SUMMER TRAINING PROJECT REPORT

UNDER

PRABATH FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED
ON

“Study of Fluctuations of Indian Stock Market”

SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULLFILMENT OF THE REQUIRMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION OF THE RAJASTHAN TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY, KOTA.

SUPERVISED BY:Mr. S. P. Kabra

SUBMITTED BY :Rahul Jajoo

FACITLITY SUPERVISOR:Ms. Shilpi Kuntal

SUBMITTED TO :DEPARTMENT OF MANAGENENT STUDIES, SWAMI KESHVANAND INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, MANAGEMENT & GRAMOTHAN. JAIPUR

2008-2010

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Certificate

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Acknowledgement

“The completion of any project depends upon the co-operation, coordination and combined efforts of several resources of knowledge, inspiration & energy.” Words fall short acknowledging immense support lent to me yet I will try to give full credit to the deserver's. My sincere thanks goes to Mr. Vikas Shrotriya (HOD DMS) giving me an opportunity to discover more knowledge. I am also thankful to Mr. S. P. Kabra (Director,Prabhat financial services) for his support, guidance and cooperation throughout to accomplish this project also expressing deep sense of gratitude to my Project guide, Ms. Shilpi Kuntal (Lecturer) for her valuable guidance, continuous encouragement and tremendous patience in discussing my problems, have been of the greatest help in bringing out my task in present shape. I am equally grateful to all my other teachers for their complete support. It would be unfair on my part if I do not thank my colleagues for their continuous help without which this work could never have been accomplished. They made me realize the importance of teamwork and also the leadership skills. I am grateful to all of them standing with me and supporting me in this project.

( Rahul Jajoo )

Preface
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Contents 4 . The study of fluctuations of stock market makes the investor aquatinted with the factor affecting the investment and Stock prices can be volatile and some analysts argue that this volatility is excessive. This study tells the factor which directly or indirectly affects the market and some basic information not only share market but also other market such as derivatives or commodity market for the new investors or the students who have some interest in stock market. this is the study about the last two year fluctuation in stock market which enables the investor in taking decision regarding investment. This is not easy to prove.In the present situation where stock market is going up and down. Companies tend to smooth dividends. since it is difficult to assess certainty about future earnings and dividends. so they will be less volatile than stock prices. it is necessary to invest consciously in the market whatever it is. Volatile stock prices do not have a major impact on consumption and capital spending since there is a good chance that price movements in one direction may be reversed. The objective of selecting the topic is to know about the market trends of the stock market and the information related to the investment for the future investor.

SWOT 5. Core Study 4.2 Duration of the Project 2.1 Title of the Study 2.6 Limitation of Study 3. Abstract 2. Research Methodology 2.3 Objective of Study 2. Bibliography Executive summary 5 . Conclusion 6.4 Type of Research 2.5 Scope of Study 2.1.

clothing and tools. Stock markets have become highly complex markets that allow investors to buy shares in companies or in funds that aggregate companies or industries together. in that the government does not intervene in how the market operates. for the sale or barter of farm produce. A market can be defined as a place where any type of trade takes place. services and/ or information. If there are more buyers than sellers. seven days a week. particularly if the industry is protected by government legislation. governments. with a number of vendors selling the same kinds of products or services. leading to massive money flows constantly changing hands. Some markets are very competitive. virtual marketplaces supported by IT networks such as the internet have become the largest and most liquid. although they often maintain a physical location for buyers. Governments or trade bodies often step in when such distortions undermine the smooth functioning of free markets. Most stock markets today are primarily electronic networks. Markets can appear spontaneously when there are goods or services to be exchanged. or they can be planned and regulated . Although physical markets are still vital. These interactions define demand and supply characteristics and are therefore fundamental to economies. some markets have low or no competition. and information. shopping centers. 6 . Where there are more sellers than buyers. These markets may be distorted if a seller gains monopoly power by managing the majority of supply (or indeed if a buyer develops monophony power by managing demand). These kinds of street markets developed into a whole variety of consumer-oriented markets. Markets are dependent on two major participants – buyers and sellers. the availability of supply will push down prices. supermarkets. Buyers and sellers typically trade goods. such as specialist markets. the increased demand will push up prices. Conversely. Historically. or even virtual markets such as eBay.A market is an environment that allows buyers and sellers to trade or exchange goods. The number of buyers and sellers involved will have a direct bearing on the price of the good or service to be sold. markets were physical meeting places where buyers and sellers gathered together to trade. With the rising price of oil and food. and has become known as the law of supply and demand. banks. The currency markets are the largest continuously traded markets in the world. investors and consumers are buying and selling every currency. Twenty four hours a day. services. sellers and market makers to interact directly.Free markets operate under ‘laissez-fare’ conditions. Markets originally started as marketplaces usually in the center of villages and towns.

Commodities underpin economic activity. cotton. cocoa. Transactions tend to be wholesale with large quantities of goods being transacted at low prices. Albeit it could have been a gamble buying stocks before declaration of election results. and financial commodities such as bonds. meat. So what should a small investor do now? Should he buy stocks or should be selling stocks that he holds. oat. sugar. Commodity markets include: energy (oil. Stock markets are going to be volatile for next few days. Now that's history. soft commodities and grains (wheat. gas. i.This article is a COMPLETE guide to the basics of making money in the stock market! If you are considering investing in the stock market. coffee. coal and increasingly renewable energy sources such as biodiesel). rice. corn. frozen orange juice. you MUST read this article! We have explained all the concepts and talked about all the "myths" that people have about the stock market! INTRODUCTION TO THE ORGANIZATION 7 . it paid off for those who bought. Everyone has seen it and everyone is wishing if he should have buy stocks before this rally. Today. on Tuesday. went till 3oo points down.e.commodity markets are once again under the spotlight. soya beans. then recovered and went up to 500 points up and finally settled for flat closing. Capital goods markets help businesses to buy durable goods to be used in industrial and manufacturing processes. etc). markets opened in red. A number of services can also be associated with these goods.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TITLE OF THE STUDY:8 .

9 .  To know the effect of these fluctuation on the Indian economy. Research can use the scientific method. interpreting. Scientific research is funded by public authorities. It makes practical applications possible. and the development of methods and systems for the advancement of human knowledge on a wide variety of scientific matters of our world and the universe. This research provides scientific information and theories for the explanation of the nature and the properties of the world around us.  To forecast or predict the future trend of stock market which helps in investment. Scientific research relies on the application of the scientific method.“Study of fluctuations of Indian stock market” DURATION OF THE PROJECT:. Scientific research can be subdivided into different classifications according to their academic and application disciplines. by charitable organizations and by private groups. TYPE OF RESEARCH Research Research is defined as human activity based on intellectual application in the investigation of matter.  To make the investor aware about the factors which may affect their investment.  To get the knowledge of other markets such as commodity market and derivatives.  To know the ups and downs of stock market of last two years. but need not do so. including many companies. The primary purpose for applied research is discovering. a harnessing of curiosity.45 days OBJECTIVE OF STUDY  To know the basic terminology of stock market.

However. DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH Descriptive research is used to obtain information concerning the current status of the phenomena to describe "what exists" with respect to variables or conditions in a situation.In this project the research type used is descriptive because this research is the most commonly used and the basic reason for carrying out descriptive research is to identify the cause of something that is happening. For instance. this research could be used in order to find out what age group is buying a particular brand of cola. to developmental studies which seek to determine changes over time. Qualitative descriptive research also emphasizes on what is. the correlation study which investigates the relationship between variables. The methods involved range from the survey which describes the status quo. Quantitative descriptive research emphasizes on what is. analyze and interpret the present conditions. record. Descriptive research can be of two types: i. whether a company’s market share differs between geographical regions or to discover how many competitors a company has in their marketplace. SCOPE OF STUDY  Derivatives  Sebi  Stock exchange  Commodity market  Stock market 10 . but makes use of non-quantitative research methods in describing the conditions of the present. whoever is conducting the research must comply with strict research requirements in order to obtain the most accurate figures/results possible. if the research is to return useful results. and makes use of quantitative methods to describe.

3. In this research study also their were some limiting factors. Time Period: Time period was one of the main factor as only one month was allotted and the topic covered in research has a wide scope. this puts a question mark on the reliability of this data. Data Collection: The most important constraint in this study was data collection as Secondary data was selected for study. which a very important factor of this study as conclusion has been derived from this secondary data only. Accuracy: The facts and findings of the data cannot be accepted as accurate to some extent as firstly. 4. Securities  Day trading  Factor affecting Indian stock market  Effect on Indian economy LIMITATIONS Limitations are the limiting lines that restrict the work in some way or other. 11 . they refer to the data which have already been collected and analysed by someone else. some of them are as under: 1. Secondly. Secondary data means data that are already available i. Reliability: The data collected in research work was secondary data. because in short period you cannot cover each point accurately. So. it was not possible to cover it in a short span of time. 2. secondary data was collected.e. So. for doing descriptive research time needed to be more.

