SUMMER TRAINING PROJECT REPORT

UNDER

PRABATH FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED
ON

“Study of Fluctuations of Indian Stock Market”

SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULLFILMENT OF THE REQUIRMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION OF THE RAJASTHAN TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY, KOTA.

SUPERVISED BY:Mr. S. P. Kabra

SUBMITTED BY :Rahul Jajoo

FACITLITY SUPERVISOR:Ms. Shilpi Kuntal

SUBMITTED TO :DEPARTMENT OF MANAGENENT STUDIES, SWAMI KESHVANAND INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, MANAGEMENT & GRAMOTHAN. JAIPUR

2008-2010

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Certificate

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Acknowledgement

“The completion of any project depends upon the co-operation, coordination and combined efforts of several resources of knowledge, inspiration & energy.” Words fall short acknowledging immense support lent to me yet I will try to give full credit to the deserver's. My sincere thanks goes to Mr. Vikas Shrotriya (HOD DMS) giving me an opportunity to discover more knowledge. I am also thankful to Mr. S. P. Kabra (Director,Prabhat financial services) for his support, guidance and cooperation throughout to accomplish this project also expressing deep sense of gratitude to my Project guide, Ms. Shilpi Kuntal (Lecturer) for her valuable guidance, continuous encouragement and tremendous patience in discussing my problems, have been of the greatest help in bringing out my task in present shape. I am equally grateful to all my other teachers for their complete support. It would be unfair on my part if I do not thank my colleagues for their continuous help without which this work could never have been accomplished. They made me realize the importance of teamwork and also the leadership skills. I am grateful to all of them standing with me and supporting me in this project.

( Rahul Jajoo )

Preface
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it is necessary to invest consciously in the market whatever it is. since it is difficult to assess certainty about future earnings and dividends. Companies tend to smooth dividends. The study of fluctuations of stock market makes the investor aquatinted with the factor affecting the investment and Stock prices can be volatile and some analysts argue that this volatility is excessive. this is the study about the last two year fluctuation in stock market which enables the investor in taking decision regarding investment.In the present situation where stock market is going up and down. The objective of selecting the topic is to know about the market trends of the stock market and the information related to the investment for the future investor. Contents 4 . This study tells the factor which directly or indirectly affects the market and some basic information not only share market but also other market such as derivatives or commodity market for the new investors or the students who have some interest in stock market. This is not easy to prove. Volatile stock prices do not have a major impact on consumption and capital spending since there is a good chance that price movements in one direction may be reversed. so they will be less volatile than stock prices.

Bibliography Executive summary 5 . Conclusion 6.4 Type of Research 2. Core Study 4.5 Scope of Study 2.1.2 Duration of the Project 2. Research Methodology 2.6 Limitation of Study 3.3 Objective of Study 2. Abstract 2. SWOT 5.1 Title of the Study 2.

markets were physical meeting places where buyers and sellers gathered together to trade. seven days a week. in that the government does not intervene in how the market operates. such as specialist markets. particularly if the industry is protected by government legislation. Historically. although they often maintain a physical location for buyers. The number of buyers and sellers involved will have a direct bearing on the price of the good or service to be sold. services. The currency markets are the largest continuously traded markets in the world. Buyers and sellers typically trade goods. services and/ or information. Conversely. governments. These markets may be distorted if a seller gains monopoly power by managing the majority of supply (or indeed if a buyer develops monophony power by managing demand). Twenty four hours a day. clothing and tools. Most stock markets today are primarily electronic networks. banks. Although physical markets are still vital.Free markets operate under ‘laissez-fare’ conditions. With the rising price of oil and food. Markets originally started as marketplaces usually in the center of villages and towns. These interactions define demand and supply characteristics and are therefore fundamental to economies. investors and consumers are buying and selling every currency. for the sale or barter of farm produce. and information. Stock markets have become highly complex markets that allow investors to buy shares in companies or in funds that aggregate companies or industries together. with a number of vendors selling the same kinds of products or services. These kinds of street markets developed into a whole variety of consumer-oriented markets. Some markets are very competitive. Markets can appear spontaneously when there are goods or services to be exchanged. virtual marketplaces supported by IT networks such as the internet have become the largest and most liquid. shopping centers. or even virtual markets such as eBay. leading to massive money flows constantly changing hands. Markets are dependent on two major participants – buyers and sellers. Governments or trade bodies often step in when such distortions undermine the smooth functioning of free markets. sellers and market makers to interact directly. the availability of supply will push down prices. and has become known as the law of supply and demand. If there are more buyers than sellers. some markets have low or no competition. 6 . A market can be defined as a place where any type of trade takes place. supermarkets. or they can be planned and regulated . Where there are more sellers than buyers.A market is an environment that allows buyers and sellers to trade or exchange goods. the increased demand will push up prices.

Albeit it could have been a gamble buying stocks before declaration of election results. it paid off for those who bought. i.e. etc). A number of services can also be associated with these goods.This article is a COMPLETE guide to the basics of making money in the stock market! If you are considering investing in the stock market. gas. coal and increasingly renewable energy sources such as biodiesel). Commodity markets include: energy (oil. corn. So what should a small investor do now? Should he buy stocks or should be selling stocks that he holds. oat. Transactions tend to be wholesale with large quantities of goods being transacted at low prices.commodity markets are once again under the spotlight. on Tuesday. markets opened in red. frozen orange juice. cotton. Capital goods markets help businesses to buy durable goods to be used in industrial and manufacturing processes. Stock markets are going to be volatile for next few days. then recovered and went up to 500 points up and finally settled for flat closing. coffee. rice. soya beans. Commodities underpin economic activity. cocoa. sugar. you MUST read this article! We have explained all the concepts and talked about all the "myths" that people have about the stock market! INTRODUCTION TO THE ORGANIZATION 7 . Now that's history. Everyone has seen it and everyone is wishing if he should have buy stocks before this rally. meat. soft commodities and grains (wheat. went till 3oo points down. and financial commodities such as bonds. Today.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TITLE OF THE STUDY:8 .

The primary purpose for applied research is discovering.“Study of fluctuations of Indian stock market” DURATION OF THE PROJECT:. Scientific research can be subdivided into different classifications according to their academic and application disciplines.  To forecast or predict the future trend of stock market which helps in investment. This research provides scientific information and theories for the explanation of the nature and the properties of the world around us. but need not do so. including many companies.  To get the knowledge of other markets such as commodity market and derivatives. TYPE OF RESEARCH Research Research is defined as human activity based on intellectual application in the investigation of matter. Research can use the scientific method. by charitable organizations and by private groups. 9 .  To know the ups and downs of stock market of last two years. interpreting. Scientific research is funded by public authorities. a harnessing of curiosity. It makes practical applications possible. and the development of methods and systems for the advancement of human knowledge on a wide variety of scientific matters of our world and the universe.  To know the effect of these fluctuation on the Indian economy.45 days OBJECTIVE OF STUDY  To know the basic terminology of stock market. Scientific research relies on the application of the scientific method.  To make the investor aware about the factors which may affect their investment.

but makes use of non-quantitative research methods in describing the conditions of the present. SCOPE OF STUDY  Derivatives  Sebi  Stock exchange  Commodity market  Stock market 10 .In this project the research type used is descriptive because this research is the most commonly used and the basic reason for carrying out descriptive research is to identify the cause of something that is happening. Quantitative descriptive research emphasizes on what is. Qualitative descriptive research also emphasizes on what is. Descriptive research can be of two types: i. However. record. the correlation study which investigates the relationship between variables. to developmental studies which seek to determine changes over time. For instance. analyze and interpret the present conditions. if the research is to return useful results. whoever is conducting the research must comply with strict research requirements in order to obtain the most accurate figures/results possible. this research could be used in order to find out what age group is buying a particular brand of cola. whether a company’s market share differs between geographical regions or to discover how many competitors a company has in their marketplace. DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH Descriptive research is used to obtain information concerning the current status of the phenomena to describe "what exists" with respect to variables or conditions in a situation. and makes use of quantitative methods to describe. The methods involved range from the survey which describes the status quo.

some of them are as under: 1. Secondly. So. Accuracy: The facts and findings of the data cannot be accepted as accurate to some extent as firstly. which a very important factor of this study as conclusion has been derived from this secondary data only. 3. it was not possible to cover it in a short span of time. Time Period: Time period was one of the main factor as only one month was allotted and the topic covered in research has a wide scope. Securities  Day trading  Factor affecting Indian stock market  Effect on Indian economy LIMITATIONS Limitations are the limiting lines that restrict the work in some way or other. 4. 11 .e. this puts a question mark on the reliability of this data. Secondary data means data that are already available i. Data Collection: The most important constraint in this study was data collection as Secondary data was selected for study. they refer to the data which have already been collected and analysed by someone else. because in short period you cannot cover each point accurately. So. secondary data was collected. Reliability: The data collected in research work was secondary data. for doing descriptive research time needed to be more. 2. In this research study also their were some limiting factors.

these are securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately. The liquidity that an exchange provides affords investors the ability to quickly and easily sell securities. The total world derivatives market has been estimated at about $791 trillion face or nominal value. because it is stated in terms of notional values. the Deutsche Börse and the Paris Bourse. This is an attractive feature of investing in stocks. Function and purpose The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise money. as well as on the many regional exchanges. OTCBB and Pink Sheets. the NASDAQ.e. now part of Euronext. a derivative 'bet' on an event occurring is offset by a comparable derivative 'bet' on the event not occurring.) The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are entities a corporation or mutual organization specialized in the business of bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a listing of stocks and securities together. or raise additional capital for expansion by selling shares of ownership of the company in a public market. European examples of stock exchanges include the London Stock Exchange. the vast majority of derivatives 'cancel' each other out (i. The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36.6 trillion US at the beginning of October 2008 . 11 times the size of the entire world economy. Many such relatively illiquid securities are valued as marked to model. rather than an actual market price. 12 . cannot be directly compared to a stock or a fixed income security.Core study Stock market A stock market is a public market for the trading of company stock and derivatives at an agreed price. The value of the derivatives market.. e. Moreover. compared to other less liquid investments such as real estate.g. which traditionally refers to an actual value. The stock market in the United States includes the trading of all securities listed on the NYSE. the Amex. This allows businesses to be publicly traded.).

