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year trend(t) Milk production estimate(y)estimated y ratio(actual/estimated)

1998 1 72128 71436 1.01


1999 2 75424 74609.73 1.01
2000 3 78286 77783.45 1.01
2001 4 80607 80957.18 1
2002 5 84406 84130.91 1
2003 6 86159 87304.64 0.99
2004 7 88082 90478.36 0.97
2005 8 92484 93652.09 0.99
2006 9 97066 96825.82 1
2007 10 100869 99999.55 1.01
2008 11 104840 103173.27 1.02
2009 12 106347 106347 1
2010 13 109520.73
2011 14 112694.45 avg of ratio 1
2012 15 115868.18
2013 16 119041.91
2014 17 122215.64
2015 18 125389.36
2016 19 128563.09

120000

100000
Milk production
80000 estimate(y)
estimated y
60000

40000

20000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
avg*old forecast

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99
R Square 0.99
106358.12 Adjusted R Square 0.99
109532.18 Standard Error 1229.45
112706.24 Observations 11
115880.3
119054.36 ANOVA
122228.42 df SS MS
125402.48 Regression 1 ### ###
128576.54 Residual 9 13603854.36 ###
Total 10 ###

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat


Intercept 68262.27 795.05 85.86
X Variable 1 3173.73 117.22 27.07

Milk production
estimate(y)
estimated y
F Significance F
733.01 0

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


0 66463.75 70060.79 66463.75 70060.79
0 2908.55 3438.9 2908.55 3438.9
year trend(t) Milk production estimate(y)log y antilog y
1998 1 72128 #NAME? #NAME?
1999 2 75424 #NAME? #NAME?
2000 3 78286 4.89 78286
2001 4 80607 4.91 80607
2002 5 84406 4.93 84406
2003 6 86159 4.94 86159
2004 7 88082 4.94 88082
2005 8 92484 4.97 92484
2006 9 97066 4.99 97066
2007 10 100869 5 100869
2008 11 104840 5.02 104840
2009 12 106347 5.03 ###
2010 13 109520.73 5.05 111832.8
2011 14 112694.45 5.06 ###
2012 15 115868.18 5.08 ###
2013 16 119041.91 5.1 ###
2014 17 122215.64 5.11 ###
2015 18 125389.36 5.13 ###
2016 19 128563.09 5.14 ###
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 0.99
Adjusted R Square 0.99
Standard Error 0
Observations 11

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 0.03 0.03 1581.88
Residual 9 0 0
Total 10 0.03

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value


Intercept 4.84 0 1800.61 0
X Variable 1 0.02 0 39.77 0
Significance F
0

Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


4.84 4.85 4.84 4.85
0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02
Milk production estimate(y)moving avg 3 diff square Milk production estimate(y)
72128 72128
75424 75424
78286 78286
80607 75279.33 5327.67 ### 80607
84406 78105.67 6300.33 ### 84406
86159 81099.67 5059.33 ### 86159
88082 83724 4358 18992164 88082
92484 86215.67 6268.33 ### 92484
97066 88908.33 8157.67 ### 97066
100869 92544 8325 69305625 100869
104840 96806.33 8033.67 ### 104840

sum ###
sum/8 ###
RMSE 6636.57
moving 5 diff square Milk production estimate(y)moving 7 diff square
72128
75424
78286
80607
84406
78170.2 7988.8 ### 86159
80976.4 7105.6 ### 88082
83508 8976 80568576 92484 80727.43 11756.57 ###
86347.6 10718.4 ### 97066 83635.43 13430.57 ###
89639.4 11229.6 ### 100869 86727.14 14141.86 ###
92932 11908 141800464 104840 89953.29 14886.71 ###

sum ### sum ###


sum/6 ### sum/4 ###
RMSE 9812.13 RMSE 13603.34