Function and purpose The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise money. cannot be directly compared to a stock or a fixed income security. The stock market in the United States includes the trading of all securities listed on the NYSE. This is an attractive feature of investing in stocks. compared to other less liquid investments such as real estate. Many such relatively illiquid securities are valued as marked to model.e. a derivative 'bet' on an event occurring is offset by a comparable derivative 'bet' on the event not occurring. European examples of stock exchanges include the London Stock Exchange. The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36.. now part of Euronext. which traditionally refers to an actual value. 12 . Moreover. or raise additional capital for expansion by selling shares of ownership of the company in a public market.Core study Stock market A stock market is a public market for the trading of company stock and derivatives at an agreed price. 11 times the size of the entire world economy. as well as on the many regional exchanges. the NASDAQ. the Deutsche Börse and the Paris Bourse. The liquidity that an exchange provides affords investors the ability to quickly and easily sell securities. because it is stated in terms of notional values. The value of the derivatives market. The total world derivatives market has been estimated at about $791 trillion face or nominal value. the vast majority of derivatives 'cancel' each other out (i.6 trillion US at the beginning of October 2008 .g. these are securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately.). This allows businesses to be publicly traded. e. rather than an actual market price. OTCBB and Pink Sheets.) The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are entities a corporation or mutual organization specialized in the business of bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a listing of stocks and securities together. the Amex.

deposit accounts and other very liquid assets with little risk made up almost 60 percent of households' financial wealth. Statistics show that in recent decades shares have made up an increasingly large proportion of households' financial assets in many countries. insurance investment of premiums. Financial stability is the raison d'être of central banks. An economy where the stock market is on the rise is considered to be an up and coming economy. in Sweden.g. hedge funds. mutual funds. tend to be associated with increased business investment and vice versa. One feature of this development is disintermediation. on the smooth operation of financial system functions. compared to less than 20 percent in the 2000s. A portion of the funds involved in saving and financing flows directly to the financial markets instead of being routed via the traditional bank lending and deposit operations. e. in general. Exchanges also act as the clearinghouse for each transaction. pension funds.History has shown that the price of shares and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity. Relation of the stock market to the modern financial system The financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable transformation. In fact. This eliminates the risk to an individual buyer or seller that the counterparty could default on the transaction.. In the 1970s. meaning that they collect and deliver the shares. and can influence or be an indicator of social mood. and guarantee payment to the seller of a security. The trend towards forms of saving with a higher risk has been accentuated by new rules for most funds and insurance. In this way the financial system contributes to increased prosperity. Rising share prices. has been an important component of this process. Therefore. central banks tend to keep an eye on the control and behavior of the stock market and. The smooth functioning of all these activities facilitates economic growth in that lower costs and enterprise risks promote the production of goods and services as well as employment. permitting a 13 . The general public's heightened interest in investing in the stock market. Share prices also affect the wealth of households and their consumption. either directly or through mutual funds. The major part of this adjustment in financial portfolios has gone directly to shares but a good deal now takes the form of various kinds of institutional investment for groups of individuals. for instance. etc. the stock market is often considered the primary indicator of a country's economic strength and development.

the noise level in the stock market rises. immersed in chat rooms and message boards. With each passing year. This is a quote from the preface to a published biography about the long-term value-oriented stock investor Warren Buffett. in marked contrast to the stability of (government insured) bank deposits or bonds. The following deals with some of the risks of the financial sector in general and the stock market in particular. or have acquired other 'risky' investments (such as 'investment' property. This is something that could affect not only the individual investor or household. and market strategists are all overtaking each other to get investors' attention.000 from seven limited partners consisting of Buffett's family and friends. individual investors.. the United States. financial writers.[4] Buffett began his career with $100. Stock prices fluctuate widely.higher proportion of shares to bonds. i. investors find it increasingly difficult to profit. and people who have turned to investing for their children's education and their own retirement become frightened. such as the European Union. and $105. 14 . Over the years he has built himself a multi-billion-dollar fortune. real estate and collectables).e. This is certainly more important now that so many newcomers have entered the stock market. the trend has been the same: saving has moved away from traditional (government insured) bank deposits to more risky securities of one sort or another. Stock prices skyrocket with little reason. Television commentators. individual investors. are exchanging questionable and often misleading tips. At the same time. only folly. Japan and other developed nations. but also the economy on a large scale. The stock market. and financial risk Riskier long-term saving requires that an individual possess the ability to manage the associated increased risks. Yet. then plummet just as quickly. Similar tendencies are to be found in other industrialized countries. The quote illustrates some of what has been happening in the stock market during the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. analysts. despite all this available information. In all developed economic systems. Sometimes there appears to be no rhyme or reason to the market.

Prior to taking charge as Chairman SEBI. Southern and Western regional offices in New Delhi. The Board comprises[2] Name Mr CB Bhave Designation Chairman SEBI 15 As per CHAIRMAN (S.gov.in SEBI is the Regulator for the Securities Market in India. Organization Structure Chandrasekhar Bhaskar Bhave is the sixth chairman of the Securities Market Regulator. and has Northern. India 1992 India Chairman C B Bhave February 16.Chaired by C B Bhave. Kolkata. He is a former Indian Administrative Service officer of the 1975 batch. it acquired statutory form in 1992 with SEBI Act 1992 being passed by the Indian Parliament. he had served SEBI as a Senior Executive Director.Securities and Exchange Board of India SEBI Bhavan. SEBI is headquartered in the popular business district of Bandra-Kurla complex in Mumbai. 2008 - Total Staff[1] 525 Official Website Website www.sebi. Originally set up by the Government of India in 1988. Maharashtra. Mumbai Headquarters of SEBI Organization Details Headquarters Established Jurisdiction Head Chairman Term Mumbai. .4(1)(a) of the SEBI Act. Eastern. Prior to his stint at NSDL. Chennai and Ahmedabad. he had been the chairman of NSDL (National Securities Depository Limited) ushering in paperless securities.

Ministry of Corporate Affairs Member (S. it conducts investigation and enforcement action in its executive function and it passes rulings and orders in its judicial capacity.4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act.4(1)(b) of the SEBI Act.Mr. 1992) Dr KM Abraham Whole Time Member. 1992) Member (S. There is a Securities Appellate Tribunal which is a three member tribunal and is presently headed by a former Chief Justice of a High court . Though this makes it very powerful. Infosys Functions and Responsibilities SEBI has to be responsive to the needs of three groups. quasi-judicial and quasiexecutive.1992) Mr KP Krishnan Joint Secretary.4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act. Bhopal Whole Time Member. SEBI has three functions rolled into one body quasi-legislative. National Judicial Academy. 16 . A second appeal lies directly to the Supreme Court. Member (S.4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act. 1992) Mr Anurag Goel Dr G Mohan Gopal Mr MS Sahoo Director. SEBI Mr Mohandas Pai Director. 1992) Member (S.4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act. Justice NK Sodhi. Ministry of Finance Secretary. It drafts regulations in its legislative capacity. there is an appeals process to create accountability. SEBI 1992) Member (S.4(1)(b) of the SEBI Act. which constitute the market: • • • the issuers of securities the investors the market intermediaries. 1992) Member (S.

This is the usual way that derivatives and bonds are traded. unit trusts. affect the price of stocks (see stock valuation). the quick movement towards making the markets electronic and paperless rolling settlement on T+2 basis). as modern markets are electronic networks. To be able to trade a security on a certain stock exchange. it has to be listed there. A stock exchange is often the most important component of a stock market. There is usually no compulsion to issue stock via the stock exchange itself. Stock exchange A stock exchange. (formerly a securities exchange) is a corporation or mutual organization which provides "trading" facilities for stock brokers and traders. Supply and demand in stock markets is driven by various factors which. Increasingly. stock exchanges are part of a global market for securities. Stock exchanges also provide facilities for the issue and redemption of securities as well as other financial instruments and capital events including the payment of income and dividends. derivatives. which gives them advantages of speed and cost of transactions. SEBI has been active in setting up the regulations as required under law. The securities traded on a stock exchange include: shares issued by companies. The initial offering of stocks and bonds to investors is by definition done in the primary market and subsequent trading is done in the secondary market. Raising capital for businesses 17 . nor must stock be subsequently traded on the exchange.g. to trade stocks and other securities. Such trading is said to be off exchange or over-the-counter.SEBI has enjoyed success as a regulator by pushing systemic reforms aggressively and successively (e. but trade is less and less linked to such a physical place. Usually there is a central location at least for recordkeeping. as in all free markets. pooled investment products and bonds. this may include the following: 1. The role of stock exchanges Stock exchanges have multiple roles in the economy. Trade on an exchange is by members only.

Corporate governance By having a wide and varied scope of owners. increase its market share. Consequently. 5. it leads to a more rational allocation of resources because funds. or acquire other necessary business assets.Mobilizing savings for investment When people draw their savings and invest in shares.Redistribution of wealth Stock exchanges do not exist to redistribute wealth. or kept in idle deposits with banks. are mobilized and redirected to promote business activity with benefits for several economic sectors such as agriculture. which could have been consumed. 2.Facilitating company growth Companies view acquisitions as an opportunity to expand product lines. both casual and professional stock investors. increase distribution channels. However. companies generally tend to improve on their management standards and efficiency in order to satisfy the demands of these shareholders and the more stringent rules for public corporations imposed by public stock exchanges and the government. 4. commerce and industry. it is alleged that public companies (companies that are owned by shareholders who are members of the general public and trade shares on public exchanges) tend to have better management records than privately-held companies (those companies where shares are not publicly traded. resulting in stronger economic growth and higher productivity levels and firms. hedge against volatility. will share in the wealth of profitable businesses. 3. A takeover bid or a merger agreement through the stock market is one of the simplest and most common ways for a company to grow by acquisition or fusion. through dividends and stock price increases that may result in capital gains.The Stock Exchange provide companies with the facility to raise capital for expansion through selling shares to the investing public. often owned by the company founders and/or their families and 18 .

Therefore the movement of share prices and in general of the stock indexes can be an indicator of the general trend in the economy. However. are classical examples of corporate mismanagement. largely.Tel (2001). or financial crisis could eventually lead to a stock market crash. although by securing such bonds with the full faith and credit of the government instead of with collateral. Adelphia (2002). An economic recession. Parmalat (2003).heirs. Therefore the Stock Exchange provides the opportunity for small investors to own shares of the same companies as large investors. some well-documented cases are known where it is alleged that there has been considerable slippage in corporate governance on the part of some public companies. The dot-com bubble in the early 2000s. and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007-08. investing in shares is open to both the large and small stock investors because a person buys the number of shares they can afford.Government capital-raising for development projects Governments at various levels may decide to borrow money in order to finance infrastructure projects such as sewage and water treatment works or housing estates by selling another category of securities known as bonds. on market forces. thus loaning money to the government. the result is that the government must tax the citizens or otherwise raise additional funds to make any regular coupon payments and refund the principal when the bonds mature. Webvan (2001). 19 . MCI WorldCom (2002). 7.Creating investment opportunities for small investors As opposed to other businesses that require huge capital outlay. share prices rise and fall depending. 9.Barometer of the economy At the stock exchange. Lehman Brothers (2008). The issuance of such bonds can obviate the need to directly tax the citizens in order to finance development. Enron Corporation (2001). Companies like Pets.com (2000). depression. and Satyam Computer Services (2009) were among the most widely scrutinized by the media. 8. Sunbeam (2001). American International Group (2008). Share prices tend to rise or remain stable when companies and the economy in general show signs of stability and growth. or otherwise by a small group of investors). These bonds can be raised through the Stock Exchange whereby members of the public buy them. One.

