Climate Change Reconsidered

Lead Authors
Craig Idso (USA), S. Fred Singer (USA)

Contributors and Reviewers
Warren Anderson (USA), J. Scott Armstrong (USA), Dennis Avery (USA), Franco Battaglia (Italy), Robert Carter (Australia), Piers Corbyn (UK), Richard Courtney (UK), Joseph d’Aleo (USA), Don Easterbrook (USA), Fred Goldberg (Sweden), Vincent Gray (New Zealand), William Gray (USA), Kesten Green (Australia), Kenneth Haapala (USA), David Hagen (USA), Klaus Heiss (Austria), Zbigniew Jaworowski (Poland), Olavi Karner (Estonia), Richard Alan Keen (USA), Madhav Khandekar (Canada), William Kininmonth (Australia), Hans Labohm (Netherlands), Anthony Lupo (USA), Howard Maccabee (USA), H. Michael Mogil (USA), Christopher Monckton (UK), Lubos Motl (Czech Republic), Stephen Murgatroyd (Canada), Nicola Scafetta (USA), Harrison Schmitt (USA), Tom Segalstad (Norway), George Taylor (USA), Dick Thoenes (Netherlands), Anton Uriarte (Spain), Gerd Weber (Germany)

Editors
Joseph L. Bast (USA), Diane Carol Bast (USA)

2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)
Published for the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)

! Climate Change Reconsidered
8 2009, Science and Environmental Policy Project and Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change Published by THE HEARTLAND INSTITUTE 19 South LaSalle Street #903 Chicago, Illinois 60603 U.S.A. phone +1 (312) 377-4000 fax +1 (312) 377-5000 www.heartland.org All rights reserved, including the right to reproduce this book or portions thereof in any form. Opinions expressed are solely those of the authors. Nothing in this report should be construed as reflecting the views of the Science and Environmental Policy Project, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, or The Heartland Institute, or as an attempt to influence pending legislation. Additional copies of this book are available from the Science and Environmental Policy Project, The Heartland Institute, and Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change at the following prices: 1-10 copies 11-50 copies 51-100 copies 101 or more $154 per copy $123 per copy $98 per copy $79 per copy

Please use the following citation for this report: Craig Idso and S. Fred Singer, Climate Change Reconsidered: 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Chicago, IL: The Heartland Institute, 2009. Printed in the United States of America ISBN-13 – 978-1-934791-28-8 ISBN-10 – 1-934791-28-8 June 2009

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Preface
! Before facing major surgery, wouldn’t you want a second opinion? When a nation faces an important decision that risks its economic future, or perhaps the fate of the ecology, it should do the same. It is a time-honored tradition in science to set up a “Team B,” which examines the same original evidence but may reach a different conclusion. The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) was set up to examine the same climate data used by the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In 2007, the IPCC released to the public its threevolume Fourth Assessment Report titled Climate Change 2007 (IPCC-AR4, 2007). Its constituent documents were said by the IPCC to comprise “the most comprehensive and up-to-date reports available on the subject,” and to constitute “the standard reference for all concerned with climate change in academia, government and industry worldwide.” But are these characterizations correct? On the most important issue, the IPCC’s claim that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations [emphasis in the original],” NIPCC reaches the opposite conclusion— namely, that natural causes are very likely to be the dominant cause. Note: We do not say anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) cannot produce some warming or has not in the past. Our conclusion is that the evidence shows they are not playing a substantial role. Almost as importantly, on the question of what effects the present and future warming might have on human health and the natural environment, the IPCC says global warming will “increase the number of people suffering from death, disease and injury from heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.” The NIPCC again reaches the opposite conclusion: A warmer world will be a safer and healthier world for humans and wildlife alike. Once again, we do not say global warming won’t occur or have any effects (positive or negative) on human health and wildlife. !
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Rather, our conclusion is that the evidence shows the net effect of continued warming and rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will be beneficial to humans, plants, and wildlife. We have reviewed the materials presented in the first two volumes of the Fourth Assessment—The Physical Science Basis and Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—and we find them to be highly selective and controversial with regard to making future projections of climate change and discerning a significant human-induced influence on current and past climatic trends. Although the IPCC claims to be unbiased and to have based AR4 on the best available science, such is not the case. In many instances conclusions have been seriously exaggerated, relevant facts have been distorted, and key scientific studies have been omitted or ignored. We present support for this thesis in the body of this volume, where we describe and reference thousands of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that document scientific or historical facts that contradict the IPCC’s central claims, that global warming is man-made and that its effects will be catastrophic. Some of this research became available after the AR4’s self-imposed deadline of May 2006, but much of it was in the scientific record that was available to, and should have been familiar to, the IPCC’s editors. Below, we first sketch the history of the IPCC and NIPCC, which helps explain why two scientific bodies could study the same data and come to very different conclusions. We then explain the list of 31,478 American scientists that appears in Appendix 4, and end by expressing what we hoped to achieve by producing this report.

A Brief History of the IPCC
The rise in environmental consciousness since the 1970s has focused on a succession of ‘calamities’: cancer epidemics from chemicals, extinction of birds and other species by pesticides, the depletion of the

Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! the Montreal Protocol, environmental lawyer David ozone layer by supersonic transports and later by Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council freons, the death of forests (‘Waldsterben’) because then laid out a plan to achieve the same kind of of acid rain, and finally, global warming, the “mother control mechanism for greenhouse gases, a plan that of all environmental scares” (according to the late eventually was adopted as the Kyoto Protocol. Aaron Wildavsky). From the very beginning, the IPCC was a The IPCC can trace its roots to World Earth Day political rather than scientific entity, with its leading in 1970, the Stockholm Conference in 1971-72, and scientists reflecting the positions of their governments the Villach Conferences in 1980 and 1985. In July or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the 1986, the United Nations Environment Program IPCC position. In particular, a small group of activists (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (WMO) established the Intergovernmental Panel on (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports (McKitrick Climate Change (IPCC) as an organ of the United et al., 2007). Nations. While we are often told about the thousands of The IPCC’s key personnel and lead authors were scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are appointed by governments, and its Summaries for based, the vast majority of these scientists had no Policymakers (SPM) have been subject to approval by direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the member governments of the UN. The scientists IPCC. Those policy summaries were produced by an involved with the IPCC are almost all supported by inner core of scientists, and the SPMs were revised government contracts, which pay not only for their and agreed to, line-by-line, by representatives of research but for their IPCC activities. Most travel to member governments. This obviously is not how real and hotel accommodations at exotic locations for the scientific research is reviewed and published. drafting authors is paid with government funds. These SPMs turn out, in all cases, to be highly The history of the IPCC has been described in selective summaries of the voluminous science several publications. What is not emphasized, reports—typically 800 or more pages, with no however, is the fact that it was an activist enterprise indexes (except, finally, the Fourth Assessment from the very beginning. Its agenda was to justify Report released in 2007), and essentially unreadable control of the emission of greenhouse gases, except by dedicated scientists. especially carbon dioxide. Consequently, its scientific The IPCC’s First Assessment Report (IPCC-FAR, reports have focused solely on evidence that might 1990) concluded that the observed temperature point toward human-induced climate change. The role changes were “broadly consistent” with greenhouse of the IPCC “is to assess on a comprehensive, models. Without much analysis, it gave the “climate objective, open and transparent basis the latest sensitivity” of a 1.5 to 4.5º C rise for a doubling of scientific, technical and socio-economic literature greenhouse gases. The IPCC-FAR led to the adoption produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of of the Global Climate Treaty at the 1992 Earth the risk of human-induced climate change, its Summit in Rio de Janeiro. observed and projected impacts and options for The FAR drew a critical response (SEPP, 1992). adaptation and mitigation” [emphasis added] (IPCC FAR and the IPCC’s style of work also were 2008). criticized in two editorials in Nature (Anonymous, The IPCC’s three chief ideologues have been (the 1994, Maddox, 1991). late) Professor Bert Bolin, a meteorologist at The IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (IPCCStockholm University; Dr. Robert Watson, an SAR, 1995) was completed in 1995 and published in atmospheric chemist at NASA, later at the World 1996. Its SPM contained the memorable conclusion, Bank, and now chief scientist at the UK Department “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; and Dr. human influence on global climate.” The SAR was John Houghton, an atmospheric radiation physicist at again heavily criticized, this time for having Oxford University, later head of the UK Met Office undergone significant changes in the body of the as Sir John Houghton. report to make it ‘conform’ to the SPM—after it was Watson had chaired a self-appointed group to find finally approved by the scientists involved in writing evidence for a human effect on stratospheric ozone the report. Not only was the report altered, but a key and was instrumental in pushing for the 1987 graph was also doctored to suggest a human Montreal Protocol to control the emission of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Using the blueprint of !
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Preface! ! was closed for renovation, and then finally, but only influence. The evidence presented to support the SPM under pressure, posted them online. Inspection of conclusion turned out to be completely spurious. those comments revealed that the authors had rejected There is voluminous material available about more than half of all the reviewers’ comments in the these text changes, including a Wall Street Journal crucial chapter attributing recent warming to human editorial article by Dr. Frederick Seitz (Seitz, 1996). activities. This led to heated discussions between supporters of AR4 concluded that “most of the observed the IPCC and those who were aware of the altered increase in global average temperatures since the midtext and graph, including an exchange of letters in the 20th century is very likely due to the observed Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas (Singer et al., 1997). concentrations” (emphasis in the original). However, SAR also provoked the 1996 publication of the as the present report will show, it ignored available Leipzig Declaration by SEPP, which was signed by evidence against a human contribution to current some 100 climate scientists. A booklet titled The warming and the substantial research of the past few Scientific Case Against the Global Climate Treaty years on the effects of solar activity on climate followed in September 1997 and was translated into change. several languages. (SEPP, 1997. All these are Why have IPCC reports been marred by available online at www.sepp.org.) In spite of its controversy and so frequently contradicted by obvious shortcomings, the IPCC report provided the subsequent research? Certainly its agenda to find underpinning for the Kyoto Protocol, which was evidence of a human role in climate change is a major adopted in December 1997. The background is reason; its organization as a government entity described in detail in the booklet Climate Policy— beholden to political agendas is another major reason; From Rio to Kyoto, published by the Hoover and the large professional and financial rewards that Institution (Singer, 2000). go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a (IPCC-TAR 2001) was noteworthy for its use of third major reason. spurious scientific papers to back up its SPM claim of Another reason for the IPCC’s unreliability is the “new and stronger evidence” of anthropogenic global naive acceptance by policymakers of “peer-reviewed” warming. One of these was the so-called “hockeyliterature as necessarily authoritative. It has become stick” paper, an analysis of proxy data, which claimed the case that refereeing standards for many climatethe twentieth century was the warmest in the past change papers are inadequate, often because of the 1,000 years. The paper was later found to contain use of an “invisible college” of reviewers of like basic errors in its statistical analysis (McIntyre and inclination to a paper’s authors (Wegman et al., McKitrick, 2003, 2005; Wegman et al., 2006). The 2006). Policy should be set upon a background of IPCC also supported a paper that claimed pre-1940 demonstrable science, not upon simple (and often warming was of human origin and caused by mistaken) assertions that, because a paper was greenhouse gases. This work, too, contained refereed, its conclusions must be accepted. fundamental errors in its statistical analysis. The SEPP response to TAR was a 2002 booklet, The Kyoto Protocol is Not Backed by Science (SEPP, 2002). Nongovernmental International Panel on The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Climate Change (NIPCC) (IPCC-AR4 2007) was published in 2007; the SPM of Working Group I was released in February; and the When new errors and outright falsehoods were full report from this Working Group was released in observed in the initial drafts of AR4, SEPP set up a May—after it had been changed, once again, to “Team B” to produce an independent evaluation of “conform” to the Summary. It is significant that AR4 the available scientific evidence. While the initial no longer makes use of the hockey-stick paper or the organization took place at a meeting in Milan in 2003, paper claiming pre-1940 human-caused warming. Team B was activated after the AR4 SPM appeared in Once again controversy ensued, however, this time February 2007. It changed its name to the when the IPCC refused to publicly share comments Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate submitted by peer-reviewers, then sent all the Change (NIPCC) and organized an international reviewers’ comments in hard copy to a library that climate workshop in Vienna in April 2007.
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Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! we choose to speak up for science at a time when too The present report stems from the Vienna few people outside the scientific community know workshop and subsequent research and contributions what is happening, and too few scientists who know by a larger group of international scholars. For a list the truth have the will or the platforms to speak out of those contributors, see page ii. Craig Idso then against the IPCC. made a major contribution to the report by tapping the NIPCC is what its name suggests: an international extensive collection of reviews of scientific research panel of nongovernment scientists and scholars who he helped collect and write, which is available on the have come together to understand the causes and Web site of the Center for the Study of Carbon consequences of climate change. Because we are not Dioxide and Global Change (www.CO2science.org). predisposed to believe climate change is caused by A Summary for Policymakers, edited by S. Fred human greenhouse gas emissions, we are able to look Singer, was published by The Heartland Institute in at evidence the IPCC ignores. Because we do not 2008 under the title Nature, Not Human Activity, work for any governments, we are not biased toward Rules the Planet (Singer, 2008). Since the summary the assumption that greater government activity is was completed prior to a major expansion and necessary. completion of the full NIPCC report, the two documents now stand on their own as independent scholarly works and substantially agree. What was our motivation? It wasn’t financial The Petition Project self-interest: Except for a foundation grant late in the process to enable Craig Idso to devote the many hours Attached as Appendix 4 to this report is a description necessary to assemble and help edit the final product, of “The Petition Project” and a directory of the no grants or contributions were provided or promised 31,478 American scientists who have signed the in return for producing this report. It wasn’t political: following statement: No government agency commissioned or authorized our efforts, and we do not advise or support the We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in candidacies of any politicians or candidates for public Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other office. similar proposals. The proposed limits on We donated our time and best efforts to produce greenhouse gases would harm the environment, this report out of concern that the IPCC was hinder the advance of science and technology, and provoking an irrational fear of anthropogenic global damage the health and welfare of mankind. warming based on incomplete and faulty science. There is no convincing scientific evidence Global warming hype has led to demands for that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or unrealistic efficiency standards for cars, the other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the construction of uneconomic wind and solar energy foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of stations, the establishment of large production the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial facilities for uneconomic biofuels such as ethanol scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric from corn, requirements that electric companies carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects purchase expensive power from so-called upon the natural plant and animal environments of “renewable” energy sources, and plans to sequester, at the Earth. considerable expense, carbon dioxide emitted from power plants. While there is nothing wrong with This is a remarkably strong statement of dissent initiatives to increase energy efficiency or diversify from the perspective advanced by the IPCC, and it is energy sources, they cannot be justified as a realistic similar to the perspective represented by the NIPCC means to control climate. Neither does science justify and the current report. The fact that more than ten policies that try to hide the huge cost of greenhouse times as many scientists have signed it as are alleged gas controls, such as cap and trade, a “clean to have “participated” in some way or another in the development mechanism,” carbon offsets, and similar research, writing, and review of IPCC AR4 is very schemes that enrich a few at the expense of the rest of significant. These scientists, who include among their us. number 9,029 individuals with Ph.D.s, actually Seeing science clearly misused to shape public endorse the statement that appears above. By contrast, policies that have the potential to inflict severe fewer than 100 of the scientists (and nonscientists) economic harm, particularly on low-income groups, who are listed in the appendices to the IPCC AR4 !
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Preface! ! Czech Republic and 2009 president of the Council of actually participated in the writing of the allthe European Union; Helmut Schmidt, former important Summary for Policymakers or the editing German chancellor; and Lord Nigel Lawson, former of the final report to comply with the summary, and United Kingdom chancellor of the exchequer. There therefore could be said to endorse the main findings is some evidence that policymakers world-wide are of that report. Consequently, we cannot say for sure reconsidering the wisdom of efforts to legislate whether more than 100 scientists in the entire world reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. actually endorse the most important claims that We regret that many advocates in the debate have appear in the IPCC AR4 report. chosen to give up debating the science and focus We will not make the same mistake as the IPCC. almost exclusively on questioning the motives of We do not claim the 31,478 scientists whose names “skeptics,” name-calling, and ad hominem attacks. appear at the end of this report endorse all of the We view this as a sign of desperation on their part, findings and conclusions of this report. As the authors and a sign that the debate has shifted toward climate of the petition say (in an introduction to the directory realism. of signers in Appendix 4), “signatories to the petition We hope the present study will help bring reason have signed just the petition—which speaks for and balance back into the debate over climate change, itself.” We append the list of their names to this report and by doing so perhaps save the peoples of the world with the permission of the persons who maintain the from the burden of paying for wasteful, unnecessary list to demonstrate unequivocally the broad support energy and environmental policies. We stand ready to within the scientific community for the general defend the analysis and conclusion in the study that perspective expressed in this report, and to highlight follows, and to give further advice to policymakers one of the most telling differences between the who are open-minded on this most important topic. NIPCC and the IPCC. For more information about The Petition Project, including the text of the letter endorsing it written by the late Dr. Frederick Seitz, past president of the National Academy of Sciences and president emeritus of Rockefeller University, please turn to Appendix 4 or visit the project’s Web site at S. Fred Singer, Ph.D. www.petitionproject.org. President, Science and Environmental Policy Project Professor Emeritus of Environmental Science, University of Virginia www.sepp.org Looking Ahead The public’s fear of anthropogenic global warming, despite almost hysterical coverage of the issue by the mainstream media, seems to have hit a ceiling and is falling. Only 34 percent of Americans polled (Rasmussen Reports, 2009) believe humans are causing global warming. A declining number even believe the Earth is experiencing a warming trend (Pew Research Center, 2008). A poll of 12,000 people in 11 countries, commissioned by the financial institution HSBC and environmental advocacy groups, found only one in five respondents—20 percent—said they would be willing to spend any extra money to reduce climate change, down from 28 percent a year earlier (O’Neil, 2008). While the present report makes it clear that the scientific debate is tilting away from global warming alarmism, we are pleased to see the political debate also is not over. Global warming “skeptics” in the policy arena include Vaclav Klaus, president of the

Craig D. Idso, Ph.D. Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change www.co2science.org

Acknowledgments: The editors thank Joseph and Diane Bast of The Heartland Institute for their editorial skill and R. Warren Anderson for his technical assistance. www.heartland.org

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Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! References
Anonymous 1994. IPCC’s ritual on global warming. Nature 371: 269. IPCC-AR4 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. IPCC-FAR 1990. Scientific Assessment of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. IPCC-SAR 1996. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. IPCC-TAR 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Maddox J. 1991. Making global warming public property. Nature 349: 189. McIntyre, S. and McKitrick, R. 2003. Corrections to Mann et al. (1998) proxy data base and northern hemisphere average temperature series. Energy & Environment 14: 751-777. McIntyre, S. and McKitrick, R. 2005. Hockey sticks, principal components and spurious significance. Geophysical Research Letters 32 L03710. McKitrick, R. 2007. Independent Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Ed. Fraser Institute. Vancouver, BC. O’Neil, P. 2008. Efforts to support global climate-change falls: Poll. Canwest News Service, 27 Nov. Pew Research Center 2008. A deeper partisan divide over global warming, summary of findings. 8 May. http://people-press.org Rasmussen Reports 2009. Energy Update. April 17. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/ Seitz, F. 1996. A major deception on global warming. The Wall Street Journal, 12 June. SEPP 1992. The Greenhouse Debate Continued: An Analysis and Critique of the IPCC Climate Assessment. ICS Press, San Francisco, CA. SEPP 1997. The Scientific Case Against the Global Climate Treaty. www.sepp.org/publications/GWbooklet/ GW.html [Also available in German, French, and Spanish]. Singer, S.F. 1997, 1999. Hot Talk Cold Science. The Independent Institute, Oakland CA. Singer, S.F. 2008. Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate. The Heartland Institute, Chicago, IL. Wegman, E., Scott, D.W. and Said, Y. 2006. Ad Hoc Committee Report to Chairman of the House Committee on Energy & Commerce and to the Chairman of the House sub-committee on Oversight & Investigations on the Hockey-stick Global Climate Reconstructions. US House of Representatives, Washington DC.

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Table of Contents
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Preface ............................................................................................................................................iii Executive Summary........................................................................................................................1 1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations .........................................................................9 1.1. Models and Forecasts ...............................................................................................................9 1.2 Radiation..................................................................................................................................12 1.3. Clouds ......................................................................................................................................16 1.4. Precipitation .............................................................................................................................22 2. Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing ..............................................................................27 2.1. Clouds ......................................................................................................................................27 2.2. Carbonyl Sulfide ......................................................................................................................29 2.3. Diffuse Light .............................................................................................................................30 2.4. Iodocompounds .......................................................................................................................34 2.5. Nitrous Oxide ...........................................................................................................................35 2.6. Methane ...................................................................................................................................37 2.7. Dimethyl Sulfide .......................................................................................................................45 2.8. Aerosols ...................................................................................................................................48 3. Observations: Temperature Records .....................................................................................63 3.1. Paleoclimate Data ...................................................................................................................63 3.2. Past 1,000 Years .....................................................................................................................66 3.3. Urban Heat Islands ..................................................................................................................95 3.4. Fingerprints ............................................................................................................................106 3.5. Satellite Data .........................................................................................................................109 3.6. Arctic ......................................................................................................................................114 3.7. Antarctic .................................................................................................................................131 4. Observations: Glaciers, Sea Ice, Precipitation, and Sea Level.........................................135 4.1. Glaciers .................................................................................................................................135 4.2. Sea Ice ...................................................................................................................................152 4.3. Precipitation Trends ..............................................................................................................162 4.4. Streamflow ............................................................................................................................175 4.5. Sea-level Rise........................................................................................................................184 5. Solar Variability and Climate Cycles ....................................................................................207 5.1. Cosmic Rays..........................................................................................................................208 5.2. Irradiance ...............................................................................................................................220 5.3. Temperature ..........................................................................................................................233 5.4. Precipitation ...........................................................................................................................258 5.5. Droughts ................................................................................................................................268 5.6. Floods ....................................................................................................................................273 5.7. Monsoons ..............................................................................................................................274 5.8. Streamflow .............................................................................................................................278

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6. Observations: Extreme Weather ...........................................................................................281 6.1. Droughts ...............................................................................................................................281 6.2. Floods ....................................................................................................................................302 6.3. Tropical Cyclones .................................................................................................................309 6.4. ENSO .....................................................................................................................................330 6.5. Precipitation Variability .........................................................................................................336 6.6. Storms ...................................................................................................................................341 6.7. Snow ......................................................................................................................................347 6.8. Storm Surges ........................................................................................................................351 6.9. Temperature Variability ........................................................................................................352 6.10. Wildfires ...............................................................................................................................355 7. Biological Effects of Carbon Dioxide Enrichment ..............................................................361 7.1. Plant Productivity Responses ...............................................................................................362 7.2. Water Use Efficiency ............................................................................................................409 7.3. Amelioration of Environmental Stresses ..............................................................................414 7.4. Acclimation ...........................................................................................................................480 7.5. Competition ...........................................................................................................................487 7.6. Respiration ............................................................................................................................491 7.7. Carbon Sequestration ............................................................................................................497 7.8. Other Benefits .......................................................................................................................517 7.9. Greening of the Earth ...........................................................................................................551 8. Species Extinction ..................................................................................................................579 8.1. Explaining Extinction .............................................................................................................579 8.2. Terrestrial Plants....................................................................................................................590 8.3. Coral Reefs ............................................................................................................................596 8.4. Polar Bears ............................................................................................................................639 9. Human Health Effects ............................................................................................................663 9.1. Diseases ................................................................................................................................664 9.2. Nutrition .................................................................................................................................676 9.3. Human Longevity ...................................................................................................................691 9.4. Food vs. Nature .....................................................................................................................695 9.5. Biofuels ..................................................................................................................................701

APPENDIX 1: Acronyms ............................................................................................................ 709 APPENDIX 2: Plant Dry Weight Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment...........................713 APPENDIX 3: Plant Photosynthesis Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment ....................727 APPENDIX 4: The Petition Project..............................................................................................739

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Executive Summary
! The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group-1 (Science) (IPCC-AR4 2007), released in 2007, is a major research effort by a group of dedicated specialists in many topics related to climate change. It forms a valuable compendium of the current state of the science, enhanced by having an index which had been lacking in previous IPCC reports. AR4 also permits access to the numerous critical comments submitted by expert reviewers, another first for the IPCC. While AR4 is an impressive document, it is far from being a reliable reference work on some of the most important aspects of climate change science and policy. It is marred by errors and misstatements, ignores scientific data that were available but were inconsistent with the authors’ pre-conceived conclusions, and has already been contradicted in important parts by research published since May 2006, the IPCC’s cut-off date. In general, the IPCC fails to consider important scientific issues, several of which would upset its major conclusion—that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations [emphasis in the original].” The IPCC defines “very likely” as at least 90 percent certain. They do not explain how they derive this number. The IPCC also does not define the word “most,” nor do they provide any explanation. The IPCC does not apply generally accepted methodologies to determine what fraction of current warming is natural, or how much is caused by the rise in greenhouse gases (GHG). A comparison of “fingerprints” from best available observations with the results of state-of-the-art GHG models leads to the conclusion that the (human-caused) GHG contribution is minor. This fingerprint evidence, though available, was ignored by the IPCC. The IPCC continues to undervalue the overwhelming evidence that, on decadal and centurylong time scales, the Sun and associated atmospheric
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cloud effects are responsible for much of past climate change. It is therefore highly likely that the Sun is also a major cause of twentieth-century warming, with anthropogenic GHG making only a minor contribution. In addition, the IPCC ignores, or addresses imperfectly, other science issues that call for discussion and explanation. These errors and omissions are documented in the present report by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). The report is divided into nine chapters that are briefly summarized here, and then more fully described in the remainder of this summary. Chapter 1 describes the limitations of the IPCC’s attempt to forecast future climate conditions by using computer climate models. The IPCC violates many of the rules and procedures required for scientific forecasting, making its “projections” of little use to policymakers. As sophisticated as today’s state-ofthe-art models are, they suffer deficiencies and shortcomings that could alter even the very sign (plus or minus, warming or cooling) of earth’s projected temperature response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. If the global climate models on which the IPCC relies are not validated or reliable, most of the rest of the AR4, while it makes for fascinating reading, is irrelevant to the public policy debate over what should be done to stop or slow the arrival of global warming. Chapter 2 describes feedback factors that reduce the earth’s temperature sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2. Scientific studies suggest the model-derived temperature sensitivity of the earth for a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 level is much lower than the IPCC’s estimate. Corrected feedbacks in the climate system reduce climate sensitivity to values that are an order of magnitude smaller than what the IPCC employs. Chapter 3 reviews empirical data on past temperatures. We find no support for the IPCC’s claim that climate observations during the twentieth century are either unprecedented or provide evidence of an anthropogenic effect on climate. We reveal the

Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! The IPCC blames high-temperature events for methodological errors of the “hockey stick” diagram increasing the number of cardiovascular-related of Mann et al., evidence for the existence of a global deaths, enhancing respiratory problems, and fueling a Medieval Warm Period, flaws in the surface-based more rapid and widespread distribution of deadly temperature record of more modern times, evidence infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue and from highly accurate satellite data that there has been yellow fever. However, a thorough examination of the no net warming over the past 29 years, and evidence peer-reviewed scientific literature reveals that further that the distribution of modern warming does not bear global warming would likely do just the opposite and the “fingerprint” of an anthropogenic effect. actually reduce the number of lives lost to extreme Chapter 4 reviews observational data on glacier thermal conditions. We also explain how CO2melting, sea ice area, variation in precipitation, and sea level rise. We find no evidence of trends that induced global warming would help feed a growing could be attributed to the supposedly anthropogenic global population without major encroachment on global warming of the twentieth century. natural ecosystems, and how increasing production of Chapter 5 summarizes the research of a growing biofuels (a strategy recommended by the IPCC) number of scientists who say variations in solar damages the environment and raises the price of food. activity, not greenhouse gases, are the true driver of The research summarized in this report is only a climate change. We describe the evidence of a solarsmall portion of what is available in the peerclimate link and how these scientists have grappled reviewed scientific literature. To assist readers who with the problem of finding a specific mechanism that want to explore information not contained between translates small changes in solar activity into larger the covers of this volume, we have included Internet climate effects. We summarize how they may have hyperlinks to the large and continuously updated found the answer in the relationships between the sun, databases maintained by the Center for the Study of cosmic rays and reflecting clouds. Carbon Dioxide and Global Change at Chapter 6 investigates and debunks the www.co2science.org. widespread fears that global warming might cause more extreme weather. The IPCC claims global warming will cause (or already is causing) more Key Findings by Chapter droughts, floods, hurricanes, storms, storm surges, heat waves, and wildfires. We find little or no support Chapter 1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations in the peer-reviewed literature for these predictions and considerable evidence to support an opposite ! The IPCC places great confidence in the ability of prediction: That weather would be less extreme in a general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate warmer world. future climate and attribute observed climate Chapter 7 examines the biological effects of change to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse rising CO2 concentrations and warmer temperatures. gases. This is the largely unreported side of the global ! The forecasts in the Fourth Assessment Report warming debate, perhaps because it is unequivocally were not the outcome of validated scientific good news. Rising CO2 levels increase plant growth procedures. In effect, they are the opinions of and make plants more resistant to drought and pests. scientists transformed by mathematics and It is a boon to the world’s forests and prairies, as well obscured by complex writing. The IPCC’s claim as to farmers and ranchers and the growing that it is making “projections” rather than populations of the developing world. “forecasts” is not a plausible defense. Chapter 8 examines the IPCC’s claim that CO2induced increases in air temperature will cause ! Today’s state-of-the-art climate models fail to unprecedented plant and animal extinctions, both on accurately simulate the physics of earth’s land and in the world’s oceans. We find there little radiative energy balance, resulting in real-world evidence in support of such claims and an uncertainties “as large as, or larger than, the abundance of counter evidence that suggests doubled CO2 forcing.” ecosystem biodiversity will increase in a warmer and CO2-enriched world. ! A long list of major model imperfections prevents Chapter 9 challenges the IPCC’s claim that CO2models from properly modeling cloud formation induced global warming is harmful to human health. and cloud-radiation interactions, resulting in large
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Executive!Summary! ! differences between model predictions and function as cloud condensation nuclei. Increased observations. cloudiness diffuses light, which stimulates plant growth and transfers more fixed carbon into plant ! Computer models have failed to simulate even the and soil storage reservoirs. correct sign of observed precipitation anomalies, such as the summer monsoon rainfall over the ! Since agriculture accounts for almost half of Indian region. Yet it is understood that nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in some countries, precipitation plays a major role in climate change. there is concern that enhanced plant growth due to CO2 enrichment might increase the amount and warming effect of this greenhouse gas. But field Chapter 2. Feedback Factors and Radiative research shows that N2O emissions fall as CO2 Forcing concentrations and temperatures rise, indicating ! Scientific research suggests the model-derived this is actually another negative climate feedback. temperature sensitivity of the earth accepted by ! Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas. An the IPCC is too large. Corrected feedbacks in the enhanced CO2 environment has been shown to climate system could reduce climate sensitivity to have “neither positive nor negative values that are an order of magnitude smaller. consequences” on atmospheric methane ! Scientists may have discovered a connection concentrations. Higher temperatures have been between cloud creation and sea surface shown to result in reduced methane release from temperature in the tropics that creates a peatbeds. Methane emissions from cattle have “thermostat-like control” that automatically vents been reduced considerably by altering diet, excess heat into space. If confirmed, this could immunization, and genetic selection. totally compensate for the warming influence of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions experienced to date, as well as all those that are anticipated to Chapter 3. Observations: Temperature Records occur in the future. ! The IPCC claims to find evidence in temperature ! The IPCC dramatically underestimates the total records that the warming of the twentieth century cooling effect of aerosols. Studies have found was “unprecedented” and more rapid than during their radiative effect is comparable to or larger any previous period in the past 1,300 years. But than the temperature forcing caused by all the the evidence it cites, including the “hockey-stick” increase in greenhouse gas concentrations representation of earth’s temperature record by recorded since pre-industrial times. Mann et al., has been discredited and contradicted by many independent scholars. ! Higher temperatures are known to increase emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) from the ! A corrected temperature record shows world’s oceans, which increases the albedo of temperatures around the world were warmer marine stratus clouds, which has a cooling effect. during the Medieval Warm Period of approximately 1,000 years ago than they are ! Iodocompounds—created by marine algae— today, and have averaged 2-3ºF warmer than function as cloud condensation nuclei, which help today’s temperatures over the past 10,000 years. create new clouds that reflect more incoming solar radiation back to space and thereby cool the ! Evidence of a global Medieval Warm Period is planet. extensive and irrefutable. Scientists working with a variety of independent methodologies have ! As the air’s CO2 content—and possibly its found it in proxy records from Africa, Antarctica, temperature—continues to rise, plants emit the Arctic, Asia, Europe, North America, and greater amounts of carbonyl sulfide gas, which South America. eventually makes it way into the stratosphere, where it is transformed into solar-radiation! The IPCC cites as evidence of modern global reflecting sulfate aerosol particles, which have a warming data from surface-based recording cooling effect. stations yielding a 1905-2005 temperature increase of 0.74ºC +/- 0.18ºC. But this ! As CO2 enrichment enhances biological growth, temperature record is known to be positively atmospheric levels of biosols rise, many of which
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Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! biased by insufficient corrections for the non! Sea ice area and extent have continued to increase greenhouse-gas-induced urban heat island (UHI) around Antarctica over the past few decades. effect. It may be impossible to make proper Evidence shows that much of the reported corrections for this deficiency, as the UHI of even thinning of Arctic sea ice that occurred in the small towns dwarfs any concomitant augmented 1990s was a natural consequence of changes in greenhouse effect that may be present. ice dynamics caused by an atmospheric regime shift, of which there have been several in decades ! Highly accurate satellite data, adjusted for orbit past and will likely be several in the decades to drift and other factors, show a much more modest come, totally irrespective of past or future warming trend in the last two decades of the changes in the air’s CO2 content. The Arctic twentieth century and a dramatic decline in the appears to have recovered from its 2007 decline. warming trend in the first decade of the twentyfirst century. ! Global studies of precipitation trends show no net increase and no consistent trend with CO2, ! The “fingerprint” or pattern of warming observed contradicting climate model predictions that in the twentieth century differs from the pattern warming should cause increased precipitation. predicted by global climate models designed to Research on Africa, the Arctic, Asia, Europe, and simulate CO2-induced global warming. Evidence North and South America all find no evidence of reported by the U.S. Climate Change Science a significant impact on precipitation that could be Program (CCSP) is unequivocal: All greenhouse attributed to anthropogenic global warming. models show an increasing warming trend with altitude in the tropics, peaking around 10 km at ! The cumulative discharge of the world’s rivers roughly twice the surface value. However, the remained statistically unchanged between 1951 temperature data from balloons give the opposite and 2000, a finding that contradicts computer result: no increasing warming, but rather a slight forecasts that a warmer world would cause large cooling with altitude. changes in global streamflow characteristics. Droughts and floods have been found to be less ! Temperature records in Greenland and other frequent and severe during the Current Warm Arctic areas reveal that temperatures reached a Period than during past periods when maximum around 1930 and have decreased in temperatures were even higher than they are recent decades. Longer-term studies depict today. oscillatory cooling since the Climatic Optimum of the mid-Holocene (~9000-5000 years BP), when ! The results of several research studies argue it was perhaps 2.5º C warmer than it is now. strongly against claims that CO2-induced global warming would cause catastrophic disintegration ! The average temperature history of Antarctica of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In fact, provides no evidence of twentieth century in the case of Antarctica, they suggest just the warming. While the Antarctic peninsula shows opposite—i.e., that CO2-induced global warming recent warming, several research teams have would tend to buffer the world against such an documented a cooling trend for the interior of the outcome. continent since the 1970s. ! The mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past. The determinants Chapter 4. Observations: Glaciers, Sea Ice, of sea level are poorly understood due to Precipitation, and Sea Level considerable uncertainty associated with a number of basic parameters that are related to the ! Glaciers around the world are continuously water balance of the world’s oceans and the advancing and retreating, with a general pattern meltwater contribution of Greenland and of retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age. Antarctica. Until these uncertainties are There is no evidence of a increased rate of satisfactorily resolved, we cannot be confident melting overall since CO2 levels rose above their that short-lived changes in global temperature pre-industrial levels, suggesting CO2 is not produce corresponding changes in sea level. responsible for glaciers melting.

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Executive!Summary! ! Chapter 5. Solar Variability and Climate Cycles rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in driving recent global warming. ! The IPCC claims the radiative forcing due to changes in the solar output since 1750 is +0.12 Wm-2, an order of magnitude smaller than its Chapter 6. Observations: Extreme Weather estimated net anthropogenic forcing of +1.66 ! The IPCC predicts that a warmer planet will lead Wm-2. A large body of research suggests that the to more extreme weather, characterized by more IPCC has got it backwards, that it is the sun’s frequent and severe episodes of drought, flooding, influence that is responsible for the lion’s share of cyclones, precipitation variability, storms, snow, climate change during the past century and storm surges, temperature variability, and beyond. wildfires. But has the last century – during which ! The total energy output of the sun changes by the IPCC claims the world experienced more only 0.1 percent during the course of the solar rapid warming than any time in the past two cycle, although larger changes may be possible millennia – experienced significant trends in any over periods of centuries. On the other hand, the of these extreme weather events? ultraviolet radiation from the sun can change by ! Droughts have not become more extreme or several percent over the solar cycle – as indeed erratic in response to global warming. Real-world noted by observing changes in stratospheric evidence from Africa, Asia, and other continents ozone. The largest changes, however, occur in the find no trend toward more frequent or more intensity of the solar wind and interplanetary severe droughts. In most cases, the worst magnetic field. droughts in recorded meteorological history were ! Reconstructions of ancient climates reveal a close much milder than droughts that occurred correlation between solar magnetic activity and periodically during much colder times. solar irradiance (or brightness), on the one hand, ! Floods were more frequent and more severe and temperatures on earth, on the other. Those during the Little Ice Age than they have been correlations are much closer than the relationship during the Current Warm Period. Flooding in between carbon dioxide and temperature. Asia, Europe, and North America has tended to ! Cosmic rays could provide the mechanism by be less frequent and less severe during the which changes in solar activity affect climate. twentieth century. During periods of greater solar magnetic activity, ! The IPCC says “it is likely that future tropical greater shielding of the earth occurs, resulting in cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become less cosmic rays penetrating to the lower more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and atmosphere, resulting in fewer cloud more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing condensation nuclei being produced, resulting in increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.” fewer and less reflective low-level clouds But despite the supposedly “unprecedented” occurring, which leads to more solar radiation warming of the twentieth century, there has been being absorbed by the surface of the earth, no increase in the intensity or frequency of resulting (finally) in increasing near-surface air tropical cyclones globally or in any of the specific temperatures and global warming. oceans. ! Strong correlations between solar variability and ! A number of real-world observations demonstrate precipitation, droughts, floods, and monsoons that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been documented in locations around the conditions during the latter part of the twentieth world. Once again, these correlations are much century were not unprecedented in terms of their stronger than any relationship between these frequency or magnitude. Long-term records weather phenomena and CO2. suggest that when the earth was significantly ! The role of solar activity in causing climate warmer than it is currently, ENSO events were change is so complex that most theories of solar substantially reduced or perhaps even absent. forcing must be considered to be as yet unproven. ! There is no support for the model-based But it would also be appropriate for climate projection that precipitation in a warming world scientists to admit the same about the role of becomes more variable and intense. In fact, some
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There appears to have been a including high soil salinity. provide support for the proposition that precipitation responds more to cyclical variations ! The amount of carbon plants gain per unit of in solar activity. decades of the twentieth century. the response is even greater. is not supported by air temperature rises. The productivity benefits of CO2 enrichment are also experienced by aquatic plants. In fact. greatly ! As the earth has warmed over the past 150 years. or even ! As the air’s CO2 content continues to rise. during which time the air’s CO2 concentration rose by 20 percent. ! Between 1950 and 2002. it is also enhanced by CO2-induced decreases in Chapter 7. C4. For woody plants. including freshwater algae and ! The ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content. for the globe as a whole there was no relationship between global ! The growth of plants is generally not only warming and total area burned over this period. enhancement produced by an increase in the air’s CO2 concentration is often even greater under ! Air temperature variability almost always stressful and resource-limited conditions than it is decreases when mean air temperature rises. Biological Effects of Carbon Dioxide respiration during the dark period. be it when growing conditions are ideal. and marine microalgae and observational data suggest just the opposite. CAM) of photosynthesis. during its recovery from the global chill of the increasing their ability to withstand drought. enhanced by CO2-induced increases in net photosynthesis during the light period of the day. plants between individual cooler and warmer years will likely exhibit enhanced rates of when different ENSO states are considered. Continued increases in the air’s CO2 concentration and temperature will not result in massive losses of carbon from earth’s peatlands. In Little Ice Age. these environmental 6 . the growth-promoting real-world data. effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment will likely also rise. the CO2-induced percentage increase in increase in either the frequency or intensity of plant biomass production is often greater under stormy weather. there has been no significant addition. oxidative stress. low light intensity and low levels of soil fertility. Elevated levels of CO2 have additionally been ! Storm surges have not increased in either demonstrated to reduce the severity of low frequency or magnitude as CO2 concentrations in temperature stress. The photosynthesis and biomass production that will claim that global warming will lead to more not be diminished by any global warming that extremes of climate and weather. and the stress the atmosphere have risen. water lost—or water-use efficiency—typically rises as the CO2 content of the air rises. if the ambient extremes of temperature itself. they have tended to decrease. and this positive response occurs in plants that utilize all three of the major biochemical pathways (C3. the percentage growth cases investigated. To the contrary. downward trend in blizzards. in cases of temperature change over tens of thousands of years or over mere decades. high air temperature. becoming more and more robust. will not materially alter the rate of decomposition of the world’s soil organic matter and will probably enhance biological carbon sequestration. water-stressed conditions than it is when plants are well watered.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! macrophytes. ! Although one can readily identify specific parts of the planet that have experienced both ! The ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content likely significant increases and decreases in land area will not favor the growth of weedy species over burned by wildfires over the last two to three that of crops and native plants. In the majority of of herbivory. North America. including more might occur concurrently. as well as any degree of warming that might possibly accompany it. there ! Atmospheric CO2 enrichment helps ameliorate the was no net change in either the mean onset date detrimental effects of several environmental or duration of snow cover for the continent of stresses on plant growth and development. Enhancement ! A 300-ppm increase in the air’s CO2 content typically raises the productivity of most herbaceous plants by about one-third. and macroalgae. In fact.

most plants enhances vegetative productivity) and its antiwill not need to migrate toward cooler conditions. and populations. and the introduction of alien species (e. which exhibited a modal value of 7 to 8 mm per year during the Holocene and can be more than double that value in certain branching corals. while the heat-limited emitted in copious quantities by vegetation and is boundaries of their ranges are often little affected. transpiration effect (which enhances plant wateras their physiology will change in ways that make use efficiency and enables plants to grow in areas them better adapted to warmer conditions. a prevented them from going in the past. Most wild species are at least one million years old. 150 years of rising world temperatures.” These claims are not supported by scientific research.g. Real-world observations indicate 7 ! . human agriculture. of the world’s species benefited nematodes. tropospheric ozone.. responsible for the production of vast amounts of allowing them to also expand their ranges. lamprey eels in the Great Lakes and pigs in Hawaii). growth and yield. The rising CO2 content of the atmosphere may induce very small changes in the well-buffered ocean chemistry (pH) that could slightly reduce coral calcification rates. limited boundaries will probably remain pretty much as they are now or shift only slightly. since global losses in biodiversity are irreversible (very high confidence). leading to a significant greening growing seasons and less frost. ! Elevated CO2 reduces. Plants that were once too dry for them) are stimulating will likely spread poleward in latitude and plant growth across the globe in places that upward in elevation at the cold-limited previously were too dry or otherwise unfavorable boundaries of their ranges. and industrialization. which means they have all been through hundreds of climate cycles involving temperature changes on par with or greater than those experienced in the twentieth century. and increased populations of earthworms and soil probably most. Species Extinction 15°C warmer than at present. It also upward.to 59-cm warming-induced sea-level rise that is predicted for the coming century by the IPCC falls well within the range (2 to 6 mm per year) of typical coral vertical extension rates. ! ! The 18. while their heatof the Earth. thanks to longer for plant growth. ! The aerial fertilization effect of the ongoing rise ! As long as the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration in the air’s CO2 concentration (which greatly rises in tandem with its temperature. to areas where cold temperatures reduces atmospheric concentrations of isoprene. None of these causes are connected with either global temperatures or atmospheric CO2 concentrations. from rising temperatures in the twentieth century.Executive!Summary! ! changes—if they persist—would likely work ! Real-world data collected by the United Nations together to enhance carbon capture. relevance. The four known causes of extinctions are huge asteroids striking the planet. They highly reactive non-methane hydrocarbon that is follow earth’s plants. human hunting. but potential positive effects of hydrospheric CO2 enrichment may more than compensate for this modest negative phenomenon. ! The world’s species have proven to be remarkably resilient to climate change. the negative effects of ozone pollution ! Land animals also tend to migrate poleward and on plant photosynthesis. and nearly always overrides. Rising sea levels should therefore present no difficulties for coral reefs. Many. ! The persistence of coral reefs through geologic time—when temperatures were as much as 10°Chapter 8. and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were two to seven times ! The IPCC claims “new evidence suggests that higher than they are currently—provides climate-driven extinctions and range retractions substantive evidence that these marine entities are already widespread” and the “projected can successfully adapt to a dramatically changing impacts on biodiversity are significant and of key global environment. Environmental Program (UNEP) show the rate of extinctions at the end of the twentieth century was ! Other biological effects of CO2 enhancement the lowest since the sixteenth century—despite include enhanced plant nitrogen-use efficiency. growing longer residence time of carbon in the soil.

Total heat-related mortality rates have been shown to be lower in warmer climates and to be unaffected by rising temperatures during the twentieth century. Mortality due to respiratory diseases decrease as temperatures rise and as temperature variability declines.. its continued upward trend will likely provide more of the same benefit. and exceed those that occurred during the twentieth 51 percent for vegetables. There can be little doubt that ethanol mandates and subsidies have made both food and energy more. century or are forecast by the IPCC’s computer models. is to increase CO2 emissions for decades or centuries relative to the emissions caused by fossil fuel use. 62 percent for Polar bears have survived changes in climate that legumes. 33 percent for fruits and melons. 28 percent for cereals. which historically has taken a large toll ! There is evidence that some medicinal substances on polar bear populations. not antioxidant (vitamin) contents. and other feedstocks. and forecasting. and certainly in greater absolute Forecasts of dwindling polar bear populations amounts. and methanol) are being used in growing quantities in the belief that they provide environmental benefits. rely on unvalidated computer ! The historical increase of the air’s CO2 content climate models that are known to be unreliable. Human Health Effects ! The IPCC alleges that “climate change currently contributes to the global burden of disease and premature deaths” and will “increase malnutrition and consequent disorders. than they are currently. leading to higher food prices. populations is not temperature but hunting by humans.” Biofuels compete with livestock growers and food processors for corn. 67 percent for root and tuber crops. in terms of its protein and Most populations of polar bears are growing. are a high price to pay for refusing to understand and utilize the true science of climate change. has probably helped lengthen human lifespans and violate most of the principles of scientific since the advent of the Industrial Revolution. The production of biofuels also consumes enormous quantities of water compared with the production of gasoline. In fact. “the net effect of biofuels production . those benefits are very dubious.! ! ! Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! that elevated CO2 and elevated temperatures are yields during the past 150 years on the order of 70 having a positive effect on most corals.” In fact. not less. ! The quality of plant food in the CO2-enriched world of the future. Biofuels for transportation (chiefly ethanol.. will be no lower shrinking. The historical increase in the air’s CO2 content has improved human nutrition by raising crop ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 8 . expensive and therefore less available to a growing population. the overwhelming weight of evidence shows that higher temperatures and rising CO2 levels have played an indispensible role in making it possible to feed a growing global population without encroaching on natural ecosystems. soybeans. Chapter 9. increasing crop yield per unit of nutrients applied. biodiesel. By some measures. and increasing crop yield per unit of water used. and the biggest influence on polar bear and probably will be higher than in the past. Rising food prices in 2008 led to food riots in several developing countries. Claims that malaria and tick-borne diseases are spreading or will spread across the globe as a result of CO2-induced warming are not supported in the scientific literature. and the much greater destruction yet to come. percent for wheat. in plants will be present in significantly greater concentrations. The extensive damage to natural ecosystems already caused by this poor policy decision. assume trends in sea ice and temperature that are counterfactual. ! Higher levels of CO2 in the air help to advance all three parts of a strategy to resolve the tension between the need to feed a growing population and the desire to preserve natural ecosystems: increasing crop yield per unit of land area. Global warming reduces the incidence of cardiovascular disease related to low temperatures and wintry weather by a much greater degree than it increases the incidence of cardiovascular disease associated with high temperatures and summer heat waves.

Models and Forecasting 1.4. It says “climate models are based on well-established physical principles and have been demonstrated to reproduce observed features of recent climate … and past climate changes … There is considerable confidence that Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations 1. Averyt. scientists try to forecast the effect of rising GHG by looking backwards at climate history to see how the climate responded to previous “forcings” of a similar kind. M. Qin. Solomon. and precipitation. Marquis. S. As a result. currently . A review of the scientific 9 literature reveals numerous deficiencies and shortcomings in today’s state-of-the-art models. clouds. Z. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M. and an extensive body of research that has been compiled into a set of scientific procedures. Precipitation Introduction Because the earth-ocean-atmosphere system is so vast and complex. In this chapter. and they must do so correctly. Clouds 1. References IPCC. founded in 1981). chemical. and biological processes that influence climate in the real world. professor.2 Radiation 1. Models and Forecasting J. Miller. Cambridge. with its own institute (International Institute of Forecasters. M. p. GCMs must incorporate all of the many physical. Scott Armstrong. has pointed out that forecasting is a practice and discipline in its own right.1. 591). (Eds. To be of any validity. The Wharton School. 1.) Cambridge University Press. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) places great confidence in the ability of general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate future climate and attribute observed climate change to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. D. Chen. Tignor and H. particularly at continental and larger scales” (IPCC.L. 2007-I. 2007-I.1. Manning. UK. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. K.B. University of Pennsylvania and a leading figure in the discipline of professional forecasting. some of which deficiencies could even alter the sign of projected climate change. peer-reviewed journal (International Journal of Forecasting). it is impossible to conduct a small-scale experiment that reveals how the world’s climate will change as the air’s greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue to rise.! 1 ! Global Climate Models and Their Limitations ! 1. or by creating computer models that define a “virtual” earth-ocean-atmosphere system and run scenarios or “story lines” based on assumptions about future events. we first ask if computer models are capable in principle of producing reliable forecasts and then examine three areas of model inadequacies: radiation..3.

2001). he had accumulated more than criticized for failing to notice that their models fail to 82. policy objectives and who believe that anthropogenic Kluwer Academic Publishers. Ascher.’ He asked statement of how the modeler believes a part of the them to forecast the probability that various situations world works—with real-world trends and forecasts would or would not occur. professor of physics at the no references … to the primary sources of Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton information on forecasting methods” and “the University. Cerf and Canadian science writer Lawrence Solomon Navasky. 1998. Zbigniew Jaworowski. Armstrong and Kesten C. Philip E. a worldprocess. when physicists. McKitrick (2007). forecasts has been confirmed in scores of empirical Posmentier and Soon (2005). Essex and against simple rules” (Green and Armstrong. and they have been severely expertise. who “recruited 288 people complexity and uncertainty are apt to confuse the whose professions included ‘commenting or offering output of models—which are nothing more than a advice on political and economic trends. their opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics forecasts are no more reliable than those made by and obscured by complex writing. forecasts by scientists. Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis (2007). are not scientific forecasts of global warming. Tetlock (2005). Their answers the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Green and showed a high level of skepticism: Armstrong..Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! statistics at the Organization for Economic numbering 140. “this principle refers to keeping the chair of the United Nations Scientific Committee forecasting process separate from the planning on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. picking areas (geographic (Bryson. not useful in situations involving uncertainty and 2001). Freeman Dyson. even complexity. they were the predictions based on their training and expertise.N. Frauenfeld (2005). Christy (2005). studies (Armstrong. 2005. In effect. and other scientists who do not know the The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome rules of forecasting attempt to make climate of scientific procedures. 1978) and illustrated in (2008) interviewed many of the world’s leading historical examples of incorrect forecasts made by scientists active in scientific fields relevant to climate leading experts (Cerf and Navasky. and Spencer (2008). In other words. The authors’ search of the contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC “found ! Prof. critical. one of the world’s most eminent forecasting procedures that were described [in physicists. Computer climate modelers certainly and substantive) within and outside their areas of fall into this trap. Scott Armstrong.” They conclude: According to Armstrong. said the U. change and asked them for their views on the In 2007. said the models used to justify global sufficient detail to be evaluated] violated 72 warming alarmism are “full of fudge factors” and principles. We have been unable to identify any large numbers of very distinguished scientists.” Citing David Henderson for climate research. Claims that necessarily scientific forecasts. 2002. 1993).” themselves.3 Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Make sure forecasts are independent of politics. a former head of economics and global-warming hypothesis on arbitrary 10 . by J. Green of reliability of the computer models used by the IPCC Monash University conducted a “forecasting audit” of to detect and forecast global warming. that must be used to make reliable Cooperation and Development (OECD). Michaels The failure of expert opinion to lead to reliable (2000. biologists. “based its (Henderson. 2007). The term ‘politics’ is used in the broad sense renowned expert on the use of ancient ice cores of the exercise of power. Craig et al.” The Radiological Protection in Warsaw and former two authors write. Armstrong and a colleague cite research by than saying that it will get colder. Many of the violations were. 2007). a psychologist and professor of organizational behavior at the University of Scientists working in fields characterized by California. chairman of the Armstrong say the IPCC violated is “Principle 1. By 2003. 2006. 2007).” One principle of scientific forecasting Green and ! Dr. even when they are communicated forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are through complex computer models (Armstrong. global warming is real and danger. 1998). 2009). by “do not begin to describe the real world. In support of his the Earth will get warmer have no more credence position. The experts barely if at all replicate real-world phenomena by many scientists. Research on nonexperts. outperformed non-experts and neither group did well including Balling (2005). they say “the forecasts (Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for IPCC process is directed by non-scientists who have Researchers and Practitioners. Berkeley.000 forecasts.

2001. Armstrong. Jones of chapter 3 of the Working Group I clear. principal researcher at the derivatives occurred 90 times in the body of Chapter Institute for Environmental Studies at Vrije 8” of the Working Group I report. and indeed points to how unreliable the models are.” decision makers” (Trenberth. the chemistry. International Journal of Forecasting 22: 583-598. as the IPCC points out in the passage quoted at the beginning of this chapter. He argued that at M. Norwell. and ‘predict’ and its ! Dr.” here. Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error. elsewhere. 2006. and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans.co2science. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics. and the biology of fields and farms and forests. Observational surface temperature records versus model predictions. said “there exists no sound theoretical framework The distinction is important. (Ed. Antonino Zichichi. 2007). former forecasts are unscientific and therefore likely to be president of the European Physical Society.S. said Additional information on this topic. Baltimore. Lanham. it is now D. Richard Tol. and a survey of Universiteit and adjunct professor at the Center climate scientists conducted by those same authors for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of found “most of our respondents (29 of whom were Global Change at Carnegie Mellon University. “I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do.php under the heading Models Princeton’s Freeman Dyson has written of Climate. MA. Hendrik Tennekes.I. As Green and warming forecasts. 2005.” ‘scenarios’ or ‘projections’) of global average ! temperature. R. “the word ‘forecast’ and its derivatives occurred 37 times. director of research at the projections given by the Intergovernmental Panel the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. the dust. Principles of Forecasting – A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Johns Hopkins University Press. said the IPCC is “trumpeting correspond to certain emissions scenarios. Individual climate models often have widely differing assumptions about basic climate mechanisms but are then “tweaked” to produce similar forecasts.Global!Climate!Models!and!Their!Limitations! ! Kevin Trenberth.) Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming.” contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report.C. J.” We agree. are false. 2007). W. one of the world’s foremost physicists. Rowman & Littlefield. Balling. Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy Makers and Planners. 1978. MD. including global warming models are “incoherent and reviews of climate model inadequacies not discussed invalid. and wrong. and member of the National Research “the IPCC does not make forecasts” but “instead Council Board on Atmospheric Sciences and proffers ‘what if’ projections of future climate that Climate. He says “there are no such predictions [in the IPCC reports] although ! Prof.” They conclude that “the IPCC does ! Dr. can be found at http://www..” for climate predictability studies” used for global This defense is hardly satisfactory. Armstrong point out. References Armstrong. MD. This is nothing like how real scientific forecasting is done. Many of the scientists cited above observe that computer models can be “tweaked” to reconstruct climate histories after the fact. and add that those physics at the University of Bologna.” and then catastrophes that couldn’t happen even if the hopes these “projections” will “guide policy and models were right. But this provides no assurance that the new model will do a better job forecasting future climates. replied to some of these scathing criticisms on the ! Dr. on Climate Change (IPCC) are often treated as such. a professor of meteorology blog of the science journal Nature.. a lead author along with Philip assumptions and these assumptions. emeritus professor of provide forecasts. Ascher.T. Kluwer Academic Publishers. P.S. 11 . J. IPCC authors or reviewers) nominated the IPCC said the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report is report as the most credible source of forecasts (not “preposterous . alarmist and incompetent.org/ subject/m/subject_m. In Michaels. 50-71. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in” (Dyson. Richard Lindzen.J.

Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science. and how these properties may change under climate forcing.nature. and McKitrick.html. P. E. Richard Vigilante Books. O2 and O2 . our ability to describe the system sufficiently well in even the largest computer models is a problem. 2007. NY. The Troubled Science. Policy and Politics of Global Warming. and Armstrong. 2007. Toronto. Rowman & Littlefield. 1993. MD.G. 2007. 2008.. http://blogs. 241-281. Solomon. 2005. O. Baltimore. Cato Institute. 2009. In Michaels. Craig. Politicians and the Media. Princeton. Canada. Rowman & Littlefield. D.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Bryson. K.) Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. Johns Hopkins University Press. Essex. Tetlock.H. or larger than. R. Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists. and Navasky. Nature blog. L.S. Christy. DC. (Ed.” Harries says “we must exercise great caution over the true depth of our understanding. Global warming and forecasts of climate change. P. noting that “we could easily have uncertainties of many tens of Wm-2 in our description of the radiative effect of such clouds.C.J. P. Lanham. Michaels. Radiation One problem facing GCMs is how to accurately simulate the physics of earth’s radiative energy balance. 18: 997–1021. 2007. New York.J. (Ed. 2008. Minneapolis. 2005. MD. and Koomey. Climate of Extremes: Global Warming Science They Don't Want You to Know. C. to quote Harries. who characterized the spectral.E. NJ. The Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria. 2005. MD. R. F.) Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. and. Zender revealed that these molecular collisions lead 12 . Lanham. L. and Fraud**And those who are too fearful to do so. and Pilkey-Jarvis.J. August. 2005.” A related problem is illustrated by the work of Zender (1999). regional and seasonal atmospheric heating caused by the oxygen collision pairs O2 . Gadgil. A. Political Persecution. Edge: The Third Culture.com/ climatefeedback/2007/07/global_warming_and_forecasts_o . “uncertainties as large as. V. J. Cato Institute.E. Washington. Cerf. Michaels. New York. environmentalists. Columbia University Press. Global warming: forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts. W. on-going research is fascinating. MN. Rowman & Littlefield. Harries (2000) says “progress is excellent. 2009. Heretical thoughts about science and society. Green. N2. O.) Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. Washington. Posmentier. Governments and climate change issues: The case for rethinking. R. and Soon.A. Spencer. Cato Institute. Encounter Books. World Economics 8: 183228. Environment.2. 72-105. New Literary History: 24: 783-795. Temperature changes in the bulk atmosphere: beyond the IPCC. and our ability to forecast future climate trends. 149-182. which had earlier been discovered to absorb a small but significant fraction of the globally incident solar radiation. C. P. In Michaels. Useless Arithmetic. Frauenfeld. P. and global change: A skeptic’s evaluation. Lanham. vertical. K.” As an example. 2005. 2000. P. P. Dyson. water vapor demers (a double molecule of H2O) shows strong absorption bands in the near-infrared of the solar spectrum. 1998.J. Limitations of computer predictions of the effects of carbon dioxide on global temperature. Pilkey. Henderson.” This state of affairs is disconcerting in light of the fact that the radiative effect of a doubling of the air’s CO2 content is in the lower single-digit range of Wm-2. What can history teach us? A retrospective examination of long-term energy forecasts for the United States.W. 2007.P. 2002.J. MD. Michaels. J.S. J. Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor. Washington.J. Taken by Storm. DC. 1. Satanic Gases: Clearing the Air About Global Warming. Key Porter Books.. but we have still a great deal to understand about the physics of climate. The Experts Speak. In Michaels. Of this task. Harries says “even if [our] understanding were perfect. Predictive skill of the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation and related atmospheric teleconnections. Trenberth. P. In addition. (Ed. Last accessed May 6. due to uncertainties in the feedback processes. DC.” Because of the vast complexity of the subject. Energy Environ. 2002. he states that our knowledge of high cirrus clouds is very poor. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 27: 83-118. the doubled CO2 forcing could easily exist in our modeling of future climate trends. Expert Political Judgment—How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton University Press.

” so that properly account for spatial and temporal variations in “estimates of the total global mean present-day atmospheric aerosol concentrations. the gas-induced global warming. There appears to be a double standard Zender’s words. there are a number of stretching from a small cooling to a modest warming. O2.8 Wm-2. forces in motion that produce the bulk of the ultimate globally and annually averaged. In another revealing study. O3.3 to seasonal model underestimation biases were as high 1. Wild (1999) compared Ghan et al.” of-the-atmosphere locations to assess the true amount Pursuit of this goal. “alters the long-standing view that within the climate modeling community that may best H2O. most of the result. they simulate climate and climate change. (2001) warn that “present-day the observed amount of solar radiation absorbed in radiative forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases the atmosphere over equatorial Africa with what was is estimated to be 2. who the major cause of the predicted temperature increase report that “mineral aerosols have complex. while at the same time bottom line.” In fact. the direct forcing predicted by three GCMs and found the model predictions were much too small. Although the “total global mean present-day anthropogenic the absolute solar flux variations associated with these forcing. In addition. Ghan et al. while the indirect forcing by anthropogenic -2 as 30 Wm . they conclude. “multiplier effects” that may significantly amplify They also provided a long list of other things that their impacts. between a modest warming and a slight cooling. closure experiments designed to evaluate that Another solar-related deficiency of GCMs is their understanding. etc. This discovery.and millennial-scale cycles (see that considerably reduce the range of uncertainty in Section 4. Wild anthropogenic forcing range from 3 Wm-2 to found the models likely underestimated the amount of -1 Wm-2. he suggests that the phenomenon “should therefore be When multiplier effects suit their purposes. regional and by anthropogenic aerosols is estimated to be -0. (2003).” which implies a climate change somewhere solar radiation absorbed by water vapor and clouds. in their words.5 Wm-2.5 Wm-2. achieving “profound reductions in the uncertainties of These results were compared with estimates of solar direct and indirect forcing by anthropogenic radiation absorption derived from four GCMs and. came up with some numbers cycle to century. which consisted of “a generally too transparent for solar radiation. say..” Consequently.” At the conclusion of this laborious set of range of timescales extending from the 11-year solar operations. in warming. large-scale atmospheric models used to them. forcing. it was shown that “GCM atmospheres are analysis of the situation.” but that still implied a set of climate changes phenomena are rather small.1 to 2. Solar Influence on Climate).11. They Similar large model underestimations were conclude that “the great uncertainty in the radiative discovered by Wild and Ohmura (1999). they use included in . (1999). but when they don’t suit their purposes.. “one are inadequately represented in the global climate could easily add the usual list of uncertainties in the models used by the IPCC to predict future greenhouse representation of clouds.” which is what they set out to do in their again. and integrated models that treat all of failure to properly account for solar-driven variations the necessary processes together and estimate the in earth-atmosphere processes that operate over a forcing. who forcing must be reduced if the observed climate analyzed a comprehensive observational dataset record is to be reconciled with model predictions and consisting of solar radiation fluxes measured at 720 if estimates of future climate change are to be useful sites across the earth’s surface and corresponding topin formulating emission policies. must be done in order to obtain a more definitive According to Chambers et al. where CO2 is not Also studying the aerosol-induced radiative forcing of climate were Vogelmann et al. Indeed.” CO2-induced warming of the future. after which they acknowledged that even this many nonlinear responses to solar activity variability list “is hardly complete.” and handedly with different aspects of climate change. highly but rather an initial perturber of the climate system 13 .” don’t use them. requires of solar radiation absorbed within the atmosphere. is that “much remains to other amplifier effects are used to model past be done before the estimates are reliable enough to glacial/interglacial cycles and even the hypothesized base energy policy decisions upon. CO2 and NO2 are the only significant be described as an inherent reluctance to deal evengaseous solar absorbers in earth’s atmosphere.” as they combination of process studies designed to improve produce a rather substantial mean error close to 20 understanding of the key processes involved in the percent below actual observations. Ghan et al.Global!Climate!Models!and!Their!Limitations! ! -2 that according to the IPCC sets other more powerful to the absorption of about 1 Wm of solar radiation. primarily because the models failed to aerosols is estimated to be 0 to -1. aerosols.

for equal loadings. 2002) revealed what Hartmann in the tropics so that prediction of tropical climate on (2002) called a pair of “tropical surprises.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! produced by what Chen et al. what other major forcings are reproduce even the cyclical seasonal change in they ignoring? tropical albedo.” How did this occur? stabilizing feedback(s) that help(s) maintain this The change in solar radiation reception was threshold is essential in order to understand how the driven by reductions in cloud cover.” Hence. of these facts. they meridional overturning circulation of the upper determined.. No significant decadal variability was of this magnitude is not included in current state-ofexhibited by any of the models. Wielicki et al. 1998). “identifying the during this time. which allowed tropical climate reacts to an external perturbation.” Expanding on atmosphere increased by about 4 Wm-2 between the this assessment.” Because tropical Pacific Ocean (McPhaden and Zhang. Wm-2 change in the globally averaged surface IR Wielicki et al.g.” They say “only a hand was likely provided by the past quarterfew large-scale climate models currently consider century’s slowdown in the meridional overturning aerosol IR effects (e.” Hartmann was considerably more candid both groups of researchers that the amount of thermal in his scoring of the test.. the measured thermal radiative energy represented in climate models. in their words. assimilation model to reproduce the observed decadal the researchers concluded that their results “highlight changes in top-of-the-atmosphere thermal and solar the importance of aerosol IR forcing which should be radiative energy fluxes that occurred over the past included in climate model simulations. 2002). sea surface warming by reducing the rate-of-supply of used high-resolution spectra to calculate the surface relatively colder water to the region of equatorial IR radiative forcing created by aerosols encountered upwelling. In Ship Ronald H. Jacobson. Tegen et al. he noted that “if the energy budget 1980s and the 1990s. Bellon et al. same magnitude as the thermal radiative energy gain (2003) note that “observed tropical sea-surface that is generally predicted to result from an temperatures (SSTs) exhibit a maximum around instantaneous doubling of the air’s CO2 content. highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling 2002. The second was that the amount can vary substantially in the absence of obvious of reflected sunlight decreased by 1 to 2 Wm-2 over forcing. and in an attempt to persuade climate which circulation slowdown also promotes tropical modelers to rectify the situation.” and that “this maximum appears to be robust as Hartmann notes. yet fully understood and cannot yet be accurately In addition. and they all failed to the-art climate models. The administrators of the test kindly Two papers published one year earlier and concluded that “the missing variability in the models appearing in the same issue of Science (Chen et al.” as it did over the past two decades. the time-varying Characterization Experiment-Asia. 1996.” more solar radiation to reach the surface of the earth’s which knowledge is needed for understanding how tropical region and warm it.” Another helping25 Wm-2 (Sokolik et al. they say.” which values recent observed decadal changes in the Pacific. from intraseasonal to average tropical surface temperature were observed millennial. Brown during the Aerosol the words of McPhaden and Zhang. saying flatly that the results radiation emitted to space at the top of the tropical indicated “the models are deficient.” loss at the top of the tropical atmosphere was of the Also concentrating on the tropics. In doing so. “then the the same period. Vogelmann et al. with the net result that more total climate of earth has modes of variability that are not radiant energy exited the tropics in the latter decade... determined to be “a varied optical properties that. circulation of the upper 100 to 400 meters of the 2001) despite their potentially large forcing. Yet 30°C.” If a forcing two decades. in the outflow of air from northeastern Asia.” The first interannual and decadal time scales can be of the seminal discoveries was the common finding of improved. These changes were 14 .” they say “are comparable to or larger than the 1 to 2 In an eye-opening application of this principle. can decadal-time-scale strengthening of the tropical cause differences in the surface IR flux between 7 and Hadley and Walker circulations. that “daytime surface IR Pacific Ocean provides “an important dynamical forcings are often a few Wm-2 and can reach almost constraint for model studies that attempt to simulate 10 Wm-2 for large aerosol loadings. “only very small changes in on various timescales. (2002) tested the ability of four stateforcing caused by greenhouse gas increases since preof-the-art climate models and one weather industrial times.” In a massive understatement of fact.. based on These observations provide several new measurements made by the Marine-Atmospheric phenomena for the models to replicate as a test of Emitted Radiance Interferometer aboard the NOAA their ability to properly represent the real world.

.I. M. R.Y. inadequacies in the ways the earth’s radiative energy 15 .” Also. as well as numerous other those produced by solar variability and the ongoing telling inadequacies stemming from the non-treatment rise in the air’s CO2 content. radiator fins. and Hou. they note that Pierrehumbert’s work demonstrates that interactions soundly supported by the current state of the climate between moist and dry regions are an essential part of modeling enterprise. Y. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 1551-1568. 2001. system. Saylor. B. “that the tropical climate is not determined anthropogenic CO2 emissions are beyond what can be locally. Journal of the Atmospheric In conclusion.php.. M. consequently. including “adaptive infrared iris” concept of Lindzen et al. Science 295: 838-841..M. the nature of the underlying feedbacks that help Palaeoenvironmental evidence for solar forcing of Holocene climate: linkages to solar science. “suggests Evidence for strengthening of the tropical general the presence of an important and as-yet-unexplored circulation in the 1990s. there are a number of major Sciences 52: 1784-1806. Carlson. 2002.D. Does the the maximum “allowable” SSTs of tropical regions. where it can be radiated to space by multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols. D. Chou. J.G. Leung. and Ghil. Journal important effect on the sensitivity of the tropical of Geophysical Research 106: 5279-5293. Tropical surprises.co2science. can be found at http://www.1029/2003GL017895. as they describe it. M.” which injects more heat into the Hartmann. Abdul-Razzak.” H. J. Progress in define the global climate system that is responsible Physical Geography 23: 181-204.E. D. which is reported in Section 1.J.. L.J.S.-D. This contention is further of pertinent phenomena that are nowhere to be found substantiated by the study of Pierrehumbert (1995). J. Geophysical Research Letters 30: perturbation. Laulainen. A physically based estimate of surface wind on the large-scale circulation has an radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. Chapman. 2001.” In addition. Le Treut. export more energy to the subtropical free Jacobson. water vapor. G. Bellon et al. This literature review makes clear that the case is not closed on either the source or the significance of Lindzen. Chen.S.D. Nature 415: 603-608. and Zhang.org/ Noting that previous box models of tropical subject/m/inadeqradiation. Easter.. Bellon et al. R. E. that could Ghan.C. in stark Ocean. analyzed various feedbacks associated References with this sensitivity in a four-box model of the Bellon.. 1999.J. Contemporary Physics 41: 309-322.Global!Climate!Models!and!Their!Limitations! ! balance is treated in contemporary general circulation the global climate reacts to perturbations such as models of the atmosphere... Science 295: 811atmosphere and allows the atmospheric circulation to 812. feedback in earth’s tropical climate. 2002. Ogle. 2001. earth have an adaptive infrared iris? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 417-432.. S. IPCC-inspired predictions of which “clearly demonstrates. R.R.” specifically stating that “this dependence Harries. is the case closed on the degree to which the planet may warm in response to McPhaden. N. M. reviews of newer publications as they become (2001). climate have shown it to be rather sensitive to the relative areas of moist and dry regions of the tropics. A. M. They say the demonstrated “dependence of the and Zaveri. Zhang. available. and promoted by the IPCC. Thermostats. they investigated the 10. R. A. 2003. but globally. 1995..E. Slowdown of the continued increases in the atmospheric concentrations meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. perturbations by enhancing the evaporation feedback. Global direct radiative forcing due to troposphere.’s work. Large-scale tropical climate “to show how they modulate the and evaporation-wind feedbacks in a box model of the response of the tropical temperature to a radiative tropical climate.. H.T. Neither. which points to the Additional information on this topic.” in the words of Bellon catastrophic climatic changes due to continued et al.2.A. F. tropical climate stability. and Blackford.L. Physics of the earth’s radiative energy reduces significantly the SST sensitivity to radiative balance. for the tropical climate observations of constrained maximum sea surface temperatures (SSTs). contrast to what is suggested by the climate models Pierrehumbert. and Del Genio. the local runaway greenhouse. 2002. influence of the model’s surface-wind parameterization in an attempt to shed further light on Chambers. contribute to maintain the ‘lid’ on tropical SSTs.Z. 2000. R.. in the models.

Moving into the twenty-first century. amounting to approximately 5 to 10 percent of Vogelmann.1029/2002GL016829. P.A. The model results did not Letters 30: 10. Science 295: 841the degree to which computer models failed to 844. Susskind. F. who determined that many GCMs of the late 1990s tended to under-predict the presence of subtropical marine stratocumulus clouds and failed to 1. effective way. previously cited in Section 1. 1996. and surface processes within a very limited scope.. of such clouds. converge. This effort revealed that cloud aerosols at infrared wavelengths. Tegen. cloud microphysical processes in determining tropical Randall. Robertson. 1998.M. correctly incorporate cloud microphysics. and Bergstrom.S. I.J.471-24.. increments of four and comparing the results to Modeling the radiative characteristics of airborne mineral observed values. Lindzen et Lane et al. The role of clouds and the include realistic elements of cloud physics and they cloud-free atmosphere in the problem of underestimated represent interactions among cloud physics.A. Soden. Clouds simulate the seasonal cycle of clouds.J. while incoming solar radiation K.371. and Jacobowitz. Miller.. and Ohmura.-K.J.. 2000). Wong. and Minnett. 1999. These Wild. as occurred in the has to do with model resolution on vertical and normal application of their model. B. which corresponded to about 20 percent of the observed cloud cover fraction. led to sea surface horizontal space scales.. yet to achieve. (2001) analyzed cloud cover and sea surface the cloud-radiation parameterizations utilized in temperature (SST) data over a large portion of the contemporary GCMs to changes in vertical model Pacific Ocean. C.. Nature 380: 419-422. Flatau. J. In an analysis of the multiple roles played by J. R. and how these properties may change and subsequent studies suggest they still are not under climate forcing. processes.484. et al. I. Szczodrak.T. (2000) evaluated the sensitivities of al. A. Grabowski (2000) found much the same H.. he says. One reason for their lack of success the removal of the low clouds.W. In the atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have situation investigated by Gordon and his colleagues. radiative absorption of solar radiation in GCM atmospheres.T.A. A. Geophysical Research range of resolutions tested. Yang.N. varying the latter from 16 to 60 layers in 16 . Journal of Reaching rather similar conclusions were Gordon Geophysical Research 104: 24. observed values.3. and Fung.J. Lacis. These deficiencies are extremely important because these Correctly parameterizing the influence of clouds on particular clouds exert a major cooling influence on climate is an elusive goal that the creators of the surface temperatures of the sea below them. finding a strong inverse relationship resolution. Global climatology of abundance and be treated as qualitative rather than quantitative.P.. Slingo. C. M. 2002. Journal of Geophysical used to address this fundamental question in an Research 104: 27.M. A. This is (2000). outgoing longwave radiation varied by 10 climate forcing of mineral aerosols from disturbed soils.. Evidence for large decadal variability in the thing. “model results must Zender. The influence on Similarly. range of resolutions tested. Allan.” solar absorption of oxygen collision complexes. to 20 Wm-2 as model vertical resolution was varied. 1999. A.. Markowicz..361-27. B. I.. Discrepancies between model-calculated observations led him to conclude that “it is unlikely and observed shortwave atmospheric absorption in areas that traditional convection parameterizations can be with high aerosol loadings. climate. O. Wielicki... noting there were serious problems related to tropical mean radiative energy budget.1. Several and that “we could easily have uncertainties of many studies suggest that older model parameterizations did tens of Wm-2 in our description of the radiative effect not succeed in this regard (Groisman et al. A.B.5°C. M.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Sokolik. who wrote particularly true of physical processes such as cloud that our knowledge of high cirrus clouds is very poor formation and cloud-radiation interactions. Lack of adequate resolution temperature increases on the order of 5. M. even at a resolution of 60 layers. Kiehl.. Observations of large aerosol experienced similar significant variations across the infrared forcing at the surface. P. R.. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 24B: 261-268.” Consequently. Gordon. (2000). Journal of Geophysical fraction varied by approximately 10 percent over the Research 103: 8813-8826. S. D.” He also became convinced that “classical convection parameterizations do not Wild. forces modelers to parameterize the ensemble largeFurther condemnation of turn-of-the-century scale effects of processes that occur on smaller scales model treatments of clouds came from Harries than their models are capable of handling. Toon. T. 2003. 1999.” succeeding..

“major links in the feedback chain proposed by though hardly by as much as that suggested by [Fu et Charlson et al. the indeed have overestimated the iris effect somewhat. including connected to deep convection near the equator. as the researchers warming is “over” when some of the meteorological described it. albedos “appears to be inappropriate for studying the Acknowledging that the roles played by DMS iris effect. such in the two opposing views of the subject. they obtained a feedback factor in the range of albedo of marine stratus clouds.” 17 .’s much these clouds is a function of cloud droplet larger negative feedback factor of -0. low boundary clouds are are indeed “diverse and complex” and in many optically thick. According to their findings. compared to Lindzen et al.]. also claiming to show that water vapor and low cloud (See Section 2.] has the data collected at Cape Grim. It is amazing that some by about 22 percent for each degree C increase in political leaders proclaim the debate over global cloudy region SST.. and governments. arguing that “the contribution of tropical that this assumption is erroneous.Global!Climate!Models!and!Their!Limitations! ! Although there has thus been some convergence between upper-level cloud area and mean SST.’s hypothesis that was derived from contrast in cloud albedos derived by [Fu et al. were insufficiently well known to provide useful insights into future conditions. Tasmania. and from effect of underestimating the iris effect. they estimated it would “more before the infrared iris effect debate emerged. condensation nuclei. to be status of the climate-modeling enterprise two years substantial. resulted from contemporary climate model results were already variations in subtropical clouds that are not physically being “used by many decision-makers.” so that “the near-zero Charlson et al.51. and must continuously evaluate and improve the GCMs Hartmann and Michelsen (2002) quickly claimed the we use.” Fu et purposes.” In the end. As a radiation balance is significantly influenced by the result. (1987) have a sound physical basis.” although he was forced to acknowledge that correlation noted by Lindzen et al. His Lindzen’s challenge to what had become climatic advice in the light of this knowledge gap was that “we political correctness could not go uncontested.03.15 to -0.” The sensitivity of this negative Grassl (2000).3 for a more complete discussion. concentration. which entirely offset the effects of anthropogenic CO2 more effectively permit infrared cooling. Charlson et al. Chou et al. “the cloudy-moist region appears to act community’s best minds continue to clash over the as an infrared adaptive iris that opens up and closes nature and magnitude of a phenomenon that could down the regions free of upper-level clouds.45 to -1. (2002) also chipped away at the adaptive infrared which we still lack definitive answers—demonstrates iris concept.” and that since “thin cirrus are widespread oxidation products within the context described above in the tropics and . which is dependent upon the In a contemporaneously published reply to this availability of condensation nuclei that have their critique.” while dimethyl sulfide (DMS) in the oceans with climate. Essentially. “may scientific literature. sensitive current climate models” that were being including cloud optical and precipitation properties used to predict the consequences of projected caused by changes in the spectrum of cloud increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.” al.” Ayers and Gillett al. Chou et al. in a review of the then-current feedback was calculated by Lindzen et al. agreed that Lindzen et al. noted than cancel all the positive feedbacks in the more that changes in many climate-related phenomena. In fact.. the debate that the area of cirrus cloud coverage normalized by a over the reality and/or magnitude of the adaptive measure of the area of cumulus coverage decreased infrared iris effect continues. the cloud albedo calculated by [Fu et instances “not well understood.] is too large for cirrus clouds and too small for (2000) summarized empirical evidence supporting boundary layer clouds. As but a single high clouds to the feedback process would be small example. reports of other pertinent studies in the peer-reviewed however. (1987) described a negative since the radiative forcing over the tropical high cloud feedback process that links biologically-produced region is near zero and not strongly positive. temperature. by at basic tenet of this hypothesis is that the global least 60 percent and 33 percent. respectively. (2002) stated that Fu et al. a host of questions posed by Grassl—for al.” that it was thus “unreasonable to interpret these Although some may think that what we currently changes as evidence that deep tropical convective know about the subject is sufficient for predictive anvils contract in response to SST increases. and that the albedo of -0.’s origin in the flux of DMS from the world’s oceans to approach of specifying longwave emission and cloud the atmosphere. in such a manner as to resist changes in tropical surface emissions.) The effects were overestimated by Lindzen et al.

additionally say that “the largesystem involving marine biota. they say “there is little question why the from current climate-modeling predictions and should cloud parameterization problem is taking a long time be taken into account. all of which influence the cloud complicated. waterBecause. as they report that “downdrafts are properties of aerosols found in northeast Atlantic either not parameterized or crudely parameterized in marine air arriving at the Mace Head Atmospheric large-scale models. Further to this point. nor are analogous phenomena They state that “our understanding of the interactions that occur over land included in them.” They report.” as they call them. 15 percent. (See also. declare.” biological activity was at its lowest. when Randall et al. and these processes are not fully as they begin to describe what they call the “appalling incorporated into even the very best of the current complexity” of the cloud parameterization situation.” and “cloud parameterization condensation nuclei activation potential. regulation and reactive atmospheric chemistry in the however.” or as identify the most important processes on the basis of they say in another place in their paper.” “At this time.. turbulence. they had to mass (about 45 percent is water-insoluble and about report that the concept of detrainment was “somewhat 18 percent water-soluble).” but they report that only picture of what influences marine cloud condensation a few GCMs have even attempted to do so. the organic As for interactions between convective and stratiform fraction of the submicrometer aerosol mass was about clouds.” In fact. O’Dowd et al. “no existing GCM includes a satisfactory cloud droplet concentration by 15 percent to more parameterization of the effects of mesoscale cloud than 100 percent and is therefore an important circulations.7 of this report.” predicted CO2-induced global warming over the “Clouds are complicated.” component of the aerosol-cloud-climate feedback Randall et al. global circulation is still in a fairly primitive state. no better. as their parameterizations are described by In doing so. state that their data “completely change the processes acting in concert. murky” and the conditions that trigger detrainment they performed model simulations that indicated that were “imperfectly understood. such as those of the hot towers [of cumulus convection] with the discussed by Idso (1990). “at the current rate The empirical evidence analyzed by Ayers and of progress. the situation is phytoplanktonic blooms at various times of the year.. (2004) it’s not surprising we also don’t know much about measured size-resolved physical and chemical what comes down.” What is more. during the 1970s and ‘80s. crop of climate models. During the spring through autumn.” as the marine-derived organic matter “can enhance the they put it.” To drive this source of organic matter from the ocean is omitted point home. (2003).Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! “the representation of cloud processes in global and there is “compelling observational evidence to atmospheric models has been recognized for decades suggest that DMS and its atmospheric products as the source of much of the uncertainty surrounding participate significantly in processes of climate predictions of climate variability. Why? nuclei given that water-soluble organic carbon. in this regard. as “very rough caricatures of reality.” Even at the time of their study. cloud parameterization deficiencies will Gillett highlights an important suite of negative continue to plague us for many more decades into the feedback processes that act in opposition to modelfuture.” Randall et al. Randall et al. “the cloud insoluble organic carbon and surface-active parameterization problem is overwhelmingly properties.” to solve: It is very. they say. the problem remains largely Hemisphere. report that “cumulus parameterizations were however.” Section 2. “an important woefully incomplete observations. the four Another perspective on the cloud-climate scientists conclude that “a sober assessment suggests conundrum is provided by Randall et al. when biological activity was high.” unsolved. world’s oceans. are typically developers. very hard.” Based on these findings. who that with current approaches the cloud state at the outset of their review of the subject that 18 . as they continue.” Research station on the west coast of Ireland during With respect to stratiform clouds. are still “struggling to not parameterized in current climate models. and As for the significance of their findings.) and not knowing all that much about what goes up. O’Dowd radiation should be parameterized as closely coupled et al. they found that in the winter. they extensively tested against observations without even found that “the organic fraction dominates and accounting for the effects of the attendant stratiform contributes 63 percent to the submicrometer aerosol clouds. that “despite the best efforts of [the climate remote marine boundary layer of the Southern modeling] community .” scale effects of microphysics.

” The main conclusions of The work of 20 climate modelers involved in this this study. in order to Hence.” This is presented here and to improve the models. Zhang et al.” in order to “document the simulating clouds so that future progress can be performance quality of state-of-the-art GCMs in measured more objectively. First. 1°S).” partially due. System (CERES) program. And in the case of individual cloud types. enthusiastic remarks of a handful of exasperated Zhang et al. they continue. the majority of convergence zone (ITCZ). and (2) to reveal serious modeling the first-order characteristics of subtropical deficiencies in the models so as to improve them.. measurements can reach several hundred percent. representation of clouds in general-circulation models conclude that “much more needs to be done to fully remains one of the most important as yet unresolved understand the physical causes of model cloud biases [our italics] issues in atmospheric modeling. were that “(1) exercise reveals a huge list of major model almost all models strongly underpredicted both cloud imperfections. and which therefore International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project could have readily refuted their assessment of the (ISCCP) and the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy situation if they felt that such was appropriate. while data from the with nine large-scale models [were] carried out for CERES program were available for the winter months June/July/August 1998 and the quality of the results of 2001 and 2002 and for the summer months of 2000 [was] assessed along a cross-section in the subtropical and 2001. “to the overwhelming L’Ecuyer and Stephens (2007) used multi-sensor variety of clouds observed in the atmosphere. and microwave even more so due to the large number of physical radiance obtained from the Tropical Rainfall processes governing cloud formation and evolution as Measuring Mission satellite for the period from well as the great complexity of their interactions. also found “the a result of these and other observations. Furthermore. infrared. with some amount are overpredicted by most models.” As hailing from nine different countries. In addition. ISCCP data were Siebesma et al. the discrepancies in the outgoing long-wave radiation are group of researchers reports that “differences of most pronounced in the ITCZ.” In fact.” seasonal amplitudes among the models and satellite The 17 scientists who wrote Siebesma et al. when the trade-wind regions and in the intertropical stratified in optical thickness ranges. (2005) compared basic cloud climate modelers. they conclude that through repeated critical evaluate the sensitivity of atmospheric heating—and evaluations of the type they conducted. For low clouds.” To show that the basis for this conclusion is In an effort to assess the status of state-of-the-art robust. they models simulated about 80 percent of optically state that “similar biases for the short-wave radiation intermediate clouds and 60 percent of optically thin were found at the top of the atmosphere. and that while (2) the situation is opposite in the trade-wind the majority of the models simulated only 30 to 40 region and the tropics where cloud cover and cloud percent of the observed middle clouds. (1) to assess the current status of climate models in 35°N) to (187.” January 1998 through December 1999. Zhang et al.5°E.. such that the grand radiation of typically 60 Wm-2 in the stratocumulus mean of low clouds from all models was only 70 to regimes and a similar underprediction of 60 Wm-2 in 80 percent of what was observed. (2004) report that “simulations available from 1983 to 2001. models simulating less than a quarter of observed they report that “these deficiencies result in an middle clouds. and tropical cloud systems. “the scientific the factors that modify it—to changes in east-west sea community will be forced to develop further surface temperature gradients associated with the physically sound parameterizations that ultimately 19 . according to Siebesma et al.Global!Climate!Models!and!Their!Limitations! ! [our italics] result in models that are capable of parameterization problem will not be ‘solved’ in any simulating our climate system with increasing of our lifetimes. report a four-fold cover and cloud amount in the stratocumulus regions difference in high clouds among the models. while the grand mean of all atmosphere’s CO2 concentration.” which discrepancies are the models simulated optically thick clouds more than to be compared with a radiative forcing of only a twice as frequently as was found to be the case in the couple of Wm-2 for a 300 ppm increase in the satellite observations. and cannot be said to rest on the less-thanclimate models in simulating cloud-related processes. they report that half overprediction of the downwelling surface short-wave the models underestimated them.” realism. we report the results of additional climatologies derived from 10 atmospheric GCMs studies of the subject that were published subsequent with satellite measurements obtained from the to the analysis of Randall et al. but observations of visible. The purpose of their analysis was two-fold: and tropical North Pacific ranging from (235°E. while clouds..

1984. and regional (GCE) model during the South China Sea Monsoon energy budgets in the east and west Pacific are Experiment (SCSMEX) field campaign of 18 May-18 observed to respond to the eastward migration of June 1998.” spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that and they say that these deficiencies “cannot be contribute to the associated cloud field. implying distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than errors in total cloudiness.” In addition. Webster and Stephens. Cess et al. especially the amount of graupel as precipitation. precipitation.. not very efficient in stratiform rain findings. and in summation. and precipitation in current climate models. warm sea surface temperatures. 2006. (4) “the zonal atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific to model has much higher domain-averaged OLR ENSO. cloud thickness. they reported that “many models (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total also misrepresent the radiative impacts of clouds in cloud fraction”. (5) “the model has a more skewed both regions [the east and west Pacific].” The authors report that: (1) “the GCE rainfall Results indicated that “a majority of the models spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains examined do not reproduce the apparent westward than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM transport of energy in the equatorial Pacific during the Microwave Imager) observations”. 1993. radiative flux changes and surface temperature (T). a study by Spencer and climate. Zhou et al.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! deficiencies.” As a result of these much-less-than-adequate GCE is . (2) “the GCE 1998 El Niño event. as areas. Alabama “have become one of the primary tools to develop the then point out that computer models typically assume physical parameterizations of moist and other that if the causes of internal sources of variability (X subgrid-scale processes in global circulation and terms) are uncorrelated to surface temperature climate models. (6) “the clouds.” The are key factors in predicting the future climate. (3) “the often larger than the intrinsic ENSO signal itself. Senior and Mitchell.” noting that “the sensitivity of deep change (e. indicating that the model’s relative frequency of occurrence of high and low cloud field is insufficient in area extent”. Spencer et al. Stephens.. 2005.” To help stimulate progress in these strong 1998 El Niño event in the tropical Pacific. perturbations has been limited by large uncertainties (2007) state that “clouds and precipitation play key regarding how clouds and other elements of the roles in linking the earth’s energy cycle and water climate system feed back to surface temperature cycles.” Braswell (2008) observed that “our understanding of In another recent paper. total heating. model also cannot simulate the bright band and the implying an inherent lack of predictive capability in sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing the ensemble with regard to the response of the mean level in stratiform rain as seen from PR”.. This protocol. between model and observations exist in the rain clouds. the two researchers from Colorado State conditions because of the large amounts of slowly University’s Department of Atmospheric Science falling snow and graupel that are simulated”. the nine scientists compared the cloud and expressed by the simulations of nine general precipitation properties observed from the Clouds and circulation models of the atmosphere that were the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and utilized in the IPCC’s most recent Fourth Assessment Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Report. 2007).” ignored when interpreting their predictions of future Even more recently..g. and the CERES observations. then they will not affect the accuracy of used in place of traditional cloud parameterizations in regressions used to estimate the relationship between such models. by [Forster and Gregory (2006)] grid resolutions and have many known and unknown 20 . precipitation efficiency in response to climate change Soden and Held. in their words. and conclude that “deficiencies remain in the finally.” They also found that “the model produces excessive condensed water loading in intermodel variability in the responses of the column. In this regard. this one published in the how sensitive the climate system is to radiative Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. the authors note that “CRMs still But “while it is true that the processes that cause the need parameterizations on scales smaller than their X terms are.” They two scientists from the Earth System Science Center also report that cloud resolving models or CRMs at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.. convective cloud systems and their associated 1990. (7) “large differences representation of relationships between radiation.” and that CRMs could someday be changes. and vertical motion is indicated by both TMI and PR observations”. “provides a instruments against simulations obtained from the natural example of a short-term climate change three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble scenario in which clouds.

1987. “have resolutions fine enough to Cess. Oceanic phytoplankton. cloud albedo and climate.W. can be found at http://www. DMS and its oxidation something called “cloud system-resolving models” or products in the remote marine atmosphere: implications for CSRMs. in Ayers. with the difference increasing as the amount of nonfeedback change. Hence. atmospheric sulfur.Global!Climate!Models!and!Their!Limitations! ! will become possible to use such global CSRMs to definition. expected question of CO2-induced “anthropogenic climate feedback value of the radiative forcing.co2science.” These advanced models. with Randall et al. “it 21 . Journal of Geophysical Research 95: domains large enough to encompass many clouds 16601-16615. relevant to those forcings cannot be uncorrelated to T – for the such problems as anthropogenic climate change. in a few more decades. et al. according to Randall et al.” but only with one might expect from stochastic variations in low the proviso that the IPCC should admit it is truly cloud cover. the scientific debate over the radiative flux noise was increased. This in reliable theoretical models. Climate models currently do not possibly other feedbacks – could be significantly provide a reliable scientific basis for implementing biased in the positive direction.” They ask “to wait to address an issue that nations of the world are what degree could nonfeedback sources of radiative confronting now. R. Lovelock.” Nevertheless.” simple reason that it is a radiative forcing that causes A few more decades. J. The cloud parameterization problem by still have a long way to go before they are ready to itself is so complex that no one can validly claim that properly assess the roles of various types of clouds humanity’s continued utilization of fossil-fuel energy and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of will result in massive counter-productive climatic earth’s climate in response to variations in changes. however. R. and space-time of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models.php.” causes and processes of global warming is still the authors write. it is clear that CRMs emissions. we say “go for it. from their host GCMs. over many cloud lifetimes. are biased in the positive direction.org/ placed in what it currently suggests about earth’s subject/m/inadeqclouds. “It is significant. We believe. “that all model errors for runs ongoing and there is no scientific case for consistent with satellite-observed variability are in the governments to regulate greenhouse gas emissions in direction of positive feedback. M.D. uncorrelated to T..” programs designed to restrict anthropogenic CO2 In light of these findings.” Not wanting to be accused of impeding nonfeedback radiative source term N. including merely done to indicate that the climate modeling reviews of newer publications as they become enterprise is not yet at the stage where faith should be available..” In other words. There is no justification for that conclusion anthropogenic and background forcings.O. G. Randall et al. these improvements mean that “the computational cost of Charlson. and Gillett. as they describe them.” which configuration they call a “super“daily random fluctuations in an unknown GCM.” Repeated runs of the model found the needed in order to obtain a definitive answer to the diagnosed feedback departed from the true.” Of course.G. it is Additional information on this topic.J. Journal of Sea models or SCMs that can be “surgically extracted Research 43: 275-286. according to Randall et al. 1990. running a CSRM is hundreds or thousands of times S. say that an flux variability contaminate feedback estimates?” approach that could be used very soon (to possibly Spencer and Braswell use a “very simple timedetermine whether or not there even is a problem) is dependent model of temperature deviations away to “run a CSRM as a ‘superparameterization’ inside a from an equilibrium state” to estimate the effects of GCM.” In other words. raising the possibility an expensive and likely futile attempt to alter the that current observational estimates of cloud feedback course of future climate.E.. the response of T to perform century-scale climate simulations. 2000. evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs. climatic response to the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content.. and Warren.P. Andrea.. which can be compared with single-column climate and atmospheric chemistry. “current knowledge of many aspects of earth’s climate system observational diagnoses of cloud feedback – and is sadly deficient. greater than that of running an SCM. that our as the authors say in their abstract. The hope of the climate-modeling community of References tomorrow resides. is a little long to changes in T [italics in the original]. Nature 326: 655-661. such as those scientific progress. R. Intercomparison and interpretation represent individual cloud elements.

W.P. J. M.. M. 2005.. P.. Decesari. Muller. and Grecu. C. Part I: South China Sea monsoon experiment. Cambridge University Press. Lindzen.. G.C. Lohmann.L. C.B. Journal of Climate 19: 6181-6194. Lin. Hartmann..L. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 1547-1564.. Bradley. Neggers. Cavalli. Facchini. Rosati. and Michelsen. Soden.D. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83: 249-254..A. J.J. A. B. (Ed.B.J. Tropical sensitivity of a coupled model to specified ISCCP low clouds. Pincus. M.. and Severijns. Journal of Climate 20: 4548-4571.-D.J. R. N. D. and Stephens.L. Mircea. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: D15S02. Khairoutdinov. O’Dowd. W. G. Cloud-radiation feedback and the climate problem. M. Spencer. 2001. Ceburnis. Sensitivity of cloud and radiation parameterizations to changes in vertical resolution. Q. and Mitchell. Loeb. T. Journal of Climate 13: 2239-2260. and Hnilo. Minnis. R. A. C.J. J.. P.H.W. Senior. M. A. Klein.. R. S.C.. R. Clouds feedbacks in the climate system: A critical review. Jones. Christy.Y. M.. P. and Hou. 2000.W. The relationship of cloud cover to near-surface temperature and humidity: Comparison of GCM simulations with empirical data. G. and Braswell. Chou. J. 2002. A role for soil microbes in moderating the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect? Soil Science 149: 179180. Randall..1029/2004 JD005021. J..E. Arakawa.S. C. 2000.. Harries. J. F. I.. 2007. 2000. J.. Kohler. and Iacobellis. Cloud representation in general-circulation models over the northern Pacific Ocean: A EUROCS intercomparison study.. Contemporary Physics 41: 309-322... M. Journal of Climate 19: 3354-3360.. Fuzzi. Y. C. W.E. H. Grabowski. Stephens. In Houghton. Reply to: “Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris feedback?” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2: 99-101.T. Bony. P.Y. Zhou.M. The tropical atmospheric energy budget from the TRMM perspective. Hou.Y. A. D..A. 1984. J. Marquet. Lock..A.Y. M. G. and Gudgel. Musat.. D. F. Webb.-D. and Yang.. and Hou. J. W. K.T.L.B. W. D.F.S. Suarez. Lenderink.T. CO2 and climate: The impact of cloud parameterization. Biogenically driven organic contribution to marine aerosol. J. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L15707. Grassl. I. Teixeira. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 64: 43094329... and Putaud. Journal of Climate 6: 393-418.P.-K. and Held. M.R. Siebesma. Does the earth have an adaptive infrared iris? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 417-432. Lane. 2002.S. B. R.. Use of high-resolution satellite observations to evaluate cloud and precipitation statistics from cloud-resolving model simulations. 2000.S. Journal of Climate 21: 5624-5628. and Stephens. P. Yoon.. Somerville. Olmeda. R. D.. Jakob...J. M.1029/2007GLO296998. 1993. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from coupled climate model integrations. Cloud microphysics and the tropical climate: Cloud-resolving model perspective.. M.-S.L... Gordon.. L’Ecuyer. Journal of Climate 18: 237-273..E. Physics of the earth’s radiative energy balance. Precipitation One of the predictions of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) is that the planet’s . U. Baker.) The Global Climate..S.D. and Grabowski. H. Shie. Fu. W. C. Calvo. Cederwall. C.. Chlond. Nature 431: 676-680.4.Ya.Potential biases in feedback diagnosis from observational data: A simple model demonstration. Idso.P. Lindzen.. 2003. Comparing clouds and their seasonal variations in 10 atmospheric general circulation models with satellite measurements. 2006. K. R. Hack. Breaking the cloud parameterization 22 deadlock.. A. M. E. W.-D. Groisman. Olson.D. X. Status and improvements of coupled general circulation models.. and Hartmann.. J. Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations. Yao.J. Lau.W.. M. R.. Del Genio. Journal of Climate 13: 2306-2322. 2000. Tao. A.. Bacmeister. R. S.. 2007. Chou.C. R.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Chou.. 2008. Braswell. 2007.M. Wu. 2002. Y.. M. 63-78. and Sun. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 130: 3245-3267.J.-P. H.. Webster. Grenier. A.. Part II: Evaluating GCM representations of the sensitivity of regional energy and water cycles to the 1998-99 ENSO cycle.L. Xie. No evidence for IRIS...F. An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. 1. Forster.. S. and Taylor. S. 2004.H. D..J. Kitagawa. 2004. 2000. Journal of Climate 13: 915922. 2006.L. A. S. J. Lin.G. Stier. van Meijgaard. S... doi:10. S. doi:10. Spencer. 1990. P.-M. 2005.D. Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris feedback? Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2: 31-37.. Zhang. Science 288: 1991-1997. Journal of Climate 13: 1858-1878. A.

