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CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHALLENGES TO FOOD SECURITY

IN THE RED RIVER DELTA OF VIETNAM

Tuyen P. Nghiem1, Pamela McElwee2

Le Van Hue, Vu Dieu Huong1

1. RURAL POVERTY IN VIETNAM (overview)

Poverty in Vietnam is measured by a standard government measure;
according to Decision 170/2005/QĐ-TTg, poor households in rural areas have a
monthly income per person of below 200,000 VND and below 260,000 VND for urban
areas. Areas with households below this standard are considered poor. There has
been a strong reduction in overall poverty in Vietnam in the past 20 years, with the
fraction of households living below the poverty line at less than 15 percent in 2006,
compared to over 58 percent in 1993 (VDR 2008). But despite the overall direction
of declines in poverty, pockets of inequality remain. For example, the gap between
those with the highest incomes and those with the lowest has increased (Swinkels
and Turk 2004). Furthermore, poverty is now regionally concentrated in mostly rural
and ethnic minority-dominated areas. Most remaining poor people (about 90% of all
poor in Vietnam) are living in rural areas (Socialist Republic of Vietnam, 2005). The
poorest of the poor reside in the Central Highlands, Northern Uplands and North
Central Coast. Ethnic minorities are also disproportionately poor. For example, while
only 14 percent of the total population, ethnic minorities currently account for 44
percent of the poor and 59 percent of the food-hungry (World Bank 2009). The main
vulnerable regions for poverty include the Northern Mountains, the Central Highlands
and the North Central Coast, which remain poorer than the rest of the country in
terms of percentages of people in poverty (see Table 1 and 2 and Figure 1). In terms
of total numbers of poor, however, the Red River Delta and Mekong Delta are
important because of their overall large sizes of populations and consequently large
absolute numbers of poor people. Table 1 indicates regional divergence in assets
and housing, which give an indicator of different types of poverty and vulnerabilities;
for example, substandard housing is more common in the Mekong Delta, and thus
would be more vulnerability to being hit from more storms in the future.
Table 1. Incidence of Poverty by Region (% of total HH who are classified as poor)
Region 1993 1998 2002 2004 2006
All of Vietnam 58 37 29 20 16
Northern Mountains 82 X X X X
North East X 62 38 29 25
North West X 73 68 59 49
Red River Delta 63 29 22 12 9
North Central Coast 75 48 44 32 29
South Central Coast 47 35 25 19 13
Central Highlands 70 52 52 31 29
South East 37 12 11 5 6

1
Center for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, Vietnam National University at Hanoi
2
Arizona State University, US
1
 Mekong Delta 47 37 23 16 10
Source: VHLSS data in World Bank 2009

Table 2. Quality of housing and access to assets by region

Region Solid Semi-Solid Not solid % HH % HH % HH
house house house with with with
(concrete) (wood and (bamboo, motor- color TV phone
concrete) etc) cycle
All of Vietnam 16 72 12 53 71 30.2
North East 13 76 11 48 60 16.0
North West 10 69 21 47 47 7.8
Red River Delta 38 60 2 51 82 30.7
North Central Coast 12 80 8 44 71 19.6
South Central Coast 4 88 8 63 75 22.5
Central Highlands 5 83 12 65 66 20.0
South East 7 82 11 80 80 48.6
Mekong Delta 7 64 29 43 64 27.0
Source: 2006 Rural, Agricultural and Fisheries Census

Figure 1. Poverty Map of Vietnam indicating Poverty Incidence to district level

Source: Minot et al 2004, based on 1999 Population

and Housing Census data and VHLSS data

It is estimated that by 2010, some 21% of the population will remain in

poverty, and of these, 37% will be ethnic minorities. The livelihoods of the poor often
rely heavily on use of natural resources.

Poverty taken in terms of percentages of the population indicate mountainous

areas with ethnic minorities are most vulnerable (Northern Mountains and Central

2
Highlands). But in absolute numbers of poor, the RRD and Mekong Delta remain
significant as well. And some wealthier households are also likely to be sensitive to
damage, as well as urban ones. Furthermore, areas with substandard housing
(Mekong Delta) and few household assets are also likely to be at risk.

2. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE FLOOD AFFECTED WETLAND POOR IN THE

RED RIVER DELTA
The Red River Delta (RRD), also known as the Northern Delta, is the flat plain
formed by the Red River and its tributaries in Northern Vietnam. The RRD covers an
area of nearly 1.3 million hectares, accounting for 3.8% of the total area of Vietnam.
The delta is ringed by a coast bordering on the South China Sea to the east. The
RRD is a fertile land area, built up by the alluvium from the river system, which
encompasses a complex set of rivers running through different river mouths (the
Thai Binh, Ninh Co, Tra Ly, Ba Lat, Van Uc, and Day rivers) that fan out and empty in
to the Gulf of Tonkin in the East Sea over 200 km of coastline (Mai et al, 2009). The
lower RRD covers an area of nearly 1.3 million hectares, accounting for 3.8% of the
total area of Vietnam, and is characterized by mostly agriculture and aquaculture
production. 58% of the delta is less than 2 m below sea level, and 72% is below 3
meters (Bui Nam Sach, 2004). The central area of the RRD is flat (0.4 to 12 meters
above sea level), with more than half of the area less than 2 meters above sea level.
The average rainfall of the RRD fluctuates from 1,400 mm to 2,000 mm per year, with
the uneven distribution from the North-West area to South - East area (Hai, Nguyen.
2008).

