Date: October 22, 2010 To: Interested Parties From: David Scott, Abacus Associates Re: Congressman Hinchey poll _____________________________________________________________________________ In spite of the influx of outside corporate money from American Crossroads GPS and the challenging atmosphere some incumbents are facing, Congressman Hinchey is in a strong position heading into the election. The Hinchey campaign's message and advertising are working effectively against these outside groups and have prevented Republican George Phillips from making serious gains against Congressman Hinchey. Our live interviewer poll of likely voters conducted October 20-21 shows Congressman Hinchey with a 17 point lead over George Phillips, 51%-34%. George Phillips' name recognition is only 39%. In addition, the remaining undecided voters in the district include far fewer Republicans (28%) than Democrats (33%) and blanks (29%). We are confident that most of these Democrats and some of the blanks will break for Congressman Hinchey. In light of these results, while the Congressman will see a decreased margin of victory compared with recent elections, he should still win comfortably. The robopoll data that Mr. Phillips' campaign has been publicizing could not be further off the mark and we expect he is promoting this data to persuade donors and outside groups to continue their involvement in his campaign.
These results are based on a surveys of 403 likely voters in New York’s 22nd Congressional District who are likely to vote in the General Election this November. Voters were selected from NY state voter list files and numbers were called back repeatedly to reach the randomly selected voter. Sampling error for the entire sample on a question where voters are evenly divided is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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