Gadgil et al. Shortcomings monsoon rainfall measurements and model were also evident in the GCM’s inability to accurately predictions. little confidence can be placed in any during a period of global warming that is said to have definite predictions of such effects.” or no extreme years. Furthermore. and as a result of the fact that the rainfall simulations produced by a GCM with real2004 summer monsoon season of India experienced a world observations from West Africa for the period 13 percent precipitation deficit that was not predicted 1960-1990. frequently predicting excess rainfall when found that “interannual variability [was] seriously drought occurred and drought when excess rainfall disturbed in the GCM as compared to what it [was] in was received. evaluated generated large differences between precipitation was not rapid enough. as the researchers found that the simulated seven decades earlier.” unusual about the SWE record of the twentieth Lau et al. In addition. atmosphere-ocean model. The empirical models Gadgil et rainy season began too early and that the increase in al.Global!Climate!Models!and!Their!Limitations! ! warming that was unprecedented over the past two hydrologic cycle will intensify as the world warms. the characteristics had not improved since the very first seasonal cycle of precipitation was not well versions of the models were applied to the task some simulated.” the subject. she analyzed the reconstructed SWE data monsoon with a much higher-resolution GCM. which the IPCC claims experienced a the 1970s-’90s to provide “an ideal test bed for 23 .” been the most significant of the past 20 centuries. as it typically correctly predict even the sign of the precipitation predicted too much precipitation. gave two comparing observed monsoon rainfall totals with main reasons: parameterization of rainfall processes simulated values obtained from 20 state-of-the-art in the GCM was much too simple. Their failure in this representation of sub-grid scale and convective regard is especially damning because it occurred processes. Walsh and Pittock (1998) reported “there Specifically. Their analysis revealed that the model by any of the empirical or dynamical models output was affected by a number of temporal and regularly used in making rainfall forecasts. were significantly greater Despite model advancements and an ever-improving than what was typically observed. millennia. exceeding realunderstanding of monsoon variability.” As for why the GCM performed so The dynamical models fared even worse. In addition. In an early review of notable for several periods that lack extreme years. for both low and high SWE and that “there is considerable evidence that the extremes. Two years later. and spatial GCMs and a supposedly superior coupled resolution was much too coarse. The simulated models forecast skill over the period 1932-2004. she determined that “the twentieth is some evidence from climate model studies that. reported that Three years later. in a century is notable for several periods that contain few warmer climate. leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity Woodhouse found “the twentieth century is of extreme precipitation events. Lebel et al. (2005) performed a historical analysis of the between observed and modeled data. for example.” Upon further study. the observations. rainfall totals. but its in such a way as to determine if there was anything output also proved to be “not realistic.” as she Molteni (2004) attempted to model the Indian phrased it. In poorly in these several respects. rainfall events will be more intense. however. it was anomaly.” year of the period 1569-1999 for the drainage basin of And as with the empirical models. the models often failed to simulate convective rainfall events. (2000) compared Two years later. models also frequently failed to correctly capture because “an understanding of the long-term even the sign of the observed rainfall anomalies. (2006) considered the Sahel drought of century. the researchers report that Brankovic and guiding expectations for future variability. they found the world values by 25 percent during the dry season and models’ skill in forecasting the Indian monsoon’s 75 percent during the rainy season. they were years. the dynamical the Gunnison River of western Colorado.” These results are in direct contradiction of forced to conclude that “because of the insufficient what GCMs typically predict should occur in resolution of climate models and their generally crude response to global warming. USA. Woodhouse (2003) generated a not a single one of those many models was able “to tree-ring-based history of snow water equivalent simulate correctly the interannual variation of the (SWE) characteristic of the first day of April for each summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region. Then. In characteristics of snowpack variability is useful for addition. Gadgil et spatial biases that led to significant differences al. Lebel et al.” and she reports that “the twentieth century frequency of extreme rainfall events may increase in also contains the lowest percent of extreme low SWE the tropics.

they derived a real-world increase in circulation models] in simulating long-term drought. severity Allan and Soden (2007) quantified trends in and duration.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Appropriately combining the results of these two evaluating the capability of CGCMs [coupled general endeavors. in their words. as well as various climate day and projections of future changes provided by up modeling analyses. They decided to see what Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) of had happened in the real world in this regard over the Adler et al. and over all oceans the increase a reasonable Sahel drought signal.” but that “these period. predicted an increase in to 16 state-of-the-art climate models. concluded that the only way to bring the that participated in the twentieth-century coupled two results into harmony was for there to have been a climate simulations of the Intergovernmental Panel on 19-year decline in global wind speeds.” 30°S to 30°N. in a study published in branches of the planet’s tropical circulation and Science. the two results anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases and were about as opposite as they could possibly be.” the Sahel drought could only simulate the increasing In discussing these results. But when Climate Change [IPCC] Assessment Report 4. they report that “when averaged over the tropics from and volcanic eruptions. long-term variation in solar radiation. Wentz et al. surface temperature coupling and land surface How was this huge discrepancy to be resolved? processes in producing the Sahel drought in CGCMs Wentz et al. in their observed drought period. In quantitative terms. they century.8 percent decade-1. they should have been accompanied by a decrease in report that “even the model with the highest skill for winds on the order of 0. as sulfate aerosols.” precipitation within ascending and descending Wentz et al. “predict that the 1987-to-2006 warming significant deviation from normal. when data from the and Arkin (1998) for the period 1979-2006. seven models was 0.” They also observe All 19 of the CGCMs employed in the IPCC’s Fourth that this dramatic difference between the real world of Assessment Report.08 m s-1 (1. noted that the Coupled Model compared their results with simulations of the present Intercomparison Project.04 m s-1 (0. and using data obtained from the Global trends are substantially larger in magnitude than Precipitation Climatology Project that were acquired present-day simulations and projections into the 21st from both satellite and rain gauge measurements.20°C per decade.” especially in the case of the descending derived precipitation trends for earth’s continents. regions. failed to nature and the virtual world of climate modeling “has adequately simulate the basic characteristics of “one enormous impact” and the questions raised by the of the most pronounced signals of climate change” of discrepancy “are far from being settled. for the tropics “the GPCP 24 . while for Global Historical Climatology Network and satellite the period 1987-2006 they came from the monthly measurements of the lower troposphere indicated mean intercalibrated Version 6 Special Sensor there had been a global temperature rise on the order Microwave Imager (SSM/I) precipitation data of 0. including wind speeds. which is somewhere between coupled atmosphere-ocean-land processes and their 2.3 and 7.0 percent) decade-1.” the past century—as defined by its start date.” data and the GCMs is not clear. The precipitation on the order of 1 to 3 percent per °C of precipitation data for this analysis came from the surface global warming.6 In performing this analysis. More specifically. say “the trend of severe drought events but not the magnitude. the climate scientists found.0 times larger than what is predicted by interactions.” while global produce excessive rainfall over [the] Sahel during the coupled ocean-atmosphere models or GCMs. and four models show no words. the four rising precipitation trends in the ascending regions Remote Sensing Systems scientists derived and decreasing trends in the descending regions are precipitation trends for the world’s oceans over this detected in the observational datasets. an increase in global realistic prescribed external forcing. described by Wentz et al. the winds increased by 0.” in looking at the past 19 years of SSM/I wind retrievals. in other words. that “only eight models produce percent) decade-1.” In addition. (2007). which the 19 CGCMs “are driven by combinations of they found just the opposite. (2003) and the Climate Prediction Center prior 19 years (1987-2006) of supposedly Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data of Xie unprecedented global warming.” They chose to “explore the roles of sea state-of-the-art climate models. (2007). precipitation on the order of 7 percent per °C of and the veracity of the models’ representation of surface global warming. Using satellite observations obtained from the The researchers reported “an emerging signal of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). reason for the discrepancy between the observational nor the beginning time and duration of the events.

Northern Hemisphere ITCZ. Additional information on this topic. tropical mean climate by the climate models is a In conclusion. the models’ ability to “unfortunately. Adler. excessive LHF. Rudolf. Ferraro. E. R. and precipitation.” Lin (2007) states that “a good simulation of considered reliable. Failure to model any one of To explore the nature of this problem in greater these elements would be grounds for rejecting claims depth. [latent heat flux]. that “the AMIP runs evaporation over the ocean are substantially greater also produce excessive precipitation over much of the than those simulated by climate models. Noting that the difference between the models Lin adds that “over the eastern Pacific stratus region. This work revealed.F. and in hope of making some progress in that the IPCC provides the evidence needed to justify resolving it. and often associated with The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project insufficient precipitation over the equatorial Pacific. J.” What is Tropics including the equatorial Pacific. Chang. S. as well as “overly strong trade winds.” but improving climate models.php.. there is significant reason to conclude the resolution of the issue “has enormous impact” and that current state-of-the-art CGCM predictions of likewise concluded that the questions raised by the CO2-induced global warming should not be discrepancy “are far from being settled.. 2007) and also supported by also simulate insufficient latitudinal asymmetry in the analysis of Yu and Weller (2007)..” (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). Arkin. which is characterized by excessive precipitation over much of References the Tropics (e.. of the current state-of-the-art CGCMs have some degree of the double-ITCZ problem.” explained by changes in the reanalysis fields used to With the solutions to all of these long-standing subsample the observations but instead must relate to problems continuing to remain “elusive. excessive LHF Journal of Hydrometeorology 4: 1147-1167.” This same dilemma was also prerequisites for “good simulations/predictions” of faced by Wentz et al.co2science. leading to significant cold SST (sea surface trend is about 2-3 times larger than the model temperature) bias in much of the tropical oceans.” clouds. and insufficient SWF [shortwave 25 . Curtis. can be found at http://www..” noting that “most of the CGCMs improved at all. and D. consistent with previous The authors further note that “most of the models findings (Wentz et al. in spite of the billions of dollars prerequisite for their good simulations/predictions of spent by the United States alone on developing and tropical variabilities and global teleconnections. Gruber. precipitation changes over land also appear larger and insufficient SWF... Convergence Zone]. R.J.” and acknowledging that “a synthetic advanced GCMs to accurately model radiation. Southern Hemisphere SPCZ [South Pacific Janowiak.” and with errors in the satellite data or in the model Lin suggesting that the sought-for solutions are in fact parameterizations.” which suggests that “the than model simulations over the 20th century (Zhang excessive tropical precipitation is an intrinsic error of et al.” who precipitation and SST over the eastern Pacific and additionally contend that “observed increases of Atlantic Oceans. and they too stated that future climate. (2007). equatorial Indian Ocean). Susskind.org/ them... which also more... 2007). B. and real-world measurements “has important most of the models produce insufficient stratus-SST implications for future predictions of climate change. The scientific literature is filled with produce a double-intertropical convergence zone studies documenting the inability of even the most (ITCZ) pattern..” and further. Allan and Soden note that “observed leads to overly strong trade winds. the tropical mean climate has not been correctly simulate even the largest and most well simulated by the coupled general circulation regionally-important of earth’s atmospheric models (CGCMs) used for climate predictions and phenomena—the tropical Indian monsoon—hasn’t projections.Global!Climate!Models!and!Their!Limitations! ! flux]..” And if that is not enough. Lin analyzed tropical mean climate regulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas simulations of the 20-year period 1979-99 provided emissions. 2003. U. Schneider.” the atmospheric models. and Nelkin. Bolvin. A. Huffman. A. Maritime Continent.” ensemble mean trend. P. that “most subject/p/precipmodelinadeq.g. view of the double-ITCZ problem is still elusive. Xie. including together with concurrent Atmospheric Model reviews of newer publications as they become Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from 12 of available. P. in Lin’s words.” feedback associated with insufficient sensitivity of Allan and Soden say “the discrepancy cannot be stratus cloud amount to SST. J. by 22 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report CGCMs. G.

2007. Rajeevan. Yu. M. P. Journal of Climate 20: 4497-4525. Brankovic.. Gadgil.. K. Wentz. 2003. 26 .-L. Monsoon prediction—Why yet another failure? Current Science 88: 1389-1400. F. J. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88: 527539. and Nozawa. Climatic Change 39: 199-213. Hilburn. and Nanjundiah. 2007. R. A. Journal of Climate 16: 1551-1561.B. F.. Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation. 1998. X. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10. and Soden. T. K.P. Le Barbé. 2006. R. F.. 2004. G. N. Lambert. Walsh.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Allan. Journal of Climate 11: 137-164. and extreme rainfall events as a result of climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10. Objectively analyzed air-sea heat fluxes for the global ice-free oceans (1981-2005). and Wang. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 14: 275-295.A.M. 1998. Climate Dynamics 22: 139-155. and Molteni.A. The double-ITCZ problem in IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Ocean-atmosphere feedback analysis..1029/2005JD006281. Global monthly precipitation estimates from satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation. 2007..H. Lebel.1029/2007GL031460. F.. and Pittock. Hegerl.P. Lau. Nature 448: 461-465.. hurricanes.S..A. and Polcher. R. Zwiers. S. Delclaux. S. C. L. B. Solomon. 2005. Ricciardulli. 2007. 2000. Woodhouse.W. and Mears. Gillett..A. F. A 431-yr reconstruction of western Colorado snowpack from tree rings. C. 2007. C. S. Kim. P. How much more rain will global warming bring? Science 317: 233-235. Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Shen. From GCM scales to hydrological scales: rainfall variability in West Africa. J. T. and Weller. and Arkin. H. Stott.C. Zhang. Xie. L.P. Lin.J..-M.J. K. P. A multimodel study of the twentieth-century simulations of Sahel drought from the 1970s to 1990s.. K.. Potential changes in tropical storms. L. Seasonal climate and variability of the ECMWF ERA-40 model.

Aerosols Introduction According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007-I.5°C [italics in the original]” (Ibid. 2007-I. S. Z. Many scientific studies suggest this modelderived sensitivity is too large and feedbacks in the climate system reduce it to values that are an order of magnitude smaller. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. and nitrous oxide is +2. p. 12). while cool and dry downdrafts promote ocean surface cooling by increasing sensible and latent heat fluxes there. some of which have the ability to totally offset the radiative forcing expected from the rise in atmospheric CO2. Methane 2. Additional information on this topic. This chapter reviews those feedbacks most often mentioned in the scientific literature. 2..6. methane. Miller. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. can be found at http://www. M.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C. Solomon. UK. Clouds 2.7.L. Tignor and H. the cloud-base airmass is charged with the moist static energy needed for clouds to reach the upper troposphere. Sud et al. describe it. Qin. Iodocompounds 2. Nitrous Oxide 2. (1999) demonstrated that deep convection in the tropics acts as a thermostat to keep sea surface temperature (SST) oscillating between approximately 28° and 30°C. tends “to ventilate the tropical ocean efficiently and help contain the SST between 28°-30°C.” The phenomenon would 27 .30 [+2.1. Marquis.) Cambridge University Press. M. including reviews of feedback factors not discussed here.8. p.1. K. and its rate of increase during the industrial era is very likely to have been unprecedented in more than 10.3. the rise in global average surface temperature “is likely to be in the range 2°C to 4. (Eds. 3). Manning.” as Sud et al.B. Carbonyl Sulfide 2. Their analysis suggests that as SSTs reach 28°-29°C.35] W m-2. Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing 2. Clouds Based on data obtained from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere—Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment.4.5.2. Cambridge.org/subject/f/subject _f. Chen. References IPCC. “the combined radiative forcing due to increases in carbon dioxide. The IPCC calculates that this sensitivity of earth’s climate system to greenhouse gases (GHG) means that if CO2 concentrations were to double.07 to +2.php under the heading Feedback Factors. This “thermostat-like control..! 2 ! Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing ! 2. D.co2science. M. Diffuse Light 2. Dimethyl Sulfide 2. at which point the cloud cover reduces the amount of solar radiation received at the surface of the sea.000 years [italics in the original]” (IPCC. and is very unlikely to be less than 1. Averyt.

and Hameed. the atmosphere et al.. Regional solar-cycle and ENSO effects are removed from the cloud cover change associated with global climate change: time series. these smaller droplets will effectively permit infrared cooling. such that the area of cirrus cloud Australia. criticized by Hartmann and Michelsen (2002) and Fu In summation. which exerts Chou et al. were rebutted by has a tendency to become more cloudy.org/ (coastal southwest. Many of Section 1. Q. Lindzen. 2002.5°C. can be found at http://www. R.L. (2001) used upper-level cloudiness emissions of particulates that redistribute cloud-water data obtained from the Japanese Geostationary into larger numbers of smaller droplets that do not Meteorological Satellite and SST data obtained from rain out of the atmosphere as readily as they would in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction to the absence of this phenomenon. same thing. say “the droplets of reduced size that did indeed suppress cloudy-moist region appears to act as an infrared precipitation by inhibiting further coalescence and ice adaptive iris that opens up and closes down the precipitation formation. As Toon (2000) noted in a regions free of upper-level clouds.L. and southern plains) to demonstrate that. Canada.Y. 83: 249-254. cloud cover had a high correlation with global air temperature.S. to which Rosenfeld gave the name coverage normalized by a measure of the area of pollution tracks in view of their similarity to ship cumulus coverage decreases about 22 percent per tracks. over the period 1900subject/f/feedbackcloud. M.co2science. an exchange that is summarized in a natural brake upon the rising temperature. 1999. 2002. M. The debate over the infrared man’s aerosol-producing activities tend to do the adaptive iris still rages in the scientific community. including Croke et al. D. there appear to be a number of but Lindzen and his colleagues are not the only cloud-mediated processes that help the planet “keep scientists who believe the cooling effect of clouds has its cool.php. and industrial complexes in Turkey. “Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth Herman et al. finding that “when the 11. Journal of Climate 12: 2128-2134. D. Fu. (2002). S.. Rosenfeld also demonstrated that the clouds degree C increase in the SST of the cloudy region. both of which effects The findings of Lindzen et al. the zonally averaged annual linear-fit Case studies for three regions of the United States. (1999) used land-based observations reviews of newer publications as they become of cloud cover for three regions of the United States available. M.3-year Croke. 28 .-D. Lindzen et al. Hence.” been underestimated. Baker. which more commentary on this study. and then Fu et al. and Michelsen. 2002.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Rosenfeld (2000) used satellite data obtained also be expected to prevent SSTs from rising any from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to look higher in response to enhanced CO2-induced radiative for terrestrial analogues of the cloud trails that form in forcing. Reply to: 0. and Hartmann. R. M. were subsequently tend to cool the globe. Tropical with some smaller but significant changes occurring cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris in the equatorial and lower middle latitudes. with mean cloud cover rising from an initial value of 35 percent to a final value of 47 References percent as the mean global air temperature rose by Chou.L. Additional information on this topic.S.. as the earth warms.2 of this report.D. and Hou. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society represents a large cloud-induced cooling influence. (2002). and 130°E-170°W). Cess. the wakes of ships at sea as a consequence of their Lindzen et al. changes in radiation reflected back to space over the period 1979 to 1992. No evidence reflected back to space of 2. trends show that there have been increases in reflectivity (cloudiness) poleward of 40°N and 30°S.8 Wm-2 per decade. in such a manner not “rain out” as quickly and will therefore last longer as to resist changes in tropical surface temperature.” and cover more of the earth.” The feedback? Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2: 31-37. Visualizations derive a strong inverse relationship between upperproduced from the mission data clearly revealed the level cloud area and the mean SST of cloudy regions existence of enhanced cloud trails downwind of urban of the eastern part of the western Pacific (30°S-30°N. coastal northeast. 1987. A. (2001) used Total Ozone Mapping infrared iris feedback?” Atmospheric Chemistry and Spectrometer 380-nm reflectivity data to determine Physics 2: 99-101. overall long-term effect was an increase in radiation Hartmann. In comprising these pollution tracks were composed of describing this phenomenon. which for IRIS.

Idso (1990) suggested that the volatilization of reduced sulfur gases from earth’s soils may be just as important as dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emissions from the world’s oceans in enhancing cloud albedo and thereby cooling the planet and providing a natural brake on the tendency for anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gases to drive global warming. Changes in the Earth’s UV reflectivity from the surface. clouds. Celarier. even in the absence of the surface warming that sets in motion the chain of events that produce the oceanic DMS-induced negative feedback that tends to cool the planet. Larko. where carbon disulfide and dimethyl sulfide—also largely of oceanic origin (Aydin et al. This is a sizeable increase. 2001. and that it too possesses a warming-induced component in addition to its CO2-induced component. M. 2.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! Herman. So strong is this correlation. ocean-surface OCS concentrations were demonstrated by Andreae and Ferek (1992) to be highly correlated with surface-water primary productivity. 1994). Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution.. which must have increased substantially over the past three centuries. He consequently concluded that the CO2-induced augmentation of soil OCS emissions constitutes a mechanism that can cool the planet’s surface (1) in the absence of an impetus for warming. It has also been learned that an even greater portion of naturally produced OCS is created in the atmosphere..2. O. Two years later. A. as a result. Does the earth have an adaptive infrared iris? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 417-432. and Aydin et al.K. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 5353-5368. Carbonyl Sulfide Some time ago. (See Section 2.C. Hence. 2001.-M. where it could exert a cooling influence on the earth and that may have kept the warming of the globe considerably below what it might otherwise have been in the absence of this chain of events. D. 2000. How pollution suppresses rain. another biologically produced sulfur gas that is emitted from soils.W.-D. A solid case can be made for the proposition that both the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the increase in temperature experienced over this period were the driving forces for the concomitant increase in tropospheric OCS concentration and its likely subsequent transport to the stratosphere. 2000. and aerosols. Idso hypothesized that because atmospheric CO2 enrichment augments plant growth and. but that it eventually makes its way into the stratosphere.R.S. this phenomenon should produce an impetus for cooling. What have we subsequently learned about biologically mediated increases in carbonyl sulfide emissions? One important thing is that the OCSinduced cooling mechanism also operates at sea. from a mean value of 373 ppt over the period 1616-1694 to something on the order of 485 ppt today. in fact. vegetative inputs of organic matter to earth’s soils. Mechanisms regulating sea-surface temperatures and deep convection in the tropics. This is important because the tropospheric OCS concentration has risen by approximately 30 percent since the 1600s. Lindzen. 29 . a large portion of which must have ultimately been derived from the products and byproducts of marine photosynthetic activity. (2002) note that only a fourth of it can be attributed to anthropogenic sources. noting that it too is likely to be emitted in increasingly greater quantities as earth’s vegetation responds to the aerial fertilization effect of the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content. and Hou. Idso (1992) expanded this concept to include carbonyl sulfide (OCS). R. and Lau. Consequently. E. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 1019-1022. 1984. where it is transformed into solar-radiation-reflecting sulfate aerosol particles. and Ziemke. G.. Science 287: 1763-1765.. (2) without producing additional clouds or (3) making them any brighter. K. J. just as the DMS-induced cooling mechanism does. Chou. Science 287: 1793-1796. 1999. 2002)—undergo photochemical oxidation (Khalil and Rasmussen. and noting that additions of organic matter to soils tend to increase the amount of sulfur gases they emit. the majority of the tropospheric burden of OCS is ultimately dependent upon photosynthetic activity occurring near the surface of the world’s oceans. Walker. that Erickson and Eaton (1993) developed an empirical model for computing ocean-surface OCS concentrations based solely on surface-water chlorophyll concentrations and values of incoming solar radiation.) On the basis of experiments that showed soil DMS emissions to be positively correlated with soil organic matter content. D. while pointing out that OCS is relatively inert in the troposphere.. Toon.7. J. the rest of the observed OCS increase must have had a natural origin. Sud. Rosenfeld. In a study contemporary with that of Idso (1992)..Y. Y. Barnes et al.

the earth. for 30 . and mass balances of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and such as increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. so that as their Preindustrial atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (OCS) from an Antarctic ice core. M.. including Another fascinating aspect of this multifaceted reviews of newer publications as they become global “biothermostat” was revealed in a laboratory available. involved.783OCS concentrations at one and the same time.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Additional information on this topic.A. 183. And biogeochemical cycling estimates with CZCS satellite data since the consumption of OCS by lichens is under the and general circulation models. U. It operates through a chain of five linkages.K. Diffuse Light they function best.B. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 26. by Kuhn and Kesselmeier (2000). and Eaton. K. M. 1990. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 6: 175led to zero OCS absorption at 35°C. can be attributed to anthropogenic causes.J. S. M. They found that when the lichens were optimally hydrated. Clearly. we cannot be certain how much of the phenomena are themselves powerful negative warming experienced during the twentieth century. rising.J. B. if feedback mechanisms of the type we envision. 1992.. J. and Saltzman.co2science. W. there is obviously much more we need to learn about the The next negative feedback phenomenon is diffused many plant physiological mechanisms that may be light. At Barnes. with different biological entities Kuhn. while 26. which models. central California. The DMS-cloud albedo feedback effect: an upper limit above which the surface air Greatly underestimated? Climatic Change 21: 429-433. Photochemical from approximately 3° to 25°C. Greater CO2-enhanced photosynthetic rates. whereupon their rate production of carbonyl sulfide in seawater and its emission of OCS absorption began a precipitous decline that to the atmosphere. Becker. can be found at http://www.A. algae.E. lifetimes. however. Atmospheric Environment 18: 1805-1813. carbon disulfide (CS2) in the earth’s atmosphere. more OCS from the atmosphere in an attempt to promote even more warming and grow better still.792. USA. The the point where warming becomes a detriment to tropospheric oxidation of DMS: a new source of OCS. Geophysical Research physiological control of carbonic anhydrase—which Letters 20: 683-686. which were collected from an open oak woodland in subject/c/carbonylsulfide.H. this multifaceted phenomenon is extremely complex.org/ study of samples of the lichen Ramalina menziesii. and Ferek. A role for soil microbes in moderating the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect? Soil Science 149: 179phenomenon to be generally operative over most of 180. and Kesselmeier. triggered by the incremental enhancement of the State-of-the-art climate models totally neglect the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect that is produced by an biological processes we have described here. and Rasmussen. Global in an attempt to forestall warming-induced death.1029/2002GL014796. 1984. them. S. Hence. R. Environmental variables controlling the uptake of carbonyl sulfide by tending to both increase and decrease atmospheric lichens. 1994. This being the case. is the key enzyme for OCS uptake in all higher plants. warmer temperatures than a mere 3°C. The first linkages is fully understand the ultimate impact of the OCS cycle the proven propensity for higher levels of atmospheric on climate. they absorbed OCS from the air References at a rate that gradually doubled as air temperature rose Andreae. 1993. and soil organisms—we could expect this Idso. 2000. any.php. I. Until we increase in the air’s CO2 content. even when changes in other forcing factors. D.O. I. produce an impetus for it to do so. they reverse this course of action and Geophysical Research Letters 21: 2389-2392. they extract 10.J.B. The first portion of this response can be explained by the fact that most terrestrial plants prefer much Aydin. and Petroescu. this thermoregulatory function of the biosphere may well be powerful enough to define Idso. 1992. De Bruyn. 2002. and then incorporate them into the climate CO2 to enhance vegetative productivity. begin to rapidly reduce their rates of OCS absorption Erickson III. periodically reversing directions in this regard in response to climate changes that push the temperatures of their respective environments either above or below the various thermal optima at which 2. temperature of the planet may be restricted from Khalil. R.S.3. E. Global sources. Geophysical Research Letters 29: surroundings warm and they grow better.

including direct and diffuse solar radiation.” In fact. 2002) that compared seasonal and annual values of CO2 and water vapor exchange across sites in forests. this reduction is about the magnitude of the real-world perturbation that was actually observed (Sarmiento. which ejected enough gases and fine materials into the atmosphere to produce sufficient aerosol particles to greatly increase the diffuse component of the solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth from that point in time through much of 1993. they concluded that the Mt. (1995). Specifically.” In addition. crops and tundra—which are part of an international network called FLUXNET— investigating the responses of these exchanges to variations in a number of environmental factors. enable plants to remove considerably more CO2 from the air than they do under current conditions. they also reported that “Goulden et al. The second linkage of the feedback loop is the ability of plants to emit gases to the atmosphere that are ultimately converted into “biosols.. the observed reduction in total solar radiation received at the earth’s surface during this period would have had a tendency to reduce the amount of photosynthetically active radiation incident upon earth’s plants. Pinatubo eruption may ! well have resulted in the removal of an extra 2. (1996) showed that net carbon uptake was consistently higher during cloudy periods in a boreal coniferous forest than during sunny periods with the same PPFD [photosynthetic photon flux density]. (2001) provide a good estimate based on the utilization of a unique “natural experiment. and more-highlyproductive. grasslands. (1997). even though total PPFD was 21-45 percent lower on cloudy days than on clear days.. the CO2-induced presence of more. How significant is this multi-link process? Roderick et al.” i. because. aerosols that owe their existence to the biological activities of earth’s vegetation. plants will lead to the production of more of these cloud-mediating particles. which finally produces the end result: a greater biological extraction of CO2 from the air and the subsequent sequestration of its carbon. It takes little imagination to realize that since the existence of these atmospheric particles is dependent upon the physiological activities of plants and their associated soil biota. while CO2-induced increases in plant water use efficiency allow plants to grow where it was previously too dry for them. 1985). The fourth linkage is the ability of enhanced diffuse lighting to reduce the volume of shade within vegetative canopies.e. which would also have had a tendency to cause the air’s CO2 content to rise. The researchers reported that “net carbon uptake (net ecosystem exchange.” and in discussing this finding. which would have reduced the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 concentration that year by about 1. as it would tend to lessen global photosynthetic activity. Pinatubo in June 1991.) This establishes a potential for more CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere by increasing the abundance of earth’s plants and increasing their robustness. they wrote that “Hollinger et al. compliments of the intensified diffuselight-driven increase in total canopy photosynthesis and subsequent transfers of the extra fixed carbon to plant and soil storage reservoirs.5 Gt of carbon from the atmosphere due to its diffuse-lightenhancing stimulation of terrestrial vegetation in the year following the eruption.” More importantly.2 ppm.” a technique that has been used extensively by Idso (1998) to evaluate the climatic sensitivity of the entire planet. while only slightly reducing the receipt of total solar radiation. Fitzjarrald et al. 1993). What makes this observation even more impressive is the fact that the CO2 reduction was coincident with an El Niño event. Significant support for the new negative feedback phenomenon was swift in coming. The third linkage is the observed propensity for increases in aerosols and cloud particles to enhance the amount of diffuse solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface. in the words of Roderick et al. “previous and subsequent such events have been associated with increases in atmospheric CO2. the net of photosynthesis and respiration) was greater under diffuse than under direct radiation conditions.” 31 . (1994) found that daily net CO2 uptake was greater on cloudy days. (See Chapter 7 for extensive documentation of this phenomenon.. Roderick and his colleagues considered the volcanic eruption of Mt. many of which function as cloud condensation nuclei. as the very next year a team of 33 researchers published the results of a comprehensive study (Law et al. Based on a set of lengthy calculations. Interestingly. The fifth linkage is the tendency for less internal canopy shading to enhance whole-canopy photosynthesis. and Sakai et al. which can then result in more clouds which reflect sunlight and act to cool the planet. which is the centerpiece of the negative feedback phenomenon we describe.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! example. they noted that “cloud-cover results in a greater proportion of diffuse radiation and constitutes a higher fraction of light penetrating to lower depths of the canopy (Oechel and Lawrence.

Hence. 2001) together with cloudOne year later. (2003) reported that they free aerosol optical depth data from the NASA “used two independent and direct methods to examine Robotic Network (AERONET. with a peak at about 50 percent cloud assimilation. and corn). 8.2°W) to changes in assimilation of CO2 by three types of vegetation: trees diffuse radiation caused by Mount Pinatubo’s volcanic aerosols. (1990). respectively. going from the set of all DRF values between world-wide after the eruption and strong positive 0.4 to the set of all DRF values between 0. which comprises about 90 percent of year in the study of Niyogi et al. with greater aerosol “Harvard Forest photosynthesis also increases with loading of the atmosphere leading to less CO2 cloud cover. soybeans.? For a summer mid-range Rg flux of 500 “because of substantial increases in diffuse radiation Wm-2. 1993. in addition to set of DRF values “enhances photosynthetic fluxes by likely being global in scope. note that found to be just the opposite. that influence is to significantly radiation received at the earth’s surface may be increase the assimilation of CO2 from the atmosphere. even though the total flux of solar agricultural crops). they further fact that the diffuse-light-induced photosynthetic determined that the shift from the lower to the higher enhancement observed by Gu et al. for example. due most likely.. “around noontime in the mid-growing season. USA.75 x 90 percent = 67. Gu et al. atmospheric aerosol concentration was a singular as earth’s trees are the primary planetary players in significant event—specifically. and grasslands. and fully two-thirds (0. crops 1991. the making them larger carbon sinks. the effect was real-world data.” and that “integrated over a day.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! network (Baldocchi et al. noted that Niyogi et al. we highlighted the Averaged over the entire daylight period.. the group of 16 aerosol burden of the atmosphere is plant-derived.0 and 0. noted that woody plants account for happens under more normal conditions.” finding that in the eruption year of (broadleaf deciduous forest and mixed forest). the aerosols can “routinely influence surface irradiance propensity for the extra diffuse light created by and hence the terrestrial CO2 flux and regional carbon increased cloud cover to further enhance cycle. but that it decreased enhancement for canopy gross photosynthesis by the the net CO2 assimilation of grasslands. to grasslands’ significantly different Although very impressive.” Similar results aerosols acting under cloudless conditions. for eruption—but what we really need to know is what example. in the estimation of cover. 6 percent in smaller carbon sinks. Our were obtained for the mixed forest and the reason for calling attention to these two facts is to conglomerate of crops studied. they concluded clearly distinguish this phenomenon from a closely that natural variability among commonly present related one that is also described by Gu et al.5 percent) of the planet’s net primary production. 1993 and 3 percent in 1994. 2001) to the photosynthetic response of a northern hardwood assess the effect of aerosol loading on the net forest (Harvard Forest. (winter wheat. Based on still more In the case of grasslands. the net effect is decidedly positive.6 effects of diffuse radiation for a variety of vegetation and 1. reduced under such conditions. a massive volcanic the sequestration of carbon. Post et al. however. increased the net CO2 assimilation of trees and crops. and 4 in diffuse radiative-flux fraction [DRF = ratio of percent higher than that under the normal cloudless diffuse (Rd) to total or global (Rg) solar irradiance] solar radiation regime in 1992. however. the gross photosynthetic rate under the perturbed Their work revealed that an aerosol-induced increase cloudless solar radiation regime was 23....” deciduous forest located in Tennessee. researchers used CO2 flux data from the AmeriFlux 32 . those detect the effect of relatively routine aerosol numbers make earth’s trees and shrubs responsible for variability on field measurements of CO2 fluxes. Holben et al. and 1994..5°N. it is likely that our findings at Harvard Forest increase in net CO2 assimilation by a broadleaf represent a global phenomenon. in all of the situations canopy architecture. how does the variability in aerosol loading What is especially exciting about these real-world affect CO2 fluxes over different landscapes?” observations is that much of the commonly-present To answer this question. was caused by volcanic about 30 percent at this study site. if so. Gu et al. 1990).” Commenting on the How significant were the effects observed by significance of these observations. 72.e. Gu et al.” And for these types of land-cover (forests and photosynthesis.0 resulted in an approximate 50 percent types. In the preceding paragraph. With respect to the planet as a discussed above the source of the enhanced whole. This was the approximately 75 percent of terrestrial new and important question addressed the following photosynthesis.” Niyogi et al. 42. (2004): “Can we the global total (Sellers and McCarthy. i. making them volcanic aerosols was 21 percent in 1992.

Chen. Lee.. W. The end result is that earth’s trees and humanity are working hand-in-hand to significantly increase the productivity of the biosphere. Schmid. R.. In: Chabot.K. it is clear that the historical and still-ongoing CO2-induced increase in atmospheric biosols should have had. Slutsker. W. D. Monson. J.. Journal of Geophysical Research 102: 28.J. Munger. T. Verma. a significant cooling effect on the planet that exerts itself by both slowing the rate of rise of the air’s CO2 content and reducing the receipt of solar radiation at the earth’s surface.. Davis.N.F. Neither of these effects is fully and adequately included in any general circulation model of the atmosphere of which we are aware.. B.M. 2001. S. Wilson. Verma. Jarvis. T.A.. D. K. and Wofsy. 1985.. becoming ever more productive. L.S. Chang. D. Munger.. and Xue.. Chatenet. Abuhassan. R. E. M.. Setzer. B. S. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Anthoni. and energy flux densities. A.. Physiological responses of a black spruce forest to weather. Matsui...B. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 113: 97120. G. Spring 1995. Schafer.. Olson.. D. 1995. Michalsky. Wofsy. Carbon dioxide exchange between an undisturbed old-growth temperate forest and the atmosphere... N.. B. CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate change.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! Hence. F. M. T. T.M. S.... D... C. P.... i. X.W. Ecology 75: 134-150.E.. C. Stated another way.php. can be found at http://www. H.. 2004. R. Matteucci. K. 2001. 2002. J. R. References Baldocchi. Alapaty. D. and Mooney..T. 1997. H.. K. Thorgeirsson. S. Granier. F.. Y. Janssens.... E. Voss. Bakwin...co2science.. for as we pump ever more CO2 into the atmosphere. A. Mahli. Goldstein.J.T.. In light of these several observations. Smirnov. D. D. Falge.. D. Hollinger. Pielke Sr. Halthore. O’Neill. Kelliher.. A. J. Newcomb. Baldocchi.. and Boden. Booker... N. Paw U... Dolman. An emerging ground-based aerosol climatology: Aerosol Optical Depth from AERONET. R. H. K.T. B.J. and Wofsy.. Tanré. G.D.. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 12. T. Vesala. K. R. In other words. . in this regard. S125.Y.-I.. Sutton.. D..C. W. 2003. Gu.. and Zibordi.. Paw U. K.097.06712. it can be appreciated that earth’s woody plants are themselves responsible for emitting to the air that which ultimately enhances their own photosynthetic prowess.996.O.R.L. J. Y. R. W. T.D..987-28. and Lawrence..A. N.T. Gu. T...K. K. I. Wilson.. R.A. Fan. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 2415-2434. and should be continuing to have.. Science 299: 20352038.H. Frouin. Malhi. Castle. Law. Davis. Oechel. W. R. A. Falge..H.T..C. Berbigier. F.C. Y. New York. H. Byers. water vapor. K.. J. K. NY.. Pinker... Clark. Hollinger.P.. F... L. Hollinger. J.C. Meyers. P.W.. Munger... K.P. Response of a deciduous forest to the Mount Pinatubo eruption: Enhanced photosynthesis. Vesala. Tiaga. 1998. Sakai. pp. Katul. J. they alter the atmospheric environment in a way that directly enhances their opportunities for greater growth. which leads to even more plant-derived aerosols being released to the atmosphere. Niyogi.-M. A. P. p... G. Falk. W. Grelle. Fitzjarrald. Jensen. Pietras.E. T. Gu. Olson... and Freedman. Munger. Pilegaard.V.. K.e....N. S. Moore. Saxena. A. Assessing the impact of cloud cover on carbon 33 uptake in the northern boreal forest. Fuentes. Evans.J. Oechel. Society helps too. earth’s trees use some of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by society to alter the aerial environment so as to enable them to remove even more CO2 from the air. G. S. Eck. W. K.. EOS Supplement. (Eds. Bazzaz. Oechel..C. Law.F. and Wofsy.D. R. D.. Kaufman. Holt. Urbanski.E. S.. A. S. Meyers.. Bernhofer. Valentini. the globe’s woody plants quickly respond to its aerial fertilization effect. Holben. earth’s trees significantly control their own destiny. A... Daube.. B. Direct observations of the effects of aerosol loading on net ecosystem CO2 exchanges over different landscapes. B. Y.org/ subject/f/feedbackdiffuse.. Karneli. Davis... and Hunt.. Idso.. W..A.W. Katul. Additional information on this topic. 1994.. Baldocchi.J. Oechel. 66-94. FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide.) Physiological Ecology of North American Plant Communities. I.. R. Lavenu. V. P.. T.. Holben.. which stimulates this positive feedback cycle to a still greater degree.. S. A.... B... J. Running. L... B. Environmental controls over carbon dioxide and water vapor exchange of terrestrial vegetation. J. Wilson. Pilegaard. Climate Research 10: 6982.. S. Markham. In: Proceedings of the American Geophysical Union Meeting. Fuentes. R. Wells. Valentini. K.1029/2004GL020915. Chapman & Hall. Goldstein. Meyers. J. Goulden. This is happening in spite of all other insults to the environment that work in opposition to enhanced biological activity.

R.-H. S. Wingenter et al. but opposite in sign. Smythe-Wright et al. Nature Atlantic Ocean and one in the Indian Ocean. D. environmental conditions associated with global Dale. Planet Earth.L. A. tend to feedback). 90-93. (2002). and McCarthy. they note that “changes in cloud albedo particles on the productivity and structure of vegetation. W.” I. they focused “on methyl iodide production and the importance of a biologically related source. The global carbon change. continue.R..4. 2001.R. 1993. seawater. flux of iodine [I] to the marine boundary layer from the 10-member research team discovered “a this single source to be 5. forcing similar in magnitude. On the direct effect of clouds and atmospheric Furthermore. helping to create increase in the release of iodine to the atmosphere. Vol. they suggest that condensable iodine-containing vapors over the open “as ocean waters become warmer and more stratified.. and Noble. D. Moore. Peng.D. K. 1990.” which.” iodocompounds was first described in the pages of Extrapolating their findings to the globe as a Nature by O’Dowd et al.H.” In doing Sellers. (2000).M. as they report. V. as O’Dowd et al. 22. they also demonstrated that concentrations of global warming. “increasing the source rate of condensable iodine vapors will result in an increase in marine aerosol and Roderick. mitigating models.. EOS: Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 71: 1883-1884.” such that “colonization within the particles O’Dowd et al. the six researchers “estimate the global ocean (2002) in an accompanying perspective on their work. T. Emanuel.J.L.. J. W. as previously noted. resulting from changes in CCN concentrations of this Oecologia 129: 21-30.’s team used a smog chamber operated under coastal words. they encountered methyl iodide concentrations as Biosphere. which they report “can account for >80 percent of the variability in the 2.” With the help of aerosol formation in a negative climate feedback mechanism.” fluctuating light level? In: Proceedings of the 22nd Four years later. Atmospheric CO2 stalled. J. (2006) Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology with measured trace gas and pigment concentrations in Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology. because volatile composed largely of iodine oxides. Iodocompounds methyl iodide concentrations.E.” be a regime shift away from microalgae toward The significance of this work is that the aerosol Prochlorococcus.” and because that “new particles can form from condensable “an increase in the production of iodocompounds and iodine-containing vapors.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Post. G. in Smythe-Wright et al.” More specifically.” They add that they “have confirmed the release of methyl iodide by this The climatic significance of iodinated compounds or species in laboratory culture experiments. King. O’Dowd et al. cycle. and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN).” Therefore. How do forest surface fluxes depend on the forcing induced by greenhouse gases. to J.” This occurs in sea air and produces aerosol particles observation is extremely important. pp. picophytoprokaryotes during two ship cruises in the Sarmiento. while identifying and enumerating American Meteorological Society. and DeAngelis.R. and Freedman. as part of the Third Pelagic work of Laturnus et al.K. Farquhar. which demonstrates Ecosystem CO2 Enrichment Study. where 365: 697-698. great as 45 pmol per liter in the top 150 meters of the oceanic water column that correlated well with the abundance of Prochlorococcus. the iodinated compounds.” new clouds that reflect more incoming solar radiation with consequent “important implications for global back to space and thereby cool the planet (a negative climate change.. Berry. “play a part in the formation of new particles atmospheric conditions to demonstrate. so.. American Scientist 78: 310-326.L. As related by Kolb whole. cite the Most recently. Part III. CCN concentrations of the order of 20—60 percent. With respect to the negative feedback counteract global warming. P.. that emissions of iodocarbons from marine biota “can (2007) investigated the effects of atmospheric CO2 increase by up to 5 times as a result of changes in 34 . discovered can function as <50° latitude band will result in a ~15 percent cloud condensation nuclei (CCN).. ocean “are sufficient to influence marine particle nutrient concentrations will fall and there will likely formation.” Specifically. nature of this phenomenon.” which previously unrecognized source of aerosol particles” they say “is a large fraction of the total estimated by unraveling “a photochemical phenomenon that global flux of iodine (1011-1012 g I year-1). M. 1996.L. magnitude can lead to an increase in global radiative Sakai.M.3 x 1011 g I year-1. which are the photolysis the subsequent production of CCN would potentially products of biogenic iodocarbons emitted from result in a net cooling of the earth system and hence marine algae.W. Fitzjarrald. 1990.

Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 10. 2. Zeigler. and Riebesell. Meyerhofer. J. Additional information on this topic. and Hoffmann. Kulmala. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 20: 10. Zhuang.L. Larsen. Laturnus. and that its estimated abundance was 46 percent higher in the 2xCO2 mesocosms and 131 percent higher in the 3xCO2 mesocosms. Smythe-Wright.B. Rowland. C.. Sive. R. as iodocarbons lead to the creation of more highly reflective clouds over greater areas of the world’s oceans. U.R.. and biological parameters along the way.. This work revealed that the iodocarbon chloroiodomethane (CH2CII) experienced its peak concentration about six to 10 days after the coccolithophorid’s chlorophyll-a maximum. K. that changes in cloud albedo “associated with global change” can lead to an increase in global radiative forcing that is “similar in magnitude.1029/2005GB002642.. Flagan. B..C. L. O.” And the finding of O’Dowd et al. three were maintained at levels expected to prevail at the end of the current century (760 ppm or 2xCO2). Wiencke.1029/2006GL028139. Fresenius’ Journal of Analytical Chemistry 368: 297-302. J. Marine aerosol formation from biogenic iodine emissions.. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.. 2003. Paulino. as demonstrated by O’Dowd et al. Cocker III.php. M. New particle formation from photooxidation of diiodomethane (CH2I2). C. H. R.W. M. which accounts for almost half of N2O emissions in some countries (Pipatti.H. C.. Haase. Seinfeld. (2007a) grew mixed stands of timothy (Phleum pratense) and red clover (Trifolium pratense) in sandy-loam-filled mesocosms at low and 35 . R.L. V. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10.. With N2O originating from microbial N cycling in soil— mostly from aerobic nitrification or from anaerobic denitrification (Firestone and Davidson. 2002. In a study designed to investigate this possibility. Dimmer.. the processes described above “may help contribute to the homeostasis of the planet..B.. F. Nitrous Oxide One of the main sources of nitrous oxide (N2O) is agriculture. can be found at http://www. R. S. The international team of scientists concluded that the differences in the CH2CII concentrations “may be viewed as a result of changes to the ecosystems as a whole brought on by the CO2 perturbations. R. During the 25 days of this experiment. Nature 417: 632-636. K.. and three were maintained at levels predicted for the middle of the next century (1150 ppm or 3xCO2). Davidson.. Schulz..” And because emissions of various iodocarbons have been found to lead to an enhancement of cloud condensation nuclei in the marine atmosphere. to the forcing induced by greenhouse gases. Hameri. 2006. Three of these mesocosms were maintained at ambient levels of CO2 (~375 ppm or base CO2). L. B. Wingenter. 2002. In conclusion. 1997).. C... K.1029/2002JD002452. D.C.. Flagan.. References Jimenez. S. T.5. but opposite in sign. Boswell. Jennings. Low-molecular-weight organoiodine and organobromine compounds released by polar macroalgae— The influence of abiotic factors. Methyl iodide production in the ocean: Implications for climate change. Thyrhaug.R.H.. together with increasing N input from other sources. R. Bahreini.C. carefully measuring several physical. Blake. and Hoffmann. A... Pirjola.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! enrichment on marine microorganisms in nine marine mesocosms maintained within two-meter-diameter polyethylene bags submerged to a depth of 10 meters in a fjord at the Large-Scale Facilities of the Biological Station of the University of Bergen in Espegrend.D.. P. Bahreini. Iodine’s air of importance.. J.G. Norway.D.” suggests that CO2induced increases in marine iodocarbon emissions likely contribute to maintaining that homeostasis.. Varutbangkul.D. Jimenez. Giese. will increase substrate availability for denitrifying bacteria and may result in higher N2O emissions from agricultural soils as the air’s CO2 content continues to rise. O’Dowd. (2002) and Jimenez et al... J.S.. Seinfeld. F. and Adams. F. Kettunen et al.. and Eiras Diaz. the researchers followed the development and subsequent decline of an induced bloom of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi.M. Nature 417: 597-598. D. 2007. M. Kolb.C. T. 2000. 1989)—there is a concern that CO2-induced increases in carbon input to soil. D. chemical. A. Breithaupt. (2003). Unexpected consequences of increasing CO2 and ocean acidity on marine production of DMS and CH2CII: Potential climate impacts.H.co2science. C.E. O’Dowd.org/ subject/f/feedbackiodo. as Wingenter et al.. it can be appreciated that the CO2-induced stimulation of the marine emissions of these substances provides a natural brake on the tendency for global warming to occur as a consequence of any forcing. sum things up.

46 percent and of the two plots for a period of 18 months. pratense were 22 percent and 18 (USA). they report that “the exclusion al.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! to the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration was moderate soil nitrogen levels within greenhouses maintained at either 360 or 720 ppm CO2. the researchers found that after in increased N2O or N-gas emissions with either emergence of the mixed stand and during vegetative ample or limited irrigation.” which further suggests enhanced biomass production without a simultaneous increase in the N2O fluxes. In addition. and final trees so as to dramatically reduce the amount of rain above. (2002) for Colorado shortgrass steppe. (2004) devised an sandy-soil-filled mesocosms located within experiment to determine the consequences of the greenhouses maintained at atmospheric CO2 drying of the soil of an Amazonian moist tropical concentrations of either 360 or 720 ppm for a period forest for the net surface-to-air fluxes of both N2O of 3.” increase in the frequency and/or intensity of El Niño In a similar study. 14 years. Kettunen et al. while still enhancing the yield possibility that the climate of the Amazon Basin may production [via the aerial fertilization effect of gradually become drier due to a warming-induced elevated CO2] even under low N fertilizer additions. it was Mosier et al.” not until the water table had been raised and extra In discussing the implications of their findings. pratense and T. possibility of maintaining N2O emissions at their In a different type of study—driven by the current level. they levels. exchange of the ecosystems (which phenomenon was Prior to making this modification. respectively. and high (1. This work revealed that the “drier soil percent.” In fact.and below-ground biomass production over that reached the forest floor (throughfall). The study found “elevated CO2 did not result percent. Brazil. in the low and moderate soil N the 1998 and 1999 summer growing seasons at the treatments. describe as being “consistent with findings for N2O fluxes were higher under ambient CO2 in both unirrigated western U.5 times standard) soil N supply. Arizona enhancements for T.S. 27 percent.” Welzmiller et al. Kettunen et consumption. In this experiment the maintaining an otherwise similar one-hectare plot of elevated CO2 concentration increased the net CO2 land as a control for comparison. while it increased the abovecontinued their measurements for an additional three ground biomass of the crop by about 8 percent. moderate and high conditions caused by throughfall exclusion inhibited soil N levels. report that “an explicit increase in N2O fluxes due manipulation lowered annual N2O emissions by >40 percent and increased rates of consumption of 36 .” thereby raising “the there will not be an increased impetus for global warming due to this phenomenon. The four Finnish researchers thus concluded that the concentrations increase. while not found. and 8 percent at the low.5 months at moderate (standard). (2007b) grew events that have historically brought severe drought to timothy (Phleum pratense) in monoculture within the region—Davidson et al. and methane (CH4). In fact. pratense was “able increases in denitrification in C4 cropping to utilize the increased supply of atmospheric CO2 for environments such as irrigated sorghum in the desert southwestern United States. moderate. there will not be major mixed stand of P. This work revealed that the total [Sorghum bicolor (L. And once again. (2002) for Mojave Desert soils and by the low and moderate soil N treatments. while the course of three harvests. then. say their results suggest that “as CO2 elevated CO2 seemed to increase N2O fluxes. and its below-ground biomass by 28 N2O and CH4 production and promoted CH4 percent. (2008) measured N2O and measuring harvestable biomass production and N2O evolution from the mesocosm soils over the course of denitrification emission rates in a C4 sorghum three crop cuttings. and 41 percent at the same respective soil N levels.” which findings they growth before the first harvest and N fertilization. and control (seasonal mean = 396 ppm) CO2 during respectively. vegetative net CO2 exchange. ecosystems reported by Billings et al. pratense was with ample and limited flood irrigation rates under enhanced by the experimental doubling of the air’s Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (seasonal mean = 579 ppm) CO2 concentration by 21 percent and 26 percent. low (halfstandard).) Moench] production system harvestable biomass production of P. and high soil N initiating the throughfall-exclusion treatment. while corresponding biomass experimental FACE site near Maricopa. the three primarily driven by CO2-induced increases in researchers measured the gas exchange characteristics photosynthesis) by about 30 percent. by modifying a one-hectare plot of land covered by mature evergreen mesocosms. This they did in the Tapajos while they measured the evolution of N2O from the National Forest near Santarem. fertilization given after the first harvest that the Welzmiller et al. after 34 percent at the low.

Saarnio. and N2O in the Colorado shortgrass steppe under elevated CO2.) Exchange of Trace Gases Between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere. In summation. R. (Eds. Suomen metaani-ja dityppioksidipaastojen rajoittamisen mahdollisuudet ja kustannustehokkuus. who studied batches of rice growing in large vats filled with topsoil and placed within greenhouse tunnels maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 350 and 700 ppm.J. and Davidson. Espoo.. the ongoing rise in the air’s carbon dioxide (CO2) content and a number of other contemporary environmental trends have on the atmosphere’s methane (CH4) concentration? The implications of this question are huge because methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas.D. 2002. and nitric oxide in a moist tropical forest. and (2) a huge drying-induced increase in the consumption of CH4 by its soils. Wiley.K.. Ishida.1. which would enable the forest to continue to flourish under significantly drier conditions than those of the present. Chichester.Y. E. envisage a more extreme second phase response “in which droughtinduced plant mortality is followed by increased mineralization of C and N substrates from dead fine roots and by increased foraging of termites on dead coarse roots” (an extreme response that would be expected to increase N2O and CH4 emissions). Soil Science Society of America Journal 72: 393-401. Plant and Soil 240: 201-211. Kettunen. J.M. R. and Thompson. N2O fluxes and CO2 exchange at different N doses under elevated CO2 concentration in boreal agricultural mineral soil under Phleum pratense. A. Martikainen. Pipatti. and Nepstad.A. S. Soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4. D. due to the documented tendency for atmospheric CO2 enrichment to greatly increase the water use efficiency of essentially all plants. D. Kettunen. Its atmospheric concentration is determined by the difference between how much CH4 goes into the air (emissions) and how much comes out of it (extractions) over the same time period. and Evans. Effects of an experimental drought on soil emissions of carbon dioxide.D. NOX... it would appear that concerns about additional global warming arising from enhanced N2O emissions from agricultural soils in a CO2-enriched atmosphere of the future are not well founded. J. J. Additional information on this topic.A. if global warming would indeed increase the frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events as some claim it will. Schaeffer. and methanotrophy. and Schimel. D. King. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. R. molecule for molecule.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! atmospheric CH4 by a factor of >4.6.T.. Can a mixed stand of N2-fixing and non-fixing plants restrict N2O emissions with increasing CO2 concentration? Soil Biology & Biochemistry 39: 25382546. F. Saarnio.G. we note that the projected rise in the air’s CO2 content would likely prohibit such a thing from ever occurring. T.. Mosier. Methane What impact do global warming.C.. Firestone. A.L. Global Change Biology 10: 718730. R. 2008. White. Morgan. In: Andreae. Microbiological basis of NO and N2O production and consumption in soil. D. Matthias. M. 62 pp. nearly all of which forces are ignored by the IPCC. and Milchunas. S. P. J. M.” Consequently. nitrous oxide. Trace N gas losses and mineralization in Mojave Desert soils exposed to elevated CO2. LeCain.R.. 2. 2004. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 78: 197-209. methane. S.Y.org/ subject/n/nitrousoxide. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 34: 1777-1784. and Silvola.. each of 37 . 1997. There are significant forces at play that will likely produce a large negative feedback toward the future warming potential of this powerful greenhouse gas. Davidson. CO2.. than is carbon dioxide. S. 2007a. Welzmiller. 2002. methanogenesis.S. pp. Extraction Early indications that atmospheric CO2 enrichment might significantly reduce methane emissions associated with the production of rice were provided by Schrope et al. S. and Silvola. 2. 2007b. 1989.6. Elevated carbon dioxide and irrigation effects on soil nitrogen gas exchange in irrigated sorghum.co2science. can be found at http://www. J. the results of this study suggest that the anticipated drying of the Amazon Basin would initiate a strong negative feedback via (1) large drying-induced reductions in the evolution of both N2O and CH4 from its soils. E.A. Although Davidson et al. (1999).A.” which results they attributed to the “direct effect of soil aeration on denitrification.O. 7-21.php References Billings. 1835. VTT tiedotteita.

” With such a dramatically percent decline in the ruminants’ production of different result from that of Schrope et al. they on CH4 emission. and Inubushi et al. reducing CH4 emissions from dairy cows include the 38 . Lindau et al. doubling the air’s CO2 content significantly enhanced rice biomass production in this Lelieveld.. field by an elevated CH4 production. with respect to the effects of from Oryza sativa [rice] plants grown under elevated CO2 on methane emissions.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! A somewhat related study was conducted by which tunnels was further subdivided into four Kruger and Frenzel (2003). With of this fact. a study of laboratory experiments we conclude that any the same phenomenon by a different set of scientists agricultural praxis improving the N-supply to the rice yielded a different result in a different set of plants will also be favourable for the CH4 oxidising circumstances. 1997. 2001). Schrope et al. percent to meet the demands of the growing human However. stated that their results “unequivocally support the 1990). could find none. many more methane when using fish-oil additives containing n-3studies likely will be required to determine which of eicosapentanoic acid. conditions of elevated CO2 were dramatically reduced therefore. 1996). and oxidation in rice report that “both increased carbon dioxide and culture in laboratory. Crutzen and would be expected. As effects of fertilization on CH4 emissions. With respect to cattle. 1997. Boadi et these results is the more typical of rice culture around al. during this study...” and to be doubly sure both elevated CO2 and increased N-fertilization. observing a maximal 80 under FACE conditions. 1996. production. (2003) studied the effects of various result of increased root exudates and root autolysis types and levels of fish-oil feed additives on this products and to the increased plant-mediated CH4 process by means of both in vitro and in vivo emission because of the higher rice tiller numbers experiments with sheep. consequences for the overall global warming potential They found that the extra CO2 “significantly could be found. population (Cassman et al.” Schrope et al. 1998). they went on to replicate their experiment respect to their own study. however. Singh et al.” Indeed. there may well be little to no change in relative to plants gown in comparable conditions overall CH4 emissions from rice fields in response to under ambient levels of CO2. describe it..” which phenomenon fermentation of feed in the rumen of cattle and sheep. methane emissions al..” The implication Iwate.” and that “during the next 30 years system. for example. “the results of this study did not support our hypothesis that an effect of both To help promote that discussion. who note that “rice sections that provided temperature treatments ranging paddies contribute approximately 10-13 percent to the from ambient to as much as 5°C above ambient. microcosm and field increased temperatures were observed to produce experiments they conducted at the Italian Rice decreased methane emissions. (2003) grew a different cultivar of transient influence and was counter-balanced in the rice in 1999 and 2000 in paddy culture at Shizukuishi.” similar to the polarized findings of Schrope et conclusion that..” while “methanogenesis In checking for potential problems with their and CH4 emission was found to be inhibited in others experiment. Schutz et al.” Because of these methane emissions from the rice grown at 700 ppm facts they further note that “increasing amounts of CO2 were found to be 10 to 45 times less than fertilizer will have to be applied to maximize yields [and] there is ongoing discussion on the possible emissions from the plants grown at 350 ppm. 1989. microcosm and the same results.” except for the first Research Institute in northern Italy. Kruger and in a second year of sampling and obtained essentially Frenzel say that “combining our field. Four years later. In the mean. in a truly unanticipated development.” increased the CH4 [methane] emissions by 38 percent Another agricultural source of methane is the in 1999 and 51 percent in 2000. 1981. they attributed to “accelerated CH4 production as a Fievez et al. (2004) report that existing mitigation strategies for the world. Japan in a FACE study where the air’s CO2 of these findings is well articulated in the concluding sentence of their paper: “neither positive nor negative concentration was increased 200 ppm above ambient. Kruger and increased carbon dioxide and temperature would be Frenzel investigated the effects of N-fertilizer (urea) an increase in methane emissions.” noting that “N-fertilisation had only a Inubushi et al.. As global CH4 emission (Neue. which produced a slight in some prior studies “N-fertilisation stimulated CH4 increase in methane evolution from the plant-soil emissions (Cicerone and Shetter. bacteria. system. They thus (Cai et al. Banik et al. They report that 2°C increase above ambient. increasing it by up to 35 percent aboverice production has to be increased by at least 60 ground and by up to 83 percent below-ground.

At the conclusion of their study. (2004) also reported that climate models predict increases in evapotranspiration that could lead to drying in a warming world and a subsequent lowering of water tables in high northern latitudes. they measured the amount of CH4 emitted by the plant foliage. along with net CO2 assimilation rate and stomatal conductance. where the average maximum potential CH4 reduction that may result from the implementation of each strategy is 30 percent or more. they determined that the “growing season CH4 emissions at the drained site were 55 percent lower than the control site. since atmospheric CO2 enrichment 39 .” The greatest reductions (up to 97 percent) were measured at the higher locations. Such highefficiency approaches to reducing the strength of the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect. 1995) and Carex (Morrissey et al. while newer mitigation strategies include “the addition of probiotics.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! addition of ionophores and fats to their food. With as many as 20 different mitigation strategies from which to choose.” To this end. should be at the top of any program designed to achieve that difficult (but still highly questionable) objective. Canada. Peltandra virginica L. archaeal viruses. all of which are native to eastern North America. [and] plant extracts (e. which were made to vary by changing the CO2 concentration of the air surrounding the plants and the density of the photosynthetic photon flux impinging on them. but the researchers found that changes in stomatal conductance affected foliage methane flux “three times more than equivalent changes in net CO2 assimilation. while not reducing the biological benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the process.g. as well as immunization. Roulet et al. by implication. In addition. they note that evidence of stomatal control of CH4 emission has also been reported for Typha latifolia (Knapp and Yavitt. 1993).” indicative of the fact that the biosphere appears to be organized to resist warming influences that could push it into a thermal regime that might otherwise prove detrimental to its health. Hence. while at the lower locations there was little change in CH4 flux. at various times over the period 2001-2003 Strack et al. Strack et al. measured CH4 fluxes to the atmosphere at different locations that varied in depth-to-water table within natural portions of a poor fen in central Quebec. bacteriocins. and Juncus effusus L. in a five-to-one mixture of well-fertilized mineral soil and peat moss in pots submerged in water in tubs located within controlled environment chambers for a period of eight weeks.. organic acids. In a theoretical study of the subject. and genetic selection of cows. essential oils) to the diet. (2005) grew seedlings of three emergent aquatic macrophytes (Orontium aquaticum L. which results suggest that a global warming-induced drying of the Amazon Basin would initiate a strong negative feedback to warming via (1) large dryinginduced reductions in the evolution of N2O and CH4 from its soils and (2) a huge drying-induced increase in the consumption of CH4 by its soils.) plus one coniferous tree (Taxodium distichum L. (1992) calculated that for a decline of 14 cm in the water tables of northern Canadian peatlands.). the Canadian scientists reported that “methane emissions and storage were lower in the drained fen. due to climate-model-derived increases in temperature (3°C) and precipitation (1mm/day) predicted for a doubling of the air’s CO2 content. CH4 emissions would decline by 74-81 percent.. Garnet et al.” making stomatal conductance the more significant of the two CH4 emission-controllers. In a contemporaneous study. Methane emissions from the four wetland species increased linearly with increases in both stomatal conductance and net CO2 assimilation rate. which could take a huge bite out of methane-induced global warming.. In an attempt to obtain some experimental data on the subject. This prediction cries out for an analysis of how lowered water tables will affect peatland emissions of CH4. Averaged over all locations. Concomitantly. as well as within control portions of the fen that had been drained eight years earlier. each one of which (on average) has the potential to reduce CH4 emissions from dairy cows by as much as a third.. In view of these several observations. (2004) in our Nitrous Oxide section. acetogens. But do methane emissions from natural vegetation respond in a similar way? We have already discussed the results of Davidson et al. we can be cautiously optimistic about our agricultural intervention capabilities and their capacity to help stem the tide of earth’s historically rising atmospheric methane concentration. as well as the use of high-quality forages and grains in their diet. the host of other ruminants that mankind raises and uses for various purposes around the world. In another experimental study. two other important wetland plants. they provide a table of 20 such strategies. it would appear there is a tremendous potential to dramatically curtail the amount of CH4 released to the atmosphere by these ruminants and.

Siberian Branch of increase in net CO2 assimilation. should al. that “soils means by which methane is removed from the under hardwood species (aspen and birch) consumed atmosphere is via oxidation by methanotrophic CH4 at higher rates than soils under coniferous bacteria in the aerobic zones of soils. can be found at http://www. under high soil observed in soils of tundra (Whalen and Reeburgh. This soil sink for methane hardwood species consumed 35 percent more CH4 appears to be ubiquitous. Saari et al. seasons of the year. under the heading of Isoprene.co2science. would produce two warming.” Consequently.. Another study that deals with this topic is that of (which is increased) and stomatal conductance (which Menyailo and Hungate (2003). and http://www. tropical forests (Keller.. 1997). in the words of Menyailo grasslands (Mosier et al. Prieme and also lead to a significant removal of methane from the Christensen.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! ratio that typically results from atmospheric CO2 leads to approximately equivalent—but oppositely directed—changes in foliar net CO2 assimilation enrichment. that “changes in temperature and and Olsen. Hence. it can be Scots pine. we can strongly—positively correlated with the C/N ratio of expect to see a significant increase in the rate of the cypress plantations’ soil organic matter. the magnitude of which phenomenon is believed to be equivalent to species and grassland. (2003) studied methane uptake rates by providing yet another biologically mediated negative the soils of three Japanese cypress plantations feedback factor that has yet to be incorporated into composed of 30. as the air’s CO2 content—and absorption was additionally—and even more possibly its temperature—continues to rise. which these results.1. Based on methane removal from earth’s atmosphere.... as methane uptake has been than the soils under the four conifers. as explained in been observed in several other studies (Peterjohn et Section 7. birch..org/ increase in methane uptake from the atmosphere that is experienced by essentially all soils. which. Dobbie and Smith. 1990). 1992). Through all models of global climate change. 1992). boreal forests (Whalen et al. we note that increases in the air’s CO2 absorbed by the soils of all three sites. 40 . 1998). it can be appreciated that any global should help to reduce the potential for further global warming. 1989. 1994. and deserts (Striegl et al.. because of the threeafforestation experiment. 2001).” Under low soil moisture the annual input of methane to the atmosphere conditions.. Yavitt et al. According to Prinn et al. Post (1988) have suggested.co2 that is produced by the increase in plant-litter C/N science. Additional information on this topic. 1996). one of the major 2002). for example. being concentration will likely lead to a net reduction in positively correlated with temperature.org/subject/m/methaneag. including biologically mediated negative feedbacks to counter reviews of newer publications as they become the increase in temperature: (1) a warming-induced available. temperate As for the implications of these findings. CO2-induced or natural. methane consumption by soils and a reduction in In an attempt to learn more about this subject. in which the six common times-greater negative CH4 emission impact of the boreal tree species had been grown under common garden conditions for the past 30 years under the decrease in stomatal conductance compared to the watchful eye of the staff of the Laboratory of Soil positive CH4 emission impact of the equivalent Science of the Institute of Forest. They determined. they found that methane was Last. 1992). precipitation resulting from increasing atmospheric Singh et al.to 40-year-old trees.co2science increase in soil methane uptake from the atmosphere . as has also vegetative isoprene emissions. Methane atmosphere. Pastor and forests (Steudler et al. 1998). thereby Tamai et al. the soils under the two (Watson et al. who assessed the is reduced) in most herbaceous plants (which are the influence of six boreal forest species—spruce. 1996)— America. it will likely lead to an increase in Mer and Roger. the Russian Academy of Sciences (Menyailo et al. CO2 concentrations will cause a northward migration with forest soils—especially boreal and temperate of the hardwood-conifer forest border in North forest upland soils (Whalen and Reeburgh. http://www. aspen. and Arolla pine—on soil appreciated that the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 CH4 consumption in the Siberian artificial content should be acting to reduce methane emissions from earth’s wetland vegetation. type that comprise most wetlands). 1997). in their words.php. larch.php. (1992). arable lands (Jensen and Hungate.. moisture conditions they consumed 65 percent more. and (2) an subject/m/methaneextract. 1990). methane-induced global warming potential.php. if such a shifting of species appearing to be the most efficient in this regard (Le does indeed occur.. 1997.org/subject/m/methagnatural. 1986.7.

Reichardt. CH4 and N2O fluxes in the Colorado shortgrass steppe. K. Tree species mediated soil chemical changes in a Siberian artificial afforestation experiment.. 1997.. Jensen. C. Moutinho.C. and Lelieveld. W. W.K. Verissimo. Kobayashi. 2003. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 29: 1165-1172. Knapp. and Livingston.M.. Nature 398: 505-508. CH4. P. W. D.D. D.T. Pastor. A. 1998. M. S. 1981. and nitric oxide in a moist tropical forest. Response of northern forests to CO2-induced climate change. Cochrane. K. D.802. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 29: 17-45. Davidson. Xu. and Sen. Aonuma. Animal Feed Science and Technology 104: 41-58. Human impacts on atmospheric chemistry.. Boadi..C. Nobre. Interactive effects of tree species and soil moisture on methane consumption. S.N. D. 1997.K. Atmospheric methane consumption in adjacent arable and forest soil systems.. Peterjohn. Dobbie. C. O.A. K. G. Emissions of N2O. 1998. Steudler.H. Fievez. A. Sen.A. Z. Cheng. E.J. 1999. 1996. Biology and Fertility of Soils 21: 319-322. 2003. D. Mosier. Plant and Soil 196: 7-14.E. and Christensen. M. J.. Chiquette. R. and Frenzel. Olk. Miura. methane. 2004. and Shetter. H. and Singh..P. Chemosphere 26: 339-356.. P. Parton. Long-term impact of land use change.W. Potter. D. A. 2002.. Gas exchange characteristics of Typha latifolia L. and Nepstad. and consequences for CH4 emissions from microcosms and rice fields. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 11: 29-42. Global Change Biology 10: 718730. J. and methane emission from lowland rice.Y. Kim. Journal of Geophysical Research 91: 11.. P. W. Soil Science Society of America Journal 54: 1789-1794. Measurements in rice paddies and a discussion. from nine sites across North America. Aquatic Botany 49: 203-215. Lefebvre.. Dohme. Hoque.A. Ecological Applications 4: 617-625.V. Aquatic Botany 81: 141-155. DeLaune. E. Morrissey.M. H. Schimel. Ishida.P. P. 1988. 2. Comparison of CH4 oxidation rates in woodland. Peng. Keller.C.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! References Banik. Field Crops Research 56: 7-39. Cai. W. oxidation. E. 2005. Mitigation strategies to reduce enteric methane emissions from dairy cows: Update review. G.... H. nitrous oxide. K. B. 1993. Fertilizer effects on dinitrogen.B.S. arable and set aside soils.. European Journal of Soil Biology 37: 25-50. V. C. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 28: 1357-1365. Neue. and Masse. J. O. Menyailo. D. Inubushi. and Okada.. and Smith. Valentine. Seasonal and spatial variation of methane oxidation in a Danish spruce forest.J. J.A. Ladha. 1986.. 1995. Menyailo. 2001. X. Global Change Biology 9: 773-784. and Olsen. A. and Minami. Schlesinger. Le Mer.. C. Benchaar.. Xing. Megonigal. Sources of atmospheric methane. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 35: 625-628. 41 . Effects of an experimental drought on soil emissions of carbon dioxide. and Heinemeyer. F. V. H. Effects of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) on CH4 emission from a rice paddy field.. F.). Litchfield. D..A. Journal of Geophysical Research 86: 72037209..M. A. Patrick Jr. J.. K. and Zech. Production.. Kruger.V. Effects of N-fertilisation on CH4 oxidation and production..A.M. Nature 334: 55-58.E. D. 1996.. et al. Melillo. and Roger.A. Lima. R. O. Canadian Journal of Animal Science 84: 319-335. Prieme.. and Post. K. Yogi. Zobel... C. Garnet.791-11. S. 2001. Doberman. 1997.G. and CO2 from tropical forest soils. 2004. emission and consumption of methane by soils: a review. M.W. Plant and Soil 242: 171182.D. 1990. and Brooks.. Mendoza.. Fluxes of methane from rice fields and potential for mitigation. A. Opportunities for increased nitrogen-use efficiency from improved resource management in irrigated rice systems. K.. Fish oils as potent rumen methane inhibitors and associated effects on rumen fermentation in vitro and in vivo. L.U. Significance of stomatal control of methane release from Carex-dominated wetlands. and Yavitt. U. Hungate. Ojima. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 30: 1187-1193. 1997.. K. Lindau.. 2003. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice paddy fields as affected by nitrogen fertilizers and water management. P. Danneels. P. Nepstad. W. Alencar. and Demeyer.S. G. Soil Use and Management 13: 258-267. Physiological control of leaf methane emission from wetland plants. Cicerone. S. and Taylor Jr.J.. Tsuruta. J. J. Responses of trace gas fluxes and N availability to experimentally elevated soil temperatures.. M. 1994. A.. K. Crutzen. Yan.. R. S. B. P. Global Change Biology 9: 1458-1464. M.. W. Effects of inorganic fertilizers and micronutrients on methane production from wetland rice (Oryza sativa L.R.. S.. and Hungate. J.Y... D.. and Newkirk. M. K. J. 2003.P.. Cassman. M.. Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire. nitrous oxide. Raes.

Journal of Geophysical Research 94: 16405-16416. and Tuittila. Nature 357: 145-147. P. Holzapfel-Pschorrn. R. Singh. P.K. pp. Global average concentration and trend for hydroxyl radicals deduced from ALE/GAGE trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) data for 1978-1990. 1992. R.C. Watson. We begin with Figure 2. Simmonds.C. Whalen. and Janetos. T. A. Gutzler. Yavitt. CH4 consumption in two temperate forest soils. Nature 341: 314-316. season. Saari. Takenaka. N. Steudler. Consumption of atmospheric methane by desert soils.. most of which feedbacks are enhanced as the air’s CO2 concentration rises. and Varney. Schrope.1.6. even though their own data bore witness against them. Heiskanen. J. Moisture and temperature sensitivity of CH4 oxidation in boreal soils.G. Raghubanshi. Boldi. and Rasmussen. Nature 346: 160-162... Reeburgh.. Journal of Geophysical Research 97: 2445-2461. T. Methane flux and regulatory variables in soils of three equal-aged Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) forests in central Japan. A. (Eds.. Raghubanshi. A. and Barber. Figure 2. 2003.A.. R. C. and Reeburgh. M. Schutz. Singh. F... Soil Biology & Biochemistry 28: 1271-1281.. Sanhueza. 1992. R. Crawford.M. Downey..M.B. A.1.1029/2003GB002209.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Prinn.. J. Methane flux from rice/wheat agroecosystem as affected by crop phenology. J.C. time. Plant and Soil 183: 323-327. L. Bowden. Biogeochemistry 16: 181-211. A.P.. UK..J.S. 1997. et al. D. V. (2002). and fertilizer treatment on methane emission rates from an Italian rice paddy. R.. D. Sources and sinks. R. That those feedbacks may already be operating and having a significant impact on global methane concentrations is illustrated in a discussion of observed atmospheric methane trends. FEMS Microbiology Ecology 26: 245-255. Cambridge University Press. V. J. Whalen.K.T. 1990. 42 .G.. Whalen. Moore. Strack. T.C.2. D. 1992.. A 3-year continuous record on the influence of daytime. carbon and moisture on methane uptake by dry tropical forest soils. and Woodward. The authors contended it was “premature to believe” the rate of growth was falling. 1992. M. J.K.T. J. D.. S. and Reddy. 1996. B. Hartley. J. Meira Filho.. P. Consumption of atmospheric methane by tundra soils. Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to The IPCC Scientific Assessment.T.).S.S. Influence of nitrogen fertilization on CH4 uptake in temperate forest soils.H. In: Houghton. Northern fens: Methane flux and climatic change. 25-46. 1998. Plant and Soil 196: 115-121. S. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 35: 633-641.. W.6. and Reeburgh. R. Singh...A.. we reported on several real-world phenomena that can act to reduce or extract methane (CH4) from the atmosphere.. Bubier.2.6. Concentrations In Section 2. Oxidation of methane in boreal forest soils: a comparison of seven measures.J. (2002). S. and Baker.S.D. Rosen. Kashyap. W.D.. 2004. S. J.S. Thorstensen. 1990. McConnaughey. A. and Sextone. Callander. Pinatubo in June 1991 (Bekki et al.A. Weeks... Martikainen.S. Effect of water table drawdown on northern peatland methane dynamics: Implications for climate change. Fraser.2. 1999.. Conrad.M. D. Lang. 2. Adapted from Simpson et al.. J. S. S. Effect of soil nitrogen. Cambridge.P. Tellus Series B 44: 100-105. and Aber. the graph of realworld data from Simpson et al. P. E. D...C.. Meillo. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18: 10. et al. Waddington. Effect of the organic horizon on methane oxidation and uptake in soil of a boreal Scots pine forest.1. and Lafleur. Tamai. S.S. Effect of CO2 enrichment and elevated temperature on methane emissions from rice.. 1992. W. A. Biogeochemistry 9: 39-52. J. Singh.. 1996. Chanton. S. which clearly shows a linear-trend decline in CH4 growth rates since the mid-1980s. E. The first of the 1990s’ large CH4 spikes is widely recognized as having been caused by the eruption of Mt.6. L. Ishizuka. fertilization and water level. J. 1994... Striegl. Cunnold..E. H. and Tezuka..S. E. Alyea.-S. N. R. 1989. A.A.. Global tropospheric methane (CH4) growth rate vs. P. Roulet. Oryza sativa. Global Change Biology 5: 587-599. Singh. 1989. Allen. J.

and Lassey et al. Francey et al. Khalil et al. (1998). (2003).2. to no yearly CH4 increase.2.” and they go on to say that “it is questionable whether human activities can cause methane concentrations to increase greatly in the future.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! Dlugokencky et al. 1997). Based on measurements from 43 globally distributed remote boundary-layer sites that were obtained by means of the methods of Dlugokencky et al. As noted earlier. With respect to these data. note that the globally averaged atmospheric methane concentration “was constant at ~1751 ppb from 1999 through 2002. 43 .. that “our understanding is still not sufficient to tell if the prolonged pause in CH4 increase is temporary or permanent.. time. from which they calculated global CH4 concentration averages for the years 1984-2002.2. Dlugokencky et al. the three Oregon (USA) researchers combined two huge atmospheric methane datasets to produce the unified dataset depicted in Figure 2.” which suggests.” We agree. that “during this 4-year period the global methane budget has been at steady state. in their words.” Figure 2. it will likely be followed by a decrease in CH4 concentration. Dlugokencky et al. while the last and most dramatic of the spikes has been linked to the remarkably strong El Niño of 1997-98 (Dlugokencky et al. We have extracted the results from their graphical presentation and replotted them as shown in Figure 2. Adapted from Khalil et al.6. we feel confident in suggesting that if the recent pause in CH4 increase is indeed temporary.3. As Khalil et al.6. however. Adapted from Dlugokencky et al.2. 2001). to which we have added the smooth line. 1996. it is clear that the rate of methane increase in the atmosphere has dropped dramatically over time.” They caution. since that would be the next logical step in the observed progression from significant. (2007).3. (2000) have all suggested that the annual rate-of-rise of the atmosphere’s CH4 concentration is indeed declining and leading to a cessation of growth in the atmospheric burden of methane. (1999). In viewing this graph.2.2. (1994). Global methane (CH4) concentration. to much smaller. (2007) essentially “put the nails in the coffin” of the idea that rising atmospheric CH4 concentrations pose any further global warming threat at all.6. “the trend has been decreasing for the last two decades until the present when it has reached near zero. One year later. However. describe it. Global tropospheric methane (CH4) concentration vs. (2003) revisited the subject with an additional two years’ of data. Figure 2. Dlugokencky et al.6. In their study. Lowe et al. Schnell and Dlugokencky (2008) provided an update through 2007 of atmospheric methane concentrations as determined from weekly discrete samples collected on a regular basis since 1983 at the NOAA/ESRL Mauna Loa Observatory. they defined an evenly spaced matrix of surface CH4 mole fractions as a function of time and latitude..

Dlugokencky.S. both networks measured even larger methane Our adaptation of the graphical rendition of the data growth rate increases of approximately 13 ppb per provided by the authors is presented in Figure 2.. and Australian researchers’ concluding statement that the methane growth rate during 2007 “was significantly elevated at all AGAGE and CSIRO sites simultaneously for the first time in almost a decade. before dropping back to zero at the beginning of the new millennium.” there is also reassurance in the recent findings. over the past decade there have been essentially no increases in methane emissions to the atmosphere. they say that “the increase in greenhouse gases. and Tans. Nature 371: 595-597. E. L. year. P. Additional reassurance in this regard comes from the work of Simpson et al. unclear”—has resulted in a one-third reduction in the because.co2science.. P. methane since the preindustrial era is responsible for Additional information on this topic.2.” available. 2003. Lang.” This is a most important finding. measured at Mauna Loa..J.” In addition.org/ Most recently. 1998. the findings of whom we reproduced previously in Figure 2. and Pyle. including direct and been produced by a continuation of the prior rates-ofindirect effects. S... Dlugokencky.G. UK.4. P. as well as by the US. and Madronich.. methane data obtained from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) over the period January 1997 to April 2008.P. for example. Novelli. K. Houweling. We note.. Nature 393: 447-450.1. E. occurred in still earlier years. P. P.P.. Continuing decline in the growth rate of the atmospheric methane burden. “methane’s contribution to combined radiative forcing that would otherwise have anthropogenic radiative forcing.4. Dutton. Changes in CH4 and CO growth rates after the eruption of Mt. K. Pinatubo and their link with changes in tropical tropospheric UV flux. Rigby et al. Dlugokencky.M. (2002). Geophysical Research Letters 23: 2761-2764. Masarie. As can be seen there. as they also note.6. Trace gas mole fractions of methane (CH4) as which has yet to be determined.B. Hawaii. Law. is about 0.. that near the end of 1998 and the beginning 44 References Bekki. the identity of Figure 2. S.J. these periodic one-year-long upward spikes in methane growth rate must be the result of some normal phenomenon.2. S.7 Wm-2. J.php.. . (2008) analyzed subject/m/methaneatmos. and Tans. Adapted from Schnell and In light of these finding. Masarie.6.O. about half that of rise of the concentrations of the two atmospheric CO2.. in the “atmospheric CH4 has remained nearly constant since words of Schnell and Dlugokencky.1029/2003GL018126. 1996. can be found at http://www. Lantz. 1994. Tans. The results of their analysis indicated that methane concentrations “show renewed growth from the end of 2006 or beginning of 2007 until the most recent measurements. K.C. Although some people might be alarmed by these findings. Lang. E.P. J. K.J. Masarie.A. Miller. Atmospheric methane levels off: Temporary pause or a new steady-state? Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. even greater methane growth rates than those observed by Rigby et al. Effect of ozone depletion on atmospheric CH4 and CO concentrations.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! of 1999.A.6.. Schnell and Dlugokencky state that concentration—the exact causes of which.M. In commenting on the data contained in the and that the leveling out of the atmosphere’s methane figure above. P.2.A.” with the record-long range of methane growth rates mostly hovering about zero. E. including approximately one-half the estimated increase in reviews of newer publications as they become background tropospheric O3 during that time. “are still the late 1990s. And we note that the most current displayed data from the two networks indicate the beginning of what could well be another downward trend. Bruhwiler. K. Hence.A.. but sometimes dropping five parts per billion (ppb) per year into the negative range. while rising near the end of the record to mean positive values of 8 and 12 ppb per year for the two measurement networks. it can be appreciated that Dlugokencky (2008).

R.. Masarie.B. these researchers found that a sea surface temperature increase of only 1°C was sufficient to increase the atmospheric DMS concentration by as much as 50 percent.M. Rigby. In examining 10 years of DMS data from Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean.C. M. M.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! Dlugokencky.. J. Ehhalt. S. F. D. The 1991-1992 atmospheric methane anomaly: Southern hemisphere 13C decrease and growth rate fluctuations.R. R.. Renewed growth of atmospheric methane. 2008.02117. USA...P. the less the input of solar radiation to the earth’s surface).J. is known to be a function of cloud droplet concentration (the more and smaller the cloud droplets. D.S. Manning.S. But just how strong is the negative feedback phenomenon proposed by Charlson et al. Charlson et al. and Bromley.L. Steele. the greater the cloud albedo and the reflection of solar radiation). Cunnold. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 499-502.A. Dimethyl Sulfide More than two decades ago. R. Methane. Francey. P. Coram. The basic tenet of their hypothesis was that the global radiation balance is significantly influenced by the albedo of marine stratus clouds (the greater the cloud albedo. 2000).? Is it powerful enough to counter the threat of greenhouse gas-induced global warming? According to the findings of Sciare et al. M. Charlson et al.. (Eds. C.043. D.C. E.7. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases. Krummel. providing what they call a “very important” negative feedback that could potentially offset the original impetus for warming..K.J. D. One review. New York. 2000. 2001. P.P. (1987) discussed the plausibility of a multi-stage negative feedback process. 2. Harth. G.. Manning.1029/2001GL014521. pp. Salameh. Huang.L. Journal of Geophysical Research 99: 17. E.. J. Lowe.R.G..631-23. it may well be able to do just that. Geophysical Research Letters 24: 857860. Butenhoff.J. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89: S27. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 14: 41-49. M. 245-287.. Since the publication of Charlson et al. states that “major links in the feedback chain proposed by Charlson et al.M. and Rasmussen. The trend in atmospheric methane ð13C and implications for constraints on the global methane budget..) State of the Climate in 2007. and Masarie.1029/2008GL036037. noted that the cloud condensation nuclei concentration often depends upon the flux of biologically produced DMS from the world’s oceans (the higher the sea surface temperature. 2002.R.J. E. and Kasischke. in turn. which is dependent upon the availability of cloud condensation nuclei on which the droplets form (the more cloud condensation nuclei. D. NY. Lowe. Fraser. C. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.1021/es061791t. K. the more and smaller the cloud droplets). A history of ð13C in atmospheric CH4 from the Cape Grim Air Archive and Antarctic firn air. Prinn. whereby warming-induced increases in the emission of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) from the world’s oceans tend to counteract any initial impetus for warming. Blake.W. and Lawrimore.. P. Etheridge. J. Lassey.M. and Porter.A. D. Measurements of an anomalous global methane increase during 1998.J. 1994. for example. Walter.P..... 2001. Langenfelds. Langenfelds. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10. (2000).. Muhle. The growth rate and distribution of atmospheric methane.P. K.. A. 2008. and Manning.L. Implications of the recent fluctuations in the growth rate of tropospheric methane.H.A. 45 .. the greater the sea-to-air flux of DMS). much empirical evidence has been gathered in support of its several tenets.C. Lang. D. R. 2007. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 23. Weiss.J. (1987) have a sound physical basis.. Simpson.. This finding suggests that the degree of warming typically predicted to accompany a doubling of the air’s CO2 content would increase the atmosphere’s DMS concentration by a factor of three or more. and Steele. and Dlugokencky. and Prather. 1999. Cambridge University Press.K. K. C.. Atmospheric methane: Trends and cycles of sources and sinks.F. Geophysical Research Letters 35: 10. Environmental Science & Technology 10.C.M. Allison. Khalil.A. 1997.R...643. Lang. H. The albedo of these clouds.H. Wang. Steele. Lowe. And in completing the negative feedback loop. I. S. R.W. In: Levinson. Simmonds.. L. Brailsford. O’Doherty. Schnell. P.G.E. Dlugokencky. L. R.M. M. L.A. and Rowland.M.. L. P. M. P. E. B.’s initial hypothesis. R.H. D..” and that there is “compelling observational evidence to suggest that DMS and its atmospheric products participate significantly in processes of climate regulation and reactive atmospheric chemistry in the remote marine boundary layer of the Southern Hemisphere” (Ayers and Gillett...R.

.” which “are a function of mixed layer SO42-) rise dramatically in response to both diurnal depth. in phytoplankton communities should increase their line with the seasonal variation of its gaseous DMS production and ventilation to the atmosphere. above the Austral Ocean. because concentrations acute oxidative stress such as exposure to high levels of DMS and its oxidation products (MSA and nssof UVR. as well as the diurnal regime. say this observation provides even events can be set in motion by means of phenomena more support for “the existence of a positive oceannot discussed in Charlson et al. “the potential of a global change-DMS-climate Also of note in this regard. Toole and Siegel find seasonal investigation. the MS.g. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series greenhouse gas concentrations. and equatorial upwelling regions.’s derived from satellite observations to the depth of the hypothesis was the study of Kouvarakis and climatological mixed layer. 2002). Toole and term.” influence on seasonal planktonic succession scenarios where DMS may be accurately predicted as a function and food-web structure.74 nmol m-3 in the summer. an exclusive oxidation stratospheric ozone and the shoaling of ocean mixed product of DMS.anomalies in the rainwater were 46 .g. In the For oligotrophic regimes. too. which they call the “stress-forced 1997 through October 1999.” Specifically.” and seasonal increases in SST.. Such was also the case while more than 82 percent of the variability is in the diurnal studies: DMS concentrations were explained by UVR(325) [ultraviolet radiation at 325 lowest when it was coldest (just before sunrise). Sunda et al.” So how does the warming-induced DMS variation of DMS during two intensive measurement negative feedback cycle operate in these waters? campaigns conducted in September 1997. open-ocean seasonal variation with higher values in summer. precursor (DMS). Boyd and Their data.” In addition. Consequently. after with recent laboratory results (e. atmosphere feedback on the biogenic sulfur cycle Simo and Pedros-Alio (1999). who measured seasonal “bloom-forced regime.” This relationship. going or insignificantly correlated with phytoplankton and from a low of 0.” which. which they refer to as the Mihalopoulos (2002). rose nm]. Baboukas et al. and potentially confirms the findings of Sciare et al. (2000). and that it could Study (Steinberg et al.” and that “in response. they demonstrate that products—non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO42-) and modeled surface DMS concentrations are independent methanesulfonic acid (MSA)—at a remote coastal of chlorophyll and are a function of the mixed layer location in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea from May depth alone. “further increasing cloud condensing nuclei.87 nmol m-3 in the winter to a high of bacterial indices for abundance and productivity 3.. revealed “a well distinguished Doney. via their continental shelf. which they dipped slightly and then experienced a 2002). whereupon a decline in both temperature and (particulate and dissolved dimethylsulfonioproDMS concentration set in that continued until just pionate) “dramatically increase under conditions of before sunrise. layers as a result of global warming (e.” has a substantial influence on DMS yield in the short In a newer study of this phenomenon. seasonal variations in vertical mixing.S. in their substantially mute the climatic impacts of those gases.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! found to be closely related to SST anomalies.’s original hypothesis. (1998) 1992-1994 phenomenon would operate in the case of the longorganic sulfur time-series that was sampled in concert term warming that could arise from increasing with the U. for example. there is every reason These results—which Toole and Siegel confirmed to believe that the same negative feedback via an analysis of the Dacey et al.” who demonstrated that intracellular DMS further rise to the time of maximum temperature at concentration and its biological precursors 2000. as do longer-term oceans “consisting primarily of high latitude. of the ratio of the amount of surface chlorophyll More directly supportive of Charlson et al. they say that “UVR doses report the results of nine years of measurements of will increase as a result of observed decreases in methanesulfonate (MS-). in their words. 2001)—suggest. DMS concentrations tracked that “DMS biological production rates are negatively sea surface temperature (SST) almost perfectly.” For the other 85 percent of variations of gaseous DMS and its oxidation the world’s marine waters.. (2002) feedback. in their words. in rainwater at Amsterdam Island. and Other research has shown that this same chain of Baboukas et al. words. one of the most important discovered that the depth of the surface mixing-layer DMS sources of the world. is “consistent rapidly as it warmed thereafter to about 1100. via a number of photo-induced (and thereby Siegel (2004) note that it has been shown to operate mixing-depth mediated) influences on several as described above in the 15 percent of the world’s complex physiological phenomena.