The RRD include 9 provinces: Bac Ninh, Ha Nam, Ha Noi, Hai Duong, Hai
Phong, Hung Yen, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, and Thai Binh (Table 3). It is the most
densely populated region of the country, with a total population of 17,649,700
persons (2003 statistics). The population density is the highest nationwide with
1,225 persons per square kilometer, and can be explained by many factors (Khanh
Tran et.al., 2001). The intensive farming system that requires extensive labor is one
of the most important reasons. Favorable natural conditions for production and
residential purposes are no less important. In addition, a high density of industrial
clusters and a dense network of urban areas also explain such a high population
density in the RRD.
Table 3. Population of Red River Delta Provinces
Average population Area Density
(Thousand) (Km2) (Persons/km2)
Ha Noi 3,289 921.8 3,568
Vinh Phuc 1,190 1,373.2 867
Bac Ninh 1,028 823.1 1,250
Ha Tay 2,561 2,198 1,165
Hai Duong 1,732 1,652.8 1,048
Hai Phong 1,827 1,520.7 1,202
Hung Yen 1,156 923.5 1,252
Thai Binh 1,868 1,546.5 1,208
Ha Nam 825 859.7 960
Nam Dinh 1,991 1,650.8 1,206
Ninh Binh 928 1,392.4 667
Total 18,400 14,862.5 1,238
Source: GSO, 2007

3
 Due to the high pressures of population, the per capita cultivation area is very
low in the RRD, only 400 m2 per person which is equal to only half of the national
average (GSO, 2007). Given the limited land area and dense population, intensive
cultivation is therefore the key solution in the region. The RRD has a high potential
for food and food stuff production and is the second largest rice basket of the nation,
after the Mekong Delta in the south. Land used in agricultural production in the RRD
includes more than 700,000 hectares, counting for 56% of the total natural land of the
RRD. Rice is the most critical crop in terms of cultivation area and productivity. Rice
growing covers 88% of land area used for growing food crops in the area and it
accounts for nearly 14% of the total rice area in the country (GSO, 2007). Thai Binh
has been the leading province in rice productivity with 61,600 kg/ha in 1999, and
productivity can reach 8-10 tons/year in some communes of the province.
Aquaculture in fresh and salt water areas has developed quickly in recent years, but
has not yet reached the importance of agriculture. Only 580,000 ha of water surface
in the area is used for aqua farming.

Climate change in the RRD. The RRD has a strong monsoonal climate with
large differences between the wet and dry seasons (see Figure 2). Around 80% of
the total annual rainfall occurs during the 6 month monsoon season from
approximately late May to early November, with an average rainfall of 1900 mm/yr
(Bui Nam Sach, 2004). Some of the main climate pressures in the northern part of
Vietnam include:

• Typhoons from the South China Sea which bring sudden and torrential rains
and high winds to coastal areas. Typhoons and storms are most frequent in
the fall months, and while the RRD is somewhat protected from Pacific storms
by the shielding effect of the Philippines and Hainan island of China, a
number of the strongest category storms do hit the RRD with some regularity.
On average, the RRD is hit by 6 typhoons a season.
• Storm surges which arise during typhoons or in strong winds. Because much
of the coastal region of the RRD is not much higher than 1 m above sea level,
an area up to 20 km inland from the coast is vulnerable to storm surges that
bring salt water intrusion inland.
• Sudden rainfall events have occurred with some regularity in the RRD, and
can lead to very quick flash floods and localized inundation.

Figure 2. Variation in Precipitation and Frequency of Storms in Wet and Dry Seasons in
Southeast Asia, 1956-2006

4
 DRY SEASON ACTIVITY

START OF MONSOON SEASON

Source: OCHA Regional Office for Asia-Pacific, 2008

Floods from both rains and typhoons are extremely serious in the RRD,
because of the high population densities of people living there, and the proximity of
much of this population to either river streams or to the sea in coastal areas. The
major causes of floods in RRD have been highlighted in a report by Ministry of
Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). They include a dense system of
rivers, low-lying topography, sea level rise, difficult circulation of flood water caused
by degraded quality of water supply and drainage systems, pressure on the dyke
system caused by rapid urbanization and high population growth, and limited
capacity in weather forecasting. From 1976 to 2003 floods in the RRD killed 15,835
people, inundated 2.7 million of ha of agricultural land, caused the destruction of
22,766 ships, and devastated 13.4 million of houses. In total, the economic damage
has been estimated at 3.5 billion USD (Dang, 2004).

