ϭϬϱ

Chinu`s Seu-Bused Nucleur Ðeterrent in ±o±o:
Iour Alternutive Iutures Ior Chinu`s SSBN Ileet

Thomcs M. Slupel
1

ThIs urLIcIe uddresses Lhree mujor unuIvLIcuI quesLIons: IIrsL, whuL ure Iour
uILernuLIve Iorce sLrucLures Ior ChInu`s nucIeur buIIIsLIc mIssIIe submurIne (SSBN)
IIeeL In zozo? Second, whuL ure Lhe cosLs und beneIILs Ior euch uILernuLIve IuLure?
ThIrd, whIch Iorce sLrucLure Is BeIjIng mosLIv IIkeIv Lo udopL und whv? ThIs urLIcIe
hvpoLhesIzes LhuL Lhe IuLure oI ChInu`s seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL IIes noL wILh Lhe
much-heruIded Tvpe o¤q 1in-cIuss bouLs buL wILh ILs IoIIow-on, Lhe nuscenL Tvpe
o¤6 SSBN. Once IuIIv operuLIonuI, ChInu`s SSBN IIeeL wIII enhunce ChInu`s sLruLegIc
sLrIke porLIoIIo und sLrengLhen BeIjIng`s overuII deLerrence posLure bv provIdIng
enhunced runge, mobIIILv, sLeuILh, survIvubIIILv, peneLruLIon, und IeLhuIILv.
Introduction
ThIs urLIcIe uddresses Lhree mujor unuIvLIcuI quesLIons: IIrsL, whuL ure Iour
uILernuLIve Iorce sLrucLures Ior ChInu`s nucIeur buIIIsLIc mIssIIe submurIne (SSBN)
IIeeL In zozo? Second, whuL ure Lhe cosLs und beneIILs Ior euch uILernuLIve IuLure?
ThIrd, whIch Iorce sLrucLure Is BeIjIng mosLIv IIkeIv Lo udopL und whv? ThIs urLIcIe
hvpoLhesIzes LhuL Lhe IuLure oI ChInu`s seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL IIes noL wILh Lhe
much-heruIded Tvpe o¤q 1in-cIuss bouLs buL wILh ILs IoIIow-on, Lhe nuscenL Tvpe
o¤6 SSBN.
SchoIurIv und popuIur urLIcIes exumInIng ChInu`s convenLIonuI mIIILurv
modernIzuLIon eIIorLs ubound. ¡n Lhe reuIm oI nuvuI und uIr modernIzuLIon, u greuL
deuI oI uLLenLIon hus Iocused on ChInu`s unLI-uccessJureu-denIuI suILe oI cupubIIILIes
2

whIch ure InLended Lo deLer, sIow, or denv Lhe U.S. Nuvv uccess Lo Lhe regIon In Lhe
evenL oI u TuIwun conLIngencv. AddILIonuIIv, Lhere Is umpIe IILeruLure exumInIng
ChInu`s burgeonIng uIrcruIL currIer progrum. However, ChInu`s nucIeur
modernIzuLIon eIIorLs ure equuIIv ImporLunL when evuIuuLIng Lhe brouder U.S.-ChInu
mIIILurv compeLILIon und ILs ImpIIcuLIons Ior U.S. nuLIonuI securILv und deIense
poIIcv. A more compIeLe undersLundIng oI Lhe U.S.-ChInu mIIILurv compeLILIon
requIres u deLuIIed exumInuLIon oI ChInu`s nucIeur weupons progrum und how IL Is
IIkeIv Lo evoIve In Lhe comIng decudes. U.S. poIIcvmukers und deIense pIunners
requIre Lhese Lvpes oI Iong-runge ussessmenLs In order Lo undersLund how LhIs
mIIILurv compeLILIon mIghL evoIve In Lhe comIng decudes. The nuLure oI LhIs

1
Thomus M. Skvpek Is u nuLIonuI securILv unuIvsL specIuIIzIng In sLruLegIc pIunnIng, poIIcv
unuIvsIs, und neL ussessmenL. He Is u zo1o WushIngLon ¡eIIow uL Lhe NuLIonuI RevIew
¡nsLILuLe. He wouId IIke Lo Lhunk Shunnon Skvpek und Andrew DonIcu Ior LheIr LhoughLIuI
commenLs on eurIIer druILs oI LhIs munuscrIpL. The vIews expressed hereIn ure soIeIv Lhose
oI Lhe uuLhor.
2
Some oI Lhese cupubIIILIes IncIude unLI-shIp cruIse mIssIIes, unLI-shIp buIIIsLIc mIssIIes, unLI-
submurIne wurIure Iorces, und IIghLer uIrcruIL.


ϭϬϲ
reIuLIonshIp wIII shupe Lhe decIsIons oI U.S. sLuLesmen on u runge oI ImporLunL
Issues IncIudIng nuLIonuI securILv sLruLegv, deIense poIIcv, und weupons ucquIsILIon.
ChInu hus one oI Lhe mosL uggressIve nucIeur und mIssIIe modernIzuLIon
progrums In Lhe worId, whIch IncIudes InvesLmenLs In Iund, uIr, und seu-Iuunched
svsLems us weII us spuce und mIssIIe deIense LechnoIogIes.
3
ChInu recenLIv
InLroduced Lwo new Iund-bused InLerconLInenLuI buIIIsLIc mIssIIes (¡CBM), Lhe D¡-·1
und D¡-·1A, und hus commIssIoned u new cIuss oI SSBN uIong wILh u new
submurIne-Iuunched buIIIsLIc mIssIIe (S¡BM). ¡n zo1o, ChInu`s Iund-bused ¡CBM
IIeeL comprIses Lhe buckbone oI ChInu`s nucIeur deLerrenL cupubIIILv.
¡n IucL, unLII recenLIv, ChInu`s hIsLorv wILh SSBNs hus been murked bv
IuIIure. ChInu`s IIrsL SSBN, Lhe Tvpe o¤z or Xic-cIuss submurIne, wus IuId down In
Lhe eurIv 1¤8os und commIssIoned In 1¤8; buL reporLedIv never compIeLed u sIngIe
deLerrenL puLroI.
4
J
5
However, uccordIng Lo vurIous reporLs, ChInu`s new Tvpe o¤q
1in-cIuss bouL und ILs new J¡-z S¡MB wIII provIde ChInu wILh ILs ¨IIrsL credIbIe
second-sLrIke cupubIIILv.¨
6
A credIbIe seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL wouId represenL u
sIgnIIIcunL Ieup In cupubIIILv Ior Lhe PeopIe`s ¡IberuLIon Armv Nuvv (P¡AN).
Once IuIIv operuLIonuI, Lhe P¡AN`s SSBN IIeeL wIII enhunce BeIjIng`s sLruLegIc
sLrIke cupubIIILIes und sLrengLhen BeIjIng`s overuII deLerrence posLure bv provIdIng
enhunced runge, mobIIILv, sLeuILh, survIvubIIILv, peneLruLIon, und IeLhuIILv.
ConLInued ImprovemenLs In ILs muLerIeI cupubIIILIes, coupIed wILh revIsIons Lo ILs
no-IIrsL-use docLrIne und operuLIng concepLs, couId huve sIgnIIIcunL ImpIIcuLIons Ior
U.S. Ireedom oI ucLIon In Lhe AsIu-PucIIIc TheuLer, regIonuI sLubIIILv, und dIpIomuLIc
burguInIng. Such deveIopmenLs wouId LhreuLen WushIngLon`s InLeresLs In Lhe regIon
und huve sIgnIIIcunL ImpIIcuLIons Ior U.S. nuLIonuI securILv.
Assumptions
As wILh unv poIILIcuI-mIIILurv unuIvsIs, und especIuIIv wILh u IuLures-orIenLed
ussessmenL, IL Is ImporLunL Lo IdenLIIv Lhe underIvIng ussumpLIons oI Lhe sLudv. ThIs
sLudv ussumes:

3
1cne's Sentinel Securitu Assessment - Chinc And Northecst Asic, ¨SLruLegIc Weupon
SvsLems, ChInu,¨ June`s ¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., Murch 1z, zo1o, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse,
uccessed June ¤, zo1o).
4
Andrew S. ErIckson und MIchueI S. Chuse, ¨ChInu`s SSBN ¡orces: TrunsILIonIng Lo Lhe NexL
GeneruLIon,¨ Chinc ßrieI, VoI. ¤, ¡ssue 1z, June 1z, zoo¤, uvuIIubIe uL
<hLLp:JJwww.jumesLown.orgJsIngIeJ?no_cuche=1&Lx_LLnews|LL_news|=·=1zo >
5
Huns M. KrIsLensen, RoberL S. NorrIs, und MuLLhew G. McKInzIe, Chinese Nuclecr Iorces
cnd U.S. Nuclecr Wcr Plcnninq (WushIngLon, DC: ¡ederuLIon oI AmerIcun
ScIenLIsLsJNuLuruI Resources DeIense CouncII, November zoo6), p. 8¤.
6

U.S. Nuvv, OIIIce oI NuvuI ¡nLeIIIgence, The People's Liberction Armu Nctu: A Modern
Nctu uith Chinese Chcrccteristics, AugusL zoo¤, p. z·.