Michaels. Toole.R. Howse. Nature 326: 655-661. R. N. G. Idso.A. the effects of these processes have not been fully incorporated into today’s state-of-the-art climate models. P. and Warren. It is very possible these biologically driven phenomena could entirely compensate for the warming influence of all greenhouse gas emissions experienced to date. C.F. Andrea. Nature 402: 396-399.. C. Lovelock. S. Seasonal variation of dimethylsulfide in the gas phase and of methanesulfonate and non-sea-salt sulfate in the aerosols phase in the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere. Kiene. S. even in the absence of surface warming. D. An antioxidant function for DMSP and DMS in marine algae. Baboukas. 1987. and Knap. D.O. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10.J.W.A. Hence. Kouvarakis.J. in all its variety and richness. Modeling regional responses by marine pelagic ecosystems to global climate change. R. Interannual variability of atmospheric dimethylsulfide in the southern Indian Ocean. and in spite of the overwhelming empirical evidence for both land. R.C. D.G.. Bates.J. F. A role for soil microbes in moderating the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect? Soil Science 149: 179180. J. N. Light-driven cycling of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the Sargasso Sea: Closing the loop.1029/2004GL019581. and Gillett. the warming they predict in response to future anthropogenic CO2 emissions must be considerably larger than what could actually occur in the real world.J. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. S. E. Carlson. and Mihalopoulos. 2004. W. R..B.. which operates over the other 15 percent. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 26. A.A. and Dentener.co2science . Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 48: 1405-1447. Journal of Sea Research 43: 275-286. Deep Sea Research 45: 2085-2104.. Steinberg. 2002. S. Kieber.E.K. 2002.. Johnson. 1990. Simo. N. On the basis of experiments that showed soil DMS emissions to be positively correlated with soil organic matter content..P.G. Sciare.. and Siegel.. J. Boyd. Dacey. In addition. Overview of the US JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS): a decade-scale look at ocean biology and biogeochemistry.377.369-26.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! playing out a coupled global change-DMS-climate feedback. J. A. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.. Idso (1990) hypothesized that because atmospheric CO2 is an effective aerial fertilizer. 47 . atmospheric sulfur. Interannual variability of methanesulfonate in rainwater at Amsterdam Island (Southern Indian Ocean). Nevertheless. G.A.” This second DMS-induced negative-feedback cycle. Temporal variability of dimethylsulfide and dimethylsulfoniopropionate in the Sargasso Sea. Mihalopoulos. cloud albedo and climate. it has been suggested that a DMS-induced negative climate feedback phenomenon also operates over the terrestrial surface of the globe. 2000. is another manifestation of the capacity of earth’s biosphere to regulate its affairs in such a way as to maintain climatic conditions over the vast majority of the planet’s surface within bounds conducive to the continued existence of life. where the volatilization of reduced sulfur gases from soils may be just as important as marine DMS emissions in enhancing cloud albedo (Idso.W. F.. A. 2001. Charlson.1029/2001GL014130. Oceanic phytoplankton. N. and Doney. DMS and its oxidation products in the remote marine atmosphere: implications for climate and atmospheric chemistry.org/subject/d/dms. augmenting its atmospheric concentration and thereby increasing vegetative inputs of organic matter to earth’s soils should also produce an impetus for cooling. and Pedros-Alio.H. 1999. Additional information on this topic. J.W. Atmospheric Environment 36: 5131-5139.H. Michaels.F. References Ayers.and ocean-based DMS-driven negative feedbacks to global warming. 1990). as well as all those anticipated to occur in the future. 2002. D. 2000. 1998.P.php. Role of vertical mixing in controlling the oceanic production of dimethyl sulphide. Atmospheric Environment 36: 929-938. Nature 418: 317-320. Sciare. for example. can be found at http://www. and Wakeham. Sunda. M. and noting that additions of organic matter to a soil tend to increase the amount of sulfur gases emitted therefrom. S. and Huntsman. and Mihalopoulos.. which operates over 85 percent of the world’s marine waters and complements the first DMSinduced negative-feedback cycle. 2002. R.

the radiative forcing due to atmospheric biases of up to 30 Wm-2. the increases since pre-industrial times” and “highlight possibility of circular reasoning arises. noted by Vogelmann et al.” These temperature with the observed change over some values.” employ? “Unfortunately. Jacobson.” The second approach situation.. based on “the total forcing the IR radiative forcing at the earth’s surface for required to match climate model simulations with aerosols encountered in the outflow from northeastern observed temperature changes.8.” according to Anderson et Chou et al. which is 2001) despite their potentially large forcing. so much so. this effort revealed that “aerosols reduce aerosols derived by forward calculation is the annual-mean net downward solar flux by 5.8. in the words of than the 1 to 2 Wm change in the globally averaged Anderson et al.. as CO2. on “knowledge of the pertinent attempt to persuade climate modelers to rectify this aerosol physics and chemistry.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! These latter results are similar to those obtained 2. who note there are two different ways by scale climate models currently consider aerosol IR which the aerosol forcing of climate may be [infrared] effects (e. more than 10 Wm-2.7 Wm-2 (IPCC.. p. for equal loadings. in fact. is based on matching residuals. The second approach.” Asia. 1998). highly varied optical increases since pre-industrial times is 1 to 2 Wm-2. or absorption in the atmosphere with underestimation larger than. with a total direct radiative circulation models of the atmosphere. the scientists determined that “daytime surface -2 where the aerosol forcing is computed from what is IR forcings are often a few Wm and can reach required to match the calculated change in almost 10 Wm-2 for large aerosol loadings. in their words. leading them to estimates are too low. (2002) analyzed aerosol optical al. the scientific literature indicates these atmospheric aerosol concentrations.” impetus for cooling at the top of the atmosphere was which implies that “natural variability (that is. Many studies suggest the predict regional and seasonal values of solar radiation radiative forcing of aerosols may be as large as. (2003) report that “mineral surface IR forcing caused by greenhouse gas aerosols have complex. Consequently. 2007-I.” model of the planet’s atmosphere to calculate the How significant is this choice? Anderson et al. that if forward surface. the radiative and “even the sign of the total forcing is in question. report that the negative forcing of anthropogenic In general. based on measurements made by the MarineThe first approach utilizes known physical and Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer from chemical laws and assumes nothing about the the NOAA Ship Ronald H. “to the extent that climate models surface IR forcing caused by greenhouse gas rely on the results of inverse calculations. in Characterization Experiment-Asia. 1996. The first is forward calculation. the results “differ greatly” September-December 1997. Brown during the Aerosol outcome of the calculation. account for spatial and temporal variations in However. while it was more than 25 Wm-2 variability not forced by anthropogenic emissions) is at the surface of the sea in the vicinity of Indonesia. and by 5. Tegen et al..9 Wm at the calculation. 48 . the globally averaged Vogelmann et al. properties that. By way of comparison.” the importance of aerosol IR forcing which should be So which approach do climate models typically included in climate model simulations.5 Wm-2 and an additional indirect cloud revealed that the climate models did not properly albedo forcing of -0. 4). can cause Aerosol uncertainties and the problems they differences in the surface IR flux between 7 and 25 -2 generate figure prominently in a study by Anderson et Wm (Sokolik et al..” and “only a few largeal.g.” During the large Indonesian fires of calculation is employed. climatic effects of aerosols over earth’s major oceans. Total Aerosol Effect calculate the amount of solar radiation absorbed in the atmosphere over equatorial Africa and compared the The IPCC estimates the net effect of all aerosols is to results with the predictions of three general produce a cooling effect.4 Wm-2 2 “considerably greater” than that derived by inverse at the top of the atmosphere. computed.. however. As a result of this considerable contrast. (2003). work. “are comparable to or larger -2 period of time. This work forcing of -0. they used high-resolution spectra to obtain is inverse calculation.1. Aerosols earlier by Wild (1999). who used a comprehensive set of collocated surface and satellite observations to 2.” In an based. “virtually all climate model studies that have properties retrieved from the satellite-mounted Seaincluded anthropogenic aerosol forcing as a driver of viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and climate change have used only aerosol forcing values used them in conjunction with a radiative transfer that are consistent with the inverse approach. in their words.

he says “the need for reducing the uncertainty from its present estimated value by at least a factor of 3 and perhaps a factor of 10 or more seems inescapable if the uncertainty in climate sensitivity is to be reduced to an extent where it becomes useful for formulating policy to deal with global change. shed feather fractions. php under the heading Aerosols.” Schwartz thus contends that climate model predictions of CO2-induced global warming “are limited at present by uncertainty in radiative forcing of climate change over the industrial period.” The bottom line.” Schwartz (2004) also addressed the subject of uncertainty as it applies to the role of aerosols in climate models.” and that “this disregard of the biological particles requires a new attitude. they write that “the impression prevails that the biological material.” and “one can easily imagine the [IR] influence on cloud cover. if real.” In describing their own measurements and those of others.” and. Additional information on this topic. including pollen. suggesting a probable net anthropogenic-induced climatic signal that must be very close to zero and incapable of producing what the IPCC refers to as the “unprecedented” warming of the twentieth century.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! much larger than climate models currently indicate.” However. including reviews of aerosols not discussed here. and those particles should be taken into account in understanding and modeling atmospheric processes. they note that many PBAPs. parts of insects. (2007). etc.” which surely suggests that even the best climate models of the day are wholly inadequate for this purpose. consequently. Originally. they note that “the IPCCReport of 2007 does not even mention these particles.” With respect to the meteorological and climatic relevance of these particles. despite some two decades of intervening work. the German researchers say “the overall conclusion can only be that PBAPs are a major fraction of atmospheric aerosols. marine plankton and bacteria are excellent ice nuclei.” We agree. but they also include fragments of living and dead organisms and plant debris.” Indeed. human and animal epithelial cells. can be found at http://www. mold and viruses.” and that it “raises questions regarding claims of having reproduced observed large-scale changes in surface temperature over the 20th century.” Schwartz opined that this continuing uncertainty “precludes meaningful model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change or empirical determination of climate sensitivity. in the words of Anderson et al. including “decaying vegetation. who reviewed the status of research being conducted on biological materials in the atmosphere. “it is likely that in another 20 years it will still not be possible to specify the climate sensitivity with [an] uncertainty range appreciably narrower than it is at present. climate forcing and feedback and global precipitation distribution. which they denominate primary biological atmospheric particles or PBAPs. the PBAP fraction is ~20 percent of the total aerosol. ready to be lifted again in resuspension.” and that if this situation is not improved.” In a brief summation of their findings.” Jaenicke et al. and (4) Non-Biological (Natural). Over much of the planet’s surface. is that “inferences about the causes of surface warming over the industrial period and about climate sensitivity may therefore be in error. which they say “have now been carried out at several geographical locations covering all seasons of the year and many characteristic environments. Either the air temperature record they rely on is in error or the warming.org/subject/a/subject_a.” In addition. report that “by number and volume.5°C” and that “remarkably. that “the biosphere must be a major source for directly injected biological particles. bacteria. (2) Biological (Terrestrial). and are comparable to sea salt over the oceans and mineral particles over the continents.co2science. and appears rather constant during the year. which is dominated by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols. these particles were restricted to cultureforming units. (3) Non-Biological (Anthropogenic). sits on surfaces. Noting that the National Research Council (1979) concluded that “climate sensitivity [to CO2 doubling] is likely to be in the range 1. is due to something other than anthropogenic CO2 emissions. whether produced directly or shed during the seasons.5-4. which they lump together under the category of “dead biological matter. the radiative cooling influence of atmospheric aerosols (many of which are produced by anthropogenic activities) must prevail.. 49 .. Coming to much the same conclusion was the study of Jaenicke et al. broken hair filaments. Our review of important aerosol studies continues below with a separate discussion of four important aerosol categories: (1) Biological (Aquatic). neither the central value nor the uncertainty range has changed.

several components proposed by Charlson et al. The References process begins with an initial impetus for warming Anderson. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 59: 748-757. 2001. This enhanced process leads to the forcing by aerosols—a hazy picture. and Heintzenberg. radiation back to space. which leads in turn to the evolution of greater amounts of dimethyl Chou. as do seasonal variations in vertical mixing in Climate: A Scientific Assessment. J. Qin. Discrepancies between model-calculated compounds that are oxidized in the atmosphere to and observed shortwave atmospheric absorption in areas sulfate and methane sulfonate and could be evidence with high aerosol loadings. Nature 380: 419-422. Larger quantities of DMS diffuse into the optical properties. in the surface waters of the world’s radiative forcing derived from SeaWiFS-retrieved aerosol oceans. They Charlson et al. atmosphere. R. Tasmania. USA.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! studies. Washington. S. 2007-I.1029/2002GL016829. there is increased biogenic 30: 10. I. Aerosol sulphide.. Markowicz. which observations led them to Sciences. Knutti.8.. Lacis. Flatau.W. result. Z. finding that the depth of the surface mixing-layer has a substantial influence on DMS yield in the short National Research Council. Journal of Geophysical 1980 to 1991. H..361-27.J.. This Basis. 1998. D. Rodhe. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth phenomenon then leads to the creation of more and Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on brighter clouds that reflect more incoming solar Climate Change. dimethylsulphoniopropionate. 2003. (1999) analyzed weekly Management Association 54: 1351-1359. Charlson. S. The influence on to-year variability in the strength of the biogenic climate forcing of mineral aerosols from disturbed soils. R. Solomon.B. 1979. S..” forcing of climate.. Atlantic Ocean about 400 km south of Iceland. Schwartz...E. O. where the gas is oxidized.. 2004. Marquis. to study the production of DMS by enzymatic Jaenicke.” Ayers and Gillett (2000) summarized relevant empirical evidence collected at Cape Grim. 2007. climate system. including sulfate and methane sulfonate. K. S.N. sulfur signal was strongly correlated with the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. P. “suggests that as the K.J.. Szczodrak.. P. leading to the creation of greater amounts of acidic aerosols that IPCC.A. 1999.M.. concentrations of 24 different airborne particulates Sokolik. Manning. Several recent studies have shed additional light Jacobson.. P-K. 1996. warming. 2002. M. DC.. Chan.Z. National Academy of the longer term. cleavage of dimethylsulphoniopropionate in the North Omnipresence of biological material in the atmosphere. and Minnett. influence that counters the initial impetus for Miller.2. M. and Gruber. Journal of Geophysical of a negative feedback mechanism in the global Research 104: 27. 2. Carbon Dioxide and term. They found concentrations of biogenic Research 103: 8813-8826. Climate phytoplankton. Tignor. M-D. Averyt. measured at the northernmost manned site in the Modeling the radiative characteristics of airborne mineral world—Alert. R.371. M..” the authors say. thereby providing a cooling Chen. and Wang. Global direct radiative forcing due to on this complex hypothesis.E.L. UK.L. T. S. Biological (Aquatic) along with pertinent evidence reported in many peerreviewed scientific papers on this subject. M.. and Fung. sulfur. M.B. I.J. conclude that “climate-controlled mixing controls Schwartz. and that the yearTegen. and Bergstrom. Matthias-Maser. O. M. M. Northwest Territories. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science function as cloud condensation nuclei. production of the reduced sulfur precursor Wild. (Eds. Geophysical Research Letters temperature rises. I. A. Cambridge.. (1987) have a sound of which have been verified by subsequent scientific 50 . R. Toon. Canada—from aerosols at infrared wavelengths. 2003. A.) Cambridge University Press. or DMS. (1987) described a multi-stage conclude that “major links in the feedback chain negative feedback phenomenon. “This Vogelmann. were low in winter but high in summer. that links biology with climate change. (1999) used satellite imagery and in situ experiments Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 1551-1568. Uncertainty requirements in radiative DMS production over vast regions of the ocean.M.. Journal of the Air & Waste Hopke et al. Science 300: 1103production of more copious quantities of 1104. that stimulates primary production in marine Boucher. Environmental Chemistry 4: 217-220. and H. Simo and Pedros-Alio multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols.

DMS concentrations tracked sea surface temperature (SST) almost perfectly.” For more about that ! study and a newer study by Toole and Siegel (2004). including reviews of newer publications as they become available. References Ayers.9 nmol m-3 in going from winter to summer.J. whereupon a decline set in that continued until just before sunrise. in the authors’ words.G. F. N..D.” Another pertinent study was conducted by Kouvarakis and Mihalopoulos (2002).377. 2004. they give off greater quantities of gases that lead to the production of greater quantities of cloud condensation nuclei.7 of this report. Atmospheric Environment 36: 929-938. G. (2000). more studies confirm the Charlson et al.6 to 123.W. Nature 326: 655-661. 2000.” Sciare et al. they noted there is “compelling observational evidence to suggest that DMS and its atmospheric products participate significantly in processes of climate regulation and reactive atmospheric chemistry in the remote marine boundary layer of the Southern Hemisphere. 1999. Interannual variability of atmospheric dimethylsulfide in the southern Indian Ocean. J. The normal hour-to hour. Lovelock. noting that “this is the first time that a direct link between SSTs [sea surface temperatures] and atmospheric DMS is established for a large oceanic area. Journal of Chemometrics 13: 343-352. Mixed multiway analysis of airborne particle composition data. Mircea. see Section 2. Yoon.” More specifically. that reflect more incoming solar radiation back to space. MSA concentrations exhibited a similar seasonal variation to that displayed by DMS. M. Baboukas. Mihalopoulos. stop.99 nmol m-3. they found DMS anomalies to be “closely related to sea surface temperature anomalies. and thereby either reverse.87 nmol m-3 in the winter to a high of 3. 1987. rose rapidly thereafter to about 1100. Nature 431: 676-680. Fuzzi. E. Seasonal variation of dimethylsulfide in the gas phase and of methanesulfonate and non-sea-salt sulfate in the aerosols phase in the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere. (2002). and Gillett. Their study revealed “a clear seasonal variation with a factor of 20 in amplitude between its maximum in January (austral summer) and minimum in July-August (austral winter).. atmospheric sulfur. M. G. ranging from a wintertime low of 0.J. which create more and brighter clouds. who investigated the seasonal variations of gaseous DMS and its oxidation products—non-sea-salt sulfate (nssSO42-) and methanesulfonic acid (MSA)—at a remote coastal location in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea from May 1997 through October 1999. or slow the warming that initiated this negative feedback phenomenon. J..” In addition. cloud albedo and climate.org/ subject/a/aerosolsbioaqua. The same was also true of aerosol nss-SO42which varied from 0. O’Dowd. and Dentener. Such was also the case in the diurnal study: DMS concentrations were lowest just before sunrise. N. DMS and its oxidation products in the remote marine atmosphere: implications for climate and atmospheric chemistry. Journal of Sea Research 43: 275-286.. going from a low of 0.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! physical basis. Ceburnis.. R. P. As time passes.O.. Sciare.-P. day-to-day. R. Sciare. J. Y. were followed by a little dip and then a further rise to 2000. P. Additional information on this topic.php. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 26. and Mihalopoulos..369-26. 2002.” They found that a temperature increase of only 1°C was sufficient to increase the atmospheric DMS concentration by as much as 50 percent on a monthly basis. hypothesis that as marine phytoplankton are exposed to rising temperatures. 2002. S. by Baboukas et al. Decesari. Xie. Y. Biogenically driven organic contribution to marine aerosol. F.P. Cavalli. and Paatero. S.E. In the seasonal investigation. N. as well as the diurnal variation of DMS during two intensive measurement campaigns in September 1997.. and Warren. Oceanic phytoplankton.J. Facchini. M. Hopke.04 nmol m-3 to a summertime high of 0.74 nmol m-3 in the summer..co2science. “further confirms the findings of Sciare et al. Kouvarakis.. 51 . Andrea. A related study of methanesulfonate (MS-) in rainwater at Amsterdam Island. clearly indicating a link between DMS and climate changes.K. D. Interannual variability of methanesulfonate in rainwater at Amsterdam Island (Southern Indian Ocean).. C. can be found at http://www. (2000) made continuous measurements of atmospheric DMS concentration over the 10-year period 1990-1999 at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean. S. and Putaud. Atmospheric Environment 36: 5131-5139 Charlson. and season-to-season behaviors of the phytoplanktonic inhabitants of earth’s marine ecosystems seem to be effectively combating extreme environmental temperature changes. J. 2000..C. and Mihalopoulos.

carbonyls. according to the Monks (2000) “have suggested that one of the reasons two scientists. earth’s terrestrial plants have a additional numbers of “Populus. it can be CO2-induced increases in BVOC emissions in the appreciated that with respect to the claimed ill effects identical species of oak studied by Vuorinen et al. Some studies. explanation for this wide range of results comes from there are likely to be two strong ameliorative Baraldi et al. Some of radiation interception. 2002). might greatly increase the air’s CO2 content rises. and a further 2-3°C rise in the mean global temperature . since Peñuelas and Llusia report that What is more. An of CO2-induced global warming on earth’s vegetation. Shulaev et al. who found no effect of elevated CO2 on Of particular importance within the context of monoterpene emissions from Ponderosa pine and global climate change. 2004.” quantities of organic aerosols that could affect climate Comprised of isoprene. and Loreto et al. C. (2001) observed temperatures. BVOC emissions. and (2) the years—concluded that “BVOC emission can remain tendency for rising air temperatures and CO2 nearly constant as rising CO2 reduces emission per concentrations to spur the production of higher unit leaf area while stimulating biomass growth and concentrations of heat-stress-reducing BVOCs. biosphere too. in the opinion of Peñuelas and Douglas fir trees. one example being Constable et (Peñuelas et al. esters.” alcohols.. Role of vertical mixing that “global warming over the past 30 years could in controlling the oceanic production of dimethyl sulphide. in fact. D. D. who—after exposing sections of phenomena that act to protect the planet’s plants: (1) a southern California chaparral ecosystem to the aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from 250 to enrichment. 1997). 1999. alkenes. alkanes. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. and Siegel.” The conversion of abandoned agricultural Just as marine phytoplankton respond to rising lands to forests and the implementation of planned temperatures by giving off gases that ultimately lead reforestation projects should help the rest of the to less global warming. is the growing realization that “isoprene and decreases in BVOC emissions. so too do terrestrial plants. might confer protection against high plants. With leaf area per unit ground area.. is how increased the review paper of Peñuelas and Llusia (2003). tendency to operate in this manner more effectively as which are major emitters. Biological (Terrestrial) and the activity of the responsible enzymes (Litvak et al. have reported Llusia. such as those of monoterpenes. or to aid wound sealing surroundings in addition to any physiological or after damage (Pichersky and Gershenzon.8. have increased the BVOC global emissions by Nature 402: 396-399. perhaps. which constitute a major fraction of Vuorinen et al. (1999). who worked with cabbage BVOCs. Light-driven cycling of global emissions by an additional 30-45 percent. note that “the increased release of nitrogen into the biosphere by man probably also enhances BVOC emissions by increasing the level of carbon fixation 2. this diverse As a result.3.” dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the Sargasso Sea: Closing the There may also be other phenomena that favor loop.1029/2004 earth’s plants within this context. 1996).” al.” They also say BVOCs provide a means “to attract Not all experiments have reported increases in pollinators and herbivore predators. include acting as “deterrents against plants emit the aerosol isoprene might be to cool the pathogens and herbivores. (2001). say biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) Peñuelas and Llusia say that “BVOCs generate large constitute “one of nature’s biodiversity treasures. (2004). and to plant BVOC emissions with increasing atmospheric communicate with other plants and organisms CO2 concentrations.” A good introduction to this subject is provided by Most intriguing of all. they say “there should be a net cooling of group of substances is produced by a variety of the Earth’s surface during the day because of processes occurring in many plant tissues. who BVOC emissions might impact climate change. Eucalyptus or Pinus. Staudt et al. oxygen species produced [within plants] under high On the other hand. Peñuelas and Llusia calculate 52 .” evaporative effects that might cool the plant directly.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Simo. (2004). which is typically more strongly 750 ppm in 100-ppm increments for a period of four expressed at higher temperatures. 1995. approximately 10 percent. and Pedros-Alio. who studied temperatures” by acting “as scavengers of reactive monoterpene emissions from oak seedlings.A. and acids.. could increase BVOC Toole.A. Peñuelas and Llusia GL019581..” If this is indeed the case. R. terpenes.” In most of the cases respect to temperature.” noting that Shallcross and the functions of these substances. significantly by forming cloud condensation nuclei..

” which have many positive implications in the realms of both biology and climate. and the increases are often large.” Commenting on this finding. there was an increase of fully 126 percent in the total amount of monoterpenes emitted over the growing season. reaching a value of zero at 35°C. which led the authors to conclude. Kavouras et al. (2003) who grew onions from seed for 30 days in individual cylindrical flow-through growth chambers under controlled environmental conditions at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of either 400 or 1. and their photosynthetic rates were 22 percent greater. Their work demonstrated that certain hydrocarbons emitted by vegetation (isoprene and terpenes.” but they say there remain numerous uncertainties involving complex feedback processes “that must be determined if we are to predict future changes in global climate. respectively.” A number of studies suggest that the phenomena discussed in the preceding paragraphs do indeed operate in the real world. BVOC emissions tend to increase with atmospheric CO2 enrichment. After making its way into the stratosphere. This work demonstrated. which Jasoni et al. aerosols (or biosols) produced from two of these organic acids (cis. When optimally hydrated.” More generally. “the amount of monoterpenes released by Scots pines into the atmosphere during a growing season will increase substantially in the predicted future climate. in particular) do indeed experience gasto-particle transformations. in their words.) seedlings.” Shifting from trees to a much smaller plant. it can be photo53 .and trans-pinonic acid) comprised as much as 40 percent of the fine particle atmospheric mass during daytime hours. O’Dowd et al. They studied the two phenomena (and their interaction) within closed-top chambers built on a naturally seeded stand of the trees in eastern Finland that had been exposed to the four treatments—ambient CO2 and ambient temperature. At the end of the study. Jasoni et al. organic vapor growth rate measurements were made of particles that nucleated into organic cloud-droplets in the flow-tube cloud chamber of a modified condensation-particle counter. and studied their uptake of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) in a dynamic cuvette system under controlled conditions in the laboratory. measured a number of atmospheric gases and particles in a eucalyptus forest in Portugal and analyzed their observations to see if there was any evidence of biologically produced gases being converted to particles that could function as cloud condensation nuclei. “confer insect resistance against a major agricultural pest. (2008) conducted an experiment designed to see to what extent a doubling of the air’s CO2 content and a 2°—6°C increase in air temperature might impact the emission of monoterpenes from 20-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. ambient CO2 and elevated temperature. ambient temperature and elevated CO2. for example. In addition. they conclude that “plants grown under elevated CO2 will accumulate excess carbon and that at least a portion of this excess carbon is funneled into an increased production of BVOCs. OCS was absorbed from the atmosphere by the lichens at a rate that gradually doubled as air temperature rose from approximately 3° to 25°C. Kuhn and Kesselmeier (2000) collected lichens from an open oak woodland in central California. the plants in the CO2-enriched chambers had 40 percent more biomass than the plants grown in ambient air. note that “aerosol particles produced over forested areas may affect climate by acting as nuclei for cloud condensation.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! investigated. (2002). who measured aerosol electrical-mobility size-distributions before and during the initial stage of an atmospheric nucleation event over a boreal forest in Finland. Why is this significant? OCS is the most stable and abundant reduced sulfur gas in the atmosphere and is thus a major player in determining earth’s radiation budget. elevated temperature and elevated CO2—for the prior five years.000 ppm. ambient temperature treatment. and that emissions in the elevated-temperature-only treatment were 9 percent less than those in ambient air. as noted above. (1998). produced by oxidation of terpenes in organic vapours released from the canopy. Raisanen et al. that newly formed aerosol particles over forested areas “are composed primarily of organic species. spider mites. such as cispinonic acid and pinonic acid. In fact. USA. however. In the presence of both elevated CO2 and elevated temperature. the CO2-enriched plants exhibited 17-fold and 38-fold increases in emissions of the BVOC hydrocarbons 2-undecanone and 2-tridecanone. whereupon the rate of OCS absorption dropped precipitously. A similar study was conducted by O’Dowd et al. however. the three Finnish researchers found that total monoterpene emissions in the elevated-CO2-only treatment were 5 percent greater than those in the ambient CO2. Simultaneously. make a point of noting. Over the five-month growing season of MaySeptember.

where it can be converted into sulfate by Goldstein et al.. Schade (Suraqui et al. Roderick et al. increased exponentially as a function of temperature trees tend to dominate in this regard. mention three major routes by which O3 exits algae. Recent research at a coniferous forest site. which is documented at some length in Section 2. which is followed by another important step towards clarifying the issue by the tendency for less internal canopy shading to measuring the effect of forest thinning on O3 enhance whole-canopy photosynthesis (Healey et al. Harley et al. exactly Additional real-world evidence for the existence of what is implied by the observations of Kuhn and this phenomenon was provided by Gu et al. (2004). the rate of Reichenau and Esser (2003). more OCS remains in the air. Kesselmeier. 1998). which increases the increases in BVOC emissions is the propensity of potential for more OCS to make its way into the BVOCs to destroy tropospheric ozone. while the remainder has such as greenhouse gases. 1996). “thermostat” may well be powerful enough to define The first of these exit routes. removal of OCS from the air by this particular species One final beneficial effect of CO2-induced of lichen declines dramatically. Abakumova et al. This being the case. take canopies (Roderick et al.. With respect to the latter phenomenon. together with In a study designed to take the next step towards the cloud particles they spawn.” for CO2-induced increases in BVOCs. Goldstein et al. but it is also responsible for destroying a lot of physiological control of carbonic anhydrase—which O3. according to an upper limit above which the surface air Goldstein et al.. In the current study. Goldstein is the key enzyme for OCS uptake in all higher plants.3 of this typically converted to sulfate aerosol particles that are report.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! The significance of this process is described and dissociated. (2002). Since the consumption of OCS by lichens is under the 1999). suggesting O3 was lost via effective counterbalance to the greenhouse properties of CO2. subsequent reduction of the strength of the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect. 54 . even when changes in other forcing factors. and soil organisms—we could expect this the air near the earth’s surface: leaf stomatal uptake. The phenomenon begins with the propensity gas phase reactions with biogenically emitted terpenes before they could escape the forest canopy. For more about OCS. Earth’s vegetation is aerosol particles that can reflect more incoming solar responsible for the production of vast amounts of radiation back to space and thereby cool the earth. which finally produces the end result: a greater destruction in an attempt to see if it is enhanced in photosynthetic extraction of CO2 from the air and the parallel fashion to the thinning-induced increase in monoterpene emissions.. to enhance the amount turning the implication of this observation into of diffuse solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface something stronger than a mere suggestion. biologically of an extra 2. O3 destruction).. (that is. as documented stratosphere. which and Goldstein (2003) demonstrated that forest is followed by the ability of enhanced diffuse lighting thinning dramatically enhances monoterpene to reduce the volume of shade within vegetative emissions. ozone (O3) (Chameides et al. to form SO2. Farquhar and Roderick (2003). produce an impetus for it to typically been attributed to deposition on nondo so. et al. and within-canopy gas-phase much of the plant kingdom... as well as oxidized. However. accounts for 30 percent to 90 percent temperature of the planet may be restricted from of total ecosystem O3 uptake from the atmosphere rising. 1974. When this happens. conducive to the continued existence of life. Pinatubo eruption—a unique natural therefore. and Goldstein (2003) recently showed that the nonAlthough BVOCs emitted from terrestrial plants stomatal flux [from the atmosphere to oblivion] both small and large are important to earth’s climate. 1988. This biological chemical reactions with BVOCs. Once air temperature rises above 25°C. they note that “Kurpius report. see Section 2. 2001).2 of this stomatal surfaces. phenomenon to be generally operative throughout surface deposition.5 Gt of carbon from the atmosphere due modulated COS concentrations may play a role in to its diffuse-light-enhancing stimulation of terrestrial keeping earth’s surface air temperature within bounds photosynthesis in the year following the eruption. (2003). concluded that highly reflective of incoming solar radiation and. have the capacity to significantly cool the experiment to evaluate the overall climatic sensitivity earth as more and more of them collect above the of the planet—may well have resulted in the removal tropopause. For example. the Mt.” and that “the exponential suggests yet another way in which their response to increase with temperature was consistent with the atmospheric CO2 enrichment may provide an temperature dependence of monoterpene emissions from the same ecosystem. and Niyogi et al. Law et al. (2004).

and surface temperature on the territory of the former Soviet Union. we wonder how anyone can presume to decide what should or should not be done about anthropogenic CO2 emissions. As a result.P. 2001.. F. G. a wealth of real-world evidence is beginning to suggest that both rising air temperatures and CO2 concentrations significantly increase desirable vegetative BVOC emissions. Fuentes. and that these phenomena continued in phase with each other thereafter. T. Schmid. V. they reveal a direct connection between the metabolic activity of trees and the propensity for the atmosphere to produce clouds.. Munger. Hollinger. W. Valentini.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! In a ponderosa pine plantation in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. Olson. Rapparini. Malhi. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 2415-2434. these observations provide a conclusive picture that the chemical loss of O3 is due to reactions with BVOCs emitted in a similar manner as terpenes. Paw U. T.. Verma. G.. Baraldi. The role of biogenic hydrocarbons in 55 . the relationship is one that is self-protecting of the biosphere. there is reason to believe that the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content will help to reduce the ongoing rise in the air’s O3 concentration.” Goldstein et al.” If this proves to be the case. Lindsay. H. R. New Phytologist 161: 17-21. Journal of Climatology 9: 1319-1327. Evans.. which lead to the destruction of ozone. Additional information on this topic. Feigelson. Oechel. Running. J. S.” and that “we can conceive no other possible explanation for this behavior other than chemical O3 destruction in and above the forest canopy by reactions with BVOCs. which lead to the creation of ozone (Poisson et al.. there is substantial evidence to suggest that the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content may well lead to an overall reduction in vegetative isoprene emissions.. A. R. Russak. and Stadnik. Chameides.” Goldstein et al. 2004. K. W. Davis. Meyers. S..H.... P. R.J. Gu..H. F. USA. V.. and energy flux densities. Pilegaard. X. S.org/ subject/a/aerosolsterr. monoterpene mixing ratios and fluxes were measured hourly within the plantation canopy.. In conclusion. which should be a boon to the entire biosphere.. including reviews of newer publications as they become available... 2000). Wilson. Lee. and Miglietta.” Indeed. cloudiness. Katul. S. Specifically. Cheng. which reduced plantation green leaf biomass by just over half. References Abakumova. Richardson. R. In addition... are significantly greater than vegetative emissions of isoprene. This being the case. Hence... B. making them larger than isoprene emissions on a global scale. particularly from trees. D. and Kiang. FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide. while at the same time enhancing vegetative productivity. Monoterpene emission responses to elevated CO2 in a Mediterraneantype ecosystem.. and Wofsy..L. L. E.. and that this phenomenon has a large number of extremely important and highly beneficial biospheric consequences. E. In each case. Baldocchi. C.S..... Falge. Simultaneously.C.V.. while total ecosystem O3 destruction was “partitioned to differentiate loss due to gas-phase chemistry from stomatal uptake and deposition. Oechel. Vesala.. This procedure involved the use of a masticator to mechanically “chew up” smaller unwanted trees and leave their debris on site.co2science. Y. 2000 and continued through June 15.. and the increased presence of BVOCs caused by rising CO2 and an increase in diffuse solar radiation. Law. Hastings. which constitute the most prominent photosynthetic force on the planet.. 2000. can be found at http://www. Y. W.. which leads to increased photosynthetic extraction of CO2 from the air. the metabolic activity of lichens and the presence of sulfate aerosol particles in the atmosphere that reflect incoming solar radiation. it will be a most important finding. J. they say that “considered together. report that both the destruction of ozone due to gas-phase chemistry and emissions of monoterpenes increased dramatically with the onset of thinning. These findings further demonstrate that the biology of the earth influences the climate of the earth.W.M. Goldstein. Bernhofer. which may well lead to an overall increase in vegetative terpene emissions. 1996. Evaluation of long-term changes in radiation. K.T. C. 1988. Bryant. D.M. R. for it would mean that vegetative emissions of terpenes.. water vapor.php. W. P. Anthoni. say their results “suggest that total reactive terpene emissions might be roughly a factor of 10 higher than the typically measured and modeled monoterpene emissions.. K. they “infer that the massive increase of O3 flux [from the atmosphere to oblivion] during and following mastication is driven by loss of O3 through chemical reactions with unmeasured terpenes or closely related BVOCs whose emissions were enhanced due to wounding [by the masticator]. a management procedure to improve forest health and optimize tree growth was initiated on May 11. K.

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. H.06 Wm-2 in the Southern Hemisphere. They are created by emissions from ocean-going vessels. St.1029/2002GL016138. or bright streaks that form in layers of marine stratus clouds. warming over that period could be attributed to the concomitant increase in the air’s CO2 content.. and Goldberg. G.. Raisanen. and Cohen. A.D. Effect of elevated CO2 on monoterpene emission of young Quercus ilex trees and its relation to structural and ecophysiological parameters.. S. Stanhill. I. especially during the day. J.H. V. 2004.L. ! Contrails created in the wake of emissions from jet aircraft are one example. 2.4. 2003. (1999) calculated that this phenomenon creates a mean negative radiative forcing of -0. 2006). Nerg. Solar radiation changes at Mt. but adjacent to. Solar Energy 16: 155-158.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! dimensional modeling results. Rambal. Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry 36: 157-230. Roderick. and Raskin. Suraqui. 2001.. 2000. Facchini et al. attention to this topic has centered on highly polluted air from south and southeast Asia that makes its way over the northern Indian Ocean during the dry monsoon season. industrial complexes in the Po Valley of Italy. Atmospheric CO2 stalled. 1974. Joffre.. Non-Biological (Anthropogenic) There are several ways the activities of humanity lead to the creation of aerosols that have the potential to alter earth’s radiation balance and affect its climate. P. M. S. Atmospheric Environment 34: 1659-1660. G. If true. A. the central part of the city had cooled. Katherine after forty years. these persistent and highly reflective linear patches of low-level clouds generally tend to cool the planet (Ferek et al.L. and Esser..-M. Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences.S. Oecologia 129: 21-30.R. D. S. and Goldstein. Aerosol-generating human activities also have a significant impact on local. This finding is indicative of a pervasive net cooling effect. M. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Reichenau. 1993. In recent years. T.G. Ship tracks. Berry.H.K.S. Norris (2001) looked at cloud cover as the ultimate arbiter of the various competing hypotheses. Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on monoterpene emission of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. and Kellomaki. R. Sahai (1998) found that although suburban areas of Nagpur. W. outside of.. P. Monoterpene and herbivore-induced emissions from cabbage plants grown at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration.” Likewise. J. A role for isoprene in biosphere-climate-chemistry feedbacks. S. Is interannual fluctuation of atmospheric CO2 dominated by combined effects of ENSO and volcanic aerosols? Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17: 10... Averaged over the surface of the earth both day and night and over the year. as well as more wideranging. Nature 365: 697-698. Farquhar. Ryyppo. (2004) have calculated that nearly all of the surface warming observed over the United States between 1975 and 1994 (0. 2001. India had warmed over recent decades. 2008. and Monks. and Kesselmeier.W. 2001.). 1997. S. Atmospheric Environment 42: 4160-4171. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 107: 255-278. Minnis et al. Nature 385: 718-721. T. (1999) found that water vapor was more likely to form on aerosols that had been altered by human-produced organic solutes. I. A. climatic phenomena over land. finding that daytime low-level oceanic cloud cover increased substantially over the last half of the past century in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at essentially all hours of the day. G. Airborne signaling by methyl salicylate in plant pathogen resistance. Tree Physiology 21: 437-445. because of “increasing concentrations of suspended particulate matter.E. 1998. Sarmiento.. and that this 57 . this result would imply that little to none of the observed U. On the direct effect of clouds and atmospheric particles on the productivity and structure of vegetation. G.P.V. B.16 Wm-2 in the Northern Hemisphere and -0. Staudt. Shallcross. J. and Holopainen. G. In some cases. Capaldo et al. Silverman.54°C) may well be explained by aircraftinduced increases in cirrus cloud coverage over that period. Tabor. T. and Noble. Schade.. Reddy. are another example. which values are to be compared to the much larger positive radiative forcing of approximately 4 Wm-2 due to a 300 ppm increase in the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration. 2003. Shulaev. Vuorinen. Increase of monoterpene emissions from a pine plantation as a result of mechanical disturbances.8.L. Klein.1029/2002GB002025. Schreier et al. Atmospheric Environment 38: 675-682. There has been much discussion about the impact of this phenomenon on regional climates. the atmosphere over the sea also carries a considerable burden of anthropogenically produced aerosols from terrestrial sites.

Toon (2000) pointed man-made aerosols and other air pollutants have out that when clouds are composed of smaller changed the optical properties of the atmosphere. and when problem. (2001) note that droplet clouds “are the most human-induced pollution over the tropical northern important factor controlling the albedo (reflectivity) Indian Ocean. they will not “rain out” as quickly and will particular those of clouds. And if it is. they reduced the magnitude of this range somewhat but the end result still stretched from a combined with the concomitant cloud-induced small cooling influence to a modest impetus for radiative forcing of about 0.” everything from a modest warming to a slight The value of the direct aerosol effect of this radiative cooling.05 complexes in Turkey. it represents a tremendous man-induced impetus for cooling] and its magnitude counter-influence to the enhanced greenhouse effect may be even larger than anticipated.” and reported that current best estimates of “the total In consequence of the observed decline in aerosol global mean present-day anthropogenic forcing range concentration of up to 60 percent. it seems.” therefore last longer and cover more of the earth. earth over the past half-century.” they concluded. as has apparently been the case over Stanhill and Cohen (2001).7 findings indicated that the clouds comprising these pollution tracks were composed of small droplets that percent per decade. They determined In a similar vein.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! solar radiation measurement programs around the phenomenon led to the creation of more numerous world to see if there had been any trend in the mean and more highly reflective cloud droplets that had a amount of solar radiation falling on the surface of the tendency to cool the surface below them. making the largest the last two decades of rapid warming”—when air uncertainty in estimating climate forcing even larger.” temperatures rose by about 1°C after 1980—via Another assessment of the issue was provided by analyses of “aerosol optical depth measurements from Ghan et al. Rosenfeld (2000) studied there was a significant 50-year downward trend in pollution tracks downwind of urban/industrial this parameter that “has globally averaged 0.” model predictions and if estimates of future climate Cleaning up significantly polluted skies.” Hence.51 ± 0. In explanation for this observation “is that increases in commenting on this research. where they determined that “mean and hence the temperature of our planet. “the great radiative surface climate forcing over mainland uncertainty in the radiative forcing must be reduced if Europe of about 1 Wm-2 that “most probably strongly the observed climate record is to be reconciled with contributed to the recent rapid warming in Europe. the authors state from 3 Wm-2 to -1 Wm-2.” They rightly produced by the contemporaneous increase in warn that lack of inclusion of the consequences of atmospheric CO2 concentration. falls right in the mid-range of a similar solar radiative In reviewing these and other advances in the field perturbation documented by Satheesh and of anthropogenic aerosol impacts on clouds.” which represents there was “a statistically significant increase of solar irradiance under cloud-free skies since the 1980s. (2008) deliberations “poses additional uncertainty beyond presented “observational evidence of a strong decline that already recognized by the Intergovernmental in aerosol optical depth over mainland Europe during Panel on Climate Change. these important phenomena in climate change In a more recent study. with a global mean forcing estimated to be of to 30 Wm-2. equivalent to a reduction of 2. both Although this surface-cooling influence is huge. “Clearly. it of which effects tend to cool the globe.” and “both the forcing [of this well be real. Ruckstuhl et al. Charlson Ramanathan (2000) in their study of the effects of et al.” than does the carbon dioxide that is concurrently Another pertinent observation comes from emitted to them.84 Wm-2.” They say clear-sky solar radiative heating for the winters of man-made aerosols “have a strong influence on cloud 1998 and 1999 decreased at the ocean surface by 12 albedo. 58 . (2001). Canada and Australia. who reviewed numerous mainland Europe for the past quarter-century. His Wm-2 per year.16 Wm-2. [which] now totals 20 Wm-2. After performing their own analysis of the forcing was approximately 0. it led to a total warming. who studied both the positive six specific locations and surface irradiance radiative forcings of greenhouse gases and the measurements from a large number of radiation sites negative radiative forcings of anthropogenic aerosols in Northern Germany and Switzerland.” suppressed precipitation by inhibiting further They also concluded that the most probable coalescence and ice precipitation formation. in droplets. can change are to be useful in formulating emission provide an even greater impetus for climate warming policies. the decline in solar radiation the same order (but opposite in sign) as that of reception discovered by Stanhill and Cohen could greenhouse gases.

2001. M.. S.. V.K.” As a result.K.N. Weller. Y. 2000. P.” According to Sokolik. Climate change: a case study over India..A. 2008. The evidence is dear contrails created by emissions from jet aircraft. Additional information on this topic.5. A. Geophysical Research Letters 35: 10. Rosenfeld. References Capaldo. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 5279-5293.1029/2008GL034228.... Impact of ship emissions on the microphysical. Durkee. M. A physically based estimate of radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. L. Minnis.C.. H. Science 292: 2025-2026. Behrens..K.. B. H.C. “the magnitude and even the sign of dust net direct radiative forcing of climate remains unclear. and shape of dust particles from ground-based and aircraft measurements? (3) How does one adequately measure and model light absorption by mineral particles? (4) How does one 59 . R. Ruckstuhl. C. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 61: 9-18. R. Zhang. M. 2004. O... K. Ohmura. who with the help of nine colleagues summarized the sentiments of a number of scientists who have devoted their lives to studying the subject. ship tracks created by ocean-going vessels. C. Bugliaro.. Kulmala. M. Abdul-Razzak. A.. and Charlson.. Ayers. and Facchini. Mayer. D. M. Seinfeld. Nature 401: 257-259. Journal of Climate 17: 1671-1685.. optical and radiative properties of marine stratus: a case study. Satheesh. Contrails.A. Nature 405: 60-63...J. Norris..R. Hegg. 1998.. S. and Cohen.G.. and Ramanathan. Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution. S. as was made strikingly clear by Sokolik (1999). 2000. Nyeki. J. Science 287: 1793-1796. Effects of ship emissions on sulphur cycling and radiative climate forcing over the ocean. Schreier. 2001. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. A. Cloud albedo enhancement by surface-active organic solutes in growing droplets. Kokhanovsky. Has northern Indian Ocean cloud cover changed due to increasing anthropogenic aerosol? Geophysical Research Letters 28: 3271-3274. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 107: 255-278. Sokolik notes state-of-the-art climate models “rely heavily on oversimplified parameterizations” of many important dust-related phenomena. K. Corbett. naturally produced aerosol—dust.org/ subject/a/aerononbioanthro. P. B. Bovensmann. J. Hobbs. D.C. Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences.199-23. and Phan.. J. R. and air pollution from terrestrial sources all have effects on temperatures that rival or exceed the likely effect of rising CO2 levels. the group concludes. including: (1) How does one quantify dust emission rates from both natural and anthropogenic (disturbed) sources with required levels of temporal and spatial resolution? (2) How does one accurately determine the composition.. R. R. With the progress that has been made in recent years in reducing air pollution in developed countries. Laulainen. 1998. Laaksonen. Dust is about as natural and ubiquitous a substance as there is.J. Coen.... Leung. G. Saylor.php.R. A.. H. Kasibhatla. Fischbeck... Measurements of ship-induced tracks in clouds off the Washington coast. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 6: 4925-4942. Mannstein. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 23. and Zaveri.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! Anthropogenic aerosols plainly have a major effect on climate. Vuilleumier.co2science. Reshaping the theory of cloud formation. A. Toon. Durr.. Non-Biological (Natural) We conclude our section on aerosols with a brief discussion of a non-biological. 1999. Chapman. R. Facchini. and climate. C.P. Easter. Aerosol and cloud effects on solar brightening and the recent rapid warming. “while ignoring others.A. Fuzzi. size. One might think we would have a pretty good handle on what it does to earth’s climate as it is moved about by the planet’s everactive atmosphere. 2. L. Ghan. M. Eyring. there are a number of unanswered questions about airborne dust.H. K.. S.S.J. and Zelenka. N. M. can be found at http://www. J. and Nielsen.206..J.. But such is not the case. Mircea. A. 2001. it is possible the lion’s share of the warming has likely been produced by the removal from the atmosphere of true air pollutants.. How pollution suppresses rain.. Philipona. Science 287: 1763-1765. and Burrows. 1999. cirrus trends. and Pandis. Matzler. A. Stanhill.C.. S. P.. Ferek. D. J.J. Nenes. S.. P. Large differences in tropical aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere and Earth’s surface. 2001. Nature 400: 743-746. Heimo.V. R. R. Sahai. L. Palikonda.D. Wehrli. P. V. Charlson. 2006. 2000..8. E.W.

“use[d] high-resolution spectra change.” The airborne dust on earth’s climate.” not a direct consequence of regional environmental Vogelmann et al. and parameters (such as soil type.” But “there is Wm-2 change in the globally averaged surface IR little firm evidence to support either of these forcing caused by greenhouse gas increases since preindustrial times. Vogelmann et al. which. which and theoretical studies. Sokolik makes conditions in the late 1960s and early ‘70s.” based on measurements made by the Marine1998 in the Barbados trade winds show large Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer aboard interannual changes in the concentration of dust of the NOAA Ship Ronald H. (2003) presented It is easy to understand why Sokolik says “a evidence based on an ensemble of integrations with a challenge remains in relating dust climatology and the general circulation model of the atmosphere—forced processes controlling the evolution of dust at all only by the observed record of sea surface relevant spatial/temporal scales needed for chemistry temperature—which suggested that the “variability of and climate models.” And in a massive understatement of 60 . and so on (Otterman. resulting in a needed to provide “missing information” on input further reduction in the region’s vegetative cover.” especially African summer monsoon to oceanic forcing when it comes to trying to discern the effects of amplified by land-atmosphere interaction. 1974. to adequately measure light absorption by mineral (1986) attributed the drought to large-scale particles is still an “outstanding problem. which has figured does one quantify airborne dust properties from prominently in discussions of climate change ever satellite observations? since it began to experience extended drought In discussing these questions. “are comparable to or larger than the 1 to 2 attributable to human land-use impacts.” to obtain the IR radiative forcing at the surface for In a companion article. darkly. weaken the continental 25 Wm-2 (Sokolik et al..” investigations. 2001) despite their change in Sahel rainfall during the past century was potentially large forcing. Prospero and Lamb aerosols encountered in the outflow from northeastern (2003) report that measurements made from 1965 to Asia. can cause Africa. by favoring the establishment of deep differences in the surface IR flux [of] between 7 and convection over the ocean. highly varied optical to warmer-than-average low-latitude waters around properties that. while Lamb (1978) and Folland et al.” (4) how observations. 1996. success of this analysis led them to conclude that “the Vogelmann et al. (2003) reiterate that “mineral recent drying trend in the semi-arid Sahel is attributed aerosols have complex. however.” while at the same convergence associated with the monsoon and time acknowledging that “only a few large-scale engender widespread drought from Senegal to climate models currently consider aerosol IR effects Ethiopia.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! fact. noting that: (1) what is studies of the drought attributed it to anthropogenic currently known (or believed to be known) about dust factors such as overgrazing of the region’s fragile emissions “is largely from micro-scale experiments grasses. 1998). Charney. represent the light absorption by aerosol particles Building on the insights provided by these latter suspended in the atmosphere. Tegen et al. Jacobson.” which values.” does one model complex multi-layered aerosol Another aspect of the dust-climate connection stratification in the dust-laden atmosphere? (6) How centers on the African Sahel.” and (5) it atmospheric circulation changes triggered by “remains unknown how well these measurements multidecadal variations in sea surface temperature.” for until this challenge is met.. was challenged by Jackson and (3) improvements in methods used to determine some Idso (1975) and Idso (1977) on the basis of empirical of these parameters are also “sorely needed. This work led prior year’s rainfall in the Soudano-Sahel. and physical the importance of aerosol IR forcing which should be properties of dust to its life cycle in the air? (5) How included in climate model simulations. say that these results “highlight link the ever-evolving optical. rainfall in the Sahel results from the response of the we will but “see through a glass. scenario. anthropogenic in nature or otherwise. chemical. Brown during the Aerosol African origin that are highly anticorrelated with the Characterization Experiment-Asia. which tends to increase surface albedo. in their several hundred years and that all variability is words. for equal loadings. They say them to conclude that “daytime surface IR forcings the 2001 IPCC report “assumes that natural dust are often a few Wm-2 and can reach almost 10 Wm-2 sources have been effectively constant over the past for large aerosol loadings.g.” (2) new global data sets are was envisioned to reduce precipitation. Initial some interesting observations. This soil moisture) required to model dust emission rates. surface roughness.” They further concluded that “the secular (e. Giannini et al.. 1975).

M.J. and Minnett. D.) Idso. Flatau. Toon. Ding. Maskell.K... References Charney. Sokolik.T. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 8813-8826. Nature 380: 419-422. can be found at http://www. 1998. and their findings demonstrate why: The IPCC assumptions are wrong. 2003. J. P. Challenges add up in quantifying radiative impact of mineral dust.A. and Bergstrom. Houghton. Palmer. 1975.J.J. Global direct radiative forcing due to multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols. UK.M.G.N. 2003. van der Linden. I. 1986..1029/2002GL016829. P.. Cambridge University Press. Surface albedo and desertification. P.. and Parker. Noguer. Sokolik. C. Jacobson.” they say. I. 1901-85.A. K. P. R. Xiaosu.J. Markowicz. I. Otterman.W. Giannini. Folland. Science 186: 531-533. P. Saravanan. Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures. Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. C. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. (Eds. 2001..J.co2science.J.B. 1974. Large-scale tropical Atlantic surface circulation patterns associated with sub-Saharan weather anomalies. and Johnson.. A. R. A. M. Tegen. 1975.B. Lacis. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Baring high-albedo soils by overgrazing: a hypothesized desertification mechanism.. O.. D. and Lamb. P. 2001.Z. M. Prospero.php. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 101: 193-202. (Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.Feedback!Factors!and!Radiative!Forcing! ! assumptions. African droughts and dust transport to the Caribbean: climate change implications.D.. and Chang. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 103: 369-370.). I. Tellus 30: 240-251. 1999. J. Science 302: 1027-1030. EOS: Transactions. A. Modeling the radiative characteristics of airborne mineral aerosols at infrared wavelengths. J.org/ subject/a/aerononbio nat. 1978.M. Vogelmann. R.. 1977. Jackson. D. Additional information on this topic.. S. Science 189: 1012-1013. Dynamics of desert and drought in the Sahel. Nature 320: 602-607. Cambridge..N. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 1551-1568. 2003. A note on some recently proposed mechanisms of genesis of deserts. J. and Fung.N. K. and Idso. Szczodrak.B. Y. 1996. Griggs. The influence on climate forcing of mineral aerosols from disturbed soils.E. Clearly. S. 61 . Lamb. American Geophysical Union 80: 578. Science 302: 1024-1027. much remains to be learned about the climatic impacts of dust before anyone can place any confidence in the climatic projections of the IPCC. T.

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3. and the burial of organic carbon. M.1. Solomon. Section 8). A more detailed look at the most recent 50 million years of earth’s thermal and CO2 history was prepared by Pagani et al.4. 2007-I. Fingerprints 3. the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration was approximately 1400 ppm and the oxygen isotope ratio (a proxy for temperature) was 63 .. Rothman reports that the CO2 history “exhibits no systematic correspondence with the geologic record of climatic variations at tectonic time scales. Observations: Temperature Records 3.5. Antarctic Introduction The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims to have found evidence in paeloclimatic data that higher levels of atmospheric CO2 can cause or amplify an increase in global temperatures (IPCC.6.1. (Eds.4). They found about 43 million years ago.B. Averyt.1. Tignor and H. along with considerations related to the isotopic content of organic carbon and strontium in marine sedimentary rocks. The IPCC further claims to have evidence of an anthropogenic effect on climate in the earth’s temperature history during the past century (Chapters 3. Past 1. M. Z. Marquis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. in data from land-based temperature stations and satellites (Chapter 3). the data depict a long-term decline in the air’s CO2 content. Arctic 3. Manning.000 Years 3. Urban Heat Island 3. Paeloclimatic Data 3.4. however. (2005). Satellite Data 3. D.” A visual examination of Rothman’s plot of CO2 and concomitant major cold and warm periods indicates the three most striking peaks in the air’s CO2 concentration occur either totally or partially within periods of time when earth’s climate was relatively cool. we critically examine the data used to support each of these claims. Chen.) Cambridge University Press.3. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. In this chapter. M.7. Section 9. Over the last 175 million years.L. Miller. Cambridge. volcanic and metamorphic degassing. 9).2. K. References IPCC. UK. starting with the relationship between CO2 and temperature in ancient climates. in the pattern (or “fingerprint”) of more recent warming (Chapter 9. earth’s atmospheric CO2 concentration fluctuated between values that were two to four times greater than those of today at a dominant period on the order of 100 million years. S. Paeloclimatic Data Rothman (2002) derived a 500-million-year history of the air’s CO2 content based on considerations related to the chemical weathering of rocks. Qin. Chapter 6). and in the temperature records of the Artic region and Antarctica where models predict anthropogenic global warming should be detected first (Chapter 11. The results of this analysis suggest that over the majority of the half-billion-year record.3 ! Observations: Temperature Records ! 3. 2007-I.

(See Figure 3. temperatures of the last decades of the twentieth century were “unprecedented” or “unusual” only because they were cooler than during past interglacial peaks. the air’s CO2 content did not begin to rise until 400 to 1.0 per mil. They said their data indicate that “the CO2 decrease lags the temperature decrease by several thousand years. the peak temperatures of the four interglacials that preceded it were. over the next ten million years. the higher temperatures of the past four interglacials cannot be attributed to higher CO2 concentrations caused by some non-human influence because atmospheric CO2 concentrations during all four prior interglacials never rose above approximately 290 ppm. In fact. there were relatively small variations in atmospheric CO2 content but relatively large variations in oxygen isotope values.000 ppm over the next two million years. Following the third rise in CO2. Next. the three most dramatic warming events experienced on earth were the terminations of the last three ice ages. earth’s air temperature always rose well in advance of the increase in atmospheric CO2.7 per mil from about 33 to 26 Ma BP. as the rise in CO2 was followed by the sharpest drop in temperature of the entire record. (2005). And third. and for each of these climatic transitions. during which time the air’s CO2 content declined. studied the beginnings rather than the ends of glacial ages. the air’s CO2 concentration experienced three huge oscillations on the order of 1000 ppm from peak to valley.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Figure 3. but in the direction opposite to what the greenhouse theory of global warming predicts.1 tells us three things about the current warm period. also found the current interglacial is the coolest of the five most recent such periods. temperature always dropped well before the decline in the air’s CO2 concentration.000 years after the planet began to warm. about 1. In the first two oscillations. “argue for a decoupling between global climate and CO2. only to rise again by a few hundred ppm. indicating little change in temperature over that period. experienced about a 500 ppm increase around 32 Ma BP. Second.4 per mil (implying a significant rise in temperature). Fischer et al. First. exhibiting an uninterrupted slow decline. Then. From 24 Ma BP to the end of the record at 5 Ma BP. In fact.” Moving closer to the modern era. Another research team. Temperature history derived by Petit et al. temperatures seemed to respond. more than 2°C warmer than that of the one in which we currently live.1.” Petit et al. temperature did not appear to respond at all to the change in CO2. according to Pagani et al. All of these many observations. the current temperature of the globe cannot be taken as evidence of an anthropogenic effect since it was warmer during parts of all preceding interglacials for which we have good proxy temperature data.1. (1999) from an ice core extracted from the Russian Vostok drilling station in East Antarctica. whereas the air’s CO2 concentration today stands at nearly 380 ppm. (1999) examined trends of atmospheric CO2 and air temperature derived from Antarctic ice core data that extended back in time a quarter of a million years. Likewise. on the other hand. (1999). around 26 Ma BP. The corresponding CO2 concentration. Following this large drop in temperature between 34 and 33 million years before present (Ma BP). They discovered that during all glacial inceptions of the past half million years. however. both up and down. refuting – three times – the CO2-induced global warming hypothesis. after which it dropped 1. on average. the oxygen isotope ratio hovered around a value of 2. 64 Over this period. the oxygen isotope ratio dropped to about 1. Mudelsee (2001) determined that . Petit et al.) Figure 3.

-M. J.200 and 1. The results of their tedious but meticulous analysis led them to conclude that “the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years. that CO2 doesn’t cause global warming.. when working with a high-resolution temperature and atmospheric CO2 record spanning the period 60 to 20 thousand years ago. 1999..000 years.. !40Ar. 1998). These observations seem to undermine the IPCC’s claims that the CO2 produced by the burning of fossil fuels will lead to catastrophic global warming.P. one of the statistical tests they performed on the data suggested that the shifts in the air’s CO2 content during these intervals followed the shifts in air temperature by approximately 900 years. On the other hand. (2003). also avoid the seemingly clear implication of their own findings. However.” citing in this regard the work of Fischer et al.” Specifically. 2003). they indicate that “the highest correlation of CO2 and deuterium. Fischer et al.” The previously cited Caillon et al. Science 299: 1728-1731.000 years over the past 420. 1998. rather than vice versa. J.000 and 5. J. Staufer et al. yields a lag of CO2 to deuterium of 800. respectively. Other studies have also demonstrated this reverse coupling of atmospheric CO2 and temperature (e. 1999. Petit et al... 1600. 1998. Severinghaus. When temperature is found to lead CO2 by thousands of years.. much less the catastrophic type that is predicted by the IPCC. 2000.. (2005). Caillon et al. on the importance of CO2 as a key amplification factor of the large observed temperature variations of glacial cycles. (2000) discovered four distinct periods when temperatures rose by approximately 2°C and CO2 rose by about 20 ppm. the CO2 content of the air gradually rose by approximately 25 ppm in almost linear fashion between 8. Results of their analysis revealed a coupling of Antarctic temperature and CO2 in which they obtained the best correlation between CO2 and temperature “for a lag of CO2 of 1900 years.. in their words. Siegenthaler et al. They. and Lipenkov. (1999). 1987.. considered the CO2 perturbations to have been caused by the changes in climate. (1999) determined that after the termination of the last great ice age. “confirms that CO2 is not the forcing that initially drives the climatic system during a deglaciation.Y. Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across Termination III. Indermuhle et al. 2001. There is no way these real-world observations can be construed to suggest that a significant increase in atmospheric CO2 would necessarily lead to any global warming. which they argue “can be taken as a climate proxy. the ratio of deuterium to hydrogen) data derived from an ice core in Antarctica. during both glacial terminations and inceptions (Genthon et al.200 years..000 years ago when atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by just over 10 ppm at a time when temperatures in both hemispheres cooled. too.300 to 5. 65 . During certain climatic transitions characterized by rapid warmings of several degrees Centigrade. Raymo et al.. Monnin et al. Compared with the mean conditions of the preceding four interglacials.g. which occurred about 240. with use of a 20-ky window for each termination. Cheddadi et al. who analyzed CO2 and proxy temperature (!D.. and 2800 years. 2003. Steig (1999) noted cases between 7. (1998) observed the atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from ice core records typically varied by less than 10 ppm. they note that “this value is consistent with estimates based on data from the past four glacial cycles. there is currently 90 ppm more CO2 in the air and yet it is currently more than 2°C colder than it was then. Mudelsee. Monnin et al. Jouzel. J. Nevertheless.Observations:!Temperature!Records! variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged behind variations in air temperature by 1. (2001) and Caillon et al. Indermuhle et al. (2003) measured the isotopic composition of argon – specifically.” Indermuhle et al. thus providing constraints about the timing of CO2 and climate change” – in air bubbles in the Vostok ice core over the period that comprises what is called Glacial Termination III. where temperature is the independent variable that appears to induce changes in CO2. N. V. Caillon et al. over a period of time that saw a slow but steady decline in global air temperature.. while a second statistical test yielded a mean CO2 lag time of 1. stubbornly state that the new findings “do not cast doubt . 2001. Kang. over the course of glacial terminations V to VII.” This finding. Another pertinent study is that of Siegenthaler et ! al..200 years ago. which were followed by slower coolings that returned the climate to essentially full glacial conditions. We find such disclaimers disingenuous.. it is extremely likely that CO2 plays only a minor role in enhancing temperature changes that are induced by something else.. Barnola.” In addition. Gagan et al. References Caillon.000 years ago.

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Bradley. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. M.) Cambridge University Press. 2001).. 2003. 1998. 2007-I. and Hughes. P. UK. 1999.” Mann was named an editor of The Journal of Climate. 2004) and Mann and Jones (2003).E. Mann. S. and limitations.) Gone were the difficult-to-explain Medieval Warming and the awkward Little Ice Age. References IPCC. Mann and Jones.3 kyr” will be questioned and tested again and again in the present report. (See Figure 3. Asia. 67 . 2003). and Hughes. and it subsequently appeared in Al Gore’s movie.S. The hockey stick graph first appeared in a 1998 study led by Michael Mann. Tignor and H. (1998. R. a young Ph. Qin. a major professional journal. Mann. We then present a thorough examination of temperature records around the world to test the IPCC’s claim that there was no Medieval Warm Period during which temperatures exceeded those of the twentieth century.D. We start here with an examination of the work of Mann et al. Miller. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (later published as Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (National Assessment Synthesis Team. Mann and his colleagues used several temperature proxies (but primarily tree rings) as a basis for assessing past temperature changes from 1000 to 1980. from the University of Massachusetts (Mann et al.1.L. and since the IPCC continues to rely upon and defend it in its latest report (see IPCC.K. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. The effect was visually dramatic.E. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. The Mann study gave the Clinton administration the quick answer it wanted to the argument that natural climate variations exceed whatever effect human activity might have had in the twentieth century by claiming. The Clinton administration featured it as the first visual in the U. quite simply. 1999. Marquis. Mann was named an IPCC lead author and his graph was prominently displayed in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR. Nature 430: 105. We return to Antarctica and the Arctic at the end of this chapter to discuss more recent temperature trends. the Arctic. M. pp. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Averyt. North America. Solomon.K. 2001)). signaling the new order of things to the rest of his profession. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Europe. 1998.E.1029/2003GL017814. 2007-I.2. D. that even the very biggest past historic changes in temperatures simply never happened. we devote some space here to explaining its unusual origins and subsequent rejection by much of the scientific community. 2004.. which captured the attention of the world in the early years of the twenty-first century and upon which the IPCC still relies heavily for its conclusions. Bradley. Nature 392: 779-787.2. Corrigendum: Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. uncertainties. M. M.D.. The Hockey Stick One of the most famous pieces of “evidence” for anthropogenic global warming (AGW) brought forth in recent years was the “hockey stick” diagram of Michael Mann and colleagues (Mann et al. (Eds. 1998). “An Inconvenient Truth. and Jones. M. Mann gave us nine hundred years of stable global temperatures—until about 1910. Mann et al. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences.. Chen.2. M. Then the twentieth century’s temperatures seem to rocket upward out of control.) Because the graph played such a big role in mobilizing concern over global warming in the years since it was first released.S.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! The notions that the warming of the second half of the twentieth century was “unprecedented” and that temperatures during the twentieth century were “the warmest in at least the past 1. R. (See Figure 3.. Cambridge.B. Z. M. Mann. 466-471).. 1999. K. M. and finally South America. starting with data from Africa and then from Antarctica. Manning. Mann et al.1. 3.1.S. They then grafted the surface temperature record of the twentieth century onto the pre-1980 proxy record.

McIntyre and McKitrick learned that the Mann studies give by far the heaviest weight to tree-ring data from 14 sites in California’s Sierra Nevada Mountains. that paper was titled “Detecting the Aerial 68 Fertilization Effect of Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment in Tree Ring Chronologies” (Graybill and Idso.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Figure 3. with the data refereed by the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology (McIntyre and . high-elevation bristlecone pine trees (which can live 5.2. incorrect calculation of principal components and other quality control defects. 1993). p. The “hockey stick” graph was severely critiqued by two Canadian nonscientists who were well trained in statistics—metals expert Stephen McIntyre of Toronto and economist Ross McKitrick from Canada’s University of Guelph (McIntyre and McKitrick. obsolete data.” In their exchanges with the Mann research team. on the margins of both moisture and fertility. McIntyre and McKitrick requested the original study data from Mann. Significantly. It was provided—haltingly and incompletely—indicating that no one else had previously requested the data for a peer review in connection with the original publication in Nature. geographical location errors. Using corrected and updated source data. At those sites. slow-growing.1. The growth ring data from those trees were collected and presented in a 1993 paper by Donald Graybill and Sherwood Idso. The ‘hockey stick’ temperature graph was used by the IPCC to argue that the twentieth century was unusually warm (IPCC-TAR 2001. Graybill and Idso specifically pointed out in their study that neither local nor regional temperature changes could account for the twentieth century growth spurt in those already-mature trees. This was published in Energy & Environment. McIntyre and McKitrick demonstrated that removing the bristlecone pine tree data eliminates the distinctive rise at the end of the “hockey stick.” Mann and his coauthors could hardly have escaped knowing the CO2 reality. since it was clearly presented in the title of the study from which they derived their most heavily weighted data sites. 2005). ancient. 2003. McIntyre and McKitrick recalculated the Northern Hemisphere temperature index for the period 1400–1980 using Mann’s own methodology. Trees like the high-altitude bristlecone pines. They found the data did not produce the claimed results “due to collation errors.000 years) showed a strong twentieth century growth spurt. But CO2 acts like fertilizer for trees and plants and also increases their water-use efficiency. All trees with more CO2 in their atmosphere are very likely to grow more rapidly. unjustifiable truncation or extrapolation of source data. 3). are likely to exhibit very strong responses to CO2 enrichment—which was the point of the Graybill and Idso study.

it is defined as “an interval between AD 1000 and 1300 in which some Northern Hemisphere regions were warmer than during the Little Ice Age that followed” (p. it still defends and relies on it.2 is shown in Figure 3. It appears in a series of graphs on page 467. 2006).2. The third category includes studies that are based on data related to parameters other than temperature. Triangles denote studies where the MWP was evident in the study’s data. As can be seen from the figure. This real-world fact conclusively demonstrates there is nothing unnatural about the planet’s current temperature. 2003). But that it occurred and was a global phenomenon is certain. 69 . within a more generalized 800 to 1300 AD warm era. such as precipitation. and that whatever warming occurred during the twentieth century was likely caused by the recurrence of whatever cyclical phenomena created the equal or even greater warmth of the MWP. too. One can disprove the IPCC’s claim by demonstrating that about 1. Critiques by Soon and Baliunas (2003) and McIntyre and McKitrick are reported briefly but both are dismissed.2. 469). with temperatures at their lowest. the Mann study was fundamentally wrong.2ºC below the 1961 to 1990 mean and significantly below the level shown by instrumental data after 1980” (p. Mann and his team were forced to publish a correction in Science admitting to errors in their published proxy data. there are literally hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific articles that bear witness to this truth. Figure 3.. The peak timeframe of all studies occurs around 1050 AD. That claim. but they still claimed that “none of these errors affect our previously published results” (Mann et al. its consequences were manifested in several ways. The Medieval Warm Period appears only in quotes in the index and body of the IPCC 2007-I report. Circles denote studies where the scientists who conducted the work provided qualitative data that enable one to determine which of the two periods was warmer. In the text it is referred to as “the so-called ‘Medieval Warm Period.000 years ago.2. there was a world-wide Medieval Warm Period (MWP) when global temperatures were equally as high as or higher than they were over the latter part of the twentieth century. hence. since the Little Ice Age was near its nadir 400 years ago. evidence of the MWP has been uncovered at locations throughout the world. A second question often posed with respect to the MWP is: When did it occur? A histogram of the timeframe (start year to end year) associated with the MWP of the studies plotted in Figure 3.” report McIntyre and McKitrick. despite there being approximately 25 percent less CO2 in the atmosphere than there is today.2 illustrates the spatial distribution of these studies. but not by how much. but this conclusion is hardly surprising. and by a National Academy of Sciences report (NAS. was contradicted by later work by McIntyre and McKitrick (2005).’” it says “medieval warmth was heterogeneous in terms of its precise timing and regional expression” and “the warmest period prior to the 20th century very likely occurred between 950 and 1100. by statistics expert Edward Wegman (Wegman et al. “The major finding is that the [warming] in the early 15th century exceed[s] any [warming] in the 20th century.1ºC and 0. Squares denote studies where the scientists who conducted the work provided quantitative data that enable one to determine the degree by which the peak temperature of the MWP differed from the peak temperature of the Current Warm Period (CWP). Where does the IPCC stand today regarding the “hockey stick”? Surprisingly.3. the first because “their qualitative approach precluded any quantitative summary of the evidence at precise times. The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change has analyzed more than 200 peerreviewed research papers produced by more than 660 individual scientists working in 385 separate institutions from 40 different countries that comment on the MWP. but the data did not provide a means by which the warmth of the MWP could be compared with that of the CWP. The NAS skipped lightly over the errors of the hockey-stick analysis and concluded it showed only that the twentieth century was the warmest in 400 years. 949). 466). p.05ºC)” (IPCC. In other words. but temperatures were probably between 0.’” In a boxed discussion of “Hemispheric Temperatures in the ‘Medieval Warm Period.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! McKitrick. 2004). In the glossary (Annex I). 2006). revealing the truly global nature of this phenomenon. It was the claim that temperatures in the second half of the twentieth century were the highest in the last millennium that properly generated the most attention.” and the latter by citing a defense of Mann by Wahl and Ammann (2006) “who show the impact on the amplitude of the final reconstruction is very small (~0. 2007I. The degree of warming and climatic influence during the MWP varied from region to region and..

2.25 0. or about the same as.4. but the vast majority of the temperature differentials are positive.2.25 -3.5.2.2. that claim is seen to be false. however. we have plotted the frequency distribution of all MWP-CWP temperature differentials from all quantitative studies (squares) shown in Figure 3.2 to create Figure 3.4.01°C. Here we have plotted the number of studies in Figure 3. 7 6 5 4 3 2 With respect to how warm it was during this period. and (c) neither quantitative nor qualitative determinations can be made.2. indicating the MWP was warmer than the CWP.2.75 2. the CWP. which we have done in Figure 3. of studies that allow one to identify the degree by which peak Medieval Warm Period temperatures either exceeded or fell short of peak Current Warm Period temperatures.CWP Temperature Differences 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 Figure 3. Histogram showing the timeframe associated with all MWP studies plotted in Figure 3. We can further generalize the superior warmth of the MWP by analyzing the qualitative studies in Figure 3.75 Temperature Difference: MWP-CWP (°C) Figure 3. The vast majority of studies indicates the MWP was warmer than the CWP. in 0. Plot of the locations of proxy climate studies for which (a) quantitative determinations of the temperature difference between the MWP and CWP can be made (squares).25 -2.75 3. Based upon the synthesis of realworld data presented here (and hereafter).2.2 in which the MWP was warmer than.2. 70 . presented by the authors of the original works. while the median is 0.2.2.2. with the studies simply indicating that the Medieval Warm Period did indeed occur in the studied region (triangles).3.5°C increments.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Figure 3. It is often claimed that temperatures over the latter part of the twentieth century were higher than those experienced at any other time over the past one to two millennia.90°C.75 1.25 -1. cooler than.2. This figure reveals there are a few studies in which the MWP was determined to have been cooler than the CWP. (b) qualitative determinations of the temperature difference between the MWP and CWP can be made (circles). Quantitative MWP . based upon data 1 0 -4.25 -0. The average of all such differentials is 1. The distribution.

we highlight the results of studies from regions across the globe that show the existence of a Medieval Warm Period. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. equivalent to. 2001. 2003.B. S. and Ammann. Additional information on this topic. NAS 2006. and Jones. National Assessment Synthesis Team.. References Graybill. Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years. 2006.5.gov/108/home/07142006 Wegman Report.1029/2003GL017814. Geophysical Research Letters 32 L03710. R.2. R.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! Qualitative MWP .L. and Idso.E. Nature 430: 105. C.) Cambridge University Press. DC.K. Cambridge University Press. Washington. P. D. Mann et al. and Said. D. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. DC.CWP Temperature Differences 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 MWP < CWP MWP ! CWP MWP > CWP Mann.M. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Corrections to Mann et al. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences. Mann. 1993. Mann. M. 1999. Tignor and H.K. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia.org/subject/m/ subject_m. Washington. Y.co2science. Cambridge.A. Huffman (1996) constructed a climate history of the region based on archaeological evidence acquired from various Iron Age settlements. D. 2004. W. In the course of completing this project. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Cambridge UK. Scott.php under the heading Medieval Warm Period.house. dated relic evidence of the presence of cultivated sorghum and millets was considered by Huffman to be so strong as to essentially prove that the climate of the subcontinent-wide region must have been warmer and 71 . S. E. Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence. 1998. McIntyre.. and Hughes. IPCC-TAR 2001. and Baliunas. Marquis. and Hughes. 3. can be found at http://www. Bradley. 2007. Z. S. 2005. M. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 7:81–95. and McKitrick. M. Qin. Report for the U. and limitations.. Climate Research 23 (2): 89-110. Wegman. UK. Bradley.S. Detecting the aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment in tree ring chronologies. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. M.2. principal components and spurious significance. Hockey sticks. Corrigendum: Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Robustness of the Mann. R. Manning. (Eds. Nature 392: 779-787. Climate Change 85: 33-69.pdf. Global Change Research Program. National Academy Press. Available at http://energycommerce. The distribution of studies that allow one to determine whether peak Medieval Warm Period temperatures were warmer than. S.S. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. uncertainties. 2007-I. ! Figure 3. R.000 Years. Bradley.E. IPCC.D. M. McIntyre. Africa Based on the temperature and water needs of the crops that were cultivated by the first agropastoralists of southern Africa. Cambridge University Press.2.B. 2003.S. Averyt. In the rest of this section. S. Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. K. Solomon.W. and McKitrick. or cooler than peak Current Warm Period temperatures. M. including reviews on the Medieval Warm Period not discussed here. Energy & Environment 14: 751-777. Wahl. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2. Ad Hoc Committee Report to Chairman of the House Committee on Energy & Commerce and to the Chairman of the House sub-committee on Oversight & Investigations on the Hockey-stick Global Climate Reconstructions. Chen. Miller. 2003. Soon.R.. (1998) proxy data base and northern hemisphere average temperature series. E. M.E. US House of Representatives. M. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762.

Tyson et al. which they augmented with five-yearresolution temperature data that they reconstructed record. 4.500 years based on pollen and carbon similarity between their results and those of isotope data obtained from sediment cores retrieved Verschuren et al. produced conditions up to 3-4°C hotter than those of 19.2 and 2.300-year period AD 622-1922.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! long interval of coolness that preceded the Roman wetter than it is today from approximately AD 900Warm Period]. 7. most pronounced negative !18O deviation in the entire South Africa).” They also note that “the Little Ice record of oxygen and carbon-stable isotope data from Age covered the four centuries between AD 1500 and a well-dated stalagmite of Cold Air Cave in the 1800 and at its maximum at AD 1700 represents the Makapansgat Valley (30 km southwest of Pietersburg. indicating lower water levels during the ‘Little precision thermal ionization mass spectrometry using 230 234 Ice Age’. Holmgren et al.2In a similar study. (2001) derived and 2. intermediate values and varied strongly from 1150 to Holmgren et al.” Thereafter. 12. The most striking of these from Lakes Kamalete and Nguene in the lowland correspondences occurred over the period AD 980 to rainforest of Gabon. “A/H woody taxa were significantly underrepresented in the [aquatic/hygrophytic] pollen ratios showed pollen assemblage. about AD 1300. who obtained a quasi-decadal the Little Ice Age]. (<40 years) paleoenvironmental reconstructions for Of particular interest in this regard is the strong the past 1. in the lake-level low stands. during the 72 . (2007) derived high-resolution Island Crater.5ka [thousand years before present. (2003) developed a 25. Kondrashov et al. This work revealed. (2005) applied correlation of +0. network over the period 1981-1995.5°C higher than that prevailing at the scale resolution of their results provides a “sharper time of their analysis of the data. including cycles at 256. several statistically significant “maximum warming at Makapansgat at around 1250 periodicities were noted. and that periods. This record revealed the interannual and interdecadal periodicities in historical existence of a significantly warmer-than-present records of annual low.” of these cycles.000-year temperature record for South Africa that Southern Oscillation variations.” This new temperature record from far below from color variations in banded growth-layer the equator (24°S) reveals the existence of all of the laminations of the stalagmite that were derived from a major millennial-scale oscillations of climate that are relationship calibrated against actual air temperatures evident in data collected from regions surrounding the obtained from a surrounding 49-station climatological North Atlantic Ocean. they report that “all inferred the Th/ U method.and high-water levels on the period that began prior to AD 1000 and lasted to Nile River over the 1. 64. (2003) provided strong evidence for transitions” in tropical east Africa.000-year 870 cal yr BP. With respect to the causes the present.” In addition. (2000).” after which “maximum Other evidence for this conclusion comes from Holocene cooling occurred at AD 1700 [the depth of Tyson et al. They also note that the annuallevel that was 2. which had a Two years later. for these crops cannot be grown in this part of 2. which followed the which are much too cool and dry. when lake-level was at an 1. that “cooling is evident from ~6 of the TRFO [Tropical Rainforest] biome.5 and 1300. 1200 [the Medieval Warm Period. and more reliable determination of climatic-regime Lamb et al. which is a sub-basin of Lake Naivasha. including the the hydrologic fingerprint of the Medieval Warm documentation of fairly abrupt shifts in river flow at Period in Central Kenya in a study of pollen data the beginning and end of the Medieval Warm Period.2-year oscillations are likely due to El Niñoa 3. suggesting decadal-scale fluctuations temperature history from a stalagmite retrieved from in the water balance during the ‘Medieval Warm Makapansgat Valley’s Cold Air Cave based on !18O Period’. They found a dramatic warming at the longer-period oscillations could be due to approximately AD 900. report that the In doing so. the three researchers say that the 4. that the 7-year cycle revealed several multi-century warm and cold may be related to North Atlantic influences. are associated with decreases in the score interspersed notes).” to 2.100-year low and after a sharp rise at ~1200 cal yr BP.78 that was significant at the 99 advanced spectral methods to fill data gaps and locate percent confidence level. followed by warming between 1. The nine researchers state that 1200.5 ka [the Roman Warm Period] and briefly at ~AD southern Africa under current climatic conditions. lower A/H pollen ratios “characterized the interval from ~500 to 300 cal yr and !13C measurements dated by 14C and highBP. notably between 500 and 300 words of the nine researchers (together with our cal yr BP.2 years. (2000). Dark Ages Cold Period]. when temperatures reached a astronomical forcings. obtained from a sediment core taken from Crescent Ngomanda et al.

if the coherency is strictly ! interpreted. and Vincens. R. References Buntgen. Springer. Compte-Rendu de l’Academie des Sciences.. Schwartz. Recent origin of large part of the forest cover in the Gabon coastal area based on stable carbon isotope data. and.. A. 2001. Elenga.” They report “the long-term PDSI reconstruction indicates generally drier conditions before ~1350. Luterbacher. Schwartz. 2002) indicate that Moroccan drought changes are broadly coherent with well-documented temperature fluctuations including warmth during medieval times. J. 1999. Placing these findings within a broader temporal context. Frank.. J. 1996. 2006) and the Northern Hemisphere (Esper et al. Cook. Elenga et al.W. Reynaud-Farrera et al. it appears that (1) the Medieval Warm Period did occur over wide reaches of Africa. (2007) used Cedrus atlantica ringwidth data “to reconstruct long-term changes in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over the past 953 years in Morocco.. 2002. 1994)..... 2004). 1994. Giresse. E. D. Palaeoenvironments. Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability.” noting that “evergreen rainforest expansion occurs during wet intervals. Palaeoclimatology. can be found at http://www.. Long-term drought severity variations in Morocco.. Northwest Africa. A.” after which there were “dry conditions since the 1980s. Vincens et al.. Maley. geochemical (Delegue et al. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. it suggests that the warmth of the MWP was likely even greater than that of the late twentieth century. 2006.. Wirrmann et al. P.” Esper et al.. M. D. M.. Journal of Climate 19: 5606-5623... H. 2004. F. Fuhr. 181-196. P. and Servant. I. J. F.H. A. pp. and generally wetter conditions until the 1970s. with contraction during periods of drought. Palaeoecology 109: 345-356. Esper. they determined that “the driest 20-year period reconstructed is 1237-1256 (PDSI = -4. J.. additionally note that “rainforest environments during the late Holocene in western equatorial Africa are characterized by successive millennial-scale changes according to pollen (Elenga et al. diatom (Nguetsop et al. J. Ngomanda et al. In: Battarbee. Mariotti..org/ subject/a/africamwp. 1994. Pollen evidence of Late Quaternary vegetation and inferred climate changes in Congo. low lake levels. 2001. serie 2a: 345-356. and recent anthropogenic warming. R. Verstege. Elenga. Vincens.D. Nievergelt...” adding that “1981-2000 conditions are in line with this historical extreme (-3.M..” It appears that in this part of Western Equatorial Africa. palaeoclimates and landscape development in Central Equatorial Africa: A review of major terrestrial key sites covering the last 25 kyrs. U. 2001). D. L. H.. Diagramme pollinique holocene du Lac Kitina (Congo): mise en evidence de changements paleobotaniques et paleoclimatiques dans le massif forestier du Mayombe. Oecologia 129: 106-113.co2science. Palaeogeography. state that “the positive co-variation between lake level and rainforest cover changes may indicate a direct vegetational response to regional precipitation variability. Frank.E. 2004).. 2007. A. and Esper.R. J. Paris. 1998. Gasse. Elenga. Martin.) Past Climate Variability through Europe and Africa. E. while much the opposite was the case during the Medieval Warm Period. Maley. D. and Xoplaki. Vincens. In light of these research findings. J..php. and sedimentological data (Giresse et al. 1998). 1996. and Stickley. and low evergreen rainforest presence. Giresse et al.. 755-2004. Summer temperature variations in the European Alps.” In addition. the Little Ice Age was a time of low precipitation. (Eds.. and Brenac. and Farrera. H. Esper. A. Wirrmann. cold in the Little Ice Age. and Nasi. A. D. D.1029/2007GL030844.. 1994. the six researchers note that “millennium-long temperature reconstructions from Europe (Buntgen et al. U.C. Ngomanda et al.Observations:!Temperature!Records! In discussing their findings.9).. Late Quaternary palaeoenvironments in Lake Barombi Mbo (West 73 . D. a transition period until ~1450. de Namur. Schwartz. A..” which latter coherency would tend to suggest that the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period was at least as great as that of the last two decades of the twentieth century throughout the entire Northern Hemisphere.... Maley and Brenac.. 2005. C. and Schweingruber.2). when fluctuating wet-dry conditions led to fluctuating lake levels and a greater evergreen rainforest presence. Buntgen.” and that “these changes were essentially driven by natural climatic variability (Vincens et al. Delegue. C. 1996. Bertraux. and (2) the Medieval Warm Period was probably more extreme in Africa than has been the Current Warm Period to this point in time. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10. Science 295: 2250-2253. Additional information on this topic.” Also of significance.

J. A. H. H... Quaternary International 33: 55-60.. 2001. Huffman.. L.. South African Journal of Science 97: 49-51. A. Alexandre.D.F. together with preceding climatic events of similar intensity and duration. Vincens. Servant-Vildary. Wirrmann.000 years in Southern Africa. and the abundance of Fragilariopsis curta in particular—which parameters. A. Southern Congo. K. “are associated with increased proximity to an area of primary production.. Fontugne. J. D. D. magnetic susceptibility.. and Servant. Giresse. 2004. A. Makaya. serie 2a 322: 749-755. Partridge. Servant-Vildary.. Schwartz. Vincens. paleoenvironments and climatic changes in the forests of western Cameroon during the last 28. K. Palaeogeography. The Holocene 13: 285-292. Late Holocene paleoclimatic changes in Western Central Africa inferred from mineral abundance in dated sediments from Lake Ossa (Southwest Cameroon). A. P... M. A. Bentaleb. Sithaldeen. which runs parallel to the coast of the western Ross Sea from McMurdo Sound north to .. Talma. D. Palaeoclimatology. Lowland rainforest response to hydrological changes during the last 1500 years in Gabon. M..3. biogenic silica content. at a point that is currently about 80 km landward of the location of its present edge. A preliminary 3000-year regional temperature reconstruction for South Africa. and Kossoni. Holmgren. 74 Verschuren. and Ghil.. and Heiss. Kondrashov. and Wirrmann. Maley. I.. in their words. Nguetsop. 2003.. 622-1922). Quaternary Research 56: 275-287. Vegetation dynamics. Western Equatorial Africa. Forest response to climate changes in Atlantic Equatorial Africa during the last 4000 years BP and inheritance on the modern landscapes. Meunier. P. Maley. J. C. 1998.” Hall and Denton (2002) mapped the distribution and elevation of surficial deposits along the southern Scott Coast of Antarctica in the vicinity of the Wilson Piedmont Glacier.P. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1. Tyson.D. Cameroon) during the Holocene. O. Elenga. J. in their words.. (2002) likewise analyzed a sediment core removed from the eastern Bransfield Basin just off the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Oslisly. K.1029/2004 GL022156.R. 1996. P. Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 591-609. Darbyshire. 2007. I. D. G. Scott.F. Feliks.-D. S. Paris..Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Cameroon) deduced from pollen and carbon isotopes of organic matter. D. D. Palaeogeography. G. Compte-Rendu de l’Academie des Sciences. I. Chepstow-Lusty. 1998. Khim et al. V. I. Archaeological evidence for climatic change during the last 2000 years in southern Africa. Cooper. D. M. Ngomanda.. and radiocarbon (14C) age. J. A. which puts the time of maximum Ice Shelf retreat in close proximity to the historical time frame of the Medieval Warm Period.A.. total organic carbon content.. J. 2000.R. and Svanered. B. such as the sea-ice zone”—at about 750 14C yr B. H.. Nguetsop. and Rabenkogo. R. R.700 14C years. South African Journal of Science 96: 121-126. Bertaux. Maley. Sedimentary environmental changes and millennial climatic variability in a tropical shallow lake (Lake Ossa. 3. The Little Ice Age and medieval warming in South Africa.A. Maley. Tyson. Elenga. and Tyson. Schwartz. Lamb. 1996. F. a high resolution diatom record from equatorial Cameroon.. and Kossoni. Palaeoecology 107: 65-78. Vegetation response to rainfall variation and human impact in central Kenya during the past 1100 years. J. East Antarctica. J. Palaeoclimatology. and Verschuren.. Laird.D..P. and Cumming. T. Journal of Biogeography 26: 879-885.. S. 2001. Karlén.. Bertauz. Jolly. Y.. Bertaux. D.S.. Quaternary Research 67: 411425. and Wirrmann. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 99: 157-187. Geophysical Research Letters 32: doi:10. Holmgren..D. Holmgren. Servant.. T.2. J. 210Pb geochronology. including grain size.. Reynaud-Farrera.. 2005. and Brenac.: analyse pollinique des sediments du Lac Ossa. and de Namur. M. Late Holocene climatic changes in west Africa..P. K. L. Vegetation et climat dans les forets du Sud-Ouest Cameroun depuis 4770 ans B. W. In analyzing the core’s characteristics over the past 5. the two scientists observed a peak in absolute diatom abundance in general. Palaeoecology 218: 257-285.. Moberg. Lundblad.... the presence of the “Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm period. A. P. M. Lee-Thorp. 2000. A.N... 1999. J. Late Holocene climatic changes in Western Equatorial Africa inferred from pollen from Lake Sinnda. Antarctica Hemer and Harris (2003) extracted a sediment core from beneath the Amery Ice Shelf..100 years. A. Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 2311-2326. Persistent millennial-scale climatic variability over the past 25. N. Nature 403: 410-414. 2003.C.000 years B. Oscillatory modes of extended Nile River records (A. Mariotti. all of which data clearly depicted. D. Quaternary Research 50: 34-45. P. K. Reynaud-Farrera. 2005. Martin.

they normalized the results at each site by dividing its several volcanic-induced sulfate deposition values by the value produced at that site by the AD 1816 Tambora eruption. is the millennial-scale oscillation of climate that is apparent in much of the record. which they identified by both visual inspection and DNA analysis as coming from southern elephant seals. (2004) as reporting evidence from Antarctic ice-core !D and !18O data “in support of a Medieval Warming-like period in the Southern Hemisphere. Signy Island experienced the relative warmth of the last vestiges of the Roman Warm Period.” They additionally cite Goosse et al. however.000-year history of that region’s climate. (2003) used oxygen isotopes preserved in authigenic carbonate retrieved from freshwater sediments of Sombre Lake on Signy Island (60°43’S.” The researchers conclude by postulating that “changes in the extent and intra-Antarctic variability of volcanic depositional fluxes may have been consequences of the establishment of a Medieval Warming-like period that lasted until about AD 1500. as delineated by McDermott et al. Citing Budner and Cole-Dai (2003) in noting that “the Antarctic polar vortex is involved in the distribution of stratospheric volcanic aerosols over the continent. This work revealed that the general trend of temperature at the study site has been downward. observe in the Northern Hemisphere. there is an indication of late twentieth century warming. 1998).Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! Granite Harbor.” as Hall and Denton describe it. “the Wilson Piedmont Glacier was still less extensive than it is now. (2005) derived a detailed history of Holocene volcanism from the sulfate record of the first 360 meters of the Dome Concordia ice core that covered the period 0-11. Castellano et al. Noon et al. By these means they obtained data from 14 different locations within their study region—which they describe as being “well south” of the seals’ current “core sub-Antarctic breeding and molting grounds”—that indicate that the period of time they denominate the Seal Optimum began about 600 BC and ended about AD1400.000 years ago. 45°38’W) in the Southern Ocean to construct a 7. the latter of which dates they describe as being “broadly contemporaneous with the onset of Little Ice Age climatic conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and with glacier advance near [Victoria Land’s] Terra Nova Bay. say “this warm/cold step could be like a Medieval Climate Optimum-like to Little Ice Age-like transition. Castellano et al.” A year later.” Describing this phenomenon in terms of what it implies. after which they compared their results for the past millennium with similar results obtained from eight other Antarctic ice cores. (2001) on the basis of a high-resolution speleothem !18O record from southwest Ireland. reduced the variability of volcanic depositions. Hall et al. Then comes the Dark Ages Cold period. “as late as 890 14C yr BP. This work revealed that most volcanic events in the early last millennium (AD 1000-1500) exhibited greater among-site variability in normalized sulphate deposition than was observed thereafter. however. we support the hypothesis that the pattern of volcanic deposition intensity and geographical variability [higher values at coastal sites] could reflect a warmer climate of Antarctica in the early last millennium. Finally. delayed by about 150 years with respect to Northern Hemisphere Medieval Warming. Before doing so.” Castellano et al. isolating the continental area during cold periods and facilitating the advection of peripheral air masses during warm periods (Krinner and Genthon. after a thousand-year gap in the data.” demonstrating that the climate of that period was in all likelihood considerably warmer than it is currently. Two years later. This climate cycle is such that approximately 2. The chronology of the raised beaches they studied was determined from more than 60 14C dates of incorporated organic materials they had previously collected from hand-dug excavations (Hall and Denton. starting in about AD 1500. which is also contemporaneous with what McDermott et al. the record the dates helped define demonstrated that near the end of the Medieval Warm Period.5 kyr BP. Of most interest to us.” and that “the re-establishment of colder conditions. and which they analyzed for age by radiocarbon dating. say that assuming the intensity and persistence of the polar vortex in both the troposphere and stratosphere “affect the penetration of air masses to inland Antarctica. 1999). in order to reduce deposition differences among sites that might have been induced by differences in local site characteristics. after which the Medieval Warm Period appears at the same point in time and persists for the same length of time that it does in the vicinity of Ireland. whereupon the Little Ice Age sets in just as it does in the Northern Hemisphere.” 75 . but with still a long way to go before conditions comparable to those of the Medieval Warm Period are achieved. (2006) collected skin and hair (and even some whole-body mummified remains) from Holocene raised-beach excavations at various locations along Antarctica’s Victoria Land Coast.

1999.. Hansson. H. B.) Volcanism and the Earth’s Atmosphere. coincident with the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). and Hawkesworth. 2004).co2science. (2007) presented methyl chloride (CH3Cl) measurements of air extracted from a 300-m ice core that was obtained at the South Pole... before rising again to the modern atmospheric level of 550 ppt.. M. B. References Budner.. Hemer. H.. Khim.H... Khim. 2003. 2004.” which would have included both the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Warm Period. Denton. Atmospheric Environment 33: 1305-1321. J.. More recently. 1999. The number and magnitude of large explosive volcanic eruptions between 904 and 1865 A.P.” They go on to say that “ice core CH3Cl variability over the last two millennia suggests a positive relationship between atmospheric CH3Cl and global [our italics] mean temperature. Yoon.: Quantitative evidence from a new South Pole ice core. Geology 31: 127-130. A. G. 2005. Antarctic Peninsula.P. A. V. Masson-Delmotte. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 103: 10. Hall. Goosse. the [Ross] ice shelf survived this period. Baroni. Yoshida et al. H.J. C. can be found at http://www. B-K. This conclusion. Holocene elephant seal distribution implies warmer-than-present climate in the Ross Sea. Mattey. J.” As best we can determine from the graphical representation of their data.K. Antarctica: evidence for Holocene deglaciation of the western Ross Sea.R. or unprecedented about the current level of earth’s warmth..L. Becagli. and Cole-Dai. Le Boeuf.. Rampino. C.. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: 10. (Eds. Fichefet.213-10. M..L.php. Hall. Atmospheric methyl chloride.. Holocene volcanic history as recorded in the sulfate stratigraphy of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C (EDC96) ice core.D.I.1029/2003GL019140. Kang. M. C.217. Quaternary Research 58: 234-245. Journal of Quaternary Science 14: 641-650. Holocene history of the Wilson Piedmont Glacier along the southern Scott Coast. during the MCA is approximately 533 ppt. G. Hence. Severi. Overturf. 2001. and Harris.org/ subject/a/antarcticmwp. more than 90% of the CH3Cl sources and the majority of CH3Cl sinks lie between 30°N and 30°S (Khalil and Rasmussen. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10..R. suggests mid-Holocene ice-shelf retreat. M. 2003. B.” they say “it is likely that climate-controlled variability in CH3Cl reflects changes in tropical and subtropical conditions. and Oppenheimer. and that “if.Y.” and that they “decreased to a minimum during the Little Ice Age cooling (1650-1800 AD). M. Climate Dynamics 14: 741-758. Renssen.. and Denton.. J.T. and Genthon. New relative sea-level curves for the southern Scott Coast. Antarctica. G. Unstable climate oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin. and Stenni. T.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! In describing the significance of their findings. which is within 3 percent of its current mean value of 550 ppt and well within the range of 520 to 580 ppt that characterizes methyl chloride’s current variability. The Holocene 12: 619-627. B. Hoelzel. it would have been exposed to environments substantially warmer than present. F. Castellano. 2006.1029/JD005259. and Denton. In: Robock. 2002. R... unnatural. Hutterli. B.L. and Bahk. GCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum surface climate of Greenland and Antarctica.L.. we may validly conclude that the mean peak temperature of the MCA (which we refer to as the Medieval Warm Period) over the latitude range 30°N to 30°S—and possibly over the entire globe—may not have been materially different from the mean peak temperature so far attained during the Current Warm Period. V. and Rasmussen. and Udisti.A. Steffensen. Williams et al. A. Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a 76 . Morgan. Krinner.H. G. In describing what they found. the researchers say “CH3Cl levels were elevated from 900-1300 AD by about 50 ppt relative to the previous 1000 years. and Topf. Hall.H.J. J. Delmotte. 1999. D.. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Antarctica. P. suggests there is nothing unusual.. and Italian researchers say they are indicative of “warmer-than-present climate conditions” at the times and locations of the identified presence of the southern elephant seal. C. McDermott.. covering the time period 160 BC to AD 1860. B. along with the findings of the other studies we have reviewed of the climate of Antarctica. C. A late medieval warm period in the Southern Ocean as a delayed response to external forcing. M. R. T.A. British. Additional information on this topic. the US. East Antarctica.A. as proposed in the literature. Sediment core from beneath the Amery Ice Shelf.” Noting that “today. Petit. M. 2002. Geophysics Monograph Series 139: 165-176.K.. Traversi. B. S. van Ommen. the peak CH3Cl concentration measured by Williams et al. E. 1998. Khalil. D. R.R.

and Saltzman.J. E. Williams. R.000 to 3..300-900 years BP. The Holocene 13: 251-263. Jiang et al. and Yantosea. their data suggest another absence of birds during what they call “a subsequent Little Ice Age. obtaining a 10. 2007. Arctic Dahl-Jensen et al. which indicates that higher temperatures prevailed during the period from 1. (2002).5-0. when the temperature rose by more than 1°C above the line describing the long-term downward trend to effect an almost complete recovery from the colder temperatures of the Dark Ages Cold Period. 2004.000 years ago).4. Zeng.000 to 7. M. indicated by an increase of organic matter in the lake sediment and confirmed by bird observations. reflect “variations in seabird breeding colonies in the catchment which influence nutrient and cadmium supply to the lake.. Noon. who derived a climatic history of the Holocene by analyzing the physicalchemical properties of sediments obtained from a small lake in southern Greenland. where they extracted a 3. Key to the study were biogeochemical data that.5-m-long sediment core from a lake (Raffels So) on an island (Raffles O) located just off Liverpool Land on the east coast of Greenland. C.000-year record that tells us much about the region’s climatic history. A 2000 year atmospheric history of methyl chloride from a South Pole ice core: Evidence for climate-controlled variability. with temperatures 1°C warmer and 0. during the Medieval Warm Period. In a non-Greenland Arctic study.” Wagner and Melles’ data reveal sharp increases in the values of the parameters they measured between about 1100 and 700 years before present (BP).000 years.S. M. there was a partial amelioration during the Medieval Warm Period. and Jones.700 years and then more consistently over the final 2.. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10.” which they note was “the coldest period since the early Holocene in East Greenland. Yoshida. Leng.. the climate was found to have cooled fitfully for about 1. ending with a final most recent value of approximately 6. they report that temperatures once again rose. Their data indicate that after the termination of the glacial period. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: 10. Starting from a maximum value of about 8. Y.400 years BP. Thereafter. but that the climate cooled thereafter until its culmination in the Little Ice Age. Oxygenisotope (ð18O) evidence of Holocene hydrological changes at Signy Island. however.5°C rise in temperature.1029/2004JD004951.000 years BP was marked by warmth and stability.” However. Wang. values of the most recent measurements are not as great as those obtained from the earlier Medieval Warm Period. in the words of the researchers. 2003. Aydin.E..” The Raffels So data also show signs of a “resettlement of seabirds during the last 100 years.” as they describe it. respectively. Tatum. Y. The most dramatic departure from this longterm decline was centered on about 850 years BP.1°C at 4. From 1. These data also clearly indicate that the Medieval Warm Period in this part of the Arctic was significantly warmer than it is there now. A third relevant Greenland study was conducted by Kaplan et al.700 years of the record. but that they “have decreased during the last decades. indicative of the summer presence of significant ! numbers of seabirds during that “medieval warm period.2. which had been preceded by a several-hundred-year period (Dark Ages Cold Period) of little to no bird presence. After the Little Ice Age. A three-dimensional global model study of atmospheric methyl chloride budget and distributions. P. which they analyzed for a number of properties related to the past presence of seabirds there.100 to 700 years BP than what has been observed over the most recent hundred years.Observations:!Temperature!Records! high-resolution speleothem ð O record from SW Ireland. (2002) analyzed diatom assemblages from a highresolution core extracted from the seabed of the north Icelandic shelf to reconstruct a 4. after which temperatures continued their descent into the Little Ice Age. which was associated with an approximate 1.7°C cooler than at present.1029/2006GL029142.H.3°C. Wagner and Melles (2001) also worked on Greenland. T. Science 294: 1328-1331. 18 3.B.600-year history of mean summer sea surface temperature at that location.5°C warmer than at present during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (4. They determined that the interval from 6. M. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were also documented in the record. temperatures steadily rose to a maximum of 2.J. V. 77 . (1998) used temperature measurements from two Greenland Ice Sheet boreholes to reconstruct the temperature history of this portion of the earth over the past 50.” These results thus clearly indicate that the Medieval Warm Period in this part of the Arctic was significantly warmer than current temperatures. maritime Antarctica.