These natural phenomenon like typhoons and rainstorms are compounded by

man-made problems in the inadequate system of flood control in the RRD as a
whole, and climate change is likely to increase these problems. Currently, the RRD
is protected by two dyke systems: a river dyke system of 3,000 km length that
controls river floods from the Red River and tributaries; and a sea dyke system of
1,500 km in length that keeps the area safe from stormy waves and sea water
intrusion. But these dykes are in many places too low to resist large floods and
surges (an average height of only 6 to 8 m in most places and a maximum height of
11m) (Bui Nam Sach, 2004). Tributaries of the Red River are often backed up due to
poor irrigation, drainage and pumping infrastructure, exacerbating the flooding
caused by natural events. Two large fairly newly built reservoirs upstream of Hanoi
help control some flood events (the Thac Ba reservoir on the Chay river with 574
million cubic meters of capacity and the Hoa Binh reservoir on the Da River with 5

5
billion cubic meters capacity), and at least two more are in the construction stages
(the Tuyen Quang reservoir with 1 billion cubic meters and Son La reservoir with 2
billion cubic meters capacity)(Bui Nam Sach, 2004). The French-built Day River
Barrage also is used for flood control. The entire system works both for flood control
and drainage as well as for irrigation; nine main irrigation reservoirs provide sufficient
irrigation for 60,000 ha, but the current capacity only regulates around 6% of the
annual water flow.

In much of the downstream, flood and irrigation infrastructure was built more
than 40 years ago, and some dates as far back to the French colonial era in the early
1900s; it is estimated that the majority of RRD flood infrastructure is now old or of
poor quality (Figure 3). Every year with strong storms, hundreds of kilometers of
dikes are damaged or leak. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
(MARD) has estimated that for the next two years alone (2009-2010) 2,500 billion
VND are needed for system upgrades, while local governments need 2,651 billion
VND for smaller canals and construction of pumping stations (VNA, 2008). Another
major challenge is improving the land use planning, as currently much land which is
designed for agricultural production has been converted into industrial land, or urban
land, without flood prevention measures. Related problems include the loss of forests
around the RRD which no longer retain water, leading to greater volumes
accumulating in flood prone areas. The system is further complicated by multiple
overlapping management responsibilities, from Provincial Irrigation and Drainage
Management companies, District Irrigation Enterprises, and Commune Agricultural
Cooperatives that are supposed to manage polder irrigation and drainage, while
inter-provincial dyke systems are managed directly by MARD.
Figure 3. Typical sluice gates on a low-height dike in Kien Xuong district,
Thai Binh province

These challenges are likely to become more acute under climate change.
Several government ministries have noted in the past 10 years, natural disasters
have tended to be more unpredictable with an increase in frequency, intensity, and
type. Economic costs of this damage are likely to increase in the future, and
demonstrate the need for better understanding of how low-cost methods for
adaptation to extreme floods can be developed.

The 2008 Flood in Chuong My district. For the residents living in the flood
diversion zone, the 2008 flood was the worst they had ever experienced. Eight
communes of Chuong My, which are located on the left bank of Bui River, were

6
flooded, with Nam Phuong Tien and Tien Tien communes the most flooded areas,
accounting for more than one tenth of the total area of Chuong My district (field
survey, 2009). The water level was lower than that of the last great flood in 1971, but
the 2008 flood caused worse damage as villagers explained that they now have more
to lose than their parents in the past.

During the 2008 event, 318 out of 498 households in Tien Tien hamlet were
flooded and all of the households in Nhan Ly were flooded. More than 4,000 livestock
were killed. According to village leaders, the loss in aquaculture was even more
serious. Total loss for Tien Tien hamlet was estimated at 10 billion Vietnam Dong.
There was also one death reported. The 2008 event took place because the local
people were not cautious, the head of Tien Tien hamlet said. According to him the
villagers were more on alert in the past as floods and typhoon occurred frequently.
But since the Da Reservoir was made in 1982 there had been no major flood, and no
need to use the Day river diversion, so the villagers had let down their guard and
were not well prepared when the floods did come. In terms of impacts of the 2008
flood, the whole of Nhan Ly hamlet of Nam Phuong Tien commune was flooded for
one month and 318 out of 498 households in Tien Tien hamlet of Tan Tien commune
were flooded. Water ran into the houses of over 50% of the total studied households
and flooded at the level of over 1m high. Only 4% of the studied households were not
flooded in their homes during the event. The largest number of households received
over 1 meter of water into their.

Figure 4. The headman of Nhan Ly village shows where the flood waters rose to in
2008

The 2003 flood in Kien Xuong province. The climate event that caused the
most serious damage in Kien Xuong province is the flood of 2003. Heavy rains from
the 10th of September to the 14th brought severe floods throughout effected
provinces including Nghe An, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, Lao Cai, and Ha Tinh, with both
the Song Con and Thai Binh Rivers over flooding in several areas. 15 people were
reported dead, and 31,000 km2 were affected. The flood magnitude was 2.8. The
total area of rice cultivation affected by inundation exceeded 120,000ha; of which
60,000ha was in Thai Binh Province (half of this area was totally destroyed). The

7
damage caused to aquatic production was also large. $38 million in property losses
were reported.