Share prices also affect the wealth of households and their consumption. hedge funds. Financial stability is the raison d'être of central banks.History has shown that the price of shares and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity. e. on the smooth operation of financial system functions. An economy where the stock market is on the rise is considered to be an up and coming economy. The smooth functioning of all these activities facilitates economic growth in that lower costs and enterprise risks promote the production of goods and services as well as employment. One feature of this development is disintermediation. pension funds. insurance investment of premiums. has been an important component of this process. mutual funds. permitting a 13 . either directly or through mutual funds. compared to less than 20 percent in the 2000s. In this way the financial system contributes to increased prosperity. The major part of this adjustment in financial portfolios has gone directly to shares but a good deal now takes the form of various kinds of institutional investment for groups of individuals. Therefore. A portion of the funds involved in saving and financing flows directly to the financial markets instead of being routed via the traditional bank lending and deposit operations. Statistics show that in recent decades shares have made up an increasingly large proportion of households' financial assets in many countries. etc. meaning that they collect and deliver the shares.. Relation of the stock market to the modern financial system The financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable transformation. Exchanges also act as the clearinghouse for each transaction. The general public's heightened interest in investing in the stock market. Rising share prices. central banks tend to keep an eye on the control and behavior of the stock market and. In fact. for instance.g. The trend towards forms of saving with a higher risk has been accentuated by new rules for most funds and insurance. the stock market is often considered the primary indicator of a country's economic strength and development. in general. and guarantee payment to the seller of a security. deposit accounts and other very liquid assets with little risk made up almost 60 percent of households' financial wealth. and can influence or be an indicator of social mood. In the 1970s. tend to be associated with increased business investment and vice versa. This eliminates the risk to an individual buyer or seller that the counterparty could default on the transaction. in Sweden.

. individual investors. then plummet just as quickly. The following deals with some of the risks of the financial sector in general and the stock market in particular. i. Over the years he has built himself a multi-billion-dollar fortune. or have acquired other 'risky' investments (such as 'investment' property. The stock market. individual investors. Similar tendencies are to be found in other industrialized countries. such as the European Union. and $105. Stock prices skyrocket with little reason. This is certainly more important now that so many newcomers have entered the stock market. and market strategists are all overtaking each other to get investors' attention. Sometimes there appears to be no rhyme or reason to the market. analysts.[4] Buffett began his career with $100. the noise level in the stock market rises. financial writers. real estate and collectables). only folly. in marked contrast to the stability of (government insured) bank deposits or bonds. Television commentators. and people who have turned to investing for their children's education and their own retirement become frightened. but also the economy on a large scale. the United States. 14 . This is a quote from the preface to a published biography about the long-term value-oriented stock investor Warren Buffett.000 from seven limited partners consisting of Buffett's family and friends. despite all this available information. and financial risk Riskier long-term saving requires that an individual possess the ability to manage the associated increased risks. investors find it increasingly difficult to profit. are exchanging questionable and often misleading tips. Yet. In all developed economic systems.higher proportion of shares to bonds.e. With each passing year. At the same time. immersed in chat rooms and message boards. The quote illustrates some of what has been happening in the stock market during the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Japan and other developed nations. Stock prices fluctuate widely. the trend has been the same: saving has moved away from traditional (government insured) bank deposits to more risky securities of one sort or another. This is something that could affect not only the individual investor or household.

and has Northern. The Board comprises[2] Name Mr CB Bhave Designation Chairman SEBI 15 As per CHAIRMAN (S. Eastern. Kolkata.in SEBI is the Regulator for the Securities Market in India. Organization Structure Chandrasekhar Bhaskar Bhave is the sixth chairman of the Securities Market Regulator. it acquired statutory form in 1992 with SEBI Act 1992 being passed by the Indian Parliament. Southern and Western regional offices in New Delhi.gov. he had been the chairman of NSDL (National Securities Depository Limited) ushering in paperless securities. Prior to his stint at NSDL. Maharashtra.Chaired by C B Bhave. Prior to taking charge as Chairman SEBI. . he had served SEBI as a Senior Executive Director. He is a former Indian Administrative Service officer of the 1975 batch.sebi. 2008 - Total Staff[1] 525 Official Website Website www. India 1992 India Chairman C B Bhave February 16. SEBI is headquartered in the popular business district of Bandra-Kurla complex in Mumbai. Originally set up by the Government of India in 1988.4(1)(a) of the SEBI Act. Chennai and Ahmedabad.Securities and Exchange Board of India SEBI Bhavan. Mumbai Headquarters of SEBI Organization Details Headquarters Established Jurisdiction Head Chairman Term Mumbai.

Mr. SEBI 1992) Member (S. 1992) Member (S. Member (S. It drafts regulations in its legislative capacity.1992) Mr KP Krishnan Joint Secretary.4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act. Though this makes it very powerful.4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act. Ministry of Finance Secretary. SEBI has three functions rolled into one body quasi-legislative.4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act. Justice NK Sodhi. quasi-judicial and quasiexecutive. There is a Securities Appellate Tribunal which is a three member tribunal and is presently headed by a former Chief Justice of a High court .4(1)(d) of the SEBI Act. Ministry of Corporate Affairs Member (S.4(1)(b) of the SEBI Act. A second appeal lies directly to the Supreme Court. 16 . 1992) Member (S. Bhopal Whole Time Member. National Judicial Academy. Infosys Functions and Responsibilities SEBI has to be responsive to the needs of three groups. 1992) Member (S. 1992) Dr KM Abraham Whole Time Member. there is an appeals process to create accountability.4(1)(b) of the SEBI Act. 1992) Mr Anurag Goel Dr G Mohan Gopal Mr MS Sahoo Director. it conducts investigation and enforcement action in its executive function and it passes rulings and orders in its judicial capacity. SEBI Mr Mohandas Pai Director. which constitute the market: • • • the issuers of securities the investors the market intermediaries.

Increasingly. Such trading is said to be off exchange or over-the-counter. which gives them advantages of speed and cost of transactions. The initial offering of stocks and bonds to investors is by definition done in the primary market and subsequent trading is done in the secondary market.SEBI has enjoyed success as a regulator by pushing systemic reforms aggressively and successively (e. This is the usual way that derivatives and bonds are traded. as modern markets are electronic networks. this may include the following: 1. Trade on an exchange is by members only. Raising capital for businesses 17 .g. pooled investment products and bonds. nor must stock be subsequently traded on the exchange. A stock exchange is often the most important component of a stock market. as in all free markets. affect the price of stocks (see stock valuation). the quick movement towards making the markets electronic and paperless rolling settlement on T+2 basis). unit trusts. it has to be listed there. (formerly a securities exchange) is a corporation or mutual organization which provides "trading" facilities for stock brokers and traders. SEBI has been active in setting up the regulations as required under law. stock exchanges are part of a global market for securities. to trade stocks and other securities. derivatives. Usually there is a central location at least for recordkeeping. Stock exchange A stock exchange. The role of stock exchanges Stock exchanges have multiple roles in the economy. Stock exchanges also provide facilities for the issue and redemption of securities as well as other financial instruments and capital events including the payment of income and dividends. but trade is less and less linked to such a physical place. There is usually no compulsion to issue stock via the stock exchange itself. The securities traded on a stock exchange include: shares issued by companies. To be able to trade a security on a certain stock exchange. Supply and demand in stock markets is driven by various factors which.

Consequently. often owned by the company founders and/or their families and 18 . resulting in stronger economic growth and higher productivity levels and firms. through dividends and stock price increases that may result in capital gains.Mobilizing savings for investment When people draw their savings and invest in shares. or kept in idle deposits with banks. 3. are mobilized and redirected to promote business activity with benefits for several economic sectors such as agriculture. or acquire other necessary business assets. 4. However. it leads to a more rational allocation of resources because funds.Redistribution of wealth Stock exchanges do not exist to redistribute wealth. it is alleged that public companies (companies that are owned by shareholders who are members of the general public and trade shares on public exchanges) tend to have better management records than privately-held companies (those companies where shares are not publicly traded. hedge against volatility.Facilitating company growth Companies view acquisitions as an opportunity to expand product lines. increase distribution channels. commerce and industry. both casual and professional stock investors. will share in the wealth of profitable businesses.The Stock Exchange provide companies with the facility to raise capital for expansion through selling shares to the investing public.Corporate governance By having a wide and varied scope of owners. A takeover bid or a merger agreement through the stock market is one of the simplest and most common ways for a company to grow by acquisition or fusion. 5. increase its market share. which could have been consumed. companies generally tend to improve on their management standards and efficiency in order to satisfy the demands of these shareholders and the more stringent rules for public corporations imposed by public stock exchanges and the government. 2.

