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Unit 5_Risk Assessment and Management

Unit 5_Risk Assessment and Management

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Introduction Any industrial activity involves some risk or hazard in terms of fire, explosion, toxic releases etc. which lead to injuries, loss of life & property ultimately adversely affecting the environment as a whole if not managed correctly resulting Truly speaking, any industrial installation should have Zero risk situation, but, it is impossible to achieve it.

The potential causes for accidents are: 
Increasing production. Storage Volume.  Competitive technology.  Use of hazardous substances.

Risk Assessment & Risk Management gives a framework for : ‡ Setting regulatory priorities ‡ Decision Making that cut across various environmental areas.

³Environmental Risk Assessment´ may be broadly defined as a scientific enterprise in which facts and assumptions are used to estimate the adverse effects on human health or the environment that may result from exposures to specific pollutants or other toxic agents.

. economic information about cost and benefits.³Environmental Risk Management´ refers to a decision making process involving risk assessment. public concerns etc. statutory requirements. technological feasibility. ³ Risk Communication´ is the exchange of information about risk.

RISK ASSESSMENT : It is the systematic examination of an actual or proposed industrial installation: (1) to identify potential hazard to occur & (2) to identify the possible consequences from these hazards which would assist in decision making for reducing risk to an acceptable level. .

(ALARP) and this is achieved through a technique called ³Risk Assessment or Risk Analysis´.ALARP: Mgmt. . must take all measures to reduce risks as low as reasonably practicable.

explosion and release of toxic & harmful gases. . The potential hazards can be of fire.What is Hazard? It is the property of a substance or a situation which has the potential to cause harm.

. like: ‡Human injury or death ‡ Damage to the environment ‡Damage to physical assets ‡Loss of production The words ³threat´ and ³danger´ are sometimes used with a similar meaning as hazard.HAZARD By hazard we mean any physical activity. situation or condition with the potential to cause harm.

lightning). storm.Hazard Categories Hazards may generally be classified as: 1. Technological hazards (e. 3. 2. assault. transportation systems. technical equipment. terrorism.. structures.g. Natural hazards (e.. war.g. herbicides.g. communicable disease). . consumer products. 4. Flooding. pesticides. Societal hazards (e. earthquake. arson. sabotage. industrial facilities.. pharmaceuticals).

So. It may also be defined as the unwanted consequences from a particular activity. Risk = Frequency of the occurrence × Magnitude of consequences . Risk has two variables: (a) Magnitude of consequences (b) Probability or frequency of the occurrence.What is Risk? It is related to the consequences of identified hazard.

What Is Risk? An expectation of loss Always an element of uncertainty Always refers to future Usually covers both severity and likelihood of a loss Usually refers to unwanted consequences .

Personnel consequences Fatalities Impairment 2. Economic loss Damage to material assets Production/service loss 4. Image loss(i.The consequences of an accident may be classified in different categories. Environmental damage 3.. Information loss 4. as 1.e. damage to reputation) .

Why Risk Assessment (Objectives of RA): (1) To prioritize safety investments : All organizations have limited resources. Risk assessment can be used to prioritize risks and ensure that investment is directed to the greatest risks. (2) Risk estimates aids in decision making. (3) Corporate Mgmt develops positive public relations with employees. . community and the Govt.

(1) (2) (3) (4) Hazard Identification Exposure Assessment Hazard Assessment Risk Characterization .RISK EVALUATION: There are four steps in the evaluation of a risk.

(1) HAZARD IDENTIFICATION: It is an analysis to determine which of the discharges from a process or an accidental release will be a potential danger to public health. . E. disease or death under certain exposure conditions). Chemicals such as CO. HCl and unburned organics would be established as potential sources of risk for an incinerator. Various methods are used to collect and evaluate toxic properties ( properties that indicate the potential to cause biological injury.g. The means of identifying hazard is complex.