ϭϬϳ
• ¡n Lhe comIng decudes, Lhe U.S. und ChInu wIII remuIn enguged In u Iong-
Lerm mIIILurv compeLILIon ukIn Lo Lhe compeLILIon In whIch Lhe U.S. und
SovIeL UnIon were enguged Ior Lhe duruLIon oI Lhe CoId Wur.
7

• The U.S. wIII conLInue Lo huve sIgnIIIcunL poIILIcuI und economIc InLeresLs In
Lhe AsIu-PucIIIc regIon.
• WhIIe Lhe U.S. wIII IIkeIv conLInue Lo reduce Lhe number oI wurheuds und
deIIverv svsLems In ILs nucIeur sLockpIIe, nucIeur weupons wIII remuIn un
ImporLunL eIemenL oI nuLIonuI securILv sLruLegv Ior boLh Lhe U.S. und ChInu.
• Becuuse InLenL Is dIIIIcuIL Lo judge, LhIs sLudv wIII reIv on mIIILurv cupubIIILIes
(und Lhe ucquIsILIon oI) us Lhe prImurv meLrIc oI unuIvsIs.
• The ChInese economv wIII conLInue Lo grow over Lhe nexL Len veurs uL ruLes
hIgh enough Lo supporL conLInued modernIzuLIon.
• ChInu wIII noL enLer InLo unv urms conLroI LreuLIes IImILIng ILs nucIeur
modernIzuLIon.
• There wIII be no gume-chungIng LechnoIogIcuI breukLhroughs In unLI-
submurIne wurIure (ASW).
Approuch und I×ecution
DeLuIIs oI ChInu`s nucIeur weupons cupubIIILIes ure umong BeIjIng`s mosL-guurded
sLuLe secreLs. UnIIke Lhe UnILed SLuLes, ChInu does noL pubIIsh unv subsLunLIve
InIormuLIon on ILs nucIeur docLrIne, Iorces, or ucquIsILIon progrums. ThIs Iuck oI
Lrunspurencv compIIcuLes unuIvsIs. SLIII, Lhere ure u number oI quuIILv sources
uvuIIubIe In Lhe open source IILeruLure. ¡uLures unuIvsIs reIIes on Lhe exLrupoIuLIon
oI Iong-Lerm Lrends whIch ure unuIvzed In Lhe conLexL oI u runge oI pIuusIbIe
scenurIos. To mILIguLe Lhe rIsk oI IuuILv unuIvsIs, Iour uILernuLIve Iorce sLrucLures ure
presenLed: A, B, C, und D-A beIng u conservuLIve, IIneur projecLIon oI currenL
Lrends wILh IuLures B und C posILIng IncreusIngIv robusL und dvnumIc Iorce
sLrucLures. AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure D, Lhe mosL umbILIous IuLure consIdered,
wouId gIve BeIjIng neur-purILv wILh WushIngLon In Lerms oI SSBNs IIeIded und
poLenLIuIIv u mujor udvunLuge In LoLuI wurheuds. The LImeIrume under
consIderuLIon Is Len veurs, or zozo.
Anv dIscussIon oI nucIeur Iorce sLrucLure requIremenLs necessILuLes u IuII
expIoruLIon oI u sLuLe`s grund sLruLegv, LhreuL percepLIons, sLruLegIc cuILure, und
vIews on deLerrence. However, u deep exumInuLIon oI Lhose ImporLunL vurIubIes Is
bevond Lhe scope oI LhIs urLIcIe. ¡nsLeud, LhIs urLIcIe Iocuses on mIIILurv cupubIIILIes
und LheIr perIormunce uLLrIbuLes, specIIIcuIIv Lhe SSBN pIuLIorms und LheIr buIIIsLIc
mIssIIes. OperuLIonuI depIovmenL puLLerns ure uIso dIscussed.

7
See, Ior exumpIe, John MeursheImer, ¨The RIse oI ChInu WIII NoL Be PeuceIuI uL AII,¨ The
Austrclicn, November 18, zoo=, uvuIIubIe uL
<hLLp:JJmeursheImer.uchIcugo.eduJpdIsJPoo1q.pdI>; und Auron ¡. ¡rIedberg. ¨The ¡uLure
oI U.S.-ChInu ReIuLIons: ¡s ConIIIcL ¡nevILubIe?¨ Internctioncl Securitu ·o, no. z (¡uII zoo=):
;-q=. ¡or more on Lhe U.S.-SovIeL compeLILIon, see Thomus M. Skvpek, ¨EvuIuuLIng MIIILurv
BuIunces Through Lhe ¡ens oI NeL AssessmenL,¨ 1ourncl oI Militcru cnd Strcteqic Studies,
VoI. 1z, ¡ssue z, WInLer zo1o, uvuIIubIe uL
<www.jmss.orgJjmssJIndex.phpJjmssJurLIcIeJdownIoudJz¤;J·z>



ϭϬϴ
ThIs urLIcIe Is execuLed In severuI purLs. ¡IrsL, un overvIew oI Lhe P¡AN`s
currenL SSBN Iorce sLrucLure und S¡BM progrum Is provIded. Second, uILer
provIdIng u buseIIne Iorce sLrucLure In zo1o, Iour uILernuLIve Iorce sLrucLures ure
presenLed uIong wILh ussocIuLed cosLs, beneIILs, und poLenLIuI depIovmenL puLLerns.
ThIrd, concIudIng LhoughLs ure oIIered on whIch Iorce sLrucLure ChInu muv IIkeIv
udopL und whv.
Chinu`s Lnderseu Ðeterrent Cupubilities in ±o1o
The seu Ieg oI ChInu`s currenL nucIeur Iorce sLrucLure consIsLs oI one Tvpe o¤z Xic-
cIuss SSBN urmed wILh 1z J¡-1 S¡BMs home porLed uL QIngduo und Lwo-Lhree 1in-
cIuss SSBNs wILh euch bouL currvIng 1z J¡-z S¡BMs. However, IL Is wIdeIv ussumed
LhuL Lhe Xic-cIuss submurIne Is noL operuLIonuI und reporLedIv never conducLed u
sIngIe deLerrenL puLroI.
8
J
9
WhIIe Lhe IIrsL Lwo 1in-cIuss bouLs were expecLed Lo enLer
operuLIonuI servIce bv zoo¤, IL Is uncIeur wheLher or noL Lhe J¡-z hus been
successIuIIv IIred Irom Lhe P¡AN`s newesL SSBN. The DepurLmenL oI DeIense`s
zoo¤ Annucl Report to Conqress on the Militcru Pouer oI the People's Republic oI
Chinc suggesLed LhuL Lhe 1in-cIuss bouLs wouId be operuLIonuI bv zo1o.
10
As oI LhIs
wrILIng In AugusL zo1o, Lhere Is no evIdence uvuIIubIe In Lhe open source IILeruLure
suggesLIng LhuL Lhe 1in-cIuss SSBNs und LheIr J¡-z S¡BMs ure IuIIv operuLIonuI. BuL
Lhe P¡AN`s currenL LrujecLorv suggesLs LhuL ChInu Is on Lhe cusp oI u sIgnIIIcunL Ieup
In cupubIIILv und wIII soon IIeId un operuLIonuI cupubIIILv, gIvIng BeIjIng ILs IIrsL
credIbIe seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL.
The JIn-clcss SSßN
AccordIng Lo vurIous sources, BeIjIng pIuns Lo buIId Iour Lo sIx 1in-cIuss bouLs bv
zo1=.
11
,
12
The desIgn oI Lhe 1in-cIuss SSBN Is bused on Lhe Tvpe o¤· Shcnq-cIuss
nucIeur-powered uLLuck submurIne (SSN). The Shcnq-cIuss bouLs were bused upon
Lhe SovIeL-eru Victor III SSN.
13
The 1in-cIuss bouLs ure u IoIIow-on Lo ChInu's IIrsL
generuLIon Xic-cIuss progrum whIch wus Iuunched In Lhe eurIv 1¤8os buL wus never
un operuLIonuI success. ¡L Is more Lhun IIkeIv, however, LhuL Lhe P¡AN Ieurned

8
Andrew S. ErIckson und MIchueI S. Chuse, ¨ChInu`s SSBN ¡orces: TrunsILIonIng Lo Lhe NexL
GeneruLIon,¨ Chinc ßrieI, VoI. ¤, ¡ssue 1z, June 1z, zoo¤, uvuIIubIe uL <
hLLp:JJwww.jumesLown.orgJsIngIeJ?no_cuche=1&Lx_LLnews|LL_news|=·=1zo>
9
Huns M. KrIsLensen, RoberL S. NorrIs, und MuLLhew G. McKInzIe, Chinese Nuclecr Iorces
cnd U.S. Nuclecr Wcr Plcnninq (WushIngLon, DC: ¡ederuLIon oI AmerIcun
ScIenLIsLsJNuLuruI Resources DeIense CouncII, November zoo6), p. 8¤.
10
U.S. DepurLmenL oI DeIense, Annucl Report to Conqress on the Militcru Pouer oI the
People's Republic oI Chinc zooo, p. zq.
11
1cne's Underucter WcrIcre Sustems, ¨UnderwuLer Weupons - SLruLegIc und cruIse
mIssIIes, ChInu,¨ June`s ¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., JuIv ;, zo1o, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse, uccessed
June ¤, zo1o).
12
U.S. Nuvv, OIIIce oI NuvuI ¡nLeIIIgence, ¨Seupower QuesLIons on Lhe ChInese SubmurIne
¡orce,¨ December zo, zoo6, p. 1, uvuIIubIe uL <
hLLp:JJwww.Ius.orgJnukeJguIdeJchInuJON¡zoo6.pdI> (uccess June ¤, zo1o)
13
1cne's Underucter WcrIcre Sustems, ¨UnderwuLer Weupons - SLruLegIc und cruIse
mIssIIes, ChInu,¨ June`s ¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., JuIv ;, zo1o, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse, uccessed
June ¤, zo1o).