19 . or otherwise by a small group of investors). depression. The issuance of such bonds can obviate the need to directly tax the citizens in order to finance development. 8. Therefore the movement of share prices and in general of the stock indexes can be an indicator of the general trend in the economy. thus loaning money to the government. An economic recession.Barometer of the economy At the stock exchange.heirs. Webvan (2001). share prices rise and fall depending. Therefore the Stock Exchange provides the opportunity for small investors to own shares of the same companies as large investors. and Satyam Computer Services (2009) were among the most widely scrutinized by the media. Adelphia (2002). and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007-08. 7. American International Group (2008).com (2000). Share prices tend to rise or remain stable when companies and the economy in general show signs of stability and growth. are classical examples of corporate mismanagement. However. on market forces. or financial crisis could eventually lead to a stock market crash. investing in shares is open to both the large and small stock investors because a person buys the number of shares they can afford.Tel (2001). although by securing such bonds with the full faith and credit of the government instead of with collateral.Government capital-raising for development projects Governments at various levels may decide to borrow money in order to finance infrastructure projects such as sewage and water treatment works or housing estates by selling another category of securities known as bonds. Companies like Pets. 9. Parmalat (2003). Enron Corporation (2001). These bonds can be raised through the Stock Exchange whereby members of the public buy them. MCI WorldCom (2002).Creating investment opportunities for small investors As opposed to other businesses that require huge capital outlay. the result is that the government must tax the citizens or otherwise raise additional funds to make any regular coupon payments and refund the principal when the bonds mature. The dot-com bubble in the early 2000s. Lehman Brothers (2008). some well-documented cases are known where it is alleged that there has been considerable slippage in corporate governance on the part of some public companies. Sunbeam (2001). largely. One.

is India's first stock market index that enjoys an iconic stature . It migrated from the open outcry system to an online screen-based order driven trading system in 1995. pursuant to the BSE (Corporatisation and Demutualisation) Scheme. What is now popularly known as BSE was established as "The Native Share & Stock Brokers' Association" in 1875. With demutualisation.Bombay Stock Exchange Introduction Bombay Stock Exchange is the oldest stock exchange in Asia with a rich heritage. 2007 stood at USD 1. There is perhaps no major corporate in India which has not sourced BSE's services in raising resources from the capital market. BSE is the world's number 1 exchange in terms of the number of listed companies and the world's 5th in transaction numbers. It is an index of 30 stocks representing 12 major sectors. This agreement has made 20 . BSE has two of world's best exchanges. The BSE Index. and is tracked worldwide. are classified into A. B. The SENSEX is constructed on a 'free-float' methodology. as its strategic partners.700 listed companies. An investor can choose from more than 4. SENSEX. BSE is now a corporatised and demutualised entity incorporated under the provisions of the Companies Act. BSE has entered into an index cooperation agreement with Deutsche Börse. T and Z groups. BSE's pivotal and pre-eminent role in the development of the Indian capital market is widely recognized. which for easy reference. and is sensitive to market sentiments and market realities. 2005 notified by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).79 trillion . now spanning three centuries in its 133 years of existence. BSE is the first stock exchange in the country which obtained permanent recognition (in 1956) from the Government of India under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act 1956. Apart from the SENSEX. Deutsche Börse and Singapore Exchange. including 12 sectoral indices. BSE offers 21 indices. 1956. Earlier an Association Of Persons (AOP). Over the past 133 years. BSE has facilitated the growth of the Indian corporate sector by providing it with an efficient access to resources. Today. S. The market capitalization as on December 31.

While the Directors Database provides a single-point access to information on the boards of directors of listed companies. the global leader in ETFs through its iShares® brand. the ICERS facilitates the corporates in sharing with BSE their corporate announcements. It is also the first exchange in the country and second in the world to receive Information Security Management System Standard BS 7799-2-2002 certification for its BSE On-line Trading System (BOLT). It has successfully launched a reporting platform for corporate bonds in India christened the ICDM or Indian Corporate Debt Market and a unique ticker-cum-screen aptly named 'BSE Broadcast' which enables information dissemination to the common man on the street. SPIcE allows small investors to take a long-term view of the market. called "SPIcE" is listed on BSE. BSE provides an efficient and transparent market for trading in equity. BSE continues to innovate. The ETF enables investors in Hong Kong to take an exposure to the Indian equity market. hedging and arbitrage. The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) on SENSEX. Moreover. In 2006. BSE has always been at par with the international standards. BSE launched the Directors Database and ICERS (Indian Corporate Electronic Reporting System) to facilitate information flow and increase transparency in the Indian capital market. trading.SENSEX and other BSE indices available to investors in Europe and America. It has a nation-wide reach with a presence in more than 359 cities and towns of India. Barclays Global Investors (BGI). The systems and processes are designed to safeguard market integrity and enhance transparency in operations. In recent times. BSE also has a wide range of services to empower investors and facilitate smooth transactions: 21 . has created the 'iShares® BSE SENSEX India Tracker' which tracks the SENSEX. it has become the first national level stock exchange to launch its website in Gujarati and Hindi to reach out to a larger number of investors. It brings to the investors a trading tool that can be easily used for the purposes of investment. BSE is the first exchange in India and the second in the world to obtain an ISO 9001:2000 certification. debt instruments and derivatives.

com: In February 2001. it is an amount higher than that of any exchange in the country.1 million towards the investor protection fund.000 people have attended the BTI programmes Awards The World Council of Corporate Governance has awarded the Golden Peacock Global CSR Award for BSE's initiatives in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The BSE On-line Trading (BOLT): BSE On-line Trading (BOLT) facilitates on-line screen based trading in securities. BSE introduced the world's first centralized exchangebased Internet trading system.com. • The Annual Reports and Accounts of BSE for the year ended March 31.Investor Services: The Department of Investor Services redresses grievances of investors. BSE Training Institute: BTI imparts capital market training and certification. BSE was the first exchange in the country to provide an amount of Rs. BSE launched a nationwide investor awareness programme. It offers over 40 courses on various aspects of the capital market and financial sector. More than 20.'Safe Investing in the Stock Market' under which 264 programmes were held in more than 200 cities. BSEWEBX. BOLT is currently operating in 25. This initiative enables investors anywhere in the world to trade on the BSE platform. BSEWEBX. 22 . Surveillance: BSE's On-Line Surveillance System (BOSS) monitors on a real-time basis the price movements. in collaboration with reputed management institutes and universities. volume positions and members' positions and real-time measurement of default risk. 2006 and March 31 2007 have been awarded the ICAI awards for excellence in financial reporting. market reconstruction and generation of cross market alerts.000 Trader Workstations located across over 359 cities in India.

It comprised 100 stocks listed at five major stock exchanges in India . BSE launched the dollar-linked version of BSE-100 index on May 22. BSE. came out with a Stock Index-SENSEX. larger market capitalization and the new industry sectors. Over the decades. The launch of SENSEX in 1986 was later followed up in January 1989 by introduction of BSE National Index (Base: 1983-84 = 100). The BSE National Index was renamed BSE-100 Index from October 14. History For the premier stock exchange that pioneered the securities transaction business in India..• The Human Resource Management at BSE has won the Asia . 1996 and since then. the stock market in the country has passed through good and bad periods.Mumbai. segment-specific and sector-specific indices. Ahmedabad and Madras. A lot has changed since 1875 when 318 persons by paying a then princely amount of Re. health management at work and excellence in HR through technology Drawing from its rich past and its equally robust performance in the recent times. the 'BSE-200' and the 'DOLLEX-200'. Since then. In order to fulfill the need for still broader. With a view to provide a better representation of the increasing number of listed companies. BSE has continuously 23 . 2006.Pacific HRM awards for its efforts in employer branding through talent management at work. there was no measure or scale that could precisely measure the various ups and downs in the Indian stock market. became members of what today is called Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE). in 1986. BSE launched on 27th May. it is being calculated taking into consideration only the prices of stocks listed at BSE. Till the decade of eighties. over a century of experience is a proud achievement. BSE will continue to remain an icon in the Indian capital market. BSE has come a long way in attuning itself to the varied needs of investors and market participants. The journey in the 20th century has not been an easy one. Calcutta. 1994 two new index series viz.that subsequently became the barometer of the Indian stock market. 1. Delhi.

been increasing the range of its indices. BSE-500 Index and 5 sectoral indices were launched in 1999. In 2001, BSE launched BSE-PSU Index, DOLLEX-30 and the country's first free-float based index - the BSE TECk Index. Over the years, BSE shifted all its indices to the free-float methodology

National Stock Exchange of India
National Stock Exchange Limited

Type Location

Stock Exchange Mumbai, India 19°3′37″N 72°51′35″E/19.06028°N 72.85972°E/19.06028; 72.85972

Coordinates

Owner Key people Currency No. of listings MarketCap

National Stock Exchange of India Limited Mr. Ravi Narain (Managing Director & CEO) INR 1587 US$ 1.46 trillion (2006) S&P CNX Nifty

Indexes

CNX Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500

Website

http://www.nse-india.com/

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NSE is mutually-owned by a set of leading financial institutions, banks, insurance companies and The National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), is a Mumbai-based stock exchange. It is the largest stock exchange in India in terms of daily turnover and number of trades, for both equities and derivative trading.[1]. Though a number of other exchanges exist, NSE and the Bombay Stock Exchange are the two most significant stock exchanges in India, and between them are responsible for the vast majority of share transactions. The NSE's key index is the S&P CNX Nifty, known as the Nifty, an index of fifty major stocks weighted by market capitalisation. other financial intermediaries in India but its ownership and management operate as separate entities. There are at least 2 foreign investors NYSE Euronext and Goldman Sachs who have taken a stake in the NSE. As of 2006[update], the NSE VSAT terminals, 2799 in total, cover more than 1500 cities across India . In October 2007, the equity market capitalization of the companies listed on the NSE was US$ 1.46 trillion, making it the second largest stock exchange in South Asia. NSE is the third largest Stock Exchange in the world in terms of the number of trades in equities. It is the second fastest growing stock exchange in the world with a recorded growth of 16.6%. Origins NSE building at BKC The National Stock Exchange of India was promoted by leading Financial institutions at the behest of the Government of India, and was incorporated in November 1992 as a tax-paying company. In April 1993, it was recognized as a stock exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. NSE commenced operations in the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) segment in June 1994. The Capital Market (Equities) segment of the NSE commenced operations in November 1994, while operations in the Derivatives segment commenced in June 2000. Innovations

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NSE has remained in the forefront of modernization of India's capital and financial markets, and its pioneering efforts include:

Being the first national, anonymous, electronic limit order book (LOB) exchange to trade securities in India. Since the success of the NSE, existent market and new market structures have followed the "NSE" model.

