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6 | THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2010
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International Herald Tribune
THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
STEPHEN DUNBAR-JOHNSON Publisher
MARTIN GOTTLIEB Editor, Global Edition
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TIME’S UP
If the Security Council can’t act swiftly,
or decisively, to impose sanctions on
Iran, the U.S. and its allies must come
up with their own tough resolutions.
Over the last four years, the United Nations Security Council
has repeatedly demanded that Iran stop producing nuclear
fuel. Iran is still churning out enriched uranium and has now
told United Nations inspectors that it is raising the level of
enrichment — moving slightly closer to bomb-grade quality.
President Obama was right to offer to negotiate with
Tehran. Washington and its allies were right to look for possi-
ble compromises even after Tehran was caught — again —
hiding an enrichment plant.
Enough is enough. Iran needs to understand that its nucle-
ar ambition comes with a very high cost.
President Obama said on Tuesday that the United States
and its allies are “moving along fairly quickly” on a new
sanctions resolution. He also said it would take several weeks
to draft a proposal.
That is not reassuring. Once a resolution is written, the ne-
gotiating process can typically drag on for weeks, if not
months.
Iran is in such economic and political turmoil that its gov-
ernment may be more vulnerable to outside pressure. Securi-
ty forces have expanded a crackdown on the political opposi-
tion, arresting hundreds of people ahead of the anniversary
Thursday of the Iranian revolution.
American officials say they are eager to impose sanctions
that would inflict maximum damage on the Islamic Revolu-
tionary Guards Corps, which runs the nuclear program and a
large chunk of the Iranian economy.
The plan, as we understand it, is to block their banking,
their shipping, their insurance. American officials also say
they want to minimize the additional suffering of the Iranian
people.
That makes sense to us, although squaring the circle won’t
be easy.
If the Security Council is to move ahead with sanctions that
bite, Washington and its allies are going to have to step up
the pressure on Russia and China — Iran’s two enablers, both
with a veto — to go along.
Russia has signaled support for another resolution. If his-
tory is any guide, we fear Russia will sharply whittle down
the impact. China, eager to buy ever more oil from Iran, is an
even bigger obstacle.
China needs to understand that ensuring reliable oil sup-
plies would become a lot harder if the Middle East is roiled by
a nuclear-armed Iran.
The more the Security Council temporizes, compromises
and weakens these resolutions, the more defiant and ambi-
tious Iran becomes. If the Security Council can’t act swiftly,
or decisively, the United States and its allies will have to
come up with their own tough sanctions. They should be
making a backup plan right now.
Before the Fall of the Wall, there was the Miracle on Ice
Gerald Eskenazi
What a difference 30 years makes — in
sports, and in politics. Now, as the
United States team prepares for the 2010
Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver,
do we really care if we beat Russia?
How quaint it all seems now, and yet,
how significant — my memories of
writing about the baby-faced bunch of
Americans who were preparing for the
1980 Games in Lake Placid, New York.
Herb Brooks’s eyes narrowed. I
sensed he was making a fist. He began
to explain to me what it took, what he
planned, to defeat the vaunted Soviet
Olympic hockey team, the overwhelm-
ing favorite to capture the gold.
This Herbie was from the Midwest —
St. Paul, Minnesota — yet he described
himself as “a street kid.” Heck, I’m from
Brooklyn. That’s where street kids are
from. But he spoke passionately of creat-
ing an American style of hockey, a form
of sport making use of capitalistic ideals
— competition, exuberance, youth.
Forget the past. This was a new era.
It could have been a metaphor for an
American template. Indeed, it was.
He wanted to restore respect to his
country, which was being held hostage
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Dead end Russia
RUSSIA I
Prospects for
change are
bleak. But
rising resent-
ment of the
Kremlin is
potentially
explosive.
A misplaced fear of Russian money
RUSSIA II
Surreal allega-
tions of ‘eco-
nomic crimes’
and ‘money
laundering’
prevented my
company from
helping to save
Saab.
in Iran. He wanted us to be proud of
ourselves, our teams, and he knew that
President Jimmy Carter was threaten-
ing to boycott the Summer Games in
Moscow over the recent Soviet invasion
of Afghanistan.
I like to think that the downfall of the
once evil empire actually began with
American hockey. Indeed, the Cold War
helped create Soviet superiority in
many aspects of sport. The Soviets be-
lieved that victory on the playing field,
or the rink, would make them the envy
of other countries. Somehow, that would
be translated into believing the Soviet
political system was the better one.