ϭϬϵ
sIgnIIIcunL Iessons Irom Lhe IuIIures oI Lhe Xic progrum und hus IncorporuLed Lhose
Iessons InLo subsequenL nucIeur-powered bouLs.
ConsLrucLIon on Lhe IIrsL 1in-cIuss bouL begun In zoo1; IL wus Iuunched In
JuIv zooq und commIssIoned In Murch zoo;.
14
AccordIng Lo 1cne's Underucter
WcrIcre Sustems, Iour bouLs huve been IuId down. ¡L Is beIIeved LhuL Lhe second
1in-cIuss bouL enLered seu LrIuIs In zoo8 und wus commIssIoned In zoo¤. The
remuInIng bouLs wIII be commIssIoned In Lwo veur-InLervuIs.
15
The ubsence oI u
successIuI LesL IIrIng oI u J¡-z S¡BM Irom one oI Lhe Lwo 1in-cIuss bouLs suggesLs
LhuL IL hus noL been operuLIonuIIv depIoved.
Chinu`s SSBN Ileet in ±o1o
16

Type Lnits Commissioned Buse
SSBNs
Xic-cIuss (Tvpe o¤z) 1 1¤8; QIngduo
1in-cIuss (Tvpe o¤q) z zoo; Sunvu
Iiqure :
WhIIe Lhe P¡AN Is cIose Lo depIovIng u credIbIe seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL Ior Lhe
IIrsL LIme In ILs hIsLorv, Lhe 1in-cIuss pIuLIorm Is noL wILhouL perIormunce
deIIcIencIes und operuLIonuI chuIIenges. ¡L hus been reporLed LhuL Lhe P¡AN hus hud
Issues wILh Lhe nucIeur propuIsIon svsLems In ILs nucIeur-powered submurInes.
AccordIng Lo SLruLegIc ¡orecusLIng (STRAT¡OR), u prIvuLe InLeIIIgence compunv, Lhe
P¡AN`s nucIeur-powered submurInes ¨huve veL Lo uLLuIn modern sLundurds oI
perIormunce.¨
17
¡urLher evIdence oI LhIs Is ChInu`s IurgeIv unsuccessIuI Xic-cIuss
bouL, whIch wus cupubIe oI mIssIIe Iuunches buL never conducLed un oIIIcIuI
deLerrence puLroI. One reporL cIuIms LhuL Lhe Tvpe o¤q, IIke ILs predecessor, Is noL
up Lo ¨modern SSBN sLundurds, und Lhere ure rumors oI nucIeur propuIsIon
probIems.¨
18
WhuL Is more, u zoo¤ reporL Irom Lhe U.S. Nuvv`s OIIIce oI NuvuI
¡nLeIIIgence IndIcuLes LhuL Lhe Tvpe o¤q Is Iouder Lhun Lhe RussIun Deltc III-cIuss

14
1cne's Underucter WcrIcre Sustems, ¨SubmurInes - SubmurIne und submersIbIe
desIgns, ChInu,¨ June`s ¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., Muv zo, zoo¤, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse,
uccessed JuIv ·, zo1o).
15
¡bId.
16
The sources Ior LhIs LubIe IncIude Lhe U.S. Nuvv, OIIIce oI NuvuI ¡nLeIIIgence, The People's
Liberction Armu Nctu: A Modern Nctu uith Chinese Chcrccteristics, AugusL zoo¤;
16
U.S.
DepurLmenL oI DeIense, Annucl Report to Conqress on the Militcru Pouer oI the People's
Republic oI Chinc zooo, 1cne's Underucter WcrIcre Sustems, 1cne's Iiqhtinq Ships, 1cne's
Strcteqic Wecpons Sustems, und 1cne's Intelliqence Retieu.
17
STRAT¡OR Toduv, ¨BuIIIsLIc MIssIIe SubmurInes: The OnIv Wuv Lo Go,¨ AprII zq, zoo;,
uvuIIubIe uL < hLLp:JJwww.sLruLIor.comJbuIIIsLIc_mIssIIe_submurInes_onIv_wuv_go>,
(uccessed June 1q, zo1o)
18
¡bId.


ϭϭϬ
submurIne deveIoped In Lhe 1¤;os.
19
ThIs meuns LhuL Lhe new Tvpe o¤q bouLs ure
more deLecLubIe Lhun RussIun LechnoIogv neurIv IorLv veurs oId.
NuvuI sLruLegIsLs ¡vIe GoIdsLeIn und Shunnon KnIghL beIIeve LhuL Lhe
probIems wILh ChInu`s IuLesL SSN und SSBN ure sIgnIIIcunL und wIII IImIL producLIon
oI Lhe P¡AN`s IuLesL nucIeur-powered bouLs:
WhuL Is especIuIIv InLeresLIng Is LhuL ChInu hus noL moved uggressIveIv Lo
buIId much bevond Lhe Lwo InILIuI pIuLIorms oI eILher Lhe Tvpe-o¤· SSN or
Lhe new Tvpe-o¤q SSBN. The obvIous expIunuLIon Is LhuL Lhese vesseIs`
growIng puIns ure sIgnIIIcunL.Whereus Lhe IuLesL ChInese dIeseI submurInes
ruLe us reIuLIveIv quIeL, Lhe ucousLIc sIgnuLures oI Lhe new ChInese nucIeur
submurInes were esLImuLed Lo be weII behInd Lhe mosL udvunced AmerIcun
und RussIun vesseIs und Lhus ure quILe vuInerubIe Lo deLecLIon. ChInu's nuvuI
sLruLegIsLs ure noL nuIve und do noL beIIeve ILs submurIne IIeeL wIII cIose Lhe
gup In Lhe neur- or even Lhe mId-Lerm.
20

The uuLhors` conLenLIon LhuL ChInu wIII be unubIe Lo ¨cIose Lhe gup In Lhe neur- or
even Lhe mId-Lerm¨ Is compeIIIng. The ubsence oI pubIIcIzed J¡-z LesL IIrIngs Irom
Lhe Tvpe o¤q pIuLIorm or purLIcIpuLIon In hIgh-proIIIe demonsLruLIons or mIIILurv
exercIses IndIcuLes LhuL Lhe new SSBN und ILs uccompunvIng mIssIIe ure noL veL
operuLIonuIIv depIoved. ¡urLher, even II Lhe svsLems were operuLIonuI, Lhe P¡AN`s
new svsLems ure quuIILuLIveIv InIerIor Lo exIsLIng SSBN pIuLIorms, IncIudIng Lhe U.S.
Nuvv`s Dhio-cIuss SSBN. The U.S. Nuvv currenLIv enjovs quunLILuLIve superIorILv
over Lhe P¡AN us weII; IL hus u IIeeL oI 1q Dhio-cIuss SSBNs.
BuL Is IL conceIvubIe LhuL Lhe P¡AN couId drumuLIcuIIv cIose Lhe gup bv
zozo? ¡L Is IIkeIv LhuL Lhe P¡AN Ieurned consIderubIe Iessons Irom ILs IuIIed Xic-
cIuss progrum und hus IncorporuLed Lhose Iessons Ieurned InLo Lhe deveIopmenL oI
Lhe Tvpe o¤q. Perhups Lhe Tvpe o¤q Is veL unoLher (uIbeIL cosLIv) LesL bed und Lhe
P¡AN Is IookIng uL Lhe nuscenL Tvpe o¤6 pIuLIorm Lo Iorm Lhe buckbone oI BeIjIng`s
seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL.
There ure reporLs LhuL desIgn oI Lhe Tvpe o¤6 Tcnq-cIuss bouL hus uIreudv
commenced. AccordIng Lo one reporL, Imuges oI un unknown SSBN mockup wILh zq
mIssIIe Lubes were uIred on ChInu CenLruI TeIevIsIon In zoo8.
21
J
22
¡n eurIv zo1o,
VIjuv Sukhuju, Lhe DIrecLor oI Reseurch uL Lhe ¡ndIun CouncII oI WorId AIIuIrs und u
Iormer ¡ndIun nuvuI oIIIcer, wroLe wILh conIIdence: ¨ChInu Is enguged In Lhe

19
U.S. Nuvv, OIIIce oI NuvuI ¡nLeIIIgence, The People's Liberction Armu Nctu: A Modern
Nctu uith Chinese Chcrccteristics, AugusL zoo¤, p. zz.
20
¡vIe GoIdsLeIn und Shunnon KnIghL, ¨ComIng wILhouL Shudows, ¡euvIng wILhouL
¡ooLprInLs,¨ Proceedinqs, U.S. NuvuI ¡nsLILuLe, AprII zo1o, VoI. 1·6 ¡ssue q, pp. ·o-·=.
21
AndreI Chung, ¨ChInu's nucIeur wurheud sLockpIIe rIsIng,¨ United Press Internctioncl
Asic, AprII =, zoo8, uvuIIubIe uL <
hLLp:JJwww.upIusIu.comJSecurILvJzoo8JoqJo=JchInus_nucIeur_wurheud_sLockpIIe_rIsIngJ
;o;qJ>
22
GIobuI SecurILv NewswIre, ¨SuLeIIILe ¡muges ProvIde ¡nsIghL ¡nLo ChInese BuIIIsLIc MIssIIe
SubmurIne CupubIIILIes,¨ NucIeur ThreuL ¡nILIuLIve, Murch ·, zoo8, uvuIIubIe uL <
hLLp:JJw.gIobuIsecurILvnewswIre.orgJgsnJGSN_zoo8o·o·_o=A;¡8B=.php>


ϭϭϭ
deveIopmenL oI Lhe nexL-generuLIon Tvpe o¤6 submurIne, supposedIv sImIIur Lo Lhe
o¤q 1in-cIuss modeIs, whIch muv possess cupubIIILIes Lo Iuunch mIssIIe Irom under
Lhe |ArcLIc| Ice cup.¨
23

¡n JuIv zoo¤, one ChInese bIogger wILh u currenL or Iormer uIIIIIuLIon wILh
Lhe P¡AN descrIbed Lhe desIgn specIIIcuLIons oI Lhe Tvpe o¤6 und specuIuLed LhuL
Lhe new pIuLIorm wIII IncIude ¨noIse reducLIon devIces¨ mukIng IL quIeLer Lhun Lhe
Tvpe o¤q 1in-cIuss SSBN.
24
AILhough Lhe verucILv oI LhIs purLIcuIur source Is
dIIIIcuIL Lo uscerLuIn, when consIdered In conjuncLIon wILh oLher sources, IL cerLuInIv
suggesLs LhuL desIgn concepLs Ior Lhe Tvpe o¤6 ure beIng expIored.
25

