© New Paradigm Consulting 2003

New Paradigm Consulting

Co-creating the Future
An Approach to Strategic Planning
May 2003
© New Paradigm Consulting 2003

environment and the future. its the organisation. its environment and the future.Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections The Goal: The Goal: The future To increase awareness about To increase awareness about the organisation. Strategic options (Exploring our future possibilities) Scenarios (Imagining the future) Increasing awareness The organisation Co-evolution (Discovering our place & relationships) The business ecosystem © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections The organisation  Culture  What are the patterns of thinking & behaviour which characterise the organisation?  Is change needed?  Competencies  What is the organisation distinctively good at?  Do these give competitive advantage?  What needs to be developed? © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Entrepreneurial Phase The The Company Customers Growth Phase The Company The centre of gravity The Customers Success Phase The Company The centre of gravity The Customers The centre of gravity © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections A Business Ecosystem The environment The environment Governments Governments Standards bodies Standards bodies New entrants New entrants Competitors Competitors Supplier’s suppliers Supplier’s suppliers Suppliers Suppliers Organisation Organisation Substitutes Substitutes Customers Customers Customer’s customers Customer’s customers Stakeholders Stakeholders International law International law © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Technology. Politics)  Customers  Markets  Competitors  Five forces © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 . Economics. Environment.Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Mapping the ecosystem “Our current relationships”  STEEP (Society.

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections The Future  The future is inherently unpredictable The purpose of planning is not to predict the future but to increase the possibility space for the organisation  The future is co-created We are neither passive victims of forces beyond our control nor masters of our destiny © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Strategic options “Our future possibilities”  Key strategic issues  What are the real areas which affect our business?  (E. service. channel.g. market)  Formulate key decision areas  Where do decisions need to be made?  Create clusters of options  Discover coherent strategies  Check against distinctive competencies © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections MARKETS Strategic option generation: one approach Competence Existing SERVICES New Existing PROTECT/BUILD •Withdrawal •Consolidation •Market penetration SERVICE DEVELOPMENT •Existing competencies •New competencies MARKET DEVELOPMENT New •New segments •New territories •New uses DIVERSIFICATION •Existing competencies •New competencies Development © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections “Imagining the future” Scenarios  Identify key driving forces  Choose most uncertain/most significant  Develop alternatives  ‘Flesh out’ with narrative © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Note which key external drivers are both important & uncertain Identify key driving forces High Driver 2 Driver 1 Driver 5 Importance Driver 3 Driver 4 Low Low Uncertainty High © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Formulate ‘yes-no’ questions Driver 2 Yes No Yes Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Driver 5 No Scenario 3 Scenario 4 © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Develop future time line for each scenario 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007  Map out critical events leading to the unfolding of this scenario enabling you to:  Scan for triggers which will alert you to the scenario  Rehearse your strategic responses to the events of the scenario © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Add learning points and Option 3 actions required. S O S O S O W T W T W T P M I P M I P M I S O S O S O W T W T W T de Bono’s Option 2 Plus/Minus/ Interesting is also good.Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Test each option against each scenario. Actions © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 . Scenario 1 Option 1 Cross-impact matrix Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Learning SWOT analysis is one useful tool.

etc.  Organisation workshops  Distinctive competencies & competitive advantage  Explore culture © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 . customers.Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Typical process  Structured conversations  Speak with as wide a range of people as possible  Ecosystem workshops  Look out before looking in  STEEP.

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Typical process  Develop strategic options  Develop scenarios  Cross-impact competencies against scenarios  Prepare change agenda © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Are scenarios the answer?  Do scenarios help? Shell used them effectively IBM & General Motors did not  Why not? Diversity Is there enough diversity in planning process? Culture Is the culture open to new thinking & doing? © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Strategic intent  Strategic intent must inform all of organisational life  Strategic intent must take account of the realities of the organisation and its environment  Strategic intent is more important than ‘strategy’ © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Planning is not about…  Planning is not about predicting the future  Planning is not about writing a detailed road map into the future  Planning is not about a few people writing a vision statement & then getting ‘buy-in’ from everyone else © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

Overview The Organisation Business Ecosystem The Future The Process Reflections Planning is about…  Planning is about learning  Planning is about increasing the possibilities for the organisation  Planning is about discovering how fit the organisation is for its environment  Planning is about discovering and telling compelling stories about the future © New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

© New Paradigm Consulting 2003 .

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