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Weather Science Haiti v 1.6

Weather Science Haiti v 1.6

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Over 1 million Haitians reside in tents or shacks, without adequate protection from seasonal severe weather which is typical for Haiti. The rainy season, combined with lack of good sanitation, has a direct impact on medical risks. There is also food insecurity. Weather and climate info helps planners see urgency of resolving high risk of another disaster.

Prior to the 2010 Jan earthquake, there were supposedly enough cyclone shelters for entire Haitian population. Those inside quake area (Port au Prince and many points to South and South West) were obliterated. Millions of Haitians left those devastated areas, and moved to live in communities outside the quake zone, some of which have now increased in population 130-150%, while their cyclone capacity has not increased. Thus, all over Haiti there is an emergency need for severe weather shelter capacity, which is not being met.
Over 1 million Haitians reside in tents or shacks, without adequate protection from seasonal severe weather which is typical for Haiti. The rainy season, combined with lack of good sanitation, has a direct impact on medical risks. There is also food insecurity. Weather and climate info helps planners see urgency of resolving high risk of another disaster.

Prior to the 2010 Jan earthquake, there were supposedly enough cyclone shelters for entire Haitian population. Those inside quake area (Port au Prince and many points to South and South West) were obliterated. Millions of Haitians left those devastated areas, and moved to live in communities outside the quake zone, some of which have now increased in population 130-150%, while their cyclone capacity has not increased. Thus, all over Haiti there is an emergency need for severe weather shelter capacity, which is not being met.

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: Alister William Macintyre on Feb 16, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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01/11/2013

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Earthquakes can and will strike againin the same place.42

Such as Port-au-Prince in 1751,

1770, and January 12, 2010.
A lot of people are predicting earthquakes.43

How many of them are actually close to being
correct? It is no good to predict one in USA, because almost every day there is one in
Alaska.Wikipedia says the following, for an earthquake prediction to be considered any
good:44

contain the expected magnitude with error limits;
well defined area of the epicenter;
range of dates;
probability of this to come true;
data from which the prediction was derived must be verifiable;
analysis of these data must be reproducible.
Due to a growth in people making earthquake predictions, where their credentials are
uncertain, many news stories attempt to correlate serious earthquakes with these predictions.
Many of the writers have fragmentary info of what is known various places around the
world, so frequently we find statements in the stories, we believe to be untrue.

38http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n11/full/ngeo992.html
39http://www.nature.com/ngeo/index.html
40http://earthquake-report.com/category/earthquake-linked-subjects/earthquake-preparedness/
41http://www.analyticbridge.com/profiles/blogs/interesting-risk-maps
42http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-2765-haiti-earthquake-unfortunately-we-expect-other-earthquakes.html
43http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm
http://earthquakepredictionbytiempe.blogspot.com/
http://tobefree.wordpress.com/2011/03/16/earthquake-prediction-2011-jim-berkland-a-major-earthquake-in-
north-america-imminent/
44http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_prediction

24 Weather and natural phenomena Science risks to Haiti

On May 11, 2011 many people stayed away from Rome Italy, due to an earthquake
prediction, by the late Raffaele Bendandi.45

On May 11, 2011 there was an earthquake in

Southern Spain.46

Any correlation? Not according to Wikipedia standards above.

Who was Raffaele Bendandi?

Born in 1893 in central Italy
In November 1923, he predicted a quake would strike on January 2, 1924
Two days after this date, it did, in Italian province of Le Marche
Mussolini made him a Knight of the Order of the Crown of Italy
But he also banned Bendandi from making public predictions, on pain of exile

Thus we can see that the same person can make several predictions. One, or more, bang on
very accurate, others totally invalid.
Lots of people have theories about what accompanies quakes, whether easier to detect the
secondary effects, a lot of these theories have been discredited by prior scientists, but as
detection science gets more sensitive, shouldn’t they be rechecked?

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