The 1L-z SLßM
The 1in-cIuss bouLs wIII currv Lhe J¡-z S¡BM, whIch Is u Lhree-sLuge, soIId propeIIunL
mIssIIe,
26
und hus un esLImuLed runge In excess oI ;,zoo km, uccordIng Lo Lhe
DepurLmenL oI DeIense.
27
The J¡-z S¡BM hus u Iur greuLer runge Lhun ILs
predecessor, Lhe J¡-I S¡BM und, uccordIng Lo Lhe OIIIce oI NuvuI ¡nLeIIIgence, ¨Is
cupubIe oI reuchIng Lhe conLInenLuI UnILed SLuLes Irom ChInese IILLoruIs.¨
28
The J¡-z
Is uIso much more uccuruLe Lhun Lhe J¡-1 wILh u cIrcuIur error probubIe (CEP) oI
·oom compured wILh ;oom Ior ILs predecessor.
Runge, uIong wILh uccurucv, Is one oI Lhe mosL ImporLunL perIormunce
uLLrIbuLes oI u buIIIsLIc mIssIIe und runge esLImuLes Ior Lhe J¡-z vurv. An unuIvsIs
conducLed bv RonuId O`Rourke oI Lhe CongressIonuI Reseurch ServIce concIuded
LhuL Lhe J¡-z couId sLrIke
LurgeLs In AIusku (excepL Lhe AIuskun punhundIe) Irom proLecLed busLIons
cIose Lo ChInu; LurgeLs In HuwuII (us weII us LurgeLs In AIusku, excepL Lhe
AIuskun punhundIe) Irom IocuLIons souLh oI Jupun; LurgeLs In Lhe wesLern
huII oI Lhe q8 conLIguous sLuLes (us weII us HuwuII und AIusku) Irom mId-
oceun IocuLIons wesL oI HuwuII; und LurgeLs In uII =o sLuLes Irom mId-oceun
IocuLIons eusL oI HuwuII.
29


23
VIjuv Sukhuju, ¨¡ssue BrIeI: ChInu BreukIng InLo Lhe ArcLIc ¡ce,¨ ¡ndIun CouncII oI WorId
AIIuIrs, New DeIhI, AprII ¤, zo1o, 6.
24
Mu JIunbIn, ¨¡uLesL o¤6 ChInese Nuvv, 'Tung` cIuss submurIne perIormunce In excess oI
U.S. submurIne,¨ TrunsIuLed bv GoogIe TrunsIuLe, ChInese Comrudes NeLwork, JuIv ;, zoo¤,
uvuIIubIe uL <hLLp:JJwww.chInuzhunvou.neLJspuce-·;;-do-bIog-Id-¤1·.hLmI>
25
GIven Lhe uuLhorILurIun nuLure oI Lhe regIme In BeIjIng, und LheIr propensILv Ior
censorshIp, IL Is pecuIIur LhuL LhIs seemIngIv sensILIve InIormuLIon wouId end up on u bIog. ¡L
Is enLIreIv possIbIe LhuL such InIormuLIon Is purL oI u dIsInIormuLIon cumpuIgn.
26
1cne's Strcteqic Wecpons Sustems, ¨OIIensIve weupons-ChInu, J¡-z (CSS-NX-=),¨ June`s
¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., June 1, zo1o, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse, uccessed JuIv ·, zo1o).
27
U.S. DepurLmenL oI DeIense, Annucl Report to Conqress on the Militcru Pouer oI the
People's Republic oI Chinc zooo, p. 66.
28
U.S. Nuvv, OIIIce oI NuvuI ¡nLeIIIgence, The People's Liberction Armu Nctu: A Modern
Nctu uith Chinese Chcrccteristics, AugusL zoo¤, p. z·.
29
RonuId O`Rourke, ¨ChInu NuvuI ModernIzuLIon: ¡mpIIcuLIons Ior U.S. Nuvv CupubIIILIes-
Buckground und
¡ssues Ior Congress,¨ CongressIonuI Reseurch ServIce, June 1o, zo1o, p. 1z.


ϭϭϮ
AnoLher reporL puLs Lhe runge uL 1z,oookm.
30
WhIIe Lhere Is u sIgnIIIcunL dIspurILv
In runge esLImuLes Ior Lhe J¡-z (unvwhere Irom ;,zookm Lo 1z,oookm), euch
esLImuLe, even Lhe mosL conservuLIve projecLIon, murks u sIgnIIIcunL Increuse In
runge over LhuL oI ILs predecessor, Lhe J¡-1.
Iiqure z
The J¡-z hus undergone severuI LesL IIrIngs Irom u modIIIed, SovIeL-eru Tvpe o·1
GolI-cIuss dIeseI-eIecLrIc buIIIsLIc mIssIIe submurIne (SSB).
32
¡L hus been reporLed
LhuL J¡-z wus expecLed Lo enLer servIce In zoo8, neurIv u decude uILer ILs Iund-bused
equIvuIenL, Lhe D¡-·1, enLered servIce. There ure reporLs oI successIuI LesL IIrIngs oI
Lhe J¡-z In zooz, zoo·, zooq, zoo=, und zoo8.
33
One reporL suggesLed LhuL durIng
Lhe zoo8 LesL, u J¡-z wus successIuIIv Iuunched Irom u Tvpe o¤q bouL-noL Lhe GolI-
cIuss SSB.
34
However, Lhere ure no corroboruLIng reporLs conIIrmIng LhuL Lhe J¡-z
wus Iuunched Irom Lhe Tvpe o¤q. The ubsence oI u LesL IIrIng Irom Tvpe o¤q bouL
suggesLs LhuL Lhe Lwo svsLems ure noL veL operuLIonuIIv depIoved.


30
1cne's Sentinel Securitu Assessment - Chinc And Northecst Asic, ¨SLruLegIc Weupon
SvsLems, ChInu,¨ June`s ¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., Murch 1z, zo1o, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse,
uccessed June ¤, zo1o).
31
The sources Ior LhIs LubIe IncIude Lhe U.S. Nuvv, OIIIce oI NuvuI ¡nLeIIIgence, The People's
Liberction Armu Nctu: A Modern Nctu uith Chinese Chcrccteristics, AugusL zoo¤;
31
U.S.
DepurLmenL oI DeIense, Annucl Report to Conqress on the Militcru Pouer oI the People's
Republic oI Chinc zooo, 1cne's Underucter WcrIcre Sustems, 1cne's Iiqhtinq Ships, 1cne's
Strcteqic Wecpons Sustems, und 1cne's Intelliqence Retieu.
32
1cne's Underucter WcrIcre Sustems, ¨UnderwuLer Weupons - SLruLegIc und cruIse
mIssIIes, ChInu,¨ June`s ¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., JuIv ;, zo1o, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse, uccessed
June ¤, zo1o).
33
¡bId.
ϯϰ
RIchurd D. ¡Isher, Jr., ¨Red uIerL - ChInu modernIzes ILs nucIeur mIssIIe Iorce,¨ 1cne's
Intelliqence Retieu, June`s ¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., Muv 1q, zoo¤, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse,
uccessed June ¤, zo1o).
Chinu`s SLBM Iorce in ±o1o
31

Type Lnits Ðeployed Runue Puyloud Guidunce Accurucy
SLBMs
J¡-1

1z 1¤86 z,1=okm z=o kT
nucIeur
¡nerLIuI ;oo m
CEP
J¡-z

zq zo1o 8,ooo
km

1 MT nucIeur,
or ·-8 M¡RV
wILh zo, ¤o or
1=okT nucIeur
¡nerLIuI wILh
sLeIIur
upduLes und
GPS
·oo m
CEP


ϭϭϯ
To MIRV or Not to MIRV
A M¡RVed mIssIIe hus Lhe ubIIILv Lo currv muILIpIe nucIeur wurheuds LhuL cun eILher
be deIIvered Lo dIIIerenL LurgeLs or Lhe sume LurgeL uL InLervuIs. WesLern unuIvsLs
RoberL S. NorrIs und Huns M. KrIsLensen InsIsL LhuL ChInu hus Lhe ¨LechnIcuI
cupubIIILv Lo deveIop muILIpIe reenLrv vehIcIes (MRVs) und muILIpIe IndependenLIv
LurgeLubIe reenLrv vehIcIes (M¡RVs) buL hus chosen noL Lo depIov such svsLems on ILs
mIssIIes.¨
·=
OLher esLImuLes, however, suggesL LhuL Lhe J¡-z Is M¡RVed und cun
currv beLween ·-8 wurheuds wILh u zo, ¤o, or 1=o kIIoLon (kT) vIeId.
·6
RIchurd D.
¡Isher, wrILIng In 1cne's Intelliqence Retieu, wroLe, ¨¡L |Lhe J¡-z| Is uppurenLIv u
Lwo- or Lhree-sLuge mIssIIe wILh u bIunL nose, whIch wouId be consIsLenL wILh u
muILIpIe wurheud conIIguruLIon.¨
·;

The M¡RVed J¡-z wIII enhunce Lhe overuII credIbIIILv oI Lhe ChInese nucIeur
deLerrenL bv provIdIng Increused IeLhuIILv und peneLruLIon uguInsL un udversurv`s
buIIIsLIc mIssIIe deIense svsLems. A 1in-cIuss SSBN currvIng 1z M¡RVed J¡-z
S¡BMs couId currv unvwhere Irom 1z Lo ¤6 wurheuds, dependIng on how munv
wurheuds ure depIoved on euch mIssIIe. AccordIng Lo Lhe DepurLmenL oI DeIense,
ChInu Is uIso reseurchIng decovs, chuII, jummIng, und LhermuI shIeIdIng.
·8