So they tossed out traditional ideas of
how to become prolific at a sport. If a
coach spotted an 8-year-old with leader-
ship skills, why, he’d be perfect as a cen-
ter — the decision-maker on a hockey
line. They created dry-land training
routines, actually using a soccer ball in-
stead of a puck, so that the players
learned how to kick with their skates.
They were relentless, unemotional.
They were the Soviet bear. But emo-
tion, said Brooks, was what it would
take to beat the fabled Soviets, who
made no distinction between amateur
and professional. They had defeated
this young American team 10-3 in an ex-
hibition game. Some years earlier, they
had shocked Canada’s nervous system
Fraser Cameron
President Dmitri Medvedev has pub-
licly stated that Russia needs to change
course if it does not want to end up as a
third-world country. Igor Shuvalov, the
first deputy prime minister, recently
told investors that although Russia had
suffered its worse recession in a de-
cade, it would be transformed into a
“new country” by 2020 through innova-
tion and investment in “human capital.”
He said the investment climate would
be significantly improved within a year
through a reduction of red tape and a
clean-up of the court system.
The problem is that we’ve heard this
before. When Vladimir Putin moved into
the Kremlin a decade ago he promised
Vladimir Antonov
Over the past few months, there has
been a chain of strange events sur-
rounding Spyker’s takeover of Saab.
During the last eight years, Saab
caused a $4 billion loss for its owner,
General Motors. The situation was ag-
gravated by the economic crisis: From
January to October 2009, Saab sales in
Europe fell by 59 percent from the same
period in 2008 while the whole Euro-
pean market fell by only 5 percent.
G.M., whose survival was threatened
by the world financial crisis, started to
get rid of its activities in Europe. For
Europeans, thousands of jobs were sud-
denly at risk. Nonetheless, the Swedish
government repeatedly declared that it
did not want to spend public money to
rescue this famous national brand, Saab.
What would have happened if the
company had not found a new investor?
Bankruptcy, with the layoff of thousands
of workers. What, other than a well-pre-
pared takeover by a company like
Spyker, could have been the solution?
Yet, just in time, someone noticed that
29.9 percent of Spyker’s shares be-
longed to my company. Surreal allega-
tions of alleged “economic crimes,”
“money laundering” and other false
by routing its National Hockey League
all-stars in the opening game of their
fabled series. It led one of the N.H.L.’s
best, Frank Mahovlich, to marvel,
“Give them a football, and in a year
they’ll win the Super Bowl.”
I was touring with the young U.S.
hockey team. Brooks was a college
coach, a decent enough player as a kid,
but not good enough to make the cut on
the last U.S. team to win a gold medal,
back in 1960. After that, the Soviets had
taken the big prize in every Olympics.
Now I see that Brooks’s ideas were
also a microcosm of capitalist society,
and the way it eventually defeated the
Soviet Union off the ice.
There were two great hockey-playing
centers in the United States —New
England, particularly the Boston area,
and the colder regions of the Midwest
— especially Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Brooks played the players from the two
regions against each other. He named a
scrappy guy named Mike Eruzione
from Boston University as his captain.
He put players from Minnesota on the
ice, then scrapped them for New
Englanders, then reversed the order.
Brooks had only a few months to put
a team together. He made himself the
brunt of the team’s anger and annoy-
ance. He felt that would help them co-
alesce as well.
to ensure the rule of law and to tackle
corruption. But under his watch there
has been no progress toward an inde-
pendent judiciary, and the corrupt bu-
reaucracy has been allowed to expand.
It was under Mr. Putin that assets
were taken from Yukos, Shell and BP. It
was under Mr. Putin that a growing
number of journalists such as Anna
Politkovskaya were killed with impuni-
ty. It is little wonder, therefore, that in-
vestors are skeptical about new
pledges to tackle rampant corruption or
diversify the economy away from a
raw-materials base.
As the oil price rose during Mr.
Putin’s term, he was able to ensure pen-
sions and wages were paid on time. But
he completely failed to encourage in-
vestment in new industries, technol-
ogies or infrastructure.
Now Russia is facing crunch time.
ELLEN WEINSTEIN
horror stories about my business
emerged. The main aim of those who
should have been worried about Saab’s
survival now moved to ensure the ex-
clusion of this “evil” Russian investor.
