The Effects of Development on Crime Trends:

The Case of China, 1981-2009

Zhong Hua
Department of Sociology
The Chinese University of Hong Kong

One noteworthy theme in sociological/criminological writings is the effects of

modernization and economic development on crime. The present study tested four
theoretical explanations about this theme using China as an example: Durkheim’s anomie
theory, classic inequality thesis, Shelley’s modernization argument, and the formalization
process of social control. It is also a further research of Liu and his colleagues (2001;
2005) by extending observed time period to the most recent year and by bringing direct
measures of development indicators into analysis. Data are mainly derived from officially
published law yearbooks and statistics yearbooks in China. Official crime statistics from
two big cities (Shanghai and Shenzhen) are also included for sensitivity tests. Both
descriptive methods and advanced time-series techniques (Augmented Dickey-Fuller
tests and annual time-series regression modeling) are applied when examining the
theories. Almost all crimes in China increased before 21st century; after that, violent
crimes become relatively stable compared to the continuing increase of property offenses.
Overall, the findings show more support to the Shelley’s modernization thesis and
formalization of social control.