Iour Alternutive Iutures
ThIs secLIon posILs Iour uILernuLIve IuLures Ior ChInu`s SSBN IIeeL In Lhe zozo
LImeIrume. ¡uLures A - D represenL IncreusIngIv umbILIous Iorce sLrucLures In
Lerms oI quuIILv, quunLILv, cosL, us weII us Lhe supporLIng InIrusLrucLure und
personneI requIred Lo buIId und muInLuIn Lhe posILed IIeeLs. ¡ong-Lerm
prognosLIcuLIons ure dIIIIcuIL Ior u vurIeLv oI reusons IncIudIng Lhe dvnumIcILv oI
InLernuLIonuI poIILIcs. To combuL LhIs unuIvLIcuI chuIIenge, Iour subsLunLIveIv
dIIIerenL Iorce sLrucLures ure presenLed und unuIvzed In Lhe conLexL oI sIx crILerIu:
OperuLIonuI CupubIIILv, ConcepLs oI OperuLIon, Commund und ConLroI, DeIense
SpendIng, ShIpbuIIdIng CupucILv, und PersonneIJTruInIng.
The gouI oI LhIs secLIon Is Lo sLImuIuLe LhInkIng umong deIense unuIvsLs und
poIIcvmukers ubouL Lhe IuLure oI ChInu`s seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL-Lo consIder u
runge oI ¨whuL-II¨ scenurIos. WhIIe Lhe DepurLmenL oI DeIense hus more pressIng
prIorILIes und commILmenLs In zo1o (numeIv OperuLIons ¡ruqI ¡reedom und
EndurIng ¡reedom), IL Is ImporLunL Lo dIugnose poLenLIuI sLruLegIc chuIIenges In
LheIr InIuncv beIore Lhev IuIIv emerge. DoIng so oIIers poIIcvmukers greuLer IuLILude
In respondIng Lo Lhe LhreuL. DeIense unuIvsLs couId Ieveruge Lhese IuLures Ior

35
RoberL S. NorrIs & Huns M. KrIsLensen, ¨NucIeur NoLebook: ChInese nucIeur Iorces,
zoo8,¨ BuIIeLIn oI Lhe ALomIc ScIenLIsLs, VoI. 6q, No. ·, p. qq.
36
1cne's Underucter WcrIcre Sustems, ¨UnderwuLer Weupons - SLruLegIc und cruIse
mIssIIes, ChInu,¨ June`s ¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., JuIv ;, zo1o, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse, uccessed
June ¤, zo1o).
37
RIchurd D. ¡Isher, Jr., ¨Red uIerL - ChInu modernIzes ILs nucIeur mIssIIe Iorce,¨ 1cne's
Intelliqence Retieu, June`s ¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., Muv 1q, zoo¤, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse,
uccessed June ¤, zo1o).
38
U.S. DepurLmenL oI DeIense, Annucl Report to Conqress on the Militcru Pouer oI the
People's Republic oI Chinc zooo, p. zq.


ϭϭϰ
wurgumes or exercIses exumInIng Lhe IuLure oI ChInu`s nucIeur Iorces. CurrenL
Lrends suggesL LhuL WushIngLon wIII soon be Iorced Lo operuLe In u sLruLegIc
envIronmenL In whIch ChInu possesses u credIbIe seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL.
Alternctite Iorce Structure A in zozo
• q Tvpe o¤q bouLs wILh 1z J¡-z S¡BMs (M¡RV) per bouL
Operutionul Cupubility. AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure A Is bused IurgeIv on u
IIneur projecLIon oI recenL ChInese ucquIsILIon Lrends und represenLs convenLIonuI
WesLern LhInkIng. MuILIpIe sources concIude LhuL ChInu wIII buIId Iour Lo sIx Tvpe
o¤q 1in-cIuss bouLs bv zo1=.
·¤
J
qo
ThIs uILernuLIve IuLure ussumes LhuL ChInu wIII
buIId jusL Iour Tvpe o¤q bouLs. A sIngIe 1in-cIuss SSBN currvIng 1z M¡RVed J¡-z
S¡BMs couId currv unvwhere Irom 1z Lo ¤6 wurheuds, dependIng on how munv
wurheuds ure depIoved on euch mIssIIe.
q1
ThIs meuns LhuL ChInu couId currv up Lo
·8q wurheuds on ILs IIeeL oI Iour SSBNs. ¡our operuLIonuI Tvpe o¤q bouLs wouId
provIde ChInu wILh u credIbIe, conLInuous seu-bused deLerrenL cupubIIILv.
Concepts oI Operution. ChInu`s nucIeur concepL oI operuLIons wIII be shuped bv
ILs LhreuL percepLIons (e.g. who IL wIshes Lo deLer), ILs ussessmenL oI how Lo deLer
suId sLuLes (e.g., counLervuIue versus counLerIorce LurgeLIng), und ILs operuLIonuI
cupubIIILIes. Becuuse Lhe Tvpe o¤q bouLs ure reIuLIveIv Ioud und wouId Lhus be eusIIv
deLecLubIe Lo unLI-submurIne Iorces oI Lhe UnILed SLuLes or Jupun, LhIs Iorce
sLrucLure wouId mosL IIkeIv uccompunv u busLIon depIovmenL sLruLegv where Lhe
SSBNs puLroI u heuvIIv deIended bodv oI wuLer such us Lhe BohuI, YeIIow, or SouLh
ChInu Seus; under u busLIon sLruLegv, Lhe SSBNs wouId be proLecLed bv ChInu`s Iund-
bused uIrpower und surIuce shIps.
A busLIon depIovmenL puLLern In Lhe BohuI Seu wILh q Tvpe o¤q bouLs urmed
wILh J¡-zs wouId enubIe ChInu Lo LurgeL credIbIv U.S. mIIILurv Iorces depIoved In Lhe
AsIu-PucIIIc LheuLer IncIudIng personneI depIoved In Lhe Jupunese ¡sIunds und SouLh
Koreu us weII us Lhe nuvuI buse uL Guum und Lhe uIr buse uL DIego GurcIu In Lhe
¡ndIun Oceun. ¡I Lhe ChInese IeudershIp seIecLs u deLerrence sLruLegv predIcuLed on
credIbIv LhreuLenIng U.S. Iorces In LheuLer, Lhen LhIs Iorce sLrucLure, coupIed wILh u
busLIon depIovmenL sLruLegv, wouId uchIeve LhuL objecLIve.
Under LhIs depIovmenL puLLern, however, Lhe Tvpe o¤q bouLs wouId onIv be
ubIe Lo sLrIke cerLuIn U.S. LurgeLs such us HuwuII, AIusku, und poLenLIuIIv Lhe WesL
CousL oI Lhe conLInenLuI UnILed SLuLes. ConIInIng Lhe SSBNs Lo u smuII geogruphIcuI
ureu wouId meun LhuL one oI LheIr greuLesL uLLrIbuLes wouId go unLupped: Lhe
unIImILed runge provIded bv nucIeur propuIsIon. ¡I Lhe ChInese IeudershIp wIshes Lo

ϯϵ
1cne's Underucter WcrIcre Sustems, ¨UnderwuLer Weupons - SLruLegIc und cruIse
mIssIIes, ChInu,¨ June`s ¡nIormuLIon Group ¡Ld., JuIv ;, zo1o, (EIecLronIc DuLubuse, uccessed
June ¤, zo1o).
ϰϬ
U.S. Nuvv, OIIIce oI NuvuI ¡nLeIIIgence, ¨Seupower QuesLIons on Lhe ChInese SubmurIne
¡orce,¨ December zo, zoo6, p. 1, uvuIIubIe uL <
hLLp:JJwww.Ius.orgJnukeJguIdeJchInuJON¡zoo6.pdI> (uccess June ¤, zo1o)
41
ThIs ussumes LhuL Lhe J¡-z Is M¡RVed und cun currv 1-8 wurheuds per mIssIIe. The Tvpe
o¤q hus 1z S¡BM Iuunch Lubes.


ϭϭϱ
hoId uddILIonuI U.S. LurgeLs uL rIsk (bevond U.S. Iorces In LheuLer), purLIcuIurIv Lhose
In Lhe conLInenLuI UnILed SLuLes, Lhen Lhe P¡AN wIII be Iorced Lo move bevond u
busLIon sLruLegv.
GoIng ouL In Lhe open seus, ouLsIde oI Lhe cover oI ChInu`s Iund-bused
uIrpower und surIuce shIps, couId enubIe ChInu Lo puLroI In Lhe PucIIIc Oceun und
hoId LurgeLs In Lhe conLInenLuI UnILed SLuLes uL rIsk. However, wILhouL Lhe
proLecLIve cover oI ChInese uIr und nuvuI power, Lhe Tvpe o¤q bouLs wouId run Lhe
rIsk oI beIng deLecLed und desLroved bv U.S. ASW Iorces. UILImuLeIv, Lhe
depIovmenL sLruLegv Ior ChInu`s SSBNs wIII depend IurgeIv on Lhe sLruLegIc und
operuLIonuI preIerences oI Lhe poIILIcuI IeudershIp In BeIjIng. AccordIng Lo ToshI
YoshIhuru und Jumes R. HoImes, durIng Lhe CoId Wur, U.S., BrILIsh, und ¡rench
SSBNs hud:
.consIderubIe IuLILude Lo cruIse IndependenLIv wILhIn runge oI SovIeL
LurgeLs. Bv compurIson, uuLhorILurIun regImes, whIch pIuce greuL weIghL on
poIILIcuI IovuILv, ure III dIsposed Lo permIL nuvuI oIIIcers LhIs degree oI conLroI
over sLruLegIc usseLs. As becume uppurenL In Lhe 1¤;os und 1¤8os, SovIeL
Ieuders preIerred Lo keep submurInes cIoser Lo home, under LheIr wuLchIuI
guze. WheLher ChInese Ieuders wIII IncIIne Lo one oI Lhese upprouches or
IushIon LheIr own remuIns Lo be seen.
qz

¡L remuIns uncIeur wheLher Lhe uuLhorILurIun regIme In BeIjIng wIII udopL u
deIensIve, busLIon depIovmenL sLruLegv or u more oIIensIve, open oceun depIovmenL
sLruLegv where Lhe SSBNs operuLe us ¨sIngIe sLeuILhv combuLunLs,¨ sImIIur Lo Lhe
U.S. Nuvv`s Dhio-cIuss SSBNs.

