Assignment (III)

on

“The factors responsible for Climate Change for pre-

industrial stage till date. The dangers of such levels of
Climate Change for future.”

Submitted to:- Submitted by:-

Dr. K. N. Bhatt Shashi Kant
GBPSSI MBA-RD
rd
3 Semester

G. B. Pant Social Science Institute

Jhusi, Allahabad
Introduction to Climate Change:

The earth’s climate is the result of a delicate balance involving the sun, atmosphere, oceans,
water systems, plants, living organisms, and topography. There is a complex interaction among
these, which results in the correct balance. The most important factors that influence climate are
rain, sunshine, humidity, wind, and temperature. Climate is the average weather of a given
region or area over a long period of time. In fact, it is often said that the climate is what we
expect, while the weather is what we get! We see how the weather changes from season to
season. It usually varies within limits and is generally seen as a stable pattern. Over the past
hundred years, rapid changes have been occurring in the climate, which is a great challenge
facing humankind. Undoubtedly, it is the single largest environmental threat facing the world
today, and we need to act fast to mitigate it.

Factors influencing climate change :

The temperature of earth as a whole is determined by the balance between incoming and
outgoing energy. Climate change arises largely from changes to the earth’s heat balance. Many
factors can influence this—both natural processes and ANTHROPOGENIC (human-made)
processes. It is the impacts from anthropogenic processes, through the enhanced greenhouse
effect, which are likely to be causing contemporary climate change, which in turn could bring
about considerable environmental, social and economic disruption if adequate mitigation and
adaptation measures are not implemented.

 Extraterrestrial factors, such as variations in the sun's activity and slow changes in the
earth's orbit and tilt of its axis.
 The main influence within earth is volcanism. Slow drift of continents and mountain
building also influence climate, but this occurs only over millions of years, so can be
considered constant over time scales of decades to centuries.
 Factors operating on the earth’s surface include the reflectivity or ALBEDO of the
surface; the amount of heat in the oceans and the atmosphere and the level of heat
exchange between them; and the influence of land vegetation on the composition and
heat balance of the atmosphere.
 Atmospheric factors include the composition of the atmosphere and its reflectivity, from
the surface of the earth to the STRATOSPHERE.

Many of these factors are inter-related, and atmospheric, ocean and land interactions can involve
complex feedback mechanisms that can either enhance or dampen changes to the climate system.
Natural Influences on the Climate System:
The natural influences on the climate system have caused variations in the earth's climate over
hundreds of thousands of years, as well as on shorter timescales of decades. Many of these
processes are unaffected by human activity, including the extraterrestrial factors and factors
associated with the earth's tectonic activity. Exchange of heat and gases between the earth's
atmosphere and its oceans and land vegetation are also natural influences on the climate system,
but these processes are now being affected by human activities to various degrees. For example,
the presence and composition of the earth's atmosphere produces a natural greenhouse effect.
The atmosphere contains gases such as water vapour and carbon dioxide that are relatively
transparent to the sun's shortwave radiation, but absorb some of the longwave radiation that is re-
radiated from the earth's surface. This causes the average temperature on earth to be about
33°C warmer than it would be if there were no atmospheric 'blanket'. As discussed below,
changes to atmospheric composition through human activity is the main factor thought to be
causing the climate to shift from its natural state.

One of the most important natural factors responsible for climate change is the variation or
changes in the earth’s orbital pattern around the sun, also known as the Milankovitch cycles,
after the astronomer who identified them. This leads to variations in the incoming solar radiation,
or insolation. The earth’s axis of rotation is tilted away from the perpendicular to the plane of its
orbit about the sun. At present, the tilt away from the perpendicular is about 23½°. This tilt is
responsible for our seasons, and a slight change in the axial tilt affects the seasons. Continents
drift very slowly, shifting their positions at a rate that cannot be seen or felt even over a lifetime.
This leads to changes in climate, as it brings about a change in the physical features of the
lithosphere, change in the position of the land masses, and changes in mountains and water
bodies. Oceans cover 70% of the earth, store more energy from the sun than the atmosphere, and
have a major influence on the earth’s climate. The currents in the oceans flow near the surface
and also deep below, thus transferring heat all over the earth. Some currents are warm and some
are cold and affect the coastal regions accordingly. A volcanic eruption is another natural factor
that contributes to climate change and leads to short-term changes. These eruptions cause large
volumes of SO2 (sulphur dioxide), water vapour, dust, and ash to escape into the atmosphere.
These partially block the incoming rays of the sun, leading to cooling.

