ID:.cgrie.Eii:aml, ~p~ p!!,~~(l!~, Q·~m.POllI3D,ts 'Df ,thie p~t:!.

g:e POUD,ts of'

t'be, ~Tt"iome .... 'n,..:i :",~"",~",~"""", ~..j~",~".;i,ih. .. ':''''''''''''' (:' ... , .. j m."""", ""'':fiSU'" rI-'r,~~,.I;~ 5:." +:It;:; .,~:~;::"" ... ~ ... ~~~~~ ~""'J ... !..I~,..~Ii_Ij'll.';:"" W~tll';"lbl".ll~J"'_:!!'I.iI~_II~ ,~1IIi ~~i.J~ '!.r"r." • ~~ l!.-J.J~!iI!=;I ~:_11i "'~'~T ~L.."'..J.'

'!:!r: aiIII~lcil:~' 'too ,to t!lric _m:BiJM£lill. 'Gf' "~b(Joo., !Z:l1!o!!mi!f:~eiii,t :profiles" f,D'l' t,e3,e.., ~iO:I!i ~cel:VteJ' and, :rer:~Eer,i'4ib(iZ' '(io'Wll!er,alhi:p,. lilf ~~,tr;;!.l 'be:~;~~f:lg ,1i1ffl~m, U!Jflite~, :and, :fiilf: ,Il ,m.e:!.Suoo 0'1' ,rjwelli!i!L:g UIli~t "Y'i?-w(\t''Q"W\d~ng'. The b!B~ !!'4~t'e, :illtanrl.B.'l'.al~ '~odcl~~'ta C)if :re:gr,~tO!l1!, C!I~ ,11;, ciepe:namn,t va.rlBJ.bte: 'ijpO,n ,the 'pro;no!}rtkl~, ,01 :~w:1ti!J1Ii,~, :i!iii. t:ho~ ,cl~e~; ~r ttl:e 'mc~al'....iil!al i;n~Qm-e fl.'D,d, eI:h.le~~'

~ F ~

"tiG~, d.i.:;:tri,b!lf~l.Q;il~., Th~ ~m'eMU!~1 rt.M irE;i]!I;tii:'VI3 ~ntliibllt~O:D! of f:B.cmiili~, :~iD.

tl!i.t::lle: ~"BI to th!!i I[lv!!lr",a]~, p~~' I~Dit :!i:!i.'bjit'.jj;t.i,(!~, of the U,'!;p!!Ud,eiiii,t )':e.ri ... a'b~ in. l'h~ tr,tw~. ''I'be, coo.mC'~e.n.~ 'W~re !Ij~~~:!L'~d, bY' 'u.dwI~,uiBEi d~ veloped ]D, ttJD.-e :firSt, ~rti{jil!i. of th{,\ :pa~~ f. e:stimi:\'bc~0(i!L 'by' <ihi.~e~ :r.~gl:'e~, Biil~ m.et'bo~ Woi)ldrl, 'h~''Ve bil'!el~, ]m,pa!lkrifbll3 :~.ul!iti ,jJ1 :mul,tll;IDliline:mt;y" ThE! 6:Mpi!ti-ed irC:jul'mi, i&'~ :~D, ,l!iljii~~um'tJuil1 !i.1i.g~eem.&nt, 'w,~t:h :find!n'i9i f'~(ID;i, [\e,~~.®:DI!i;[if the ,d:i;i,~~~'t v.a-ri:!lib~ UpeD, t1tll~:; liiIIGiL'il va'IJjjj:j {!~ ~noom~ s,n..J iP....1H "'''il" ~.. ..., ... ;1 ~",...;,,,, iII,"'I!',"',,,,,,,,,, L"'I.,,:;;, ;!I1""~,;bi"'ti ..... l ,dBV~£eE a;n;r1oil;.Aci: till be

.~~l u~l-Af~'~ .. , :-:-li_~JI.I, 1....u..~_1IIi -~""""'J,~ .. ~n~ u~'~w~ .... w~~ ~ ••• w u w ""r·r~'. .

UWtll in cx,p'lo;rafio<ry ~rn:wiri~l :r~n)!Ii"

~~~X;::~:~:~~~i1!~:;~;~:::'osn~~~~~~':~~;~:~: d~~i::;\'~~~i~:::~'

. ~ ~~ .

:iP!'joor,r~;I:~;Iti~~ l)ei'ti'!."eell variBobi~s i!1I'~' ]~ik:~:ng~ it is '0ften []JeueB~~ZY to uoo a p'le~

timlrn!;r "S' 1 f. ·d' ." ,"', .... ,,,,,,,", "~~" . .j;. ," .;.~ "" ';'~t"·" ~ .," t 1.1. ~,t r.~ . '·0 ' 1\..."., 'oIi,.,~ ,,'I...~ r. .. "" , " ur ."y [". ~,P e >GiL . a~ lLA>! ,IHl.ggeiih. m v;:; I' pre !.loll; " lOD . \[~ .. ,iYla.y U"!:!' iPU,,-,, '!iii) "'\I;~ ~S<"

in, [a'tie!' 3ttlidi~. Th;kl Is ,,"" .... ~; ~"~""~~'~ .. ~ ".·""]·;·~:~·t" ..... ,,"".: :0:'00)1, .... t'YtvlIo:I~dl "'~ di.esmin.' rti''W'€.\

~.~ , .. ~ "~ ,9 II)U:e ,POOIUiLe.'Dll, UJ, exp em '! .. M,Y ~ G!'1 ., .. ,it-'".it" .... ~ ~~ ,",v ~ ~. 'If'. " .

,Ij[" ,I(:a~eot. ~sea;l\eh. :[3 ='~ 21-55]" ~t ,~~- '~~~e~rl:t\!i"~,'~ 'Fiil'i"Pf,.]Ili.>OOl.t to areas of

"_l; - ..• _ .• , .. ~ ,p,.,... • .. ,~1. ,iItil ,P .... <1 • ~~ ~~ ,I?""""'''' ~ - "." ""

lecof.lJ(tm:~§ :mnrke:tini:l", aad 'busr~f,S lef.ea~'h at t~ ''-'~Si},nt Mme.

" "" ~" £I1..,o]·~,·1i ,,~.~,,~ ... ~,', ~ ,I!""""'·· ~"

This: [lape.r' e1;;plo:~ s:qM~ (!If ]Mm,d:an~'~ [7'] 'id~QS f::Or atlUlly,~i'!ll;g~ the ,relat&o]1 'bet\veettt a"' depel1L.d.~t~ ~Q,rlfipb]e ;M a ~~~ qf' 'L~~'~~~d~t variab:i~ 'itlle['t '~li-e ]s;t~ 3'rel ~nioill, ne~y ~iJl£H~~,~ahl~, 'to ·~)tfj,\tlda;['d sjt~t~ioo'[ 'tre6;tmen,t. He 'ten~Br 'ti,ve~~(' ,expanded on SQ~ of' s.~~',~ U~] M$uilts by obta.'miing t'lte :~lr.i,fici:pa[ ,eo:m.~eI1tid, of fl., ~t of a,ti!mda;rd'i~d €tli:rlIlans.to;!'V' v~!bres" ~1ii[~1[]aMng ,tooirr'

, ltl' .'$ L

:reg~~w!), n:pOfi a. depeind,@'nt 'v,~abl~j' ;~!t'I!d. p;ltQj~tm.g, ,the l'eawtlng pa'r,SfIDe!w!t\'S, 'hack lDiloo' tlu~, te:r:tfi.iS af the: ori.gi!llJ~ v~Iiak:s. In. d18'OUJSBJng 'itJ'hiSJ ~pr:l'Oae'hf ~ ,E.dates~

The ,Mm '0]: tRi.s, :paper' is '00, aX8;.:frnhle h~ s;liIg:l!;~'rt1.Q,n by p'wlii[]J.g 'tog~Eit" ,the rn~Q:r: ,~lgeb:r.B;[,e, '[',€'SUIts, nooded. '£0:'" leQJ'fl;hi'll'in~ regressluJ1I. aind. prh~dpaJ! ,wrny pon~,ts ana]pis~ a.ttem.ptmg to, m.a:!'~~ ~lne, ,oomooi1wl {:(("'t:_f;~.b'l,:d;i'ilnEl' ,tID, the Bmum~l Ioac\_bifnery,f iI1IIJd, trying -out the 'iresl..dtirLg; t.e (}'hniqWl s, upo:n, a" :set of'

--- - 'I' __ •• • • - _ - I

'.' Tile oo;I!:l~h~.1:~ 14"~ thl! ,!tud,1 ~ i!!MIdi.lD~l!!ii I!iiii 'ihe ,[eM: :;mJ9t) (j~lJ'lt~ ~'QI!!~ iii"~ Sti!r.iif~ TIIkI,~r,-, ,~IQ' C~U'lp'uil.:i'ti'lllll C~f;@'· 'm~ !:.b: ~~:'" " ~ti:! 1J:ii.!.~ iio... 'tlirj, ~M.r '!.Ii~ N' .. ttm.l ~ :f"ml.ti.d!.t~l:i,

.a -_ .. ;_',""_--,"~., '."." ~I!l .. ~lEJ,~,., __ [IoI'n"J. _ ., _.o .. __ .. J •• "

iJ.!Ut. ~~ ,Naf"~~'it

~AI ~

·'j d-.F.· ''E\,. " '. '1'· .~.",.,. , .. ····d ..JI to . li-_;' ,~,,,, . .o"L."",] '··'·t·'t-.. ,Ji,!h". ,t ..... ~~ oompilli-

ir'i~;(h '. ~1,Oa. • .ElImp:!lrliIl}8i ,OO;::l;.J!_J,SlS m .n-oo )~I!A! .', . ~gI!D!, ....... ~W, w,~ iJijl, 'LQ ~ "I~ , '.'. . '.

oo'ood jnte:rpretatroFi problems ,tll'~ng when '~he rl1e:UtOO~ ,flf1"e SI:pplied,

~rhel ost11ld:y eocarnJjn~ the :re]mfcJ:O[lJ3 of "the :rn.c~d,e'ilee Qi$ t~l(l)vl.$i.Q]ii and :r,ef'r,ige~ ... \""", ""'W~~"'r!';hi'lfil .."ti .. ···t.=_'11 '1; .. , . ,.F.:, ." ':'" '. '.':'" ":" .'·1 .."ti '" oo.J't..Jlition of m"eFt:ruwdii"l"'" in

~"',' v.. ~~~,t,'l' v,l, ven. FaJj, rlea ~1I!IJ!l;, 'lJE3ge,~ ally, 'V,~, Q ..... I!A!... . .U\~,

d>1l',"'].~'i!n"" " ,j,t= ,"l:':,;L ' ·)1 ,:··f· .il, .' ·~t·,,_.ii 1b:=~~ '~ ............ ; '" "'n;.!! ad ,u"'rutlon. vM,uabl!e:s. Tie

"""" il~~ · !'.c'~m W l<[!l se .... 0: ,,""'en. ,r IoW"ee ]"",,,,,,,~n-:; ""~,otU "'.~ ~"'}.... .. ..

,~atJl.\ :pertaif~ '00 census tracts im Mte eH,:r af C.hitagQ'l as otr JIl9'~I", Percentage 'If'I....,j]!'Ii~'" in ~;~"'" '':""1'.'"'' ·:h,""~' dis ... ·., 'ik.,,' ~t ... ~ f>": " .... ""','-; .... "" .. nd ediill!eR"tio,iIl we,re ussd ,as.

y"'~~!!.O'3 '~~OQ """-G",g,.h l ]"'!I.<nllllU~lO!D!1iI ,(iiI" .L11,(:",,1'~'1i> ,... if,;!, .

lindciI'lIl"..nIDr.:nt \!'~ l'i."'b'~",,,,,+ ",Il.",c~ '::-:.: ro·.·, .. _ .~'''f'"..J1 ,', .... pl'~'n ,,:jil'llM -!}:orn:n.ii'jj!e:rltiF.. 'tlle eil::H~},~

~ ... iIi'"' .. ~ .'~ . "'~ .D. ~"''''~, 1.<11"':3 we:re [I~ .... ",,,,1!Ji llllo.!l .' ~ '" .it""... .f:'.~ . . . 1

ponents :reJ!a:t~ ;til} eac~b of 'th.el diBf,p€!tJ!cl!ent y,s.ril~b]l,',ie< g~'V~'Fi. ,EilbCfVe" aJ1~ t'!h~ !r{l:sU!lts pr©,jec1:ed bQ.ck into ·te:rms, Qf' ,the o[',ig.inal ine©':fiI1~ ,m.11d ed'lJ]}catiou 'v,Wm.Jtes thruU;S]I. [n.eU:u~ds, ,t~ be d]sr}~eooclJ in 'th~ flape-l\", el~ool [eQ'Bt-Bq)~~ ~,~s.s.u}rlli ,(Ij£ the de:pendie:!ii.t ''I,\°a rlable s '1,l![If~n t~ !rfte~ o:f' l'!ii.'GOme a..lId ecliuca:tiQ[]J, ead tl.eh: c9~tIJ~iies 'I1re:re oo~.'i}U1~;t~d to provide Qo'~p~ons, f:~'r ,t'lle ~ulb~ ,ol)t«i[]je~ £:rom "the prl:rnl,cJj,paJi ,co.m'fli):r!jj~nts-re,~on an:a1ysi$, T.h~ ~f!;.ir,eefiJ1e:t]:t was ,good, in al~, most all cases, and. it 'W$i$ ~nelurl~clJ t~at ,t'h~ p[,lncipa[ oom.~{m,~ :regresSlQji method. is a" useful Q;pp:m.~l~';'b in, e~rlQ:l'ait©'ry' s,tudk:8 of' oom:pl,e:x. :~ill~tiQns. between ~~le_a.

~., DE;V,&110P'Ml!:o;t'j"F O:iF S'!f.AT,J;{1iT,[C-I.;!I.L ,M.~T,HQ:I;i~

,R6m'6iQ rJj Pn~civaJ a:o-m,p~\g' it naly:gi~. Th{p ~t1fi~th{}dJ o:f p~in~.iral eompo]l.611'~ hss been 'Knll}Wn f'{ii!r' mfllItY' 'y,ea;iI:',:;j and MS· 'been ,djst:U!ssed. :in dHF~[]ilt 'Wa.,Y:!l: hy' 8. 'var.iet\,y OE ,S,ll!I.tJw:r'Sj 00 t'hel prnootnt l'eviacw nesd nat be exteni\1~Vi~" The, reR\der' :iIIi&Y 001"H:iUU A'!ii.d{l~!j :[l ~ :CIt, 1.;1] or E'emda'U [1'j' Oh, i.], ,m;nd. 'too ,l;',~dIeren,C€~ citeclJ '~Mre~[t!, :far Q m.~re e~xNl]:p:J'€Lb6'~'ti~ diseussion a'I the subJeet. T1le :material 10 '~~ [;)r~ntedJ in tJUs. ~~eticm is· ]in::llliwd to th :mat«nij;llihiea] d(l)'¥~lo:PJrlefl't t;~at :is. needed :fo;r undje:rsi.a!OJdl'!ii.g' the ~quel

1"he: ooi€:o"'.tti"·""', .... f '1"11,,""',,: '~l-c:, .( .. " ... , .... '" ;O;""'lv;::j~"" ,',!" l,,,,, 'Find ,!]:; Un,ear, 'tJ'a[[l!sfQr.ma-

~ . '" . ~,,-:; v, .i"',I .. lnOlp3;, C©ID,p0ne:n,l'-", ... MiJ ...,,_'.Q ~'Ji) ,~'" ~.. •.

ti:O,ifi o:f ,!i.\ st;l;t of' .~ 'iral'iates, 0:£ ,x i!twi;o ,!h :flew' tlIet denoted, iby p'~ wt.e[le; t~ :ne-w aet .h!hB: ,Ql!rw,i:n daaimble propedl.ies. Tr..e£iel ,p,Mpe'rtiasl w'huic.:h ,p[i~Jvicl;~ ,the [i~ tiuna..l!e £0.[" U"i'rl;!}" ik'h'" '),,{j '''''''':11:''', ~'1f.' .. ,(1.\ .. "", ....... ;i'I!"~ii'i,o[j,] 'I!;(~'" :0:00:,: (1)', the e\]enw!l]ilt's '0.£ ,1"

" ':! . ":e;, ~~ 'P ~ .1.0'1.\ . er !I~Utll "J~-:; V,U~H""'" oW ''''1 ". -. ,.

are 'll:rn'uorre]"'~'-"d" .. ,'I,~:Il., "'- cl'l}. .• ' "':h .. "', . ,;~:L· •. ,.:.,.:l~ {:"'.'~J.f'iiil'{!loD .. 1itit\' and (":iP e:R\Cll.

. ...w ... "'" ~'U.il~. -:;t\OH! ilJl~. e!' 1rnl '~!Ile i!iam.pJ,v' !;.:",g L "~'.t:!. ... ., J ~ , J

elern..en,t OF p~, J):['Qgl'esaif!l.g frotm Pi, '00 :P~, e:tilli.~ aCiI}QUI'iJ,ts [Qr as. [[lii'u,.c,h of: "the C;©,:iiIj;.bi[lOO var.itL'rnl'ee o:{ the ~IS as ,po~i3ib]e, oo[t~~B~a~t 'I,\ri'ul being Q,rtill-ogo:na,Ji bl ,tl~ ,pmood]ng :pl'iS. 'The :~l,V~f vw]a;b[e~ 'OO(le~:fj)~d to t~ pT,incl.:pal axes of the: ,e]Jipwid :for,(!Iloo '0,,; the B'C:a;tt~r of ,5~m:p,le !(miInt's .in. ,th~ 'HI mrn.e!D!i3.lQuai s[p~e ha,'vj~:~g ,th~ elements of ,X ss :fl., basls, The p[',in'erpm.[ ;eo:m.pa,nen.te, tr.ansfQ]',NI]!hti'on, i~ t.JllllB a. rotatltm from the o [',iguud, ,:l: coordinate 8Y3tem to the !!}y:~t;em de:fimBd by ,the :prin~!paJ ,~J~m"j, of' t.his e]l]pso:id."

,A.a, :is 'Wa1[-kfie'wn~ the pdFie[pal nxes '@F ,the spa 00· ~,pan[too by tcJIre e[eme:tiLu of ,X,Me IiiOt i~:~vltoriMI.t TIO C'h~8, in the sc!1l!@:S lin WMoC[l, 'uhe """a,'r.iaole.s :lni€! m-ea'su:red. In ]JTQ.Ctk:e" ~hi's means ,th!l,\t, !J:, e.~g\1: In the 'unit of:' ,[f~es:.sil,!l"me[],i,~, far !!lVC'[]J ~ne VMi.iabl.c (e,g" a ebMtge f'Ii@'ID :lF1(]ib.eg 'to, lIeefi,) cen -cll.tl!tg,e th~ pntter~. of :p:nntipa1. e(!lru;~tents\" A d' ];!""".,.- • ..,~:c ,.J.' ,;j.'h.' .. ·]-·t- .... ,· 'I.-. ..... ".,f ... "'fi: "~!nifu 0:£ M~ll!~e:l!I!t ~d

.Y'-".' . .•. .~"',,",""'~.fllIIl UJ!, l~ i6 re.m Iv.li Utili .j''''';::.~ '''''.. •

nlMind .... c.l oomJiI'lI©ne!D!,ts ,an'" 11. ,!Zj' -, ,is beond 'fiha SQIl);1¥-' 'il!I:f thls fi.ll.it"fIt)oJ:'. but thel 'p1XIi'b-

,Ii'""'. ,F""'" II;' . . . ~.9Jly.m . - y. . .. . . . ,1:"- ... !:"""it'" ... " , '.

km. 'oaR be sid~,p])ed, if 'U\el ,~!l\.h'LaeS ,are CO;P'llned. 'to the' pd~.cipal:IDXe~ iJif t.he $ 'e1~meDJii\J' as . .st~da'rd'i~d, tlirc&ugh div~Oifi by t.b_e, ;aq,UM"e :[oot~ '01 thellil' :re,.. i$~,tive Su'Ilis 0] IsqlU!.s:.:rea.

'ft, 'Ii';,~ C· '= .LW, ,~,~

~vi\(ling tllat tl~ ,ru'k of Z:iB eq,un), 't:o n (]jl1Jt~ th:a;t .R{I) ~,R(X}h hiJth P sad Z ooll'oo.in n, ro~"$ and :f' ~®,]UJ~~ Wh(H',e T ~ th~, mnnher Q1' obsel'vntiO;n.~ In t'~ '~rn~lek '!tk;a obJective @] t~ pn[]~a1 '~.(]\Pl,1']iQ:~Jl.b 'pl'Q~d1m~ ls to lind M~ j'

= _ Lit' -= .

the n)fn, coofielernl.t nffitdx :for t,~.e tm'msf.,©nnatio:n~ 'W'Ol!'long omy ,froITiJ. a.

knqwl~~m z,

1'''0 see 'h@w M:is ,i!ille;renn:ined!~ 'nfiI~,hrndt[nl:' elj'i!m;tU1~ -~ {]}_. b pJ~ncl Slllbst~t;ldj€l

- . --.iJ-~·-~·!t"""~==,I:-""Y'1.mil. ... ,. ,Y" a ,~- - -.-.- ..

