware of 5800 target. there is euphoria. 2) Markets moved on support and compensation by other large caps (rare case) and Reliance kept falling down. markets made a bottom at 911 and rallied from there. 4) Reliance creates an image in minds of people.

is there even a family who produces on its own and consumes the same without transacting with the world? No! Then. Bharatiye Share Bazaar sabse mahaan! Jokes apart. then WHY and HOW? Forget country. Yes. it will be at a higher premium (which it already is) and may even create higher highs given by other local and or technical factors. like every other country.India Mera Bharat Mahan. expect Nifty to be at the level where sensex is today! . India may not fly at the speed of light. since it is the best. can this sustain? If yes. Till there is a growth (not just recovery/relief) in the whole world. how can there be a complete disconnect with the world? The truth remains: India is a part of Earth. But the highs would remain in the domain of the previous highs and the day world starts speaking about GROWTH instead of CRISIS. forget city.

Palringo. People start spending. get in touch socially (Facebook. To know more about technical observations regarding Euphoria. More to come. Else. news channels get a new headline everyday But this is golden period is actually dangerous. and that kicked in. . Our sugar sector has reaped 30% via variety of stocks incl BajHind. it will be a recipe of disaster. Banking etc) So. 2) Zeroes of today will be Heroes of tomorrow (Auto. look for the heroes of tomorrow. Sell on major highs. There are 2 basic rules of investing in fairly valued popular stocks: 1) Buy on major dips. So has Bharti (280 to 360. traders feel easy to trade. make sure that you throw in the seeds of those crops which should grow in the time to come. kyunki paise perh par nahi ugte . Orkut. IT. Twitter. If you sow. This is a state where there is a lot of FEEL GOOD factor in almost everybody. Website) You can t sow when its time to harvest.Euphoria There was a technical reason as to why and how there had to be a Euphoria above 5555. 30% up).

get cautious. Now FII must be at ease that Indian Investors are finally buying. The day it buys.FII We see FII has F-Indian Investor. sell. The day you see your neighbours buying stocks all of a sudden. to FII till date. . Do not think that it is India s magic and that magic is making market move up The fact is starting from British Raj. DII is selling. It is the foreign money which is in place and is making the markets move up. Indians are somewhere governed or affected by the foreigners. atleast enough to panic to cover their shorts. The day you feel the confidence inside you. the day you miss the fear inside you be cautious.

So broader price correction should happen only after some time-wise correction is complete. Similar happened in 2007 on the day of P-Notes. 5700 to 5200 something and then 6000. . was 5900. Above 5500. above which there was a target of 5500. expect rangebound movement. So don t hurry up for 4900. I remember. People have a tendency: They get healed with time If a level holds at the top for a while. At higher levels too they were afraid of buying into. Fresh rallies can also happen in stocks which have not moved. then there was a resistance at 5000. after when markets have moved up. they get even more convinced. they get convinced. I remember it almost tick by tick. At that time.Lesson from the past Even though whole staff at ActiveTrades remembers 2007-2008 very clearly. So. I clearly remember nobody was buying (like today) people were thinking of lower levels and they kept on waiting. and when positive news comes out.

FII should continue buying till aam aadmi starts buying. . upside to 6180 made by parallel channels is quite possible. India has decoupled (which was a story in 2007.Summarizing Long term target is hit. Meaning 100 Rs stock to 50 Rs. On the other side. but that should be within the domain of this range. India cannot create heaven for investors in a weather of crisis across the globe. and above that 6450 is the next target. There could be fresh lifetime highs. failed then now effective. that means its time to think differently. when target hits. On the long term. Remember. Like IT sector: failed in 2000. now effective). 5990 is a critical support on the FUT and below that there can be a profit booking to 5870 zone. Reliance looks attractive. then 50 Rs to 100 Rs. looking at the past. 5850 remains an important support. there could be range of 50%-100%. On general basis. On the medium term.

there will be enough opportunities in rangebound consolidation. one needs to watch buying/selling numbers more closely than the index. Even if markets don t move up from 6180/6450. So.Summarizing Euphoria has kicked in. So we advise to exercise caution on longs. But this is the time when it is easiest for the player to exit. . and avoidance of hurry in shorting. It will create sense of positivity across everywhere.

enter again for target 6450. Above 6200 if holds.html) .com/activetrades13) Daily Messages (activetrades. Stop 5990. On the other side if holds below 5990. Above that hold with low volumes for target Email (click mail on www. Note that there will be updates to these levels and shall be delivered via: Orkut (Reasons & Reflections) Facebook (facebook. exit there. At lower Twitter (twitter. go short for 5870. buy again for target 6090 stop Palringo (activetrades.activetrades.What to do? You can create fresh longs above 6031 for 1% movement upto

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