In Kien Xuong’s Tra Giang and Quoc Tuan communes, large rain events such
as the one in 2003 cause a rise in the water level in the nearby Tra Ly River and in
low-lying areas of the communes. Since these communes lies next to a long sea
dyke and with low geography, especially in agricultural areas, the communes are
frequently suffering from floods, storms and inundation. While this area is usually
flooded and waterlogged every year, the severity of damage to crops depends on the
duration of water-logging. When the water level of the Tra Ly river is higher than the
water level in villages and fields, the dike overtops and even pumping stations cannot
prevent the problem. The drainage system canals function very poorly, preventing
water from draining out to the river, as most canals are blocked by water hyacinth
plants which grow very fast due to the richness of fertilizer that is washed out from
the rice fields. Additionally, a number of families that did not have land in the inland
areas of the commune have moved to the dyke area. They have built houses right
next to the dyke, causing landslides, and as a consequence, weakening the dyke.

Nearly 60% of the interviewed households agreed that the 2003 flood event
caused serious damage to their household economy and livelihood. In Kien Xuong,
the number of households that had decreased income from agriculture was fairly high
(95% of the total interviewed households in compared to 44% of households in
Chuong My). The income from agriculture in 2003 decreased 56% in comparison to
the agricultural income of 2002. The reason why the damage was higher in Kien
Xuong is that agriculture was affected by the flood event in Sept 2003 just before the
rice harvest time, causing complete lost of the Summer-Autumn season of rice.

3. AGGRAVATION OF POVERTY THROUGH CLIMATE CHANGE AND

VULNERABILITY
Climate change and climate variability, especially extreme events such as
floods, droughts, and typhoons are likely to worsen poverty in Vietnam in general and
in the RRD in particular. Poor people, especially the poor living in the Red River
depend on agriculture and primary sectors are suffering from crop loss, loss of land,
and climate-related risks caused by climate change. Having limited coping and
adaptive capacity to current climate variability, the poor suffer additional risks and
hardship and climate change makes it hard for them to get out of poverty.

The consequence of floods and storms in the RRD not only includes
damages and destruction of houses or land but also has negative impacts on daily
life of the local people. Damages caused by floods have proved to be the most
serious among other natural disasters in the Delta. Over 100,000 deaths are
attributed to floods in the past 30 years, and the number of people affected
economically is over 3 million. Heavy rains and strong floods also lead to changes
in agricultural production, and prices of everyday foods such as rice and vegetable
often increase highly and unstably during climate events. The increase in market
price is one of the immediate impacts that occur right after every flood. The news of
Vietnam News Agency (on 24th November 2007) reported that there was the highest
ever increase of rice price in the RRD after the flood in various provinces. The price
for 1 kg of rice increased from VND 4,500/kg to VND 5,500/kg. A sharp increase in
prices of materials and labor in agricultural production was blamed for the drastic
jump in rice price. These high price increases have caused food safety problems,
such as speculation in rice, or forcing the farmers to sell young rice (before harvest)
for much lower prices (http://www.kinhtenongthon.com.vn/2007/Nov).

8
 And Oxfam UK predictions show that the impact on spring rice may be more
serious especially in the north where yields are expected to decrease by 17% by
2070 in contrast with the south of the country where yield would decrease by 8%. A
recent World Bank study also shows that climate change has a strong negative
impacts of on change in crop yields in different regions of Vietnam, including an up to
40% decline in production in areas like the Central Coast and Central Highlands.

For the residents living in Chuong My, the 2008 flood was the worst they had
ever experienced. According to the cadres, the biggest loss was in aquaculture.
Either their fish (ducks…) were washed away or got diseases or they could not sell
them due to the flood which blocked roads and left no means of transportation. The
loss was reported at 10 billion Vietnam Dong for a small hamlet like Tien Tien.
Nearly two third of the households also agreed that the flood event of 2008 caused
very serious damage to their aquaculture (see Table 4 ) and thus their household
economics.
Table 4. Value of lost income of main sources in Chuong My due to 2008 flood
Value Agriculture Livestock Aquaculture Other
Total income 795,767,727 2,016,650,769 337,884,906 1,729,607,143
of 2007 (in
VND)
Lost income -175,068,900 -786,493,800 -358,158,000 -242,145,000
(in VND)
% decrease -22% -39% -106% -14%
in 2008
Source: Household survey, 2009

The villagers in Kien Xuong also suffered serious loss from aquaculture. But
the number of households that had decreased income from agriculture was fairly high
(95% of the total interviewed households in compared to 44% of households in
Chuong My) and their lost value in agriculture was also significant (see Table 5). The
income from agriculture in 2003 decreased 56% in comparison to the agricultural
income of 2002. The reason why the damage was higher in Kien Xuong is that
agriculture was affected by the flood event in Sept 2003 just before the rice harvest
time, causing complete lost of the Summer-Autumn season of rice.

