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Tim Ellis tellis@ rstpartner.net Tom Heritage theritage@ rstpartner.net www. rstpartner.net +44 (0)870 874 8700
The military have been among the rst adopters of AR in the F35 ghter jet and battle eld display equipment.
E-commerce Gaming Computing
AR has the potential to revolutionise the computing industry by using headset displays instead of physical monitors. AR application used to superimpose local restaurant reviews, landmark facts, local business info, opening times etc on camera image Gaming is a key industry for AR and is already showing promise with Sony releasing the rst ever mass market AR game on the PS3. Online vendors are using AR to enhance shopping experience, such as Zugara’s ‘Virtual changing room’ experience.
Mobile Information Education
AR is being used for Interactive virtual story books and professional training for maintenance personnel
Welcome to the FirstPartner Augmented Reality Market Map. The Map shows the industry ecosystem, identi es key players and identi es potential future revenue models.
In 2008, Gartner identi ed AR as one of the top ten disruptive technologies for 2008 to 2012. AR has suceeded in moving from research with demonstrations of possible vertical market applications into a developer community supported by commercial toolkits. AR is experiencing interest at present, particularly using mobile smartphone handset platforms, but is yet to demonstrate signi cant user take up. A current concern is that these smartphone platforms will not deliver an experience which will drive adoption beyond an initial novelty take up.
AR is being used for: Mobile, internet and print advertising. Fixed locations: Kiosks, Digital Signage, Window Displays
Ad Funded App Purchase Content Driven Subscription Based Featured Content
The app is free to the end user but generates revenue through sponsored advertisments The end user pays a xed amount to download the app, from then on all aspects of the service are free of charge Third parties pay to be featured within the app as locations and relevent information which are presented to the end user The end user pays a xed amount per month to access the content within the app AR Browsers charge developers / content providers for preferential placement within the app.
AR Market Stimulation Initial AR products and campaigns have gained traction through novelty. Momentum will need to be created through sustained end user attractiveness.
AR Market Stimulation
Routes To Market
O ers the best end user experienc experience marke of AR, but will require a mass market mulii t stimulii to motivate investment in develo developing high volume / low cost eloping sensor sensor, display and platfor sor, platform produc products.
• Android Market
• Apple App Store
• Ovi Store
• Windows Store
Direct supply by vendors
Wearable Displays Head Mounted Display (HMD)
This type of augmented vision overlays virtual information onto a wearable display that is situated in front of one or both eyes. • Cybermind • Vuzix
Computer Operating System Operating System Handset
• PC • Mac • Windows • OS X • Google Android oogle • Windows Mobile
Adoption of AR has taken place in 2 vertical markets: • Advertising & Marketing • Mobile Applications Advertising & Marketing Best Buy inserted a circular promoting a Toshiba laptop with marker based AR in a 43 million circulation Sunday newspaper in November 2009. • About 6,500 tried out the advertisment (double Best Buy’s expectation). • 78% of the these had a webcam to successfully use the AR content. • 12% clicked through to other Best Buy websites. Other AR campaigns include: Tag Heur - Allows users to print o a paper watch to wear in front of their webcam & display the entire watch range on the users wrist before purchase. Zugara - Online fashion retailer added AR to their website that allows users to view themselves wearing items of clothing on screen. Mobile Applications The integration of cameras along with compass and GPS positioning in smartphones has provided a mobile AR applications platform. Currently iPhone and Android handsets are attracting the majority of development activity. Of note is the introduction of AR Browsers as a single application framework. These are promoted through App stores, provide APIs for the developer community to deliver AR content into, and adopt an advertising based revenue model. A battle to establish a “standard” AR browser is currently underway. Significant 2009 AR mobile investments were: • Layar (Netherlands) - $1m VC funding and is preloaded on the Samsung Galaxy Portal i5700 handset • Tonchidot (Japan) - $4m for the Sekai Camera social AR service * Requires webcam • Symbian • Apple • RIM Blackberry • Nokia N900 okia • HTC Hero • Apple iPhone • HTC HD2 C • Blackberry Curve • Palm Pre lackberry • Eurotech Group • NEC • ETH Zurich Zypad Zyp Tele Scouter QBIC • WearIT@Work • IBM • Glacier Computer
Manufacturer • Sony • Microsoft • Nintendo
Console • Playstation 3 • Xbox • Wii
Virtual Retinal Display (VRD)
VRD works by projecting virtual images directly onto the eye’s retina, producing what appears to be a conventional display oating in mid air.
AR Browser community is driving end user adoption with a multi level strategy: g r adoption w adop commun munity s • Free download availability in major community app stores nstall smartphone vendors as part of the product featureset ne vendor art prod • Factory install by sm ively ch over • Actively driving developer creation of rich AR content overlays. developer
Near to Eye Displays
Multi sensor implementations o er richness of experience and can be used to compensate for an individual sense impairment. Sensor development focus is on driving miniaturisation and increasing accuracy whilst achieving cost reductions.