'fi'b_e transpose: of·.its r'i,.,ht·li.LUtd. S[del:~ -

~ '"0

IN:!lFil~ 1l'!h!bt"Z' :~ ,R :i.:o: :If'h'" '~:r:'1 .. m't ... '~'Ii" N~' 'ili~'-~: :rfI'~"'" -: .... ~-~-::'I ~ "'_~;r'i;~-:-. H''''''''''Y''''-: the ,'ri~.:_j: .rI;c.~ ;AI , ... 'L.,A"~'1

_ _ _ __ ~ ~ ~. Q ',,"'tI;m !Uc'>IJI! m.c~.oI'Ii. vI c':I.m:I!!L",lL'c; ~[',:I.'eU!:!Il!ii.1""nEl ~.J..""'.I!.g .. 'Ei' ..:. I'l' D.C!l:U lll~!,j

PF-' ,= D~ ',ih~eh. is; t'l\e varll.]'t(l~ooy.au'iaoo: :mamx: £Q[,' Mle prl-rile!]p.aJ oom.:po!i1e:tu'n~. ISuost.i,tu!ting' 'th'€S'e' results ~U'OO {2:} yl:e]da:'

.. I' ~:111 .... ::r"\ ~g ,~ilJ~' U'~

:i:I',~ / ~f; JIIjfi\ ,~, r ,_ l~' . JlK J~.

ne coefficient m&'trix (.O=~,M~) ]~ 'the l'ny,el'Se' ,~f t:li1e one oi[\~I'M_ai',ily ohta~ned ~[;t tJil,e faemr. analysils ~q)ill.ij,tt.io,ll ,g'7",AP. ,,.4, 'lliiJ 'Mn~d, the ~~rm{iJi:pfjj {ioID_J)Q~nt~l laadimg' ,m.aujx. ~ 1['~'~ eomputed by :rn.n1!~ply.i~~: '~eb '!i)·rt'bORQJ',mal ~~;e;1iiV~ctal" [0'1' R by '~~be Sq,llMt'! :tOOt, ,of :lts :E~nyaluc::i: tLhu-s,.

,A. = (D-~'M!)-:~ :;:::;: MDH. (5)

Oite ad V,B;D,tttge: o:f s~ung tlle pri~¢i])al ,oomp@~~nta, '00 lLI'~],t' ''I7a!t'~:i:\ilOO, is '~.ha.t the elemenss ,of ,A, lmve a nt1tllU'al ,a.nd. u'ooful i.~~,te~re~gJ}~iQiDJ,j: ea~"b ,a,,~ :i~ 'the i~impl1e oo!t',~bJt~OIl of: '~'he i£'h, ,,"'n;riAk witcJit ,th~ jt"ih, oClQ:[iJ]pon.e!D!l. 'Ell11l.:p.irlcal 'W'@'l"k with p:rineipal OOm)Xul.e[l,tf.1, a'~ii.B.'Iys]s 'ibe,gie wltlh th.e eal,eu]llti'i.1fl Q.nd exatJ:n.iru:dJJo]\ ,®'f ,4,

R';f1itr#S:~n' ;on, Prinm:pal (!,(jmtp~'ts'., One r,easO:1a :foT 'tr,@Ili.sfQl',wn,g: :a, ~tc, Q[ 'V,~~'~s, ][!j')w :I;lrir-ilci,pa] {:ompO]len,tEi ~Ei, 00 that tlreh: te'latitm8 ,with yet another v,M',iabl~ rn:ay 00 ~cqil.Q;NJJ :m(Xf;€ eM.ibt. :If: Ute or.iginal :inde~end.en.t y,w1bl,es

(lhe x~s,~ ~ 'ib"trn'hL'I1' ,oo:m: .... "'(I;'r ~i,'h A f'l: e' , ... rr~"'Ii;l,'li.u'~, ,,,,,f~ ~ict' ":I~"'11o!'.':i; ur~ :~ if~oi:i;"'. "~.'lc. -'i.c,,:,"",~,~_ !I..&!Ij~, ~ ,~ _ L"",,~ W ~IO\ v~ ~ vlli.lJ]!:;\IO~, "" ... , ~[ !I!.= .... IC! 01.-:: fi ~"O::9U .IiliIJinTilifl::F.'

o:f pote:mHRJ ,e;x,pla'llOlto-I";y '",,~:r,ia'b:la~~ it ~ay' 00 a.PilJ~'{~pri1:l'tle to s.J:I;mplify ~'hair OOHtp:ie .s:paoo, !by a ttaF.iSf:~r[]ll:a;-)tio:~, to :p;rj~~c:~,]!i\l o()mJii(Jti;(ii~'tls. T~ d~!()eiMd~TIt "'i\'r::iia~b~e] e.a;~. ,them be regresst:d UPQriL '~: ;Jtesu'~.'~m,~ :pri'NL'e~prui '~..QmPQ:t1Leill.'~ m'~~ Uum. 1llptYJh ,the or,igiili.al vt&ria~~s.

The ,pr,bie[pal oorN.i.pan$n.'b tf,~sfo:r,ma.ti~n ,~'fll 001 ·r.egaroedl ]~, 'the ~n:\IDe ~8.n"" iller H any ,oilier' tmnsfo-l",~;;\~iof.i. 'lha'~ ]S used 00' Pf'~:p-.a're "'"8'ria.te~ f,®,;r 'rBg~em~i!Y~,. Gne :r!l.e~ to knoW' UU:l: 'nOOl"it'L,,:,;a,~\rriQI OilY .;a, l.iP1 +c1-!'Qn~f!(r]~'ilI,,j,~i,,'n '!lifl!..,]I, ,~,;a,"l irr~.!:.i!i'IIiQ';:; _ '~n...l.

_. ~ r . Jt"~,~~ ~~ "._,..; -':;-~9~~-~V~="~l!.l~~ ~~~ ~~ l"l='JI!~~'~'-J R~~

'~li'e 'oo~.d'~Jtio:ms :lm 'Whi"Qih ,the]il' U~ :is a.,ppr-Q)prifi;~. Thoi,')' :m.a.DQ'!l" eO!i1.~t~:tion of 'this rs.~ is, 'M:mt ikhe 'pr,hi,c~pai '~o:m.!mne.[JiJh. 'tr;f:!,[lsfor,matcJ.~n, CfllD, be 'V{~Y ll'S(:f~l ~[[!), 0xplondl4).l'Y st"3t.iJs.t~ieal r.eooarum; the paper con,oont.rt&te~, U:POill, ,a, 'iPm[y Indit'he·, l]Ul;t.i.cal and partly aml)i'rieal ,e:K~nl'inati.o,n. m: the propelrtif:~ of :p:r.ind,pal eem:pG!n~fiLk tr,~sfQ:I:'~~a;t'iQ~.

euu]d~ ,gJ} 1. x: T' YeeOOl" o:E' Ob~:e1'v-e:d Wa1!UM :fOCi ,~ s:~[~~e va:t'i~te, W:hk1b ~E!, to be pr.edlt-eood. a'tlid Ro:PMUUy ~,pla]l1-ed h:Y' 't'lloel ,ae:t of n l~,de::pe:fidle:mt vti'ria.b1es een-

iSlldMeclJ ,rulbo"!;"':"',. '\Vr,i,tril1ff' "';!b~'1'!i '[[i~ ... b .. ".. :~~, ,i_ 'Ur~';I._'t.. ii'iIoi:i;,o'II...' elem .uii'ii£ ~.;j!oi!"'i'i ,1: .. ,~:~,~ ~ .. .'!

, , ~ _ 'Iii! _ _ ~.~ ~""!!:!, "', ~= "'!:I'V!II'IJ'= Gill JI~, 'FI' ~,U.IiI, -::91J:u, 0. ":::liL'"::,u,1,i. IllLJ~tuwu.l.zeu

U~b. dJhnsLon, 'by t~ ~pi,7ii~~~t ·v.~aibl~~/ ,~t~'iJ":iJdQrd dt'iV]fi<tio~1 ,th~ ~g~~B~au of y on tr~e ~e.J.'erl. :p'ri.nm~al6(iom:pa!iIl.~ri.i'b ~f: ~ is Mn~t~clJ by

''r:!'; .:..:..... "lp ,+ Ill,

I" ~ ) - ,Ii

whe[ie ;,f' :~s ill v-e.eto,r of. ~gr.ea...'5i(l\t1 (looffi.{=--ioe\~.t'-$~ and ~he ~'Le(me::~.'~ of' ,~~ are, ~'he e.r.OOil' termsin t'ill,e :~~~ion. W""O!'!l"kin~ from t~ ,pr,i.nci,pal Q(),:m:pm~~n;ibs 10ad'ing~ rn.:tl-tr.ix it wCNdirlJ 00, l"iooslih~ to Ca1'C11d~w t~ In X T: ;m;atr-ix F :ill oil'cl!e;l' to n.l'f)l i~e

,p. ~ J;'" ~ , ~ ~ ~ ~.. .. ~- -~. -..~. . - ~ .. = ~~~ .~ ~- ~ = ~~ . ~ ...= .. l'" 'Ii. ~.

,t'be in,:pu,t ]m-'o'D1~tJd!n. foil' {,~} ~

On,rn3] the: vrdill.e~' 01' It :p.Q: kn,o'wn :fo:r ~vel'Y' ob5('~a'tio,~ :in 'th~ :s!l'~:ple,J.' 'th~ parafifi.e'ter~ ,of (6) ~!Ml, be ,est]mnk:dj, 'by oi'diiDJary ]lJ11$thods.

TL..,~ '~~ "'=~ 11 'I 'I . - ,~,. 0 . .Ji ,~ ~ - 0 - ,', .-.) ,', -

, ,~WQI',rr reqlll.l1iw to ,1180 ,m..rn-OO F C!htiL he, eUmin~te~, by' slibsti.hi.tcjJn,~ fl,] :irD!',rfi!'il'

(6} dJ~Jt.e(i;tily ~ as Jd~:u.'nvIiL In, {S.) sud, (9). Ilea-p]),tie tihe 8i.rnpUcl,ty of t'~ sn:UJrt-~u.t~ pir.'OOe(h.n;e~ "t't d~es, :mot seem to be i!JiLi!t'TeltltJJ.y' in, 'u.se::~ the ,standfU'd llJbrary 'rompiJJ,~ ,p-rogm'f:rlS, f'OI" .!ruiin~.i:pru, ,e(lim,pome[]!,ts.l'e,g~on ,B!nruys~ 'wirth wErl.eh t~,

,'111. ;I: l} "1'" <Lt._ ~, - ~h .JI d'+ . .JI·' -,'1. 'j... - 'ii:.._ Tt.-

,a.~,'''''.I10\1' :i8 !L8ntl!.l.liM" '!.Iffie1W!!U::: :':OiIl!g met - oiiJJ - l!SiJilIBaeUi l!~ 'tllioe ,Wist !p~il',B.\:plJ.. -, ".nn::

~ffQrt. sa.'V~clJ b1,1 U~~~~~~' ,the ~hor:t e::ur~ 'be~t):c es :-~,":-- ifi.C;M to .]]" -, '~b ~ ;53'~'~~C ,] ~ :-i ,~ , ~ ~ ... ".~ ,O! ~~~~,.~ ~ ~ ..•.... - ... .,IJ~" B gm .. l. wen, .. eo ... m.p e i3Z€

~,~, ]S l[lifil',~. Th-t~ '~ *1'00 ,e'~fJ! wheJl a .ei!}r!I'IJt1I~ibe; .. is l:~'ilfift used :f(li'= '~'he ealeuls-

Ij.,..;"I;.J " .. Sr" ~.~ ~~ ".~.~. .. ~~~~. . .~~~ .... ~ ... , !!II._ . _. l.tf .. ~ . ~. - ,

£io:ms~ siaee ibr SQ'mp]~ th:fl.,t ,am '000 ]~: to 00' held in {:om me;'~TIory.I' 'th01o:~g rtvemihiJd. r,eqt~:ir,e.s f:~'llr re~fmi,~: ,~d writing o:~tion~ '£Q.T ~Q1;)h. of: ,tk=, ~ va;r:in'to.s, or. eO'Wl:l'!Q[lf;Ufu OW~ a1!~ T 01' ~: ,!l)b~'Ei.ltlQ:Q, ,PIS oppcsed to lust Q\~: sueh

~ .' l, "[r""!"!'" !II

o,pel'fi.tio:m f:,o.r' fiJhe sh~,rt [tiJ.efiho,d" [T~ lu:pUJt-diu~~ild, ope['ati\oml in¥®~'ye ·niLe] ex.pe:i!ld])ttlfte, oJ :relafli,vWy la;r~e ,~ra~oQurn~~, o:E' t~f]}.e on nioidl~ :rn.aohin~s.

~I11..~ .r;,}};"i. ....... , 'ffi o!'io' "tif!....;!1 eon n l"'~, ' .... m :!ICIitl* ... ...]1 in ')""rfu (I .... '", ~ u., ~~ ... ;r.,ii., ~ ill'" ' .... [I"'" s .... ~:I1T,j.,~ ,",,:n,

.. -.lm ~-=~-'V'<~.I.? ~l!i~~!\1~ _v~· ~!PI.I-~-~' ~t; J:~"'-"~ _ ~ ~~~y, ~ ~-_ ~-~ ~=!Ql v,l. !}Jl_1.e. lL'C'.I.IIa.~-=--;t~ ~ l ~fu~I:I,~~,

fo:r {6'h ~S' :g,i~il, 'by' '~q,~~tw:n (8). Su,b~tit.~ti~,:n, of {7} hl'to (8) ~nd Uk 'di[ th~: m]atlOOll, ,FF' -::: I :yi~['d:s ,t'tw, ji'~1l.1l:'9suUj' ~q_"Ua't.:io:m (9);t1.

"y = (FF)=1J(Fyl);

~ := IFIA.' Z~-i' = ,D=':iA," t~: ' ,

i ,!.", -~ "';II"

(,,8)1 (~,)

T~: ]~It 't€=l',fiJ], is 't'he 'veT~tom' of simple ,conela;tio:rnu3 '~twce'n iY ,M1d 'tille, ~~~1. In . .smiJ~a'[' terms ,th.e tte,gIi~iot1i. cUiej],d.ern,fi, o.f y fin the: kth :pri.nci!!p.~ 'OO![A]~Jnei~l't ]H ghl'e:mJ. by

"~j . ~. ~t

Do "E' -+ ,a, = --, ..... 1111'

, ", ~ j

l ... ii.

S,.jbj'ee,t, to aU of' the 'i!JJSilJJRJ restrict](Hl~ 'D,n th.e re,g1ieaalo]]J, enor terms, till.e yrs ~r~ in.d.e:~de[[L'jUy rusb,ilblltedJ normsl va;r"iate~, 'wHih ideflMt;,B'l ~'fitiaJi1,t}es d~l.

The i[],V1~: of tbe p'r~:ood:pal oolli])Q~le~'~ 't~,a.nsfOlI~8!tiQ[l. ia also e~ly eb-

l. .... i, . ..,]1, ii""'i,·~:"""',r [""".',~:"""",;i'1J,,,..,, ... ~ fOl: ,,!','hl!> ,)I'S~ 1"', :~ l"il"i.0O'fllb~ .. ' .. ' ....... 'b~'i;'i'~liL ~l"ilIl1'I;;:;;i<I :ilfO;t<, ''',]~.l'I, .!I't&.~rrt.l'I.:;. ',,~ ~ ~~.!l.eUi_" uiL ~ '!:' l ~W:~_"!(~Q~"" 'Vil l!J~Q l' ,~~ ~ '"' ~.~ !"'~_ . "'" !!IV 'V,,' l!.i~ ~~ ~ '"'~~~~ Ji'V,," !U .~!I:' ~ "'e~''!:'~

Bi.o:~l ooemc[ents, o~' 'Ure o!(',iginnl vnri~;bl~ by ,~:p:plying ,tl@ ~'[[]1J.e tr,nalsio-rma;tiQn

,t":'.b ... ,." , .. ,..,'b"'ki~ :iI:i" bsek .,""': Z:': lLi~IU 1lift_1\.~ l('" 11J.!........ ~ = I

fJ':! l n" 'IAi>;!!P ~'fI

,,. ::::;::;: r ,,ic' = ",1'.' '. .=, :. "l'" := ~ Li/,e

rU)

iSl.ince 'tIlihe le~,Mlq,Ua.l·E:Hl sa,Eurtio:ns fi0[" t~ :last ,two ~qr,l]~itfu~ and], tJ :m.us;,l;· ~ 'Uifliq,U'!':i'J 'thel v'ae.ID;r (1']" l:~ta c·oe£i1;Jienb :for the regressmrn of '!g 0,]1 the :Z~$ is eq,ual '00 'the :f9.1k!'wing;:~:

:L '!B~).ri'i:WiIi t!!!o} i:<.iIii, ,!:t", tI"'!rIi!::~ ;:;"1"" iI"i.y~" '\'~1i,'4 ,q;, '~~f.Qr! :Ii~ii!. '1',I~1;i~(!' "'(!~lm1Jnll!li;i.ii)~" [H,,,, 'lIl!iod! im!~, ,~' '1;I~~1 !XI, ~J~ 1I~i.]:Hli. d~li:oMlfll~;(J~ ~b@, ¢((r.~~"'~1li :[(I!lI!triJ: .'~{i!Jl, W'W!:!I", :~t, ~ ~t~, T.li,Q ~i!ll ~.~ tbi;; 'I~ Ij.f ~lI!iiiilii.l~ d'fti~fl 'boo ~,Ij~~~" '~~~ Zlf ,Imi;i!, 1'::J:iI!~

It m~y 'be: noted in ~[lg that the 't1'.~o:r,[]}8t:1it!n :from. 'v,B:l'iah~eB 'to, :iPir.iIlCi:paJi !l}otn:pO'jie1fita~ tihe re,~on ,CIt it o in, the p:riiOJ,~iPi\'I, eO.f]j,por~len,h!., ar~ld, tl!h.e hr~i\~ ~rai[~~:O'l"mai~i(1(~ of th_£ itlegr;essl0n, cCleITie4-etil.tH ibae~k i~!~i!) 'tib® z [d,()·w,ain, yielrl~ ~h.e i[]~-ual ~ea."9H~rm:\teH oo]ut~Dn :fOir the. beta e~ef~ici~lJlts· of :ril3.gl:'a~iCln ':

Ai '~

"( lliiiiiI ;t;;J. ~', 'Z:iIiIJ

'l'hel :!~t q~~n'tJ~y is· ~h~ cl~ieal Ie;a,st-sqJ.~s:.:res i9q~.a'tiO\~ for oot'-B.