Table 5. Value of lost income in Kien Xuong due to 2003 flood event
Value Agriculture Livestock Aquaculture Other
Total income 721,669,000 1,004,219,231 275,675,108 1,505,000,000
of 2002 (in
VND)
Lost income -404,134,640 -261,097,000 -252,846,000 -15,050,000
(in VND)
% decrease -56% -26% -92% -1%
in 2003
Source: Household survey, 2009

When we looked at this loss in the aspect of poor versus rich households, we
found that in both cases, the rich people seemed to have much greater loss in terms
of absolute value compared to the poor (Table 6). The rich household loss in
livestock (including aquaculture), for example, was almost 7 times bigger than that of
the poor. But when we looked at how significant the loss was to the whole household
picture, we found that the flood had caused much more adverse impacts on the poor.
The percentage of loss was much greater to the poor than the rich. For example, the

9
poor lost 65% of their income from livestock while the rich lost 35%. Regarding crop
damage, the poor lost 70% of their income while the rich lost 33%.
Table 6. HH sensitivity to economic damage from floods in the Red River Delta
HH Time to Crop Property Livestock Relative Relative
recover damage damage (including Livestock Cropping
(days) (absolute) aquaculture damage damage
) damage % %
(absolute)
Poor (n=93) 367 1,666,495 1,638,387 868,186 -65% -70.5%
Middle 298 1,449,141 281,739 1,429,326 -31% -37 %
(n=92)
Rich (n=93) 458 3,572,817 2,430,430 5,352,248 -35% -33%
Significance * (p=.034) (p-.120) **(p=.000) (p=312) **
(p=0.001)
CRES 2009, unpublished data

But it should be noted here that wealthier households had higher amounts of
damage in absolute terms because they often invested in more risky economic
schemes (i.e. aquaculture ponds, large flocks of ducks, etc). As a result, it actually
took the rich longer to recover from floods than middle income or poor households.
As a result, it actually took the rich longer to recover from floods than middle income
or poor households (see Table 6). At the same time, the poor were also vulnerable
because they had fewer options to protect and evacuate their homes. Only middle-
income households seemed to be less vulnerable to climate damage than others.

Poverty relates to vulnerability and the sensitivity of livelihoods to risks

because it structures access to entitlements and resources. For example, those who
are poor may live farther away from good quality natural resources, have little ability
to absorb risk, and have trouble recovering once a risk happens (DFID 2004). The
poor tend to have less diversity of income sources, and less access to credit to fill in
income gaps, which likely increases their risk of disaster when one of their sources is
strongly affected by climate. Vulnerability to shocks, whether they be climate or
otherwise (such as health or unemployment shocks) have long been identified as one
of the major challenges for the poor in Vietnam (Poverty Task Force 2002). While
the poor are not necessarily the only people impacted by climate risks, they tend to
have less resilience, such as less access to insurance, and less ability to rebuild or
move away from affected areas. They are more likely to live in shoddy or
substandard housing that is vulnerable to climate events and be more exposed to
health hazards because of the occupations available to them (Few and Pham 2010).
Given that households in recent surveys (such as Oxfam 2008 and World Bank
2009) already cited weather as one of their primary vulnerability and risk factors, the
rise in extreme weather events that is likely in the next 50 years should be a source
of great concern. Recent successes in poverty reduction in Vietnam have the
potential to be undermined by the effects of climate change.

4. CONSTRAINTS TO MORE EFFECTIVE ADAPTATION DUE TO INACTION

Many problems will need to be addressed to deal with future forecasts for
flood scenarios. These include both technological and infrastructure investments,
along with policy changes and human adaptive capacity. For example, in terms of
infrastructure, the dyke systems (including river dykes and sea dykes) in RRD were
built a long time ago and are substandard. According to Tran Tien Khanh and Nguyen
Khoa Dieu Le (2001), the dykes were built on soft soils with earth material taken from
local area. This is against the standards which regulate that soil for dyke

10
construction must be taken from elsewhere, thus making the current dyke system
vulnerable. The average height of dykes is relatively low, ranging from 6-8 m. Some
parts are located right at the river bank; some parts have a height that is lower than
the river water. For example, the dyke along Thai Binh river is not high enough, and
in the flood season, the water level inside the dyke is 3-6m higher than that outside
the dyke. This causes high pressure on the dyke and its foundation. In 1945, 1969
and 1996, the water level was higher than 13m and it broke the dyke. There are also
many lakes along the dykes, making water drainage more difficult, including drainage
of flood water. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) have
invested in improvement of the dyke foundation, strengthening and retaining wall
construction at the places where dyke expansion is not possible, growing grass and
planting trees on top of the dykes to retain waves and encourage waterproofing.