• Kopin • Emagin • Micron Displaytech • iMD
Agencies and Publishers are launching trial AR titles and campaigns to measure end user interest. This is creating a pull through e ect from the developer community.
Agencies AR Publishers
• Enjoy Gaming • Chillingo • Int13 • Yelp • Majesco • Layar • Wikitude • Chillingo • Acrossair • Presselite • Appliya ppliya • Majesco • Makayama • 42 Entertainment
The use of GPS and compass in smartphone devices is limiting application development due to a lack of accuracy resulting in image wobble. The mobile platform is however seen as a viable AR platform, and its suitability will be enhanced by multi sensor development. Development of the mobile AR platform is expected to replace previous research into Wearable Computing for mass market AR platforms. Advances in Near To Eye displays are bringing the reality of lightweight sunglass form factor head mounted displays closer to reality. These will need to be signi cantly cost engineered to meet mass market cost / performance / experience expectations. These will create an accessory market for both the mobile and games AR platforms and will drive the sector through widespread adoption of AR in games and 3D content enhancement. GM have demonstrated an IR driven phosphor coatings to use the vehicle windscreen as an AR display. This is not expected to be included in production vehicles before 2018.
• AKQA • Skive • Soap
• Crispin Porter + Bogusky • Goodby Silverstein • phd
Augmented Reality Market Revenue
‘AR Browser’ is a speci c type of smartphone application which provides a single application framework. It combines realtime GPS, camera, and compass information to identify surroundings and overlay selectable real time information.
Bio-cells Magnetometers Gyroscopes Sound Pressure Motion
Multiple sensor data combined using sensor fusion to achieve enhanced experience
• Put a spell • Tower Defense • Eye of Judgement • Roguelike • EyePet • Flying • Google Goggles • Yell.com • RobotVision
$175m Mobile Navigation Search Gaming
Advertising / Promotion
• Wikitude Drive • AUGNAV • Enkin • Heads up navigator tor • AR Quake • ARhrrrr • Fairy Trails • Arcade Reality
• Wikitude • Layar • Robot Vision • Junaio • Toozla (audio only)
• Aichi Steel • AKM
• Analog Devices • Arti cial Muscle
• Avago • Bosch Sensortec
• Honeywell • Kionix
• Memsic • STMicroelectronics
Millions of Dollars
• Ray-Ban Virtual Mirror • USPS Virtual Box • Nissan Cube brochure • Lego Box
• Layar • Junaio
ABI Research 2009
Types of Augmented Reality
Marker Based AR
This is Augmented Reality in it’s simplest form. This method involves small printable marker tags that interact with software downloaded to a computer equipped with a webcam or a smart phone with camera to create 3D images overlaid on the real-world image displayed on screen.
This type of Augmented Reality is used predominanly for mobile AR applications. It works by using a mobile device that is both GPS and compass equipped to pinpoint the users location and which direction they are facing, to overlay visual information in real time over the visual display.
Advanced marker-less AR implementations displaying an image in front of or onto a persons eye. This method requires multi sensor capabilities, powerful real time computing and advanced wearable diplays.
According to ABI Research, handheld platforms will transform the Augmented Reality ecosystem, with revenue associated with Augmented Reality growing from about $6 million in 2008 to more than $350 million in 2014. The rate of take o of AR is currently subject to discussion, with Juniper Research contrasting by forecasting only $2m in 2010, but takeo occuring in 2012-13 to reach $732 million in 2014. (Juniper Research 11/2009) The major factors in revenue takeo are: • Advertisers learn to insert tags into navigation displays, mobile advertising resulting in a signi cant contribution to revenues in the 2013-2014 timeframe. • User awareness driven by signi cant brands continuing to try AR campaign delivery, and entry of signi cant participants such as Google with recently released Google Goggles. AR has to prove that it can deliver users an experience that is su ciently valued by users over existing information display methods, to drive takeup beyond initial novelty adopters.
Developers are driving AR adoption by speculatively developing white label applications both as capability demonstrators and for branding by Publishers and Agencies. fo
• Adobe FLART • ARToolkit
• GoblinXNA • D’Fusion
• DART • osgART
Application developers with specifc AR experience across a variety of different platforms
• Seac02 • Gameware • Metaio • Ogmento • Presselite • Ydreams • Toyspring • Urban Mapping • Yell.com • Foreca • Skyhook Wireless
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r e n t r a P t s r i F
Mobilizy Neogence Enterprises Ogmento SPRX Mobile Tonchidot Total Immersion
The map includes information compiled from various reputable sources and other methods like structured interviews and surveys, conference material and information available in the public domain. As data and information sources are outside our control, FirstPartner make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. All responsibility for any interpretation or actions based on this map lies solely with the reader. Copyright 2010
The Augmented Reality Consortium
Research and Development Institutions
Georgia Institute of Technology
Christian Doppler Laboratory
University of Washington
University of South Australia
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