Bombay Stock Exchange Introduction Bombay Stock Exchange is the oldest stock exchange in Asia with a rich heritage.79 trillion . BSE is now a corporatised and demutualised entity incorporated under the provisions of the Companies Act. Apart from the SENSEX. 2005 notified by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). BSE is the first stock exchange in the country which obtained permanent recognition (in 1956) from the Government of India under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act 1956. The SENSEX is constructed on a 'free-float' methodology. With demutualisation. What is now popularly known as BSE was established as "The Native Share & Stock Brokers' Association" in 1875. An investor can choose from more than 4. are classified into A. pursuant to the BSE (Corporatisation and Demutualisation) Scheme. and is tracked worldwide. as its strategic partners. BSE has facilitated the growth of the Indian corporate sector by providing it with an efficient access to resources. is India's first stock market index that enjoys an iconic stature . S. It migrated from the open outcry system to an online screen-based order driven trading system in 1995. There is perhaps no major corporate in India which has not sourced BSE's services in raising resources from the capital market. BSE's pivotal and pre-eminent role in the development of the Indian capital market is widely recognized. now spanning three centuries in its 133 years of existence. BSE has two of world's best exchanges. Today. which for easy reference. This agreement has made 20 . The market capitalization as on December 31. Deutsche Börse and Singapore Exchange. SENSEX. and is sensitive to market sentiments and market realities. T and Z groups. 1956. BSE is the world's number 1 exchange in terms of the number of listed companies and the world's 5th in transaction numbers. It is an index of 30 stocks representing 12 major sectors. 2007 stood at USD 1. Over the past 133 years. BSE offers 21 indices.700 listed companies. Earlier an Association Of Persons (AOP). B. BSE has entered into an index cooperation agreement with Deutsche Börse. The BSE Index. including 12 sectoral indices.

It has successfully launched a reporting platform for corporate bonds in India christened the ICDM or Indian Corporate Debt Market and a unique ticker-cum-screen aptly named 'BSE Broadcast' which enables information dissemination to the common man on the street. hedging and arbitrage. It has a nation-wide reach with a presence in more than 359 cities and towns of India. In recent times. BSE provides an efficient and transparent market for trading in equity. The systems and processes are designed to safeguard market integrity and enhance transparency in operations. BSE launched the Directors Database and ICERS (Indian Corporate Electronic Reporting System) to facilitate information flow and increase transparency in the Indian capital market. BSE also has a wide range of services to empower investors and facilitate smooth transactions: 21 . debt instruments and derivatives.SENSEX and other BSE indices available to investors in Europe and America. the global leader in ETFs through its iShares® brand. In 2006. BSE continues to innovate. SPIcE allows small investors to take a long-term view of the market. The ETF enables investors in Hong Kong to take an exposure to the Indian equity market. Barclays Global Investors (BGI). BSE has always been at par with the international standards. has created the 'iShares® BSE SENSEX India Tracker' which tracks the SENSEX. trading. The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) on SENSEX. It is also the first exchange in the country and second in the world to receive Information Security Management System Standard BS 7799-2-2002 certification for its BSE On-line Trading System (BOLT). While the Directors Database provides a single-point access to information on the boards of directors of listed companies. BSE is the first exchange in India and the second in the world to obtain an ISO 9001:2000 certification. It brings to the investors a trading tool that can be easily used for the purposes of investment. it has become the first national level stock exchange to launch its website in Gujarati and Hindi to reach out to a larger number of investors. called "SPIcE" is listed on BSE. Moreover. the ICERS facilitates the corporates in sharing with BSE their corporate announcements.

com. 2006 and March 31 2007 have been awarded the ICAI awards for excellence in financial reporting. it is an amount higher than that of any exchange in the country.com: In February 2001. BSE Training Institute: BTI imparts capital market training and certification.Investor Services: The Department of Investor Services redresses grievances of investors. in collaboration with reputed management institutes and universities. volume positions and members' positions and real-time measurement of default risk. It offers over 40 courses on various aspects of the capital market and financial sector. market reconstruction and generation of cross market alerts.000 Trader Workstations located across over 359 cities in India.'Safe Investing in the Stock Market' under which 264 programmes were held in more than 200 cities.000 people have attended the BTI programmes Awards The World Council of Corporate Governance has awarded the Golden Peacock Global CSR Award for BSE's initiatives in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). BSEWEBX. BOLT is currently operating in 25. BSE introduced the world's first centralized exchangebased Internet trading system. BSEWEBX. 22 . BSE was the first exchange in the country to provide an amount of Rs. This initiative enables investors anywhere in the world to trade on the BSE platform. BSE launched a nationwide investor awareness programme. • The Annual Reports and Accounts of BSE for the year ended March 31.1 million towards the investor protection fund. More than 20. Surveillance: BSE's On-Line Surveillance System (BOSS) monitors on a real-time basis the price movements. The BSE On-line Trading (BOLT): BSE On-line Trading (BOLT) facilitates on-line screen based trading in securities.

Over the decades. the 'BSE-200' and the 'DOLLEX-200'.that subsequently became the barometer of the Indian stock market. The journey in the 20th century has not been an easy one. Since then. came out with a Stock Index-SENSEX. With a view to provide a better representation of the increasing number of listed companies. Delhi. there was no measure or scale that could precisely measure the various ups and downs in the Indian stock market. History For the premier stock exchange that pioneered the securities transaction business in India. It comprised 100 stocks listed at five major stock exchanges in India . BSE will continue to remain an icon in the Indian capital market. BSE launched the dollar-linked version of BSE-100 index on May 22. The launch of SENSEX in 1986 was later followed up in January 1989 by introduction of BSE National Index (Base: 1983-84 = 100). BSE. BSE has come a long way in attuning itself to the varied needs of investors and market participants. Calcutta. in 1986. 1994 two new index series viz. Till the decade of eighties. The BSE National Index was renamed BSE-100 Index from October 14. larger market capitalization and the new industry sectors. BSE launched on 27th May. the stock market in the country has passed through good and bad periods. segment-specific and sector-specific indices. became members of what today is called Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE).Pacific HRM awards for its efforts in employer branding through talent management at work. Ahmedabad and Madras.Mumbai. it is being calculated taking into consideration only the prices of stocks listed at BSE. 1. 2006.• The Human Resource Management at BSE has won the Asia . 1996 and since then. over a century of experience is a proud achievement.. A lot has changed since 1875 when 318 persons by paying a then princely amount of Re. health management at work and excellence in HR through technology Drawing from its rich past and its equally robust performance in the recent times. In order to fulfill the need for still broader. BSE has continuously 23 .

been increasing the range of its indices. BSE-500 Index and 5 sectoral indices were launched in 1999. In 2001, BSE launched BSE-PSU Index, DOLLEX-30 and the country's first free-float based index - the BSE TECk Index. Over the years, BSE shifted all its indices to the free-float methodology

National Stock Exchange of India
National Stock Exchange Limited

Type Location

Stock Exchange Mumbai, India 19°3′37″N 72°51′35″E/19.06028°N 72.85972°E/19.06028; 72.85972

Coordinates

Owner Key people Currency No. of listings MarketCap

National Stock Exchange of India Limited Mr. Ravi Narain (Managing Director & CEO) INR 1587 US$ 1.46 trillion (2006) S&P CNX Nifty

Indexes

CNX Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500

Website

http://www.nse-india.com/

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NSE is mutually-owned by a set of leading financial institutions, banks, insurance companies and The National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), is a Mumbai-based stock exchange. It is the largest stock exchange in India in terms of daily turnover and number of trades, for both equities and derivative trading.[1]. Though a number of other exchanges exist, NSE and the Bombay Stock Exchange are the two most significant stock exchanges in India, and between them are responsible for the vast majority of share transactions. The NSE's key index is the S&P CNX Nifty, known as the Nifty, an index of fifty major stocks weighted by market capitalisation. other financial intermediaries in India but its ownership and management operate as separate entities. There are at least 2 foreign investors NYSE Euronext and Goldman Sachs who have taken a stake in the NSE. As of 2006[update], the NSE VSAT terminals, 2799 in total, cover more than 1500 cities across India . In October 2007, the equity market capitalization of the companies listed on the NSE was US$ 1.46 trillion, making it the second largest stock exchange in South Asia. NSE is the third largest Stock Exchange in the world in terms of the number of trades in equities. It is the second fastest growing stock exchange in the world with a recorded growth of 16.6%. Origins NSE building at BKC The National Stock Exchange of India was promoted by leading Financial institutions at the behest of the Government of India, and was incorporated in November 1992 as a tax-paying company. In April 1993, it was recognized as a stock exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. NSE commenced operations in the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) segment in June 1994. The Capital Market (Equities) segment of the NSE commenced operations in November 1994, while operations in the Derivatives segment commenced in June 2000. Innovations

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NSE has remained in the forefront of modernization of India's capital and financial markets, and its pioneering efforts include:

Being the first national, anonymous, electronic limit order book (LOB) exchange to trade securities in India. Since the success of the NSE, existent market and new market structures have followed the "NSE" model.