Another major problem is the lack of floodplain planning. In some provinces, a

major part of farming land has been converted into urban land for industrial and
residential purpose. Thus, the capacity for flood drainage, which was originally
designed for agricultural land, is no longer efficient. The Deputy Prime Minister, Mr.
Nguyen Sinh Hung, pointed out that the flood in November 2008 in Hanoi gave a
warning signal for a very poor hydrological system in the Delta. It shows that the
inefficient drainage system causes floods that threaten the dyke systems (Hai Yen,
2008). Flood currents and drainage corridors are narrow due to blockage of river bed
and alluvial plain. Land on both river banks is being used as a residential area,
expanding the river mouth towards the sea. The population residing in the alluvial
plains of the RRD increased to 310,751 persons in 2002. The government has a plan
to clear the river bed and the riparian residential areas, but it is unclear how this will
be implemented, what the costs will be, and how affected populations will be
resettled.

5. ADAPTATION MECHANISM AT COMMUNITY LEVEL FOR THE FLOOD

AFFECTED WETLAND POOR
Households make different choices for adaptation to climate change. Some
actions are taken before, some taken during and some taken after the event take
place. Different households make different choices and the two study sites also
show difference in their people’s choice of adaptation activities.

Diversifying livelihood

The floods cause traumatic damage to the livelihoods of the local people in
the study sites. This is clearly seen in the change of household income after the
event. In the case of Chuong My, since the event occurred in 2008 the baseline year
for income was 2007 and for the case of Kien Xuong the baseline year before the
event was 2002 and the year of the event was 2003. The data form the survey
reveal interesting facts (Table 7). Before the year of the event, on average each
household in Chuong My earned twice as much income as compared with their
counterparts in Kien Xuong. On average each household in both districts earned
almost the same from remittances at VND 0.4 million. In 2007, the average
household in Chuong My earned the most income from livestock (VND 13.5 million
per household) . Meanwhile the average household in Kien Xuong earned the most
income from self-employment business. The next large source of income for the
average household in Chuong My was from government salary at almost VND 2.6
million. The second most important income source in Kien Xuong was also
government salaries, tied with livestock at VND 2.0 million. Income from fish ponds
and self-employment business were the third important sources for the household in
Chuong My at VND 2.2 million. In Kien Xuong, the next large source of income of the

11
 average household was from fish pond and aquaculture. Agriculture was the fourth
important source of income of the average household in both district at VND 1.1
million for Chuong My and VND 1.4 million for Kien Xuong.
Table 7. Household income and change of income after the event
CHUONG MY
Source of Baseline After climate event
income income (2007) % HH with % HH with % HH with
Decrease Same Increase
Agriculture 5,362,145 48% 55% >1%
Livestock 13,547,181 99% 0.01% >1%
Aquaculture 2,281,756 67% 33% 0%
Salary and wage 11,290,134 36% 64% >1%
labor
KIEN XUONG
Source of Baseline After
income income (in 2002) Decrease Same Increase
Agriculture 4,770,247 96% 4% 0%
Livestock 6,573,933 52% 47% >1%
Aquaculture 1,761,166 42% 58% 0%
Salary and wage 6,690,080 18% 80% 2%
labor
Source: Household survey, 2009

Table 7 shows that sources of household income, such as agriculture,

livestock, fish keeping and self-employment business were negatively affected by the
climate event in both districts. However, the degree of damage varies between
sources of income. Other sources, including government salary, waged labor and
remittances were also affected, but to a lesser degree. Livestock was the most
affected income source in both districts (nearly 70%). However, the total income
earned from livestock of the average household in Chuong My was six times that of
the average household in Kien Xuong. The next most affected source of income in
Chuong My and Kien Xuong was agriculture (more than 40%). Income from fish
raising was more affected in Kien Xuong (40%) than it was in Chuong My (more than
30%). Self employment business was equally affected in both districts (more than
30%)

The local people take a number of immediate and longer-term activities to

lessen flood damage. Such adaptation options included changing cropping pattern
(from 3 cropping seasons/year to 2 per year), adjusting crop calendars, diversifying
agricultural production (to groundnuts, forest plantation, animal husbandry, etc), and
migrating to cities to seek for jobs.

Additional crops. Floods have caused changes in the production systems in

the RRD. Significant changes are observed in farming seasons, crop varieties and
yields. Summer-fall crop is now divided into 3 stages: early, medium-term and late
sessions. It starts in May and ends in November. As for early summer-fall crop,
short-term rice varieties such as CR203, Q5, KD18 (with growing term lasts from 105
to 120 days) is applied. For medium and later crops, rice varieties such as Mộc
Tuyền, Bao Thai, and jasmine that grow for longer period of time (at least 125 days)
are applied. Interviewing households and focus groups in the commune show that
the local people plant maize, temperate zone vegetables (such as cabbage,
potatoes, etc) in winter time, when the water level is low and floods rarely occur, local
people. These additional crops become a significant source of household and create

12
non-farm jobs for the local people as well, such as harvest and transportation of the
vegetables to other places. The villagers also said they did not waste their land
when adding this one more crop. The head of Kien Xuong district DARD said these
winter crops have high productivity and they are providing sufficient amount of food
for the RRD and reserve a good amount for exports.