Tb~ '!,ra;r~'~ee-oo'V,w~oo ~trb: :fQ~ the ~t~l ca~'il. be ~..a.leilJl[at(:d" !providedJ. ·t'hat 'the ,sarm:ple p![',hte.i:pal ~.o~,npo:n,1,'){nts am view,oo ss ~d~oor:rn;ln.etd! aumma.ry vari-,

;i:j;,;I.~i;i, ~Jl1:;;:;;rI'I' .'I;:b'~n ;i:j;;6 ,c",iol",Ino[j;':"~~' ,,,,fr ""~o"'i~Pli':l ,"'!~-:(!'ru)I'~~r'r"', ;rf '''-bPI und .... ~,trin~ 'hf1!.lfi1i1]O"" ntc:;a~ iIO 9WiI"",... II!LJ!l:I: O!'Z' e~ Ii _Atc::"' .... :I; I!.<.,....,~ "''_''~~,t,',,_.n=~~M iIO 1 ~1L' "~~!I.-!!.,,;r ~ e ,F'''<~-'''' !i'Ir

tioo, Tbe:r!L the ele:-f!lle:tl'M of' AV--,jJ, Me kMW~ eoo(OO]e:i.e1'l.'t.B ~n ethe, li~~~' :r;e,l~tio:~ ]inl1jng the bet;l~ to the ,ga'~J'na~, whk-h in, t'l!n'.r1 are .bil.de.peI'!Id:mt'My tlistdJbu.teclJ

,- 'n"l',"~ ~~', '" -bll~ =~.~'I... ~'" ' 'U'li --u i'iF'Il..-- , m· yO.I.ir:I:. var]f4L .~~ Wl"'H :~e:I:'O ~B8~. ill. .'J,~"

(13)

JJl Qf theBe ,gl~iB.fi.Htiea a;lIe eHilv' ~lfJjjla.ted on ,81 ~G'lll,pUitM O'MtUe ,tbe ~®ad'iitl!gs 'mrue.!I.1ri'"" :a;ncl! ooritle]a'~~.0n eoern,e~er'~~ ,fj:.]"t Oli" 'the] dl:linEmidefit an,1[] i"t11(k.lfie-nclJ~fut

, , ,~ , ~ , ,\ - ~" . " ,1 .. ,,1 - e "" w" , --~--~ ~~~,~. ,~~ ,~~,~.-~~,

'";o;a, .... iic;.'jI,.'!l~.::!, Q'II'!.i"I. :kn;Al~.~rrtJ-,

·!I'!D_I.JI~-~re~ ~~~-., ~!'f!'r~'I

D,",~'"~'",,,, .,,;' ,~:_a; _ _., p-~:-::"","";otlIII~ ,i"'i""''''''''''ill'''~ ~,~ .... ,DfflW"3.~""",", p. -,~,..~, ... ~",,,,.; '-U-,,,,,,,...,:t' 'f'Le-

1-' !I! '~'J:~""-~ ~~~-~ ~J ilf~, • .- ~~~r~-~ ~ ~T.P.~~_I:ff.~"~~ J!11l","-~',. [~~~L!.';r"~ " ~'D.U!~~r. ~OI ',: ~~ '?:J~ IlI_U··

p~edu.xes, ,dlh::e"~~d abqv~ WO'~'ld h.a;rdILy 00· [IJ~OO~S~ when. the 'b~ta. veetor eould be, eSjti:tiJ.1~kd ~e!t'[y by ,cl~'cal m.n,n.QdJs. At letlli5.t two Bit'ilia,tioA'(:; ariw" h~)"i .. revBr ~ ][JJ, wErl.ch. qr,dJln.ary :m.u[tJ.v~~~ :["~gr.egsJ_io[IJ, is neff.; a:p:pooprn:d;e: ~ (i2 wh-a~ -th~ ~~de[tll~nclW1t '~1U,iabl?S ~,~ ~~lJJmear witch o:n~ a[IJ.Qthe!r'~ JiL1n'k1n.g invemoln oj' 'th~ 'cQ,~h.itiQ'!DJ, matrix: ]m.po.s.")tbl~ antd! ,t'he ~Ie;CiJ.1ents of tJeba. ]n,cl!etermi~ nak~, antd! (iii) 'W:h.~liij beC!'llU~ ,@f 'big'h, (but Rot e©'nl'p~ete) rt!QUiiltea.rr:jlty orr. :f«r: f,j tl,]"tI; 13.1 other reaaen, ],~. ]13. de~ble to eo:l]Ei:Pae tche ]ndJe:peiflderL0t 'ij,tj,'I,',iaNe s,pa.ee by de-

'Ii ~"~>, ~"--:,r.;.lfJ ""'!~ '_M!~ '11 ... :tMr.~ .. ~;~ ~ 1 f! ... ~~ .... it"iI~iifi;;:;;~ ;""i;i .:!'M-.i'i!i~"'1 .""l. ..... 1 '~OfIo'iQi;'lil.l;An :1¥'-];[I,tit1ln~hl;n~ Thi} ,L6w..m:_g, [ill\:: V.l, .I~ .• .v .• ,'!:; _t-'\IJ J..I.[I.""""lL",a: ""._...I~,.lt"'v..,19H[l.i!'.l .hv.lu [l.i:LI."" ,.,,!:,~-"OOQQ!I!U'~ ~ ~""'~~ ~-- - ." -ill-. _ _

<L. '""': ",,",m,,, -:;~'I] :L..:u "':-"ii'l"i;,)]=!I:'A,)] '~iI'fI-"i'~':"'.':~~~ 'kA~o'!I w-

li'li'!'v ""~'" 'W 11 ~ lIJIoo '!AiI~<:!~~~ ~ ~w""'" A~iLY Utl I,.!I ~~ •

I("!)I rW.]JI\~;;:;o[j,~ ,;'''''',~ ~f~TI:..JII!i.'~-i. ''P'~'~a'b'I~~ _ ~ii!J"o:iI"·-""f"""~,_. it has been ,~1llned. fibt

:1 'Lr~ ~1lN ,~_.I."'t'l,Mj.t;' .... ~IU...,.=" ""GiL"''''''!.!', OV9.\; "'~ .... YIJ.' "..-jI!,OO) _ ~ . __ ~ .• ~ _ _ __

'tJl....e l',~r~dk: of ,Z is eq'~al '00 ~,r tlw ~umoo:r {((f :inrle,iPe>~ik::r!.t v,a;r,iabl~s. C~n:5rcl.er now ,"'_'1>;,..:.; ;'ld'''--'''j W"~l"" ,;j, b.±I1 '1I'.I"ii~';:;, w.~. d'~ sub i~-.lfJ~" ~~"". ;A'n;~, ;AIr )"'O.i'iI![',", Ilnear :oo3b'lim.tro-Iliil!i redue-

Ww ~ ww ~'-..; ~,~ ~v. [l.vW ~ v], ~J O~~ ~~. ,l~'_'!U 100 '_L-~IV,J 'V~ =wJUw ~"" __ ~. w w

;~~ll"l': ~"'}i;i ;tffi;r.~'I":, , ..... ~ ,<.ti, i"if"'().-.lfJ "r,;~d,(oc-;~;;"ioi'II'~ 'rI'I~c(j'~~.::!d~n '~l'l~t-ll':1ln :;s: :iIii&.t~r,wna,te under

c~i[~a:> Jill!,", ... rill'11r.. ~ ,f\f.I,' ""'- ~,.,,, j, . .liloo ""~~~r,:.oQil ,iL'ILl:l!!i~"ILl~V= ,"-""L" .,.. ~.~ ..:; _. ~_ ~ _ _. ~ ~

'tJl~· ooi~d~'ti~-ns h'U~ b . u~i~ ~~ 'I1'I:rinc-,j(~.al {fo~,nn.n(~,1ls, r[~il'Ms::!i\Ml 'te.ahn].n;ue, :[,t iEl:

- . ,=".~ .!.' -~ .. " - y ... g ,£1= .. ,[ .. ~ ... m,£1"'~~ ~~ ~"G.'.", - - . ";!!, -,

:~b].~ to ~tcJJ.~a'w tcJu: :ps,[',~$'kroS of :~g~s.siQ!DJ, upon tche :p:i'O:le61iiu'fI~ ~f 'th.e Qri,ginal vnrl~b]~s in.to ~, m-:fl~tc, ,~f the 's~~~ Er. S,P~Ul'[led 'by t:h-el ~O'ws o.f Z,:ii

n..:: . ,~L_ - ~, ~_, - t'" - - - ,;. - J. 'il.""" ~, ,~~ . ~~ -- ~ 'i-..-.~-~I! ~ .. '. r.~~' "']j !r.l!V~ len' I 't'hrut ",,:u:'i.r,~1ii L"lU:: ra[l1!i" all b~ 'm ]S WI]:: ,IiL1!1lX.ID1U!.rn, [lJumU'l:::F '[i\L I'tO,I!L.:..'le:OO e~ge-~ ~ : ,!;!IJ! _"~ __ ~ _ ~'

,-- ~, ,- u, __ . - . ,01. .... .eted i~' -, <L lk,~ ,-: ~ - - -~''-'.'L."~, " ~ .jl.- .\ 1· 'h"~~~' ,A ". ,rn~' ~~riJS, no ltf.iitv;S hut can '-"C. eXu,ij"-Z'K;. !I1O'ID!, W.lLe CO.l'reiJ.:t:l;l",w,m :mB:oa:.[',[l.K. "~J' a 00=",~~. _ _,~ __ ,. '. _

f -:rblil ilttu.a~iii ,m&1/ .tii~ ib!; :Iui.~ rlzy ~hijttiC: 'Iil!.i! ,.;j~t :f.ti,c~li:m m~'~ wL~l~ 'PDll'-.:mi;l~' ,I!ILI!b,:j'~~ ill! 'ri'i! X'rii ,il~r: OOl'iiiir;iIIU-ii.;5ii ~,j'iitI~. ie, Jiolliilii-wiii 0011

and.

{Ol} =. lADt

ShliCB all the '['ow elements hi! ,~ ~ive['JJ, do],umn of A. are :multi.pH.edl. by th~ sam~ diagonal·e:Lem,en.t af .D~·j' it is a~pa-re,tiLt '~'h&t ·th.e ro1\~ of: A.~ ta.~.ernli. by ·~'he:mBe1.ves~ are Hl~OO'dy' d;B~[lrle:ii·t. Fmbe:t.m,(fre~. tJ],e oeoomcdend~ de:ti·i'fL'h.g (he dependence 3~ Wile ~flJ.'Hte M tbose, ,d!elirun.g it f·Il[' the :[\U·ws of Z. Cany U~lJg '~h~~)'lLIgb tide. sa mel prO~~ijJrel,~ eq,iiJl&tion. (1.2) is p:rern:u],£1:pUed by 1 'to obtaln:

~,6 IiIi (lA.).D-·:"l iDl (0) .v--,j,,:( ,.. (0). (lil)

Thus, ,th~: n betas ootcJj~awd ~y ~'h® pri~~i.])Ql], !!".iQm.po:n~fi.i.t6I-l'C~ssiQ:n 'p:l'Q~d~ lie In the !ffl;me !Suhsp:a:.c~ of',~ a's did. f,]m ,o,rl\g]~ ~p.~., :Exi!liGt'ly the :same I"~,~ hold :fo:r the ib·et~.j' y:e;cianu-co'vnrliEmce :rnJe.trlrx~, w:h[c!ll is QbtM[1ed accarding, to ,eq,llittiHo:n. {no"

Tb~ c.~'re~di--'-'· --jll'li"UJrrtiii,a,"t:l'Im ,d! _ -H .. -t~h '~he redii!leUil)!'l o:f' ,th'E!' nlllu11'be,1' of' oom~,

,. p:... . mg. iP ....... ~,..Ef . eEL. v.; L . . . . . "~~.= . = ._~ .. _.=.= . ~

panoen.h, used ~n, '& pr:1iue.i.pa]. ,[!Qmpo:rijiB,u.t8, reg~~.iQ;lI. anaJlysis ·to'[ ,ca:~Sl whfH'e eiXtre:me mUlltioolJinea1i~y :haa, red'l!tm~d the :[',aont af: ,the data ms'tvil'( f):Om :no to 'm; Th~ a:mo~.iIlI.b to ,a, ,p,(QOOtHi af:; (a) '~r,~nHtO'!:'fHl!ng ,the sam,:p]e varis::tes, 10 nrin .. ii:ifiI;zj_'~ ;(>f;,nrr'ifflil'i·I!iIH'"~· a'n,"]1 i'l"Oitn {,'b"1 d." """"'P'~l!fIJ(Jt 'Nll!i; ~.'~·m AI'!I,m'rVlu.i'iI~'~'1;'l ,,j;:[b° "'_ f'oi~

~~ ~ll~~ 1L.I'I..?-=~,IE-"I.'!'~_IIIM'~'l,iE ~ .. =~ !liJjfu~~ ".}. _;I; ~ _ ,~-~e l~ ~.. .. ~ ,I?""~ ~ ~~ llil. -~~ l."""l!rfl- -~

'00' aeOO11J[iJ1j, f:O'M ~ny 00:' ,the va~u,c® of' the ,mi,gi~l VQrbdes. (The @;Qm:pon@.(~lI:t's 'that ,a.re dropped :h:ay~, ~m ei:gJmvecio:rs,} This BirmpHnce.Hon ,o:f tche &tm.p]e spaee o:f the Xi~ i~, req),tlJl:red, £0:[" t~ ,sti'bsequ'e1i1f. regres£ii(Y]1o

(Ii) Deletio:n of Comp~memts. The possib:iliil~y. ,OF Bt(n,pl:llf;'yi~g; ~'be ~-sil;mp]e ,sp3t:!e tlU-o~h, ,r1e]etioi1 Dr.' e-()m.po]u:miJ.t~ 'e:K~ts e.vert wile:n. '~he l".a.n'k >0t the ,~,ta ~trlx is ,eqUJa1J to 'R,~ sl!nc.e: one or more ·:t\Wn~-et'Q [t)rl_:-~d:p,a'[ oo,m:pone:l];h~ ~Y' be ,dro:ppedJ from, ,the ~reg~~BBiQiIl,,, :U ]s ,dw,a!bi.e to ,exU'ii:rre ·~'he elll:ecil'$ of' dJrQiPpi~__l(g OOi'ill,Pfifie1tlt8 -u:pon the reJHjl~~ gl:ven. eM"'i-i.er' ill t'h~ ,p.a\pe:[~ ~OOgnlJfj~llg '~hat; lLtn.1ike ~he. pt:e't~ons esse, ,~'he Sftcril3i~ {(It '!tJii!):~':§e:ro CQ.W,}XI;M{:!bl',tS, :r.(::pm~nfg ,8; :["eGUe.tl!IP,n in 'tll~ an!o~'~'t of '~rd:~:)t1rMJ,\Srt4QOC!l, 'tha;~, IS provided ~s ii[J]~~lt, to the B1a~q,lje:nt re-

~mll.

~ :~t qlli.e.stkm. ~t m.l,ffit, b~, oonst&~~ :i3~ ~~Wbe.t oo-ll1po.fierd~ s:lwuM be &J~ted In, oi:'d.e[' 'W' :!j,iim.]Ji1lfy the st~tb;tlc~ ;~.aJiy$~ v{j,fulrIDut de8)][\0-,y]ng w'nat)6ttte'I"

241

'~:Ui)a.lls, may exls!t,:in the ,e:KplQi'lio.tozy da)t~ FO[" ~[',~dicting t'h~ depeindJent v,!l,\l'iiaible'?~ There: ,a,re 9;t l\eMt two ll:.],re:t:flstive 'm!herla,; for ~leti~ campom.eDllts;'

a. Delete ~'he !JC,i,]rtJ?CHten:ts t.h.®t, ,8.:Jte :~~TI,brejjy' ill![l[m,porl:~nt ills ,preillcto:rs ,of ,the moiginal 'tlttdepmtkn;t oo-rt'ab~ (X) in the problem: ],e.", tche c~'m:pone:l1'illi; :ha,ln_g thiBl Bm:fil1est ei.i.ge[]!,v~~tore ~uld, be dr'@'p'~d.

Do. Delete. ,t'lle to:m~One!il.tB, "t'h..a\t ~ :r~~t4y~Jjy 'illrnlm,]Jormnt as :premcio:rrs of' the dt~~e:nl" ~a.ria~~6 (y) In the, problem. In. this C9J8.e the ~ C(Hi!IJ~nen't'S ha'v:ing '~'hel 8xlmUe_~t "'al'l!IeH at gtJ):m.tm\, {w ,~oJ".te[e;tio:n rOe~'Wee(fil. tJie 'OO[]l'" po:~nts, sad Y) LFlihol!Id be d1ro!(),[)oo.

Hokllng [5] :h~ PQiill!,t~rljj ou,t· t'I]~,t in ~DJ.~rai th0m is, nOI ,refl.SlJ!U why c~)<IlI.1J~;wne[l'b 'Mla4t a;r.e :lm~orl-ant ~ ,[aI' as tll.e hu:iJe:~ilJ,t 'va['ia'b~s ~[ ~ pl'Qble~, ~'f) 'i;)QE.-' eerned ~1l1 be highly CGH!'I(l;la;wd, l"dth "th~ d{:iIm'l1d~n't va;~i3'ble :in a" '~(lig['~~O,D,jo SQ 'e.nti1,~ld:a, ,a, ~nd b ~bov~ :a'r'~ n~b' '00 lssd to! dil'J\'eire[OJt;, :r€s~dt·s, Fur~t'h~lOOm~~j' ift Is ~a.~ly ,S'h.QrwR ,t'h~t if! :nood 'HQ,t; 00 higb.!,y' {\Q['ftlaited wi!tl~, eO:OO[\lo~n~s, q.v.i'r[tg:

Iarge ~l;genval~B, :!n Qi!d~[" 1'Q]' t]m '~,pla;naitl®il7' po''WfGlr' 0:1' t~o oom:pl~w prl!llcl.]Jal '@Q:m.pone:n'ts :oogreseLODJ, to be hi,ga"

n.e t:hoi,ue o£: e:rHe:r,ia, rn.'lffit reBt mlt'h tJl.e p~ of' the i!i'[ii:fJ;'[ysi@~, as 'w,e][ ,~ '~he degMe 'tel ,,"·b~~h time, princ~p.a'[ C.~)Ii.JJJiPO'FU~i1l.~a, :oos1ll1lts esn 'be, ]D!ltea:p:reted. in 'terms of "t'tiLel 1Ztr.ILI,c~m!e '0'1 ~h,e !p['uce~ 'Und:eftl~yh[i;g: Ute da'm, fur' th.e iru:Jepe(f~cl;e,]1't var,~ab].atl. :U 'thel ,ffr;gt :few :pii[~£\ipmJ (M~ifipOneD!b o.am, '001 relamecl. ~o ~OTnet~~j~g j~oos'lw:!l' ,filS hI bo,pe:[ully ,the. esse itt f1\etar ariJaJ'y;fJis~ for emm.:p]e~ tJlen ['t :may .m&.l~, se[~Be 'to, :rewl~ 'tl)~m ss e );:[plan:a;ttJiry 'vll.r.ia.hle.s ~;m B! iPrin~i:p,al ooru.:ponelfiJ.'t&:regre&< '~I·l'I!.-r. (I;',,",,;II! '~''I1'''''~i:'I _ 1':6ffQ_~~16~~ Air ,j,"" ... ,1f" """,~'la,;L;I·;;';!i; - -,~ ... ;II... ,oLe"'_ :, d. ""it'iu:I -~~~T'i,'" Vo[i,..i:: ""JL..,lb, _ l(-hl "'" 'i.o',~~~ "'Ji.i!_D~",,- ffi"'~~ ~-Q'D, ... ~,V~~Q.",a "-"= 1!J.I~~~, v. ............ "" _ 11.\ ..... ll W JOII!!U, 'lil.l€ ..... it"' .. (I!~! ... I.""';I. .• ,~ ~ "",~~!J~,", ~ -==

'~h{l; :a,'il,l!thoi's 'j$:x~ri~nee..!' oo(tup1Ju{l::nt:.s with Ja__rg:e (:~gtlitJ!v::Jj.]iU:as ,~ t41tli QJim'$ most :i:ikdy' 't!4i1 yidd, [[Jj~t~l m,OOrprcta;ilIio'n:s.} C-b:~v~lf8.elY'" if: thel em:phas~ is ,@u :~:~dlng '11M co:r,re'[a~ 0,[ l\" M,th.e:t thein, testiJ.n.g He :"ila'itkm to ,~y pa['M{'Iild~' a.tF.TILctur.al cQ[[Jj,Ce,ptB~ i.t, w'OliJ'ld seem '00 make 'mare, aense t~, adGpt cr,j,te:r.i,olmi. ,~ a,nd, rete.ln ,t'h©ae e(u:FI,po:fJ.euis with the EUl~st ya~U~8 Qt gam'[(ln. TIllE!, is often the C~ in j:Hnte1y ,e:x.p!}o[;',:\\\fto:ry ,atudJiea. The ]o.TIiTIer a,ppFonGh ha,s, been a!iuptedJ in '~he e:mpirioo[ 'Work '00 be [ie:PQ['ted ]o.rer ~ blat the results ghr~n, iii.ll ~i1i.e f'6]lQW[f~;g: pttta,gr,Bip,llB h.o]d'J' regardileas of' the ,miterl.on. used [Or deLe,tfng e.fimi,pDne:rds.

Removru, ,of c~Jrtpif.H,en,t8 'ua'U!S€a: ,the ]IDaa:i.ngs maitri:x: 'to, beeome non-square,

,~'-cl-'ll ..-.;:;;_~11~11"""''''1 !'!hu f:'I,~lU't' fio'l: 'i"O'l,(iif~ .... l! ~\,'I,.<:ii .... t',:b."" - -,oi:J,t-....:i",,<'t;I)i l-'lL~~. -,."~"I)i .. JI 'lI'bn,'!!ru_ :IDF has

Rfllj)li JO,~tlh,,~fl' ,!.!~~ "",,JtU!~~ 'Vii. }~~y """iI, '!H.I ..... ...,.'Ii:U: , IDa; .... , ... !'J~~ 1,!Ii~~''-oI~~'ii.u, .... H "-'! -~~, ='!.! '~, ~

'I.l.. ~"" ... ",o!W!J"" _ hn,WCV""T ~ ""iIk~, .... ''''"q-~'''''''"il'iit1l'''' 111=,(,':!,\ '1-.",,] A' _ ____",~",,,,,'!h.i:i'" 04-' i'''' ::Z;fi'U<['.i'[',,,," or ]]Lot ~='" ~~'.!' ' v ,-_- ~ ~""_'~ ,~~~'"' ""_, _W-V""-"""Z' 'i,:=J ill .B""'JlU,~ VIi~~~'~~,.;\., -' - ~.;:o "'."01"""""~ "" ~ ~-_.

It e~n. be Shown, tha't 'MJJ.ey hQld~ ~,~dl~ss '!l)ff "ihi~ih {lQ'm.po:n.cn.te; a'['~ r€:mined~, Q[" Qf t'h~ o:mex ]n wrue'h troo ,wl!lunn's, Qf' A Q'f€l ar,t:f4n.,~~dl. 1"hc, :fact that otheft 'nQ!D,~!llu[l e;o:m:pO!IJJell'te, ,exist has nQ b~,ing 'U[I;)Q'll tc{m ~]iJ.:p;th(!itiJ.1~u!l;2 gi.vcn, in (:0- (:~) ~m;J, henil!e ,~a'n,iOJot a'feet ~'1i1Y of' ,t'h~ ]~t!ln" results,

:D~~thm 0:[ '¢l'De Qt more :nQ:m::{l['Q pr,Q.,dpal oonliJ~Jn(limi.tos ~!i!1.UIW; '00 :pattitl);lliflimg' the ~,t of ['fiidelp.endei.lli,t, 'Vlula:ble-.s, iJnoo, 'tWf;i; gJtQu:p.s of n vairiaotes, eS-l:ln,t. aseumlJl:i;g: Z i8, of :ral'uk .:;;t. (U a. a.e:~.eeti.h)n mlterio,n 'bi!l.'5ed. en the g.am:mM [~ ilI£edJ1, orne oj' the "tw'tl ,gr.«tt:ps esn be re,pr.ded, B.a, rel:a;ted to,ttJhe depe:lid-eltrt. Y,0018it1) lei ~'~ii ~he other as :rBra.~['~1\~br' lXruNJ:a.ted.): Thii!!l :m~b,t bel ~xvres.aed. as :fQ]jows,:;:

T'~ eft')~!l}~, 'G'i the n 5i[]Jg1i,:r 'p:r.imoo '\\"a;da.bles ,~!} ,~ included ~~ ,the :oogoo~oo~; while fhooe 01' ~ dQ'UJbly pr,hifi~d s.et sre t'hr'~'l\']l if-roo t~: ~T term,. &tl~g'~ of ,the: ~em ooeffitll.e[l,t,s :i'oI' the: ~' Ibre obtained by workli[]Jg tb:rtn],g,b. eqWltioJi.i.