ChInu`s zoo8 DeIense WhILe Puper reuIIIrms u
deIensIve, mInImuIIsL upprouch Lo nucIeur deLerrence, buL oIIers no InsIghLs on
poLenLIuI depIovmenL puLLerns Ior ILs ¨nucIeur-powered sLruLegIc mIssIIe
submurInes.¨
qq
WesLern unuIvsLs shouId noL ussume LhuL BeIjIng wIII udopL u
depIovmenL sLruLegv sImIIur Lo LhuL oI Lhe U.S. Nuvv, Lhe Iormer SovIeL Nuvv, or
RussIun Nuvv. ¡L Is quILe possIbIe LhuL ChInu wIII deveIop new concepLs Ior
depIovIng ILs SSBNs consIsLenL wILh ILs grund sLruLegv und sLruLegIc cuILure.
Commund und Control. OperuLIng muILIpIe Tvpe o¤q pIuLIorms wIII pose
unprecedenLed commund und conLroI chuIIenges Ior Lhe P¡AN und Lhe poIILIcuI
IeudershIp In BeIjIng surroundIng nucIeur weupons reIeuse und depIovmenL
uuLhorILIes.
q=
AccordIng Lo Lhe DepurLmenL oI DeIense, Lhe P¡AN`s cupucILv Lo
communIcuLe wILh submurInes uL seu Is IImILed und BeIjIng hus no operuLIonuI

42
ToshI YoshIhuru und Jumes R. HoImes, ¨ChInu`s New Underseu NucIeur DeLerrenL:
SLruLegv, DocLrIne, und CupubIIILIes,¨ 1oint Iorces Ducrterlu, ¡ssue =o, ·
rd
QuurLer zoo8
(NuLIonuI DeIense UnIversILv Press: WushIngLon, DC), p. ··.
43
RIchurd ¡Isher, Jr., ¨DeveIopIng US-ChInese NucIeur NuvuI CompeLILIon ¡n AsIu, Junuurv
16, zoo=, ¡nLernuLIonuI AssessmenL und SLruLegv CenLer, uvuIIubIe uL
<hLLp:JJwww.sLruLegvcenLer.neLJreseurchJpub¡D.6oJpub_deLuII.usp>
44
¡nIormuLIon OIIIce oI Lhe SLuLe CouncII oI Lhe PeopIe's RepubIIc oI ChInu, Chinc's Nctioncl
DeIense in zoo8, Junuurv zoo¤, p. ¤.
45
U.S. DepurLmenL oI DeIense, Annucl Report to Conqress on the Militcru Pouer oI the
People's Republic oI Chinc zooo, p. zq.


ϭϭϲ
experIence munugIng u IIeeL oI SSBNs conducLIng sLruLegIc deLerrenL puLroIs.
q6
WILh
u IIeeL oI Iour Tvpe o¤q bouLs, Lhe P¡AN shouId be ubIe Lo overcome ILs commund
und conLroI chuIIenges bv zozo.
ÐeIense Spendinu. The urgumenL cun be mude LhuL Lhe Tvpe o¤q Is u pecuIIur
choIce Lo Iorm Lhe buckbone oI Lhe ChInese seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL consIderIng
LhuL IL Is Iouder Lhun Lhe RussIun Deltc III-cIuss und Is Lhus more deLecLubIe Lhun u
pIuLIorm LhuL Is neurIv IorLv veurs oId. SSBNs ure buIIL uL consIderubIe cosL und
requIre sIgnIIIcunL resources. Whv wouId ChInu InvesL such sIgnIIIcunL resources
InLo deveIopIng u credIbIe underseu deLerrenL und second-sLrIke cupubIIILv LhuL
couId eusIIv be deLecLed bv Lhe U.S. Nuvv? One uILernuLIve expIunuLIon Is LhuL Lhe
ChInese IeudershIp onIv wIshes Lo hoId U.S. Iorces In LheuLer uL rIsk wILh ILs seu-
bused deLerrenL, In whIch cuse AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure A, operuLIng In u busLIon
depIovmenL puLLern, wouId be suIIIcIenL. The urgumenL LhuL Lhe Tvpe o¤q Is u LesL
bed Ior u more LechnoIogIcuIIv muLure pIuLIorm Is compeIIIng.
ChInu`s Iuck oI Lrunspurencv mukes Lhe Lusk oI uccuruLeIv ussessIng ILs
deIense expendILures dIIIIcuIL. ChInu`s oIIIcIuI deIense budgeL Increused ;.=% Lo
$;;.¤= bIIIIon USD In zo1o up Irom $;o.q bIIIIon USD In zoo¤.
q;
¡n zoo8, ChInu`s
oIIIcIuI deIense budgeL wus upproxImuLeIv $6o bIIIIon.
q8
However, Lhe DepurLmenL
oI DeIense esLImuLed LhuL ChInu`s LoLuI deIense-reIuLed expendILures Ior zoo8 were
beLween $1o= bIIIIon USD und $1=o bIIIIon USD.

AddILIonuIIv, Lhe P¡AN does noL
pubIIsh Lhe ucquIsILIon cosLs ussocIuLed wILh ILs Tvpe o¤q pIuLIorms. ThIs mukes Lhe
unuIvsIs oI SSBN deveIopmenL In Lhe conLexL oI Lhe brouder ChInese mIIILurv budgeL
u chuIIengIng Lusk.
SSBNs ure cosLIv pIuLIorms Lo buIId und muInLuIn wheLher Lhev ure buIIL und
operuLed In Lhe UnILed SLuLes, ¡runce, Lhe UnILed KIngdom, RussIu, or ChInu. As u
poInL oI reIerence, Lhe U.S. Nuvv`s Dhio-cIuss SSBNs cosL roughIv $z bIIIIon USD per
unIL.
=o
The Nuvv projecLs LhuL Lhe cosL oI Lhe IoIIow-on Lo Lhe Dhio-cIuss bouLs wIII
cosL $6 Lo $; bIIIIon USD per unIL.
=1
¡n order Lo provIde u rough esLImuLe oI Lhese
cosLs In Lhe conLexL oI ChInu`s LoLuI mIIILurv budgeL, LhIs urLIcIe esLImuLes Lhe cosLs oI
Lhe Tvpe o¤q bouLs Lo be upproxImuLeIv $· bIIIIon USD per unIL. UsIng ChInu`s
zoo8 oIIIcIuI budgeL IIgures ($6o bIIIIon USD), uIong wILh Lhe Iow und hIgh
esLImuLes oI Lhe DepurLmenL oI DeIense ($1o= und $1=o bIIIIon USD), LhIs meuns
LhuL one Tvpe o¤q bouL uL $· bIIIIon USD per unIL wouId requIre eILher =%, z.8%, or
z% oI ChInu`s LoLuI deIense budgeL. RegurdIess oI whuL ChInu`s oIIIcIuI mIIILurv

46
¡bId.
47
Ben BIunchurd und ChrIs BuckIev, ¨ChInu suvs deIense spendIng rIse sIows Lo ;.=%,¨
ReuLers, Murch q, zo1o, uvuIIubIe uL <
hLLp:JJwww.reuLers.comJurLIcIeJIdUSTRE6z·oA;zo1oo·oq>
48
U.S. DepurLmenL oI DeIense, Annucl Report to Conqress on the Militcru Pouer oI the
People's Republic oI Chinc zooo, p. ·1.
49
¡bId., p. ·1.
50
PeLer ¡rosL, ¨New Sub RoIe CouId Buov Our Economv,¨ Dcilu Press, AprII zq, zoo¤,
uvuIIubIe uL < hLLp:JJurLIcIes.duIIvpress.comJzoo¤-oq-zqJnewsJo¤oqzqooz=_1_newporL-
news-shIpvurd-norLhrop-ohIo-cIuss>
51
RonuId O`Rourke, ¨Nuvv SSBN(X) BuIIIsLIc MIssIIe SubmurIne Progrum: Buckground und
¡ssues Ior Congress,¨ CongressIonuI Reseurch ServIce, June 1o, zo1o, p.1.


ϭϭϳ
budgeL Iooks IIke In zozo, SSBNs requIre sIgnIIIcunL resources us Lhese cuIcuIuLIons
suggesL. SSBN deveIopmenL wIII be one oI munv compeLIng deIense prIorILIes us Lhe
IeudershIp In BeIjIng decIdes how Lo uIIocuLe ILs deIense doIIurs.
Shipbuildinu Cupucity. BuIIdIng Iour Lo sIx Tvpe o¤q bouLs bv zo1= Is weII
wILhIn Lhe cupucILv oI ChInu`s shIpbuIIdIng IndusLrv, whIch hus Improved
consIderubIv In recenL veurs boLh In Lerms oI LechnoIogIcuI sophIsLIcuLIon und
producLIon cupucILv.
=z
However, uII oI ChInu`s SSN und SSBN consLrucLIon hus been
perIormed uL one IucIIILv: Lhe BohuI ShIpbuIIdIng Heuvv ¡ndusLrv compIex In
HuIuduo.