Setting up the first clearing corporation "National Securities Clearing Corporation Ltd." in India. NSCCL was a landmark in providing innovation on all spot equity market (and later, derivatives market) trades in India.

Co-promoting and setting up of National Securities Depository Limited, first depository in India[2]. Setting up of S&P CNX Nifty. NSE pioneered commencement of Internet Trading in February 2000, which led to the wide popularization of the NSE in the broker community. Being the first exchange that, in 1996, proposed exchange traded derivatives, particularly on an equity index, in India. After four years of policy and regulatory debate and formulation, the NSE was permitted to start trading equity derivatives

• •

Being the first and the only exchange to trade GOLD ETFs (exchange traded funds) in India. NSE has also launched the NSE-CNBC-TV18 media centre in association with CNBCTV18, it is the one of the most important stock exchange in the world.

S&P CNX Nifty
S&P CNX Nifty is a well diversified 50 stock index accounting for 21 sectors of the economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index based derivatives and index funds.

S&P CNX Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products Ltd. (IISL), which
26

34% of the total market capitalization as on Mar 31. There are other stock exchanges like the Calcutta Stock Exchange etc. The BSE is situated at Bombay and the NSE is situated at Delhi. It gives you a general idea about whether most of the stocks have gone up or most of the stocks have gone down. but they are not as popular as the BSE and the NSE. Impact cost of the S&P CNX Nifty for a portfolio size of Rs. NSE. it means that the prices of the stocks of most of the major companies on the BSE have gone up. If the Sensex goes down.16% S&P CNX Nifty is professionally maintained and is ideal for derivatives trading • • • Sensex & the Nifty The Sensex is an "index". The The Sensex Nifty is is an an indicator indicator of of all all the the major major companies companies of of the the BSE. the Nifty represents the top stocks of the NSE.is a joint venture between NSE and CRISIL. • The total traded value for the last six months of all Nifty stocks is approximately 65. is the Bombay Stock Exchange and the NSE is the National Stock Exchange. These are the major stock exchanges in the country.Most of the stock trading in the country is done 27 though the BSE & the NSE. .2 crore is 0.68% of the traded value of all stocks on the NSE Nifty stocks represent about 65. IISL is India's first specialised company focused upon the index as a core product. 2009. Just in case you are confused. who are world leaders in index services. the BSE. this tells you that the stock price of most of the major stocks on the BSE have gone down. Just like the Sensex represents the top stocks of the BSE. If the Sensex goes up. IISL has a Marketing and licensing agreement with Standard & Poor's (S&P). What is an index? An index is basically an indicator.

if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it. If a company's results are better than expected. and in the long run no company can survive without them.Besides Sensex and the Nifty there are many other indexes. there would be greater supply than demand. By this we mean that stock prices change because of “supply and demand”. It makes sense when you think about it. The reasons for stock prices going "up" and "down" Stock prices change every day because of market forces. you will know what people are buying and what people are selling. Public companies are required to report their earnings four times a year (once each quarter). The most important factor that affects the value of a company is its earnings. If a company's results disappoint and are worse than expected. This is called the “BSE Mid-cap Index”. and the price would fall. If you know this you will know what prices go up and what prices go down! To figure out the likes and dislikes of people. 28 then the price will fall. If you understand this. . it isn't going to stay in business. which are referred to as earnings seasons. you have to figure out what news is positive for a company and what news is negative and how any news about a company will be interpreted by the people. the price jumps up. Earnings are the profit a company makes. then the price moves up! Conversely. What is difficult to understand is what makes people like a particular stock and dislike another stock. If a company never makes money. Dalal Street watches with great attention at these times. If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply). (Basics of economics!) Understanding supply and demand is easy. The reason behind this is that analysts base their future value of a company on their earnings projection. There is an index that gives you an idea about whether the mid-cap stocks go up and down.

Some believe that it isn't possible to predict how stock prices will change. So. which is known as issuing stock. Still. A company can borrow by taking a loan from a bank or by issuing bonds. it's not just earnings that can change the feeling people have about a stock. The only thing we do know is that stocks are volatile and can change in price very very rapidly. the stock price of dozens of internet companies rose without ever making even the smallest profit. The reasons for which companies issue stocks Why would the founders share the profits with thousands of people when they could keep profits to themselves? The reason is that at some point every company needs to "raise money". The first sale of a stock. while others think that by drawing charts and looking at past price movements.Of course. It would be a rather simple world if this were the case! During the “dotcom bubble”. companies can either borrow it from somebody or raise it by selling part of the company. On the other hand. and most internet companies saw their values shrink to a fraction of their highs. you can determine when to buy and sell. All that the shareholders get in return for their money is the hope that the shares will someday be worth more than what they paid for them. is called the initial public offering (IPO). To do this. what are "all the factors" that affect the stocks price? The best answer is that nobody really knows for sure. this fact demonstrates that there are factors other than current earnings that influence stocks. these high stock prices did not hold. for example. It is important that you understand the distinction between a company financing through 29 . Both methods come under "debt financing". As we all know. which is issued by the private company itself. Issuing stock is advantageous for the company because it does not require the company to pay back the money or make interest payments along the way. issuing stock is called “equity financing”.

Before picking the right stock you need to do some analysis. you assume the risk of the company not being successful . to try and figure out what the stock price is going to be like in the future. On the other hand.debt and financing through equity. but they also stand to lose their entire investment if the company isn't successful. you are guaranteed the return of your money (the principal) along with promised interest payments. technical analysis is the study of prices and volume. It is much more of an "art" than a science. now we will go into stock picking and how to pick the right stock. Calculation of BSE SENSEX… 30 . peoples buying behavior etc. for forecasting of future stock price or financial price movements. There are two major types of analysis: 1. It depends more on experience and involves some statistics and mathematics. Fundamental Analysis 2. Simply put. When you buy a debt investment such as a bond. neither is a shareholder. On the other hand technical analysis look at the stocks chart. so explaining technical analysis is out of the scope of this article. fundamental analysis looks at the actual company and tries to figure out what the company price is going to be like in the future. Stock Picking –Having understood all the basics of the stock market and the risk involved.just as a small business owner isn't guaranteed a return. Technical Analysis Fundamental analysis is the analysis of a stock on the basis of core financial and economic analysis to predict the movement of stocks price. Technical analysis is a little more complicated. In this article we will go into the basics of “fundamental analysis”. Shareholders earn a lot if a company is successful. By becoming an owner. This isn't the case with an equity investment.

3 important things you must know and follow as an new investor! You need to KNOW some “unforgettable basics” before you enter the world of investing in stocks. the stock price will crash and they will walk off to promote another stock. This is a world wide accepted method as one of the best methods for calculating a stock market index. Please note: The method used for calculating the Sensex and the 30 companies that are taken into consideration are changed from time to time. they will sell the stock for a huge price. You must always use your own brain. The stock market is a field dominated by savvy investors who know the ins-and-outs of the market. This is done to make the Sensex an accurate index and so that it represents the BSE stocks properly. : Don't even consider "tips" that tell you about "hot stocks". The Sensex is supposed to be an indicator of the stocks in the BSE. Consider the source: There are many people in the market who put in all their time and effort in promoting certain stocks. Always use your own brain: It's extremely important. The Sensex has a very important function. you can find this out by reading our “How to make money in the stock market?” article. Relying on the advice of others. It is supposed to show whether the stocks are generally going up. the stock market can be a VERY dangerous place.This article explains how the value of the “BSE Sensex” or “sensitive index” is calculated. no matter how well intentioned it may be. For people who are not “on the inside”. If they can get enough people to buy the stock and they can get the stock price to rise. If you are not sure what we mean by the Sensex or what the Sensex is all about. It is calculated using the “free-float market capitalization” method. To show this accurately. or generally going down. Make sure you dig in and really examine the "facts about the companies" 31 . the Sensex is calculated taking into consideration stock prices of 30 different BSE listed companies. They do this because they have their money invested in those stocks. is almost always a complete disaster.

you will basically not loose too much! Derivatives Commodities whose value is derived from the price of some underlying asset like securities. but in many cases. Everything has a price.before you invest. But if you are a new investor. But then again. By following these rules. nothing comes free. interest level. Once you really get into the stock market you do not need to follow these rules anymore. commodities. it’s this flexibility that appeals to investors 32 . Ignore press releases which have very little substance. (Especially if you are new to investing in the stock market!) Please understand that the above tips are tips for beginners. You will have to loose some money. In fact. derivatives are financial security such as an option or future whose value is derived in part from the value and characteristics of another security. It is a generic term for a variety of financial instruments. you MUST follow these rules. but many many people miss it. this means you buy a promise to convey ownership of the asset. And finally the most important tip!!! Only invest money you can afford to lose!! Sure this is a basic point. The legal terms of a contract are much more varied and flexible than the terms of property ownership. make some bad decisions and then only will you really understand the market. In more simpler form. the underlying asset. You should only invest money that you can honestly afford to lose!! Everyone enters into investments with the idea of earning big profits. Essentially. bullion. You cannot understand the market by just looking at it from far. rather than the asset itself. this never works. currency. stock market index or anything else are known as “Derivatives”. They are for your own safety. and rely on "hype" to tell the company's story.

or currency. and exposed to. derivatives – wittingly or unwittingly. Shares or bonds are financial assets where one can claim on another person or corporation. the owner of a ‘futures’ contract is obligated to buy or sell the asset. The other examples of derivatives are warrants and convertible bonds (similar to shares in that they are assets). where the contract details may not be standardized. ‘Futures’ and ‘options’ are two commodity traded types of derivatives.. Derivatives securities or derivatives products are in real terms contracts rather than solid as it fairly sounds. the underlying asset is usually a commodity. Beyond this. But derivatives are usually contracts. they will be usually be fairly standardised and governed by the property of securities laws in an appropriate country. that they are investing in. India Commodity Market 33 . On the other hand. an insurance policy or a pension fund. the derivatives range is only limited by the imagination of investment banks. On the other hand. It is likely that any person who has funds invested. a contract is merely an agreement between two parties. When a person invests in derivative. An ‘options’ contract gives the owner the right to buy or sell an asset at a set price on or before a given date. stock. bond. He bet that the value derived from the underlying asset will increase or decrease by a certain amount within a certain fixed period of time.