” Seppa and Birks (2002) used a recently developed pollen-climate reconstruction model and a new pollen stratigraphy from Toskaljarvi—a tree-line lake in the continental sector of northern Fenoscandia (located just above 69°N latitude)—to derive quantitative estimates of annual precipitation and July mean temperature.” Finally.” Lastly. producing a 1.” . until a gradual warming trend began about 1800. However.9°C. which the authors say “display features of century-timescale climatic variation known from other proxy and historical sources. Schweingruber and Briffa. tenth to twelfth [Medieval Warm Period] and during the twentieth [Current Warm Period] centuries.240-year record of average summer temperatures for this Arctic region. As they describe it. (2001) analyzed sediment cores from Donard Lake. temperatures averaged 2.427-year proxy temperature history for the part of the Taimyr Peninsula of northern Russia that lies between 70°30’ and 72°28’ North latitude. and subfossil northern Swedish pines into a continuous and precisely dated chronology covering the period 5407 BC to AD 1997. 1996). This event signaled the onset of the Little Ice Age.8°C higher than at present. Over the entire period from AD 750-1990. they say “the climatic deterioration in the twelfth century can be regarded as the starting point of a prolonged cold period that continued to the first decade of the twentieth 78 century. Naurzbaev et al.” They also note that “the warm period around AD 1000 may correspond to a so-called ‘Mediaeval Warm Period. their reconstructions “agree with the traditional concept of a ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (MWP) and ‘Little Ice Age’ in the North Atlantic region (Dansgaard et al. (2002) assembled tree-ring widths from 880 living. This rapid warming of the thirteenth century was followed by a period of extended warmth that lasted until an abrupt cooling event occurred around 1375 and made the following decade one of the coldest in the record. (2002) developed a 2. This cold regime lasted until about 1950. based on a study of ring-widths of living and preserved larch trees..5°C. 1975) and in northern Fennoscandia (Korhola et al. including a warm ‘Roman’ period in the first centuries AD and a generally cold ‘Dark Ages’ climate from about AD 500 to about AD 900. is also “known from instrumental. while at the beginning of the thirteenth century. the tree-ring record displays several more of these relatively warmer and colder periods. 1975) show the strong similarity in timing of the MWP between the records.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Moore et al. in this part of the Arctic the Medieval Warm Period was also warmer than it is there currently. they report there is “a clear correlation between [their] MWP reconstruction and several records from Greenland ice cores.” as “average summer temperatures rose rapidly by nearly 2°C from 1195-1220 AD. which was followed by a dramatic cooling event in 1900 that brought temperatures back to levels similar to those of the Little Ice Age. dead. historical and proxy records.P.’ known from a variety of historical sources and other proxy records. consisted of the last two millennia.” where present means the last six decades of the twentieth century. 2000). anomalously warm decades with summer temperatures as high as 4°C occurred around AD 1000 and 1100. based upon the number of trees that were sampled. and that they can (2) serve as a basis for verifying climate model calculations. Canada. 0.” which “Little Ice Age..” and that “comparisons of a smoothed July temperature record from Toskaljavri with measured borehole temperatures of the GRIP and Dye 3 ice cores (DahlJensen et al.” Going back further in time. 1998) and the !18O record from the Crete ice core (Dansgaard et al..” In addition.” In doing so.400-year history of summer mean temperature for northern Swedish Lapland.. ending in the warmest decade in the record” with temperatures near 4. The most dependable portion of this record. They report that “the relatively warm conditions of the late twentieth century do not exceed those reconstructed for several earlier time intervals. they note that “July temperature values during the Medieval Warm Period (ca.” in their words. Briffa et al. Hence.. The strong association between these data and summer (June-August) mean temperatures of the last 129 years of the period then enabled them to produce a 7. 1996.) were ca. noting further that “it has been established that the main driver of tree-ring variability at the polar timber-line [where they worked] is temperature (Vaganov et al. Grudd et al. which lasted for 400 years. Donard Lake witnessed “one of the largest climatic transitions in over a millennium.. Baffin Island. whereupon temperatures warmed for about two decades but then tended downwards again all the way to the end of the record in 1990. they found that “the warmest periods over the last two millennia in this region were clearly in the third [Roman Warm Period]. Noting that temperature changes in high latitudes are (1) sensitive indicators of global temperature changes. 1998. 14001000 cal yr B.

Knudsen et al. Stoner.200 years by means of highresolution multi-proxy studies of benthic and planktonic foraminiferal assemblages.” with their data indicating that Lower Murray Lake and its environs were often much warmer during this time period (AD 1080-1320) than they were at any point in the twentieth century.” even in sea surface temperatures measured over the period 1948-2002.php. which has also been shown to be the case for Donard Lake (66.” In addition.. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.. 69°30’W).R. the washout indices [were] more than 4 times as high as those seen during the last century.25°N.” They found “the twelfth and thirteenth centuries were relatively warm. This work revealed that “the time period between 1200 and around 7. M. A record of climate over the last millennium based on varved lake sediments from the Canadian High Arctic. J.” This history indicated that “in the oldest part of the core (11301200). (2004) documented climatic changes over the past 1. 2008.” They then state that “this suggests that the Medieval Warm Period in Svalbard summer conditions [was] as warm (or warmer) as present-day.B.. Francus. References Besonen. P.. (1998.” Thereafter. 1999) and its thousand-year global extension developed by Mann and Jones (2003).5 to 2 meters at the end of each winter.” after which “a general temperature decrease in the area marks the transition to . stable isotopes.S. including the Medieval Warm Period.” Their data also reveal three other important pieces of information: (1) the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods were both warmer than the Current Warm Period has been to date.. With respect to these parameters. they report they have performed regular snow pit studies near the ice core site since 1997 (Virkkunen. they conclude that “the degree of summer melt was significantly larger during the period 1130-1300 than in the 1990s. Besonen et al.” and that “there is no clear indication of warming of water masses in the area during the last decades. (2) the “beginning of the end” of the Little Ice Age was somewhere in the vicinity of 1830. which is typically covered for about 11 months of each year by ice that reaches a thickness of 1. This further suggests the planet’s more modest current warmth need not be the result of historical increases in these two greenhouse gases. was characterized by relatively high bottom and surface water temperatures. (2001). Additional information on this topic.Observations:!Temperature!Records! With respect to the second of these periods. Grinsted et al. Bradley.” based on data obtained from a 121-meter-long ice core they extracted from the highest ice field in Svalbard (Lomonosovfonna: 78°51’53”N.org/ subject/a/arcticmwp.. The Holocene 18: 169-180. R. as a proxy for summer melt (1130-1990). 79 .. The studies reviewed above indicate that the Arctic—which climate models suggest should be sensitive to greenhouse-gas-induced warming—is still not as warm as it was many centuries ago during portions of the Medieval Warm Period. years BP. can be found at http://www. and ice-rafted debris found in three sediment cores retrieved from the North Icelandic shelf. M. and Abbott. 17°25’30”E).800 cal. consistent with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction of Moberg et al.co2science.” which likewise suggests that a large portion of the Medieval Warm Period was significantly warmer than the peak warmth (1990s) of the Current Warm Period.” In addition. BP. they say—citing seven other studies—that “field-work on other High Arctic lakes clearly indicates that sediment transport and varve thickness are related to temperatures during the short summer season that prevails in this region. when there was much less CO2 and methane in the air than there is today. and we have no reason to think that this is not the case for Lower Murray Lake. All of these observations are at odds with what is portrayed in the thousand-year Northern Hemispheric “hockey stick” temperature history of Mann et al. is not [our italics] registered in the proxy data. and (3) the Current Warm Period peaked somewhere in the vicinity of 1940. (2006) developed “a model of chemical fractionation in ice based on differing elution rates for pairs of ions . (2005).. (2008) derived thousand-year histories of varve thickness and sedimentation accumulation rate for Canada’s Lower Murray Lake (81°20’N. when very cold conditions were indicated by several proxies. 62°W) by Moore et al. 2004) and that “the very warm 2001 summer resulted in ! similar loss of ions and washout ratios as the earliest part of the core. indicating a high degree of runoff.” They also note that “minimum sea-surface temperatures were reached at around 350 cal.. they say “a modern warming of surface waters . they emphasize that “the warmth of the two centuries AD 1058-1157 and 950-1049 attests to the reality of relative mediaeval warmth in this region. W. which was “validated against twentieth-century instrumental records and longer historical climate proxies. the Little Ice Age..S. Patridge.

K. H.B.. Thesis. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. Clausen.H. Jiang. and Schweingruber. and Overpeck..S. (2000) developed a 6.D. H.H. J.M..A. Gundestrup. Yafeng et al. R. M. P. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Hong et al. Schweingruber.. tree-ring and other proxy sources. M. Past temperatures directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet.A. The Holocene 12: 657-665. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. E.S. Bradley.J. Nauka. Norsemen and modern man.. M. The Holocene 12: 137-147. 1998. Oulu. V.S. J. Late-Holocene summer sea-surface temperatures based on a diatom record from the north Icelandic shelf.G. M. and limitations. 2006. Karlén. D... and Birks. S. and Melles. Osborn.. K. China Using a variety of climate records derived from peat. and sea ice extent from the Lomonosovfonna ice core.D. F. A quantitative Holocene climatic record from diatoms in northern Fennoscandia. Jansen. N. E. G. 2004. A. Virkkunen..D. (1999) also observed a warm period between AD 970 and 1510 in !18O data obtained from the Guliya ice cap of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Palaeoceanographic changes off North Iceland through the last 1200 years: foraminifera. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10.J. pp. in response to climatic and oceanic changes.R.T. University of Oulu. Datsenko. Pohjola. Naurzbaev.C.A. P. and Jouzel. Dendroclimatic Study in Ural-Siberian Subarctic. Weckstrom. Rytter. Nature 433: 613-617. Holocene climate reconstructions from the Fennoscandian tree-line area based on pollen data from Toskaljavri.. T. 1975. ice core. E. and Briffa. H.. K. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences. 3.. Bradley. E. W. (2002) identified a period of exceptional warmth throughout China between AD 800 and 1100. Russia.. Knudsen. B. A. 1998. 2003. and Gudmundsdottir. Holmgren. 126° 22’ E). (Eds. P. lake sediment. Mann. A.P. Holmstrom. Svalbard summer melting. Bradley.D.. Little Ice Age recorded in summer temperature reconstruction from varved sediments of Donard Lake. Briffa. Vaganov. Wagner. T. 2002. G.S. J. S. uncertainties. Schweingruber. 2000.B. J. W. continentality.G. Asia 3. and Jones.. N. Hughen.5.and high-resolution proxy data.R. 2001.J.. A. Shiyatov. stable isotopes.. 2002. Vaganov. 1998. 43-66. A 7400-year tree-ring chronology in northern Swedish Lapland: natural climatic variability expressed on annual to millennial timescales. C. J. Berlin. and Miller. Sidorova. F.E.R. Dahl-Jensen. Martma.H.L.R. H.1029/2003GL017814.... Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 2231-2246. East Greenland.). M-S. F.. K. Knudsen. H. and Mazepa. Boreas 30: 228239. Nature 392: 779-787.S. K. diatoms and ice rafted debris.. Nature 255: 24-28.. 2002.L. K. Baffin Island. Shiyatov. and Hammer. Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years. Quaternary Research 57: 191-199. K. Climatic changes. Quaternary Research 58: 149-159. and Hughes. M. Bartholin. H. 2002. In: Jones. Seppa. Nature 391: 678-682. R. Eiriksson. N.E.. Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes. Science 282: 268-271. and Hughes. K.U. Finland. Mann. Clow..2.D. Hansen. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low. E.R. 2004. F. R.J.1.H..2. Wolfe.M. G. Canada. Similarly. Quaternary Research 54: 284-294. Summer temperatures in eastern Taimyr inferred from a 2427-year late-Holocene tree-ring chronology and earlier floating series. and Kromer. 2002.W. Springer-Verlag. Mosegaard.H. Holocene environmental variability in southern Greenland inferred from lake sediments. O. M. B. V. NATO ASI Series 141. and Erasto.E.J. J. and Balling.. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.. K. Snowpit Studies in 2001-2002 in Lomonosovfonna. 1996. Seidenkrantz. K... E.. and Vaganov. S. Gundestrup. The Holocene 12: 727-736. A. W.. Moore. Moberg.. Jones. Johnsen.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Briffa. P. T. within which they found evidence of “an obvious warm period represented by the high !18O 80 . 2005... Grudd. M. J..1029/2005JD006494. D. 1999. Germany. Mann. Svalbard. Jiang. P. M. 1996.K. L. and Isaksson.5. Miller. and Karlén. 2001.M.V. Johnsen.000-year !18O record from plant cellulose deposited in a peat bog in the Jilin Province (42° 20’ N. M. Tree-ring density network and climate reconstruction. N. Journal of Paleolimnology 25: 503517. Kaplan. Moore. S. Korhola. Novosibirsk. Grinsted.. and Eiriksson. Dansgaard. Jones.A.S. Yang et al. A Holocene seabird record from Raffles So sediments. Sonechkin...

Little Ice Age and 20th-century warming.” Bao et al. Man. and that “local historical chronicles support these data. with extreme January minimum temperatures fully 3. together with information about the presence of snow. In each case. this one from Jingdong Cave about 90 km northeast of Beijing. They found that between 200 and 500 years ago. moved gradually into the northern part of China. Wu and Dang. and frozen rivers over the past 1.000-year temperature history of the northeastern. Sheng (1990). they note there was a major dry period from AD 880-1260.” but that between 1.0°C higher than at present. Also working with a stalagmite. total organic carbon. sleet.” Shortly thereafter.400 years of dated sediments recovered from seven cores taken from three locations in Lake Huguangyan (21°9’N.3-0. southern and western sections of the Tibetan Plateau. (2002) studied the geochemistry of 1.300 years ago. they occurred near the end of the Roman Warm Period.270 years. suggesting that the climate of tropical South China was dry during the ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’. and the solid-liquid distribution coefficient of Mg. From these several studies. Beijing. pollen assemblages. Hong et al. distribution patterns of subtropical plants and cold events (Wang and Gong. all of the maximum-warmth intervals occurred during the Medieval Warm Period. Xu et al. “air temperature was about 1. Zhang. Man (1990. (2003) assessed the climatic history of the past 3. 2004).” Paulsen et al. 1998. the peak warmth of which was “about 0. Chu et al.” In addition. peat-cellulose !18O. glacier fluctuations.9-1. In the case of the northeastern sector of the plateau.2°C lower than that of the present.000 and 1. frost.” as their own data also suggest. magnetic parameters.Observations:!Temperature!Records! from around AD 1100 to 1200 which may correspond to the Medieval Warm Epoch of Europe. (2002) determined from a study of plant cellulose !18O variations in cores retrieved from peat deposits at the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau that from AD 1100-1300 “the !18O of Hongyuan peat cellulose increased. both subtropical and thermophilous plants. and it has been estimated that the annual mean temperature was 0.” In terms of timing. the dry-then-wet-then-dry-again MWP began about AD 965 and continued to approximately AD 1475. when CO2-induced global warming is projected to be most evident) for the region of China bounded by latitudes 27° and 40°N and longitudes 107° and 120°E. Ge et al. In addition. 110°17’E) on the low-lying Leizhou Peninsula in the tropical region of South China. in the case of the western sector. they further note that annual mean temperatures in that part of the country during the Medieval Warm Period must have been about 1.” Based on 200 sets of phenological and meteorological records extracted from a number of historical sources.5°C warmer than they are today. from whence they inferred the existence of a relatively wet period running from approximately AD 940 to 1200. (2000) also report that at the time of the MWP “the northern boundary of the cultivation of citrus tree (Citrus reticulata Blanco) and Boehmeria nivea (a perennial herb). (2003) utilized proxy climate records (ice-core !18O. 1998. many of which are described by Gong and Chen (1980).000 years obtained from historical documents.9°C warmer on a 10-year basis. and sedimentary pigments) obtained from 20 prior studies to derive a 2. citing De’er (1994). there was an equally aberrant but warm period that “corresponded to the Medieval Warm Period in Europe.000 years at 100-year intervals on the basis of !18O data. lending support to the global extent of these events. Ma et al. there was more than one prior 50-year period of time when the mean temperature of each region was warmer than it was over the most recent 50-year period. 2000. it is evident that for a considerable amount of time during the Medieval 81 . tree-ring widths. consistent with that of Jinchuan peat cellulose and corresponding to the ‘Medieval Warm Period’. lake water temperatures. and in the case of the southern sector they occurred during both warm periods.0°C higher than at present.6°C higher than present for 30-year periods. the Mg/Sr ratio. but over 0. (2003) produced a 2. 1994) argue for a warm period from the beginning of the tenth century AD to the late thirteenth century AD. ! Among the climatic episodes evident in their data were “those corresponding to the Medieval Warm Period.000-year history of winter half-year temperature (October to April. Their work revealed a significant warm epoch that lasted from the AD 570s to the 1310s. and Wen and Wen (1996). They report that “recent publications based on the phenological phenomena. tree-ring stable carbon isotopes. Qian and Zhu (2002) analyzed the thickness of laminae in a stalagmite found in Shihua Cave.” Considering the climatic conditions required to successfully grow these plants. ice-core CH4. (2003) used high-resolution !13C and !18O data derived from a stalagmite found in Buddha Cave [33°40’N. 109°05’E] to infer changes in climate in central China for the past 1.

H. and Wen. Beer. H. Braeuning. Chu.S.. The Holocene 10: 17. inferred from historical and stalagmite Additional information on this topic. K. including. and Zhang. China. H. Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River. 1996. Quaternary earlier high temperatures were caused by something Science Reviews 22: 691-701.G. 2000. The reconstructed temperature history revealed the existence of a number of climatic excursions.R. X. Evidence for the existence of the Medieval Warm Period in China. Wang. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10. Z. D. Fluctuation and characteristics of climate change in temperature of SuiTang times in China.. Russia Demezhko and Shchapov (2001) studied a borehole extending to more than 5 km depth. China: A reconstruction based on Mg/Sr records in a stalagmite. Climatic Change 26: 287-297. Chinese Science Bulletin 47: 1578-1584.. Xia.T. Y. Beijing. A.php. and Chen. Climatic Change 26: 289-297. D. Y. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica 4: 24-29.1029/2001GL014485. Y. A. 1990. 1998. Y. China. Chen. H. Little Ice Age climate near responsible for the warmth of today. M. T. Quaternary Sciences 1: 31-38. 2003.. 2003. H.co2science. T. Li. Zhang. the “Medieval Warm Period with a culmination about 1000 years ago. Li.Q.. during the past 2000 years. Sun. J. D.... 1990.. Shandong Education Press. and Zhu. De’er.. Temperature variations in the past 6000 years inferred from !18O of peat cellulose from Hongyuan. A. S..D. G...P. tropical South China. Y. Ge.Y. S. Wang. Tandong. Hong.E. and Yafeng. Hiller et al. X. and Zhu. T. and Ku. Decadal climatic variations recorded in Guliya ice core and comparison with the historical documentary data from East China during the last 2000 years. Hong. (2001) analyzed subfossil wood samples from the Khibiny mountains 82 . H. Lu. 1999. 2003. L. B. Y. whatever was responsible for them could be Qian.B. W. Wen..-L. 2000. 2003. Late Holocene temperature fluctuations on the Tibetan Plateau. H. Z. Zhang. M. Evidence for the existence of the medieval warm period in China. 1994. General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia. On the variation of the growing season and agriculture. Gu.2.. A preliminary exploration of the warmth available. Liu.... B. X. and Qin. Hong. Li. Leng. reconstructing an 80. References Bao. Zhou. J. W. Xu. P. J. China. Man. S. Man... and Wang. Man.. The Holocene 12: 511-516.-C.E. Liu. China. Yafeng.” Further north. 1980. Yang. other than high atmospheric CO2 concentrations. many parts of China exhibited warmer variability in central China over the last 1270 years conditions than those of modern times. Historical Geography 8: 1-15.000-year history of ground surface temperature in the Middle Urals within the western rim of the Tagil subsidence (58°24’ N. Quaternary Research 57: 109-119. Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in a 6000-year !18O time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. H.. including records.-C. Science Press. X. Winter-Half-Year Cold/Warm Change in Historical Period of China. Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 2335-2344. subject/m/mwpchina. 1998.. 1994. H. Chinese Science Bulletin 48: 395-400. Peng. Y. Zheng.. Z.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Paulsen.. Jiang. The Advance in Nature Science 10: 325-332. Jiang. W. 2002. The Holocene 13: 933-940. Z.. Since those revealed by high-resolution stalagmite records. and Bao. 3. S.. Q. F. Hong. Ji’nan. can be found at http://www. and Gong. H. Brauning.. and Yafeng. Z. Q. Ma. Lin.2. Johnson. Climate in Tang Dynasty of China: discussion for its evidence. Wu. B. 59°44’E). in their words. Climate Warm Period. Ku. Z. and Dang.R. Gong. The ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’ drought recorded in Lake Huguangyan. T. Historical Geography 7: 160-170. Climate Change in Historical Period of China. Y. 2004. Zhang. E..: 91-100. Beijing. Study on the cold/warm stages of Tang Dynasty and the characteristics of each cold/warm stage. Paleotemperature changes over the past 3000 years in eastern Beijing.. Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences 42 Supp.Z. China. The temperature of several typical periods during the Holocene in China. Quaternary Sciences 1: 20-30.T. 2002.5. Z. Z.W.org/ and coldness in Henan Province in the historical period. Q. 2002. G. and Liu.. 2002. reviews of newer publications as they become Sheng. Fang. Man.

as well as throughout the world. can be found at http://www.2. 2000. which corresponds to the MWP. 2001. F.” additionally noting that “the abnormally severe winters [of the LIA] were associated with the spread of Arctic air masses over the entire Russian Plain. A. uncertainties. Mann.” Additional information on this topic. The Holocene 11: 491-497. and Schweingruber. R. and limitations. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences. M. and palynological data.M. based on historical evidence. hydrologic evidence.R.8°C higher than today. M. 2002. Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Isvestiya. R. Bradley. E. dendrological data. Nature 392: 779-787.co2science. D. M.. Esper. Mann.000 years ground surface temperature history inferred from the temperature-depth log measured in the superdeep hole SG4 (the Urals.” which perhaps explains why the Mann et al. Science 295: 2250-2253.3. Other Asia Locations In addition to China and Russia.N. Russia). 2001. Cook.” In this endeavor. Naurzbaev.. Global and Planetary Change 29: 167-178. Bradley.200-year proxy temperature record (212 BC to 1996 AD) using treering data obtained from 118 trees near the upper timberline in Siberia.E. Medieval climatic warming recorded by radiocarbon dated alpine tree-line shift on the Kola Peninsula.K.S. Hiller. 2002.A. (2002). C.Observations:!Temperature!Records! on the Kola Peninsula of Russia (67-68°N. they report an MWP to LIA drop on the order of 1. References Demezhko. they were highly successful. Russia. they report large differences in a number of variables between the Little Ice Age (LIA) and MWP. E. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. 83 . Variation of early summer and annual temperature in east Taymir and Putoran (Siberia) over the last two millennia inferred from tree rings. In discussing their approach to the subject of global warming detection and attribution. They also say that “the frequency of severe winters reported was increased from once in 33 years in the early period of time. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries.” Finally. they note that the data they used to draw these conclusions were “not used in the reconstructions performed by Mann et al. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. and Hughes. and Hughes. T. Krenke. and Shchapov. who developed a 2. and Chernavskaya.M.5°C. J. 3.org/ subject/m/mwprussia. Climate changes in the preinstrumental period of the last millennium and their manifestations over the Russian Plain. and Vaganov..A. stating unequivocally that “the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age existed globally.. archaeological data. 1999.K.” and that “the Medieval optimum was the most pronounced warm climate phase on the Kola Peninsula during the last 1500 years. They determined that between AD 1000 and 1300 the tree-line was located at least 100-140 m above its current elevation. This observation. suggests that mean summer temperatures during this “Medieval climatic optimum” were “at least 0. the Russians state that “an analysis of climate variations over 1000 years should help … reveal natural ! multicentennial variations possible at present but not detectable in available 100-200-year series of instrumental records.” Krenke and Chernavskaya (2002) present an impressive overview of what is known about the MWP within Russia. 80..S. V. and Kremenetski. Boettger. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 38: S59S79. A.” and that “the warming at the border of the first and second millennia was longer in time and similar in amplitude.php. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 73177326. M.Yu. glaciological evidence. to once in 20 years in the LIA.H. the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) has been identified in several other parts of Asia.” Additional evidence for the Medieval Warm Period in Russia comes from Naurzbaev and Vaganov (2000).E. they concluded that the warming experienced in the twentieth century was “not extraordinary.5.500 years. temperature history of the past millennium does not depict the coolness of the LIA or the warmth of the MWP nearly as well as the more appropriately derived temperature history of Esper et al. Based on their results. Concentrating on data wholly from within Russia. M. 33-34°E) in an effort to reconstruct the region’s climate history over the past 1. With respect to the annual mean temperature of northern Eurasia. 1998. M. in their words.

1972. 1991. from 1. 1999). (2003). their data reveal the existence of a relatively cool climate. Western Himalaya. As the authors describe the situation. ring-widths increased once again.” Further to the east. however. together with the physical and geochemical properties of sediments.700 to 850 years ago. 1990. The LTM and RCS chronologies. they note there is an abundance of other evidence for the existence of the MWP in the Eastern Mediterranean as well. in the words of Esper et al. minimum tree ring-widths were reached that persisted well into the seventeenth century. but the amplitude of this trend is not comparable to the conditions around AD 1000. broad minima from 1600 to 1800. Issar and Makover-Levin. Carried back in time a full thousand years. Esper et al. while during the last 200 years there has been a rather steady warming. 1989) and in the northeastern Arabian Sea (von Rad et al. 1978. high Dead Sea levels (Issar et al. Subsequent to that time. in that it depicts the existence of both the Little Ice Age and preceding Medieval Warm Period. the new result—especially the LTM chronology. (1998. (2002b) report that “the twentiethcentury trend does not approach the AD 1000 maximum. at rates they say “cannot be observed during any other period of the last millennium. 1990. (2002a) to have been characteristic of the entire Northern Hemisphere. (2002b) used more than 200.000 and 1. and high levels of the Sea of Galilee (Frumkin et al. which has a much smaller variance than the RCS chronology—depicts several periods in the first half of the last millennium that were warmer than 84 . In addition. there was what they call an “amelioration of climate. 1989.’s data indicate the climate “became much cooler. as shown by Esper et al.” The latest contribution to Asian temperature reconstruction is the study of Esper et al. Then.. the SPL chronologies depict significant inter-decadal variations but no longer-term trends. Fritts. and between AD 900 and 1000.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Schilman et al. 74-76°E) and the Southern Tien Shan of Kirghizia (40°10’N. with the Medieval Warm Period being much more conducive to good tree growth than the Current Warm Period. Issar. “growing conditions in the twentieth century exceed the long-term average. (2003). in their words. 1999) and Mann and Jones (2003). Issar and Makover-Levin.” In fact.” Between AD 1000 and 1200. which are nowhere to be found in the Mann reconstructions. (2002a). who processed several extremely long juniper ring-width chronologies for the Alai Range of the western Tien Shan in Kirghizia in such a way as to preserve multicentennial growth trends that are typically “lost during the processes of tree ring data standardization and chronology building (Cook and Kairiukstis.” This grand result has essentially the same form as the Northern Hemisphere extratropic temperature history of Esper et al.” in addition to “a precipitation maximum at the Nile headwaters (Bell and Menzel.” indicative of its transition to Little Ice Age conditions. contained in two cores extracted from the bed of the southeastern Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Israel. 1996). (2002) explored the nature of climate change preserved in the sediment profile of an outwash plain two to three km from the snout of the Gangotri Glacier in the Uttarkashi district of Uttranchal.. 1981. including. At a pair of other Asian locations. Kar et al.” In doing so. As a result. 1991. 1996). Between 2. Hassan. 72°35’E) to reconstruct regional patterns of climatic variations in Western Central Asia since AD 618. According to their analysis. where they found evidence for the MWP centered on AD 1200. the Medieval Warm Period was already firmly established and growing even warmer by the early seventh century. on the other hand. and long-term increasing trends from about 1800 to the present. Ambrose and DeNiro. there is almost no comparison between the two periods. 1980). 1998. but Esper et al.000 ring-width measurements obtained from 384 trees at 20 individual sites ranging from the lower to upper timberline in the Northwest Karakorum of Pakistan (35-37°N. “high Saharan lake levels (Schoell. In discussing their findings. they used two techniques that maintain low frequency signals: long-term mean standardization (LTM) and regional curve standardization (RCS). Kar et al. 1976). (2001) analyzed foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotopes. growing conditions deteriorated. tree growth was exceptionally rapid. as well as the more conventional spline standardization (SPL) technique that obscures (actually removes) long-term trends. show long-term decreasing trends from the start of the record until about AD 1600..700 years ago.” during the transition from the depth of the Dark Ages Cold Period to the midst of the Medieval Warm Period. Towards the end of the twentieth century. Nicholson. “the main feature of the LTM and RCS Alai Range chronologies is a multi-centennial wave with high values towards both ends. which is vastly different from the hockey stick temperature history of Mann et al. and at about 1500.

Springer. which is known to greatly stimulate the growth of trees. Environment and Society in Times of Climate Change. Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies and the reconstruction of past temperature variability.K. pp. Israel. Climate Dynamics 21: 699-706. 36.E. E. pp.R. Germany. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Properly accounting for this very real effect would make the warmer-thanpresent temperatures of the first half of the past millennium even warmer. 1981. Kluwer Academic Publishers. P. I. Additional information on this topic. L. A.E. Israel Journal of Earth-Science 40: 219-223. Science 212: 1142-1145. Esper et al.. M. (Eds. Shiyatov. Heidelberg. J. Vegetation vis-à-vis climate and glacial fluctuations of the Gangotri Glacier since the last 2000 years. Cook. and Sekar B. Issar. H.). Graybill. and Makover-Levin. E.. Climate change and history during the Holocene in the eastern Mediterranean region. can be found at http://www. 1300 years of climatic history for Western Central Asia inferred from tree-rings. it would have been limited to inter-decadal scale variation and would have missed some of the common low frequency signal. M. and Brown. D. and Schweingruber. 1989.S. Climatic changes in Israel during historical times and their impact on hydrological.S.) Diachronic Climatic Impacts on Water Resources with Emphasis on the Mediterranean Region. D. References Ambrose.co2science. Geyh. C. J.) Water.S.. A. and Hughes. and Winiger. V. D. 1998. The Netherlands.G. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences. 1991. Toward the observation and interpretation of solar phenomena. 1999. 1990. Bhattacharyya. Climate change: detection and attribution of trends from long-term geologic data. D.. Current Science 82: 347-351. 1996. Wilson. M. In commenting on their important findings.A. H.A. B. In: Angelakis. Magaritz. Paleoclimatology and Paleometeorology: Modern and Past Patterns of Global Atmospheric Transport. Issar. and Wolf. The Netherlands. Wakshal.” We would also remark. 8-12. Dordrecht. In: Issar.K. M. and Menzel.H. S.’s LTM and RCS reconstructions. Dordrecht. 2002a.C.R. Holocene 1: 191-200. A.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! any part of the last century. Issar.. 55-75. 2004. Frumkin. R. Hassan.S. F. Germany. M..A. Bell. Mann. Temperaturesensitive Tien Shan tree ring chronologies show multicentennial growth trends. and DeNiro. The Holocene 12: 267-277. 113-128. Schweingruber. and Issar. Water Shall Flow from the Rock. N. Mann. Mazepa. and Sarnthein. Academic Press. Issar. (2003) remark that “if the tree ring reconstruction had been developed using ‘standard’ detrending procedures only. M. Carmi... and Kairiukstis. 1990. In: Leinen. M. Kar. E. 2003. with respect to the upward trend of their data since 1800. Bradley. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. and limitations. and Jones.D. R. NATO ASI Series.S. J. Climate changes during the Holocene in the Mediterranean region.php. Nature 392: 779-787. (Eds. M. Cook.. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences.S. A. Esper.1029/2003GL017814. M. A. Bradley. UK. Mann.. 1989. (Eds. I. 535-541. that a good portion of that trend may have been due to the aerial fertilization effect of the concomitantly increasing atmospheric CO2 content. 1991. than they appear to be in Esper et al. Tsoar. Loehle. and Zak. Fritts. pp. 2002b. F.S. Springer. Science 295: 2250-2253. uncertainties.H. and Hughes.. and Funkhouser.H. A. I. Dordrecht. Quaternary Research 31: 407-422. Ranhotra. R. G. Vol. P. Esper.J. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. relative to those of the past century.S. Ecological Modelling 171: 433-450. Climate and habitat reconstruction using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of collagen in prehistoric herbivore teeth from Kenya. Esper. F. 1976.E. Y. R.A. MA. A. Tree Rings and Climate. 2002.S.. 1972. Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories. Heidelberg. 2003. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762.S. A. The Netherlands. M. Kluwer. 1998. pp. Historical Nile floods and their implications for climatic change....J. and Levin. pedological and socio-economic systems. London. M. S. including reviews of newer publications as they become available..H. AFCRL F19628-69C-0077 and AFCRL-TR-74-0357. Govrin. 85 .org/ subject/a/asiamwp. Bedford. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia.S. A. Issar. Climate changes during the Upper Holocene in Israel.S. A.A. The Holocene climatic record of the salt caves of Mount Sedom. which has also been found to have been warmer than it is currently by McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) and by Loehle (2004). These periods include much of the latter half of the Medieval Warm Period and a good part of the first half of the fifteenth century. M.

3. 173200. in their words. U. B.400 years. 92-97..) The Geology of Lake Van. as opposed to the modern mean of 4. M. E.300 years and one spanning a period of 4. H.6°C. Hiller et al. Moving back towards land. Oxygen isotope analysis on authigenic carbonates from Lake Van sediments and their possible bearing on the climate of the past 10. they determined that temperatures there peaked at about 11°C during what they refer to as the “Little Climatic Optimum”— which we typically call the Medieval Warm Period— .8°C higher than today. Nicholson. Almogi-Labin. This record indicates that between AD 1000 and 1300. B. von Rad. The shorter core additionally revealed cooling pulses at tentative dates of 1. and Luz. F. 2003.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! McIntyre. Global climate instability reflected by Eastern Mediterranean marine records during the late Holocene.500 years ago. and Sirocko. The researchers state that this fact implies a mean summer temperature that was “at least 0. 1999. (2001) made detailed measurements of a number of properties of sedimentary material extracted from the bottom of a fjord on the west coast of Norway.” Applying this technique to sediments derived from a lake in the Cairngorms region of the Scottish Highlands. Bar-Matthews. The Netherlands. however. Rotterdam.T. U.500-year history of alpine tree-line elevation.J. pp.500.” Working in both Norway and Scotland.E. Mikalsen et al.000 years. “corresponds to the time when the Vikings succeeded in colonizing Iceland and Greenland.. pp. Palaeoclimatology. the larval-stage head capsules of which are well preserved in lake sediments and are. den Dulk. 1330 to 1600 that.400. Berner. Andren et al. S. Many of the diatoms of that period were warm water species that the scientists say “cannot be found in the present Baltic Sea. Palaeoecology 152: 129-161. Palaeoecology 176: 157-176. and Faure.A. (2001) were able to reconstruct a 1. 1980. V. 3. Palaeogeography. (2000) found evidence for a period of high primary production at approximately AD 1050. significantly warmer than the present mean of 4. Saharan climates in historic times. Kurtman. Corrections to the Mann et al.400 years. Palaeogeography. and more frequent storms associated with the ‘Little Ice Age’. (2001) analyzed dinoflagellate cyst assemblages in two sediment cores retrieved from the southeastern Barents Sea. Energy and Environment 14: 751-771. one spanning a period of 8. The longer of the two cores indicated a warm interval from about 8.” This flooding. at about AD 1200.000 years before present.000 years documented in laminated sediments off Pakistan. For the bulk of the past 4. S. Balkema. and 2. M. M. M. Schoell. (2001) analyzed a sediment core obtained from Lake Atnsjoen. Europe Based on analyses of subfossil wood samples from the Khibiny mountains on the Kola Peninsula of Russia. They observed “a period of little flood activity around the Medieval period (AD 1000-1400). “had the highest bottom-water temperatures in Sulafjorden during the last 5000 years.2. Schulz. Brooks and Birks (2001) studied midges. Turkey. Palaeoclimatology. “widely recognized as powerful biological proxies for inferring past climate change. Ankara.. In addition. The Mineral Research and Exploration Institute of Turkey. R.” Moving from land to water. Riech. 2001. Schilman.3 months per year.. in a study of a welldated sediment core from the Bornholm Basin in the southwestern Baltic Sea. when they note there was “a major decrease in warm water taxa in the diatom assemblage and an increase in cold water taxa. (1998) proxy data base and Northern Hemispheric average temperature series.000 to 3.. A.” The warmth ended rather abruptly. they report. in their words. In: Williams.” This balmy period.D. ice cover lasted only two to three months per year. 300. and McKitrick.” which was followed by “a period of the most extensive flood activity in the Atnsjoen catchment. deriving a 4. August temperatures ranged between 6° and 8°C. however.500-year record of river flooding.” In eastern Norway. in their words. In: Degens. Voronina et al. H. 1978.” which latter diatoms are characteristic of what they 86 call the Recent Baltic Sea Stage that prevails to this day.000. Nesje et al. resulted from the “post-Medieval climate deterioration characterized by lower air temperature. Multiple monsoon-controlled breakdown of oxygen-minimum conditions during the past 30. In another marine study. thicker and more long-lasting snow cover.) The Sahara and the Nile.. the tree-line there was located at least 100 to 140 meters above its current location. followed by cooling pulses coincident with lowered salinity and extended ice cover in the vicinity of 5. and 100 years before present. deriving a relative temperature history of the region that spanned the last five millennia. (Eds. This record revealed the existence of a period stretching from A. (Ed.6.

Moving to Switzerland. according to Brooks and Birks. the Medieval Warm Period and the Roman Warm Period. glacier activity. leading into the so-called Medieval Warm Epoch. which was collected in 1993. Filippi et al. since the upper sample of the lake sediment core from that region. the beginning of the 87 .” Citing Bond et al. tree line. as well as the existence of the unnamed cold period that preceded the Roman Warm Period.4°C warmer than the present day” during the Medieval Warm Period.5°C which may coincide with the ‘Little Ice Age’. we might add.” And to make the message even more clear. and reduced lake catchment erosion. “reconstructs the modern temperature at about 10.” These results. in a cave in the southwestern part of the country. (1997).D. bog growth. 1°C warmer than today during the MWP. they add that during the Medieval Warm Period. with high treelines. lake and sea levels. (2001) derived a ð18O record from a stalagmite that provided evidence for climatic variations that are “broadly consistent with a Medieval Warm Period at ~1000 ± 200 years ago and a two-stage Little Ice Age. when there was a gradual change to cool/moist climate. in his words. which evidence also implies the existence of what McDermott et al.” This interval of time proved to be “a favourable period for agriculture in marginal areas of Northwest Europe. there was. western Norway (Velle. 1100-1300.” Also evident in the data were the ð18O signatures of the earlier Roman Warm Period and Dark Ages Cold Period that comprised the preceding millennial-scale cycle of climate in that region.. McDermott et al. has absolutely nothing to do with variations in the air’s CO2 content. To give some context to this finding. he determined there was a positive correlation between human impact/land-use and climate change.” In doing so. From these data they detected “the existence of a medieval warm epoch lasting from A. Lastly.” where summer temperatures were “about 0.5°C less than the 11°C value the authors found for the Medieval Warm Period. 2000). a great “retreat of agriculture” centered on about AD 500.” when “the climate was warm and dry. (2001) call the Dark Ages Cold Period that separated the Medieval and Roman Warm Periods.” which. In another study of three stalagmites found in a cave in northwest Germany. who identified several periods of expansion and decline of human cultures in northwest Europe and compared them with a history of reconstructed climate “based on insolation. 1999) as well as sea surface temperatures based on diatom stratigraphy in [the] Norwegian Sea (Jansen and Koc. and tree growth. (1999) share similar views. Bodri and Cermak (1999) derived individual ground surface temperature histories from the temperature-depth logs of 98 separate boreholes drilled in the Czech Republic. 1999).” which is 0.. (2003) discovered that the climate records they contained “resemble records from an Irish stalagmite (McDermott et al. 1°C cooler than today about 400 years ago and ca.” This period “lasted until around AD 1200.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! “before cooling by about 1. This latter observation also appears to hold for the Scottish site.5°C. we report the findings of Berglund (2003).” In Ireland. which can be correlated with Bond’s event 1 in the North Atlantic sediments (Bond et al. in the latter part of the record. 1998). Specifically. Niggemann et al. During this same transition from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA).” He additionally notes that “this period was one of rapid cooling indicated from tree-ring data (Eronen et al.” Filippi et al. where both cultural and climate changes were best defined. they detected a drop of approximately 1. they went on to suggest that “the observed recent warming may thus be easily a natural return of climate from the previous colder conditions back to a ‘normal’.” Next came what Berglund calls a “boom period” that covered “several centuries from AD 700 to 1100.” specifically noting that their own records provide evidence for the existence of the Little Ice Age. they further note that the MWP and LIA are merely the most recent manifestations of “a pervasive millennial-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean climate oscillation. 1997). Noting that this spectacular warm period was followed by the Little Ice Age..5°C in mean annual air temperature.” which they describe as “one of the warmest postglacial times. they say that “the warming during the 20th century does not seem to have fully compensated the cooling at the MWP-LIA transition. as is demonstrated by their citing of Keigwin (1996) to the effect that “sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions show that SST was ca. which led to “reforestation in large areas of central Europe and Scandinavia. glacier retreat. “are in good agreement with a chironomid stratigraphy from Finse. (1999) analyzed a sediment core extracted from Lake Neuchatel in the western Swiss Lowlands. the mean annual air temperature was “on average higher than at present.

. Spiro.co2science. Medieval climatic warming recorded by radiocarbon dated McDermott. deMenocal. B. 1996. Journal of Quaternary Science 16: 717726. and Hawkesworth. References Andren. Keppens. Brooks.E.. Sauerland. and Koc. and Bonani. and Wurth. and Cermak. 2001. Matthews.. and Zetterberg. S. Borsato. P. T. G. Cullen.. Dahl. Mattey.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! alpine tree-line shift on the Kola Peninsula. reap the benefits.7. Perhaps the most outstanding feature of this history was the warm period it revealed between 860 and 1000 AD.Sc. 2003. can do about this natural cycle except..K. I. There is nothing we McDermott. agrarian society.. The Holocene 11: 437-446. Hyvarinen. Longinelli. Journal of Paleolimnology 21: 19-34. H.. In addition. 1998. M. A pervasive millennial-scale climate cycle in the North Atlantic: The Holocene and late glacial record. Almasi. Russia.. can be found at http://www. western Norway. A. and Aarseth. and Berrisford. than it is currently. Climatic and anthropogenic influence on the stable isotope record from bulk carbonates and ostracodes in Lake Neuchatel. C. Filippi. I. Science 278: 1257-1266. North America Arseneault and Payette (1997) analyzed tree-ring and growth-form sequences obtained from more than 300 spruce remains buried in a presently treeless peatland in northern Quebec to produce a proxy record of climate for this region of the continent between 690 and 1591 AD. Richter. Human impact and climate changes—synchronous events and a causal link? Quaternary International 105: 7-12. Kubler. 2000. S. 2001. Heaton.. and Kremenetski. reconstructed from dinoflagellate cyst assemblages. There Jansen. J.. P.. Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem ð18O record from SW Ireland. M.. C. G. Cheseby. and Birks. The Little Ice Age . Bodri.600 years in stalagmites from the B7 cave. Y. Boettger... A. Showers.. Quaternary Science Reviews available. Velle.php. 1999.. A. E. A... L. The Holocene 9: 569-580. Frisia. G. H. A paleoclimate record of the last 17.. PAGES Newsletter 8(1): 13-14.2. van Borgh. H.. during the last two millennia. Thesis. F. Nesje. textural and extensionreviews of newer publications as they become rate variations in speleothems. G. 2001. N. Chironomid-inferred air temperatures from Lateglacial and Holocene sites in north-west Europe: progress and problems. Science 294: 1328-1331. eastern Norway. S. A. 1999. Polyak. M. E.. A paleoecological study of chironomids (Insecta: Diptera) with special reference to climate..J. there is reason to Keigwin.H.. Andren.. C. Berglund.. G.P. C. F. A ~ 4500-yr record of river floods obtained from a sediment core in Lake Atnsjoen.. Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 555-567. M. The Holocene history of the southwestern Baltic Sea as reflected in a sediment core from the Bornholm Basin. V. I. Holocene climate variability in Additional information on this topic. 1997. by the study of Berglund (2003). 2003. P. Switzerland. Holocene variations of sea-surface conditions in the southeastern Barents Sea. Boreas 29: 233-250. Germany. P.org/ 18: 1021-1038. M.. L. Lotti. Hiller. Priori. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 1723-1741. Journal of Paleolimnology 25: 329-342. Holocene humidity changes in northern Finnish Lapland inferred from lake sediments and submerged Scots pines dated by tree-rings. E. 1999. S.A.O. 3. G. trajectory that is taking it back to a state reminiscent of the Medieval Warm Period. L. Mikalsen.. O. Verheyden. 2001. Hajdes.J. Global and Planetary Change 21: 225-235.E. and Sohlenius.. D. and Selmo. E. 1999.. R. with severe consequences for the Holocene 11: 491-497. Hunziker.” The story from Europe seems quite clear. Hawkesworth. Sejrup. Based on the fact that the northernmost twentieth century location of the forest 88 . The Little Ice Age and Medieval believe the planet may be on a natural climate Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea. H. S. and Bernasconi. subject/e/europemwp. T. Huang. T. LateHolocene changes in ocean circulation and climate: foraminiferal and isotopic evidence from Sulafjord. E. Voronina.S. Lambert. A. 2000. S. University of Bergen.. Eronen. including Europe: evidence from delta18O.. Climate change of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: Regional patterns of climatic changes in the Czech Republic—Part III. Mangini. De Vernal.B. 2001. Science 174: 1504-1508. W.D. and Peyron. 2001. B. Century to decadal scale was a several-hundred-year period in the first part of records of Norwegian sea surface temperature variations of the last millennium that was significantly warmer the past 2 millennia. Fairchild.P... D. as is implied S.L.. Bond. P. J. Niggemann.

1200.000-year record at decadal. the scientists concluded that the “Medieval Warm Period was approximately 1°C warmer than the 20th century. “with ice and marine records. In giving some context to these findings. The most recent of the vegetation transitions was centered at approximately 600 years BP (before present).” They go on to say that “although several mechanisms for such natural [our italics] forcing have been advanced. (2003) studied diatom assemblages in sediment cores taken from three Canadian and three United States lakes situated within the northern prairies of North America. and the Roman Warm Period (about BC 900-100).. was Campbell (2002).D. Calkin et al.076 14C dates from the North American Pollen Database used to date sequences in more than 700 pollen diagrams across North America.600 years BP represents the climatic amelioration that “culminat[ed] in the maximum warming of the Medieval Warm Period 1000 years ago.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! tree-line is presently 130 km south of their study site. occurring approximately every 1.” Prior to that event. Canada (52°N. a major transition that began approximately 1.000 years. between sustained periods of wetter and drier conditions. where they too detected a Medieval Warm Period that lasted for “at least a few centuries prior to A. 1300-1850).D. they note that “these transitions are identifiable across North America and presumably the world. Periods of both increasing and decreasing grain size (related to moisture availability) were noted throughout the 4.5°W) to provide a non-vegetation-based high-resolution record of climate variability for this part of North America over the past 4. while in the United States they occurred near its end.” in the words of the authors of the study. 800-1300) and the onset of the Little Ice Age (ca. A. This event. on back through the Holocene and into the preceding late glacial period.” In Canada. when solar output was relatively high for several decades. Results of their statistical analyses indicated there were nine millennial-scale oscillations during the past 14.” Also identifying the Medieval Warm Period. with maximum cooling 300 years ago. (2001). 113.” Furthermore. (2001) carefully reviewed what they termed “the most current and comprehensive research of Holocene glaciation” along the northernmost Gulf of Alaska between the Kenai Peninsula and Yakutat Bay. major shifts occurred near the beginning of the Medieval Warm Period. finding that “shifts in drought conditions on decadal through multicentennial scales have prevailed in this region for at least the last two millennia.. The most predominant departures were several-centuries-long epochs that corresponded to the Little Ice Age (about AD 15001900). Their results 89 .. suggests that these millennial-scale dynamics are linked and operate over wide spatial scales. 2003). Alberta.” Shifting to the other side of the continent. Laird et al.220 years.” Additional evidence for the solar forcing of these millennial-scale climate changes is provided by Shindell et al. 2001) associated with oceanatmosphere feedbacks acting as global teleconnections agents.500 years. inferred from two sites several hundreds of kilometers to the southwest in the mountain hemlock zone of southern British Columbia (Hallett et al. who analyzed the grain sizes of sediment cores obtained from Pine Lake.” Viau et al. “culminat[ed] in the Little Ice Age.” and that “the striking correspondence of these shifts to large changes in fire frequencies. have been reported from western Canada (Cumming et al.650 years were recorded in the pollen records. the Medieval Warm Period (about AD 7001300).000 years in which continent-wide synchronous vegetation changes with a periodicity of roughly 1. additionally note that “the large-scale nature of these transitions and the fact that they are found in different proxies confirms the hypothesis that Holocene and late glacial climate variations of millennial-scale were abrupt transitions between climatic regimes as the atmosphere-ocean system reorganized in response to some forcing. Viau et al.D. centennial. (2002) analyzed a set of 3. who used a version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM to estimate climatic differences between the period of the Maunder Minimum in solar irradiance (mid-1600s to early 1700s) and a century later. with the times of all major pollen transitions being “consistent. and millennial time scales. recent evidence points to a potential solar forcing (Bond et al. in the words of the authors.” They also note that “millennial-scale shifts over at least the past 5. A.” And so it goes. as well as other major warm and cold periods of the millennial-scale climatic oscillation that is responsible for them. 2002).” In an effort to determine whether these climatedriven millennial-scale cycles are present in the terrestrial pollen record of North America. the Dark Ages Cold Period (about BC 100 to AD 700). the authors state that “distinct patterns of abrupt change in the Northern Hemisphere are common at or near the termination of the Medieval Warm Period (ca.

R. as delineated by McDermott et Research 49: 96-101.S..org/ variations. and Payette. and Barclay. 2001. Showers. Hydrologic variation in the northern Great Plains southwestern USA ‘megadroughts’. G. go on to say that “mid-Atlantic dry periods generally correspond to central and Fritz.” Rounding out our mini-review of the Medieval subject/n/northamericamwp.. “corresponds to the ‘Medieval Warm millennia. occurred during the latter part of the climate change in southern Alberta. Muscheler. Lepofsky. Quaternary Science Reviews centuries in duration are evident in Chesapeake Bay 20: 449-461. beginning about 1000 years ago. Laird et al. of decadal or more duration that probably exceeded twentieth-century droughts in severity. Geology 25: 331-334. Z. Reconstruction of obtained from the Bay’s tributaries. via an Chesapeake Bay during the last 1000 years.” from varved lake sediments. J.php.P. K. Hoffmann. 1994). E. G..K.. S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Period’. 1994) Dean. which spanned the period 200 Campbell. lacustrine diatom and ostracode 90 ..R. Persistent millennial-scale shifts in next such dry period (~AD 800-1200). G. in their words. 2000. Holocene “several dry periods ranging from decades to coastal glaciation of Alaska. Smol. 1996b) and compared so well with historical and proxy climate detrital clastic records (Dean. Ito.C. D.. Willard et al. J. Warm Period in North America are two papers dealing with the climatic history of the Chesapeake Bay region of the United States. Ecology 78: 1873-1883. I..R. 11. 2001. 2002. Human and investigation of fossil dinoflagellate cysts and pollen Ecological Risk Assessment 7: 1283-1296. for 200 years. and indicate that “droughts in the late sixteenth century Lertzman. Quaternary Roman Warm Period. D.R.F. K.” The first of these periods of lower-thanaverage precipitation. consists of an analysis of sediment cores Arseneault.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! (Fritz et al.” They further Hallett. Their efforts revealed that Calkin. from sediment cores. The first. in which it is tree line peatland. B.. S. Laird. that “colder It is evident that the Medieval Warm Period has winter temperatures over the Northern Hemispheric left its mark throughout North America in the form of continents during portions of the 15th through the either warm temperature anomalies or periods of 17th centuries (sometimes called the Little Ice Age) relative dryness. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 33: 292spanning a century or more have been indicated by 312. 2000... (2003) studied the same region for Brush.E.117-16....000 years of fire history and that lasted several decades. (2001) on the basis of a high-resolution Cumming.J.. Stahle and Cleaveland. described by during the last two millennia. Great Plains tree-ring (Stahle et al. records.N. 2001.. Rates. 2002.” Willard et al. S.S.. D. 1985. Yu. 1997). R. Wiles.co2science.. 2001) records from the eolian activity in north-central United States: evidence southeastern USA. 1996a. and cyclicity of Holocene and pollen (Willard et al. which has been documented as drier than Sciences USA 99: 16. 800 to 400 years ago. A. Canada. timing. C. al. W.121. and warmer temperatures during the 12th through Additional information on this topic.. D. Natural and anthropogenic changes in the period 2.300 years BP to the present. and Bonani. and those in the ‘Medieval climate in the mountain hemlock rain forests of Warm Period’ and between ~AD 50 and AD 350 southwestern British Columbia based on sedimentary charcoal.. Evans. including 14th centuries (the putative Medieval Warm Period) reviews of newer publications as they become may have been influenced by long-term solar available. K. Late Holocene lake sedimentology and BC-AD 300.J.” data that they concluded. and Engstrom.. J. sediments by terrestrial indicators of dry conditions M. R. Lotti-Bond.P.E. marshes and main millennial forest dynamics from tree remains in a subarctic stem that covers the past millennium. can be found at http://www. W. Laird. reported that “the Medieval Climatic Anomaly and the Little Ice Age are recorded in Chesapeake Bond. B. The Salomon. average by tree-ring (Stahle and Cleaveland. Kromer. Science 294: 21302136..C. G. Persistent solar influence on North followed by increases in wet indicators from about Atlantic climate during the Holocene.R.W. Quaternary Research 53: Woodhouse and Overpeck (1998) as major droughts 175-184. Beer. in the words of moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six the authors. 1997. by Brush References (2001). and speleothem ð18O record from southwest Ireland. Bennett. 1997. Hajdas. D. 2003. P. Mathewes.

with a slight respite in the central hundred years of that period. Laird.F.C. Wunsam. Down at the southern tip of the country in Tierra del Fuego.. after which flooding picked up again after 1850. and Sawada.M. Weimer.. Mann.. Greater drought intensity and frequency before AD 1200 in the Northern Great Plains. B. Lake sediments record large-scale shifts in moisture regimes across the northern prairies of North America during the past two millennia. during the Dark Ages Cold Period. These new chronologies were compared with other chronologies of pertinent data from both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres in an analysis that indicated there was evidence for a period of warminginduced drier conditions from AD 960-1020. C.000 yr.W. M. Bulletins of American Paleontology 361: 41-55. when the record began. S.. (2004) inferred similar changes in temperature and/or precipitation from plant macrofossils. S. a closed-basin lake in the northern Great Plains. L.E. Fritz. K.. D. D. testate amebae. Nature 316: 530-532.. and Verardo. 1998. 2002. 2001. J.C. J.A. G.” where they remained until around AD 1320. during the latter stages of the Roman Warm Period. K.A. P..” They note that “this interval compares well to the date range of AD 950-1045 based on Northern Hemisphere extratropical tree-ring data (Esper et al.M. S. The Florida Everglades ecosystem. Climatic Change 26: 199-212. D. Chepstow-Lusty et al. Century-scale paleoclimatic reconstruction from Moon Lake. USA. fungal spores. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79: 2693-2714.. A.A. C. Tree-ring reconstructed rainfall over the southeastern U. and Mueller. Gajewski. J. Cumming. 1996a. M. LateHolocene climate and ecosystem history from Chesapeake Bay sediment cores. South America In Argentina.G. Mattey.400 years. and Holmes. C.. D. McDermott. Viau.. there was a high frequency of flood events. 2001.A. T. 2003. 1994. Cioccale (1999) assembled what was known at the time about the climatic history of the central region of that country over the past 1. K.G. 2003..Observations:!Temperature!Records! Laird.C.J. which ultimately came to be characterized by “a marked increase of environmental suitability. under a relatively homogeneous climate. and Hehr.” and they conclude that this correspondence “shows that the MWP was possibly synchronous in both hemispheres. Cioccale says “the population located in the lower valleys ascended to higher areas in the Andes. P. Geology 30: 455-458.F. climatic and anthropogenic impacts over the last two millennia. and diatom-assemblage data derived from sediment cores extracted from one of the largest natural lakes (Laguna Aculeo) in the central part of the country. USA. Science 294: 1328-1331. Grimm. R. Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum.A. and Overpeck.E. until AD 200. B. The Holocene 13: 201-214. “seems to correspond to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP. Cronin. United States. 2002). and Cumming.” In Chile. S. Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem ð18O record from SW Ireland. M. Subsequently.. when the transition to the stressful and extreme climate of the Little Ice Age began. (2002) studied geochemical. and Waple..A.T. M.R. K.P. In Peru. P.. Willard. Then came a several-hundred-year period of less flooding that was coeval with the Medieval Warm Period.C.. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 100: 2483-2488. Maasch.8.. and Leavitt. 2000 years of drought variability in the Central United States. as derived in the Northern Hemisphere).A. Rind.R. 3. Cleaveland.W. (1998) derived a 4. D. D.. Shindell. Woodhouse.” As a result of this climatic amelioration that marked the transition of the region from the Dark Ages Cold Period to the Medieval Warm Period. Stahle... Nature 384: 552554. highlighting a climatic “improvement” that ! began some 400 years before the start of the last millennium.S. Fritz. Willard. Stahle. E.C. 1996b. Limnology and Oceanography 41: 890-902. Science 294: 2149-2152. Schmidt. This more benign period was then followed by another period of frequent flooding from 1300-1700 that was coincident with the Little Ice Age.K. from AD 200-700. S. A. Jenny et al. 2001. 1985. during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. F. Widespread evidence of 1500 yr climate variability in North America during the past 14. conditions there were primarily dry. and Hawkesworth. Atkinson. A 450-year drought reconstruction for Arkansas.T.. which. K. Rusak.E. D.K. and humification associated with peat monoliths collected from the Valle de Andorra.R. Mauquoy et al. D. Fines.R. as suggested by Villalba (1994). in their words. sedimentological. pollen. From 200 BC.W. and Cleaveland. Fritz. Oglesby. Laird.2.000-year climate history from a study of pollen in sediment cores obtained from a recently in-filled lake 91 .

activity at these altitudes. they had gradually established itself between about AD report that “this precipitation anomaly also occurred 700 and 1000. (2003). 1986. of course. (2003) reveal the occurrence of in the Patacancha Valley near Marcacocha. Chepstow-Lusty and Winfield researchers anomaly in the flux of lithic components from the identified what they describe as “the warm global continent onto the Peruvian shelf during the Medieval climatic interval frequently referred to as the period. and because El Niños are Peruvian Andes had held sway for a good portion of typically more prevalent and stronger during cooler as the millennium preceding AD 1000. 1997. (2002) reconstruction shows northern hemisphere straddling the BC/AD calendar break with one to two temperatures almost as high as those of the 20th hundred years of relative warmth and significant century” during the Medieval period. Chepstow-Lusty and Winfield report in other high-resolution records throughout the ENSO that “temperatures were beginning to increase after a domain. Their data the Little Ice Age. as the Roman Warm Period gave way wetness.” This earlier colder and Consequently. 1990).. pollen records of Chepstow-Lusty et al. in their opinion.D. 2001. proceeding towards the present.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Chepstow-Lusty et al. In the introduction to their paper. a “more are also evident in ice cores retrieved from the optimum climate. 1984. they report that “lithic Medieval Warm Epoch. 1990) precede or follow the around the area of Lake Titicaca (Binford et al. where a deposits of El Niño mega-floods (Magillian and contemporaneous prolonged drought occurred in and Goldstein. which was.000 Lima. These investigators found a major Holocene years ago. 1988). Holocene from an analysis of the sediments in a 20Subsequent work in this area was conducted by meter core retrieved from a sheltered basin situated Chepstow-Lusty and Winfield (2000) and Chepstowon the edge of the Peruvian shelf about 80 km west of Lusty et al. who stalagmite recovered from a cave nearly half the derived a high-resolution flood record of the entire world away in Ireland. whereas the Esper et al.” citing 11 other references in support of this sustained cold period that had precluded agricultural statement. medieval anomaly in our marine records and none of Abbott et al. the El Niño mega-floods known from the continent Near the start of this extended dry period. the Medieval Warm Quelccaya ice core data and the Marcacocha pollen Period.670 meters above mean sea level and prevailed for several centuries after about AD (Thompson et al.. which in the Central Peruvian indicated a several-century decline in pollen content Andes was characterized by relative coolness and after AD 100. to use their words. et al. temporal agreement with the climatic history derived In harmony with these several findings are the by McDermott et al.. the final sentence of their paper they suggest that “the Returning to the Medieval Warm Period and occurrence of a Medieval climatic anomaly (A. These characteristics of that climatic interval to the Dark Ages Cold Period. came into being which extends 5. they state that “all known terrestrial Tiwanaku civilization further south. Centered on approximately 1. As a result.. all data reveal the transition to the drier Current Warm of which climatic periods are in nearly perfect Period that occurred over the past 100-plus years.D. in aridity on both sides of it. the data of 92 . “the global Mann curve defined climatic epoch is also strikingly evident in the has no temperature optimum. 800 to 1250 suggests that this Peruvian Andes (Hansen et al. they note that Preceding the Dark Ages Cold Period in both “discrepancies exist between the Mann curve and parts of the world was what in the North Atlantic alternative time series for the Medieval period. which in the maximum El Niño strength.” This extremely arid interval concentrations were very low for about 450 years in this part of South America.” as they describe it. Finally. Seltzer and Hastorf. because heavy winter rainfalls wetter interval was coeval with the Dark Ages Cold along and off coastal Peru occur only during times of Period of the North Atlantic region. as revealed by a opposed to warmer periods (see El Niño (Relationship series of climatic records developed from sediment to Global Warming) in Chapter 5). Specifically. may during the Medieval climatic anomaly from A. which date within the marine anomaly. (2004). 800 have played a significant role in the collapse of the to 1250. (2003). However.” Most region is called the Roman Warm Period. 1994) and by proxy period was truly a Medieval Warm Period. both the 900. the lack of strong cores extracted from yet other lakes in the Central El Niños from A. (2001) from a study of a related observations of Rein et al. the summit of temperatures and drier conditions. Wells. which was followed by the Little Ice Age. This wellnotably.” In fact. and the evidence of concomitant Peruvian glacial expansion significance of this observation was not lost on Rein (Wright. with warmer Quelccaya ice cap in southern Peru.” In addition.D. 1997).

which was accompanied by a slow but long decline in precipitation. Haug et al. It is much more realistic to believe it was the result of a millennial-scale oscillation of climate that is global in scope and driven by some regularly varying forcing factor.” This crisis occurred during the first intense multiyear drought of the RWP-to-DACP transition. when they report that “the Maya experienced a demographic disaster as ! profound as any other in human history. one thing should be clear: It is not the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration. between about 750 and 950 A.’s data soon thereafter depict the development of the Medieval Warm Period.. Then comes the Little Ice Age. followed by drier conditions associated with the Little Ice Age between 550 and 200 years ago. Haug et al. However.5 thousand years ago. 2002) of major cities. Although one can argue about the identity of that forcing factor and the means by which it exerts its influence.” which is a polite way of suggesting that the Mann et al. and Maya culture blossomed in the following centuries during the so-called Classic period. This distinctive cold interval of the planet’s millennial-scale climatic oscillation also must have led to hard times for the people of Mesoamerica and northern tropical South America. Although the drought was devastating to the Maya. they determined that the concentrations of these elements were lower during the Younger Dryas cold period between 12. while during the warmth of the Holocene Optimum of 10.D.D. and Classic Maya civilization came to an end. it should be clear that the climatic amelioration of the past century or more has had little or nothing to do with the concomitant rise in the air’s CO2 content but everything to do with the influential forcing factor that has governed the millennial-scale oscillation of earth’s climate as far back in time as we have been able to detect it. corresponding to a weakened hydrologic cycle with less precipitation and runoff. In Venezuala. Haug et al. determined was the driest interval of the entire Dark Ages Cold Period. (1998.” which according to the climate history of McDermott et al.5 to 5. Haug et al.” Although the Mayan civilization thus faded away. Haug et al. during what Haug et al. say that “many of the densely populated urban centers were abandoned permanently. the Little Ice Age produced the lowest precipitation regime (of several hundred years’ duration) of the last two millennia in that part of the world..D. “populations recovered.. report “they occurred during an extended period of reduced overall precipitation that may have already pushed the Maya system to the verge of collapse. In an update of this study. Haug et al. Haug et al.” In assessing the significance of these several observations near the end of their paper. In examining the titanium and iron concentrations of an ocean sediment core taken from the Cariaco Basin on the country’s northern shelf. In conclusion. (2003) developed a hydrologic history of pertinent portions of the record that yielded “roughly bi-monthly resolution and clear resolution of the annual signal.4 thousand years ago. report that “the first documented historical crisis hit the lowlands.” Although some of these spectacular droughts were “brief.” in response to a number of other intense multi-year droughts. when the Vikings established their historic settlement on Greenland.” lasting “only” between three and nine years. cities were reoccupied. During this Terminal Classic Collapse.Observations:!Temperature!Records! 800-1250) with persistently weak El Niños may therefore assist the interpretation of some of the regional discrepancies in thermal reconstructions of Medieval times.6 and 11.” Ultimately. 93 . 1999) hockey stick temperature history is deficient in not depicting the presence of a true Medieval Warm Period. This being the case.7 thousand years ago. conclude that the latter droughts “were the most severe to affect this region in the first millennium A. which has exhibited a significant in-phase variation with global temperature change only over the Little Ice Age to Current Warm Period transition. however. according to the data of Haug et al. (2001) found a temperature/precipitation relationship that was different from that of the rest of the continent. higher precipitation was also noted during the Medieval Warm Period from 1. as it is called. titanium and iron concentrations remained at or near their highest values. it is difficult to believe that the strong synchronicity of the century-long Northern Hemispheric and South American warm and cold periods described above was coincidental. report that when it was over. which was centered on about the year 250 A. which led to the ‘Pre-Classic abandonment’ (Webster.05 to 0. corresponds to the latter portion of the Roman Warm Period (RWP). Haug et al. suggesting wet conditions and an enhanced hydrologic cycle.D. Mayan civilization had flourished. which just as quickly led to the Vikings’ demise in that part of the world.” This record revealed that “before about 150 A. Closer to the present. there came a time of reckoning. during the transition to the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP).

. G. Chambers.H... 1990..Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Additional information on this topic. and Geyh. Climatic Change 26: 183-197. and Herrera. A. C. Holocene history of the El Niño phenomenon as recorded in flood sediments of northern coastal Peru. and Hughes. M.S. Science 294: 1328-1331. Binford. J. J.H. Mountain Research and Development 18: 159-172. Hansen. M. 1988. Dansgaard.. UK. 2002. Villalba.. Quaternary Research 61: 148-158. M. Sigman. Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem !18O record from SW Ireland. Cook. Peterson. 2004.. and Hughes. K. Brenner. can be found at http://www. and limitations. A. 1998. Veit. B.. Southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone through the Holocene. El Niño floods and culture change: A late Holocene flood history for the Rio Moquegua.W. R. Seltzer. B. and Hawkesworth.. Climatic fluctuations in the Central Region of Argentina in the last 1000 years. Kolata.C. A.co2science. 1986. A.. Quaternary International 87: 3-18. B. B..W. M. Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Peru.E. M. D. K. 2003.000 years of environmental history in the Cuzco Area. Kelts. A.T. M. K. and Schweingruber.. E. Science 299: 1731-1735. G. Blaauw.. A. 1994. Wright Jr. L. Haug.. M. 2001.T. A. Journal of Field Archaeology 17: 397-414.C. Haug. Peru. Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization. Hughen.. and Goldstein.M. The Fall of the Ancient Maya. Binford. and Liu.. Fjeldsa. Nature 307: 763-765.. J. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. from the pollen record. Sigman. M. central Peru. Jenny.. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. A 3500 14C yr high resolution record of water-level changes in Lake Titicaca. 2003. 2000.. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Climate variation and the rise and fall of an Andean civilization. London.K. D. Moisture changes and fluctuations of the Westerlies in Mediterranean Central Chile during the last 2000 years: The Laguna Aculeo record (33°50’S). M. Late glacial and Late Holocene moraines in the Cerros Cuchpanga. Inca agroforestry: Lessons from the past. D.A. Janusek.G..G. B.L.H.R. R.A. 1984. G. Quaternary Research 47: 235-248. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences. E. Abbott. and Kelts. M. B. U.. D. Mattey..E. Tree-ring and glacial evidence for the Medieval Warm Epoch and the ‘Little Ice Age’ in southern South America.S.S. Palaeoclimatology. H. and Herrera. Palaeogeography. H.H. Mosley-Thompson. W. Science 295: 2250-2253. 1999. R. Palaeoecology 109: 263-285.E. Thames and Hudson.T. Bradley. L.. B. and Hastorf. Tracing 4. A..1029/2004GL020161. C. Galiano. Pre-Incan agricultural activity recorded in dust layers in two tropical ice cores.. D.E. van Geel. 1990.C. The Little Ice Age as recorded in the stratigraphy of the tropical Quelccaya ice cap. Hughen. Nature 392: 779-787.P.. and Curtis.. K.. Quaternary International 62: 35-47. References Abbott. Webster. 1999. K. Geology 29: 431-434.. F.K. Quaternary Research 47: 169180. W.B.M. Bennett. Chepstow-Lusty. Cioccale. Late Quaternary vegetational change in the central Peruvian Andes.S.R. Thompson. Mauquoy. and Winfield.L. Peterson. J. Science 234: 361-364... Valero-Garces.org/ subject/s/southamericamwp. southern Peru.-B.B. Mosley-Thompson. F. Frogley. 1998. M. M.. Appleby. 2004.M.. Kendall. and Aeschlimann. F. Luckge. K. M.E.E. A major Holocene ENSO anomaly during the Medieval period..R.G..M. and Grootes.J. Bradley. Urrutia. Thompson. 94 Magillian. Esper. Climatic change and its effect on Prehispanic agriculture in the central Peruvian Andes. and Wright Jr. A.S. H. E. A late Holocene record of arid events from the Cuzco region. Mann.O. Seltzer. Gunther. McDermott. uncertainties. 1997. M.. Seddon. . 2001. Mann.W. Geology 18: 1134-1137. M. Bauer. D. P. Brenner.php.. Chepstow-Lusty. 2001. L. 1994. M. and Possnert. P. G. 1997. and Sirocko.J. R. Davis. Quattrocchio. M. Rein. 2002. L. L. P... Late Holocene climatic changes in Tierra del Fuego based on multiproxy analyses of peat deposits. Ambio 29: 322-328. Journal of Quaternary Science 18: 491-502.. M. F.D. 2002. and Rohl. F. Science 293: 1304-1308. Bush. Quaternary Research 21: 275-285.. Chepstow-Lusty. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.A. G. Borromei. Wells.. M.

claiming “it has been estimated that temperature trends over rural stations only are very similar to trends using all station data. Since nearly all near-surface air temperature records of this period have been obtained from sensors located in population centers that have experienced significant growth. In discussing the implications of their findings. p. (2001) describe UHI-induced temperature perversions as one of three types of systematic error in the surface air temperature record whose magnitude “cannot be assessed at present.3.B. it is essential that urban heat island (UHI) effects be removed from all original temperature records when attempting to accurately assess what has truly happened in the natural non-urban environment.74°C ± 0. Qin.” Specifically. after which they regressed the results against 95 .” which implies that “the ‘real’ global mean surface temperature trend is very likely to be considerably smaller than the temperature trend in the CRU [Hadley Center/Climate Research Unit] data.” They conclude that “the observed surface temperature changes might be a result of local surface heating processes and not related to radiative greenhouse gas forcing.” since the temperature measurements that comprise that data base “are often conducted in the vicinity of human (industrial) activity. which reveals the spatial distribution of various levels of industrial activity over the planet as quantified by the intensity of anthropogenic CO2 emissions to divide the surface of the earth into non-industrial and industrial sectors of various intensity levels. they find that the surface and lower tropospheric warming trends of all industrial regions are greater than the mean warming trend of the earth’s non-industrial regions. Urban Heat Islands How accurate are the surface temperature records cited by the IPCC as showing unprecedented millennial warmth over the past couple decades? The IPCC considers them very accurate and nearly free of any contaminating influence. Marquis. The IPCC dismisses this concern.” This statement is patently false. “suggest a hitherto-overlooked driver of local surface temperature increases. Tignor and H. 1996. M. may have been a full order of magnitude greater.. and that the difference in warming rate between the two types of land use grows ever larger as the degree of industrialization increases. Solomon. Gallo et al. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis..” These observations. M. 2007-I. 3. yielding a 1905-2005 increase of 0. UK.1. M. suggesting that the effect of urbanization on estimates of global-scale signals should be small. Z. which is linked to the degree of industrialization” and “lends strong support to other indications that surface processes (possibly changes in land-use or the urban heat effect) are crucial players in observed surface temperature changes (Kalnay and Cai. References IPCC. (2001).” A similar study was conducted by McKitrick and Michaels (2004). Manning. saying the UHI is “an order of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time-scale trends” (p. Chen. 2003. 237). D. who calculated 1979-2000 linear trends of monthly mean near-surface air temperature for 218 stations in 93 countries. in their words. On this extremely important matter. after which they plotted the 1979-2001 temperature trends (°C/decade) of the different sectors using data from both the surface and the lower and middle troposphere. they go on to do just that.) Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.L. and have a negligible influence (less than 0. based upon data they obtained from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS). as the rest of this section demonstrates. on the other hand. 2007-I. S. Warming in many growing cities. The two scientists report that “measurements of surface and lower tropospheric temperature change give a very different picture from climate model predictions and show strong observational evidence that the degree of industrialization is correlated with surface temperature increases as well as lower tropospheric temperature changes.006° C per decade over land and zero over the oceans) on these [observed temperature] values” (p. (Eds. K. Averyt. Miller. De Laat and Maurellis say “areas with larger temperature trends (corresponding to higher CO2 emissions) cover a considerable part of the globe.” Nevertheless.3. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. the IPCC is simply wrong. ! De Laat and Maurellis (2004) used a global dataset developed by Van Aardenne et al. 5). Global Hegerl et al. 244) and “UHI effects are real but local. 1999).Observations:!Temperature!Records! 3.18°C (IPCC.

who attempted to determine if were made over the last two decades of the twentieth trends in recognizable atmospheric modes of century.” Nor including economic activity and sociopolitical could they find any evidence “that interdecadal characteristics. they say “very similar correlations appear. they had to acknowledge that “all repeated the process using the gridded surface air attempts to explain all or a significant part of the temperature data of the IPCC. with respect to the IPCC variations in radiative forcing. It should be abundantly clear there is ample satellite record. and that error is probably best introduced into the surface air temperature trend as a described as a large and growing warming bias. caused by volcanic eruptions.5°C. such as might be data. offer a effects.” Likewise.” in the words compelling explanation.e. since this comparison believed to have occurred since the end of the Little essentially amounts to an in situ validation of the Ice Age.000 people. which of the records is likely to be erroneous and then Oke found that the magnitude of the urban heat island assess the consequences of that determination. and temperature cannot explain trends in the observed coal use—to see if there was any evidence of these lapse rate. i. this relationship indicated that at the that difficult. i.” and that “an approach applying model “significantly correlated with non-climatic factors. 1. it may well be next to derived tropospheric temperatures over the last two impossible to make proper corrections for this decades of the twentieth century. Lawrence for the ever-increasing difference between the Lowlands of Canada that had populations ranging surface.” These “socioeconomic effects. or stratospheric ozone depletion alone. it is really not population.. Furthermore. observed lapse rate trend by modes of climate The two scientists report that the spatial pattern of variability with structured patterns from observations trends they derived from the GISS data was have failed.000 correspondence Hegerl and Wallace found to exist inhabitants. Then. After doing 96 . Over the population range studied. data to isolate such a pattern has also failed. the two scientists of McKitrick and Michaels. gross domestic product growth rates.” In addition. after the past 20-plus years may be that one of the which he compared his results with those obtained for temperature records is incorrect. variations in solar despite previous attempts to remove non-climatic output. variability could account for all or part of the It appears almost certain that surface-based observed trend in surface-troposphere temperature temperature histories of the globe contain a differential. which warming is more than twice as great trends. who measured the urban heat meteorological or climatic explanation could be found island strength of 10 settlements in the St. consequence of the worldwide intensification of the That this urban heat island-induced error has urban heat island effect that was likely driven by the indeed corrupted data bases that are claimed to be world population increase that occurred in most of the immune from it is suggested by the work of Hegerl places where surface air temperature measurements and Wallace (2000). was linearly correlated with the logarithm of Although this task may seem daunting. Faced with this a number of other cities in North America. there was an urban heat island effect of 2° between the satellite and radiosonde temperature to 2. One reason why is the good lowest population value encountered. the reason why no that of Oke (1973). as well as possibility. which leaves little reason for doubting the as the increase in mean global air temperature veracity of the satellite results.” “socioeconomic effect” in some past work. “add up to a net warming ultimately concluded that “there remains a gap in our bias. which has been driven by significant warming bias introduced by insufficient the upward-inclined trend in surface-derived corrections for the non-greenhouse-gas-induced urban temperatures and the nearly level trend in satelliteheat island effect.” although they say “precise estimation of its fundamental understanding of the processes that magnitude will require further work. A second important reason comes opportunity for large errors to occur in thermometerfrom the realization that it would be extremely easy derived surface air temperature histories of the for a spurious warming of 0. lapse rate.000.000 to 2. one would logically want to determine some in Europe. they trend.e.” Hence.and satellite-derived temperature trends of from approximately 1. such as On the other hand..” cause the lapse rate to vary on interdecadal We can get a good feel for the magnitude of the timescales. they had to indicators of local economic activity—such as conclude that “modes of variability that affect surface income.12°C per decade to be twentieth century.” and that “no mechanism with clear spatial socioeconomic factors affecting the supposedly or time structure can be found that accounts for that “pristine as possible” temperature data.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! everything they could conceive of doing.

were “much larger” than the seawater temperature trends.J. T. watershed evaporation decreased and sensible heating of the atmosphere increased. as the urban heat island of even small towns dwarfs any concomitant augmented greenhouse effect that may be present. Texas. Journal of Climate 12: 1344-1348. North America In studying the urban heat island (UHI) of Houston. In doing so. Hegerl. for in just 12 years the UHI of Houston grew by more than the IPCC contends the mean surface air temperature of the planet rose over the entire past century. Cambridge University Press.74°C. J. G.M. T.P. Owen. and Wallace. both in magnitude and spatial extent. C. 2001. 2004. and Maurellis. And from relationships derived from the suite of watersheds investigated. Journal of Climate 14: 198207. In another different type of study. A very different type of study was conducted by Maul and Davis (2001).C. The influence of land use/land cover on climatological values of the diurnal temperature range. and Lelieveld.S. K. and Barnett. Olivier. they calculated trends for the 14 longest records and derived a mean century-long seawater warming of 0. 1996. 2003. Impact of urbanization and land use change on climate. and Cai. J. 3. Jones. T.J. Kalnay.P. and Michaels.. during which period earth’s population rose by approximately 280 percent. Van Aardenne. they report that air temperature trends at the tide gauge sites. 1973. P. Nature 423: 528-531. Noting that each of these sites “experienced significant population growth in the last 100 years. Temperature trends of the historical climatologic network based on satellite-designated land use/land cover. Oke. Industrial CO2 emissions as a proxy for anthropogenic influence on lower tropospheric temperature trends. A.” and that “with the increase in maritime traffic and discharge of wastewater one would expect water temperatures to rise” (due to a maritime analogue of the urban heat island effect). with Boston registering a 100-year warming of 3. who analyzed air and seawater temperature data obtained over the past century at the sites of several primary tide gauges maintained by the U. IPCC. J..F. Gallo. P. Atmospheric Environment 7: 769-779.R.W. Between these two periods. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15: 909-928. G.. Klein Goldewijk.82 ± 0. In addition. Influence of patterns of climate variability on the difference between satellite and surface temperature trends. Dentener. and Jameson. they 97 . Climate Research 26: 159-173. T.J. E. A 1° x 1° resolution dataset of historical anthropogenic trace gas emissions for the period 1890-1990. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1999.R. Journal of Climate 9: 29412944. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.6°C.A..2. Streutker (2003) analyzed 82 sets of nighttime radiation data obtained from the split-window infrared channels of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on board the NOAA-9 satellite during March 1985 through February 1987 and from 125 sets of similar data obtained from the NOAA-14 satellite during July 1999 through June 2001.1029/2003GL019024. References De Laat.R. Streutker notes that the growth of the Houston UHI. J. which represent the standard urban heat island effect. and Peterson. A test of corrections for extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data. D.G.C.3. McKitrick..” This informative study demonstrates that the UHI phenomenon can sometimes be very powerful. K.G. Hegerl. Effect of observational sampling error on the detection of anthropogenic climate change.P.J.. In addition. R.N.T.M. watersheds that had experienced various degrees of urbanization between 1920 and 1990. 2001.S. 2002. F.C. or nearly an order of magnitude more than the 30 percent population growth experienced by Houston over the 12 years of Streutker’s study.” and that the mean rural temperature measured during the second interval was “virtually identical to the earlier interval. Dow and DeWalle (2000) analyzed trends in annual evaporation and Bowen ratio measurements on 51 eastern U. “scales roughly with the increase in population. City size and the urban heat island. Gallo. 2004. Journal of Climate 15: 2412-2428. it was found that the mean nighttime surface temperature of Houston rose by 0.10 °C. D.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! deficiency. P.D. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. A. Easterling. 2007. Easterling. they determined that as residential development progressively occurred on what originally were rural watersheds. Coast and Geodetic Survey. M..

3°C from and densely populated cities.S. which is consistent with be significant because the IPCC (1995) indicated that maximum urban heat island effects observed in large the global mean temperature increased 0.16 for may be readily overlooked in studies seeking to suburban stations. making identify a greenhouse-gas-induced global warming the rate of increase in extreme warm minimum signal.000 people. warming determined for this time period by 11 Climate modeling exercises suggest that a benchmark stations in Illinois with the highest quality doubling of the air’s CO2 concentration will result in long-term temperature data. indicative of an order-of-magnitude climate temperature measurements and with populations of sensitivity of 1°C per W/m2 change in radiative less than 2. all of which are located a nominal 4 W/m2 increase in the radiative forcing of in communities that had populations of less than earth’s surface-troposphere system. and a mere 2 percent U. the 13 W/m2 Changnon says his findings suggest that “both increase in the sensible heating of the near-surface sets of surface air temperature data for Illinois atmosphere produced by the total urbanization of a believed to have the best data quality with little or no pristine rural watershed in the eastern United States urban effects may contain urban influences causing could be expected to produce an increase of about increases of 0. Thus. exceedences per year for rural stations.17°C less than been predicted to produce an approximate 4°C the 0. 98 . In fact. 0. forcing. and 99th Centigrade. Likewise.26 for urban stations.2°C from 1901 to 1950.000 people as of 1990.S. (2003) as “the northernmost to evaluate the magnitude of unsuspected heat island settlement in the USA and the largest native effects that may be present in small towns and cities community in the Arctic. Hence. year was found to be 0. a 10 percent 1890 to 1950.4°C.6°C heating of the atmosphere. This work revealed that soil temperature in than 4600 in 2000”—the four researchers installed 54 the totally rural setting experienced an increase from temperature-recording instruments in mid-June of the decade of 1901-1910 to the decade of 1941-1950 2001.57°C warming derived from data obtained at the increase in the mean near-surface air temperature of three benchmark stations closest to the site of the soil the globe. who used a series of measurements per year over the same time period was found to be 50 of soil temperatures obtained in a totally rural setting percent greater at urban stations than it was at rural in central Illinois between 1889 and 1952 and a stations.3°C. Historical Climatology Network to calculate transformation could increase the near-surface air trends in the occurrence of maximum and minimum temperature by as much as a quarter of a degree temperatures greater than the 90th. Historical Climatology resulted in a 31 percent decrease in watershed Network. hence.” rural-to-urban transformation could well produce a DeGaetano and Allen (2002b) used data from the warming on the order of 1. the be devoid of all human influence. rate of increase in the annual number of daily A case in point is provided by the study of maximum temperature 95th percentile exceedences Changnon (1999).09 with the very first hint of urbanization and.2°C less than the 0.2°C less than the 0. And it is 0. Alaska—which is described similar data obtained from other nearby small towns). to a first approximation. which is supposedly corrected for urban evaporation and a 13 W/m2 increase in sensible heating effects. It is also 0.6°C calculated that complete transformation from 100 warming determined for the same time period from percent rural to 100 percent urban characteristics the entire dataset of the U.” the population of which that are typically assumed to be free of urban-induced “has grown from about 300 residents in 1900 to more warming. the fledgling urban heat island effect temperatures at urban stations nearly three times may already be present in many temperature records greater than the rate of increase at rural stations less that have routinely been considered “rural enough” to affected by growing urban heat islands. In the case of daily warm minimum gas-induced effect of urbanization on the energy temperatures.” He further 13°C in near-surface air temperature over the central notes—in a grand understatement—that “this could portion of the watershed. and 0. percentile across the United States over the period This powerful anthropogenic but non-greenhouse1960-1996. by Hinkel et al. the slope of the regression line fit to the balance of watersheds and the temperature of the data of a plot of the annual number of 95th percentile boundary-layer air above them begins to express itself exceedences vs. half of them within the urban area and the other that amounted to 0.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! This warming is 0. contemporary set of air temperature measurements Working on the Arctic Coastal Plain near the made in an adjacent growing community (as well as Chuckchi Sea at Barrow. 95th. which has often 6.

which changes. “reaching a peak value of around 6°C in JanuaryFebruary. In fact. the spatially averaged temperature of the urban area of Barrow was about 2°C warmer than that of the rural area.3°C in maximum (daytime) and minimum (nighttime) daily temperatures. and that it was not uncommon for the daily magnitude of the urban heat island to exceed 4°C. are “consistent with most short-term (~50 year) global change scenarios regarding CO2 concentration and air temperature. therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. These seeds sprouted in the spring of the year. the urban-rural temperature difference was observed to achieve hourly magnitudes exceeding 9°C.7°C) sites. they say that on some days the magnitude of the urban heat island exceeded 6°C. after which they were filled with identical soils. stating that “atmospheric CO2 was consistently and significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the five years of the study.” And they again noted that the increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature they observed “are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change. In this paper. (2004) working within and around Baltimore. dried and weighed. we find Ziska et al.6 and 3. Three years later. Moving south.” and those results indicate that rising air temperatures and CO2 concentrations tend to produce dramatic increases in the productivity of the natural ecosystems typical of the greater Baltimore area and. four 2 x 2 m plots were excavated to a depth of about 1. At each of these locations. while noting that the warmest individual site temperatures were “consistently observed in the urban core area.” It was also determined that the daily urban-rural temperature difference increased with decreasing wind speed. they describe the results they obtained for the following winter. there is no way that temperature measurements made within the range of influence of even a small village can be adjusted to the degree of accuracy that is required to reveal the true magnitude of the pristine rural temperature change. when the presence of a mere 4. and that values in excess of 8°C were sometimes recorded. and the plants they produced were allowed to grow until they senesced in the fall.” In addition. respectively. and maximum plant height were positively affected by daytime and soil temperatures as well as enhanced CO2. Clearly. Maryland. determined as final above-ground biomass.” and that “air temperature was also consistently and significantly higher at the urban site (14. relative to the rural site.5 km from the city center). they determined that “productivity. they determined the urban area to be 2. in their words.500 people can create a winter heat island that may be two orders of magnitude greater than the signal being sought. Last of all. probably those of many other areas as well. increasing 60 and 115% for the suburban and urban sites.2°C in the winter. all of which provided air temperature data at hourly intervals approximately two meters above the surface of the ground. by inference. Hinkel and Nelson (2007) reported that for the period 1 December to 31 March of four consecutive winters. Ziska et al.” specifically noting that “urban areas are currently experiencing elevated atmospheric CO2 and 99 . under simultaneous calm and cold conditions.1 m. the top layers of which contained seeds of naturally occurring plants of the area. after which all of them were cut at ground level. Four years later.8°C) compared to the suburban (13. George et al.Observations:!Temperature!Records! half distributed across approximately 150 km of surrounding land.6°C) and rural (12.1°C per decade).” These results indicate just how difficult it is to measure a background global temperature increase that is believed to have been less than 1°C over the past century (representing a warming of less than 0. During this period. such that under calm conditions (< 2 m s-1) the daily urban-rural temperature difference was 3. the only consistent differences in the environmental variables they measured were a rural-to-urban increase of 21 percent in average daytime atmospheric CO2 concentration and increases of 1. where they characterized the gradual changes that occur in a number of environmental variables as one moves from a rural location (a farm approximately 50 km from the city center) to a suburban location (a park approximately 10 km from the city center) to an urban location (the Baltimore Science Center 2 ! approximately 0. Based on urban-rural spatial averages for the entire winter period (December 2001-March 2002). report that along the rural-tosuburban-to-urban transect. respectively. the mean daily urban-rural temperature difference increased with decreasing temperature.” The three researchers say their results suggest that “urban environments may act as a reasonable surrogate for investigating future climatic change in vegetative communities.2°C warmer than the rural area. (2007) reported on five years of work at the same three transect locations. removed.

Jáuregui (2005) examined the effect of this area.” which implies that “larger after which they estimated what the strength of the increases. after which they past 30 years. In doing so.” where noontime air temperatures were models and assessments often assume that the as much as 3°C greater than those of surrounding influence would be uniform (Hansen et al. creating an Working further south still. over the San Juan metropolitan century.” Consequently.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! work revealed that surface temperature differences temperature levels that can significantly affect plant between urbanized areas and limited vegetated areas growth compared to rural areas. may not be exempt from the same local in the tropical coastal city of San Juan. In this particular study. rural areas.” upon their data of the past 40 years.” In addition. obtaining surface the 1950-1990 minimum air temperature series of temperatures.. for the mean maximum temperature. they concluded that “if century via an analysis of air temperatures measured we assume that global warming affects all regions of at a height of approximately two meters above ground the state. and over and land use (LCLU) changes in San Juan... Leung et al.. Puerto Rico climate change effects and urban heat island effects that has been increasing at a rate of 0. climate change of downtown. based on intensive urbanization.” and that “areas of intensive surface air temperature record of the planet and urbanization showed the largest positive trends. (2007) urban heat island with “the peak of the high report that “when speculating on how global warming temperature dome exactly over the commercial area would impact the state [of California].” In fact. Velazquez-Lozada et al. pattern over land. cooling. which they conducted in and about San Juan.” Gonzalez et al.06°C per year for the various sub-regions of the state.and large-sized cities took and infrared wavebands—flew several flight lines.06°C per year seen in large continental cities. then the small increases seen in rural level within four different LCLU types (urbanstations can be an estimate of this general warming coastal. for the last 40 years. rural-inland. LaDochy et al. expected in the future as coastal cities become more In pursuing this protocol.” Learjet—carrying the Airborne Thermal and Land Noting that a mass population migration from Applications Sensor (ATLAS) that operates in visual rural Mexico into medium. In addition. 2004). they report that (2005) describe the results of their research into this predicted LCLU changes between now and 2050 will topic. 2004. it is probable that this found that “most regions showed a stronger increase phenomenon has long been operative in coastal cities in minimum temperatures than with mean and around the world. One year later. “must then be due to local or anticipated LCLU changes and a model predicated regional surface changes. similar to those reported in [their] article may be such as the air’s CO2 concentration. Puerto five times the state’s mean rate for the minimum Rico over the last four decades of the twentieth temperature. Gonzalez et al. the El Yunque National Forest east of San Juan. helping to erroneously inflate the maximum temperatures. lead to an urban heat island effect “as high as 8°C for Puerto Rico. rapid urbanization on city air temperatures. the eleven researchers report Hayhoe et al.” such as those they observed in areas of urban heat island might be in the year 2050. 1998. (2006) exhibited rates of warming “over twice those for the evaluated the thermal impacts of historical land cover state.” were higher than 3°C during daytime.” attempted to evaluate the influence of human-induced In discussing their findings.. while contributing to the infamous “hockey stick” rural. place throughout the second half of the twentieth both day and night. a NASA the year 2050. they [air] temperature of the city has revealed that the local calculated temperature trends over the 50-year period temperature has been increasing over the neighboring 1950-2000 to explore the extent of warming in vegetated areas at a rate of 0. analyzing plus other nearby areas. on the other hand. state changes to the landscape on the observed temperature that “the urban heat island dominates the sea breeze trends and determine their significance compared to effects in downtown areas. rural-coastal and urban-inland). This 100 . they report that the Northeast highly touted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Interior Basins of the state actually experienced Climate Change. their Noting that “breezy cities on small tropical work revealed “the existence of an urban heat island islands . non-agricultural regions showed the least representation of this parameter that has been so warming.” and they say that “trends those caused by changes in atmospheric composition. Large urban sites. while strategically placed ground seven large cities with populations in excess of a instruments recorded local air temperatures.” Indeed.” Feeling a that “a recent climatological analysis of the surface need to assess the validity of this assumption. the three researchers populated.

Many of them fall far short of that standard [italics in the original]. They then employed a onedimensional infrared radiation simulation model to determine the thermal impact of the urban CO2 dome on the near-surface temperature of the city.57°C per decade. Although the doings of man are indeed responsible for high urban air temperatures (which can sometimes rise 10°C or more above those of surrounding rural areas). Due to extensive corruption of land-based temperature data from urban heat islands.” One additional question that may arise in relation to this topic is the direct heating of near-surface air in towns and cities by the urban CO2 dome that occurs above them.000 to 700. Balling et al. This work indicated that temperature trends were positive at all locations.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! million people and seven medium-sized cities with populations ranging from 125. Does it contribute significantly to the urban heat island? In a study designed to answer this question.” Watts is also extremely critical of adjustments to the raw data made by both NOAA and NASA.74°C per decade. We found stations surrounded by asphalt parking lots and located near roads. This insight is not new: more than three decades ago. Watts recruited a team of more than 650 volunteers to visually inspect the temperature stations used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to measure changes in temperatures in the U. where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas. and buildings that absorb and radiate heat. creating a calculated surface warming of only 0. overshadowing the effects of natural temperature change. ranging from 0. which is about an order of magnitude less than the urban heat island effect of cities the size of Phoenix. and humidity over Phoenix. while the average trend for the seven mid-sized cities was 0. Oke (1973) demonstrated that towns with as few as a thousand inhabitants typically create a warming of the air within them that is more than twice as great as the increase in mean global air temperature believed to have occurred since the end of the Little Ice Age. once again in the direction of falsely raising temperature readings.” The results of these several North American studies demonstrate that the impact of population growth on the urban heat island effect is very real and can be very large.02°C per decade to 0. returning from a central-city surface value on the order of 600 ppm to a normal non-urban background value of approximately 378 ppm at an air pressure of 800 hPa. discovered compelling evidence that the temperature stations used to reconstruct the U. In fact. which “far from correcting the warming biases.000 people. sidewalks. the average trend for the seven large cities was 0. Jáuregui says they “suggest that the accelerated urbanization process in recent decades may have substantially contributed to the warming of the urban air observed in large cities in Mexico. these high values are not the result of a local CO2-enhanced greenhouse effect. “using the same quality standards established by NOAA.12°C at the time of maximum CO2-induced warming potential. (2002) obtained vertical profiles of atmospheric CO2 concentration. causing them to report much. temperature. they found that 89 percent of the stations – nearly 9 of every 10 – fail to meet NOAA’s own siting requirements for stations with an expected reporting error of less than 1º C. Arizona from measurements made in association with once-daily aircraft flights conducted over a 14-day period in January 2000 that extended through. while the urban heat islands of the great metropolises of the world create warmings that rival those that occur between full-fledged ice ages and interglacials.higher-than-actual temperatures. In discussing these results. actually compounded the measurement errors. In the researcher’s words.” Watts goes on to report finding stations “located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units. in research too new to have appeared yet in a peer-reviewed journal. surface temperature are unreliable and systemically biased toward recording more warming over time.S. the North 101 .37°C per decade. the authors concluded that the warming induced by the urban CO2 dome of Phoenix is possibly two orders of magnitude smaller than that produced by other sources of the city’s urban heat island. Extensive research conducted since then by independent scientists has confirmed Oke’s finding. the top of the city’s urban CO2 dome during the times of its maximum manifestation. We found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants.” Watts also discovered that failure to adequately account for changes in the technology used by temperature stations over time—including moving from whitewash to latex paint and from mercury thermostats to digital technology—“have further contaminated the data. Grouped by population. These exercises revealed that the CO2 concentration of the air over Phoenix dropped off rapidly with altitude. and far above. Meteorologist Anthony Watts (2009).S.