Non-farm activities. Diversification of income sources has been adopted by

a number of households. In a commune of Kien Xuong district, almost all men of 20-
50 years old were engaged in non-farm activities somewhere outside the village (and
we ended up with meeting women and old parents). Nearly half of the surveyed
households (45.6% in Chuong My and 43.6% in Kien Xuong) express their plan to
find non-farm jobs elsewhere to earn money to cover household loss caused by
natural disasters. Given the fact that they are already engaged in lots of non-farm
activities in the neighborhoods, their plans seem to aim at leaving the commune for
long-term low-skilled jobs in urban areas (HCM city or Hanoi). However, this
migration is seen to be as seasonal only; no one from Kien Xuong wants to migrate
to any other places permanently. About five households in Chuong My say they want
to move to other places and these households have relatives residing outside the
commune.

Figure 5. Typical vegetable fields along the Tra Ly river in Kien Xuong on right, and
irrigated rice fields behind the dyke on the far side of the river

Making living conditions more secure

Households conduct various activities to cope with and adapt to climate

change, and in the particular case of events in the RRD, to increasing frequency of
rising water and inundation.

The local villagers said that building permanent houses is the most effective
adaptation option. However, this option is not feasible for the poor. Table 8 below
shows the degree of permanence of house by district. The majority of households
(71%) in Kien Xuong had permanent houses and 28% had semi permanent houses.
Meanwhile in Chuong My more households had semi-permanent houses (51%) than
those had permanent houses (46%). The percentage of those who had not
permanent houses account for a very small number – 3% for Chuong My and only
1% for Kien Xuong.

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 Table 8. Degree of permanence of the house
Status of the house Chuong My Kien Xuong
Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage
Permanent (e.g. all wall
are made of brick or
strong wood) 69 46% 107 71%
Semi permanent (e.g.
part of wall is brick, &
other is wood) 76 51% 42 28%
Not permanent (e.g. no
brick, but only wood or
bamboo or other) 4 3% 1 1%
Total 149 100% 150 100%
Source: Household survey, 2009

With regard to the number of stories 95% of households in both district

Chuong My and Kien Xuong owned one–storied houses. The percentage of
households that had one-stories with an entresol or mezzanine on the roof and two-
storied houses account for a very small number. Only three households (2%) in
Chuong My owned one-storied with entresol houses and in Kien Xuong 4% had them
(See Table 9). Although everyone realizes that having an entresol is very important in
the sense that they could move things up there when the house is flooded, the
majority of respondents said that they could not afford to build one. Many heads of
households expressed their desire to borrow money from the bank to build it, but
were afraid that they could not pay back the loan.

Table 9. House style by district

Number of stories Chuong My Kien Xuong
Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage
One-storied 142 95% 142 95%
One-storied with
entresol 3 2% 6 4%
Two-storied 4 3% 2 1%
Total 149 100% 150 100%
Source: Household survey, 2009

Strengthening houses before the flood events is also a common among

households. Some households used ropes to tie up windows, and some used
bamboo poles to make stands for their banana trees. A number of villagers said they
always identify a place, which is often highest in their house or near their house, to
store food and clothing so that it can stay dry in extreme flood waters. However, not
all the interviewed households took this action; some did not because they were poor
while others did not because they did not think that the events were going to happen.

After the floods, all the households participated in cleaning up activities. They
first cleaned their wells and water tank, yards and then joined their neighbors to clean
up roads and canals to clear water flow. The most common activities taken by the
villagers at Chuong My and Kien Xuong after the events are as follows:

• Treating water sources for the family and cleaning the environment
• Recovering production activities (repairing dams, paddy fields and ponds)
• Repairing/strengthening houses and family damaged items
• Contributing person-days and money to local government to recover disaster
damage

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 • Coping with financial shortage (withdrawing money from savings, selling
assets, borrowing money )

Figure 5. A household builds a two-story addition to their home. This household

stated they were driven to invest in this addition due to the recent flood in Chuong My.

Being asked about the needs, a lot of the villagers and cadres asked for
financial support to improve the local dyke, drainage system, and inter-village roads.
The local dyke system needs consolidation yearly and it is important that such work
has to be done before the flood season comes. Some villagers and leaders
suggested for specific improvements such as installment of a larger volume pump
station, or collection of money to clear up azola in the canals before the typhoon and
flood season comes. One recent advantage has been that the road system in
Chuong My commune was upgraded as a way of responding and adapting to the
occurrence of floods and typhoons. The local cadres explained that this road helps
to evacuate the villagers more efficiently.

Addressing risk forecasts

In Vietnam, each province and district has a hydro-meteorology station. The

local station is obliged to measure and send records on temperature and water
conditions to the provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Development
(DARD) every 10 days. The station is also responsible for keeping records in the
archive temperature and water. The local records are, however, often used for as
reference and sources for the Hydrometeorology Department of Ministry of Natural
Resources and Environment (MARD). Staff of local Department of Natural Resources
and Environment is not capable of conducting analysis to provide warning/forecast to
other institutions in the area.