t'l;;]!) ., 'I .... - 'h J. f-" -,'l.. - 'L. 'ih..... - '~ -'3 d - - iI1.. _. -

!I,: ,;1,r, 'IiMMng Olll..._;r-- ~ -'£lee m:J<mp(EFte!lj;iIJS _J t'-lii.at. ufJ.\Vf:: ~en, :mC!L'U.'UL.e - :!I.Tf1 t~ regress!lo!DJ",

The vall~ '0~ nle zj oatil ~e esM'mated. b:y' the: eqwa!ll<io[l Z(;) = ,A'~[) F(""'~ t ilf d~clL

- - .

The PNli,porlioiDJ, of the V,;ri!t,lliC~ 01' ~~;n. Qf the: '0,rl;gi'li.i.tll varitLhles ~!: tha,t is !tC-

eeuntsd fil}t by ~4 :i.t give.n hy' ,t'~te BU:n1t 0] iS~lJJHeS of the eletDl.etlJ.~f:i ,a_~ 0:1' ,A,,~n. TIakttn

,', {1"1l'" '.... '11'1 d' ... "-t ,. 1? .... ...., '].-)

OIV'e'1:' J. \'~,iil!~ f.HJm rs C.M!}e a (lo:m:DiJJiUiil:l!il:JJl-y' m ifft6lid:' :ana. y~m"

Thl1S- tee 're~si'!i(n of a. dfilh6'i~d1e,]l't ~'Ca.'r:ifj)'b~.e '1ii~J:J. ,s. 'reduced ~t oJ 'rrrii]}jJingl

l l."'!-'-~'l "~_. ~ .. ~-~~_ ..... 1_. ~"LI',1 ... ,_J V -~.~ -, -,t,E-'o.I.'- _.l - ••• - •• ,F = "-_,~_

eiJ!~nTio.n{:![llba, :a~U!rt!rl'.H'J '00 n';i'rtitior:tJh~;g' 'the n--:S-I):i;\OOI ,Sltllfl:,lU16d, 'b'!l' tbe o:rio-iif.i.~], Inde-

~U~~Wlr~ .'"" ~w=wW' .w·~" •• _" ",~~ ~ J" l •...•••. _.~_-w.=-. __ l.,;J .~".~ ~""'w -- •• -.

,ende:f.i.'t vnriaibl~s iFf 00 ,tW1Q {!I,rtb0Cun~], ~~'b..'5,p.aOOS., ;U t'ne g~m;m.a {lritelllO!ll, i8 USGd."~ Cine a;]J~~ Qf: dim~'f.i.tsi.Q:1iJ. ~, (t41e nU.n-.iJbe:r ,®f :reta]l1:edJ. e:~,]ll:PG[]J~f.i.'rtls) :~ ,dJ~Iij:~ed ~Y' pIi'fi.i.'e~pa1 a~~ ~'!hat lie O~i~Fflim'tii:velY' ,dose '00 'tfie; ,~(li~[}de-(Ii~ 'I,;",a;r,iable v~w,r. ~n ~'h~ '~u][ ~~Tii]e ~'paOOI ET', LThe adiifii,cial ,-:' v,~·t"hibl:eSl d6MedJ :i.R ~, 'Il'ion~.ed]jlla

:.I~. ....".::'l. w"~ ww'r.!;:!:i:.J,i-' .... " • •• " • _ • = ~ ~ . _ ~ . . z. w ~' • "" _ ••• • _ • ,...... w.-r ~ • .t?". w. ~ .' b

iP~a.~ph rep:oose:~'t tba ])WOlootOOl'L!5 '011' tbe Qx,iginal 'v~~,iables, ]n,itifll ,th~ ,Em sub-

d tli..·~ t~ - .. ,.. & .... '"0 r;l"

Sp.Q!e(l:~ Qn,.~._Ji~ ,~~ - a'rel proJoo,!,;,nl"iis mso lti:!, ,oomPl[liooe-I!I,'~e

OnJJyem Qf tb~ xl a'~,~ ~,~em, of the cSj'~ esn be 'Li~~~ly htd~,pellde:[i.i.t; fuh~~s :foUon ~ a dlreet C~,:tl:E{':~u~n.a~ 0:1' '~~l d~:mEm;siQ~ Q<£: ~ subsnaees In ,wrue.rn t'be;y a're

""::II, u.:I,~

.J1-i:: ........ 1!i ,!'('L.t.~ _,r. - ,ic'i.. - +" ted ~'i cr <L'L. ii .. ·n 'L ----t.." - -J!. J:, ~ - ·.'II'~n ...

UelJ!lJl.l;""-i. -,.L J:i.er'~Dr'~, '11iUe ~1,.',][J']lQ;~ : ' v~ues, 'i4!'!I. wil,~, F-'i$ 'Wl!u:, !IJIe Su.0J'ec ... liQ :no - m iL.e~

reet'ri.ctlID<]m,t ar mtlltej :m the ar,igiMl 'v,~B;b~e~ ,are not l.!Ild!ep€ru:len,t. N'G' :r:rinr ][1;= :fOlimatliUn ,~bQ:ut tche ne;tUIl'f:: of ,th~: two S1abspaee~:i8 needed befote, ,cO'lldu~tmg '~lle' 3'i:!i.a'lyBi~s ~ ]lot 'e-v~r!i. ,th~&r respective mm.enaiO[lB, need be kIlo-w,n. Oe t~ Qth(!~ '~clL!., -it ·ma,y 'be dMleu1t to"iif.i.'~m the ;z/ and. ;z/"' In ~errD 'Of the 8'IlI,oomn,oo of

;I;,'h ,~. .., '[ u, 'I.~. ',",

'~efiliiPlneA prth..!',~rn. .. '"

:2;. E~IC!ATJ :l1ilBlJi:tlr,5

Th~ n'tis,ti~~]. pi]1}e~-d;urre~ d,e-,!'(!:l()'pedi lu ,th~ pmvlOiliS ~~th]iDJ, weN~! ,a.pp]ied 'M :& set 01 renl da:t!h in Qrd.~ to, g~.n w:m~ iinSlght :[llito tb.e pmlj'fi~(\al :p,ooble~~ to 00 ~eteclJ, :m their ~pptiQat.i(J;n. 'ThG; data, W~: seJelU-teclJ 00 :tUj; tlo, oom:pa;re 'th~l ,re~ulb from using: the: :~w teeh[ltq~: ngfdut tmooo froM, ~'la&:1icalln~,l~'ti.pl~ :I'~

--- -~ - ,r '.,ic.;i.::; 'iL. t- 'L ~ -li'il."", t- . - - - - ~ -"_ . . .. i1yA flo he

~I'e$'MO'[l, li[]J, :(1, is],i,!UnwQln W!L!L~TC: . ~I!L~ 'u!s€= OJ!: L.'1IJ~ .wo a!P!P[leliat"-,,.e~ Sffi':i(fioc.ljl_~ .~ _ I(~.

,--.-.-" - .. -.'L'-ly -- ,-4-~,L.'~. I ,_ .Jd'-:·~; '"~ . 'i. ---.-~I ,,j.,'l..A J.I LIb... ff!l1·' "' .. al :find]" . s ,oo~"" . ~€ml!pi!L!WiiU!Le., n ~ ~_lL:iilQiDJ"I' lL:i WQ.'S .l!LopelUi ""1m,,· ,,,(I.!e {L _ _;PU1~_ . c_ .' c. ~ ,

'woUld prove: TIO he: -iF.i.U::~ng ]f.i. their own rig'ht.

llescripr~,~ ,&j 1}t1i~:a. Data an the' ,~ist~b~~inm~ Q!~ lPlOO:rrw, :f'Q:r :fi1'l:rulie.s and iijtlirela.'tred ][]dJi y,id,'WllB (in 194D) 8iilLd ed,'l[tca'ti\o,nal ,~bac'v~!n1J.e[]!,it fOor mmJe 'fa.mlly 'h~ wel'~ obt1aine~l from 'thel OO~J:!il[t~ ~!t',s.e~ s.t8.&~[es, of Mte ~ity O'I Oldcago ,for l~ro.~' ~.~ da't1a 'L'IJI~1I:6 '~p ~ ~t Qf :independent 'v,~'h[-es in '~be Sct!udy-" They e~,ns~ ()I' tie, ])ropi)rtJ~,:o~ o£: ,~ tr~t?$ :MPUJmtion hl.i3't :u.~[ jn,to 69.ell, Q,]'

-=~~====.=--=~--~.-=~~~~~~~-=~=========,

.' 'j!fhi.k; :rmt :tcglil.tcIii '!iio, ifut; .rIl1\~~ Ii~~ :m;I.!?Il~ ~Il, iiilii!l; ~['" ~6i:1i!1iJi(i.l ,(!~~£I!!, ~Iim mil.¥ !!!'1,IR"~' ijjMlflj'l iOt., a~krriIllIi MJf.ajg ·:lIf]'o[]~ ill, 'mrl1l:'1;iL'M" ~"I!!m !pi\iii!!i~i111!1 ' ..... Q~: W iJ;'b,e ~ L11 ~ lIl~d~llt. ''F."IIorl., ;!i;bJe.I!I"i!I,'l)fi ,~~~ ~;:on'CT .. iQa, W:iilQ1, tli:io' d~~~l:Ii ¥!Iicil:b]~' ·and i!;.ii '~~il ,[iiTId, tID t'b!!; 'ii~' ~ 'i'JIl;l ~~~'ii , ... ~i'i~ ,M.tI ~i'ijibor:[' m~h 'lIli!lJ!l!! ~I:' :1D"~h:~ '1;iII~t.e:d '.mil,;01JiiII ~iJ.ar. ,tlJ.K! iJ!!fIE!1 'r:.!i:!i!! j~~, wnl!lll;lH.ll, t'lI;t,m. ~~" (;io:[j,clitl:01ii ~iJ Iii: IIlHlnlMl:'y' to ~.[l!I;'[]R; '~illlA: 'i:li~, ~ 'iriiil be,,~~I';(i,'!iI!:Id ~ 'I:ib~' ~fIf{I ~:'IiI.'" ~ :pt:iill;~'~,

, ,: _ _ , Ii., _ • .:1 -,"i., Iii. .. !-. !II. • •• II~' • .1 [j~ _;. ;, i.. _ _~, _ I,. • _. •• _ .,. • _.1. •. .J !Ill'll 'Il. _ _ _I'I_. _ . .i. _,.3 iI1_._, :,_, _.1, ••. ..;;;,:.;;.;;;. :: _. .fL,,;;;, ;;;.... ~,;a,; I~~ r. ;;;.;;.::..~,;;;.

,the, f1Qu['ooen '~:noo:me c]~~ ~~ing :frtlm HIO--EOO'~ t®, ~~Oye~ il0~'00i;;!) tt.nd n.Inr~ eclJU!~ .. a;tio;n c~s' (r,anging from ~.m!!' F'O:rmal eclJ~,l~tliQn?r. 'W ~ooHege g~ad~, Q~ or 'wtWr~J') :l'~:porled, In, the eeasus, Orn]y ,UiI,€l m3tgi'f~al dist.:rlburuUf~~ :£o:_.:' income: ,B:nd. ,eilueatiiQ'[JJ, 'we:re, a .. va .. i]a'hl\e~ ,t.hu~ the, ,nu~~~ber: of :independel],t '!ra'!:'iablaFII wtIS 23. 1'-he 'totaJ nuanber '®,E oenBti~ 'tr:a~d~ i["tclltl.ded in 'tl'Lel sam:pi\e wM :1091,. The ][iide:~mdent 'vtU',blhlee- 'were :suh}oo'ti '00 'twe, l]naar ~~rtJr,lct:ioc~s,r. L~rnee ttu~ :frrlllrliee[JJ, Ineeme fIillld nillne edtll.rn:dtion vali:iab1a~ had] '00, :BU!m to O['l,ej !$C:pa;ra~ly, for each ~!t

.D.~(nn:' de[)e[nwil,ert~ 'va'[t',iables, 'W~ 1;J~n. from the: iSE3,m~ somce. 'Their' :u.m~,~

dejh~~t_IDn$,r. and Ul.@a,[l ~~U!r,a.tLQn,t! le:~h :ibr the Ei&mp[e Me as iOl!lUWB"

.p,'~1J:, O~jl".t_ij~:p\, ']l'iIli.e :p'ropO'~tio:tl {If:' ,the b(f~e~'Id~ ht t'b,e tr~~t ,th~;~ (rw:n~d !l):D~' !l1t' m~ '~eile"lil!.~(i~ ~~, w'h.et'it~~, o-i1 Eliot '~'bJal m w~ btL 'wf"Klng U,ra;f!'!' at '~'be, '~'ITi:e '€Ii tm.>e 'I!;DillI:ifIfI.Ci13,mQIl!", :M'!2!Bn ~iIItu!f-~ta!oii:i, = ,,3:L

H;t!n,(J.ti~~ Ow~~i~~P" 'r,be, ~.n'{j~riii:fn ;[j~' bunh,J]!Hhi '1.!IiI. t'b.~l tiiii,~, t.1l:a.~ had t.1li.tI O~ of :8, mil(lihiuli.cal ,i'"cltilg:e.ruw'r :[\!Y.r ,tb,e; reit'igt-r,[l,tiQIl o-f fQ!lJd :f!l ~'Ii!.e ~hi;t;me. {,!E.L;i,~~ ~c-e C'he~k! .. ;ew,1i' w-ere ..,~'~d8ii1.} li,"Ee~ !!;I~t;uHlitiOD, ~ .D!ll.

ae1i:~'''a~: Htat1'tif" TllI.e ~]O;P0rlj!OO'i, iI1if :~:mua8'bo1da; :iili;i, tili;e t~~~t, 't!Qtt wilro ,m;oQ:mrl'~i!18d Jn a dwellins WlrUt. 't!hiilitt. w:l.i:i he.Blit.ed b~' p'~,p;ed B'e~~~~ h{itt WIl.~;r:~, !WI" 3 ~ntr,~; Wifi,_'_r;p::J. ~i~' f~ Da~. h1J.ean. sa.turra;t!OID, ""'. 7Z.

~J!:7"c.roooill.g., ',[,ib,e, pi"0'p'~,().Ii, o.f h;j)lI~f.ii~, hI: ij:,'li!..e ib:r,~'fi, d,Q~n~d! in ~ dWJI;iHli1l!B; unit, ibJlll,villi.'S: :1.Ii~, ,"'v~r.ap ,~,1;!.p~iY :i'"$.t~, O,~ :mtiti!!l: t'bS'ifJi 1..0m ~O'J!Lj; pe:t" room, (E.!:c'I,uJaled ln

,~. .11 6 - -" iI! '-b "-'Ii.. 'L._.!~, '11_ __.'k_.Ji "'h

t~i!: ,u.!J mtllil'fi e .. ,~ [,M:J1I!L were . fI;t~.~N0m!3\; ~~~J' 'iM1"i~t~ po~~,~ ,~i;.J! ,got 8.[' :roilIi[lli!!

~,~o1, iIi!~~,t~bl~ f~r. li!.vl'!lg a.~i;liOlI!Lmooa,ti{!n.s • .!:!). ,M,(l!~tl. £il\f:i!1li.i"B,tiJi)'lli, = .:llS.

Ia ,oodi'ltint!J. to iIl'!h~ varm1Dlm 'ultlHzoo ~iil 'tih.e. 'w.rinJi1itlla] @)im1?W\~~g{IIiiI'res..'5iQ:f.i

~ ~_ ~~" . - . ~.. _ . - ~ . _ _ .. .... - . - . y..I . - ¥., ". ~~v.~ . ". l""l •• !!:J; .. ~ .~

Q'~l~~ ,t'h~ ~~ of' the Ineome arid OO,rll.tea.ti~}~l dif3tdb1,ftti~,ns wnr.s '!l'.aleiJJ'[a;l1~~

f' "1.'-'1· '~,~ .] '" TliII.-

'0[" 'use iIi.5 ea[o,~etl®;I!iS Y5'[,iBu es lin, Hi!)ffne [e:JJi;!!.Sf.:!~}i~:Q. ,:ir,e;g['~Il)~ :r.l(I.l]S. ',~ JJ~'" '~r'e 'earn-

pu.ted, Ding tliel :m.]clJp~}]rut~ ,ef 'tMl ~]~, ~f.iiOO1¥""a]S! :as, ~'UJlt]~Ue~ f'~Er th~ 'pr'dl'lJOr't.iDns~: the: two, up,per @]asses were Qpe:~-.e;~Jkd,J' so ,th$ vaJ]ues IrJ~OOO ,~nd :il6 , .' adJe.s w~fOO ehesen ]'c;()'ra or' lass ,f;j;·d~li'l"ttQ;"ril~ :1'01(' them,

,gr e,. n ... ".~ ... ~~~ .,.~;f ~- ~ ~

PM D~ M odd'," [The 'n~rn.-ii~~ ~f '~h0 :Ut'!,o'"estifl!'1'L',tloru 're:nnlted nere b to

, .. , . ,., ... ~ ._ "~~ " 1'E-'-~,I~~"'" ."~ .~~. . ,-_ '.~.' .' .,t'"---. ...

{iUmpare thel .re~:mU~ QbMJh1ed. f:~'Q'm pl!']nd~~ -eo:m:pQliien.h.-:r.e,EW,ess],on 8tilYR~l 'Uijtili~in.g '~hel da"t"8. ,rl\eS{friood ~b{r'1~: 'wilt'h, t.]u;J.~, from. ~fussiiJ]tIJ, ie~sq'oores :a.'fiaJ!y~ ;ii:!1£: oo'~d, lffi 'tbe u(5l~1 t~ [Olf $'!lml'!n1liiTY isb:t~M'QB M:'il!ltJ may 00 de:r.ivecll :from Uta [~tSh The, F;(iin~wm.g cxpressID,ns r:®y the doeInaud 1;0'11" stocks (If ~, f;QiJ!l~' pl!'Od1,(l.~ts beiillg isi:u.d:ieclj, were: used 1m 'th.e, i'WID ,analyaes.

[(i)1 :P,riilliOlpal ~il)]iJjpiU'MD!,:b9--:regr(t~~3Q'a :a.nre]y,9~~.!, The ~xibility o:f' '~l~e :pri!ll,ei:pal ~1l;Ji11lJJPQ[l~~regreB9i:O[l, a:p,pooac:h. pe'r[§riit.!~ u{~liz-a'tiQ;n ,~f ,t~ census imo:r,ma;ti(l'Fl QIl, ,the distrihurM.on o£ :Ul~OjMle :a.'ncll ,oouea't30n W'.ii_hl~, e~b. ,tir,~t In :H.s :m.os.t dis~ggr'et~.r~tJye: form, regm:d]ess o£ '~'he problem, ,u£ ooUiil~earl.~y',!, 'rMse dis,tributi®'D rn~ be :«)'fu:k;d ,to the trAm/iS istl.\tur,atlufi (~Qf each of '~lre d~:pend.efi.ft y~Mes) in tJhe j:d!J1!nrin.g :m.al!Lne~ ~

:i!4,

Y' 'E" b (-p' '"p") + 1" 4-

. • . _, , • t· . ~ " - ~. I 1 • n ~l

'-' Ii! _, ... ··."(f. l., - , . 1[. _ . .: ~ ~~

,:f.i-~~,

===~~~~~~~~~~~~===.~.~~~-~--~----

M4 .MJ;clJ

.il ..... rn;n,I .... A 'U 1:!I!D .• "~""".il L ;Ii.rE:liflnl"!lT ;I!.T.1i..",;JJ' 'II'1"11,Tl;;r!loU.Ii iii', ' •• '.iL n .... B' 'l·...,,;i; .fJ.~M...:~~ '~" 1W~\II[.,~l"_""·~[~~~-~ ~ [~~l~·.::'l~lll" ,.,v. ~j"'''J'''A~ ,1i'IJii_B~~1IiI. , '~

i!

Y', = :L b.I:~'(P,Jr~' ,~ 1',1I,~) ,+ 'Y,~, + ~~.