Oecologia 139: 454-458. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 3935-3937. 2002. Atmospheric Environment 7: 769-779. EOS: Transactions. Washington. 2004. International Journal of Climatology 23: 1889-1905. and Nelson.W.M. Sato. Alexandria. S. Frumhoff.D...1029/2006JD007837. R. et al.C.. J.O. References Balling Jr. Bian. and Allen. Hansen.R. 2007. Emissions. City size and the urban heat island. 1999. Bunce. Athens.E. W. 2003.L. and Idso.. and Goins. Han. Recent reviews of newer publications as they become California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns available. 102 Leung. 1973. C. Streutker. Trends in twentiethcentury temperature extremes across the United States. E. Urban heat islands developing in coastal tropical cities. Harmsen. B. K.co2science. Arizona contribute to its heat island? Geophysical Research Letters 28: 4599-4601.org/ in temperature trends. Changnon.H. 2007.E.H. Temperature Record Reliable? Chicago. D. Four of the cities exhibited overall warming trends and four of them cooling trends.. Additional information on this topic.3. Comarazamy.C. Klene. George. D. Gonzalez. but Hasanean reports that the latter warming was “not uniform.M. Hinkel. Field. A.K. and Winter. R. J. 3.. C. and Ruedy. Y.H. Cerveny. Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. A. 1995.... Urban heat island effect analysis for San Juan. subject/u/uhinorthamerica. H. theory of global warming.A. Watts. Alaska... Ramirez. Anthropogenic heat island at Barrow. L. Amman. can be found at http://www. Asia Hasanean (2001) investigated surface air temperature trends with data obtained from meteorological stations located in eight Eastern Mediterranean cities: Malta. IL: The Heartland Institute. J. Cambridge University Press. F. Williams. J. Vasquez.E. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature across an urban-rural transect.. D. Luvall. A. 2000. K.. J. 1998.M. pathways. Atmospheric Environment 40: 1731-1741.. Puerto Rico.S.. 2004.T. One interpretation of this nonuniformity of temperature behavior in the 1970s is that it may have been the result of temporal .E. Dow. Climatic Change 62: 75-113. A. as well as a second warming in the 1970s.. Velazquez-Lozada.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Jáuregui. R.. and DeWalle. Atmospheric Environment 41: 7654-7665.403. Atmosfera providing reliable data in support of the greenhouse 18: 249-252. Ziska.B. 2002. continuous or of the same order” as the warming that began about 1910. Bunce. Medina. A rare long record of deep soil temperatures defines temporal temperature changes and an urban heat island.E.427. Trends in evaporation and Bowen ratio on urbanizing watersheds in eastern United States.W.. K. K. and Patzert. with Malta having the longest temperature record (1853-1991) and Latakia the shortest (1952-1991). 2005. P. W.R. Cayan. G. nor was it evident at all of the stations.R. 2001. and Waide. Ziska. J.3. DeGaetano. Hinkel. D. F. and Quebedeaux. Satellite-measured growth of the urban heat island of Houston.. E. including LaDochy. Beirut. Climate Research 33: 159-169. R. 2004..A. The Science of Climate Change. R. In addition.. Climate Change 1995.. Is the U.C. L.E. A. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). S. J. X. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 101: 12. A commonsense climatic index: Is climate change noticeable? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 95: 4113-4120.R. 2009. 2006. J.. J. M. Possible impact of urbanization on the American temperature record cannot be cited as thermal climate of some large cities in Mexico. A. Nelson.A.. C. and Latakia.422-12. Qian. Does the urban CO2 dome of Phoenix. J. The period of analysis varied from station to station according to available data. R. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: 10. there was an important warming around 1910 that began nearly simultaneously at all of the longer-record stations. The urban heat island in winter at Barrow. Oke. Picon. T. Alaska.. Characterization of an urban-rural CO2/temperature gradient and associated changes in initial plant productivity during secondary succession. R. Maul. Texas. E. Cambridge. Glascoe. Hayhoe. Gonzalez. and Davis. Climatic Change 42: 531-538. Water Resources Research 36: 1835-1843. Remote Sensing of Environment 85: 282-289. A. Rickman. and Roads.S. Parsiani.. during winter: 2001-2005. 2003. and Bell. Seawater temperature trends at USA tide gauge sites.A.M. 2007. Jerusalem.php. and impacts on California. Tripoli. R. climate change. D. Journal of Climate 15: 3188-3205. N. U. L.J.. American Geophysical Union 86: 397. 2005.

830. one being located inland and one on a remote island.” and that the background climatic trends from urbanized areas might therefore be contaminated by a growing urban heat island effect. (2004b) found that over the past several decades.000) over the period 19681999.5°C for Seoul and 0.4°C for the 10 stations.” Hence.3°C increase was observed at the two rural sites.075°C per decade). (2004a) report there was an “overlapping of the rapid urbanization-industrialization period with the global warming era. This analysis revealed.. while the change of annual mean daily mean temperature at Seoul was an increase of 0.000 km2) via a series of 103 . They found “during the last 29 years. or 0. Weng (2001) evaluated the effect of land cover changes on surface temperatures of the Zhujiang Delta (an area of slightly more than 17. they indicate that “none of the rural stations used for this study can represent a true non-urbanized environment. maximum. where population increase was greatest. (2004a).” Consequently. In the case of annual mean daily maximum temperature. one comprised of six smaller urban stations with a mean 1995 population of 548.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! differences in city urbanization histories that were accentuated about that time. they correctly conclude that their results are underestimates of the true urban effect. while two (where populations actually decreased) were rural. corresponding results for urban areas of intermediate size defined a linear relationship that connected these two extreme results when plotted against the logarithm of population increase over the two-decade period. because the urban area is still much smaller than natural and agricultural ecosystems in Korea.” Specifically. (2004b) evaluated temperature changes at 10 urban and rural Korean stations over the period 1974-2002. Chung et al. and mean temperature at 14 synoptic stations were prepared for 1951-1980 (past normal) and 1971-2000 (current normal) periods. the change in the annual mean daily mean temperature was an increase of 0.075°C per decade). and one comprised of six “rural” stations with a mean 1995 population of 214. in their words. say it is “necessary to subtract the computed urbanization effect from the observed data at urban stations in order to prepare an intended nationwide climatic atlas.. while a mere 0.” Twelve of these stations were growing urban sites of various size. as in the study of Chung et al.000. annual mean daily minimum temperature increased by 0. they state that “rapid industrialization of the Korean Peninsula occurred during the late 1970s and late 1980s. Hence.275°C per decade (indicative of an urban-induced warming of 0.1°C increase was detected at one of the two rural sites and a 0.” while increases in mean January temperatures ranged from 0. much (and in many cases most) of the warming experienced in the urban areas of Korea was the result of local urban influences that were not indicative of regional background warming. Chung et al.” noting that “rural climatological normals should be used instead of the conventional normals to simulate ecosystem responses to climatic change. In a more direct study of the urban heat island effect that was conducted in South Korea. the increase in annual mean temperature was 1.” after which “regression equations were used to determine potential effects of urbanization and to extract the net contribution of regional climate change to the apparent temperature change. report that in Seoul. for no net change in their aggregate mean value. which could have resulted in significantly different urban heat island trajectories at the several sites over the latter portions of their records. In light of the significantly intensifying urban heat island effect detected in their study.55°C. Chung et al.2°C per decade in addition to the regional background warming of 0. To investigate this possibility. In addition.000.4°C increase was observed at Seoul and a 0. a 0. they say “monthly averages of daily minimum.” In addition.50°C for large urban stations. they note that “estimates of the annual mean magnitude of urban bias range from 0.8 to 2. Also.6°C for the rural and seashore stations. Chung et al.7°C. In terms of change over the 20 years that separated the two normal periods.15°C at the two rural sites (indicative of regional background warming of 0. that the “temperatures of large urban stations exhibit higher urban bias than those of smaller urban stations and that the magnitude of urban bias has increased since the late 1980s. correlate with the distribution of increases in temperature. and that “urban growth biases are very serious in South Korea and must be taken into account when assessing the reliability of temperature trends.” In a second study conducted in South Korea.35°C for smaller urban stations to 0. “the remarkable industrialization and expansion . (2003) compared the mean station temperatures of three groupings of cities (one comprised of four large urban stations with a mean 1995 population of 4.” A third study of South Korea conducted by Chung et al. Shifting attention to China.” and that when plotted on a map. Choi et al.1°C decrease was detected at the other.

Zhou et al. in their words.” The temperature data yielded essentially identical trends.” produce a radiant temperature change image that they which they say “is much larger than previous overlaid with images of urban expansion. by nearly 50 percent.” noting reports.05°C per decade attributable to urbanization. they practices and are now at levels that exceed the found that the surface. for (based on atmospheric vertical soundings derived example. Consequently. Chen et al. however. observed soil moisture forcing.. including indicated. The results estimates for other periods and locations.” area of Shanghai but only 0. 2003). they point out that the 0. that increase of 13.. Chen et al.” because their analysis “is from the winter season over In Shanghai. which main factor causing the intensity of the heat island in temperatures. Kalnay and Cai (2003) used suggest that “a potential explanation for the difference differences between trends in directly observed between reanalysis and station trends is the extensive surface air temperature and trends determined from local and regional land use change that has occurred the NCEP-NCAR 50-year Reanalysis (NNR) project across the TP over the last 50 years. while in the found that its strength increased in essentially linear second approach they used 2-meter temperatures from fashion from 1977 to 1997 by 1°C. the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Commenting on this finding.” stations in and around this hub of economic activity In a similar study. and other sources including some surface that in 1995 the Environment Research Center of observations. each year from 1958 through 2000. report that over the period 1958addition.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! same technique over southeast China.” They note. Then. that “urban development the estimate of 0. However.” This approach. they say that “no which is indicative of the fact that ongoing trends are evident in the ERA-40 data for the plateau intensification of even strong urban heat islands as a whole.027°C for the continental U. and a more 1997.” and they note effects. that “over the last 30 years. 2004). satellite retrievals. Chen et al. Defining the urban heat island of Shanghai as stations located throughout the Tibetan Plateau (TP) the mean annual air temperature difference between to calculate the region’s mean annual temperature for urban Longhua and suburban Songjiang. In Frauenfeld et al. aircraft consumption due to economic development.16°C per decade. 2003). the area of land devoted to agriculture declined accurate characterization of clouds. by close to the same percentage.05°C/decade trend of 0. They found that between 1989 and physics. by Liu and Chen (2000). resultant overgrazing. while urban land area increased For the period January 1979 to December 1998. livestock from satellites and balloons) to estimate the impact of numbers across the TP have increased more than land-use changes on surface warming. they used image differencing to of 0.5 Wm-2 in its suburbs. say “the Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-40).” cannot be discounted. using an analyses of remotely sensed Landsat Thematic improved version of reanalysis that includes newer Mapper data. In discussing this discrepancy. we expect our results including its likely cause.” They note. Peking University determined that the annual heating results in “more temporally homogeneous fields” that intensity due to energy consumption by human -2 provide “a better assessment of large-scale activities was approximately 25 Wm in the urban temperature variability across the plateau. Zeng et al. in Weng’s words. Frauenfeld et al. the three scientists Simultaneously. “time series based on aggregating all station intensification of Shanghai’s urban heat island is an data on the TP show a statistically significant positive order of magnitude greater than the 0.5°C/decade 2000.01°C in surface radiant temperature. (2003) evaluated several a period of rapid urbanization and for a country with a characteristics of that city’s urban heat island.” as has also been reported global warming of the earth over the past century. (2004) applied the 104 . much higher population density. in their words. upon the eight scientists involved in the work derived an normalizing the surface radiant temperature for the “estimated warming of mean surface [air] temperature years 1989 and 1997. “has caused land implying that differences between the two approaches degradation and desertification at an alarming rate over urban areas would represent urban heat island (Zhu and Li. based on analyses of to give higher values than those estimated in other monthly meteorological data from 1961 to 1997 at 16 locations and over longer periods. according to them.S. Over 200% due to inappropriate land management undisturbed rural areas of the United States. (2005) used that is one of the most flourishing urban areas in all of daily surface air temperature measurements from 161 China. between 1989 and 1997 has given rise to an average (Kalnay and Cai. “are derived from Shanghai is associated with the increasing energy rawinsonde profiles.and reanalysis-derived air carrying capacity of the region (Du et al. 2000.

uncertainties.” and that “even villages and small towns can exhibit a strong urban heat island effect.co2science. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia.g. Frauenfeld. M. J. Yoon. and Chen. X. and Kim. W. and Hughes. H.K. and Wessels.-S. Bradley. Brandsma et al. 1998. and Kwon.S. M. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 68: 75-87. and Serreze. J... T.. Zhang.R.. Additional information on this topic.” We note that when the surface-generated anomalies are removed. Kalnay.. the pre-1950 Lhasa) now only comprises 4% of the city. contributing to both urbanization and a changed landscape. M. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Adjusting urban bias in the regional mean surface temperature series of South Korea.1029/2004JD005230. Zhou. Characteristics of the heat island effect in Shanghai and its possible mechanism. Du. Choi. Global and Planetary Change 41: 241-249. R. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Zhang. and limitations.. C. Impacts of land degradation on historical temperature records from the Sonoran desert.P. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Climatic Change 66: 151-161.-T.. 2005. 2000. 2003.E. 1999). Klopatek. Likewise. L.-B. C.g.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! that “in other parts of the world. 2003. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1729-1742.J.e. In conclusion. M. 2004b. Zhu. X. X.M.D. M. B. Z. Y. Jung. Hasanean. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: 10. 2001. 2004. as in the case of the ERA-40 reanalysis results they present. which can result in 8°-11°C higher temperatures than in surrounding rural areas (e.. Climatic Change 40: 669-681. O. Mann. On climate variations and changes observed in South Korea.. Moritz. (1998. 2003). Urbanization effect on the observed change in mean monthly temperatures between 1951-1980 and 1971-2000. E. Chen. R. H. 1998.E.1029/2003GL017814..I. Mutual influence between human activities and climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during recent years. M. S. Brandsma.” In concluding their analysis of the situation. 1998).” And they add that “similar population increases have occurred at other locations across the TP. Bradley. and Jones.. G. Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate. Nam. and Yun. 1999... Climatic Change 66: 127-136.M.-S. H.” noting that “construction of a gas pipeline in the 1970s and highway expansion projects in the early 1980s have resulted in a dramatic population influx from other parts of China. Fluctuations of surface air temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean.S..C. 1968-99. A remote sensing-GIS evaluation of urban expansion and its impact on surface temperature in the 105 . Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences.C. Chung.E. suggesting a 2400% increase in size over the last 50 years.A. M. and Cai. International Journal of Climatology 23: 829-845. M. W. contend that “these local changes are reflected in station temperature records. Hildebrandt. land degradation due to overgrazing has been shown to cause significant local temperature increases (e. 2003. M. R.K.org/ subject/u/uhiasia. Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. K. U. Kawashima. can be found at http://www.php References Balling Jr. 2001. Chung.-Y. Yonemura. a large body of research conducted by scores of scientists working in countries around the world reveals that the twentieth century warming claimed by the IPCC.K. Choi. we submit that the other results reported in this section imply much the same about other parts of China and greater Asia.. Mann. has also occurred extensively on the TP. P. H. 2004a.. M. Nature 392: 779-787. Konnen. and Watts. J. Q. International Journal of Climatology 23: 577-591. 2003.” In this regard. Mann. Frauenfeld et al. S. 2003. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. Nature 423: 528-531.. it is clear there has been no warming of the Tibetan Plateau since at least 1958. Mann et al. Weng. they say that “the original Tibetan section of Lhasa (i. Empirical estimation of the effect of urban heat advection on the temperature series of DeBilt (the Netherlands). Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20: 991-1001. and Mann and Jones (2003) to represent mean global background conditions is likely significantly biased towards warming over the past 30 years and is therefore not a true representation of earth’s recent thermal history.” Another point they raise is that “urbanization. Y. Liu.W.L. and Chen.. and Hughes. and Zhou.-S.. Climate change and variability using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA-40) temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau. S. T.. Balling et al...

B. Fang. L.4. The attempted match of warming trends with altitude turned out to be spurious. 3. and Myneni.) Mountain Genecology and Sustainable Development of the Tibetan Plateau. R. Dickinson. 2003. it has become possible to apply the fingerprint method in a more realistic way. IPCC-SAR concluded that “the balance of evidence” supported AGW. This was done in a report issued by the U. 1996). New York. The CCSP report is an outgrowth of an NAS report “Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change” issued in January 2000 (NAS.. p. northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. titled “Detection and Attribution. Z.) Climate changes due to solar variability or other known natural factors will not yield this pattern. 15. While an agreement of such fingerprints cannot prove an anthropogenic origin for warming. Tucker. p. Evidence for a significant urbanization effect on climate in China. 2006). With the availability of higher-quality temperature data. 2007-I. Y. USA. and Li. In spite of these shortcomings. Natural hazards and environmental issues. p.1. and [F] all forcings (U. only sustained greenhouse warming will do so. In: Zheng. Mountain Research and Development 23: 353-361. Six years later.4.K. C. It is . Q. Land cover change and its environmental impact in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. since it depended entirely on a particular choice of time interval for the comparison (Michaels and Knappenberger.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Zhujiang Delta. [E] solar irradiance. Model-calculated zonal mean atmospheric temperature change from 1890 to 1999 (degrees C per century) as simulated by climate models from [A] well-mixed greenhouse gases. Zhang.S. Tian. Kaufmann. [D] volcanic aerosols. especially from balloons and satellites. and Cao. Zhu.S. Its Chapter 8. J. 2000).E. Fingerprints Is there a method that can distinguish anthropogenic global warming from natural warming? The IPCC (IPCC-SAR.. Note the pronounced increase in warming trend with altitude in figures A and F.. R. 203-222. Zeng. Similarly. 2000.B. International Journal of Remote Sensing 22: 1999-2014. pp. A mismatch would argue strongly against any significant contribution from greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and support the conclusion that the observed warming is mostly of natural origin.4. p. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) in April 2006—making it readily available to the IPCC for its Fourth Assessment Report—and it permits the most realistic comparison of fingerprints (Karl et al. Singer.. p. Climate models all predict that. China. L.. and with improved GH models.J. an attempt to correlate the observed and calculated geographic 106 Figure 3. and Wu. 411. pp. 43-44). Springer.1. Feng. if GHG is driving climate change. the region of the atmosphere up to about 15 kilometers. there will be a unique fingerprint in the form of a warming trend increasing with altitude in the tropical troposphere. 1999. [C] stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. [B] sulfate aerosols (direct effects only).. 9. the CCSP report expanded considerably on the NAS study. distribution of surface temperature trends (Santer et al. (See Figure 3. Y. Q. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 101: 9540-9544. New York. (Eds. It compares the observed pattern of warming with a pattern calculated from greenhouse models. 668) and many scientists believe the “fingerprint” method is the only reliable one. 1996. 2004.. R.. That NAS report compared surface and troposphere temperature trends and concluded they cannot be reconciled. S. 22). 1996) involved making changes on a published graph that could and did mislead readers (Singer.” attributed observed temperature changes to anthropogenic factors—greenhouse gases and aerosols. Climate Change Science Program 2006. 1996. 2000.. IPCC. Li. which the IPCC identified as the ‘fingerprint’ of greenhouse forcing. 411). G. Zhou. D. The fingerprint method was first attempted in the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR) (IPCCSAR. it would be consistent with such a conclusion.

By contrast. It tries to dismiss the obvious disagreement shown in the body of the report by suggesting there might be something wrong with both balloon and satellite data. 111. It does not. p. The CCSP executive summary inexplicably claims agreement between observed and calculated patterns.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! Figure 3.4.4. p. the opposite of what the report itself documents. As seen in Figure 3.) Figure 3.2. the executive summary of the CCSP report presents the same information as Figure 3.S.4. p. peaking around 10 km at roughly two times the surface value. The same information also can be expressed by plotting the difference between surface trend and troposphere trend for the models and for the data (Singer.e. 25.4. 13). the use of ‘range’ is clearly inappropriate (Douglass et al. analyses. Note the increased temperature trends in the tropical mid_troposphere. the temperature data from balloons give the opposite result: no increasing warming. this is figure 1. 2001). 2007) since it gives undue weight to ‘outliers. Figure 3. many people do not read beyond the summary and have therefore been misled to believe the CCSP report supports anthropogenic warming.4. See Figures 3.2 and 3. By contrast. the models show a histogram of negative values (i. essentially a specialized report addressing the most crucial issue in the global warming debate: Is current global warming anthropogenic or natural? The CCSP result is unequivocal. However.4 and 3.7E from CCSP 2006. the data points show balloon and satellite trend values.4G from CCSP 2006. 116.’! 107 . These trends are based on the analysis of radiosonde data by the Hadley Centre and are in good agreement with the corresponding U. By contrast.5. Greenhouse-model-predicted temperature trends versus latitude and altitude. While all greenhouse models show an increasing warming trend with altitude. but rather a slight cooling with altitude in the tropical zone. this is figure 5. p. in agreement also with the IPCC result (IPCC-AR4 2007. p.3. the data show mainly positive values for the difference in trends. Note the model results hardly overlap with the actual observed trends. this is figure 5. Another way of presenting the difference between temperature trends of surface and lower troposphere. (The apparent deviation of the RSS analysis of the satellite data is as yet unexplained.4.3. taken directly from the CCSP report.5. demonstrating that measured warming is occurring principally on the surface and not in the atmosphere.4. Notice the absence of increased temperature trends in the tropical mid-troposphere.4 in terms of ‘range’ and shows a slight overlap between modeled and observed temperature trends (Figure 4G. Figure 3.4. The model results show a spread of values (histogram). Unfortunately.4. observed temperature trends versus latitude and altitude. 675).4.3F from CCSP 2006. surface trend less than troposphere trend) indicating that atmospheric warming will be greater than surface warming.

This mismatch of observed and calculated fingerprints clearly falsifies the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming (AGW).D. NAS 2000. Qin.C. DC.6. Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate. 2007.4. then the greenhouse fingerprint would suggest the 108 .. Michaels. International Journal of Climatology (Royal Meteorol Soc). Reply. References Douglass. and Singer. A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. Cambridge University Press.htm. Chen.D. The summary for policymakers of IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007-I. . Manning.H. Hassol. M. D.) 2006. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. largely reconciling a discrepancy noted in the TAR. Tignor and H. 2004.J.6. W. Cambridge.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/final report/default. an insignificant AGW effect. The models show an increase in temperature trend with altitude but the observations show the opposite. National Academy of Sciences. 1996. Z. as shown in Figure 3.J. Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observations. C. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. D. P. Models show an increase in the warming trend with altitude.1002/joc. S. Human effect on global climate? Nature 384: 522-523. true surface trend should be only 30 to 50 percent of the observed balloon/satellite trends in the troposphere. Miller.” How is this possible? It is done partly by using the concept of “range” instead of the statistical distribution shown in Figure 12a.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! The same information can be expressed in yet a different way. S. American Geophysical Union 80: 33. K. Averyt. Santer. EOS: Transactions. If robust probability distributions were used they would show an exceedingly low probability of any overlap of modeled and the observed temperature trends. Human contribution to climate change remains questionable. and are consistent within their respective uncertainties.D. Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. and Murray. Also. . 2007]. but balloon and satellite observations do not. Geophysical Research Letters 31. UK. D.4.L.L. (Eds. Cambridge. 5) distorts the key result of the CCSP report: “New analyses of balloon-borne and satellite measurements of lowerand mid-tropospheric temperature show warming rates that are similar to those of the surface temperature record. 1996. In that case. National Academy Press. Douglass. DOI:10. J. A report by the Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A more detailed view of the disparity of temperature trends is given in this plot of trends (in degrees C/decade) versus altitude in the tropics [Douglass et al. and Knappenberger. T. 1999. Miller.climatescience.F. Karl. (Eds. M. which is mainly of natural origin. S. IPCC.R. M. S.) Cambridge University Press. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.F. The IPCC seems to be aware of this contrary evidence but has tried to ignore it or wish it away. P. But “range” is not a robust statistical measure because it gives undue weight to “outlier” results (Figure 12b).. as seen in research papers by Douglass et al. and Singer. We must conclude therefore that anthropogenic greenhouse gases can contribute only in a minor way to the current warming. UK.. B.B. Pearson. (2004.. p. S. IPCC-SAR 1996. Pearson. 186-187 and 372373. 2007). Climate Dynamics 12: 79-100. one would end up with a much-reduced surface warming trend. et al. Marquis. B.1651. Washington. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.H. and a minor greenhouse-induced warming in the future..R. If one takes greenhouse model results seriously. http://www. B.F. Singer. Christy. Solomon. Figure 3. 2007-I.

2007-I. Paper presented at 12th Symposium on Global Climate Change. 2005). “the detection and measurement of small changes in the Earth’s climate require extremely precise global observations of a broad spectrum of complementary physical variables. Remote Sensing System (RSS) (a small private weather forecasting firm led by the previously cited Frank Wentz).F.S.. Singer.F. CA. the article presented the first 10 years of satellite measurements of lower atmospheric temperature changes (from 1979 to 1988) and found “no obvious trend for the 10-year period. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and later a lead author of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report. 237). Stanford. Critics of the satellite data pointed to other possible and actual errors in the satellite record. Stanford University. In this endeavour. Disparity of temperature trends of atmosphere and surface. as it also was found in independent balloon comparisons (Christy et al. along with coauthors challenged the reliability of the satellite data (Trenberth.e. Essays in Public Policy 102.S. Climate policy—From Rio to Kyoto a political issue for 2000 and beyond. which it says “is broadly consistent with surface temperature trends” (IPCC.12º C to 0. distinguished professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. and lower stratosphere (LS). Most climate models predict that the troposphere should warm about 1. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. 2000. 1997). 2006). Four groups currently report MSU measurements: the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). and about 1. Although the MSUs mounted on satellites sent into orbit by NASA for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were not originally intended to be used to measure temperatures in the troposphere. 1990). It triggered a long-running debate. despite some ongoing debate. 3. of the U. Trenberth argued that Spencer and Christy had failed to properly calibrate the sensors on each new satellite as older satellites were retired and new ones launched into orbit. 1997. and Spencer and Christy made two adjustments based on these external criticisms for such things as orbit decay and changes in technology.5 times more in the tropics. In 1997. and John Christy. however. since we indicated in the previous section that the surface-based temperature record is unreliable and biased toward a spurious warming trend. satellite observations are playing an increasingly important role.2 times more than the surface globally. In this section we investigate the truth of the IPCC’s claim in this regard and report other findings based on satellite data. One of the larger changes was made to correct for drift in local crossing time (i. 1997. American Meteorological Society. RSS and UAH produce estimates of temperatures for the lower troposphere (LT). Albuquerque. then with NASA and now the U. change in the time-of-day that the measures are taken). 2007. are acknowledged to be a reliable source of information about temperatures in the troposphere (Christy et al. showed that the surface and tropospheric discrepancy was real. New data for the UAH series is posted every month on a Web site maintained at the University of Alabama at Huntsville. Many of the adjustments made by Christy and Spencer resulted in the satellite record 109 . S. the University of Maryland (UMd). NM. which continues to this day. This would be surprising. Hoover Institution. As Wentz and Schabel observed in an article in Nature in 1998.5. Trenberth and Hurrell.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! Singer. Santer et al. 1998). satellites provide daily near-global coverage with a very high statistical precision that results from averaging millions of individual observations” (Wentz and Schabel.. midtroposphere (MT).19º C per decade. an error discovered by Mears and Wentz (2005) and subsequently corrected by Christy and Spencer (2005)..” Although this finding covered too short a period of time to prove a trend. S. As compared to conventional in situ observations. based on a surface-satellite comparison. 2003. Published in Science in 1990 (Spencer and Christy. Hurrell and Trenberth. 2001. 1997). and a group from NOAA whose data series begins in 1987.. they have been used for this purpose since 1979 and. p. Kevin Trenberth. over the accuracy of the satellite data. UMd produces estimates only for MT (Christy and Norris. it seemed to contradict claims by some scientists at the time that a warming trend was underway. Satellite Data The IPCC claims that data collected by satellitemounted microwave sounding units (MSU) and advanced MSU measurements since 1979 reveal a warming trend of 0. Spencer and Christy. The first satellite record was produced by Roy Spencer.

” offered by those who have been predicting warming in fact significant differences in some values since the 1980s.096 ºC (NCDC). a panel of the U.14º C/decade may have been closer to correct. To say this is “broadly consistent. For Explanations exist for two of the biggest the Southern Hemisphere. correct errors in the Australian radiosondes record While the executive summary of the report claimed (Christy and Norris. This means the IPCC’s (Christy. Climate Change the Southern Hemisphere. The forecast if drastic GHG reductions were made. and as Hansen had predicted.2. discrepancy between satellite and surface records for In 2006. percent higher than the UAH’s record of 0. a variation of 0. as RSS temperature records “adjusted to mimic surface discussed in Section 3. temperature and sea-surface temperature (SST) “GISS-A 88” and “GISS-B 88. 2007-I. Similarly. The IPCC claims an even C/decade from January 1979 through December 2007. Herman (2009) using data collected from a subset of 6). and GISS (from happened. in Norwich. global 1979-2005 (IPCC. or a very sudden warming in RSS relative to UAH in January large 84 percent and 92 percent higher than the 1992. approximately 17 percent to 22. the UAH data series indicated that 41.” at the top of the records used by the IPCC: CRU (from the Climate graph. higher estimate of 0. IPCC lists temperature trends (ºC /decade) for each Obviously.3 reaches the 0. The first is a 0. 2006). comparison with the model projections (factor of 1.2.092º C (CRU) and 0. it is notable that Christy Science Program (CCSP) attempted to reconcile has been using the UAH database to detect and differences between satellite and surface-station data. compared to the UAH record of failed hypothesis test for the models from 1988” only 0. 2009).20º C. This feature has been found in comparison with 110 . the IPCC’s temperature records for the Graphs showing both data sets and a third graph Northern Hemisphere are CRU’s 0. compares the UAH and (especially in the important region of the tropics. All temperatures in 2009 were no higher than when three surface temperature records used by the IPCC Hansen testified in 1988.12º C. Recent research by Randall and which appears in the Summary for Policymakers (p. real-world temperatures have failed to rise record for the periods 1850-2005. Table 3. As Christy comments. 2009) and the surface station (as the IPCC does) that “this significant discrepancy record in East Africa (Christy et al. 248).14º during this 26-year period. Fingerprints) remained temperature variations for an apples to apples unsolved (CCSP. “GISS-C 88” is Hansen’s temperature NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies). Figure 3. we note that none of the warming rates weather balloon observations thought to be most reported in the IPCC’s Table 3.4.1)” to three model projections of global the warming trend during the last three decades surface temperature presented by NASA’s James reported by the three combined land-surface air Hansen in Senate testimony in 1988 (Christy. 1901-2005. Finally. is not accurate.05º C. thus 0. and indeed. show positive trends in global temperatures during the “Even the model projection for drastic CO2 cuts still 1979-2005 period (the period that can be checked against satellite data) of between 0.123º C/decade.5 appear in Figure 3. England).. Satellite data allow us to check the accuracy of CCSP SAP 1.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! UAH’s 0. p. 2009).5.163º C/decade and overshot the observations.” as showing a small warming trend of 0.17º C/decade. 2009). In light of the large 1979 and 2005.174 ºC /decade. NCDC (from the gas emissions would be similar to what actually has National Climatic Data Center). estimates of warming are between 33 percent and By 2008. while the UAH record of a small warming bias over global land areas.128º C/decade sits very close to the lowest estimate suggesting that the lower UAH estimate of of 0.19º C reliable suggests the RSS data incorporate an that the IPCC claimed to be the upper end of the improper handling of diurnal cycle effects that causes range of credible estimates.123 ºC between the IPCC does.5.S. This would be considered a 0. 0.5 percent more rapid than the most scientifically global temperatures in the lower atmosphere had accurate record we have of global temperatures warmed at the slightly higher rate of about 0. [between surface station records and satellite records] Satellite data also allow us to compare real-world no longer exists because errors in the satellite and temperatures to the predictions (or “scenarios”) radiosonde data have been identified and corrected.245º C.3.1. the IPCC’s estimates are differences between the two datasets.177º C/decade (44 percent higher while the RSS data series showed a warming rate of than UAH) in a graph on page 253.234º C and showing the difference between the two data sets NCDC’s 0. are Hansen’s two “business-as-usual” model Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East projections of temperature which assumed greenhouse Anglia.

the episodic nature of temperature changes during the 111 .. 25 February.1. whereas RSS relies on NOAA-15.5.” Moreover. http://waysandmeans. 2009. adjusted to mimic surface temperatures. which is drifting into warmer diurnal times. 2009 every other surface and tropospheric temperature dataset. Written testimony to House Ways and Means Committee.3. last accessed May 10. The implication here is that RSS is overcorrecting for this spurious warming by reporting too much cooling. Both data series show the rate of warming has slowed dramatically during the past seven to 12 years. The new trend toward less warming has prompted some scientists to wonder if the world’s climate experienced a trend break in 2001-2002. The second feature is the relative cooling of RSS vs. J. effectively returning the world to the temperatures that prevailed in the late 1980s and early 1990s.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! ! Figure 3.5. the early 1940s (ending a warming trend). Source: Christy. and the mid-1970s (ending a cooling trend). The graphs show that the temperature anomalies in the RSS dataset for November 2007 and December 2007 were below the 1979-1998 mean average for the first time since 2000. writing in Geophysical Research Letters. Swanson and Anastasios (2009). Actual temperature changes from UAH and RSS satellite data.gov/media/pdf/111/ctest. See Figure 3. indicating RSS contains a spurious warming shift at that time (Christy et al. UAH since 2006. This can be explained by the fact UAH uses a spacecraft (NASA’s Aqua) that is not subject to orbital drifting. below. 2007).pdf. compared to predictions made by James Hansen to Congress in 1988. which is being slowly mitigated by the more recent spurious cooling.house. the shifts unique to RSS create a spurious warming in the record. Overall. global temperature anomalies fell even further. say “a break in the global mean temperature trend from the consistent warming over the 1976/77– 2001/02 period may have occurred. Between the end of 2007 and early 2009.R. similar to ones that occurred around 1910 (ending a cooling trend).

(middle) data compiled by Remote Sensing Systems. said “the climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences” and “these multidecadal .2. past century is “difficult to reconcile with the presumed smooth evolution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol radiative forcing with respect to time” and “suggests that an internal reorganization of the climate system may underlie such shifts. 2008.worldclimatereport.php/category/temperaturehistory/satelliteballoons/. a scientist with Germany’s Leibniz Institute of Marine Science.” 112 Noel Keenlyside. Global temperature anomalies from the lower troposphere.com/index.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Figure 3. (top) Data compiled at the University of Alabama. Graphs were produced by Patrick Michaels using UAH and RSS data and first appeared in World Climate Report on February 7. January 1979 through December 2007.5. http://www. (bottom) difference between the two datasets (UAH minus RSS). writing with colleagues in a letter published in Nature.

. and third. Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. 2009. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 23: 1181-1194. 113 . J.R.. Karl. http://waysandmeans.” We predict more predictions of this kind as more scientists recognize. http://www. Christy. S.R. J. 25 February. T. last accessed May 10. as attention turns to natural cycles like those modeled by Keenlyside et al. Miller. second.gov/media/pdf/111/ctest. Hassol.com/latest-global-temperatures/. and Norris. last accessed May 10. whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Using a database of sea-surface temperature (SST) observations. Written testimony to House Ways and Means Committee. 2008). Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 25: OI:10. 2009.R. moreover. North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade. 2009.L. 2006. W. as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming. that estimates of past warming have been exaggerated by reliance on surface-station data that have been discredited by physical observation and by testing against superior satellite data. Christy.pdf. Washington..3. Discontinuity issues with radiosondes and satellite temperatures in the Australia region 1979-2006. they “make the following forecast: over the next decade. DC.drroyspencer. W. house.. as most scientists have known all along are more influential than the small effects of rising CO2 in the atmosphere.B. Christy. and Murray.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! ! Figure 3. (Eds. ! References CCSP.R. the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean..J. first. C.1.5. 2009. and Norris.D. UAH Globally Averaged Satellite-Based Temperature of the Lower Atmosphere.B. 2006. Satellite and VIZradiosonde intercomparisons for diagnosis of nonclimatic influences.) A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. W.1175/2008JTECHA1126. variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known” (Keenlyside et al. that recent temperature trends contradict past and recent forecasts by the IPCC and other prominent advocates of the theory that temperatures will steadily rise in response to increasing forcing by rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere. January 1979 – April 2009. Source: Roy Spencer. J.

R. 2005. K.W. Later in the report. 2007. and Hurrell. the IPCC says “the warming over land in the Arctic north of 65°C is more than double the warming in the global mean from the 19th century to the 21st century and also from about the late 1960s to the present. International Journal of Climatology. 2009. Norris. Nature 453: 84-88.1029/2005JD0068.. 1998. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: doi:10.. doi:10.E. and McNider.L. Using limited time period trends as a means to determine attribution of discrepancies in microwave sounding unit derived tropospheric temperature time series.M. W.R. Pearson. 2005. 22 (in press). Arctic The IPCC claims “average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. Norris. Solomon. Science 247: 1558-1562. Journal of Climate. and Hnilo. M. So has the Artic really experienced the so-called unprecedented warming of the twentieth century? References IPCC. 248). Spencer.F. J.E.1029/2007GLO296998. 2007-I. B. Keenlyside. Nature 386: 131-133.1002/joc.M. M. Z..1651.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Christy. Spencer. Spurious trends in the satellite MSU temperature record arising from merging different satellite records. W. Correcting temperature data sets. p. In the arctic series. Chen. Averyt. and Parker. Cambridge.R. B. E. Norris. F. S.. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.J. Miller. R.B. F. Manning. (Eds. J. UK. 2007-I. The effect of diurnal correction on satellite-derived lower tropospheric temperature.W. 2005 is the warmest year” (p. Qin. Braswell. K. et al. D.. Randall. Christy. Nature 386: 164-167. DOI:10. Effects of satellite orbital decay on MSU lower tropospheric temperature trends.. Averyt. M. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Tignor and H. J. Hurrell. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. K. Solomon. J.W. A. M. 2005. Manning. Mears. (Eds. Error estimates of version 5. 2007. and a warm period was also observed from 1925 to 1945” (IPCC 2007-I.. Kornblueh. 2007.L. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L15707. Trenberth. Qin. The use and abuse of climate models in climate change research.D. Science 309: 1551-1556.W. 3. and Herman. UK. Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. M.6.E. J.T. Science 309: 1548-1551. M. Christy. Spencer. S. Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites.W. J. J. 2008. R. K. Christy. J. D. and Christy. J. Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations.” Nature 389: 342-343. D.. Z.B. W.. 1997. How accurate are satellite “thermometers.0 of MSU-AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. M.R. Surface temperature variations in East Africa and possible causes. most notably the northern North Atlantic near southern Greenland” (p. Wentz.. Journal of Geophysical Research: doi:10. B. Science 310: 972. D. Santer.A.D. C.D.) Cambridge University Press. 2008. 2009.. Tignor and H.) Cambridge University Press. 114 .D. Douglass. Spencer. and Schabel. Miller.R.E. Spencer.A. J.1029/2007JD008864. 252).R. Christy. Christy.J. R.W. 1997. R.. doi:10. and Singer.H. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Christy. K. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.W. 1997.L. R.S. J. Trenberth. R. J. R. Cambridge. W.. Marquis.. N.” though it then acknowledges that “arctic temperatures have high decadal variability. J. and Wentz. D. K.B. 7). Swanson. IPCC. and Tsonis. 1997. Nature 394: 661-664.B. Chen. 2003. Latif. M. R.J. W. But the IPCC then admits that “a few areas have cooled since 1901. and Roeckner..B. Braswell.. Has the climate shifted? Geophysical Research Letters 36: L06711. L.R.1029/2008GL037022. and Trenberth. and Spencer. Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements.W. and Hnilo. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 20: 613-629. S. A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions.R. How accurate are satellite “thermometers”? Nature 389: 342-3. and Braswell. 1990. Marquis. Jungclaus.

Greenland Dahl-Jensen et al.000 to 7.5°C warmer than at present. which is another reason to not be concerned about the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content. Each of these observations raises serious doubts about the models’ ability to correctly forecast earth’s climatic response to the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content. the scientists report “temperatures reached a maximum around 1930 AD” and that “temperatures have decreased [our italics] during the last decades.” and that “the transition from one state to another occurs very rapidly when certain climatic parameters attain threshold values.” With respect to what has been learned from observations. he writes that “it is now recognized that the ocean-atmosphere system exhibits several stable regimes under equivalent external forcings. After the termination of the glacial period. and ice sheets are still unable to correctly simulate that variability on all scales in both time and space.5-0. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were also evident in the borehole data. which consistently suggest there should have been a significant CO2-induced warming in high northern latitudes over the past several decades. They also depict large temperature excursions over the past 10. Bard (2002) reviews the concept of rapid climate change. interglacial warmth seems to inoculate the planet against climatic instabilities.” but that “the system flips to another state once the flux reaches a threshold value F + deltaF.000 years ago) were 23 ± 2 °C colder than at present.” He also reports that “models coupling the atmosphere. In the Greenland record. during the Climatic Optimum of 4. temperatures increased steadily to a value that was 2. when the air’s CO2 content was relatively stable. Focusing on the more pertinent period of the current interglacial or Holocene. ocean. In fact. allowing only the mild millennial-scale climatic oscillation that alternately brings the earth slightly warmer and cooler conditions typical of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. it suggests that allowing more CO2 to accumulate in the atmosphere provides an “insurance policy” against abrupt climate change. however.” Specifically. describing glacial-period millennialscale episodes of dramatic warming called Dansgaard-Oeschger events (with temperature increases “of more than 10°C”). This latter real-world fact clearly suggests we are unlikely to experience any dramatic warming or cooling surprises in the near future. with temperatures 1°C warmer and 0.” which suggests we do not fully understand the dynamics of these rapid climate changes.000 years. Of this phenomenon.7°C cooler than at present. Their analysis indicated that temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (about 25. he notes that in the models “a slight increase in the freshwater flux above the modern level F produces a decrease in the NADW [North Atlantic Deep Water] convection and a moderate cooling in the North Atlantic. In another study of Greenland climate that included both glacial and interglacial periods. as long as the earth does not begin drifting towards glacial conditions.” which state has no deep convection and “is characterized by surface temperatures up to 6°C lower in and around the North Atlantic. (1998) used data from two ice sheet boreholes to reconstruct the temperature history of Greenland over the past 50. which are evident in sea surface temperature records derived from the study of North Atlantic deep-sea sediment cores. we next consider a number of papers that bear upon the reality of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: two wellknown multi-century periods of significant climatic aberration. since all dramatic warming and cooling events that have been detected to date have occurred in either full glacials or transitional periods between glacials and interglacials.1. as well as episodes of “drastic cooling” called Heinrich events (with temperature drops “of up to about 5°C”). Then. Bard states.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! 3.000 years. after which it drops back to the cold values that prevailed before the warm event. which are evident in Greenland ice core records.” which is a particularly important point.6. These periods of modest climatic aberration. plus the analogous warm and cool periods that preceded them (the Roman Warm Period and 115 . he notes that “an intense debate continues in the modeling community about the reality of such instabilities under warm conditions. according to Bard. respectively. the progression of these events is such that “the temperature warms abruptly to reach a maximum and then slowly decreases for a few centuries before reaching a threshold. Bard concentrates on the region of the North Atlantic. “all the studies so far carried out fail to answer the crucial question: How close are we to the next bifurcation [which could cause a rapid change-ofstate in earth’s climate system]?” In this regard. after the Little Ice Age.000 years ago.” The results of this study stand in stark contrast to the predictions of general circulation models of the atmosphere.

among which is the study of Wagner and Melles (2001). a tree-line coincidental concomitant increase in the air’s CO2 lake in the continental sector of northern Fenoscandia content that accompanied the Industrial Revolution. 1975) show the Medieval Warm Period (800 to 1200 A. and noting that as values during the Medieval Warm Period (ca. to derive We begin with the study of Keigwin and Boyle quantitative estimates of annual precipitation and July (2000).) records.” and that Greenland it was characterized by a cooling of “comparisons of a smoothed July temperature record approximately 1. that the Little Ice Age was a global event.P. Likewise.” Specifically. 0.000-year record that tells us much about that correlate with subtle !18O changes in the the region’s climatic history. they report there is “a clear onset was synchronous within a few years in both correlation between our MWP reconstruction and Greenland and Antarctica..” as they describe it. who briefly reviewed what is known about the mean temperature. citing borehole temperature data Jensen et al..” Last of all. Then. who from a stalagmite discovered in Crag Cave in retrieved a sediment core from a lake on an island southwestern Ireland.” Their 116 . Analyzing it for a number of properties GISP2 ice cores from Greenland.” indicative of the summer presence of significant Also evident in the Crag Cave data were the !18O numbers of seabirds during that “medieval warm signatures of the earlier Roman Warm Period and period.” they remark that in several records from Greenland ice cores. after which they compared this situated just off Liverpool Land on the east coast of record with the !18O records from the GRIP and Greenland. who used a recently warming of the Little Ice Age-to-Current Warm developed pollen-climate reconstruction model and a Period transition was likely totally independent of the new pollen stratigraphy from Toskaljavri. These data are broadly consistent with a Medieval Warm Period revealed high levels of the various parameters at ~1000 ± 200 years ago and a two-stage Little Ice measured by Wagner and Melles between about 1. and that its 1975). it is today. Stating that “mounting evidence indicates Age’ in the North Atlantic region (Dansgaard et al. as reconstructed by inverse modeling of and 700 years before present (BP) that were temperature profiles in the Greenland Ice Sheet. the data suggested another absence of variations in the records from both sides of the North birds during what they refer to as “a subsequent Little Atlantic “indicate that many of the subtle Ice Age.) to the strong similarity in timing of the MWP between the coldest part of the Little Ice Age (1350 to 1860 A. provide strong evidence for signals rather than local effects. which had been preceded Dark Ages Cold Period that comprised the prior such by a several-hundred-year period of little to no cycle of climate in that region. Greenland ice cores. (2001) derived a !18O record immediate environs are several other papers. which in turn suggests that the global of Seppa and Birks (2002).” the existence of a millennial-scale oscillation of Another study that looked at temperature climate that is unforced by changes in the air’s CO2 variations on both sides of the North Atlantic was that content. indicating regionally coherent Key to the study were certain biogeochemical variability in the early Holocene.. they note that “July temperature to have been approximately 2°C. (located just above 69°N latitude). they related to the past presence of seabirds there.D. 1400many as six thousand borehole records from all 1000 cal yr B.8°C higher than at continents of the world confirm that the earth was a present.D.” where present means the last six decades of significantly warmer place a thousand years ago than the twentieth century.” which they note was “the coldest period multicentury !18O variations in the Greenland ice since the early Holocene in East Greenland.100 Age. 1998) and the !18O record from the that reveal the magnitude of the temperature drop over Greenland from the peak warmth of the Crete ice core (Dansgaard et al. The two scientists say their millennial-scale oscillation of earth’s climate that is reconstructions “agree with the traditional concept of evident in a wealth of proxy climate data from around a ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (MWP) and ‘Little Ice the world. they found evidence for “centennial-scale !18O variations obtained a 10.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! cores reflect regional North Atlantic margin climate Dark Ages Cold Period).7°C. in an article titled from Toskaljavri with measured borehole “Was the Medieval Warm Period Global?” Broecker temperatures of the GRIP and Dye 3 ice cores (Dahl(2001) answers yes. after the Medieval reiterate the important fact that the coherent !18O Warm Period.) were ca.” They additionally data that reflected variations in seabird breeding report that the Crag Cave data “exhibit variations that colonies in the catchment area of the lake. In doing so. In concluding they inferred bird presence. Concentrating solely on Greenland and its McDermott et al.

As time progressed. the relative cold of the Little Ice Age took from them: the ability to survive on Greenland. appears to have prevailed throughout the last 3. it would appear that the window of climatic opportunity provided by the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period was indeed a major factor enabling seafaring Scandinavians to establish long-enduring settlements on the coast of Greenland.100 to 700 years BP than it was over the twentieth century. the second and more severe portion of the Little Ice Age occurred. Lassen et al. (2004). this one in southern Greenland. and after AD c. “the Norse society in Greenland was declining and reaching its final stage probably before the end of the fifteenth century. which was in turn followed by “naturally initiated post-Little Ice Age warming since AD 1850. Based on a highresolution record of the fjord’s subsurface water-mass properties derived from analyses of benthic foraminifera.000 years. which was crucial for Norse land use.300-900 years BP. and biogenic silica and organic matter concentrations. and after the period of Norse habitation of this and other parts of the ice-covered island’s coast. were able to colonize South Greenland at AD 985. which is recorded throughout the Arctic. during. except for the Medieval Warm Period. however. the glowing promise of the apex of Medieval warmth gave way to the debilitating reality of the depth of Little Ice Age cold.” They also mention.” Consequently. 1990) correspondingly show a significant temperature lowering at AD 1350-1400. including magnetic susceptibility.5°C rise in temperature. Jensen et al. indicated by an increase of organic matter in the lake sediment and confirmed by bird observations.” We can further explore these aspects of Greenland’s climatic history from three important papers that reconstructed environmental conditions in the vicinity of Igaliku Fjord. additionally note that “historical documents on Iceland report the presence of the Norse in South Greenland for the last time in AD 1408.” However.” Lassen et al.” but from 1. conclude that stratification of the water column. before. what the relative warmth of the Medieval Warm Period provided the Norse settlers. They discovered that “the interval from 6000 to 3000 cal yr BP was marked by warmth and stability. in their words. according to the Icelandic Sagas. 1995). there was a partial amelioration of climate (the Medieval Warm Period) that was associated with an approximate 1. the climate cooled “until its culmination during the Little Ice Age.200 years. Following another brief warming between AD 1500 and 1750. with Atlantic water masses in its lower reaches. During this period.” when. under Eric the Red. in terms of the overall stability of the environment for sustained plant and animal husbandry. in this regard. water content.” while we additionally note that Esper et al. (2002) independently identified the peak warmth of this period throughout North American extratropical latitudes as “occurring around 990.” They also report that “studies of a Canadian high-Arctic ice core and nearby geothermal data (Koerner and Fisher.” They report that Viking “colonization around the northwestern North Atlantic occurred during peak Medieval Warm Period conditions that ended in southern Greenland by AD 1100. however. Kaplan et al.” Thereafter.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! data also showed signs of a “resettlement of seabirds during the last 100 years. (2002) also worked with data obtained from a small lake..” but that “a regime of more extreme climatic fluctuations began soon after AD 1000. density. values of the most recent data were not as great as those obtained from the earlier Medieval Warm Period. beginning with the study of Lassen et al. and temperatures derived from two Greenland ice cores led to the same conclusion: it was warmer at various times between 1. report that the diatom record of Igaliku Fjord “yields evidence of a relatively moist and warm climate at the beginning of settlement. analyzing sediment physical-chemical properties. More details of the saga of five centuries of Nordic survival at the foot of the Greenland Ice Cap are provided by the trio of papers addressing the palaeohistory of Igaliku Fjord. which they describe as occurring between AD 885 and 1235.” during what they describe as a period of “unprecedented influx of (ice-loaded) East Greenland Current water masses into the innermost parts of Igaliku Fjord.” Hence. South Greenland. the outer part of Igaliku Fjord experienced enhanced vertical mixing (which they attribute to increased wind stress) that would have been expected to increase nutrient 117 . for example. that the arrival of the gritty Norsemen was “close to the peak of Medieval warming recorded in the GISP2 ice core which was dated at AD 975 (Stuiver et al.” noting that Norse movements around the region thereafter “occurred at perhaps the worst time in the last 10. owing to the mild Medieval Warm Period climate with favorable open-ocean conditions. (2004). who provide some historical background to their palaeoclimatic work by reporting that “the Norse. 1350 cooling became more severe.

describe it.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! the 500 years of Norse colonization. 1996). 1998). based on odds were truly stacked against the Nordic colonies.” al. Both the land-based air temperature and SST development.” Eastern Settlement were significant in the crucial In referring to what they call “this important period when the Norse disappeared. A similar conclusion was reached severe cooling-induced environmental deterioration by Roncaglia and Kuijpers (2004). 1995) and AD 990 (Esper et al. it is also clear that the between AD 960 and 1285. Jensen et al. nor of comparable terrestrial or supply of marine food for the Norse people. As Lassen et al. as well as the deteriorating growing conditions on land and concomitant sea surface temperature (SST) history of simultaneous reductions in oceanic productivity.” and that this availability there. 1996. forcing sailing on more southerly routes induced disintegration but actually fortified it against when going to Greenland (Seaver. but with no obvious lead/lag either way. with coastal southern Greenland.. plus evidence of the presence of Melonis peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period—which barleeanus during the Medieval Warm Period (the occurred between approximately AD 975 (Stuiver et distribution of which is mainly controlled by the al. report that “geomorphological studies in Northeast Hanna and Cappelen note that the “recent cooling Greenland have shown evidence of increased winter may have significantly added to the mass balance of wind speed. In light of these observations.” marine productivity.44°C in one case and by 0. 2002)—were presence of partly decomposed organic matter). based on data from eight Danish according to Lassen et al. 2001. “around AD 1450. it was determined that the cooling was also have had a dramatic influence on the local seal “significantly inversely correlated with an increased population and thus the feeding basis for the Norse phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over population. which curtailed Concentrating on the twentieth century.” The two researchers say this The end result of these several conjoined “NAO-temperature link doesn’t explain what caused phenomena. stratification of the water column.. In the thousand-plus subsequent fjord during this interval of unusual relative warmth years.. The coastal temperature data the climate further deteriorated with further showed a cooling of 1. in their words. Jensen et regional exception to recent ‘global warming’. sealed. either locally or hemispherically Shortly thereafter. as well). state that “life conditions certainly became harsher during 118 . (2003) notwithstanding..” Consequently. since this part of the ice sheet climatic deterioration coincides with reports of is the portion that would likely be the first to increased sea-ice conditions that caused difficulties in experience melting in a warming world. particularly in the period between AD at least the southern half of the [Greenland] Ice 1420 and 1580 (Christiansen.” which “could addition. Rayner et al. These linked events. the cooling that led to the (and likely globally. led to an even greater series followed similar patterns and were strongly “increase of the ice season and a decrease of primary correlated. In production and marine food supply. it would using the old sailing routes from Iceland westbound appear that whatever caused the cooling has not only and further southward along the east coast of protected the Greenland Ice Sheet against warmingGreenland. conclude that surface productivity in the colonize the region.” that possibility. was that the observed cooling in coastal southern Greenland “climatic and hydrographic changes in the area of the but it does lend it credibility. 1995. Hence. “contributed to the loss of Meteorological Institute stations in coastal and nearthe Norse settlement in Greenland...” This other.” the past few decades. based on these more favorable living conditions associated with the findings. Hanna nutrient upwelling and reduced the high level of and Cappelen (2003) determined the air temperature marine productivity that had prevailed throughout the history of coastal southern Greenland from 1958Medieval Warm Period.. there has never been a sustained period of was “high and thus could have provided a good comparable warmth.” Indeed. 1996).” noting that “this Sheet. increasing stratification of the water-column while two of the three SST databases also depicted associated with stronger advection of (ice-loaded) cooling: by 0.80°C in the East Greenland Current water masses.” At the same time. three previously published and subsequently extended and it was only a matter of time before their fate was SST datasets (Parker et al. what originally enabled the Norse to successfully Lassen et al. who found “may very likely have hastened the disappearance of evidence of increased bottom-water ventilation the culture. the strident Little Ice Age was accompanied by a gradual reprotestations of Mann et al. in the words of Lassen et al. the the Labrador Sea off southwest Greenland. Kalnay et al.” Also.29°C over the period of study.

2°C per decade since the beginning of the measurements in 1987.” What is more. “is also seen in the 18 O/16O record of the Summit ice core (Steig et al. when the average annual temperatures decreased by approximately 1.” Coincident with this cooling trend there was also what they describe as “a remarkable increase in the number of snowfall days (+59 days). as it emerged. as with the Arctic as a whole. both the annual mean and the average temperature of the three summer months (June. In fact. when it was perhaps 2.5°C warmer than it is now. working with the two stations with the longest records (both over a ! century in length). Between 1920 and 1930. Stuiver et al. In the words of Chylek et al. These many studies of the temperature history of Greenland depict long-term oscillatory cooling ever since the Climatic Optimum of the mid-Holocene. and perhaps in other regions of the Arctic.” Furthermore.. it would appear that Greenland has not experienced any net warming over the most dramatic period of atmospheric CO2 increase on record. which are most relevant to Greenland ice sheet melting rates.000 square kilometers) plus surface air temperature data from adjacent Jan Mayen Island. 2003).5 to 0.” And this warming. along with the rest of the world. Greenland was warming. and the Little Ice Age. they report that “not only did the cooling affect the winter months. as suggested by Hannna and Cappelen (2002). however. Comiso et al. Przybylak (2000) found that “the level of temperature in Greenland in the last 10-20 years is similar to that observed in the 19th century. Chylek et al. but also the summer mean.” In a study of three coastal stations in southern and central Greenland that possess almost uninterrupted temperature records between 1950 and 2000.” noting that “the summer cooling is rather important information for glaciological studies. 1994.” In commenting on this dramatic temperature rise.” due to the warmer temperatures that were prevalent at that time. (2001) determined that the ice phenomenon was “a relatively smaller feature several decades ago.7°C cooler than now. the Greenland warming of the 1920s demonstrates that a large and rapid temperature increase can occur over Greenland. (2004) examined the temperature history of the Nuuk fjord during the last century. there is no substance to the claim that Greenland provides evidence for an impending CO2induced warming. At the start of the twentieth century.5°C. In addition. the temperature data “show that a warming trend occurred in the Nuuk fjord during the first 50 years of the 1900s.” Clearly.” Likewise. (2004) discovered that “summer temperatures. they report that observational evidence from Jan Mayen Island indicates temperatures there cooled at a rate of 0. White et al. when the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration rose by a mere 3 to 4 ppm.” Chylek et al. when it was 0. Based on mean monthly temperatures of 37 Arctic and seven sub-Arctic stations. in a study that utilized satellite imagery of the Odden ice tongue (a winter ice cover that occurs in the Greenland Sea with a length of about 1. as well as temperature anomalies of 30 grid-boxes from the updated dataset of Jones.” These facts led them to speculate that “the NAO may play a crucial role in determining local Greenland climate during the 21st century. there was a phenomenal warming at all five coastal locations for which contemporary temperature records are available. where their analyses of all pertinent regional data led them to conclude that “at all stations in the Nuuk fjord.300 km and an aerial coverage of as much as 330. due to the ablation-temperature relations. 1997). Taurisano et al.” As they describe it.. due to internal climate variability such as the NAM/NAO [Northern Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation].Observations:!Temperature!Records! Several other studies have also reported latetwentieth century cooling on Greenland. for example. as they note. which they call the “great Greenland warming of the 1920s. and that the subsequent decrease in temperature was so substantial and sustained that current coastal temperatures “are about 1°C below their 1940 values.. it has cooled during this period. 1995. conclude that “since there was no significant increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration during that time. followed by a cooling over the second part of the century. they determined that coastal Greenland’s peak temperatures occurred between 1930 and 1940. when it was about 1°C warmer than it is currently. from the depths of the Little Ice Age.. Hanna and Cappelen.15 ± 0. “average annual temperature rose between 2 and 4°C [and by as much as 6°C in the winter] in less than ten years. July and August) exhibit a pattern in agreement with the trends observed at other stations in south and west Greenland (Humlum 1999.03°C per decade during the past 75 years. without a significant anthropogenic influence.” In fact. within which cooling trend is included the Medieval Warm Period. do not show any persistent increase during the last fifty years. resulting in a local climate that may defy the global climate change.” Hence. 119 . they note that “at the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.

Science 282: 268-271. Kuijpers.1029/2002GL015797. Chylek.J..2 of the global sea-ice and sea surface temperature data set. H. Box. E.. Was the Medieval Warm Period global? Science 291: 1497-1499.. Dahl-Jensen. Nature 399: 429-436. Bracknell.H. Ropelewski. and Jackson. Barkov. Reynolds. J. Jensen.H... Jouzel. M.M. Recent climate of Southern Greenland. Cook. J. W.... 1999. M.. Koc. Climate Research Technical Note 74. McDermott.R.P.. Antarctica. J.co2science. Higgins. Lorius.I.K. M. K. Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem !18O record from SW Ireland. M.. Crowley. and Hawkesworth. and Boyle. Kotlyakov.U. American Geophysical Union 84: 256-257. T. Nature 255: 24-28. M. Weather 57: 320-328.000 years from the Vostok ice core. On past temperatures and anomalous late-20th century warmth. V. including Leetmaa. O. Kunzendorf. J.. and Miller. and Cappelen. can be found at http://www. 2000.. G. C. Janowiak. Late-Holocene climate in central West Greenland: meteorological data and rock-glacier isotope evidence. South Greenland. Wolfe.. R. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420. and Konradi.. reviews of newer publications as they become The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Folland. Delmotte. Hanna. Physics Today 55(12): 32-38. E. T. and Fisher. and Gersten. and Lesins. 1903-1994.. Version 2..S.. Bradley. Mikkelsen.M.C. Collins.B. 2002. J. V.. Bulletin of available. M. thereafter. L. P.. after which temperatures rebounded to a new Deaven. HoffmannWieck. subject/g/greenland. E. Lassen. Wadhams. S..... 120 . G. Overpeck... Quaternary Research 58: 149-159.. E. Science 294: 1328-1331. Mann. A. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Odden ice tongue and a study of environmental effects.A. C. 2002... Koerner. and Stievenard.. Saltzman. M. Esper. Wang.. J.. Davis. and Cappelen. H. Diatom evidence of hydrographic changes and ice conditions in Igaliku Fjord.. W. 2004. S. and Wigley..A. Rayner. Bender.P. G. E.E. International Journal of Climatology 20: 587-614. LateHolocene Atlantic bottom-water variability in Igaliku Fjord.. Pepin.. Johnsen. The Holocene 8: 719-728. Delaygue. Kanamitsu. Marine surface temperature: Observed variations and data requirements.. 1999. Briffa. Additional information on this topic. D. Jenne. W. R. U.J. D. Trenberth. R. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 97: 1343-1346.G. M. C. S. 2002. The Holocene 9: 581-594. J..K. Raynaud... The Holocene 14: 165-171. Nature 343: 630-631.. A. Iredell..org/ the American Meteorological Society 77: 437-471. M. Horton. Ebisuzaki..K.. Broecker. Saha. Temporal and spatial variation of surface air temperature over the period of instrumental observations in the Arctic.E. 2000. 2001.D. C. Kaplan. Folland.-M.A. Humlum. L. R.. N. Petit. E. and Hammer. Chappellaz. only to fall steadily Woollen. Chelliah. 2002. Lipenkov.H. Zhu. R. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Oppenheimer. L.. J.php. R.. K. H. Detecting Holocene changes in thermohaline circulation. C. A record of Holocene summer climate from a Canadian high-Arctic ice core. Hansen.. Comiso. ‘Little Ice Age’ navigation activity in northeast Greenland. N. M. P. Meteorological Office. 1995. Science 295: 2250-2253.. 1996. S. M. D. Przybylak. 1998. and Heinemeier. P. J. Climate shock: Abrupt changes over millennial time scales. Gundestrup. J. K. maximum in the 1930s...C.. 1990. L.T. Mattey. Norsemen and modern man. Kistler. G. White. and Joseph. Hughes. M. Jones. South Greenland.. Ritz. Parker. Legrand. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 9093-9116. K. Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. M. Y. The Holocene 14: 152-164. Clausen. UK. during the past 1500 years. 2004.. 2004. N. Christiansen.. Basile. A. E. I. and Schweingruber. Parker.R. W. Hadley Centre. Climatic Change 63: 201-221. F. D. 1975.... Past temperatures directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet. S. W. Barnola. 2003. Kuijpers. D. Berkshire.B. 1998. Climatic Change 31: 559-600. 1996. D.. K.. 2001. J. R... C.. J. E. Clow. N. EOS: Transactions.. N.E. A. Gundestrup. 2001. D. P.B. Recent cooling in coastal southern Greenland and relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation.. N... G. and Balling. Mosegaard.R.D. References Bard. G. T.... Osborn. N. F. Amman. C. J. Mo. R... Rutherford. A. Hanna.Y. C. reconstructed from foraminifera faunas. and Hackett. D. Pedersen. Climatic changes. Gandin. 2003. Dansgaard. J. Keigwin.J.W. Global warming and the Greenland ice sheet.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Kalnay. Holocene environmental variability in southern Greenland inferred from lake sediments. Johnsen.A.

Stanford University Press. in response to climatic and oceanic changes.425-26. followed by the Medieval Warm Period from about AD 850 to 1150. P. H. Their graph of these data reveals that temperatures in this region exhibited a 121 . M. the cooling of the Little Ice Age from AD 1200 though 1800.E. This work revealed that fluctuations in average annual temperature derived from the Siberian record agreed well with air temperature variations reconstructed from the Greenland data. Quaternary Research 57: 191-199. H.2. 1996.B. Grootes. a warm period from AD 200 to 600. H.F. On the basis of these observations. (1997) combined paleoclimatic records obtained from lake and marine sediments.J. P. Steig. Why? Because over the first 115 years of warming. Seppa. 1994. The climate signal in the stable isotopes of snow from Summit. the rate-of-rise of surface air temperature decelerated.M..24 ppm/year. A century of climate variability and climate gradients from coast to ice sheet in West Greenland. C. USA.J. followed by the recovery warming of the twentieth century. Boreas 30: 228239. 3.K. Stuiver.J.. B. 1995. from 1955 to the end of the record (about 1990). when temperatures averaged 3. M. and volcanoes. and Clausen. From this record they determined that the most dramatic warming of the last four centuries of the past millennium (1. Then.A. A Holocene seabird record from Raffles So sediments. Barlow. as well as a similar history covering the period of the Holocene Climatic Optimum (3300 to 2600 BC). which apply to the entire Arctic.17 ppm/year (nearly five times the rate at which it had risen in the prior period).200-year temperature history using tree-ring data obtained from 118 trees near the upper-timberline in Siberia for the period 212 BC to AD 1996. South Greenland.M.C.” and that “the warming at the border of the first and second millennia [AD 1000] was longer in time and similar in amplitude. Holocene climate reconstructions from the Fennoscandian tree-line area based on pollen data from Toskaljavri. CA. The GISP2 !18O climate record of the past 16.. as the air’s CO2 concentration rose by an average of 0. Stuiver. L. and Stuiver.. suggesting to the two researchers that “the tree ring chronology of [the Siberian] region can be used to analyze both regional peculiarities and global temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere.B. Palynofacies analysis and organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts in late-Holocene sediments from Igaliku Fjord. Science 266: 1885-1886. and Kuijpers A. Wagner. Taurisano. M. They compared their results with those obtained from an analysis of isotopic oxygen data extracted from a Greenland ice core.. the mean circum-Arctic air temperature declined by 0.3°C more than they did over the past two millennia. Greenland: Results of comparisons with modern climate observations. D. Rest of Arctic Overpeck et al. however. M. T. 1000-1500. J.5°C) occurred between 1840 and 1955. over which period the air’s CO2 concentration rose from approximately 285 ppm to 313 ppm. The Frozen Echo: Greenland and the Exploration of North America AD c. to a mean value (0. while the air’s CO2 concentration rose from 313 ppm to 354 ppm. and Birks. their reconstructed temperatures for the Holocene Climatic Optimum revealed there was an even warmer period about 5..Observations:!Temperature!Records! Roncaglia. Stanford. J. H. Fisher. reporting temperature variations for the Asian subarctic region over the past 600 years.011°C/year) that was nearly the same as the rate at which it had previously risen. or by 41 ppm. A. the two scientists say it was “not extraordinary. Boggild.500 years and the role of the sun. Naurzbaev and Vaganov (2000) developed a 2. Grootes. East Greenland. and glaciers to develop a 400-year history of circum-Arctic surface air temperature. 1997. 2001.013°C/year. Jouzel. Johnsen. Journal of Geophysical Research 102: 26. L. over the final 35 years of the record.G. P. when the air’s CO2 content rose at a mean rate of 1. it is not possible to assess the influence of ! atmospheric CO2 on surface air temperature or even to conclude it has any effect at all. Quaternary Research 44: 341-354. 2004. and Melles. trees.. Contemporaneously. (2000) also used tree-ring width as a temperature proxy. White. E. Grootes.” In addition. or by 28 ppm.000 years ago. cooling again from 600 to 800 AD. The Holocene 14: 172-184. Geografiska Annaler 86A: 217-224.” Naurzbaev and Vaganov reported that several warm and cool periods prevailed for several multicentury periods throughout the last two millennia: a cool period in the first two centuries AD.. 2002. In regard to this latter temperature rise.1.W. 2004. and Karlsen.439. Vaganov et al.4°C..M. air temperature rose by an average of 0. Seasonal precipitation timing and ice core records.6. K. S. and Braziunas. ocean. Seaver.

that in this region Oscillation. r = -0. 1.59 for volcanic activity).1°C observed at the record and signaling the onset of the Little Ice Age on meteorological station in Salluit.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! once more throughout the 1950s and 1960s. northern Quebéc (approx. Canada (~66.32 for solar were found to be “relatively common occurrences. providing in the process a lasted until about 1950.” which over the entire 600-year period (r = 0. real-world data commentators wrongly point to as evidence of CO2show an actual cooling trend since around 1940. about 1820 and 1940—much of it correlates with About the same time. however. Then. they determined that “much of the prereconstructed natural temperature fluctuations in the instrumental record in the Pacific Northwest region of Holocene subarctic zone. they report finding a significant surface temperature] in the North Pacific. temperatures rose quantitative assessment of the effects of temperature 122 . suggesting this climatic interval exhibited climatic transitions in over a millennium. from about 2°C from AD 1195-1220. At the modern In another study from the same year. from AD 1030 were as high as 4°C around AD 1000 and 1100. which was followed by a return to cold decade in the record. a cooling event that brought temperatures back to levels Russian island located between the Barents and Kara characteristic of the Little Ice Age. where climate models predict large responsible for the vast majority of the past halfincreases in temperature as a result of the historical century’s warming in Alaska. Working near Island.75°W). Kasper and Allard (2001) changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activity. Baffin periods and deform and crack the soil).240-year record of mean summer temperature for they found evidence of ice wedge activity prior to AD this region that averaged 2. as it is generally called. during which time more than 90 period of extended warmth that lasted until an abrupt percent of the ice wedges studied reactivated and cooling event occurred around AD 1375. Baffin Island. which They concluded that “regime shifts in the North correlation improved over the shorter interval (1800Pacific have occurred 11 times since 1650. Thereafter. this activity decreased. when the Little Ice Lake witnessed what they called “one of the largest Age ruled. widespread and abundant form of ground ice in One year later.25°N. (2001) analyzed permafrost regions that can grow during colder sediment cores extracted from Donard Lake. Moore et al. small positive trend from the beginning of the record whereupon they trended downwards toward cooler until about AD 1750. Within this period there were several 140 and 1030.” radiation.” And in attempting to North America [was] characterized by alternating determine the cause or causes of the temperature regimes of relatively warmer and cooler SST [sea fluctuations. a warmer period prevailed. r = -0.9°C over the period AD 140. followed by a dramatic glacier terminus positions on north Novaya Zemlya. after which six tree ring-width chronologies from stands of temperatures fell once again.” A 1990) of the industrial period (r = 0. in this regard. Over the period of their study (AD 1599warming “does not go beyond the limits of 1983). Between AD 750-1990. followed by a 130-year warming trend Gedalof and Smith (2001) compiled a transect of from about 1820 through 1950.000 years.68 for solar significant aspect of these findings is the fact that the radiation.” as the coldest conditions of the past 4. is what was of the world. two examined soil deformations caused by ice wedges (a factors that are free of anthropogenic influence. determined that the amplitude of twentieth century Alaska. to produce a Salluit. while to 1500. punctuated correlation with solar radiation and volcanic activity by abrupt shifts in the mean background state. 62°N. reflecting cold climatic conditions. “average summer temperatures rose rapidly by nearly Thereafter. conditions during the last five decades of the This latter temperature rise was then followed by a twentieth century. which some rise in the air’s CO2 concentration. Thereafter. which lasted 400 years.41 for volcanic activity). 75. 62°W). anomalously warm decades with temperatures that reflective of warmer conditions. mountain hemlock growing near the treeline that In analyzing the entire record. resulting in grew by 20-30 cm. the researchers extends from southern Oregon to the Kenai Peninsula. ending in the warmest 1900 to 1946. It is also abrupt 1976-77 shift in this Pacific Decadal enlightening to note. and from 1500 to 1900 ice at the beginning of the thirteenth century Donard wedge activity was at its peak. Where warming does exist in the record—between induced global warming. which chilliness Seas in the Arctic Ocean. a severe cooling conditions to the end of the record in 1990.” with temperatures near 4. a gradual warming trend occurred Forman (2001) analyzed twentieth century changes in over the period 1800-1900. trend ensued. in harmony with a reported the following decade being one of the coldest in the temperature decline of 1. conditions cooled.5°C. Zeeberg and end of the record.

in Zeeberg and Forman’s words. tenth to twelfth [Medieval Warm Period] and during the twentieth [Current Warm Period] centuries. as well as most of its other parts. They found they could “identify periods when Arctic trends were actually smaller or of different sign [our italics] than Northern Hemisphere trends. are “counter to warming of the Eurasian Arctic predicted for the twenty-first century by climate models. lying between 70°30’ and 72°28’ North latitude.8°C colder than they were over the prior 40-year period.” but they did “not support amplified warming in polar regions predicted by GCMs. However. Such observations. they identified “strong intrinsic variability. Briffa et al. The Odden ice tongue was found to vary in size. 1996). Schweingruber and Briffa. In the four decades since 1961.” With respect to the second of these three periods. but by 1952. the region’s glaciers had experienced between 75 to 100 percent of their net twentieth century retreat. for example. They used surface air temperature data from Jan Mayen Island.5°C colder than they were over the prior 40 years. particularly for the winter season.427-year proxy temperature history for the part of the Taimyr Peninsula. 1998. located within the region of study. (1998.” the temperature histories of the two regions were “similar. maximum area.” Their data also reveal three other important pieces of information: (1) the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods were both warmer than the Current Warm Period has been to date.. (2000) utilized satellite imagery to analyze and quantify a number of attributes of the Odden ice.” In a concomitant study. trend analyses revealed that the ice tongue had exhibited no statistically significant change in any of the parameters studied over the short 20-year period.” due to the significantly warmer temperatures that prevailed at that time. and length of occurrence during the 20-year period. Throughout the 125-year history they developed. Quantitatively. displaying a fair amount of interannual variability. noting that it has been shown that “the main driver of tree-ring variability at the polar timber-line [where they worked] is temperature (Vaganov et al. and maximum extent over the period 1979-1998. weather stations at Novaya Zemlya show summer temperatures to have been 0.3° to 0. All of these observations are at odds with what is portrayed in the Northern Hemispheric “hockey stick” temperature history of Mann et al.3° to 2. when they say “multi-decadal variability had little net effect on computed trends. dominated by multi-decadal fluctuations with a timescale of 60-80 years”. northern Russia.15 ± 0. 1996. virtually unchanged in the mean during the past 20 years. the recession of more than half of the glaciers stopped.. over the past seven decades. to infer the behavior of the phenomenon over the past 75 years. (2) the beginning of the end of the Little Ice Age was somewhere in the vicinity of 1830. along with the observational evidence from Jan Mayen Island that temperatures there actually cooled at a rate of 0. they found temperature trends in the Arctic to be highly dependent on the particular time period selected for analysis. These glacial stabilizations and advances were attributed by the two scientists to observed increases in precipitation and/or decreases in temperature. (2002b) used newly available long-term Russian observations of surface air temperature from coastal stations to gain new insights into trends and variability in the Arctic environment poleward of 62°N. they emphasize that “the warmth of the two centuries AD 1058-1157 and 9501049 attests to the reality of relative mediaeval warmth in this region. and many tidewater glaciers actually began to advance.” This work revealed that “the warmest periods over the last two millennia in this region were clearly in the third [Roman Warm Period]. a proxy reconstruction of the Odden ice tongue for the past 75 years revealed the ice phenomenon to have been “a relatively smaller feature several decades ago. (2002) developed a 2.Observations:!Temperature!Records! ! and precipitation on glacial mass balance. is in direct contrast with predictions of rapid and increasing warmth in earth’s polar regions as a result of CO2-induced global warming.03°C per decade during the past 75 years. The fact that the Odden ice tongue has persisted. wherein (1) the Current 123 . including its average concentration.” Comiso et al. based on a study of ring-widths of living and preserved larch trees. This work revealed a significant and accelerated post-Little Ice Age glacial retreat in the first and second decades of the twentieth century. shape. Polyakov et al. Naurzbaev et al. 1999) and its thousand-year global extension developed by Mann and Jones (2003). while winter temperatures were 2. During the next 50 years. bolsters the view that there has been little to no warming in this part of the Arctic.” Over the bulk of the twentieth century. This observation. and (3) the Current Warm Period peaked somewhere in the vicinity of 1940.

7°C in just 20 years to reach a peak in 1937 Warm Period is depicted as the warmest such era of that was not eclipsed over the remainder of the the past two millennia. however. the surface air temperature temperature range for the entire Arctic—as delineated of the region poleward of 62°N experienced no net by Treshnikov (1985)—for the period 1951-1990. its final value was Isaksson et al. (2004) reviewed several prior majority of the climatic regions in the Arctic. the region’s (Przybylak. than it did throughout the 20-year period of dramatic minimum. based on measurements carried out at al. (2003) retrieved two ice cores (one still less than the mean value of the entire 1400s and from Lomonosovfonna and one from Austfonna) far portions of the 1500s. (2) recovery from the Little record. and (3) the temperature.” This analyses of maximum latewood density data obtained work indicated that trends in both the intraseasonal from a widespread network of tree-ring chronologies and interannual variability of the temperatures studied that spanned three to six centuries and were derived did not show any significant changes. over the next six decades. when the air’s CO2 concentration rose by Przybylak (2002) conducted a detailed analysis of approximately 55 ppm.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! climbed 1. Thereafter. above the Arctic Circle in Svalbard. but then it 124 . no tangible manifestations of the recover somewhat over the last two decades of the greenhouse effect can be identified. latitude. after Averaged across all land area poleward of 50°N which the 12 cooperating scientists from Norway. But then. and the and instrumental temperatures subsequent to 1960. leading from nearly 400 locations. proves that. Polyakov et al. there was a large divergence of reconstructed Finland. proved centered on approximately 1930. warming and. or nearly seven times more intraseasonal and interannual variability in maximum. Briffa et al. The three Svalbard.S. in the Arctic in temperature dropped dramatically.5°C difference expected—in light of the earth’s transition from the between them. there was no net prevented them “from claiming unprecedented warming over the last seven decades of the twentieth hemispheric warming during recent decades on the century in the parts of Norway cited in this study. while the “equivocal. may have cooled. the authors remark that. During this 20-year period of rapidly rising air Ice Age does not begin until after 1910. Japan. were surface air temperature history that stretched from struggling with this perplexing problem. As would be record there was an approximate 1. as well as trends in average seasonal and the warmest period of the past six centuries occurred annual values of temperature investigated earlier in the 1930s and early 1940s. and Russian measurements that were initiated in the late scientists found the surface air temperature of the nineteenth century.” In the same year. after which they compared the huge northern region rose hardly at all. in fact. attempted to relate this Little Ice Age to the Current Warm Period—the large temperature differential to a hypothesized international group of scientists reported that “the decrease in tree growth that was caused by a !18O data from both Lomonosovfonna and Austfonna hypothesized increase in ultraviolet radiation that they ice cores suggest that the twentieth century was the hypothesized to have been caused by declining warmest during at least the past 600 years. Netherlands used !18O data to reconstruct a 600-year with measured temperatures rising and reconstructed temperatures falling. Sweden. From 1875 to Arctic Ocean using high-latitude hydrographic about 1917. stratospheric ozone concentrations over this period.” However. Polyakov et 1875 to 2000. 2000). such that by the end of the temperature history of the region. In addition. the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration rose Current Warm Period experiences it highest temperatures in the latter part of the twentieth by a mere 8 ppm. the 1930s were the warmest decade in the researchers wrote that these unsettled questions Trondheim record. For the land area of the Przybylak to conclude that “this aspect of climate globe poleward of 20°N latitude. although it did the period 1951-90. century’s final decade. “as on cause of the disconcerting data divergence. the team of eight U. Canada.” Consequently. Norway. they too found that change.” as they themselves described it. (2004) were developing a long-term history of 75 land stations and a number of drifting buoys Atlantic Core Water Temperature (ACWT) in the located poleward of 62°N latitude. Nevertheless. Estonia.” twentieth century. based on data from 10 stations “representing the Briffa et al. and average air temperature and diurnal air warming that preceded it. leaving instrumental temperature record at Longyearbyen also room for a growing urban heat island effect in the shows the decade of the 1930s to have been the instrumental temperature record to be the principal warmest. basis of these tree-ring density data. the warmest decade of the twentieth century was The results of their effort. 1997. (2003) derived a About the same time that Briffa et al.

. 2004). all of which demonstrate that the Little Ice Age-to-Current Warm Period transition began somewhere in the neighborhood of 1820 to 1850. The latter of these findings (that there has been no net warming of this expansive high-latitude region over the last half of the twentieth century) is in harmony with the findings of the many studies reviewed above. with the peak temperature of the latter warm period slightly exceeding the peak temperature of the former warm period.” which were found to “correlate well with the corresponding solar activity cycles. (2004) set the stage for what they did by stating that “thawing of the permafrost which underlies a substantial fraction of the Arctic could accelerate carbon losses from soils (Goulden et 125 .” In addition. Yoo and D’Odorico. With respect to this dual goal. both records indicate that late twentieth century warmth was basically no different from that experienced in the late 1930s and early 1940s..” which included nearly all of northern Eurasia that borders the Arctic Ocean. when very cold conditions were indicated by several proxies. Benner et al. Moore et al. 1999) “hockey stick” temperature history. (2004) documented climatic changes over the past 1. like Arctic SATs.. (2003). for the period 14581975 in the longitude range from 30°E to 170°E. In the case of the ACWT record. it shows that the rising temperature peaked just prior to 1950 and then declined to the end of the record in 1975. from the Kola Peninsula to Chukotka. Their ACWT record.” and that “there is no clear indication of warming of water masses in the area during the last decades. In discussing their findings. including the Medieval Warm Period. this relationship was reversed. (years) BP. 2002. the temperature once again declined to the end of the record in 2000.’s presentation of the mean annual tree-ring series for the northern Eurasia timberline clearly shows that the region’s thermal recovery from the coldest temperatures of the Little Ice Age (LIA) may be considered to have commenced as early as 1820 and was in full swing by at least 1840. to quote them. was what they learned about the temporal development of the Current Warm Period (CWP). BP.. Raspopov et al.. however. while the second was ! an “annual tree-ring series generalized for 10 regions (Lovelius. The researchers’ primary objectives in this work were to identify any temporal cycles that might be present in the two datasets and to determine what caused them. a time when the air’s CO2 concentration was fully 65 ppm less than it is today.” Thereafter. the Little Ice Age. (1998. These efforts resulted in their learning that “the time period between 1200 and around 7-800 cal.Observations:!Temperature!Records! results of this exercise with the long-term history of Arctic Surface Air Temperature (SAT) developed by Polyakov et al. Raspopov et al. But the most recent temperature peak was very short-lived..200 years via high-resolution multi-proxy studies of benthic and planktonic foraminiferal assemblages. they report discovering “climatic cycles with periods of around 90. while the former finding (that the thermal recovery of this climatically sensitive region of the planet began in the first half of the nineteenth century) is also supported by a number of other studies (Esper et al.” even in sea surface temperatures measured over the period 1948-2002. 2002. Jomelli and Pech. however.” They also found that “minimum seasurface temperatures were reached at around 350 cal. Thereafter. 2002. say that. one at the beginning of the record (until the 1920s) and another in the 1960s-70s.” after which “a general temperature decrease in the area marks the transition to . The first was “a direct and systematic air temperature record for the Kola Peninsula. 1997) along the northern timberline. stable isotopes. Gonzalez-Rouco et al. Polyakov et al. in their words. but arrives at it by very different means. In addition. however. 22-23 and 11-12 years. One further study from 2004 yields much the same conclusion. in the vicinity of Murmansk. and it rapidly declined to hover around a value that was approximately 1°C cooler over the last few years of the record. and icerafted debris found in three sediment cores retrieved from the North Icelandic shelf. Arctic ACWTs are dominated.. well before the date (~1910) that is indicated in the Mann et al. Knudsen et al. revealed the existence of “two distinct warm periods from the late 1920s to 1950s and in the late 1980s-90s and two cold periods. the KolaMurmansk instrumental record indicates a significant temperature rise that peaked in the early 1990s at about the same level as the pre-1950 peak.” The SAT record depicted essentially the same thing. (2004) presented and analyzed two temperature-related datasets.” Of even more interest.” which covered the period 1880-2000. was characterized by relatively high bottom and surface water temperatures. but after that time. is not registered in the proxy data. they report that “a modern warming of surface waters . with the peak temperature of the latter warm period being not quite as high as the peak temperature of the former warm period. “by multidecadal fluctuations with a time scale of 50-80 years. 2003.

2002). 1100 years. Humlum et al. only to be trends in ice concentrations and extent. Heide-Jorgensen. 2003). the In reviewing what was already known about the Ikpikpuk and Kokolik. both of which transitions were totally comparable increases detected back to 1953 out of line with what climate models suggest should (Parkinson et al. Parkinson and Cavalieri.. they sampled two of the largest latitude glaciers. 2000. followed to increase. the Yenisey and Ob’ (which drain the Archipelago of Svalbard. their Laidre and Heide-Jorgensen (2005) published a own work revealed that it had “increased in length most unusual paper. Using a combination of long-term during the last c.” However. sea terrigenous organic carbon to the ocean. focusing on Spitsbergen vast areas of boreal forest and extensive peat bogs. which do not support the modeled polar rivers to see if there were any indications of amplification of surface air-temperature changes increasing amounts of older carbon being transported observed by surface stations at lower latitudes.” In addition. with decades later.” They proceeded to do just that for Eurasian rivers. whose watersheds are region.b) had “presented from centuries to millennia (Schell.” Then. have occurred. the current location of the 2000a. Stern and terminus of the Longyearbreen glacier suggests that. 1999.” trends. “is greenhouse gases. with average radiocarbon ages ranging also said Polyakov et al. snow. climate change in Greenland has cooled. 2002). Parkinson..” And since ice and permafrost. in their words. (2005) noted that state-of-the-art al. dynamics and their respective impacts on highSpecifically. they report that “from average radiocarbon age of the DOC of Arctic rivers 1957 to 1968.b. in that it dealt with the danger of from about 3 km to its present size of about 5 km oceanic cooling... MAAT dropped about 4°C. (the Archipelago’s main island) and the accounting for about a third of all riverine DOC Longyearbreen glacier located in its relatively dry discharge to the Arctic Ocean). Deser et al.” which they describe as a long spear-like tusk—in Baffin Bay between “development towards cooler conditions in the Greenland and Canada.5 followed by a nearly equivalent temperature drop four percent per decade between 1979 and 1996. which indicates. the absence of aging implied by their by a more gradual increase towards the end of the findings provides strong evidence for the absence of twentieth century. in their words. 2002. home to the largest narwhal Arctic” that “may explain why the Little Ice Age population in the world. to evaluate climate indicative of enhanced regional warming.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Humlum et al. updated observational trends and variations in Arctic Schirrmeister et al. 1998).” recent large-scale warming there. which (if there were) would be “there is reason.” 126 . (2002a.” with the result that “Baffin Bay more rapidly in the early 1920s than has been and Davis Strait display strong significant increasing documented anywhere else before or since.” documented anywhere in the world during the Thus.” which change. 2003). 1983.. as high as 7. that Arctic 9. as well as two much central region at 78°13’N latitude.5°C to -4. therefore. amplified in the polar regions as a result of feedbacks potentially resulting in greater riverine export of in which variations in the extent of glaciers. the climate in West As for what it all means. climate data. in their words. They found “since 1970. they typically old. play key roles. and remotely “this example of late-Holocene glacier growth sensed sea ice concentrations to detect localized represents a widespread phenomenon in Svalbard and habitat trends of narwhals—a species of whale with a in adjoining Arctic regions.” and they stated that satellite tracking data. riverine DOC “is derived primarily from recently “represents the most pronounced increase in MAAT fixed plant litter and near-surface soil horizons. reflected in both Svalbard over the twentieth century appears to have oceanographic and biological conditions (Hanna and been a real rollercoaster ride. with temperatures rising Cappelen. report that “a marked warming dominated by Arctic tundra.0°C. They studied the species’ glacier advance in Svalbard usually represents the vulnerability to recent and possible future climate Holocene maximum glacier extension. they report that “freshwater climate models were predicting that “the effect of any discharge to the Arctic Ocean is expected to increase present and future global climatic change will be with increasing temperatures (Peterson et al. smaller rivers on the north slope of Alaska. In doing so. as well as atmospheric the organic carbon in Arctic soils. they found around 1920 changed the mean annual air temperature modern radiocarbon ages for all samples taken from (MAAT) at sea level within only 5 years from about all rivers. because warming should have caused the instrumental period. With respect to the Longyearbreen glacier.” and to the ocean. In addition.” they set about to measure climate and sea-ice cover during the twentieth the age of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic century.

” Thereafter. Bradwell et al. after which their results were correlated.” Hansen et al. Drinkwater (2006) decided “to provide a review of the changes to the marine 127 . updated by Hoyt in 2005) over the period 1875-2000.Observations:!Temperature!Records! even now.” This exercise led them to conclude that the climate changes of the past decade were “dramatic. Based on these findings. generally cold conditions during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.” In Iceland. The results of Soon’s analyses indicated a much stronger statistical relationship exists between SAT and TSI than between SAT and atmospheric CO2 concentration. and at a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations are higher than they have been for millions of years.4°C per year and 50% decrease in sea ice cover. Fjallsjokull. multi-decadal.” including Skaftafellsjokull.” Contemporaneously. and longerterm variations in surface air temperature (SAT). In one final paper from 2005. (2006) developed a 119-year history of Icelandic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) based on measurements made at 10 coastal stations located between latitudes 63°24’N and 66°32’N. (2006) examined the link between late Holocene fluctuations of Lambatungnajokull (an outlet glacier of the Vatnajokull ice cap of southeast Iceland) and variations in climate. (2003). and cooling thereafter until the 1970s. including “increasing mean annual air temperatures on the order of 0. using geomorphological evidence to reconstruct patterns of past glacier fluctuations and lichenometry and tephrostratigraphy to date glacial landforms created by the glacier over the past four centuries. and Flaajokull. strong warming in the 1920s.” In addition. when retreat averaged 20 m per year.” and “between 1930 and 1950 this relationship is striking. were able to place the air temperature trend observed at Disko “in a 130 years perspective. By contrast.” but that “similar changes in air temperatures [had] occurred previous[ly] within the last 130 years. This work revealed “there is a particularly close correspondence between summer air temperature and the rate of ice-front recession of Lambatungnajokull during periods of overall retreat. They find “the pattern of glacier fluctuations of Lambatungnajokull over the past 200 years reflects the climatic changes that have occurred in southeast Iceland and the wider region. This work revealed the existence of past “long-term variations and trends that are broadly similar to Icelandic air temperature records: that is.” More specifically. Wavelet analysis further supported the case for solar forcing of SAT.” ! Hansen et al. followed once again by warming—but not generally back up to the level of the 1930s/1940s warm period. non-surging. 53°31’W) on Disko Island (West Greenland) for the period 19912004. and not atmospheric CO2. that has been driving temperature change in the Arctic over the twentieth century.” They also report that “ice-front recession was greatest during the 1930s and 1940s. (2006) analyzed meteorological data from Arctic Station (69°15’N. Soon (2005) explores the question of what was the more dominant driver of twentieth century temperature change in the Arctic: the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration or variations in solar irradiance. (2) global CO2 concentrations taken from estimates made by the NASA GISS climate modeling group. it would appear that it is the sun. He performed a number of statistical analyses on (1) a composite Arctic-wide SAT record constructed by Polyakov et al. with peak SSTs typically being attained around 1940. due to “a high correlation between mean monthly air temperatures at the two stations (1991-2004). This he did by examining the roles the two variables may have played in forcing decadal. while CO2 forcing explained only between 8 and 22 percent. “to the longest record available from Greenland at Ilulissat/Jakobshavn (since 1873). wavelet analysis gave little to no indication of a CO2 forcing of Arctic SSTs.” The researchers also report that “the 20th-century record of reconstructed glacier-front fluctuations at Lambatungnajokull compares well with those of other similar-sized. and (3) a total solar irradiance (TSI) record developed by Hoyt and Schatten (1993. Hanna et al. Solar forcing generally explained well over 75 percent of the variance in decadal-smoothed seasonal and annual Arctic temperatures. outlets of southern Vatnajokull.” Once this was done. marked changes were noted over the course of the study period. they report that the changes they observed over the last decade “are on the same order as changes [that] occurred between 1920 and 1930. Skalafellsjokull. revealing similar time-frequency characteristics for annual and seasonally averaged temperatures at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. they say the retreat “slowed in the 1960s. however. Svalbard and “adjoining Arctic regions” are still experiencing some of the lowest temperatures of the entire Holocene. in the words of the researchers.” and “there has been little overall retreat since the 1980s.

11°C per decade over the last seventy years of the Greenland.” findings. the early twentieth that “the Svalbard mean annual temperature increased century warming of North Atlantic waters rapidly from the 1910s to the late 1930s.” that “the “contributed to higher primary and secondary temperature thereafter became lower. and considering all Godthaab. respectively. and Nome in 128 .” and warming event became occasional. representative of much of the Arctic.” As a prologue to this effort. by Karlén (2005) asks if regions varied but generally remained relatively temperatures in the Arctic are “really rising at an high.5 to 6°C between 1920 and 1940 with the continue. but the mean temperature water allow[ed] for higher production than in the in the late 1990s was still slightly cooler than it was in colder periods.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! constitute the most significant regime shift ecosystems of the northern North Atlantic during the experienced in the North Atlantic in the 20th century. Nordklim data from Bjornoya and Jan contribution from northern spawning sites increased.” Mayen in the north Atlantic.” 1920s and 1930s and to discuss them in the light of contemporary ideas of regime shifts.” and marine ecosystems.” and “migration of ‘warmer water’ twentieth century.” Why? Because.” according to Drinkwater.S. and Stykkisholmur in Iceland.” As a result. (2006) reported using “a new defined regime shift as “a persistent radical shift in Global Synoptic Data Network consisting of 2100 typical levels of abundance or productivity of stations within the boundaries of the former Soviet multiple important components of the marine Union created jointly by the [U.” which warming “led to reduced ice cover in ground over Russia and the Russian polar region the Arctic and subarctic regions and higher sea north of the Arctic circle has been documented by 5 temperatures.” Iceland. This change in climate occurred they note this result “is in agreement with other “during the 1920s.” indicative of a cooling trend of approximately 1200 km northward along West 0.g.” as well as northward shifts of multiple days or 3% and 12 days or 5%.g. e. “through the A recent essay that appeared in Ambio: A Journal 1940s and 1950s air temperatures in the northernmost of the Human Environment.” where he Groisman et al. Ostrov Dikson on the north coast of warming in the 1920s and 1930s is considered to Siberia. which he later shows to be in certain parts of the region. plus the “average air temperatures began to rise rapidly and similar findings of others. cod “spread the late 1930s.” They determined that temperatures in the northern North Atlantic and the “during the past 69 years (1936-2004 period).5-1°C and the cumulative sums of anomalies varied with the Arctic warming). Vardo and Tromso in Also. His answer is a Atlantic and slightly earlier in the northeast Atlantic. resounding no.” Consequently. Salehard in inland Siberia.] National Climatic biological community structure. more open thereafter became warmer. an high Arctic. frozen and unfrozen he first determined that “in the 1920s and 1930s. Sodankylaeand Karasjoki in that were unknown in northern areas prior to the northern Finland. and especially after 1925. Karlén reports In the realm of biology.” Thereafter.” In addition. and in some cases. he writes that “some southern species of fish northern Norway. Drinkwater states that “the Greenland. with the largest changes occurring north increase in duration of the period with snow on the of 60°N. climatology of snow cover. as they from 1.” when “mean “changes in snow cover extent during the 1936-2004 annual air temperatures increased by approximately period cannot be linked with ‘warming’ (particularly 0. “in this particular period the Arctic higher values occurring in West Greenland and warming was absent. frequent visitors. Focusing on Svalbard Lufthavn which cooling has only recently begun to be reversed (located at 78°N latitude). e.” declining in the late 1960s in the northwest alarming rate. species also changed with earlier arrivals and later Karlén goes on to say “the observed warming departures. the five researchers say continued to do so through the 1930s. and “with was reached around 1970.” in the words of Drinkwater.” and that “Svalbard the reduced extent of ice-covered waters. and a minimum production. Jakobshavn. and Egedesmindde in aspects of the event. there ground reports. Drinkwater notes that “new during the 1930s is supported by data from several spawning sites were observed farther north for several stations along the Arctic coasts and on islands in the species or stocks while for others the relative Arctic. “there is also [similar] data from other reports. and their temporal variability for the was a dramatic warming of the air and ocean period from 1936 to 2004. when he reports that In commenting on this development. as he describes it.” as some have claimed. occurring at multiple Data Center and Russian Institute for trophic levels and on a geographical scale that is at Hydrometeorological Information … to assess the least regional in extent.