the extent of the retail market (both organized and unorganized) has evolved in leaps and bounds. • In recent years. acted as mere parasites who did not add any value to the product but raised its price which was eventually faced by the consumers. The traditional wholesale market in India dealt with whole sellers who bought goods from the farmers and manufacturers and then sold them to the retailers after making a profit in the process. The unorganized retail outlets of the yesteryears consist of small shop owners who are price takers where consumers face a highly competitive price structure. In fact. Almost every commodity under the sun both agricultural and industrial are now being provided at well distributed retail outlets throughout the country. Moreover. It was the retailers who finally sold the goods to the consumers. The broadest classification of the Indian Market can be made in terms of the commodity market and the bond market. Tata and others. we shall deal with the former in a little detail. Such markets are social institutions that facilitate exchange of goods for money. With the passage of time the importance of whole sellers began to fade out for the following reasons: • The whole sellers in most situations. India Commodity Market can be subdivided into the following two categories: • • Wholesale Market Retail Market Let us now take a look at what the present scenario of each of the above markets is like. the retail outlets belong to both the organized as well as the unorganized sector. The commodity market in India comprises of all palpable markets that we come across in our daily lives.The vast geographical extent of India and her huge population is aptly complemented by the size of her market. Reliance. The cost of goods is estimated in terms of domestic currency . Such 34 . the success stories of the commodity market of India in recent years has mainly centered around the growth generated by the Retail Sector. The organized sector on the other hand are owned by various business houses like Pantaloons. Here. The improvement in transport facilities made the retailers directly interact with the producers and hence the need for whole sellers was not felt.

perishable and durable. Demand for commodities is likely to become four times by 2010 than what it presently is. 10. One may browse through the following links to have a more detailed information about money market.000 billion by the year 2010. edible and inedible. Treasury Bills and 35 . The money market securities that are issued by the government or financial institutions or large corporations are very liquid. Although the stock market is associated with high risks and high returns . Since the money market securities trade at very high denominations it becomes very difficult for the individual investors to have access to it. The money market is a type of a dealer market where firms purchase securities in their own account by assuming the risks themselves. Money Market When the stock prices show a downward trend . Modern marketing strategies and other techniques of sales promotion enable such markets to draw customers from every section of the society.markets are usually sell a wide range of articles both agricultural and manufactured. Money Market Definition Money Market Definition is simply meant as the short-term debt market. Unlike the stock exchanges the money market securities do not operate in exchanges or through brokers. it yields very low returns unlike the bond market. However the growth of such markets has still centered around the urban areas primarily due to infrastructural limitations. Since the money market is extremely safe. the total valuation of the Indian Retail Market is estimated to cross Rs. many are risk averse and prefer to invest in the more secure money market . Transactions take place over phone or the electronic system. The money market deals with very short term debt securities that mature in less than a year. Considering the present growth rate. then it becomes risky to keep savings there.

So let us discuss about the different factors affecting the stock price in this article. The trend of the stock market trading directly affects the price.certificate of deposits are regarded as the instruments in the money market. On the other hand if people are selling more stocks. so in that case you need to know the functioning of the market. Find detailed on the world money market. then you should always make a good survey of the whole market. Market Cap 36 . Get the method of finding the money market rates. World Money Market World Money Market has been providing origination. trading and the distribution of short-term debt instruments across different regions over the world. When people are buying more stocks. rates on bankers' acceptance etc. There are some major factors that affect stock price. Money Market Rates Money Market Rates can be simply defined as the market rates including the broker call loan rate. then the price of that stock falls. then the price of that particular stock increases. Money Market Index Money Market Index is a true indicator of the prevailing money market. As you know that you cannot predict the stock market. Demand AND SUPPLY One of the major factors affecting stock price is demand and supply. federal funds rate. Major Factors That Affect Stock Price in stock market globally When you wish to invest in the stock market. which renders a clear-cut idea on making investment. you should be very careful when you decide to invest in the Indian stock market. So.

ONGC. you are talking about market capitalization! Market cap or market capitalization is simply the worth of a company in terms of it’s shares! To put it in a simple way. You should always keep in mind that it is not the stock but the market capitalization of the company that determines the worth of the company. has a market cap of “Rs. if you were to buy all the shares of a particular company. So market cap is another factor that affects stock price.com and look up the company whose market cap you are interested in finding out! The figure in front of “Mkt. when there is a negative press release. On the other hand. the company will either be a “mid-cap” or “largecap” or “small-cap” company! Now the question is.705. simply multiply the “current share price” by the “number of shares issued by the company”! Just to give you an idea.21 Cr” (when this article was written) Depending on the value of the market cap. how do YOU calculate the market cap of a particular company? You don’t! Just go to a website like MoneyControl. it can ruin the prospect of a stock. So. what is the amount you would have to pay? That amount is called the “market capitalization”! To calculate the market cap of a particular company. In this case you should remember that news should not matter much but the overall performance of the company matters more. News When you get positive news about a company then it can increase the buying interest in the market. You have! When you are talking about “mid-cap”. news is another factor affecting stock price. Earning/Price Ratio 37 . Cap” will be the market cap value.Never try to guess the worth of a company simply by comparing the price of the stock. "Market Capitalization"? You probably think that you have never heard of the term “market capitalization” before.170. “small-cap” and “large-cap” stocks.

but most traders will choose a single style and only take that type of trade. Most day trading systems have a lot of flexibility. The styles range from short term trading such as scalping where positions are only held for a few seconds or minutes. The stock becomes undervalued if the price of the share is much lower than the earnings of a company. currencies. these are the major factors that affect stock price. But if this is the case. Day trading differs slightly from other styles of trading in that positions are rarely (if ever) held overnight or when the market being traded is closed. individual traders now have direct access to the same exchanges and market data. then it has the potential to rise in the near future. to longer term swing and position trading where a position may be held throughout the trading day. This gives you a fair idea of a company’s share price when it is compared to its earnings. Day trading was originally only available to financial companies (such as banks). such as futures. and stocks. and can have open positions for anywhere from a few minutes to a few hours. suited to different day trader personalities. So. with the goal of making a profit from the difference between the buying price and the selling price.Another important factor affecting stock price is the earning/price ratio. depending upon how the trade is doing (whether it is in profit). Some day traders will trade multiple styles. because only they had access to the exchanges and market data. Trading Styles There are several different styles of day trading. and can make the same trades at very low cost. 38 . The stock becomes overvalued if the price is much higher than the actual earning. But with recent technology such as the Internet. Day Trading Day trading (and trading in general) is the buying and selling of various financial instruments. options.

and ranging trades. Trend trades are trades in the direction of the current price movement (i. Some day traders like to make many trades throughout the trading day. while others prefer to wait for what they consider the best conditions for their trade. and counter-trend trades are trades against the direction of the current price movement (i. The foreign direct investment (FDI) stood at US $ 27. but some traders will take different types.Day trading also has different types of trade.426 million. the trading process that is used. and the desired goal of making a profit. and are used when the market is moving sideways. and perhaps only make one trade per day. Most day traders will choose a single type of trade.e. such as trend trades. However many trades are made. and choose which one to trade depending upon the current condition of the market. buying if the price is moving up). are the same. selling if the price is moving up). there are other variances between day traders. while the portfolio investment stood at US $ -11. Ranging trades are trades that go back and forth between two prices.545 million.881 million. In addition to the style and type of day trading.e. Monthly trends in foreign investments ($ million) Total foreign investments 200708(P) 3617 3972 Months Foreign direct investments Portfolio investments 2007-08(P) 2008-09(P) 2007-08(P) 2008-09(P) 2008-09(P) April May 1643 2120 3749 3932 39 1974 1852 -880 -288 2869 3644 . Current State of the Indian Economy: Capital Inflows During the April-January period of 2008-09. India attracted total foreign investments of US $ 15. counter-trend trades.

i.High age 7 8 9 10 Low Low .50.84 = 100) Average High Low (Base : November 3. Nifty has been rechristened as ' S & P CNX Nifty with effect BSE Sensitive Index BSE .79 = 100) AveragHigh e 1 2 3 4 5 6 40 (Base : 1983 .June July August September October November December January February March AprilJanuary 1238 705 831 713 2027 1864 1558 1767 5670 4438 2392 2247 2328 2562 1497 1083 1362 2733 - 3664 6713 -2875 7081 9564 -107 5294 6739 -8904 -1600 -3010 -492 593 -1403 -5243 -574 30 -614 - 4902 7418 -2044 7794 11591 1757 6852 8506 -3234 2838 -618 1755 2921 1159 -3746 509 1392 2119 - - 27426 - -11881 - 15545 Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Stock Market Trends * NSE . 1995 = 1000) Aver.e..100 S & P CNX Nifty * (Base : 1978 .