AccordIng Lo NuvuI sLruLegIsLs GubrIeI CoIIIns und MIchueI C. Grubb,
¨The currenL IucIIILv uL HuIuduo Is cupubIe oI supporLIng Lhe PRC`s currenL smuII
Iorce oI SSNs und SSBNs buL couId noL be expecLed Lo supporL u mujor expunsIon oI
Lhe P¡AN nucIeur submurIne Iorce on ILs own.¨
=q
¡rom 1¤¤= Lo zoo;, ChInu
domesLIcuIIv produced un uveruge oI z.o submurInes per veur.
==
DurIng LhIs sume
perIod, onIv Lhree oI Lhese bouLs were nucIeur powered.
=6
SLIII, us oI AugusL zo1o,
Lwo Tvpe o¤qs huve uIreudv compIeLed seu LrIuIs und Lwo oLher bouLs ure reporLedIv
beIng buIIL, whIch meuns compIeLIon oI Lhese bouLs bv zozo Is weII wILhIn ChInu`s
shIpbuIIdIng cupucILv. However, becuuse nucIeur-powered bouLs ure more
LechnoIogIcuIIv compIex und requIre greuLer resources Lhun dIeseI-eIecLrIc bouLs, IL Is
IIkeIv LhuL ChInu`s SSBN submurIne producLIon ruLe wouId be Iower Lhun ILs LoLuI
submurIne producLIon ruLe.
=;

Personnel und Truininu. There Is uIso u humun cupILuI eIemenL Lo successIuI
SSBN operuLIons LhuL cunnoL be negIecLed. ChInu wIII huve Lo buIId un oIIIcer und
enIIsLed corps cupubIe oI operuLIng compIex nucIeur propuIsIon svsLems. ThIs Lvpe
oI knowIedge cunnoL be deveIoped quIckIv und requIres sIgnIIIcunL InvesLmenLs In
personneI und LruInIng. SInce zooz, Lhe P¡AN hus Luken meusures Lo enhunce ILs
submurIne LruInIng bv IncorporuLIng more mIssIon-orIenLed LruInIng subjecLs InLo
Lhe currIcuIum, IncreusIng Lhe use oI sImuIuLor LruInIng, und conducLIng more
reuIIsLIc exercIses, uccordIng Lo u zoo; OIIIce oI NuvuI ¡nLeIIIgence reporL.
=8

CompurubIe SSBNs ure sLuIIed wILh roughIv 1oo-1zo personneI. A IIeeL oI Iour bouLs
wouId requIre u LoLuI oI roughIv q8o enIIsLed personneI und oIIIcers uIong wILh
hundreds, II noL Lhousunds, oI supporL personneI.

52
GubrIeI CoIIIns und MIchueI C. Grubb, A Comprehensite Surteu oI Chinc's Duncmic
Shipbuildinq Industru, ChInu MurILIme SLudIes, Number 1 (NewporL: U.S. NuvuI Wur
CoIIege, AugusL zoo8) p. zz. CoIIIns und Grubb wrILe: ¨VIewed hoIIsLIcuIIv, Lhe cumuIuLIve
eIIecLs oI ChInu`s Improved commercIuI shIpbuIIdIng prowess huve undoubLedIv beneIILed
ChInu`s nuvuI deveIopmenL Lo some degree. As prevIousIv dIscussed, mosL oI ChInu`s
shIpvurds huve undergone sIgnIIIcunL InIrusLrucLure ImprovemenLs, und Lhe Iurge voIume oI
IoreIgn commercIuI suIes hus provIded PRC shIpvurds (und Lhe cenLruI governmenL) wILh
resources necessurv Lo LruIn und equIp LheIr workIorces Ior nuvuI consLrucLIon.¨
53
¡bId, p. q·.
54
¡bId.
55
RonuId O`Rourke, ¨ChInu NuvuI ModernIzuLIon: ¡mpIIcuLIons Ior U.S. Nuvv CupubIIILIes-
Buckground und
¡ssues Ior Congress,¨ CongressIonuI Reseurch ServIce, June 1o, p. 8.
56
¡bId.
57
¡bId.
58
U.S. Nuvv, OIIIce oI NuvuI ¡nLeIIIgence, ¨ChInu`s Nuvv zoo;,¨ Murch zoo;, p. ·;.


ϭϭϴ
Alternctite Iorce Structure ß in zozo
• z Tvpe o¤q bouLs wILh 1z J¡-z S¡BMs per bouL, M¡RV
• q Tvpe o¤6 bouLs wILh zq J¡-· S¡BMs per bouL, M¡RV
Operutionul Cupubility. AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure B hus u LoLuI SSBN IIeeL oI
sIx bouLs-Lwo Tvpe o¤q und Iour Tvpe o¤6 bouLs. ThIs IuLure ussumes LhuL ChInu
eILher buIIL jusL Lwo Tvpe o¤q bouLs or converLed Lhe remuInIng unILs Lo guIded
mIssIIe submurInes (SSGNs)-u cosLIv proposILIon In und oI ILseII. ¡L uIso ussumes
LhuL Lhe Tvpe o¤q wus IurgeIv u LesL bed Ior Lhe Tvpe o¤6 pIuLIorm und provIded un
opporLunILv Ior Lhe P¡AN Lo buIId operuLIonuI experIence operuLIng SSBNs. WILh u
reduced ucousLIc sIgnuLure, Lhe Tvpe o¤6 bouLs wouId be sLeuILhIer Lhun Lhe Tvpe
o¤q bouLs und, us u resuIL, suILubIe Lo more oIIensIve depIovmenL puLLerns In Lhe
open oceun wILhouL proLecLIve cover.
WILh euch Tvpe o¤6 SSBN currvIng zq M¡RVed J¡-· S¡BMs, ChInu wouId
possess Increused IeLhuIILv over Lhe Tvpe o¤q bouLs und bousL uddILIonuI peneLruLIon
cupubIIILv uguInsL poLenLIuI udversurv mIssIIe deIense svsLems. The J¡-· wIII huve u
runge oI uround 11,oookm. A Tvpe o¤6 bouL couId currv unvwhere Irom zq Lo 1¤z
wurheuds, dependIng on how munv wurheuds ure depIoved on euch mIssIIe.


Concepts oI Operution. The quIeLer Tvpe o¤6 bouLs wouId currv Lhe more
udvunced J¡-· mIssIIe, whIch wouId possess u greuLer runge Lhun Lhe J¡-z. ThIs
wouId enubIe ChInu Lo depIov ILs Tvpe o¤6 bouLs InLo Lhe PucIIIc Oceun wILhouL
proLecLIve cover und huve u reduced chunce oI beIng deLecLed Lhun LheIr predecessor
bouLs, Lhe Iouder, more deLecLubIe Tvpe o¤q SSBNs. ConverseIv, Lhe Improved
runge on Lhe J¡-·, however, couId enubIe ChInu Lo udopL u busLIon depIovmenL
sLruLegv whIIe hoIdIng u brouder U.S. LurgeL seL uL rIsk. SImIIurIv, Lhe remuInIng
Tvpe o¤q bouLs couId be depIoved In uccordunce wILh Lhe uIoremenLIoned busLIon
sLruLegv or In un open oceun depIovmenL puLLern.
Commund und Control. AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure B wouId provIde greuLer
commund und conLroI chuIIenges Ior Lhe P¡AN und Lhe poIILIcuI IeudershIp In
BeIjIng us IL hus Lwo more bouLs In Lhe IIeeL Lhun AILernuLIve A-us weII us Lwo
dIIIerenL cIusses oI SSBNs In operuLIon. ¡L Is more Lhun IIkeIv LhuL bv zozo Lhe
P¡AN wIII huve suIIIcIenLIv modernIzed ILs commund und conLroI cupubIIILIes Lo
enubIe conLInuous uL-seu puLroIs. ¡uIIIng Lo InvesL In suIIIcIenL commund und
conLroI cupubIIILIes wouId render Lhe enLIre SSBN IIeeL IrreIevunL. As such, Lhe
P¡AN wIII conLInue Lo deveIop more robusL commund und conLroI svsLems
concurrenLIv wILh ILs SSBN deveIopmenL.
ÐeIense Spendinu.AILernuLIve B wouId requIre sIgnIIIcunL resources bevond Lhe
Iorce sLrucLure posILed In AILernuLIve A-resources bevond whuL Lhe IeudershIp In
BeIjIng muv be wIIIIng Lo uIIocuLe Lo ILs seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL. The cosLs oI
desIgnIng, producIng, und muInLuInIng u new SSBN wouId be sIgnIIIcunL. ¡n Lhe
prevIous secLIon, IL wus posLuIuLed LhuL u sIngIe Tvpe o¤q bouL wouId cosL

59
ThIs cuIcuIuLIon ussumes LhuL Lhe J¡-z Is M¡RVed und cun currv 1-8 wurheuds per mIssIIe.


ϭϭϵ
upproxImuLeIv $· bIIIIon USD. ¡L Is quILe possIbIe LhuL Lhe IoIIow-on Tvpe o¤6 bouL
wouId cosL even more, poLenLIuIIv $q Lo $= bIIIIon USD per bouL, II noL more.
Shipbuildinu Cupucity. AILernuLIve B wouId pIuce u greuLer sLruIn on ChInu`s
shIpbuIIdIng cupucILv buL Is pIuusIbIe gIven Lhe LImeIrume under consIderuLIon und
ChInu`s recenL shIpbuIIdIng Lrends. ProducIng Iour uddILIonuI bouLs bv zozo wouId
requIre ChInu Lo produce un uveruge oI 1 bouL everv z.= veurs, or .q bouLs per veur.
6o

