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mKateryna Kyzyma

mDaria Troian
mAdriano Aucello
mAbedelazez Safi
 THE PRESENTATION WILL LOOK AT
TWO WAYS TO CONSIDER THE DATA

INITIAL DATA PLOTS

DIFFERENCIATING

SARIMA PREDICTION

HOLT-WINTER PREDICTION

CONCLUSION ON BETTER PREDICTION


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 fit upr lwr

Sep 1995 731728.2 773668.6 689787.8

Oct 1995 681084.8 734762.3 627407.4

Nov 1995 675398.6 742190.4 608606.9

Dec 1995 722942.8 807768.6 638117.1

Jan 1996 763692.3 867848.4 659536.3

Feb 1996 793376.2 917302.0 669450.3


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fit lwr uppr
Jun 1995 705292.2 785938.4 624646.03
Jul 1995 689001.1 805791.5 572210.82
Aug 1995 672864.2 819280.9 526447.55
Sep 1995 716439.8 889433.2 543446.38
Oct 1995 638669.5 836497.6 440841.44
Nov 1995 643078.4 864652.0 421504.81
Dec 1995 731008.1 975615.6 486400.71
Jan 1996 753654.5 1020823.2 486485.91
Feb 1996 777571.8 1066990.2 488153.32
÷ 

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 Coefficients:  Coefficients:

ma1 sma1 ma1 sma1

0.4600 0.1709 -0.0119 -0.8163

s.e. 0.1539 0.2504 s.e. 0.0634 0.0634

Despite the positive result of residual analysis of last values the


standards error indicates the suitability of whole time series
consideration to produce the better forecast
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Historical reasons:

 Economical recessions-1980s,1990s

 10 years cycle of unemployment(peak in 2000


proves the cyclicality )

 Baby boom late 1970s-women are on child care


holidays.