Most of the interviewed staff said establishment of an early warning system is

not in their mandates. They depend on the regular weather forecasts. Weather
forecast from MARD is the most important source for early warning in the study sites
and it is often distributed in written documents through vertical systems of local

15
institutions. Plans and actions are made in accordance to the warning. For example,
in Thai Binh, depending on the information on the urgent storm heading to red river
delta or the urgent command from SFPCC or when the warning of level 2 and up
sign, all committee members have to be present at their appointed site. When
warning of Level 2 and up, and of huge storms is given, all members of all
committees must be present at sites and units they are in charge of.

At commune level, information on storms and floods prevention and control is

provided to local communities in the form of radio, newspaper, TV, official
documents, telephone and district messenger. However, when floods or storms occur
the power is always out. The communes feel isolated from the rest of the district. The
only way that could reach the community is to send messengers. And this creates
delays in sending the information to the community. When a warning of Level 3 and
up and of huge storms is given, all members of steering committees and sub-
committee from the commune must be present at sites and units they are in charge
of. The commune steering committee’s finance is estimated by the commune PC
based on the number of population and the natural characteristics of the commune.
After any storm event a committee is established to evaluate damaged caused by the
event, which sends the damage report to the district for compensation from the
district.

At household level, most of the villagers in both Chuong My and Kien Xuong
said they received warning before the floods took place in their areas. There is a
difference, though, in the number of people who said “yes” or “no” to the question if
they received any warning about the floods. In Chuong My only one fifth of the
interviewees said they did not receive any warning in advance, whereas one third of
the Kien Xuong interviewees were very affirmative about the fact that they did not
know any thing about the flood until it came. The fact that the flood that took place in
Chuong My (Hanoi) in 2008 followed a fierce 2-day rain and it happened in the
capital city so the media released forecast and news about it frequently. The
inundation in Kien Xuong (Thai Binh), on the other hand, was not so alarming. Thus,
the news about the event was not extensive.

The villagers claimed a number of sources for warnings and they listed
relatives, neighbors, national government, local government, NGO, broadcast and
print media (radio/TV/newspaper) and some other sources. Local government and
mass media seem to be the most effective sources in the sense that more people
received news and warnings about the events from these sources (compared to
other). In Kien Xuong, one third (36%) of the interviewees claimed they received
warnings from the commune People’s Committee and hamlet cadres for at least 3
hours to at most 8 days before the event took place. In Chuong My, nearly half
(43%) of the interviewed villagers reported that they were given warnings by their
local commune and village cadres for at least 1 hour to at most 8 days. But quite a
few of them said they got the warning 1 day (24.8%) or 2 days (14%) before the
event came.

The villagers were quick to react to the warnings, yet, it took them quite some
time. In Chuong My, most of the villagers took 4-6 hours (37%) to move rice, clothing
and some other essential belongings to another places. The villagers who had to
evacuate livestock took more time, from half a day (7.4%) to 2 days (17.4%). In Kien
Xuong, the villagers either spent 3 hours (13.2%) or more time (up to 3 days – 2.6%)
to respond. As mentioned earlier that the event in Thai Binh was not as drastic as in
Chuong My, the Thai Binh villagers spent less time on evacuating their household
belongings.

16
 Figure 6. River diversions often lack strong dikes, and can easily overflow
into neighboring fields

6. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Long term adaptation options / activities such as changes in housing styles
(concrete, 2 story houses); diversification of farm incomes; change in crops and
varieties grown, engagement in non-farm activities… are very limited in terms of
engaged households as well as types of activities. There have been very few ‘hard
adaptation’ measures taken by individual households, such as to protect their
farmland from flood by building small impoundments or drainage systems.

Longer term adaptation options are lacking, both at the household level and
policy and responses by government authorities. There are limited adaptation
responses at either the household or the government level that either address the
drivers of overall vulnerability or ones that directly confront climate change
processes.

Incorporation of climate forecasts is needed immediately in economic and

social planning at local level (province, district and commune). For example, future
settlement developments and land planning should concentrate on areas safe from
flooding or allow effective adaptation strategies (e.g. convert paddy land into
aquaculture land if needed).

Linkages between adaptation policy and existing sectoral policies need to be

made explicit, and require close cooperation among competing institutions. More
studies need to be undertaken to explore the impact of sector policies, like the
promotion of single crop farming, rather than diversification, on the vulnerability of
different types of communities to climate changes. New policies should be measured
up against such climate vulnerabilities to ensure they do not exacerbate existing
problems.

Adaptation strategy for both households and policy levels need to include
both “soft” and “hard” options. Such distinguishing is necessary, as the government
tends to focus attention on the hard adaptation options: those that are more
expensive, more likely to attract donor funding, but variable to climate impacts while
households tend to choose “soft” (behavior) options which are simple and not costly.
As of yet, however, there is no strong advocacy lobby to put these soft options on the
table.

17
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