. .) Methods: (1) EPI-DEMIOLOGICAL STUDY: Use of ³epidemiological´ studies deal with the incidence of disease among groups of people.HAZARD IDENTIFICATION:(Cont«. The study attempts to correlate incidence of disease like cancer from an emission by evaluation of people with a particular disease and people without the disease.

HAZARD IDENTIFICATION: (Cont«.g. Increased tumor incidence in laboratory animals is the primary health effect considered in animal bioassay.) Methods: (2) BIOASSAY: Long ±term animal ³bioassays´ ( an evaluation of disease in a laboratory animal) is a very common method for hazard identification. Exposure testing for a major portion of an animal¶s lifetime (2 -3 years for rats and mice) provides information on disease susceptibility. e.. primarily for carcinogenicity ( the development of cancer). .

ingestion of food materials etc. there is no risk without exposure. Thus. The principal pathways of exposure generally considered in exposure assessment are atmospheric transport. The exposure assessment attempts to define the route. . Human exposure includes ingestion (eating or drinking). These means of exposure are pathways to the human body.(2) EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT: This determines how much of an emission actually reaches the receptor. amount. surface and ground water transport. frequency and duration of exposure of a given population to a toxic substance. dermal contact ( contact with the skin) & inhalation.

(2) HAZARD ASSESSMENT : A hazard assessment is a determination of the relationship between the amount of exposure and the risk to public health. Obviously. A person can drown in water. but that does not mean that a glass of water is a danger to health. what defines a danger is not necessarily the presence of a particular chemical but rather the amount of that substance one is exposed to. . This amount is called ³dose´.

) Hazard assessment is also referred to as ³Dose ± response assessment´. However. at least be detected). the threshold. . a health effect will occur ( or.HAZARD ASSESSMENT : (Cont«.. For many substances. For toxic substances other than carcinogens. Dose is usually expressed as milligrams of chemical received per kilogram of body weight per day. a threshold dose must be exceeded before a health effect will occur. there is a dosage level below which there is no harm. at some given dosage.

This characterization gives a number that represents the probability of adverse health effects from that process or from a substance released in that process.(4) RISK CHARACTERIZATION: It estimates the health risk associated with the process under investigation. .

RISK CHARACTERIZATION:(Cont«) Once a risk characterization is made. . the meaning of that risk must be evaluated. Public health agencies generally only consider ³risk´ greater than 10 in 1 million to be significant risks warranting action.

risks are generally measured in terms of deaths (since there is better accuracy in data pertaining to death). Risks are generally expressed as (1) Individual risks (2) Societal risks. exposure to harmful releases etc.MEASURE OF RISK Though the risks to the people from industrial hazards may be in the form of injuries . ..

A simple way to express an IR is the ³FATAL ACCIDENT RATE´ (FAR). It is the probability of death occurring as a result of an accident at plant or an installation or a transport route. .(1) Individual Risk ( IR) : This is the risk to an individual person.

5 hrs /day One person works on average= 7. 2000 hrs.Individual Risk ( IR) : (Cont««) ³FATAL ACCIDENT RATE´ (FAR) is the number of fatalities per 108 exposed hours. 108 exposed hrs. at work´ .5hrs/wk One person works on average = 37.5×5= 37.5×52wks(yr) = 1950 hrs/year ( Say.) Thus. One person works on average = 7. ³Exposed hours is the mean hrs. 1000 persons in lifetime (50 yrs) would work = 1000×50×2000 = 100000000 i.e.

One fatal accident per 50 yrs.30.Individual Risk ( IR) : (Cont««) ³FATAL ACCIDENT RATE´ (FAR) typically varies in the range of 1 . . For a site employing 1000 people. FAR of 1 means one fatal accident over 1000 working lifetimes or.