,f..{I,

In the, ,eqWitioM,~ P,1t'~f 8F!ld P1-,.:}, :ref-e[" tG th~ ~t¢:en,~ Qft heuseholds iiD. '~h~ j'~h. iI1ld.u.eiiti.0Ii, ,tLmrl, Inoeme ils'$s~ re~~Citliveliy'~ ln tJre ith ~e,t.., The ,e~ and u,~ Q'['~ '~'~ random er,rur' 'te:rn~m, im the eqil1td.lri1na" The deBnl!ti.o:Cii's of all ,the other vs;r,iablee, and !p~rill-ete~B s:bO'uld be ,~)t:r,,],(jijjB i':ro'EIlL ,the Cun.tex,t. The ;j!~T!Il. oj' thel .aibove eqWi)t-ion~ ]J~ also an e.q1l:U:.;t,:OO[L It bas ,thel de~irnble pwpe~Y' 'of eO(f[}hi~d[J;g the :illoome ~d ;e41~(\;!\'t.i~rR :inf;QI'~~B'ti@ill :hl'W a shrug'~e: ;e~p;oosakm. th't is 9::VAOO1:it1b]e

.. = r.iiil '" b ""'iJ,,.~ • , '~ .. , m "' ... ~:.. -u Th"" .. \.0.

'rlN! :(IL'~~ Y5liS, . yl,,~ [pI[',~R'C:~:pa.~ {:Q;m[p(l(~lijIDfr!.lS-::r®.g!r~!l)n.~~ii.~l.que. 'L ~~ gn{~~, rUl!J...e

f@U@I!!1f[1lI.:,g demand :[~'[[L'i:J,-w.Q'n,~'

!~ t

f'i ~ E (tb,l;l)(Plt[ ,_' 1'1:;) +' E (~bB:1)(P,B"~' - Pll~" +, y~, +, tt~, U"S)

,I-\~, " . . .I'" !I. . " "

w~~,~ t~, errcr v,~ is equal to Q!Il~baJf t4he :ij!1,:Ulil [G1f [e" aili.i.'clJ tt,.:. The: re~ss1,Q,11J. eo,e;ffick:n.ts, irep:~~[L't t~ [~ffe·et of {k::"vli~t~,O'[JJs, in t~ income ma ,ed'wootmm ,cljics·' 'trib1,iti(Hl~ ,ot ,s. ,gi'~"ernI 'tract~ From, ,tJh®se "fur Ure sam,pIIe u, s whQle,~, u.ptll1i.i. the,

..... ,--. - ,L ~, '~i~' Jl~'l. ~; L Tot.., • ," ~~ 'I~ 00<1; ...... ..1 ~,] b .jl

~liw:\!llttj]n .:a..e'''""e~, ,or. "Lillie ",,:ti:Mli" , Jill: ifmn:pmmi resu ,,,,iii, :rnpor~g, ,Me ill, e-ooeitli on

heM ,uoe,£fi-ci'emtw of' regress:i.o:n,~ which arel :l'€~B\teclJ to nu:.~ paraltil.€,-re:r[s 0-1: (1[6) hy' ,the f:,xpreSsilY.Dl fJi~ EI! (rllltj) (!1:.J (JI,),~ w'h.ie're Xi: im any n1;B(mber ,ef ,the ~irld€!pe!rIJrlejj,t 'v;Q;riablles'" 'Ve(l,to:r.

"'IMl. .. _. ,....-.u'-~ ,-~ .&!ir .. :~:l: ,"Ui~"'~:!Co~';(j' , ... ,'b..&!il b' oL\o[i, :,"".....:;;m .. ,i~r.,.." .... , ~;~~l ,,.;11,.;,;,;:, e~iIo_'II~.-1~ '."o<i, ""l"": ~, .:""'c",'b~ ....

.l..I!~ ,!l.lillOm~I::i\li, UJ, il'v,t"""illl;l~l~ U"I.iI.'Ci _ elU .... ~o;,n;:;!IJ~J ... ,I/I;lI,1.,m "'u IU~J~~ 9~ .... ,U.r ,~ ~.Ji! u::'" ._.Irw.iIJ""

II,.; "[ik~ ,~1'~ i':I ..:Ii" '1':-" . 1l..~. l.~ '~" '!h.:l If

Tu"e j'ueta ,!P'![IO'JJI~~ , Jll'900~'OO~ 'I~ Ji':i)~,u~ 1 L~W '~se resl!.lJJ-s m 'fiLe :~J'Onu Q~ ,9-

OO!ffl€eted gl',a.~ll! whieh, ~mp]ies eQr[tl~ QO[ll~i"R-m'i,t':~t Q:f ~jffi~q,~ oot\l'e~~ p.dj,a.()i,~mt lue(j~ B'[i,l,d .e;d;UG4~iti.o:lIi. ~l~s" Th~: PrQcedJ!ur~:~ 'valid, beeause a;djao@iIl,t, c'[as~ repre..~n)t si'm,Fil~ 'i:J,illh; along: th.e ;SMn~ i.!Il£0'me or' ,eG'umrt.ion d~hu,tiQji~: tl.m 'tbc Qbs.ery~ v~]_iJl~S of' be-~m.l:@rl' two fir mere Bdj,fi\re11J.t cl~s ]TIi~'h!t be e,x,poeGted. to 00 mo:~ :I!i.~ady the same '£h!wI 'w'diuld be ,t'be ease i'~fli' widely !Se,paril'ood cl~a" It, OO,ust be ~iliJ.1~hAiired tima't th-~ oIDnHmtnity of Mle Be;r."eml 1-n-unm.e a'r!J.d edur[latiom djjme;n$i~n~ ls 'n~t a neceSiiEliry' C0lidition 1'@,r the W3e ,(j£ :pr,in~[:p.a[ rf:iOm,puJ1e:tlf,s.., ~gn':ss!o:[ii a;'iIlaJiYBis" Tibe m.eb'hodB, dJ~ij]ii1aed ift ~~ :pa,!PBtr will ,~~ae[ woik on, ae-tS1 o:f vrorit&bl.es tha'~ do !liot ,9hMe ,a logi.cal to'mIf~,onaIity'j' ~'I,~'h_.olIl~'h tll_ey rill~Y L~tlil 'be hi ... t. ih ' ... : .. '[a'red • ~ rnOi'L1"t 't'h:eillfiOO]':: '00 _ Pa"'1tS ,of c,va;ri:9.hle~ ]iJoo, '~a vem,j)',e; F~~OO:rn,e,~

" ~' .~y ilJOTIe .. :R~,. o...o~ . . ~ v ~ ~ ~. .1 .. . ~ = .. ~ . ~ '. .. .~. e,. ~e~ • ~~~ ••

. ;~ ii:'~~~'~~'1""!QiU',fi """~ .~r~!(;kil1l:iJ' wjJv~;I;!' w~~'~H 'ili~Qii""ii be 'Ili"''"!'''in',j.'''h~·~, ~f!i[" iIl!s,*iI1L""eO~

,!i:D.t:I. pei['....,;;D,!,j~~ """.Ii, n"",_ ""'e"~ ~ ~ .~ .'. 'I;.!I .... " U f/e_"ifV' .. ""' 'Il!!""'''' ... ..,l!,l!i!o "~l' ~ 'V- ,~ __ " .... ~" """

The [)M'~iel\l'~ Si,!l" d(:;Inatud. model ~]ld :it.s ,~·o-c~"ted da.b. base ~d, En, this, i$tilldy '~re eltoSeIl bee~~ ::: (~) $OiI".Dle :inf;Q:r.~aA;.i.Q:1i.i. BJh@,ut the '[JJ~tlBe of the s~tur~tiiIDr]!l~ ineome and ~':t!IIJ!r,atiJ@n~dilJeI~;twfl, ~,ff:,'~e,~,-,th~;t :~~, th.c :sha~s Qi ,the be,t~ profii~w,~, a'.v,~lilabl~ Q'~ (;!i, priori grQ'!J,]iIlde~: (i]~ t'~ prlnclpnJ Cri1'M'pri1ne:n-ts.:rcegres-

• 11 ll[] 1b d ' h 1. f' nJ]-'" '.',

"'~H-~ ~pCo~ ..... , ... t'!l':'Iilr~_~ ,0 ,",.-;;~.n'nd:l'''''''''', WIt, ,t.'u" .. ..-.I!i; ... , (I, ,!uMW:["Q:.~1~iJiill. iIlsJrntr sumrnarv IlIliv]LL'o:1DlLm "-''''' .... ,~.~ -.~ ""'-!'~~-v.-~~.- ." ~~." .. ~"""gQ y.~. . ~.;I' .C!,~'............. . ,~, .. ".L-4

i"~[O:Hlll'JtiQll 'f!t'om t"he, m~ne clat.a, base lin Q :fg,irIv dlimet f~(ljm.· and i:llri,\ there

~ ... ~] .. 1 ,"~ e ~. ..~. . ... ~.~ " •• , ~~.~ .... "" J'. ~" "". . :! ~. ")

'WifSlS; ,~, !l}]).])Q:ri"!ali.Li,ty' to in.vestigate, the, slt!i:!l:d!uty- 'IDI the: priitcii[pBJ oom:pr.Hle:trt~ regm~Qn '[p:[lG!ood~ In, knru~ QI dep~I1Vli[ies f['~im, tll....e e;xpect.ecl, ~lnoo,th 19~ha;peeJ

-~ ,t'L 'L_~' ~. - t::ll.. ~L. ~ .. - -~'..J:.! .. - ~1' .;l'11. ~ ~"~'~"I,,~ Co m"'jl\,~,.:1 denend onl ·n iIJ,Ii, "ll~ 1.I'I?1:i~ [p[',e'J!1lle3. .ll ne (p[,OP€!L'lliie!!i UJ. Wile, e~ .... li[~~a.ulOfM, ~~~.e !oiI,uuu '. _e!pe~~.. ~ ~ _~.y Q.~~

the iilID['ilIe1!e.tlon, p[l@'pertbies, (j~ t'l1e da'lna, a'Cld ~ot 0~ thel s,:p~c;ljSllJ []~t'1!U~1l: of '~h~ :r.nodcl

'~h if- aJ]-. t1i~:Iim' d" 'b ~clJ '~ '00 'P~ f '[e l·I--de~·t:::..JI

' . --~ . - ~ .~ ~ -~ .~. - .. ' . ". - . Co' ~'~ "f . . Wi . rul\f:U!

~ .G1~: or an "ySilB~ BO 'e:,:.! :HISS ~.~!J!I' &;\lul" va,_ (L e .SSe .!O"'~,~" 'e. e.

- £~ ... -

~Q:~tJl.

{i'i'!j C]~~i~sJ ':Re~I'~.h:rl1 &[;flli· o!tl~h~a'"': :OO~~Bi«r tuns ~~E!rel ~: ~ad;e ~o nee-

~........" __ t: _ '~.I!!i' ,,- ._ry . ~,.".. _=il. W .. m .. i£"'f

"..,11 '!hi ~ "01', ,OJ, \l..,~ 11,j.. '1,.., .. "". d '1,.., • ,jI,'1;.,~ • • 'I .. ""-

''I,;1!'!,:I!E:!i a C 00"';'; :tlgalin~M 'Wi~ :reS;'llI;!!I~~ Odl!k:i.:mB _' !:J'y' 'u:::Img n~ :PlI!rimp8~ OO~:PO[l,re:tl'~'

'" . hni 'I'"" 11 'iL • ('1 ~) . ,. ~ .

~(I!'iI"'~S$l!~in ~c mique, . ,to ~s eoo~ '~~i!Jj.t '(i;...,~tW'!DJ,' ,l~.r, 1.$ :n!l}t ,~1l'i'1i'Iro'~11~te ~::or UOO :~n

~, "'4 ~ It'"V, ,17"'

ordin.!I;i]'Y :r~g:r,~on\t ,s~u~e both th~ :ineQ,]}l~ and ,e~:hu~~aUon, varin.bl~ ~u ;a,["Q;

cr~:d'l]n~,. (~ va;r,iabl~s ][JJ, CQ;~, ,~f ,th~m. :m.u~,t [sum. ,tQ' Qn~;) The re,~~ssiQ!]' p]!tn@ wouild. be hi."ll.ll,,v' 'U!nst6;!bl~ ~V'~[ij; if !l;l'ruz, '!l;lf the 'V~bJ~ :from ,~~'b, :oot We'["(l;

~ ~~~

deleified ta, de.stroy the slnguJj~ty of' the s,ys:~~m.. 'T~rcfQ:~~ It IS nce~'ry to derive some SUliLim.isty ''!,\".B:rmb'les, 1 [i0']TI, the: ~81b iiOJ, arder to perform, ,the eb'ssimtJ

• .~, 'b..a:.~ -"1 ,L a, iL. - ~ ~'L. ~ iIl.,.~ • a, 1

regre~i1i~,QJ!L. U :m.ay ee ]1QI~ jmi. [)iI&'i!i'llLg '~1Ii3t liiOJ. 't.iU.e :(ireae:mt ,G8 .. Sf: tJJj'~ 'prii]l(]l:p.a

;fuo';,.'[ra'A;fJoI~il!Iiil:l'i<i",,,,,ul'j''''~'''r... . - ~.:;£·ib."" ,'1 ;II'. :ii'I!i.'Il- ~.,iQ' ~~-u;~j~,11 ~ '~,~ ·.oiMjl..,u 1',,,", ';&''''''''''', ""'.'~[-:"~,~'I~'£fii;i

........ =J;,.".,.~~IU:!.ig '" <:iIoI!!j'.l, _. .IUI1"o'" mil:; Il:U.lUlU W ..... U,',lIi;;!$ !I: ... [I ...... , ~clfY ~IW""~ II;, liV\lIji "-'l'I;:Lr,,;~J!IlL'I,;~

.::!~'I_m' .... 'i!i,'j,rI'y,' ~;i'!lom.:!lli~~L'l: f·rtWi.~ .... '11O;lhu nliO;g·.inoml ,..JICi," .... ~';i'!I .. , [!(f~;.o"iIr , ...... 'li'!.o'!IgIe' " ~~t. ... Ji'i,. '1l' .... , ''','b ~ .... 1I~ ~i;il· .... ~.,,11

~-~=~~~t~~ ~ ~ .. ~~~~~~ l~ v.~ l!.i~~ ,-",II 8 y~~ ~ ~ _ .!,J;.II~ U'IJI t!J~, ~. "!QQJ.VU~ J.II_.II. lUI=-ft:!! ~m!:l~ 'VA"-Ji

. . ..

~ used fJ.£'!r.e; ,tJurr~Jtu:..r.y ~~UNS ,s.te dejh}~Ml ,o,~ c.l priori' gl'.(J.Iultds; ~athe.r ~'he

~,.::!' snmrn om ~U" ,F1o,ThF.·~,n;Q_l O"Ifi ..... it'lltJlr.--~fiH~'~

~ F}. ~l.:J.~~[:.l.~'J ,I:~"'~ ~ ... ~~~~:J "..,n~~~~~~lJJa~

l<U8:JlY' diiiferen't ootB oJ ,ti~rIlC!"(l]M'Y' Bm·t~mloo eould 001 et\'L~'!lhtoo from the :h~,~, 'r~~-~e and edLuea~io~ d~f£lWhu.tilfn da'ta.., The ~i1fn:plest :posflih]e If.>eit wBS ,el~o~ ~

'ri}:>I, ....... .i!i]w ~ ;I. h.i!i, ~;i'!loII,'n'::Ol ,nt r. .. ,'b~: ,..iI:'k!i'I';b . ..,~,iIoi'io'!lU~; ,~n..J1 "_llo.:..ir, ';:,ori'U~ [',~I:!i. no Ol! ",,~'~..,~,~ l-~~",~.,.ll t;i'"ilr lo!'i,~""'b, ~-~~,!!,~ ~ ~ '\1- ,.; wLiO ~~Q 'v.I~ \!liD ~1I~!.i~ II. ~tJl"" ~ Q Y ~Jl!oll LQ~ ~w ~--'~J. O~ ~:!t"\J..""~~ !.';~y ~Vr.!. IWLt3IIvl::~,

'tr~et ~n"th~ ~l]lp,]~.a'Th~ lLtse'01 means ~,,~b'!t'i~'IiI~ iU'tuit~v~ a:p'~l. I~, aiiiJitiou!, ,th.e:y p"~, hi,g':bJly 'i1)Qrr.e'[~~ witsi '~'b~ :~~d"ip;~ Qf' the djjstr,ibu.tiQiElJ~~ wbieh ha.v-e 'been, '!ilii!edJ sUsl}essfuILy :in Unea;r and 'q,Utad[',m.tJj~ regressions 0'Jii ,cljur,a:bleg goodJs

'IL· ( ~'..,,,,~" [.],. - .111 . • ~ - 'd'

~)wm.e:r[Slil.p' '~m:. l1Lit:rn,berg2 _)." The sq,li!breu., terms w.e:[l13 reqiLiil'reu, 'iI\o pro~i-e

,degree£! or :£Feedom 8.clJei;}~te to a.l[-o,vf a. Jre&sUnable: oom:par,iaun wIth t:JIe 'beta. ,[)1iofiiJe~, o'btai~ed fh)~, the prlucl(pall eomponent-regression i8;na~seB\., T<~}JliB,t ,tJhe ,chsf!lica.], ,[\eg~];n'n, used iEl~:

-- J' ,.51: ~" ~1

y~,:= ,~~ + c~.·:~ + .c~i:.: +, c~~~ + l:'t~ + ~~.,

Onte: tM iP~iI"1lC'~ of (1.7) wnw est~:m~kdj' ,th~ J~TQdJcl.ed vnlue of y wacS caJeu~, mU)d. :[01' ,e-a¢b '0'£ ,R; range: oi' vn1!iji~ '0'[ r Qi'llLd "R,,, T~ :p:rem.c1.lj,iJ),ng wen: eitE~n!pMedJ witJlri. Mie :profi'ie: ot' t~ h~fu, eoei]ci~rub obttN'fi.i.ett {-rom tke prinelpal 00 m:p!]ne:ni'bs--, :regressi.o1Ii a;iOJll.Jlysis •

.A :(KreH'minatt 'WONl aID(H!lt the: ,c:o:m.pm:liliU(fi of: ~be two Ei.m'Matical J(10ood.'uea is In ardeiF s't '~hlB :poilJi1i't. The {iO:JiJ.iplei'tie :pr.i.:ruli:psl cO'm[I)o,n,en)tf!l-.iieg-ref,;!aiolil. arwlys'ia oo.'iOJ,fmi'ilJ:$ a. 'tot~l of ,21 i'ree :parattiiethem W~]M are '00, be et!t.lm.8.'ood. :f1'"trm 'tJ18 cla'm (i.e.i, t,b,e. '~otal iilJ!n~llbe:-t oJ ill-tIQiffiE.'i and e(bl~atii.®f~l c'~a'~f1es; mlnus tbe 'tW'Q '~inea.r' -= ....... ,~:"':'.~fi;ii'Ii~, milll .... f~~,.iit~~ 6 Cidl.li: ...... r:), :. ,rl'l.,o!'i, ~'lu,6l'iI· .... al ilffi;iltI:'LI«'C'i:"'iil bssed .i"i:'[l: """'~'m"'"'~'I''W'

~~liJ~~IiJ.~'JUI~~ ~ "e~I)~~1;:$1.1 ILZI~ L.~~ ,_.. G. ,l~1i:iI ~ D~ ~'-aIO~ II,; ~;I!i~~VU .. ~IJ.I; 'V~_ ~~~~~"'.~-J

S!tatwtl~ of '~'b(l; d9t~ledJ elass :inf'O:[,ma't,i.QU 'OO[ij:~ai'tiJ3 'ollly f'Qur' pa'ram~,te:r$. U h's Pilacly been noted t~t the m,ct'h~d Qf $~m~['b:Q;ti~'n is, predetermlned m, the ~'lassiea.O[ ['~,~,['~Ss10Ji.i and ]S lW't 'tI:i~, be d.~~clJ from the: da)te. :in 't'he primHJlc.., pal e@'m:pml.~rut'S-:[I~~.eD. proa~dJ~. If the e®effi,ci~nt 0] &rer.Ji.L1~]ij;e:tio:n (R2)w-e['e a,dopted, as, tJre ctiter,lon rOoY the, rtil.a;tive, sneeess of ,the tw{~' a:pp.roae'hes, the ~su1t would seem to be: bj~!rlJ in EEI;VOr of tlh.e pn:ndi[l).B1 cdimJ~O[[]j~;tifts :Bn311yaist

~ - - ~ "

~iElJ~: It ,E3,\p~~ 't¢l' bye: ,tb~ h\'['g,-er :IIfU!mt!er oJ de,g:r'~s af :freedo[]'[" :Bu!t this W'A!

of' Ullinkin.g aMul the: p-oo'tilerm :;S 'nut a.pprotpn81te becsuse:

(t. C{HllJliQ'n.e'!~iti_~ wi1l be delleted, S~I tha't somei o:f the re,~re~sio:[jJs, ID!, thIs ,ca:t~go:r,:Y'

,! ]b :~~iieii~ ~" 1,I,'!J!iIW. ,~i~ '~!J; Eii'l,'i,'~' ~, [il!!!rt~ ;;;p'~rn.jli1Ii:liLif! tif. 'oJi:iJmJ!.Me. iIillo!i mjii;ili!i,:W"Id ~'" !!;~~~!fd, ,di:!~!!i" 'WztD.II oE ~ilie!aml!l :IIill:! eJtI~liili'!!rIl !twirl, ti:lll!< 'Diiiiiil dil"" il'lIilL !J.H; ~ ,~t-!.oM' ~i:I '~ba :iiI!'ll~~OOl! i!i1li~~ ,oi' tJIj.;!l ~I,;jfi.mi. ,(l~' 'tbo :iltIl!.ilm. ,!I:i"Dr mill!l~ ti:iii2m., ,~~'ilr. ,~tl!' iliwif. ilt.il.tUi~1.'ai ,iI.ni ,iIlli:lilily oomlM.e.d, ii!';.llI, mW! :fIfIftlill~l'" I!i!) "H)i;! djffe::"'i~'Iio:i~' :Iii pm~20; fLo:rb ~iil~~.