Setting up the first clearing corporation "National Securities Clearing Corporation Ltd." in India. NSCCL was a landmark in providing innovation on all spot equity market (and later, derivatives market) trades in India.

Co-promoting and setting up of National Securities Depository Limited, first depository in India[2]. Setting up of S&P CNX Nifty. NSE pioneered commencement of Internet Trading in February 2000, which led to the wide popularization of the NSE in the broker community. Being the first exchange that, in 1996, proposed exchange traded derivatives, particularly on an equity index, in India. After four years of policy and regulatory debate and formulation, the NSE was permitted to start trading equity derivatives

• •

Being the first and the only exchange to trade GOLD ETFs (exchange traded funds) in India. NSE has also launched the NSE-CNBC-TV18 media centre in association with CNBCTV18, it is the one of the most important stock exchange in the world.

S&P CNX Nifty
S&P CNX Nifty is a well diversified 50 stock index accounting for 21 sectors of the economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index based derivatives and index funds.

S&P CNX Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products Ltd. (IISL), which
26

this tells you that the stock price of most of the major stocks on the BSE have gone down.68% of the traded value of all stocks on the NSE Nifty stocks represent about 65. There are other stock exchanges like the Calcutta Stock Exchange etc.2 crore is 0. The The Sensex Nifty is is an an indicator indicator of of all all the the major major companies companies of of the the BSE. • The total traded value for the last six months of all Nifty stocks is approximately 65. These are the major stock exchanges in the country. IISL has a Marketing and licensing agreement with Standard & Poor's (S&P). Just like the Sensex represents the top stocks of the BSE. 2009.34% of the total market capitalization as on Mar 31. . who are world leaders in index services. it means that the prices of the stocks of most of the major companies on the BSE have gone up. If the Sensex goes down. the Nifty represents the top stocks of the NSE. Just in case you are confused.is a joint venture between NSE and CRISIL. but they are not as popular as the BSE and the NSE. The BSE is situated at Bombay and the NSE is situated at Delhi. the BSE.16% S&P CNX Nifty is professionally maintained and is ideal for derivatives trading • • • Sensex & the Nifty The Sensex is an "index". IISL is India's first specialised company focused upon the index as a core product. If the Sensex goes up. is the Bombay Stock Exchange and the NSE is the National Stock Exchange. What is an index? An index is basically an indicator. It gives you a general idea about whether most of the stocks have gone up or most of the stocks have gone down. Impact cost of the S&P CNX Nifty for a portfolio size of Rs.Most of the stock trading in the country is done 27 though the BSE & the NSE. NSE.

The reasons for stock prices going "up" and "down" Stock prices change every day because of market forces. This is called the “BSE Mid-cap Index”. you have to figure out what news is positive for a company and what news is negative and how any news about a company will be interpreted by the people. Dalal Street watches with great attention at these times. If a company's results are better than expected. What is difficult to understand is what makes people like a particular stock and dislike another stock. and the price would fall. if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it. you will know what people are buying and what people are selling. If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply). which are referred to as earnings seasons. Public companies are required to report their earnings four times a year (once each quarter). Earnings are the profit a company makes. it isn't going to stay in business. there would be greater supply than demand. If a company's results disappoint and are worse than expected. 28 then the price will fall. The reason behind this is that analysts base their future value of a company on their earnings projection. The most important factor that affects the value of a company is its earnings. and in the long run no company can survive without them. (Basics of economics!) Understanding supply and demand is easy. It makes sense when you think about it. If you know this you will know what prices go up and what prices go down! To figure out the likes and dislikes of people. the price jumps up. If you understand this. . By this we mean that stock prices change because of “supply and demand”. then the price moves up! Conversely.Besides Sensex and the Nifty there are many other indexes. If a company never makes money. There is an index that gives you an idea about whether the mid-cap stocks go up and down.

is called the initial public offering (IPO). On the other hand. for example. which is known as issuing stock. Still. The reasons for which companies issue stocks Why would the founders share the profits with thousands of people when they could keep profits to themselves? The reason is that at some point every company needs to "raise money". and most internet companies saw their values shrink to a fraction of their highs. these high stock prices did not hold. All that the shareholders get in return for their money is the hope that the shares will someday be worth more than what they paid for them. companies can either borrow it from somebody or raise it by selling part of the company. To do this. Issuing stock is advantageous for the company because it does not require the company to pay back the money or make interest payments along the way. while others think that by drawing charts and looking at past price movements. The first sale of a stock. issuing stock is called “equity financing”. the stock price of dozens of internet companies rose without ever making even the smallest profit. As we all know. you can determine when to buy and sell. It is important that you understand the distinction between a company financing through 29 . It would be a rather simple world if this were the case! During the “dotcom bubble”. which is issued by the private company itself. The only thing we do know is that stocks are volatile and can change in price very very rapidly. it's not just earnings that can change the feeling people have about a stock. A company can borrow by taking a loan from a bank or by issuing bonds. So. this fact demonstrates that there are factors other than current earnings that influence stocks. what are "all the factors" that affect the stocks price? The best answer is that nobody really knows for sure. Both methods come under "debt financing".Of course. Some believe that it isn't possible to predict how stock prices will change.

now we will go into stock picking and how to pick the right stock. Stock Picking –Having understood all the basics of the stock market and the risk involved. Fundamental Analysis 2. technical analysis is the study of prices and volume. to try and figure out what the stock price is going to be like in the future. Simply put. Technical analysis is a little more complicated. fundamental analysis looks at the actual company and tries to figure out what the company price is going to be like in the future. but they also stand to lose their entire investment if the company isn't successful. Before picking the right stock you need to do some analysis. When you buy a debt investment such as a bond. you are guaranteed the return of your money (the principal) along with promised interest payments. neither is a shareholder. you assume the risk of the company not being successful . This isn't the case with an equity investment. so explaining technical analysis is out of the scope of this article. On the other hand technical analysis look at the stocks chart. Calculation of BSE SENSEX… 30 .debt and financing through equity. Technical Analysis Fundamental analysis is the analysis of a stock on the basis of core financial and economic analysis to predict the movement of stocks price. It depends more on experience and involves some statistics and mathematics. There are two major types of analysis: 1. peoples buying behavior etc.just as a small business owner isn't guaranteed a return. In this article we will go into the basics of “fundamental analysis”. Shareholders earn a lot if a company is successful. It is much more of an "art" than a science. By becoming an owner. for forecasting of future stock price or financial price movements. On the other hand.

This article explains how the value of the “BSE Sensex” or “sensitive index” is calculated. Relying on the advice of others. Make sure you dig in and really examine the "facts about the companies" 31 . The Sensex has a very important function. If they can get enough people to buy the stock and they can get the stock price to rise. It is calculated using the “free-float market capitalization” method. : Don't even consider "tips" that tell you about "hot stocks". or generally going down. This is done to make the Sensex an accurate index and so that it represents the BSE stocks properly. they will sell the stock for a huge price. It is supposed to show whether the stocks are generally going up. If you are not sure what we mean by the Sensex or what the Sensex is all about. To show this accurately. Please note: The method used for calculating the Sensex and the 30 companies that are taken into consideration are changed from time to time. the stock price will crash and they will walk off to promote another stock. You must always use your own brain. For people who are not “on the inside”. This is a world wide accepted method as one of the best methods for calculating a stock market index. the Sensex is calculated taking into consideration stock prices of 30 different BSE listed companies. the stock market can be a VERY dangerous place. The stock market is a field dominated by savvy investors who know the ins-and-outs of the market. Consider the source: There are many people in the market who put in all their time and effort in promoting certain stocks. The Sensex is supposed to be an indicator of the stocks in the BSE. is almost always a complete disaster. They do this because they have their money invested in those stocks. 3 important things you must know and follow as an new investor! You need to KNOW some “unforgettable basics” before you enter the world of investing in stocks. no matter how well intentioned it may be. Always use your own brain: It's extremely important. you can find this out by reading our “How to make money in the stock market?” article.

The legal terms of a contract are much more varied and flexible than the terms of property ownership. And finally the most important tip!!! Only invest money you can afford to lose!! Sure this is a basic point. the underlying asset. But if you are a new investor. you will basically not loose too much! Derivatives Commodities whose value is derived from the price of some underlying asset like securities. commodities. this means you buy a promise to convey ownership of the asset. By following these rules. rather than the asset itself. but in many cases. you MUST follow these rules. it’s this flexibility that appeals to investors 32 . You should only invest money that you can honestly afford to lose!! Everyone enters into investments with the idea of earning big profits. but many many people miss it. bullion. this never works. It is a generic term for a variety of financial instruments. make some bad decisions and then only will you really understand the market. stock market index or anything else are known as “Derivatives”. Essentially. derivatives are financial security such as an option or future whose value is derived in part from the value and characteristics of another security. You will have to loose some money. They are for your own safety. and rely on "hype" to tell the company's story. In more simpler form. nothing comes free. (Especially if you are new to investing in the stock market!) Please understand that the above tips are tips for beginners. Ignore press releases which have very little substance. Once you really get into the stock market you do not need to follow these rules anymore.before you invest. interest level. In fact. You cannot understand the market by just looking at it from far. currency. But then again. Everything has a price.

But derivatives are usually contracts. derivatives – wittingly or unwittingly. or currency. The other examples of derivatives are warrants and convertible bonds (similar to shares in that they are assets). the owner of a ‘futures’ contract is obligated to buy or sell the asset. ‘Futures’ and ‘options’ are two commodity traded types of derivatives. An ‘options’ contract gives the owner the right to buy or sell an asset at a set price on or before a given date. He bet that the value derived from the underlying asset will increase or decrease by a certain amount within a certain fixed period of time. It is likely that any person who has funds invested. the underlying asset is usually a commodity. and exposed to. the derivatives range is only limited by the imagination of investment banks. Derivatives securities or derivatives products are in real terms contracts rather than solid as it fairly sounds. Beyond this. When a person invests in derivative. stock. they will be usually be fairly standardised and governed by the property of securities laws in an appropriate country. bond. a contract is merely an agreement between two parties.. an insurance policy or a pension fund. Shares or bonds are financial assets where one can claim on another person or corporation. On the other hand. where the contract details may not be standardized. On the other hand. that they are investing in. India Commodity Market 33 .

