‘Factors

Affecting
Housing
Shortage
in India’
PROJECT FINANCE
MANAGEMENT

DIVISHA JINDAL
MBEM II YR.
SPA, NEW DELHI
PROJECT FINANCE MANAGEMENT ‘Factors Affecting Housing Shortage in India’ 2010

1.1 INTRODUCTION:
Housing in India varies greatly and reflects the socio-economic mix of its vast
population.

With modernization there is a small but growing section of nuclear families in urban areas.
This rise in number rise in number of nuclear families is a growing trend and contributing
well to the increase in housing shortage.

1.2 HOUSING SHORTAGE IN INDIA

There is around 24.7 million-house shortage in India on an average (National Building
Organization, NBO & NHHP 2007). Most of the shortage (99%) is for the lower income
group (LIG) and economically weaker section (EWS) as per NBO and NHHP.
“India is facing a shortage of up to 70 million residential units, as high economic growth
and rapid urbanization spurred overall demand for housing”, says World Bank, in a
report titled 'Expanding Housing Finance to the Underserved South Asia'.
The report pointed out that it might be "commercially viable" in India to build housing
units for 23-28 million households -- representing 35 to 45 per cent of country's urban
population -- whose monthly household incomes are in the range of Rs 5,000-11,000.
"High economic growth coupled with rapid urbanization and a rising middle class have
created considerable demand for housing and housing finance in South Asia," World
Bank said.
Also, "According to the estimates made by the technical group constituted by the
ministry for assessment of urban housing shortage at the end of the Tenth Five Year
Plan, the total housing shortage in the country is 24.71 million," union minister for
housing and urban Poverty Alleviation Kumari Selja informed Rajya Sabha in a written
reply to a question. Further, an additional requirement of 1.82 million dwelling units
has been projected for the 11th Plan, bringing the total housing requirement during the
11th Plan Period to 26.53 Million dwelling units.

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PROJECT FINANCE MANAGEMENT ‘Factors Affecting Housing Shortage in India’ 2010

1.2.1 Background
The Housing and Building statistics are necessary for the formulation, execution and
evaluation of housing policies and building programs which constitute an integral part of
the overall social and economic plans of the country. At the central level, the National
Buildings Organization (NBO), which is an attached office under Ministry of Housing
and Urban Poverty Alleviation, is the only Organization which collects, maintains and
disseminate the authentic data on housing and related infrastructure statistics. It also
caters to the need of the planners, policy makers and researchers in the field of housing
statistics. The housing and building statistics are also necessary for national accounts
purposes.
The data on urban households and housing stock from various Population Censuses are
presented in the table given below.

The census data over the previous five decades reveals that the urban population has
grown by 2.7 to 3.8% annually due to natural increase of population as a consequence of
the birth rate being higher than the death rate; and migration from rural to urban areas in
search of livelihood.
1.2.2 Housing condition in urban areas
The 11th Plan document while examining the issue of magnitude of urban housing notes
that the requirement of urban housing is linked to emerging pattern of growth of
cities/towns, and also the present settlement status and quality which may require up
gradation. Cities and towns which are growing at faster rate need to develop and deliver

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PROJECT FINANCE MANAGEMENT ‘Factors Affecting Housing Shortage in India’ 2010

a faster and greater supply of housing. The need for additional housing, for increasing
poorer sections does not get translated in an economic demand due to non affordability
by the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS)/Low Income Group (LIG) sections, thus
leading to a sizeable number of urban population resorting to squatting on
government/municipal lands, leading to creation of slums.

The chronological situation of housing shortage is given below:

Housing Shortage Analysis in India

Above table shows, that housing shortage in absolute number is not decreasing. i.e.
existing gap in housing stock from 81, 91 to 2001 could not be filled up by conventional
housing supply system.
Whereas, housing shortage in urban areas is increasing. i.e. demand for new housing is
growing at higher pace in urban areas and supply is not adequate.

Absolute housing shortage: Urban, Rural and Total

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PROJECT FINANCE MANAGEMENT ‘Factors Affecting Housing Shortage in India’ 2010

Share of Population not having livable house: rural and urban

Estimation of Urban Housing Requirements for the XIth Plan :

The housing shortage for the previous census years (1961-2001) was worked out by
National Building Organization (NBO) and the same for 2002 was worked out by the
Working Group for the 10th Plan. The urban housing shortage from 1961 to 2002 as
estimated by NBO & 10th plan working group is given in Table below:
Urban Housing Shortage
Year Housing Shortage
in Million D.Us
1961 3.60
1971 3.00
1981 7.00
1991 8.20
2002 8.89
Source: 10th Plan Document

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PROJECT FINANCE MANAGEMENT ‘Factors Affecting Housing Shortage in India’ 2010

1.3 FACTORS AFFECTING HOUSING SHORTAGE IN INDIA:

Housing shortage in India has been estimated on the basis of the number of households
including homeless households, available housing stock, acceptable housing stock,
aspects of congestion and overcrowding. The population census provides background
information on households.

Adopting a similar methodology as used in the 10th Plan Working Group Report, the
primary housing shortage at the beginning of the XI Plan period i.e. 2007, has been
estimated, by obtaining the difference between the projected number of households and
the estimated housing stock. Assuming that the entire Kutcha housing stock needs to be
upgraded to semi-pucca, these kutcha houses have also been included in calculating the
shortage. In addition to this, the following factors have been considered:

Congestion factor: The congestion factor is taken as 19.11% of the acceptable housing
stock (pucca and semi-pucca) as per estimates of Technical Group on Estimation of
Housing Shortage (2006). On this count, the additional housing required at the beginning
of XI plan period is estimated to be 12.67 million units.