On Dec. 18, the deal between G.M.
and Spyker was suspended. I was
forced to give up my investment in
Spyker because the Swedish govern-
ment had threatened to veto the deal,
insinuating that I had ties with criminal
organizations. There was no proof, but
rumors were spread in the media.
On Jan. 27, the takeover was con-
cluded in a new format. G.M. represen-
tatives said they were glad to see that
the Russian investor had abandoned the
deal. As a result, Swedish taxpayers will
take on a large burden because their
government became the guarantor of a
credit of ¤400 million granted to Spyker
by the European Investment Bank.
After all the noise, we can see that
what really mattered was the national-
ity of the investor. Several months ago,
something similar happened when
G.M. seemed ready to sell the German
carmaker Opel. The buyer was a con-
sortium of the Austrian-Canadian com-
pany Magna and Russia’s Sberbank.
The agreement was broken literally at
the last minute. Why? It is hard to
imagine that Sberbank, the largest
state bank in Russia, really has a prob-
lem with its reputation or reliability.
I had to convince Arthur Gelb, the
New York Times’s managing editor, to
send me to Lake Placid. The paper
didn’t think it was worth the money to
send a reporter to cover ice sports.
When, magically, the United States
scored early upset victories, when the
crowd in the tiny, 7,000-seat Lake Placid
Arena — which looked like a cock-fight-
ing amphitheater — began chanting
“USA! USA!” routinely, the Americans
were poised to face the might Soviets.
Actually, the U.S. did not defeat the
Soviets for the gold medal. The last
round wasn’t starting until Sunday, and
this was a Friday afternoon game. In
fact, the ABC television network
thought so little of the public’s interest,
that it didn’t even show the game live.
It was taped for a later showing.
Meanwhile, I was up in my aerie in
the badly ventilated, cigarette-smoke-
filled arena. I had a newfangled com-
puter, but it was too big for the press
box. Instead, one of our reporters was
to file my typewritten copy from the
basement. When a game was over,
rather than buck the crowds all the way
down to the bowels of the ancient place,
I had to figure out another way to get in
my story.
I had my old Olivetti portable. I typed
the story. Page one was finished. I then
rolled the paper into a ball. On a bal-
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE
editorial opinion
The funds that were accumulated dur-
ing the good years are about to run out.
Top companies like Gazprom are close
to bankruptcy and face huge problems
due to the lack of investment in the en-
ergy sector. State-controlled conglom-
erates and banks have been propped up
by the state but small and medium en-
terprises, essential for future growth,
have been neglected.
Much of Russia’ infrastructure is
crumbling. There are hundreds of mono-
cities — company towns dependent on
one enterprise — without a future.
There is a massive rich-poor gap and an
even bigger gap between the regions.
There has been a growing number of
protests, from Kaliningrad to Vladivos-
tok, over social and economic condi-
tions. Even the elite do not believe in the
future of Russia. They do not keep their
money in the country and they send
their children abroad to be educated.
A recent report by the Institute of
Contemporary Development, an influ-
ential think-tank close to Mr. Medve-
dev, called for a number of reforms. To
encourage political competition, it said
there should be a return to the system
of electing governors and senators,
practices abolished by Mr. Putin when
he was president. The report also called
for greater freedom in the media (the
state controls 93 percent of all media
outlets) to help expose corruption and
encourage political debate.
Unfortunately, but not surprisingly,
the report found zero resonance in the
media. The ruling United Russia party,
controlled by Mr. Putin, saw no need for
change either. The Duma is a rubber
stamp for the executive and most depu-
ties are more interested in enriching
themselves than controlling the gov-
ernment.
Some observers think that the United
States and the European Union could
press Russia to change its ways. Presi-
dent Obama, however, has set his hopes
on securing Moscow’s assistance in
Recently, another Russian business-
man was forced by Swiss authorities to
pay a penalty of 40 million Swiss francs
over the purchase of Oerlikon by Ren-
ova, a transaction which in the authorit-
ies’ opinion was accompanied by “con-
siderable infringements” of
bureaucratic formalities. Are there
cases like these involving investors
with nationalities other than Russian?
These incidents have nothing to do
with economic freedom and transpar-
ency. It is obvious that European busi-
ness has a strong prejudices against in-
vestors from Russia. There is a fear of
Russia itself, of the increase of the influ-
ence of Russian businesses in the inter-
national market place. Maybe the mo-
ment has come for Europe to analyze
this more attentively.