42 10335.59 8982.20 4835.59 9240.70 08 8 Aug-0814722.62 7029.40 4214.56 5432.35 4802.00 4503.28 8488.10 08 8 Apr-0816290.90 4838.94 4443.75 8101.84 2854.80 3077.13716.12 8451.75 7276.12 8627.01 4769.57 8095.50 2656.16945.05 08 1 Oct-08 10549.74 4463.64 5756.18 13461.20 9348.3 16677.54 11509.59 8785.2 16063.96 10631.56 5483.36 3121.55 41 .58 8907.6 17600.49 4417.58 10099.15838.45 2678.88 5201.79 3148.66 5228.34 7704.80 3816.1 15503.00 3850.23 7828.01 5328.88 14809.35 6287.01 4823.84 5028.86 12595.94 10526.49 8363.6 20873.9 17378.80 7143.93 8674.71 7760.95 4441.33 16729.60 4476.92 6776.01 9435.60 9969.25 4 Mar.50 2895.79 4739.96 8895.8 15049.28 12575.00 3 Sept.46 15343.87 4343.87 6564.85 4899.09 4332.92 14048.22 3950.67 8509.02 4901.6 13055.48 7362.55 5181.13942.20 5 Nov-089453.35 7860.30 08 5 June.12 16275.1 14942.45 Jan-09 9350.5 18663.21 3210.12 4620.14997.16 16608.67 4124.50 4647.50 4953.75 2524.00 9 May.25 2553.17 2834.60 7909.64 8621.55 08 8 July.91 8739.30 5 Feb-08 17727.60 4040.69 4504.36 5396.91 5195.06 4206.15 Dec-08 9513.32 6580.Jan-08 19325.24 4864.

20 95.86 3.59 86.37 3.43 5.393.04 0.38 3.90 2.18 9.05 13.602.36 10.16 2.864.46 9.93 2.52 94.91 1.64 Turnover % to Total Turnover 31.19 7.69 82.312.60 2.683.741.161.88 3.34 7.77 756.607.36 182.853.427.27 6.28 1.99 7.28 6.081.346.56 663.14 11.90 2.94 12.987.65 8.41 3.53 2.485.27 284.10 3.25 1.18 4. crore) Total Mkt Cap 2.45 1.79 4.18 1.63 7.866.70 High 17.262.450.39 272.750.549.569.74 1.001.157.74 5.42 8.52 Week INDICES Close SENSEX MIDCAP SMLCAP BSE-100 BSE-200 BSE-500 14.82 42 137.23 2.62 7.408.69 76.598.990.43 4.02 6.367.330.39 2.805.66 3.528.240.71 807.58 407.54 4.803.361.66 4.20 3.64 8.120.85 11.38 1.28 Full Market Capitalisation % to (Rs.31 184.874.688.949.40 48.04 104.638.899.208.08 Low 7.293.60 8.547.32 4.186.38 .46 47.86 977.748.802.08 623.060.53 2.917.54 211.162.398.112.875.746.29 (Rs.75 5.54 2.673.77 7.127.13 3.042.274.98 2.102.70 202.697.428.77 65.77 660.472.24 7.490.24 3.809.919.774.06 2.85 4.77 533.01 2.57 8.925.285.75 2.13 921.297.27 2.897.516.94 11.12 BSE Sectoral Indices AUTO BANKEX CD CG FMCG HC IT METAL OIL&GAS POWER PSU REALTY 4.68 5.88 0.96 9.60 4.62 8.81 3.853.99 253.45 123.93 8.30 17.890.60 11.17 31.59 17.60 128.692.53 373.95 12.02 735.888.18 7.411.06 9.907.91 2.24 13. crore) 2.505.38 668.516.77 5.019.86 1.85 29.863.251.15 4.744.65 906.622.806.92 1.

13 2.618.472.58 841.99 12.638.77 570.00 --- --- --- --- 591.32 3.82 0.664.00 0.423.00 -- -- -- -- Note : The market capitalisation of all the indices is free float market capitalisation except for BSEPSU.59 0.91 2.328.TECk BSE Dollex Indices DOLLEX-30 DOLLEX100 DOLLEX200 2.67 750.72 3.582.41 1.227. Trends in Inflation 43 .15 8.64 1.

75 191.32 179.05 June 203.05 324.78 310.76 211.93 328.43 192.10 205.30 194.80 177.76 May 201.28 204.10 171.84 317.40 March 196.08 44 . Light & Lubricants Manufactured Products 2006 January 196.28 February 196.50 171.76 326.72 330.(1) Index Numbers Of Wholesale Prices in India ( Monthly Averages) (Base: 1993-94 = 100) Year Month All Commodities Primary Articles Fuel.83 September 207.02 195. Power.02 202.00 August 205.00 173.30 200.94 177.08 175.80 171.63 320.88 314.30 July 204.73 175.90 315.90 April 199.

The ability to profit in rising or falling markets. typically via brokers. If the investor had bought 1000 euros on that date. Foreign exchange market conditions can change at any time in response to real-time events.0857. One year later. 2003 was 1. The 45 . An enormous liquid market making it easy to trade most currencies. The main enticements of currency dealing to private investors and attractions for short-term Forex trading are:        24-hour trading. he would have paid 1085. dollar. the Forex rate was 1. Forex trading The investor's goal in Forex trading is to profit from foreign currency movements.70 U. Standard instruments for controlling risk exposure. Forex trading or currency trading is always done in currency pairs. which means that the value of the euro (the numerator of the EUR/USD ratio) increased in relation to the U.2083. Many options for zero commission trading. This number is also referred to as a "Forex rate" or just "rate" for short. Volatile markets offering profit opportunities. dollars. the exchange rate of EUR/USD on Aug 26th. 5 days a week with non-stop access to global Forex dealers. Leveraged trading with low margin requirements. For example.Forex An overview of the Forex market The Forex market is a non-stop cash market where currencies of nations are traded. Foreign currencies are constantly and simultaneously bought and sold across local and global markets and traders' investments increase or decrease in value based upon currency movements.S.S.

Many successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for superior results.30 dollars.60 more than what he had started one year earlier. However. it is estimated that anywhere from 70%-90% of the FX market is speculative. Therefore. they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. the U. When trading currencies. the investor would have USD 122. but both can be useful forecast tools for the Forex trader. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually 46 . trade only when you expect the currency you are buying to increase in value relative to the currency you are selling.investor could now sell the 1000 euros in order to receive 1208. If the currency you are buying does increase in value. the return on investment (ROI) should be compared to the return on a "risk-free" investment. to know if the investor made a good investment.S. The technician studies the effect while the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. one needs to compare this investment option to alternative investments. Analysis Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action. government bonds since there is practically no chance for a default. However. rather. At the very minimum. One example of a risk-free investment is long-term U. the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end. you must sell back the other currency in order to lock in a profit. An open trade (also called an open position) is a trade in which a trader has bought or sold a particular currency pair and has not yet sold or bought back the equivalent amount to close the position. In other words. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis differ greatly. They have the same goal .e. Forex-Forecasting This article provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to forecast the behavior of the Forex market.to predict a price or movement. i.S. government going bankrupt or being unable or unwilling to pay its debt obligation.

and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. not with the reasons for any changes. the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements. rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading. for example. 3.g. open-closing) Trends (following moving average). Forex charts are based on market action involving price. political factors and market sentiment. Market action discounts everything! This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it. 2. e.: Relative Strength Index (RSI) Number theory (Fibonacci numbers. Prices move in trends Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant. History repeats itself Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time. Gann numbers) Waves (Elliott wave theory) Gaps (high-low. supply and demand. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously. There are five categories in Forex technical analysis theory:      Indicators (oscillators. Some major technical analysis tools are described below: Relative Strength Index (RSI): 47 . For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. Technical analysis is built on three essential principles: 1.happened in the market. there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis. Also. However.

3.8. Divergence between the stochastic lines and the price action of the underlying instrument gives a powerful trading signal. The inverse of 62%.21. which is an exponential moving average of the difference. An RSI of 30 or less is taken as a signal that the instrument may be oversold (a situation in which prices have fallen more than the market expectations). Conversely.5.. If the RSI is 70 or greater.34. %K and %D that are used to indicate overbought/oversold areas of a chart. then the instrument is assumed to be overbought (a situation in which prices have risen more than market expectations). period closing prices tend to concentrate in the higher part of the period's range.1. which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number. If the MACD and trigger lines cross. 48 .2. The ratio of any number to the next larger number is 62%. closing prices tend to be near to the extreme low of the period range.The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the calculation so that the index is expressed in a range of 0-100. which is 38%. is also used as a Fibonacci retracement number. then this is taken as a signal that a change in the trend is likely.) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. Stochastic oscillator: This is used to indicate overbought/oversold conditions on a scale of 0-100%.13. Stochastic calculations produce two lines. The indicator is based on the observation that in a strong up trend. Number theory: Fibonacci numbers: The Fibonacci number sequence (1.. The MACD line is the difference between two exponential moving averages and the signal or trigger line. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): This indicator involves plotting two momentum lines. as prices fall in a strong down trend.

Trends A trend refers to the direction of prices. particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down trend. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up trend.Gann numbers: W. 49 .D. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend reversal. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range. Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends and support and resistance levels. known as time/price equivalents. Waves Elliott wave theory: The Elliott wave theory is an approach to market analysis that is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci number sequence. A breakaway gap is a price gap that forms on the completion of an important price pattern. A runaway gap is a price gap that usually occurs around the mid-point of an important market trend. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy. but in essence he used angles in charts to determine support and resistance areas and predict the times of future trend changes. falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the steepness of the current trend. A down gap is formed when the highest price of the day is lower than the lowest price of the prior day. He made his fortune using methods that he developed for trading instruments based on relationships between price movement and time. It usually signals the beginning of an important price move. He also used lines in charts to predict support and resistance areas. An up gap is usually a sign of market strength. while a down gap is a sign of market weakness. An exhaustion gap is a price gap that occurs at the end of an important trend and signals that the trend is ending. There is no easy explanation for Gann's methods. For that reason. An up gap is formed when the lowest price on a trading day is higher than the highest high of the previous day. it is also called a measuring gap. Gann was a stock and a commodity trader working in the '50s who reputedly made over million in the markets. Gaps Gaps are spaces left on the bar chart where no trading has taken place. An ideal Elliott wave patterns shows a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave decline.