Personnel und Truininu. ¡Ike AILernuLIve A, AILernuLIve B wouId requIre
sIgnIIIcunL InvesLmenLs In personneI und LruInIng. A IIeeL oI sIx bouLs wouId requIre
u LoLuI oI roughIv ;zo enIIsLed personneI und oIIIcers uIong wILh hundreds, II noL
Lhousunds, oI supporL personneI.
Alternctite Iorce Structure C in zozo
• z Tvpe o¤q bouLs wILh 1z J¡-z S¡BMs per bouL, M¡RV
• 6 Tvpe o¤6 bouLs wILh zq J¡-· S¡BMs per bouL, M¡RV
Operutionul Cupubility. AILernuLIve C represenLs u more robusL und umbILIous
Iorce sLrucLure Lhun Lhe precedIng Lwo uILernuLIves. ¡Ike AILernuLIve B, IL ussumes
LhuL ChInu eILher buIIL jusL Lwo Tvpe o¤q bouLs or converLed Lhe remuInIng unILs Lo
SSGNs. ¡n AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure B, Lhe P¡AN operuLes sIx Tvpe o¤6 bouLs und
Lwo Tvpe o¤q bouLs. ThIs Iorce sLrucLure wouId provIde Increused redunduncv und,
us u resuIL, uddILIonuI deLerrenL credIbIIILv.
Concepts oI Operution. The IeudershIp In BeIjIng wouId uIso huve uddILIonuI
IIexIbIIILv In Lerms oI ILs depIovmenL sLruLegv Ior Lhe SSBN IIeeL Ior Lhe sImpIe
reuson LhuL AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure C hus uddILIonuI unILs, IncIudIng sIx Tvpe
o¤6 bouLs. ¡L couId udopL u busLIon depIovmenL sLruLegv, un open-oceun depIovmenL
sLruLegv, or u combInuLIon oI Lhe Lwo. SInce Lhe uddILIonuI bouLs wouId provIde
Increused redunduncv, Lhe ChInese IeudershIp couId dIversIIv ILs depIovmenL
sLruLegv bv udopLIng boLh u busLIon depIovmenL sLruLegv Lo LurgeL U.S. Iorces In
LheuLer und depIov sIngIe SSBNs InLo Lhe PucIIIc Oceun Lo hoId LurgeLs In Lhe
conLInenLuI U.S. uL rIsk.
Commund und Control. AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure C presenLs Lhe uddILIonuI
chuIIenge oI operuLIng uddILIonuI bouLs. A Iurger SSBN IIeeL wIII requIre uddILIonuI
commund und conLroI svsLems us weII us uddILIonuI personneI cupubIe oI operuLIng
Lhese svsLems.
ÐeIense Spendinu. AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure C wouId requIre uddILIonuI
resources, weII bevond LhuL oI Lhe prevIous Lwo uILernuLIves-more resources Lhun
Lhe IeudershIp In BeIjIng muv be wIIIIng Lo uIIocuLe Lo Lhe seu-Ieg oI ILs nucIeur Iorce
sLrucLure. WILh Lwo Tvpe o¤q bouLs uL u cosL oI $· bIIIIon USD per unIL und sIx Tvpe
o¤6 bouLs uL $q Lo $= bIIIIon USD per unILs, AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure C wouId
requIre u sIgnIIIcunL commILmenL oI resources over Len veurs. ¡L couId requIre u
LoLuI InvesLmenL oI $·o bIIIIon Lo $·6 bIIIIon USD Irom zo1o Lo zozo.

60
ThIs cuIcuIuLIon ussumes LhuL Lhe P¡AN hus onIv Lwo operuLIonuI SSBNs us oI AugusL
zo1o.


ϭϮϬ
Shipbuildinu Cupucity. ThIs Iorce sLrucLure wouId pIuce uddILIonuI sLruIn on
ChInu`s shIpbuIIdIng cupucILv buL wouId be pIuusIbIe bv Lhe zozo LImeIrume. SIx
uddILIonuI bouLs wouId requIre ChInu Lo produce un uveruge oI 1 bouL everv 1.6 veurs,
or .6 bouLs per veur.
PersonnelJTruininu. A IIeeL oI eIghL bouLs wouId requIre u LoLuI oI roughIv ¤6o
enIIsLed personneI und oIIIcers uIong wILh Lhousunds oI supporL personneI.
Alternctite Iorce Structure D in zozo
• z Tvpe o¤q bouLs wILh 1z J¡-z S¡BMs per bouL, M¡RV
• 8 Tvpe o¤6 bouLs wILh zq J¡-· S¡BMs per bouL, M¡RV

Operutionul Cupubility. ¡n zo1o, Lhe U.S. Nuvv Is operuLIng 1q Dhio-cIuss
SSBNs; LhIs number couId decreuse bv zozo, II uddILIonuI unILs ure converLed Lo
SSGNs (Iour huve uIreudv been converLed). AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure D wouId
gIve BeIjIng neur-purILv wILh WushIngLon In Lerms oI SSBNs IIeIded und poLenLIuIIv u
mujor udvunLuge In LoLuI wurheuds.

Concepts oI Operutions. ¡Ike AILernuLIve C, LhIs IuLure provIdes Lhe IeudershIp
In BeIjIng wILh Increused redunduncv und uddILIonuI IIexIbIIILv In Lerms oI poLenLIuI
depIovmenL puLLerns. As wILh Lhe prevIous Iorce sLrucLure, ChInu couId udopL u
busLIon depIovmenL sLruLegv, un open-oceun depIovmenL sLruLegv, or u combInuLIon
oI Lhe Lwo.

Commund und Control.AILeruLIve ¡orce SLrucLure D Is Lhe IurgesL SSBN IIeeL oI
Lhe Iour presenLed und Lhus requIres Lhe IurgesL number oI supporLIng commund
und conLroI svsLems und personneI Lo operuLe Lhem.

ÐeIense Spendinu.AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure D couId requIre u LoLuI InvesLmenL
oI $·8 bIIIIon Lo $q6 bIIIIon USD Irom zo1o Lo zozo. WILh compeLIng deIense
prIorILIes, IL Is uncIeur wheLher or noL Lhe IeudershIp In BeIjIng wouId dIverL such
sIgnIIIcunL resources Irom oLher modernIzuLIon progrums Lo buIId LhIs Lvpe oI Iorce
sLrucLure.

Shipbuildinu Cupucity. EIghL uddILIonuI bouLs wouId requIre ChInu Lo produce
un uveruge oI 1 bouL everv 1.z= veurs, or .8 bouLs per veur. WhIIe LhIs IuLure wouId
IIkeIv LesL Lhe upper IImILs oI ChInese shIpbuIIdIng cupucILv, IL does seem pIuusIbIe
In Lhe zozo LImeIrume.

PersonnelJTruininu. A IIeeL oI Len bouLs wouId requIre u LoLuI oI roughIv 1zoo
enIIsLed personneI und oIIIcers uIong wILh Lhousunds oI supporL personneI.

Which Iorce Structure Will Beijinu Choose?

Euch oI Lhe Iour AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLures presenLed In LhIs urLIcIe uppeur Lo be
pIuusIbIe In Lerms oI boLh cosL und shIpbuIIdIng cupucILv In Lhe zozo LImeIrume.
However, AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLures A und B seem Lo be Lhe mosL IIkeIv gIven Lhe
Lremendous resources requIred Ior Lhe deveIopmenL oI AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure
D und Lhe sImIIurILIes beLween AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLures B und C. Thev uIso


ϭϮϭ
uppeur Lo be mosL consIsLenL wILh recenL ucquIsILIon Lrends und procuremenL
ucLIvILv.

AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure B wouId provIde Lhe IeudershIp In BeIjIng wILh
enough modern bouLs Lo conducL conLInuous uL-seu deLerrenL puLroIs. Moreover,
LhIs Iorce sLrucLure wouId provIde Lhe P¡AN wILh Lwo Tvpe o¤q bouLs und Iour Tvpe
o¤6 bouLs, oIIerIng uddILIonuI IIexIbIIILv wILh respecL Lo concepLs oI operuLIon. The
operuLIonuI cupubIIILv oI LhIs Iorce sLrucLure wouId be u murked ImprovemenL over
AILernuLIve ¡orce SLrucLure A sInce IL wouId be prImurIIv comprIsed oI Lhe much
quIeLer Tvpe o¤6 bouLs wILh Lhe J¡-· S¡BM.

Conclusion

The exucL Iorce sLrucLure BeIjIng eIecLs Lo buIId muv Iook dIIIerenL Irom Lhe Iour
uILernuLIve IuLures posILed In LhIs sLudv. However, Lhe busIc uLLrIbuLes presenLed In
Lhese uILernuLIves ure IIkeIv Lo be kev churucLerIsLIcs In unv IuLure ChInese SSBN
Iorce sLrucLure-wheLher BeIjIng IIeIds z or 1o SSBNs. ¡n ILs drIve Lo deveIop u
credIbIe uL-seu nucIeur deLerrenL, BeIjIng wIII Iook Lo IIeId sLeuILhIer submurInes wILh
more M¡RVed buIIIsLIc mIssIIes, provIdIng Iur greuLer cupubIIILv Lhun Lhe IIrsL- und
second-generuLIon SSBNs und S¡BMs couId oIIer.

GIven Lhe IuIIures oI Lhe Xic-cIuss progrum, WesLern unuIvsLs muv be
LempLed Lo underesLImuLe ChInu`s seu-bused nucIeur weupons cupubIIILv. DespILe
probIems wILh ILs Tvpe o¤q bouLs und ILs J¡-z S¡BMs, Lhe P¡AN`s currenL LrujecLorv
suggesLs LhuL ChInu Is on Lhe cusp oI u sIgnIIIcunL Ieup In cupubIIILv und wIII soon
depIov u credIbIe seu-bused nucIeur deLerrenL. Once IuIIv operuLIonuI, Lhe P¡AN`s
SSBN IIeeL, even wILh u modesL number oI bouLs, wIII enhunce ChInu`s sLruLegIc
sLrIke cupubIIILIes und sLrengLhen BeIjIng`s overuII deLerrence posLure bv provIdIng
enhunced runge, mobIIILv, sLeuILh, survIvubIIILv, peneLruLIon, und IeLhuIILv.

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