w:in OO!ll1!ilSJ:fi f'il)ill or e!'!le[[]:, :f{!lw~r lPa:r~m~k[',~, ~ndJ,

~'" the 't.:lwO'le~iMl aclJ.y,a:nmg,e of '~he principal c@mp~'ne[(lts.-:['Ie:,g,r.es.si\on teeib .. , niqu.~ Qveit' ,ei~sieaU [netlwclJE1 lies In, litiS greate.[" £1iciHty' fiOir' ha;ndJ~]ng :1Q;'I:'g:e and M,~1illy iu.'~.el'~))f.i;,too ,oots of' da,ta, direGt~y""_-witMut the ~ern; 1'01' ~gi{ying, ,swm;~nairi'~atiJ~1fi :methodJa, '~ml a, P'f~On: grot~.iOJds.

'Th~: '(}Q:~:pa'~!,~ ~ ~'MrefQrel '~aseclJ (ifi tie use: 'Glf iboth 'te~,q.u:es :['(ii Qi ,['e.lativ~ly

oU!IJl8jtmaF' 'rn'lIin.n~~,:: ~.,i[j'iI!"ilI;"';;i"i.1J;:'; ~'10'11 ,~;L.~l '''';~~l~--'J.l..---, ~. ~---- -~----- ;1:,,:,,,,,,;- ,- " ,., .. ], .'"

~~ • ~_ oP.!! ~~, _ "!J, ~ """,I!.! v~e ,~...._.., II!.U'fLI , •. J!'!.-lim~iJ.i' U,J, :Ii.fee paraIT!i.ellit:l:~ are rnf:il.i'e.:y ,a,n,

em.booiIliie'Dit- of' ,th~ d~ffe~~oo bettweerl Ule, :fi.eld~; ,t)£ a.:vp:liea'b:iJity OF UiJI::: 'two, a;~nn.nf.leles. In i'ruet" ,t'h.G': eemnsrisons ,iLi,"t'1'lI ~ii!i[i,oliCi;..iI1 1:~1! .i'I!~,",-,~.'.., hr' '~-]lbl , .. :1IOj, .... i, .. u'l ... eoh-

it'",l"'""U~ ., ,~ , ,¥y ,11""'~ ~ ..... ~~ ""'" ~ ~!J~~ .... IJI! oIi~ iLiR V .... ;Ii. v., \i. ~ "',~~I'J\lilUn, 1I.;t;~

[~iq,ll.'e~, Bi-.i1J.ilJe ii.iOJ, the: p~Illt, witnn~~ t~ n~tll,l!re of' ~hel dam,r~' wei a'~ 8. oodiy of eoo,n.Q,mlo tJre0WY' and piie,,':!om ~M'!P:i:r]cal wQ::r,k~ ~1lJ;~h" iru;fi~t~d wl~t S-£lli)!11M,}' measllt're~ sRQuld 'be chosen. 'Th1s ls a.'1Ii. o.d:V~Il,t~, 'tba.'t is n~,t :e.1'wa"ys, POO-S,"" ert't iriJ ,e:gpl«m'bGlry B~atistjoo'[ reBeB'r'~.

Th .l~'l'iooipa;~ ,Cmnpo:nentiS and: Their' Corrit.aU~ ~h ~ ~i.e. cT'~!iJb.lle ill gfi1i'""ef:!l th.e f:Itl:;~11,ple ,DleMrn,f. isttR'iOJdud dev~'rl:.i.o:li.i.S~ ~nd the lo~ngs :tn~mlo!:: 'fOI' 2[} Ilrin.cipal oonlp'or§u~nitl~ obtained f'[\(ti'ID the~ set ,dlI 23- ]ode:peruie!D!t 'vnbJ~. The: '~!l_nk ;(?if Z' 'W~ :~nr bu~ Qwi~: 'tM' irtts e,xtnmely i$IiJl!iJJ[ e[g'e:IIi.'~·alue)1 the '~t, oorn.po:n~t e©,~d, ~~"t 00, €;v's.lu:9.tecll 'l)EliC~'l!IfOO, of ,r~)lmdifn8 ,errors tlfiGiilfilLulared, In ,the COnlpili,~T. pro-, ~. ][-!DJ, &~cii.t~o~, '00 t]l~ k~il,(Hn~,r tch l~it. row of tJle mble gives ~he eige;nvriJ,ue

(-·,4"-'"1)-' ~ia'W with ,nQ,n,'J.l.. '-";i"i.'ln'll'l""'!).:;r~,ji, rl'lI,-.l':j; ItAfrn--n""'-' ,,",~-, -·"'fF- -OI_,;I;/ ,." 'i..,:".4-, ,- I

'-'.iliil!. _ . ~~ _ ,~ __ ~ _ ~!WI;ZJi'_!' .......... ~~~yV~~~'", •. ilJ"" ~ __ ~~.::IiI'J~, .... T t:""ne.llu,I ~ I.I'c:lo'n'"een,

'llie: '~nrn~i!iJ 'Qo:m."Il"iCii~nts; ,ood de'Iru)M,ent '~-,w'bi~f:!l QI'e '~\rof:le --ted ,. -- "[', - ble: ~:.

,r'~· iIf~ - ,-' ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~~~ ~~,.~. ,:t-""'"' .... ~.. v . ~ . . J" ,. v.. ~ .. 1~. . . ,!I.]i1 :fiL. 'Ji

dong 'mltb 'TI'h~ et~]lL~'~dJ. en"o¥s, qf 'the ,ga.~ IMS and, 'thel ooe:_li.cienlTI of de1eirlni]1fi.-

-tii'DIl for eseh [I~~,~ssi\o[lJ."

The :m,st 'two, ~m.po.Tiilme a~QlUlt for 'mAlst 'Cl,f '~he '!l:e1at:iO';n~jjlJ oolt,we«m '~h.e '~l~ a;nd i'is ~n aU mOtir c~s. 'T:h~ also 'ex~'Ia"in s@'m~ ~56 ~[', 'ce'r.i!t of t:~ '"a~,~:i:~:t.inn af tll.e ,i'~S 'the:mse1.v;es. As emm be iSfe[], ,From. T'$b]~ 1 ~ the: first 'mQ'ro.po:ll~]lt :~ '[!;e:g,a-

, .. ,._] ] ..:11...l· --- ;1;,1... ~ =- ·'d· ~il_ L _.. _ .. --JI 'b. - 'b d - - - ... ~; -- . - .. - 'iL._~l __ , d--- '",jl_" ,~,

!!.I .• ~%ZY oau~u on, '''-'.Btl ,mt .~ Ul~e'EIle a.n!:..il! ,u;tgl:l, if lllC!bwDIl var.:J!B;itLI1~.t B;iIl pos1l.;.~'V·Cly

,ro~OOd with t;be, 'low BM heigh :in!o®'me and lluw' eclJuca;ltio-n ym.ab'k;~" O~UiL1,_ :PO:t"~~T.iilf.} u-um bel" ~wo is PM'I,tii~v-ely loadled oil. '~'be :mi'dcll~e: eeJUJoo-ti.on ,mrnd To'w to 'row.df~ iinoorn~ eh~'~oos and 'llegat~veJ!y losded Cfm the b.'igh aM, ]~'w ed,ill~t10[l and hi",i:h, ineol1J1e; ',,:a;'riQble~- 'Tel!efwi~i_m~ ;O.:"--"rsh-~'p.· if3 '-:6O'rullr-~"~:' ,~-~tedl 'w, 'fuh.e 'first

_ ,~~ . •..•.. ~~_~. ~. . .\1, .. 'It ~ ... truL . "" n.e. ~ .. 1, .. .nv;e .. !]~'"el,y ,re ... . . .,'

{lQ,:mTlil"io-n;n!Yi;,~ (I;~.;I 'lVi;;:;i'fi'!l~ly' ,"u,1u""".d ~2" ;i-'ll.:; ,i."iU,"i;i¥~;~ ur~~-'! ;l;iL.'i~'i:> ,- :fiil'"l~..!I- - - -- ~ ;1;.,""", ,._

,~ ,1;""" • ......,... ~ "..~!LQ ,1?"''''G1~''' '!,'~'. ~'''''"-o!,'t;, I!>V ~ ~ !i!"''O.!,,-,".!l.\U, 0 [u ~I]I;",", WvU u seem ....v ,In

le['~ wi,t]), t'h~ :pm'PQTtl();U m thoel h~I!J:''h ,edJl!.lJi3i~:tiflJl 'u~. ilF'Oj' the othelt- GlA'sse8~, the eff~~Jb of 'Mle ,tw'Q eQ:m,])Q~ts, nm iTi o~!pm~i'tl!~l dil'oo~i.aiil~~ :ma'king onl]y '~h.e mcst 'fi:Ci,~tiO"US :inte['~re:"t3ti.Qns p~ssib]e, 'SbuHar 'eOO1dita!o~s, held f:~~ 't.h~ o,t'be:r: ,aepe:nldef.Ji!t vi.\rija:bre~. It :iB t]rer~~['~ d~,~bl~ to bnn:d'~'rIn, the; results 'b3~k :iruoo 'OOm"])l:l3 iO,f thel 2i',6 '00, JiJ.1alk:e mu[',e ,d:e:fi]i1i~Jjve: ~(),nelusi.iJm~ posSiih;[~"

B~ J1~Um~s !fw fJu:~ '~i:r:ud V~ariat.eB,,, The "bd~ CO~mClc[l!,tB ,ud th.e~ 'wsm'lloo-e().'VQ'r,:ialiLee matr..i.oos l\~iFe M'['!JJliIl\t1.ire~ for eael oi' ,the ,[[~pen.d.eill!.t, vnna.tLles :a.eOOlil:ing to eq,mttlefif:i; 01.2) 8'tlJ.d (Ut)", Fo'iliffi" i~ts ,a,f !b~~E3J8 W~I'~: 'dl,btain.e~ i.'Qr each st;llIdy in Q,l\d\eiC: to assess '~he de~t fif d~l~tmg difj.'eI'€fit cQ,hdi.o~ lOt prhlci,pal OO~]},P9l1e1 ts. Selee,ti'O[l. of' '~'he Icomponenta, 'te, be ~nclJ.ijjded in ei!Ldh, iWI; W,~

acoo:mTiri~'jii..-dl bv ~'''I:'\lIim]iYi'iIl'''-'~iYi.- ;Nf' ''''hCi; 'rifl,"'; ..... ,/"" -----h~~ 'L. ~"6 ,0!1-- ;i'j,- ---~---~\.,,--- f"_"c ... :h-·-

_ ',' ~ 'lir' ~" ,,';if ~~ ~- b!!~,"!1."\.!1""', ""', ll.l~ .... ~-Gi'Q~JV ',I"" W, .:b I,il. ~ an r;:;::tp.l!,r;:;SS.IMIil v'll U.· e,

mgmfi:fi,c&n,ee: oi' ,th~ 'eot'r.ela'tio:n ootwee>D. ea~-h P'riiIH:']~!l\] 'OO~PQ~m1t; oind ,the ~ iSpelJtive &:pe-n~~T!lt 'va;r~bk:" ~ f:~'lll¥ wts ,~ '~~cll ~,]JQ~ oornpqL"LetlltW win), :mtles, of at l~ 2~, 1~ i~ rl,iIld 00 (t.he ]~t'kr '.;;lQ;n.dilljiqn, :i:lcllrn'i!t:~, ~11 n~e Iwm:p'Q:~[!ts 'regar.d[@s.e of th@]r C(i~'~Qtion 'with the dejP9f:tde.;~t v;!Lrl'~:bte)." '1'he :!loou1!ti'wg

'i!YXPI.O[il:A:1'{)rRY fnA:!t:[fi1,T,rcAL KE$EA..:QC.n

~ I eo'_"~, e;; ;,0.; ~ .... ' .::;. ........ E! ..... ,"; <;t;

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all! 20 99",6, M~ al!!d, Mea III II 'M'n:M, ~l.t~d, O.ciy

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group of' IS ~ 'Q~ :23 ooeffi;(;ietllta eac'b 'W. ~ ~ Ew PI"E!SiBll!!tatio~, ib,Ui~ some 'of the resw,ts. ,Me given,:m T-abl1e 3; aud ll'l,igure 1-

SU.DlIilnMy _"tis~tieB' 8,'(e; p:re5ented i~ TAble 3. 'The I~t-hand portiun of ,th~ 'tib1e iid!J.Q:WiS thel uUJnoor ,et e-Gmpo:~[JJ~ w:b.Qse, ootte'lat.iIii!iiri ,wirtb '1J m.e.~, '~he

,_ : I , .... '~:""''''::'''''''"'. ,;Ii'h~ :n: ...... ni1irj,~ ... Il!, of the " ',';.",. ,.,. of' .i.~_-! ... ,~'L&,l. ~;r;, ... ,"_" .... I.a:.~..l 'ltiI'-"',mmao Il.i"U~~ 11."-,",....,, \I 1i:'1 il'"~V,"''"'~ ~.. ~ ~ ~ ~ VQI'l!lD:i!le8 ~ ,if D lI!utIi',," ;IIiJ O"'VIo:.IIoI.U,~

for 'by ,these oo,m:po:~n'~, -(~ '¢ellt 'v!I.l'ia.meel, the oaEll!inient 0f d~ter,miDa'~iGn

f· .&:;L ~ • (. 'Dn .], .i.'IL,,_ 'f' ,&:.'1..:" ,,~ ..ll~,_..ll ..:I,~ • ,,~~ 'f "iL 'L~

or l~~ ,regns~w:n.cii,:~i.~ s'lJi.q ..:ne average, Q, l~liiIi:l ,eWti.n.~"liIi ~VIa~na,!Q~ ~:u!e ;~ta,

....... ~.g:: .' __ ~""'l.'. l' ,&:.'L,~ ,. " ....... .'1' +."u·]· • (~'\

~'CW[j;ts '~i~llig lr,O,:rn 't~ne :pl:'m.n~ oomP0~e'n~reg,I'4la8lQ,n ,~y:SJa: • J'~l'

The ~t 'qrDn,ti~f plI"O,vid.es a. Simp!l!e &\UIl'IDJIU'Y of' ,th-e P~~Q[JJ, 'o:f \he ~ib

l ......... i, ,.,;j:.,";i;o" ·t~ , ~, ... ,;:; ...... 'l ... '~'I .. " ... ..iII, ,"'iii.. ' ~ ,"', " ', .. f' ,··t '~h "~ ~.. .., .d' .i.L~ ,oll"~, ~ .... ,.j ...-:.wllnS\~~ 1 ' 'WGC "-'0, ''''''-I ""'W"-'i! M ~e ::!q,Q~ ,rool~ il)I, . ~ a~, UI, lP.LI.e Ui!l1\,~'1)]18&

IWem$te of' :z.jt. Twa' ms~llh, emerg;e :from, the [~t-himd peNiaD. cd Table 3,::

l:j\ rnio:Bt of tille ,e;xn]a'Ila'WfV' TWlw r' Q] to: rreiJft>sslefim; is ,mfi~ak,&ted 'iclj 8" reIDB,.

\J. ..> .=." .. ~~~~ .. ~- .. ~~ri1 l~ _ _. ~ _~~.. . ... , .•. l. .. l , ...

'~ive:ly small rU.lJmb~n" 'Gf :prliD.'c~pal COtm.:l;JO:lieillits ~ wdl, (Ii) ~'he a',ve~l stauda't''(l ler:ro:~, of the be:la c"ffieien,ts go Up riililar.piy ,M 't'he DiUlm~ of plIi'neipallw!1t .. PGnem,ts, i~ t'be re,g,r~~ioll is 1FU:'feiiSed.. The ut poiin,'t bas, alread_:y been noted

Ol ." to, 'iI" bl ;fl) T'L~, d "'111 ~,~ :.:I~ d l' h ..... alo

lin 'CO;llnootlQ:n WItH J1B .e ,~.' ne ,l!Ieeo-n: ' wL~ !,jitil CGflS~re~, !lil(U'1tU~,'~ ~ ~"W.

The ;~Ud! Iiaes in, iFl.gure 1 a. tel pr';6!j]ie~, of the be,t$ eooffici~,ts, calculQkd f'~l" Ute :regil'~fJl1I!B de.i~Qt;ed, by (rf) :i1t Table S. A.ccol'd:mg 'w 1'be Wlevisi.en, pro:&le" traGta ,.lft s, ,re~&Uvely hlgh, hlcirlenoe oaf ~a'mij~ witib. ,~mlGmeB' aSOi/e, :UOOO :pef yeAti te.ilded, to M,W ]Oi~eT t.e]c~i.ou sat~tifin8 t.h&l!], th.ese 'with, ,8 ~Mge:r :V!XF' portirul. o:f lo.w 'ill¢o:m.e fa;rnme~. Sinc~ 't.heee are essentm'lly :f;€~n, r~'!ldt4~ :the :lnco:~e ,~~ts mi~ be iuter,pret:ed. as :ii the ed!~~a'~ful!J, v:~nahles were 'beld, een~,taflit 8;"t th.eir mescn vallues. :F,'or' :inMme CQ~nt, it, a;ppeMS, that In,·,

g~ In. ,e~~e8tibnal :lJittlaiF.fmenlt ,Me ~~1\a.t~d w]~h. hi.i,,(:~~~d oo,lfjv,~<j@':n saturlil;Jt;iu]l u:p ltilLt[[ tJi,e, h'~g]lefi!t edut~tifji[], il.ass i~ reached, when, ~'~ reLa.tio:[];S"biip

,', ~.;I ]011 •• 'b ]l'~d ., ..... ,~., d'" oL,,,"" til· " " - "','1.

:liI3 :i'e'\r,~OO. 'll' Utm,~ ~(iI rsea ,I/tl ~ ''':~!iiI.,,~~ ace(Yt,C liilig '11JU' " i.e arguInernm g['VeiI"l m we

hat ,[)~ ,®l 'this p,a,per ~ ,too 'oole,,,d]skt~ p!t"@!.nHe~ ,[OCMsetfJ!.tecl. ~~~ jE'ilrt A of If]igure 1 ·~'re bssed en qnlv ,t'hroo, de~~ 'O;F :f'roodlli't"L SIDOO o~'~"", ,~'hroo~ ndn,eiYWi.l eors-

S_l. ,- J •• ~-~ "~-~~ .~~~.~ ~~ ·ec!"!'~ .. w "~ ~~ •• "._ "=--::l='1 - .. " ~ .. .l-r.~~L: . ~F,~_ ..

p41ei1J:w were U'~iHz.OO it"! 't.:h, uwle:dyif1Rg ro,g!\~i0f~1. ~,rl!~;t 1:1:1, wiU, be ooerll, ~'h8t these

""~~- .~,tuu'r""iI'"il.;]: "'...:!II p_1':'t,'ro,l1i(l;t'ib'~~: 'wi-F:ch, ,., b_r.13.n: fiI'b~'o[il~l1I'i~~ ,;t~ --: .... , .. 1..~1 [o<i~'~ ~';';~!"o[j; 1i ''-';:;i:IfJ:'"l:I(ii(iiI" A'~~. 'I..::.~n,lJlIII.II/IQ"}WI~-_!'!'9 f.III~~ ..... ~. [_"_]~.E~Q~'~~ ." ~I.!~,~ lW!~v~ v.~lU~_ .. --=-- .. tI"U. loll ul~.l lIL~ v.~.:JII:"wQII~[ ll_,~~ ~~Q 'U~

,~,-~ d ~'rIQ;_-m®jV'e'r ~ that tb.c,y' w.c, [lJO't g~,a'tJ'!o1 decte(]j, wh.en '~'he In~;m~e-I" of dea'ree:_~

a.lil ',' ~ - .. ~ .~,' - .. ,~ ,,,.. - ~ - :e""' ........ ,J." ..... ~ - ~~-,- . ~~ ~~-.~ ~-~.~ -.~ .. ~ .

0'1' f:ree.df)~, i5, £n~~d. by ~ aclklliti@on 'of rf!.'or'!2 p~nd,pal 'eQ'lll.]JQ~Dl,ta.

