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Oilsands emerger

Oilsands emerger

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Published by Ted Renner

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Published by: Ted Renner on Jan 26, 2011
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09/21/2012

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Good news and bad news: A lot of capacity but essentially only one market – The good news
is that with 3.3 mmbbl/d of export capacity pipelines are sufficient for all existing projects and
capacity exists for several years of development. Current pipeline proposals should also allow for
unfettered long-term growth in oil sands projects. Currently, the bad news is that Canadian oil
sands producers effectively have only one export market, primarily Padd II in the United States, in
which to sell bitumen. Markets are expanding into Padd III, but so far, markets beyond North
America are limited to 60,000 bbl/d of heavy oil capacity to the west coast (see Exhibit 17 & 18).
Expansions of 900,000 bbl/d of heavy oil capacity are being proposed (see Exhibit 18).

Exhibit 15: Alberta Oil Sands Pipelines

Source: ERCB

Sufficient export capacity visible for the next decade – Gathering systems in Alberta from the
Athabasca and Cold Lake regions have ample capacity to move current oil sands production of
about 1.3 mmbbl/d. These systems also have the capacity to handle volumes for many years of
project expansions. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) estimates that
existing pipelines that are either on line or going into service have sufficient capacity to handle
exports out of Alberta until about 2022.

The Oil Sands Manifesto

December 13, 2010

18 Mark Friesen, CFA

Exhibit 16: Alberta Oil Sands Pipelines

Pipeline

Destination

Capacity (bbl/d)

Product

Cold Lake

Hardisty, Edmonton

459

Heavy Crude

Husky Oil

Hardisty, Lloydminster

491

Heavy & SCO

Echo

Hardisty

75

Cold Lake Crude

Athabasca

Hardisty

390

Semiprocessed Product & Bitumen Blend

Corridor

Edmonton

300

Diluted Bitumen

Syncrude

Edmonton

389

Syncrude SCO

Oil Sands

Edmonton

145

Suncor Synthetic

Access

Edmonton

150

Diluted Bitumen

Waupisoo

Edmonton

350

Blended Bitumen

Horizon

Edmonton

250

Horizon SCO

Total

2,998

Source: ERCB and RBC Capital Markets

Exhibit 17: Current Export Pipelines

Pipeline

Destinations

Light Capacity
(mbbl/d)

Heavy Capacity
(mbbl/d)

Total Capacity
(mbbl/d)

Enbridge

Eastern Canada, U.S. East Coast & Midwest

1,072

796

1,868

Express

PADD II, PADD IV

98

182

280

Trans Mountain

B.C., U.S. West Coast, Offshore

240

60

300

AB Clipper

PADD II

-

450

450

Keystone

PADD II

109

326

435

Total

1,519

1,814

3,333

Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, ERCB and RBC Capital Markets

Exhibit 18: Proposed Export Pipelines

Pipeline

Destinations

Capacity
(mbbl/d)

Start-Up Date

Northern Gateway

B.C., U.S. West Coast, Offshore

500

2016

Trans Mountain TMX2

B.C., U.S. West Coast, Offshore

80

2012

Trans Mountain TMX3

B.C., U.S. West Coast, Offshore

320

2013

Keystone Cushing ExtensionPADD II

155

2011

Keystone XL

U.S. Gulf Coast

700

2012

Altex

U.S. Gulf Coast

~250

2014

Alberta to California

West Coast

400

2016+

Total

2,405

Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, ERCB and RBC Capital Markets

December 13, 2010

The Oil Sands Manifesto

Mark Friesen, CFA 19

Exhibit 19: Alberta Oil Sands Pipelines

Source: ERCB

The Oil Sands Manifesto

December 13, 2010

20 Mark Friesen, CFA

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