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Economic DataWatch - Employment

Economic DataWatch - Employment

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The Employment Situation

November 3, 2010

1555 NorthPark Drive #102 Weston, Florida 33326 www.horowitzandcompany.com
p 954-349-0800 f 954-349-1414

Unemployment

Unemployment Rate (%)
12 10 8 8%
6

Unemployment
11%
10% 9%

Unemployment Rate (%)

9.8%

7%
4 2

6% 5% 4%

0

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Change in Payrolls

Non-Farm MoM (000's)
Private MoM (000's)

Manufacturing MoM (000's)
500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800

Average Hourly Work Week

Avg. Weekly Hours 35

34.8

Non-Farm Payrolls (000's)

34.6 34.4 34.2
34

33.8 33.6 33.4 33.2
33

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Average Hourly Earnings
0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%

Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY%)

Avg. Hourly Earnings (MoM%)

Productivity and Costs

Unit Labor Costs QoQ% Non-Farm Productivity QoQ% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10%

4.5% 4.0% 3.5%

MoM %

0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2%

2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

YoY %

3.0%

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

12/3/2010

Employment Charts

Unemployment Claims

Initial Claims (Thousands)
520

Unemployment Claims
7000
6500

Initial Claims (Thousands) Continuing Claims (Thousands) 700
650

Continuing Claims

500 480 460 440 420 400

5500
5000

550
500

4500 4000 3500
3000

450 400 350
300

2500 2000

250 200

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

ADP's Change in Private Payrolls

ADP Payrolls
400

Change in Payrolls (MoM)

BLS - Non-Farm Payrolls

ADP Payrolls

400

200 200 0
-200

-200
-400

-400 -600
-800

-600
-800

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Employment / Population Ratio

Employment / Population Ratio (%) 66 64 62 60
58 56

Non-Farm Payroll Diffusion

Non-Farm Diffusion
80

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010
1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010

54 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010
1998 1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2008

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Job Hires YoY%

12/3/2010

Employment Charts

Thousands

0

Initial Claims

6000

600

JOLTS Job Reports

Job Hires YoY% Job Separations YoY% Job Openings YoY%

Employment Prospects
4.5
4

Challenger Job Cuts YoY%
700
600 500

3.5 3
2.5

400 300 200
100

2 1.5 2002 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010
2002 2004 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0 -100 -200

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Employment Cost Index

ECI YoY%
4.5 4

Unemployment Claims

Extended Benefits Emergency Benefits Continuing Claims

3.5 3 2.5
2

10
8

6
4

1.5 1 0.5
0

2
0

2002

2003

2003

2004

2004

2005

2005

2006

2006

2007

2007

2008

2008

2009

2009

2010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

2010

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Labor Force Participation Rate

Labor Force Participation 68% 66%
64%

Labor Force Participation Rate

Labor Force Participation 68.0% 67.5%
67.0% 66.5%

62% 60%
58%

66.0% 65.5%
65.0%

56%
54%

64.5% 64.0%
63.5%

52%
1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008

63.0%

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

BLS Private MoM (000's)
12/3/2010 Employment Charts

Millions

12

Comparison of Private Payrolls

BLS Private MoM (000's) ADP Payrolls MoM (000's)
400 300 200
100 0 -100 -200 -300

Underemployment
20% 18%

U-6 Underemployment Rate (%)

17.0% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4%

-400 -500 -600 -700 -800

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

12/3/2010

Employment Charts

1555 NorthPark Drive #102 Weston, Florida 33325 p 954-349-0800 f 954-349-1414

Notice and Disclaimer This material is provided for information only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument. This material is not a complete analysis of all material facts respecting any issuer, industry or security or of your investment objectives, parameters, needs or financial situation, and therefore is not a sufficient basis alone on which to base an investment decision. Horowitz & Company and its affiliates may have positions (long or short), effect transactions or make markets in securities or financial instruments mentioned herein (or options with respect thereto), or provide advice or loans to, or participate in the underwriting or restructuring of the obligations of, issuers mentioned herein. Moreover, a Horowitz & Company trading desk may have acted on the basis of this material. The information contained herein is as of the date and time referenced above and Horowitz & Company does not undertake any obligation to update such information. All market prices, data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments. Transactions involving financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

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