Obsolescence factor: The obsolescence factor as per the estimates of Technical Group
on Estimation of Housing Shortage (2006) is 3.60% of the acceptable housing stock and
the total obsolete urban housing stock estimate is 2.39 million units.

The total shortage at the beginning of the XI Plan has been estimated to be 24.71 million
units, as can be seen from Table below. The quantum of Kutcha houses that needed up
gradation is estimated to be 2.18 million.

Housing Shortage As on
2007

1.Households (Mn) 66.30

2.Housing Stock (Mn) 58.83

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PROJECT FINANCE MANAGEMENT ‘Factors Affecting Housing Shortage in India’ 2010

2.1 Pucca 47.49

2.2 Semi Pucca 09.16

2.3 Kutcha 02.18

3. Excess of HHs over Housing Stock 07.47

(Mn) (1 – 2)

4. Congestion factor (%) 19.11

4.1Congestion in Hhs. (Mn) 12.67

5. Obsolescence factor (%) 3.60

5.1Obsolescence in Hhs. (Mn) 02.39

6. Upgradation of Kutcha (Mn) (2.3) 02.18

7. Total Housing Shortage (3+4.1+5.1+6) 24.71

Estimation of New Urban Housing units during XI Plan

The Table shown below gives the estimation of new additions of Pucca, Semi-Pucca
and Kutcha housing units during the XI plan period. The total new construction of pucca
houses is estimated to be of the order of 6.00 million units and the up
gradation requirement of semi-pucca houses and kutcha houses to pucca houses is of the
order of 0.89 million and 0.38 million units respectively. Therefore, the total new
additions to the housing stock during the 11th plan period are estimated to be 7.27 million
units.

Total Requirement of Housing during the Eleventh Plan Period

New Requirement

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PROJECT FINANCE MANAGEMENT ‘Factors Affecting Housing Shortage in India’ 2010

Households

- Pucca 6.00

- Semi Pucca 0.89

- Kutcha 0.38

Total Housing Stock 7.27

Estimation of Total Urban Housing Requirement during the XI Plan Period

Combining the housing shortage at the beginning of the 11 th plan period and the
additional requirements during the 11th plan period, the total requirement of urban
housing during the XI Plan period (2007-2012) works out to be 31.98 million units as
shown in Table below :

Housing Requirement during XI Plan Period As on 2012

1. Housing Shortage as on 2007 (Million) 24.71

2. Households (Million) 75.01

3. Pucca Houses (Million) 53.49

4. Semi Pucca Houses (Million) 10.05

5. Katcha Houses (Million.) 2.56

6. Addition to households (Million.) 8.71

7. Addition to housing stock 7.27

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PROJECT FINANCE MANAGEMENT ‘Factors Affecting Housing Shortage in India’ 2010

8. Up gradation of Katcha Houses (Million.) 0.38

10. Additional requirement (Million.) (6-7+8) 1.82

11. Total requirement (Million units) 26.53

Thus it is estimated by the 11th Plan Working Group that taking the business as usual
scenario, the total shortage of dwelling unit at the beginning of the 11 th Plan period i.e.
2007 will be 24.71 million units. The housing shortage during the plan period (2007-
2012) including the backlog has been estimated to be 26.53 million units.

Key Issues in non-Achievement of Housing Supply in Public Plan &

Policies
Based on the study of performance during 5 year plans the key issues are identified as
below and a marking has been done based on the analysis during the specific plan period.
Major issues have been enumerated from 20 to 10 according to qualitative assessment
during plan period. Accumulating the whole, speedier housing system and affordability
resembles the most prominent issues, which need to be addressed.

Analysis of major issues and barriers in mass public housing delivery

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PROJECT FINANCE MANAGEMENT ‘Factors Affecting Housing Shortage in India’ 2010

CONCLUSION
In the developing countries the housing problem are manifold and key factor in
influencing quality living. The mainstream formal housing needs a faster production
system of housing maintaining quality of houses and economy to overcome the huge
shortage. Government’s role has been changed to enabler from provider during last
couple of decades and that is reflected in national plans. Overall 12% household (H/H) do
not have livable house. Existing housing supply mechanism could not fulfill only 15% on
an average of total housing need per decade including the backlog and additional need for
population increase.
National Housing and Habitat Policy (NHHP) mentioned about the necessity of a faster
housing supply and focused on prefabricated system built housing. Scope for appropriate
prefabricated building system to fulfill the housing shortage in India must be reassessed
in present context.
The growing concentration of the people in the urban areas is an obvious thing, which is
visible in the urbanization trend through out the world. On the other hand, a great portion
of population lives in non-livable houses.

LIST OF REFERENCES
 Press Release on January 13, 2010 by the Press Information Bureau, Government of
India
 Report of the technical group [11th five year plan: 2007-12] on “Estimation of urban
housing shortage”
 Report of the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12) Working Group on Urban Housing with
Focus on Slums by the Government of India Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty
Alleviation
 Research paper on Mass-Industrialized Housing to Combat Consistent Housing
Shortage in Developing Countries: Towards an Appropriate System for India by Ar.
Uttam K. Roy1, Dr. Madhumita Roy, Prof. Subir Saha

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