• In recent years. India Commodity Market can be subdivided into the following two categories: • • Wholesale Market Retail Market Let us now take a look at what the present scenario of each of the above markets is like. acted as mere parasites who did not add any value to the product but raised its price which was eventually faced by the consumers. It was the retailers who finally sold the goods to the consumers. The improvement in transport facilities made the retailers directly interact with the producers and hence the need for whole sellers was not felt. Moreover. The organized sector on the other hand are owned by various business houses like Pantaloons. The cost of goods is estimated in terms of domestic currency . The unorganized retail outlets of the yesteryears consist of small shop owners who are price takers where consumers face a highly competitive price structure. we shall deal with the former in a little detail.the extent of the retail market (both organized and unorganized) has evolved in leaps and bounds. Almost every commodity under the sun both agricultural and industrial are now being provided at well distributed retail outlets throughout the country. With the passage of time the importance of whole sellers began to fade out for the following reasons: • The whole sellers in most situations. The broadest classification of the Indian Market can be made in terms of the commodity market and the bond market.The vast geographical extent of India and her huge population is aptly complemented by the size of her market. Tata and others. Such markets are social institutions that facilitate exchange of goods for money. the retail outlets belong to both the organized as well as the unorganized sector. Such 34 . Here. the success stories of the commodity market of India in recent years has mainly centered around the growth generated by the Retail Sector. Reliance. The commodity market in India comprises of all palpable markets that we come across in our daily lives. The traditional wholesale market in India dealt with whole sellers who bought goods from the farmers and manufacturers and then sold them to the retailers after making a profit in the process. In fact.

Although the stock market is associated with high risks and high returns . The money market deals with very short term debt securities that mature in less than a year. edible and inedible. Money Market When the stock prices show a downward trend . the total valuation of the Indian Retail Market is estimated to cross Rs. then it becomes risky to keep savings there. Treasury Bills and 35 . Considering the present growth rate. it yields very low returns unlike the bond market. Transactions take place over phone or the electronic system. perishable and durable. 10. However the growth of such markets has still centered around the urban areas primarily due to infrastructural limitations. Modern marketing strategies and other techniques of sales promotion enable such markets to draw customers from every section of the society.markets are usually sell a wide range of articles both agricultural and manufactured. Since the money market is extremely safe. Demand for commodities is likely to become four times by 2010 than what it presently is. many are risk averse and prefer to invest in the more secure money market . One may browse through the following links to have a more detailed information about money market. The money market securities that are issued by the government or financial institutions or large corporations are very liquid. Unlike the stock exchanges the money market securities do not operate in exchanges or through brokers.000 billion by the year 2010. Since the money market securities trade at very high denominations it becomes very difficult for the individual investors to have access to it. The money market is a type of a dealer market where firms purchase securities in their own account by assuming the risks themselves. Money Market Definition Money Market Definition is simply meant as the short-term debt market.

Demand AND SUPPLY One of the major factors affecting stock price is demand and supply. Find detailed on the world money market. then the price of that particular stock increases. which renders a clear-cut idea on making investment. Market Cap 36 . you should be very careful when you decide to invest in the Indian stock market. then the price of that stock falls. Money Market Index Money Market Index is a true indicator of the prevailing money market. When people are buying more stocks. Major Factors That Affect Stock Price in stock market globally When you wish to invest in the stock market. As you know that you cannot predict the stock market. so in that case you need to know the functioning of the market.certificate of deposits are regarded as the instruments in the money market. The trend of the stock market trading directly affects the price. rates on bankers' acceptance etc. then you should always make a good survey of the whole market. So. Money Market Rates Money Market Rates can be simply defined as the market rates including the broker call loan rate. On the other hand if people are selling more stocks. Get the method of finding the money market rates. There are some major factors that affect stock price. So let us discuss about the different factors affecting the stock price in this article. World Money Market World Money Market has been providing origination. trading and the distribution of short-term debt instruments across different regions over the world. federal funds rate.

“small-cap” and “large-cap” stocks. Earning/Price Ratio 37 .705. how do YOU calculate the market cap of a particular company? You don’t! Just go to a website like MoneyControl.170. So. simply multiply the “current share price” by the “number of shares issued by the company”! Just to give you an idea. what is the amount you would have to pay? That amount is called the “market capitalization”! To calculate the market cap of a particular company.21 Cr” (when this article was written) Depending on the value of the market cap. you are talking about market capitalization! Market cap or market capitalization is simply the worth of a company in terms of it’s shares! To put it in a simple way. So market cap is another factor that affects stock price. You should always keep in mind that it is not the stock but the market capitalization of the company that determines the worth of the company. when there is a negative press release. On the other hand. News When you get positive news about a company then it can increase the buying interest in the market. news is another factor affecting stock price. "Market Capitalization"? You probably think that you have never heard of the term “market capitalization” before. the company will either be a “mid-cap” or “largecap” or “small-cap” company! Now the question is.Never try to guess the worth of a company simply by comparing the price of the stock. it can ruin the prospect of a stock. if you were to buy all the shares of a particular company. In this case you should remember that news should not matter much but the overall performance of the company matters more. Cap” will be the market cap value. ONGC. has a market cap of “Rs. You have! When you are talking about “mid-cap”.com and look up the company whose market cap you are interested in finding out! The figure in front of “Mkt.

suited to different day trader personalities. currencies. But if this is the case. options. Most day trading systems have a lot of flexibility. individual traders now have direct access to the same exchanges and market data. The stock becomes overvalued if the price is much higher than the actual earning. these are the major factors that affect stock price. The styles range from short term trading such as scalping where positions are only held for a few seconds or minutes. then it has the potential to rise in the near future. such as futures. and can make the same trades at very low cost. Day trading differs slightly from other styles of trading in that positions are rarely (if ever) held overnight or when the market being traded is closed. So. Trading Styles There are several different styles of day trading.Another important factor affecting stock price is the earning/price ratio. Some day traders will trade multiple styles. Day trading was originally only available to financial companies (such as banks). and can have open positions for anywhere from a few minutes to a few hours. Day Trading Day trading (and trading in general) is the buying and selling of various financial instruments. because only they had access to the exchanges and market data. The stock becomes undervalued if the price of the share is much lower than the earnings of a company. to longer term swing and position trading where a position may be held throughout the trading day. with the goal of making a profit from the difference between the buying price and the selling price. This gives you a fair idea of a company’s share price when it is compared to its earnings. 38 . But with recent technology such as the Internet. but most traders will choose a single style and only take that type of trade. and stocks. depending upon how the trade is doing (whether it is in profit).

and the desired goal of making a profit.e. and ranging trades.881 million. India attracted total foreign investments of US $ 15. In addition to the style and type of day trading.e. and choose which one to trade depending upon the current condition of the market. Current State of the Indian Economy: Capital Inflows During the April-January period of 2008-09. while others prefer to wait for what they consider the best conditions for their trade. are the same. Some day traders like to make many trades throughout the trading day. However many trades are made. selling if the price is moving up). and perhaps only make one trade per day. Trend trades are trades in the direction of the current price movement (i. buying if the price is moving up). there are other variances between day traders. counter-trend trades. such as trend trades. Most day traders will choose a single type of trade.Day trading also has different types of trade. and are used when the market is moving sideways. Monthly trends in foreign investments ($ million) Total foreign investments 200708(P) 3617 3972 Months Foreign direct investments Portfolio investments 2007-08(P) 2008-09(P) 2007-08(P) 2008-09(P) 2008-09(P) April May 1643 2120 3749 3932 39 1974 1852 -880 -288 2869 3644 . but some traders will take different types. the trading process that is used.545 million. and counter-trend trades are trades against the direction of the current price movement (i. The foreign direct investment (FDI) stood at US $ 27.426 million. while the portfolio investment stood at US $ -11. Ranging trades are trades that go back and forth between two prices.

79 = 100) AveragHigh e 1 2 3 4 5 6 40 (Base : 1983 .e. Nifty has been rechristened as ' S & P CNX Nifty with effect BSE Sensitive Index BSE . 1995 = 1000) Aver. i.100 S & P CNX Nifty * (Base : 1978 .June July August September October November December January February March AprilJanuary 1238 705 831 713 2027 1864 1558 1767 5670 4438 2392 2247 2328 2562 1497 1083 1362 2733 - 3664 6713 -2875 7081 9564 -107 5294 6739 -8904 -1600 -3010 -492 593 -1403 -5243 -574 30 -614 - 4902 7418 -2044 7794 11591 1757 6852 8506 -3234 2838 -618 1755 2921 1159 -3746 509 1392 2119 - - 27426 - -11881 - 15545 Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Stock Market Trends * NSE ..50.84 = 100) Average High Low (Base : November 3.High age 7 8 9 10 Low Low .

