Professional Documents
Culture Documents
on
Fashion
Forecasting Process
Presented By
k.n.chatterjee
CONTENTS
• Objective
• Trend Chasers
• Define Forecasting
• Diffusion of Innovation
• The consumer adoption process
• Fashion Specialties
• Defining Fashion
• Forecasters toolbox: Visualizing the diffusion process
• Forecasting in the Textile & Apparel Industries
Objective
• Understand the multifceted character of fashion.
• Analyze the trajectory of Fashion Change.
• Identify the concept of spirit of times, as a framework
for understanding and interpreting Fashion Change.
• Understand the breadth and depth of forecasting
system.
• Identify the role of forecasting in the textile and
apparel industry.
Trend Chasers- Who, Why,
What, Where, When & how
A
D
classic
O
P
T
E
R
s Fad
Time
Steps in developing a Fashion
Forecast
Step #1 Identify the basic act about past trends and forecasts.
Step #2 Determine the causes of change in the past.
Step #3 Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual
behavior.
Step #4 Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future.
Step #5 Apply forecasting tools and techniques, to predict reliably.
Step #6 Follow-up the forecast to determine the reasons for significant
deviations from expectations.
Step #7 Revise the forecast when necessary.
Diffusion of Innovation
Something new-an innovation-is proposed. It may appear in hit movie,
T.V. show, or music video and influence the buying decision of
million.
In fashion terms the innovation may be the invention of new fiber, a
new finish for denim, introduction of an unusual color range, a
modification in a silhouette or detail, a different way to wear an
accessory or mood expressed in a distinctive style. Once
introduction, it diffuses through the population as more &more
consumer have a chance either to accept or reject it.
Innovations life cycle
Early Adopters
Of Opinion
leader
No of
Adopters
Innovator
majority
laggards
Late
Adopters
Fashion
scan Fashion
analysis
Consumer
scan
Trend Combined
analysis forecast
Cultural
indicator
Present Future
1. Fashion scan:-
Traveling to the fashion capitals
Scanning print, broadcast, and online sources for clues.
Networking with people in creative field.
2. Consumer scan:-
Consumer research is an important part of fashion forecasting today.
Consumer segmentation attempts to identify of cluster of people who
Share characteristics, usually some combination of demographic,
lifestyle, attitude, and behavior.
3. Fashion analysis
Together, Fashion scan and consumer scan provide input for fashion
analysis.
4.Social & economic trends
The shift to a casual life style and a consumer resistant to
following trend are manifestations of deep cultural changes in
society
5.Trend Analysis
Drawing on fashion and consumer scan and on identification of
social and economic trends analysis detects short and long
term trends that affect business prospects
6.Competitve Analysis
Apparel competes for consumer attention and dollars with many
other alternatives, including electronics and entertainment. To
be a competitive in such a business environment , companies
must observe the plan and capabilities of competing firms
through regular tracking of key information.
7.Integrated Forecasting
A team approach to forecasting means continuous information
sharing between functional groups with the goal of increasing
the quality of the forecast.
Defining Fashion
• In simplest terms fashion is a style that is popular in the present
or a set of trends that have been accepted by a wide audience.
Fashion is a complex phenomenon from psychological,
sociological, cultural or commercial points of view .
Fashion as a social and psychological response
Fashion as popular culture
Fashion as change
Fashion as universal phenomenon
Fashion as a transfer of meaning
Fashion as an economic stimulus
Fashion and gender differences
Forecasters toolbox:
Visualizing the diffusion
process
The visualization of diffusion in the Rogers model (1962) shows a
two-step flow
First step involves transmission of new ideas through the
impersonal influence of mass media & marketer based
information to innovator and leader.
Second step depends on the personal influence within social
group as new ideas move from fashion leader to fashion
followers.
Impersonal influence
Magazines, T.V, advertising, Fashion promotion
Step 2
Personal
influence
Fashion followers
Innovative consumers
Opinion leaders
Forecasting in the Textile &
Apparel Industries
Even the fastest fast-fashion company need a picture of what
consumers will see new and exciting. Fashion forecasting
provides the tool to create that picture. Forecasters today
integrate traditional and electronic approaches to the process of
forecasting.
Retailers
Design concept
Silhouette & Details