INDIA ECONOMIC SUMMIT 2010

14 NOVEMBER 2010

A SNAPSHOT OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY

INDIA MOVES AT FULL THROTTLE
The recovery has taken firm root in 2010-11, despite macroeconomic concerns
[ FINANCIAL SECTOR & MARKETS: SENTIMENTS BULLISH] ]
IT HAS LARGELY BEEN ONE-WAY TRAFFIC ON THE BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE, BUT IN RECENT WEEKS THERE HAVE BEEN CONCERNS OVER THE HIGH LEVEL OF FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT INFLOWS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE RUPEE SENSEX
RISING GRAPH DRIVEN MAINLY BY FOREIGN INVESTORS
22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 9901.99 April 1, 2009 November 12, 2010 20156.89

[ INFRASTRUCTURE: ] CAPACITY CONCERNS]
THERE ARE SIGNS OF BOTTLENECKS EMERGING IN CERTAIN SECTORS STEEL OUTPUT CEMENT OUTPUT
In mn tonne
29.2 30.6

In mn tonne
96.88 101.21

Apr-Sep 2009
% CHANGE

Apr-Sep 2010

Apr-Sep 2009
% CHANGE

Apr-Sep 2010

4.79

4.47

CRUDE OIL
In mn tonne
Apr-Aug 2009-10 Apr-Aug, 2010-11
78.04 90.11

TELECOM
SUBSCRIBERS (In mn)
WIRELINE WIRELESS 494.07 456.74 37.33 Aug 2009 35.77 Aug 2010 706.37 670.60

Production Processing
% CHG

16.60

18.30

10.22

15.47

WIRELINE WIRELESS TOTAL % CHG -4.18 46.82 42.97

PORT TRAFFIC
In million tonne
267.79 271.29

AIR TRAFFIC
PASSENGERS (In mn)
46.63

BANK CREDIT, DEPOSIT GROWTH IN % YOY
24 20 16 12 8 17.32 Credit Apr ‘09 Oct ‘10 22.29 21.19 Deposit 18.70

MONEY SUPPLY
GROWTH IN % YOY
22 20 21.20 18 16 14 17.10

CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE
RUPEE/DOLLAR (Inverted scale)
42 44.83 44 46 100 48 50 90 94.26 Apr ‘09 Sep ‘10 110

PORTFOLIO FLOWS
NET FII INVESTMENT (` Crore)
Equity 112303.40 Debt 19060.20 87320.06 12206.39 75113.67 93243.20 111.73

SIX-CURRENCY INDEX
120

MUTUAL FUND
AAUM (` Crore)
Equity Debt 742100.88 713281.23 413717 418001

38.86

169887 Apr -Oct 2009
EQUITY % CHG 24.14 Source: SEBI

185484 Sep 2010
DEBT TOTAL 1.04 -3.88

Apr-Sep 2009

Apr-Sep 2010

Apr-Sep 2009
% CHANGE Source: AAI

Apr-Sep 2010

Apr ‘09

Oct ‘10

50.35 52 Apr ‘09

Nov ‘12

*Provisional. Data since Jan 2010 *6-Currency Trade Based Weights *Base: 2008-09 (April-March) =100 Source: RBI

Apr -Oct 2010
DEBT TOTAL 56.15 28.61

Sep 2009
EQUITY % CHG 9.18 Source: AMFI

% CHANGE 1.23 Source: Indian Ports Association

19.9

RAILWAY TRAFFIC
FREIGHT (In Million Tonne)
42.8 43.8

PASSENGERS (In mn)
3.68 3.90

[ SECTORAL VIEW: ALL-ROUND GAINS] ]
THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR, INDUSTRY AND SERVICES ARE REGISTERING HEALTHY GROWTH THOUGH THERE ARE EXPECTATIONS OF DECELERATION IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE CURRENT FINANCIAL YEAR INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT FARM VIEW TRADE FLOWS FOREIGN TOURIST FLOWS AUTO SALES
ARRIVALS
* in million

FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS
2.27
* in million dollars

DOMESTIC
APR-OCT 2009 2010
% CHG

277.75 16.98 324.91

76.06

1,017,836 1,359,510

5,220,399

75.91 5.93 80.41 99.54 9.14 108.64 4.30 39.53 Pulses 6.00 Nine 15.66 10.28 oilseeds 17.27 23.94 Cotton* 33.50 39.93

114.57

101.66

38.51

37.77
Comm. 263,963 Vehicles 363,676

15 12 9 6 3

67.34

33.57

6,754,133

4,940

18

169

2.10

6,154

29.38

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (In mn tonne) PRODUCTION (Growth in %) 2009-10 (4th adv est)
2009-10 16.50 2010-11 8.20

APRIL-SEPTEMBER
Exports Imports Trade deficit

Apr-Sep 2009

Apr-Sep 2010

Apr-Sep 2009
% CHANGE

Apr-Sep 2010

2010-11 (1st adv est) % GROWTH

% CHANGE Source: Indian Railways

2.3

6.00

COAL PRODUCTION
In million tonne
193.3 194.9

POWER GENERATION
In bn units
Apr-Sep 2009 Apr-Sep 2010 383 397

Passenger Vehicles

TwoWheelers

2009

2010 Apr-Sep 2009
% CHANGE

Rice

Cereals

Sugarcane

Apr-Sep 2009
% GROWTH

Apr-Sep 2010

Apr-Sep 2009
% GROWTH

Apr-Sep 2010

4.40 1.13

May Jun

Jul Aug Sep

Apr

8.10

24.6

0

% CHG

EXPORT IMPORT TRADE DEFICIT 33.65 47.51 74.86

Source: Ministry of Tourism

Source: Ministry of Tourism

(Cars, UVs & MPVs); Source: SIAM

*in million bales

Value in $ bn Source: Commerce dept

Apr-Sep 2010

41.4 41.4 Generation Power Deficit

0.9

[ MACROECONOMY: FUNDAMENTALS SHOW GROWTH DYNAMICS] ]
THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY HAS HELPED IMPROVE THE FISCAL SITUATION BUT IT HAS RAISED CONCERNS FOR POLICY MAKERS WHEN IT COMES TO MANAGING THE EXTERNAL SECTOR AND INFLATION GDP GROWTH TAX COLLECTIONS FDI INFLOW CURRENT ACCOUNT
In $ bn
13.56

DEFICIT IN APR-JUN ($ bn)
13.73

In %
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Mining and quarrying 1.9 2.8 3.8 6.6 6.6 7.5 12.2 11.8 2009-10 Q1 2010-11 Q1 8.2 8.9 12.4

In ` cr

EXPENDITURE
AMOUNT In ` cr
537,977

FISCAL DEFICIT
In ` cr
197,775

INFLATION
WPI-BASED In %
12 10

8.89

Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and water supply 4.45 Construction Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication Financial, Real estate and other services Community, Social and personal services Overall
Source: Ministry of Statistics

Direct Taxes Indirect Taxes 332,444 150,686 256,978 104,353 152,625 181,758 448,848

133,252

8 6 4 2 0.9

8.62

4.6

5.5

Apr-Aug 2009
% CHANGE Source: RBI

Apr-Aug 2010

2009
% CHANGE Source: Bloomberg

2010

6

8 7.6 6.7 8.8

Apr -Sep 2009

Apr -Sep 2010

0 Apr -Sep 2009
% CHANGE

-34.44

-34.44

DIRECT INDIRECT TOTAL % CHG 19.09 44.4 29.36 Source: Ministry of Finance

Apr -Sep 2010

Apr -Sep 2009
% CHANGE

Apr -Sep 2010

-2

19.86

-32.62

Apr 2010

Sep 2010

Source: Controller General of Accounts

Source: DIPP

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