T2.

11 - fact sheet

http://tyndall.e-collaboration.co.uk/publications/fact_sheets/untitled/t2_...

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How will climate change affect flooding and water supply?
Climate change is likely to increase rainfall and flood risk in some regions but decrease rainfall in many areas prone to drought. The associated costs are generally calculated using average temperature changes over areas of continental size. However, such calculations do not account for the impacts of changes in extreme rainfall on flood damage and water supply, or the small geographic scales over which these changes often occur. To plan effective adaptation options, assessments of impacts are needed that account for the spatial variability of changes and the potential for rapid or extreme change. Professor Nigel Arnell, from the University of Southampton's Department of Geography, and colleagues are assessing the impacts of changing weather extremes and possible abrupt climate change on water supply and flood control on local scales. They will enhance the resolution of results from a global climate change model to investigate the impacts on water of different rates of greenhouse gas emissions and the possibility of abrupt changes in the thermohaline ocean circulation. From the resulting climate information, the researchers will simulate daily hydrological responses to estimate the impacts of a given change in climate on water flows over regions approximately 50km wide. The researchers will use the resulting river flow and run-off data to develop a hydrological impacts model that provides information about the costs of water supply and flood protection services. The resulting simulations and cost estimates will provide water-related impact assessments for the Tyndall Integrated Assessment Model, to enable the investigation of the implications of different climate change mitigation options. It will also enable the exploration of various ways to adapt to changing flood risk and water resources. The results will also be used to inform policy-makers on planning for future flood protection and water supply.

A new Tyndall project is simulating the water-related impacts of changes in extreme weather and abrupt climate change on local scales, to incorporate into Integrated Assessment Models that identify and evaluate potential adaptive actions. © Yorkshire Post More information Contact the lead investigator of Project T2.11 (Interfacing climate and impacts models in integrated assessment systems): Professor Nigel Arnell Department of Geography, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK Phone: +44 (0) 2380 59 4648; Fax: +44 (0) 2380 59 3295 Email: n.w.arnell@soton.ac.uk Other researchers involved in this project are:

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T2.11 - fact sheet

http://tyndall.e-collaboration.co.uk/publications/fact_sheets/untitled/t2_...

Dr Tim Osborn, Dr Sarah Raper and Dr Clare Goodess, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Dr Rachel Warren and Dr Tim Mitchell, Tyndall Centre, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Dr Richard Wood, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK Met Office Project duration: October 2002 to March 2004 Useful web sites: The Tyndall Centre: www.tyndall.ac.uk Department of Geography, University of Southampton: www.geog.soton.ac.uk UK Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Flood issues: www.defra.gov.uk/news/issues/floods.asp

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