5 18663.59 9240.79 4739.49 8363.35 7860.33 16729.21 3210.01 5328.92 14048.Jan-08 19325.67 4124.93 8674.00 3850.94 4443.9 17378.16945.45 Jan-09 9350.02 4901.74 4463.8 15049.48 7362.56 5432.67 8509.6 17600.94 10526.32 6580.01 9435.60 9969.30 08 5 June.91 5195.60 7909.16 16608.10 08 8 Apr-0816290.59 8785.28 12575.56 5483.50 2895.35 6287.1 14942.12 16275.46 15343.05 08 1 Oct-08 10549.14997.17 2834.79 3148.62 7029.80 3077.25 4 Mar.36 3121.30 5 Feb-08 17727.92 6776.64 5756.57 8095.84 2854.15 Dec-08 9513.84 5028.75 8101.40 4214.35 4802.55 41 .20 9348.59 8982.54 11509.36 5396.45 2678.96 10631.09 4332.88 5201.1 15503.50 4647.85 4899.90 4838.87 4343.86 12595.70 08 8 Aug-0814722.95 4441.00 9 May.50 2656.42 10335.91 8739.23 7828.00 4503.12 8627.12 8451.6 20873.71 7760.55 08 8 July.22 3950.13942.80 3816.58 8907.87 6564.3 16677.28 8488.20 4835.2 16063.58 10099.50 4953.00 3 Sept.60 4476.13716.66 5228.18 13461.69 4504.55 5181.88 14809.15838.64 8621.01 4823.12 4620.75 2524.75 7276.6 13055.24 4864.60 4040.96 8895.01 4769.25 2553.06 4206.49 4417.20 5 Nov-089453.34 7704.80 7143.

13 921.14 11.30 17.45 123.66 4.622.919.692.79 4.112.77 756.99 7.53 2.120.70 High 17.485.90 2.27 6. crore) Total Mkt Cap 2.450.987.13 3.744.06 2.683.490.99 253.746.64 8.408.74 5.12 BSE Sectoral Indices AUTO BANKEX CD CG FMCG HC IT METAL OIL&GAS POWER PSU REALTY 4.802.346.19 7.54 2.85 11.36 10.20 95.52 94.23 2.251.75 2.91 1.803.899.53 373.77 533.92 1.02 6.59 86.36 182.54 4.060.25 1.77 7.38 3.62 7.82 42 137.85 29.77 65.042.93 8.907.516.990.41 3.42 8.04 0.85 4.86 977.24 13.917.05 13.94 11.774.505.472.62 8.18 1.875.56 663.43 5.27 2.04 104.274.65 8.569.081.312.24 7.38 668.32 4.38 .949.77 5.598.65 906.750.393.866.63 7.890.90 2.864.68 5.16 2.516.91 2.46 47.157.46 9.64 Turnover % to Total Turnover 31.748.27 284.98 2.08 623.528.161.925.28 6.293.45 1.43 4.897.96 9.398.411.18 9.547.31 184.367.77 660.93 2.853.01 2.71 807.86 1.863.602.162.806.127.60 2.88 3.37 3.20 3.54 211.29 (Rs.70 202.34 7.88 0.39 272.186.39 2.10 3.57 8.607.805.53 2.28 Full Market Capitalisation % to (Rs.95 12.427.262.888.06 9.15 4.330.17 31.361.94 12.69 76.697.02 735.28 1.59 17.60 128.18 7.86 3.24 3.102.81 3.208.60 4.240.18 4.809.60 11.58 407.673.40 48.52 Week INDICES Close SENSEX MIDCAP SMLCAP BSE-100 BSE-200 BSE-500 14.638.001.74 1.428.60 8.688.297.874.853.285.019. crore) 2.549.08 Low 7.75 5.69 82.741.66 3.38 1.

41 1.99 12.82 0.TECk BSE Dollex Indices DOLLEX-30 DOLLEX100 DOLLEX200 2.64 1.91 2. Trends in Inflation 43 .582.638.59 0.618.00 --- --- --- --- 591.328.472.32 3.664.67 750.72 3.423.13 2.58 841.77 570.227.15 8.00 -- -- -- -- Note : The market capitalisation of all the indices is free float market capitalisation except for BSEPSU.00 0.

72 330.88 314.32 179.30 July 204.00 173.76 211.10 171.05 324.90 315.94 177.76 326.00 August 205.73 175.63 320.50 171.05 June 203.08 175.76 May 201.43 192.78 310. Light & Lubricants Manufactured Products 2006 January 196. Power.02 195.90 April 199.02 202.30 194.30 200.(1) Index Numbers Of Wholesale Prices in India ( Monthly Averages) (Base: 1993-94 = 100) Year Month All Commodities Primary Articles Fuel.80 177.75 191.28 February 196.28 204.84 317.40 March 196.10 205.83 September 207.80 171.08 44 .93 328.

0857. The 45 . typically via brokers. Foreign currencies are constantly and simultaneously bought and sold across local and global markets and traders' investments increase or decrease in value based upon currency movements. An enormous liquid market making it easy to trade most currencies. Leveraged trading with low margin requirements.S. The ability to profit in rising or falling markets. For example. dollar. Standard instruments for controlling risk exposure. Volatile markets offering profit opportunities. Foreign exchange market conditions can change at any time in response to real-time events. 2003 was 1. he would have paid 1085. Many options for zero commission trading. the exchange rate of EUR/USD on Aug 26th. which means that the value of the euro (the numerator of the EUR/USD ratio) increased in relation to the U.2083.70 U. If the investor had bought 1000 euros on that date.S.Forex An overview of the Forex market The Forex market is a non-stop cash market where currencies of nations are traded. Forex trading or currency trading is always done in currency pairs. the Forex rate was 1. The main enticements of currency dealing to private investors and attractions for short-term Forex trading are:        24-hour trading. 5 days a week with non-stop access to global Forex dealers. Forex trading The investor's goal in Forex trading is to profit from foreign currency movements. One year later. This number is also referred to as a "Forex rate" or just "rate" for short. dollars.

the investor would have USD 122. but both can be useful forecast tools for the Forex trader. Forex-Forecasting This article provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to forecast the behavior of the Forex market. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis differ greatly. the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end. you must sell back the other currency in order to lock in a profit. However.S. Many successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for superior results. At the very minimum. In other words. trade only when you expect the currency you are buying to increase in value relative to the currency you are selling. rather.S. the return on investment (ROI) should be compared to the return on a "risk-free" investment. However.30 dollars. government bonds since there is practically no chance for a default. it is estimated that anywhere from 70%-90% of the FX market is speculative. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually 46 .investor could now sell the 1000 euros in order to receive 1208. to know if the investor made a good investment. one needs to compare this investment option to alternative investments. Therefore. When trading currencies. They have the same goal . An open trade (also called an open position) is a trade in which a trader has bought or sold a particular currency pair and has not yet sold or bought back the equivalent amount to close the position. they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency.to predict a price or movement.e. One example of a risk-free investment is long-term U.60 more than what he had started one year earlier. government going bankrupt or being unable or unwilling to pay its debt obligation. i. the U. If the currency you are buying does increase in value. The technician studies the effect while the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. Analysis Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action.

However. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously. Market action discounts everything! This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it. open-closing) Trends (following moving average). 3. political factors and market sentiment.: Relative Strength Index (RSI) Number theory (Fibonacci numbers. Technical analysis is built on three essential principles: 1. there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis. Some major technical analysis tools are described below: Relative Strength Index (RSI): 47 . Forex charts are based on market action involving price. and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements. e. supply and demand. Also.g. History repeats itself Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time. not with the reasons for any changes. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. 2.happened in the market. Prices move in trends Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant. Gann numbers) Waves (Elliott wave theory) Gaps (high-low. for example. rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading. There are five categories in Forex technical analysis theory:      Indicators (oscillators.

If the RSI is 70 or greater.. which is 38%. Conversely. Stochastic oscillator: This is used to indicate overbought/oversold conditions on a scale of 0-100%.5. Divergence between the stochastic lines and the price action of the underlying instrument gives a powerful trading signal. The indicator is based on the observation that in a strong up trend. then the instrument is assumed to be overbought (a situation in which prices have risen more than market expectations). %K and %D that are used to indicate overbought/oversold areas of a chart. The inverse of 62%. The MACD line is the difference between two exponential moving averages and the signal or trigger line. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): This indicator involves plotting two momentum lines.21. which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number.3.) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. An RSI of 30 or less is taken as a signal that the instrument may be oversold (a situation in which prices have fallen more than the market expectations). If the MACD and trigger lines cross. Stochastic calculations produce two lines.The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the calculation so that the index is expressed in a range of 0-100.34. Number theory: Fibonacci numbers: The Fibonacci number sequence (1. which is an exponential moving average of the difference. as prices fall in a strong down trend. 48 . then this is taken as a signal that a change in the trend is likely.. The ratio of any number to the next larger number is 62%. is also used as a Fibonacci retracement number.2.1. period closing prices tend to concentrate in the higher part of the period's range.13.8. closing prices tend to be near to the extreme low of the period range.

D. An up gap is formed when the lowest price on a trading day is higher than the highest high of the previous day. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range. it is also called a measuring gap. It usually signals the beginning of an important price move. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend reversal. Waves Elliott wave theory: The Elliott wave theory is an approach to market analysis that is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci number sequence.Gann numbers: W. Gaps Gaps are spaces left on the bar chart where no trading has taken place. A runaway gap is a price gap that usually occurs around the mid-point of an important market trend. A breakaway gap is a price gap that forms on the completion of an important price pattern. Gann was a stock and a commodity trader working in the '50s who reputedly made over million in the markets. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up trend. particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down trend. An exhaustion gap is a price gap that occurs at the end of an important trend and signals that the trend is ending. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy. There is no easy explanation for Gann's methods. Trends A trend refers to the direction of prices. An up gap is usually a sign of market strength. He made his fortune using methods that he developed for trading instruments based on relationships between price movement and time. A down gap is formed when the highest price of the day is lower than the lowest price of the prior day. known as time/price equivalents. He also used lines in charts to predict support and resistance areas. falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the steepness of the current trend. An ideal Elliott wave patterns shows a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave decline. but in essence he used angles in charts to determine support and resistance areas and predict the times of future trend changes. while a down gap is a sign of market weakness. 49 . Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends and support and resistance levels. For that reason.

