FX DAILY REPORT

WEDNESDAY 13 APRIL 2011

Bell FX Currency Outlook
The Australian Dollar experienced somewhat rare selling pressure yesterday following ongoing concerns of the Japanese nuclear crisis and European sovereign debt.
Australia: The Japanese government has raised the severity of the nuclear incident level to 7 from 5, equivalent to the level of the Chernobyl disaster. Yesterday’s ride for the AUD was lower, it fell to USD 1.0389 from its high above 1.0500, as commodities and equities were sold. Then overnight, the AUD bounced back to above 1.0520 level before yet another wave off selling in commodities saw the AUD fall again to the mid 1.0450’s where it is currently trading. Local news yesterday centred on the NAB Business Survey for March, which saw a solid bounce, with the index coming in at 9 from the previous -2 in February. Base metals lost ground overnight with nickel down 3.6%, lead down 4.6%, copper down 2.3%, and ally down 1.1%. Gold fell 1.1% to be trading at US$1,453.60 per ounce while crude oil was down 3.6% overnight trading at US $106.25 a barrel. Importantly too, a report from the International Energy Agency said oil prices above $100 a barrel were hurting the global economy and this can dampen the AUD we feel. Today there are various reports being released, we expect the AUD to range trade for the moment and RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speaks in New York tonight. Majors: Equity markets came under selling pressure overnight with the Dow ending 118 points lower, the S&P down 10 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. EUR/USD traded to a 15-month high overnight on reports China were buyers of the EUR. Comments from a Chinese Official that China plans to buy more Spanish debt saw the EUR rally to a high of 1.4520. The US NFIB small business survey declined to 91.9 from 94.5 for March, with higher oil prices and weaker consumer confidence weighing on the index. The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 1.0% and it also increased its growth forecasts and now sees a return to capacity in the middle of 2012. The Fed releases its Beige Book tonight as well.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-11

Today’s Forecast Range

USD 1.0400 – 1.0490
Currencies AUD / USD USD / JPY EUR / USD GBP / USD NZD / USD AUD Crosses AUD / JPY AUD / EUR AUD / GBP AUD / NZD AUD / CAD AUD / CHF Australian Rates Official Cash 3 Month Bill 10 Year Bond Last 1.0440 83.55 1.4468 1.6259 0.7850 Last 87.23 0.7215 0.6415 1.3310 1.0060 0.9375 Last 4.75 4.90 5.60 Last 0.25 0.281 3.490 Last 1452.96 106.19 359.05 Last 4898 12264 5964 9555 0.283 3.585 - / + (%) -0.7 -3.4 -1.9 - / + (%) -1.5 -0.9 -1.5 -1.7 4.90 5.64 Previous High 1.0523 84.78 1.4520 1.6350 0.7885 High 89.09 0.7275 0.6456 1.3452 1.0105 0.8532 Previous Low 1.0389 83.45 1.4378 1.6227 0.7745 Low 86.88 0.7205 0.6384 1.3310 1.0005 0.9355

Economic Calendar 13 APR

AUST RBA Governor Stevens Speaks in New York AUST Westpac Consumer Confidence AUST DEWR Skilled Vacancies US Fed Beige Book Economic Survey

US Rates Fed Funds 3 Month Libor 10 Year Bond Commodities Gold (US$ / oz) Oil (US$ / bbl) CRB Index Equities ASX 200 Dow Jones FTSE Nikkei

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