Fundamental analysis focuses on what ought to happen in a market. Many profitable trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major economic announcements. 50 . Unlike the fundamental analyst. political. many market players use technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis to determine their trading strategy. DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) is a popular technical indicator used to determine whether or not a currency pair is trending. monetary policy. and other "fundamental" elements. weather and government policy. the technical analyst is not much concerned with any of the "bigger picture" factors affecting the market. In practice. but concentrates on the activity of that instrument's market. environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the financial instrument. These criteria often include the economic condition of the country that the currency represents. Factors involved in price analysis: Supply and demand. seasonal cycles.The most common technical tools: Coppock Curve is an investment tool used in technical analysis for predicting bear market lows. Fundamental analysis is a macro or strategic assessment of where a currency should be trading based on any criteria but the movement of the currency's price itself. Fundamental analysis Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a financial instrument based on economic.

Experts are now talking about 4% levels in 2009. They are now either disappeared or merged with banks. Companies are now shutting down plants and are removing employees due to lack of demand and piling up of inventories.000 levels but Sensex fell to 7. Crude Oil prices touched $147 per barrel and Goldman Sachs talked about $200 per barrel but crude oil in now trading around $45 levels. Inflation moved to 13% and analysts talked about 15% but inflation fell to 8% in December.800 in October. 2008. 2008 but they collapsed to 2003 levels in December. 7. 2. Rupee strengthened to 39 against dollar and analysts like ICICI Kamat predicted 35 levels but rupee fell to 50 levels. But todays it has been touch the point 14000 due to government stability. 51 .000 levels in January and analysts predicted 25. Experts are now talking about 55 against dollar in 2009. 5. They are actually now talking about deflation. 3.000 targets in 2009. Investment banking is the most sought after industry in early 2008. Commodities traded around all time high levels in June.What happened in 2008? Sensex was crossed 21. Indian GDP grew at 9% in 2007-08 and analysts predicted about 10% growth in 2009. 6. Experts are now talking about 7. Experts are now talking about $30 per barrel in 20094. Experts are now talking about 7% GDP growth in 2008-09 and 5% GDP growth in 2009-10.

stock markets now become more dynamic. If economic conditions will improve by early 2010. 2008. 6. One should take into consideration this psychological aspect along with business fundamentals in arriving at price target. Real Estate prices reached stratospheric levels in early 2008 but investors bought them as if there will be no land available for purchase in 2009. DLF and Unitech will cut prices by 30% in 2009. Many real estate stocks were corrected by 70-90% in this year alone. stock markets always move much ahead of real economy. stocks will rise by late 2009. even good companies with strong growth prospects also fall along with bad overvalued stocks. Investment lessons from 2008: 1. 80% of price variations occur in 20% of days – time of maximum profits and losses. Significant statements: 1. Unlike in past. Significant falls or rises do not occur in slow motion. Just see what happened to investors in Reliance Power IPO. Believe in your research and gut feeling. How long Government will deceive people on this unmanageable issue? Biggest problem with this crisis is no one in the world 52 . the impact on India is also turning out to be stronger than we had earlier expected. 4. They are steep and severe. 7. On 18 May we have been seen more variation in recession time market has been touched the level of 14000 with growth of 2100 points 5. Biggest investment lesson: When investors are in panic mood. 2. Never follow herds. more volatile and more unpredictable due to more global integration of economy and money flows. They are now announcing bonuses and free offers to attract buyers. Timing: It is very difficult to time the stock market investments.8.” This is the frank statement from Subbarao. 3. stocks fell by October. RBI Governor: “The global economic crisis is turning out to be deeper and longer than we had earlier expected. We will hear some bankruptcies in 2009 in this sector. If real economy will suffer in early 2009. As I said in my previous posts. Stock market investors will never react normally – they will either overreact or under react to the economic or political events.

” 6. Jack Welch (former GE Chairman): “The terror strike in Mumbai could well tilt the focus of foreign investors towards neighboring China. 2.5% in the last 5 years.knows about magnitude and duration of financial crisis. 5% in 2009-10 and will be around 7% in 2010-11.Reuters poll: India's economy is expected to grow at its slowest pace in six years in the fiscal year to March 2009. including pension and insurance funds.” 5. International Energy Agency (IEA): for the first time in 25 years. Textiles. demand for crude falls. Commerce Minister: “Government will announce second stimulus package in the next week. This is the perception of foreigners about India. How India’s leaders respond to the Mumbai attacks will tell the business world what it wants and needs to know.” 4. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: “India will see the mother of all bull runs in the next 4 or 5 years. India will grow by 5. Indian economy never grew less than 7. Agriculture and Construction are the priority sectors for Government in the next package.8% in 2008-09 and 6. boosted by double-digit economic growth and increased investment by domestic investors.2% in 2008-09.” 3. According to World Bank. It estimates for Indian GDP: 6. Not just whether to pull back from India but how risky pushing forward will be. Significant statistics: 1.2% in 2009-10. World Bank: “The financial crisis is now likely to result in the most serious recession since the 1930s. 2009-10 may be a more difficult year. This is the first drop for crude oil demand since 1983.8% in 2009. Indian GDP growth will be around 6. According to RBI Governor. Many investors will be thinking about tilting the balance to China. 53 .

World economy will grow by 0. 54 . 3. These losses will increase if another major asset class will collapse 4. India needs particular attention. given its weaker fiscal position. 8. 5. Anil Ambani family holds 67% stake in the company.2% and 6. 6. Positive Stock market news: 1.5% respectively in 2009. Goldman Sachs: China GDP growth for 2009 is around 6%. Shocking! China will grow at 9% in 2010 if Government takes proper simulative decisions. IT and Hospitality sectors are the worst affected while Telecom is the most optimistic one. 7.2. R-Com stock lost 70% of value in 2008. More than 20 lakh Americans will lose jobs in 2009 and unemployment rate will touch 9% level in 2009. Global Telecom Companies are planning to buy 20-25% stake in Reliance Communications. 3.000) in 26 years in USA. McKinsey report: United States credit losses may top $3 trillion.9% in 2009 and inflows to developing countries will fall by 50%. Manpower survey: India is the second most optimistic employment market in the world but there will freezing in hiring in the next 3 months. These job losses will have cascading effect on real economy. New claims for unemployment benefits reached their highest level (5.73. India will be in election mood when we need these measures. This deal is beneficial for investors as only 12% of shares are available for trading after this purchase in the secondary market. the first decline since June 2001 . Government stability is big positive reason for sensex. 2.the largest yearover-year monthly decline since April 1999. World Bank: Global trade will fall for the first time since 1982. DLF and Unitech may lower property prices by 30% in mid-2009 to stimulate buyers. Asian Development Bank (ADB): Growth rates of China and India will be at 8. Promoter will not reduce his holding. China: Exports fell by 2.2% in November.

2008: Asian economy will grow by 7. B. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 6. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 5.500 crore. B. We may hear some shocking news on this front in the next 2 years. 2008: World economy will grow by 2. December. NPAs will not only propel the negative sentiment but increase the banks reluctance to give loans which will once again destroy the positive aspects of the bailout packages.8% in 2009. World Bank estimates: A. Only positive aspect is many PSU banks reported fall in NPAs in 2008 over 2007 except SBI and IOB. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 7. December. B. NPA statistics: NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2007: Rs 5. it is interesting to see how promoters will clear their dues. 3.930 crore. 55 .9% in 2008. Interesting statistics about Asian and World economies: 1.5% in 2008. NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2008: Rs 9. As stock markets are unlikely to recover in the next 12-15 months. November. December. NPAs will affect in 2 ways. NPA shocks: Many people are underestimating the impact of Non Performing Assets (NPAs).FCCB shocks: Foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs?) of many companies will be due for repayment in the next 3 years..2% in 2009.2% in 2009.9% in 2009. ADB estimates about Asian economy in 2008: A. September. ADB estimates about Asian economy in 2009: A. September. 2. 2008: World economy will grow by 0.

All those foreign investors who are not registered with the SEBI (Stock Exchange Board of India). P/E of Sensex in 2008 economic slowdown: 9. The companies are as profitable as they were a few days ago. Though. which ultimately allows them trade in the market. this concept of allowing anonymous investors in the market broaden the reach of the market. more than half was in the form of hot money being invested into the market by anonymous investors who pump money into the market by utilizing the Participatory Note (PN) facility. Current P/E of Sensex: 10. The hot money is that kind of money which is invested only for a short time to make some quick buck. the Government was looking for someway to curb this inflow of dollars. it also ensure free entry of dollars into Indian economy as well as increase the percentage of hot money in the market. So they took a sort of permission from registered FIIs by buying Participatory Notes (PN) from them in exchange of dollars. can not directly deal in buying/selling of sticks. The cause of concern for the Government was that in this major share of FIIs. Making the availability of Participatory Notes some difficult for foreign investors was one step Government thought would help control the inflow of dollars. So a few days ago the SEBI contemplated on a draft policy to make the issuing of PN difficult for FIIs. Let me explain it a bit : As I wrote in my last article that a major portion of the money being invested into the share market is coming from FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors). Since the continuous inflow of dollar into Indian economy is making the Indian currency (Rupee) stronger and thus making the export costlier. Yet.5 This is a much severe crisis than 2001 slowdown. It is not invested with a long term mindset. the market crashed because the Government tried to instill some sort of regulation in it. the regulatory body for stocks in India. 56 .4. The economy is as sound as it was in the boom time. Effect of fluctuation on Indian stock market Nothing actually.

there is only a remote possibility of that as of now. However. The word crorepati (multimillionaire) can soon become a common thing in India all thanks to share market.This was the step which gave a jolt to the buying spree of FIIs. you never know what can happen in future. Once they find a place which offer better return on their investment than India. As of now the market is still fluctuating and is yet to be stabilized. soon the richest person in the world will be an Indian. Ultimately the Government had to rush in to alleviate the growing concern of Investors by stating that it would not control the issuing of PN to investors. we must not forget that these people are here only till they find a new market more profitable than India. Yes you read it write. With the above note. However. the chairman of Reliance group was earning Rs 40 Lakhs ($ 100000) per minute. who are in the market for quite sometime. I think that in all probability. it is also because of the appreciation in the price of the shares of Reliance industries. Though. As this boom is being driven by FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors).the market fell more than a 1000 point in a few hours and had to shut down for some time. there is a word of caution here. That’s why most expert 57 . As people found that it would be difficult to trade in the market in future owing to non-availability of PN. it will continue it’s upward swing despite such momentary crash. On the last count (as per a leading newspaper report) Mukesh Ambani. they started exiting form the market by selling their stock. are going to become really rich. This news will from the Business standard give you some detail of this exercise done by the Government. $100000 per minute ! Though it has much to do with his huge and expanding empire of Reliance industries. Secondly most investors. they will immediately shift there. here are some of my observations on what can happen if the stock market boom continues for lone in India: First some positive one First of all if this boom continues for long. The main reason of my belief is that the Indian economy as a whole is performing very well Same is the case with most Indian companies listed in the market. Result.