RISK CHARACTERIZATION:(Cont«) (2) Population Risk (PR) : This is also known as ³group risk´ from an activity. The is often plotted as FN curve showing the cumulative frequency (F) of accidents and Number of fatalities( N). . It is the relationship between frequency of an accident and total number of people harmed.

plant safety reviews. RA can be used to prioritize risks and ensure that investments is directed to the greatest risks). To get approval of projects.To prioritize safety investment (All organizations have limited resources. . 5. preparation of emergency / disaster plan etc. 4. community and the Govt. To make planning & decision especially for areas like plant design.Objectives of Risk Assessment 1. To estimate financial risks. To develop positive public relations with employees. 3. 2.

Objectives of Risk Assessment (Cont ) 6. To identify major risk contributors and to recommend remedial measures for risk reduction. To carry out cost ± benefit analysis for the implementation of the remedial measures. To compare the estimated individual & societal risks against acceptance criteria. 8. 10. To address land use planning issues including suitability of location. 7. layout and design. 9. . To develop appropriate contingency plan.

Components of Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment ( QRA) includes: (1) System Description (2) Hazard Identification (3) Scenario Selection (4) Consequence Estimation (5) Likelihood Estimation (6) Risk Estimation (7) Utilization of Risk Estimates .

e.System Description: It is the compiled process information that are needed for the Risk Analysis.g. (1) Site Location (2) Weather Data (3) Process Flow Diagrams (PFD) (4) Piping & Instrument Diagram (P & ID) (5) Layout Drawing (6) Effluent & Emission Summary (7) Operating & Maintenance Procedures .

particularly those which would create a hazardous situation or a severe impairment of the process. (5) What if Analysis . (4) Failure Mode and Effects (FMEA) .Hazard Identification: It includes: (1) Checklists (2) Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) (3) Hazard & Operability (HAZOP) Studies It is a methodology for identifying and dealing with potential problems in industrial processes.It prioritizes potential failures by looking into the probability of occurrence and likelihood of failure.

(2) Inventory of hazardous substance .Scenario Selection: It is used to list out all accidental release scenarios that have the potential to impact the members of the public outside the installation boundary. It considers: (1) Nature of the hazardous substance released & its operating T. P etc.

Consequence Estimation: It is used to determine the potential for damage or injury from particular incidents. the areas of the site which would be affected in the event of an emergency is located. Outcomes of an incident are analyzed using source & dispersion models and Explosion & Fire Models. By using this technique. .

Likelihood / Frequency Estimation: It is used to estimate the frequency or probability of occurrence of an incident. . Estimates may be obtained from historical incident data.

. This involves mapping the accident areas and risk pattern.Risk Estimation: It combines the consequences and likelihood of all incident outcomes from all selected incidents to provide a measure of risk.

Utilization of Risk Estimates: It is the process by which the result from a risk analysis is used to make decisions. .

pump seals or overflow of a tank or vessel. . It helps in the identification of most vulnerable sections of the installation and facilities that pose maximum possible risk if the hazardous materials are released as a result of a failure. This may be due to leakage from a crack or fracture of the process vessel.What is Maximum Credible Accident (MCA) Analysis? It is a tool used to find the maximum potential damage an accident can cause. vents.

wind condition and density of population. location. .What is Maximum Credible Accident (MCA) Analysis? ( Cont«.) The extent of consequences arising from the hazardous substances will largely depend on quantity released.

Accident Scenarios of Risk Potential (1) BLEVE( Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion): This is a type of explosion that can occur when a vessel containing a pressurized liquid is ruptured. The primary cause is usually an external flame impinging on the shell of a vessel leading to sudden rupture of the shell. LPG Storage vessels in petroleum installations can cause severe BLEVE. The released liquid results into a fire ± ball having intense heat. The explosion is sufficient to cause fragments of the container to fly over large distances of few kms. . A BLEVE results from the rupture of a vessel containing a liquid substantially above its atmospheric boiling point. with a gaseous vapor above the liquid filling the remainder of the container. The substance is stored partly in liquid form. Such explosions can be extremely hazardous. It causes intense damage to life and property.

A BLEVE erupting from a tanker .


