# Business

Research Methods

William G. Zikmund

Chapter 21:

Univariate Statistics

Univariate Statistics

Test of statistical significance

Hypothesis testing one variable at a time

Hypothesis

Unproven proposition

Supposition that tentatively explains certain

facts or phenomena

Assumption about nature of the world

Hypothesis

An unproven proposition or supposition that

tentatively explains certain facts or

phenomena

± Null hypothesis

± Alternative hypothesis

Null Hypothesis

Statement about the status quo

No difference

Alternative Hypothesis

Statement that indicates the opposite of the

null hypothesis

Significance Level

Critical probability in choosing between the

null hypothesis and the alternative

hypothesis

Significance Level

Critical Probability

Confidence Level

Alpha

Probability Level selected is typically .05 or

.01

Too low to warrant support for the null

hypothesis

0 . 3 : ! Q

o

H

The null hypothesis that the mean is

equal to 3.0:

0 . 3 :

1

= Q H

The alternative hypothesis that the

mean does not equal to 3.0:

A Sampling Distribution

u=10

x

u=10

x

e=02ª

e=02ª

A Sampling Distribution

LOWER

LIMIT

UPPER

LIMIT

u=10

A Sampling Distribution

Critical values of u

Critical value - upper limit

n

S

Z ZS

X

= or u u

¦

'

+

'

=

225

5 . 1

96 . 1 0 . 3

1 . 0 96 . 1 0 . 3 =

196 . 0 . 3 =

196 . 3 =

Critical values of u

Critical value - lower limit

n

S

S - or - Q Q !

¦

¦

'

+

'

!

225

5 . 1

96 . 1 - 0 . 3

Critical values of Q

1 . 0 96 . 1 0 . 3 =

196 . 0 . 3 =

804 . 2 =

Critical values of u

Region of Rejection

LOWER

LIMIT

UPPER

LIMIT

u=10

Hypothesis Test u =10

2.804

3.196

u=10

3.78

Accept null Reject null

Null is true

Null is false

Correct Correct- -

no error no error

Type I Type I

error error

Type II Type II

error error

Correct Correct- -

no error no error

Type I and Type II Errors

Type I and Type II Errors

in Hypothesis Testing

State of Null Hypothesis Decision

in the Population Accept Ho Reject Ho

Ho is true Correct--no error Type I error

Ho is false Type II error Correct--no error

Calculating Z

obs

x s

x

z

obs

Q

=

X

obs

S

X

Z

Q

=

Alternate Way of Testing the

Hypothesis

X

obs

S

Q

!

78 . 3

1 .

0 . 3 78 . 3

=

1 .

78 . 0

= 8 . 7 =

Alternate Way of Testing the

Hypothesis

Choosing the Appropriate

Statistical Technique

Type of question to be answered

Number of variables

± Univariate

± Bivariate

± Multivariate

Scale of measurement

PARAMETRIC

STATISTICS

NONPARAMETRIC

STATISTICS

t-Distribution

Symmetrical, bell-shaped distribution

Mean of zero and a unit standard deviation

Shape influenced by degrees of freedom

Degrees of Freedom

Abbreviated d.f.

Number of observations

Number of constraints

or

X

l c

S t X

. .

s = Q

n

S

t X

l c . .

limit pper !

n

S

t X

l c . .

limit Lower =

Confidence Interval Estimate

Using the t-distribution

= population mean

= sample mean

= critical value of t at a specified confidence

level

= standard error of the mean

= sample standard deviation

= sample size

. .l c

t

Q

X

X

S

S

n

Confidence Interval Estimate Using

the t-distribution

x

cl

s t X s = Q

17

66 . 2

7 . 3

!

!

!

n

S

X

Confidence Interval Estimate Using

the t-distribution

07 . 5

) 17 66 . 2 ( 12 . 2 7 . 3 limit upper

!

!

33 . 2

) 17 66 . 2 ( 12 . 2 7 . 3 limit Lower

=

=

Hypothesis Test Using the

t-Distribution

Suppose that a production manager believes

the average number of defective assemblies

each day to be 20. The factory records the

number of defective assemblies for each of the

25 days it was opened in a given month. The

mean was calculated to be 22, and the

standard deviation, ,to be 5.

X

S

Univariate Hypothesis Test

Utilizing the t-Distribution

20 :

20 :

1

0

=

!

Q

Q

H

H

n S S

X

/ =

25 / 5 =

1 =

The researcher desired a 95 percent

confidence, and the significance level becomes

.05.The researcher must then find the upper

and lower limits of the confidence interval to

determine the region of rejection. Thus, the

value of t is needed. For 24 degrees of

freedom (n-1, 25-1), the t-value is 2.064.

Univariate Hypothesis Test

Utilizing the t-Distribution

: limit o er

25 / 5 064 . 2 20

. .

!

X

l c

S t Q

1 064 . 2 20 =

936 . 17 =

: limit Upper

25 / 5 064 . 2 20

. .

!

X

l c

S t Q

1 064 . 2 20 =

064 . 20 =

X

obs

S

X

t

Q

!

1

20 22

=

1

2

=

2 =

Univariate Hypothesis Test

t-Test

Testing a Hypothesis about a

Distribution

Chi-Square test

Test for significance in the analysis of

frequency distributions

Compare observed frequencies with

expected frequencies

³Goodness of Fit´

§

=

i

i i

)² (

²

E

E O

x

Chi-Square Test

x² = chi-square statistics

O

i

= observed frequency in the i

th

cell

E

i

= expected frequency on the i

th

cell

Chi-Square Test

n

C R

E

j i

ij

=

Chi-Square Test

Estimation for Expected Number

for Each Cell

Chi-Square Test

Estimation for Expected Number

for Each Cell

R

i

= total observed frequency in the i

th

row

C

j

= total observed frequency in the j

th

column

n = sample size

2

2

2 2

1

2

1 1

2

E

E O

E

E O

X

!

Univariate Hypothesis Test

Chi-square Example

50

50 40

50

50 60

2 2

2

= X

4 =

Univariate Hypothesis Test

Chi-square Example

Hypothesis Test of a Proportion

T is the population proportion

p is the sample proportion

T is estimated with p

5 . : H

5 . : H

1

0

{ T

= T

Hypothesis Test of a Proportion

100

4 . 0 6 . 0

=

p

S

100

24 .

=

0024 . =

04899 . =

p

S

p

Zobs

T

!

04899 .

5 . 6 .

=

04899 .

1 .

=

04 . 2 =

0115 . S

p

=

000133 . S

p

=

1200

16 .

S

p

=

1200

) 8 )(. 2 (.

S

p

=

n

pq

S

p

=

20 . p

=

200 , 1 n

=

Hypothesis Test of a Proportion:

Another Example

0115 . S

p

=

000133 . S

p

=

1200

16 .

S

p

=

1200

) 8 )(. 2 (.

S

p

=

n

pq

S

p

=

20 . p

=

200 , 1 n

=

Hypothesis Test of a Proportion:

Another Example

Indeed .001 the beyond t significant is it

level. .05 the at rejected be should hypothesis null the so 1.96, exceeds value Z The

348 . 4 Z

0115 .

05 .

Z

0115 .

15 . 20 .

Z

S

p

Z

p

=

=

=

T

=

Hypothesis Test of a Proportion:

Another Example