The last but not the least is the overvaluation of many stocks in the market. (it actually happened some days ago as I described above) Government certainly don’t want to spoil the party that is going on in the stock market. Recession A recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for two or more consecutive quarters of a year. The RBI is facing difficultly in managing this continuous inflow of dollars as their huge supply and easy availability has resulted into dollar’s depreciation vis-à -vis Rupee. In nutshell if I am to summarize this boom of stock market. Or we may see emergence of a new market with great potential on some other place on earth. As I explained in my earlier article. a increase in interest rate in US may reverse this flow of FIIs. There is a pressure on Government to mange the appreciation of rupee to favour exporters. Some of our major export oriented industries such as Softwares and textiles are feeling the heat every day. A recession is also preceded by several quarters of slowing down.are advising people to stick to their long-term investment plan and don’t make any move in haste. The Rupee is becoming stronger to dollar thus making imports cheaper and export costlier. this can only be done if Government put some break on the inflow of dollars by FIIs which will actually mean putting a break on stock market boom.) The investment being made by FIIs in Indian share market has resulted in to a huge inflow of dollars into the economy. The profits margin of these industries have reduced as it mostly depend on current value of dollar. the continued depreciation of dollar is also a cause of deep concern which needs to be addressed. can put a break on this boom. 58 . Some experts have opined that market is trading at 22 to 23 times of actual earning and no one can justify these valuations. All these things. Ironically. Owing to stock market boom. I must say that this boom is not going to last forever as it is dependent on some very volatile factors that may change in the times to come. there is another very interesting situation being faced by Reserve Bank of India(RBI) (the leading central bank which decides various economic policies here just like the Federal Reserve Bank of US. if happen. However.

Investors around the world have taken note of the fact that the broad-based S&P 500 index is at a 16-month low. This leads to a decreased demand for goods and services. The Fed will almost certainly respond with sharp cuts in interest rates towards the end of the month. However. along with European stocks.Causes of recession An economy which grows over a period of time tends to slow down the growth as a part of the normal economic cycle. The markets bounced back after the US Fed cut interest rates. An economy typically expands for 6-10 years and tends to go into a recession for about six months to 2 years. And investors seem to have little faith in the Bush rescue plan's ability to ward off a recession in the US. In the US. The Indian stock markets also crashed due to a slowdown in the US economy. The Sensex crashed by nearly 13 per cent in just two trading sessions in January. it was inevitable that stock markets around the world would start catching the chill. has also punctured a hole in the decoupling argument (which said Asia would not be hit by an America-based problem) that had become fashionable in recent weeks. A recession normally takes place when consumers lose confidence in the growth of the economy and spend less. a recession is yet to be declared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. and the financial sector in particular has been heading from one cold shower to the next. but investors are a worried lot. which in turn leads to a decrease in production. The stock markets reflect the buoyancy of the economy. lay-offs and a sharp rise in unemployment. hitting a 10-month low. The way in which Asian stock prices responded last week to the fall of the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices by 4 per cent. Stock markets & recession The economy and the stock market are closely related. Investors spend less as they fear stocks values will fall and thus stock markets fall on negative sentiment. stock prices are now at a low ebb in India with little cheer coming to investors. but the market has already 59 . When the global economy has been cooling down.

Impact of a US recession on India A slowdown in the US economy is bad news for India. which pulled in a record amount of application money (Rs 1. The floor therefore would probably be a Sensex level of 17.150 billion)). What began with profit-booking and unwinding of long positions cascaded on Friday into a 3.200 crore (Rs 22 billion) in January. Provided the general economic and corporate news does not get worse than has already been anticipated. The question is whether the correction that has occurred so far is enough for fresh buying to emerge. Also relevant was the Reliance Power IPO. and that the industrial sector has suffered a sharp slowdown.5 per cent decline in the Sensex. and FIIs have been net sellers to the tune of Rs 2. 60 . Even after the 10 per cent correction from the market's peak. Even if a third or a fourth of that was being garnered by sale of stocks.15.5. When coupled with the data showing that the export target for the year will be missed by a wide margin. no more. it was inevitable that stock prices would have to come off their dizzy highs. the Sensex trades at an FY09 estimated P/E of 18. Indian markets worst hit It is interesting that Indian markets were hit the most. when compared to the same quarter a year earlier.000-odd -. or whether a further fall is required before value-based buying starts. There is no doubt that valuations had become expensive. among all Asian markets.000 crore (Rs 1. On a forward basis. fresh buyingcannot be very far away. it is a large enough sum for the market to go into correction mode.which would mean wiping out the gains of the past three months. Yet.discounted for that. which is not cheap in anyone's book. Foreign institutional investors had moved to the sidelines in the secondary markets even earlier. buying may soon begin A global liquidity surplus had certainly contributed to momentum buying. This may have been because the correction in the overheated Chinese stock market began some weeks ago. the Sensex trades at a trailing P/E multiple of 24. Investors will also have noticed that the third-quarter corporate numbers show significant deceleration in both sales and profit growth.

There is a big correlation among global markets. Black Monday saw bloodbath on Dalal Street as the Indian stock markets crashed by over 1430 points in afternoon trade (the market has since then recovered somewhat). India's exports to the US have also grown substantially over the years. In contrast. the DJIA was down 30 per cent in December 2002 from the highs it hit in January 2000. One of the primary triggers is the huge fear of the United States' economy going into a recession with foreign institutional investors trying to reallocate their funds from risky emerging markets to stable developed markets. reminding investors that there is no one-way bet on the stock market. The presence of hedge funds across asset classes. The whole of Asia would be hit by a recession as it depends on the US economy.6 per cent. Hedge funds and FIIs could have been the biggest sellers in the Indian markets. The India economy is likely to lose between 1 to 2 percentage points in GDP growth in the next fiscal year. the Sensex was down 45 per cent. while the Sensex fell by 14. there is a change in the global investment climate. booking profits and making the most of the unprecedented bull run that has dominated the Indian stock market for a long time now. Asia is yet to totally decouple itself (or be independent) from the rest of the world. 61 . The current volatility is also linked to global bourses. Indian companies with big tickets deals in the US would see their profit margins shrinking. has increased event-related volatility. the Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 22. A weak dollar could bring more foreign money to Indian markets. say experts. The worries for exporters will grow as rupee strengthens further against the dollar. But experts note that the long-term prospects for India are stable. along with increased global movement of capital. factors.Indian companies have major outsourcing deals from the US. Oil may get cheaper brining down inflation. Analysts are now expecting a cut in US interest rates. One. A recession could bring down oil prices to $70. Between January 2001 and December 2002.7 per cent. If the fall from the record highs reached is taken.

said Vora. on NDTV Profit. 62 . said Mihir Vora of HSBC Mutual Fund. On the global front. India is trading at 65% premium to emerging markets and India is playing catchup with other declining global markets. he said. Analysts expect the markets to continue to be choppy for a while till global liquidity and commodity prices settle in. other emerging markets were down nearly 20% so India is playing catch-up. A combination of global and local factors is affecting this market. he added. There is no need to get very pessimistic that this is the end of equity investing in India.Volatility in commodities markets has also significantly affected equity markets. he said. said Adrian Mowat of JP Morgan. a technical correction in the derivatives segment has perpetrated a larger fall. At current levels it would be a buy call and we would not advise investors to wait to catch the bottom. Also many IPOs have sucked out liquidity from the primary market into the secondary market. he added. on NDTV Profit. The Sensex can fall another 10-15%. With the markets falling. This could be seen as a buying opportunity and we will revisit market valuations after the correction. he added. On the local front there has been a huge build-up in derivatives positions and volatility led to margin calls.

Threat :  Recession  New government  Bubble burst  Fluctuates dollar  Market is providing new opportunities and new options to invest. It becomes high loss when market goes down.Strength:  High return  Large investment  Acquire capital for expanding the business  Secure the future losses Weakness:  High risk  Based on the fluctuation.  Can’t predict future W Opportunity:  Lot of people wants to invest but don’t invest due to insufficient knowledge. prices 63 s: al si O S T n a y .

64 .  Stock market is all about future prediction.”  Comparatively stock market is less risky than the other market and generates more money for the economy  One who have good knowledge in stock market.  It is based on “high risk and high return.Conclusion: Through this research we can conclude that:  Stock market fluctuates by the external environment. may survive in the market and generates profits or good return whether the market is down  Investors should not invest on the basis of rumors they must observe the market condition or trends Indian economy and than invest If they wanna generate good return.  Stock market is very sensitive market.

stockmarkets.209 Journals and magazines JARN. 6.wikipedia.Rik W.icai.tradingstock.com • http://econ. W.bseindia. R. Scott E.org • www.com • The economics times - 65 . Published Feb 2009 • Business today • Business standard Websites: www.com • www.tdd.24. 23. Madhumati page no.7 & 8 Investment Analysis and portfolio management-M Raghunathan.org • http://en.200.26.org • www.Hafer work package no.Bibliography Text books • The Stock Market-The Stock Market .28.Hafer.worldbank. Hein.ltslnewsStock_ExchangesStock.htm www.

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