F~o,m t'h~ 'be-till p['o~e :fo:r refrU,~jerJliOO:["s, it, ,mpp::!l:l"S ,t'h!llt ~f'or @iJ3JiJ.]OO'ltwn held 'CQll!S~u"t~ Inerementa :m :rnjd~m'if1,ge M the' :ineome diMbii.],tion :proclJuue: ,d:iBptQ-, po:niQ:~te iaereases hi p'e[ieeiili,t~[ is.a;tur,a.ti'o[IJ" (On,~e ,a:geJIiJ.~ 'M:l::is :findiag: 1 iii, :iiLOt, ,Sl1Osta'[ltialJiy alre:-red. 'by thel additinll,o:f mo:-re print~,pai co:tTJ.'l,ponen!!trs.) The :f1f!licl.,~

• f' ,jl t- 'Ii ., '~ " ., - 1... " - ,', 1..':: l: :m~, :~,(}F. ei1l!iJJ!~' .lam M~ more IiiflMJO.Y' :i!n, nne w:i!tt.u:, '~'K!p~tatr.©neG O'wners.l.iIli,p[ 01

'oof!r,ige[.ro~~, ~n~~s :ra,p,idly s;t the ]ovreJi" e:m~, of ,the ednclIltci'O[IJ, df:str:ihuMun, ~.d! then. Ievels till at ·the h:iper' lef'!le~~ whem-e ,a3i,'lW8tifj,n li3, virtu'l]y :100' per OO'lII,t. 'R,QlJJ,ghlly 'Ute same :pa:ttbetr:!t ]fij, obsenr,ed :fO'1' 'tihel ed.ue:JI1lioD. variables 1.n ,tihiBl OO-fi.i,~ heat >!lasel;: Ute beta., profilel fh:8-t rises ooar,ply' oct 'tilfl.eilll tEfve~ .off. lIr'h,.el

.ii._~11 11.~~~ ~'~-"~. ~ ,~'~~",. '-li- 'i ~ - '11,...1' .. ':1' ~. ~~ '-, : .~ f r

e;e'IlW!:llJ! lre8.!W'"]nJllo[~le ,l'"€w"I!.I01'l~~I,P[ =8; ,mom re.00)1_\~b!!~1 '!I,i"i;3{J;"iJ, IuS, eO'lru~.wrps:J ~. ~,Q~,

ref'EigemW"ts,r ~1![I"c.e '~~,ta, ~~i!t'!t~, a 1'rig'h ~~.ddE;'l!'OO af llo~" :i~e@'~J~ f~i]ies, exJ;Jb~:t

~ ~'.~~, '111\lo_'o!LJ' (iio[i,·tu;t+o[i; "t ""'iffi;;;:!, but tilllo "'""[lJ...1i6n",1U' ':'iI'iil' -i-li..~ ';nrn.fiilf;, ,+-""" ['.i', •• r;; o\"I,h o. TIiI'! .. k a';j., the

vem:v Ji ..... H '''''L"o' .. ..., O"~""c~~o=;l';i' __ "~~"" ._~.,.. W_)ir!!'>i'~"'.l "'v.-~ ~~, ,~._"",: '9 [1,1"" ~ ~'i?_. 'I.'!!'.I?"""' ..... ' .. _."" ~ ~

t~ to fOl:l.l~' 'uhQ,us~11!d dQlIoc ~1~ ~ ~tl!U ,~ :nQtiooable;"

:ErlJj],Q~;tl~~((~ is 'lhel lfioot i~pql'~alJJ.t deWrmi~~'rJj'jt o:i dl,'~'eUing m1J~t '@;'i'l~r~wcl!in.g> There 3]B~1 SOO m£! '00 00 s.o:ma wt!i.dl~r~;c:y "fur QVr~Terowdlng to iDlcre~: ~.~;:m;g:: w.ith ~'he, pru~®'riiQ~, of: 'hQl;~Slliho]d!s "in tJ;J.e: hl,~r :in,~Q:rfi~ b:[',a.rik~:t8.J 'Which ii3, ~O'fihi.\I'Y b) '~Fiiirl.eoo.'ltkms. It wil be seem, howevceI' f. thaiu, the i3ame result i;g Qbtam.ed w']uh,

,~- - [-'!

~'he ,cl:a;ssi.Q~ ]~t·aqiJJa.:reB' me~'hiDd'J is!] t'he &.tt~,:ma[y 'e8tiL'iiOt, be a1.!tr-,i,bl!l:ted ~®< tsh.e

;e " • .'~ . - - - .ji.. :T- iL.. ~.. :'"', ... ,...., ... :1 ~1i ~ *!' . r. . 'f' <11 .. . ". iG] in '''''h ',,"W to

use 0',1; prmeipa, eornponents, .ne ia~lltlI.',C~[ Ofi!C{Ii!L~8.",laIJl 0: ~Ji~i8 :p'ro~L(iI ~~ [",~::a [!,I_ .''0 ~ ~.

'~~ t.b.Qusawi dOUH income FHiii;g'e :ffi d;ue tiO' t;b;e trela'tii,ve1y la~;e 'niil,n~b3iF. Qi' ;i.~ ~ - sd ] t- 'i." ~- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ .. ~ .. - - ~~~M 'Leo. ~ ",]1" - . , ,","~..:a 1).~J" ~lLJ,,""*'!h T discusOO~iPG![li$.1ii.~ ~.'. m 'I!L'IB :rnsooBiMu[J: ... iRa W,U!L Diel 'lUil;OOU~ ~J~;LOI!pJ." I:' ~!I! I,L.:)2=-~~_~_~~ , __

• . .~~ fo'iL. '"'~ - ~ -~. -~ ""', ~- - --~- - . _. -~ . -~ ,- ~ -~'"lb,. -~.'~[ b'" ,. oil, ':n'..,1 nntii~ :alter

Slo.ll w: [I,;!U.~ 'p:r.mGilPfllL 'Mrn.po:nen~:re,~I.o:Cl ,(eli,u~'l~ W~.L _e 'pO:i!J~[p!O'", ;eQ, ~ .~. ,~: ~.~

tbe clM~~aJ, [,~slJJlts fme: e~'ni3ideFed.

[.n'.. . .", '.~~. 'i " " ;~.a::l. ,~,.i..~ C'1r --~~ ... ,~: :D'Ati .. ,~~...i~~.:;or; ... l:~~ ra",,0iti.c;.r.,:n-F:cs O[ 'riE'dJ'mssl!tm

I.,-j,i)i'nPiJf~~fl: ~~n, ,~;r~ , !li1l&.s~C'tN 1~-~~ i$'!J"oIl'P..-v~\I? ,n,~ ... ,,,,,~.:;o. '10""'0 ~ !!-QI!~"'-~. ~'~ ,.""'tI . _.'

F' ,cD. ,-,f the ,~. ,-~ - II- ~- it 'a --:~a.b'I.eil 'liJnfi~ 'ru;a~t~l mean, income: :a;![H:1l, edJll~mtf®'n

~Q,r ~., 0 ... e,pen en, Von, ".F"-" ~_ ~~_~ ~ ~ ~ '. ~~ __

, r 'd'" ,;j.,t.. ,.'-: - ~ ,;" ~,-- -(ii, '-, ~~,,;:,.<..-.;:; :ii'cj,~,--:Ti;o[j;'iL.",,:,"]1 bv els i,']1;'!i.c~,1' ]r.:-r;;,l;'!t stllua;OO$" Th€: :l'e81l1l!ts are

a,1ilJ IW!Lfl;][, I3qUa:rea W VJi,':; '!:'o,",.Ii.I~ ..... ~Y _, J '_'!!Mgg~ ~ ~ ~ ~_. ...,. ~_ _ _ ~. ~

:~ii'bed, :in- "J,'a'b~.el 4, and s,l,nn'rnari~~d, ][l, the rlght-FUUil.'d parl.i~,]1 fif T,Bibl\e 8,. 'The ~'l:la'OOd 'OOW'ID!S a;re, :b'i:g'bJ.y S~~[i!mmm.t :In all ~asea~ ,88 tj'.(I,'D, be, ifi!et'!J;"iJ, f~®(ID the, P t~fllOO f:®r Ule, "dJdit]oll, i@f 'th0M: two k['m;S t~, ,t'h.e ,[ieg.fe~lo'n" S~noo ibbe;y w.a:[',~ 'mgh[y oor-~b~tled w1th m~n ][leQ'me, anirlJ, ed,iJ.i.M:rnio:n.~ it i~ ril~t, s1!Il"pHeli:og thait ,t'~ 'cOOffie:ie'l!'~ for 'th~ ]~tte:r. 'f~, ehanged. Il"ii:Bdredl,y ,Mtd ~dl,uood, 1[1 ,~igl~i~'~ane@ by '~hel ad.dit<ion, oJ the S'q1!JBiOOd'WlrnJ;s t.~ ,t'h~ :regl'€i3Biun,,, T~re m~ se'~~ of' :re~HJU;$ b; gelleli:lMly OO~i~~fjR'~ Y!.iitih 'tha,t, :r~PQrted, 'by .De:mbeF.g [2] ill 'b~ stc,ud.y' '0'£ te'L(!o-

• • :.-._,L=~

-:-~.q;h''i.:n O'W.![1~.!iJjilli"

V~iIiY~~ ~ . . ..~ iIr

WiL,:11.: , .. ,1-.=, ,,,"_~.ct:::. ,oL,;.. ,~,E .~I~""'~·.r c ~ii'lloi'ii,iL:lii'io,r.~;" It\,;:,; ,iIl'o[j;'iitl'~,'Il!' '~,j]j'ri7l'''''~ tliif;:v ,('I,;r .... smaUer tJlI.a;n

!!:.W,!,~ !!.I1!L!i;:' ~!LJ!m~liI.~ iD1 1iJ!;'~F nliL.~9W ..... ]l .,.... "" ,lo ... ~ ~~,~/!ii'~ ~ "";iI' !i!!"- "" _

4,li..~.;- ... ,,'iL..jl ~ '!' .. ~.dI 'k-:-~. U(ii~iI'"ili:t ''''h'''" l1i"'l·"".;-,;i!~'~ o\"I""llii.TWl'fi.L€:.niB'-re~essl.o:liI. TIe~'I.1e.,

~ QiIli$!! GIU l:i8:Jiilll::'!.i ~y ua.~~~~ ll,i 'Iii' !t<'i." -~.!N~.l"""':a. 'MV~~"-ll?'''' _ Q""" ":I.

'TIlls is, 'trllie: eV6t1 whell'e 'thel :~'~_'_nlltl~!" 0:1' ;J}i!),m:!()Q[]}~fi.i.fu 113, '['!eG:u.,eeclJ 'ta, two Oir ~hroo. H~nc~ it mBy be OODil}ludeclJ '~'h3't '~'he; iJi~st f~;w pri.ncipal ,oom.:po:iiernm ,(l(m;tai~

TAB.J!.IE '!l. S.IMPLE :R~EGR-m~~'ON llE~UL"l'.eI (~ r,mru'!JP:l f·OO'· roo.e~,~'~ :~:p. :P!l!i;li;!illt:he.;:!e.~·]

AnZ:Z:;::S

--.~.

:7:'~~iWi.s;~M

'~r~" =: -~) •. ~3l6· '"*" .r7.lU' - .~2~9Jl!1 +, ,.070B ~ .~nlm3Ej

r~ .. :7.9.). {4 ... 4,4) (W.l:2). ~4.rll3}.

TV :a: -+ ,4~f.) ~ .]00·1 + .M2E (,=2i], .sn (~2. :a;rj],)

.11," = ,+~" .6~, -, fL 02l.f + O. Gl9E

(~. 25) (Z~" 8,7)

,1ie.rJ'l

11 - 4J .. iIiI"1' ,+ ~' !"''-;''''!/' - 'i' '~'7~"j;1'!i! .I~ 1~'~1B' ~ . M.J'~ ,1Il'f,

, ,~,~~ ~ ~~~--.t, 1JJ.!.,!L[lj~ lr '!'.III, !!~ ..... ~~

(ii",ei$) ('9,$!t) (,5.4.0) (3,,00)

Jl' ., -,0 "S5.5 + OJ,:~'~l + ®.~~l:IE'

0,9.690) rn "i1)

'O:u~lGroiwdi7,i.f.

OC '"'" ill" 600 '·1 til" 041 t - "O!lDUSII ,= rO • 11.3,E' +- 0_ 004{~,8~

('0.84,1 (0.28) {20,; H} (1:2 ,,::1)-

o.C - r~.,~;3:~ +, r~.@~JU ,= Q,046-E.

un "'."'rl "' ... ml ~I'I'~

'I. \}.' 1i'~Jl It"";t~~ ~,~ ~j.

fn,'~J"'e infox~.tia'ti.on a)hQut c~h Q:f tbie d.e.pendle:mt v81r,i_a.'bles UIa:ll. iJ}()· th~ ~~~~ns of'

,j:.'iI... d~-"+" "b .. ·..!II th .' T!Il,,_ 11' b ~ 4:,'L. ·'nf· .

'l"'~e.; a~1'l, U.!U)llS an,u' '. 'ell(' B.ql!l~S. '·.lite ,oo.l1c.,~~~fiul'.iJl a. ' .. ou.t· tne :J! ' ,!l;:1'lmla"hQn, 'eo:n~·

'tent Qf 'l~~ !t'f~€iht'i.S can ll!B: re:fin.~,d ij '~'h-ei~ir' ooe:m~ietLlbf5 af dererrmma,'t[o:n. ,E!"r,e. OO~~-· ~'rred. w~~'h 'UlOf1ie Qbh,Jinoo b.y W$li.lll:~: '(l'll1y' '~'he ,tWo l1:e31.\ p-ri:ml.'onpaJ '~O:I]l:pQ:ru~n.~, in e~'b CM'-t. The ,R~:for tme:-tw,o, oom'PQ~Jlit:[..e:gI€8~ioiIiB.'(}lm be ealm:wl~'W by taki!Lllg ttl~ s.um of'squa;lies. 01 tire :orst; h"(J' g8.11lm8iS im. reaclli row of' T~b[i;l: :2; the.y Q'it'C ,,53.,~, ,,:@·1, .40, ,8[D.ld ,;;~·1,t. re~p.ect~v~'»" G~t;r-al h~a\ti1~: iE the onll:Y' depr::nden,t

~. ,~'L'~ f ll..';' h"'it... 41 .,. ~' "'1 .. ..-. ,..l 1., .;1..... ,.1l.-"" :. u.;

v~U!Le'Q:[' W,~!l.lcn Li!:lei Lr'Yio"(Fi)O'm[pon.erut r'e.~:r;Q"~OO '.:M s 'w ao liJIt:: ~·:r t~.m:n. l,;'.Ii.~

I • ~'I • iL!Il,,_ ~'I a; 'b ,. Jill ..

!C.! 8Sa~dilill n~gre8$10ilJ1, on ~Ji~e mfi~S ,w:OIl,e, as (laiD. 'I!J~ '~!2:1l .Y 'OOLnpQ;r-;I!tlg~JiiiB num ... ,

be.~ ,g[YiBn above wlth Uu:me ID. 'the last ,eulrunn of. Table .1.

The. 'i'ii~flttial ['eJrreB!lJD eurvas ,j]o'r..l'I rn1~re:iil in Fi!ITI~lT'F' 1 T'~, j,flI-r Ineoma 'WiB't!;«li

~ '~'. ,~. - .• • ~~' ~ . _1:- ., N.I' _ ' !'I'! ~!=}, Q~~' .~ .. ". I, •.. . I 'I;;:i-'-!.__ OIl, '," ~ .:..~ ~,!.j! • ~.v."i!iiiI ~~ .....

eEllr~u]at,ecll by BubsHt;U't~i[l!g th~ (Koo'I[l.ai'B valusa of' :1n(l@..IU~ :hroo equatio,n U7)

'J': ~ )1. ..

]f~~. L Be1to,I C~~etei:ii,'~ PtO'ID.e.'!i ;Cin.d! C~:u:sslCi:d Rcg:reaiii.oa Slit UrtI.Hail, ,EIl:fii:mll'w,·' V~"8B! o-f' :h~~ i!!;~d :&tirlP~t:.es, 'o-f .s~;tgI'J!oti;iJ(o.

'z ,Ij! .,1
9 'la,
~J t~
,<
U
H; 'I..:I!
WI '16 il ~ i ~ I I' r ~ II Ii I I i'

iI)!' +.iiIi +!i ,oj!oi2 +T~;f~ -10, ,~'~~ "'8 ,--4 0 +C'* .8 'f!ol:;!: +It; He

~ ~ II'!

~'~Ol -'~g, -112 -.:1Ii ~,

iU,A Ii~}

F'Ia!. 2. Tw Silgm& CotI!fi.de!i:oo Lim.i'~ en ,Bct-!; :r,~uiiILejj."=-TtJJl)v,i~tHii.~: ,A. 3 .P:ciD:c:IlPa1! 'Ctim~ ]'!!i;iFJ~11!,'~ B. 14' ,:Pdi!!!!ci.:p~ CQ'm~D:eD,~.

There is. ,tJ.\ goad :reD.OO'-EL f'o.r. thi.s, :r,~~ul.~,:;: &:$ OOm.TW\UGin.~ B:[,'~ ,add~dl, to the I'{)~s-

_ [r-~ 0-'''11'

i31011l, ]im.ear· ffi5tri'f}tioIiB '(JoEl Hie betas :Ri''e remaved without a '~cm~:m'f".]B'W:'n.te: d:eeooflJ1a ~~ll ~. Sh~ae as f9.lx 8S Ute Jff,in,eipal oomptJ:nelttli"t&regFess.mmi. teehnique i~

'~"m""'['~'t:,~d t'h~,:,"'" '~i;'!'?r.~ ~.~'~A-~'t" ,....:iit'1l"'~,;:;ii'I~! .;<j ~,_~--;"",_,c l' '1·T"i..tAl~R'U'''''''''',j(j1 Ci; 1t.. ~~'Il'~, ,";h:l 1l::-;':i;~\Ci; "-'"!..I'" '!AI, ""'''' ~ I~~ _"'~ ,I!,~~'I.!~ W'!)""'-!'J= .... ~it-"~=~.~.'''' "-'10 ,;I:-'1"l1,""M ,Hil'-"l.l1lp"~""'JJb ""'QiIJI' ..... .'1.! !U, e go'!)""

''''''''''''~U~.;t_, ' .. _l).. .... if:i 'Ii~'n!'I!'i'~rijlt"ll!'i.n'Ili"","+"'d', loss r.":'iI~'I~ .. ~, !Fl<'IC~~,]"'. ~;.-~ "", ''"'''d';~''''!~.",~ ~:!! :6","'h", u*.~,"",'"ff ,t"J!''V\_~~ ,'t}"",,!!.lIi~ '!.'I- ~"'V'"""':t-"""_.ll.'Z'A'~, "VD'Ji ,hl'.'!.-IIc'l_; !l'!:ll'Z'lI!I_.~ JJn a.o JI.'I:i, , .... ,_,IIIL'U',11 .... :1 '!:;,:;] hu.lo;.UIi!L~~

ef~ti'e--iencY". Thi~ shO'W~ 'lha)t~ Qthew Whlrq~ he:itilg eq~a.l~. it i~ :po~si'b:~e '00 ,get, fwlf}ve

il"loo~il2A- 1!'i. ... ~:!L~'DI'.,""Q' 'f:'Il 'tJ1\"£I' ~":;:;~~'" "', '~:~ ~""'ri;i'>''',",d' i;],~,~'~"'.::!;nCi;J>HI~ ,~ll"'iI,.."""i~,~1:- ,;L]~±I-:-" oilIr.~lll Ci;'I~"'" l-"~ ~'!.<, ~ Q;;'W, ~ DW"" ""~ l~'!:> I!J,",I~ ~~ ",,",,-oil!~,,,,,,,,,!II!:f,, ~yIU~.t1aru~~ ~11![~ ......... gn ~nu(Y ~"r'!:; aLfl'i.l'

M.@['{!; highly eGl['['~]~ood, a.~~o:n,~: 'them~lv:eSr (~\nd ~ groU!p 0:.(:' rnQ;re 'th:a~ m betas is. 'peneetIy 'oo1]iD.e!l!]',.) ill' CQu,~, Ul"e ''W'-ar.iQ:iU!~, '~!m pwfiles, :r~E{:~ ~o projil?e .. tjiDIlS of the orlgjilii11A. ya.da-ves inw cl!['IQirent $ub~p~q:.s~ $Q tha;t ,th~:y are nut

L.~," ... .11 • 'I '" .. -'J,~ 'l'.:f ..l·'h .11 _ '-h ..1_, .a' • ...i"'" _ - _ t,.. J:,

en'lilii.~y' eqm'~,,:a~£~!fi"ll' qjilli8ll1Mw.es. ,:,-, e:,ve:i:._; _ .e-J:eB;$,f. t- e tregtee 0.... ]~[]!itlty Il.!el~ween

,the l'u'O'Dect.iD1lli ~s filt.rnng.

The ,e:m!PImca1 ['esea'ooh reported lin t111-18 [pB!pe[" W,!I,'S ~11TlA;:d, ~t finmn~ w!~th~.!' l'rom. t'he i5Rm€ set ;j][ dataJ, the :pr,in{!!lpal ~omIPGne[l'its.reg~pn Q'n:alysi$ of oo:m:pl~ d.ata can :~',re1d '~,ts U.at Me: {:(I!m.pa.m.b1e -with those :froni. tmdlti!Jna], :l'!E(gre~8~,():M tlfllaJiyL9.1s tlla.t 'U~~; wellbacoorptedJ. Ei~,nnma;ry sta,t.iBM'iJ~" 1m add~;ti.@~~.,

",'I;F'I f'lff: ... """ ro'" ~in""Io'<!I~I.::!1!n.g I~,[hl!'i; nnmbiU'!I-! ".;,1: .... ....,'m:t'rl;,';!Io'i;~~'I!tIl;:,; '~'IW'I ,'1 ,~ii' ,J:,!"'u =llU'.-.::.,:m~ "'~"'I!{; ", .. , 'll ~""' ,,",~e"_"l!.!- v,~ "'_I;.<-""~~ ,'I.;~ _yo_~~, ~~~ vii. V'i.l'~_.t-'.,A~~~~ 'IlQ ',...."crotl .I.!L.I. 'Ull.!...:: .r'!:;~.,",flQ!Lv~_c 11,i ....