. an explosive gas or vapor cloud can form. This flammable mixture will explode if ignited causing extensive damage to the surroundings.Accident Scenarios of Risk Potential ( Cont«) (2) UCVE ( Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion): When a flammable gas or liquid escapes into the atmosphere and mixes with air .

Accident Scenarios of Risk Potential ( Cont«) (3) Jet Fires: Ejection of a flammable liquid from a vessel. pipe etc. can give rise to a jet flame if the material ignites. It is not easy to handle since a large jet flame has a substantial reach ( sometimes 50 m or more). The jet flames from a pressure relief valves can cause adjacent vessels to overheat and burst giving rise to BLEVE ( Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion). .

It can range from sudden exposure at high concentrations to prolonged exposure at low concentrations.Accident Scenarios of Risk Potential Toxic Dispersion: The hazard due to toxic chemical depends on the condition of exposure and the type of chemical. A very large release of toxic chemical ( Cl or H2S) usually have greater disaster potential than fires or explosion. .

property and environment ( objective of Risk Mgmt.) Risk Mgmt. cost ± benefit analysis.Risk Management & Control After assessing the risks . one recognizes the courses of actions that would control and minimize the risks to human health. . acceptable risks etc. involves resource allocation.

(4) Preparing Emergency / Disaster plans to handle effectively any emergency situations with minimum damages. . involves: (1) Reduction of risks to acceptable limits by judicious investments.) Risk Mgmt. (2) Relocating the activities on alternate sites / routes (3) Taking appropriate considerations when buying ³Insurance Policy´ of installations with potential high risks.Risk Management & Control ( Cont«.

(2) Quality control procedures must ensure that all equipment conforms to design standards and specifications. maintained and tested at suitable intervals. (4) Personnel must be experienced and trained.) Effective Risk Mgmt. .Risk Management & Control ( Cont«. (3) All equipment must be inspected. Depends on: (1) Sound standards of engineering design must be used.

The risk from an activity should be judged against the benefits from the activity.Risk Acceptance / Tolerance The result of a risk assessment is a quantification of risk. But. the question is how much risk can be acceptable or tolerable. authorities & the industry. since no activity can claim to be totally risk free. It brings the level of risk that is acceptable to public. .

. it especially becomes the concern of regulators to assess the risk & evaluate it. common public outside). When an industrial activity imposes risk common public.Risk Acceptance Criteria: Since all industrial activities involve risks including risks of fatality ( may be employees engaged in the activity or.

Risk Acceptance Criteria: (Cont««) A good risk criteria should recognize: (1) Level of risk which is so high that it is considered unacceptable/ intolerable regardless of the benefits derived from the activity. Risks become tolerable when all practicable measures are taken to reduce risk to ALARP. . (3) Level of risk in between that is to be considered tolerable subject to their being reduced to ³As Low As is Reasonably Practicable´ (ALARP). (2) Level of risk which is low enough to be considered negligible.

environment and company reputation. It is a tool that standardizes qualitative risk assessment and facilitates the categorization of risk from threats to health. I . safety.Risk Assessment Matrix Risk Assessment Matrix is a tool for ranking different activities / projects in terms of their potential benefit and the likely risks/cost in implementing them.

Risk Assessment Matrix (Cont«.) Likelihood I Consequences Catastro phic (5) 10 Major (4) 9 Moderate (3) 8 Minor (2) 7 Insignific ant (1) 6 Almost Certain (5) Likely (4) Possible (3) Unlikely (2) Rare (1) 9 8 7 6 8 7 6 5 7 6 5 4 6 5 4 3 5 4 3 2 ..

senior mgmt. mgmt. attention needed Specific monitoring or procedures required.) I Risk Score 9 .10 7-8 Risk Description Extreme High What should be done? Immediate action required Action plan required..Risk Assessment Matrix (Cont«. responsibility must be specified Manage through routine procedures 5-6 Moderate 2-4 Low .

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