50 . Fundamental analysis is a macro or strategic assessment of where a currency should be trading based on any criteria but the movement of the currency's price itself. but concentrates on the activity of that instrument's market. environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the financial instrument. Unlike the fundamental analyst. DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) is a popular technical indicator used to determine whether or not a currency pair is trending. Factors involved in price analysis: Supply and demand. the technical analyst is not much concerned with any of the "bigger picture" factors affecting the market. These criteria often include the economic condition of the country that the currency represents. Fundamental analysis focuses on what ought to happen in a market. Fundamental analysis Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a financial instrument based on economic. In practice. weather and government policy. Many profitable trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major economic announcements.The most common technical tools: Coppock Curve is an investment tool used in technical analysis for predicting bear market lows. monetary policy. and other "fundamental" elements. political. seasonal cycles. many market players use technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis to determine their trading strategy.

Inflation moved to 13% and analysts talked about 15% but inflation fell to 8% in December. Experts are now talking about 4% levels in 2009. Experts are now talking about 7. Companies are now shutting down plants and are removing employees due to lack of demand and piling up of inventories.000 targets in 2009. Rupee strengthened to 39 against dollar and analysts like ICICI Kamat predicted 35 levels but rupee fell to 50 levels. Experts are now talking about 7% GDP growth in 2008-09 and 5% GDP growth in 2009-10. Crude Oil prices touched $147 per barrel and Goldman Sachs talked about $200 per barrel but crude oil in now trading around $45 levels.000 levels but Sensex fell to 7.What happened in 2008? Sensex was crossed 21. They are actually now talking about deflation. But todays it has been touch the point 14000 due to government stability. Commodities traded around all time high levels in June. They are now either disappeared or merged with banks. 51 . 2. Experts are now talking about $30 per barrel in 20094. 2008. 5.800 in October.000 levels in January and analysts predicted 25. Investment banking is the most sought after industry in early 2008. Indian GDP grew at 9% in 2007-08 and analysts predicted about 10% growth in 2009. 7. 2008 but they collapsed to 2003 levels in December. 6. Experts are now talking about 55 against dollar in 2009. 3.

4. As I said in my previous posts. On 18 May we have been seen more variation in recession time market has been touched the level of 14000 with growth of 2100 points 5. more volatile and more unpredictable due to more global integration of economy and money flows. stock markets always move much ahead of real economy. DLF and Unitech will cut prices by 30% in 2009. 80% of price variations occur in 20% of days – time of maximum profits and losses. 3. 6. How long Government will deceive people on this unmanageable issue? Biggest problem with this crisis is no one in the world 52 . They are now announcing bonuses and free offers to attract buyers. One should take into consideration this psychological aspect along with business fundamentals in arriving at price target. Never follow herds. Timing: It is very difficult to time the stock market investments. 2. We will hear some bankruptcies in 2009 in this sector. Real Estate prices reached stratospheric levels in early 2008 but investors bought them as if there will be no land available for purchase in 2009. even good companies with strong growth prospects also fall along with bad overvalued stocks. RBI Governor: “The global economic crisis is turning out to be deeper and longer than we had earlier expected.” This is the frank statement from Subbarao. stocks fell by October. Significant statements: 1. They are steep and severe. Believe in your research and gut feeling. Significant falls or rises do not occur in slow motion. Unlike in past. the impact on India is also turning out to be stronger than we had earlier expected. Just see what happened to investors in Reliance Power IPO. Many real estate stocks were corrected by 70-90% in this year alone. Stock market investors will never react normally – they will either overreact or under react to the economic or political events. If economic conditions will improve by early 2010. 7. Biggest investment lesson: When investors are in panic mood. stocks will rise by late 2009. stock markets now become more dynamic. Investment lessons from 2008: 1. If real economy will suffer in early 2009. 2008.8.

This is the first drop for crude oil demand since 1983.” 3.” 5. 53 . Indian GDP growth will be around 6.” 4.” 6.2% in 2009-10. According to RBI Governor. It estimates for Indian GDP: 6. 5% in 2009-10 and will be around 7% in 2010-11. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: “India will see the mother of all bull runs in the next 4 or 5 years. According to World Bank. 2. Commerce Minister: “Government will announce second stimulus package in the next week. India will grow by 5. Jack Welch (former GE Chairman): “The terror strike in Mumbai could well tilt the focus of foreign investors towards neighboring China. How India’s leaders respond to the Mumbai attacks will tell the business world what it wants and needs to know.Reuters poll: India's economy is expected to grow at its slowest pace in six years in the fiscal year to March 2009. International Energy Agency (IEA): for the first time in 25 years. including pension and insurance funds.knows about magnitude and duration of financial crisis.8% in 2008-09 and 6. This is the perception of foreigners about India. Many investors will be thinking about tilting the balance to China. Significant statistics: 1. 2009-10 may be a more difficult year. Textiles. Agriculture and Construction are the priority sectors for Government in the next package.8% in 2009. Not just whether to pull back from India but how risky pushing forward will be. boosted by double-digit economic growth and increased investment by domestic investors.2% in 2008-09. Indian economy never grew less than 7. demand for crude falls.5% in the last 5 years. World Bank: “The financial crisis is now likely to result in the most serious recession since the 1930s.

the largest yearover-year monthly decline since April 1999. 6. Global Telecom Companies are planning to buy 20-25% stake in Reliance Communications.73. Shocking! China will grow at 9% in 2010 if Government takes proper simulative decisions. R-Com stock lost 70% of value in 2008.2. Goldman Sachs: China GDP growth for 2009 is around 6%. 8. Positive Stock market news: 1. 2.9% in 2009 and inflows to developing countries will fall by 50%. IT and Hospitality sectors are the worst affected while Telecom is the most optimistic one.2% and 6. World Bank: Global trade will fall for the first time since 1982. India needs particular attention. Manpower survey: India is the second most optimistic employment market in the world but there will freezing in hiring in the next 3 months. Asian Development Bank (ADB): Growth rates of China and India will be at 8. McKinsey report: United States credit losses may top $3 trillion.5% respectively in 2009. DLF and Unitech may lower property prices by 30% in mid-2009 to stimulate buyers. China: Exports fell by 2. Government stability is big positive reason for sensex. 54 . New claims for unemployment benefits reached their highest level (5. 7. World economy will grow by 0. 3. India will be in election mood when we need these measures. More than 20 lakh Americans will lose jobs in 2009 and unemployment rate will touch 9% level in 2009. Promoter will not reduce his holding. given its weaker fiscal position.2% in November. the first decline since June 2001 . These losses will increase if another major asset class will collapse 4.000) in 26 years in USA. Anil Ambani family holds 67% stake in the company. This deal is beneficial for investors as only 12% of shares are available for trading after this purchase in the secondary market. 3. 5. These job losses will have cascading effect on real economy.

September. ADB estimates about Asian economy in 2009: A. 2.9% in 2009.2% in 2009. 55 . it is interesting to see how promoters will clear their dues. As stock markets are unlikely to recover in the next 12-15 months. We may hear some shocking news on this front in the next 2 years.500 crore. December. December. 3. World Bank estimates: A.5% in 2008. November.FCCB shocks: Foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs?) of many companies will be due for repayment in the next 3 years. NPA shocks: Many people are underestimating the impact of Non Performing Assets (NPAs).2% in 2009.. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 5. September.930 crore. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 7. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 6. 2008: World economy will grow by 2. ADB estimates about Asian economy in 2008: A. NPAs will affect in 2 ways. December. 2008: Asian economy will grow by 7. NPA statistics: NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2007: Rs 5. B. Interesting statistics about Asian and World economies: 1.8% in 2009. NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2008: Rs 9. B. Only positive aspect is many PSU banks reported fall in NPAs in 2008 over 2007 except SBI and IOB.9% in 2008. 2008: World economy will grow by 0. NPAs will not only propel the negative sentiment but increase the banks reluctance to give loans which will once again destroy the positive aspects of the bailout packages. B.

56 . All those foreign investors who are not registered with the SEBI (Stock Exchange Board of India). Let me explain it a bit : As I wrote in my last article that a major portion of the money being invested into the share market is coming from FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors). It is not invested with a long term mindset. The cause of concern for the Government was that in this major share of FIIs. Yet. this concept of allowing anonymous investors in the market broaden the reach of the market. which ultimately allows them trade in the market. Effect of fluctuation on Indian stock market Nothing actually.5 This is a much severe crisis than 2001 slowdown. So they took a sort of permission from registered FIIs by buying Participatory Notes (PN) from them in exchange of dollars. the market crashed because the Government tried to instill some sort of regulation in it. Making the availability of Participatory Notes some difficult for foreign investors was one step Government thought would help control the inflow of dollars. the regulatory body for stocks in India. The hot money is that kind of money which is invested only for a short time to make some quick buck. Since the continuous inflow of dollar into Indian economy is making the Indian currency (Rupee) stronger and thus making the export costlier. Though. So a few days ago the SEBI contemplated on a draft policy to make the issuing of PN difficult for FIIs. P/E of Sensex in 2008 economic slowdown: 9. Current P/E of Sensex: 10. The economy is as sound as it was in the boom time. more than half was in the form of hot money being invested into the market by anonymous investors who pump money into the market by utilizing the Participatory Note (PN) facility. the Government was looking for someway to curb this inflow of dollars.4. it also ensure free entry of dollars into Indian economy as well as increase the percentage of hot money in the market. can not directly deal in buying/selling of sticks. The companies are as profitable as they were a few days ago.

they will immediately shift there. Ultimately the Government had to rush in to alleviate the growing concern of Investors by stating that it would not control the issuing of PN to investors. As of now the market is still fluctuating and is yet to be stabilized. it will continue it’s upward swing despite such momentary crash. they started exiting form the market by selling their stock. soon the richest person in the world will be an Indian. there is a word of caution here. That’s why most expert 57 . This news will from the Business standard give you some detail of this exercise done by the Government. there is only a remote possibility of that as of now. As this boom is being driven by FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors).the market fell more than a 1000 point in a few hours and had to shut down for some time. Result. As people found that it would be difficult to trade in the market in future owing to non-availability of PN. are going to become really rich. we must not forget that these people are here only till they find a new market more profitable than India. the chairman of Reliance group was earning Rs 40 Lakhs ($ 100000) per minute. I think that in all probability. On the last count (as per a leading newspaper report) Mukesh Ambani. here are some of my observations on what can happen if the stock market boom continues for lone in India: First some positive one First of all if this boom continues for long. With the above note. you never know what can happen in future. Once they find a place which offer better return on their investment than India. However. The main reason of my belief is that the Indian economy as a whole is performing very well Same is the case with most Indian companies listed in the market. Yes you read it write. The word crorepati (multimillionaire) can soon become a common thing in India all thanks to share market. However. who are in the market for quite sometime. it is also because of the appreciation in the price of the shares of Reliance industries.This was the step which gave a jolt to the buying spree of FIIs. Though. Secondly most investors. $100000 per minute ! Though it has much to do with his huge and expanding empire of Reliance industries.