~'n ... ]!.wl,1!i: ,I;] .... ,nv" ~"b...",': ;n;~ nl'1l,f" ,i:'I~Jrfi;!I't!g]'t~' 'lJloi'"iir,~·1=;~" ... ~ wi,,"'h '~"'hI!'i;":lli'i1n'iiNF;'~""'ilo'i;t' -:-:u''';U~I1:..]6 wa ill, ~ ""_~L~~~ 9~l"l~- ~ l~~_.~~ ~,~ _ ~ ~ [').l!) V . ---"'.J ].v.~ .'!'QB1I~~ ~_ ~!WI 1!J.~~ y~~."."~_~i".l~t .. ~ VD~l"l-~!JJ ~ ww YIi~

,axartliu.~d ~m:pi!J;'leaJ[y. T~m f:'Qilowi!IJJg ~[t1!~ri.ll cQln.ch~()'ns wet.e ,obm'inedJ =:

Q;, The p.t~nd!paJ rorn.p'O:Iii€n.ts-~,g;t~(l;]11 ~~iI,l!Uo$ ~, :in ~b$l.an'tiQl a~['oo~Jl.t with t~ o'bt,Qhted. :fronl ['e,gr{!;~.1l~,n.s (In ,t'h~ 'tracl$'1 ~~.eQn :inli;l~~e and edtl~rutio[l, '[€:ve'~ andJ. 't'he..i['· isq.UlBr,es in. a1mo~jt ,aJ,[ 0.1' 'Ul.e 'ca'S{:S st~dl~d} ,R'S Jiil.d!ged lJ1 oo:nn:p.arin:g: tlle sltape.s '0] tIile 'OOita p,ftt.:i]oo :trom ,th.e :tarme:r wifeJJ ..

'·~l'lf"l ''-'':''r''_'~Ci;] '~~HliSC[~""-~ '",-lll'\!~-"::'.:ii, ... 'Ll,.:' .... ~.,,;;~']I ~ ~.":,~ '''''h~ ]""t'_oi""ii<' ~r'l"1 ~ oj. :~9; : _ ~ ~.:ii'" .-."''' ~

II.;_,,", ..,.,....~ ~~'i'I' ""Q,~ ~'"'i.I'.~~" c!Zl M.I:"'-'IlI v!U't;:t:I,~J.I.Ii:'IiJi. !L,I!, )~~ liJ iIilJ ,p l'.:!~. .uR", lp.J' m..ilJciI! "" ....... l

r.h'liII;A't1IS;'-;:~":"'M'~ '~·bPl ~£Iil±l.i"f'i1I , .... l' In ...... l ... m±l1 'Dln"']l '~,.)]'~"~DI'~-:ili"l!tJI '~, :n; .... ,'i'i; oi-b.i"l oLiCi;t' ':'r~'I1"111''''i''''t1I ~~L~~~"o?i ~ ~IJVMl~ ~ 'Q ~l.L~'Y. .... I!J.~ ~lL ~~V~._,~v. R~~ ~L~~li!rV= ~,~o!'''''L''~ ,"=-'Q fl~ ..... ~o'l,i v=

'klvrl~· o;f' the ~Qur' depan,ikn,t, V3'l',ia.bJe:s would 00 ,wbO'Ia't 't.he ~U;i.'m .. -el a~, Ul.ooo c;i!bt1Unoo 'by' tradi,tiQ~,s:J m:ea'~lntQ~gb. t~ de~1 Q£ !5llb}I1Wti'vity :00'"

q_uh~d :~ hi~['·. ".

b" C~iRc~J.lt$ G[ .dJ~~nllnQtbmn :f0;l' t111~ prlrlcl~!lJ. '~..Qm.po:~~n.~r.c~ssio:n !i;na.]y~~ _ ,a1most nJw~ bl:g'h.er 'U:um, 't'h;mre ['0[" t~ :r.egr{:sstQ[l.~, U:PQD, ,t'h.~ 'ilc-r,B.clsr means ,Bmd. t'b.€jr s:q}m~,s\" WhH.e the d'i:ff,~"['JJ,eeg ,acre ]tot ]~ge, 't'h.e pcltteipal ,eo:mpo:~en.ta"l\\~,~¢!,n. te~ll[JJlqtie yieMled 't'he :[n;rg:er R~:;l while en'!l!ployi'lllg [e;wer regr~,rki tll~fI. ,th.eJ:r fjlaasieaJJ com~ler[)iM'ifi·a, iill. ,tLlnee aU/.tt of 'tne f our 'C-a:ooS;.

c. On.Dy ,th{)s~ {lOiw.pQn~~.t~ tJh~,t a;~ s.t[''O.n:gly ~'la.'ood to ,th..-el depe;liidim,t va'd.ac~, bles e~ll 'be i~el'Ud:ed :h~, '~'he pr,m~iJ~.a'[ ~...oln:pQ'n,:eln.ts-r.egttessi.o:1l an31yi1~~ if'~, be'trt" pmfiii.e:!!. Q'r{:, ,t~, be ~dJ. ~~ t~ h~!Jili$ 'fo:r ooncluifGl·n$ ,aJbou,t :!!,tl;'u.~t'ur~. The ~JfJW!l ,o! {1,QnlPQ:Iii:en~ llQt sc r,e'La,4IDd esused 'th~ oot~ :pri.],fi1fl; to bec@;me, UJI1i.b~ and, dim.e~~, to ill't.eJtP.[',e;t,~ altboug~ ,th..~ j§j~n.e~a;l ish~p~ 01' the 'profi[e 'b Rot i::lubstarntffil],;Y' ailte!l1eOJ. 'Ph€ ,~:~at6t nliJ[lIiJ.~[,' 'dlt priinc:i,pal ,ea[[Jtpo['JJe:Iii~ '00 be iiliellilid,eclJ wn.s fID,md l~y tr.~l and error,

Tihese resul~ ,IN'e ]mLporte,nt 'b'*SUBe: the"y s'ih.ow t.hat p~nci:paJj, ,oor.npoAe;ntSl:repassio:n tmttJ!ysils il':U Read. to reason'b[e :resuili:aij. even, im !ldfi,tiAtlnns w:h-e(f"e ,the :htpm data are ldg1l1,Y- e.o]UneH,,, Iif ·thooret]c;i11l!y Jl'PP[lopiia'te Elum;mary ~ab']eB

f~i[" tke originM ~·tll} :~,t 'had ~ot boon .a\v;mmble~ '~he r.e:suil.ts, :r.elpo;r-OOdl .aibo.,.-.e :W!i:ght 'have beelil. nood to d.e:fi[t~ :sueb. (1" s~t of ~~ iatie9..f'h.e: nel.'f' vari~ble;~ w{lfu]d

~] 1:...N. 'I1,:i 1'1..,'.... 'ij .t_..t .' n, .t'ik___ ..] '.;L"", t. 'ik:!: I- j.:L. ·L. ;I.,,.

p:r.eSU~:~lQ~.,J:r !\.It! .~iL'.!!.I!!:~iJ.j· oorreu!a~ll,JJ. '!.nt·J:L ~.~ Q:r:.gll11Ji Vat':Ia.VdS, ror Vi"J!.i.lLC\m!i. ·1~[U.~ .. Jelta

:profil~ a.~Ined, e::d:reUie 'L"'$l]ue.s, wId1€: ·~ill.g lllfO'fe d~~re6tly' h!J.te['pIle·~llc in 't~r.ms.. Qf. the 9,~r1\ll(J;tme of. ·t'be :pw'bk;m ·t~]JJ au w.rinc.~.p.~ components, Tiwoo

;. bL n~ a, ......iI.:] 1:. d Lt.._ 1d'''", '11. -t .,3' .t 'il..~·b •

VQJ.'l!!aI' ~,s,J' 8JlM Jiy:p'utl i€:l!eS 1Li1El.-B€·. OIJl. ~[]11' ~V'QU . " ~,Il '\lttI'U JiLHi'!teI:~o:r.me!j. ~ ,aellS

:for n~q(U'l}n.t ;!1;tat~tiool a:na1(YB~"

RegF~:hJ!Ill. ~p'O:([ :PI'iIwi:pal,co'[ll]JOll.€lDlJta .a.ppe.ars, to he: WQ:r~hwbl],e d'lilr.m.g 'U~,e ~plom.oory ph:Bs.ea. Q:f ~lnpmooJl r;e~Mrih. The met~ ~.plQ·r'~Hi in tmg pa:p6(t': ,~ uoofi1l1l·becaus.e·:: (i) t.hey pe.:rmi't l~pid 'oalmilllti.o'il of t.he eQ:l'.rellf!?tiQns., betwe.:en ·t~ d,epe:~iI.tHlt ·~~adn.b1e: ~:niiill ~~b. of: t.h.e C(HfLJU){f}eldg.~ ~·[idl. (lii) ,th~J l'.e&~ 't'be re.~:~iou re_!utlt;ij, book to' the ·pl'Q,JreetiQDls. '~'f tllo. o'l'igirml iindepen,den·t 'v,ans)bles iiELt'O t'lh.:e ~pOOe S p.1!\ll ned. lb.y the CQ]roiiP~a,ell'ts. il1tJud1ed :in th€~ g.h"'{)~1. regre~~io.l:1" ]i:n~t.hermoT€;., the, c,ruu:8lCtensti.cs of' 'th.e, be'ti.\~ ea .... bel ·tt;[':Bred thn;)'~lll. d;iff:e:t"tI\tlt S)ulb.~paee.s l].iIliokJ\y awl 'ea'sHy ~ w.itJlout the need to l'et:Bll.o,rUJIDte.: any :Rri[kc'ipal oom.:pollein,t8" ~JIl'1[is :flm[b.,][]j.~y· ]~. l'lliry ii[JJ!l.po:l't;g~'lJt in e~pla['a·ibUiir.Y q~~'!['!lh.,

'W' . '~~"] .... d ~ 0 0 l:' 'L'- ~ 0 .~ . .r.

,: . .!!J-L,iEl mO!it ~t!UUL B :l"o:r summ.iIl'rimg ,a, gr.ou:p o;~ varmll.!.~es in. ~ sp.a~, or

]1'.~ . ..l~: "" 'I 1. E ~_,~ .'·r "'II'..~: rI'_~, " ,it!.,... ,,~l • bl'

smtl~'1i UJ!~"MU~iI:lSl-Q.111 :ttlVOl"V8 m. J..Qcss or :ul!Lfirm.n.b.cmj ~Ll~ :~bol'J..a-!.~gy.· :Da !J.iLiLi!:l]l ,u;eBlil',~.Jie;.

'1:!TI!.._ ''iL~ b' If· 1:..1l· L ~b11 .• ".:1._, ... " ]~. h t'l!.,,~

"''' .me:re ~J:m 'lN~l-G: ~t (!iii: Va];.l1,0,1€~ l'!:i ~,lmWO!i:'1I!.8:,'.Le ]n, :iL~ or:~gl!~1l. :.:!)}'.r.:m·· wr e, lWl"

'OOWUl.Be' the :!!l·U11nOO·F. of ;.!ajriabla.g ls too, Sl',ea'~ :fo:l' aV~lilB,JbI~, ~nsJy~fi~ t'I!le.iGhedS(j. ibe·,

..Ji.' .,. j',;. • ].~.r. • f' ..;L.')l.. & 1', ". d' f • ;Ii. ~

Mllae U.L :01 iJiwt!G~ UL1111.~Mlty r. .ti).:Jf , :O.r. gy Ol\.~~f· ['e~ SGiii.SQm~ .1 .. 11),':. {!!~ ~!'!J:rrll[~l)JIf:jza'itriiO l[]]

n, d 'h 11." ;I.~:' 'I! "L. 1b.~ •.• 'I..Jl b 11'" ·I~.J 10 •

11.fj neoesmry, all, ·t,e; 'I,]UJij quaau:mn.lHl!LQW ~ilJ 1lIJ:i.&w.~·.e a~iI;i~':~:r,rp~]eI~~'Ijlj,. ~'Rrll'iil:a'n~

ZiftUon ,!]f the linccnn~ and 'OOlW8tnO[l di!!!tr.iJhl!l.tion va.ritlbI~ used ~D ·this mudy wM aooomp~tm.ed. by e-~·cu]~t<J.:n.g '~ clil'It(r;ilt:mJiun means Q:nd tb.e'ir. tSq]wa~ for aEt,c,h. >Cl( t~he ·tt;i.".~ets i [r!L tbm ~~~, t'!l:ll.e hUQ:r~I;ti}o·n COt, rerl't· ,of the orlgi:na.I !l;e!~ Vr!a:~ Qo1!1~~~l1 ~rrto· a. par:ticul.a.r ·subsptic.e OF dl!:m~m!ri('J\tl f:(j·ltrlr .• But the b$Sls. for suan-

• .t~: '" .. ~,ll i~u ' • • 1" -~ ;I.".;L..-.,' .' .... "'~

:mB:1iLZ9."-L{l!ll. lS :Jl0'!IJ .WJiways Quv1.OU:S a pY.'H'H"-l.,. ' .. TEJm.wQ:n]l3~·mn w !p'r!L:r!Lc;]J~ CQ[I1i.~

p'on~:m:ts. bo~~ tb,a. ,t\;.~-a .siI:vB:J1u\'g.ea. disamme.d ;earU~J":in t'bitl pa.l~(f: 0) the eom:Pfi'nents ;IlJre Q:rthQ,go'M-]; .~llow.ing efi~S E!x.p,].Uirati,¢m 'Q.f :!llter.:n.ahi.wl s.ubs.PftreB in

'!"'t' . 'h·...:I1 .,.I.~ 110 • 'I!-.lll ! .. oe.... ." .il'il., -, 11 d' t' 0') b

lte.m.:I.on iIi!4!' t,'f!: '!U'~l;MB:n~Il'", v~nl.!iJ'f.e'S ·\teClillUf· ]!Dl. .~ iSaiDITLpJll!li sp~·e~ anc ... n.1 efi·c,u.

oom:po:ne:at c.!4!'n.t~ns. ~ ma~fi1j.1il'f[:~ ~nlQu!.i't of' im,orm.80ti.(lin..1 oon~i~teut 1\1· h being

] ~ .,~I .j"1- ··L." ]f t'l;., _, .11" '''oI-'h .. ,I- .J & .ill t

ijj!i::~,CO:r:[\B\ afie.i!.I!. Wl!.t!Lli. ·tJLliC ·~JW\i!tOills.: cnes, : . ,.lIte OO'tte.;l!i!i,\ti~iIl. "PP.!li'~·: 'u!lte Ut!:pe:iliU'f(C1l .

v.~ri\aMe is wred.,~ ·tb~ cdW·r.iQl~ fo:l:' ~'~a"iliflg '!Jo:mlP~m.eiIJit·s. in the re:.g1'eS"gjon., the

'IN. .'... 'I!.,:~ h 'h . ,:tI._ "",'I',.. '1:..11 J:. ii." ., ,,~...1i' 1 .

9JUi0SlPflOO :!,Jl'IUU W'w,'!] '. t';e, !L:R®~n[J;{!:;n" Y~~!l.H~ are 'lliil), L..)Ie p.tQ.J eel,'ll~~. :lS,J el(!-OO~ m.

pad ti)'n, ·nlle biliiis of: tts proximity' w th$ 'l'!,~E:t!OO" 'U1~t is ·t.o, be ];mteclJicted or O'x~ p'ialine.d.

A. m.mjo:r proh[e.m. ]J[b Q.r-d.~'t'l3I'Y pnlDti3l:pe:l ~iLl:[Dp~n~[j:b Q'fi.calysis., ia, '00 give: sub-

,;"~ ....... A~·u·",, :m.,"" ... ·n: ... •· .... ,cr ·f· .... , .... ~~ ,....~'IlVIo ~.o!'oII'·I"r .. ' ~.~ .. "'"""". t~'·iI,. ·_·v .~ ;D\ .. '''''!o been d· ';';;'100' ·~·r~I~.l1 ·l~;t]·""n·

~l:rfIll.lUo-.L 'I!!L.. ~'~". ~L:I~ l~~ ~J1..~ ~!I~I~VM' l.1,~ "~ MYCw, i!,~..., Uw ~ 11;1 ~ ....... " __jL_r-J .. , ."l"~ u~11 .~., IAJ."

"'. d ... 'iL. ••. • - - oJ J!,~J:, 4, iI..~ ." d

OO:m.~Jii[l:e.~· mrt~J! re~ss!l.(JI'L; l't LS Mooa;a"Y to Ii.uenroiJ! .. y ~u.il ,c.o:m.PO~e.l1tS. 111 ,OJ?'' .er·

,to giive mea'll:in.g to 'th~l ["l!lig~'~~(lJn. ~~.t:ie:lits. 1m the p:~,~~t >e8!OO ·tb.~JS problem

.. -'!' 1~~1 b~' " .... '.... ... ]'b m~ 01-, ... iL..;I.... .....iZ.

~ pm,mJ ,Y O;!!ll~l'e\un~, Y' re.~ie.Wnll;g: 'l~li'e re,g!i:ie&Si!on. F'e'SU tao .... ~~ "liO' 'IUI~_~e wrnm UI.

the. ·origiul ret of imd~'l;Joe[jJ.d~1d l'·~h[e~. ~ :pto.iie.ried. i!ll',~© ,th~ ,SUlm:m~lIj!" L8.U'b~ S'p.a.~+

Th~ :m~~~ ~xpl{fff.d ~.i!L this, paWl" ,B;lTe ]l,o~· :in.Wnded '00 'be s'iLib&t,it.li'~S. 'for' the estah[ilshw. flri:l~d.pd~ (!if Lf:iitta~Us:l!~r}Bl illlt':ere:lloo ::: h,yPQ't~~is IbtlildiiJJ.g ~l1d test· ing, The a;urth~J!" bows. in ;ad.vanile. ·tiLl' an eha'rg;es ,~r ~JiCJ~ifig m...oosWleme:n;t 'wit,h-

J:. iL. __ . b - 'L.' .... ~~ t:'1l.." . '" • 'h' ] ,j".. f ... jl

iDtJ:'lJ' 'TIi'~ry ~ ':y!~ ~u~)·:~.'ts. 'tJ1ci:)!,l' .' ,il~f.], ].B DeOOB~·· in. ,t, {:, {1:;Q,1', ·Y' sta~Ut:~ .ell" em.p1rrie.D;l[

~~Cib." IIy]othe_oos m8.l}r be di~vo.lQp.oo after eertaln :Irl.nds. ,0tf !~ln~l!:~'ry l'~iat.[ea, u''ij'e been ffilg:~ood.iby· looking. ~t ua;ta and relati~lg them. tt~, :f~~.m~!IltB .or £'heoo:y". rrhasa 'hy'p'Qt,~i!j~S shrliw.d ·then be t~d ~:PQ~ a fresh sa:rnp[e~, W.hi]e etl!p.p]~OOd by nlQl'@ p'F.em.se ·te~'b.ni.q:aef;j !I·t Q, late.r ista-ge o.f :reBe.a~h, the abi]ity w, mptdJ,y' i!\nd eon.y~:niernUy ,exp[o'i.'e :rell;;;J( roillS~bi:p.s 'ibetl~r'ijcn V's.\r.iahles iili a e~)][griLe:X' iSe:1J, of ,clla-i~~ 00 lJ be of ,gr~Ed irnp©,Ffta]],~e. :t1'OA 'th'9.~t,i'eQ.]. end tmll:pjri~a.]. w~lk ·on m!f;chQ.dls for unb:m!i,gUng (iomp,lex :~tiQfi~lbips by mea,ne of :H.md.ble staotistJeaJl

..::Ie ..~ . .j,!: t-h d· d ll...~,. .L·1.... ~.~ ~ ~I

!tJOOOOloo!!iIJI~!:h :m.Q,~nw,!D!g .' '.e o'll,es : " ·~8m.l:,Me'·· ~ .~~['e]. l!S· iIlrg;e~l]ibLJ' i1Je~u.

:il\'E!EI'''IlH;E.NCE:@

[i.] '&:blil.e:notJiii, T", '~i' ",; l'n~!"~4u:~i~fi ~ ,M~~~i'IJ.a1'~ &·~,wi.t.U(!ru; ,J :!'W~;~.~., :N"8W' 'y'ili(i!-k:: J'o]),[jj W"~e;y ~"d. Sou, I:n.t:.1 mili8.

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f3,j F~!fi;lI!ki a. E.~ :Kue!h.n,i' A, . .l.r Hd MDI.!!s:F.f W" F,." qua'i'.'J;:H1!!tir.IB Tei:il.'nill'!2u,e! ,it, M·att'~~~~:O ,AM~1I'~~. B'om!eiw~J.II;)~\, III~J'ii)lJiEl:; :I~i(lnr.:,·m D. l!r'iii'lm., I!IiI..c~'1 1'9152.

[[~1 Hadl~.y.. G." Li:noor .dJ'.gt':~'a.. ~d~ns'~ );1~~iimiUfSi3t~.~ AdilijO'Jil~ W~'le'y [~l:dJIl,~'MiI!i!g, ClJf"mpany, 1'9-61.

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1[6j JoHlndo:ii:f J"I Boo.oomei:rk M~t,~. N'ow Yol"lIo;:: MeGlI.a,w·alF~ H()ok Co.:m:pa:ny·, 1963. ·P. 161.

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