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“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal
and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
- Benjamin Graham, Intelligent Investor
Speculation emphasizes what you can make and pays little attention to what you
can lose.
Speculative urges (the desire to purchase assets for any reason other than
identifying an undervalued security based on sound and thorough analysis) are the
result of a desire for instant gratification and should be resisted.
“There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate: when he can’t afford it,
and when he can.” -- Mark Twain
The good news: Many market participants are really speculators, and speculators
can create opportunities for patient value investors.
• Sell as soon as you realize that an error was made in the original
investment thesis, or when the investment is fully priced.
• Be patient. It can take time for the market to present a truly compelling
opportunity that coincides with your circle of competence. And it can take
time for a catalyst to emerge that allows you to realize the value you see
in the investment.
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3. Valuing Businesses is the Key
There are three steps to valuing a business:
“Business, People, Price” - Mason Hawkins, Longleaf Funds
“Waiting for the catalyst to appear before buying an undervalued stock will result in the
purchase of a fully valued stock.”
- Bob Olstein
There are any number of things that can unlock value in a security.
Acquisitions, spin-offs, restructurings, management changes, the sale of
assets, or simply good news!
To widen your circle, study and learn how various business models work.
Some of the more common business models we encounter are listed
below:
Retail Restaurants
Service Real Estate (Rental, Commercial, Lodging)
Software Manufacturing (Heavy, Light, Design)
Banking Asset Management
Brokerage Subscriber (Newspaper, Cable, Telecom)
Drug Development Intellectual Property (Patents, Brands)
Natural Resources Transportation & Logistics
“Don’t trust anyone over thirty. And don’t trust anyone thirty and under. Do your
own work.”
- Joel Greenblatt, How to Be a Stock Market Genius
“Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy.”
- Warren Buffett
Absolute return oriented investors have the discipline to hold cash in the
absence of obvious bargains, knowing that opportunities will come to the
patient investor sooner or later.
“While we don’t like having excess cash, we like doing dumb things even less.”
-- Warren Buffett
When the stock price reflects full value and there is no margin of safety
remaining against significant loss.
When a demonstrably better idea becomes available.
When it becomes clear that the original estimate of fair value was flawed.
When the business fundamentals show signs of deterioration or new risk
factors emerge that substantially reduces the intrinsic value or threatens
the margin of safety.
Below are 18 different types of Value Ideas (from Value Investor Insight)
May’08 AOB announces record Q1 revenue and earnings, and projects 2008
sales of at least $245 million not including new acquisitions.
AOB also announces that it has made $16 million in deposit
payments towards multiple acquisitions to be closed later in 2008,
which are expected to be accretive.
QUESTIONS?
Ten Rules of Value Investing
VALUE INVESTING FORUM – MAY 28, 2008
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