The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic. Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability.. diverse suggesting a long term cooling and shorter warming periods. can be found at http://www. Drinkwater.. S.. Bradwell.. K. M. although the temperature remains slightly below the level of the late 1930s. T... E. Gower. e.” Similarly.” ! Additional information on this topic. Osborn. and Smith. F. Dugmore. K. 2004. They found “the 1955 to 2005 averages of the summer temperatures and the temperatures of the warmest month at both Godthab Nuuk and Ammassalik are significantly lower than the corresponding averages for the previous 50 years (1905-1955). B. Journal of Climatology 13: 617-633. F. and Schweingruber.. in Karlén’s words. Greenland warming of 1920-1930 and 1995-2005.S.T. S.K. and Lesins. Z. Gonzalez-Rouco. E. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.R.. M. Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes.1029/2003GL018264.php.T. 2001.. Karlén reports that the 250-year temperature record of Stockholm “shows that the fluctuations of the 1900s are not unique.” And this is especially important.. Kaiser. Gedalof. S. P. Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review. M. von Storch.” Karlén notes that “during the 50 years in which the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased considerably.” and that “changes of the same magnitude as in the 1900s occurred between 1770 and 1800. the record from Godthab Nuuk showed that while temperatures there “were also increasing during the 1995-2005 period. and Amon.. C. 2006. Daube.” In addition. Science 295: 2250-2253. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 1515-1518.they stayed generally below the values typical for the 1920-1940 period.. Fan.J. Schweingruber. on Greenland’s southeast coast.E. 129 . because the model-based prediction “is that changes will be strongest and first noticeable in the Arctic. and Zorita. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Harden. 2006. D.H. and distinct but smaller fluctuations occurred around 1825.A. Goulden..H. and Timlin.. R.C. R. Wofsy. F.g. the temperature has decreased.1029/2003GL019251. P. J..” All of these stations. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. A. The Little Ice Age glacier maximum in Iceland and the North Atlantic Oscillation: evidence from Lambatungnajokull. also compared temperatures for the 10-year periods of 1920-1930 and 1995-2005. Progress in Oceanography 68: 134-151. “indicate the same pattern of changes in annual mean temperature: a warm 1930s. and thereafter a warming. Geophysical Research Letters 33: L11707..” The authors conclude that “reports of Greenland temperature changes are .” which leads him to conclude that “the Arctic temperature data do not support the models predicting that there will be a critical future warming of the climate because of an increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. P.M.C.H. J.Observations:!Temperature!Records! western Alaska. and Vaganov. F.. Dubey. L. Fries.. They found the average summer temperature for 2003 in Ammassalik was a record high since 1895. 2001.W. and Schweingruber. Pedersen. Export of young terrigenous dissolved organic carbon from rivers to the Arctic Ocean. 1998. K.” Finally.E. G.. Jones. he says “many stations with records starting later than the 1930s also indicate cooling. Nature 391: 678-682.D. Comiso.. Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America. and Sugden. Chylek. Osborn. Benitez-Nelson. 2006.. R. H. Briffa. 2002. and Godthab Nuuk on the island’s southwestern coast. 2003. Boreas 35: 61-80. to quote him further.A. but “the years 2004 and 2005 were closer to normal being well below temperatures reached in the 1930s and 1940s.C. (2006) provides a more up-to-date report on average summer temperatures recorded at Ammassalik.” Chylek et al. Shiyatov. Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years. Walsh. covering the period 1905 to 2005. and Gersten. T.co2science.. Global and Planetary Change 40: 11-26. 2004. E. Esper. J. Wadhams. a cooling until around 1970. Vize in the Arctic Sea north of the Siberian coast and Frobisher Bay and Clyde on Baffin Island.J. 2000. P.J. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 9093-9116. Cook.org/ subject/a/arctictemptrends. T. S.G. References Benner. southeast Iceland.R. Briffa. K.. Deser. J. Crill.E. The summers at both the southwestern and the southeastern coast of Greenland were significantly colder within the 19552005 period compared to the 1905-1955.W..F. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Odden ice tongue and a study of environmental effects. Trumbore..R.L.J. Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends. B. D.” Chylek et al.M. T.

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Monnin et al. indicating “a in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica over the drift toward a spatial pattern with warmer period 1986 to 2000.” In coupled mode of variability of these two indices addition. changes in air temperature.22/decade). (2003).900 years ago suggest the Prince Gustav Channel emissions would therefore intensify global warming. the SAM index shifted towards more positive global warming should be most evident in earth’s values (0. 2000). just as positive polarity” that they describe as “remarkable.” And so it is.3/decade) represents a “significant bias toward valleys occurred in the summer and autumn. the 14-year temperature decline in the dry (0.” ring of westerly winds encircling Antarctica has A second major blow to the CO2-induced global recently been spending more time in its strong-wind warming hypothesis comes from the contradiction phase.” noting that “the temperature data obtained from 21 surface stations high index polarity of the SH annular mode is and from infrared satellites operating since 1979. This dramatic rate of cooler temperatures over much of the continent. (2002). without offering a mechanism. the authors say the positive trend in the Antarctic cooling between 1966 and 2000.” say Vaughan et al. Yoon et al. between observed and model-predicted Antarctic That is also the conclusion of Kwok and Comiso temperature trends of the past several decades. one region of In another slant on the issue. A the cause of the recent regional warming. as the recent work of CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by Thompson and Solomon (2002) suggests that much of the warming can be explained by “a systematic bias 800 ± 200 years. Many jumped on the global warming bandwagon. He associated with the trend toward a cooling and found that for all of Antarctica. (2002) Antarctica has actually bucked the mean trend and report that “the maritime record on the Antarctic warmed over the same time period: the Antarctic Peninsula shelf suggests close chronological Peninsula/Bellingshausen Sea region.000 to in the air’s CO2 content due to anthropogenic CO2 1. toward the high-index polarity of the SAM. not vice versa (see century increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration as Indermuhle et al. “the “is superficial. CO2-induced 1998. who report that over the 17-year period 1982According to nearly all climate models.” or “confirms that CO2 is not the forcing that initially Southern Hemispheric Annular Mode. temperatures had strengthening of the SH stratospheric polar vortex declined by 0. Thompson and Solomon (2002) also in November.” when. related to changes in the lower stratosphere Comiso (2000) assembled and analyzed Antarctic (Thompson and Wallace. (2000). But is the 132 ..08°C and 0.” cooling. for example. saying the correlation proved that According to Vaughan et al. the SO Doran et al.” At the same time.42°C per decade. and approximately 0. “reflects longer term continental Together.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! temperature increase that has occurred there evidence correlation dominated much of the climate change of CO2-induced global warming? debate. “to do so recent study by Caillon et al. observed for the continent as a whole. in air temperature precede increases (decreases) in Although it is tempting to cite the twentieth atmospheric CO2 content. and that future increases However. the East Antarctic plateau. reporting a cooling rate of temperatures around the Antarctic Peninsula.” most of the 35-year cooling over the continent as a Kwok and Comiso additionally report that “the whole (which did not include any data from the dry tropospheric SH annular mode has been shown to be valleys) also occurred in the summer and autumn. during the stratosphere’s relatively short active season respectively. noting that a positive polarity of polar regions. that has been put forth by Thompson and Solomon In spite of the decades-long cooling that has been (2002). ice“was absent and climate was as warm as it has been coring instrumentation and techniques had improved recently. however.” which is pretty much the same theory report a cooling trend for the interior of Antarctica. “rapid changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration caused regional warming” has led to the loss of seven ice shelves in this region during the past 50 years. they note that sediment cores from 6. they state.” This finding. (2001). but analyses of Antarctic near-surface the SAM index “is associated with cold anomalies and tropospheric air temperatures contradict this over most of Antarctica with the center of action over prediction. of course there was much less CO2 considerably and newer studies with finer temporal resolution began to reveal that increases (decreases) in the air.7°C per decade. such that the drives the climatic system during a deglaciation. demonstrated that during Glacial Termination III. Ice Shelf—which collapsed in this region in 1995— By the late 1990s and early 2000s. (2001)). in the authors’ words. (2002) examined temperature trends index shifted in a negative direction.

But what if the Antarctic were to warm as a result of some natural or anthropogenic-induced change in earth’s climate? What would the consequences be? For one thing.. F. and it would also tend to increase the size and number of populations of the continent’s only two vascular plant species (Xiong et al. 1988. Antarctica: Implications for the history of sea-ice extent.C.E. can be found at http://www. ! Additional information on this topic. Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response. Wall. 2003.. McKay.A.I. J. P. Productivity cycles 133 .W.011 degree of latitude per year. C. P. A. R. Leventer.F.N. Grove.. 1988.. D.. as not even a warming event as dramatic as 10°C is predicted to result in a net change in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (Näslund et al. 13 January 2002 (DOI 10. Indermuhle. In fact. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10. and Sjunneskog..” In the same vein. Cambridge. C. McKnight..D. And in another study of Antarctic sea ice extent. Moorhead.” noting further that “evidence of the LIA has been found in several studies of Antarctic marine sediments (Leventer and Dunbar. A. The temperature history of Antarctica provides no evidence for the CO2-induced global warming hypothesis. A. indicating the possibility of coherent climate variability in the Holocene.. The Little Ice Age. A. B. 2000). Spatial patterns of variability in Antarctic surface temperature: Connections to the South Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation. 1996. J. Clow. Monnin. Combining these results with those from a previous study revealed these trends to be consistent back to at least 1978. Smith et al. 2000. Further evidence that the Antarctic as a whole is in the midst of a cooling trend comes from Watkins and Simmonds (2000). they found statistically significant increases in sea ice area and total sea ice extent. UK. it would likely help to increase both the number and diversity of penguin species (Sun et al. S. Grove. J. Domack.. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. C.. as well as an increase in sea ice season length since the 1990s.. Doran.P.. Palaeoclimatology. H.B. 2002.W.. which also demonstrates the presence of the MWP in Antarctica.. which suggests that predictions of catastrophic coastal flooding due to the melting of the world’s polar ice sheets are way off the mark. Unstable climate oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin. The Holocene 11: 1-9. and Dunbar.. Nature advance online publication. Leventer et al. R.. References Caillon. Kang.. Brachfeld. With respect to the continent’s great ice sheets. Khim et al. A. 2002. Severinghaus. T. E. both of which occurred globally (Lamb.’s own paper.. and Parsons. and Bahk. J. Lyons. Journal of Climate 13: 1674-1696. Virginia. N.J. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 735-738. Jouzel.E. R. 1999). S. Taylor.Observations:!Temperature!Records! correlation with Holocene glacial events in the Northern Hemisphere.L. 2000.E. V. A. 2000.. The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel. there would not be much of a problem either. J.. 2000. Fritsen. Fountain. Antarctic Peninsula: A Holocene palaeoenvironmental reference for the circum-Antarctic. Quaternary Research 58: 234-245. Lamb. as well as earlier cold and warm periods of similar intensity and duration. 2000).. and Manley. 2002. Leventer.H.H.C. Variability and trends in Antarctic surface temperatures from in situ and satellite infrared measurements. E. Antarctic Peninsula. Brachfeld.. Yoon. S.. Kwok.1038/nature710). J.. J. Paleoceanography 3: 373-386.1029/2002GL015415. (2002) say that “two of the most significant climatic events during the late Holocene are the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Warm Period (MWP).P.. Ishman. Stauffer. E.” To this list of scientific journal articles documenting the existence of the LIA in Antarctica can now be added Khim et al. D.. and Stocker. and Lipenkov. Comiso. McClennen. 1988). D. Walsh. C. Dunbar. G.co2science.. Recent diatom record of McMurdo Sound..M. R. J.. Reporting on trends in a number of Southern Ocean sea ice parameters over the period 1987 to 1996. Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core. Antarctica. and Comiso. 1988.H.Y. Kang. Barnola.G. 1996. Chronology of the Palmer Deep site.B. H.T. C.php. B-K. Yuan and Martinson (2000) report that the net trend in the mean Antarctic ice edge over the past 18 years has been an equatorward expansion of 0.. Domack et al.org/ subject/a/antarcticatemp. it argues strongly against it. Domack. Khim. Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across Termination III. Science 299: 1728-1731.Y.-M. Cambridge University Press. J. Palaeoecology 1: 13-37. Priscu.M.. Leventer. 1965. 1965.C. J. Palaeogeography. 2000). who analyzed region-wide changes in sea ice. W...

1999. East Antarctica: impacts of present. P. BioScience 49: 393-404.M. Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change.B. Mosley-Thompson.I. Science 296: 895-899.S.M. Fastook. D.. 2000. Y. Nature 291: 112-114. B. atmosphere. Kim.. Meuller. B.. past and future climates. F. T..J. I. Stammerjohn. 2000. Antarctic sea ice extent variability and its global connectivity. and Vernet M. and Day. Sun. J. Photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation and growth response of Antarctic vascular plants to contrasting temperature regimes. Näslund.C. D. Geological Society of America Bulletin 108: 1626-1644. Ainley.. J. Leventer.. X. A. L. Glaciomarine sedimentation and its paleoclimatic implications on the Antarctic Peninsula shelf over the last 15.. 2002. Science 293: 177-179 Watkins. A.. S.C.F. Yuan.. Marine ecosystem sensitivity to climate change. Thompson. Monnin.J. Palaeoecology 185: 235-254. B. A.. Numerical modeling of the ice sheet in western Dronning Maud Land. Palaeogeography.Y. E. Smith. Yoon. T. Vaughan. A 3... J. 134 . Dällenbach. Xie. D. and Solomon. Part II: Trends. Marshall. 2000. Baker. J.J. D. D. and Simmonds. R. J. 2000.000 years. K. C.G.C. J. Palaeoclimatology. and Zhao.. Raynaud. 2000. Nature 407: 858. Current trends in Antarctic sea ice: The 1990s impact on a short climatology. S. 2002. Journal of Glaciology 46: 54-66. 2000. Stauffer. oceans. Indermühle... D. Journal of Climate 13: 1697-1717. Devil in the detail. Xiong. 2001. Flückiger. 2001. American Journal of Botany 87: 700710. G.W. S. W. and Mulvaney.G. Z. Stocker. King. Kennett.. and Kang.O. and biota.. Thompson.A.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! of 200-300 years in the Antarctic Peninsula region: Understanding linkage among the sun.-K. Annular modes in extratropical circulation.L and Holmlund.. Domack. H.W. J.-M. E.000-year record of penguin populations. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination. E. Emslie. and Wallace. Connolley. sea ice... Journal of Climate 13: 4441-4451. E.. Fraser. and Martinson.. J. and Barnola.. R. Park. A. Journal of Climate 13: 1018-1036.

but apparently is not. the largest contributions to sea level rise came from Alaska. K. Observations: Glaciers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. 135 This chapter summarizes the extensive scientific literature on glaciers. and sea level rise that frequently contradicts and rarely reinforces the IPCC’s claims quoted above. Sea Ice. precipitation. will melt ice—often quite slowly.” and more specifically that “the late 20th-century glacier wastage likely has been a response to post-1970 warming. Z. Glaciers Model studies indicate that CO2-induced global warming will result in significant melting of earth’s glaciers. Glaciers around the world are continuously advancing and retreating. sea ice. and Sea Level 4.. precipitation..4 ! Observations: Glaciers. Any significant warming. UK. are entirely irrelevant to illuminating the causes of warming. S.2. Qin.1. M. Glaciers 4. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.1. the Arctic and the Asian high mountains. and Miller.5. sea ice. that such facts as melting glaciers and disappearing Arctic sea ice. we examine global trends and data from . fluctuations of glacier mass. References IPCC. M. D. and sea levels: all fluctuate in response to processes that are unrelated to CO2. 339). Precipitation Trends 4. Taken together. whether anthropogenic or natural. p. Sea-level Rise Introduction The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) alleges that “recent decreases in ice mass are correlated with rising surface air temperatures. In this section. H. Therefore. Precipitation. It should be obvious. The same is largely true of sea ice. 4. Strongest mass losses per unit area have been observed in Patagonia.4. with no evidence of a trend that can be linked to CO2 concentrations in the air. while interesting. Sea Ice.. Solomon. Sea Ice 4.) Cambridge University Press. 2007-I.L... Tignor. In addition.3. Manning.. the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica have very likely been contributing to sea level rise over 1993 to 2003 [italics in the original]” (IPCC. Streamflow 4. M. contributing to a rise in global sea level. precipitation patterns. (Eds. Cambridge. Averyt. Marquis. and sea level depend on many factors other than temperature and are poor measuring devices for global warming. Because of the corresponding large areas. and Sea Level ! 4. Precipitation.B. Chen. 2007-I. and therefore cannot be taken either as signs of anthropogenic global warming or of climate disasters that may be yet to come. Alaska and northwest USA and southwest Canada. claims that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is occurring that are backed by such accounts are simply confusing the consequences of warming with the causes—a common logical error.

1997. 2001). he notes that “Alpine glaciers are presently known to exist. Similar results have been reported by Braithwaite co2science. Y..L.” 115. Yet they additionally report that Dowdeswell.J. Additional information on this topic. and if both winter and summer mass balances are As for the glacier with the longest mass balance required. during a period of colder global temperature known as the Little Ice Age (Broecker. toward a less negative mass R.to late-1800s and many glaciers returned to positions characteristic Braithwaite.H. The mass balance of circum-Arctic glaciers and lose mass. R. and Thomas.F. how few glacier data exist. regions of the world remain unsampled.” Although these Arctic glaciers continue to R. during a time when the atmosphere experienced the bulk of the increase in its CO2 Braithwaite.” suggesting we really know very made by the IPCC that most claciers are retreating or little about the true state of most of the world’s melting. climate. become available. in the words of a negative mass balance of little trend. Harrison. growing. have a positive trend. 2000. Furthermore. Bjornsson. W. Holmlund. highlights “one of the most however.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! each year.A. B. and glaciers in the Caucasus are close to 2000). (1997) found that of the 18 glaciers Broecker. 2000).J. J. Braithwaite notes that “there is no obvious (Braithwaite and Zhang. North the face of what some incorrectly call the America. Relationships between interannual variability of glacier mass balance and content. Progress in Physical of glacier retreat has not increased over the past 70 Geography 26: 76-95. Jania. When the length of common or global trend of increasing glacier melt in record increases to five years. “almost 80% of the mass balance time series also A. its mass balance began to trend upward. or only Global data on glaciers do not support claims poorly sampled.D. According to Braithwaite. Ommanney.co2science. the Storglaciaren in northern Sweden. Antarctica.O. glaciers. Glaciers That Speak in Tongues and with the longest mass balance histories. just over 80 other tales of global warming. only 42 glaciers for the first 15 years of its 50-year record it exhibited qualify. including reviews of glaciers not twentieth century. important problems for mass-balance glaciology” and actually becoming positive over about the last decade demonstrates the “sad fact that many glacierized (Braithwaite and Zhang. Mass balance data (which would be positive equilibrium for 1980-95.1. Glacier mass balance: the first 50 of pre-Little Ice Age times..’ but there are The full story must begin with a recognition of just also regions with positive balances.. Scandinavian glaciers are have been inventoried to any degree (Kieffer et al. and Zhang. W. 2000). if 10 record of all. the number drops to 79.. and South America. 2001.M. Journal of Glaciology 45: 456-462. C. This lack of glacial data. Thereafter.S. only 67. the Arctic. can be found at http://www.000 (42 percent) generally shrinking. Glazovsky. Many records indicate widespread glacial retreat as References temperatures began to rise in the mid..” Within Europe. Additional information “unprecedented” warming of the latter part of the on this topic. “there are several regions with highly 4. Koerner. measurements of 246 glaciers from around the world that were made between 1946 and 1995. who reviewed and analyzed mass balance heading Glaciers. J. negative for shrinkage) exist for more whole world are combined for this most recent period than a single year for only slightly more than 200 of time. as they have probably done since the end recent climate change.1. Natural History 110 (8): 60percent displayed negative mass balances over their 69. 2002.. Quaternary Research 48: 1-14.php under the (2002). they are losing smaller amounts 136 . Grove.. years of record is used as a cutoff. Braithwaite and Zhang. years. H. can be found at widespread and major glacier advances occurred http://www. In many instances the rate years of international monitoring.. J.” And when results for the for growth. balance. discussed here. including reviews of newer publications as they During the fifteenth through nineteenth centuries.000 glaciers for example. In an analysis of Arctic glacier mass balance. which is hardly what one would expect in Africa. Of the 160. Dowdeswell et al... Europe.org/subject/g/glaciers. Lefauconnier.S. Global negative mass balances in agreement with a public perception of ‘the glaciers are melting. Hagen. periods of record. P. of the Little Ice Age. R. 2001.php. this number drops to recent years.org/subject/g/subject_g.

calling this attribution a fact “that cannot be refuted by any scientist..1°C. L. Raup.” New York Senator Hillary Clinton echoed Senator McCain’s sentiments.. EOS: Transactions. both of them were wrong. Kieffer. D. A. Johansson. J. wind and current observations in the Indian Ocean and their relationship to East African rainfall (Hastenrath. and paleolimnological data (Verschuren et al. including the aforementioned senators.. a number of people. G.. Copland... J.. D... 2001). Uganda). K. M.. say “all data indicate that modern East African climate experienced an abrupt and marked drop in air humidity around 1880. e. A.. they say “since February 2000 an automatic weather station has operated on a horizontal glacier surface at the summit’s Northern Icefield. So what caused the ice fields of Kilimanjaro to recede so steadily for so many years? Citing “historical accounts of lake levels (Hastenrath. Wohlleben. Brown. water balance models of lakes (Nicholson and Yin. B.Observations:!Glaciers. Rivera. F. M. who noted that “glacierization in East Africa is limited to three massifs close to the equator: ! Kilimanjaro (Tanzania. Ruyter de Wildt. Braun. Molg et al. Kenya)... Reeh. 2001.. Bamber. 2003b).. showing photos of the magnificent landmark taken in 1993 and 2000.” as it considerably reduces glacier mass balance accumulation. Scambos. Hall. Kargel. however. declared that the ice fields retreated because of the rising temperatures.. M. B.” All three sites experienced strong ice field recession over the past century or more.. 2001).” In spite of the absolute certitude with which the two senators expressed their views on the subject. M. Schaper. J. 2001). J. DueHagen. encouraged in this contention by a few reports in the scientific literature (Alverson et al.1. 1987. 1984. Scharfen. Hoelzle. In addition.. Ohmura.. and Rwenzori (Zaire. Engeset... Nicholson and Yin.. calculating the spatial extent and geometry of the ice cap for a number of subsequent points in time and finding that “the basic evolution in spatial distribution of ice bodies on the summit is modeled well. MacKinnon.2.. Antoninetti. “The Snows of Kilimanjaro. and air temperatures [measured by ventilated sensors. H. F. 2001. Hay et al. V. Displaying a second set of photos taken from the same vantage point in 1970 and 1999—the first depicting “a 20-foot-high glacier” and the second “only a trace of ice”—she said that in those pictures “we have evidence in the most dramatic way possible of the effects of 29 years of global warming.” The model they used. Fujita. Rignot..” and they add that the resultant “strong reduction in precipitation at the end of the 19th century is the main reason for modern glacier recession in East Africa... Cohen.!and!Sea!Level! Grove. American Geophysical Union 81: 265. he attributed the decline of glacial ice atop the mount during the intervening years to CO2induced global warming..M. J. I. D. Senate in 2004. Thompson et al.. M. Modern glacier recession on Kilimanjaro began around 1880.. as demonstrated for Mount Kenya and Rwenzori (Kruss and Hastenrath. Molg et al. K. 2001).. As a result.!Precipitation. Climatic Change 48: 5382.. This view of the subject. Van der Veen. Rau. 2000).. Africa On the floor of the U. Maisch. Mount Kenya (Kenya). 2001. they report “there is no evidence of a sudden change in temperature at the end of the 19th century (Hastenrath. 2003a)..V. Irion. New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets.. In that part of the world.g.!Sea!Ice. M... The initiation of the “Little Ice Age” in regions round the North Atlantic. applied a radiation model to an idealized representation of the 1880 ice cap of Kilimanjaro. and Young. O. Barry.. Bindschadler.” With respect to Kilimanjaro..” Then. A. 2002). which allowed for no “wiggle room” whatsoever..” which makes it pretty difficult to understand how ice could melt under such conditions.. especially his famous short story. R.. Solomina. E.. 2000.S.. Hagen. M..S. J. Paul. however.” Molg et al.” and “monthly mean air temperatures only vary slightly around the annual mean of -7. Haeberli. 4. J.. Bishop. N.” and that “East African long-term temperature records of the twentieth century show diverse trends and do not exhibit a uniform warming signal (King’uyu et al. R.” in the words of a trio of glaciologists (Molg et al. approximately the same time the planet began to recover from the several-hundred-year cold spell of the Little Ice Age. Thompson. is “highly simplified. they note that “increased incoming shortwave radiation due to decreases in cloudiness— both effects of the drier climatic conditions—plays a decisive role for glacier retreat by increasing ablation. 270271. T. W. N. R. Georges and Kaser (2002)] never rise above the freezing point.. Shroder. T..” In further investigating this phenomenon. Kaab. Konovalov. which specifically addresses the unique configuration of the summit’s vertical ice 137 . 2000. M.O. Koenig. D. Arizona Senator John McCain described his affection for the writings of Ernest Hemingway. Fitzharris. 2002). as has been demonstrated for the region by Kruss (1983) and Hastenrath (1984)..

they say no Kilimanjaro. which determines the reflective maintaining ice retreat on the mountain’s summit characteristics of the glacier’s surface. 1983. “the dominant reasons for this strong recession in Kruss and Hastenrath (1987). Kruss and Hastenrath. 2003. concluded that “modern temperature-driven turbulent exchange of sensible glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro is much more complex heat. 1880.” temperatures have not contributed to the recession both of which phenomena they relate to a dramatic process on the summit. Kaser and 1984.” but they add that the century. 1997)..” and of little importance. This work century. that the revealed. (2002). and that “positive air temperatures have temperature trends over the period 1948-2005 have not contributed to the recession process on the been observed at the approximate height of the summit. 1983.” Noting that all Georges (1997) for the Peruvian Cordillera Blanca glaciers in equatorial East Africa exhibited strong and Francou et al. 2004).. Kaser et al. accumulation and increased ablation have 2003b]. Kaser and at the end of the nineteenth century (Hastenrath.” Buttressing their findings is the fact.” In terms of why glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro In a subsequent study of the ice fields of was so dramatic over the twentieth century.g.. Molg and Hardy (2004) derived an researchers note that for the mountain’s plateau energy balance for the horizontal surface of the glaciers. Molg et al. Kruss (1983). provided “a clear indication that solar radiation controlled by surface albedo and. “climatological processes other than air temperature with the most recent retreat rates (1989-2003) smaller control the ice recession in a direct manner” on than in any other interval. Kaser et al. and Molg et al.” and that reduced Osmaston. Kaser (2003a) for the Rwenzori massif (East Africa)]. Kruss.” In addition. that “detailed analyses of glacier retreat in “changes in air humidity and atmospheric moisture the global tropics uniformly reveal that changes in content (e. they say it is “a process driven by a complex Molg and Hardy conclude that “modern glacier combination of changes in several different climatic retreat on Kilimanjaro and in East Africa in general parameters [e. Hastenrath and Kruss.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! by the variation in net shortwave radiation. 2003b).. (2003) for the Bolivian Cordillera recession trends over the past century. 1987. see the decrease in the region’s specific humidity over this recession of Kilimanjaro’s glaciers as “a direct period. with humidity-related variables dominating “maintained the retreat until the present (Molg et al. in their words. for Mount Kenya (East Africa). in their words. 2002. They also say. who. Soden and Schroeder. this combination. 1997. (2004) similarly concluded that report it.” which is walls. Kaser and mountain climate (Broecker. 2001. the six Kilimanjaro.” Indeed. [was] initiated by a drastic reduction in precipitation 1987.. and changes in from the terms accounting for net radiation. precipitation is the main climatic parameter governing and variability.g. Wagnon et al. Hastenrath. Francou et al. consequence solely of increased air temperature. thus. according to the two researchers. 1992.” The and Noggler. governed 138 . Cullen et al.” directly contradicting Irion (2002) and Kilimanjaro glaciers. conclude that all relevant highest glacial recession rates on Kilimanjaro “observations and facts” clearly indicate that “occurred in the first part of the twentieth century.” significant. but that there has been a small Thompson et al.” drying of the regional atmosphere that occurred Two years later. 1984. as they Kaser et al.” which appears to have that is presently glaciated—based on data obtained happened sometime in the latter part of the nineteenth from an automated weather station. and Hastenrath (1995) modern times are reduced precipitation (Kruss. 2000) seem to climate variables related to air humidity prevail in play an underestimated key role in tropical highcontrolling the modern retreat [e.g.. Molg et al. 1987. (2004): “Positive air (Kruss and Hastenrath. they report that Real (both South American Andes).” 2003b). which they say “remains considerably smaller than simply attributable to ‘global warming only’. (2006) report that around 1880 and the ensuing dry climate that “all ice bodies on Kilimanjaro have retreated subsequently prevailed throughout the twentieth drastically between 1912-2003. there is no alternative for them “other than to glacier that comprises the northern ice field of Kibo— continuously retreat once their vertical margins are the only one of the East African massif’s three peaks exposed to solar radiation. Much less plateau in the drier climate since ca.. 2001. 1996) and increased availability of take-home message of their study is essentially the shortwave radiation due to decreases in cloudiness same as that of Kaser et al. that “the main energy “vertical wall retreat that governs the retreat of exchange at the glacier-atmosphere interface results plateau glaciers is irreversible. is the Consequently. Georges. Molg et al. in this regard. Kruss and Hastenrath..

and Hardy.” and in this regard they add that their continuing but decelerating demise could be helped along by the continuous slow decline in the air’s specific humidity. and Kruss.1029/2002JD002473.!Precipitation. Ventilated and unventilated air temperature measurements for glacierclimate studies on a tropical high mountain site. Tanzania. with Duane et al. Randolph. Myers. Kilimanjaro glaciers: Recent areal extent from satellite data and new interpretation of observed 20th century retreat rates.. and Kaser. Science 293: 47-49. S.. Thompson. Losleben. Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands. 2008. In the case of the mountain’s slope glaciers. 2001. J. Bolivia. Wagnon.org/ subject/a/africagla..” and Mote and Kaser reporting that “warming fails spectacularly to explain the behavior of the glaciers and plateau ice on Africa’s Kilimanjaro massif . Reidel. J.R. C. and Hardy. R. Larocque. W. C. and Hyera. J..” In addition.” Clearly. D. 1997. Pedersen. for many similar claims related to the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content.M. 2004. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. 2002.php. Hughes. Francou. Mote and Kaser (2007) and Duane et al. Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10.” Two more recent studies. 2002.J. Hardy... 2003. S. Shanks..1029/2002JD002503. S. B. S.Observations:!Glaciers. or lack thereof. and Georges. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 10. Nature 415: 905-909. 1995.I. Stern. 1992. K. Cullen et al.R. S. T. Bradley. Bradley. Modern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro as evidence of climate change: Observations and facts. L. R.R. P.. D.J. Tropical climate change recorded by a glacier in the central Andes during the last decades of the 20th century: Chacaltaya. Cullen et al. General characteristics of temperature and humidity variability on Kilimanjaro.. Hastenrath. Norwell.1029/2006GL027084. T. References Alverson. Annals of Glaciology 16: 127-133. International Journal of Climatology 24: 329-339. T. confidently conclude that the glaciers of Kilimanjaro “are merely remnants of a past climate rather than sensitive indicators of 20th century climate change. G. 1984. Briffa.!and!Sea!Level! ! twentieth century climate have not altered their continuous demise. can be found at http://www. Pepin. concluding that “the reasons for the rapid decline in Kilimanjaro’s glaciers are not primarily due to increased air temperatures. Cole. Annals of Glaciology 24: 344-349. Kaser. Vuille..” Consequently.E. 16°S. T. Glacier recession on Mount Kenya in the context of the global tropics. K.J. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 10. S. D. M. but a lack of precipitation..S. Consequently. and Tudhope. J.. Hastenrath.C.. Hay. D.D. Cox. M. Irion. 2006. Science 291: 1690-1691.. Duane. The dramatic retreat of Mount Kenya’s glaciers between 1963 and 1987: Greenhouse forcing. W.co2science. 1997.F. and in light of all the facts they present and the analyses they and others have conducted over many years. but their ongoing demise does suggest they are still out of equilibrium.. Bulletin de l’Institut français d’études andines 24: 633-638. Molg. (2008) additionally reject the temperature-induced decline hypothesis for Kilimanjaro. MA. G. Georges. Mendoza. K.D.E. Cullen. the misguided rushes to judgment that have elevated Kilimanjaro’s predicted demise by CO2-induced global warming to iconic status should give everyone pause to more carefully evaluate the evidence. Antarctic.. S.” which they take as evidence that the glaciers “were responding to a large prior shift in climate.S.L. Climatic Change 50: 209217. Rogers.. N. and Sicart.W. Hussein. Molg. they report that “no footprint of multidecadal changes in areal extent of slope glaciers to fluctuations in twentieth century climate is observed. K. G. the twentieth century retreat of Kilimanjaro’s plateau glaciers is a long-term response to what we could call “relict climate change” that likely occurred in the late nineteenth century. and Snow. 2001. P.. 139 . N.!Sea!Ice.. Kaser. G. The Glaciers of Equatorial East Africa. Variations of East African climate during the past two centuries. M. The melting snows of Kilimanjaro. and Alpine Research 40: 323-334. R.. Steffen. R. I. and to a lesser extent other tropical glaciers.. USA. Hastenrath.. Broecker. say that their rapid recession in the first part of the twentieth century shows they “were drastically out of equilibrium.. D. Arctic. Mountain glaciers: records of atmospheric water vapor content? Global Biogeochemical Cycles 4: 589-597. Additional information on this topic. A global paleoclimate observing system.. M. 2001.. D. G. Hastenrath..G.I. Changes in the equilibrium line altitude in the tropical Cordillera Blanca (Peru) between 1930 and 1950 and their spatial variations. Kaser..

after which they used the data to develop a velocity map that revealed a system of tributaries that channel ice from the catchment area into the fast-flowing glacier.A.H. Mote.1.. Molg. part 1: Horizontal reference surfaces.D. H. Glacier fluctuations in the Rwenzori Range (East Africa) during the 20th century—a preliminary report. S. Cambridge. they were able to calculate an approximate mass balance for the glacier within an uncertainty of approximately 30 percent.3 kilometers per year over the four-year period of the study. Tropical Glaciers. 2004. Their results suggested the mass balance of the catchment region was not significantly different from zero.R.. and Sicart. Some speculate this event could herald the “beginning of the end” of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Davis.N..E. Brecher. Wagnon.6 meters per year over this period. 2003b.. S. Journal of Climate 13: 2876-2886. G. E. Rignot says the questions the study raises concerning the long-term stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet “cannot be answered at present. Zagorodnov.M. 2000. East Africa.R. Recent trends of minimum and maximum surface temperatures over Eastern Africa. Bolivia. during the 1997/98 El Niño year. D. M. Kruss. Verschuren. Kruss. Ribstein. 2002.A. Kaser. G. Laird. Climate change in East Africa: A numerical simulation from the 100 years of terminus record at Lewis Glacier.. P.100 years.E.A. By combining these velocity data with information on ice thickness and snow accumulation rates.D. T. Climatic Change 48: 387-398.. 2001. Journal of Climate 13: 3337-3341.W. Shepherd et al. 2002. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 10.S.R. T. S.2 ± 0. The data indicated a retreat rate of 1. International Journal of Climatology 23: 291-303. Nicholson. Francou. and Noggler. P. K. D. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: 10. during the 20th century.. Scientific studies. V.1029/2003JD004338. G.” In a subsequent study. 2007. G. B. P.-N.G. and Yin.. Kilimanjaro ice core records: Evidence of Holocene climate change in tropical Africa..3. 2000.R. King’uyu. Rignot (1998) employed satellite radar measurements of the grounding line of Pine Island Glacier from 1992 to 1996 to determine whether it was advancing or retreating. Molg. Anomalous heat and mass budget of Glaciar Zongo.E. Georges. J. and Hastenrath. Because the study period was so short. and Hardy. 4.. Mashiotta. 1996.. Rainfall conditions in Equatorial East Africa during the nineteenth century as inferred from the record of Lake Victoria. V.. 1987. P. and Osmaston. a large iceberg separated from West Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier.” And since glacier dynamics are typically driven by phenomena operating on time scales of hundreds to thousands of 140 . Mikhalenko. Ablation and associated energy balance of a horizontal glacier surface on Kilimanjaro. Thompson. D. and Kaser. Science 298: 589-593. The contribution of increased incoming shortwave radiation to the retreat of the Rwenzori Glaciers. and Kaser. Antarctica In early November 2001. E. K. and Schroeder. 2003a. Hardy. Solarradiation-maintained glacier recession on Kilimanjaro drawn from combined ice-radiation geometry modeling. however. Stenoien and Bentley (2000) mapped the catchment region of Pine Island Glacier using radar altimetry and synthetic aperture radar interferometry. Mount Kenya. and Anyamba. Zeitschrift fur Gletscherkunde and Glazialgeologie 32: 109-117. Molg. B. Lin. and Kaser. T. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1. 2001. UK. T. G. suggest otherwise. (2001) used satellite altimetry and interferometry to determine the rate of change of thickness of Pine Island Glacier’s entire drainage basin between 1992 and 1999. X.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Kaser. and Cumming. H. determining that the grounded glacier thinned by up to 1. Journal of Glaciology 47: 21-28. L.F. P.. Nature 403: 410-414. B.R.. Henderson. This event was of great interest to scientists because the Pine Island Glacier is currently the fastest-moving glacier in Antarctica and the continent’s largest discharger of ice. C. Hardy.1029/2003JD003546. P. 2000.. International Journal of Climatology 7: 493-505. Soden.K. Zeitschrift fur Gletscherkunde and Glazialgeologie 19: 43-60. Cambridge University Press. J. S.J. and Beer. Mosley-Thompson. Decadal variations in tropical water vapor: a comparison of observations and a model simulation. 1983. The role of radiation geometry in the climate response of Mount Kenya’s glaciers. L. D. The shrinking glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can global warming be blamed? American Scientist 95: 318-325. B. They note “the thinning cannot be explained by short-term variability in accumulation and must result from glacier dynamics. Ogallo.

O. they conclude that evidence from the Ross Sea area suggests “lateHolocene climatic deterioration and glacial advance (within the past few hundred years) and twentieth century retreat.” Hall and Denton report that it “overlaps in time with the readvance phase known in the Alps [of Europe] as the ‘Little Ice Age’. 1988. Olsson. 1996)...co2science. Ellis-Evans. which has been correlated with the ‘Little Ice Age’ (Birkenmajer. we could expect global mean sea level to rise by one millimeter … about the thickness of a common paper clip. 1981. Bulletin de l’Academie Polonaise des Sciences 29: 119-127. 1994b. and Orombelli. 1999).” In addition. they report that “farther north.” In summarizing the results of their work. Humlum. followed by twentieth-century retreat at some localities along the Scott Coast. followed by significant advances during the intervening Little Ice Age.” as Hall and Denton put it— “the Wilson Piedmont Glacier was still less extensive than it is now. Citing evidence collected by Baroni and Orombelli (1994a).org/ subject/a/antarcticagla.. S. They also evaluated more recent changes in snow and ice cover based on aerial photography and observations carried out since the late 1950s.!Precipitation. and de Lirio. 2001). 141 .” They rightly conclude that the glacier had to have advanced in the past several hundred years. 1996. C. G. What if the rate of glacier thinning—1.” And if that happens? They say they “estimate the net contribution to eustatic sea level to be 6 mm. which runs parallel to the coast of the western Ross Sea from McMurdo Sound north to Granite Harbor. Geology 22: 23-26. Lichenometric dating of raised marine beaches at Admiralty Bay. 1996.” which they further note “has been documented in glacial records as far afield as the Southern Alps of New Zealand (Wardle. 1981. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Late Holocene paleoclimate records from lake sediments on James Ross Island.!Sea!Ice. Antarctica). Antarctica. C. Near the end of the Medieval Warm Period—“as late as 890 14C yr BP. Birkenmajer.” And they report that Baroni and Orombelli (1994b) “documented post-fourteenth century advance of a glacier near Edmonson’s Point. Palaeoecology 121: 195-220. similar to that in Greenland during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (O’Brien et al.M.” In speaking of the significance of the “recent advance of the Wilson Piedmont Glacier. Hakansson. 1973. C.. H. King George Island (South Shetland Islands. also say they could “detect no change in the rate of ice thinning across the glacier over [the] 7-year period. Shepherd et al. 1994a.. although they note its eastern margin has retreated in the past 50 years. state that “if the trunk continues to lose mass at the present rate it will be entirely afloat within 600 years. Baroni. Martinez de Pison et al. Abandoned penguin rookeries as Holocene paleoclimatic indicators in Antarctica.” They further note that “Kreutz et al. can be found at http://www. this observation would argue against twentieth century warming being the cause of the thinning. 1995)..” Summarizing these and other findings..” This result and the others they cite make it clear that glacial activity on Antarctica has followed the pattern of millennialscale variability that is evident elsewhere in the world: recession to positions during the Medieval Warm Period that have not yet been reached in our day. the temperate land mass closest to the Ross Sea region. Hall and Denton say “the Wilson Piedmont Glacier appears to have undergone advance at approximately the same time as the main phase of the ‘Little Ice Age’. Black. Antarctic Science 6: 497-505. they note there was “an advance of at least one kilometer of the Hell’s Gate Ice Shelf . (1997) interpreted the Siple Dome [Antarctica] glaciochemical record as indicating enhanced atmospheric circulation intensity at AD ~1400. J. glaciers in the South Shetland Islands adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula underwent a late-Holocene advance. K. Turning to other glaciers.php References Baroni.. Palaeoclimatology. S.” which also suggests that a long-term phenomenon of considerable inertia must be at work. Clapperton and Sugden.6 meters per year—continues unabated? Shepherd et al. Holocene glacier variations in the Terra Nova Bay area (Victoria Land. G.Observations:!Glaciers. Additional information on this topic.. Palaeogeography. and Orombelli. Björck et al. Björck.” This means that for each century of the foreseeable future.!and!Sea!Level! ! years. within the past few hundred years. They report a number of similar observations by other investigators. Hall and Denton (2002) mapped the distribution and elevation of surficial deposits along the southern Scott Coast of Antarctica in the vicinity of the Wilson Piedmont Glacier. West Antarctica). The chronology of the raised beaches was determined from more than 60 14C dates of organic materials they had previously collected from hand-dug excavations (Hall and Denton.

Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Black. emerging from the coldest part of the past H. A.A. Glacial geomorphology. I. Mayewski. C.J. University of Maine. curves for the southern Scott Coast. D. we examine historic trends in Arctic Thesis. G. M.D. Calkin et al. and the last half of the M. 1996. Wingham.H. In this Detected in the Southern Alps of New Zealand? MS subsection. During these very cold periods. The mass balance records of the 18 Arctic O’Brien. If the models are correct. along the northernmost Gulf of Alaska between the Hall. Science 270: 1962-1964. and Whitlow. say “there is no compelling indication of increasingly negative balance conditions which 4. D. B.A. when approximately two-thirds of losing smaller amounts each year. Holocene history of the general retreat during the Medieval Warm Period that Wilson Piedmont Glacier along the southern Scott Coast. the Kreutz. and Bentley. P. Antarctica: evidence (2001) report there were several periods of glacial for Holocene deglaciation of the western Ross Sea. B.. 1995. be expected from anthropogenically induced global warming.J.. and Corr. L. Twickler.. Meeker.D. and Lopezglaciers “reached their Holocene maximum Martinez. Inland thinning of Pine Island Glacier. they Computer simulations of global climate change have report that “almost 80 percent of the mass balance long indicated the world’s polar regions should show time series also have a positive trend. although most Arctic warming.L. M. 1200.R. Can a Little Ice Age Climate Signal Be unprecedented in the past millennium. 2002.E. toward a less the first and severest signs of CO2-induced global negative mass balance. J.I. New Zealand Journal of Botany 11: 349-388..761-21. Pine Island islands indicate that the generally negative glacier Glacier. Over of Quaternary Science 14: 641-650. Variations of the glaciers of Westland These observations suggest that Arctic glaciers National Park and the Hooker Range. the modern-era rise in atmospheric CO2 occurred and earth’s temperature supposedly rose to a level 142 . 1997. (1997). Mansley. Antarctica: A study of the catchment using mass balances observed over the past 50 years have interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements and probably been typical of Arctic glaciers since the end radar altimetry. Nevertheless.A. as Alaskan Martinez de Pison. E. Their analysis showed that more than 80 percent of the glaciers displayed Rignot.. and Denton. New relative sea-level Kenai Peninsula and Yakutat Bay.” 5A: 23-27. and Pittalwala.R. P. the scientists report that Antarctica.” Hence.F. In fact.J.779. 1999. Quaternary comprehensive research of Holocene glaciation. 2001.H.S. were studied by core. BAS GEOMAP extensions. 2000. Clapperton. Wardle. Arctic might. changes in atmospheric circulation during the Little Ice glacier equilibrium-line altitudes were depressed from Age. Journal advance and retreat over the past 7.I.M. glacier behavior to determine the credibility of current climate models with respect to their polar predictions. Dowdeswell et al. and Sugden. Arche. S.” Science Reviews 7: 195-198.L. J. lasted for “at least a few centuries prior to A. Meese. and Denton.S. Dowdeswell et al. “ice-core records from the Canadian High Arctic Stenoien. S. Mayewski. 1998. K.” Then came three major intervals of Little Ice Age glacial advance: the early fifteenth century. Fast recession of a West Antarctic negative mass balances over the periods of their glacier. 150 to 200 m below present values. there was a Hall. anthropogenic CO2 emissions was much less than it has been from 1950 onward. Twickler.. L. Serrano.4.J. A. West millennium. New Zealand. The Holocene 12: 619-627.D. a priori. 1988. Science 281: 549-550. Meeker.1. S. Science 277: 1294-1296. middle seventeenth century. glaciers with the longest observational histories D. E. these signs should glaciers continue to lose mass. J.A.. Complexity subsequent to this time. E. Bipolar nineteenth century. as would be expected for glaciers Shepherd. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: of the Little Ice Age.000 years. 1973. Science 291: 862-864. are not experiencing any adverse effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.” Quite to the contrary.. Antarctica..D..D. Whitlow. they are twentieth century.I. Holocene glacier In a review of “the most current and fluctuations in South America and Antarctica.. as they have probably be especially evident in the second half of the done since the end of the Little Ice Age. G. 2001. observation. P..” when the magnitude of 21. the most recent of those seven millennia. as the planet emerged from of Holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice the depths of the Little Ice Age. C.

5°C colder than they were over the prior 40 years. both of which climatic transitions were totally out of line with what climate models suggest should have occurred.3 to 0. their work reveals it “has increased in length from about 3 km to its present size of about 5 km during the last c.” and they say that “the meteorological setting of non-surging Longyearbreen suggest this example of late-Holocene glacier growth represents a widespread phenomenon in Svalbard and in adjoining Arctic regions.0°C. weather stations on Novaya Zemlya. (2002). only to be followed by a nearly equivalent temperature drop four decades later. Rebounding rapidly. when its length was approximately 14. while winter temperatures were 2. reaching a second minimumlength value of approximately 13. By 1952. with temperatures rising more rapidly in the early 1920s than has been documented anywhere else before or since.75 km.” Then. growing to 14. In reviewing what was already known about the region. even now.” Climate change in Svalbard over the twentieth century was a rollercoaster ride. after which the glacier began a slow retreat that continued to about 1932. are “counter to warming of the Eurasian Arctic predicted for the twenty-first century by climate models. Their study showed a significant and accelerated postLittle Ice Age glacial retreat in the first and second decades of the twentieth century.8°C colder than they were over that earlier period. Then it wasted away more rapidly. Svalbard and “adjoining Arctic regions” are experiencing some of the lowest temperatures of the entire Holocene or current interglacial.!Sea!Ice.Observations:!Glaciers. in their words. this glacier had a length of about 14. (2005) evaluated climate dynamics and their respective impacts on high-latitude glaciers for the Archipelago of Svalbard. who concentrated on the 300-year history of the Solheimajokull outlet glacier on the southern coast of Iceland. at a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations are higher than they have likely been for millions of years. The current location of the terminus of the Longyearbreen glacier suggests that. while many tidewater glaciers actually began to advance. the glacier returned to its 1705 position by 1794. The current position of the outlet glacier terminus is by no means unusual.” In another study of the Arctic. it is about midway between its maximum and minimum positions of the past three centuries.” which they describe as a “development towards cooler conditions in the Arctic” that “may explain why the Little Ice Age glacier advance in Svalbard usually represents the Holocene maximum glacier extension. Both of these observations are at odds with what the IPCC claims about the strong warming power of atmospheric CO2 enrichment. by 1740 it had grown to 15. This maximum length was maintained for the next half-century. These glacial stabilizations and advances were attributed by the authors to observed increases in precipitation and/or decreases in temperature. For the four decades since 1961. 1100 years. (2002). particularly for the winter season. the recession of more than half of the glaciers stopped. Thereafter. Humlum et al. In fact. the authors say.!Precipitation. In 1705.8 km about 1970. show summer temperatures were 0.” which change.” Other glacier observations that run counter to climate model predictions are discussed by Mackintosh et al.!and!Sea!Level! ! Additional evidence that the Arctic’s glaciers are not responding to human-induced warming comes from the studies of Zeeberg and Forman (2001) and Mackintosh et al. it began to retreat. followed by a more gradual increase towards the end of the twentieth century. Zeeberg and Forman analyzed twentieth century changes in glacier terminus positions on north Novaya Zemlya—a Russian island located between the Barents and Kara Seas in the Arctic Ocean— providing a quantitative assessment of the effects of temperature and precipitation on glacial mass balance. who indicate there has been an expansion of glaciers in the European Arctic over the past few decades. report that “a marked warming around 1920 changed the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) at sea level within only 5 years from about -9. focusing on Spitsbergen (the Archipelago’s main island) and the Longyearbreen glacier located in its relatively dry central region at 78°13’N latitude. These observations. MAAT dropped about 4°C.” With respect to the Longyearbreen glacier. they report that “from 1957 to 1968.2 km in 1783.8 km. and during the next 50 years. the region’s glaciers had experienced between 75 percent to 100 percent of their net twentieth century retreat. whereupon it began to rapidly expand. “represents the most pronounced increase in MAAT documented anywhere in the world during the instrumental period.2 km in length.5°C to -4. report that “the recent advance (1970-1995) resulted from a combination of cooling and enhancement of precipitation. for example. by 1820 it equaled its 1740 length. Mackintosh et al.3 km by 1995. however.3 to 2. reaching a minimum length of 13. 143 . It is also interesting to note that the glacier has been growing in length since about 1970. Humlum et al.

Quaternary Science Reviews late Holocene fluctuations of Lambatungnajokull (an 20: 449-461. Hagen. documented by subglacial relict during periods of overall retreat.” Third. 2005.H.” They also 407. Lefauconnier.. A. according to Joerin et al. O.’s findings suggest that twentieth focusing on subfossil remains of wood and peat. 2002. Bradwell et al. of the major glacier recessions in the Swiss Alps occurred between about 1. Glazovsky..” and they report “there has been little overall Quaternary International 91: 39-52.. Harrison.N. retreat since the 1980s.. B. as different as one could imagine from the claim that Joerin et al.000 years ago. say that given the uncertainty of the radiocarbon dates. using Dowdeswell. can be found at http://www. when retreat averaged 20 m per Holocene climatic changes in Iceland: evidence from year. 1960s.200 years ago..5. 4.” including Skaftafellsjokull. Europe Skalafellsjokull. and Sugden. Changes in glacier The researchers also report that “the 20th-century extent on north Novaya Zemlya in the twentieth century.. Lambatungnajokull compares well with those of other similar-sized.. Second. Wiles. they determined that Additional information on this topic. nature. Fjordheim.” Thereafter. Elberling.” Zeeberg. A. The mass balance of circum-Arctic glaciers and recent climate change.F. Ommanney. P. This thermal behavior is about Holocene. where the IPCC claims CO2reverberated throughout glacial and interglacial induced global warming should be earliest and most periods as far back in time as scientists have searched strongly expressed.S. record of reconstructed glacier-front fluctuations at Holocene 11: 161-175.” once again demonstrating that two millennia. J. Koerner. report that “ice-front recession was greatest during the Mackintosh. (2005) for the Great Aletsch Glacier. Hormes.php. and Hubbard. by the glacier over the past four centuries.co2science. 1930s and 1940s. Holmlund.E.. T. Holocene Bradwell et al.. non-surging. southeast Iceland. outlet glacier of the Vatnajokull ice cap of southeast Iceland) and variations in climate.400 and 1. they say the retreat “slowed in the modeling glacier length fluctuations at Solheimajokull. they then constructed a master chronology of and was followed by a cooling that persisted through Swiss glacier fluctuations over the course of the the end of the century. correspondence between summer air temperature and Hansen. outlets of southern Vatnajokull.1..O. J. Joerin et al.. including glacier recessions have been decreasing in frequency reviews of newer publications as they become since approximately 7. Late-Holocene the rate of ice-front recession of Lambatungnajokull glacier growth in Svalbard.E. Results indicated that “there is a particularly close Humlum. 2006. glacier extent of the ‘Little Ice Age’. Of this discrepancy. D. (2006) examined glacier recessions in the over the past 200 years reflects the climatic changes Swiss Alps over the past ten thousand years based on that have occurred in southeast Iceland and the wider radiocarbon-derived ages of materials found in region. according to the data of Holzhauser et al. Dugmore. (2006) examined the link between coastal glaciation of Alaska. the last References Bradwell. J..L.C. for the phenomenon. Dugmore. 2001.H.L. and Barclay. tephrostratigraphy to date glacial landforms created R. they find “the pattern of glacier fluctuations of Lambatungnajokull Joerin et al. and Heinemeier. Fjallsjokull.J. G. A.” and that “between vegetation and living soil microbes. Jania.200 years ago. glacier fluctuations and using lichenometry and R. H.D. C. O.’s data.A.J. but between 1200 and 800 years ago.. B. A. W. “culminating in the maximum subject/a/arcticgla. Especially is this so for a highmillennial-scale oscillation of climate has northern-latitude region.. D. Bjornsson. The Little Ice Age glacier maximum in Iceland and the North Atlantic Oscillation: evidence from Lambatungnajokull. Quaternary Research 48: 1-14. P.org/ since 3. first report discovering that “alpine the warming of the globe over the last two decades of glacier recessions occurred at least 12 times during the twentieth century was unprecedented over the past the Holocene. Boreas 35: 61-80. The Holocene 15: 3961930 and 1950 this relationship is striking. K.L. 2001. S.. J. J. century summer air temperature in southeast Iceland Combining their results with earlier data of a similar and the wider region peaked in the 1930s and 1940s. and Flaajokull.J. and especially available. the two records need not be considered inconsistent with 144 . In fact. A.. geomorphological evidence to reconstruct patterns of A. 1997. and Forman.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Calkin.M.” proglacial fluvial sediments of subglacial origin. and Thomas.

resulting in a loss of just over half the glacier’s LIA surface area. Huss et al. Also in the Swiss Alps. yet there were no related increases in the long-term mass balance trends of the four glaciers. “Scandinavian glaciers [have been] growing.1.” which they report “is generally well correlated to glaciers included in the regional mass balance program (Holmlund and Jansson. and glaciers in the Caucasus are close to equilibrium. with some irregularities.!Precipitation. In addition. as evidenced by the long-term trend lines we have fit to the data. Hormes et al. It is clear that the ice loss history of the glaciers was not unduly influenced by the increase in the rate-of-rise of the air’s CO2 content that occurred between 1950 and 1970. it should be evident that the historical increase in the air’s CO2 content has had absolutely no discernable impact on the net mass balance history of Sweden’s Storglaciaren over the past two-and-a-quarter centuries.2.1. we see that between 1950 and 1970 the rate-of-rise of the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration increased by more than five-fold. there was a very slow ice wastage that lasted until 1884.!and!Sea!Level! ! each other. and from about 1970 to 2006. Consider. there has been no sign of any change in the long-term trend of Storglaciaren’s net mass balance.5.1.” Fifty years of mass balance data from the storied Storglaciaren of northwestern Sweden also demonstrate a trend reversal in the late twentieth century. (2008) examined various ice and meteorological measurements made between 1865 and 2006 in the Swiss Alps to compute the yearly mass balances of four glaciers.Observations:!Glaciers. have experienced continuous declines since the end of the Little Ice Age. Huss et al. (2007) examined “the world’s longest ongoing continuous mass-balance record” of “Storglaciaren in northernmost Sweden. The results of their computations can be seen in Figure 4. the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration experienced over the same time period. The most obvious conclusion to be drawn from these data is the fact that each of the four glaciers has decreased in size. whereupon the glacier began to experience a more rapid area reduction that continued. however. What is more. to 1990.1. (2001) report that glaciers in the Central Swiss Alps experienced two periods of readvancement. There is no compelling evidence that this 14decade-long glacial decline has had anything to do with the air’s CO2 content. suggesting that it represents northern Swedish glaciers. Ghiacciaio del Calderone.” The results of their work are depicted in Figure 4. 145 Figure 4. According to Braithwaite and Zhang (2000). their presentation of the Great Aletsch Glacier data indicates the glacier’s length at about AD 1000—when there was fully 100 ppm less CO2 in the air than there is today—was just slightly less than its length in 2002. D’Orefice et al. Not all European glaciers. If we compute the mean rate-of-rise of the air’s CO2 content from the start of the record to about 1950. materially altered by what the IPCC calls the unprecedented warming of the past few decades. one around 1920 and another as recent as 1980. where we have also plotted the contemporaneous history of the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration. 1999). In viewing the figure. Moving to northern Europe. Linderholm et al. Whereas the mean rate-of-rise of the air’s CO2 concentration over the last half-century of Storglaciaren mass balance data is fully 15 times greater than what it was over the first half-century of mass balance data (and some 40 times greater if the first and last quarter-centuries are considered). also shown in the figure.5. From the first available information on the glacier’s surface area in 1794.5. Braithwaite (2002) reports that for the period 1980-1995.!Sea!Ice. But more important is the fact that the rate of shrinkage has not accelerated over time. (2008) examined various ice and meteorological measurements made between 1865 and 2006 in an effort to compute the yearly mass balances of four glaciers. (2000) assembled and analyzed a wealth of historical data to derive a history of postLittle Ice Age (LIA) shrinkage of the surface area of the southernmost glacier of Europe. for example. and that their rate of shrinkage was also not .” while “there is no obvious common or global trend of increasing glacier melt.1.

Pecci. T. 2008. a portion of the glaciers began to slow. php. A. Determination of the seasonal mass balance of four Alpine Figure 4.. Bauder. can be found at http:// www.” Around 2000. 2005.1. The Tarfala mass balance programme. Additional information on this topic. (2005). accelerating in the late 1980s. M. Italy. (2007).J. Adapted from Linderholm et al.J. in red. in blue. P. Winkler. Salinger. The Alps with little ice: evidence for eight Holocene phases of reduced glacier extent in the Central Swiss Alps. Journal of Glaciology 45: 456-462.U.8 km observed in 1970 also did not eclipse an earlier minimum in which the glacier had decreased from a 300-year maximum length of 15. Progress in Physical Geography 26: 76-95.. report that “the distances regained and the duration of this recent advance episode are both far greater than 146 . Y. B. Mackintosh et al. D’Orefice. whereupon the glacier began to expand. and event. The Holocene 15: 789-801. and Schlüchter. R. Relationships between interannual variability of glacier mass balance and climate. M. R. and Haakensen.3 km by 1995. 2000. to which we have added the fit-by-eye descending linear relationship. glacial recession in Norway was most strongly expressed in “the middle of the 20th century. and Hock. According to Chin et al.J. More recent glacial advances have been reported in Norway. [the glaciers] began to advance.org/ subject/e/europegla. H.2 km in 1740 to a 300-year minimum of 13. central Apennines. 2002. Geografiska Annaler 87 A: 141157. M. A.. N. (2002) report a post-LIA minimum of 13. Additional evidence for post-LIA glacial expansion is provided by the history of the Solheimajokull outlet glacier on the southern coast of Iceland. R. Retreat of Mediterranean glaciers since the Little Ice Age: Case study of Ghiacciaio del Calderone.” ending during the late 1950s to early 1960s. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. maritime glaciers in both southern and northern Norway. and Alpine Research 32: 197-201. and Jansson. Recent glacier advances in Norway and New Zealand: A comparison of their glaciological and meteorological causes. and Ventura. Chinn. 2001. but they say that “most of the larger outlets with longer reaction times are continuing to advance.2 km in 1783. Several European glaciers are holding their own or actually advancing over the past quarter-century.” In considering the results of the studies summarized above.2. In a review of its length over the past 300 years.. and Zhang. “especially since 1988” and “at all [western] the past decade. Magny. P. a period of time in which the IPCC claims the earth has warmed to its highest temperature of the past thousand years. Arctic.. Funk. H. The Holocene 11: 255-265. C.” Mass balance data reveal much the same it has been in a state of mass accumulation for at least thing. M. M.co2science. Geografiska Annaler 81A: 621-631. it appears there is no correlation between atmospheric CO2 levels and glacier melting or advancement in Europe.J. 2000. Glacier mass balance: the first 50 years of international monitoring. growing to a length of about 14. References Braithwaite. The cumulative reconstructed net mass balance (bN) history of Sweden’s Storglaciaren. “after some years with more or less stationary glacier front positions. while some even ceased moving. Holmlund.5. Glacier and lake-level variations in west-central Europe over the last 3500 years. and Zumbuhl. S.. The minimum length of 13..” Chin et al. Smiraglia. Huss. Antarctic.” where “frequent above-average winter balances are a main cause of the positive net balances at the maritime glaciers during the last few decades. making the recent resurgence a significant balance of this glacier over the past 30-40 years.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! any previous readvance since the Little Ice Age there has been a significant upward trend in the mass maximum.8 km in 1970. R.” Then. C. Holzhauser. M. 1999.. 2005. Braithwaite. and the history of the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration. Hormes. Müller.

Raynaud. 2006. (2001) reviewed the most current and comprehensive research of Holocene glaciation along the northernmost portion of the Gulf of Alaska between the Kenai Peninsula and Yakutat Bay. and the Kenai. Jansson. E. However.300 years ago but was of short duration. during which time Clague et al.. J. and Hubbard. glacier equilibrium line altitudes were depressed from 150 to 200 m below present values as Alaskan glaciers also “reached their Holocene maximum extensions..L. A highresolution reconstruction of Storglaciaren mass balance back to 1780/81 using tree-ring and circulation indices. Dugmore. 2002.I. which would have placed it within the Dark Ages Cold Period. the middle seventeenth century.F. Nature 399: 429-436. M. Lipenkov. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420. and ended in the late 1800s. Quaternary International 91: 39-52. A. and the last half of the nineteenth century. G.Y. Legrand. Saltzman. tree bark. 4. the southern transitional interior straddled by the Wrangell and St. pollen. J. (1997) analyzed the mass balance histories of the 18 Arctic glaciers with the longest observational records.000 years ago and may have lasted for hundreds of years. a priori. and Stievenard. 1999. Davis.. the Little Ice Age. D. which was.000 years and probably the last 10.. chironomids. Chugach. All this evidence suggested a glacial advance that began about 3. diatoms. J. Delmotte. Dowdeswell et al. 1200. I. warming followed the most recent cold phase of this cycle is in no way unusual. A.E. similar analyses of materials obtained from pits and cores from a nearby fen. P.Observations:!Glaciers.J. say “glaciers achieved their greatest extent of the past 3. M... J. and St. Multicentury glacier fluctuations in the Swiss Alps during the Holocene. where several periods of glacial advance and retreat were noted during the past 7... Barkov. Jouzel. the third and most extensive Neoglacial interval began shortly after AD 1200. Stocker. and Chen. D. C. particularly since the Little Ice Age was likely the coldest period of the last 10. carbon and nitrogen content. (2004) derived a composite Glacier Expansion Index (GEI) for Alaska based on “dendrochronologically derived calendar dates from forests overrun by advancing ice and age estimates of moraines using tree-rings and lichens” for three climatically distinct regions—the Arctic Brooks Range. Kotlyakov.N. following the Medieval Warm Period... there was a general glacial retreat during the Medieval Warm Period that lasted for a few centuries prior to A. Joerin.. Chappellaz.1029/2007JF000803. N..D. 137Cs.. Holocene climatic changes in Iceland: evidence from modeling glacier length fluctuations at Solheimajokull. 14C).-M.. That a significant.R.000 years from the Vostok ice core. There was also evidence for a second minor phase of activity that began about 1. and Schlüchter. finding that just over 80 percent of them displayed negative mass balances over the last half of the twentieth century. T.” They say “there is no compelling indication of increasingly negative balance conditions which might.6. C. twigs and conifer needles and cones. which would have placed it within the unnamed cold period that preceded the Roman Warm Period. Basile. Delaygue.” Clague et al. Petit. L. M. Mackintosh.W. V.000 years. H.!and!Sea!Level! glaciers since 1865. Linderholm.” Wiles et al.000 years..!Precipitation. V.. Elias mountain ranges. Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: 10. M.M. (2004) documented glacier and vegetation changes at high elevations in the upper Bowser River basin in the northern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Ritz.. and by accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating of plant fossils.” These data clearly depict the regular alternation between non-CO2-forcecd multi-century cold and warm periods that is the trademark of the millennialscale oscillation of climate that reverberates throughout glacial and interglacial periods alike. Over the latter part of this record.. based on studies of the distributions of glacial moraines and trimlines. of course. Bender. Pepin. Lorius. During these latter time periods. U. A.1. 2007.. Elias coastal ranges—after 147 . Barnola. Finally.000 years. 210Pb. C. they note that “icecore records from the Canadian High Arctic islands indicate that the generally negative glacier mass balances observed over the past 50 years have probably been typical of Arctic glaciers since the end of the Little Ice Age. Quaternary Research 67: 12-20.. cores from two small lakes that were sampled for a variety of analyses (magnetic susceptibility. after which there were three major intervals of Little Ice Age glacial advance: the early fifteenth century.!Sea!Ice. The Holocene 16: 697-704. ! including wood fragments. North America The history of North American glacial activity also fails to support the claim that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are causing glaciers to melt. be expected from anthropogenically induced global warming. but by no means unprecedented. M. Alaska. treering data. Calkin et al.

which in their words “has “hockeystick” temperature history of Mann et al. concentration coincided with the great preponderance As they describe it. which they rates slowed substantially. Esper et al. induced global warming in discussing their results. and Agassiz glaciers began just after 1830.” after any additional glacial retreat.. they note “Carrara and McGimsey fields of Glacier National Park. and several modest (2002). contrast to what is suggested by the IPCC-endorsed Alaskan glacial activity. 2003. over which time the air’s CO2 concentration Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age conditions. but the next 27 ppm increase in the mid-1770s and was interrupted by only one brief air’s CO2 concentration was accompanied by little if ablation phase (~1790s) prior to the 1830s. which does not portray any Northern temperature change (Barclay et al. Pederson et al. the 1970s. 2002).” Glacier Park’s extensively studied Jackson and The first 27 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 Agassiz glaciers in northwest Montana. These findings stand in stark presumably because there was no need to do so. discovered transitioned to a cool phase [and] relatively mild that “Alaska shows ice expansions approximately summer conditions also prevailed. Wiles et al. Jomelli and Pech.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! phase that persists for ~25 yr.. for solar variability” and with the history of the report that “from the mid-1940s through the 1970s Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) derived by Cook retreat rates slowed substantially.” They made no mention of possible CO2Northern Hemisphere (Briffa and Osborn. 2001. Yoo and D’Odorico. 2002. Then. compatible with a solar mode of 1970s through the 1990s. they evidence for unprecedented or unnatural CO2-induced report that “the MBP shifts to an extreme negative 148 . separating anthropogenic from natural forcing and for 2002.” specifically. to create a 300-year history of regional another 27 ppm. Pederson et al. in Maunder. moderate retreat of behavior of the PDO. 2002. Pederson et al. 1999). they say. when the air’s CO2 concentration rose by respectively. there which they report “the mid-19th century retreat of the was little if any additional warming. be sufficiently well described within the context of The second illuminating aspect of the glacial centennial (solar) and decadal (PDO) variability record is that the vast bulk of the glacial retreat in superimposed upon the millennial-scale (non-CO2Glacier National Park occurred between 1830 and forced) variability that produces longer-lasting 1942. of course. they obtained a dual-parameter the Jackson and Agassiz glaciers. Moore et al.” forcing function that was even better correlated with The first illuminating aspect of this glacial history the Alaskan composite GEI. which is less than a third of the reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature total CO2 increase experienced since the start of anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial recession.” At that point.” From the late every 200 years.” appears to Hemispheric warming until around 1910. been shown to be primarily a record of summer (1998. said “increased understanding of solar studies from various parts of the world (Vincent and variability and its climatic impacts is critical for Vallon. 2002. Vincent. including the entire centuries.. with major glacial is that the post-Little Ice Age retreat of the Jackson advances clearly associated with the Sporer. when. from the mid-1940s through glacial accumulation and summer ablation. Gonzalez-Rouco et predicting anticipated temperature change for future al.” during which period which they compared this history of glacial activity the glaciers retreated “at rates of greater than 100 with “the 14C record preserved in tree rings corrected m/yr. “the maximum glacial of glacial retreat experienced since the start of the advance of the Little Ice Age coincides with a warming that marked the “beginning of the end” of sustained period of positive MBP that began in the the Little Ice Age. “instrumental variability. and several modest compared with historic retreats and advances of advances were documented. (2004) used tree-ring rose by only 27 ppm. Jackson and Agassiz glaciers then coincides with a Something other than the historic rise in the air’s period marked by strong negative MBP. 1997.” for marine and terrestrial reservoir effects as a proxy Continuing with their history. harmony with the findings of a number of other Wiles et al. advances were documented as the North Pacific As a result of their efforts. report that “retreat glacial Mass Balance Potential (MBP). and by merging this cycle with the cyclical conditions resulting in continuous. The historical (1981) indicate a modest retreat (~3-14 m/yr) for both behavior of North America’s glaciers provides no glaciers until approximately 1917. 2004).” From about CO2 content was responsible for the disappearing ice 1850 onward.. 1999). the de Vries 208-year solar records indicate a shift in the PDO back to warmer cycle. and Dalton solar minima.

D. The Holocene 9: 79-84. Cook. Montana... Bjornsson. L. B. A. Hutchinson. southern Alaska. 2002. Villalba. 1997. M. Cook. 2002. began to retreat.. M. The mass balance of circum-Arctic glaciers and recent climate change. Fluctuations des bilans de masse des glaciers des Alpes francaises depuis le debut du 20em siecle au regard des variations climatiques.C. Bradley.E. G. lichenometry.T. Lowfrequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Calkin.L. R. J. R.. and D’Odorico.. and Pech.Observations:!Glaciers. J.D.A. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 449-461. H.M. Nature 420: 401-403. J.org/ subject/n/northamgla. F. and Graumlich. and Hughes. Additional information on this topic. Quaternary Research 48: 1-14. P. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. B. P. A 1119year tree-ring-width chronology from western Prince William Sound. D. Late Holocene environmental change at treeline in the northern Coast Mountains.co2science.7. Moore. M. 2002.C. J.R. American Geophysical Union 83: S133. and Arenales glaciers on the eastern side of the Hielo Patagonico Norte in southern Chile. 1997. von Storch.!and!Sea!Level! ! global warming over any part of the twentieth century.!Precipitation. H. and Vallon. Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years. Vincent. and Schweingruber.E. Glazovsky... Paris. can be found at http://www. Blowing hot and cold. G. pp. J.. S. and Thomas. Harrison. T. USA.. and Alverson. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. Mathewes.. K. J.D. “from their Little Ice Age maximum positions” somewhere between 1850 and 1880.1029/2004GL020050.W. Bradley. Ayotte. Wiles. Yoo. and Barclay. Glacier National Park. British Columbia.. The late neoglacial histories of the Agassiz and Jackson Glaciers. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. L.E.R. Journal of Hydrology 268: 100-112.W. and Osborn.F.J.G. Effects of the Little Ice Age on avalanche boulder tongues in the French Alps (Massif des Ecrins). P. Calkin. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences. M. with retreat increasing since the 149 .E. Wiles. and aerial photography to date nineteenth and twentieth century fluctuations of the Arco.. 4. Clague. G. Trends and fluctuations in the dates of ice break-up of lakes and rivers in Northern Europe: the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Mann. Colonia. Arctic and Alpine Research 13: 183-196. References Barclay. R. Ommanney. EOS: Transactions. E. J.. Briffa. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 4-12. Vincent.O.J. P.J. P.. Holdsworth.E..1029/2003GL018264. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Climate change in the North Pacific region over the past three centuries. Esper. Carrara. Influence of climate change over the 20th century on four French glacier mass balances. in the words of the two researchers. Meteorological controls on glacier mass-balance: empirical relations suggested by Sarennes glaciers measurements (France).. Koerner. P. Jania. Walker. 1998.. V.B. Fagre. C. 2002. 2004.. Dowdeswell. well before the air’s CO2 content began to rise at a significant rate.. This work revealed that these glaciers. K. Eriksson. Reconstructions of Pacific decadal variability from long tree-ring records.. Holmlund. and McGimsey.. R. Hagen. 2004.H. G.R.S. and Walker. Science 295: 2250-2253. P. 2002.. Lefauconnier.. Century-scale solar variability and Alaskan temperature change over the past millennium.1029/2004GL019770. E. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. G. 1999. Journal of Glaciology 43: 131-137.. and Zorita. Montana. D. 4956.K.S. Gray. They also note that the trend continued “through the first half of the 20th century with various still-stands and oscillations between 1925 and 1960 . 1981.. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 29: 553-564. C.K. Science 295: 2227-2228. M. 2003. D’Arrigo.J..T. Vincent. F. France. C. G. I. W..C. Canada. 2004. Wohlfarth. and Barclay. E. and Hughes. Mann.E. 2004. I. Holocene coastal glaciation of Alaska. South America Harrison and Winchester (2000) used dendrochronology. 2002. Colloque SHF variations climatiques et hydrologie.php. Jomelli.K.H.S.J. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Nature 392: 779-787. D.J.R. Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 2413-2431. uncertainties. Gonzalez-Rouco. R.!Sea!Ice. Pederson.1. and Calkin. 1999. Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park. 2001. plus four others on the western side of the ice field. R. R..C. and limitations. R. 2001.. Wiles. M. C.

2002) which coincides with an abrupt Chile.g. after when glaciers decreased in size and extent. during the cold interval that preceded the Roman Koch and Kilian (2005) mapped and dated. that Norte and the Hielo Patagonico Sur. The advancement: “4500-4200. Prior to marked readvance in the 1920s that nearly reached then. retreat was more pronounced than that of the one at Glasser et al. they note Chile (e. Mercer. 2001). Winchester et al. 1997). Savoskul.” central Asia the available evidence shows that 150 ..” and 1700 (e.” and that Kilian. 1988. According to their findings. it would Peruvian Cordillera Blanca and Francou et al. Grove. a number of moraine of evidence for global climatic change around this systems of Glaciar Lengua and neighboring glaciers time (e. by Warm Period. Wasson and of Gran Campo Nevado in the southernmost Andes of Claussen. 3600-3300.g. Georges (2004) constructed a twentieth century Glasser et al. This evidence “the beginning of the century was characterized by a indicates that the most recent glacial advances in glacier recession of unknown extent. after which they compared their results with decrease in solar activity.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! glaciers underwent significant recession at this time 1960s. 1998. which is a very other locations. Koch and their study “further supports this scenario. Finally. Glasser et al. suggest that variations in solar irradiance are more in the Patagonian Andes “the culmination of the Little important as a driving force in variations in climate Ice Age glacier advances occurred between AD 1600 than previously believed. Rothlisberger. which is the largest glaciated area within the major ice fields of Patagonia: the Hielo Patagonico tropics.000 and 5. followed by a Patagonia occurred during the Little Ice Age. 1996).” With 1920s were almost equivalent to those experienced respect to the glacial advancements that occurred there during the depths of the Little Ice Age. pattern can be observed in other parts of southern Luckman and Villalba.” Northern Hemisphere. his graph of the ice advances and retreats each lasting hundreds of years 14 area lost in both time periods suggests that the rate of going back to sometime between 6. Kuylenstierna et al. they note the most extensive one during the Holocene for this that “in areas peripheral to the North Atlantic and in ice cap. other scientists that reveal a similar pattern of cyclical Georges is quite at ease talking about the Little glacial activity over the preceding millennia in several Ice Age south of the equator in Peru. in Georges words.g. This history reveals.” Then came the “very temperatures known as the Medieval Warm Period. they say they constitute “part of a body dendrochronological means. say that “a similar (Warren and Sugden. this warm which there was a period of quiescence that was interlude was in turn preceded by an era of followed by an “intermediate retreat from the midpronounced glacial activity that is designated the 1970s until the end of the century. documented cycles of blacial the end of the century. 2300-2000.. 2001).” to which we would also add the from their observations at Glaciar Lengua and findings of Kaser and Georges (1997) for the neighboring glaciers at Gran Campo Nevado. glacial extensions of the Cordillera Blanca in the late 1300-1000 14C years BP and AD 1600-1850. 2001.” and they say that this those of researchers who studied the subject in other observation was what “led van Geel et al. (2003) appear that “the ‘Little Ice Age’ advance was possibly for the Bolivian Cordillera Real.000 C wastage in the 1930s-1940s was twice as great as that years before present (BP). (2004) described a large body of history of glacial fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca evidence related to glacier fluctuations in the two of Peru. their data indicate an interval of higher the Little Ice Age maximum. (2000) to parts of South America.. 1993. Immediately to the east of the Hielo long way from the lands that border the North Patagonico Sur in the Rio Guanaco region of the Atlantic Ocean. with respect to the most recent recession Aniya.” In addition. for example. Grosjean et al. 1986.” Dark Ages Cold Period. which was also preceded by In comparing the two periods of glacial wasting. Likewise. they report that Wenzens where the IPCC is willing to admit the existence of (1999) detected five distinct periods of glacial this chilly era of the planet’s climatic history.. They cited the works of of last two decades of the twentieth century.” but “various glaciers at Hielo of Hielo Patogonico Norte outlet glaciers from their Patagonico Norte and Hielo Patagonico Sur also late historic moraine limits at the end of the formed prominent moraines around 1870 and 1880 nineteenth century.” In fact.. 1996.” just as has been observed at many sites in the (cf. a period of higher temperatures and retreating glaciers Georges says that “the intensity of the 1930s-1940s that is denoted the Roman Warm Period. which is the only region on earth Precordillera.. strong” 1930s-1940s glacial mass shrinkage. 1970.

Polissar et al. and Aniya. H.. from which they were able to deduce contemporary histories of regional temperature and precipitation.” With respect to these latter ominous remarks. and Sicart. Arctic. 2000. A late-Holocene (2600 BP) glacial advance in the south-central Andes (29°S). M. 16°S. Changes in the equilibrium line altitude in the tropical Cordillera Blanca 151 . the United States. can be found at http://www. M. and Winchester. and C/N ratios derived from the sediment records of two Venezuelan watersheds. Peru. !13CTOC.php. The Holocene 6: 247-252. they write that “four glacial advances occurred between AD 1250 and 1810. and Venezuela— write that “comparison of the Little Ice Age history of glacier activity with reconstructions of solar and volcanic forcing suggests that solar variability is the primary underlying cause of the glacier fluctuations. which have themselves been significantly lower than those of all four prior interglacials.. J. Vuille.!Sea!Ice. (2006) developed continuous decadal-scale histories of glacier activity and moisture balance in that part of the tropical Andes (the Cordillera de Merida) over the past millennium and a half. and Alpine Research 35: 100-107. Schreier. London. Antarctic.. Late Pleistocene and Holocene palaeoclimate and glacier fluctuations in Patagonia. Tropical climate change recorded by a glacier in the central Andes during the last decades of the 20th century: Chacaltaya. we note that whereas Polissar et al. Grosjean. Harrison. Nineteenth. N. glaciers were absent from all but the highest peaks in the Cordillera de Merida. northern Chile. The Little Ice Age. and Veit. B. V. 1998. 1997.’s linking of significant climate changes with solar radiation variability is a factual finding of their work. Hielo Patagonico Norte. M.” In discussing their findings. their latter statements with respect to hypothesized CO2induced increases in down-welling thermal radiation ! are speculations that need not follow from what they learned.” which indicates that warmer-than-present temperatures are the norm for this part of the planet.1029/2002JD002473. What is more.” and (3) “solar and volcanic forcing are uncorrelated between AD 1520 and 1650. Winchester. Arctic.2 ± 1. S. Spain. Mendoza. P. C. Polissar et al.Observations:!Glaciers. Holocene variations of Ameghino Glacier.co2science.” and that “profound climatic impacts can be predicted for tropical montane regions.” and that “temperature declines of -3. Antarctic.’s acknowledgement that “during most of the past 10. 20th-century glacier fluctuations in the tropical Cordillera Blanca..4°C and precipitation increases of ~20% are required to produce the observed glacial responses.” (2) “spectral analysis shows significant peaks at 227 and 125 years in both the irradiance and magnetic susceptibility records. atmospheric CO2 concentrations were much lower during all of those much warmer periods. !15NTN. UK. Glasser. together with ancillary data obtained from other studies that had been conducted in the same general region. Wagnon.000 years. which they obtained from cores retrieved from Lakes Mucubaji and Blanca. The international team of scientists—representing Canada. Bolivia. Kaser. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 10.” In addition.. total organic carbon (TOC). closely matching the de Vreis and Gleissberg oscillations identified from solar irradiance reconstructions.!Precipitation. southern Patagonia. Routledge. G.. 2004. magnetic susceptibility. 2003. Chile.. V. coincident with solar-activity minima. say their results “suggest considerable sensitivity of tropical climate to small changes in radiative forcing from solar irradiance variability. The Holocene 8: 473-479. and the magnetic susceptibility record follows the solar-irradiance reconstruction during this interval.E. 1988. M. 1996. Additional information on this topic. Harrison. and Georges. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.!and!Sea!Level! Working with biogenic silica. S.. J.org/ subject/s/southamgla. Georges.A. J. M. Global and Planetary Change 43: 79-101. total nitrogen (TN). Geyh. 2004.and twentieth-century glacier fluctuations and climatic implications in the Arco and Colonia Valleys.” because (1) “the peaks and troughs in the susceptibility records match fluctuations of solar irradiance reconstructed from 10Be and !14C measurements.” The six scientists also say their findings imply “even greater probable responses to future anthropogenic forcing. Francou. C. Another point worth noting in this regard is Polissar et al. B.F. H. and that any significant warming that might yet occur in this region (as well as most of the rest of the world) would mark only a return to more typical Holocene (or current interglacial) temperatures. and Alpine Research 32: 55-63. Messerli. References Aniya. Grove.M.

both parameters continued to show increases over the sum of the two periods (1978-1996). Chile. and Kilian.. Modern and Little Ice Age glaciers in “humid” and “arid” areas of the Tien Shan. G.5.C. NY.. The Holocene 15: 20-28.7(±0. Koch.B. Assessing the synchroneity of glacier fluctuations in the western Cordillera of the Americas during the last millennium. Quaternary Research 51: 238-247..2. 2006. Interhemispheric Climate Linkages. 1993. Academic Press. and Claussen.1. O. C. V. (Eds. C. Bezada.” Updating the analysis two years later for the period November 1978 through 152 . and season length since at least 1978. 2002. G.R. Antarctic Utilizing Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data obtained from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) for the period December 1987-December 1996. noting that “it has been suggested that the Antarctic sea ice may show high sensitivity to any anthropogenic increase in temperature. V. A. 1997. V. J. In addition.J. H. are supported by other studies. Recent retreat Glacier Nef. Winchester.H. Earth systems models: a test using the mid-Holocene in the Southern Hemisphere. USA. C. In this section we analyze Antarctic and Arctic sea ice trends as reported in the scientific literature.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! (Peru) between 1930 and 1950 and their spatial variations. and Villalba. and when they combined their results with results for the preceding period of 1978-1987.S. J. Hanna (2001) published an updated analysis of Antarctic sea ice cover based on SSM/I data for the period October 1987-September 1999. Annals of Glaciology 24: 344-349. a “much larger area of the Southern Ocean experienced an overall lengthening of the sea-ice season … than experienced a shortening. Arctic and Alpine Research 25: 316-331. Polissar.S. i. Rothlisberger.E. Aarau. The Holocene 10: 659-664.” and that most climate models predict that “any rise in surface temperature would result in a decrease in sea ice coverage. and Warren. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 103: 8937-8942.J. Luckman. Late-Holocene glacier variations in the Cordillera Darwin. Renssen. Davos. In: Kaennel Dobbertin.). Wolfe. 10 000 Jahre Gletschergeschichte der Erde. 2001.5)% in area. M. and Braker. D. J. 4.. Annals of Glaciology 24: 142-147. and Schuurmans.U. P. Central Asia: two different patterns of fluctuation.” Parkinson (2002) utilized satellite passivemicrowave data to calculate and map the length of the sea-ice season throughout the Southern Ocean for each year of the period 1979-1999. B. and Holmlund. We revisit the issue of ice melting in much greater depth in Section 4.3)% in extent and 6. Koch. Quaternary Science Reviews 21: 819-824. Chilean Patagonia. finding that although there are opposing regional trends. they determined that the 1990s also experienced increases in the length of the sea ice season.. Climatic change in Chile at around 2700 B. Watkins and Simmonds’ findings. Watkins and Simmonds (2000) analyzed temporal trends in different measures of the sea ice that surrounds Antarctica.E. Savoskul. 2001. M. finding the serial sea ice data depict “an ongoing slight but significant hemispheric increase of 3. 1986. pp. C. that Southern Ocean sea ice has increased in area. F. R. Rull. Mercer.R. 4. American Journal of Science 269: 1-25. 2005.L. Verlag Sauerlander. Gran Campo Nevado. 2000.e. Arctic. P. The Patagonian icefields: a glaciological review. Fluctuations of outlet and valley glaciers in the southern Andes (Argentina) during the past 13.6(±1.P. van Geel. 1999.. R. Kuylenstierna. R. and Bradley. and global evidence for solar forcing: a hypothesis. 12. Solar modulation of Little Ice Age climate in the tropical Andes.2. Heusser.. Dendroglaciological evidence of Little Ice Age glacier fluctuations at the Gran Campo Nevado. M. p..H. The Holocene 6: 353-358.” Contrary to what one would expect on the basis of these predictions. Wenzens.J. R.000 years. Variations of some Patagonian glaciers since the Late-Glacial: II. Sea Ice A number of claims have been made that CO2induced global warming is melting sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic and that such melting will accelerate as time passes. New York. southernmost Chile. Rosqvist. Warren. and Kilian. R.) International Conference on Tree Rings and People. dated by lichenometry and dendrochronology. O. “Little Ice Age” glacier fluctuations. Abbott. Switzerland. Tierra del Fuego. the two scientists observed statistically significant increases in both sea ice area and sea ice extent over the period studied.J.. In: Markgraf. 1970. Wasson. J. 2001. M. Antarctic and Alpine Research 33: 266-273. extent. and Sugden. 119-140. southernmost Chile. B. Harrison. 1996. (Ed. S.P.

37 percent per decade.” Comiso and Nishio (2008) set out to provide updated and improved estimates of trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover for the period extending from November 1978 to December 2006. which they combined with data for the period 1978-1987 that were derived from space-based passive microwave radiometers carried aboard earlier Nimbus-5.190 square km per year. Parkinson (2004) reported a linear increase in 12-month running means of Southern Ocean sea ice extent of 12. based on the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SSMR) and SSM/I for the spring-summer period of November/December/ January. 20.0 percent over the first 10 years of the record.801 km²/yr).” noting that the “continually increasing sea ice extent over the Antarctic Southern Polar Ocean. or by 1. finding that sea ice extent about the continent increased at a mean rate of 0.011 degree of latitude per year. Among other things. where the sea ice extent trends seem to be near zero. (2004) used sea ice concentration data retrieved from the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer on the Nimbus 7 satellite and the spatial sensor microwave/imager on several defense meteorological satellites to develop a quality-controlled history of Antarctic sea ice variability covering the period 1979-2002. They found that “overall.!Precipitation. the total Antarctic sea ice extent (the cumulative area of grid boxes covering at least 15% ice concentrations) has shown an increasing trend (~4. Zwally et al. Yuan and Martinson (2000) analyzed Special SSM/I data together with data derived from brightness temperatures measured by the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer. as well as five longitudinal sectors emanating from the south pole: 20°E-90°E.380 ± 1. Vyas et al.730 km2 per year. exceeding the 95% confidence level. (2003) analyzed data from the multichannel scanning microwave radiometer carried aboard India’s OCEANSAT-1 satellite for the period June 1999-May 2001. Cavalieri et al. they report that the sea ice extent of the entire Southern Ocean increased by 11. sea ice expansion also provides a mechanism for reduced CO2 release by the Southern Ocean and lower glacial atmospheric CO2. to 2. is paradoxical in the global warming scenario resulting from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. which includes different states of the Antarctic Oscillation and several ENSO events.Observations:!Glaciers. Likewise. they determined that “the total Antarctic sea ice area (the cumulative area of the ocean actually covered by at least 15% ice concentrations) has increased significantly by ~13.98 ± 0. Liu et al. along with the observed decreasing trends in Antarctic ice surface temperature (Comiso.” Three papers on Antarctic sea ice were published in 2008. and 30% ice concentrations (used to define the ice extent and area). They observed that the variability of monthly sea ice extent declined from 4. based on data obtained from the Advanced Microwave 153 .43 percent per decade.860 ± 3.” Elderfield and Rickaby (2000) concluded that the sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean during glacial periods may have been as much as double the coverage of modern winter ice.05 x 106 km² per decade between 1977 and 2002. and 60°W-20°E. Results indicated that “the sea ice concentration shows slight increasing trends in most sectors.043 M km² per year. Laine (2008) determined 1981-2000 trends of Antarctic sea-ice concentration and extent. (2003) extended prior satellite-derived Antarctic sea ice records several years by bridging the gap between Nimbus 7 and earlier Nimbus 5 satellite datasets with National Ice Center digital sea ice data.720 square km per year.7 percent over the last 10 years.181 ± 4. suggesting that “by restricting communication between the ocean and atmosphere.” In a somewhat similar study. particularly over the last decade.” In addition.10 ± 0. and DMSP satellites to study secular trends in sea ice extent about Antarctica over the period 1978-2001. 2000) over the last two decades. 160°E-130°W. they concluded that “the increasing trend in the sea ice extent over the Antarctic region may be slowly accelerating in time. after which they evaluated total sea ice extent and area trends by means of linear least-squares regression.!Sea!Ice.!and!Sea!Level! ! December 2002. 130°W-60°W.26 ± 0.295 km²/yr. (2002) also utilized passivemicrowave satellite data to study Antarctic sea ice trends. These analyses were carried out for the continent as a whole. Nimbus-7. while sea ice area increased by nearly the same amount: 10. In fact. Their work revealed that the mean rate of change of sea ice extent for the entire Antarctic region over this period was an increase of 0.” Laine also reports that “the Antarctic region as a whole and all the sectors separately show slightly positive spring-summer albedo trends. they determined that the mean trend in the latitudinal location of the Antarctic sea ice edge over the prior 18 years was an equatorward expansion of 0.” noting that “the upward trends in the total ice extent and area are robust for different cutoffs of 15. or by 0. Over the 20-year period 1979-1998. 90°E-160°E.

SSM/I. Elderfield. F. Dash. References Cavalieri. and Rickaby.M. 4. it is difficult to identify a change in either the extent or thickness of Arctic sea ice that could be attributed to the increase in temperature that has been predicted to result from the burning of fossil fuels. P. R.C. the SSM/I. 2002. and Parkinson. rate than it did over the 1979-1998 period. Cavalieri and Parkinson (2008) derived new linear Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. D. Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E).G. 1981-2000. and Nishio.A.4 percent per decade.J. Their findings indicate that sea ice extent and area in Laine. P. and Pandey. Both sets of results indicate a extent over the antarctic region based on OCEANSAT-1 “tightening up” of the two relationships: Over the last MSMR observations. Nature 405: 305-310. H.org/ extent variability and its global connectivity.K. J.2 and +1. Bhandari. 2008. Antarctic sea ice available.1029/2000JC000733. Khare. C. 2003. and Martinson. A. and Simmonds. Zwally.L.2. Journal of Climate 13: 1674-1696. C.L. C.9 ± 0.2 ± 0. C. from 0.1029/2007JC004257. can be found at http://www.3 albedo and temperature change. trends of Antarctic sea ice extent and area based on Parkinson.7 percent per decade and 1. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: 10.” noting the latter trend is linkages: insights revealed from models and observations. The task is further complicated because many of the records that do exist contain only a few years to a few decades of data. 2004. 2008. Geophysical Research SMMR... 2000). Mitra. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.J. J.C. years (1979-1998) to 28 years (1979-2006)” by Interpretation of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. 2004. 2002. Watkins. 154 . D. Trends in the length of the Southern satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer data.B. (2002) from 20 Liu.96 ± 0. S. M.7 ± 0.1029/2003GL018031. trend increased slightly.61 percent per decade to 1. and Martinson. D. N. and the winter 1998. Antarctic Science 16: 387-400. Parkinson. Against this backdrop of multiple causation and timeframe variability. 2000.Y. J. Polar Pathfinder data. Comiso. Variability of Antarctic sea ice 1979-1998.co2science.php. from the 20Parkinson. significant at the 95 percent confidence level. Oceanic Cd/P ratio and nutrient utilization in the glacial Southern Ocean. trend were 1.1029/2007JC004564.. subject/s/seaiceantarctic. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 10. E. Current trends in with the former parameter increasing at a more rapid Antarctic sea ice: The 1990s impact on a short climatology. time series reported by Zwally et al. Comiso. and Vinnikov.. Southern Ocean sea ice and its wider to 28-year period. Remote Sensing of Environment 112: A study that “extends the analyses of the sea ice 646-667. International Journal of Remote eight years of the study period.L. 1979-99..5 A. Trends in the sea ice cover using enhanced and compatible AMSR-E. Journal of Climate 13: 1697-1717. and they yield different trends depending on the period of time studied. J.2. X. I. V. Cavalieri. 2003. and Gloersen. On the secular trends in sea ice percent per decade.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Hanna. coincident with ENSO. Additional information on this topic. Parkinson.C. 1979-2006. 2000. Annals of Glaciology 34: Results indicate “the total Antarctic sea ice extent 435-440. where the data from the last two instruments Letters 28: 1595-1598. Ocean sea-ice season. Variability and trends in Antarctic surface temperatures from in situ and satellite infrared measurements. Corresponding numbers for the Antarctic sea ice area Vyas. Antarctic sea ice variability and trends. D.C.K. including reviews of newer publications as they become Yuan. 2008. Antarctic ice sheet and sea ice regional the Antarctic grew by +0..E. area of Antarctic sea ice have continued to increase. 30-Year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability. N. were adjusted to be consistent with the AMSR-E data. both the extent and Sensing 24: 2277-2287. C.0 ± 0. from AVHRR percent per decade.L. Anomalous peak in Antarctic sea-ice area. Cavalieri.2 ± 0. Comiso. Curry.J. and SMMR data.L.M.1029/2003GL018732. K. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: 10. respectively... Journal of Climate 13: 4441-4451.J. J. 2001.G. H. D. varying simultaneously on a number of different timescales for a number of different reasons (Venegas and Mysak. 2000. Arctic Arctic climate is incredibly complex. 2000.

(1999) analyzed Arctic sea ice extent over the period 1978-1998 and found it to have decreased by about 14 percent.” as was also suggested by Vinnikov et al. sea ice area in the Arctic may have actually increased. In the autumn of 1996. northern Baffin Bay. that low frequency oscillations are what the data actually reveal. it is readily evident that the decline in this parameter did not occur smoothly over the 20-year period of study. and according to their own data.” indicative of the ease with which significant decadal trends are often reversed in this part of the world. or whether they are simply ephemeral expressions of natural low frequency oscillations. In another study. In Baffin BayDavis Straight and northern Baffin Bay. Hudson Strait. it could be argued from their data that from 1990/91 onward. With respect to the context of these open-water declines.” as small as it then was.4 percent per year. it may lead to a markedly different ice regime in the Arctic. however. who utilized satellite-derived data of sea ice extent to calculate changes in this parameter for the periods 1979-1990 and 1990-1999. in this case at a mean rate of 0. 3896 x 103 km2 in 2001. conclude that their 14-year analysis of multiyear ice dynamics is “insufficient to project long-term trends. with the upward trends at all microhabitats studied ranging from 0. (1999).6 percent per decade.2 to 0. representing an increase in sea ice coverage of 9 percent over a third of a decade. the open-water trend was downward. they note that “a large ! multiyear ice recruitment of over 10 km fully replenished the previous 8-year decline in total area. after which the trends they documented were “related to the relative importance of each wintering microhabitat for eight marine indicator species and potential impacts on winter success and survival were examined.” They add that the replenishment “was followed by an accelerated and compensatory decline during the subsequent 4 years. for example. essentially all of the drop it experienced occurred abruptly over a single period of not more than three years (87/8890/91) and possibly only one year (89/90-90/91).” It should be noted in this regard.Observations:!Glaciers. Hudson Bay. total January multiyear ice area declined at a mean rate of 1. that assessment is highly debatable and possibly false.2. He reports that in seven of the nine regions into which he divided the Arctic for his analysis. In viewing their plots of sea ice area. Furthermore.” They also conclude it is insufficient to reveal “whether recent declines in multiyear ice area and thickness are indicators of anthropogenic exacerbations to positive feedbacks that will lead the Arctic to an unprecedented future of reduced ice cover. Belchansky et al. and such behavior is not what one would predict from a gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration.” Belchansky et al. Kwok calculated the coverage of Arctic MY sea ice at the beginning of each year of the study was 3774 x 103 km2 in 2000. and Lancaster Sound over a 23-year interval (1979-2001) using remotely sensed microwave measurements of sea-ice extent.!Precipitation. Support for this assessment of the data is found in Kwok (2004). Baffin BayDavis Strait.!Sea!Ice. and the record of ice export from satellite passive microwave observations” for the years 1999-2003. on the other hand. indicates “an ice cover in transition. and at a mean rate for all open-water microhabitats studied of fully 1 percent per decade. More questions are raised Parkinson (2000b). Reading Johannessen et al. MY fractions from RADARSAT. In fact.’s assessment of the situation. and Hudson Strait showed small increasing trends in the fraction of open-water. Heide-Jorgensen and Laidre (2004) examined changes in the fraction of openwater found within various pack-ice microhabitats of Foxe Basin. and 4122 x 103 km2 in 2003. while the trend in all Lancaster Sound open-water microhabitats was also downward. However.” In addition. they learned that 75 percent of the interannual variation in January multiyear sea area “was explained by linear regression on two atmospheric parameters: the previous winter’s Arctic Oscillation index as a proxy to melt duration and the previous year’s average sea level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait as a proxy to annual ice export. Extent Johannessen et al. (2004) report that from 1988 to 2001. Heide-Jorgensen and Laidre report that 6 2 155 . including second year) ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean using QuikSCAT backscatter.7 percent per decade.” and that “if this apparent transformation continues.2. who estimated “the time-varying perennial ice zone (PIZ) coverage and construct[s] the annual cycles of multiyear (MY. one is left with the impression that a relatively consistent and persistent reduction in the area of Arctic sea ice is in progress.” Results of the analysis indicate that Foxe Basin.!and!Sea!Level! 4. however. In another study. 4475 x 103 km2 in 2002. This finding led them to suggest that “the balance of evidence. Hudson Bay.1. the “sign of the trend reversed from the 1979-1990 period to the 1990-1999 period.

and warmer temperatures during the turn of the century. 2000a. recent trends in Arctic sea ice cover historical data for the observed time of ice break-up “can be viewed out of context because their brevity between 1529 and 1990 in the northern port of Riga. Trend analyses revealed that the ice derived Arctic sea ice records several years back in tongue has exhibited no statistically significant time by bridging the gap between Nimbus 7 and change in any of the parameters studied over the past earlier Nimbus 5 satellite datasets via comparisons 20 years.05 x 106 km2 per decade. 1999 (Parkinson et al. following 600 years. however. By utilizing Greenland coast.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! extent there has not yet emerged from the range of “increasing trends in sea ice coverage in Baffin Bay conditions characteristic of the Little Ice Age.b. developed a 1.” suggesting that sea ice He notes. Western Kara Seas). Iceland.30 ± 0. 1999. or Omstedt and Chen (2001) obtained a proxy record of at a rate that was 20 percent greater than the fullthe annual maximum extent of sea ice in the region of period rate. extent) by examining the situation. Barents. cooling with a during the eleventh through fourteenth centuries. Norwegian. a tendency toward earlier ice break-up of 15 they determined that after a period of reduced sea ice days/century. 2000. the results of these studies are not the end (2001) reconstructed an even longer record of sea ice of the story. cooling with a tendency toward later ice breakbased on sea-salt records from an ice core obtained up of five days/century.300 km 2003). In doing so. they were 2003). at least during the last 50 years. rate of decline of 0.” due to the warmer of 0. For the final (twentieth) century On the other hand. and (4) 1920-1990. warming with from the Penny Ice Cap on Baffin Island. with a record minimum value in 2002. they report that “despite (the Greenland.000-year record of spring earlier ice break-up of nine days/century. who used satellite imagery to analyze and Parkinson. however. nor are Latvia. Deser et al. they found a mean In another study of Arctic climate variability. which is located within the region of study. In addition Serreze et al. melting during the latter part of the twentieth century. shortened period from 1979-2002. that “nearly half of this reduction 156 .” (1) 1530-1640..” They additionally note that “similar trends in and an aerial coverage of as much as 330. (2001). with slightly lower increases of 2. they reported finding greater variability in sea ice These results could readily be construed to extent in the colder 1720-1877 period than in the indicate an increasingly greater rate of Arctic sea ice warmer 1878-1997 period. tendency toward later ice break-up of 12 enhanced sea ice conditions prevailed during the days/century. (2001) have described duration (and. they found that a significant extent during the passive microwave era culminated decline in sea ice occurred around 1877. in a study of the Nordic Seas of this period.8 surface air temperature data from Jan Mayen Island. For the ice tongue for the past 75 years revealed the ice newly extended period of 1972-2002. In determined that the downward trend in Arctic sea ice analyzing this record. The long date-of-ice-break-up time series was the records sufficiently long to clearly establish a best described by a fifth-order polynomial. (2003) extended prior satellitepast 75 years.. Jevrejeva However. (2002) the Baltic Sea over the period 1720-1997.” ‘Little Ice Age’ variability. and Davis Strait (resulting in declining open-water) In an adjacent sector of the Arctic. Parkinson and Cavalieri. As Grumet et al. which climate trend. 2002) quantify a number of attributes of the Odden ice and comparable significant increases have been tongue—a winter ice-cover phenomenon that occurs detected back to 1953 (Stern and Heide-Jorgensen.36 ± 0.” able to infer the behavior of this phenomenon over the Cavalieri et al. while for the temperatures that prevailed at that time. percent per decade (Stern and Heide-Jorgensen. are within April has decreased by 33% over the past 135 years. therefore. this latter were as high as 7. they determined phenomenon to have been “a relatively smaller that Arctic sea ice extent had declined at a mean rate feature several decades ago.000 square sea ice have also been detected locally along the West kilometers—over the period 1979-1998. (2) 1640sea ice conditions in the Arctic region of Baffin Bay 1770. does not account for interdecadal variability.” identified four distinct periods of climatic transition: In an effort to overcome this “short-sightedness. In addition.03 x 106 km2 per decade. but the proxy reconstruction of the Odden with National Ice Center digital sea ice data.5 percent per decade between 1979period of time was also studied by Comiso et al. Vinje (2001) determined that sea-ice conditions in the Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea “the extent of ice in the Nordic Seas measured in region. in the Greenland Sea with a length of about 1. warming with a tendency toward Grumet et al. Also at work in the Baltic Sea region. (3) 1770-1920.