Human influences on the climate system:

There is increasing evidence of human influences on the climate system. Human activities are
directly influencing the composition of the atmosphere, by increasing the concentration of the
naturally occurring greenhouse gases and by adding new ones. We are also changing the
reflectivity over parts of the earth's surface.
Increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is by far the most influential amongst
the factors forcing contemporary climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activity
derive mainly from combustion of fossil fuels, with additional significant contributions from
industrial processes, agriculture, and land use change. Changes in levels of black carbon
particulates, snow albedo, and atmospheric pollutants have small additional impacts on global
warming. Other factors which offset these effects are cloud albedo, aerosols, land albedo change,
and, periodically, dust from volcanic eruptions. The estimated relative contribution of these
factors to changes in radiative forcing since 1850 are illustrated in the figure below. A positive
change represents an enhancement of the greenhouse effect, while a negative change reduces the
greenhouse effect. The concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) have increased
rapidly over the past 20 years. These contribute the most to RADIATIVE FORCING, exceeding
the level of contribution from all other ANTHROPOGENIC agents throughout the latter half of
the 20th century.

The input from solar effects is around 20 per cent of the combined effect of all anthropogenic
agents, and about an order of magnitude less than the total greenhouse gas contribution. Volcanic
eruptions have a large but transitory negative effect. From 1950 to 2005, the combined natural
forcing has been either negative or slightly positive

Human contribution to climate change:

The main human activities that contribute to an enhancement of the natural

greenhouse effect are:

 Combustion of fossil fuels, which releases greenhouse gases.

 Clearing of forests for agriculture, which releases carbon dioxide through increased
biomass decay.
 Deforestation, soil tillage and land degradation, which release carbon from the land
system and reduce its capacity to absorb and store carbon.

The main human activities that change the reflectivity of the earth's surface and atmosphere are:

 Fossil fuel combustion; industrial processes; and biomass burning release aerosols and
other pollutants into the atmosphere, changing its capacity to reflect or absorb solar
radiation. These aerosols may also be deposited onto the land surface and cause changes
to the surface albedo.
 Deforestation, agricultural practices and urbanisation change the reflectivity of the earth's
surface.
 The main greenhouse gases emitted or generated by human activities are:

o CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2).

o METHANE (CH4).
o HALOCARBONS (including CFCs, HFCs, HCFCs, PERFLUOROCARBONS and
o HYDROFLUOROETHERS).
o NITROUS OXIDE (N2O).
o OZONE (O3).

The dangers of Climate Change for future:

It is natural to assume that a warming trend would result in warmer temperatures around the
world, but the matter is far from that simple. Indeed, most climate change scientists offer varying
future climate change models based on exactly how much warmer the Earth’s temperature
becomes by the year 2100 and beyond. Most predicting climate models are based on the current
level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and take into account varying degrees of decreasing
CO2 levels over the 21st century. Although almost all widely accepted models suggest that the
overall temperature will rise, the amount and resulting effects vary greatly between scenarios.

According to the average of many future climate change predictions made at the dawn of the 21st
century, the global temperature rise will be 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
Although a 3 degree change may sound minor, scientists insist that the resultant effects could be
catastrophic for both humans and the planet as a whole. Loss of polar ice, massive flooding,
increased desert climate, and severe storm increases are all commonly invoked outcomes of this
seemingly small change.

Assuming that the average increase is correct, over the 21st century there is likely to be a severe
increase in polar ice melt. This melting may lead to an increased sea level, inundating coastal
regions around the world and potentially resulting in the loss of current coastal cities and
inhabited islands. The sea is also expected to warm dramatically, causing devastation to marine
wildlife and greatly increasing the production of hurricanes, typhoons, and severe marine storms.

Another devastating effect of many future climate change models is the spread of deserts around
the world. Desertification is the result of a loss of nutrients in the topsoil of land, causing once-
fertile areas to become unusable for agriculture. Not only will severe desertification destroy
many temperate and tropical ecosystems, it may also seriously decrease human food supply as
traditionally agricultural land becomes a wasteland.

Future climate change predictions are justifiably frightening, and seem to predict a long and
difficult future ahead of the human race. Most scientists suggest that the best way to avoid or
lessen many of the painful consequences of global warming is to immediately reduce carbon
dioxide emissions dramatically. Switching to alternative, clean burning fuels, investing in
alternative energy technology, and taking part in global efforts to educate people about
sustainable practices may help prevent numerous disasters in the future. According to some
experts, the best response to future climate change is preparation and prevention. Although many
scientists agree that global warming effects are unavoidable, many experts believe that slowing
their progression and lessening the impact to the planet need to become major priorities of both
governments and world citizens alike.