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Seminar

on
Fashion
Forecasting Process
Presented By
k.n.chatterjee
CONTENTS

• Objective
• Trend Chasers
• Define Forecasting
• Diffusion of Innovation
• The consumer adoption process
• Fashion Specialties
• Defining Fashion
• Forecasters toolbox: Visualizing the diffusion process
• Forecasting in the Textile & Apparel Industries
Objective
• Understand the multifceted character of fashion.
• Analyze the trajectory of Fashion Change.
• Identify the concept of spirit of times, as a framework
for understanding and interpreting Fashion Change.
• Understand the breadth and depth of forecasting
system.
• Identify the role of forecasting in the textile and
apparel industry.
Trend Chasers- Who, Why,
What, Where, When & how

Like the storm-chaser the forecasters locate the spawning


grounds of trends and use their skill and knowledge to
identify emerging concepts. They then pass-on their
findings to other forecasters, marketers and the press
setting up the chain reaction that people usually call as
FASHION.
Forecasters work in many kind of firms for designer,
advertising agency, trade organizations, apparel brands
& retail chains.
Fashion Forecasting ???
It can be compared to chasing the future with the
butterfly net but spotting trend is not that difficult for
people who immerse themselves in popular cultures
and trade news.
Forecasters pluck immerging trends out of public
information by becoming sensitive to directional
signals that others miss usually.
Forecasters always look for the new, the fresh and
innovative and then analyzing the Whys behind it.
Fashion Curves

A
D
classic
O
P
T
E
R
s Fad

Time
Steps in developing a Fashion
Forecast
Step #1 Identify the basic act about past trends and forecasts.
Step #2 Determine the causes of change in the past.
Step #3 Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual
behavior.
Step #4 Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future.
Step #5 Apply forecasting tools and techniques, to predict reliably.
Step #6 Follow-up the forecast to determine the reasons for significant
deviations from expectations.
Step #7 Revise the forecast when necessary.
Diffusion of Innovation
Something new-an innovation-is proposed. It may appear in hit movie,
T.V. show, or music video and influence the buying decision of
million.
In fashion terms the innovation may be the invention of new fiber, a
new finish for denim, introduction of an unusual color range, a
modification in a silhouette or detail, a different way to wear an
accessory or mood expressed in a distinctive style. Once
introduction, it diffuses through the population as more &more
consumer have a chance either to accept or reject it.
Innovations life cycle

Early Adopters
Of Opinion
leader

No of
Adopters
Innovator
majority

laggards
Late
Adopters

Fashion leader Fashion Following


Characteristic of an
Innovation
Roger (1983) identified characteristic that
1. Relative Advantage
2. Compatibility
3. Complexity
4. Trial ability
5. Obserability
One Other characteristic inhibits or
encourages adoption of innovation –
perceived risk.
1. Economic risk
2. Enjoyment risk
3. Social risk
The consumer adoption
process
1. Adoption process by Roger (1962) included the stages of:
 Awareness
 Interest
 Evaluation
 Trial
 Adoption or rejection of the innovation.
2. Recent version of the process
as outline by Roger (1983) including
the following stages:
 Knowledge
 Persuasion
 Decision
 Implementation
 confirmation
3. Robertson (1971) proposed
another model of the adoption
process with following stages:
 Problem perception
 Awareness
 Comprehension
 Attitude formation
 Legitimation
 Trial
 Adoption
 Dissonance
Fashion Specialties
Forecasting is more than just attending runway show and picking
out potential trend can be knocked off at lower price.
It is a process that span shift in color & style, change in lifestyle &
buying pattern and different ways of doing business.
1. Long-term forecasting (5-years or more) is way
to explore possible future and build a shared vision of an
organization direction and development.
2. short-term forecasting (more than one year)
involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and
revision as circumstances dictate.
Future probes Forecasts

Fashion
scan Fashion
analysis

Consumer
scan
Trend Combined
analysis forecast
Cultural
indicator

Partner & Competitive


competitors analysis

Present Future
1. Fashion scan:-
Traveling to the fashion capitals
Scanning print, broadcast, and online sources for clues.
Networking with people in creative field.
2. Consumer scan:-
Consumer research is an important part of fashion forecasting today.
Consumer segmentation attempts to identify of cluster of people who
Share characteristics, usually some combination of demographic,
lifestyle, attitude, and behavior.
3. Fashion analysis
Together, Fashion scan and consumer scan provide input for fashion
analysis.
4.Social & economic trends
The shift to a casual life style and a consumer resistant to
following trend are manifestations of deep cultural changes in
society
5.Trend Analysis
Drawing on fashion and consumer scan and on identification of
social and economic trends analysis detects short and long
term trends that affect business prospects
6.Competitve Analysis
Apparel competes for consumer attention and dollars with many
other alternatives, including electronics and entertainment. To
be a competitive in such a business environment , companies
must observe the plan and capabilities of competing firms
through regular tracking of key information.
7.Integrated Forecasting
A team approach to forecasting means continuous information
sharing between functional groups with the goal of increasing
the quality of the forecast.
Defining Fashion
• In simplest terms fashion is a style that is popular in the present
or a set of trends that have been accepted by a wide audience.
Fashion is a complex phenomenon from psychological,
sociological, cultural or commercial points of view .
 Fashion as a social and psychological response
 Fashion as popular culture
 Fashion as change
 Fashion as universal phenomenon
 Fashion as a transfer of meaning
 Fashion as an economic stimulus
 Fashion and gender differences
Forecasters toolbox:
Visualizing the diffusion
process
The visualization of diffusion in the Rogers model (1962) shows a
two-step flow
 First step involves transmission of new ideas through the
impersonal influence of mass media & marketer based
information to innovator and leader.
 Second step depends on the personal influence within social
group as new ideas move from fashion leader to fashion
followers.
Impersonal influence
Magazines, T.V, advertising, Fashion promotion

Step 2
Personal
influence

Fashion followers

Innovative consumers
Opinion leaders
Forecasting in the Textile &
Apparel Industries
Even the fastest fast-fashion company need a picture of what
consumers will see new and exciting. Fashion forecasting
provides the tool to create that picture. Forecasters today
integrate traditional and electronic approaches to the process of
forecasting.

 Forecasting in apparel planning &scheduling.


 Scouting for fashion Trends.
Long-term forecasting
Economic cycle
Fiber components Lifestyle trends
Social trends
Yarn product Consumers preferences
Trends in Arts
Weavers& knitters
Fiber/yarn Textile
Forecasting
Fabric
Structure &
textures
Apparel Designers &
manufactures
Fabric
Pattern & prints

Retailers

Design concept
Silhouette & Details

Short tern forecasting


Style Testing
Color Trends Sales forecasting

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