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The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia

The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia

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Published by: forum-ids on Oct 25, 2010
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Climate Change in SE Asia: Costs of Action vs Inaction

John Pearson British High Commission Singapore October 2010

Stern Review

Cost of Action: 1-2% of Global GDP to act now – but more (5-20%) if we delay
Cost of Inaction: Up to 20% of GDP

Climate Change Is Happening

Climate Change is Happening

Climate Change Will Continue

2050: +1.3 - 2.3ºC 2100: +2.4 - 5.0ºC

+70cm sea level by 2100

Climate Change Will Continue

2050: +1.3 - 2.3ºC 2100: +2.4 - 5.0ºC

+70cm sea level by 2100

S E Asia is very vulnerable
People and economy near the sea in low lying areas (Jakarta, Manila...)

Dependent on agriculture and natural resources High level of poverty

Likely Impacts

SE Asia could lose 6.7% of GDP by 2100, if non-market impacts and catastrophic risks are also taken into account.

Drought and saline resistant crops Efficient irrigation techniques

Climate proof infrastructure

Early warning systems

Adaptation Makes Economic Sense
By 2100 Benefit:1.9% of GDP Cost: 0.2% of GDP

12% of world emissions (2000) Will grow greatly in next 30 years So need to tackle now

Reduce Emissions Cheaply
40% of energy-related CO2 emissions cut at “no cost” by 2020 Another 40% cut at below 1% of GDP

Win Win Options


Hydro Power Reservoirs

Harapan rainforest

The Low Carbon Economy

www.adb.org/Documents/Books/ Economics-Climate-Change-SEA/default.asp

World Average – 3.8 tCO2/capita

Climate Change Is Happening
CO2 already the highest in Homo Sapien’s existence

Earliest Evidence of Cooking (400,000)

Homo Sapiens Appear (200,000)

Bronze Age Begins (5500) Agriculture Begins (10,000)

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