However. this can only be done if Government put some break on the inflow of dollars by FIIs which will actually mean putting a break on stock market boom. There is a pressure on Government to mange the appreciation of rupee to favour exporters. Recession A recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for two or more consecutive quarters of a year. a increase in interest rate in US may reverse this flow of FIIs. Some experts have opined that market is trading at 22 to 23 times of actual earning and no one can justify these valuations. I must say that this boom is not going to last forever as it is dependent on some very volatile factors that may change in the times to come. Some of our major export oriented industries such as Softwares and textiles are feeling the heat every day. 58 . The last but not the least is the overvaluation of many stocks in the market. can put a break on this boom. In nutshell if I am to summarize this boom of stock market. All these things.) The investment being made by FIIs in Indian share market has resulted in to a huge inflow of dollars into the economy. the continued depreciation of dollar is also a cause of deep concern which needs to be addressed. (it actually happened some days ago as I described above) Government certainly don’t want to spoil the party that is going on in the stock market. Ironically. there is another very interesting situation being faced by Reserve Bank of India(RBI) (the leading central bank which decides various economic policies here just like the Federal Reserve Bank of US.are advising people to stick to their long-term investment plan and don’t make any move in haste. Or we may see emergence of a new market with great potential on some other place on earth. As I explained in my earlier article. if happen. Owing to stock market boom. The profits margin of these industries have reduced as it mostly depend on current value of dollar. A recession is also preceded by several quarters of slowing down. The RBI is facing difficultly in managing this continuous inflow of dollars as their huge supply and easy availability has resulted into dollar’s depreciation vis-à -vis Rupee. The Rupee is becoming stronger to dollar thus making imports cheaper and export costlier.

which in turn leads to a decrease in production. it was inevitable that stock markets around the world would start catching the chill. and the financial sector in particular has been heading from one cold shower to the next. An economy typically expands for 6-10 years and tends to go into a recession for about six months to 2 years. Stock markets & recession The economy and the stock market are closely related. has also punctured a hole in the decoupling argument (which said Asia would not be hit by an America-based problem) that had become fashionable in recent weeks. This leads to a decreased demand for goods and services. However. The way in which Asian stock prices responded last week to the fall of the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices by 4 per cent. Investors spend less as they fear stocks values will fall and thus stock markets fall on negative sentiment. The Sensex crashed by nearly 13 per cent in just two trading sessions in January. but investors are a worried lot. When the global economy has been cooling down. A recession normally takes place when consumers lose confidence in the growth of the economy and spend less. The markets bounced back after the US Fed cut interest rates. along with European stocks.Causes of recession An economy which grows over a period of time tends to slow down the growth as a part of the normal economic cycle. lay-offs and a sharp rise in unemployment. And investors seem to have little faith in the Bush rescue plan's ability to ward off a recession in the US. Investors around the world have taken note of the fact that the broad-based S&P 500 index is at a 16-month low. The Indian stock markets also crashed due to a slowdown in the US economy. In the US. a recession is yet to be declared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The stock markets reflect the buoyancy of the economy. but the market has already 59 . stock prices are now at a low ebb in India with little cheer coming to investors. hitting a 10-month low. The Fed will almost certainly respond with sharp cuts in interest rates towards the end of the month.

What began with profit-booking and unwinding of long positions cascaded on Friday into a 3.000-odd -. the Sensex trades at a trailing P/E multiple of 24. There is no doubt that valuations had become expensive.5. when compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Yet. The floor therefore would probably be a Sensex level of 17. Even after the 10 per cent correction from the market's peak.15. and FIIs have been net sellers to the tune of Rs 2. it is a large enough sum for the market to go into correction mode. Indian markets worst hit It is interesting that Indian markets were hit the most. or whether a further fall is required before value-based buying starts. 60 . Provided the general economic and corporate news does not get worse than has already been anticipated. no more. the Sensex trades at an FY09 estimated P/E of 18.200 crore (Rs 22 billion) in January. The question is whether the correction that has occurred so far is enough for fresh buying to emerge.discounted for that.000 crore (Rs 1.which would mean wiping out the gains of the past three months.5 per cent decline in the Sensex. Impact of a US recession on India A slowdown in the US economy is bad news for India. which is not cheap in anyone's book. Also relevant was the Reliance Power IPO. When coupled with the data showing that the export target for the year will be missed by a wide margin. Even if a third or a fourth of that was being garnered by sale of stocks. Foreign institutional investors had moved to the sidelines in the secondary markets even earlier. Investors will also have noticed that the third-quarter corporate numbers show significant deceleration in both sales and profit growth. it was inevitable that stock prices would have to come off their dizzy highs. and that the industrial sector has suffered a sharp slowdown. among all Asian markets. buying may soon begin A global liquidity surplus had certainly contributed to momentum buying.150 billion)). which pulled in a record amount of application money (Rs 1. On a forward basis. This may have been because the correction in the overheated Chinese stock market began some weeks ago. fresh buyingcannot be very far away.

reminding investors that there is no one-way bet on the stock market. booking profits and making the most of the unprecedented bull run that has dominated the Indian stock market for a long time now. One of the primary triggers is the huge fear of the United States' economy going into a recession with foreign institutional investors trying to reallocate their funds from risky emerging markets to stable developed markets. Between January 2001 and December 2002. One. A recession could bring down oil prices to $70. Oil may get cheaper brining down inflation. The presence of hedge funds across asset classes.7 per cent. The whole of Asia would be hit by a recession as it depends on the US economy. The current volatility is also linked to global bourses. India's exports to the US have also grown substantially over the years. Hedge funds and FIIs could have been the biggest sellers in the Indian markets. the Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 22. the Sensex was down 45 per cent. But experts note that the long-term prospects for India are stable. Indian companies with big tickets deals in the US would see their profit margins shrinking. If the fall from the record highs reached is taken. The worries for exporters will grow as rupee strengthens further against the dollar.Indian companies have major outsourcing deals from the US. In contrast. The India economy is likely to lose between 1 to 2 percentage points in GDP growth in the next fiscal year. 61 . Asia is yet to totally decouple itself (or be independent) from the rest of the world. say experts. there is a change in the global investment climate. while the Sensex fell by 14. has increased event-related volatility. There is a big correlation among global markets. Analysts are now expecting a cut in US interest rates. factors. the DJIA was down 30 per cent in December 2002 from the highs it hit in January 2000. along with increased global movement of capital. A weak dollar could bring more foreign money to Indian markets. Black Monday saw bloodbath on Dalal Street as the Indian stock markets crashed by over 1430 points in afternoon trade (the market has since then recovered somewhat).6 per cent.

62 . he added. he added. on NDTV Profit. This could be seen as a buying opportunity and we will revisit market valuations after the correction.Volatility in commodities markets has also significantly affected equity markets. On the global front. There is no need to get very pessimistic that this is the end of equity investing in India. said Vora. The Sensex can fall another 10-15%. India is trading at 65% premium to emerging markets and India is playing catchup with other declining global markets. a technical correction in the derivatives segment has perpetrated a larger fall. Analysts expect the markets to continue to be choppy for a while till global liquidity and commodity prices settle in. At current levels it would be a buy call and we would not advise investors to wait to catch the bottom. on NDTV Profit. he said. he added. other emerging markets were down nearly 20% so India is playing catch-up. said Mihir Vora of HSBC Mutual Fund. said Adrian Mowat of JP Morgan. On the local front there has been a huge build-up in derivatives positions and volatility led to margin calls. Also many IPOs have sucked out liquidity from the primary market into the secondary market. he said. A combination of global and local factors is affecting this market. With the markets falling.

prices 63 s: al si O S T n a y . It becomes high loss when market goes down.Strength:  High return  Large investment  Acquire capital for expanding the business  Secure the future losses Weakness:  High risk  Based on the fluctuation. Threat :  Recession  New government  Bubble burst  Fluctuates dollar  Market is providing new opportunities and new options to invest.  Can’t predict future W Opportunity:  Lot of people wants to invest but don’t invest due to insufficient knowledge.

”  Comparatively stock market is less risky than the other market and generates more money for the economy  One who have good knowledge in stock market.  It is based on “high risk and high return.Conclusion: Through this research we can conclude that:  Stock market fluctuates by the external environment. may survive in the market and generates profits or good return whether the market is down  Investors should not invest on the basis of rumors they must observe the market condition or trends Indian economy and than invest If they wanna generate good return.  Stock market is very sensitive market.  Stock market is all about future prediction. 64 .

W.org • www. Hein.Rik W.28. R.Bibliography Text books • The Stock Market-The Stock Market .worldbank. Madhumati page no.24.ltslnewsStock_ExchangesStock.bseindia. 23.200.org • http://en.org • www.Hafer.com • The economics times - 65 .26. 6.209 Journals and magazines JARN.com • http://econ. Scott E. Published Feb 2009 • Business today • Business standard Websites: www.tdd.stockmarkets.Hafer work package no.com • www.icai.7 & 8 Investment Analysis and portfolio management-M Raghunathan.wikipedia.tradingstock.htm www.

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