2001) and the spatially broader Arctic Oscillation (e.1%.. therefore. based on newly available long-term Russian observations. in the words of Parkinson (2000b). East Siberian. thickening of about 10 cm per year was also observed. are not statistically significant. (3) a ‘see-saw’ in winter temperatures between Greenland and northern Europe (Rogers and van Loon. except for the Chukchi Sea.!Precipitation. “that during decades to come … the retreat of ice cover may change to an expansion.Observations:!Glaciers. which they analyzed for evidence of long-term trend and oscillatory behavior. If the historical rise in the air’s CO2 content has been responsible for the historical decrease in sea-ice extent. Bamber et al. (2002) found “smaller than expected” trends in sea ice cover that. “provides a strong rationale for considerable caution when extrapolating into the future the widely reported decreases in the Arctic ice cover over the past few decades or when attributing the decreases primarily to global warming. and (4) an interdecadal Arctic climate cycle (Mysak et al. 2000. who used high-accuracy ice-surface elevation measurements (Krabill et al. 2000.” However.” while “to the northeast of this region. when any anthropogenic influence is believed to have still been negligible. “the possibility of close connections between the sea ice cover and major oscillatory patterns in the atmosphere and oceans. Proshutinsky et al.3%. Johannessen et al.” Likewise. 1999). Vinje. “increased in elevation by an average of 50 cm per year between 1996 and 2002.. “a similar shrinkage of ice cover was observed in the 1920s-1930s. on the island of Nordaustlandet in northeastern Svalbard—to evaluate ice cap elevation changes between 1996 and 2002. Laptev. in this regard. Greenland... as they immediately caution.” a caution with which we heartily agree. This in turn suggests that the increase in the air’s CO2 content over the past 135 years has likely had nothing to do with the concomitant decline in sea-ice cover. +0. whereas the second half of the sea-ice decline occurred over a period of time when the air’s CO2 concentration rose by more than 70 ppm. They determined that the central and highestaltitude area of the ice cap. 1999. 2000) of the largest ice cap in the Eurasian Arctic—Austfonna. Deser et al.” Based on the ancillary sea-ice and meteorological data they analyzed. Wang and Ikeda.4%. Polyakov et al. Deser et al.” They suggest.!Sea!Ice. -0..” Divine and Dick (2006) used historical April through August ice observations made in the Nordic Seas—comprised of the Iceland. 2000.” They further note that the highest of these growth rates represents “as much as a 40% increase in accumulation rate (Pinglot et al. Kwok and Rothrock.!and!Sea!Level! is observed over the period 1860-1900. 2001). concluded that the 157 . it is difficult to accept the claim that Northern Hemispheric sea ice is rapidly disintegrating in response to CO2-induced global warming.” The likelihood that Arctic sea ice trends are the product of such natural oscillations. its impact over the last century has declined to less than a tenth of what its impact was over the preceding four decades. Laptev. 1990. 1997.” In light of this litany of findings..5% per decade. “do not support the hypothesized polar amplification of global warming. (2003) report that “over the entire Siberian marginal-ice zone the century-long trend is only -0.” Moreover. Noting that the last cold period observed in the Arctic occurred at the end of the 1960s. 1999.” and we note..g. extending from 30°W to 70°E—to construct time series of ice-edge position anomalies spanning the period 1750-2002. Hurrell and van Loon. that the first half of this sea-ice decline occurred over a period of time when the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration rose by only 7 ppm. In a similar study of the Kara. One final study of note is that of Bamber et al. the two Norwegian researchers say their results suggest that “the Arctic ice pack is now at the periodical apogee of the low-frequency variability. which comprises 15 percent of its total area. in their words.” while “in the Kara. and -1. (2004). during the previous warm phase of the low frequency oscillation.” and that “this could explain the strong negative trend in ice extent during the last decades as a possible superposition of natural low frequency variability and greenhouse gas induced ! warming of the last decades.. they say “these trends. Mysak and Power. in a study published the following year.” including connections with: “(1) the North Atlantic Oscillation (e.g. East Siberian. The authors report that “evidence was found of oscillations in ice cover with periods of about 60 to 80 years and 20 to 30 years. respectively.. 1992). 2000). 1999. (2) the Arctic Ocean Oscillation (Polyakov et al. Rather. Norwegian.. the oscillatory behavior observed in so many of the sea ice studies suggests. Kwok. 1979). and Chukchi Seas the ice extent trends are not large either: -1. and Chuckchi Seas. Polyakov et al. Parkinson continues. superimposed on a continuous negative trend.0% per decade. and Barents Seas.” which observations are indicative of a “persistent ice retreat since the second half of the 19th century” that began well before anthropogenic CO2 emissions could have had much effect on earth’s climate.

C..co2science. 2006. may be just Krabill. “will have a significant impact on the mass-balance of Satellite evidence for an Arctic sea ice cover in land ice around the Arctic Basin over at least the next transformation.1029/2004GL019667.P. Whitlow. G. Raper. and Cavalieri. C. Wright. Declining reduction in sea-ice cover in this sector of the Arctic. A 21-year record of Arctic sea-ice extents and their regional. Spatial and temporal multiyear sea ice distributions in the Arctic: A neural network analysis of SSM/I data..V.. Variability of Arctic sea ice: the view from space. Svalbard. Polar Geography 24: 1-12. and van Loon. D. Variability of sea-ice extent in Baffin 158 Kwok. K.J. Ambio 33: 487-494. R. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Odden ice tongue and a study of environmental effects. D.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Bay over the last millennium. L. Frederick.C. Kwok. C. Kwok.A. W. I. R. Climate Dynamics 5: 111-133. Sea-ice anomalies in the western Arctic and Greenland-Iceland Sea and their relation to an interdecadal climate cycle..J.1029/2003GL018031.I.L. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 4493-4500. And as what has been observed to date is only the beginning of the phenomenon.” Which result. Journal of Climate 13: 617-633. O. Severity of winter seasons in the will become even stronger in the absence of nearby northern Baltic Sea between 1529 and 1990: reconstruction and analysis. 1990. and Woollett.. Variability of Fram Strait ice flux and North Atlantic Oscillation. R. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 9093-9116. 2004.L.. Climatological Bulletin/Bulletin Climatologique 26: 147-176.M. available. seasonal and monthly variability and trends. Decadal variations in from the top of the sea (in this case. Anomalous recent growth of part of a large Arctic ice cap: Austfonna.. 1999.C. 2000b.G. Pedersen. V. R. M. Cavalieri. we might add. C. Swift.S.1029/2004JC002388. 2001.B. which Jevrejeva. 1999. ..V. Mayewski. Belchansky. W.1029/2003JC002238. 1992. Wadhams. Koerner. Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends.. Thomas. simply to say that it represents the transference of ice Hurrell. the Climatic Change 36: 301-326.. and Timlin. Additional information on this topic.K. and Laidre. Recent changes in Arctic Ocean sea ice motion associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. “projected changes in Arctic sea-ice cover.org/ subject/s/seaicearctic. and Marsden. S. Deser. 2000. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10. Johannessen. R.A. P. L.. K. Douglas. to the top of the adjacent land (in this case. Science 289: 428-430. 30-Year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability. 2001. Annual cycles of multiyear sea ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean: 1999-2003. R.V. and Rothrock. D. Grumet. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 775-778. 2003. Mysak. Recent trend reversals in Arctic sea ice extents: possible connections to the North Atlantic Oscillation.W. W.A. D. Fisher.L. Austfonna ice cap).P. J.. References Bamber. can be found at http://www. N. J. Influence of atmospheric circulation on the maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea. Shalina.. Manak. Parkinson. Walsh.. Mysak. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. 2000. L.M. S. Omstedt. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. and 18-year record. including and Yungel. M... 1997. 50 years.A..F. sea-ice.M. 2000. 1988-2001. Climatic Change 49: 129best explanation for the dramatic increase in ice cap 145.S. D. J. Comiso. Parkinson. C. J. Sonntag. 2004. W. Historical variability of sea ice edge position in the Nordic Seas. and Power. and Dowdeswell. and Dick. growth over the six-year study period was a large increase in precipitation caused by a concomitant Heide-Jorgensen. 2001..A. H. Arctic 53: 341-358.” as they say in the concluding sentence of their paper. S.. E. N. Krabill. Science 286: 1937-1939. C. G.. C. R. and Miles. Greenland ice sheet: High-elevation reviews of newer publications as they become balance and peripheral thinning..Y.L. Seaice anomalies observed in the Greenland and Labrador Seas during 1901-1984 and their relation to an interdecadal Arctic climate cycle.W. J. 2002.. D. 2001. J. Zielinski. 2000a.T. extent of open-water refugia for top predators in Baffin Their way of characterizing this phenomenon is Bay and adjacent waters.. S. and Chen.. and Vinnikov.A. Parkinson. Climate Research 17: 55-62. D. M. and Platonov. Parkinson. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: 10. J. Annals of Glaciology 34: 441-446. P. Alpatsky. the Barents Sea) climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: 10. 2004.L. E. C. Martin. J. Manizade.L. Divine. D. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 5177-5189. A. 2004.1029/2004JC002851.A. Wake. Abdalati. and Gersten.php. the opposite of that forecast by the IPCC. R.

Scambos.J. 1999. and Heide-Jorgensen. Alekseev.A. Cavalieri... G.V. S. Journal of Glaciology 47: 555566. 2001. Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Sea-Ice Oscillation. 1999.. J.V. A. M..A.R.. J. p.L. Journal of Climate 16: 2078-2085. K. R. 1978-1996.G.” The following year.F. J. Holloway and Sou (2002) explored “how observations. and Yulin.P. U. Data from the North Pole also showed little variability. J. F. and van Loon. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.. and Ikeda. J. Polar Research 18: 135-142. and Mysak.. Eiken... T.. H.A.. H. Bhatt.F. Mitchell. Knowles. Stroeve.J.837-20. D. Vinnikov. annual variability in sea ice thickness was greater than at the North Pole but once again. 1999.!Sea!Ice. I.V. 2003. Colony. and Yulin. M. Cavalieri. Pinglot.A. K. Is there a dominant timescale of natural climate variability in the Arctic? Journal of Climate 13: 3412-3434. Part II: Some oceanic and atmospheric effects in middle and high latitudes. A. and ocean along with dynamics expressed in an ocean-ice-snow model.” On the basis of a number of different data-fed model runs. T. Rothrock et al. Walsh. Venegas. and Johnson. Polyakov.P.... K.. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 1287-1290..Y. Winsor concluded that “mean ice thickness has remained on a near-constant level around the North Pole from 1986 to 1997. R.2.Y. I..A. Walsh. and Zakharov. D. Polyakov. Makshtas. in Winsor’s words.” incorporating data from “the atmosphere. 2000.A. Hagen. Fowler. A.C.856.V. C.2. Journal of Climate 14: 255-267. rivers. T. and Johnson. Proshutinsky... they found that for 159 . T. Thickness Based on analyses of submarine sonar data. V. Seasonal cycles in two regimes of Arctic climate. J. Arctic sea ice extents. and Comiso.. Climate states and variability of Arctic ice and water dynamics during 1946-1997. I.” As for the Beaufort Sea region. C.. U. C. Bekryaev. D.S. Anomalies and trends of sea ice extent and atmospheric circulation in the Nordic Seas during the period 1864-1998. The seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and Northern Europe.L. 2003. Melvold.. J. 2001. 2003.V.V. Stern. M.Observations:!Glaciers.E. M.. R. as well as two areas that had been particularly densely sampled. M.. 4.. M. S. V. Polyakov. Stouffer.. Karklin.C. and Haran. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 25. Garrett. D. L. H. R.. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 20. theory. P. Johnson..V... The IPCC reports the Rothrock finding but then reports that other more recent studies found “the reduction in ice thickness was not gradual..761-25. J. A.L. Bekryaev. Serreze. Fetterer.O. Two years after Johannessen et al. Drobot. 1979. Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming. Johannessen et al.. Alekseev. J.M. Barry. Rogers.. (1999) suggested that Arctic sea ice in the mid 1990s had thinned by about 42 percent of the average 1958-1977 thickness.C. Combining the North Pole results with the results of an earlier study. “no significant trend” in mean seaice thickness was found. D.A. A.J.. A mean net accumulation pattern derived from radioactive layers and radar soundings on Austfonna. and Vincent.Y. G. Robock. Colony.. Maslanik. V. Nordaustlandet. and trends.1029/2001GL011111. Parkinson.1029/2002GL016406. Karklin. but occurred abruptly before 1991. one centered at the North Pole (>87° N) and one in the central part of the Beaufort Sea (centered at approximately 76° N. (1999). R. Trends and variability of sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait.. Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent. The transect data across the entire Arctic Basin revealed that the mean Arctic sea-ice thickness had remained “almost constant” over the period of study. Wang.V.J. Monthly Weather Review 107: 509-519. and modeling work together to clarify perceived changes to Arctic sea ice.!and!Sea!Level! ! Parkinson. Long-term ice variability in Arctic marginal seas. Bhatt.L. Walsh. 2002. 2000. 145°W). for example.2. found that essentially all of the drop occurred rather abruptly over a single period of not more than three years (1987/88-1990/91) and possibly only one year (1989/90-1990/91). C. Science 286: 19341937. Proshutinsky. Vinje. Zwally.P. 353). Svalbard. Polyakov. A record minimum arctic sea ice extent and area in 2002. Johnson. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10. Polar Research 22: 11-18. and a linear regression of the data revealed a “slight increasing trend for the whole period.. Gloersen. A.P..V..V.A. areas. M. 1999. I. Winsor (2001) analyzed a more comprehensive set of Arctic sea-ice data obtained from six submarine cruises conducted between 1991 and 1997 that had covered the central Arctic Basin from 76° N to 90° N.!Precipitation. R.B.” and acknowledges that “ice thickness varies considerably from year to year at a given location and so the rather sparse temporal sampling provided by submarine data makes inferences regarding long term change difficult” (IPCC 2007.788.

East determined that within the central Arctic.” the mid-1960s. but only 3. 62°N. then a properly reproduce the observed high-frequency. studies with the exception of Parkinson et al. duration. and future. noting that the Ocean. 2000. (2004) analyzed Arctic sea-ice drift initial inferred rapid thinning of Arctic sea ice was. East Hudson Bay region “has been omitted from those Siberian. to lesser degrees. these results were reconfirmed by Polyakov et Pfirman et al.0 years from 1990-91 through 1996-97. They also landfast-ice data obtained from the Kara.” but stating that “these trends are system and a strengthening of the European Arctic not statistically significant at the 95% confidence low (a shift from lower North Atlantic level. Zhang et al.” and (3) showed that “sea ice mass can change by up to 16% within one year. including the Beaufort.” altimeters carried aboard ERS-1 and 2 satellites to Lastly. which different studies of sea-ice cover. and decreased the fraction of thick-ridged ice within the not statistically significant at the 95% level. ice travel Siberian.5°N. (2003) used an eight-year time series index) [Walsh et al. simulations of both recent.” A year central basin of the Arctic. They also report that “varying winds Buoy Program. (2002) Canadian Archipelago. the Barents Sea and In the same year.” while They also note that the rapid change in ice dynamics noting that “in the Kara and Chukchi Seas trends are that occurred between 1988 and 1990 was “in positive.” consistent with the employed newly available long-term Russian observations of several other investigators. 1996.” volume estimated in 1950. based on monthly fields they put it.” These real-world observations (1) revealed “an For 13 stations located on the shores of Hudson Bay interannual variability in ice thickness at higher (seven) and surrounding nearby lakes (six)..” Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation to higher NAO/OA Laxon et al.” (2) undermined “the measurements of ice thickness and associated weather conclusion from numerical models that changes in ice conditions that began and ended. from the Beaufort Gyre over the latter period positive or negative in sign at different locations.. records “do not show a significant trend. (1999). Rigor et al. Polyakov et al. concluded that “errors are noting their results indicated “increasing volume to present in current simulations of Arctic sea ice. and was deemed by later. are transported across the submarine surveys missed this dominant mode of central basin and are exported primarily through Fram variability.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! which finding “contrasts with the concept of a slowly the last half of the past century. than simulated and Gough then analyzed long-term weekly by regional Arctic models.0 years from 1984-85 through 1988variability in the Arctic environment poleward of 89. in a paper on landfast ice in Canada’s determine the mean thickness and variability of Arctic Hudson Bay.. Gagnon and Gough (2006) cite nine sea ice between latitudes 65° and 81. 2000. in the mean. and in the Laptev and East Siberian Seas response to a weakening of the Beaufort high pressure trends are negative. as dynamics from 1979-1997. and Chuckchi Seas to investigate trends and times averaged 4. to be responsible for some of the seaal. Laptev. decadal variability without significant stating in their closing sentence that “until models trend from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s. produced by greenhouse Arctic sea ice volume] over 50 years is appropriate. and region covers the entire circumference of the Arctic thickness in the Northern Hemisphere. Proshutinsky and Johnson. and Greenland Seas.” The net effect of this behavior.” warming. Laptev. variability in sea ice 1990s. thickness. who reported that the available fast-ice ice thinning observed between the 1980s and 1990s. (2003). “unlikely.” This analysis and peripheral regions. using a Lagrangian perspective that that readily redistribute Arctic ice create a recurring “shows the complexities of ice drift response to pattern whereby ice shifts between the central Arctic variations in atmospheric conditions. Chukchi. from measurements of ice freeboard made by radar 2002]. and of greater amplitude. Gagnon frequency.” 160 . in their words. in 1963 thickness occur on much longer timescales than and 1993. respectively. and loss of volume from the mid-1980s to the midthermodynamically driven.” They suggest that the Pfirman et al.” Strait and. was that “the volume estimated in 2000 is close to the changes in Arctic ice cover will be open to question. Barents. Kwok. changes in ice extent. Kara. “no linear trend [in dwindling ice pack.” due to problems arising from of ice motion obtained from the International Arctic under-sampling. especially in the Canadian indicated that “large amounts of sea ice form over sector.” and that the “timing and tracks of the shallow Arctic shelves.” Laxon et al. (1993-2001) of Arctic sea-ice thickness data derived 1997. This study revealed that fast-ice thickness This enhanced rate of export of old ice to Fram Strait trends in the different seas were “relatively small.

1029/2001GL011111. Gagnon.” It will likely be a number of years before anything definitive can be said about CO2-induced global warming on the basis of the thickness of Arctic sea-ice. G.L. and Miller. (2003) noted that “a sharp decrease in ice thickness of roughly 0. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Colony.Observations:!Glaciers. V.. D..1029/2004GL020063. Solomon. Variability in Arctic sea ice drift. D.V. Cavalieri.. Pfirman. M. reducing heat conduction and thereby ice growth.L. V. R.php. Colony. References Dumas. I. A. D.A.514. IPCC.. S. I. East-west asymmetry in long-term trends of landfast ice thickness in the Hudson Bay region. The impact of varying atmospheric forcing on the thickness of arctic multi-year sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. in their words. R.837-20. 1997. P.A. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 20. while a slight thinning lacking statistical significance was observed on the eastern side.. Has Arctic Sea Ice Rapidly Thinned? Journal of Climate 15: 1691-1701. Manning. Laxon. 2003. U.V. Satellite evidence for an Arctic sea ice cover in transformation. J. Marquis. J. Recent changes in Arctic Ocean sea ice motion associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. M. Canada. M..M. Two circulation regimes of the wind driven Arctic Ocean. Alekseev.. Makshtas. and Smith. Additional information on this topic. Kwok. R. and Weaver. Parkinson. O. can be found at http://www.. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.B. Polyakov.P. and Miles.. Peacock. Tignor.. it was a natural consequence of changes in ice dynamics caused by an atmospheric regime shift. C. as per Winsor (2001)—was not the result of CO2-induced global warming.. W. Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming. 2002. T.W. Johnson. 2004. Karklin. M.. Proshutinsky. and to the reduction in sea-ice extent and thickness observed in other regions of the Arctic. Chen. and trends.A. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.. S. 1999..P. 161 .. and Gough. Cambridge.8 m over 2 years (1974-76). and Yulin A. G. G.. Qin. was “related to the variability of air temperature.J. Holloway.. In describing an earlier regime shift. “because the snow cover insulates the ice surface. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 775-778. Averyt. D. Johannessen.Y. R. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10. Flato...M. Whether any portion of possible past sea ice thinning was due to global warming is consequently still impossible to know.6 m over 4 years (1970-74) [was] followed by an abrupt increase of roughly 0. and Sou.856.V... Polyakov. Bekryaev. D. Bhatt. (Eds. U. Dumas et al.C. H. for temporal variability in Arctic sea-ice behavior is simply too great to allow such a small and slowly developing signal to be detected yet. areas.” This asymmetry. Z.” Gagnon and Gough say “this contradiction must be addressed in regional climate change impact assessments. and Rigor. irrespective of past or future changes in the air’s CO2 content. A. A.A.V.” These observations suggest that much of the reported thinning of Arctic sea ice that occurred in the 1990s—if real. 1978-1996.co2science.!Precipitation.) Cambridge University Press. 1999.1029/2003GL017433.. E. 2006.org/ subject/s/seaicearcticthick. 2007. Walsh. Gloersen. Science 286: 1937-1939. J. G.V..V. 2000. other than that its impact on sea-ice thickness is too small to be detected at the present time. Karklin. S. Nature 425: 947-950. Rather. I.P. 2002.S.. Long-term ice variability in Arctic marginal seas. Bekryaev.V.!and!Sea!Level! ! Results of the study revealed that a “statistically significant thickening of the ice cover over time was detected on the western side of Hudson Bay. Walsh. 2003. W.V.” Noting that their findings “are in contrast to the projections from general circulation models. Journal of Climate 16: 2078-2085. for example. and the dates of ice freezeup and break-up. and Comiso.S.V. Shalina. High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region.” with “increasing maximum ice thickness at a number of stations” being “correlated to earlier freeze-up due to negative temperature trends in autumn. Colony. Johnson. M.J. Arctic sea ice extent. NY. Alekseev. M.L.. Bhatt.” and with high snow accumulation being associated with low ice thickness. R.. and Yulin. K. Journal of Geophysical Research 102: 12. Haxby.A. United Kingdom and New York. A.. A.!Sea!Ice. snow depth. Zwally.F. 2003.. N.. M. of which there have been several in decades past and will likely be several in decades to come.493-12. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. R. and Johnson. Climate Research 32: 177-186.

Journal of Climate 13: 3670-3688. 2000). 2000. M. Rawlins. and Johnson.. can be found at http://www. McClelland.. 4.. 1998. E. Y.. Rothrock. Willmott. J. V.A. Trenberth.org/subject/ Response of sea ice to the Arctic oscillation.A. M. Yu. T. we review what some of them have learned about rainfall across the globe. X. Rawlins et al. Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM.J.A. Chapman. Le Barbé. K. 2002. and Stouffer. Griggs.. model predictions of imminent CO2-induced global warming often suggest that this phenomenon should lead to increases in rainfall amounts and intensities. Senior. Journal of Climate 13: 3099-3114.. 2002.. Climatic Change 43: 353-367. Delclaux.J. Climatic Change 39: 667-694.T. Kunkel (2003) says “several studies have argued that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will result in an increase of heavy precipitation (Cubasch et al.J.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Trenberth.. and Yap.co2science. C. including reviews on precipitation topics not discussed here. P. U. Dix.S. Wallace.. P. Meehl. Linder. T. 1996. Frolking. Evaluation of trends in derived snowfall and rainfall across Eurasia and linkages with discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Kharin and Zwiers. H. and Gordon. A.A. and Ganopolski. Recent changes in Arctic sea ice: The interplay between ice dynamics and thermodynamics.. van der Linden. Climate 15: 2648-2663.G. Maskell. J. Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Implications for rainfall rates with climate change. G.. Thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover. 1998. In this section. 2001. Journal of Climate 14: 17651779. Journal of Climate 9: 480-486. I. Journal of Climate 7: 5-23. Yonetani. A. 2000.W. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 1039-1041.. Arctic sea ice thickness remained constant during the 1990s. G. R. S.W.J... R. Lebel. Lammers. S.J.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Rigor. and Zwiers. L. 2001..J. 1998). 162 . Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 14: 275-295. 1999. 2001.E. Noda. Yonetani and Gordon. Recent decrease of sea level pressure in the central Arctic. Projections of future climate change. Journal of Climate 11: 2200-2222.” citing as the basis for this statement the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2005).. Ding. Raper. Cambridge. 2001. J. C. Y. and Kharin.B..V. J. and Vorosmarty. S. 2000. 2001. K. M.B.. S. R.” Many scientists are examining historical precipitation records in an effort to determine how temperature changes of the past millennium have impacted these aspects of earth’s hydrologic cycle.J. 2006. B.L. Shiklomanov. (Eds. Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10. References Cubasch. T. From GCM scales to hydrological scales: rainfall variability in West Africa. I.. and Rahmstorf.3. Lammers.A. and Steele..1029/2005GL025231. Walsh. Shiklomanov. J..L.V.. Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. D.L. UK. Noguer.I. Dai. R. C. and Maykut. Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean.L. V. Cambridge University Press. (2006) state that “warming is predicted to enhance atmospheric moisture storage resulting in increased net precipitation. F. Science 298: 2171-2173. R.. Journal of p/subject_p. Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model. Rothrock. J. S. 1994.J. In: Houghton. D.. Zwiers.. starting with Africa. Manabe. A. 1998.J. Zwiers and Kharin. Stouffer. 1999. Shiklomanov. C. M. Contributions of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. R. Changes in the extremes of climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2doubling. Precipitation Trends In spite of the fact that global circulation models (GCMs) have failed to accurately reproduce observed patterns and totals of precipitation (Lebel et al. and Polcher. Kharin.. D. Additional information on this subject.A.A.. and Colony.M. Peterson. Winsor. Geophysics Research Letters 26: 3469-3472.W. Similarly.. W... Peterson et al. Zhang. G. Holmes. A.. Boer. F..B. Simulated changes in the frequency of extremes and regional features of seasonal/annual temperature and precipitation when atmospheric CO2 is doubled.” citing the works of Manabe and Stouffer (1994) and Rahmstorf and Ganopolski (1999). (2002) have written that “both theoretical arguments and models suggest that net high-latitude precipitation increases in proportion to increases in mean hemispheric temperature. C. and Shy. Rahmstorf. 2000.php. Vorosmarty.M. K. F.E.

Mode 3 was uncorrelated with ENSO but was associated with tropical trend-like changes that were correlated with interdecadal warming of tropical sea surface temperatures. 1999. 1996.. as well as from the other studies described above. they determined that precipitation over the land area of the globe was mostly below the century-long mean over the first decade-and-a-half of the record. Additional information on this topic. with a record length now over 26 years beginning 1979 (Huffman et al. “precipitation over land increased by about 2% over the period 1900-1998 (Dai et al.3 percent per decade. 1998). analyzing the information they contain to obtain a picture of precipitation patterns over the twentieth century.3.!Sea!Ice.” so that “the global average change [was] near zero. it would appear from Smith et al. Smith et al.” Consequently. In doing so. Globally. but since 1915 there was essentially no net change. there may well have been a slight decrease in precipitation since about 1917 or 1918.” Over the earth as a whole. Held and Soden... For the oceanic portion of the world between 30°N and 30°S. whereupon it remained above the century-long mean until the 1970s. 1991. whereupon it recovered and edged upward towards the century mean.” and in reviewing the scientific literature on precipitation. Hence. Concentrating on the last half of the twentieth century. found that most of the precipitation variations in their global dataset were “associated with ENSO and have no trend. there was indeed a slight increase in global land area precipitation.. for the entire century. can be found at http://www. when the IPCC claims the world warmed at a rate and to a degree that was unprecedented over the past two millennia. “in warm event years. the data of Neng et al.co2science.’s study depict just the opposite effect over the land area of the globe..!and!Sea!Level! 4.” New et al. Trenberth. leading to the hypothesis that one of the major consequences will be an intensification (or acceleration) of the water cycle (DelGenio et al. they say that the trends were associated “with increased tropical precipitation over the Pacific and Indian Oceans associated with local warming of the sea. and the reduction is more significant than the increase. Hulme et al. In doing so. Arnell et al. 2001). report that “the mode 3 variations average to near zero. In their case. Global Huntington (2006) notes there is “a theoretical expectation that climate warming will result in increases in evaporation and precipitation.’s study.org/ subject/p/precipglobal. even under the supposedly highly favorable thermal conditions of the last quarter-century. while Mode 2 was associated with the strong warm ENSO episodes of 1982/83 and 1997/98. 2003)”—Smith et al. However. so this mode does not represent any net change in the amount of precipitation over the analysis period. they found that the first three EOFs accounted for 52 percent of the observed variance in the precipitation data. that one of the major theoretical expectations of the climate modeling community remains unfulfilled. after which it declined by about the same amount to 1992 (taking it well below the century-long mean). there was an overall decrease of about 0. whereas state-of-the-art climate models nearly always predict more precipitation in a warming world. 1997. they note that this increased precipitation was “balanced by decreased precipitation in other regions. while others experienced less. the record of which begins in 1920. Adler et al. Neng et al. the land area where the annual rainfall was reduced is far greater than that where the annual rainfall was increased.1. (2006) used empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to study annual GPCP-derived precipitation variations over the period of record. they found some regions experienced more rainfall in warm ENSO years. (2001) also reviewed several global precipitation datasets.Observations:!Glaciers.!Precipitation. which is 70 percent covered by water.. 2000.” As for the variations that were not associated with ENSO and that did exhibit trends. therefore.php 163 . For the world as a whole. he concludes that on a globally averaged basis.” Consequently.. (2002) analyzed data from 1948 to 2000 in a quest to determine the effect of warm ENSO years on annual precipitation over the land area of the globe. Smith et al. Loaciga et al. in the words of the researchers. 1997. ! Most recently—and noting that “the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has produced merged satellite and in situ global precipitation estimates. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. over the period 1979-2004. but that it increased from 1901 to the mid-1950s. Mode 1 was associated with mature ENSO conditions and correlated strongly with the Southern Oscillation Index.” However.

1029/2005GL025393. I..B. N... A..M. DelGenio. J. 2006. H. and the latter half of the twentieth century has seen an enhanced hydrologic cycle with a return of some lake levels to the high stands of the mid to late 1800s. but lower for the period 1934-1969.S. D. and 1760-1840. Gruber. J..F. and Schneider.D..-P. B.. Curtis. Journal of Hydrology 174: 83-127. Garvey.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! References Adler. 2000. Xie. and White. J. These “episodes of persistent aridity.. Nature 351: 382-385. Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change. G. Variations in annual global precipitation (1979-2004). Osborn. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 5-20. The drought did not last long... Neng. 1999..E. and Soden. K. In: McCarthy. Huntington. McNab.A.... Huffman. Bolvin. Annual Review of Energy and Environment 25: 441-475. Hydrology and water resources. Rudolf. Simulations of the effect of a warmer climate on atmospheric humidity.. which began sometime prior to 1800. X. Ferraro. finding that interannual variability was higher for the periods 1900-1933 and 1970-1998. T.. Valdes. E.W. and Dongdong. A.A.J. Cambridge. A. They report the region was significantly drier than it is today during the Medieval Warm Period from AD 1000 to 1270.” Extremely low lake levels were the norm.” suggesting that rainfall trends in southern Africa do not appear to have been influenced by CO2-induced—or any other type of—global warming. A. A. K.. 1996. S. B. J. Verschuren et al. R. The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present).. Journal of Hydrometeorology 4: 11471167. Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century.” nor any evidence of “abrupt shifts during the 20th century. R. R..” . Nelkin.D. A. C. 1991. University Press. based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Project 2. Luwen. R. D. Nicholson and Yin (2001) report there have been “two starkly contrasting climatic episodes” in the equatorial region of East Africa since the late 1700s.Y.. Hulme. this latter period was interrupted by three episodes of prolonged dryness: 1390-1420.J. 164 Smith.. Dai.. UK. (2001) analyzed summer (JanuaryMarch) rainfall totals in southern Africa over the period 1900-1998. R. Huffman.. Shiklomanov. A preliminary study on the global land annual precipitation associated with ENSO during 1948-2000.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts. M. Vogel. Dokken.J. pp. The first. J.A. 1998.A. the drought began to weaken and floods became “continually high. Loaciga.2. T. M... and Johns. and Arkin. P. the authors conclude there were “no significant changes in the January-March rainfall totals.” but by the turn of the century lake levels began to fall as mild drought conditions returned. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 19: 993-1003.M. however. and Stakhiv. Geophysical Research Letters 25: 3379-3382. 2003. K... L.. The Third Assessment Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2000) also examined hydrologic conditions in equatorial East Africa. 133-191. Lacis. Trenberth. International Journal of Climatology 21: 18991922. A. P. Journal of Hydrology 319: 83-95. In the mid to latter part of the 1800s. Gruber. Compagnucci. but over a much longer time scale. Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: comparisons of observations with HadCM2 simulations. however.. 15601625. and Jones. C. However. P. Yin... U. (Eds. O. a full thousand years.. Water vapor feedback and global warming. M. 2002. M. R. Janowiak. while it was relatively wet during the Little Ice Age from AD 1270 to 1850.3.. N. A.F. Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10. and Ruedy.. Ferraro.F. 1997. 2006.. I.5° analysis. Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 19001998. 4. R. T. Howe. Hulme. A. were “more severe than any recorded drought of the twentieth century.. A. Mailu. Susskind. Rudolf. Held. Chang. Liu. However. Journal of Climate 10: 2943-2962.C. I. was characterized by “drought and desiccation. Climatic Change 42: 327-339.J. Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis. 2001. U. New. 2001. i. Chang.. Leary. and DelGenio.e. Arnell.G. Canziani. 1997. Hanaki.J. as drought reached its extreme during the 1820s and 1830s. Schneider. X.. da Cunha. T. and Schwarz.. Fung. G. Global warming and the hydrologic cycle. Adler. Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge. Africa Richard et al. and Gruber. S.” according to the authors. H. The strongest rainfall anomalies (greater than two standard deviations) were observed at the beginning of the century. C. E.J. G. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined data set. Todd. B.

Rawlins et al.” Be that as it may. Y.” and “nearly all of Africa has been affected ..-E.. but that “the observed mean increase varies strongly from month-to-month making it difficult to explain the annual trend solely on the basis of an anthropogenic effect resulting from the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. finding that both the frequency and mean intensity of precipitation at these two locations decreased over the period of record.to three-decade Sahelian drought is unusual or caused by the putative higher temperatures of that period.. X. Linge. Nicholson (2001) reports that the most significant climatic change that has occurred “has been a long-term reduction in rainfall in the semi-arid regions of West Africa.” and that “a similar dry episode prevailed during most of the first half of the 19th century. Partridge. Additional information on this topic. Rouault.” However.” There have been. Lamoureux (2000) analyzed varved lake sediments obtained from Nicolay Lake. H. Nicholson. Poccard. and Trzaska.. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1. I.. Nunavut. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. (1998) examined a number of climatic variables at two first-order Arctic weather stations (Barrow and Barter Island. she goes on to note that “the rainfall conditions over Africa during the last 2 to 3 decades are not unprecedented.. 20th century droughts in southern Africa: Spatial and temporal variability.” at least for the part of the western Arctic that was the focus of their analysis.C. as well as the Arctic as a whole. particularly since the 1980s. S..!Precipitation. Verschuren. Climatic and environmental change in Africa during the last two centuries. 2001.org/ subject/p/precipafrica. Canada.F. 2001.3. Fauchereau. is not valid. (2006) calculated trends in the spatially averaged water equivalent of annual rainfall and snowfall across the six largest Eurasian drainage basins that feed major rivers that 165 . S. Stevenson.E. which were compared with rainfall events recorded at a nearby weather station over the period 1948-1978 and thereby used to reconstruct a rainfall history for the surrounding region over the 487-year period from 1500 to 1987. Richard.100 years.” The importance of these findings is best summarized by Nicholson herself. P. In analyzing the climate of the past two centuries. M.R. and Tyson. However.co2science. can be found at http://www. 4. and Cumming.A. A. Rapid climate shifts in the southern African interior throughout the mid to late Holocene. 2000. J. S..D. 2001). when she states that “the 3 decades of dry conditions evidenced in the Sahel are not in themselves evidence of irreversible global change. S. Alaska) that began in 1949. The results were suggestive of a small. Cornwall Island. K.. International Journal of Climatology 21: 873-885. 2001. the four researchers concluded that the theoretical model-based assumption that “increased temperature leads to high precipitation . when the earth was still in the clutches of the Little Ice Age. even in Africa (LeeThorp et al. teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric conditions. “three decades of protracted aridity.. Arctic Curtis et al. N. D..” Why not? Because an even longer period of similar dry conditions occurred between 1800 and 1850. Most recently.php.. they report that temperatures in the western Arctic increased. in a part of the planet predicted to be most impacted by CO2-induced global warming—the Canadian High Arctic—a warming of the climate is demonstrated to reduce weather extremes related to precipitation. Nature 403: 410-414. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 4507-4510. There is no reason to think that the past two.” Here.!Sea!Ice. and Yin. wet synoptic types during the coldest periods of the Little Ice Age.. B.. Contemporaneously. K. Lauritzen. but statistically insignificant. Laird. 2001. Nicholson.!and!Sea!Level! ! The dry episode of the late eighteenth/early nineteenth centuries recorded in Eastern Africa has also been identified in Western Africa. Climate Research 17: 123-144. C. References Lee-Thorp. Rainfall conditions in equatorial East Africa during the Nineteenth Century as inferred from the record of Lake Victoria. increase in rainfall over the course of the record. Holmgren.3. In addition. she says.E.” which has been “on the order of 20 to 40% in parts of the Sahel. likely due to increased occurrences of cool.Observations:!Glaciers. Moberg. Climatic Change 48: 387-398.. heavy rainfall was most frequent during the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. T. which were the coldest periods of the past 400 years in the Canadian High Arctic. Lamoureux found that “more frequent extremes and increased variance in yield occurred during the 17th and 19th centuries.

. or investigated the long term trends in the frequency of (3) both of the above. therefore. They report “many hourly heavy precipitation events International Journal of Climatology 18: 1687-1707. with special Meteorological Agency for the period 1890-1999. Stone. Asia 1999. Kanae et al. R.. Arctic Climate in the variability of monsoon rainfall over India. about three decades. Five centuries of interannual with the 1970s and the 1980s. Their results indicated that annual rainfall across the total area of the six basins decreased Kripalani et al. or (2) late statistically significant trend in IMR for the country twentieth century temperatures may not have been as a whole. on the other hand. and Kane. after which declines set in 166 .” In addition. according to the IPCC. 2000. including found significant decreasing trends.1029/20004GL021277.. Water Resources However. concluded two years earlier.” so that “no significant change precipitation response in real-world measurements. and Dutton. hypothesized by [the] greenhouse warming scenario in model simulations. was that annual total precipitation from 306 stations distributed across the country. Any or all of these choices fail cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal and the to provide support for a key claim of the IPCC. D. 1998. New York. (2003) note that globally averaged consistently and significantly over the 64-year period. over the large Siberian watersheds.” In addition.org/ support for the intensification of the monsoon nor any support for the increased hydrological cycle as subject/p/preciparctic. Wendler.L. their plots of maximum hourly precipitation and the number of extreme hourly precipitation events rise fairly regularly from the 1890s to peak in the 1940s.” As a result. E.” Thereafter. Cambridge University much as Kripalani and Kulkarni (2001) had Press.. (above 20 mm/hour) occurred in the 1990s compared Lamoureux. leading strongly significant increase. they note that “hourly heavy precipitation Research 36: 309-318. recorded at the Tokyo Observatory of the Japan Precipitation decrease in the western Arctic.” To see if there is any sign of such a significant decrease. Geophysical Research They investigate this climate-model-derived Letters 31: 10. around the 1940s is even stronger/more frequent than in the 1990s.” The researchers’ bottom-line observational data for the period 1871-2001 obtained finding. emphasis on Barrow and Barter Island. 2005.php. Arabian Sea using 100-year (1890-1999) data and Additional information on this topic.” They further report that “Singh (2001) much warmer than those of the mid-1930s and 40s. intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to Compatibility analysis of precipitation and runoff trends increase in a warming world. “the 1990s seems to be unprecedented. Alaska. S. Yang. reviews of newer publications as they become Kripalani et al. exhibited “a of future energy use. [was] determined in Eurasian-basin snowfall over the they examined Indian monsoon rainfall using entire 64-year period. New York. hypothesis with digitalized hourly precipitation data Curtis.” which epochs “tend to last for “consistent with the reported (Berezovskaya et al.4. either (1) variability of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) nor the theoretical arguments and model predictions that the epochal changes are affected by the global suggest that “high-latitude precipitation increases in warming. they note that this finding is below normal rainfall.co2science. conclude that “there seem[s] to be no available.” They also report that “studies by several proportion to increases in mean hemispheric authors in India have shown that there is no temperature” are not incredibly robust. J. (2004) note that the number and Berezovskaya.” but only “until the late to “increased variability and strength of the Asian 1950s. temperatures are projected to rise under all scenarios Annual snowfall. it exhibited “a moderately monsoon. can be found at http://www.” High Arctic recorded in lacustrine varves. they report “there is 2004) decline in total precipitation. 2004. They (including both rainfall and snowfall) decreased over discovered “distinct alternate epochs of above and the period of their study. they say that “the analysis of observed data for the 131-year period References (1871-2001) suggests no clear role of global warming Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.” Impact Assessment—Special Report. S. D.” In fact. according to the IPCC. USA.” no clear evidence to suggest that the strength and In light of the findings reviewed above.” and that against that sediment yield and rainfall-induced erosion in the Canadian backdrop. G.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! deliver water to the Arctic Ocean for the period 19364.3.

International Journal of Climatology 21: 603-616.. and the single driest spring was 1746. 26. that the reconstructions “appear to show more frequent extended wet periods in more recent decades. Neff et al. Meko. B. Changes in hourly heavy precipitation at Tokyo from 1890 to 1999. They found the correlation between the two datasets was “extremely strong. S. and Wallin. conclude there is “solid evidence” that both signals are responding to solar forcing... A. they report that spectral analysis of the data revealed significant periodicities around 12 and 20-24 years. “possible evidence for solar influences in these reconstructions for northeastern Mongolia. G. R. and 10. T. Kripalani. E. in some cases it tends to suggest just the opposite and provides support for the proposition that precipitation responds to cyclical variations in solar activity.M. and because of the 14C record’s strong correlation with the !18O record.. D’Arrigo. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago..H. 134. Sabade. in other words. and Matter. Long term trends in the frequency of monsoonal cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian ocean. A. (2003) developed two reconstructions of spring (MayJune) precipitation for southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width measurements. International Journal of Climatology 23: 157-171. 2001. U.” Going back even further in time.K. Jacoby. Kripalani. Garfin. Neff..600 to 6.. R.. and Khandekar. N..C. in their words.” but they say this observation “does not demonstrate unequivocal evidence of an increase in precipitation as suggested by some climate models.” but they report that “dry periods of 1-2 years were well distributed throughout the record” and that the same was true of wet periods of one to two years’ duration. and Kulkarni. Oki..” In addition. With respect to more extreme events.P. A. Hughes. because variations in 14C tree-ring records are generally attributed to variations in solar activity.M.Observations:!Glaciers. Additional information on this topic. 2001.L. Kulkarni. Taking a longer view of the subject. A. Erkan. 2004. Natural Hazards 29: 189-206.” The authors do state. and 87 years for the ! O record and periodicities of 206. Monsoon rainfall variations and teleconnections over south and east Asia.!Precipitation. can be found at http://www. Cook. one of which extended from 1776 to 1998 and one from 1339 to 1998. Burns. Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario. Fleitmann. Nature 411: 290-293. the period that preceded the Industrial Revolution stood out. using the relationship between a 14C tree-ring record and a !18O proxy record of monsoon rainfall intensity as recorded in calcite !18O data obtained from a stalagmite in northern Oman.co2science.!and!Sea!Level! that bottom out in the 1970s and then reverse to rise to endpoints in the 1990s that are not yet as high as the peaks of the 1940s. (2001) used tree-ring chronologies from northeastern Mongolia to reconstruct annual precipitation and streamflow histories for the period 1651-1995. 2001. R. Journal of Climate 14: 872-881. M. D. Pederson et al. N.4 years for the 14C record. 18 References Kanae. 89.D.. 2003. G. Singh. 2003.100 years ago). as well as the closely corresponding results of their spectral analyses. 2001. B. 148.M.S. occurred prior to the Modern Warm Period. Pederson. Touchan et al. Neff et al. Analyses of both standard deviations and five-year intervals of extreme wet and dry periods of this record revealed that “variations over the recent period of instrumental data are not unusual relative to the prior record. Mangini. in their words. evidence from Asia provides no support for the claim that precipitation in a warming world becomes more variable and intense.. Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width. M. Consequently. Mudelsee. Hydrometeorological reconstructions for northeastern Mongolia derived from tree rings: 1651-1995.J. (2001) looked much further back in time (from 9.org/ subject/p/precipasia. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 82: 241247.” and a spectral analysis of the data revealed statistically significant periodicities centered on 779. D.S. Funkhouser.. Turkey’s greatest precipitation extremes. These reconstructions. A. 126. R. and Kashida.php.H. which is just the opposite of what the IPCC claims about extreme weather and its response to global warming. G. S. O.R. “show clear evidence of multi-year to decadal variations in spring precipitation. They say “all of the wettest 5year periods occurred prior to 1756. and Buckley.!Sea!Ice. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. 167 .. ! 205.” while the longest period of reconstructed spring drought was the four-year period 1476-79. however. Mausam 52: 655-658. S. In conclusion. M.. Touchan. In fact. suggesting.

The RCS reconstruction. Davi.” reviews of newer publications as they become Wilson et al. Mediterranean covering a full millennium and a half.” They warming.5. (2005) derived the first tree-ring reconstruction of Starting at the western extreme of the continent.3. standardized References with a fixed 80-year spline function (SPL).H. Solomina et al. Their efforts revealed significant yearly Solomina. Germany.J. 2005. and 1810-1870.” they found the cumulative with the Medieval Warm Epoch. while the second version used regional levels getting higher? Statistical evidence for the curve standardization (RCS) to retain lower frequency Netherlands. Solomina et al.J. and Franses. International Journal of Climatology 25: 6111810 and 1870-2000 and drier than the long-term 630. better captured lower frequency variation. Central “near-average with relatively few extreme values” from about the middle 1700s to the early 1800s and Koning and Franses (2005) conducted a detailed again since about 1920.co2science. N.org/ March-August precipitation chronology based on subject/p/precipeurope. and 4. P. D’Arrigo. variations. can be found at http://www. and Esper.5. describe as broadly coinciding nonparametric techniques. when humidity was distribution function of annual maximum higher than during the instrumental era. The most notable anomaly of analysis of a century of daily precipitation data the 1500-year reconstruction was an “extremely wet” acquired at the de Bilt meteorological station in the period that occurred between AD 1050 and 1250. Journal of Climate 18: 4701-4714. Luckman. R.3. on the other hand.H. (2001) used a variety of documentary peninsula. leading them to conclude that that over the period of twentieth century global “precipitation levels are not getting higher. including not find qualitatively different results.1029/2005GL023335. B.5. Netherlands. living and historical tree-ring widths obtained from the Bavarian Forest of southeast Germany for the period 1456-2001. Europe precipitation values from the tree-ring series revealed year-to-year and decadal variability. explaining 40 percent of the total variance was evident over the period 1896-1988 in an in precipitation.1. for the period 1620-2002.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! the tree-sampling site. 1610-1730. The first version. 10. after (southern Spain) from 1501 to 1997. average during the periods 1500-1560.. precipitation levels remained constant throughout the The results of these several analyses demonstrate period 1906-2002. located on the northern coast of the Black data to reconstruct seasonal rainfall in Andalusia Sea in the Ukraine. and Jacoby. there was little ! evidence of a long-term trend. after which they which they utilized this chronology to correctly date developed a relationship between seasonal rainfall and correlate with an earlier precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the reconstruction derived from a sediment core taken in period 1851-1997. This work proxy precipitation record for the region that stretched revealed that the NAO influence on climate is all the way back to AD 500. A 500 March-August precipitation was substantially greater year dendroclimatic reconstruction of spring-summer than the long-term average during the periods 1730precipitation from the lower Bavarian Forest region. Using what they call “robust which Solomina et al.php. the reconstructed 4. enhanced precipitation was not observed in report that similar analyses they performed for the Central Europe. Once again. (2005) developed two versions of a available. Geophysical Research Letters 32: wetter or drier conditions over the 500-year period. suggesting that Wilson.2. which they used to reconstruct a 1931 from nearby Saki Lake. was designed to retain decadal and higher frequency Koning. J. In describing their stronger in winter than in other seasons of the year in findings. 2005. R. say no trend in precipitation Andalusia. make a point of noting instrumental record obtained at a location adjacent to that “the recent positive temperature anomalies over 168 . A. G. Also.. Are precipitation variations. and decadal variability in the SPL chronology. 2005. Netherlands’ five other meteorological stations “did Additional information on this topic. but Tree-ring reconstruction of Crimean drought and lake there did not appear to be any trend toward either chronology correction. Rodrigo et al. thus ending up with a history of the NAO from 1501 to 1997.3. O. but remained 4. Moving still further east in Central Europe.. however. spring (April-July) precipitation for the Crimean Rodrigo et al.

as it included both wetter and drier periods.” Working in the eastern Basilicata region of southern Italy.” Alexandrov et al.” or as they say in their concluding paragraph.” They concluded that if the climate-driven changes they observed over the latter part of the twentieth century continue.3/year from 1985 to 2005.Observations:!Glaciers. with landslide-event frequency changing from 1. and 24 hours. and by subjecting the data to a Pettitt test. 6. (2) the shorter 1951-1994 period. finding “a decreasing trend in annual and especially summer precipitation from the end of the 1970s” and “variations of annual precipitation in Bulgaria showed an overall decrease.” In addition.0/year in the late 1970s before declining to less than 0. (2000) as indicating that “the LIA was characterized in the southern Iberian Peninsula by increased rainfall. none had positive trends at all durations and one had negative trends at all durations. “the landscape of southern Italy and the west-central Mediterranean will become increasingly stable. For the still-longer complete period of record.” as opposed to an intensification of global warming. For the longer 1951-1994 period. (2002) performed a series of statistical tests to investigate the nature and potential causes of trends in winter (DecFeb) mean precipitation recorded at 40 stations over the period 1960-1995. revealing no impact of twentieth century global warming one way or the other. the majority of all stations exhibited no trends in extreme rainfall at any of the durations tested. they cite Rodrigo et al. ! Working in northern Italy. Also working in the Andalusia region of southern Spain. that “the frequency of extreme rainfall events in this area declined by more than 50% in the 1990s compared to the 1950s.!Sea!Ice. in their words.!Precipitation. Nevertheless. while flood frequency peaked at 1. This work revealed that the Little Ice Age (LIA) was by no means uniform in their region of study. none had positive trends at all durations and one had negative trends at all durations. in their words.” Sousa and Garcia-Murillo’s work complements these findings by indicating “an aridization of the climatic conditions after the last peak of the LIA (1830-1870). For each of these periods. the majority of all stations again continued to exhibit no trends in extreme rainfall at any of the durations tested. revealing a principal component that represented a common large-scale process that was likely responsible for the phenomenon.” which suggests that much of Europe became drier. trends were derived for extreme rainfall durations of 1. This work indicated. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis also was performed on the precipitation data. Clark and Rendell (2006) analyzed 50 years of rainfall records (1951-2000). This work revealed that for the period 1970-1994.6/year in the period 1955-1962 to 0. 3.2/year from 1990. Moving eastward into Italy. as well as resultant flood events and landslide events. (2004) analyzed a number of twentieth century datasets from throughout Bulgaria. not wetter. and (3) the still-shorter 1970-1994 period. the majority of all stations exhibited no trends in extreme rainfall at any of the durations tested.!and!Sea!Level! western Europe and recent dry winter conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean are strongly related to the persistent and exceptionally strong positive phase of the NAO index since the early 1980s.” Using analyses of tree-ring data and their connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation. Strong correlation between this component and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) suggested. (2002) analyzed rainfall data collected from 81 gauges spread throughout the Tuscany region for three different periods: (1) from the beginning of each record through 1994.” and they cite Grove (2001) as indicating that “climatic conditions inducing the LIA glacier advances [of Northern Europe] were also responsible for an increase in flooding frequency and sedimentation in Mediterranean Europe. four had positive trends at all durations and none had negative trends at all durations. This work revealed that nearly all of the stations experienced significant decreases in winter precipitation over the 35-year period of study. where they concentrated on characterizing trends in extreme rainfall events. Sousa and Garcia-Murillo (2003) studied proxy indicators of climatic change in Doñana Natural Park over a period of several hundred years.” In addition. Crisci et al. “increased land-surface stability will be the result. as the earth recovered from the global chill of the Little Ice Age. 12. they detected a significant downward shift at all stations around 1985. 169 . that the changes in winter precipitation around 1985 “could be due to an intensification of the positive phase of the NAO. comparing their results with those of other such studies conducted in neighboring regions. Tomozeiu et al. they report that “impact frequency also decreased. they report the region stretching from the Mediterranean into European Russia and the Ukraine “has experienced decreases in precipitation by as much as 20% in some areas.

Theoretical and both extreme wet and dry precipitation events were Applied Climatology 72: 221-229. although they questioned the veracity of the trend. R. including climatic variables in Iceland. 2003. Changes in the varied on multi-annual and decadal timescales. H..K. 2001. and precipitation was found to have exhibited less Maracchi. G.. century (1591-1595). M. Climate Mediterranean region actually became less variable Dynamics 25: 75-98. Y. E. (2005) developed summer (MayCastro-Diez. E. Meneguzzo.818. and Garcia-Murillo. The longest dry period occurred in the late sixteenth Tomozeiu.. In addition. preceded it. The “Little Ice Age” and its Linderholm and Chen (2005) derived a 500-year geomorphological consequences in Mediterranean Europe. Theoretical and Applied tree-ring data and one from a farmer’s diary. Xoplaki.A. J. Italy. J. produce a 250-year record of summer (June-August) precipitation in east central Sweden.D. the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its May-August precipitation in the eastern connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation. 1590. and Touchan et al. For the period 1923-2002. R. F. however. 1960 to 1995 over Emilia-Romagna. Climatic Change 58: 193-217. Lebanon. indicating that as Hughes. scales throughout the record. In conclusion.. References citing several biases that may have corrupted the data base. V. M.. that on the whole there were no long-term trends. N. SW Spain) at the end of the Little Ice Age. M. International Journal fairly stable period of above-average precipitation of Climatology 20: 721-732. Y.. Erkan. and 1850-1930. 2002. these studies of precipitation 4. 2000. (2004) analyzed variations in several Additional information on this topic. 2006. Climate variability and change in Bulgaria independent precipitation proxies. A. while there were two extreme Precipitation fluctuations during the winter season from wet periods: 1601-1605 and 1751-1755. Hanna et al. Grove. 2002. Linderholm and Molin (2005) analyzed two J. They Rodrigo. F. Crisci. 1650-1670. and Rendell.-M. and Moisselin. to Climatology 79: 133-149. winter (September-April) precipitation chronology Climatic Change 48: 121-136. precipitation appeared to have increased slightly. 2004. reviews of newer publications as they become over the past century in an effort to determine if there available.3. Esteban-Parra. Luterbacher. P.... M.. than it had been in the earlier part of the century. including precipitation.co2science. A. In a study covering the longest time span of all. A. Hindcasting extreme revealed there had been a high degree of variability in events: The occurrence and expression of damaging floods and landslides in southern Italy. Akkemik. Rainfall variability in southern Spain found considerable variability.J. including documentary data in southern Spain.805-14. Northern characteristics of Mediterranean Europe do not find evidence of the rising or more variable precipitation predicted by global climate models. can be found at http://www. between AD 1730 and 1790.org/ is “possible evidence of recent climatic changes” in subject/p/precipeuropemed. Schneider. from tree-ring data obtained within the northern boreal forest zone of west-central Scandinavia.php. Pozo-Vazquez. M. Pozo-Vazquez.5.M. and Stephan. Extreme rainfall in a changing climate: variability than it did during the 150 years that regional analysis and hydrological implications in Tuscany. and Cacciamani. aboveaverage winter precipitation was found to have 170 . 2001. Journal of Turkey. F. Additionally. found to be more variable over the intervals 1520Touchan. the globe experienced the supposedly unprecedented 2005. Esteban-Parra.S.J..L.. extend back in time as much as 600 years. and Castro-Diez. Over this period. Gozzini. Lazzeri. they found that May-August precipitation Sousa. but wetlands of Andalusia (Doñana Natural Park.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Rodrigo. G. Land Degradation & summer precipitation on inter-annual to decadal time Development 17: 365-380.. U. which Geophysical Research 106: 14. Hydrological Processes 16: 1261-1274.. B. Cyprus and Greece. D. Alexandrov. C. with the exception of a on decadal to centennial time scales.3. that cold island nation. Koleva. M. Pagliara. Funkhouser.. one derived from during the 20th century. 1501 using of the eastern Mediterranean region.. D. Syria. S. Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for warming of the last decades of the twentieth century. A reconstruction of the winter North August) precipitation reconstructions for several parts Atlantic Oscillation index back to A. This work Clarke.T. Over the past century of supposedly unprecedented global warming.

“did not increase as much and even showed a 171 . who studied snow course data from 1951-1985 and 1948-1987. can be found at http://www. with the lowest values occurring at the beginning of the record and the beginning of the seventeenth century. Cowles et al. Boreas 34: 44-52. Linderholm. and 1959 to the present.E. An analysis of Icelandic climate since the nineteenth century. there was no change in SWE with time. snow telemetry.co2science. however. over the Pacific Northwest. with the highest values reported in the early to mid-1500s. In the intermountain region and southern Rockies. respectively.!Sea!Ice. aerial markers and airborne gamma radiation—at more than 2. T. Generally ! speaking.W. Jónsson. In the case of streamflow. In the northern Rocky Mountains and Cascades of the Pacific Northwest. at 275 and 311 sites. a statistically significant increasing trend in precipitation in the basin was detected. however. Garbrecht and Rossel (2002) used state divisional monthly precipitation data from the US National Climatic Data Center to investigate the nature of precipitation throughout the US Great Plains from January 1895 through December 1999.” This trend was driven primarily by an increase in the number of rainy days in the moderate rainfall intensity range. these trends are all positive for plant and animal life. for example. and Chen. 1648-1669. Cowles et al.php. Similar extreme conditions may therefore be expected to naturally recur in the future. References Hanna.” citing Changnon et al. 17321851. They found “at the annual timescale.org/ subject/p/precipeuropenorth. 1626-1647. Linderholm.. and Box. Additional information on this topic. and was primarily the result of a reduction in the number of dry years and an increase in the number of wet years. In fact. These findings are particularly interesting in light of the fact that nearly all climate models suggest the planet’s hydrologic cycle will be enhanced in a warming world and that precipitation will increase.3.Observations:!Glaciers. (1993) and McCabe and Legates (1995). 2005. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. but with some significant within-region differences. The number of very wet years. 2004. the trend was decidedly negative.2 inches per year. 2005.W. additionally note that their results “reinforce more tenuous conclusions made by previous authors. D.!and!Sea!Level! occurred in 1520-1561. in the words of the authors. These findings demonstrate that non-CO2-forced wetter and drier conditions than those of the present have occurred repeatedly within this region throughout the past five centuries. Climate Research 29: 63-72. with SWE decreasing at a rate of 0. where Kusnierczyk and Ettl (2002) report that climate models predict “increasingly warm and wet winters. however. 1562-1625. Central Scandinavian winter precipitation variability during the past five centuries reconstructed from Pinus sylvestris tree rings. Early nineteenth century drought in east central Sweden inferred from dendrochronological and historical archives.000 sites in the eleven westernmost states over the period 1910-1998.6. 16961731. This work revealed that the long-term SWE trend of this entire region was negative. This 20-year span of time was the longest and most intense wet period of the entire 105 years of record. Over the period of Cowles et al.1 to 0. 1872-1892. with essentially no change being observed at the highintensity end of the spectrum. 1670-1695. when there was welldocumented worldwide warming. (2002) analyzed snow water equivalent (SWE) data obtained from four different measuring systems—snow courses. H. precipitation that fell and accumulated as snow in the western USA did not respond as predicted. below-average winter precipitation was observed during 1504-1520. T. and Molin. They too found a decreasing trend in SWE at most sites in the Pacific Northwest but more ambiguity in the southern Rockies.” as do Leung and Wigmosta (1999). finding that regions in the central and southern Great Plains experienced above-average precipitation over the last two decades of the twentieth century. and 1893-1958.’s study. 1852-1871. International Journal of Climatology 24: 1193-1210. 4. but monthly totals increased in low-flow months and decreased in high-flow months. J. United States Molnar and Ramirez (2001) conducted a detailed watershed-based analysis of precipitation and streamflow trends for the period 1948-97 in the semiarid region of the Rio Puerco Basin of New Mexico.!Precipitation. This prediction is especially applicable to the Pacific Northwest of the United States. H. it did just the opposite. there was no trend at the annual timescale. H.

adversely affect water reconstructions of drought for evidence of lowresources. (2002) In commenting on these findings. 1998.. positive developments for both man and nature in this McCabe and Wolock say “there is concern that important region of California. McCabe and Wolock (2002) further back in time. significant increase in the first two of these three it was also “less variable compared to other periods in parameters..” both of which characteristics are huge In describing the significance of these findings. at least within the southern Rocky Mountains.and 10-day duration happening in both the severe drought of the 1950s and events.” while “for 5. the 1740s.” and that “oscillatory modes in the 30Also studying the conterminous United States 70 year domain persisted until the mid-19th century were Kunkel et al. 2001). but it was primarily confined to the final 1800s and early 1900s “were about as high as in the decade of the twentieth century. Ni et al. Gray et al. who analyzed a new data in two regions. the elevated extreme precipitation of 19 tree-ring chronologies. Their research must be supplied by irrigation to grow vegetation at revealed that although region-wide precipitation an optimum rate. 1570-97. Haston and Michaelsen (1997) evaluated and analyzed (1) values of annual developed a 400-year history of precipitation for 29 precipitation minus annual potential stations in coastal and near-interior California evapotranspiration. 1664-70.” Looking at the entire conterminous United States Working with proxy data that extend much from 1895-1999. composite chronologies pertaining to the central and just the opposite has occurred.S. are comparable in magnitude to frequencies in the Enfield et al. while there has been no change in the present in all regions during the late 16th century amount of water required for optimum plant growth. they note that “for the warm phase AMO [Atlantic Multidecadal 1-day duration events. frequency variation in precipitation in five regional reveal that over the past century of global warming. (2003) examined 15 dioxide and other radiatively active gases may cause tree ring-width series that had been used in previous global warming and .” Going back even further in time. developed a 1. frequencies of that time “were most likely a they found “sustained dry periods comparable to the consequence of naturally forced variability. “the possibility that 1100s.” something they envision 1980s and 1990s. in their words.. decreasing to a minimum in southern Rockies may ensue from coupling of the the 1920s and ‘30s.” The northern and Kunkel (2003).-Mexican becomes streamflow. there was a statistically was experienced during the preceding three centuries. “fewer dry years over “natural variability in the frequency of precipitation the last 10 years. while for the third there was no change. (2003). and again.” which 1950s drought” occurred in “the late 1000s. followed by a general increase cold phase PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] with into the 1990s.” The results of their analyses.” 1895-2000. Their work revealed that for the during the twentieth century was higher than what country as a whole. This effort indicated “heavy precipitation They also note that “severe drought conditions across frequencies were relatively high during the late consecutive seasons and years in the central and 19th/early 20th centuries.. as 1980s/1990s. frequencies during 1895-1905 are only the late sixteenth century megadrought. and wet-dry cycles were apparently base of daily precipitation observations for the period synchronous at some sites until the 1950s drought.” of the recent increases. With respect to drought. and natural variability could be an important contributor 172 . the past.” Consequently.” This is also the conclusion of decrease for many regions. as opposed to an increase in very extremes is quite large on decadal time scales and wet years. and (3) the water deficit that border using tree-ring chronologies. the 1770s. were the leading cause of the observed wet cannot be discounted as the cause or one of the causes conditions. he too concludes that Garbrecht and Rossel report. however. They say “strong conterminous United States: moisture has become multidecadal phasing of moisture variation was more available. Barlow et al. megadrought. Kunkel et al. (2) surplus water that eventually between San Francisco Bay and the U. frequencies during 1895-1905 Oscillation] (Cayan et al.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! to the recent increases.000-year history of cool-season note that since enhanced greenhouse gas forcing of (November-April) precipitation for each climate the climate system was very small in the early years division in Arizona and New Mexico from a network of this record.” More specifically. who in a review of this and other northwestern Great Plains also experienced a pertinent studies states that frequencies of extreme precipitation increase at the end of this 105-year precipitation events in the United States in the late interval. the mid further suggests. increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon In a similar study. 2001.. slightly smaller than late 20th century values.

!Precipitation. therefore.J. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10. Climatic variability in the eastern United States over the past millennium from Chesapeake Bay sediments.. D. there appears to be nothing unusual about the extremes of both wetness and dryness experienced during the twentieth century. and McGinnis.php.. can be found at http://www. 173 . the latter two decades of which the IPCC claims comprise the warmest such period of the past two millennia.. D.. Additional information on this topic. often in “extremely rapid [shifts] occurring over about a decade. and Graham. Holmes. Kerhin. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 277-280. during the twentieth century. Spatial and temporal variability of southern California precipitation over the last 400 yr and relationships to atmospheric circulation patterns. J.” They also note that “the most persistent and extreme wet interval occurred in the 1330s. Cronin et al. D. There is reason to believe such intervals will occur in the future … with or without any further global warming. but it only lasted from approximately 1950 to 1956.. Mestas-Nuñez.. that both wetter ! and drier intervals occurred repeatedly in the past in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Colman.” Cronin et al. Changnon. Patterns and sources of multidecadal oscillations in drought-sensitive tree-ring records from the central and southern Rocky Mountains. and Michaelsen. report that several wet periods comparable to the wet conditions seen in the early 1900s and after 1976 occurred in “1108-20. 2000. N. J. in an effort to examine precipitation variability in the surrounding watershed over the past 1. Enfield. They found a high degree of decadal and multidecadal variability between wet and dry conditions throughout the record. 2002. and Environmental Statistics 7: 536-557. H.” In addition. (2000) measured and analyzed salinity gradients across sediment cores extracted from Chesapeake Bay. Karlsen.L.. 2001. Zimmerman.M. Gray.. Garbrecht.000 years.K.000-year reconstructions in Arizona and New Mexico may also be linked to strong shifts of the coupled ENSO-PDO system. S.. Fastie. and the early 1800s.R.S. Decade-scale precipitation increase in Great Plains at end of 20th century. E. 2001. Combining snow water equivalent data from multiple sources to estimate spatio-temporal trends and compare measurement systems. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 7: 64-75. D. P. like the southwestern United States.J. and Trimble. Geology 28: 3-6.H. describe as being “more severe than twentieth century droughts.B.E.. Dettinger. References Barlow. 1998. some of which Cronin et al. McKee. Ni et al. Pacific decadal variability. with the exception of the Medieval Warm Period (AD 1250-1350). 1993. Annual snowpack patterns across the Rockies: Long-term trends and associated 500-mb synoptic patterns.” whereas the sixteenth century megadrought lasted more than four times longer.Observations:!Glaciers. Haston. Cronin.. S. and Rossel. reveals nothing unusual about precipitation in the U.” Regarding the causes of the different precipitation extremes.. N. T. F.’s work indicates. Biological. With respect to the opposite of drought. R. Decadal variability of precipitation over western North America. J. Cronin et al... L. Cayan..E.” For the particular part of the world covered by their study.B. S. Journal of Climate 10: 1836-1852. and Zimmerman.. 1195-1204. M. when the climate was judged to have been “extremely wet. Nigam.L. S. ENSO.S.D. In another equally long study.co2science. Journal of Climate 14: 2105-2128. and Berberry. S.F. S. Journal of Agricultural. say that “the 1950s drought corresponds to La Niña/-PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] and the opposite polarity [+PDO] corresponds to the post-1976 wet period. Willard. T. 1330-45. it was determined that this region. Cowles. and U. and Doesken. D.T.T. A. C.S. M.” Precipitation over the last two centuries. Diaz. and Jackson.org/ subject/p/precipusa. where regional precipitation totals fluctuated between 25 percent and 30 percent. had experienced several “mega-droughts. Monthly Weather Review 121: 633-647.” lasting from 60-70 years in length.!and!Sea!Level! the late 1800s.!Sea!Ice. was on average greater than what it was during the previous eight centuries. but on the opposite side of the country. summertime precipitation. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. Christ. the 1610s. A. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U. Betancourt. the largest estuary in the United Sates.” which leads them to hypothesize that “the prominent shifts seen in the 1. C. Verardo. however. for example. 2002. like the study of Ni et al.L. A. D. McGeehin.D.’s work. M. Ishman.. J. 1997. Journal of Climate 11: 3148-3166. Ni et al.L. 2003.1029/2002GL016154. drought and streamflow.. A.” They also note that the 1950s drought “was large in scale and severity.

Comrie. and Ramirez. wet synoptic types during the coldest periods of the Little 4. in a part of the planet Kharin and Zwiers. Zhang et Cascade Mountain. M. and Legates. 2001..E. likely due to increased occurrences of cool.” (November-April) precipitation for the Mexican state Zhang et al.J. 2000. 2002. His search. S. however. M.” Consequently. 1995.” This study. increase in total rainfall precipitation and streamflow in the Rio Puerco Basin. 2001.R. slight increase in total precipitation. K. and Ettl.3. Heavy rainfall was most Journal of Climate 14: 2317-2328.A.: Implications for al. Canada. L. G. as the data indicated. Easterling. however. frequent during the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries.K. In addition. Climate Research 20: 19-29.C. even in the face of a covered much of the past century. 2003. conterminous United States. (2001) also studied the temporal of Chihuahua. Potential climate the twentieth century have not been associated with a change impacts on mountain watersheds in the Pacific generalized increase in extreme precipitation over Northwest. F. and Wolock.. rising temperatures have been shown to such a signal in precipitation data from Canada that reduce precipitation extremes. Redmond. D.R. 1999. A. but Molnar. Hughes. Lamoureux says that and nonlinear techniques for reconstruction. 2002. as well as the Funkhouser. Washington. they found “no evidence of any significant long-term changes. J. Taking a longer view of the subject was Lamoureux (2000). that feature of both the frequency and intensity of the 174 . Here in the (Cubasch et al.” Their efforts the United States just above Chihuahua’s northeast revealed that decadal-scale variability was a dominant border. Canada and Mexico Ice Age. Diaz et al. P. Cavazos.A. 1998).. International “more frequent extremes and increased variance in Journal of Climatology 22: 1645-1662. K.J. Geophysical noted. using what they describe as “the most growing at four locations along the western and homogeneous long-term dataset currently available southern borders of Chihuahua and at two locations in for Canadian daily precipitation.” When the annual data were divided into Kunkel. D. 2002. E.1029/2003GL018052. and Wigmosta. Journal of the American Water Resources Canada.E. predicted to be most impacted by CO2-induced global Trenberth. was in vain. Canadian High Arctic. which were the coldest periods of the past Ni.J. Temporal variations of extreme precipitation number of extreme autumn snowfall events was events in the United States: 1895-2000. in his South of the United States. an increasing trend in the K. in their words. Recent trends in statistically insignificant. North American trends in extreme annual number of extreme precipitation events. Nunavut. International Journal of Climatology 14: 517-530. Growth response of increasing trend that was attributed to increases in the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) to climate in the eastern number of non-heavy precipitation events. that “there has been no discernible trend in the created a 346-year history of winter-spring frequency of the most extreme events in Canada.S. Natural Hazards 29: 291-305.’s overall conclusion was that “increases in the climatic change. Kunkel looked for warming. T. and Hubbard. and compared the results accumulations in the western USA. Trends and enabled the reconstruction of a rainfall history for the temperature sensitivity of moisture conditions in the location over the 487-year period from 1500 to 1987. Cornwall between 700hPa height anomalies and 1 April snowpack Island. U.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Kunkel. yield occurred during the 17th and 19th centuries. This exercise revealed.R. G.R. This history was suggestive of a small. 2001. concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases during Leung.S. Zwiers and Kharin. Yonetani and Gordon.M. Kunkel (2003) reported that “several studies have contradicts the IPCC’s claim that extreme argued that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations precipitation events become more frequent and more will result in an increase of heavy precipitation severe with increasing temperature. (2002) words. over the course of the record. with rainfall events recorded at a nearby weather station over the period 1948-1978. 1998.7. who analyzed varved lake McCabe. based on earlywood width characteristics of heavy precipitation events across chronologies of more than 300 Douglas fir trees Canada. (extreme plus non-extreme events) revealed a slightly Kusnierczyk. and 400 years in the Canadian High Arctic. G. but precipitation. A. which comparison McCabe.. 2003.” Association 35: 1463-1471. Relationships sediments obtained from Nicolay Lake. like the others discussed above. seasonal data. Ecoscience 9: 544-551. Cool-season precipitation in the southwestern USA since AD 1000: Comparison of linear Arctic as a whole.. and an investigation into precipitation totals Research Letters 30: 10. K.

1998..E. P. and one in the late 1660s and early 1670s. Water Resources Research 36: 309-318.!Precipitation. V. X. with respect to the entire 346 years. it was not. Finally. Kunkel. normal for the remainder of the record. and Zwiers. Raper.D. Trenberth..co2science. Streamflow Model projections suggest that CO2-induced global warming will adversely impact earth’s water resources by inducing large changes in global streamflow characteristics. (Eds. Spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation events over Canada. can be found at http://www. 2001. Stouffer. precipitation remained at. S. one in the late 1790s and early 1800s. A recent global study of this issue is Milliman et al.T. 2001. Hogg.J. Five centuries of interannual sediment yield and rainfall-induced erosion in the Canadian High Arctic recorded in lacustrine varves. T. one in the late 1720s and early 1730s.. Stahle. Consequently.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. M. Journal of Climate 13: 3670-3688. Meehl. Dix.. Chihuahua (Mexico) winter-spring precipitation reconstructed from tree-rings.W. 1998. Griggs.4. M. Yonetani. Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. 2003. and Yap. V. H. Journal of Climate 14: 17651779. Contributions of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. and Kharin. many scientists are examining proxy streamflow records in an effort to determine how temperature changes of the twentieth century may or may not have impacted this aspect of the planet’s hydrologic cycle.. Journal of Climate 11: 2200-2222. K.. F. References Cubasch. K.” Although this fact makes it sound like the twentieth century was highly anomalous in this regard. W. Zhang. floods.. additionally report that “the longest drought indicated by the smoothed reconstruction lasted 17 years (1948-1964). Kharin.. and there were four very similar dry periods interspersed throughout the preceding two-and-a-half centuries: one in the late 1850s and early 1860s. Senior. issues that are addressed in greater detail in Chapter 6..A. F.S.. Chihuahua’s precipitation history did not differ in any substantial way during the twentieth century from what it was over the prior quarter of a millennium. so the three years were not representative of long-term droughty conditions. C. Diaz..!Sea!Ice. U. Projections of future climate change. there was no long-term trend in the data. Ding.W.. and following the major drought of the 1950s.” which again makes the twentieth century look unusual in this regard. who computed temporal discharge trends for 137 rivers over the last half of the twentieth century that provide what they call a “reasonable 175 . 1647-1992. X. In: Houghton. D.E. for several of the years of that interval. With respect to the twentieth century alone. nor was there any evidence of a significant departure from that trend over the course of the twentieth century. Lamoureux. 2000.. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.!and!Sea!Level! ! “three of the 5 worst winter-spring drought years in the past three-and-a-half centuries are estimated to have occurred during the 20th century. 2002. Noguer. Maskell.. Climate Research 22: 237-244. Natural Hazards 29: 291-305. E. Additional information on this topic...K. Y. 4.Observations:!Glaciers. North American trends in extreme precipitation. S. This is related to forecasts of droughts. van der Linden. Two of those three worst drought years occurred during a decadal period of average to slightly above-average precipitation.V. precipitation values were only slightly below normal. Diaz et al. A. UK. suggesting that neither twenteith century anthropogenic CO2 emissions nor 20th-century warming—whether natural or human-induced— significantly impacted precipitation in that part of North America.org/ subject/p/precipnortham. Climatic Change 39: 667-694. (2008). However. Therrell. J.A.J.V. Dai.J. Cambridge University Press. and Cleaveland. M. 2000.A. Zwiers. there was a long period of high winter-spring precipitation that stretched from 1905 to 1932. and Mekis.php. Changes in the extremes of climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2doubling. G.W.B.D. or just slightly above. K. As a result. M. and Gordon.J. S. G. D. K. Cambridge. Boer. Journal of Climate 14: 1923-1936. R. C. and Johnson. Simulated changes in the frequency of extremes and regional features of seasonal/annual temperature and precipitation when atmospheric CO2 is doubled.C. and precipitation variability. Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Implications for rainfall rates with climate change. Noda.

including region”—there is no evidence that the warming of the reviews on streamflow not discussed here. with respect to both series of statistical analyses on more than 600 daily standard deviations and five-year intervals of extreme streamflow records from the European Water Archive wet and dry periods.” which statistically unchanged. they state that this observation “does no clear indication that streamflow drought conditions not demonstrate unequivocal evidence of an increase in Europe have generally become more severe or in precipitation as suggested by some climate frequent in the time periods studied. write that extended from 1637 to 1997. (2006) report that “absolutely dated tree-ringfive researchers. “neither discharge nor precipitation changed the four researchers discovered there was “much significantly over the last half of the 20th century. Loire. (2001) performed a 1651-1995. Rhine. Wesaer. (2001) used tree-ring chronologies Current Warm Period.. 1962-1995.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! evidence for solar influences in these reconstructions global representation. 2008. therefore—which the temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Neman. Oder.H..” several reports on recent droughts in Europe. Jones.” including the Goeta. trend change in long-term discharge series (1810Global and Planetary Change 62: 187-194. precipitation and streamflow histories for the period In another study.org/subject/s/subject precipitation and streamflow.php under the heading Streamflow.co2science. “possible 176 .” Then.” basins represent about 55 percent of the land area Working in another part of the same region. researchers say “is representative of the central Asian Additional information on this topic.4. they report that “global onand an individual model was made using the longest land precipitation between 1951 and 2000 remained of the five tree-ring records (1340-2002). This work revealed. In analyzing these data. there were no long-term trends from northeastern Mongolia to develop annual in the discharge rates of the major rivers of Europe.” although they say that the periods: 1962-1990.” as their combined drainage for northeastern Mongolia.” In addition.D.” hydrological cycle. models. Farnsworth. Climatic and anthropogenic factors This latter analysis did not show “any significant affecting river discharge to the global ocean. duration. K. For those rivers with sufficiently long and accurate data series. J. (2003) analyzed the annual discharge rates of selected large rivers of the world Reference for recurring cycles of wet and dry periods. “between 1951 and 2000 cumulative width chronologies from five sampling sites in westdischarge for the 137 rivers remained statistically central Mongolia were used in precipitation models unchanged. wider variation in the long-term tree-ring record than offering little support to a global intensification of the in the limited record of measured precipitation. Danube.1.D. they report their In the rest of this section we review studies for streamflow history indicates that “the wettest 5-year Eurasia and North America. P.L. Davi draining into the global ocean. in a simple and effort led to a reconstruction of streamflow that straightforward conclusion. from 1937 to 2003. In addition.” Spectral analysis of the data also revealed they report discovering that the number of trends significant periodicities of 12 and 20-24 years. Vistule.” while “the most extended wet period [was] 1794streamflow regimes that might reasonably have been 1802 and . 1930-1995.. 1990) in representative European rivers.” To the contrary. These latter observations are most interesting. pointing towards decreasing streamflow deficits or suggesting. there is Nevertheless. they also derived long-term discharge rate trends. L.” such as is generally claimed to which for the region they studied covered the period be a consequence of CO2-induced global warming. and Smith. can be twentieth century has led to increased variability in found at http://www.. This protocol indicated that “despite extended wet periods in more recent decades. Milliman et al. Eurasia that even over the 180-year time period that saw the demise of the Little Ice Age and the ushering in of the Pederson et al. Pekarova et al. Rhone. and period of instrumental data are not unusual relative to frequency of drought over the following four time the prior record. 1951-2000. Elbe. Hisdal et al. _s. extended dry period [was] 1778-83.C. In the words of the et al. Milliman. Xu. and reconstructions “appear to show more frequent 1911-1995.” For caused by twentieth century changes in air this part of Mongolia.. in the researchers’ words. that “variations over the recent to examine trends in the severity. seeking to discover if period was 1764-68 and the driest period was 1854there have been any twentieth century changes in 58. and Po. K. for they indicate 4.

” adding that “from 12 unusually complete records from 1935-2002 we see that the minimum flow increases are greatest since ~1985. All six metrics related to streamflow trends exhibit changes contrary to IPCCpromoted scenarios of climate change. In a contemporaneous study. and Kolyma). in general. Cluis and Laberge (2001) utilized streamflow records stored in the databank of the Global Runoff Data Center at the Federal Institute of Hydrology in Koblenz (Germany) to see if there were any recent changes in river runoff of the type predicted by IPCC scenarios of global warming. Yenisey. Lena. precipitation increases significantly.” so that “some researchers [have] even advanced the issue of [a] climatic shift from warmdry to warm-wet in northwest China (Shi.!Precipitation. where trends did exist 72 percent of them were downward. their study encompassed 78 rivers said to be “geographically distributed throughout the whole Asia-Pacific region.!Sea!Ice. MacDonald et al. Bruce et al. Looking back towards Asia. Smith et al.” focusing on providing “a first continental-scale assessment of low-flow trends since the 1930s. 1999. In another study. using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test.. 2003).” with the ultimate expectation that total river discharge within the region would significantly increase in response to global warming.” Smith et al. and in doing so. Ob’. in the words of the five researchers. Likewise.” They report there are actually weak negative correlations between discharge and temperature on some of the rivers over the period of their study. (2007) present “a first analysis of a new dataset of daily discharge records from 138 small to medium-sized unregulated rivers in northern Eurasia. concluded that their real-world findings are not “in accordance with the anticipated ideas” that led them to conduct their study. where trends did exist 69 percent of them were downward. Cao et al. “river discharges in the QinghaiTibet Plateau.” while temporally the mean start and end dates of the river flow records were 1936 ± 5 years and 1988 ± 1 year. analyzed annual discharge data for five large rivers of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the period 1956-2000.” Cao et al. reveals that over much of northern Eurasia. Dvina. 177 . Pechora.Observations:!Glaciers. Indeed. the two researchers determined that mean river discharges were unchanged in 67 percent of the cases investigated.” Results indicate that “a clear result of this analysis is that. on balance. the disconnect between streamflow and global warming in this and many other studies argues strongly against the claimed consequences of global warming. and “are thus still within the range of long-term natural variability. the monthly minimum values of daily discharge. 2001.” Because they could detect “no increase in the stream discharge in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with global warming.!and!Sea!Level! ! fewer drought events exceeded the number of trends pointing towards increasing streamflow deficits or more drought events.” stating that in these scenarios “under global warming. predictions of more drought seem rather off the mark. where they conducted their streamflow study. on the other hand. Rahmstorf and Ganopolski. Moreover. Minimum river discharges. they have been increasing “in summer as well as winter and in non-permafrost as well as permafrost terrain. as daily low flows of the majority of northern Eurasian rivers have been increasing. (2007) used “tree ring records from a network of sites extending across northern Eurasia to provide reconstructions [extending back to AD 1800] of annual discharge for the October to September water year for the major Eurasian rivers entering the Arctic Ocean (S. (2006) note that “both theoretical arguments and models suggest that net high-latitude precipitation increases in proportion to increases in mean hemispheric temperature (Houghton et al. 2002).” Writing about the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.. were unchanged in 53 percent of the cases investigated.” Results indicated that annual discharges of the mid to late twentieth century previously reported are not significantly greater than discharges experienced over the preceding 200 years. the claimed magnitude of global warming. where trends did exist. maximum river discharges were unchanged in 77 percent of the cases investigated. mainly in the middle and west regions of northwest China. or ‘low flows. 62 percent of them were upward. Cao et al.” In addition. they say their “longer-term discharge records do not indicate a consistent positive significant correlation between discharge [and] Siberian temperature.” with the greatest increases occurring “since ~1985. such as increased streamflow and increases in streamflow variability that would lead to more floods and droughts. or both of these standard claims. they found that over the period of their study. As a test of these climate-model predictions. Spatially. have no obvious change with the increase of the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature. As a result of their analyses.’ have risen in northern Eurasia during the 20th century.

which we have replotted in Figure 4. and lower bounds. it can be seen that the upper bound of the data does not change over the entire range of 178 .4. to Bruce. the warming-induced increase in freshwater discharge from the six rivers could rise by as much as 1260 km3/year (we calculate 5. Peterson et al. One that we Clearly.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! global SAT variability. River discharge changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. this scenario is currently not as highly (2002).1. can be found at http://www. (their Figure 4).” according to Peterson et al. example. Holmes. including relationship to the great length that is implied by the reviews of newer publications as they become IPCC’s predicted high-end warming of 5. regarded as it was when Peterson et al.org/ remainder of the current century..4.4°C. SAT Additional information on this topic.e.” Although still over the period 1936 to 1999. Ob’. Adapted from Peterson et al.’s 63 data points. et al. suggesting that 0.1. Qin.8°C. discharge of the six rivers seems to rise by about 212 km3/year in response to a 1°C increase in mean global ! air temperature. Y.8°C. J. global SAT increased by 0. Lena. a temperature increase of 5.2°C the globe’s mean annual surface air temperature beyond the temperature of their warmest data point (SAT). i.. for a number of reasons. annual global surface air temperature (SAT) the great oceanic “conveyor belt. extending their Arctic freshwater discharge vs.. and Severnaya Dvina)—which drain about less than two-tenths of a degree above the warmest of two-thirds of the Eurasian Arctic landmass—against Peterson et al. Then.. Kang.8°C over the available. Consider. It is implausible to extend the References relationship they derived across that small temperature range fully 14-and-a-half times further. J. (2002) plotted annual geographic and climatic configuration. which constitutes one of the driving forces of anomaly vs. E. global SAT plot of Peterson et al. for subject/s/sfrteurasia. anomaly vs. Science Consider also the Eurasian river discharge 298: 2171-2173.. Annual Eurasian Arctic river discharge water.M. Cao. increasing global SAT that the two bounds intersect Kolyma. real-world data do not support the have highlighted is the difficulty of accepting the hydrologic negativism the IPCC associates with both tremendous extrapolation Peterson et al. that “over the period of the discharge record. The lower values of the combined discharge of the six largest bound.8°C x 212 km3/year/°C = 1230 km3/year). and Li. after which they ran a simple linear regression may be all the further any relationship derived from through the data and determined that the combined their data may validly be extrapolated. D. 5.W. suggesting the very real Worried about the possibility that enhanced possibility that the upper bound corresponds to a freshwater delivery to the Arctic ocean by increased maximum Eurasian river discharge rate that cannot be river flow could shut down the ocean’s thermohaline exceeded in the real world under its current circulation.P. The link between this conclusion and the postulated shutting down of the thermohaline circulation of the world’s oceans resides in the hypothesis that the delivery of such a large addition of freshwater to the North Atlantic Ocean may slow—or even stop—that location’s production of new deep Figure 4. they calculated that for the high-end global warming predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to occur by AD 2100. which represents a 70 percent increase over the mean discharge rate of the past several years. J. 2006. Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. on the other hand. Chinese Science Enclosing their data with simple straight-line upper Bulletin 51: 594-600. conducted their research. discussed. 2002. R.php.co2science. McClelland. Pechora. make in real-world and simulated global warming in Eurasia. rises so rapidly with Eurasian Arctic rivers (Yenisey.

Lammers. Y. McClelland. Climate change and trend detection in selected rivers within the Asia-Pacific region. Journal of Hydrology 274: 62-79. H.D.. Hidalgo et al. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: 10.!and!Sea!Level! ! Cluis. Curtis.M.. Water International 26: 411-424.I. A. Meteorological Press. Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. K. 2006..” going all the way back to the early 1500s.. E. making it easier for them to see there had been “a near-centennial return period of extreme drought events in this region. Pederson. G. R. is not without precedence in the tree ring 179 . R.. they found their results were similar to those of the earlier 1976 study.!Sea!Ice.300 years in the northern Gulf of Mexico for evidence of variations in Mississippi River outflow characteristics over this time period. Miklanek.M. 2001. P. Ding.M. C. R. 3. S. L.!Precipitation. R. (2000) used a form of principal components analysis to reconstruct a history of streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin from information obtained from tree-ring data. D.” spawned by an export of extremely moist gulf air to midcontinental North America driven by naturally occurring same-time-scale oscillations in Gulf of Mexico ocean currents. 4. Peterson. 2. Kremenetski.C. 1. L. Jacoby.C. (Eds.. Griggs.. and Hidalgo. and 300 years before present. 2001. K. Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model. “using an expanded tree-ring network and longer calibration records than in previous efforts. G. G.. and Rahmstorf..2. D.700.T.200.. 2003. (1999) studied siliciclastic sediment grain size. Hidalgo et al. Pekarova. 3. Shiklomanov. Climatic Change 43: 353-367.C.E. Smith. 1999. Rahmstorf. Beijing. B. Colorado near Cisco.. An Assessment of the Issues of Climatic Shift from Warm-Dry to Warm-Wet in Northwest China. L. Pavelsky. Davi. N.. I. Cambridge. and Pekar.I. P... C. Cambridge University Press. J. Tallaksen.V. Utah. D’Arrigo.. 2001. Cook. Smith. Holmes. T.. but that their newer reconstruction responded with better fidelity to periods of below-average streamflow or regional drought. and Demuth. MacDonald. and Laberge. planktonic foraminiferal and pteropod relative frequencies. Rising minimum daily flows in northern Eurasian rivers: A growing influence of groundwater in the high-latitude hydrologic cycle. Jacoby. 2007. In doing so. and Buckley..R. Science 298: 2171-2173. B.. These particular extreme events were in no way related to variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration. H. were likely “episodes of multidecadal duration..C. San Juan near Bluff.M. and Baatarbileg. 2003.000.1029/2006JG000327. Utah. and Colorado at Lees Ferry. and the carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of two species of planktonic foraminifera in cored sequences of hemipelagic muds deposited over the past 5. 2007.K. after which they compared their results with the streamflow reconstruction of Stockton and Jacoby (1976). MacDonald.M. These fluvial events... Shi. S. Vorosmarty.G. as they occurred over a period of near-constancy in this atmospheric property.J. A.Observations:!Glaciers. N. Shiklomanov.1029/2006JG000333. Recent Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean in the context of longer-term dendrohydrological records. Journal of Climate 19: 288-299.500. Extension of drought records for Central Asia using tree rings: West-Central Mongolia. S. (2006) generated updated proxy reconstructions of water-year streamflow for four key streamflow gauges in the Upper Colorado River Basin (Green River at Green River. Arizona). Journal of Climate 14: 872-881.J. 2. A. J. Y.M.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Hydrometeorological reconstructions for northeastern Mongolia derived from tree rings: 1651-1995.. Woodhouse et al. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: 10. N.4.500. 2002.000. Hisdal. Houghton.B. Have streamflow droughts in Europe become more severe or frequent? International Journal of Climatology 21: 317-333. Stahl.” By these means they determined that the major drought of 2000-2004.J. Spatial and temporal runoff oscillation analysis of the main rivers of the world during the 19th-20th centuries. Utah. North America Brown et al. in their estimation.W. Shiklomanov. and Ganopolski. The results of their research indicated the occurrence of large megafloods—which they describe as having been “almost certainly larger than historical floods in the Mississippi watershed”—at 4. J.B. A. G.’s work provided additional evidence for the existence of past droughts that surpassed the worst of the twentieth century. and Lammers..A. “as measured by 5-year running means of water-year total flow at Lees Ferry .

” and that “average reconstructed annual flow few extremely small flows during the periods 1692for the period 1844-1848 was lower. were McCabe and Wolock (2002). report that “two additional periods. In addition. The periods 1637-1691 and 1741-1897 showed no statistically significant trend. the land-use conversion ring data collected by Stockton and Jacoby (1976) increased peak discharges from high-frequency floods from the Uinta Mountains of Utah to reconstruct by 200 to 400 percent.” and it is difficult to River hydroclimate.” The eventually becomes streamflow.S.” in the words of the three researchers. opposite of what the IPCC would have us believe. the United States has gotten [have] occurred in the past. while for the third there was that the natural variability in 20th century no change. As the world has warmed more severe than any 20th to 21st century event over the past century. mean annual discharge in the Ashley Creek watershed surface runoff has been decreasing.500 “have a 10% or greater chance of being drier.” experienced reduced numbers of extremely large Other notable findings of Knox’s study include flows and increased numbers of extremely small the observation that since the 1940s and early 1950s. indicative of persistent drought or near-drought the magnitudes of the largest daily flows have been conditions. indicative of wetter conditions. sustained describe them.” They conclude that “droughts conceive of a better result. Of greatest Knox (2001) studied how conversion of the U. Since the late 1930s. The decrease “is for the period 1637 to 1970. there was an overall 180 . but less extreme. al. the conversion of the 19th century. where floods and droughts occur. They found many more up-trends than downeight. Meko et plant growth. Southeast. as they “these analyses demonstrate that severe.” and that six other periods stations (including data from more than 1. By contrast. (2001). who for the period 300-600 years long. have a 25% or greater chance of streamflow for 395 climate-sensitive stream gage being as dry as 1999-2004.” This finding is just the wetter in the mean.” “only in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the “Overall.” and that “the greatest 1800s influenced subsequent watershed runoff and frequency of extreme low flow events occurred in the soil erosion rates.” They also 1740 and 1898-1945. some of which stations occurred in the past. but less variable at the extremes. Carson and Munroe (2005) used treesettlement times.” Their individual gages) located throughout the work revealed that “longer duration droughts have conterminous United States.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! abundance of extremely large flows and relatively record.S.” there was a statistically significant increase in the first The authors note that “paleoclimatic studies indicate two of these parameters. however. flows. 1914. and eleven consecutive years with flows below trends in streamflow nationally. is droughts are a defining feature of Upper Colorado getting wetter. and (3) the water results indicated that “the 20th century gage record deficit that must be supplied by irrigation to grow does not fully represent the range of streamflow vegetation at an optimum rate. significance in this regard was probably the fact that Upper Mississippi River Valley from prairie and “multi-year drought events more severe than the forest to crop and pasture land by settlers in the early 1950s drought have occurred.” These and other of their findings.” according to departures from the long-term mean were noted Knox.” while citing in conterminous United States.” with a “clustering of extreme event region’s natural landscape to primarily agricultural years in the 1840s and 1850s. Woodhouse and Lukas (2006) developed “a Also studying the conterminous United States network of 14 annual streamflow reconstructions.” use boosted surface erosion rates to values three to Working in an adjacent region of the western eight times greater than those characteristic of preUnited States. Significant persistent not associated with climatic causes. and there has been no support of this statement the studies of Stockton and increase in the amount of water required for optimum Jacoby (1976). Smith and Stockton (1981). (2) the surplus water that from new and existing tree-ring chronologies. indicative of the fact that water has [streamflow] gage records is likely only a subset of actually become more available within the the full range of natural variability. indicate “the conterminous U. Initially. for gages in the Upper Colorado 1895-1999 evaluated (1) precipitation minus annual and South Platte River basins in Colorado generated potential evapotranspiration. This exercise revealed characteristics seen in the prior two to five centuries. who reports that “an analysis of temporal throughout the 334-year record of reconstructed variation in storm magnitudes for the same period streamflow. with slight decreases the 1906-1995 average. and Woodhouse (2001). in the early 1500s Lins and Slack (1999) analyzed secular trends in and early 1600s.” and “the Lees Ferry possessed datasets stretching all the way back to reconstruction contains one sequence each of six.