Out of economic self-interest, the
United States wants to bar Russia from
participating in enterprises involving
advanced technologies. But is there
really any reason for a competitive
struggle in industry? I doubt it. You will
hardly hear of high demand for Russian-
made cars on the European market.
Everybody knows that the Russian mo-
tor industry needs more than a decade to
become even close to competitive. Some
experts question whether competitive-
ness in this field can be reached at all.
Hence it is probable that the reasons
are political. But should a private
cony one floor below, Dave Anderson,
our Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist,
was waiting. I tossed him the paper. He
caught it and rushed down the stairs.
Then he came up again. I typed Page 2,
and sailed it down to him.
It was 4-3 for the U.S. with 10 minutes
left. The minutes ticked away, then the
seconds. Al Michaels, the play-by-play
announcer, shouted into the micro-
phone, “Do you believe in miracles?”
Moments later, he screamed, “Yes!”
Goalie Jim Craig draped himself in
the American flag as he scanned the
stands. “Where’s my father?” he re-
peated.
The next Sunday morning the team
defeated the Finns and won the gold
medal.
Some time later Brooks and Michaels
were reunited. Brooks said to the an-
nouncer about that “miracle” call, “A
bit over the top, wasn’t it, Al?”
Then Brooks smiled.
Hard to imagine today that a player
would wrap himself in his country’s
flag, would see a victory as something
symbolic, one system better than an-
other. Perhaps, in a way, we’ve made
some progress.
GERALD ESKENAZIwas for more than 40
years a sportswriter for The New York
Times.
dealing with his twin foreign policy chal-
lenges, Iran and Afghanistan. But there
is no evidence that Moscow is ready,
able or willing to deliver on either issue.
At the E.U.-Russia summit in Stock-
holm last November, José Manuel Bar-
roso, the president of the European
Commission, promised to help Russia
with its modernization agenda. But ne-
gotiations between the E.U. and Russia
for a new partnership agreement are
making glacial progress. Russia cannot
make up its mind whether to join the
World Trade Organization. Russia’s dis-
torted world view also makes it difficult
to move to a win-win scenario in energy.
Thinking in Russia’s elites is still dom-
inated by a win-lose mentality, especially
when it comes to pipelines and Ukraine,
Belarus and Georgia. Both Mr. Putin and
Mr. Medvedev talk of Russia’s right to
have a sphere of influence in Eastern
Europe. There is no understanding that
a ring of stable, prosperous and demo-
cratic neighbors would actually be in the
long-term interests of Russia.
But maybe they do comprehend that
such a development would lead many
more in Russia to question Putin-Med-
vedev policies. Speculation about splits
in the tandem is just that — speculation.
Mr. Medvedev owes his position 100
percent to Mr. Putin. It suits both to play
the “good cop, bad cop” role from time
to time, but in reality there are no funda-
mental differences between the two.
The prospects for change in Russia,
therefore, are bleak. But public opinion
is becoming increasingly resentful of
government inaction and the situation
could become explosive in the near fu-
ture. The outside world can only influ-
ence developments at the margins. Still,
we should not weaken our support for
the liberal, democratic forces seeking to
change the system. Their fight is ours.
FRASER CAMERON is director of the E.U.
Russia Centre, an independent informa-
tion resource on Russia.
American shareholder care about poli-
tics? Should a Swedish worker care
about international politics? The 2,400
workers of the Opel plant which is to be
closed in Antwerp had the bitter experi-
ence of learning what happens when
politics interferes with business.
The interests of Europe and the
United States obviously do not coin-
cide when it comes to crisis invest-
ments. The European economy needs
capital from countries that have higher
growth rates, like China, India, Brazil
and Russia. They will probably recov-
er faster than the United States and
consequently will take advantageous
positions in the post-crisis world econ-
omy.
It would be unreasonable to create
situations in which European compa-
nies appear unattractive to Russian in-
vestors because the investors risk be-
ing exposed to humiliating procedures
and public slander.
Maybe it would be fairer to trust Rus-
sian business. Maybe national preju-
dices can be abandoned for good. Oth-
erwise European countries and brands
will become victims of their own nar-
row-mindedness as Russian capital
finds new, more progressive markets.
VLADIMIR ANTONOV, a Russian entrepre-
neur and investor, is chairman of Con-
vers Group in Moscow.
HEINZ KLUETMEIER/SPORTS ILLUSTRATED-GETTY IMAGES