” and they determined.” which shift was “related to a regional step increase in April-July temperatures during the mid-1980s. there was no trend at the annual timescale. we have a situation where global warming has coincided with a streamflow trend that is leading to the best of all possible worlds: one of greater water availability. since water quality stresses are usually largest during low flow periods.!and!Sea!Level! decreasing at the same time that the magnitude of the average daily baseflow has been increasing.” Over in Minnesota.” as they describe it. 1999.” As a result.Observations:!Glaciers. Molnar and Ramirez (2001) conducted a detailed watershed-based analysis of precipitation and streamflow trends for the period 1948-97 in a semiarid region of the southwestern United States. that the “low flows are changing at a significant rate in a significant number of stations and at the highest rates in the past 20 years”. Novotny and Stefan (2006) analyzed streamflow records (extending up to the year 2002.. the Rio Puerco Basin of New Mexico. peak flow due to snow melt runoff.” However.S. they discovered that “the shift to earlier SMR has not been a gradual trend. they say “other good news is that spring floods (from snowmelt). there is a tendency to attribute these changes to global warming because of large correlations between linear trends in SMR timing and the increasing trend in global temperature. but that in most cases “the trends are not monotonic but periodic. and that “this finding matches results of other studies which found low flows increasing in the upper Midwest region including Minnesota (Lins and Slack. they say. respectively). but appears to have occurred as a step change during the mid-1980s. Minnesota River and Mississippi River basins during both the summer and winter”. Once again.” Therefore. “a statistically significant increasing trend in precipitation in the basin was detected.” In doing so. monthly totals increased in lowflow months and decreased in high-flow months. the two researchers found that “the timing of SMR for many rivers in the western United States has shifted to earlier in the snowmelt season. indicating a trend toward fewer flood and drought conditions. but with fewer and smaller floods and droughts.” but that sevenday low flows or base flows are “increasing in the Red River of the North.” Likewise. 7-day low flow in summer.!Precipitation.” Rood et al. better water quality. As others before them had previously learned. McCabe and Clark ! concluded that “the observed change in the timing of SMR in the western United States is a regional response to natural climatic variability and may not be related to global trends in temperature. have not been increasing significantly. as well as any stepwise changes that may have occurred in each data series. using daily streamflow data for 84 stations in the western U. they conducted a number of analyses that enabled them to determine each station’s mean streamflow trend over the past half century.” In addition.” Most significantly. with lengths ranging from 53 to 101 years) obtained from 36 gauging stations in five major river basins of the state. Shifting to a study of snowmelt runoff (SMR). (2005) performed an empirical analysis of streamflow trends for rivers fed by relatively pristine watersheds in the central Rocky Mountain Region of North America that extends from Wyoming in the United States through British 181 . among other benefits. as might have been expected. McCabe and Clark (2005) note that most prior studies of this phenomenon in the western United States have depended on trend analyses to identify changes in timing. and more recreational opportunities.” as “it could provide more aquatic habitat. In the case of streamflow. 2000).!Sea!Ice. with essentially no change at the high-intensity end of the spectrum.” The two researchers write that “an increase in mean annual streamflow in Minnesota would be welcome. 7-day low flow in winter. but they indicate that “trend analyses are unable to determine if a trend is gradual or a step change. “At the annual timescale. the largest floods in Minnesota. and after discussing various other possible reasons for what they had discovered. because when “changes in SMR timing have been identified by linear trends. that “the mean annual stream flow changes are well correlated with total annual precipitation changes. they say that “water quality and aquatic ecosystems should benefit from increases in low flows in both the summer and winter. peak flow due to rainfall.. deriving histories of seven annual streamflow statistics: “mean annual flow. each with complete water-year information for the period 1950-2003.” This trend was driven primarily by an increase in the number of rainy days in the moderate rainfall intensity range. they found significant trends in each of the seven streamflow statistics throughout the state. they found that peak flood flows due to snowmelt runoff “are not changing at a significant rate throughout the state.” This fact is crucial. Douglas et al. as well as high and extreme flow days (number of days with flow rates greater than the mean plus one or two standard deviations.

for the cause of the precipitation/river discharge Saskatchewan. Then.” generally remained above average. This 2003. In contrast. statistically significant links were found ensemble of climate models suggest that runoff in the between the decline and the Arctic Oscillation.. plus precipitation and grain sizes of sediment cores obtained from Pine temperature data from Environment Canada’s Lake. he notes that similar “changes in annual and the Little Ice Age (about AD 1500-1900). In and non-parametric statistical analyses to assess addition. These facts begins by noting that the study of Burn (1994) led the two scientists to conclude that the changes in suggested that a doubling of the air’s CO2 content river discharge they observed were driven “primarily could increase the severity and frequency of droughts by precipitation rather than evapotranspiration. they explored the influence of global warmth and coolness. after assessing both North America during concomitant periods of relative variability and trends. research effort revealed the existence of periods of This work revealed. George.” In several-centuries-long epochs that corresponded to addition. Alberta. but that results from an decline. the El Winnipeg River region of southern Manitoba. Manitoba). The most predominant departures included precipitation during summer and autumn. 2005). could Oscillation. while most predictions that [this] region will become warmer and recently. Winnipeg River watershed from the Water Survey of Also in Canada. Campbell (2002) analyzed the Canada’s HYDAT data archive. 182 . the results of this study increase 20-30 percent by the middle of the twentyindicate there is nothing unusual about the fourfirst century (Milly et al.000-year mean. a standardized median grain-size history nearly a century of annual discharge (ending about revealed that the highest rates of stream discharge 2002) along 31 river reaches that drain this part of during the past 4. and the Pacific Decadal as runoff in central and northern Manitoba. with winter streamflow going up by 60record at decadal.5 percent lowest rates of streamflow were observed around AD per year. in the words of Rood et al. as well Niño/Southern Oscillation.” primarily because of “increases in scales. respectively... when median grain sizes were nearly 2 standard “contrasts with the many current climate change deviations below the 4. This finding. where about threeThe Pine Lake sediment record convincingly quarters of the country is drained by rivers that demonstrates the reality of the non-CO2-induced discharge their water into the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. It also demonstrates there is nothing unusual the four decades of their study. with four of them deviations above the 4. Working entirely in Canada. These analyses revealed that river Ice Age approximately 300-350 years ago. both increasing and decreasing grain size (a proxy for that “mean annual flows have increased by 58% since moisture availability) throughout the 4.000-year mean. the winter streamflow are observed in records from both Medieval Warm Period (about AD 700-1300). Déry and Wood (2005) analyzed millennial-scale climatic oscillation that has hydrometric data from 64 northern Canadian rivers alternately brought several-century-long periods of that drain more than half of the country’s landmass dryness and wetness to the southern Alberta region of for the period 1964-2003. the exhibiting recent decline rates exceeding 0. George obtained daily and monthly rates. in the words of St. St. 1100. grain size over the past 150 years has wetter in the near-future. They applied both parametric and the Roman Warm Period (about BC 900-100).5 standard an average of 0.000 years.22 percent per year. To help resolve this decade-long trends in northern Canada river discharge dichotomy. to provide a non-vegetation-based Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Data archive.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Dark Ages Cold Period (about BC 100 to AD 700).000-year 1924 . high-resolution record of climate variability for this and analyzed them for trends over the period 1924part of North America over the past 4.” As in the prairie provinces of Canada (Alberta. Consequently. This work indicated there was a streamflow studies reviewed here that did not stretch statistically significant mean decline of approximately all the way back in time to the Medieval Warm 10 percent in the discharge rates of the 64 rivers over Period. which means there is nothing in these trends streamflow data from nine gauge stations within the that would suggest a global warming impact. which was nearly about the region’s current moisture status. centennial. and millennial time 110%. identical to the decline in precipitation falling over In a final study from Canada. George (2007) northern Canada between 1964 and 2000.000 years occurred during the Little North America. Columbia in Canada. St. During flows in this region declined over the past century by this time. the regulated and unregulated portions of the watershed.. revealing a large-scale teleconnections as possible drivers of the relationship that was not evident in the prior trends they detected. grain sizes were about 2.

Canada: Trends. Dery and Wood (2005).W. J.A.. (2005).” Countering these positive findings.” Thus.K. Long-term surface-water supply and streamflow trends in the Upper Colorado River Basin based on tree-ring analysis. 2000. 2002. Journal of Hydrology 160: 53-70.J.V. 1976. E. and Rood et al.J.” citing the studies of Westmacott and Burn (1997). C.. P. Smith. S. J. The Holocene 15: 602-611. Journal of Hydrology 306: 215-233.. Dunne. Rood. Samuelson. M.C. Journal of Climate 14: 2317-2328. Consequently. Recent trends in precipitation and streamflow in the Rio Puerco Basin.org/ subject/s/sfrtnorthamerica. 2002. including reviews of newer publications as they become available.C. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 37: 1029-1039.P. Geophysical Research Letters 32: doi:10. Water Resources Bulletin 17: 939-947. they are positive. Decreasing river discharge in northern Canada.V.B. 1994. Agricultural influence on landscape sensitivity in the Upper Mississippi River Valley.!Sea!Ice.. and Wood. Stockton. H.S. or are indicative of. Not only are real-world observations nearly all not undesirable. although based on the observed trends he discovered. D.H. Paleoceanography 14: 498-510. J. G. extremes and climate linkages. 1999.!Precipitation. Douglas.A. Nature 438: 347-350.D.C. Trends and variability in snowmelt runoff in the western United States. and Clark.H. Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. and Jacoby Jr.. Journal of Hydrology 240: 90-105. Molnar.M. C. St.P. 2005. Weber. Burn. In the vast majority of cases..A.J.G. Additional information on this topic. however. northeastern Utah: Implications for palaeohydrology of the southern Uinta Mountains. A. and Wywrot. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 227-230. Meko. J. Institute of 183 . and Wolock. McCabe. S.php. George. and Kroll. 869 from tree rings. K.P. 2005. E. 1981. and typically extremely so. Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin 18. H. E. G. It is anybody’s guess as to what will actually occur in the years and decades ahead. 2000.R.F. G. R.N. 2007. E. St. Campbell.K. Vogel. more frequent and/or more severe floods and droughts. Piechota. Hidalgo. L. Twentieth-century decline in streamflow from the hydrographic apex of North America. Déry.!and!Sea!Level! ! which point to an underlying cause related to climate. can be found at http://www. Marine evidence for episodic Holocene megafloods in North America and the northern Gulf of Mexico. and Vecchia. J. 2005. Sacramento River flow reconstructed to A. D.M. Global patterns of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Catena 42: 193-224. C.D. so too are there conflicting reports about past streamflow trends in this region. Late Holocene lake sedimentology and climate change in southern Alberta.. Streamflow trends in the United States.M. M. Climate Research 20: 19-29.C and Munroe. Streamflow in the Winnipeg River basin. just as there are conflicting predictions about the future water status of portions of the prairie provinces of Canada. and Stefan. Canada. Novotny. C. McCabe.Observations:!Glaciers.M. S. we note there appear to be few real-world data that provide any significant support for the contention that CO2-induced global warming will lead to more frequent and/or more severe increases and decreases in streamflow that result in. 1999. T. P. George believes “the potential threats to water supply faced by the Canadian Prairie Provinces over the next few decades will not include decreasing streamflow in the Winnipeg River basin. C. Milly.L. Baisan. and Stockton. and Ramirez. Stream flow in Minnesota: Indicator of climate change. Water Resources Research 36: 3241-3249. Therrell. 2005.1029/2005GL022845. P.. and Dracup. Yulianti and Burn (1998). 2001. Kennett.A.. 2005.M. Knox. 2006.G. and Ingram B. observed trends appear to be just the opposite of what is predicted to occur. Tree-ring based streamflow reconstruction for Ashley Creek. K. Journal of Hydrology 332: 396-411. and Slack. D. J. 2001. Reconstructed stream flow for the Salt and Verde Rivers from tree-ring data.W. 2001. M. St. G. H. especially in Manitoba. Lins. Carson.C. Alternative principal components regression procedures for dendrohydrologic reconstructions. Journal of Hydrology 334: 319-333. and Hughes. References Brown.D.co2science.F. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6: 476-482. Hydrologic effects of climate change in western Canada. George says there are “reports of declining flow for many rivers in the adjacent Canadian prairies. Quaternary Research 49: 96-101. J. Trends and temperature sensitivity of moisture conditions in the conterminous United States.

1 Mean Global Sea Levels and.” processes that cause variations in mean global sea Church et al.T. Sea-level Rise surface. them that “an acceleration took place in the recent past..” With respect to the last 150 years. J.. J..” 4. 2000).” Westmacott. D.H.8 ± 0.M. 1997. and Lukas. Journal of the American Water Resources certainty that sea-level rise is indeed accelerating.J.A. glacial eustatic response to the melting of continental Yulianti. Los Angeles. they noted that rates-of-rise that were approximately six times greater 184 . Tree-ring reconstruction of mean altimetry and in situ temperature data have their own annual streamflow for Middle Boulder Creek.A. “there is no fear of any massive future flooding as claimed in most global warming Cazenave et al. D.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Geophysics and Planetary Physics. uncertainties and it is still difficult to affirm with USA. oscillation..1029/2005WR004455.5. “lasted. 2001.5 mm/year. which suggested to California. and Meko. with Colorado River Basin. In addition. Gray. University of than the mean four-decade rate. to estimate monthly the rate of thermal-induced sea-level rise over the past distributions of large-scale sea-level variability and 40 years was about 0. 2006.H. such as former U. they determined that historical tide gauge data.” but that “sea-level records are now between climatic warming and low streamflow in the dominated by the irregular redistribution of water Prairies region of Canada. in his words. “the recent rise effects on the hydrologic regime within the Churchillmay just correspond to the rising branch of a decadal Nelson River Basin. Climate change However.5. variations in ocean current intensity and in the atmospheric circulation system and maybe even in some deformation of the gravitational potential 4. all sea-level curves ring reconstructions of Colorado streamflow for water are dominated by a general rise in sea level in true resource planning. likely related to warming of the world ocean. Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper altimetry data would be necessary to detect. Mörner. and Burn.R.” In Association 37: 561-570. who call for urgent action to This stasis. (2000) yielded was 1. this rise seems to have presentations of those. Journal of Hydrology 202: 263-279. We then examine closely the event of these years and (3) 1998-2000 with an various scenarios proposed whereby melting ice irregular record of no clear tendency. Investigating links ice caps. important of all. fact.” Thereafter. he reports that “the mean eustatic rise in sea level for the period The possibility of large sea-level rises as a result of 1850-1930 was [on] the order of 1. (2004) used TOPEX/Poseidon level on interannual to decadal time scales. focusing satellite altimeter data to estimate global empirical on thermal expansion of the oceans and continental orthogonal functions. they say that “satellite Woodhouse. 1989. at least. C. Canadian Water Resources masses over the globe .” In addition. in his words. with the advent of the historical trends in sea level to see if there is any TOPEX/Poseidon mission.” 10. and Burn. 1998. primarily driven by Journal 23: 45-60. In doing so.S. up to the “stop” global warming.0-1.A.” Most would cause sea levels to rise. (2003) studied climate-related scenarios. Colorado.3 mm/year. From early 1993 to change over the period 1950-2000. Vice stopped (Pirazzoli et al. S. they cite the work of Nerem and Mitchum (2001) as indicating that “about 20 years of satellite Woodhouse.” global warming is featured prominently in but that “after 1930-40. Their resultant the end of the twentieth century. Mörner notes that “the indication of an increase in the mean rate-of-rise of record can be divided into three parts: (1) 1993-1996 the global ocean surface in response to the supposedly with a clear trend of stability.” President Al Gore. which they combined with water mass balance. analyses of “best estimate” of the rate of globally averaged seaTOPEX-Poseidon altimetry data and the global ocean level rise over the last half of the twentieth century temperature data of Levitus et al. 2006. C. 1973. D. Climatic Change 78: 293-315. In this section we examine mid-60s. C. J. as they alternatively note. however. Multi-century tree5000-6000 years before present. therefore. any acceleration in sea-level rise. Water Resources Research 42: these data alone. Mörner states “there is a total absence of any recent ‘acceleration in sea-level rise’ as often claimed by IPCC and related groups.1 mm/year. Mörner (2004) provided a more expansive setting for his analysis of the subject by noting that “prior to Woodhouse. (2) 1997-1998 with a unprecedented warming of the planet over the course high-amplitude rise and fall recording the ENSO of the twentieth century.

” In the mean. they found that warming-induced steric effects “are enough to explain much of the observed rate of increase in the rate of sea-level rise in the last decade of the twentieth century without need to invoke acceleration of melting of continental ice.” They determined that “the effect on global sea-level rise of changing salinity is small except in subpolar regions. and North Atlantic Oscillation). Cazenave and Nerem report that “these tools seem to have raised more questions than they have answered.!and!Sea!Level! ! “decadal variability in sea level is observed. Cazenave and Nerem (2004) seemed to dismiss the caveats expressed in Cazenave et al. Carton et al.” Consequently. with positive values (in the range 1 to 1.2 mm/year. and sea level spanning the period 1968-2001. they note that “for the past 50 years.2 reanalysis of global temperature. they then admit “the altimetric rate could still be influenced by decadal variations of sea level unrelated to long-term climate change. 2004. and in spite of the many new instruments and techniques that are being used to search for a global warming signal in global sea-level data. 1993. Noting that sea-level trends derived from TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry over 1993-2003 are “mainly caused by thermal expansion” and are thus “very likely a non-permanent feature. (2003). so one cannot be sure what would be implied if earlier data were available or what will be implied as more data are acquired.” noting further that “this apparent increase could have resulted from enhanced melting of continental ice or from decadal changes in thermosteric and halosteric effects. citing the work of Woodworth (1990) and Douglas (1992).5 mm/year for the decade centered on 1980). there were both higher and lower values.” Lombard et al. Maul and Martin. Their results confirmed the earlier findings of “no significant increase in the rate of sealevel rise during this 51-year period.” However.” They also noted that satellite altimetry had revealed a “non-uniform geographical distribution of sea-level change. 1992.5-2 mm/year. but only because the record began at the bottom of a trough and ended at the top of a peak. conclude that “we simply cannot extrapolate sea level into the past or the future using satellite altimetry alone. there was a net rise in sea level due to the thermal expansion of sea water. well above the centennial estimate of 1. but to date there is no detectable secular increase in the rate of sea-level rise over the period 1950-2000. as any long-term increase in global sea level that may have been caused by the temperature increase is dwarfed by decadal-scale variability. and thus a longer time series is needed to rule this out.” However. (2005) introduced their study of the subject by noting that “recent altimeter observations indicate an increase in the rate of sea-level rise during the past decade to 3.” Noting that global climate models “show an increase in the rate of global average sea-level rise during the twentieth century. sealevel trends caused by change in ocean heat storage also show high regional variability. with some regions exhibiting trends about 10 times the global mean. such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Church et al.” They explored these opposing options “using the new eddypermitting Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 1.” which fact “has led to questions about whether the rate of 20thcentury sea-level rise. +2.” 185 .” and that “this rate is significantly larger than the historical rate of sea-level change measured by tide gauges during the past decades (in the range of 1-2 mm/year). Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This work revealed that thermosteric sealevel variations are dominated by decadal oscillations of the planet’s chief ocean-atmosphere climatic perturbations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation. however. (2005) investigated the thermosteric or temperature-induced sea-level change of the past 50 years using the global ocean temperature data of Levitus et al. 1991. thermosteric trends computed over 10-year windows “show large fluctuations in time. as they describe it. salinity. (2005) compared estimates of coastal and global averaged sea level for 1950 to 2000.” Even the 50 years of global ocean temperature data we possess are insufficient to tell us much about the degree of global warming that may have occurred over the past half-century.” What is more.” In addition.” Lombard et al.!Sea!Ice. (2003) when they claimed that “the geocentric rate of global mean sea-level rise over the last decade (1993-2003) is now known to be very accurate.4 mm/year.8 ± 0. White et al.5 mm/year for the decade centered on 1970) and negative values (-1 to -1.Observations:!Glaciers. based on poorly distributed historical tide gauges.. (2000) and Ishii et al.” but that several prior studies (Douglas. investigated. In between these two points. In terms of the global mean. as determined from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason altimeter measurements. Holgate and Woodworth.!Precipitation. and over the full half-century period Lombard et al. is really representative of the true global mean. they reported that no increase in the rate of sealevel rise has been detected for the entire twentieth century. 2004) had shown the measured rate of global sealevel rise to have been rather stable over the past hundred years.

Holgate and Woodworth (2004) derived a mean global sea-level history from 177 coastal tide gauge records that spanned the period 1955-1998. In a previous paper. and mean gsl rate-of-rise (bottom). adapted from Jevrejeva et al. Newlyn. Holgate found their mean rates-ofpercent confidence interval.4 ± 1. we report the findings of the most recent study of Holgate (2007). question in the negative.1. In an attempt to extend that record back in time another half-century.to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations concentration experienced a dramatic increase in its to derive nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large rate-of-rise just after 1950 (shifting from a 1900-1950 ocean regions. and in harmony with the findings of The observations described above make us Levitus et al. rise were indeed similar over the second half of the with shaded standard error interval. that “a few high quality records from around the world can be used to examine large The figure clearly shows no acceleration of seaspatial-scale decadal variability as well as many level rise since the end of the Little Ice Age. twentieth century. and Auckland) to see if their combined mean progression over the 1955-1998 period was similar enough to the concomitant mean sea-level history of the 177 stations to employ the mean nine-station record as a reasonable representation of mean global sea-level history for the much longer period stretching from 1904 to 2003.0 mm/year for the period 186 . say “global sea-level rise is irregular and varies As a result of this finding. this observation thus implied. Balboa. sea-level rate-of-rise did not trend upwards after 1950. nor has it subsequently exceeded its 1950 rateof-rise. with shaded 95 the two datasets. Honolulu.1. Key West.” With respect to what the four researchers induced rate-of-rise of global sea level over the past describe as “the discussion on whether sea-level rise decade is likely “a non-permanent feature” of the is accelerating. (2006).5.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! from 1993 to 2000 matches the 2.5. which they combined to produce the mean rate-of-rise of 0. the mean global rate) curves depicted in Figure 4. although the atmospheric CO2 based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis and removed 2. Trieste.” their results pretty much answer the global ocean’s transient thermal behavior. In comparing the sea-level histories derived from Figure 4. The observed increase in global sea-level rise of the past effects of the warming that led to the demise of the decade. Mean global sea level (top).1. Holgate chose nine much longer highquality records from around the world (New York.2 as a reasonable best representation of the In addition.1.33 ppm/year to a 1950-2000 mean global sea level (gsl) and gsl rate-of-rise (gsl mean rate-of-rise of 1. warming of the late twentieth century—are readily who analyzed information contained in the Permanent apparent to the right of the vertical red line in the Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method figure. trend estimate of 2.. they report that their “global sea-level 1904-2003 mean global sea-level history of the world.1. San Diego.” et al.” but “it is apparent that rates in the the nine-station-derived wavering line in Figure 1920-1945 period are likely to be as large as today’s.17 ppm/year). (2005) and Volkov and van Aken wonder why late twentieth century global warming— (2005). the high thermostericdata.6 ± 0. found no need to invoke the if it were as extreme as the IPCC claims it has been— melting of land-based glacial ice to explain the cannot be detected in global sea-level data. Holgate constructed greatly over time. Consequently. In concluding our examination of the peerreviewed sea-level science. Likewise. Carton et al. Holgate’s words.5. Little Ice Age—which the IPCC contends should Even more revealing was the globally distributed have been considerably less dramatic than the sea-level time series study of Jevrejeva et al.” 4. Jevrejeva gauges from each region are able to [do].7 mm/year And as determined by Lombard et al. Cascais. as described in sea-level rise found from TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter the preceding paragraph. in (2006).

Holgate. Space Science Reviews 108: 131144.35 mm/year 1904-1953). P. 2004.A. Lombard.J.. J.J.1029/2005GL023606/. Giese.5. H. Cumulative increase in mean global sea level (1904-2003) derived from nine high-quality tide gauge records from around the world.1029/2006GL028492..699-12.A. Additional information on this topic. Present-day sea level change: observations and causes. S. and Grodsky. Church.. 2006. R. Journal of Geophysical Research 97: 12. Warming of the world ocean. Adapted from Holgate (2007). S..I. A. M.C. R. Antonov. and has probably fallen. Dominh.2. M. T. Global sea level rise.C. including reviews on sea level not discussed here.706. A. Garcia. Levitus. A. Boyer. Sea level rise and the warming of the oceans in the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) ocean reanalysis.. K. Lambeck. Kimoto. Ishii.C. Levitus. 2003. and Locarnini.. and Woodworth. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century. which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising. 1991.J.P. ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years.I. Cazenave.. Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period. Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records.03 ± 0. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. Geophysical Research Letters 32: 10. in comparison with the latter part (1. and Kachi. J.A.34 mm/year 1954-2003). Journal of Geophysical Research 110: 10.1029/2004GL019626. Cazenave. P. B. Douglas. 1956-2003.. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10. Le Traon.S. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.1029/2004JC002817. S. and Stephens. T. Cabanes. B... and Ishii. Coleman. in the mean.X. J. J.E. S. 2004.. 1992. A.C... 187 Whichever way one looks at the findings of Holgate—either as two successive linear trends (representative of the mean rates-of-rise of the first and last halves of the twentieth century) or as one longer continuous curve (such as we have drawn)— the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea-level rise has not accelerated over the recent past. Grinsted. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10. P.J. 2007. Monthly Weather Review 131: 51-73. Boyer.-Y. can be found at http://www. Holgate. and Woodworth. Reviews of Geophysics 42: 10. Journal of Climate 17: 2609-2625. Journal of Geophysical Research 96: 6981-6992.php under the heading Sea Level. R. References Carton.A. and Mitrovica. Historical ocean subsurface temperature analysis with error estimates. J..” Another way of thinking about the century-long sea-level history portrayed in Figure 4. Global and Planetary Change 47: 1-16. 2005. B.Observations:!Glaciers.org/subject/s/subject_s. and Le Provost. Cazenave. 2005. 2003.45 ± 0. Moore. Antonov.L.co2science. he calculated that the mean rate of global sea-level rise was “larger in the early part of the last century (2. Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s.!Precipitation.1. Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s. S. EOF analysis of upper ocean heat content. Science 287: 22252229. S. K. 2004. . Jevrejeva. M.2 is suggested by the curve we have fit to it. Global sea level acceleration. Holgate.5. Douglas.!and!Sea!Level! ! Based on that history. 2000. J. S. N. and Holgate. A. Gennero. C.1. C.L.. 2004.S. M. White. S. Present-day sea level change: observations and causes.1029/2005JC003229.1029/2003RG000139.. and Nerem.P.!Sea!Ice. Contribution of thermal expansion to present-day sea-level change revisited. M.. Figure 4.1029/2004GL019626. 2005. C.

2001. Pirazzoli.2. with 349. warming would create but little net change in mean Palaeoecology 9: 153-181.S. even for sheet including ice shelves and embedded ice rises.. P. present. Under a doubled atmospheric Earth Sciences: A Handbook of Techniques and CO2 scenario. 1846-1992: America’s longest instrument Antarctic Ice Sheet to recent sea-level change. Palaeoclimatology. Sea level change. Geophysical Research Letters density functions be derived for predicted values such 32: 10. 2005.-A.. of Climatology 10: 129-143. Sea level changes along Western sea-level rise on the order of 0. Geophysical Research Letters 32: 10. Two years later. London-Hong Kong.” In stepping forward records of European mean sea level. The following year. pp. D. 1973. D. N.M. the worst of the IPCC warming projections. 2000. San Diego. H.L. Wild and Ohmura (2000) Mörner. Palaeogeography.77 millimeters Europe. per year. N. indicative of decreases in sea level. the two models were in close Applications. van der Veen concludes that the confidence net icefall on Antarctica may well have increased level that can be placed in current ice sheet mass somewhat over that prior decade and a half. and Woodworth.” which that may occur over the rest of this century. Climate-related formulating policies. 1990. “are around 18% and 7% higher than the level due to the likely rise in the air’s CO2 content estimates widely adopted at present [1999]. Nerem. and Cazenave. the veracity of their models to accurately predict future evolution of the earth’s natural system or Woodworth.-A. 2004. Grant. Academic Press. Estimating future sea level changes from past records. as sea-level rise..70 millimeters per year. A. D. P.A.” Van der Veen calculated.” Paraphrasing an earlier Nevertheless.30 to 0. P. Florida. it is imperative that probability North Pacific in 1993-2003. Antarctica Contribution to Sea Level surface accumulation and ablation under changing climate conditions has not been convincingly Vaughn et al. general circulation models developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. and van Aken. both of them predicting increases in ice sheet growth. Vaughn et al. say “we are still unable to 188 .L.” record? Geophysical Research Letters 20: 1955-1958. Coastal geophysical modelers to demonstrate convincingly and global averaged sea level rise for 1950 to 2000.” These values.5. 2nd ed. he says today’s best models numbers.) Satellite Altimetry and improved ECHAM4. some of which could be change of sea level in the extratropical North Atlantic and unpopular or costly. As a were derived about 15 years earlier.T. pp. the problem again. Church. (1999) used more than 1.1029/2004GL021391. fall on the order of 0. there -1 -2 -1 2288 Gton yr (166 kg m yr ). G. he was forced to conclude that “the validity of the parameterizations used by [various] glaciological modeling studies to estimate changes in 4.A.M. and Martin. N.J.A.-A. J. 2005.L. 1993. L. 329agreement in their mass balance projections. for low. however. 33-37. Hence. Their projected meltwater contributions from Greenland results indicated that the “total net surface mass and Antarctica that encompass global sea-level balance for the conterminous grounded ice sheet is lowering as well as rise by 2100 A. Global and Planetary Change 40: 49studied the mass balance of Antarctica using two 54. (Eds. International Journal to perform this task with respect to sea-level change. Greenland’s contribution would be a Morner. Germany: the older ECHAM3 and the new and In: Fu. G. balance models “is quite low. J. Sea level rise at Key determine even the sign of the contribution of the West. A search for accelerations in particular components thereof. CA. noting that “for purposes of Volkov. and high warming scenarios. while Antarctica’s contribution would be a IPC Publ.M. and unpublished in situ measurements of the surface that uncertainties in model parameters are sufficiently mass balance of Antarctica to produce an assessment great to yield a 95 percent confidence range of of yearly ice accumulation over the continent.20 to 0. 1989. van der Veen (2002) addressed Quaternary International 2: 63-71. They suggest that result. Reeh (1999) found a Morner. and Gregory. Eustatic changes during the last 300 broad consensus for the conclusion that a 1°C years. and Mitchum. Trends of relative sea-level changes: past. In another review of the subject that was published about the same time.1029/2005GL023097.800 published demonstrated. future. global sea level. because of uncertainties in the various assessment of the subject.R. R.” further stating that with “greater societal relevance comes increased responsibility for White. for example.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Maul. N. in could well be little to no change in mean global sea their words.D. 1811 Gton yr-1 (149 kg m-2 yr-1) and for the entire ice middle. In: Integrated Coastal Zone Management.

2001). Polar ice sheets and global sea level: how well can we predict the future? Global and Planetary Change 32: 165-194.” which could obviously occur again.. they assert “we do not have good estimates of the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. West Antarctic Ice Sheet 4. is that the continental runoff which is “allowed. van der Veen.” Their analysis produced “a eustatic rise of only 0.3. N. sea ice melting. Giovinetto. 1999. 1998). however. 4. from the timing of late Pleistocene-Holocene deglaciation in the Ross Sea (Bindschadler. and from predicted activity of ice-stream drainage in response to presumed future global warming (Oppenheimer. co2science. which testify of the repeated collapse of the eastern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and the concomitant massive discharge of icebergs. the researchers reasoned. in an attempt to see if there are Antarctic analogues of the Heinrich layers of the North Atlantic Ocean. Collapse and Disintegration The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is often described as the world’s most unstable large ice sheet. Oppenheimer. which could make a much larger positive or negative contribution.!Sea!Ice. causing the sea-level to rise at a rate of 1 to 10 mm/year (Bindschadler. J. as well as the other studies we have reviewed.. 2002. Annals of Glaciology 30: 197-203.L. widespread catastrophic collapse of basins within the Antarctic Ice Sheet.” Cofaigh et al.!and!Sea!Level! ! “currently reside on the lower rungs of the ladder of excellence” and “considerable improvements are needed before accurate assessments of future sealevel change can be made. C. is that there is considerable uncertainty associated with a number of basic parameters related to the water balance of the world’s oceans and the meltwater contribution of Antarctica. P. 1999).!Precipitation. can be found at http://www. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. A. As Hillenbrand et al. Perhaps the most interesting finding of their analysis. “it was speculated.php.3. 2004. Bamber.” Wadhams and Munk (2004) attempted “an independent estimate of eustatic sea-level rise based on the measured freshening of the global ocean. 1998). W. they concluded that “the ice sheet over the Antarctic Peninsula did not undergo widespread catastrophic collapse along its western margin during the late Quaternary. Wild.. If such IRD layers exist around Antarctica. and Cooper. Reassessment of net surface mass balance in Antarctica.P. (2002) report.6 mm/year. and with attention to the contribution from melting of sea ice (which affects freshening but not sea level).1029/2004GL020039. and Munk. D.” The bottom line of Wadhams and Munk’s analysis.co2science.1 mm/year.” In this regard. Journal of Climate 12: 933946..php and http://www. M. that the WAIS may disappear in the future.. they would be evidence of “periodic. (2001) analyzed five sediment cores from the continental rise west of the Antarctic Peninsula and six from the Weddell and Scotia Seas for their ice rafted debris (IRD) content. Shepherd et al. Vaughn. Additional information on this topic.5 mm/year is added to the eustatic component.5. Change in mass balance of polar ice sheets and sea level from high-resolution GCM simulations of greenhouse warming. Until these uncertainties are satisfactorily resolved. there’s a very good chance there will be none before the current interglacial ends.J.” If there was no dramatic break-up of the WAIS over the last few glacial cycles.org/ subject/a/antarcticasealvl. 1998. 1999.” is the final result. somewhat less than IPCC estimates. Russell.” and when a steric contribution of 0. “is considerably lower than current estimates of sub-polar glacial retreat. 1998.” after subtracting the effect of sea ice melt. and Ohmura. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10. 1998. M. suggesting a negative contribution from polar ice sheets (Antarctica plus Greenland) or from other non-glacial processes. 2000.org/subject/s/sealevelantarctica. sea level rising.” and they say this evidence “argues against pervasive. Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: Can modern observation methods reduce the uncertainty? Geografiska Annaler 81A: 735-742. rapid ice-sheet collapse around the Weddell embayment over the last few glacial cycles. Wadhams.1. A. Ocean freshening. “a total of 1. However. Conway et al. we cannot be confident that we know what is happening at the bottom of the world in terms of phenomena related to sea level. from observed fast grounding-line retreat and thinning of a glacier in Pine Island Bay (Rignot. References Reeh. especially since the data of 189 . after carefully studying their data. J.R.5.G.Observations:!Glaciers.

or 5°C. a 2°C warming of the globe would likely have little to no impact on the stability of the Conway. D. including climatic cycles.K. which suggests we are probably long sensitive to a WAIS collapse changed markedly overdue for the next ice age to begin. The Antarctic Ice Sheet during the which we presently live. instability of the WAIS during the Pleistocene Additional information on this topic. global mean) than today.M. K.000doing so. The average Antarctic peak temperature of all Waddington. J. 2000.L. Futterer. 1990. Hall. 2002.” In fact. Grobe.. S. Past and future grounding-line four of the world’s prior interglacials was at least 2°C retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sea-level changes at the LGM from interglacial (when the most recent peak Antarctic ice-dynamic reconstructions of the Greenland and Antarctic temperature was reached). H. we know from the Vostok ice core sediments recovered in the Amundsen Sea. 2001. 1999.. O’Neill and Oppenheimer (2002) say the ice sheet “may have disintegrated in Bindschadler. in the words of the scientists Cuffey.. history of glaciomarine deposits contained in Finally.H. yet the WAIS still did not last glacial-interglacial cycle: a three-dimensional disintegrate then..000 years. Huybrechts (2002). Frederichs. 1998.. Nature 404: 591-594.” citing the work of Huybrechts (1990).M.” and they thus claim that setting “a limit of 2°C above the 1990 global average Cofaigh. Science 286: 280greater than the Antarctic peak temperature of the 283. and this fact raises the 3°C temperature of each of the previous four intergalcials were warmer elevation of the last interglacial relative to the global than the peak temperature of the current interglacial temperature of 1990 to something on the order of 4° by an average of more than 2°C. In another paper that addresses the subject of References possible WAIS collapse. Annals of Glaciology 14: 115-119. temperature”—above which the mean temperature of Late Quaternary iceberg rafting along the Antarctic the globe should not be allowed to rise—“is Peninsula continental rise in the Weddell and Scotia Seas. Gades. the evidence contained in the core from the Greenland ice sheet.” They the current global mean would be needed to initiate say their results “suggest relative stability rather than the process.” and they note that this conclusion is reviews of newer publications as they become “consistent with only a minor reduction of the WAIS available. 1999).J. and Marshall. Science 282: 428-429.. C.O. they found that all proxies regarded as year record. P. recent prior interglacial was fully 3°C warmer than the peak Antarctic temperature of the interglacial in Huybrechts.. for which. Quaternary Research 56: 308-321. Denton. A. current interglacial. (2002) studied the nature and even a partial WAIS disintegration. No evidence for a Pleistocene collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from continental margin In addition. Furthermore.D. B. (1999) indicate that the peak temperatures measured. the Vostok ice core data continental margin in the Amundsen Sea to “test indicate that the current interglacial has been by far hypotheses of past disintegration of the WAIS. which is the year from which O’Neill Reviews 21: 203-231. E. Substantial who developed the pertinent temperature record (Petit contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial et al.8 not have the “5 to 50 centuries” that O’Neill and million years. C. but they “do not confirm a complete Oppenheimer suggest could be needed to bring about disintegration of the WAIS during the Pleistocene” at the WAIS disintegration subsequent to the attainment a place where “dramatic environmental changes of whatever temperature in excess of 4° or 5°C above linked to such an event should be documented. R. we know that experiment.A. Cuffey and Marshall (2000) and subject/w/waiscollapse. “makes it unlikely that the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsed during the past 420. and in spite of the current interglacial’s sediment cores recovered from the West Antarctic current relative coolness. justified. can be found at http://www.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! and Oppenheimer’s critical 2°C warming increment is Petit et al. Geo-Marine record that the peak Antarctic temperature of the most Letters 22: 51-59.php. G. there was no evidence of Hillenbrand et al. C-D.” In the longest stable warm period of the entire 420.” pretty much Hillenbrand. and that we may during the global climatic cycles of the past 1. T. again. 2002. Dowdeswell. and the same conclusion that was drawn by Cofaigh et al. yet. 190 . P.co2science. Quaternary Science was in 1990. it was much warmer than it ice sheets during the glacial cycles. Future of the West Antarctic Ice the past during periods only modestly warmer (~2°C Sheet. H.J. throughout the long central portion of the current Huybrechts. and WAIS.org/ during the last interglacial period. and Pudsey.

M. and Corr.000 years from the Vostok ice core... as it raises sea-level by 60-120 cm 191 . M. In fact. followed by a more rapid disintegration over the following 50 to 200 years.” and there were no broad-based data to support that scenario. M. he acknowledged that “measurements are too sparse to enable the observed changes to be attributed to any such [human-induced] global warming. Chappellaz. he stated that this scenario “may be put aside for the moment.. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420. sea levels worldwide would increase by between 18 and 20 feet” (Gore 2006). Mansley. Bender. E. believe we are witnessing the CO2-induced “early stages of rapid ice sheet collapse. Lipenkov. G.I.. detract from this conclusion. as reported by Ackert (2003). Kotlyakov. Once again.” With respect to the state and behavior of the atmosphere and ocean above and around Antarctica.. C. Rignot. H. The data indicated that since that time.Y. Nature 393: 325-332. However. “a large negative mass balance for all of West Antarctica. an “order of magnitude faster than models have predicted. Dangerous climate impacts and the Kyoto Protocol.” Bindschadler (1998) reviewed what was known about the WAIS and analyzed its historical retreat in terms of its grounding line and ice front. Science 296: 1971-1972. M. M.000 years. Oppenheimer (1998) reviewed 122 studies that dealt with the stability of the WAIS and its effects on global sea level.. Inland thinning of Pine Island Glacier. This work revealed that from the time of the Last Glacial Maximum to the present.. Petit. Wingham. I. Barnola. Fast recession of a West Antarctic glacier. D. Science 281: 549-551. which flows into the Ross Ice Shelf.Observations:!Glaciers.” Other of his statements.. Dynamics The supposedly imminent demise of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is what Al Gore apparently had in mind when warned that if “half of Antarctica melted or broke up and slipped into the sea. at a rate that was. even the smallest of these sea-level ratesof-rise would require. studies of the dynamics of various components of the WAIS suggest this is highly unlikely.A.” However.J. A few scientists. Nature 399: 429-436. J. and Oppenheimer. he noted that “progress on understanding [the] WAIS over the past two decades has enabled us to lower the relative likelihood of [this] scenario. However.. Science 291: 862-864.000 to 7.R. Davis. West Antarctica. Raynaud. Such a retreat would indeed result in a sustained sea-level rise of 8 to 13 cm per century. and Stievenard. 2002. he admitted “the IPCC assessment is that no trend has yet emerged. N.” and that such changes “do not resolve the overriding question of the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Bindschadler reported that “the ice front now appears to be nearly stable. however. 1998.J.” A second scenario had the WAIS gradually disintegrating and contributing to a slow sea-level rise over two centuries. 1999. because no convincing model of it has been presented. however. L. J. which resulted in an expanding Ross Ice Shelf.D.!and!Sea!Level! ! O’Neill. Delaygue..” And in the case of sea-ice extent.5.. V.... One was that the WAIS will experience a sudden collapse that causes a 4-6 m sea-level rise within the coming century. according to Bindschadler. Basile. the ice stream’s width had increased by nearly 4 kilometers. Shepherd. Jouzel. E.. 1998. Oppenheimer..C. for example. they reported that the flow speed of the ice stream had decreased over this time period by about 50 percent.F. the WAIS takes 500-700 years to disappear. 4. M. J. Ritz. He noted.!Sea!Ice. M.2. concluding that “human-induced climate change may play a significant role in controlling the long-term stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and in determining its contribution to sea-level change in the near future.. J.!Precipitation. B.-M. Saltzman. Bindschadler and Vornberger (1998) utilized satellite imagery taken since 1963 to examine spatial and temporal changes of Ice Stream B. the retreat of the WAIS’s grounding line had been faster than that of its ice front. Antarctica. Lorius.” although its grounding line appeared to be retreating at a rate that suggested complete dissolution of the WAIS in another 4. in their words.. Legrand. and projected a small negative (about -1 cm) contribution for the twentyfirst century. noting that “such high rates of change in velocity greatly complicate the calculation of mass balance of the ice sheet.” Oppenheimer concluded his review with four scenarios of the future based upon various assumptions. Barkov.M. that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “estimated a zero Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise over the past century.” However.J.. with potential near-term impacts on the world’s coastlines.. Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” In another scenario. 2001. V.3. Delmotte. Pepin. A. C. J. D.

and the discharge of grounded end of the twentieth century it was retreating at about ice decreases. the researchers wrote that “the measurements of the grounding line of Pine Island thinning cannot be explained by short-term variability Glacier from 1992 to 1996. This work also indicated that at the sheet readjustments. (2001) used dictate the evolution of the dynamic ice system. lose mass at the present rate it will be entirely afloat Also in the journal Science. which glacier’s grounding line had been found to be sounds pretty dramatic. (1999) within 600 years. which were studied to in accumulation and must result from glacier determine whether or not this major ice stream in dynamics. appeared to act as lubricants for the overlying ice. respond to phenomena operating on time scales of The data indicated that the glacier’s grounding line hundreds to thousands of years.” Also writing in Nature. period. which could well happen even if ice the same rate. Shepherd et al. while the net contribution to eustatic sea level to be 6 mm. subsequent satellite images suggested that The researchers state that “if the trunk continues to the location of the ice front had remained stable. as a result of internal ice meters per year.2 ± 0. this observation had retreated inland at a rate of 1. by up to 1. suggested that this retreat may have been the result of additionally say they could “detect no change in the a slight increase in ocean water temperature. In altimetry and synthetic aperture radar interferometry.. Rignot a primary cause of the thinning. Rignot (1998) reported on satellite radar Of this phenomenon. these data suggested which they used to develop a velocity map that a close correlation between the margins of various ice revealed a system of tributaries that channel ice from streams and the underlying sedimentary basins. what effect. the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have the potential to One year later. which the catchment area into the fast-flowing glacier.” although their work did not indicate Island Glacier drainage basin between 1992 and 1999.000 years ago.” as he puts it. Conway et al. they were ice-stream margins and their onsets were controlled able to calculate. he notes that “the Antarctic the WAIS will occur in about 7. were to continue unabated? retreating. within an uncertainty of 30 percent. be answered at present.” i. conjunction with various models. And in commenting grounding-line retreat of the WAIS is part of an upon the suite of scenarios just described. by combining the velocity data with information on The seven scientists suggested that the positions of ice thickness and snow accumulation rates. that the mass balance of the catchment region was not They concluded that “geological structures beneath significantly different from zero. we could expect of the WAIS since its maximum glacial extent some 192 . although the But what if the rate of glacier thinning.000 years ago.” and since glacier dynamics typically remote West Antarctica was advancing or retreating.” conducting some of their own. Shepherd et al. satellite altimetry and interferometry to determine the modulating the influence of changes in the global rate of change of the ice thickness of the entire Pine climate system. Then. a modest rise in near-surface air This work revealed that the grounded glacier thinned temperature might have on this phenomenon. Because rate of ice thinning across the glacier over a 7-year the study had utilized only four years of data. In such a situation. Last is what whereupon it began to retreat at a rate of about 120 occurs if ice streams slow. In doing so. (1998) used Stenoien and Bentley (2000) mapped the aerogeophysical data to investigate processes that catchment region of Pine Island Glacier using radar govern fast-moving ice streams on the WAIS. maximum extent until about 10.e. which suggests that if it continues to shelves thin and major fast-moving glaciers do not behave as it has in the past. in the words of the researcher. Bell et al. if any.000 years. “cannot in this particular situation. complete deglaciation of slow.” level rise. Oppenheimer assesses the relative the ice sheet’s grounding line remained near its likelihood of this scenario to be the highest of all. by features of the underlying sedimentary basins. “but with low confidence. ongoing recession that has been underway since the Oppenheimer emphatically states that “it is not early to mid-Holocene. questions concerning the long-term stability phenomenon of considerable inertia must be at work of the WAIS.” which also suggests that a long-term however. The contribution to sea-level rise turns increasingly researchers concluded that the modern-day negative. sea level falls. and that “it is not a possible to place high confidence in any specific consequence of anthropogenic warming or recent seaprediction about the future of WAIS.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! 20. dealing with the retreat which means that over each century.6 meters per year between 1992 and 1999. they determined that per century. they “estimate examined previously reported research.” In addition.” And if that happens.3 kilometers would argue against twentieth century warming being per year over the four-year period of the study.

Finn. in their words. Blankenship.000-plus years. in their words. Bell.” as “a currently active ice stream (Whillans) has slowed by about 20% over recent decades. the disappearance of the ice shelves was not unique.co2science. convincingly demonstrates that the current thinning and retreat of the WAIS are merely manifestations of a slow but steady deglaciation that has been going on ever since the beginning-of-the-end of the last great ice age. Morse.” noting that the ice sheet in Marie Byrd Land “shows the same pattern of steady Holocene deglaciation as the marine ice sheet in the Ross Sea.” while Ackert (2003) makes the point even plainer when he says “recent ice sheet dynamics appear to be dominated by the ongoing response to deglacial forcing thousands of years ago.P. Publishing in the same year were Pudsey and Evans (2001).. T.” Additional information on this topic.” and that “several lines of evidence suggest that the maximum ice sheet stood considerably higher than this. was deglaciated within the past 11.” Although they concluded that the ice shelves are sensitive indicators of regional climate change. (2003)—working on western Marie Byrd Land—report how they determined cosmogenic 10 Be exposure dates of glacially transported cobbles in elevation transects on seven peaks of the Ford Ranges between the ice sheet’s present grounding line and the Clark Mountains some 80 km inland. Raymond says that “the total mass of today’s ice sheets is changing only slowly. Influence of subglacial geology on the onset of a West 193 . D.000 years.” such as might possibly occur for the WAIS if the planet’s temperature continues its post-Little Ice Age rebound.” (2) of the three major WAIS drainages. it had happened before without our help. and Hodge. and even with climate warming increases in snowfall should compensate for additional melting. can be found at http://www. Stone et al. In fact. “over the last few centuries.” Stone et al. Stone et al.Observations:!Glaciers. S. the ice streams that drain northward to the Amundsen Sea have accelerated. say “the pattern of recent change is consistent with the idea that thinning of the WAIS over the past few thousand years is continuing. Brozena..” where ice “has thinned and retreated since 7000 years ago. An ice sheet remembers.. the breakup of the Prince Gustav Channel ice shelves was likely nothing more than the culmination of the Antarctic Peninsula’s natural recovery from the cold conditions of Little Ice Age.M.400 years ago. Science 299: 57-58.D..!and!Sea!Level! global sea level to rise by about one millimeter. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. 1998.. J. Scambos.” The researchers also say their results “add to the evidence that West Antarctic deglaciation continued long after the disappearance of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and may still be under way. which until 1995 was covered by floating ice shelves.” In a summary statement that takes account of these observations. R. C. Based on these ages and the elevations at which the cobbles ! were found. and thinned “over substantial distances back into the ice sheet.” while the “overall mass balance has changed from loss to gain.. D. His primary conclusions relative to the WAIS were that (1) “substantial melting on the upper surface of WAIS would occur only with considerable atmospheric warming.E. 2003.A. Their efforts indicated that the ice shelves had also retreated in mid-Holocene time. up to 700 m above the present ice surface.M.” but that “the eastward drainage toward the Weddell Sea is close to mass balance.9 ka allowed the ice shelf to reform. additionally report that the consistency of the exposure age versus elevation trends of their data “indicates steady deglaciation since the first of these peaks emerged from the ice sheet some time before 10.A. widened. Raymond (2002) presented a brief appraisal of the status of the world’s major ice sheets. This history showed. rather than by a recent anthropogenic warming or sea-level rise.” And (3) of the westward drainage into the Ross Ice Shelf. R. that “the exposed rock in the Ford Ranges. References Ackert Jr.org/ subject/w/waisdynamics.!Sea!Ice. and it could well have happened again on its own.!Precipitation. but that. margins of active ice streams migrated inward and outward. who studied ice-rafted debris obtained from four cores in Prince Gustav Channel.” adding that “there is strong evidence that the limit of grounded ice in both regions—and in Pine Island Bay—is still receding.php. they reconstructed a history of ice-sheet thinning over the past 10. they were careful to state that “we should not view the recent decay as an unequivocal indicator of anthropogenic climate change.” The work of Stone et al. “colder conditions after about 1. about the thickness of a paper clip.” and that the mass balance of the region “has been negative throughout the Holocene.L.” Indeed.

C. Hall. Wingham.J. E. C. First survey of Antarctic raising global sea level. the interior of the Stenoien. and Evans. Cowdery. 1998. understand the behavior of both the East and West Nature 394: 58-62. Sugden.D. and Siddoway. Rodale. They concluded “that the current interglacial setting is characterized by a more extensive ice margin and Conway.W. 1998. (1998).2. Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do because of the great inertial forces at work over much About It. In doing so. Caffee. entire Antarctic Ice Sheet.” satellite photography. and Corr.O. 2003. M.. year period June 1995 to April 2000. sub-ice shelf sediments reveals mid-Holocene ice shelf Also studying the combined ice sheets of East and retreat. C. which is 4.F. J. and Bentley. Future of the West Antarctic Ice Weddell Sea continental shelf took place prior to the Sheet. Science 282: 428-429.J.J. last glacial maximum. noting that this conclusion is in harmony with a body of relative sea-level and geodetic evidence Stone. 1998.. An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary what global air temperature may currently be doing.761-21. They Weddell Sea continental shelf and the western determined the east Antarctic ice sheet had a five-year Weddell Sea deep-sea floor in an attempt to better 194 .E.M. Denton. Inland thinning of Pine Island Glacier.R.. at most. Balco. Fast recession of a West Antarctic glacier. E. A.” As a result. 1998. Science 298: used satellite radar altimeter measurements from 1992 2147-2148. L. Gades. and larger ice shelves than existed during the last glacial Waddington. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: imbalance for the Antarctic interior is unlikely. West Antarctica. Emmaus. Their Antarctica.” This full set of 299: 99-102. West Antarctica were Wingham et al. their data led them to conclude that “significant deglaciation of the Bindschadler.” It is thus to be expected—independent of Gore. Holocene “supporting the notion that the grounded ice has been deglaciation of Marie Byrd Land.L.H.. A. and that the modern West and East retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. G. Antarctica: A study of the catchment using sink of sea-level mass this century. R.. Science in balance at the millennial scale. Changes in the border the Weddell Sea today “are more extensive West Antarctic Ice Sheet since 1963 from declassified than they were during the previous glacial minimum. we briefly review the Davis and Ferguson (2004) evaluated elevation findings of several researchers who have focused their changes of the entire Antarctic ice sheet over the fiveattention on the mass balance of the WAIS. to 1996 to estimate the rate of change of the thickness of nearly two-thirds of the grounded portion of the Rignot. 2001.” and that the ice masses that Bindschadler. Antarctic ice sheets. thereby slowly Pudsey. decades and centuries. Geology 29: 787-790.779. West continental ice sheet over the past century. C.J. longer time scales—that the modern East and West Oppenheimer. PA. Sass III. Mass Balance the type of change most likely to occur—if there is any change at all—in response to the ongoing rise in Is the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) growing or the air’s CO2 content.. H.3. 2006. S. M. and Vornberger. 2002. J. while using snowfall variability data obtained from ice cores to ultimately Shepherd. 2001.A. Mansley. M. Global warming and the stability Antarctic Ice Sheets may well continue to shrink and of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. G.D. D.D. interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements and Wingham et al. release more icebergs to the Southern Ocean over the coming years. B. who Raymond. Pine Island Antarctic Ice Sheet has been “only a modest source or Glacier.5. results showed that. Science 291: 862-864.F. J.. concluded that “a large century-scale radar altimetry. calculate the mass balance of the interior of the H. findings thus suggests that both portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be rather impervious to climate changes of the magnitude characteristic of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. Science 281: 549-550. A. Ice sheets on the move. 1999. Nature 393: 325-332.” 21. Science 286: 280283.. Antarctic ice sheets have not yet shrunk to their minimum. USA.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Antarctic ice stream from aerogeophysical observations. shrinking? In what follows.. 2000. based on more Anderson and Andrews (1999) analyzed grain than 123 million elevation change measurements size and foraminiferal contents of radiometrically made by the European Space Agency’s European dated sediment cores collected from the eastern Remote Sensing 2 satellite radar altimeter. Past and future grounding-line minimum..G. P. D. R.A. Science 279: 689-692. C.

” (14) We do not know on what timescale future learning might affect the answers to these questions. we post them in the form of statements that address what we do not know about the various sub-topics mentioned. (2) We do not know if dynamical responses are likely to continue for centuries and propagate further inland or if it is more likely that they will be damped over time. (7) We do not know the prospects for expanding measurements and improving models of ice sheets nor the timescales involved. the west Antarctic ice sheet had a five-year trend of -3. (13) We do not know if any of the various temperatures proposed in the literature as demarking danger of disintegration for one or the other ice sheet are useful in contributing to a better understanding of “dangerous anthropogenic interference.” After a cursory review of the science related to these two key questions. In addition. according to Davis and Ferguson.” and that recent observations “indicate strong basal melting.6 cm/year. (6) We do not know the reliability of Antarctic and Southern Ocean temperatures (and polar amplification) that are projected by current GCMs. However.!Precipitation. instead of listing them in their original question form. (8) We do not know if current uncertainties in future ice sheet behavior can be expressed quantitatively.!and!Sea!Level! trend of 1. (10) We do not know. the majority of which increase. (5) We do not know what might be useful paleoclimate analogs for sea level and ice sheet behavior in a warmer world.0 ± 0. (1) We do not know if the apparent response of glaciers and ice streams to surface melting and melting at their termini (e. which is obviously ! what prompts the questions in the first place and validates the content of the statements. and the entire Antarctic continent (north of 81. a state of affairs reflecting the weakness of current models and uncertainty in paleoclimatic reconstructions. (11) We do not know if the concept of a threshold temperature is useful. In discussing their findings. (12) We do not know if either ice sheet seems more vulnerable and thus may provide a more immediate measure of climate “danger” and a more pressing target for research.6 ± 1. (4) We do not know if ice sheets made a significant net contribution to sea-level rise over the past several decades. the ice volume of the entire continent grew ever larger over the last five years of the twentieth century. (9) We do not know what would be useful early warning signs of impending ice sheet disintegration nor when these might be detectable.” which we list below.Observations:!Glaciers. as occurred for the smaller Larsen ice shelf.” with respect to the WAIS and Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). and the overall mass balance of the west Antarctic ice sheet may be related to increased basal melting caused by ocean temperature increases. is occurring at the grounding lines of these outlet glaciers.0 cm/year. they noted that “the key questions with respect to both WAIS and GIS are: What processes limit ice velocity.g. DeVicq. caused by ocean temperature increases. driven by the significantly positive trend of the much larger east Antarctic ice sheet. Davis and Ferguson noted that the strongly negative trends of the coastal glacier outlets “suggest that the basin results are due to dynamic changes in glacier flow. if our present understanding of the vulnerability of either the WAIS or GIS is potentially useful in defining “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with earth’s climate system.” They concluded “there is good evidence that the strongly negative trends at these outlet glaciers.. (3) We do not know if surface melting could cause rapid collapse of the Ross or Filchner-Ronne ice shelves. and how much can warming affect those processes?” In answer to these questions.e.4 cm/year. and Land glaciers of West Antarctica exhibited five-year trends ranging from -26 to—135 cm/year. and melting and ice discharge to the ocean through ice streams on the other. in an “editorial essay” (i. nor do we know why they differ so widely among models. ice shelves) could occur more generally over the ice sheets. One year later. consequently. about the fate of either ice sheet. Oppenheimer and Alley say their review “leads to a multitude of questions with respect to the basic science of the ice sheets. After a brief overview of the topic. was due to increased snowfall. 195 . not a peer-reviewed submission) published in the journal Climatic Change. the mass balance of the corresponding drainage basins. Oppenheimer and Alley (2005) discussed “the degree to which warming can affect the rate of ice loss by altering the mass balance between precipitation rates on the one hand..6°S) had a five-year trend of 0. they said that “no consensus has emerged about these issues nor. given current uncertainties.!Sea!Ice. Thwaites. the Pine Island. nor how these differences might be resolved.” Nevertheless.4 ± 0.

” “will not be closed unless governments provide With respect to post-glacial rebound..Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! secular component of those errors by finding monthly Oppenheimer and Alley describe this list of differences between meteorological fields from deficiencies in our knowledge of things related to the ECMWF and from the National Centers for WAIS as “gaping holes in our understanding” that Environmental Prediction. Velicogna and Wahr (2006) used significant ice mass trend does not appear until the measurements of time-variable gravity from the PGR contribution is removed. van de Berg et al. Much more likely to be ice sheet for the 34 months between April 2002 and representative of the truth with respect to the WAIS’s August 2005. The two researchers concluded that “the mass balance are the findings of Zwally et al. van den Broeke et al. Karlof et al. (1999. more than a century.” employed in this process came from the studies of The two researchers note that the GRACE mass Vaughan et al. they there is a risk of making ice-sheet disintegration “estimate the PGR contribution and its uncertainties nearly inevitable. Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) determined that “the SMB integrated over the meteorological fields.08 mm/year compared to the five-times-greater from the WAIS. (2002). and Turner et al. including stake arrays.” bomb horizons. equivalent to 0. unloading over the last several thousand years). (1999).” In fact.2 mm/year global sea level over a recent nine-year period to be of global sea-level rise. (2004). and from a regional atmospheric climate model for the ocean mass variability. van de Berg et al. (1999).” To deal with this problem.” where the many real-world observations Ocean (ECCO) general circulation model. as well as highly dependent perhaps as likely as not that a continuation of the upon various models. In a contemporaneous study.” all of which mass loss came only 0. or post-glacial rebound (PGR: the Observations were derived by a number of different viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to glacial measurement techniques. global water storage fields from the observations from Antarctica (N=1900)” in a Global Land Data Assimilation system. Velicogna and Wahr planet’s recovery from the relative cold of the Little acknowledge that “the PGR contribution is much Ice Age will lead to a buildup of polar ice..” Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Finally. but they acknowledge that grounded ice sheet (171 ± 3 mm per year) exceeds “there are errors in those fields. (2002). Velicogna and Wahr admit there is “geophysical (2006) compared results of model-simulated Antarctic contamination . according to them. Given the degree of All of these estimates and adjustments are deficiency in our knowledge of the matter. at a rate of 152 3 who determined Antarctica’s contribution to mean ± 80 km /year of ice.” so they “estimate the 196 . larger than the uncorrected GRACE trend. they and Wahr say “there are two important sources of claim that “if emissions of the greenhouse gases are error in PGR estimates: the ice history and Earth’s not reduced while uncertainties are being resolved. Velicogna adequate resources for research. Velicogna and Wahr utilized European Centre for As a result of this effort.” contradicts so dire a warning. ice sheet mass decreased significantly. Kaspari et over Antarctica is caused by a change in snow and ice al. The following year also saw the publication of their calculations indicate that the PGR contribution another paper that mixed “gaping holes in our exceeds that of the signal being sought by nearly a understanding” with warnings of dire-sounding WAIS factor of five. viscosity profile.4 mm/year calculated by Velicogna and Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance was 0 ± 56 Wahr. (2000). (2005). “is estimated lateral forcings—with “all available SMB using monthly. (2004). caused by signals outside surface mass balance (SMB)—which they derived Antarctica.4 ± 0. it is convoluted and complex. on the surface. and chemical analyses of ice cores To adjust for the confounding effect of the that covered time periods ranging from a few years to variable atmospheric mass above Antarctica. solutions “do not reveal whether a gravity variation Frezzotti et al.” while “the recalibration process that ultimately allowed them “to ocean contamination is estimated using a JPL version construct a best estimate of contemporary Antarctic of the Estimating Circulation and Climate of the SMB..” Nevertheless. Magand et al. (2004). since they calculated that the East value of 0.” including “continental hydrology .” The first of these time period 1980 to 2004 that used ERA-40 fields as confounding factors. Velicogna and Wahr’s study covered less satellites to determine mass variations of the Antarctic than a three-year period. Oerter et al. a change in atmospheric mass above 2000).. Smith et al.” Obviously. And they are forced to admit “a mass losses. their own analysis using two ice history models. km3/year. Antarctica.

nor in the size of ablation areas. (2006) “analyzed 1. with snowdrift-related processes calculated offline.” Ramillien et al. particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica. the two researchers state that “the East Antarctica ice sheet is nowadays more or less in balance.” In doing so. occurs because “mass gains from accumulating snow.” This net extraction of water from the global ocean.. as the latter researchers note in their closing paragraph. Wingham et al.” given that the “model and observations are completely independent. exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica.” In addition.” Van den Broeke et al. This is of the same order of magnitude as the 0. the precipitation increase will counterbalance this residual signal. (2006) derived new estimates of the mass balances of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets from GRACE data for the period July 2002 to March 2005: a loss of 107 ± 23 km3/year for West Antarctica and a gain of 67 ± 28 km3/year for East Antarctica.” Then. however.4 mm/yr over the short-time scale. they applied a set of empirical corrections (at 500-m intervals) that “largely eliminated” this final deviation from reality. horizontal snow drift transport. a sink of ocean mass sufficient to lower [their italics] global sea levels by 0. modeled (Ps-SU-ME) from RACMO2 strongly correlates with 1900 spatially weighted quality-controlled in situ SSMB observations. the GRACE approach is still laden with a host of potential errors. and as both they and Ramillien et al.!Sea!Ice. which results yielded a net ice loss for the entire continent of 40 km3/year (which translates to a mean sea-level rise of 0. while the West Antarctica ice sheet exhibits some changes likely to be related to climate change and is in negative balance. to deal with a remaining systematic elevation bias in the model results. sublimation from suspended (drifting/saltating) snow particles.08 mm/year Antarctic-induced mean sea-level rise calculated by Zwally et al.” Krinner et al.” which survey. However.” To calculate the ice sheet’s change in mass.11 mm/year). “covers 85% of the East Antarctic ice sheet and 51% of the West Antarctic ice sheet. they report that “the current response of the Antarctica ice sheet is dominated by the background trend due to the retreat of the grounding line.Observations:!Glaciers.” which they describe in terms of centuries. they found that “overall. In addition.” In describing their findings. they found that “72% of the Antarctic ice sheet is gaining 27 ± 29 Gt per year.” which together comprise “72% of the grounded ice sheet.” which result they describe as “remarkable. 2006) to simulate Antarctic climate for the periods 1981-2000 (to test the model’s ability to adequately simulate present conditions) and 20812100 (to see what the future might hold for the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its impact on global sea level). readily admit. first by measuring the difference between mass input and output. “the GRACE data time series is still very short and these results must be considered as preliminary since we cannot exclude that the apparent trends discussed in this study only reflect interannual fluctuations. “requires knowledge of the density at which the volume changes have occurred. which was derived from elevation changes based on nine years of satellite radar altimetry data obtained from the European Remote-sensing Satellites ERS-1 and -2.!and!Sea!Level! ! previous estimates by as much as 15%.. surface sublimation (SU). the data. corrected for isostatic rebound. This work revealed. first. show the ice sheet growing at 5 ± 1 mm per year. to calculate the flux of solid precipitation (Ps).” with the largest differences between their results and those of others being “up to one meter per year higher in the coastal zones of East and West Antarctica. leading to a sea-level rise of 0.” concluding that “support or falsification of this result can only be found in new SMB observations from poorly covered high accumulation regions in coastal Antarctica. they note that “later.08 mm per year. And after analyzing all of the datadriven results for trends over the period 1980-2004. as we noted in our discussion of the Velicogna and Wahr paper. (2006) employed a regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2).!Precipitation. Even at that. In doing so. according to Wingham et al. and third by modeling both the dynamic and climatic evolution of the continent.” Remy and Frezzotti (2006) reviewed “the results given by three different ways of estimating mass balance. leading to a thickening of the ice sheet and thus a decrease in sea level.2 x 108 European remote sensing satellite altimeter echoes to determine the changes in volume of the Antarctic ice sheet from 1992 to 2003. and surface melt (ME). they found that “even without snowdrift-related processes. second by monitoring the changing geometry of the continent. (2007) used the LMDZ4 atmospheric general circulation model (Hourdin et al. in their words.” and when the researchers’ best estimates of regional differences in this parameter were used. the four Dutch researchers report that “no trend is found in any of the Antarctic SSMB components. that “the 197 . (2005).” In the same year.

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Annals of Glaciology 30: 27-34. F. Z. 2004. 2005.. and Fily.. occurs because the simulated temperature increase “leads to Karlof. A. J. Nyman. S. Le Van.S. Pourchet. Grandpeix. New estimations of precipitation and surface on continental scales.. O. Benshila. A.. Boucher. Jung-Rothenhausler. P.. an outcome.Y... The LMDZ4 general circulation model: corresponds “to a sea-level decrease of 1.. L. Graf.. G. M. Polcher. 2004. Urbini.. Krinner. R. Simulated Antarctic precipitation and suggest just the opposite. S. P. Levy... Pinglot.. i. A. M.. 2005. J.-G.. increases by 32 mm water equivalent per year. Gay. Simmonds. Bellier. W... would be reasonably accurate as well. D. P. available. J. 26. C. including latitudinal and longitudinal transects in East Antarctica. Genthon. That seems to be the message of most of Magand... Antarctica. Fairhead. Fairhead. IPSL. Pourchet. Magand. Winther. and Hamilton. Filiberti.L.. Hourdin.. 2006.T. J. C.. F. Annals of Glaciology 29: 1-9. 2005) that were carried out with the IPSL-CM4 Sneed. and Andrews. subject/w/waisbalance.” which gave them confidence sublimation in East Antarctica from snow accumulation that their results for the end of the twenty-first century measurements.. A 1500-year capacity of warmer air. can be found at http://www.. and Talandier. I. G. and Ferguson.

” there were indications that its grounding line was retreating at a rate that suggested complete dissolution of the WAIS in another 4.L. Pine Island Glacier.. C. E.R. T.!Sea!Ice. D. V. and Alley. Reassessment of the Antarctic surface mass balance using calibrated output of a regional atmospheric climate model. R. Brenner. A.M. 2000. with melting of 199 . Measurements of timevariable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica. G. With respect to potential climate change. D. A.. Isaksson.” and there were no broad-based data that supported that scenario. G.B. However..J.J. East Antarctica. 2006. van Meijgaard.R. Annals of Glaciology 35: 107-110. we bring this body of research together in one place and add other research summaries.. Journal of Climate 12: 933946. Shepherd. R.A. Reassessment of net surface mass balance in Antarctica.1029/JD000755. G. Pinglot. W.. M. M.D. Wingham. 1999. which resulted in an expanding Ross Ice Shelf. Climatic Change 68: 257-267.. Reeh determined there was a broad consensus that the effect of a 1°C climatic warming on the Antarctic ice sheet would be a fall in global sea level on the order of 0. F. E. A year later. Reeh (1999) reviewed what was known about the mass balances of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. L.. and Cooper. and Frezzotti. M.H.. J. the retreat of the ice sheet’s grounding line had been faster than that of its ice front. 2006.G. and van Meijgaard. J. Cazenave.R. Muir. M. Beckley.. M.R. Marshall. Ridout.A. Llubes. and Morgan.!and!Sea!Level! ! Oppenheimer. A. C. in Bindschadler’s words.P. 2005. This work revealed that from the time of the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. van de Berg. Antarctica: A study of the catchment using interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements and radar altimetry.. J. Cuffey and Marshall (2000) reevaluated previous model estimates of the Greenland ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial. van Ommen.. J. Van den Broeke. and Yi. and Bentley. Mulvaney. F. Lombard. Ivins. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10. Stenoien. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10.. T. Zwally. J. M.. 2006.K.1029/2005JD006495. L. Their results suggested that the Greenland ice sheet was much smaller during the last interglacial than previously thought. 1999.J.7 millimeters per year. global warming.761-21.!Precipitation. T... J. Wingham. concluding that the future contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to global sea level depends upon their past climate and dynamic histories as much as it does upon future climate..C. Smith. M.1123785.. E. and Wahr. 2002.. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 364: 1627-1635.-G.J. I. even the smallest of these rates-of-rise would require. W. East Antarctica.3. and article 2 of the UNFCCC. Bamber. Antarctic elevation change from 1992 to 1996..J.779. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 338: 1084-1097. and Reijmer.J.5. Remy. Karlof. Such a retreat was calculated to result in a sustained sea-level rise of 8-13 cm per century.D. Vaughn. Interannual variations of the mass balance of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets from GRACE. The following year.J. Saba..000 years.1126science. R. Giovinetto.J. Climate variables along a traverse line in Dronning Maud Land. Velicogna.. Morris. and Shum. van den Broeke. Lachlan-Cope..L.3. B. Identification of Antarctic ablation areas using a regional atmospheric climate model. J. D.. Van den Broeke. “a large negative mass balance for all of West Antarctica. J.. Spatial variability of Antarctic Peninsula net surface mass balance. Distribution of oxygen isotope ratios and snow accumulation rates in Wilhelm II Land. R. Journal of Glaciology 51: 509-527.I. 2006. Winther.1029/2006JD007127.B. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 10.. A. Giovinetto. Russell. M. W.2 to 0. and Biancale. Bindschadler (1998) analyzed the WAIS’s historical retreat in terms of its grounding line and ice front. Li. Ramillien.000 to 7.. 2006. M. H. E.J... Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 21. Cornejo. Van de Berg. Reijmer. Arthern.G. M. C. 2005. based on a recalibration of oxygen-isotope-derived temperatures from central Greenland ice cores. Antarctica ice sheet mass balance.Observations:!Glaciers. Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.. H. Global and Planetary Change 53: 198-208.T.R.. R. and Marshall. 2006. A.. 4. Ice sheets. In this final section on the WAIS. 1998. E. Scharroo. and Conrads. D. and Winter. Remy. Eiken. Journal of Glaciology 45: 295-302. A. 2002. Although Bindschadler wrote that “the ice front now appears to be nearly stable. Science 282: 456-458. C. A. West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Sea Level Many of the studies of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) cited in the previous sections of this report address its past and future effects on sea level.. Turner.. Sciencexpress: 10. Mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and contributions to sea-level rise: 1992-2002.F.

However. “the GRACE data time series is still very and five-and-a-half meters to sea-level rise.3. since they calculated that the East Antarctic 3 short-time scale. first by measuring the difference between Experiment (GRACE) satellites to determine mass mass input and output.” which they describe in terms of Ice Sheet mass balance was 0 ± 56 km /year. Greenland Ice Sheets. they note that “later. the study covers less than a three-year general circulation model of Hourdin et al. leading to a thickening of the ice sheet described in Section 4.” analyzed European remote sensing satellite altimeter Oppenheimer and Alley (2005) discussed “the echoes to determine the changes in volume of the degree to which warming can affect the rate of ice Antarctic ice sheet from 1992 to 2003. (2006) also used GRACE data to Antarctic Ice Sheet and its impact on global sea derive estimates of the mass balances of the East and level). (2006) sensitive to climate change.” They report that “the current response decreased significantly.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! 0.” That caveat also applies to the of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. particularly on the ice sheets had made a significant contribution to seaAntarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica. which results yielded a net ice twenty-first century. exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West One year later.” other. obtaining a loss of 107 ± 23 km3/year equivalent per year. hypothesis that the West Antarctic is particularly About the same time.” which corresponds “to a seafor West Antarctica and a gain of 67 ± 28 km3/year level decrease of 1. The two modeling both the dynamic and climatic evolution of researchers concluded that “the ice sheet mass the continent.” which would in turn “lead to a loss for the entire continent of only 40 km3/year cumulated sea-level decrease of about 6 cm. this finding suggests preliminary since we cannot exclude that the apparent that “high sea levels during the last interglacial should trends discussed in this study only reflect interannual not be interpreted as evidence for extensive melting fluctuations. leading to a sea-level rise of 0. (2007). Ramillien et al. the and thus a decrease in sea level..” This (which translates to a mean sea-level rise of 0.” to a different view of the issue when Velicogna and Remy and Frezzotti (2006) reviewed “the results Wahr (2006) used measurements of time-variable given by three different ways of estimating mass gravity from the Gravity Recovery and Climate balance.. equivalent to 0.08 mm/year.3. in a study summarized in the signal being sought by nearly a factor of five. For example.2 mm/year of global seabackground trend due to the retreat of the grounding level rise. Section 5. short and these results must be considered as According to Hvidberg (2000). and third by between April 2002 and August 2005. They determined that “the simulated Antarctic West Antarctic ice sheets for the period July 2002 to surface mass balance increases by 32 mm water March 2005.11 result occurs because the simulated temperature mm/year).3. which compares poorly with the findings of simulate Antarctic climate for the periods 1981-2000 Zwally et al. Their review of the subject led according to Wingham et al.08 mm per year. level rise over the past several decades.” all of which mass loss came from the line. and so challenges the Velicogna and Wahr analysis. second by monitoring the variations of the Antarctic ice sheet for the 34 months changing geometry of the continent. used the LMDZ4 atmospheric Moreover. (2005). note in their closing the ice sheet contributing somewhere between four paragraph.5.2 mm per year by the end of the for East Antarctica. the The many estimates and adjustments used by precipitation increase will counterbalance this Velicogna and Wahr to reach this conclusion were residual signal. They found loss by altering the mass balance between that “72% of the Antarctic ice sheet is gaining 27 ± 29 precipitation rates on the one hand. however. a sink of ocean mass sufficient to lower ice discharge to the ocean through ice streams on the [their italics] global sea levels by 0. as opposed to the 152 km3/year ice loss increase “leads to an increased moisture transport calculated by Velicogna and Wahr (which translates towards the interior of the continent because of the to a nearly four times larger mean sea-level rise of 200 .4 mm/yr over the WAIS.4 ± 0. the world was exposed Antarctica. Wingham et al. who determined Antarctica’s (to test the model’s ability to adequately simulate contribution to mean global sea level over a recent present conditions) and 2081-2100 (to see what the nine-year period to be only 0. (2006) to period.6. occurs because “mass them to conclude that we simply do not know if these gains from accumulating snow.2.” with respect to both the West Antarctic and This net extraction of water from the global ocean. and melting and Gt per year.40 mm/year). centuries.” adjustment for post-glacial rebound alone exceeded Krinner et al. at a rate of 152 ± 80 km3/year of the Antarctica ice sheet is dominated by the of ice. future might hold for the mass balance of the Ramillien et al.

Bellier. Cuffey. 2006.G.. Braconnot.. 2005.. J.. Hourdin. ISSN 1288-1619. J.J.. M. Fichefet. Remy. Zwally. Otto-Bliesner et al. Kerr. Additional information on this topic. 2005. Science 282: 428-429. When Greenland ice melts. F. L. Joughin. F. Measurements of timevariable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica. and Marshall. R.L.. Muir.. Greenland Ice Cap Studies of the growth and decay of polar ice sheets are of great importance because of the relationships of these phenomena to global warming and the impacts they can have on sea level. M. P. and Frezzotti.. Brenner.. In the March 24. S. Remy. 2006. Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: Can modern observation methods reduce the uncertainty? Geografiska Annaler 81A: 735-742. 26.1123785.. 2006. 2006. R. Overpeck et al. 2006. Filiberti. Ramillien. A. F.. N.. Levy.org/ subject/w/waissealevel. 2007.. 2006. 2006. and Biancale. and there will probably be little change in both the near and far future. C. S. 2000. A. E. C. F. Li. Krinner. In the case of the latter possibility. Foujols. Madec. Cornejo. rapid. Reeh. 4. P. References Bindschadler. they determined that (1) all of the best-recorded quakes were 201 .1126science. and Lott. D. Filiberti. What wastage might occur along the coastal area of the ice sheet over the long term would likely be countered. I. Interannual variations of the mass balance of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets from GRACE.J. and Wahr. 2006. The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parameterized physics with emphasis on tropical convection.1029/2005GL023619. Ice sheets. Beckley. O. Dufresne.5. H. Geophysical Research Letters 32: 10.. Kennedy and Hanson.J. The new IPSL climate system model: IPSL-CM4. and Marshall. O. Braconnot.!Precipitation. Brockmann. I. or more than countered. including reviews of newer publications as they become available. and Dufresne.. Dufresne. J.S.A.co2science. Nature 404: 591-594.-L.A. P. Cadule. Fairhead. S..!Sea!Ice. 2005. Climatic Change 68: 257-267.. F. M.. Magand. Simmonds. Boucher. G. C. S. J. F. 2006 issue of Science. Giovinetto. P.. P. Musat..M. Denvil. Note du Pole de Modelisation n.. Hourdin. causing the continent’s ice sheet to grow. the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet could well compensate for any long-term wastage of the Greenland Ice Sheet that might occur. J. and accelerating sea-level rise (Bindschadler. There has been very little change in global sea level due to wastage of the WAIS over the past few decades. and article 2 of the UNFCCC. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 364: 1627-1635. M. Simulated Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.Y. G.... while dispensing dire warnings of an imminent large.... Consider the report of Ekstrom et al. G. Krinner. Bony.. Grandpeix.C. M. wherein the unnerving phenomena were attributed to anthropogenic-induced global warming. Sciencexpress: 10. Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. Bony. M. Li. Wingham.. Future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. 2006. we review a number of such studies that pertain to the Greenland Ice Sheet. K..A.. Shepherd. A.Observations:!Glaciers..B.. several commentaries heralded accelerating discharges of glacial ice from Greenland and Antarctica. Benshila. Friedlingstein. Codron. L. Grandpeix. J. Hvidberg. In this section. Nature 404: 551-552. J.. global warming.B. G..php. L.. J. Cazenave. C. J. 2005. Llubes. Caubel. Denvil..A. T.. I. J. Dufresne. and Talandier. Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet. 2000.Y. M. P. Genthon. D. Oppenheimer. Krinner. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 338: 1084-1097.. Mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and contributions to sea-level rise: 1992-2002. Climate Dynamics 27: 787-813. Le Van. Global and Planetary Change 53: 198-208. Velicogna. Musat. by greater inland snowfall. Quaas..4. Over the period from January 1993 to October 2005. I. O.. M.” where the extra moisture falls as precipitation. J.. H.. Fairhead.. S. N.. G. Marti.L.L. who studied “glacial earthquakes” caused by sudden sliding motions of glaciers on Greenland.. 2006).. P.R. A. Polcher... Ivins.!and!Sea!Level! ! higher moisture holding capacity of warmer air.. and Alley. R. R. J. IPSL.. Z. Contrasts in the effects on climate of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols between the 20th and the 21st century. Lombard.. and Yi. Friedlingstein. A. 2006). Saba. Climate Dynamics 28: 215-230. Journal of Glaciology 51: 509-527. This distressing news was based largely on three reports published in the same issue (Ekstrom et al. can be found at http://www. Antarctica ice sheet mass balance. 1998. de NobletDucoudre. G. 1999.J..X. and Fairhead.. A..L.. 2006..

in qualitative agreement with reported coastal Greenland stations located within the same thinning in the ice-sheet margins. ABC News on March 23. twice as many events have been detected as in and when the mass balance of the entire Greenland any year before 2002.’s analysis. found to be producing a 0. To the contrary. who in the very same issue elevation-change rate is [a negative] 2.4 ± 0. quite a different result was obtained than in glacial activity on Greenland. the highest temperatures since the saying he believes that “right now” the Greenland Ice beginning of instrumental observation occurred Sheet is experiencing a net loss of mass. their confirmation observed in the 19th century.0 ± 0.2 cm/year. that cumulatively since the In light of these several other studies of realearly 1990s and conservatively (since the balance is world observations.” which sentiment appears to be “growing inland with a small overall mass gain. and for which data are available.e.” These findings led him would only demonstrate just how rapidly the to conclude that the meteorological record “shows Greenland environment can change. Unwilling to join that conclusion. “the temperature predictions produced present and immediate future.” (3) the most recent radar and laser observations.” and (3) “to date in inland ice accumulation derived from precipitation.” analyses suggest. We would have that the observed variations in air temperature in the to wait and see how long the mass losses prevailed in real Arctic are in many aspects not consistent with the order to assess their significance within the context of projected climatic changes computed by climatic the CO2-induced global warming debate..03 ± 0. to the latter researchers. For the models for the enhanced greenhouse effect. for the 11-year period 1992-2003.” (2) “even in the 1950s the says Zwally’s belief is “based on his gut feeling about temperature was higher than in the last 10 years. the other half being of events is seen starting in 2002. there has been no net loss of in glacial activity on Greenland likely has had nothing mass from the Greenland Ice Sheet.” ice sheet was recently assessed via satellite radar With respect to the reason for the recent increase altimetry.” it is with global warming.9 presented histories of summer temperature at four cm/year. as The recent study by Eldrett et al.” Consequently. temperature anomalies of 30 grid-boxes from the In an attempt to downplay the significance of updated dataset of Jones by Przybylak (2000) found these inconvenient findings.” but that “an latitude range as the sites of the glacial earthquakes. It is associated with major outlet glaciers on the east and also important to recognize the fact that coastal west coasts of Greenland between approximately 65 glacial discharge represents only half of the equation and 76°N latitude. therefore. the net result. “or ~60 cm over 11 years. et al.” a position that is supported by experienced no net loss of mass over the last decade many scientists cited previously in this chapter. Joughin concluded that the 0. Why? Kerr clearly in the 1930s. Kerr quoted Zwally as (1) “in the Arctic.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! 1920s. to do with anthropogenic-induced global warming. likely host to a net accumulation of ice.” and (4) “the level of temperature in world measurements. or ~54 cm recent warming in Greenland “is too short to when corrected for isostatic uplift. 2006 quoted Ekstrom as Zwally et al. (2) “a clear increase in the number relating to sea-level change. was a mean increase of 5. which was clearly a natural phenomenon. in his words. it was more in the discussion that follows.” Spatially averaged region back in the 1930s than it was over the period over the bulk of the ice sheet.4 ± Based on these data. Clayton Sandell of that suggested by the seven Science papers. (2005) found that “below 1500 meters.” Gut “since the mid-1970s. The five researchers from the School of 202 . (2007) provides temperatures there have yet to rise either as fast or as further evidence that the IPCC’s view of melting sea high as they did during the great warming of the ice is wrong.” In shared by almost all of the authors of the seven fact. which Zwally A study based on mean monthly temperatures of et al.” because. was Joughin. it is clear that the recent upswing likely still positive). i. and even if Zwally’s intestines Greenland in the last 10-20 years is similar to that are ultimately found to be correct. according of Ekstrom et al. 2005. increase of 6.2 cm/year is found in the vast which histories suggest that it was warmer in this interior areas above 1500 meters.01 mm/year 37 Arctic and seven sub-Arctic stations and decline in sea-level. (2005) found that although “the saying “I think it is very hard not to associate this Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins. the however. the determine whether it is an anthropogenic effect or Greenland Ice Sheet would appear to have natural variability. we have no by numerical climate models significantly differ from choice but to stick with what existent data and those actually observed. Johannessen Science articles. the annual temperature shows feelings are a poor substitute for comprehensive realno clear trend.

surface water temperatures at high latitude. Continuing. they say their detailed core observations revealed evidence for “extensive icerafted debris.000 meters they found areas of both thinning and thickening. and these phenomena nearly balanced each other.!and!Sea!Level! Ocean and Earth Science of the National Oceanography Centre of the University of Southampton in the UK report they “have generated a new stratigraphy for three key Deep Sea Drilling Project/Ocean Drilling Program sites by calibrating dinocyst events to the geomagnetic polarity timescale. however. by extension. Here. Unfortunately.!Precipitation. Krabill et al.” At lower elevations. which averaged 4 mm/year in the south and 5 mm/year in the north. including macroscopic dropstones. their data “provide the first stratigraphically extensive evidence for the existence of continental ice in the Northern Hemisphere during the Palaeogene. thinning was found to predominate along approximately 70 percent of the coast. the entire region exhibited a net thickening of 5 ± 5 mm/year. were much warmer. but in correcting for bedrock uplift.” and they conclude that their data thus suggest “the existence of (at least) isolated glaciers on Greenland about 20 million years earlier than previously documented. in fact.” which records indicate atmospheric CO2 concentrations fully two to seven times greater than the pre-anthropogenic level during the time of the newly detected ice sheets. the average thickening rate decreased to practically nothing.Observations:!Glaciers. The authors further note that even if the thinning was real.” Then. is that it indicates the presence of glacial ice on Greenland “at a time when temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were substantially higher. at a time when global deep water temperatures and. is that “palaeoclimate model experiments generate substantial ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere for the Eocene only in runs where carbon dioxide levels are lower (approaching the pre-anthropogenic level) than suggested by proxy records. They note that they do not have a “satisfactory explanation” for the “widespread thinning at elevations below 2000 m. they interpolated between this calculated coastal thinning rate and the nearest observed elevation changes to obtain their final answer: a total net reduction in ice volume of 51 km3/year. while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were as much as four times greater than they are today.” They further report that their data “indicate sediment rafting by glacial ice. together with ! previously reported data from southern Greenland. Above an elevation of 2.” as the researchers say.” Therefore—and also “by extension”—we now have evidence of a much warmer period of time that failed to melt the Greenland Ice Sheet.” How much higher? According to graphs the researchers present. (2000) used data obtained from aircraft laser-altimeter surveys over northern Greenland in 1994 and 1999. Altogether. We question their significance. But they admit in their final sentence that “we have no evidence for such changes.” What is particularly interesting about this finding.” It would seem logical to admit this study resolves almost nothing about the mass balance of the coastal regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet and nothing about the subject of global warming and its 203 . to evaluate the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. so that in the south there was a net thinning of 11 ± 7 mm/year. The problem these observations provide for those who hold to the view that global warming will melt the Greenland Ice Sheet.” In doing so. and we cannot explain why they should apply to many glaciers in different parts of Greenland.” After discussing some other factors that could be involved. flight lines were few and far between. in late Eocene to early Oligocene sediments from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea that were deposited between about 38 and 30 million years ago. ocean bottom-water temperatures were 5-8°C warmer. while in the north there was a net thickening of 14 ± 7 mm/year. Krabill et al. as Eldrett et al. so few and far between. it could not be due to global or regional warming. and the researchers themselves do the same. state they are left with changes in ice dynamics as the most likely cause of the hypothetical ice sheet thinning. rather than sea ice. to quote Eldrett et al. that the researchers said that “in order to extend our estimates to the edge of the ice sheet in areas not bounded by our surveys.” which “is about 20 million years earlier than previously documented.!Sea!Ice. since Greenland temperature records indicate “the 1980s and early 1990s were about half a degree cooler than the 96year mean. “Regardless. it is difficult to know what estimates derived from interpolations based on calculations of a hypothetical thinning rate mean..” which suggests that the reason this phenomenon is unexplainable is that it may not be real. to describe the net balance was “zero. and point to East Greenland as the likely source. describe it. The word used by Krabill et al. we calculated a hypothetical thinning rate on the basis of the coastal positive degree day anomalies.

5°C. the temperature data concentrating on the results of 14 satellite-based “show that a warming trend occurred in the Nuuk estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that fjord during the first 50 years of the 1900s.” Finally. the part of the Northern problem with what the two researchers have observed Hemisphere that holds the lion’s share of the with respect to Greenland’s glaciers. “suggest that special care must be taken in Greenland’s contribution to rising sea levels. (2007) report that the two acceleration.” What is more. Even this unimpressive sea-level increase may be Taurisano et al. a comparable increase in words. (2004) described indicated by the work of Zwally et al. went on to claim that “as more glaciers accelerate .15 mm/year. therefore. Greenland would appear to have Nuuk fjord.35 millimeters per year. (2005). which we cited earlier. These studies have by a cooling over the second part of the century.” When actual measurements of the ice In a preliminary step required to better understand sheet via satellite radar altimetry are employed. on measurements for this evaluation. and measurements of the ice sheets’ trend there was also what they describe as “a changing gravitational attraction—and they have remarkable increase in the number of snowfall days yielded a diversity of values.” And these observations. (2005) and the temperature trends of the Nuuk fjord area during Johannessen et al.” As they describe it.” Calculating that this phenomenon had glaciers’ rates of mass loss “decreased in 2006 to near led to a doubling of the ice sheet mass deficit in the the previous rates. but we feel hemisphere’s ice has been cooling for the past halfcompelled to note that what they have calculated with century.” term trends. One number of snowfall days over much of Greenland has reason for this discrepancy is that instead of relying increased so dramatically over the same time period. because the annual contradicted by more inclusive real-world data. but also the summer conclude that the current “best estimate” of the mean. particularly when extrapolating into the future.” Coincident with this cooling changes. In addition. the past century. as suggested fall-equivalent of 0. followed have been derived since 1998. ranging from a sea(+59 days). we have no In conclusion. remark that the temperature data they too large an estimate. wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets. and August) exhibit a pattern in agreement with the Shepherd and Wingham (2007) reviewed what is trends observed at other stations in south and west known about sea-level contributions arising from Greenland (Humlum 1999. they report that “not only level-rise-equivalent of 1. July decade. and surface phenomenon.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! al. precipitation.. In their concluding discussion. when been of three major types—standard mass budget the average annual temperatures decreased by analyses.” With respect to these contentions.” in less than a year in 2004—causing the IPCC to Rignot and Kanagaratnam (2005) used satellite claim the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding much radar interferometry observations of Greenland to more rapidly to global warming than anyone had ever detect what they described as “widespread glacier expected—Howat et al. making it respect to the mass balance of Greenland’s Ice Sheet unlikely that its frozen water will be released to the and what they say it implies about sea level are world’s oceans.. mass balance. Hanna and Cappelen. Taurisano et al. they how mass-balance estimates are evaluated. the contribution of Greenland to sea-level rise will because short-term spikes could yield erroneous longcontinue to increase. and contrary to the claim of Rignot and data led them to conclude that “at all stations in the Kanagaratnam. Rignot and it is possible that enhanced accumulation of snow on Kanagaratnam relied on the calculations of Hanna et 204 . in their past decade and. runoff.” noting that “the summer cooling is rather contribution of polar ice wastage (from both important information for glaciological studies. which over a report there was no significant trend in annual century amounts to only 35 millimeters. who used meteorological models “to effect or non-effect upon this hypothetical retrieve annual accumulation. as in West Greenland. and at a very significant rate. This analysis of all pertinent regional Consequently. due to Greenland and Antarctica) to global sea-level change the ablation-temperature relations. altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume approximately 1. a the relationship of glacier dynamics to climate change decidedly different perspective is obtained. 2003). (2005). The two researchers by Hannna and Cappelen (2002).0 mm/year to a sea-leveldid the cooling affect the winter months. both the annual mean and the average experienced no ice sheet mass deficit in the past temperature of the three summer months (June. they is a rise of 0. for although two of Greenland’s studied “reveal a pattern which is common to most largest outlet glaciers doubled their rates of mass loss other stations in Greenland.

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7. Unlike the IPCC. mediated by cosmic ray fluxes and changes in global cloud cover. In Chapters 3 and 4 we showed that observations do not confirm the temperatures and weather trends the IPCC said should exist if its theory were true. Rather. Monsoons 5. Irradiance 5. Solar Variability and Climate Cycles 5. 2007-I. and then survey the evidence linking solar variability to climate phenomena both ancient and recent.2. . droughts. The IPCC’s authors even tell us they have decided there is a better-than-90-percent probability that their shared opinion is true. play a larger role in regulating the earth’s temperature. nor do we confuse it with a forecast of future weather patterns.30] W m–2. p.06 to +0. the general circulation models upon which the IPCC rests its case are notoriously unreliable. followed by research on irradiance. in contrast to the IPCC’s agenda-driven focus on making its case against GHG. 10). including projected increases in GHG emissions. Floods 5. In the spirit of genuine scientific inquiry.3.! 5 ! Solar Variability and Climate Cycles ! 5. precipitation.4.12 [+0.66 W m–2 from CO2 over the same time period (pp. Precipitation 5. Temperature 5. According to the IPCC. We begin with a discussion of cosmic rays.” which is an order of magnitude smaller than their estimated net anthropogenic forcing of +1. monsoons. floods.1. the studies summarized in this chapter suggest the IPCC has got it backwards. Streamflow! ! Introduction The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations [italics in the original]” (IPCC. In this chapter we set out evidence in favor of an alternative theory of climate change that holds that variations in the sun’s output and magnetic field. “changes in solar irradiance since 1750 are estimated to cause a radiative forcing of +0. However. we make the case for this alternative theory to demonstrate how much we don’t know about earth’s climate.4).5. 3.6. and other climate features than any past or expected human activities. Cosmic Rays 5. and therefore how wrong it is to assume that human activity is responsible for any variability in the climate that we cannot explain by pointing to already known forcings or feedbacks. In Chapter 2 we documented feedback factors and forcings that the IPCC clearly overlooked. we do 207 not invent a measure of our confidence in this theory. that it is the sun’s influence that is responsible for most climate change during the past century and beyond. Droughts 5. But as we demonstrated in Chapter 1. we examine some research that is truly on the frontiers of climate research today.8.

Manning. (Eds. Tignor. as noted by Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Svensmark. S. the cosmic ray flux would have been condensation nuclei. M.” when.” solar radiation at the surface of the earth as modulated In another expansion of timescale—this one by variations in earth’s orbit and rotational highlighting the work of Shaviv (2002. “ever-changing galactic environments and starresulting in fewer and less reflective low-level clouds formation rates. In doing so. (1999). Cambridge. with the climatic data showing (2007).000 years virtually every centennial time-scale of Milankovitch (1920. while surrogate measurements of the period. M. Director of the Center for Sun-Climate “rhythmic cooling of the earth whenever the sun Research of the Danish National Space Center. Solomon.1. who in studying ice-rafted debris in the North Atlantic Ocean determined. Subsequent investigations implicated Shaviv and Veizer (2003)—Svensmark presents plots a number of other solar phenomena that operate on of reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies both shorter and longer timescales. in a miniultra-small clusters of sulfuric acid and water starburst 2400-2000 million years ago. when Svensmark says References “sunspots were extremely scarce and the solar magnetic field was exceptionally weak.Climate!Change!Reconsidered! ! Minimum (1645-1715). greater observations. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth which last hundred-year interval.000 years. In light of these many diverse periods of greater solar magnetic activity. 2003) and characteristics. well as by the history of changes in the flux of they were able to show that the total magnetic flux galactic cosmic rays since 1700. UK. 1941). that “over the past 12. and Svensmark cites the work of Bond et al. resulting in have uncovered evidence for several of the linkages increasing near-surface air temperatures and global described by Svensmark in his overview of what we warming. D.. during which time the solar system experienced that involve galactic cosmic rays. Cosmic Rays warm phases. which leads to more solar radiation being Several studies conducted over the past 10 years absorbed by the surface of the earth. Qin. Averyt. who crossed the galactic midplane. “the sun’s coronal magnetic field doubled Climate Change. of molecules that constitute the building blocks of cloud course.” occurring.” as are fewer cloud condensation nuclei being produced. as magnetic flux leaving the sun since 1868. Marquis. in Svensmark’s words. of which the most recent were the Medieval Warm Period (roughly AD 900-1300) and The study of extraterrestrial climatic forcing factors is the Modern Warm Period (since 1900). four passages through the spiral arms of the Milky We begin with the review paper of Svensmark Way galaxy. “over the Historically. he notes that the experimentally determined that electrons released to “Snowball Earth” period of some 2. K. resulting in less cosmic winds and magnetism are crucial factors in the origin rays penetrating to the lower atmosphere. this field of inquiry began with the work last 12. who this scenario with graphs illustrating the close examined measurements of the near-earth correspondence between global low-cloud amount interplanetary magnetic field to determine the total and cosmic-ray counts over the period 1984-2004. (2001).. H.B. could call the cosmic ray-climate connection. Z.” Chen. in strength. resulting in and viability of life on wet earth-like planets..3 billio